Speaker 1: The volume. The thrill and excitement of March Mania is here.
Speaker 1: In DraftKings Sportsbook, one of America's top rated sportsbook apps,
Speaker 1: is giving new customers a shot to turn five bucks
Speaker 1: into one hundred and fifty dollars instantly in bonus bets
Speaker 1: with any college basketball bet. You could bet on absolutely anything.
Speaker 1: If you want to bet on Yukon or North Carolina,
Speaker 1: fans can get in on this year to bet them
Speaker 1: to win the title, all the way down to teams
Speaker 1: like Stetson and Longwood to win the title. You can
Speaker 1: even bet individual seeds to win the title. You can
Speaker 1: bet anything on DraftKings for the tournament. Download the Draftking
Speaker 1: Sportsbook app and use code hoops. New customers can bet
Speaker 1: five bucks to get one hundred and fifty dollars instantly
Speaker 1: in bonus bets only at Draftking Sportsbook with code hoops.
Speaker 1: That's hops. The Crown is yours gambling problem called one
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or in West Virginia is a www
Speaker 1: dot one eight hundred gambler dot net in New York
Speaker 1: called eight seven seven eight Hope and Why or text
Speaker 1: hope and Why to four six seven three six nine
Speaker 1: in Connecticut help is available for problem gambling called eight
Speaker 1: eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of
Speaker 1: Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas twenty one plus. Age
Speaker 1: varies by jurisdiction, Boyden, Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty eight hours after issuance. See dkang dot com
Speaker 1: slash b ball for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and
Speaker 1: responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to hoop tonight. You're
Speaker 1: at the volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody. Hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys are having an incredible week. Just a quick show
Speaker 1: this morning since we're going live on YouTube tonight for
Speaker 1: Warriors Lakers. Remember final buzzer Warriors Lakers live on YouTube tonight.
Speaker 1: But because of that, quickly this morning, we're just gonna
Speaker 1: hit the next two teams in my contender rankings. If
Speaker 1: you guys remember yesterday we did ten, nine and eight.
Speaker 1: Ten was a little bit of cheating. We did Heat
Speaker 1: Warriors as like our establishment kind of situation there, and
Speaker 1: then at nine we had the Minnesota Timberwolves, and at
Speaker 1: eight we had the Milwaukee Bucks hitting seven and six. Today,
Speaker 1: you guys are the Joe four we get started. Subscribe
Speaker 1: to our brand new YouTube channel so you don't miss
Speaker 1: any more of our videos. Don't forget about a podcast
Speaker 1: feed wherever get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also
Speaker 1: super helpful of the LEVA rating and a review on
Speaker 1: that front. Follow me on Twitter, underscore jsnlts you guys,
Speaker 1: don't miss show announcements, as well as the film threads
Speaker 1: that I do from time to time. And the last
Speaker 1: but not least, keep dropping mailback questions and the YouTube comments.
Speaker 1: We're gonna hit some mail bags later on in the week.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So number seven and again,
Speaker 1: I have to throw this obligatory note out there because
Speaker 1: this happens every single year I've done this. This is my
Speaker 1: third playoff run that I'm getting ready to cover with
Speaker 1: the volume, and my fourth since I've had a daily podcast,
Speaker 1: And this is the most common bit of pushback that
Speaker 1: I get. I don't re act super strongly to regular
Speaker 1: season standings.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: I think that there are some specific trends that matter,
Speaker 1: especially as it pertains to the top teams in the league.
Speaker 1: Like I'm a big believer that if you are a
Speaker 1: veteran team that has a top tier superstar and you
Speaker 1: dominate the regular season. That is usually a very strong
Speaker 1: indicator of a team that has a real strong chance
Speaker 1: to win the title. Which is, by the way, why
Speaker 1: Denver and Boston are gonna be near the top on
Speaker 1: my list, or at those two teams are obviously the
Speaker 1: top of my list. I'm never going to bump teams
Speaker 1: like that down for teams that had less impressive seasons
Speaker 1: in the standings. That said pretty much everything beneath that tier.
Speaker 1: Any team that doesn't check those three boxes again, like
Speaker 1: veteran superstar, veteran, consistent veteran presences in the rotation, and
Speaker 1: dominates the regular season. Outside of that specific archetype, everything
Speaker 1: else to me is kind of scrunched together. And I'm
Speaker 1: looking at your personnel, I'm looking at your strengths and weaknesses.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at how you would favor in specific matchups,
Speaker 1: and so yes, number seven, I have a team that
Speaker 1: has dominated the regular season this year, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Speaker 1: They are fifty three and twenty five, currently the three
Speaker 1: seed in the Western Conference, although only one game back
Speaker 1: of first and still within striking distance there for the season.
Speaker 1: They are fourth in offense and sixth in defense. Their
Speaker 1: strengths their starting lineup has just an enormous amount of
Speaker 1: offensive skill. Shake Gildas Alexander has been one of the
Speaker 1: best primary initiators in the league this year. These are
Speaker 1: his numbers on Synergy for play types including passes in
Speaker 1: the three primary individual creation play types. Pick and roll
Speaker 1: including passes one point one five points per possession that's
Speaker 1: literally awesome. Isolation one point one to three points per
Speaker 1: possession including passes, that's literally awesome. One point two zero
Speaker 1: points per post up including passes all three categories. Is
Speaker 1: in the eighty f fourth percentile or better for volumes,
Speaker 1: so he's been one of the very best versatile shot
Speaker 1: creators in the league this year. Jalen Williams one of
Speaker 1: my favorite young players in the league. He's also been
Speaker 1: a very good individual creator. He himself is at one
Speaker 1: point one zero points per pick and roll including passes.
Speaker 1: It's also at zero point nine to six points per ISO,
Speaker 1: which is pretty solid. He's only posted up four times
Speaker 1: all season, although he's had a point per possession there
Speaker 1: as well. He's converting spot up possessions as the second
Speaker 1: side guy at one point two to one points per possession,
Speaker 1: which is insane, and he's been the second best pull
Speaker 1: up shooter in basketball this season minimum three hundred attempts.
Speaker 1: Although there's been some jockeying around, CJ. McCollum has actually
Speaker 1: left everybody. He's now in first place. Jalen Williams is
Speaker 1: in second, James Harden is now in third place. He's
Speaker 1: also an incredible downhill athletic force, a guy that can
Speaker 1: bring some real matchup issues to the equation. Chet Holmgren
Speaker 1: is the ideal spacing big. He's shooting forty one percent
Speaker 1: on unguarded catch and shoot jumpers this year. Really unlocks
Speaker 1: a lot of this stuff in their five out offense.
Speaker 1: It's also been one of the best rolemen in the
Speaker 1: league this year. There are eleven players that have logged
Speaker 1: at least two hundred role man possessions. Chet is converting
Speaker 1: those at one point twenty seven points per possession, which
Speaker 1: ranks third on that list. Lou Dort shoots forty five
Speaker 1: percent on unguarded catch and shoot jumpers. Giddy is the
Speaker 1: one guy that kind of has some offensive weakness, especially
Speaker 1: off the ball, in that group, but he's shooting a
Speaker 1: lot better than he used to. Since the All Star Break,
Speaker 1: he's shooting forty percent on catch and shoot threes. Forty percent.
Speaker 1: That's really damn good. That's what's at one point two
Speaker 1: points per shot. That's that's a really good result for them.
Speaker 1: And then he's also a really good second side creator,
Speaker 1: especially when one of Shay or Jalen go to the bench.
Speaker 1: He's a seventy eighth percentile pick and role player including passes.
Speaker 1: The Oklaoma City Thunder have the second best half court
Speaker 1: offense in basketball according to Cleaning the Glass, the fourth
Speaker 1: most productive transition offense, which takes us to their defensive strength.
Speaker 1: This is an aggressive, playmaking defense. They use their speed,
Speaker 1: they are in passing lanes. They are constantly ford aggressive
Speaker 1: to try to force turnovers and to get out in transition.
Speaker 1: They force sixteen turnovers per game, which is the most
Speaker 1: in the NBA, A big feeder for that transition attack
Speaker 1: that we talked about. They are the only team in
Speaker 1: the NBA this year that scores at least twenty points
Speaker 1: per game off of turnovers. So this is a very fast,
Speaker 1: very skilled offense, a playmaking defense that loves to get
Speaker 1: out in transition. I do not think they're gonna have
Speaker 1: any issues scoring the basketball when they get into the postseason.
Speaker 1: Their weaknesses, though, all of that aggression in the passing
Speaker 1: lanes on defense gives quality three point looks, especially the
Speaker 1: teams that can be calm with good ball handling and
Speaker 1: make quality reads to beat that aggression. They give up
Speaker 1: the eighth most threes in the league this year in
Speaker 1: terms of three point attempts per game. They are also
Speaker 1: a truly bad defensive rebounding team. They have the second
Speaker 1: worst defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA. They allow an
Speaker 1: offensive rebound on more than three thirty percent of their
Speaker 1: opponent's misses, and when they get into clutch situations when
Speaker 1: the scores within five with at least with less than
Speaker 1: five minutes left, that number rises to almost forty percent
Speaker 1: of opponents misses that are getting turned into offensive rebounds.
Speaker 1: They are also really reliant on jump shooting they have
Speaker 1: they're the fourth most frequent jump shooting team in the
Speaker 1: NBA in terms of couwnty jump shots they take her
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions. They are super young and inexperienced. Every
Speaker 1: single one of the eight players who have logged over
Speaker 1: one thousand minutes for them this year is twenty five
Speaker 1: or younger. Four of those guys, including three starters, are
Speaker 1: twenty two or younger. Now, what a lot of people
Speaker 1: are gonna say is what about the twenty twelve Thunder
Speaker 1: And what they don't realize is the core was young there,
Speaker 1: but they had a lot of veteran role players in
Speaker 1: the rotation. They had three vets in their top eight,
Speaker 1: including Kendrick Perkins, Tablo Cephalosha and Nick Collison. And then
Speaker 1: at the deadline they added a thirty seven year old
Speaker 1: Derek Fisher who played in every single playoff game for them.
Speaker 2: So they had young.
Speaker 1: Stars, but their role players were actually a pretty veteran
Speaker 1: group aside from like Serge Baka, so they they're not
Speaker 1: really the same type of team that that twenty twelve
Speaker 1: Thunder team was. Then we also have the reality of
Speaker 1: their size predicament. They have tons of length and quickness.
Speaker 1: That's actually strength of their roster in my opinion. They're
Speaker 1: the long arms everywhere guys that can compete on the perimeter,
Speaker 1: tons and tons of foot speed. Lou Dort is actually,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, in that top tier of perimeter defenders
Speaker 1: in the NBA. He just has an incredibly low center
Speaker 1: of gravity, and he could beat people to spots and
Speaker 1: force them to shoot over the top. He's really good
Speaker 1: at disrupting the shooting pocket to force missus against pull
Speaker 1: up shooters. I think that's gonna be really valuable in
Speaker 1: the Western Conference playoff run when you have to go
Speaker 1: through guys like Lebron, James Paul, George Kawhi, Leonard, Kevin Durant.
Speaker 1: You get the point, Just lots of forwards that you
Speaker 1: have to contend with out there. Lou Dort is a
Speaker 1: great option there. But outside of lou Dort and Jalen Williams,
Speaker 1: Shay's kind of thin, Josh Gitty's kind of thin, chet
Speaker 1: Holmgren is kind of thin.
Speaker 2: They do not have a power forward on the roster.
Speaker 1: They've confronted that issue by going with two big looks,
Speaker 1: including jay Lynn Williams off the bench next to Chet Holmgren.
Speaker 1: But those groups have not nearly scored the ball as
Speaker 1: well as their smaller lineups. And you know, a big
Speaker 1: thing here is we're just looking at NBA history those
Speaker 1: last two segments, specifically their lack of size and their
Speaker 1: lack of experience. The only team really that has won
Speaker 1: despite a lack of size. In recent NBA history is
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two Warriors. And again, every time we
Speaker 1: run into that specific predicament, I always remind people Steph
Speaker 1: Curry is the exception that makes the rule. He's the
Speaker 1: one guy who was so damn skilled that he could
Speaker 1: lift up a physically limited roster to the point where
Speaker 1: they were able to succeed the way that they did.
Speaker 1: And even then, that team was really long and athletic
Speaker 1: on the perimeter and had a ton of veteran presences
Speaker 1: in the lineup, very very different than this Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: thunder team. NBA history tells us, when you are young
Speaker 1: and when you are small, you're probably not going to win.
Speaker 1: That's what NBA history tells us. They are going to
Speaker 1: run consistently into matchups that look to attack their thinner wings,
Speaker 1: their thinner front line. I think, I think that foul
Speaker 1: trouble is going to be a significant issue for them
Speaker 1: in that front court. It's one of the things I
Speaker 1: have for their specific playoff path, like, is what does
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City need to do to make it all the
Speaker 1: way to the Promised Land. One Shane needs to play
Speaker 1: like a superstar in the playoffs. That's a big test.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of players who have dominated NBA
Speaker 1: regular seasons and have gotten to the postseason and it
Speaker 1: hasn't translated. There's a long list of players on that list.
Speaker 1: I expect Shae to succeed in that in that test.
Speaker 1: I think Shae's versatility in that he doesn't do the
Speaker 1: same thing every time, he's a lot more unpredictable, and
Speaker 1: the fact that he competes on the defensive end. I
Speaker 1: think those two things are going to maintain Shay's impact
Speaker 1: when he gets into the postseason. But he's a little
Speaker 1: heliocentric in the sense that he can attack and from
Speaker 1: the same spots on the floor with the same type
Speaker 1: of dribble combinations time and time again. And I do
Speaker 1: think some perimeter defenders could figure some stuff out over
Speaker 1: the course of the series to better anticipate his changes
Speaker 1: of pace and direction and try to cut him off.
Speaker 1: That's just the challenge. By the way, I'm not saying
Speaker 1: this is not like a Oshay has a weakness. What
Speaker 1: I'm saying is every single playoff a kind of test
Speaker 1: challenges every player's strengths and weaknesses. That's literally what the
Speaker 1: playoffs do they are the grand revealer of what you
Speaker 1: are as a basketball player.
Speaker 2: Well, you're gonna find.
Speaker 1: Out what Shay's real strengths are and what his real
Speaker 1: weaknesses are. I'm excited. I think he's gonna do well,
Speaker 1: but we the Thunder will need him to do extremely
Speaker 1: well to have any chance to get through this. He's
Speaker 1: gonna need to play like flat out a top tier superstar,
Speaker 1: meaning at the same level as Jokic or Jannis did
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty one and twenty twenty three three
Speaker 1: playoff runs. Same with Jalen Williams. Needs to be a
Speaker 1: legitimate backup start. They have to shoot the ball well.
Speaker 1: Like I talked about earlier, They're the fourth most frequent
Speaker 1: jump shooting team in the NBA, so very reliant on
Speaker 1: jump shot results, So they're gonna have to shoot the
Speaker 1: ball well. Chet has to avoid foul trouble, which I
Speaker 1: think is gonna be a big deal in some of
Speaker 1: their bigger matchups that they'll run into. They just have
Speaker 1: to find a way to hold up physically. Really exciting
Speaker 1: young team, a team that I'm a huge believer in
Speaker 1: in the long term. But this is just a simple
Speaker 1: matter of NBA history. This to me, is a young
Speaker 1: team that is dominating in the regular season at this phase.
Speaker 1: Now they have to go through the playoff lumps. That's
Speaker 1: the process. Dominate regular season, take playoff lumps, get over
Speaker 1: the top. That's how it works. There's never been a
Speaker 1: team that's been able to skip those steps. That's not
Speaker 1: how it works. There's never been a team that was
Speaker 1: able to go dominate the regular season as a young team,
Speaker 1: walk into the playoffs and kill everybody and win. That
Speaker 1: just doesn't happen. There's always lumps along the way. This
Speaker 1: is Oklahoma City's first first attempt at that process.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Moving on to number six in my list of contenders
Speaker 1: for this playoff run, the Los Angeles Lakers. Now looking
Speaker 1: at their season wide numbers is super confusing because they've
Speaker 1: been three completely different teams this year. From training camp
Speaker 1: to when they hoisted the n Season Tournament Trophy, they
Speaker 1: were fourteen and nine, which was the eighth best record
Speaker 1: in the league at the time fifteen and nine if
Speaker 1: you include the Ncason Tournament win. But that was a
Speaker 1: defensive minded team. They were seventh in defensive rating, eighth
Speaker 1: in defensive rebounding percentage, and twenty second in offense. Right,
Speaker 1: then we go into this terrible n season tournament malaise
Speaker 1: after they hoist the trophy. They just they played like
Speaker 1: shit for a month.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: They go three to ten, twenty fourth and offense twenty
Speaker 1: first in defense, lost to a bunch of bad teams.
Speaker 2: It was ugly.
Speaker 1: But this January seventh run from there to this point
Speaker 1: the twenty eight and fifteen fifth best record in the
Speaker 1: league over that span. But it's a fundamentally different type
Speaker 1: of success than what they had in the early season run.
Speaker 1: Remember early season, good defensive rating, good defensive rebounding team,
Speaker 1: bad offense. Now fourth in offense, twentieth in defense, and
Speaker 1: twentieth in defensive rebounding percentage. So a completely could not
Speaker 1: be more different than what they were to start the season.
Speaker 1: They are outscoring teams, and they're not defending very well,
Speaker 1: and they are not rebounding very well. So even in
Speaker 1: the two separate stretches where they were a good team
Speaker 1: this year, they were good in very different ways. I
Speaker 1: am choosing to look at them as the later version
Speaker 1: is the offensive minded version that can't defend, rather than
Speaker 1: the defensive minded version that couldn't score. Just because we've
Speaker 1: just for one, it's a much larger sample size, it's
Speaker 1: more than half the season, and that more or less
Speaker 1: is the personnel direction that they've gone to as Vanderbilt
Speaker 1: obviously has been hurt and it's been a lot more
Speaker 1: Ruby Hotcha Murrow, who is a better offensive player than
Speaker 1: he is a defensive player. So they're straits. They have
Speaker 1: one of the best two way front courts you could
Speaker 1: ever hope to have in a playoff run twenty six
Speaker 1: and fourteen, in playoff games that both Lebron James and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis were able to finish healthy. There were two
Speaker 1: games against the Phoenix Suns, specifically Game four and Game five,
Speaker 1: that where Anthony Davis was unable to finish the game
Speaker 1: because of his groin injury. But in the games where
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis and Lebron were both able to finish twenty
Speaker 1: six and fourteen, they're six to one in playoff series
Speaker 1: that Lebron James and Anthony Davis were both able to
Speaker 1: finish healthy.
Speaker 2: Yes, you heard that correctly.
Speaker 1: Denver's win against the Lakers last year was the very
Speaker 1: first time a team beat Lebron James and Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: in a playoff series except for the one time that
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis got hurt, and when he got hurt, the
Speaker 1: Lakers were up to one in the series. So they
Speaker 1: can scale up on both ends of the floor with
Speaker 1: their physicality, especially when things degenerate into a rock fight.
Speaker 1: That is a huge advantage for them. They will have
Speaker 1: consistent matchup advantages on the offensive end and should score
Speaker 1: the ball relatively easy in most matchups. They have an
Speaker 1: inside out attack all year long. They've been a great
Speaker 1: paint offense, third in points in the paint per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions for the season, second in points in the
Speaker 1: paint per one hundred possessions since January seventh. They are
Speaker 1: second in three point percentage since January seventh. It's very
Speaker 1: catch and shoot heavy attack. They only take twenty pull
Speaker 1: up jumpers a game, which is the ninth fewest in
Speaker 1: the NBA, but they take a bunch of catch and
Speaker 1: shoot jump shots, and they have a sixty one percent
Speaker 1: effective field goal percentage on catch and shoot jumpers since
Speaker 1: January seventh, which is the second best mark in the league.
Speaker 2: But they're not.
Speaker 1: Reliant on jump shooting. They are twenty eighth in jump
Speaker 1: shot frequency. The only two teams that attempt fewer jump
Speaker 1: shots per possession than the Lakers are the Toronto Raptors
Speaker 1: and the Washington Wizards. So to put it simply, no
Speaker 1: team in this playoff runt will rely on jump shot
Speaker 1: variants less than this Los Angeles Lakers team. But when
Speaker 1: they do shoot, they are one of the most efficient
Speaker 1: jump shooting teams, So that to me translates really well
Speaker 1: to them on the offense.
Speaker 2: E end.
Speaker 1: To put it simply, I am a huge believer in
Speaker 1: their offense when we get to the postseason. But there's
Speaker 1: a weakness there, and the weakness is they have not
Speaker 1: defended or rebounded well over this run. They are giving
Speaker 1: up the fourth most three point attempts since January seventh,
Speaker 1: the seventh most three point makes since January seventh. They've
Speaker 1: been the seventh worst paint defense since January seventh, So
Speaker 1: they're not doing really anything well on defense right now.
Speaker 1: Their starting lineup is rebounding well, thankfully, so like that
Speaker 1: defensive rebounding percentage, it's mainly the non starting lineups. The
Speaker 1: Ruey Lebron Anthony Davis frontcourt is rebounding well. Every other
Speaker 1: lineup is getting smashed on the glass, which points me
Speaker 1: to the simple solution for the Lakers. I say simple
Speaker 1: because it's easy to do, but it's difficult in execution,
Speaker 1: and that is they're going to have to scale up
Speaker 1: the minutes.
Speaker 2: Of their starters. In high leverage situations.
Speaker 1: You're gonna need ad Lebron, Austin d Low, potentially even
Speaker 1: Ruey to get up into the mid forties for minutes
Speaker 1: per game, which could lead to fatigue and could lead
Speaker 1: to some of those things suffering. Now, if you're a
Speaker 1: Lakers fan and you're looking for some sort of silver lining,
Speaker 1: here are a couple ones for you. With Anthony Davis on
Speaker 1: the floor, since February first, which is a twenty eight
Speaker 1: game span, they have a one to ten point eight
Speaker 1: defensive rating, which is actually really good. It's been the
Speaker 1: non ad minutes that have been crushed. So if you're
Speaker 1: looking for a way to talk yourself into a better
Speaker 1: Laker defense when you get to the postseason, it's hey.
Speaker 1: For basically a third of the season when Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: has been on the floor, we've been good defensively. We
Speaker 1: scale up ads minutes should be fine, right, But again,
Speaker 1: like I talked about earlier, as you scale minutes up,
Speaker 1: effort level tends to dip a little bit with it.
Speaker 1: Another small sample size silver lining in the Lakers last
Speaker 1: eleven games, they are sixth in defensive rating and seventh
Speaker 1: in defensive rebounding. Some good teams in that stretch to
Speaker 1: the seventy six Ers, the Pacers, the Bucks, the Pacers,
Speaker 1: the Cavs, and the Timberwolves all in that span, but
Speaker 1: there have been five bad teams in that span as well,
Speaker 1: and it's just way too small of a sample size.
Speaker 1: So I don't see that as enough to convince me
Speaker 1: that the Lakers are going to be a good defense.
Speaker 1: I need to se something from them when we get
Speaker 1: into that first round to believe that that's something that
Speaker 1: they can do.
Speaker 2: So really, I think the.
Speaker 1: Lakers are just gonna have to scale up their starters
Speaker 1: minutes and really lean into trying to outscore teams.
Speaker 2: And that's trouble.
Speaker 1: They do not have a quality perimeter defender in the
Speaker 1: starting group. Austin Reeves kind of like Malik Beasley for
Speaker 1: the Bucks, has done an admirable job trying to compete
Speaker 1: defensively as best as he can, but both of those
Speaker 1: guys are just in a physical limitation in most matchups
Speaker 1: on the perimeter. And then lastly, this is one of
Speaker 1: the biggest like matchup specific weaknesses I'm concerned about for
Speaker 1: the Lakers the Clippers. If you guys remember, the Clippers
Speaker 1: were the last team to like really confine, like confound
Speaker 1: the Laker offense. The Lakers have had games where they
Speaker 1: haven't scored as well since January seventh, but it's usually
Speaker 1: like they didn't shoot well or something along those lines,
Speaker 1: or Lebron had a bad night, something along those lines.
Speaker 1: The Clippers game, in particular, was a night where I
Speaker 1: saw the Laker offense literally stall out, and the reason
Speaker 1: why was the Clippers switch. And while Austin Reeves and
Speaker 1: D'Angelo Russell are really good offensive players, while Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: and Ruey Hat Tramura are really good offensive players, the
Speaker 1: problem specifically is Lebron is really the only guy in
Speaker 1: that lineup that can consistently and effectively break down a
Speaker 1: switching defense. That's a concern. Anthony Davis not a very
Speaker 1: good one on one player anymore. Austin Reeves not like
Speaker 1: straight up against a good defender in one on one situations.
Speaker 1: That's not really his game. He's a ball screen player, right,
Speaker 1: he can make plays in one on one, but not
Speaker 1: at a super super high level. D'Angelo Russell, same sort
Speaker 1: of thing. Ruey Hachimura literally needs a mismatch now. That'll
Speaker 1: be something that they'll attempts to do in those matchups.
Speaker 1: They will attempt to get smaller players on RUI, get
Speaker 1: smaller players on AD, get smaller players on Lebron. But
Speaker 1: in practice, when they've run against a lot of switching
Speaker 1: this year, their offense has stalled out. If you guys
Speaker 1: remember in that Clippers game, the only reason they broke
Speaker 1: it open in the fourth cour was Lebron started picking
Speaker 1: on Daniel Tice and was making his pull up three
Speaker 1: point shot and then everything kind of fell apart from
Speaker 1: there for the Clippers. But that's why I think in
Speaker 1: terms of matchups, that's gonna be something that I think
Speaker 1: the Lakers are gonna run into some issues with When
Speaker 1: they run into switching defenses.
Speaker 2: It just puts a lot of pressure.
Speaker 1: On Lebron James to bully guys in the post, to
Speaker 1: pull centers out to the perimeter and beat them. And
Speaker 1: that's just a lot to ask. And so I think
Speaker 1: that even as good as their offense can be, I
Speaker 1: think that matchups are gonna play a big role in
Speaker 1: their success when they get to the postseason. So again,
Speaker 1: like I viewed them as a classic strengths and weaknesses team,
Speaker 1: all these teams in this tier, by the way, and
Speaker 1: I had a lot of Minnesota fans complaining at me yesterday,
Speaker 1: like how can you have Minnesota all the way down
Speaker 1: at nine? I want to be clear. One two is
Speaker 1: you guys can guess who that's gonna be. But three, four, five, six, seven,
Speaker 1: and eight and nine are all this close. You could
Speaker 1: easily talk me into Minnesota being better than the team
Speaker 1: I have in third. You can also talk me into
Speaker 1: the team that third being at nine. They're all this close.
Speaker 1: So if you're looking at this as like Jason thinks
Speaker 1: the Lakers are way better than the Timberwolves, that's not
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. I view the Lakers as a slightly
Speaker 1: bigger playoff threat than the Timberwolves because of some of
Speaker 1: my long standing beliefs in the way that the NBA
Speaker 1: playoffs tend to play out. That's all this is. So
Speaker 1: we're splitting hairs in a lot of different ways Laker's path.
Speaker 1: What do they need to do to win the title?
Speaker 1: First of all, Lebron James and Anthony Davis need to
Speaker 1: play like it's twenty twenty again. That means Lebron in
Speaker 1: ad consistently hitting jump shots over the top. Lebron's held
Speaker 1: up his end of the bargain for the most part
Speaker 1: there this season, but Anthony Davis has not shot the
Speaker 1: ball well for the most part this year. Specifically with Lebron,
Speaker 1: that's a big part of them beating switching defenses. He's
Speaker 1: gonna have to hit shots over the top. Jared Vanderbilt,
Speaker 1: I think, has to come back to give them any
Speaker 1: sort of real chance against some of the better offensive
Speaker 1: teams in the West. Vanderbilt is the only guy on
Speaker 1: the Lakers roster that can incredibly guard Luka Doncic. He's
Speaker 1: gonna be the only guy on the Lakers roster that
Speaker 1: cancredibly guard Jamal Murray.
Speaker 2: So like, specifically.
Speaker 1: Denver, I put Denver, Phoenix, Dallas and the Clippers are
Speaker 1: the four teams where I think they're gonna need Jared
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt defensively to have a real chance to beat those
Speaker 1: teams four times out of seven. So obviously Jared Vanderbilt
Speaker 1: coming back is gonna be big. And then last, I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna have to scale minutes up on a
Speaker 1: lot of their starters, which means they're going to have
Speaker 1: to hold up physically. And I mean that from the
Speaker 1: same point of health. I mean like Lebron and Ad
Speaker 1: are just gonna have to do a lot, and it's
Speaker 1: very possible that their bodies break down before they get
Speaker 1: to that point.
Speaker 2: But that's the path.
Speaker 1: Scaling up minutes, holding up physically, Jared Vanderbilt coming back,
Speaker 1: Lebron and AD's jump shots in particular being efficient when
Speaker 1: they get to the postseason, and Lebron just being able
Speaker 1: to help break down those switching defenses. So Lakers at six,
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City Thunder at seven. We're gonna hit the remainder
Speaker 1: five over the course of the rest of this week.
Speaker 1: It's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys for supporting the show. I'll see you
Speaker 1: guys tonight after the final buzzer of Warriors Lakers Live
Speaker 1: on YouTube. The volume