WEBVTT - College Athletes Get Ready to Finally Score

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Charle Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanabek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all parnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, it does feel like

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<v Speaker 1>a big step forward. Tim and I have been kind

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<v Speaker 1>of joking about it, laughing about it, kind of excited

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<v Speaker 1>about it, about Americans being able to now pack their

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<v Speaker 1>bags for European vacations, the EU lifting those travel curbs

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<v Speaker 1>for residents of the U S. However, Tim, non essential

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<v Speaker 1>travel between the US and Canada is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>banned for another month, despite mounting pressure from businesses on

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<v Speaker 1>Justin Trudeau's government to ease and restrictions. And then we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about the UK recording the most coronavirus cases in

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<v Speaker 1>a day since mid February. That Delta variant really making

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<v Speaker 1>death going there. Yeah, let's get into it all with

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Ian last Beata, clinical professor of medicine at n

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<v Speaker 1>y UN's Lango in a medical Center, joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from New York City. Dr LUs Beda, it

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<v Speaker 1>is great to have you with us this afternoon. Help

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<v Speaker 1>us make sense of what exactly is going on with

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<v Speaker 1>the Delta variant in the UK where vaccination rates are

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<v Speaker 1>really high. So happy Friday, everyone, hope everyone is doing well. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The Depta variant is really a concern and on this

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<v Speaker 1>program we've talked about it over the last several weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>really almost a month ago when we noticed cases in

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<v Speaker 1>India where really less than ten percent of the population

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<v Speaker 1>had been vaccinated, which is really a perfect kind of

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<v Speaker 1>Petrie dish to have viral replication and mutations, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen COVID certainly has a predisposition to mutate, and unfortunately

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<v Speaker 1>the Delta variant or the Indian variant, Uh, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>only a more infectious but has more complications, so people

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<v Speaker 1>have a higher viral load before they really feel sick.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of the symptoms are really common cold symptoms,

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<v Speaker 1>and people don't even realize until they deteriorate that they

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<v Speaker 1>have it. Running knows, headache, fever, even cough. It seems

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<v Speaker 1>very much like a common cold, but the viral levels

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<v Speaker 1>are much higher. It's much more transmissible, so that when

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<v Speaker 1>people call for spread it, it's at a much higher level. Fortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>our vaccines so far, the MR and A vaccines um

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<v Speaker 1>appear to be about effective. So this is yet another

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<v Speaker 1>good reason if you haven't been vaccinated, please do get vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>because there's a lot of data that if you do

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<v Speaker 1>get COVID there are short term and long term complications

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<v Speaker 1>that may be problematic, and we can talk about those later. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>And one thing I want to ask you about is

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC came out I believe it was maybe yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>or the day before, and they said that the delta

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<v Speaker 1>that highly transmits vel transmissible COVID incteen variant that first

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<v Speaker 1>came from India, first identified in India, now makes up

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<v Speaker 1>at least ten percent of all US cases. Is that troubling,

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<v Speaker 1>especially as we still need a lot of people vaccinated

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US. It's definitely troubling because there are

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<v Speaker 1>many parts, especially in the Southern States, um due to

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine hesitancy that have not been vaccinated, and so that

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<v Speaker 1>ten percent could certainly grow higher. We know it's a

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<v Speaker 1>dominant strain uh in Europe and the UK, so they've

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<v Speaker 1>they sort of supplanted the UK variant, you know, with

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<v Speaker 1>the delta or Indian variant. So that really is a

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<v Speaker 1>problem because for people who are not vaccinated, there was

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<v Speaker 1>a much higher transmissibility. So, yes, I think that ten

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<v Speaker 1>percent in the US is going to get worse, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a real problem. So what's the guidance

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<v Speaker 1>to all of us who are increasingly walking around with

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<v Speaker 1>no masks out and about in the world. If your

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated did as you said, we're okay, right, we're protected

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<v Speaker 1>against this one. Right. It does look that the mRNA

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines provide about an ad protection. Now, UH. Part of

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<v Speaker 1>the reason that you want to try and get as

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<v Speaker 1>much of the globe vaccinated as can be is because

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<v Speaker 1>you want to break that chain of constant infections. And

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<v Speaker 1>the more viruses replicate, the more chance they have to mutate.

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<v Speaker 1>So the real issue is if that delta variant continues

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<v Speaker 1>to migrate and continues to mutate, there's a significant risk

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<v Speaker 1>that it could become pierce the vaccination protection that's currently

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<v Speaker 1>going on right now, that doesn't appear to be the case.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's an argument for the Southern States or people

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<v Speaker 1>who have not been vaccinated to get vaccinated. And I

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<v Speaker 1>understand there's vaccine hesitancy and things on the internet that

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<v Speaker 1>scare people about, you know, clots and for hility and

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<v Speaker 1>a whole host of things. Vaccines are not a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent safe, but it is much safer to get a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine than to suffer COVID UH and to suffer the

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<v Speaker 1>short term and potentially now we're seeing longer term potential

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<v Speaker 1>consequences of COVID, including perhaps brain effects. So so getting

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated is really key to break that chain of viral replication.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk a little bit about Dr about that doctor less

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<v Speaker 1>better was something I was going to ask you about.

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<v Speaker 1>There's concern that a new COVID study is is sort

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<v Speaker 1>of pointing to a potential loss of tissue from the

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<v Speaker 1>brain um. This is from a warning from Dr Scott Gottlieb,

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<v Speaker 1>former Commissioner of the FDA. He was tweeting about this,

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<v Speaker 1>right So, there is a study in the UK where

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<v Speaker 1>they did look at brain scans and did see a

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<v Speaker 1>loss of brain tissue cortex, which is uh, the outer

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<v Speaker 1>part of the brain, and that's really a concern. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we know the virus really effectual organs. It's really a

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<v Speaker 1>vascular tropic virus, and so it can affect the heart

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<v Speaker 1>with myocarditis, and the lungs with lung clots. And we

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<v Speaker 1>see loss of smell very commonly. Loss of smell and

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<v Speaker 1>taste is one of the most common early indications of

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<v Speaker 1>of the infection with COVID, and part of that maybe

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<v Speaker 1>because of a brain effects actually not peripheral like your

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<v Speaker 1>sense of smell in the nose, but actually CNS or

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<v Speaker 1>brain effects, and that is really terrifying. We don't really

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<v Speaker 1>know long term if people are losing brain tissue what

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to do in the future. Two incidents of

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<v Speaker 1>dementia or other complications longer term another argument to get vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>right right, there's no there's things we don't know about

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<v Speaker 1>the longer term impacts of somebody having COVID. Well, we've

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<v Speaker 1>talked a lot about the toll beyond the death toll,

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<v Speaker 1>beyond the hospitalizations, beyond the numbers of COVID, And there's

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<v Speaker 1>a story in Bloomberg on Bloomberg dot Com today by

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<v Speaker 1>our own Katya Dmitriev and read pick her talking about

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<v Speaker 1>opioids ripping through the US workforce. Death's at a record level,

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<v Speaker 1>a record nine seven hundred and twenty two overdosed deaths

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<v Speaker 1>in the US for the year through November twenty. Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Iain LUs Bader is clinical professor of medicine at n

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<v Speaker 1>y un n Y US Lingo and Medical Center. He

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<v Speaker 1>joins us once again, um, Dr LUs Bader. What we've

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<v Speaker 1>talked so much about this with you. The idea that

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<v Speaker 1>the death toll is from COVID is it's it's beyond

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw from COVID. It's also people in isolation,

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<v Speaker 1>people in loneliness. And I think this wondering what you

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<v Speaker 1>think of these death toll numbers coming from the opioid crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think the COVID nineteen pandemic and home isolation,

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<v Speaker 1>social isolation has taken a real toll on um. Not

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<v Speaker 1>only our lives or psyches, are many, many elements of

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<v Speaker 1>social fabric. And we talked about is in almost a

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<v Speaker 1>humorous way, the that people at home become either hunks, drunks,

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<v Speaker 1>or meaning they they they either embrace the pain and

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<v Speaker 1>the challenge and say I'm going to use this opportunity

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<v Speaker 1>to improve myself, or they say, um, I'm really stressed

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm going to hide whether it's an alcohol or

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<v Speaker 1>food or opioids and really become a little self destructive.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think the healthiest approach is one to reduce

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<v Speaker 1>the availability and doctors should be very cautious about prescribing opioids,

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<v Speaker 1>which I think they are, but also empower patients and say, look,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're feeling down, if you're feeling sad, what's the

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<v Speaker 1>best approach, And candidly, the best approach is to help

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<v Speaker 1>other people turn that inward looking I'm in pain, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>having trouble dealing with things. If possible to look outward

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<v Speaker 1>and say, how can I make a positive impact on

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<v Speaker 1>people around me? On a friend, on a family member?

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<v Speaker 1>Can I make a call? Can I do a good

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<v Speaker 1>deed for someone? That is the most energizing way to

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<v Speaker 1>say I have an important role in life, and um,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm not going to take something to ease my

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<v Speaker 1>own pain and potential risk. Well before the pandemic, the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration was working a lot on addressing the opioid

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<v Speaker 1>epidemic in the United States, And I'm wondering if you

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<v Speaker 1>think that one of the ramifications of the pandemic is

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<v Speaker 1>that we just don't have the attention of this as

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<v Speaker 1>a public health crisis, given the fact that we are

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<v Speaker 1>going through another public health crisis right now. It can

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<v Speaker 1>be your right. Often it's hard for people to do

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<v Speaker 1>multiple multitasking. And the opioid crisis never went away. It's

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<v Speaker 1>been here with us for many years at a good

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<v Speaker 1>point with with with um fentinel and other synthetic substances

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<v Speaker 1>coming over the border, and it's something that we took

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<v Speaker 1>our eye off the ball and need to refocus on it.

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<v Speaker 1>The reasons for it and how to address it, I

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<v Speaker 1>think are absolutely right. I think that's worsened it, but

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<v Speaker 1>it was always with us right that fentanyl and this

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<v Speaker 1>story talks about this UM and they talk about it

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<v Speaker 1>that it can be a hundred times more potent and

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<v Speaker 1>morphine more than opiod. Deaths in the twelve months through

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<v Speaker 1>November stem from such drugs, these synthetic opioids UM and

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<v Speaker 1>they talk about people thinking they're taking cocaine or or

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<v Speaker 1>they're taking xanix and then finding out that it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>not it's got ventinl in it. You know, the interesting

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<v Speaker 1>part is, UM listen. It has a toll in our

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<v Speaker 1>society in so many different ways, but it also has

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<v Speaker 1>an economic impact by these people. The White House once

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<v Speaker 1>gave out a number two and a half trillion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>costing the U. S economy from because of the opioid crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is something that we've got to figure out.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Les Beder, I think we have to interdict the

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<v Speaker 1>flow of synthetic sentinel and opioids which are coming from overseas,

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<v Speaker 1>not not friends sending it. And it's highly addictive and

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<v Speaker 1>highly dangerous, much more potent and much more life threatening.

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<v Speaker 1>And we all should need to address Americans dependence or

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<v Speaker 1>a preference to try that. And so I think we

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<v Speaker 1>need to work at both. And right now there is

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<v Speaker 1>a flood coming in across the border, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>we also need to work on our predilection for using it.

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<v Speaker 1>They want to end on a high note, just in

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<v Speaker 1>the last thirty seconds that we have UM a positive note.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering if one thing that that we can all

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<v Speaker 1>do this weekend to help us all relax as we

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<v Speaker 1>get into summer. I definitely think there are plenty of

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<v Speaker 1>alternative approaches. Meditation. Regular exercise TM has been shown to

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<v Speaker 1>be very effective. Exercise, but socialize and help someone else

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<v Speaker 1>do a good deed, make someone else feel better, make

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<v Speaker 1>a positive contribution, recycle anything positive will not only make

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<v Speaker 1>you feel better, it will make the recipient feel better.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a great way to wrap it up. Hey, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>uh and you always make us feel better and just

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<v Speaker 1>giving us so much information, just giving us up to date.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Alas better have a great weekend, clinical Professor of

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<v Speaker 1>medicine and why you lend going medical center. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

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<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So cashing in finally

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<v Speaker 1>college athletes are getting ready to finally score Tim some

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<v Speaker 1>serious cash. Joining us now is Bailey lip Schultz, Equities

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<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News, on the phone from New York City. Bailey,

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<v Speaker 1>It's great to have you. What Carol's referring to is

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<v Speaker 1>coming next month July for student athletes in at least

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<v Speaker 1>six states, including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. They will

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<v Speaker 1>be able to earn money by doing things like marketing

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<v Speaker 1>themselves on social media and selling autographs. So what does

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<v Speaker 1>that mean for US Congress for laws for legislation, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the big push right now has been for Congress to

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<v Speaker 1>pass a national standards, something that will have a level

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<v Speaker 1>playing field for off fifty states. Um. But there's been

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<v Speaker 1>a big divide. We've seen at least eight bills introduced

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<v Speaker 1>in the last year. There's kind of a widespread on

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<v Speaker 1>both sides, whether they want to include health insurance, whether

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<v Speaker 1>players should be to get paid towards a longer term,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they can be union eye or be seen as employees.

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 1>There's a huge debate on uh Capitol Hill about what

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.640
<v Speaker 1>that could look like. UM, So there's kind of a crunch,

0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:12.560
<v Speaker 1>but as of now, it doesn't seem like they're going

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:16.240
<v Speaker 1>to get something in ahead of that July one date.

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.200
<v Speaker 1>It's been a long time coming. I mean, we have

0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:23.000
<v Speaker 1>done so many stories here at Bloomberg, and we know

0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.480
<v Speaker 1>other news outlets have done the same ballet about the

0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 1>amount of money that we know in college sports, where

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 1>universities and coaches paid millions of dollars and the college

0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:39.080
<v Speaker 1>athletes get paid nothing. Um, I'm assuming the college is

0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:42.079
<v Speaker 1>a lot of them, not so happy about this. Well,

0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:43.600
<v Speaker 1>the big thing is that they just want a level

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 1>playing field. And it's not that they would get paid.

0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:47.840
<v Speaker 1>There's no pay to play. Pay to play is not

0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:50.360
<v Speaker 1>something that's considered. But the players want to be able

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 1>to do local ads. If you're a quarterback for Alabama,

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.520
<v Speaker 1>they want to be able to sign UM to talk

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.480
<v Speaker 1>about the local car dealership for example. UM. And that's

0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:00.679
<v Speaker 1>something that a lot of these players want to Obviously,

0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:02.200
<v Speaker 1>as you said, the n C double it makes a

0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:04.559
<v Speaker 1>lot of money on these players. The coaches make a

0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of money. They're huge facilities, but the players can't

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.240
<v Speaker 1>do anything um. Which really stands out because if you're

0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.520
<v Speaker 1>an entrepreneur at the Harvard you can feel free to

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.440
<v Speaker 1>make money, but if you're a football player, you can't

0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:18.600
<v Speaker 1>do anything. It's not just the the players that the

0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.640
<v Speaker 1>athletes that will potentially cash in. They need those marketplaces,

0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.000
<v Speaker 1>those platforms Bailey that you write about in order to

0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.760
<v Speaker 1>do so. Talk to us about marketplaces like open sponsorship

0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 1>and playbooked. Yeah. So Playbook is a company that was

0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>founded by an n ai athlete. The n ai A

0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:37.360
<v Speaker 1>different athletic associations for smaller schools. UM. They actually were

0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:39.880
<v Speaker 1>allowed to stay passing an I O N I L

0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 1>law back in October. So those players are making you know,

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.600
<v Speaker 1>fifty bucks for a Twitter Twitter post or something like that,

0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.560
<v Speaker 1>and open sponsors a company that really just pairs, so

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 1>they are taking a cut, but their whole role is

0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>to be a one stop platform where players can kind

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.440
<v Speaker 1>of put themselves and their best foot forward, and companies

0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.240
<v Speaker 1>can reach out and try to get paired up and

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, whether to tweets, an Instagram post, an actual

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 1>ad um. That's kind of their vision of what this

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 1>would look like. Hey, Bailey States moving on this? Will

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 1>that put pressure on the federal government to do something.

0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 1>That's been the push and that's what the n C

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 1>double A has been asking for. People had said July

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.840
<v Speaker 1>first obviously a huge deadline. Now it's looking like year

0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>end might be something that's on the table. But there's

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 1>such a such a divide between what Congress would want

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.880
<v Speaker 1>what the federal government would want that it's kind of

0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of question has been put on the NST

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:30.680
<v Speaker 1>double A itself, and they have a huge meeting next

0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 1>week to discuss an I L legislation. Do you think

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 1>the conversation has really shifted in recent years from this

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 1>being something that is okay, totally acceptable by the American people.

0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.240
<v Speaker 1>College athletes should be paid. I think it has and

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:44.800
<v Speaker 1>I think the main thing is depending on who you

0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:46.800
<v Speaker 1>talk to, it's been a long time coming. We've known

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.000
<v Speaker 1>that July first could be a date. We knew two

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.320
<v Speaker 1>would be the date. The NT double as really sad

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.480
<v Speaker 1>on their hands, and Congress hasn't done much. But if

0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:57.840
<v Speaker 1>you sit down and really think about it, you should

0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.360
<v Speaker 1>be able to maximize at least the people were fans

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.600
<v Speaker 1>of it. Should be able to maximize on your athletic

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.160
<v Speaker 1>abilities because you're only kind of in that spotlight once

0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 1>and you only have a certain periods or stretched where

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 1>you're you know, have the opportunity to cash in. And

0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:13.600
<v Speaker 1>that's the thing that really spread across a lot of

0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 1>people point to college basketball and college football. But if

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.840
<v Speaker 1>you're a woman's gymnast at U c l A, you

0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.080
<v Speaker 1>could make a lot a lot of money off of

0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:24.320
<v Speaker 1>selling your name, image and likeness, right exactly. Companies are

0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:26.960
<v Speaker 1>they kind of excited though about this prospect opening up

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:31.320
<v Speaker 1>in terms of branding and collaborations and partnerships with collegiate athletes.

0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:34.040
<v Speaker 1>I think though, and it seems like that that would

0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>be the consensus. It would make sense if you could

0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:38.880
<v Speaker 1>market you know, when Zion Williamson was a duke, if

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 1>you could get him in kind of an Adidas or

0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 1>a Jordan's sweatshirt or even a Subway ad then you

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.320
<v Speaker 1>could really strike while the iron is hot when these

0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.000
<v Speaker 1>people are when these athletes are younger and have their

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:50.840
<v Speaker 1>own stage, and if you look at a quarterback like

0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 1>Trevor Lawrence from Clemston, I can imagine there are a

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 1>number of companies that would have loved to take advantage

0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 1>of that well, and that's how you tap into a

0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:00.120
<v Speaker 1>younger audience too. You've got these younger athletes tap thing

0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.520
<v Speaker 1>into a younger audience, grabbing them and then having them

0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 1>for decades. Hey Bailey, when you think about this from

0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:08.119
<v Speaker 1>a perspective of just dollars and cents, like how much money?

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:10.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, obviously they are the huge names, the people

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.280
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, the household names at this point. But does

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 1>it mean that the typical college player on a D

0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.480
<v Speaker 1>one team is going to be able to actually make

0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:20.920
<v Speaker 1>some money? Yeah, that's been the thing that playbook has wanted,

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.679
<v Speaker 1>and that's kind of what some of these depending who

0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:25.640
<v Speaker 1>you talk to in the industry, they're saying, is it's

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:28.680
<v Speaker 1>it's a story, right, So if there's the back of

0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.920
<v Speaker 1>long snap Arom, the text Longhorns has a really good story,

0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:33.960
<v Speaker 1>or you know as a vet, there's going to be

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 1>an opportunity to make money there because people will want

0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:38.959
<v Speaker 1>to tell that story through their products. And I think

0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 1>it's it spreads much further than most people think. Most

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.080
<v Speaker 1>people would think it's the Alabama quarterback, you Ohio State

0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:48.320
<v Speaker 1>running back, the Syracuse point guard. But there are a

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:50.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of markets in a lot of places that look

0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:52.639
<v Speaker 1>up to these college athletes. And as you said, if

0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.560
<v Speaker 1>they have a couple of thousand followers on TikTok, that's

0:17:55.600 --> 0:17:57.920
<v Speaker 1>an easy way for them to make money and partnered

0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 1>in sponsored posts. Hey, how likely is it, LA that

0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see UM kind of a quilt of

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:08.120
<v Speaker 1>state moves versus federal legislation anytime soon? Could we could

0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:11.399
<v Speaker 1>we see that? Ultimately? I think so, at least to

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>start UM as as we've said, you know, July one

0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 1>is right around the corner. The n C double A

0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.399
<v Speaker 1>has a big council meeting UM next week at the

0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 1>start of next week. But everyone I talked to in

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:23.400
<v Speaker 1>the industry, doesn't expect them to pass some blanket law

0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.760
<v Speaker 1>that will look through a national level. So it seems

0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.760
<v Speaker 1>like it will be states individually picking up where they can,

0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:32.159
<v Speaker 1>players in schools putting pressure on those states. UM. But

0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 1>it definitely will be an interesting, interesting ride to see

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 1>how this plays out because there is a lot of

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 1>money on the line. Well, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Texas, these

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.320
<v Speaker 1>are big states, big sports states. I mean, how come

0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:45.639
<v Speaker 1>is that just because there is so much sports in

0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:47.680
<v Speaker 1>there that that's how this that's why that this got done.

0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:51.560
<v Speaker 1>Uh kind of first over some other places. Well, a

0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of places have signed laws, so like California assigned legislation,

0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.000
<v Speaker 1>Michigan assigned legislation, but they go on too affect at

0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.399
<v Speaker 1>a later date. UM. Some of these other states, like

0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:02.959
<v Speaker 1>you you met in Alabama or Mississippi, UM, kind of

0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:07.399
<v Speaker 1>pushed forth sooner rather than later. Florida actually earlier, earlier

0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:09.800
<v Speaker 1>in the spring, had pushed to delay it a year,

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:12.240
<v Speaker 1>and then two days later did a complete one eight

0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:14.320
<v Speaker 1>again and actually said, you know what, we'll have a

0:19:14.320 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 1>going effect this year because quarterbacks, UM, like the ones

0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.040
<v Speaker 1>from Miami and Florida state. We're putting pressure and saying

0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 1>it's ridiculous to keep delaying this. Not let us have

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:28.240
<v Speaker 1>an opportunity to make money on things that rightly they

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.639
<v Speaker 1>they believe they should. Hey Bailey, before we go, just

0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.080
<v Speaker 1>in ten seconds, the big names, the big n C

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.640
<v Speaker 1>Double A athletes, what's a realistic expectation for how much

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:38.359
<v Speaker 1>money they'll be able to pull in each year? But

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.360
<v Speaker 1>the estimate that it could be north of the six

0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 1>figures just depending on the following It really truly depends

0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:47.639
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter, TikTok, Instagram posts. Will be big money things

0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:50.520
<v Speaker 1>for these players. Not bad for a college job right now,

0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.920
<v Speaker 1>exactly right, that's before you even get out. Great stuff.

0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:57.440
<v Speaker 1>That was a great question, Billy Lipscheltz, Great story, Equities

0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News the phone from New York City.

0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:05.679
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, yesterday

0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:14.880
<v Speaker 1>President Biden signed federal law saying that Juneteenth would be

0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 1>a national holiday, a federal holiday. Juneteenth is the June

0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 1>nineteenth federal holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in

0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the US. Joining us now. Shinny Bastik, Wall Street reporter

0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.880
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News. She's here with us in the Interact

0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Shy, you spent

0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:34.200
<v Speaker 1>so much of yesterday on the phone talking to sources,

0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:37.880
<v Speaker 1>speaking to them about what exactly was going on. Talk

0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:40.639
<v Speaker 1>to me about the scramble that financial institutions went through

0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 1>yesterday to try to understand, Okay, how are we going

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:44.800
<v Speaker 1>to commemorate this now that it's a federal holiday. I mean,

0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:46.679
<v Speaker 1>no jokes. Some of them were like, what is everybody

0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>else saying? Yeah? So that's how much they were scrambling?

0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Were they really? And you know, the thing is, I've

0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.400
<v Speaker 1>been asking for a month because last year was when

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:59.879
<v Speaker 1>financial firms really had started to come out and either

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 1>or give a floating holiday or partial day off, uh something. Really,

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:07.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm so glad you said that you've you've been asking

0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:09.639
<v Speaker 1>for a month because I think too many observers right

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:11.680
<v Speaker 1>now and Carol mentioned this just a few minutes ago,

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 1>it seems like, okay, well this was you know, more

0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:15.159
<v Speaker 1>than a d fifty years than making. But also I

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:17.960
<v Speaker 1>think to a lot of people felt very quick. So

0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:20.760
<v Speaker 1>why did it catch so many companies off guard. I

0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:25.160
<v Speaker 1>don't know. I bet they're their diversity and inclusion you know,

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>exactly knew that this was coming. They've spent a lot

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:30.040
<v Speaker 1>of money in DNA in the last couple of months,

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars right over the last twelve months. They've

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.480
<v Speaker 1>hired people to hold them accountable on stuff like this.

0:21:35.560 --> 0:21:38.160
<v Speaker 1>So the June tenth of you know, the thing that's

0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:43.960
<v Speaker 1>surprising is many federal holidays have become market holidays. There

0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:46.399
<v Speaker 1>is no consensus yet on whether this will be a

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.360
<v Speaker 1>market holiday, though they are looking into it for next year.

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:52.040
<v Speaker 1>We'll see how it all plays out. We have talked

0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:55.560
<v Speaker 1>to a lot of people, especially a lot of former

0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:59.159
<v Speaker 1>black bankers as well, and some of them say this

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:01.359
<v Speaker 1>is the least they could do is give the day off.

0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:04.159
<v Speaker 1>Others say, I don't care whether they give us the

0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:06.800
<v Speaker 1>day off or not. There should be parody when it

0:22:06.800 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 1>comes to pay and promotion. That's what they what people

0:22:09.560 --> 0:22:11.000
<v Speaker 1>want to see at the end of the day. Well,

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:13.679
<v Speaker 1>you know, you're We had Pharrell Williams on yesterday and

0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 1>who said, listen, obviously this is important, this is great,

0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:18.720
<v Speaker 1>but there's still a lot of work to be done

0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:22.080
<v Speaker 1>exactly when it comes to you know, equality in d

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 1>and I certainly within the Wall Street community. I do

0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:28.320
<v Speaker 1>wonder about the pressure among black employees at these firms

0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:30.720
<v Speaker 1>and what kind of sway they might have. Well, that's

0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:34.360
<v Speaker 1>so interesting to ask, because the numbers are still so poor, right,

0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:36.600
<v Speaker 1>The numbers are very low when it comes to black

0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:39.000
<v Speaker 1>employees at the firms, and the executive ranks are less

0:22:39.000 --> 0:22:42.879
<v Speaker 1>than three percent typically. So that's that's how stark it is.

0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:46.760
<v Speaker 1>And we know the broader population is closer. So the

0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:49.480
<v Speaker 1>banks do have a long way to go. And what

0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:52.120
<v Speaker 1>it really comes down to is watching year after year.

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:55.639
<v Speaker 1>It's not really enough to kind of do things when

0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:59.200
<v Speaker 1>everybody is looking, right, It's a matter of consistency and

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:02.000
<v Speaker 1>making sure people follow up the year after, the year

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:04.640
<v Speaker 1>after and the year after. Right, we'll talk about why

0:23:05.359 --> 0:23:09.240
<v Speaker 1>markets closing isn't just an easy thing for you know,

0:23:09.640 --> 0:23:11.399
<v Speaker 1>a market to decide to do. I mean, these these

0:23:11.440 --> 0:23:14.359
<v Speaker 1>are publicly traded companies, the NASTAC and you know Intercontinental Exchange,

0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:16.879
<v Speaker 1>the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. You

0:23:16.960 --> 0:23:19.840
<v Speaker 1>lose money if you do that, Yeah, you lose money.

0:23:20.160 --> 0:23:23.040
<v Speaker 1>The thing that's interesting is it is it easy to do.

0:23:23.400 --> 0:23:25.639
<v Speaker 1>I've talked to some current and former executives and what

0:23:25.640 --> 0:23:28.439
<v Speaker 1>they've told me is, listen, when a former president dies,

0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:31.680
<v Speaker 1>you close the market pretty quickly, and in the case

0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:34.320
<v Speaker 1>of a natural disaster, the same would be the case.

0:23:34.720 --> 0:23:38.359
<v Speaker 1>So it's not that it's hard to do or impossible

0:23:38.400 --> 0:23:40.679
<v Speaker 1>to do by any means. But with that side, it

0:23:40.680 --> 0:23:44.160
<v Speaker 1>takes banks, broker dealers signed off by the regulators, and

0:23:44.320 --> 0:23:46.640
<v Speaker 1>it's not when when you ask anyone they say it's

0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:49.640
<v Speaker 1>the market's decision, Well who is the market? So that's

0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 1>where the complication lines. But I always think about, you know,

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:53.480
<v Speaker 1>walking the talk, like if you really want to send

0:23:53.560 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 1>a very strong message right away, like to have had

0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:58.800
<v Speaker 1>the president maybe sign it, then everybody saying okay, Monday

0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:01.240
<v Speaker 1>is a holiday, like you know what I mean, or

0:24:01.320 --> 0:24:03.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, to kind of do that would send a

0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:07.560
<v Speaker 1>very strong message about especially when you know you've been

0:24:07.560 --> 0:24:10.320
<v Speaker 1>talking to all of these big banks and members from

0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:14.840
<v Speaker 1>their community about the importance of diversity and inclusion, um.

0:24:14.880 --> 0:24:17.080
<v Speaker 1>But we still continue to talk about well, all right,

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:19.399
<v Speaker 1>that's talk, whereas the actions this could have been a

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:21.840
<v Speaker 1>very big, big sign and a big action, huge sign.

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:23.639
<v Speaker 1>And also the thing is people act like it's a

0:24:23.680 --> 0:24:26.919
<v Speaker 1>holiday for a portion of the population. No, this is

0:24:26.960 --> 0:24:30.280
<v Speaker 1>a holiday that is now a federal holiday. And that's

0:24:30.320 --> 0:24:32.520
<v Speaker 1>the point, right, A lot of our reporters have been

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 1>speaking to a lot of people about today. There's a

0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:39.159
<v Speaker 1>new corporate kind of speech now where it's an American holiday.

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:41.919
<v Speaker 1>It's an American holiday exactly. It's not a holiday just

0:24:41.960 --> 0:24:43.879
<v Speaker 1>for a subset of people. So that's something to consider

0:24:43.920 --> 0:24:46.640
<v Speaker 1>as we consider how to yea, is it so if

0:24:46.680 --> 0:24:49.360
<v Speaker 1>if if the banks decide to make this a holiday,

0:24:49.400 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 1>so I have decided to make it a floating holiday. Um,

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:55.480
<v Speaker 1>does that sort of foretell that markets will be closed?

0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Because for all intents and purposes. No. No. The interesting

0:24:59.440 --> 0:25:02.440
<v Speaker 1>thing is now some of the banks, particularly investment banks,

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:05.919
<v Speaker 1>have been waiting for kind of broader consensus from the

0:25:05.920 --> 0:25:09.240
<v Speaker 1>securities industry. But the interesting thing and the strongest moves

0:25:09.280 --> 0:25:12.280
<v Speaker 1>we've seen so far our Bank of America and JP Morgan,

0:25:12.400 --> 0:25:16.040
<v Speaker 1>the two biggest lenders, closing their branches starting next year

0:25:16.080 --> 0:25:20.440
<v Speaker 1>on June team So that is that that's another right,

0:25:20.480 --> 0:25:22.879
<v Speaker 1>why does the market need to be open if the

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:26.840
<v Speaker 1>two largest lenders decide that branches. Do you see what

0:25:26.840 --> 0:25:28.639
<v Speaker 1>I'm saying? It feels like there's a little testing in

0:25:28.720 --> 0:25:30.840
<v Speaker 1>the waters. I mean basically the SEC or something Right

0:25:30.920 --> 0:25:32.560
<v Speaker 1>or finwork came out and said, yea, we're going to

0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:34.800
<v Speaker 1>close markets. I mean, obviously then that's a done deal.

0:25:35.119 --> 0:25:37.280
<v Speaker 1>And I do wonder someone like a Jamie Diamond Wright

0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:38.879
<v Speaker 1>could come out and say this is what we're gonna do.

0:25:38.920 --> 0:25:40.800
<v Speaker 1>We're gon shut it all down. I bet a lot

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:45.040
<v Speaker 1>of folks would follow or not or not, but they

0:25:45.080 --> 0:25:48.320
<v Speaker 1>wanted to be level right the exact because there is,

0:25:48.359 --> 0:25:50.800
<v Speaker 1>as you say, money to be made and everything could

0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:52.320
<v Speaker 1>just be closed next year. We don't know how we

0:25:52.359 --> 0:25:55.960
<v Speaker 1>will play out in the end, Yeah, exactly, who knows?

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:58.320
<v Speaker 1>I know. None of this is straightforward. And what is

0:25:58.359 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 1>amazing though, Caroline and Chanoli and we you know, Shanalie

0:26:00.640 --> 0:26:02.720
<v Speaker 1>and I anchored to quick take focus on this today.

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:04.400
<v Speaker 1>It's like this was more than a d fifty years

0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:06.919
<v Speaker 1>in the making. Many states had already observed it, but

0:26:06.960 --> 0:26:09.280
<v Speaker 1>it's still caught a lot of companies off guard. Yeah.

0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:15.720
<v Speaker 1>I really find that interesting, shocking. A lot of words adjectives, um, Shinali,

0:26:15.800 --> 0:26:19.040
<v Speaker 1>good stuff as always Bloomberg News Wall Street reporter Shinali

0:26:19.080 --> 0:26:21.879
<v Speaker 1>Bossi in our Interactive Brokers studio. Check our out to

0:26:21.960 --> 0:26:29.000
<v Speaker 1>a Shinali Bossik on Twitter. This is Bloomberg Radio. I'm

0:26:29.000 --> 0:26:39.320
<v Speaker 1>bro journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please,

0:26:39.400 --> 0:26:46.560
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the revels. I want to drive. Just drive, baby,

0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 1>good questions Dry. This is the Drive to the Globe

0:27:00.119 --> 0:27:05.920
<v Speaker 1>Community Radio. So just about ten and a half minutes

0:27:06.000 --> 0:27:10.280
<v Speaker 1>left in today's trading session. Charlie bringing down, uh, the

0:27:10.359 --> 0:27:13.119
<v Speaker 1>latest on the trade for you, and it's definitely a

0:27:13.160 --> 0:27:14.960
<v Speaker 1>down days, particularly when it comes to the down Jones

0:27:14.960 --> 0:27:18.560
<v Speaker 1>Industrial Average down one point three percent, one percent who

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:20.800
<v Speaker 1>were on the SNP and the NASAC down three quarters

0:27:20.800 --> 0:27:23.280
<v Speaker 1>of a percent. Michael Clogan just saying, you know, kind

0:27:23.320 --> 0:27:25.359
<v Speaker 1>of markets doing the fed's work for it, and the

0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:27.159
<v Speaker 1>FED pricking the bubble bubble a little bit when it

0:27:27.160 --> 0:27:29.400
<v Speaker 1>comes to some asset prices. So let's get into it though.

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:31.320
<v Speaker 1>Time for the Drive to the Clothes and we're gonna

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:33.359
<v Speaker 1>do it with Alan Zaffron. He's founding partner in co

0:27:33.520 --> 0:27:36.239
<v Speaker 1>CEO at I e Q Capital. He joins us on

0:27:36.280 --> 0:27:39.639
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Foster City, California. Alan, It's nice to

0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:42.520
<v Speaker 1>have you here. It's been an interesting week. We're all

0:27:42.560 --> 0:27:45.080
<v Speaker 1>still trying to make sense of what the FED did,

0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 1>but it does feel like, you know, maybe they took

0:27:47.520 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>some of the froth out of the markets here. Hey, Carol,

0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:56.240
<v Speaker 1>great to be on. No mission accomplished exactly right, right,

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:58.560
<v Speaker 1>isn't it exactly what they wanted? We're going to have

0:27:58.640 --> 0:28:01.480
<v Speaker 1>inflation run a little fast than we thought, maybe it

0:28:01.560 --> 0:28:03.720
<v Speaker 1>runs a year or two a little hot faster we thought,

0:28:03.720 --> 0:28:06.280
<v Speaker 1>and then we get to our two percent inflation rate.

0:28:06.320 --> 0:28:08.680
<v Speaker 1>And who would have thought massive printing from the FED

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 1>as a result of a pandemic. Let's be said, finally

0:28:11.880 --> 0:28:14.200
<v Speaker 1>get to that two percent inflation level that we haven't

0:28:14.200 --> 0:28:18.000
<v Speaker 1>seen in over a decade. So mission accomplished. Let's let's

0:28:18.040 --> 0:28:20.800
<v Speaker 1>get not a lot, just a little tiny bit of

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:24.320
<v Speaker 1>air out of the bubble, and then let's recalibrate, because

0:28:24.480 --> 0:28:27.040
<v Speaker 1>once we get in the next year, we're gonna be

0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:30.560
<v Speaker 1>back in the slow growing, plogging economy we knew from

0:28:30.560 --> 0:28:33.480
<v Speaker 1>two thousand ten to two thousand nine. And in that

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:37.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of environment, the companies that can still have competitive modes,

0:28:38.080 --> 0:28:41.239
<v Speaker 1>strong balance sheets, and growth despite this slow economy are

0:28:41.240 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 1>going to dominate. That's why you're seeing this rotation right now.

0:28:43.920 --> 0:28:48.240
<v Speaker 1>It's people are already looking ahead, and they're saying, Wow,

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 1>there really isn't a lot of growth in this economy,

0:28:51.280 --> 0:28:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and that's why the thirty year intainer bondyields have plummeted

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:57.160
<v Speaker 1>in the last two trading sessions. We're flattening on the

0:28:57.240 --> 0:29:01.080
<v Speaker 1>yield curves and we're starting here. It's gonna take time,

0:29:01.280 --> 0:29:04.080
<v Speaker 1>but we're starting here to reposition back to what the

0:29:04.160 --> 0:29:07.760
<v Speaker 1>markets and the economy looked like before COVID. How much

0:29:07.760 --> 0:29:09.920
<v Speaker 1>more going on right now and how much more air

0:29:10.000 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 1>can be let out of out of the bubble. Well, hey,

0:29:14.440 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't like that term bubble because I'm going to

0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 1>tell you I don't think we are in a bubble

0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:21.760
<v Speaker 1>as it relates to the US stock market. I think

0:29:21.840 --> 0:29:25.680
<v Speaker 1>we are in the world where valuations for stocks are

0:29:25.680 --> 0:29:29.160
<v Speaker 1>going to continue to trade well above long term averages

0:29:29.560 --> 0:29:33.200
<v Speaker 1>because in a world of low interest rates and very

0:29:33.240 --> 0:29:36.400
<v Speaker 1>little returns on cash or bond, and the money has

0:29:36.440 --> 0:29:39.560
<v Speaker 1>got to go somewhere, it goes into stocks, and so

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:43.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, our valuations a little bit high potentially on

0:29:43.320 --> 0:29:48.000
<v Speaker 1>selected software companies or biotech companies, or certainly on third

0:29:48.080 --> 0:29:52.360
<v Speaker 1>tier value oriented commodity companies that needed an excessively fast

0:29:52.360 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 1>economy to persist. Yeah, maybe a little, but things aren't

0:29:55.960 --> 0:29:59.320
<v Speaker 1>grossly over valued. Money has got to go somewhere. Cash

0:29:59.400 --> 0:30:02.880
<v Speaker 1>is trash, long term tax rebonds are left to one percent.

0:30:03.560 --> 0:30:05.479
<v Speaker 1>Stocks are a better deal. So we kind of go out,

0:30:05.640 --> 0:30:09.160
<v Speaker 1>go back to what we saw after the financial crisis

0:30:09.160 --> 0:30:12.120
<v Speaker 1>and the reset there. We know it was pretty dismal

0:30:12.160 --> 0:30:14.720
<v Speaker 1>for a while, but we then were slow and low

0:30:14.760 --> 0:30:17.880
<v Speaker 1>for a long time. Is that ultimately where you think

0:30:17.920 --> 0:30:22.920
<v Speaker 1>we go back to. Yeah, it is. And here's why.

0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:26.520
<v Speaker 1>Number one, we have an aging population, so just take

0:30:26.560 --> 0:30:29.320
<v Speaker 1>a look at Japan, look at Europe, something like ten

0:30:29.360 --> 0:30:32.200
<v Speaker 1>thousand people a day turn age six five, the whole

0:30:32.200 --> 0:30:34.880
<v Speaker 1>baby boomer generation. When you get older, you spend less,

0:30:34.880 --> 0:30:38.520
<v Speaker 1>so that slows down economic growth. Secondly, it's got this

0:30:38.760 --> 0:30:42.520
<v Speaker 1>massive debt twenty eight trillion incounting for the US government.

0:30:42.920 --> 0:30:45.360
<v Speaker 1>It's got to be paid for, and paying that debt

0:30:45.400 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 1>off slows down economic growth. It crowds out private investment.

0:30:49.760 --> 0:30:51.480
<v Speaker 1>And certainly if you're in the U. S. Government, you

0:30:51.520 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 1>can't afford for interest rates to go it too high

0:30:53.400 --> 0:30:55.959
<v Speaker 1>because you've got to financi your debt. And so for

0:30:56.000 --> 0:30:58.680
<v Speaker 1>all those reasons, um, you're gonna end up in the

0:30:58.800 --> 0:31:02.320
<v Speaker 1>slow plotting, long environment, and to make matters even more

0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:06.000
<v Speaker 1>accentuated on interest rates, they're getting actually some real technological

0:31:06.040 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 1>advances pushing prices down and eliminating jobs. There's less wage inflation,

0:31:11.320 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 1>which is the biggest component of inflation. So interest rates

0:31:14.840 --> 0:31:17.280
<v Speaker 1>aren't going to go anywhere. If you had an aging population,

0:31:17.320 --> 0:31:20.920
<v Speaker 1>a big deadload and technological advances, RACH just can't go

0:31:21.000 --> 0:31:24.240
<v Speaker 1>up much. But but the economy still grows just enough

0:31:25.120 --> 0:31:28.520
<v Speaker 1>for solid businesses with growth to keep turning out their profits.

0:31:28.560 --> 0:31:31.479
<v Speaker 1>And that's why, Tim, we get back to the higher

0:31:31.480 --> 0:31:35.000
<v Speaker 1>than average evaluation. Money has got to go somewhere. And

0:31:35.240 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 1>I gotta tell you, if I were a policymaker and

0:31:36.720 --> 0:31:39.320
<v Speaker 1>now we're listening to you right now, I would I

0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:41.080
<v Speaker 1>would kind of be freaking out right now because I

0:31:41.080 --> 0:31:43.000
<v Speaker 1>would say, wait a second. What we want to do

0:31:43.040 --> 0:31:44.840
<v Speaker 1>is we want to see stronger growth than we saw

0:31:44.960 --> 0:31:50.400
<v Speaker 1>from We want to see uh employment uh. We want

0:31:50.400 --> 0:31:52.440
<v Speaker 1>to see employees get paid more. We want to see

0:31:52.440 --> 0:31:56.920
<v Speaker 1>wage growth. What are policymakers to do? You're correct? That's why,

0:31:57.000 --> 0:31:58.840
<v Speaker 1>as an example, one of the said governor's meal cash

0:31:58.880 --> 0:32:01.400
<v Speaker 1>parties arguing we say and raise rates until two thousand

0:32:01.400 --> 0:32:04.240
<v Speaker 1>twenty three. He's in the minority now, but he saying

0:32:04.280 --> 0:32:07.400
<v Speaker 1>we haven't given enough employment a chance. So there is

0:32:07.440 --> 0:32:10.880
<v Speaker 1>this tension, if you will, between trying to stoke inflation

0:32:10.880 --> 0:32:14.880
<v Speaker 1>and frankly, trying to broaden the wealth so a brighter,

0:32:15.000 --> 0:32:17.480
<v Speaker 1>a broader amount of citizens across the entirety of the

0:32:17.560 --> 0:32:20.560
<v Speaker 1>US versus not letting it inflation get out of control.

0:32:20.560 --> 0:32:23.720
<v Speaker 1>Of course, the problem is it's incredibly difficult for a

0:32:23.720 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 1>centralized organization like the Subtle Reserves to pinpoint perfectly where

0:32:28.160 --> 0:32:30.040
<v Speaker 1>rates should be to get the perfect amount of growth.

0:32:30.120 --> 0:32:32.680
<v Speaker 1>They can't, they can't be three years forward. They're doing

0:32:32.680 --> 0:32:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the best they can. But it is as a policy

0:32:34.720 --> 0:32:37.920
<v Speaker 1>mact policymaker, it is probably to the degree that you're

0:32:37.960 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 1>trying to broaden out full employment, especially in a world

0:32:40.760 --> 0:32:43.800
<v Speaker 1>where job um, the high paying job, certainly being challenged

0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:46.719
<v Speaker 1>from technological progress. Um, it's it's we're going to have

0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:52.080
<v Speaker 1>continued economic inequality. That problem is not going away anytime soon. Yeah, exactly,

0:32:52.120 --> 0:32:54.160
<v Speaker 1>And I feel like it's it's it's something we've been

0:32:54.160 --> 0:32:57.520
<v Speaker 1>talking about about reskilling of workers to really meet the

0:32:57.520 --> 0:33:00.400
<v Speaker 1>new jobs that are in demand at this point. So, Okay,

0:33:00.640 --> 0:33:03.479
<v Speaker 1>as you pointed, out so rightly. Alan at the beginning

0:33:03.600 --> 0:33:05.520
<v Speaker 1>is that when it comes to investing, you know, investors

0:33:05.560 --> 0:33:07.920
<v Speaker 1>are constantly you know, seeking yield. I've said that a

0:33:07.960 --> 0:33:10.320
<v Speaker 1>million times over the last couple of years, and you're

0:33:10.320 --> 0:33:13.280
<v Speaker 1>constantly comparing you know, as a class to asset class.

0:33:13.280 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 1>So in the meantime equities it's going to be It

0:33:16.400 --> 0:33:18.760
<v Speaker 1>looks like a smart argument. But again, where do you

0:33:18.760 --> 0:33:22.760
<v Speaker 1>want to be, well, you want to be as relates

0:33:22.800 --> 0:33:24.920
<v Speaker 1>to stock during the slow growing environment. This is why

0:33:24.920 --> 0:33:27.120
<v Speaker 1>growth stocks out before in value stocks over the last

0:33:27.120 --> 0:33:31.200
<v Speaker 1>ten years. Slow growing economy mandates that a company can

0:33:31.240 --> 0:33:34.920
<v Speaker 1>grow its profits regardless of the economic environment. So you

0:33:35.000 --> 0:33:37.800
<v Speaker 1>tilt more in the long run towards those growth stocks

0:33:37.840 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 1>as relates to yield, to the extent that you still

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:45.200
<v Speaker 1>have reasonable real estate choices, not necessarily urban office space,

0:33:45.640 --> 0:33:49.160
<v Speaker 1>but in general, selected real estate reefs certainly would make

0:33:49.160 --> 0:33:52.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot of sense in this environment. And lastly, senior

0:33:52.680 --> 0:33:54.880
<v Speaker 1>float in great debt in the world of low interest rates,

0:33:54.880 --> 0:33:57.360
<v Speaker 1>that are selected ways in which to create yield that

0:33:57.440 --> 0:34:01.560
<v Speaker 1>go beyond conventional long term you know, low yielding fixed

0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:03.800
<v Speaker 1>income vehicles. So you have to be a little more

0:34:03.840 --> 0:34:05.840
<v Speaker 1>choosy about where you put your capital if you're looking

0:34:05.840 --> 0:34:08.080
<v Speaker 1>for a yield, but you still need to make sure

0:34:08.120 --> 0:34:11.440
<v Speaker 1>that the underlying fundamentals or credit worthiness to where you're

0:34:11.440 --> 0:34:14.640
<v Speaker 1>getting your yield are still fundamentally solid. Don't go chasing

0:34:14.800 --> 0:34:17.600
<v Speaker 1>highly leveraged businesses. When the economy flows, it may not

0:34:17.760 --> 0:34:20.120
<v Speaker 1>end well. Allen, talk more about where you're seeing the

0:34:20.120 --> 0:34:23.239
<v Speaker 1>opportunity for equity, specifically when it comes to international. Is

0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:27.239
<v Speaker 1>there a market that you're particularly interested in? Um? Well,

0:34:27.280 --> 0:34:30.640
<v Speaker 1>I would tell you technology transcends borders. So again in

0:34:30.680 --> 0:34:33.160
<v Speaker 1>technology is the biggest place to grab cloth, and they're

0:34:33.200 --> 0:34:36.880
<v Speaker 1>absolutely there is. Um I would still argue that environments

0:34:36.920 --> 0:34:40.279
<v Speaker 1>both in Asia, certain reflective parts of emerging Asia, as

0:34:40.280 --> 0:34:43.239
<v Speaker 1>well as even in continental Europe aren't actually up to

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:46.000
<v Speaker 1>speed on various technological advances as you would think. So

0:34:46.040 --> 0:34:48.440
<v Speaker 1>I always software the service is a place to look,

0:34:48.760 --> 0:34:50.480
<v Speaker 1>and I would tell you that the pullback we had

0:34:50.480 --> 0:34:53.279
<v Speaker 1>with the value rotation up until a couple of days ago,

0:34:53.600 --> 0:34:56.440
<v Speaker 1>I still think on a long term basis, getting large

0:34:57.000 --> 0:35:00.440
<v Speaker 1>global franchises that happen to sell into non US markets

0:35:00.560 --> 0:35:02.320
<v Speaker 1>is a better way to play it. I think the

0:35:02.400 --> 0:35:05.520
<v Speaker 1>businesses are managed better within the US. All Right, good stuff,

0:35:05.560 --> 0:35:08.080
<v Speaker 1>as always and we always appreciate when you join us. Allen,

0:35:08.120 --> 0:35:10.160
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much, have a great weekend. Alan Zafran, who

0:35:10.239 --> 0:35:13.200
<v Speaker 1>founding partners co CEO of I e Q Capital, on

0:35:13.239 --> 0:35:16.359
<v Speaker 1>the phone with us once again from Foster City, California.

0:35:17.520 --> 0:35:20.320
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:35:20.400 --> 0:35:23.359
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can

0:35:23.400 --> 0:35:25.560
<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

0:35:25.560 --> 0:35:28.719
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Global News