WEBVTT - Draft Podcast: Reflecting On The 2017 Draft 0:00:00.740 --> 0:00:04.899 Hello, everybody. J.J. Cooper, Carlos Colosso, Baseball America Draft Podcast, 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.480 and we are starting a series today. We're going to 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:11.620 look back at some recent drafts. What did we learn 0:00:11.690 --> 0:00:14.490 from them? What do we remember from them? And we're 0:00:14.510 --> 0:00:17.630 starting with 2017. And we're starting 2017 for a key 0:00:17.710 --> 0:00:20.790 reason here. Carlos, I will kick it to you. Why 0:00:20.829 --> 0:00:23.450 are we starting with 2017? 0:00:23.450 --> 0:00:26.030 Well, we're starting with 2017 because this is the first, 0:00:26.670 --> 0:00:29.030 my first official draft with Baseball America. I don't know 0:00:29.050 --> 0:00:30.910 if we can count my 2014 intern year when I 0:00:30.970 --> 0:00:31.730 was there for the summer. 0:00:31.770 --> 0:00:34.970 You're a Clint intern. You're the Clint intern. That doesn't 0:00:35.030 --> 0:00:35.970 count to some level. 0:00:36.270 --> 0:00:38.590 I at least watched the draft in 2014 in the 0:00:38.630 --> 0:00:41.750 BA office. But in 2017, I came on in March. 0:00:41.810 --> 0:00:44.350 So it was very late in the draft cycle. As 0:00:44.409 --> 0:00:46.629 we covered the draft at Baseball America, maybe right at 0:00:46.659 --> 0:00:49.580 the start of the draft cycle for most people who 0:00:49.620 --> 0:00:51.420 follow the draft. But for us, that's like coming in 0:00:51.460 --> 0:00:56.200 very late. And so this was kind of me Learning 0:00:56.220 --> 0:00:59.510 the process really in a full-time capacity. Back then, Hudson 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.610 Balinski was our lead draft writer. John Manuel was around. 0:01:02.650 --> 0:01:04.970 He was very involved in the draft. It's actually funny now. 0:01:05.330 --> 0:01:07.890 I was looking back at some of their pieces around 0:01:08.030 --> 0:01:10.890 this draft class to try and refresh my memory on 0:01:10.930 --> 0:01:16.280 what our perception was of this 2017 class and seeing 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:20.369 bylined mock drafts from John and Hudson there. It was funny. Now, 0:01:20.390 --> 0:01:21.830 I don't know if we ever had maybe for the 0:01:21.870 --> 0:01:24.330 first year in 2018, me and you did some byline mocks. 0:01:24.350 --> 0:01:24.850 I don't remember. 0:01:24.870 --> 0:01:27.750 I don't think I've ever. I've never. That is a 0:01:28.030 --> 0:01:31.810 challenge that I am quite willing to never undertake. I mean, 0:01:32.290 --> 0:01:35.110 you know, because it is. It is so like I 0:01:35.150 --> 0:01:39.530 was deeply involved on the talking to scouts, going to, 0:01:39.590 --> 0:01:41.120 you know, like I saw a lot of the guys 0:01:41.180 --> 0:01:43.920 that previous summer, all that in a what can I 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:47.069 do to help kind of role. But right. But when 0:01:47.090 --> 0:01:49.530 it came to doing mocks, I had– no, that was 0:01:49.570 --> 0:01:52.160 Hudson and John, and then it was– was it Ewan? 0:01:52.330 --> 0:01:53.800 And then all of a sudden it was you. 0:01:54.810 --> 0:01:57.100 I think, yeah, if you weren't helping me on those 0:01:57.160 --> 0:01:59.520 initial mocks, it was just a me situation. 0:01:59.540 --> 0:02:01.800 Yeah, I was totally reporting for it, but I was 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:03.460 never being like, oh, I need to put my name 0:02:03.540 --> 0:02:04.880 on one of these. No, you can do that. 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.480 Yeah, I will give John and Hudson credit. Their final 0:02:08.540 --> 0:02:11.500 mock did have the first four correct. They went Royce Lewis, 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.870 Hunter Green, McKenzie Gore, Brendan McKay, and their first miss– 0:02:15.169 --> 0:02:17.930 Fittingly enough for this conversation, Austin Beck, and we'll get 0:02:17.970 --> 0:02:18.530 into that. 0:02:18.650 --> 0:02:19.769 Oh, we're going to talk Austin Beck. 0:02:20.430 --> 0:02:22.310 We're going to talk plenty of Austin Beck. But do 0:02:22.330 --> 0:02:24.930 you remember your perception of the 2017 class? I mean, 0:02:24.950 --> 0:02:28.709 for me, JJ, it's kind of funny because I saw 0:02:29.389 --> 0:02:33.350 in person McKenzie Gore that spring and Austin Beck, who 0:02:33.380 --> 0:02:36.620 were the top North Carolina prospects. They were both kind 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:39.040 of consensus top 10 players in the class. They both 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.440 went in that range. I remember watching McKenzie Gore absolutely dominate. 0:02:42.500 --> 0:02:44.550 And then I talked to him after that outing. And 0:02:44.590 --> 0:02:46.869 he was so pissed because he let up like one 0:02:46.970 --> 0:02:49.669 run and I think two hits, neither of which were 0:02:49.710 --> 0:02:51.810 squared up. And he was absolutely furious. I was like, oh, 0:02:52.130 --> 0:02:54.250 I thought you just looked great. And then Austin Beck 0:02:54.270 --> 0:02:58.250 still to this day, one of the more fun high 0:02:58.290 --> 0:03:00.590 school looks I've ever seen of a position player is 0:03:00.610 --> 0:03:04.350 an absolutely loaded field of scouts. He hit two home runs, 0:03:04.410 --> 0:03:07.190 a double showed off the arm. It was tremendous bat speed. 0:03:07.590 --> 0:03:09.230 And I remember it was a pivotal spring for Austin 0:03:09.250 --> 0:03:11.010 Beck too, because he was injured. He had a knee injury, 0:03:11.030 --> 0:03:14.180 I believe, and didn't play much the summer before. Um, 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.460 but I was, I was convinced Austin Beck had to 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:18.520 be a star because he was just toolshed galore and 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:22.400 absolutely dominated his high school pitching. Um, but I don't 0:03:22.419 --> 0:03:24.970 really have too much of a memory of like how 0:03:25.030 --> 0:03:27.770 we were reviewing the strengths of this class at the time. 0:03:27.790 --> 0:03:30.109 It felt fairly muddled at the top. And I'm sure 0:03:30.150 --> 0:03:33.130 there was the conversation about, Oh, Hunter green is one 0:03:33.150 --> 0:03:34.670 of the top players in this class. We've never seen 0:03:34.690 --> 0:03:38.020 a high school right-hander go first. And we had this conversation, um, 0:03:39.020 --> 0:03:41.120 just a few years ago with Seth Hernandez. So what's 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:42.720 your memory of the class and how we were kind 0:03:42.740 --> 0:03:43.500 of viewing it at the time? 0:03:44.310 --> 0:03:47.810 I felt like, okay, it was a very prominent high 0:03:47.870 --> 0:03:50.790 school class because we had Hunter Green, we had Mackenzie Gore. 0:03:51.290 --> 0:03:54.050 You had a number of these guys here at the top. 0:03:54.310 --> 0:03:57.950 We talked about Royce Lewis. It was viewed as, I 0:03:57.970 --> 0:04:01.750 feel like, a very solid high school class. The college class, 0:04:02.810 --> 0:04:05.130 I would say it was like that there was a 0:04:05.290 --> 0:04:11.290 clear delineation. There was Brendan McKay, who was a star, 0:04:12.030 --> 0:04:16.390 and then you had Kyle Wright, who was who kind 0:04:16.430 --> 0:04:18.589 of fit all the boxes that you were expecting to 0:04:18.670 --> 0:04:22.409 see in a top-of-the-draft pitcher. He went to Vandy. He 0:04:22.430 --> 0:04:25.250 was Vandy's ace. He did all the kind of things 0:04:25.270 --> 0:04:28.000 that you kind of expected there. And then after that, 0:04:28.060 --> 0:04:32.700 it was like, okay, this feels a little more muddled 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:34.860 after that on the college side. 0:04:36.150 --> 0:04:38.770 And we ranked the top five, just so everyone remembers 0:04:38.810 --> 0:04:41.070 how our rankings were. We had Hunter Green one, Kyle 0:04:41.110 --> 0:04:43.790 Wright two, Brandon McKay three, Mackenzie Gore four, and then 0:04:43.850 --> 0:04:44.810 Royce Lewis five. 0:04:46.170 --> 0:04:49.830 And I would say like, we're going to get into this. 0:04:49.970 --> 0:04:53.650 Like when you look at it now with the benefit 0:04:53.690 --> 0:04:56.589 of effectively 10 years, I would say the most important 0:04:56.610 --> 0:04:59.430 thing that we didn't know yet, like this was going 0:04:59.490 --> 0:05:03.760 to be like when you get to 20, 19 or so, 18, 19. 0:05:03.740 --> 0:05:06.340 I feel like that this was a little bit of a, 0:05:07.060 --> 0:05:13.440 we were coming off of, we had the Acuna, Otani, Tatis, 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:17.080 Vlad Jr. We had this kind of wave, but largely 0:05:17.110 --> 0:05:20.789 of international players. I feel like this was a little 0:05:20.810 --> 0:05:22.669 bit of a draft drought is the way I would 0:05:22.690 --> 0:05:25.270 describe it, where like, we didn't know at that time, 0:05:25.310 --> 0:05:28.089 but you look back, I mean, the 2016 draft is 0:05:28.570 --> 0:05:32.480 a truly barren draft especially when you look at that 0:05:32.510 --> 0:05:35.099 first round that first round for 2016 the year before 0:05:35.580 --> 0:05:38.960 was just ugly like and we're going to get into 0:05:38.980 --> 0:05:42.620 this further but like on the heels of that to 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:45.490 have a 17 draft where i think this is probably 0:05:45.500 --> 0:05:47.690 a good way to jump into this okay you've got 0:05:47.730 --> 0:05:50.909 the rankings up there what about on the college hitter 0:05:50.950 --> 0:05:53.010 side where did we have guys ranked. 0:05:54.589 --> 0:05:58.510 Okay so our first college hitter uh was adam hazley 0:05:58.670 --> 0:06:01.650 number eight overall He was the only college hitter we 0:06:01.690 --> 0:06:03.930 had ranked inside the top 10, if you're not including 0:06:03.970 --> 0:06:07.410 Brendan McKay. Obviously, you could have easily included him as 0:06:07.610 --> 0:06:09.510 one of the better two-way players we've seen in college. 0:06:10.100 --> 0:06:12.920 At 12, we had Evan White. At 14, we had 0:06:12.980 --> 0:06:15.460 Keston Hura, second baseman. And then at 15, we had 0:06:15.500 --> 0:06:18.779 Pavin Smith, a first baseman. So as we're kind of 0:06:18.820 --> 0:06:22.239 running this back and mentioning them, you've got two first basemen, 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.950 a second baseman, and a light hitting, I would say, 0:06:26.390 --> 0:06:30.510 college outfielder. Not a super appealing player. group just purely 0:06:30.550 --> 0:06:32.690 on demographics wise i can go a little. 0:06:32.589 --> 0:06:34.609 Bit and by the way second base was in quotes 0:06:34.670 --> 0:06:36.810 with keston hero like even like the reports at the 0:06:36.850 --> 0:06:38.970 time were like we don't know if he'll be able 0:06:39.010 --> 0:06:40.909 to play second base i believe we in fact actually 0:06:40.950 --> 0:06:44.360 listed him as second base slash lf because we thought 0:06:44.390 --> 0:06:46.740 there was a decent chance that he would end up 0:06:46.779 --> 0:06:50.880 in a corner outfield spot that's a that is a 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:55.260 really um i would say that that kind of left 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.120 a mark like if you'd like to go back to 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:00.089 our full top 10 Hunter Green, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, 0:07:00.110 --> 0:07:04.620 Mackenzie Gore, Royce Lewis, JB Bukowskis, Joe Adele, Adam Haseley, 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:08.940 Austin Beck, and Alex Fado. No, that's June 1st. I'm 0:07:08.980 --> 0:07:12.080 looking at the wrong one. So you have the full one, 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:15.740 I believe. Because I think that's the MAG issue version, 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.840 which maybe is the same. But what I would say 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:22.220 with all of this is there was some uncertainty with this. 0:07:22.940 --> 0:07:24.860 And I would say even at the top, like one 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:28.530 thing I'll say, we also, this was a two-way guy draft, right? 0:07:28.670 --> 0:07:34.650 Because Hunter Green was, we had listed as RHP slash shortstop. 0:07:35.130 --> 0:07:37.610 And this was, I don't want people to forget, like 0:07:37.830 --> 0:07:43.120 he was a absolutely legitimate shortstop prospect with real power. 0:07:43.140 --> 0:07:45.360 He would have been a first round pick if he 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.660 didn't pitch. Yes. He was at least a first round talent. 0:07:49.290 --> 0:07:51.920 And then you have Brandon McKay, who was a true 0:07:52.020 --> 0:07:56.000 two-way player, really a lefty DH, a little bit of 0:07:56.020 --> 0:07:59.880 first base at Louisville, but was again seen as, if 0:07:59.920 --> 0:08:02.820 you said that Brandon McKay couldn't pitch, I don't think 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:05.060 he's going top five, but he would have been a 0:08:05.100 --> 0:08:08.560 potential first-round talent as a hitter. And then I will 0:08:08.620 --> 0:08:11.290 even say, Joe O'Dell was always going to be an outfitter, 0:08:11.310 --> 0:08:12.730 but Joe O'Dell did pitch some of that year, and 0:08:12.750 --> 0:08:16.150 he had a premium arm, I would say at least. 0:08:16.610 --> 0:08:18.050 So there was a number of these guys at the 0:08:18.090 --> 0:08:21.420 top who kind of had that murkiness. And the other 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:23.080 thing I think that was kind of worth remembering at 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:26.000 the time was that Hunter Green also– Hunter Green was 0:08:27.820 --> 0:08:31.200 throwing 100 at a time when a high school pitcher 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:38.679 throwing 100 was an absolutely unusual, shocking thing. And he 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:42.350 did it. And he was doing it. We'd had Tyler Kolick. 0:08:42.710 --> 0:08:43.420 And Riley Pint. 0:08:43.660 --> 0:08:46.260 And Riley Pint. But he did it in a different 0:08:46.340 --> 0:08:47.260 way than those guys. 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:50.380 It was not that super effortful, all out. It was 0:08:50.460 --> 0:08:54.319 much more easy, graceful, athletic. I remember, too, at the time, 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:58.040 there were questions about the deception of Hunter Green's fastball 0:08:58.070 --> 0:09:00.400 because he threw quite hard, but it was so easy 0:09:00.429 --> 0:09:03.170 that it actually got hit around a lot more than 0:09:03.250 --> 0:09:05.250 scouts were expecting to at the time. And so there 0:09:05.270 --> 0:09:07.210 are questions of like, OK, how is that going to 0:09:07.230 --> 0:09:08.910 play in pro ball if it's not missing as many 0:09:08.950 --> 0:09:12.220 bats as we expect it to right now? The other 0:09:12.260 --> 0:09:13.820 thing that jumps out to me about this class as 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:15.880 we're talking about it, and I personally love it because 0:09:16.380 --> 0:09:19.280 the high school pitching is one of my favorites. And 0:09:19.380 --> 0:09:23.600 I feel like an under drafted just in terms of 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:25.780 like the talent. But if you look at the top 0:09:25.850 --> 0:09:29.750 five players by war just in the first round, three 0:09:29.790 --> 0:09:33.090 of those top five players are high school pitchers. Hunter 0:09:33.130 --> 0:09:37.069 Green is first, followed by Trevor Rogers, who went 13th 0:09:37.130 --> 0:09:40.290 overall to the Marlins. Then you get Brent Rooker. Tanner 0:09:40.309 --> 0:09:43.630 Houck on the college side, and Mackenzie Gore, who was 0:09:43.670 --> 0:09:46.620 third overall to the Padres. Those are your top five 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:49.559 players in the first round just on B-War so far, 0:09:49.620 --> 0:09:51.339 and we'll see how their careers continue on. But I 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:53.880 guess two of those aren't surprising, but what is notable 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:56.590 is none of the other kind of consensus top five 0:09:56.630 --> 0:09:59.670 players are in that grouping. So the fact that you 0:09:59.690 --> 0:10:01.760 can localize now and say, okay, Hunter Green and McKenzie 0:10:01.780 --> 0:10:05.120 Gore have kind of surpassed what both Brendan McKay and 0:10:05.140 --> 0:10:09.140 Kyle Wright, who probably then, and even now in recent drafts, 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:11.950 we would say, okay, those are the safer profiles. You 0:10:11.990 --> 0:10:14.130 need to go with those guys closer to the big leagues, 0:10:14.730 --> 0:10:17.370 less chance to get injury, less, less of a projection 0:10:17.410 --> 0:10:20.219 needed on them, but they both continue. come into their 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:22.740 own and pitch like at least middle of the rotation. 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:25.140 And for Hunter green in particular, like top of the 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:26.460 rotation type arms at their best. 0:10:27.580 --> 0:10:28.699 That's where I want to get into. I want to 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:30.580 talk about Brennan McKay and Austin Beck and kind of 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:31.920 the section we're going to have in each of these 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.540 look backs is what have we learned from this? We'll 0:10:34.580 --> 0:10:37.480 get into that right after this quick break. 0:10:37.500 --> 0:10:38.979 I think what people are seeing on the screen and 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:42.020 what we'll explain to the podcast audio crowd right now 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:45.000 is how I'm a little summer action with fabletics. And 0:10:45.020 --> 0:10:47.390 then you take us into fall and a little more layering. 0:10:48.530 --> 0:10:50.530 And here in the East, I'm still going to go 0:10:50.570 --> 0:10:52.390 to the shore in the fall. I love the shore 0:10:52.429 --> 0:10:55.500 in September. You come in from the beach, you throw 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.740 on a sweatshirt like this. It's light, it's breathable, but 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:00.620 you know what? It is so comfortable. 0:11:00.820 --> 0:11:03.880 Yeah, and for me, I love working out, but also 0:11:03.900 --> 0:11:07.230 I'm getting more into tennis, paddle, a little bit of pickleball, 0:11:07.250 --> 0:11:12.530 all that. I want lightweight, breathable, comfortable, and affordable. Let's 0:11:12.570 --> 0:11:16.070 talk about that. The discounts for Fabletics are massive when 0:11:16.110 --> 0:11:19.770 you sign up as a VIP. Shop now at fabletics.com 0:11:19.820 --> 0:11:23.220 slash foul to get 70 to 80% off everything. When 0:11:23.260 --> 0:11:25.420 you sign up as a new VIP, take a quick 0:11:25.460 --> 0:11:28.199 style quiz. Be sure to select foul when prompted to 0:11:28.300 --> 0:11:30.440 unlock this offer. This is a limited time offer, so 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:35.219 don't wait. Again, that's fabletics.com slash foul for 70 to 80% 0:11:35.220 --> 0:11:37.200 off everything as a new VIP. 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:42.390 So, Carlos, let's start with Brendan McKay. If you say, 0:11:42.510 --> 0:11:47.429 what have we learned from this draft? It's a lesson 0:11:47.500 --> 0:11:50.100 that I would love to say you don't want to 0:11:50.130 --> 0:11:52.980 be true, but it kind of, I think, is. The 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:57.880 Brendan McKay story is one. The Rays drafted him. He 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:00.819 wanted to be a two-way player. And the Rays were 0:12:01.380 --> 0:12:04.339 all on board with him working as a two-way player. 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.459 And again, he had the perfect profile to do it 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.949 in some ways, which is starting pitcher, DH first base, right? 0:12:11.010 --> 0:12:13.990 So you can do that in a way where every 0:12:14.030 --> 0:12:18.250 time we hear of, oh, he's a shortstop slash right-handed pitcher. 0:12:19.350 --> 0:12:22.290 You can't make that work. I'm sorry. You can try 0:12:22.330 --> 0:12:26.650 all you want. There's no way to say he's going 0:12:26.690 --> 0:12:29.390 to pitch and he's going to play shortstop. Those two 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:34.100 things don't work together arm care wise. First base DH 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.059 and left-hander, you would say, okay, if you're going to 0:12:36.140 --> 0:12:39.790 line this up, you're going to start a game every week. 0:12:39.820 --> 0:12:42.439 And that's what they did in the minors as a pitcher. 0:12:43.140 --> 0:12:45.260 And then you're going to take days off, but then 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.260 you're going to hit and you can be a DH 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:48.680 and you can be a little bit of first base. 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:51.140 And how many throws do you really make it first 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:52.140 base in a normal day? 0:12:52.300 --> 0:12:52.620 All that. 0:12:53.330 --> 0:12:53.500 Right. 0:12:53.990 --> 0:12:55.809 Would seem to be set up. And this was a 0:12:55.870 --> 0:12:58.030 thing that the Rays were doing. Tanner Dodson is around 0:12:58.070 --> 0:13:00.910 this era too. The Rays were embracing, I would say 0:13:00.950 --> 0:13:04.809 kind of developmentally, the idea of developing two way players. 0:13:06.150 --> 0:13:12.170 And I would say that, Brendan McKay's story journey is 0:13:12.250 --> 0:13:14.990 kind of why you don't see teams doing this as 0:13:15.070 --> 0:13:17.670 much developmentally. I know we still have a couple of 0:13:17.690 --> 0:13:19.730 the Rangers have a couple of guys right now, but 0:13:20.530 --> 0:13:25.969 Brendan McKay injuries basically utterly derailed his career. I would 0:13:26.010 --> 0:13:28.329 say it's the way to say it. Like we don't know, 0:13:28.390 --> 0:13:31.929 but like it was a, it was shoulder injuries, lost time. 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.480 Then we came back to stuff just wasn't the same. And, 0:13:36.460 --> 0:13:38.219 If you had it to do all over again, no 0:13:39.780 --> 0:13:44.000 one could ever know if the wear, physical wear and tear, 0:13:44.500 --> 0:13:47.680 the fatigue of doing both was a part of this. 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:53.180 But Brendan McKay's success. Brendan McKay as a first baseman, 0:13:53.350 --> 0:13:55.610 your kind of hope was he'd be okay. He'd be 0:13:56.090 --> 0:13:59.670 an okay starter, right? Not a star. The hope was 0:13:59.690 --> 0:14:01.470 he was going to be a star lefty. And who 0:14:01.510 --> 0:14:04.570 didn't throw all that particularly hard at the time. And 0:14:04.610 --> 0:14:06.809 then we lost the stuff a little bit. Then it 0:14:06.850 --> 0:14:09.550 became a much more challenging thing. Do you think that 0:14:09.590 --> 0:14:14.390 Brendan McKay's path to like kind of being derailed by 0:14:14.470 --> 0:14:19.100 injuries discouraged teams from kind of going down this path further? 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.640 I would imagine so. And I also think the Brendan 0:14:24.660 --> 0:14:27.890 McKay kind of. career path is why even when Jack 0:14:27.930 --> 0:14:30.450 Caglione was coming out of Florida, why I was so 0:14:31.030 --> 0:14:34.150 skeptical about the fact that he was a legitimate two-way player. 0:14:34.170 --> 0:14:38.250 I mean, he had the outfield position element to his game, 0:14:38.310 --> 0:14:41.910 even though he played first base plenty in college. I 0:14:41.950 --> 0:14:46.600 just think more than anything, Shohei Otani is just an outlier. 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.480 And Because we're even seeing with Shohei, I know he's 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:52.620 32 years old now. He did have three seasons where 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:54.520 he threw over 100 innings. But we're even seeing with 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.420 Shohei where the two-way factor is just challenging for him 0:14:58.460 --> 0:15:01.700 to do, to stay healthy and to manage that workload. 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.040 Even for him, it is a challenge. It's something that 0:15:04.060 --> 0:15:06.600 he hasn't been able to do consistently year in and 0:15:06.620 --> 0:15:10.340 year out full time. Really, it reinforces to me that 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:14.140 baseball is a sport of specialists. It is incredibly hard 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:16.400 to succeed as a hitter or pitcher if that is 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:19.110 the only thing you're doing. Um, and I really do 0:15:19.170 --> 0:15:22.450 think Otani is the outlier who sort of proves the rule. 0:15:23.290 --> 0:15:27.780 I don't think teams should waste development time, um, waste 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:30.920 the health of players trying to do it both ways. 0:15:30.940 --> 0:15:33.020 I just think it's so difficult and the odds of 0:15:33.060 --> 0:15:35.700 you making it in either direction are so low tack 0:15:35.740 --> 0:15:38.400 on both to it. You're only adding more opportunities. You're 0:15:38.420 --> 0:15:41.130 really adding more opportunities, like you said, for overuse injuries, um, 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.830 especially if it's a sort of Bubba Chandler, Mason Wynn. 0:15:43.850 --> 0:15:46.170 I don't know how frequently Mason Wynn is actually pitching 0:15:46.190 --> 0:15:47.410 when he got into pro ball. I think it's a 0:15:47.430 --> 0:15:49.230 pretty quick switch. But even Bubba Chandler had a year 0:15:49.650 --> 0:15:51.370 where he was hitting, he was playing shortstop, he was 0:15:51.390 --> 0:15:53.290 kind of juggling both. And just the arm care and 0:15:53.310 --> 0:15:56.150 the maintenance you're talking about, the amount of throw work, 0:15:56.230 --> 0:15:58.480 catch play that you have to do as a professional pitcher, 0:15:59.620 --> 0:16:01.940 I think is probably more than people expect. It's much 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.979 more than just the official innings and pitches that you're 0:16:05.020 --> 0:16:07.180 seeing show up in the game logs and the box scores. 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:10.060 It's tremendously difficult. If you're a hitter, you need as 0:16:10.140 --> 0:16:12.320 many ABs and reps as possible. If you're a pitcher, 0:16:12.340 --> 0:16:14.870 there's just so much that goes on behind the scenes, 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.250 getting your body ready to throw, just adjusting to the 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:19.770 pro schedule. Like if you're only a pitcher going from, 0:16:20.330 --> 0:16:22.750 let's say college, college to the pro game, you're throwing 0:16:22.790 --> 0:16:26.410 more frequently. You're expected to throw in a longer season. 0:16:26.470 --> 0:16:30.030 So that workload alone is a big jump. And then 0:16:30.050 --> 0:16:34.030 you're adding on all of the stuff you have to do. Offensively, 0:16:34.050 --> 0:16:35.690 the reps you need as a hitter, the reps you 0:16:35.730 --> 0:16:38.850 need defensively, or you're doing a lot more defensive work 0:16:39.350 --> 0:16:41.190 as a position player in pro ball, I do think 0:16:41.250 --> 0:16:44.990 that this is why I am always extremely skeptical of 0:16:45.570 --> 0:16:48.190 two way players continuing that path in pro ball. I 0:16:48.230 --> 0:16:50.810 think in high school, it's great. It's great for you 0:16:50.890 --> 0:16:53.950 to be a natural athlete and to get reps. And 0:16:53.970 --> 0:16:57.090 at that stage, who knows what side your, your future 0:16:57.930 --> 0:16:59.670 is going to be on. There've been plenty of players 0:16:59.710 --> 0:17:01.670 who were two way guys, Austin Riley, Michael Harris, two 0:17:01.710 --> 0:17:04.690 notable ones with the Braves who I expected. And I 0:17:04.730 --> 0:17:07.880 think the general scouting team, consensus was that they were 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:11.320 going to be pitchers. In high school and in college, 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:12.920 if you're a two-way player, I'm fine with it because 0:17:12.940 --> 0:17:15.980 we've seen basically all the best high school players in 0:17:16.010 --> 0:17:18.550 the country can help their teams on both sides of 0:17:18.570 --> 0:17:20.930 the ball. In college, if you're good enough, I think 0:17:20.990 --> 0:17:25.230 the schedule demands, the pitching demands, and just the differences 0:17:25.290 --> 0:17:27.070 in the game can allow you to do both at 0:17:27.310 --> 0:17:28.950 a high level, so I'm fine with it there. But 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:30.540 once you get into pro ball, I really do think 0:17:30.980 --> 0:17:33.630 we've seen enough players who are uber talented on both 0:17:33.670 --> 0:17:35.409 sides who've just failed or not been able to do 0:17:35.450 --> 0:17:38.830 both that. I feel like it is pretty important to 0:17:38.850 --> 0:17:42.870 kind of figure out where's your, where's the upside coming from? 0:17:43.150 --> 0:17:46.170 Are you better on one side or the other? Where 0:17:46.190 --> 0:17:48.070 do you need more reps on and kind of focus 0:17:48.130 --> 0:17:51.530 on those areas? I do feel like Shohei Otani is 0:17:51.570 --> 0:17:53.889 a generational player for a reason. He was not a 0:17:53.910 --> 0:17:55.870 harbinger of things to come on the two way side. 0:17:56.130 --> 0:17:58.770 Shohei Otani existing does not make the path any easier 0:17:59.250 --> 0:18:01.650 for players just because he's doing it. And I think, 0:18:02.150 --> 0:18:05.510 we really should be hesitant about putting like two way 0:18:05.630 --> 0:18:09.390 likely outcomes on, on anyone. Maybe we'll get a generational 0:18:09.430 --> 0:18:12.830 player in a few decades, but I wouldn't bet on it. 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.740 Okay. Austin Beck is the other, what I would say 0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:19.850 when they say what things we've learned to lay it, 0:18:19.859 --> 0:18:22.300 you just kind of laid it out this, but I 0:18:22.460 --> 0:18:25.940 don't think a player of Austin Beck's profile has a 0:18:26.100 --> 0:18:32.859 chance to go top six, top seven today. just because of, 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.060 as you laid out, like this is a guy who 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:38.619 I think partly because of the Austin Beck story, to 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:40.929 be honest, is kind of what I think has taken 0:18:40.970 --> 0:18:43.730 teams off of this, but it's a little bit more 0:18:43.770 --> 0:18:46.109 data driven out. This was a, and again, we love scouts, 0:18:46.150 --> 0:18:49.510 but this was a, this was a difficult evaluation because 0:18:49.590 --> 0:18:52.730 as you noted, Austin Beck, I won't say that he 0:18:52.790 --> 0:18:54.860 came out of nowhere. It's not like people were like, 0:18:54.930 --> 0:18:57.219 who's Austin Beck coming into that spring. 0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:57.480 Right. 0:18:58.060 --> 0:19:00.919 He was known as an... So I can just read 0:19:00.940 --> 0:19:03.290 the first three lines of our draft report at the time, 0:19:03.310 --> 0:19:05.430 and it'll give you good context. So I believe it 0:19:05.450 --> 0:19:07.470 was Hudson at the time wrote, As an underclassman, Beck 0:19:07.510 --> 0:19:09.869 was a known commodity for Carolina area scouts thanks to 0:19:09.910 --> 0:19:12.090 travel ball and his own high school team. Then Beck 0:19:12.109 --> 0:19:14.400 tore his left knee's ACL just as the junior year 0:19:14.420 --> 0:19:16.619 came to a close and missed the entire summer and 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:18.940 fall as a result. When scouts went in to see 0:19:19.020 --> 0:19:20.639 Beck hit in the cages during the winter, he was 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:23.580 a different animal. And then we go into just the... 0:19:24.430 --> 0:19:26.850 The number of plus and plus plus tools he has 0:19:26.910 --> 0:19:28.470 in his card. But yeah. 0:19:29.190 --> 0:19:34.120 So this was a player who went from nowhere near 0:19:34.180 --> 0:19:37.920 the top hundred players in the class coming into spring 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:43.440 to a top 10 type talent by draft day. And, 0:19:43.460 --> 0:19:48.770 you know, I do think, again, it's unfortunate for Austin Beck, 0:19:48.830 --> 0:19:52.890 but he is a cautionary tale. Went out that year 0:19:52.910 --> 0:19:54.070 in 17 and hit 211, 293, 349 in the AZL. Okay, 0:19:54.109 --> 0:19:56.190 you know, adjusting to pro ball. Next year in 18, 296, 335, 0:19:56.170 --> 0:19:58.090 383 in the Midwest League, which was low A at 0:19:58.109 --> 0:20:01.020 the time. Probably his best stint in pro ball right there. 0:20:10.190 --> 0:20:14.690