WEBVTT - French 'Liz Truss Scenario' Warning, Fed Decision Day & Meloni's Challenge

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<v Speaker 1>This is the Blueberg Dab, a curate podcast available every

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<v Speaker 1>morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 1>the twelfth of June in London. I'm Caroline Hepkett.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, the French finance

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<v Speaker 2>minister warns of a Liz Trust type deck crisis if

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<v Speaker 2>Mallion Le Penn's party wins upcoming parliamentary elections.

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<v Speaker 1>Conservatives tell Bloomberg they believe there's little chance Rishi Sunak's

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<v Speaker 1>manifesto tax cuts will shift the polls.

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<v Speaker 2>Plus, as Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney's star keeps rising internationally,

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<v Speaker 2>problems lurk back home. We have a special report.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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<v Speaker 2>France's finance minister has warned that his country could face

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<v Speaker 2>a Liz Trust scenario of bond market turmoil if the

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<v Speaker 2>far right were to win this month's parliamentary elections. Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>teaba at A Baio has more.

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<v Speaker 3>Speaking at a campaign event, Bruno Lemaire suggested policies the

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<v Speaker 3>National Rally Party of Marine le Penn have supported in

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<v Speaker 3>the past, like cutting VAT or reducing the retirement a

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<v Speaker 3>could cost billions of euros. His comments follow French President

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<v Speaker 3>in Manuel Mecon's decision to call snap elections after his

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<v Speaker 3>party was trounced by La Penz in European Parliament voting

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<v Speaker 3>on Sunday. Prime Minister Gabriel Lettel and the President of

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<v Speaker 3>the National Assembly at Yale Born Puvis are both opposed

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<v Speaker 3>to the move, according to a person familiar with their thinking.

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<v Speaker 3>In London, tiwa Adubayo Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>In the UK, Rishisunak's own party took aim at his manifesto,

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<v Speaker 1>saying there is little chance that it will shift opinion polls.

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<v Speaker 1>Ahead of the fourth of July, Bloomberg was told by

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<v Speaker 1>multiple conservatives on the left to add right wings of

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<v Speaker 1>the party that their election pitch lacks game changing policies.

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<v Speaker 1>The Prime Minister had a message for skeptics at the

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<v Speaker 1>manifesto launch.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not blind to the fact that people are frustrated

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<v Speaker 4>with our party and frustrated with me. Things have not

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<v Speaker 4>always been easy and we have not got everything right.

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<v Speaker 4>Are the only party in this election with the big

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<v Speaker 4>ideas to make our country a better.

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<v Speaker 1>Live where she see. NAC's policy platform includes plans to

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<v Speaker 1>cut national insurance tax, save twelve billion pounds by cutting

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<v Speaker 1>welfare spending and a boost to defense spending.

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<v Speaker 2>Labor Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the Conservative's desperate policies

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<v Speaker 2>put the UK economy at risk.

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<v Speaker 5>If they did believe that THEIRS sums added up, if

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<v Speaker 5>they thought that they would get the all clear from

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<v Speaker 5>the Office of Budget Responsibility, they wouldn't have put these

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<v Speaker 5>plans in a manifesto. They would have put them in

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<v Speaker 5>a budget. They know their numbers don't add up.

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<v Speaker 2>Reeves will launch her rival manifesto tomorrow. It comes as

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<v Speaker 2>former Labor leader Neil Kinnock has told Bloomberg his party

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<v Speaker 2>would be wise not to overpromise on ruling out tax rises.

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<v Speaker 2>He says the party, which is widely polled to be

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<v Speaker 2>the next government, needs fiscal room for a reneuver.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg understands that the EU is poised to delay key

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<v Speaker 1>parts of global bank capital rules by a year. The

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<v Speaker 1>decision was reportedly taken to avoid putting European lenders at

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<v Speaker 1>a disadvantage to their US counterparts because of wrangling over

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<v Speaker 1>plans to make Wall Street banks hold more capital, which

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<v Speaker 1>are not yet finalized, known as Basil III. The regulations

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<v Speaker 1>are designed to prevent a repeat of the two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and eight financial crisis, but they are already running two

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<v Speaker 1>years behind schedule. The EU is due to implement the

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<v Speaker 1>rules on the first of January.

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<v Speaker 2>The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady today,

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<v Speaker 2>a decision that will come just hours after May's CPI reading.

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<v Speaker 2>The Fed will be looking for evidence that inflation is

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<v Speaker 2>still moving down towards its two percent target, but markets

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<v Speaker 2>will also be closely watching the projections for future inflation

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<v Speaker 2>as part of the dot plot here Citadel's Global Hell

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<v Speaker 2>of Rate Trading.

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<v Speaker 6>Michael DePass the focus really will be on the FMC,

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<v Speaker 6>and in particular, what does a dot plot show for

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<v Speaker 6>the number of expected cuts for the rest of this year.

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<v Speaker 6>Numbers obviously come down materially over the course of this year,

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<v Speaker 6>and the markets split between I think somewhere between one

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<v Speaker 6>and two cuts, so there'll be a little bit of

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<v Speaker 6>a reaction whatever the outcome.

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Depassas is also cautious about putting too much faith

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<v Speaker 2>in the Fed's outlook beyond this year. We'll bring you

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<v Speaker 2>the USCPI data live at one thirty pm London time

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<v Speaker 2>follow by this FED decision at seven pm with Federal

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<v Speaker 2>Reserve Charge your own powers that to speak thirty minutes later.

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<v Speaker 1>The US is considering further restrictions on China's access to

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<v Speaker 1>the chip technology used for artificial intelligence. Bloomberg has learned

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<v Speaker 1>the measures would limit the country's ability to use chip

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<v Speaker 1>architecture known as GAIT all Around, which promises to make

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<v Speaker 1>semiconductors more powerful. Companies including Nvidia and Intel are looking

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<v Speaker 1>to start using the design next year. Bloomberg's Nick Turner

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<v Speaker 1>says that these potential sanctions aren't the same as previous restrictions.

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<v Speaker 7>It's a little different than the earlier ones that really

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<v Speaker 7>kind of focused on advanced chips, which is what in

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<v Speaker 7>video cells or chip making equipment that's used to make it.

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<v Speaker 7>This is really kind of trying to go after a

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<v Speaker 7>chip architecture that's still kind of cutting edge and just

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<v Speaker 7>being commercialized now and put into chips. It has potitial

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<v Speaker 7>to make chips more powerful, and especially when they're applied

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<v Speaker 7>to task like AI.

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<v Speaker 1>Our senior technology editor Nick Turner, speaking there, President Biden

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<v Speaker 1>is also expanding restrictions on the sale of chips and

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<v Speaker 1>other technology to Russia, targeting third party sellers in China

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<v Speaker 1>and elsewhere. An announcement on that is expected today. Now

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<v Speaker 1>in a moment, we'll get more on the French election,

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<v Speaker 1>plus focus on the rise of Italy's Prime minister as

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<v Speaker 1>Georgia Maloney prepares to host the G seven leader's summit.

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<v Speaker 1>But another story that caught our ray this morning as

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<v Speaker 1>we've been thinking about the looming elections in the UK

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<v Speaker 1>and Francis is Leonel laure who's been writing about TikTok

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<v Speaker 1>and his experience on the app when he's been seeking

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<v Speaker 1>out political content.

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<v Speaker 2>So I mean it was a bit of a thought experiment,

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<v Speaker 2>I think for Lionelle. He downloaded the app, signed up.

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<v Speaker 2>First thing he looked for was Emmanuel Macron's official feed,

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<v Speaker 2>watched the video of that, and then he just let

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<v Speaker 2>the algorithm take him to whatever their suggested content was

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<v Speaker 2>after that, and he says that he took it, took

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<v Speaker 2>him down what can only be described as a very

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<v Speaker 2>putent friendly rabbit hole. The first video said in bold

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<v Speaker 2>letters that Macron had declared war on Russia by offering

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<v Speaker 2>to train military instructures in Ukraine, while others attacked him

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<v Speaker 2>for not inviting Russia to D Day ceremonies, and it

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<v Speaker 2>sort of snowballed from there in terms of how disturbing

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<v Speaker 2>the content got.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>Lionel then contacted TikTok, who said the videos that he'd

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<v Speaker 2>seen did breach their guidelines and they took them down.

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<v Speaker 2>But this is, as l points out on the piece,

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<v Speaker 2>the pressure chose, the pressure that's on the controls against

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<v Speaker 2>disinformation on a platform like this, despite the fact they

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<v Speaker 2>have thousands of people working on this, And he said

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<v Speaker 2>it would be ludicrous for us to blame just technology

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<v Speaker 2>for polarization and democracy or for misinformation, you know, which

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<v Speaker 2>has been around for a long time before social media loaded.

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<v Speaker 2>But he points to the dangers, the fact that more

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<v Speaker 2>particularly young people are getting their news from TikTok, and

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<v Speaker 2>the idea that you know, a democracy benefits from an

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<v Speaker 2>informed electrician responsible speech. It's hard to shrug it off

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<v Speaker 2>as neutral either, that there is this much disinformation flows

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<v Speaker 2>around such a popular social media and outwork.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes to do and look, it's about quantity and speed,

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<v Speaker 1>isn't it in terms of miss and disinformation. But obviously

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<v Speaker 1>in a year of such closely watched elections and so

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<v Speaker 1>many of them around the world, I think this is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be the year that is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>widely analyzed. I mean, obviously in the UK election campaign,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, you know all of the campaigning is online,

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<v Speaker 1>but it takes time actually to understand what messages are

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<v Speaker 1>hitting on social media. But it's pretty fascinating. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>even the Conservatives in the election manifesto yesterday we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about a ban or one of their pledges being a

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<v Speaker 1>ban on phones for kids in schools. So you can

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<v Speaker 1>start to see the social media impact actually an election campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, we've just given the surface of vitely now got

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<v Speaker 2>into in the piece, but well worth a look at

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<v Speaker 2>day down TikTok's disinformation rabbit hole. You'll find it at

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg dot com for it slash opinion.

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<v Speaker 6>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>The French election campaign, of course, is heating up after

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<v Speaker 1>Emanu and Macron's surprise announcement of a snap poll on

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<v Speaker 1>Sunday night. Later today, the president will officially launch his

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<v Speaker 1>party's election campaign, as the first poll indicates that he's

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<v Speaker 1>trailing the far right party of Marine Le Penn Stephen,

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<v Speaker 1>this is obviously a story that you've been following closely,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a longtime resident of France. You've looked at

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<v Speaker 1>the politics for so many years. It's been a very

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<v Speaker 1>rough start to the campaign though for President Macron's party

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<v Speaker 1>by the looks of it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, look, the announcement court almost to everyone,

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<v Speaker 2>it seems afguard, including someone in Macron's own party, and

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<v Speaker 2>they're having to get back into campaign note after a

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<v Speaker 2>particularly bruising campaign that they've had for the European elections

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<v Speaker 2>as well, and this time around many of those in

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<v Speaker 2>the party are at risk of losing their own seats

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<v Speaker 2>as well. And what we've been learning since the announcement

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<v Speaker 2>is some of the most senior figure is in the

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<v Speaker 2>Renaissance Party were opposed to the President's called to do this.

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<v Speaker 2>One source telling Bloomberg that Prime Minister Gabriel l Tale

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<v Speaker 2>and the President of the National Assembly Jael le Bron

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<v Speaker 2>Pivey were also opposed to it. Lebron Privy actually saying

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<v Speaker 2>in an interview that there were other options to calling

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<v Speaker 2>an election, looking at things like coalitions that the president

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<v Speaker 2>could have taken. One MP telling us that it was

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<v Speaker 2>like Macron sending them into battle. The first poll that

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<v Speaker 2>we've heard since the announcement won't help these things as well.

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<v Speaker 2>It puts the far out party of the national Rally

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<v Speaker 2>of Marie Leapenn on thirty five percent of the vote

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<v Speaker 2>in the first round of the election, Macron and his

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<v Speaker 2>allies on around eighteen percent. The left wing parties that

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<v Speaker 2>they all got together would have around twenty five percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the vote as well. There's a course of margin

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<v Speaker 2>of error in this as well. It's also worth remembering

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<v Speaker 2>that there's a two round election system in France, so

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<v Speaker 2>you poll the first round makes it much more difficult

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<v Speaker 2>to predict how the parties align themselves for runoffs that

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<v Speaker 2>will happen in most constituencies a week later.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, that's interesting, But it's not just MP's as you've

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned a number who are worried. It's also the markets

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<v Speaker 1>who are looking more scared. Particularly they've certainly taken fright

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<v Speaker 1>to some extent.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the selloff we've seen on Monday continued on Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 2>The yield on ten year French bonds known as oats

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<v Speaker 2>jump by as much as ten basis points. The spread

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<v Speaker 2>over German bonds the safe having in Europe widened the

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<v Speaker 2>highest level or to the widest level rather since the

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<v Speaker 2>start of the COVID nineteen pandemic. On a closing basis.

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<v Speaker 2>We saw U sell off at Italian bonds as well,

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<v Speaker 2>so that's indicating the potential risk that investors are seeing

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<v Speaker 2>affecting broader Europe Two equities down for a second day,

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<v Speaker 2>a two day decline of two point seven percent. That's

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest in a year. This is what Bruno la

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<v Speaker 2>Maier was talking about when he spoke at that event

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<v Speaker 2>in his former constituency in northern France. He says the

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<v Speaker 2>policies the National Rally Party have put forward in the past,

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<v Speaker 2>things like lowering the retirement age back to sixty in France.

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<v Speaker 2>Cutting VAT for example, would cost hundreds of billions of euros.

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<v Speaker 2>That's where he drew the comparison to Liz Truss, by

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<v Speaker 2>the way and the guild market prices here in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty two, saying a Liz trust scenario is possible. We

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<v Speaker 2>should expect to hear more of this from Macron's party

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<v Speaker 2>during this campaign as well, but now in the first

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<v Speaker 2>round or the thirtieth of June. But remember that Macron's

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<v Speaker 2>own party have struggled at fiscal consolidation as well. Were

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<v Speaker 2>expected to get the European Commissions verdict on France's public

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<v Speaker 2>finances when finance ministers meet on the nineteenth of June.

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<v Speaker 2>That's going to be a topic of discussion there as well.

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<v Speaker 2>That could come at a very bad time. The latest

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<v Speaker 2>economic forecast in the Bank of France not providing much comfort.

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<v Speaker 2>They're seeing growth this year zero point eight percent, and

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<v Speaker 2>they down graded the growth forecast for the next two

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<v Speaker 2>years as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so that on the economy of France. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>we will here for Macwan later, I mean briefly on

0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:35.600
<v Speaker 1>that the idea. He's been in power, what's seven years.

0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:40.120
<v Speaker 1>There are rumors potentially that he might step down if

0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:41.240
<v Speaker 1>the elections go badly.

0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:43.560
<v Speaker 2>This was part of the market termol we saw yesterday.

0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.079
<v Speaker 2>There was a report on one French media organization that

0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 2>he was considering stepping down if the results didn't go

0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.000
<v Speaker 2>his way. He then spoke to the FIGUREO after that

0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.880
<v Speaker 2>as well, saying that that wasn't the case. His position

0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.200
<v Speaker 2>won't be affected by the result of these elections. He

0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:59.080
<v Speaker 2>says that the institutions are clear, so is the place

0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.640
<v Speaker 2>of the president whatever for the result. He says that

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:05.080
<v Speaker 2>it's not the national rally that rights the constitution. That

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:07.040
<v Speaker 2>doesn't mean that he's not under pressure though. We may

0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:10.120
<v Speaker 2>see him face more questions like this later as well

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.240
<v Speaker 2>when he holds that press conference, and that's really his

0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.839
<v Speaker 2>position is one of the key questions being watched internationally.

0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:18.079
<v Speaker 2>If the national rally were to win this election, how

0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:21.120
<v Speaker 2>does that affect Macron's position on the international side, and

0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:23.800
<v Speaker 2>crucially within the European Union, where he's expected to play

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.199
<v Speaker 2>a leading role in the choreography that's playing as in

0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 2>Brussels over the next top jobs in the EU.

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:32.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely well. She turned our attention then to that Stephen,

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:36.000
<v Speaker 1>because the Italian Prime Minister, Georgia Maloney is preparing to

0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:40.400
<v Speaker 1>host G seven leaders in Apulia, of which Macron is

0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.240
<v Speaker 1>one of course. But while she's focusing on the international stage,

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.240
<v Speaker 1>there are problems lurking for her back home, with allies

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.680
<v Speaker 1>that she can't quite trust and an economy operating on

0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:56.840
<v Speaker 1>borrowed time. This as we speak to Italian politics correspondent

0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:01.200
<v Speaker 1>Donato Paolo Mancini, who's joining us now from Rome and

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:05.760
<v Speaker 1>who's been writing about the challenges facing Georgia Maloney, another

0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 1>key player in Europe. Good morning at Donato, Georgia Maloney,

0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 1>the forefront of international events. Tell us about what has

0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.800
<v Speaker 1>brought her to this point. I mean, now that she's

0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 1>been leader for a couple of years in Italy.

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 8>Thanks so much for having me. Good morning. So we

0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 8>actually just published a story this morning that talks about

0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 8>how she has this incredible allure and how her rising star,

0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.280
<v Speaker 8>how her star keeps rising internationally. She's getting ready to

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 8>host a D seven Leaders of Summit leaders which some

0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.640
<v Speaker 8>of leaders on which is where I am. I'm not

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:49.640
<v Speaker 8>actually in Rome. And she basically has this very strong

0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 8>reputation abroad, and she's worked really, really hard to attain it.

0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:57.120
<v Speaker 8>She's brought on board people that were highly skeptical of her,

0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:01.719
<v Speaker 8>like Macron, like Schultz. These people were intensely skeptical of

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.960
<v Speaker 8>her origins in the hard right essentially, and now she's

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:10.920
<v Speaker 8>become this very swift able, capable diplomatic operator. She's able

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:15.120
<v Speaker 8>to speak to everyone across political divides in the U.

0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:19.000
<v Speaker 8>But at the same time there are issues lourking in

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 8>the background. And the two main issues are the economy,

0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 8>which is Italy's eternal problem in a way. Italy has

0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:29.120
<v Speaker 8>an immense public debt that is projected to keep expanding.

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.800
<v Speaker 8>It has a deficit which the European Union will soon

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 8>put under the microscope, turning the attention to the dysfunctional

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 8>economy of the country. And she's surrounded by people that

0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 8>she doesn't quite trust, that she respects, but doesn't quite

0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:50.840
<v Speaker 8>trust enough to delegate to perhaps, and that has directly

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:52.760
<v Speaker 8>to do with the fact that she is a very

0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:54.920
<v Speaker 8>tribalistic politician.

0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 2>So how important is the G seven meeting for her?

0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 8>Then it's micro break essentially, I think she knows so

0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 8>Judgmentley was voted in two years ago. She had been

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.160
<v Speaker 8>in opposition for a long time, had been seen as

0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.560
<v Speaker 8>a fringe politician belonging to the hard rights. Two years ago,

0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 8>Italians catapulted her to the top of the polls made

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.800
<v Speaker 8>her Prime Minister. She is, in a way and a

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 8>figure that doesn't belong to the establishment. She is from

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 8>a working class background. She is she didn't go to university,

0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:32.800
<v Speaker 8>for example, and these are things that she works with pride.

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.800
<v Speaker 8>And the problem is that now essentially she knows that

0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 8>this kind of juncture of events is coming at her.

0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 8>You have the economy that's not going well in the

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 8>European Union that will soon turn its attention to what

0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 8>he's doing with the money, and so she needs all

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 8>the good will she can muster, and she essentially needs

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.640
<v Speaker 8>the G seven to kind of cement this reputation as

0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 8>a swift diplomatic operator, was able to speak to everyone

0:15:56.840 --> 0:16:01.360
<v Speaker 8>and who can be trusted essentially, because if difficult political

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.920
<v Speaker 8>decisions are coming down the line, and that's seen as

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:08.240
<v Speaker 8>essentially a certainty from the sources that we've spoken to,

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:10.520
<v Speaker 8>then she will need a lot of leeway to keep

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.920
<v Speaker 8>both her voters happy but her allies happy as well.

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:17.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean it's easy to see the sort of

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:22.040
<v Speaker 1>the parallels between France and Italy, or the comparisons between

0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Georgia Maloney and potentially Marine Lapin about whether you know,

0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.760
<v Speaker 1>a far right leader can moderate and can operate in government.

0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean in terms of Italy specifically, though, some of

0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the issues that you're talking about about debt and leadership

0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.120
<v Speaker 1>and the role within Europe and those aren't those aren't new.

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:43.280
<v Speaker 8>No, those aren't too luckily new. That's a very good observation.

0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:44.040
<v Speaker 5>I Mean.

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:47.320
<v Speaker 8>There's one thing to say, which is they think the

0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 8>judgment only kind of has softened her stance on many things.

0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:55.120
<v Speaker 8>She's become an orthodox in foreign policy. She is completely

0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 8>mainstream for certain things. So I think government has softened her.

0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.960
<v Speaker 8>There was another figure that was as charismatic as her,

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.399
<v Speaker 8>whose main I mean, there were several headaches for this person,

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 8>and it's Severe Bodle Scorni, the late Severe Bootlescornie who

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:11.359
<v Speaker 8>founded fust to Italia back in the nineties and his

0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:15.240
<v Speaker 8>government ended abruptly in twenty eleven because of debt. Now,

0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:18.679
<v Speaker 8>to be completely clear and to be sure, we're not

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.879
<v Speaker 8>in the same situation, Italy has stabilized its debt. It

0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:27.320
<v Speaker 8>stabilized the spread, which is a differential with German sovereign debt.

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:30.720
<v Speaker 8>Essentially that gives investors a measure of how sustainable it

0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:33.560
<v Speaker 8>is in the long term. But the problems are still

0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 8>the same. The structural issues within Italy in its economy

0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:40.200
<v Speaker 8>are still the same, and it seems like every leader

0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:44.200
<v Speaker 8>that surpasses the two year harmark at some point has

0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:47.520
<v Speaker 8>to deal with them. And so what Jorjaminally is trying

0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:48.920
<v Speaker 8>to do now, she's trying to kind of use the

0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:51.520
<v Speaker 8>strategy that she's used to kind of soften her stance

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:55.240
<v Speaker 8>and diplomatic issues on foreign policy by saying, well, the

0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:59.960
<v Speaker 8>problem with debt is that because of Italy's structure of power,

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:04.560
<v Speaker 8>essentially we keep having governments that are unstable, and so

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:06.760
<v Speaker 8>I want to make the prime minister's off of the

0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:11.520
<v Speaker 8>prime minister's position more powerful. Therefore, if you make me

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:13.600
<v Speaker 8>more powerful, she won't need to referend them to do this.

0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.719
<v Speaker 8>Most likely, then debt will likely go down, which is

0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:21.840
<v Speaker 8>I think a very interesting experiment and testament of her

0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:23.400
<v Speaker 8>political skills.

0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 2>I think, I mean, does she have the political capital

0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:28.360
<v Speaker 2>to be able to pull off something like that, because

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, as you say, we're used to the instability

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:34.320
<v Speaker 2>that leaders can face kind of all of a sudden.

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:38.240
<v Speaker 2>So can Georgia Manoni pull something like that off.

0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 7>That's a good question.

0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.400
<v Speaker 8>Look, if she look at her peers, I think she's

0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.360
<v Speaker 8>the only one that's emerged from the European election over

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 8>the weekend with on the front foot. Right, there's been

0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:54.440
<v Speaker 8>a massive like break across Europe. The whereas Italian's voting

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:56.800
<v Speaker 8>for the European Parliament essentially said, look, we're happy with

0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 8>the status. Quote, sure, let's give Georgian couple more percentage

0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.680
<v Speaker 8>points in the polls. Your position has also surged, but

0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:08.159
<v Speaker 8>it's still second, it's still the runner up. So I

0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:12.880
<v Speaker 8>think she might actually have the political stability to do that. Internally,

0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.720
<v Speaker 8>and I think what matters to her now is that

0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:21.119
<v Speaker 8>she gets that good will solidified in Europe. So when

0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:25.520
<v Speaker 8>she needs the leeway necessary to keep her voters happy

0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 8>but also kind of keep her allies happy, she's got

0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 8>kind of the groundwork to do that.

0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:36.600
<v Speaker 2>Essentially, this is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on

0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.840
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0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:44.120
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0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:01.120
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0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:03.359
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0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:05.880
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0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:09.680
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