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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go the test growing in job. I'm saying

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Speaker 3: it to cast.

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Speaker 4: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabah you want to beat.

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Speaker 4: Man?

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Speaker 2: We are.

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Speaker 3: What's up? Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I

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Speaker 4: am your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl fifty seven betting preview where we'll talk about our

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Speaker 4: favorite bets for the season's biggest game, and of course

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Speaker 4: crack open our weekly Sunday six pack of best bets

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Speaker 4: with the help of my co host, Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 4: Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: You got one more game? How you feeling good?

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Speaker 2: I'm ready for the game to get here. It's been

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Speaker 2: a hell of a season for the podcast and hopefully

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Speaker 2: we can close out strong. And we should have swept

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Speaker 2: last I think he swept again. We should have swept overall. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: hey Bengals, maybe if you threw it to p ry

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Speaker 2: some more, maybe you would have won and then we

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Speaker 2: would have swept. So anyway, hopefully we can close out

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Speaker 2: strong here in the Super Bowl and Oh, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: plug something real quick Cleveland, Ohio. If you're there for

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Speaker 2: the super Bowl, check out my twitter at Stucky two,

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Speaker 2: the Punch Bowl Cleveland, Ohio. Cool spot, my good friend lives.

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Speaker 2: I go to Cleveland over here for the Rives game,

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Speaker 2: and people in our action they were like, hey, we

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Speaker 2: need you to do this sponsored event. I was like,

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Speaker 2: all right, where's it at Cleveland? It ends up being

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Speaker 2: like within walking distance of where I stay out of

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Speaker 2: my friends, free drinks, free food, free admission. Just RSVP

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Speaker 2: comes swept the games with me and we'll go out after.

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Speaker 2: So that's where I'll be for the games. Hit me

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Speaker 2: up if you're there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Oh, we'll get into the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: Coming up this week on the podcast, we have the

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Speaker 4: legendary proper Balus episode with Kerner and myself. We've got

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Speaker 4: the Best Bets episode with Vegas Refund Brandon Anderson and

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Speaker 4: his crew, and we also welcome the return of our

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Speaker 4: Friday UFC betting preview episodes starting this Friday. But let's

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Speaker 4: jump right into our final Sunday sixth pack of the

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty two to twenty three season featuring Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 4: against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl fifty.

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Speaker 2: Seven thursdayper Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, You're going to have two game picks, so

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Speaker 4: let's just start with your two picks, and that will

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Speaker 4: use that to kind of talk through both the side

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Speaker 4: and the total of this game, and it we'll kind

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Speaker 4: of go from there.

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Speaker 2: All right. So for my first pick of the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Kansas City

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Speaker 2: Chiefs plus one and a half. I also took some

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Speaker 2: money line here, and my reasoning is quite simple. I

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Speaker 2: picture myself in ten years not betting this game and

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Speaker 2: looking back and saying that I really not bet the

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Speaker 2: greatest quarterback of all time as an underdog in the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl against Jalen Nerds. My answer to that question

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Speaker 2: now will be no, because I did. I think this

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Speaker 2: is going to play out similar to the Cincinnati Kansas

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Speaker 2: City line. I remember I was saying, like, look, if

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Speaker 2: you want to bet the Chiefs, bet them now when

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Speaker 2: we were recording that podcast, and I would wait on

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Speaker 2: the Bengals. I think you're going to get more positive

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Speaker 2: news over the course of two weeks on the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: injury set situation, and it makes sense why the Eagles

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Speaker 2: took early money after the injuries that the Chiefs suffered.

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Speaker 2: But I think eventually, and there's some risk here because

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Speaker 2: maybe everyone is just ends up being out. I don't

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Speaker 2: think that's going to be the case, but we'll see.

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Speaker 2: And ultimately, if you go, you know over since Patrick

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Speaker 2: malonme Scott in the league, when you need him to

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Speaker 2: win a game from for a bet, it's the best

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Speaker 2: bet in the NFL since he arrived. And he's eighteen

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Speaker 2: six and one against the spread as an underdog or

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Speaker 2: a favorite of three or less. That's seventy five percent

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Speaker 2: including the postseason, is covered by an average of just

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Speaker 2: under six points per game. Playing good teams are all

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Speaker 2: against good teams. If Mahomes is an underdog or a

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Speaker 2: favorite of three or less, you're playing elite teams. And look,

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Speaker 2: you have the experience at quarterback advantage. I think a

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Speaker 2: coaching advantage here, coaching staff advantage. We know read success

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Speaker 2: off of a bye week, and look, the are a

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Speaker 2: great team and they have great personnel and all the

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Speaker 2: advantage in the trenches on both sides, and but and

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Speaker 2: their path was the easiest I've ever seen for a

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl team. Both they're mutually exclusive. You can be

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Speaker 2: good and then your path can be a joke. So

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Speaker 2: it's very hard to distill. The sample size of like

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Speaker 2: meaningful games that the Eagles played against quality competition is

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Speaker 2: so limited. But I do think that look, Hurts has

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Speaker 2: been a little iffy here, and I think the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are gonna say and look, Spagnola will always have a

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Speaker 2: great game plan in this situation, and there I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna try and make Hurts similar to what the

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Speaker 2: Niners did beat them in the pocket. And the Eagles

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Speaker 2: offense was ugly and they got a ton of calls,

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Speaker 2: and obviously the forty nine ers had you know, all

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Speaker 2: their their quarterbacks get hurt. But Hurts was off on

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Speaker 2: a couple throws. He hasn't been running as much either,

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Speaker 2: maybe he's still hurt a little bit. I do think

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Speaker 2: the Eagles are gonna have success running the ball. But

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Speaker 2: my biggest questions for this Eagles team is on the

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Speaker 2: defensive end. Look, the defensive line is great. I think

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs are going to neutralize that with some tempo.

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Speaker 2: But the secondary, I do believe is a bit overrated.

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Speaker 2: What are the data points that we have with this

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Speaker 2: Eagles defense against quality competition. Well, it certainly wasn't last

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Speaker 2: week without a quarterback. Certainly not against the Giants without receivers.

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Speaker 2: You gotta go back to I mean, they played the

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Speaker 2: Jags before the Jag I bet that was in weather

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Speaker 2: like that. That was before the Jags offense became who

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Speaker 2: they were. You could go to Dallas indoors, I mean

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Speaker 2: at Daco twenty four of twenty four against their zone concepts.

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Speaker 2: So they put up what forty points? Rogers who got

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Speaker 2: hurt in the game, they put up thirty three. You get.

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Speaker 2: Maybe their best offense that they faced all year was

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Speaker 2: the Lions in Week one, who in a trailing state

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Speaker 2: got into the thirties as well. So I think Mahomes

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Speaker 2: a company. It doesn't like he's gonna have Kelsey. They're

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Speaker 2: gonna have two weeks to scheme up a lot here

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Speaker 2: and the uncertainly maybe works in their favor. They're not

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Speaker 2: over your line on one receiver anyway, Like if they

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Speaker 2: need Kelsey in there. The interior offensive line is great.

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Speaker 2: Mahomes said, He's just going to get his regardless of

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Speaker 2: who's in there. I think he's going to be he Look,

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Speaker 2: he has two more weeks from the last time he

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Speaker 2: saw him. I think he's going to be mobile enough.

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Speaker 2: And I think that this Philly defense can be attacked

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Speaker 2: by elite offenses, which the Chiefs certainly are, and I

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Speaker 2: think that they're going to get to thirty ish at least.

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Speaker 2: I think the Eagles are going to get to twenty four,

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Speaker 2: which basically my second pick of the Super Bowl Sunday

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Speaker 2: six packs. I like the over up to fifty and

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Speaker 2: a half. That said I wouldn't play in a fifty one,

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Speaker 2: which is a key number. And look, so I do

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Speaker 2: think that My main reasoning here is I think the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs offense will be fine. I think the Eagles defense

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Speaker 2: is a tad overrated, and I think the Eagles offense

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Speaker 2: will still have success. I also think that both teams

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Speaker 2: are going to use tempo, and these are two teams

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Speaker 2: that can't have a lot of success doing that. And

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Speaker 2: I also think both teams are going to be uber

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Speaker 2: aggressive on fourth downs. Instead of hey, let's pass up

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Speaker 2: this field goal, let's go fod on fourth down. And

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Speaker 2: I think you're gonna see that throughout the game and

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Speaker 2: it's going to be competitive throughout. So I think that this.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you give me a final final score prediction,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna say thirty to twenty four. Chiefs win this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm trusting Mahomes and this staff to get it done,

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Speaker 2: and I ultimately think they close as a favorite, assuming

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Speaker 2: there's just not really bad injury news. But yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: the easiest approach here. You're not going to find a

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Speaker 2: ton of value in the Super Bowl this time. You

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Speaker 2: buying markets are efficient. But I do think that with

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Speaker 2: the injury concerns, and look, there's injury concerns with Hurts too,

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Speaker 2: who might be even more injured, and if you look

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Speaker 2: at some of his numbers, that could be the case.

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Speaker 2: But I'm backing Patrick as an underdog if I go

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Speaker 2: down in flames, so be it very comfortable with this play.

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Speaker 2: That's my favorite bet of the Super Bowl is the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs money line and catching the points.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I got a few things here.

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Speaker 4: First of all, in regard to the two defenses, I

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Speaker 4: thought what was really interesting. You know, in my personal model,

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Speaker 4: you know, I'm projecting all the all the player stats

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Speaker 4: out as well, but it all starts with obviously, you're

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Speaker 4: gonna make adjustments to reach defense and I schedule adjust

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Speaker 4: the numbers, and I was surprised to see that the

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Speaker 4: for yards per attempt, yards per pass attempt allowed, I

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Speaker 4: have the Chiefs defense rated the same as the Eagles

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Speaker 4: against the league average quarterback.

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Speaker 3: So you know that that kind of surprised me.

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Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs defense is a little bit underrated,

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Speaker 4: or maybe it's that the Eagles defense is overrated, but

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Speaker 4: either way, I just thought that was something that was interesting.

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Speaker 4: But as far as, like, you know, the the matchups,

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Speaker 4: I mean, how do you see, how do you foresee.

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Speaker 3: Like what do you think the game plan is going

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Speaker 3: to be for both teams really coming out?

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Speaker 4: Because I'm thinking, okay, Chiefs probably got to get the

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Speaker 4: tight ends involved. You know, even if guys are healthy,

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Speaker 4: I still think it's gonna be tough. You know, going

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Speaker 4: at slaying BRADBURYO game, I think you can have more

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Speaker 4: success on the interior, and that seems to be the

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Speaker 4: way a lot of these Chiefs games have been setting

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Speaker 4: up lately. But just kind of and then I also

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Speaker 4: think you see more for Checko. I think I think

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Speaker 4: he really is starting to come on. I think that

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Speaker 4: you know, heavy formations two three, tight ends on a field.

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Speaker 4: I think that's kind of the chief's best bet. But

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Speaker 4: curious as to what you think they're how they're gonna

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Speaker 4: come out on offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that you're gonna see number one,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna see more tempo. Number two, you're gonna see

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Speaker 2: more balance. So if you look at the you know,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles numbers like, yeah, I do think that their

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Speaker 2: past defense is overrated. And even if you schedule adjusted,

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Speaker 2: there's also some injuries in there, some weather, and it's

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Speaker 2: very difficult just to get a handle of even when

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Speaker 2: your schedule adjusted, because they just played so many pad

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Speaker 2: offenses and quarterbacks and there was injuries like last week,

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Speaker 2: and it could go on and on. But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think that they're gonna be able to run the ball.

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Speaker 2: And I think Philly's defense is going to say, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna have lighter boxes here, You're gonna see the traditional

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Speaker 2: you know, gan and defense, who, by the way, Mahomes

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Speaker 2: last year ripped apart. I think he had five touchdowns

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Speaker 2: in the game and he just went bananas. And I

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Speaker 2: think that they're gonna they're gonna come out and you're

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Speaker 2: gonna see some good bounce you're gonna see more. The

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Speaker 2: Chiefs are the most pass heavy team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I believe this year in neutral situations, maybe done with

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Speaker 2: the Bills, but I think you'll see more running here

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Speaker 2: to set up the pass. And I agree with the

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Speaker 2: tight ends, and you're gonna see a great script here too,

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Speaker 2: which is gonna for so I think that ultimately the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs are gonna jump out to a lead. You might

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Speaker 2: see some more nerves on Hurts side, but put the

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Speaker 2: Eagles into trailing state. It's just something that they haven't

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Speaker 2: done often on and especially on this stage. But I

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Speaker 2: agree with you. I think you're gonna see heavier formations.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna see more running. That's where the Eagles defense

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Speaker 2: is the softest. To open up the pass. And I

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Speaker 2: think Mahomes is gonna be Mahomes as he always is.

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Speaker 2: And on the other side, I think that the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are gonna take like but the Chiefs defense. The exception

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Speaker 2: was the Bengals receivers, but last week they did a

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Speaker 2: good enough job. But the Chiefs defense under spec Nola,

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Speaker 2: she generally does a really good job on outside receivers, right,

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Speaker 2: and they just okay. If you have good receivers on

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Speaker 2: the outside, They're going to focus on taking them away.

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Speaker 2: I think that might also mirror the game plan that

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers had, Like there was always someone

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Speaker 2: spying Hurts when he was in the pocket, and the

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Speaker 2: defensive ends were just doing a really good job of

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Speaker 2: containing him in the pocket and making sure that he

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Speaker 2: had to stay in the pocket, and turned Hurts into

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Speaker 2: a pocket passer, where that's not a strength, and especially

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Speaker 2: if he's dealing with his injury, he's just not as

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Speaker 2: accurate as he was and his efficiency has gone down.

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Speaker 2: So I think the Eagles have to come out here

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Speaker 2: and rely on their ground game to set up the pass.

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Speaker 2: Kind of the opposite kind of the same thing that

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs are going to do, and I think they

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Speaker 2: will have success running the ball here, Like their offensive

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Speaker 2: line is going to have a big advantage in the trenches.

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Speaker 2: Think the Chiefs are gonna be focused on our let's

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Speaker 2: take away the outside receivers and then let's try and

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Speaker 2: you know they're gonna have some run blitzes. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: try and get them into third and long situations and

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Speaker 2: then say, let's make Hurts beat us. But but I

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Speaker 2: agree with on the Chiefs offensive side, You're gonna see

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Speaker 2: more balance mixed with tempo as well, because I think

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Speaker 2: what tempo does is it one of the strengths of

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Speaker 2: that Eagles defense is their ability to rotate and just

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Speaker 2: so many bodies on the defensive line. So I think

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Speaker 2: that using tempo here is gonna it's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: really successful formula. And you're just gonna have so many

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Speaker 2: unique design plays here with all all they just don't

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Speaker 2: rely on anyone piece. We don't know who's gonna play.

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Speaker 2: But I think that's gonna work to their favor here

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Speaker 2: with the element of surprise and then just getting even

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Speaker 2: more creative.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean I think, you know, my thought

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Speaker 4: about the Chiefs too is coming into this game. You

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Speaker 4: know that last Super Bowl they were in being at

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Speaker 4: thirty one to nine.

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Speaker 3: Loss to the Bucks.

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Speaker 4: I just feel like they're gonna come in and say,

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Speaker 4: we cannot lose the same way, and this is another

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Speaker 4: defense that can get pressure.

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Speaker 3: Uh So, yeah, I think that's why.

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Speaker 4: That's just another reason why I think they'll go a

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Speaker 4: little heavier. To your point, they could probably use some tempo.

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Speaker 4: They just cannot, you know, just we've even though their

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Speaker 4: line is a lot better than it was that year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that line was yeah, but.

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Speaker 4: But I mean we've seen you know, that San Francisco

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Speaker 4: line is not the not bad and they got completely

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Speaker 4: ravaged to the point where both their quarterbacks got hurt

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Speaker 4: in the first was the first half.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Chiefs are gonna look at that.

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Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs are gonna look at uh that

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Speaker 4: that Super Bowl against campaign just say we can't lose

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Speaker 4: the same way, and that that's kind of how they're

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Speaker 4: going to think about their game plan.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you gotta you gotta think they gotta give help

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Speaker 2: to the tackles here. That's the weak point. The tier

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Speaker 2: is gonna be fine for the Chiefs. And uh, I

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Speaker 2: think a good a good comp You could go to

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Speaker 2: the forty like the forty nine Ers game with the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and look if if we have ridiculous Mahomes like

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Speaker 2: he was in that forty nine Ers game, like everyone's

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Speaker 2: a while he is just shot, they're gonna win this

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Speaker 2: game by twenty If he's just you know, normal good Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win buy a touchdown. But that

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers game, I think they can have a

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Speaker 2: similar game plan here and then just go a little

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Speaker 2: heavier with a little more balance, because the Eagles run

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Speaker 2: the's worse than the forty nine Ers run defense. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I just I'm ultimately trust the Mahomes. I'm trusting Red here,

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Speaker 2: and I'm trusting the fact that I do believe based

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Speaker 2: on my eye test and the numbers I'm looking at,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles pass defense is overrated. Mahomes is going to

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Speaker 2: be Mahomes, and the Chiefs are going to prevail. And

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Speaker 2: it feels right that Mahomes would have get a second

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl and then the team from the AFC would

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Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl this year that it's much more

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Speaker 2: battle tested. But that's no disrespect to the Eagles. I

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Speaker 2: think it's gonna be thirty thirty to twenty four. It

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Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me the Eagles are twenty four to twenty three,

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Speaker 2: and then and the Chiefs have the ball, and you

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Speaker 2: know what, I would feel extremely confident that Mahomes is

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Speaker 2: gonna getwn the field and win the game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and to your point about hurts, and we'll get

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Speaker 4: into this with one of my picks, but last four

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Speaker 4: games yard per attempt eight point five, six point five,

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Speaker 4: six point four, four point eight and I know they've

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Speaker 4: had some leads in there and things like that, but

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Speaker 4: it just seems like he's not quite right as far

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Speaker 4: as as throwing the football.

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Speaker 3: He has two touchdowns and three interceptions.

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Speaker 2: Oh aj Brown was a perf that Aj Brown passed

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Speaker 2: that he missed that deep pass early. It was a

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Speaker 2: perfect example of like he was hitting those consistently early

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Speaker 2: in the season, and his rushing numbers right, his rushing

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Speaker 2: numbers are going down as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he hasn't been quite the same.

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Speaker 4: He did turn it on a little bit towards the

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Speaker 4: end of that San Francisco game, but you still haven't

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Speaker 4: seen the same efficiency from him from him as a

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Speaker 4: runner that we've seen early in the year. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I leen taking the points with the Chiefs. I do

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Speaker 4: kind of lean under though. I just think that because

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Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs are going to be a little

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Speaker 4: bit more run heavy to your point at than they

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Speaker 4: usually would be. Can go a little heavier, and then

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Speaker 4: the Eagles, like we know, like they're probably going to

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Speaker 4: try to say, okay, we got to shorten the game.

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Speaker 4: We don't want Mahomes you know, out there, even though

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Speaker 4: we trust our defense. So I was kind of weaning under.

347
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Speaker 4: I thought, you know, if it gets to fifty one,

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Speaker 4: I was going to hit the under. So interested to

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Speaker 4: hear your take on that, and also, like you, what

350
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Speaker 4: do you think of the ref in this spot. You

351
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Speaker 4: know a lot of talk about Cheffers, and it's interesting

352
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Speaker 4: because he calls a ton of penalties, but yet you

353
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Speaker 4: see his games tend to go under, which usually when

354
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Speaker 4: you got a lot of penalties, it ends up kind

355
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Speaker 4: of benefiting the offense more. But Cheffer's eleven to one

356
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Speaker 4: under in the postseason, Yeah, I don't like.

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Speaker 2: I mean, last time Cheffer's read the Super Bowl, I

358
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Speaker 2: think he had ten penalties on the penalties on the

359
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Speaker 2: Chiefs that was I mean, their offensive line was a disaster. Yeah,

360
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Speaker 2: I it just increases the variance. So I don't like

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Speaker 2: when Cheffer's does games, so whatever we'll see. I usually

362
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Speaker 2: I don't like when he's a road ref either. But yeah,

363
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 2: I mean you could see deep both of these teams

364
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Speaker 2: go a little run heavier, but I think that you're

365
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Speaker 2: also going to see both teams go a little faster

366
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Speaker 2: and then also be a little more aggressive than they

367
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Speaker 2: normally are. So I think that that balances it out.

368
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 2: But to your point, I wouldn't play over fifty one.

369
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Speaker 2: So fifty and a half was my kind of my

370
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Speaker 2: breaking point on how I see this game playing out.

371
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Speaker 2: And I guess before we get to all of your props,

372
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Speaker 2: I'll just give out my third pick of the Sunday

373
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Speaker 2: six pack, and that's just I'm going to Jake Elliot

374
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 2: under seven and a half kicker points. I guess this

375
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,919
Speaker 2: is kind of I guess it's kind of a hedge

376
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 2: like there. If the Chiefs are holding the Eagles are

377
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 2: just field goals all day, then fine, I probably am

378
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 2: good with my Chiefs bet. But I think that number one,

379
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 2: this number is a bit too high. Number two, the

380
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,760
Speaker 2: Eagles I think are going to be really aggressive. Number three,

381
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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna score touchdowns instead of fields. I

382
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 2: think both teams are going to be able to score

383
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 2: touchdowns intea of fields, which is why I like the over.

384
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 2: But the Eagles have been one of the most aggressive

385
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Speaker 2: teams all year, and fourth downs they'll even try and

386
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 2: you know, get you to jump to go for two,

387
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 2: to go for two from the ones, they could just

388
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 2: sneak it, which is free money for them. And I

389
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 2: also wouldn't be surprised if they just decide. You know,

390
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,160
Speaker 2: say they score first, go up six and up, they'd

391
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 2: go for two right away, just to be like, hey,

392
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 2: we're setting the tone. That's kind of the mo of

393
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Speaker 2: this coaching staff. And I think when you're playing the

394
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Speaker 2: Chiefs you have to even have that meant you have

395
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 2: to even elevate that mentality even more so. I think

396
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 2: they're going to be super aggressive throughout the game, so

397
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 2: the opportunities for kicks might not be as plentiful. So

398
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Speaker 2: my prediction was, what would I say, thirty to twenty four,

399
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: which would you know, put them at six points. I

400
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 2: think this is just a little too high. I think

401
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 2: the line should be like under seven minus one ten

402
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen, So I think you can find under

403
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 2: seven and a half out there for minus one fifteen

404
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 2: still so and then also the Chiefs have some potential

405
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 2: regression like no one missed a kick and that this

406
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 2: isn't reason to bet it, but no one missed a

407
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 2: kick against the wall, no miss extra point, and teams

408
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 2: went like ninety three percent from on field goals. The

409
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 2: average is eight ninety four for extra points, so maybe

410
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,919
Speaker 2: they're due to have a miskick. And Jake Elliott is

411
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 2: one of the only two kickers to miss an extra

412
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 2: point since nineteen ninety. So yeah, and I like the

413
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 2: Chiefs to win. And I think you're just gonna see

414
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 2: more touchdowns and field goals, fourth down aggressiveness, and then

415
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 2: you could even see some two point conversions in here.

416
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 2: So I like under seven and a half kicker points

417
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 2: in a really fascinating special teams battle. Chiefs special teams

418
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 2: struggled this year, but I think Bucker will be fine.

419
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 2: He's looked good in the playoffs. He has the experience.

420
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: The Chiefs punting is elite, and the biggest question. Their

421
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 2: return game is awful. So there are pump returns are

422
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 2: kick returns have been bad. I think you're gonna see

423
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 2: a ton of fair catches on pump returns, maybe even

424
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 2: kicks too. But the Chiefs punning, I mean, Townshend was

425
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: one of the best all year. So if one team

426
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,679
Speaker 2: is punting, just if one teams punting this game, then

427
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, right, So it would be a disaster

428
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 2: for them anyway because the other team's probably scoring. If

429
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: both teams are punting and it's a defensive battle, the

430
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 2: Chiefs could have a pretty significant advantage as far as

431
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: field position is concerned. Townshend was number one in the

432
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 2: NFL and net punting. The Eagles were close to the

433
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 2: bottom of the league, one of the worst punting teams

434
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Now Kerrn last week was a disaster.

435
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 2: Sippos will probably be back, but he wasn't great. So

436
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 2: the punting for Philadelphia, if it becomes a field position

437
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 2: punning a game that could make a difference. And then

438
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,400
Speaker 2: Boston Scott is a kick returner. He's been really good

439
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 2: in that role. I think he would be the top

440
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 2: five if he qualified, so he's probably the most likely

441
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: to maybe break a game changing play on special teams.

442
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: Other than that, I think it's probably a wash, and

443
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: then you'll see more aggressiveness throughout on both teams. Chiefs

444
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 2: win in a game that gets to the low fifties,

445
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 2: low to mid fifties. That's my two cents and most

446
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 2: of my thoughts on the game.

447
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, I'll give out mine. Then I'll guess

448
00:21:55,480 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 4: I'll go and order my favorite. Let's start with Eric

449
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 4: McKinnon longest rush under nine and a half yards. I

450
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 4: show value on nine and a half, under nine and

451
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 4: a half to minus one seventy and under eight and

452
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 4: a half even to minus one nineteen, he's gone under

453
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 4: nine and a half and fifteen of nineteen games, he's

454
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 4: only had five runs of ten or more yards on

455
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 4: his eighty eight carries this season. That's just a five

456
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 4: point seven percent, So that means on average, he would

457
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 4: need about eight upwards of eight carries just to have

458
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 4: a fifty to fifty shot at you know, going over

459
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 4: nine and a half in any given game. He's averaging

460
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 4: only four point six carries this year. His meetian is four.

461
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 4: And they tried to go back to what they did

462
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 4: last postseason against the Jaguars in that first game, because

463
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 4: last postseason McKinnon had double digit carries every game. So

464
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 4: they give him eleven carries, he only gets twenty five yards,

465
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 4: and so they completely abandoned that last game and just

466
00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: go back to Pacheco is the lead back, McKinnon is

467
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 4: the pass down back, and Pacheco actually cut into McKinnon's

468
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 4: pass naps as well. But McKinnon just hasn't been effective

469
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 4: all year. He had that one big run the walk

470
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:15,719
Speaker 4: off against the Texans. Since then, twenty four carries forty

471
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 4: three yards one point eight yards per carry in a

472
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 4: long of seven in his last five games. Meanwhile, over

473
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 4: that same exact span, running behind the same offensive line

474
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 4: against defenses who probably are more are expecting to run more,

475
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 4: Pacheco has fifty three carries, two hundred and seventy four

476
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 4: yards five point two yards per carrying a couple of touchdowns.

477
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 4: So Pachecko has just been the better runner. And I

478
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 4: started to flash in a pass game as well, So

479
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 4: I think you're actually gonna see a lot of Pacheco

480
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 4: and McKinnon's probably gonna be used mostly as a pass

481
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 4: protector and he'll obviously get you know, his routes in,

482
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 4: but I just don't think you're gonna see another one

483
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 4: of these big McKinnon carry games. And that's gonna so

484
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 4: then it's gonna be really hard for him to get

485
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 4: an explosive run when he's got only five to to

486
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 4: a year. So that is my favorite, And that kind

487
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 4: of also aligns with my thought that the Chiefs are

488
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 4: gonna go a little heavier. If you're going two three

489
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 4: tight end more often than that, you're gonna have to

490
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 4: Checko in the game instead of McKinnon.

491
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we could probably heavily used. I think

492
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are gonna have a really good screen game

493
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 2: here in this game. But I would agree with you.

494
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: My one concern would have been, hey, do we not

495
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 2: trust the rookie in a big game, But just that

496
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 2: would have been the AFC Championship game, right, So if

497
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: you didn't have that thought process in the AFC Championship,

498
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 2: you're not gonna have it here. So I think that

499
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 2: was a really good sign. And you can kind of

500
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 2: parallel the what's gonna happen as far as those splits.

501
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 2: So love it. And yeah, I didn't realize that that

502
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 2: was how small of a percentage of chrries you had

503
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 2: of that one that's cret only five percentage.

504
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, he just hasn't been great.

505
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's been overshadowed by all the

506
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 4: touchdowns he's getting in the receiering game. He's been great there,

507
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 4: but yeah, it just hasn't worked for them this year

508
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 4: as a runner, which was interesting because that's how they

509
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 4: ended the playoffs last year.

510
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 3: It was just it was like, oh, yeah, we're.

511
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: Just gonna use this guy as a running back after

512
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 4: we really didn't use them all year in that role.

513
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the market's too high in him.

514
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 4: But My second prop is for the Super Bowl fifty

515
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 4: seven Sunday six pack presented by FanDuel. I'm going with

516
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: Quez Watkins under one and a half receptions.

517
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 3: Shop around.

518
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 4: I show value on this anything under one eighty but

519
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 4: minus one eighty that is. But I've seen it anywhere

520
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 4: from one thirty to one sixty on the market. It's

521
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 4: an under, so it's a chance it continues.

522
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 3: To go up.

523
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 4: We still are about a week out from the game,

524
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 4: so I wouldn't necessarily say jump on all of these

525
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 4: unders immediately, but you can kind of watch, watch where

526
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 4: the lines are going, check the action app. If it

527
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,479
Speaker 4: looks like it's just getting more and more juiced up,

528
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 4: you probably want to jump on it. But I see

529
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 4: I say this every week player with and without Dallas

530
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 4: Goddard in the lineup. Without Goddard, he had five games

531
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 4: averaging nearly five targets a game, over three and a

532
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: half catches per game, seventy five percent catch rate because

533
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 4: he's running high percent of routs, just an eight out

534
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,479
Speaker 4: of seven point eight for his average depth to target.

535
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 4: And then he is getting targeted nineteen percent of the

536
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 4: time on a per route basis. And then with Dallas

537
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 4: Goddard in the lineup fourteen games, averaging one point one

538
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 4: catches median of a half. He has got one or

539
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 4: fewer catches in nine of those fourteen games, and his

540
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 4: eight out.

541
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 3: Is twelve point two.

542
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 4: And because he's getting, you know, running lower percentage routs,

543
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,919
Speaker 4: he's been targeted under nine percent of the time per route.

544
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 4: So I do think this is a game where maybe

545
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 4: they finally hook up on a deep ball or something

546
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 4: like that, which is why I'm not going back to

547
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 4: the well. With the yardage dropping for the third straight week,

548
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 4: I do think volume wise, he's not in a good

549
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 4: spot to get multiple catches because again, his catchwak drops

550
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 4: to about fifty eight percent with Godard in the lineup,

551
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 4: and his snaps in the passing game have actually been decreasing.

552
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 4: And I've been talking about this for a few weeks,

553
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 4: but in the playoffs he's run twenty one routes. Zach

554
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 4: Pascal has run twenty twenty seven percent route participation a

555
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago, and then it rebounded the next

556
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 4: game to fifty two percent, but that's still well below

557
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: his regular season average, which was sixty four percent. So

558
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: they just seem a lot more hesitant to use him

559
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 4: in in the pass game, and maybe that's because you know,

560
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 4: they rather just have you know, Pascal on the on

561
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 4: the field because he's a run blocker, and they don't

562
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 4: feel like they're giving up much in the pass game

563
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 4: because Watkins is only caught three of his last eleven

564
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 4: targets and as I mentioned, he's doing almost nothing when

565
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 4: when they have got it, So they're probably just like, hey,

566
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 4: you know, we can afford to take this guy out

567
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 4: and just throw Pascal in there, even though he's not

568
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 4: a threat either. So just a lot of things kind

569
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 4: of contributing to like this Quez under this week, we're

570
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 4: going receptions instead of guards.

571
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 2: Though, And yeah, I mean you're the the Quez Watkins

572
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 2: under king. Uh So who am I? Who am I

573
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 2: to question? And yeah, we need that. This is the

574
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 2: cherry on top for the trifecta of the Quez Watkins

575
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 2: unders and playoffs. So yeah, I'll be I'll be joining

576
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 2: you there. How about your third?

577
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 3: So my third is more of a straight up numbers play.

578
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 4: But you know, I was looking at this and I

579
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 4: feel like there's a narratives and yet the numbers don't

580
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 4: necessarily back it up.

581
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: So the narrative is like, Okay, totals moving up.

582
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 4: Uh, this is the worst defense, Uh, one of the

583
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 4: worst defenses of the four that the that the Eagles

584
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 4: are facing in the conference, of the four final four teams.

585
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 4: And you know, it's like, Okay, the Eagles haven't trailed

586
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 4: much now, they're only favored by point point and a half,

587
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 4: so they could be throwing more.

588
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 3: But I'm going under Jalen.

589
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 4: Hurts passing yards at two forty six and a half

590
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 4: and I have this closer to two thirty five for

591
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 4: a median because Hurts doesn't necessarily follow like the normal

592
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 4: quarterback game scripts, where Okay, when the game is close,

593
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 4: he throws more.

594
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 3: And you know, in blowouts his numbers are low.

595
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 4: All five, he's only gone over in five games, every

596
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 4: other game two forty three or less. And in those

597
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 4: five games, only one of them was a close game.

598
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,719
Speaker 4: It was the twenty five to twenty game against Chicago

599
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 4: where he threw for over three hundred. All the other

600
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 4: games that he's thrown for a ton of yardage and

601
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 4: gone over this number have been blowouts. And you know

602
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 4: that really, so that doesn't kind of line up with

603
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 4: the with the narrative here you mentioned it the shoulder.

604
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,959
Speaker 4: I still don't know if it's one hundred percent. Uh,

605
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 4: you know, obviously he will have two weeks. But his

606
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 4: numbers have been trending down really for the second half

607
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 4: of the season. He's averaging just seven point two yards

608
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 4: in attempt. Already mentioned how he's trended down over the

609
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 4: last four games in that category. So this is one

610
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,959
Speaker 4: where they could be losing. He could go under, they

611
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 4: could be winning, he could go under. I just think

612
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,239
Speaker 4: the numbers too high, and I think the Eagles, as

613
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 4: they've done every other game, they're still going to come

614
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 4: out and try to run the football. And the thing

615
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: about these teams is, even though yes, they could go tempo,

616
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 4: they could go faster, but both of these teams are

617
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 4: used to kind of because their offense is so good,

618
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 4: they're used to kind of controlling the ball and they're

619
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 4: winning that time of possession battle. Well, now they're going

620
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 4: up against each other, so you know, something has to

621
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 4: give here. So you could actually see, you know, a

622
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 4: few fewer plays for each team just because they're usually

623
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: kind of on the on the on the positive side

624
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 4: of that, so I like this. I like this Jalen

625
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 4: hurts under at two forty six and a half. I

626
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 4: think it's about ten yards too high.

627
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: YEP, I would agree with you there.

628
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 4: So Stuck is going with the Kansas City Chiefs plus

629
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 4: one and a half, the over fifty and a half

630
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 4: and Jake Elliott under seven and a half kicking points.

631
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 4: I'm going with Jared McKinnon under nine and a half

632
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 4: for his longest rush, Ques Watkins under one and a

633
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 4: half receptions, and jaywen Hurts under to forty six and

634
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 4: a half passing yards, and I should mention regarding that

635
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 4: hurts prop Kansas City defense, to your point, held Burrow

636
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 4: to two hundred and seventy on forty one attempts, six

637
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 4: point six yards for an attempt, and then the game

638
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 4: before that, Trevor Lawrence just two hundred and seventeen on

639
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:36,719
Speaker 4: thirty nine attempts.

640
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 3: That was just five point six yards at attempt.

641
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 4: So in this postseason, they've been helding these quarterbacks under

642
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 4: their season averages in losing efforts for those quarterbacks.

643
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 2: So just that was the three rookies last week. And

644
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 2: I expect to need to be back from concussion protocol

645
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 2: in time for the Super Bowl, all right, So.

646
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's close it out real quick with one final

647
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 4: coaches pep talk for the season. This week's coaches pep

648
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:03,479
Speaker 4: Talk comes to us from Wilford Brimley in the nineteen

649
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 4: eighty one film Absence of Malice, and we're dedicating it

650
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: to all of the listeners.

651
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's set again to everyone out there that is

652
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:18,959
Speaker 2: just there's just so much uncertainty about the health of receivers,

653
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks, and we're really not going to know for

654
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 2: sure until five minutes into the game. So this goes

655
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 2: out to us and all of you who are just

656
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 2: in the cloud of uncertainty one final time this season.

657
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: Come sun down. There's going to be two things true

658
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: that ain't true now. One is that the United States

659
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: is going to know what in the good Christ is

660
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: going on around here, and the others I'm going to

661
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: have somebody's ass in my briefcase.

662
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: As far as early bets, everyone wants to bet the

663
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 2: first touchdown. I prefer any time touchdown and just to

664
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: get back to my bets. I mean, I think if

665
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are going to have it's just flawless game

666
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: plan come out here, they're going to take a lead early.

667
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 2: By the way, this whole Eagles team everything about them.

668
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 2: They're front runners, right like their elite front runners. Their

669
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: pass rush, that their ability to run the ball, and

670
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: most of the time this year they have the lead.

671
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 2: So if the Chiefs are jump out, I think that's

672
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 2: a big advantage here. But if Mahomes is behind, I'm

673
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,719
Speaker 2: not too worried. But that leg leads me to believe

674
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 2: I would look at a Chief for the first touchdown,

675
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 2: but I prefer anytime touchdown. I'll let you make the

676
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: case here, Jody forts Jody. We have to have him

677
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 2: anytime touchdown, right.

678
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 4: I love this guy for anytime touchdown. So the case

679
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 4: for him is pretty simple. When this guy catches a pass,

680
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 4: it usually goes for a touchdown. Twenty nine percent of

681
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 4: his career catches have gone for touchdown. This year, thirty

682
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 4: eight percent of his targets have come inside.

683
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: The ten, not even the red zone, but inside the ten.

684
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 4: And he's running about eight routes per game, about a

685
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 4: twenty percent route participation rate, which is pretty good for

686
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 4: a third tight end, especially when you consider that it's

687
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 4: a third tight end on a team with the greatest

688
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 4: quarterback on the planet right now, and on a team

689
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 4: that's generally more pass heavy than the league average.

690
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 3: So Jody Fortson is that he just came back.

691
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: And you have wide receiver injuries too.

692
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and you have wide receiver injuries.

693
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 4: And I think you know, it's a bigger prop market

694
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 4: for the Super Bowl, right, so you know, you know,

695
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 4: like sometimes we give out a prop on this podcast

696
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 4: and it just moves to a point where you can't

697
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 4: even bet it anymore. I don't think that'll be the

698
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 4: case with things like this because the market's so big,

699
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: and but maybe he goes a little under the radar

700
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 4: just because he just came back last last game for

701
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 4: the NFC for excuse me, for the AFC Championship. He

702
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 4: was out for about a month, little over a month

703
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 4: I believe, prior to that, and Blake Bell was actually

704
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 4: filling in as that number three tight end. But Blake

705
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 4: Bell was inactive in Fortson's return. So I'm expecting that

706
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 4: to be the case barring just a bunch of wide

707
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 4: receiver injuries and they decided to just you know, bring up.

708
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 3: Four tight ends.

709
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 4: And if I will say this too, if you see

710
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 4: the inactive come out on Super Bowl Sunday a couple

711
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 4: of hours before the game, and they have four tight

712
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 4: ends active. They have Fortson and Bell active, that that

713
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 4: would scare me A would have been off the over

714
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 4: because then I would be like, Okay, the Chiefs really

715
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 4: are about to commit to this like heavy game play,

716
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 4: so that that is something to kind of watch.

717
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Forts and yeah, I love it for the

718
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: pride of Valdosta State, and yeah, I think and also

719
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:28,959
Speaker 2: just think about it, like I think that the Chiefs

720
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 2: are gonna have a just a flawless script early and

721
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 2: part of that's going to be, Hey, where if the

722
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 2: first time they're near the end zone, where are all

723
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: the eyes gonna be. It's gonna be on Travis Kelcey.

724
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 2: You have a second tight end in there. A little misdirection,

725
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 2: you could see him end up being wide open with

726
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 2: all the eyes on Kelsey because that's where all the

727
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 2: attention is going to be for the Eagles dedicated to

728
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: So I love that. I love Fortson Kelsey any time touchdown.

729
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,760
Speaker 2: As you say, it's never a bad bet could Kelsey.

730
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 2: From an MVP perspective, it's very hard for me to

731
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 2: see Mahomes out winning it. If the Chiefs win, I

732
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 2: mean maybe Kelsey Titans ever won up. But Kelsey's basically receiver,

733
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 2: but they have so many different wide receiver options, so

734
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 2: many different running back options, it's hard for me the Eagles.

735
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 2: Maybe I could, you could make a case for someone

736
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 2: other than the quarterback. Any thoughts on MVP, Yeah, So

737
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 2: I actually.

738
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 3: I approach it a little bit differently.

739
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 4: I tried because I'm not usually betting these markets on

740
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 4: a normal week, as people that followed me probably realized,

741
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 4: whether it be anytime touchdown or MVP. But I do

742
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,439
Speaker 4: think the MVP market, you know, it's the last game.

743
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 4: So I kind of try to take Okay, put myself

744
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 4: in the mind to somebody who's you know, following us,

745
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 4: looking for some looking for an edge, and just how

746
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 4: how would you bet this to kind of have fun

747
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 4: and take advantage of the fact that's the last time

748
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 4: you're gonna be able to at floor football and still

749
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 4: make you know, plus ev bets that give yourself a

750
00:36:58,280 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 4: good chance to profit.

751
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 3: So I kind of do it like this.

752
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 4: I look at it like, Okay, you have a guy

753
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 4: like Jalen Hurts, he's plus one thirty on FANDUL, Right,

754
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 4: that's overpriced if you just look at the fact that, Okay,

755
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 4: about seventy percent of the time quarterbacks will win it.

756
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 4: If you go go back over the last fifteen or

757
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 4: so years, you divide that in half. It's a close game,

758
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 4: about thirty five percent chance. True odds probably should be

759
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 4: closer to one seventy one eighty. You think the Eagles

760
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 4: are more likely to win the game, maybe you get

761
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:28,280
Speaker 4: down to one fifty one forty uh but one thirty.

762
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 3: Is probably a little bit high.

763
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: But still got it.

764
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 4: Yes, because Jalen Hurts Mahomes at one thirty each. No

765
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 4: one else is below sixteen to one. So what you

766
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 4: can do Hurts is the most likely. Same thing goes

767
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 4: for Mahomes if you think the Chiefs are gonna win.

768
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 4: But if you think Hurts is the most likely. For example,

769
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 4: if you think the Eagles are more likely to win,

770
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 4: a guy like Jalen Hurts, he's the most likely player

771
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 4: to win.

772
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 3: You're getting him at plus money and a J.

773
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 4: Brown eighteen to one, Davante Smith thirty one to one,

774
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 4: Miles Sanders twenty five to one. You can right, you

775
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 4: can have and we have the Acching Network Hedging calculator

776
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 4: where you can literally calculate this the optimal amount that

777
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 4: let's say you put one hundred on Hurts the optimal

778
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 4: amount to put on a guy like AJ Brown and

779
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 4: still profit if either of them win.

780
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 3: And guess what, it's not a lot.

781
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 4: If you put one hundred dollars on Hurts at plusling

782
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 4: thirty on Ftanduel at eighteen to one for AJ Brown,

783
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 4: all you need to do is put another twelve bucks

784
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 4: on AJ Brown and you're locking in about over one

785
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 4: hundred dollars profit if either of them wins. Now, obviously

786
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 4: it doesn't mean either of them will win, but it's

787
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 4: just once you roster Hurts, it's very cheap to also

788
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 4: account for alternate scenarios where Hurts, where the Eagles win

789
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 4: but the most likely player Hurts doesn't win the MVP.

790
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 3: So and the same thing.

791
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 4: Is true for Patrick Mahome Travis Kelsey sixteen to one,

792
00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 4: My homes is pluscling thirty.

793
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 3: You could just bet.

794
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 4: Both to them. That can be your your your portfolio.

795
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 4: You can even throw a third guy in there, and

796
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 4: you know, or you can take it.

797
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 2: You know, if you really like you want to get

798
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,399
Speaker 2: wild and just root for a crazy low scoring game

799
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: and then just one defender to have like a pick six,

800
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 2: and you can do that too. So yeah, I agree,

801
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 2: that's a pretty good way to approach it. And I

802
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 2: think if you liked the Eagles, then it's even more

803
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: Like I think there's just a small there's a just

804
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 2: a hair better chance that someone other than Hurts wins

805
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: it if the Eagles win than Mahomes, just because it's

806
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 2: it's narrativey right, Like even when Damian Williams his game

807
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 2: like he didn't win it and he had one hundred

808
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 2: and thirty yards, two touchdowns, a game winning touchdown, like,

809
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 2: it's still Mahomes. Like Mahomes name carries so much weight

810
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 2: that in order for like Kelsey to win it, what

811
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 2: is he going to need seventeen catches?

812
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 4: But I would actually disagree because guess what if Kelsea

813
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 4: were to win it, he'd be he'd have beaten his

814
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 4: all pro brother. Mahomes already has one, Like I think

815
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 4: it this is like the one time where Travis Kelcey

816
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 4: probably has the narrative on his side, like he's going

817
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 4: up with his brother.

818
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 3: Everyone's everyone's kind of talking about that.

819
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 4: And you have this one game where the Eagles have

820
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 4: an elite group of corners on the outside, you have

821
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 4: at this point no receivers, Like you just know Valdez

822
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 4: scant was gonna get locked up after he puts up

823
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 4: one hundred and seventeen the week before or the game before,

824
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 4: I should say, like, so, I actually think the circumstances

825
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:31,439
Speaker 4: for Kelsey, like the environment is probably better than any

826
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,919
Speaker 4: at least than the other two Super Bowls.

827
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 3: That he's played in. So I don't, I don't, I

828
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 3: don't mind.

829
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 4: And he had I mean, but I mean, if you

830
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 4: had Kelsey, anytime touchdowns probably still the way to go.

831
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 4: He scored in eleven of his past fourteen postseason games.

832
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 4: He scored in each of his past five postseason games,

833
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 4: seven of his past eight postseason games.

834
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: All this dude does is score touchdowns in the playoffs.

835
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 4: But because all he does is do that, now you're

836
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 4: talking about like his anytime touchdown is minus one twenty five.

837
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 4: He's had ninety ninety plus yards in six of his

838
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 4: last seven playoff games, and he gets ninety plus yards

839
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 4: in a touchdown. This Eagle's defense is pretty good. So Mahomes,

840
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 4: you know, they it could be a game where Mahomes

841
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 4: throws one touchdown, it's to Kelsey.

842
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 3: He throws for like two hundred and sixty yards. Maybe

843
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 3: there's a turnover involved.

844
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 4: Maybe Pacheco has a good game, but you're not gonna

845
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,959
Speaker 4: go check go over Kelsey unless Pachecko goes bonkers.

846
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 3: Like you said, Williams didn't get it.

847
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 4: So I think I do see some scenarios, especially because

848
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 4: like I said, Mahomes has his already and there's this

849
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 4: whole all the talk is Kelsey versus Kelsey. So I

850
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 4: do think and he might have like some celebration cooked

851
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 4: up for if he does get in the end Z.

852
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 4: Like I do think there's a lot of like this

853
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 4: is especially at sixteen to what I mean Cooper Cup

854
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 4: for context, Cooper Cup, you know, as kind of that

855
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 4: alpha dog receiver. Obviously Chase was involved as well, but

856
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup is that alpha receiver in that Super Bowl

857
00:41:57,760 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 4: was six to one last year.

858
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 3: Kelsey is sixteen to what.

859
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 4: Isn't that big a difference in terms of, Okay, this

860
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 4: guy can put up you know, one hundred plus and

861
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 4: and a touchdown or even two, I.

862
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 3: Don't think so. So I like the value here at Kelsey.

863
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 4: Now he could go down as as the week progresses,

864
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,919
Speaker 4: but sixteen to one on FanDuel is an amazing.

865
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 3: Price I think for for Kelsey MVP.

866
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: Only other thing I wanted to bring up was kernerd.

867
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 2: You guys are gonna have your prop cluse. I'm sure

868
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 2: you're talk about this more. You'll talk specifically about Sanders.

869
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: But Sanders at C plus one seventy five to be

870
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 2: the leading rusher, that's how you're already down.

871
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 3: So we'll see, Yeah, we'll see. Yeah, we'll see how

872
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 3: that goes.

873
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 2: All right. I like Sanders props in general. I think

874
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 2: he's gonna have a big game. But you guys will

875
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 2: cover more of that. And that's about all I had.

876
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, let me see, do I have anything else?

877
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 3: Oh, just talk real quick.

878
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 4: Some of the general uh trends for like, you know,

879
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 4: super well, I think you've mentioned this before. Usually we

880
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 4: see kind of like an uneventful first quarter and then

881
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 4: I know, both of these teams are really good in

882
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 4: the second quarter at scoring. So I mean, if you're

883
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 4: one of those people that likes to bet, you know,

884
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 4: over unders or the race to whatever.

885
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, first quarter unders are like, yeah, unbelievable. In Super Bowls,

886
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 2: you come out teams are a little more conservative. I

887
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 2: don't think that might that's gonna be the case here.

888
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: It's not the Eagles M O and the Chiefs have

889
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 2: been here before, and I think that they want to

890
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 2: jump out, but historically it's very slow starting with a

891
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 2: lot of nerves. It's like long pregame, and then it

892
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 2: really opens up late. So if that does indeed happen,

893
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 2: look for a live over. If you like the over

894
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 2: and you're just a little hesitant now and want a

895
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 2: better number of like something under forty eight, if there

896
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 2: is a slow start, as there's been historically over and

897
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 2: over again in the Super Bowl, then you can probably

898
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 2: get a much better number if that trend holds. So, yeah,

899
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 2: they're starts, are I been happening very often in the

900
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 2: Super Bowls?

901
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:08,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, So like what you could do really is, if

902
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 4: you like the over, you can try to bank on

903
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 4: a slow start. Maybe you also bank play the first

904
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 4: quarter under, but you can you could kind of look

905
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 4: to add to your position with a you know, getting

906
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 4: a live over maybe after the first quarter ends, or

907
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 4: you know, as it's kind of going downhill, slow paced

908
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 4: or just slow starting, and then both the Eagles and

909
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 4: the Chiefs are top three in scoring in the second

910
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 4: quarter and then so then you could kind of that

911
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 4: then you're kind of looking better. And then if you

912
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 4: like the for anyone who likes the under, you know,

913
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 4: you could you might have another opportunity to get a

914
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 4: better number because there's a you know, Eagles average twelve

915
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 4: and twelve point four a game in the second in

916
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 4: quarter and the Chiefs ten point one. Both of those

917
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 4: are top three. Only only three teams average double digits,

918
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 4: So it could you could have like twenty seven points

919
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 4: by halftime. Uh, and then you know, hit the hit

920
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 4: the under that and you might you may get a

921
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 4: better number than the fifty one, even if it does

922
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 4: close at fifty one. And then you know, Shanta City's

923
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 4: still good in the second half twelve point seven, fourth,

924
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 4: Philadelphia though, ten point six, fifteenth and now a lot

925
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 4: of that they've kind of taken their foot off the

926
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,280
Speaker 4: gas in the second half. But you know, if Philly

927
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 4: does have a lead, they're still going to try to

928
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 4: run in the second half. If they don't, that probably

929
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 4: means this game is not that high scoring to begin with,

930
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 4: because you know, that would probably just mean the Chiefs

931
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 4: have a lead if Phillies not, if Phillies having to

932
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 4: go pass having in the second half, So either way,

933
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 4: just wanted to kind of throw those out there for

934
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 4: people who might be looking to.

935
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 3: Go quarter by quarter.

936
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 4: First half in general is eleven five and one to

937
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 4: the under over the past sixteen, averaging a differential three

938
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,720
Speaker 4: point eight points per game. The under first half hundred

939
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 4: for the Super Bowl is hit in four in a row,

940
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 4: six of the last seven, eight too and one in

941
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 4: the past eleven, and the second half completely even nine

942
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:06,760
Speaker 4: to nine over the past eighteen. Those numbers courtesy of our.

943
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 2: We've had some even sane fourth quarters. Insane fourth quarters

944
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 2: of the world with like twenty eight thirty five points. Yeah,

945
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 2: just keep that in mind as you're watching the game

946
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 2: and have fun. This is at the time where you

947
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 2: can have It's the last football game. Don't bet over

948
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 2: your head, but you want to throw in a few

949
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 2: lotteries on first this is the only time I do

950
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 2: it first touchdown. Look here listen to their the prop

951
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 2: episode Go to Action Newberk dot com. Tons of content

952
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 2: that'll help guide you to when you're making those bets.

953
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 2: Like you said, make them a little more educated and

954
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 2: plus TV decisions. But have fun with it and hopefully

955
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 2: this is the last podcast for the last football podcast

956
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 2: to me of the year. Appreciate everyone listening to their

957
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: big bets on campus and then this. We had amazing

958
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 2: years in both. You just absolutely crushed it on this.

959
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,959
Speaker 2: We just we gat out winners all year, and that's

960
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 2: what you know. Ultimately this is all about. So I'm

961
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 2: glad that we could just help people make money and

962
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: have fun while doing it. And appreciate everyone that's long

963
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 2: for the ride every year, and we'll be back. I'll

964
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 2: be back again next year, hopefully better than ever, and

965
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 2: let's close the year out strong. I appreciate everyone who

966
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 2: listens and spreads the word, and all the audio team

967
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 2: and video team on the back end, and of course you.

968
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 2: And it was fun partner, because.

969
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 4: There are always always a pleasure stuck and yeah, shouts

970
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 4: to our guy Matt Mitchell, who painstaking we produces every

971
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,280
Speaker 4: one of these and tells us to stop talking five

972
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 4: or ten minutes sooner each time because we're always going over.

973
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 2: Did we make it? What was our time here? He said?

974
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 2: An hour?

975
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 4: I'm still going We got You've got a couple of minutes,

976
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 4: got a couple of minutes, fifty got close.

977
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 3: But yeah, really appreciate everyone for listening.

978
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 4: I'll still be here again, Curder and I will have

979
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 4: the proper will Lose episode that will be out Tuesday,

980
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 4: so look out for that again. The early Props episode

981
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 4: with Curder and I already out, Trivia episode Stuck Abrams

982
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 4: and I already out And as you know, you can

983
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 4: find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two. You can find

984
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 4: me at Chris Raybond and rete those same handles on

985
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 4: the free award winning Action at network at where you

986
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:14,439
Speaker 4: can follow our bets or track your own Until next time,

987
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 4: Let's get this money, Let's go. Path Action Network reminds

988
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 4: you please gamble responsibly.

989
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

990
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

991
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler