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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our week seven Thursday NFL episode. This is

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Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys

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Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We make our Survivor pick,

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Speaker 1: build our moneyline, Underdog, Underdog Round Robin, We give out

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Speaker 1: our Foxhole bet, our Big Balls bet of the week,

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Speaker 1: and we narrow down our picks for the free to

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Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick

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Speaker 1: Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard likes to say,

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Speaker 1: there's a sea of money.

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Speaker 3: Out there, because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

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Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before

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Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using the award

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Speaker 1: winning Action app, you can also track all of thats

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Speaker 1: Simon and I lock in by following two accounts, the

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Speaker 1: Phase five and the Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike and Padre and my

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Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, swim in one's removing brother.

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Speaker 1: Opinions are changing. What are we going to do this week?

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Speaker 3: Hello hot Chad. Yeah, I'm exciting for this week. It

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Speaker 3: feels like we're going to get some some weather games.

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Speaker 3: It's starting to really feel like fall football weather. None

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Speaker 3: none of the sunshine and seventy degree weather, some cold, rainy,

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Speaker 3: wet games up in the Northeast. So yeah, this week,

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Speaker 3: I wanted to come and heavy on the overs after

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Speaker 3: that big underwek but looks like it might be another

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Speaker 3: nice week for the pros. Bet these unders.

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Speaker 1: Huh, we will see as a reminder of the Favorites.

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Speaker 1: Podcast is presented by Bet three six five. Bet three

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Speaker 1: six five doesn't do ordinary It belie is that every

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Speaker 1: sport should be epic every touchdown, every game, every point,

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Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Here

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Speaker 1: we go, my brother Simon, Week seven is approaching. We're

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Speaker 1: seeing opportunities all over the board. Let's not delete elliot.

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Speaker 2: It's time for sharp calls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 2: Rain telephone range. Somebody say it man.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this week, I would say not shocking to anyone.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of home dogs, and that's really where

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Speaker 3: the pros are kind of taking their positions, or these

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Speaker 3: home dogs that were under those two and a half

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Speaker 3: points right. We joked earlier in the week how important

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Speaker 3: that number two is, and we said, grabbed the Eagles

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Speaker 3: at one and a half right now, it's gonna move up.

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Speaker 3: The pros came in. You can see in our app

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Speaker 3: it's a huge discrepacy. There's a lot of tickets on Miami,

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Speaker 3: but all the money is on the Eagles, So it's

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Speaker 3: like you knew the Pros are gonna come in. They

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Speaker 3: have the numbers moved. Well, bet if we talked about it,

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Speaker 3: I was I was hoping for the one and a

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Speaker 3: half all week that that's such a good number to

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Speaker 3: have in that game. But I'm not terrified at two

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Speaker 3: and a half. If that's what we have to take

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Speaker 3: in the contest, I would still do it. But obviously

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Speaker 3: we talk all the time. I mean, how many times

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Speaker 3: if this number falling on two this year it keeps happening,

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Speaker 3: The number keeps falling on two, So not ideal, not

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Speaker 3: ideal for me and Chad. I was hoping this number

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Speaker 3: wouldn't have moved so much. But I think the weather

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Speaker 3: and it's supposed to be forty degrees and wet on

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Speaker 3: Thursday on Sunday night, I should say in Philadelphia, so

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Speaker 3: that could be a reason numbers moved. But if you know,

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Speaker 3: if the Eagles have injuries, if Lane Johnson's out, Honestly,

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Speaker 3: like we talked all the time about positional value, this

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Speaker 3: could move a whole half a point, full point. If

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Speaker 3: Lane Johnson's out, the Eagles are I believe ten and

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Speaker 3: twenty two straight up with Lane Johnson in the lineup

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Speaker 3: when he's not so clearly a big deal. I Flane's

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Speaker 3: not playing, but you know, looking at looking at that game,

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Speaker 3: no shocking there. The pros came out, So we'll break

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Speaker 3: that one down more a little a little surprising. Uh

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Speaker 3: they like Atlanta. I me and you really didn't talk

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Speaker 3: about that one. I really don't have to read a

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Speaker 3: great read on that game.

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Speaker 1: We had we had to read on this and we

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Speaker 1: were going to talk about it Atlanta. We liked Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: but we were, yeah, get to three and it's a

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Speaker 1: two and a half, And.

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Speaker 3: Like, I've been talking to guys and like, I like it,

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Speaker 3: but I just haven't betted because like you said, I've

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Speaker 3: been waiting for the three, so I have no money

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Speaker 3: invested in it. But I know some really why guys

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Speaker 3: who love Atlanta in the spot and I could just

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Speaker 3: it's just hard for me to get there. Like I

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Speaker 3: just I don't know what they're back in here.

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Speaker 1: But well, listen, we'll get to that one because there's

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Speaker 1: also uh uh, there's a luck factor that I.

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Speaker 2: Want to discuss with that game.

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Speaker 1: You know, I love the luck rankings and we've got

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Speaker 1: some late breaking luck data on that game.

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Speaker 3: And then I know a really smart group chat that

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Speaker 3: actually came in on the Chiefs. So we like the Chargers. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I know some wise guys that are on this Chiefs here,

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Speaker 3: I think they're drinking the same cool aid down drinking

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Speaker 3: itch is. You're not really backing so much the Chiefs offense.

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Speaker 3: You're back in the defense. Like that defense even talked

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Speaker 3: since week one, they've been one of the best in football.

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Speaker 3: I've had them great at my number two defense. Now

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Speaker 3: they're at my number four defense. Still I'm great at

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Speaker 3: them as a top five defense, which is crazy to

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Speaker 3: think when you think of all the money they've allocated

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Speaker 3: towards Kelsey, towards Mahomes. Still Spags has that defense playing

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Speaker 3: at such a high level. So another game off the breakdown,

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Speaker 3: maybe maybe we still will have the Chargers in. But

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Speaker 3: does give me a little bit of pause where this

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Speaker 3: group is really smart. They're taking a position me and

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Speaker 3: you already have a position at six. You know that's

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Speaker 3: a key number at six, Like we're not getting six

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Speaker 3: in the contest right now. I look this morning, it's

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Speaker 3: five and a half. So that's defining one will break

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Speaker 3: down and then really quick home dogs like the Boys

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Speaker 3: love Colts. The boys love the Bears. The boys love

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Speaker 3: this Ravens team. I know they're not a dog, but

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Speaker 3: the Ravens. Me and Chad were all over that Sunday

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Speaker 3: night was open at minus two and a half. Now

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Speaker 3: it's up to minus three. That was Tuesday, it was

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Speaker 3: up to minus three. It's been sitting in minus three

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Speaker 3: all week. I would say every runner I've talked to,

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Speaker 3: every bookmaker I've talked to this week, it's all lines

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Speaker 3: of money. It's all lines of money. Line, it's all

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Speaker 3: lines on the spread. So that's another game where it's

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Speaker 3: like me, you already like the Ravens now, knowing that

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Speaker 3: the Ravens, the book needs the Ravens. That's a good feeling.

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Speaker 3: Like if we get two and a half in the contest,

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Speaker 3: no doubt or auto play, love the Ravens. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: not too much shock on the sharp calls. I was

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Speaker 3: shocked here about the Chief stole. I feel like I

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Speaker 3: still even want to think about now, how do we

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Speaker 3: get how do we get away from this? The Chargers

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Speaker 3: always play this game to a field goal. It feels

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Speaker 3: like we're always in this game to a field goal.

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Speaker 3: But the argument is Herbert's injury is affecting him, even

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Speaker 3: though it was his non throwing hand. He just looked

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Speaker 3: off in that game. And my pushback against that is,

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Speaker 3: isn't that we want to back Herbert after a bad game.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it wasn't just one or two guys that

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Speaker 3: are like on this Chiefs team. It's multiple smart money

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Speaker 3: groups coming on the Chiefs team, but people just like

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Speaker 3: Menuchek coming down the Chargers. So definitely a lot of

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Speaker 3: back and forth this week for Sharp Calls.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's so interesting because I do feel like all

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Speaker 1: the games that we sort of were thinking about the Bears,

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Speaker 1: especially the Falcons that we talked about, that we're in

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Speaker 1: line here. So let's dig in a little bit deeper

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Speaker 1: as we start to narrow down our five. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: So for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give

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Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: We got to start narrowing down. We got to get

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Speaker 1: to the foxhole, We got to get to our survival.

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Speaker 1: We got to get to the.

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Speaker 2: Big ball bit of the week.

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Speaker 1: If I don't yell big balls with as much enthusiasm

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Speaker 1: as I normally do. It's because, as people who are

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Speaker 1: watching on YouTube can tell, I'm not in my normal backdrop.

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Speaker 1: I'm in a hotel and so, and it's early. I'm

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Speaker 1: on the West coast, so I don't want to wake

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Speaker 1: up my neighbors.

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Speaker 3: I mean, chat, it's five in the morning here in

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Speaker 3: Hawaiian I yelled big balls all the time. I mean,

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Speaker 3: what are we doing here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're not always doing it on the podcast.

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Speaker 1: All right, here's the games we talked about the most.

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Speaker 1: I'm surprised. Let's talk about Pittsburgh and Los Angeles.

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Speaker 2: I'm still all on this. You were a little squishy

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Speaker 2: about it.

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Speaker 3: I'm coming around though, all right, all right.

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Speaker 2: Like it had to me, I don't know what you've heard.

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Speaker 1: Like, our data in action is showing that the money

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Speaker 1: right now is on the rams, but it hasn't moved

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Speaker 1: off of three. And I will reiterate, Mike Tomlin is

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Speaker 1: the most profitable coach as a dog the past twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as an underdog from week five to forward,

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Speaker 1: thirty seven thirty straight up on the money line. I mean, why,

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Speaker 1: why is why is it not obvious that we're taking

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Speaker 1: the Steelers here?

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Speaker 3: I would definitely feel better about the three and a

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Speaker 3: half And a lot of people said, this is a

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh home game, right, They're going to travel, they're going

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Speaker 3: to show up for this is one of the biggest

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Speaker 3: fan base is and loudest fan bases in football, so

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Speaker 3: already know that Pittsburgh's having advantage. They're just like I

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Speaker 3: feel like the Cowboys had an advantage against the Chargers like

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Speaker 3: that when you have fans that travel and they're loud

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Speaker 3: and raucous and those those games and they're in LA,

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Speaker 3: it feels like that helps those teams, those away teams,

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Speaker 3: And if it was three and a half chat, I

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Speaker 3: definitely would feel more comfortable. The fact that's just sitting

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Speaker 3: at three. It's like, yeah, I'm betting it, but it's

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Speaker 3: like it's not the best the best value. Could easily

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Speaker 3: see this game being a push, like no one will

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Speaker 3: be shocked if this game comes down to a field goal.

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Speaker 3: But it feels like your read is right where it's

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Speaker 3: like I was probably buying a little too high on

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Speaker 3: this Rams team, right, It's like I'm I'm not that

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Speaker 3: I'm buy at their peak, but the public is caught

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Speaker 3: up to it, Like after last week they tried to

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Speaker 3: fading with Arizona, they tried taking that big dog at

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Speaker 3: seven points, and the Rams were never really in doubt

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Speaker 3: in that game. And this game here we saw it

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Speaker 3: Sunday night. It opened at three, went up to three

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Speaker 3: and a half, and then obviously professional money came in.

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Speaker 3: It's just been at three now all week. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's it was one of your early reads. It was

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Speaker 3: tough for me to get there, like I'm I'm getting

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Speaker 3: there now, but I feel much more comfortable for us

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Speaker 3: three and a half in contest, if this was minus

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Speaker 3: two in it or plus two and a half, you

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Speaker 3: can't convince me to put this in chat because I

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Speaker 3: got this right at three. So the only way this

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Speaker 3: makes it in for us if it's three and a half,

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Speaker 3: it's two and a half. It's not a play for me.

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Speaker 1: But for those listening and those watching live on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: liking and subscribing at three, it's worth a bet. I

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Speaker 1: bet at plus three. Have you played Pittsburgh at plus three?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 2: No, you haven't.

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Speaker 3: No, it's not. I'm just waiting for the three and

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Speaker 3: a half and if it doesn't get there, I will

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Speaker 3: I'll throw a little one the three. But I got

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Speaker 3: no value. I make the line three the numbers three.

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Speaker 3: It's you know, to me, this is another game where

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Speaker 3: like you already said it, like I'll throw this in

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Speaker 3: my money line around Robin, but putting a big bet

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Speaker 3: on the three not likely for me. And oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: I keep forgetting to do this, Chad. People keep asking

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Speaker 3: about our money line around Robin. Just really quick, how

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Speaker 3: we do it very simple. You hold your hand up

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Speaker 3: in a five, so we do it two times, which

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Speaker 3: means one two, one three, one four one five. You

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Speaker 3: put that down. One two three two four two five

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Speaker 3: you put that down. So that's how I do my

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Speaker 3: money line around Robbins. People do it three times, they

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Speaker 3: do four times. That's like, that's insane. You're gonna get

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Speaker 3: crazy odds you bet that way. I just do it

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Speaker 3: by times too, So I have a lot of people

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Speaker 3: ask about that. I keep forgetting to bring it up.

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Speaker 3: We do it five by two, so everyone that's asking

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Speaker 3: about that, we take it is the lower the lowest odds,

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Speaker 3: but it's the most likely to hit for you. Where

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Speaker 3: it's if you go for two for three, at least

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Speaker 3: you're getting paid out something. Where if you're doing it

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Speaker 3: three times, you go two for three, you basically win

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Speaker 3: nothing like you're you're taking a full on l there.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, for a money line around Robins, That's why

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Speaker 3: me try to try to go these big dogs, because

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Speaker 3: even if you go two for three, sometimes you'll still

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Speaker 3: make a profit depending on what dogs hit. Like last

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Speaker 3: week with Cleveland, if you had that in by chance,

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Speaker 3: I know I took it out, But if you had

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Speaker 3: that in there with the Jets, that's like eleven o one,

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Speaker 3: twelve to one payout. So those are the kind of

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Speaker 3: dogs we're looking for. And those money line around Robins.

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Speaker 2: All right, well let's see what we're gonna get. I

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Speaker 2: mean a line.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting the way they do this in the contest.

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Speaker 1: The lines, you know, you never know if you're going

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Speaker 1: to get the two and a half or the three

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Speaker 1: and a half because they're not doing hull numbers. So

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Speaker 1: with the Steelers, that'll be interesting. I continue to be

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Speaker 1: a Mike Tomblin backer and there's nothing you can do

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Speaker 1: to get me off that. So I've bet the three

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Speaker 1: regardless of whether it gets to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: And you know what I'm going to do if it

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Speaker 1: gets three and a half, I'll bet a little more,

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Speaker 1: because that's what you do. That's what you do when

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Speaker 1: you're a professional. If you like a game, you get

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Speaker 1: a better number, you bet a little more. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, there might be places where I can still

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Speaker 1: get a three, and I can buy out of the

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Speaker 1: three and just bet the three and a half. It's

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Speaker 1: called money management, it's called strategy. That's what we're trying

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Speaker 1: to exercise and practice here. All right, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the charters. It's so interesting to me that you're hearing

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Speaker 1: this because the notes that I was making last night

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Speaker 1: for the podcast that there is the on the field element.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned, you know, justin Herbert and his injury. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned sort of the inability of the Chargers to be

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Speaker 1: consistent in their decision making and make the right decisions

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Speaker 1: in the right spots because their coaching is so bad.

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Speaker 1: You mention how good the defense has been playing. And

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Speaker 1: then there's sort of the spot, right, you want to

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Speaker 1: fade the public team that's the Chiefs. You want to

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Speaker 1: play the team coming off a bad prime time loft

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Speaker 1: whist that's the Chargers. You want to in this spot,

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Speaker 1: you want to play the division underdog, right, because as

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Speaker 1: we said the other we said on Tuesday dogs and

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Speaker 1: division games are sixty games above five hundred against the

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Speaker 1: spread the last decade, sixty games above five hundred against

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Speaker 1: the spread. And you want to fade the home teams

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Speaker 1: which are forty six percent against the spread since twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 1: and when that home division is a favorite forty four

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Speaker 1: point seven percent against the spread. So then we've got

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Speaker 1: some on field stuff, We've got some spot stuff, and

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Speaker 1: then we've got very specific Patrick Mahomes stuff, right, which

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Speaker 1: is Patrick Mahomes when he is a favorite of more

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Speaker 1: than three and a half points, just it is not

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Speaker 1: as good at covering the spread. So it seems like

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Speaker 1: the wise guys are playing the field element of this

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Speaker 1: more than they're playing the spot and the precedent of

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Speaker 1: the charters.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and just not everyone's trend better. Some guys they

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Speaker 3: use trends of the tool, but it's not then it'll

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Speaker 3: be all on field with that. I guess what they're

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Speaker 3: seeing is just a great defense, and me and you

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Speaker 3: on the other side are seeing a Chiefs team that's

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Speaker 3: struggling offensively. I mean that red zone. Their red zone

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Speaker 3: woes are like the Eagles red zone woes. It's these

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Speaker 3: like really incredibly high powered offense. They got no problem

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Speaker 3: driving up and down the field. But these teams getting

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Speaker 3: their red zones and they're just getting shut down. And

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Speaker 3: it feels like the whole NFL has taken that Belichick

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Speaker 3: style of defense, which he did feels like twenty years ago.

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Speaker 3: And you can say he stole the Tampa two from

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Speaker 3: the Bucks and that style of defense, but he is

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Speaker 3: the one that really brought it to the focus of

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Speaker 3: all these teams are attacking downfield and this new style

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Speaker 3: of just let them kill you by a million cuts,

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Speaker 3: don't let them take the big shots, make them drive

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Speaker 3: all the way down the field, use all the clock up,

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Speaker 3: get to the red zone, get the stop. I mean,

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Speaker 3: if you're trading three for sevens. We talk all the time,

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Speaker 3: that's that's how teams lose. And this Chiefs team, they've

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Speaker 3: had those woes. Chargers teams no different. I mean, this

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Speaker 3: this team that not only do they struggle in the

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Speaker 3: red zone, they're doing those fourth down places Jets. So

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Speaker 3: we know the deal here we're when we're back in

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Speaker 3: this Chargers team, it's gonna be uncomfortable the whole way.

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Speaker 3: But I'm right there with you, like I just I

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Speaker 3: don't care what these guys are saying to me. I'm

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Speaker 3: just I'm going to be on the Chargers this week.

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Speaker 3: It's a big number in a divisional game. The Chargers

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Speaker 3: are going to be more desperate. They need this one badly,

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Speaker 3: And the only fear is the Herbert stuff. Like he did.

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Speaker 3: I totally agree with everything these guys are saying. He

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Speaker 3: did not look right. And say what you want about

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys. They are incredibly talented. It wasn't really like

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Speaker 3: their defense dominated right, Like we didn't hear Parsons dominate.

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Speaker 1: They did dominate the run game, like they really were

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Speaker 1: impressive with the way they stopped Eckler. But Herbert missed

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Speaker 1: so many throws to that game in the passing game.

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Speaker 3: That's what I mean. Like Parsons is a game record.

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Speaker 3: I didn't hear his name until that final drive where

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Speaker 3: he had the sack and the pressure that really ended

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Speaker 3: the game. So there's different things you can do is

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Speaker 3: scheme it up, but yeah, it's it is a spot

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Speaker 3: where it's like, how do we not take the Chargers here?

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Speaker 3: And here's a little stat from Evan that I love.

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Speaker 3: They just put in our chat. Chargers are fifth in

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Speaker 3: red zone percentage that the Chiefs are seventeenth in red

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Speaker 3: zone efficiency. So clearly the Chiefs have struggled in the

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Speaker 3: red zone. Being seventeenth in the league, you just don't

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Speaker 3: expect to see that where Chargers aren't as bad. Obviously

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Speaker 3: they're only fifth. So yeah, Chad, it's just I'm telling

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Speaker 3: you what one of things I'm worried about here is

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Speaker 3: if Herbert is really injured and something else is happening,

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Speaker 3: it's not just that opposite hand that's injured. Something else

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Speaker 3: is wrong with them. But this line doesn't make sense

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Speaker 3: to me. I don't get why it's so high. Uh,

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Speaker 3: I'm trying it to let it scare it off, scaring

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Speaker 3: me off, but I do have it as two points

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Speaker 3: of value. I make this ligne minus three and a

378
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Speaker 3: half to the Chiefs, So it's like tons of value

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Speaker 3: right now, my according to my model, and me mentally,

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Speaker 3: I feel like this is a great line. So yeah, Chad,

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Speaker 3: maybe maybe the Pros are trying to help us out

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Speaker 3: and warn us off this one, but I mean, you're

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Speaker 3: gonna hold hands, We're gonna walk right into it. We

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Speaker 3: just we can't avoid this one. It's such a big number,

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Speaker 3: and what feels like the Chargers should just be in

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Speaker 3: this game like they're They're all fence moves the ball

387
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Speaker 3: up and down the field. And I know how good

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Speaker 3: this Chiefs team is. But every time these two teams

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Speaker 3: get together, I mean, you talk talk all the time,

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Speaker 3: it always feels like it comes down to a three

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Speaker 3: or four points at the end of the game. That

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Speaker 3: the size this game. Usually it's the Chiefs winning. So

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Speaker 3: we'll take the spread. Maybe we'll throw a little on

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Speaker 3: the money line. But my confidence in them winning out

395
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Speaker 3: right not huge. But them to cover the spread, I'm

396
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Speaker 3: feel pretty good about it. Chad, there's Chargers all.

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Speaker 2: Right, Detroit at Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: We like this at two and a half a lot,

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Speaker 1: but I do think we're a little suspect. I'm encouraged

400
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Speaker 1: that you said the wise guys have been coming in

401
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Speaker 1: on the Ravens. We have to consistently believe the Lions

402
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Speaker 1: are overvalued until we no longer believe the Lions are overvalued.

403
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Speaker 1: We love the Ravens as a short home favorite, even

404
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Speaker 1: though Lamar is terrible as a favorite. Even though golf

405
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Speaker 1: is brilliant against the spread the past five years.

406
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Speaker 2: We don't love the lines in the spot.

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Speaker 1: Consistently coming off of big wins outdoors in games where

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Speaker 1: the wise guys were against them, it has to crack.

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Speaker 1: If they don't crack, then they probably should be the

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Speaker 1: it's on favorite to win the NFC.

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Speaker 3: This has got to be the fox hole fox hole

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Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

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Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

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Speaker 3: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. There are so few

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Speaker 3: people jumping our foxhil here with us, Chad, like the

416
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Speaker 3: public is totally all in on this Lions team. Yes,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't matter what mean you and say. We can

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Speaker 3: beg him and try to convince him. Maybe they'll listen

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Speaker 3: to this. Right now, we think there's gonna be bad weather.

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Speaker 3: Montgomery is out, Gibbs is out, So the number one

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Speaker 3: and two running backs are out for the Detroit Lions. Reynolds,

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Speaker 3: the guy who came and made that incredible block last week.

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Speaker 3: That another running back for Detroit. He has not practiced

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Speaker 3: all week. So their identity is through the run. I mean,

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Speaker 3: golf obviously picked it up last week against Tampa. That

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Speaker 3: was on a clear, perfect sunny day. You're not getting

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Speaker 3: that in Baltimore. And Income's Lamar in that running style offense.

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Speaker 3: And yes, I agree they're trying to pass more. When

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Speaker 3: it gets down to it, they just want to win.

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Speaker 3: Like Lamar said that himself. If the coach needs him

431
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 3: to run and the game plans makes it that way,

432
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 3: he'll run the ball. And this is the perfect, perfect

433
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 3: opportunity to run the ball against a team that you know.

434
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 3: Say what you want about this Lions team. They are

435
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 3: different outdoors and I get, I get the credence of

436
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 3: last week how they played so well defensively against Tampa.

437
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 3: Look at all the splits right now. This this Ravens team.

438
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 3: Not only do they have a top five, top six

439
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 3: defense and dvoa their offenses right there. So it's a

440
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,400
Speaker 3: team that the only fear for me is the fact

441
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 3: that they're coming back from playing a broad chat like

442
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 3: that's the only word, because I keep having that Evan

443
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 3: stat pop in my head about those close games in

444
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter on these London teams. But even if

445
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 3: this is minus three and a half in our contest,

446
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna let it scare me off like I'll

447
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 3: bite the bullet. I'll ride it. But obviously, dream scenario

448
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 3: chat is the minus two and a half but right

449
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,479
Speaker 3: now I'm almost positible. I check this one. You can

450
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: get the two and a half in contest, So hopefully

451
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 3: you guys will move the number bill we're doing this

452
00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:00,040
Speaker 3: live show, and we can get the Ravens again. But

453
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: we know the deal and the contest. If the line

454
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 3: moves to whatever it is, the Ravens minus one twenty

455
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 3: at minus three, it's gonna be three and a half,

456
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,360
Speaker 3: or minus one fifteen, it's gonna be three and a half.

457
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: It's still at one ten. They might give us the

458
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 3: minus two and a half. But the public is loving

459
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 3: the Lions. All the money, everything's coming on their money line.

460
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 3: All the money's coming on their plus three. We say

461
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 3: it all the time, Chad. They might get away with

462
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 3: one here. They sometimes the public does. But public dogs

463
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: almost always die, almost always die. And you saw last

464
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: look at Tennessee. Tennessee had a million chances to cover

465
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 3: against the Ravens. It was there a million times, but

466
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 3: it just never got there. And that's just a classic

467
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 3: public dog where it's like there's a reason they're giving

468
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: you all those free numbers, like they know what they're

469
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 3: doing bumping this number up. So I am shocked to

470
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 3: see the reverse reverse line movement, just because so much

471
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: money is coming in on this Lions team and their

472
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 3: money line, but not gonna let them make me wayver Chad.

473
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 3: The Lions are totally overval even I think even was

474
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 3: a brand Anderson. Someone at our own company put the

475
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 3: Lines as the number one team the NFL right now, Like,

476
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 3: what are we doing here? People? So good, good spot

477
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 3: to fade one of the most hype teams of football

478
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 3: around this Lions team. It's Baltimore. Gentlemen, The gods will

479
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:18,959
Speaker 3: not save you.

480
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: Your conviction has just given me so much confidence in

481
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 1: the bet that we made, because I was a little

482
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: bit nervous about it even at the two and a half,

483
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: because of how well the Lions have been.

484
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: Playing and how bad the weather helps. The weather helps,

485
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: for sure, the weather helps.

486
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: Highest win game this week sixteen miles per hour right

487
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: now projected the Washington Commanders and the Giants are fifteen.

488
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:48,479
Speaker 1: Also reminder, unders tend to hit in these high wind games.

489
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: We saw it again last week. We saw it with

490
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 1: the Bears in Minnesota. Was a high wind game. The

491
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: under hit so Cleveland.

492
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: Obviously, and again the win, the win mattered. You watched

493
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 3: the data tracker on that kick. The wind shifted it

494
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 3: almost two feet, and that's why that field goal was missed,

495
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 3: which if you would have hit it would have lost

496
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 3: that under So the win the winds definitely matter.

497
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 2: Dude.

498
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: Look at you looking at the data tracker moving the

499
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: kick two feet. This is why you're a professional. You

500
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 1: are looking at everything, no detail. You're the Bill Belichick,

501
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 1: Bellichickie and BELLACHICKI and research right there. Simon Hunter, all right,

502
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 1: this might be our big balls Green Bay at Denver.

503
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: We loved it too. It's now down to one. Still

504
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,679
Speaker 1: Denver is a underdog. By the way, Denver. We liked

505
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: it at plus two. Denver's at plus one. It's a

506
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: huge pros Joe's game with the pros coming in on Denver.

507
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: You didn't mention it in sharp calls, but to me,

508
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: this feels big balls of the.

509
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 3: Week and not truth is because no one's putting more

510
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 3: than I've only to put five figures on the let

511
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 3: alone six figures, Like this is just any When I

512
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 3: talk to you, this is like, yeah, I bed Denver,

513
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 3: but you know, maybe put ten k on it. Like

514
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 3: no one, no one's going too crazy about this one

515
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 3: because the fear is they're going to be in tank mode.

516
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 3: They own their own first, first overall pick. You have

517
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 3: that clip circulator of Sean Payton talking about if he

518
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 3: had a team, he would tank for Williams at the

519
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: number one kV position. And even if it's not Williams,

520
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: that kid Drake from you and see like you got

521
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 3: two studs at the top of the draft. You have

522
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 3: a corpse of a team like they don't have. It's

523
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: not a one draft fix. Like Sean knows that watching

524
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 3: this team every day in practice, it's going to be

525
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:40,959
Speaker 3: a two to three year rebuild. So I'm all, I

526
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,239
Speaker 3: want to take Denver. I like Denver. It's a good

527
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 3: number on Denver, Green Bay. We know they're not what

528
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 3: people perceive them to be, right. They're an offense at

529
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 3: sloppy Jordan Love, he is all within the system. If

530
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 3: the Reid is there, he can usually make the throw,

531
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:57,959
Speaker 3: but he's not the last couple of weeks he's been

532
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 3: missing those easy read throws and Lafour will scheme it

533
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 3: up where he'll scheme guys open for Love and Love's

534
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 3: just not connecting. So if that's the fear here where

535
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: it's like this is the perfect spot to get right

536
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 3: for Jordan Love, like the guys are going to be

537
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 3: open Denver's defense. You watch them on film, They're disorganized,

538
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 3: they're sloppy, they're terrible attackling. Like, I mean, we broke

539
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 3: down film month a month ago about how horrible attacking

540
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 3: tackling is. It's gotten no better if you go through

541
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 3: all their games or tackling, it's still incredibly sloppy. So

542
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 3: that's the fear of Chad where it's like if me,

543
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 3: you were just playing the numbers and blind resume, we

544
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: would happily like close your eyes, hold your nose, you

545
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 3: take Denver here. But just looking at paper and on

546
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 3: the trends, I mean even reading some of Evans trends.

547
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,239
Speaker 3: A lot of these trends favor green Bay, surprisingly, like

548
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 3: there are a couple of things at point to you

549
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 3: actually want to take green Bay and these trends, but

550
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: I just hate this game, like I want to take Denver,

551
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 3: but oh man, like easily me and you both can

552
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: see them easily losing on ite Go at the end

553
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 3: of this game, like they're just a loser team that

554
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 3: doesn't know how to win. So the numbers that did

555
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: everything you said, buy and low it's all there on Denver.

556
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 3: It's just it's just hard for me to stomach right now.

557
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 3: Them is one of our five.

558
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: I'm a loser baby.

559
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: So this doesn't feel like I was hesitant to wake

560
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 1: my hotel neighbors with a full throated big balls commitment

561
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 1: because I wasn't feeling like we were in sync on that.

562
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 3: I know, I know what our big balls is. You

563
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 3: know what our big balls is.

564
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 1: I don't, which is why i'm sort of I mean,

565
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: I feel like there's not that many games that you

566
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 1: and I on Tuesday really zeroed in on for today,

567
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: so it can only be one other game. And the

568
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 1: game that we're talking about to me doesn't feel big

569
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: balls zy. It feels like the complete right side. So

570
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 1: maybe that's what we're talking about, and move us right

571
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: into it, which is the Philadelphia Eagles at minus two

572
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 1: and a half. This was, as Simon says, at one

573
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 1: and a half. The pros have been piling on this number,

574
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 1: moving it up. So I don't see why how this

575
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 1: could be our big balls. It feels like the right bet.

576
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, because it's not the big balls. It's take zero

577
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 3: balls to better. Okay.

578
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,479
Speaker 1: Then then then then I think I know what it is.

579
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,880
Speaker 1: And again, like you and I talk about this, there's

580
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 1: a couple other games that we were interested in that

581
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: we were waiting on. So one of those games is

582
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: going to be our big balls. I think I know

583
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: what it is, not okay now, okay.

584
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, Eagles, Like we said that ideal that it's moved

585
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 3: so much, but no real fear here, Like this Eagles

586
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 3: team feels like they're cover this number, they're gonna get

587
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 3: blown out, Like there's no feels like going between with

588
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 3: the Miami team, and you know, I already love this number.

589
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: The only real fear, which I said on Tuesday or

590
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:09,479
Speaker 3: maybe a Sunday show, is the health of the Eagles.

591
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, if if slays out again, if Carter

592
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 3: was out, and then if you throw on top of

593
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 3: that that Smith might be on lane, Johnson's out. Yeah,

594
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 3: I probably would buy out of my position if I could,

595
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: and maybe just just watch this game as a fan.

596
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 3: But it looks like those guys are all going to

597
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 3: be back. And you've seen the number kind of move

598
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 3: against Miami. And then we got the update yesterday or

599
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 3: maybe the you know, depends when you got the update,

600
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 3: but there's supposed to be weather now it's supposally be

601
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: in the forties, supposed to be cold, windy and wet

602
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 3: Sunday night. Yes, Miami is probably the best running team

603
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 3: we've ever seen right to start the year. They're incredible

604
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 3: running the ball, but that all goes through their passing game.

605
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 3: Like they don't get the five six man boxes, which

606
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 3: you just never seen a football unless Tyreek Hill and

607
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 3: Wada are burning the guys downfield. And if you take

608
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 3: away that ability to put the ball downfield, and the

609
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 3: Eagles can bring eight guys down to the box, nine

610
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 3: guys down into the box, that will easily take away

611
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 3: the shrun game. And you saw in that Bill's game.

612
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: We talk all the time about that Bill's game. Their

613
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 3: front four got pressure on to it. They took away

614
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 3: their run. They forced them to be one dimensional, and

615
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 3: that's what just destroyed that Miami team. So everyone can

616
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 3: go through the records Miami incredible offense, but what do

617
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 3: they do. They beat up on bad teams, so shocking

618
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: and knowing that they absolutely blew out the Giants and

619
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 3: you know they blew out Detroit. But uh yeah, it's

620
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 3: it's a good it's a good spot to back an

621
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: Eagles team in a bounce back spot against the Miami

622
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 3: team that you know, they're just like the Lions. They're

623
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 3: the new toy, They're the all hype team. Most people

624
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 3: are gonna have them as a number one or two

625
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: teams this week power ranking wise, And it's just an

626
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 3: overreaction to a team that, yes, they have an incredible offense,

627
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: they still have a lot of holes and that defense

628
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 3: has a ton of holes. And if the Eagles can

629
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 3: get back to what they do so well, which is

630
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 3: running the ball, especially in this kind of weather, how

631
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 3: do you not love the Eagles in a bounce back

632
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 3: spot here, especially at home, in a game that they need,

633
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 3: like they need this win. They have it a gauntlet

634
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 3: coming up, like they have the Cowboys. They got the Bills,

635
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: they got the Chiefs. It's just a really rough road

636
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 3: up ahead. So I'm not going to overreact to that

637
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 3: Jets game chat. We talk all the time the Chiefs.

638
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 3: Mahomes struggled against the Jets, huge bounce back game and

639
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 3: win the following game the Bills. Josh Allen really struggled

640
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 3: against this team. The Jets Week one destroyed the Raiders

641
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 3: of following the week, like we've seen that where the

642
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 3: Jets just have a really good defense and scheme like

643
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 3: they're one of the best scheme teams of football right now,

644
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 3: where I think they have the second least amount of

645
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 3: points giving up in the second half, some of the

646
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 3: best second half adjustments in all football. The Jets team.

647
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 3: You cannot say that about Miami. Like Miami their adjustments

648
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 3: is we just score more than you, and I don't

649
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: think they're going to get away with that here in

650
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: this Eagles game. So would still put them in our

651
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: contest a two and a half check.

652
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: By the way, I think you said the Dolphins beat Detroit.

653
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: I think you'm at Denver and opponents are combined nine

654
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: and twenty five straight up this season Dolphins opponents. So

655
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: they're winning dominant ways, they're winning in historical ways. Most

656
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: points per game in NFL history, the nineteen fifty Rams

657
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: thirty eight point eight, the twenty thirteen Broncos thirty seven

658
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: point nine, twenty twenty three Dolphins thirty seven point two.

659
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 1: Everything you said is right. The other thing that's interesting

660
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: is that Jalen Hurts not very good against pressure. The

661
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: Dolphins cannot bring pressure, so there's another sort of advantage

662
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: for the Eagles in addition to all the things that

663
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: we just said, and look about that Jets game. We

664
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 1: talked about this, it felt like a loss that was

665
00:32:58,200 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: waiting to happen.

666
00:32:59,120 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 4: Right.

667
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: The Eagles have been playing with fire all season, winning

668
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: in spite of themselves not playing great, still figuring out

669
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 1: the new system offensively, so that game looked like it

670
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 1: was a potential loss. It's why we were on the

671
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: Jets at plus seven. So I love I love the

672
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 1: Eagles and a bounce back spot.

673
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, they probably should have won. I mean, they scored

674
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 3: fourteen and that was a first quarter and then they

675
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 3: didn't score a single point the rest of the game.

676
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 3: That's just random. They scored the fourteen and dominated the

677
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: whole game. I believe it was fourteen twelve, and then

678
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 3: they had another turnover. So if Herts didn't turn the

679
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: bowl over three times and have a complete meltdown, no

680
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 3: doubt the Egos would have won that game. This number

681
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 3: is probably what minus three, So once again, you just

682
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: you got to take the free value there when it's like,

683
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 3: don't be so focused on what happened last week. It's

684
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 3: a new week. I agree with the struggles of the

685
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: egos offense. We talked, that's why we like the Jets.

686
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 3: Last week, the Egles have struggled in the red zone.

687
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 3: Miami's the perfect team to get right against. Their defense

688
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 3: is just bad. Not only are they bad in the

689
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 3: red zone, they're just that altogether.

690
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to some other games we were

691
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: interested in. That will include our big Balls Better of

692
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: the week. So we're moving this from interested into probably

693
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: playing it. And a quick reminder about our contest picks.

694
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 1: We typically enter our initial picks into the content website

695
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 1: contest website on Thursdays after the show, So after the show,

696
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 1: Simon and il Chap we'll sort of nail down and

697
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: confirm the conversation we just had, we'll put the picks in.

698
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: But like anybody else in the contest, we sometimes change

699
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: our picks before kickoff on Sunday. If you want to

700
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 1: see the unofficial picks we've entered in the contest before

701
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 1: we lock on Sunday, just go to the contest site

702
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 1: Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com, search for the faves five.

703
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 2: That's us.

704
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 1: We have the initial picks, usually visible usually by Thursday afternoon.

705
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: We usually talk about it right after we get off

706
00:34:55,600 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: this podcast, so you'll see what we're initially through again,

707
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 1: and then we talk again on Sunday afternoon after we

708
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: do convince me and we decide if we are going

709
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: to move any picks. But then we got to move

710
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: all of them because lines lunch change as we sometimes

711
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: over the course of the week. All Right, here we

712
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 1: go Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Chicago Bears. We were

713
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: hoping this moved three and a half. It hasn't yet,

714
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 1: but Simon, I have a feeling right now this is

715
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: going to.

716
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: Be our big balls bet of the week.

717
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 3: No, I'm not letting you do it to the fans.

718
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: We're staying away from your Bears, Chad, stop trying to

719
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 3: force your Bears in every week. We're staying away.

720
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: Wow. I totally thought this was going to be that.

721
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 3: No, I'm with you on the Bears, but I'm not

722
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 3: putting them in the contest. I'm not making listeners of

723
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 3: their show about them.

724
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: You don't want to bet a bad team with a

725
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 1: terrible defense and a quarterback against the worst team that

726
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 1: is a suspect coach that just had a big win.

727
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 2: This is a smash spot.

728
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 3: Have a bear, as Sigmon, I'll be on, but I

729
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: got no way of making a number on this game.

730
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 3: I got no I got zero reid on the Raiders,

731
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 3: zero read on the Bears. This this is the toughest

732
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: game to map out for you this week. It's like

733
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 3: I'm on the Bears, the pros are on the Bears.

734
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: Chad just talked about like this is a spot play,

735
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 3: but model wise impossible to make a number. I got

736
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 3: zero read on this kid coming in for you. Guys.

737
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 3: All I know about your quarterback is his dad's one

738
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 3: of the greatest arm wrestlers in the world. He's a

739
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 3: complete nuts up. So no, if you don't know that chat,

740
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 3: you need to look up this kid's dad. He's an

741
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 3: actually legend Simon.

742
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: I've been rooting for this kid since preseason. I've been

743
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: waiting for this kid to be the number two since.

744
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: Like the Bears fans out Jesus Christ.

745
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 2: I know, I know it's true. It was it was

746
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 2: him or Nathan Peterman.

747
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 1: So like the text chains I have from preseason about

748
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: this company, you cannot believe.

749
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 3: Please, guy, don't let Chad convince me to take the

750
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 3: Bear Sunday morning. I'm hoping I have the strength and

751
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 3: the with with you know I can't do it, Chad,

752
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 3: I can't do it. Last week I felt so good

753
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 3: not having them, even though we took a two and

754
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 3: three a week it's like, thank God we have that

755
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 3: Bears game, because that killed me a thousand times over.

756
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 3: It's like all the opportunities were there, and then as

757
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 3: soon as you saw Hurts get hurt, you're like, we're

758
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 3: never going to get to this number, are we? And

759
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 3: it feels the same with this week, where it's like

760
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,240
Speaker 3: everything in my body is telling me to take the Bears.

761
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 3: Team like I can't wrap my head around the Raiders

762
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 3: are about to be four and three through seven weeks.

763
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 3: It's it's mind boggling, but that's how football goes. You

764
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: get nice schedule breaks, like certain games match up certain ways.

765
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 3: This is one of them, I guess, Chad, like, I

766
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 3: don't know. I want to take the Bears. I hate

767
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 3: the number though, I'll just I'll just stay away from

768
00:37:58,120 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 3: this one.

769
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: Please God give us the courage to change what must

770
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 1: be altered, serenity to accept what cannot be helped, and

771
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: insight to know the one from the other. I feel

772
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: like we need to do the surrendering prayer every single

773
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: time we talk about the Chicago Bears.

774
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 3: I agree, so.

775
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 1: Simon, as I was saying about the big balls better

776
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: of the week, the Atlanta Falcons.

777
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 2: There we go two and a half point.

778
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 3: We founder people.

779
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,359
Speaker 1: At the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We were hoping to move

780
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: the three. But right now the wise guys love it.

781
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: Simon seems to be convinced from the sharp calls that

782
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:41,240
Speaker 1: this will now be our big Balls bet of the week,

783
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: and it makes me sick. I cannot believe. Look, we

784
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 1: said we were gonna have to do this anyways, but

785
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: we were just hoping it would get to three.

786
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 2: We're going to bet on this Atlanta Tampa Bay game.

787
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: And to be honest, this game, if we're doing the

788
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 1: luck rankings, and we like when we do the luck ring,

789
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 1: we like there to be a certain threshold before we

790
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 1: officially make it a luck rankings game. So this can't

791
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: be an official luck rankings game. But the Falcons have

792
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: ended up in the bad beats scenario for the past

793
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 1: six weeks, brutal luck for them this year so far.

794
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: This game is one ranking place away from a luck game,

795
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 1: so to me, it's essentially a luck rankings game. Saw

796
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: that this morning from Nick Giffen in our slack channel

797
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,359
Speaker 1: before we came on the air. So I agree with you,

798
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: it's got it, it's got to we gotta do it.

799
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 3: Got I hate it and we're just you know, the

800
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 3: argument here is your buy alone Atlanta team that is

801
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: rider going to really throw the three picks in the game.

802
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 3: Is you really have a total meltdown again? No, we

803
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: talked about that last week. It was like that was

804
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: a good spot to fade him that that you know,

805
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: he had a game he is Game of the Year

806
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 3: two weeks ago, and we knew he was gonna have

807
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 3: a down game the following week. I know it's gonna

808
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 3: be a total meltdown against Washington now, but Chatterary told

809
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 3: us all the stats, like they were moving the ball

810
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 3: up and down the field on Washington, they just kept

811
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 3: having you know, bad turnovers in the red zone or

812
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 3: making little mistakes here and there. So this is another

813
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 3: game where wouldn't be shocked if the Bucks do somehow win.

814
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 3: But we're gonna trust the number of trust the points

815
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,439
Speaker 3: and take it that they'll win by two or less.

816
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: And a lot of pros love the spot. I'm like

817
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 3: still having a tough time getting there. That's why I

818
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 3: feel like this has to be a big boss by

819
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 3: the week where it's like you really do just gotta

820
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 3: take the numbers, like you got to just trust the numbers,

821
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 3: back them here, and it's a tough one the stomach chat.

822
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 3: This is a tough, tough game to back, like me

823
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 3: and you hate this kid, Ritter, He's just it's not

824
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 3: a starter in this league. But we'll play the numbers

825
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 3: and say the Bucks team, yes they are good, but

826
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 3: they're a little overvalid. Right, they're not. But there's a

827
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 3: reason I think they're still like plus three fifty or

828
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 3: plus four hundred to win this division even though they're

829
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 3: leading this division right now. So yeah, I love that.

830
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 3: I love that play from Dvon. Ritter has yet to

831
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 3: cover our first half spread in the NFL. So if

832
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 3: you do like Tampa Tampa first half right with us

833
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 3: Atlanta second half.

834
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: By the way, producer Tito, who normally ignores everything that's

835
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: happening in the podcast to just stroll through the blogs

836
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: of various South Florida sports teams, let us know that

837
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the chat said no to Chad

838
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: trying to make the Bears the big balls bet of

839
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:40,959
Speaker 1: the week.

840
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 3: So it's going to be love you guys.

841
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: It's going to be The Atlanta Falcons is our big balls.

842
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 1: Our foxhole is Baltimore minus two and a half. Atlanta's

843
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: are a big balls simon. Can you name the fastest

844
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:57,919
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?

845
00:41:58,280 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 3: Game Time?

846
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,439
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game

847
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One is sponsored the show. Number two,

848
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got

849
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals fund all sorts of tickets, including

850
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: pro and college football games. Speaking of which this is

851
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: normally when I say I'm opening game Time right now

852
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: to look for prices of games in my area, I

853
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,879
Speaker 1: can already tell you I have bought tickets through game

854
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: Time for this weekend to the Penn State at Ohio

855
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 1: Stake g inme. That's how much I love game Time.

856
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: I use it all the time. I'm a real life customer, folks.

857
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 1: I bought it for tickets going to an event this weekend.

858
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,

859
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 1: get out have some fun this week Go sweat your

860
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 1: bets live and in person, and you can redeem come

861
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase terms apply again.

862
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: Just download the app and enter code favorites for twenty

863
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: dollars off last minute tickets lowest price. Garrin teed, all right,

864
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 1: before we get to the money Line Underdog Round Robin,

865
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 1: reminder that the Week seven contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards.

866
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 1: On Monday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy war

867
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 1: writes a weekly piece about tiebreaker strategy, and a link

868
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: to the article can be found in this episode's description.

869
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 1: If you want a leg up in the contest, good look,

870
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: all right, Simon, Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. My dog blocks

871
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:39,279
Speaker 1: your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog. Well, we're probably

872
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: gonna put at Landa in there. Yeah, I think we're

873
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 1: probably gonna put Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh in there. I feel like

874
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: you want to put the Colts in there.

875
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 3: We can. They're up to plus three, so definitely definitely

876
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 3: gonna throw some on their their number, but not the

877
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 3: best spot. Like Watson now left the door open. Then

878
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 3: he might be coming back this so this number could move.

879
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 3: So if you do want to put the Colts in,

880
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: maybe wait, because if Watson gets cleared, I could see

881
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 3: this going up another point or two. So yeah, if

882
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 3: you want to lock it in right now, I wouldn't

883
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: put the Colts in because I think you get better

884
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 3: value come Sunday.

885
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 2: What about the New York Football Giants?

886
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,839
Speaker 3: Yes, which is another game, Like I thought about there's

887
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 3: two division games. I thought I would making our big

888
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 3: balls it was the Giants or the Patriots. But ah

889
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,240
Speaker 3: Man couldn't get there.

890
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: Simon, I might have to chant the serenity prayer if

891
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 1: we have a conversation about putting the New England Patriots anywhere.

892
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 3: No, we're not. I promise we wouldn't do it. We're

893
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 3: not doing it, Like I just Evan keeps posting the

894
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 3: stat It's like I think it's oh to twelve now

895
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: mac as a dog in his last twelve straight, or

896
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: it's just it's over thirteen. No, it's you can't. I

897
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,439
Speaker 3: can't wrap my head around it. Like I just thinking

898
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 3: about the amount of money I've lost on this streak.

899
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 3: Back in Bill Belichick as a dog and all that goodwill,

900
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 3: all that money. I mate, I'm backing him with Tom

901
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 3: Brady is probably gone at this point, like it really is.

902
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: So that's the tough part where it's like I keep

903
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 3: trying to come back the other side. It's like, oh,

904
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 3: eventually it'll come back, right, Eventually Mac will go the

905
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 3: other way where it's like he'll win sixth straight as

906
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 3: a dog. That's probably not gonna happen. His career is

907
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 3: probably gonna be over long before he'll get that opportunity.

908
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, we'll avoid that one for the money line

909
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 3: round robin. Okay, so we have Giants Atlanta. Gotta get

910
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in there.

911
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Giants Atlanta Pittsburgh. I mean the Chargers I don't like.

912
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 3: But yeah, I would do it though, just because no

913
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: one's no one likes it, right.

914
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,879
Speaker 1: Right, it's like no one, no one likes it.

915
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 2: I mean the I think the other one is probably Denver.

916
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:53,919
Speaker 3: It's it's minus one oh five, so it doesn't really

917
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: count for us. Okay, we need a dog, we need

918
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:00,240
Speaker 3: a plus. Do we already put your shitty ass?

919
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 2: I was gonna say we did put the Bears in.

920
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, we gotta like Raiders. Going four and three makes

921
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 3: my skin crawl. I just can't run my head around it.

922
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:11,959
Speaker 3: So we won't torture people put in our final five,

923
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 3: but we'll throw them in the round robin.

924
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, LA Chargers,

925
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:29,240
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears grous Simon, it's time to make Little Caesars,

926
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: which is the official sponsor of the NFL, part of

927
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: your game day, Simon, does eating Little Caesars alone at

928
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 1: home on game day feel like you're taking yourself out

929
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 1: on a date?

930
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 3: It does while I cry.

931
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 1: Listen, There's nothing better than Little Caesars Pizza anytime. Order

932
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 1: online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before NFL

933
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: games and get ready for some football and fun. Choose

934
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the topics you

935
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,280
Speaker 1: craze crave Simon, what do you think about this motto

936
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: I invented? If betting moneyline dogs is must, then ordering

937
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 1: crazy crust is a must.

938
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 3: You hear a lyrical genius cheb Thank you.

939
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 2: However you order your fiza, you win.

940
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone's scores with convene delivery or

941
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup, so grab some friends

942
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game.

943
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 3: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

944
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 2: I think our Survivor pick last week was Buffalo, So this.

945
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 3: Week going to use the rams. Damn it.

946
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 2: Oh my god, it's so weird. I was just going

947
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 2: to say that, Yeah.

948
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,879
Speaker 3: But this week is another week. I feel like there's

949
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 3: only one choice to make Seahawks play in Arizona. So

950
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 3: we got another game before Caler Murray's back. I know

951
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 3: this one feels like a trap and it's usually not

952
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 3: gonna end well, but there's no James Connor. I told

953
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 3: you that. To me, is such a big deal for

954
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 3: this offense. Seahawks just lost a brutal game against Cincinnati

955
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 3: where I believe there are all offense when one for

956
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 3: five in the red zone. This is a gut right

957
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 3: spot for the Seahawks at home against Arizona divisional game.

958
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 3: Give me the Seahawks Chat for a survivor.

959
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

960
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.

961
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962
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963
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964
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,600
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965
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966
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968
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969
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970
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971
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973
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Speaker 2: All right.

974
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 1: He's the star of our show every single episode, and

975
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:09,919
Speaker 1: on Thursdays, we're lucky enough to be joined by Action

976
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 1: Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, the engine behind the

977
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 1: great stats and nuggets you hear in the show and

978
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 1: across our network.

979
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, you get the last word.

980
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 3: The last word. With Evan Abrams, we're.

981
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,280
Speaker 2: Finished talking going on fellas.

982
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 4: So for today, I'm giving you two theories to kind

983
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 4: of live by. Number one would be the business Trip.

984
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 4: So teams off of a loss playing on the road.

985
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,280
Speaker 4: They're just good bets in general. Their five hundred ats

986
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 4: are better. In the eighteen of the last twenty one seasons,

987
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,879
Speaker 4: forty games above five hundred, last five years over five

988
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:53,240
Speaker 4: hundred ats all five years, two thousand game sample size.

989
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 4: So teams off a loss on the road call it

990
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 4: a business trip. This week, that would be Atlanta, Arizona Chargers,

991
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 4: Green Bay, San Francisco. That's that number two. Just remember

992
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 4: in this whole gambling thing, it's usually never that easy.

993
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 4: So well break the habit. Teams who were awful loss

994
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 4: and are over five hundred on the season. So good

995
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 4: teams when they're home favorites the next week, and you're like,

996
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 4: gotta win. One seventy seven, two fifteen, and nine five

997
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 4: under five hundred against the spread every year since twenty seventeen.

998
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:36,720
Speaker 4: So now fade New Orleans, fades Seattle and I'm sorry,

999
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 4: yes that would be fade the Eagles, oh those time.

1000
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 4: But it's basically like you assume a team's gonna win

1001
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:48,320
Speaker 4: their home favorites. Everything looks right, maybe win, but maybe

1002
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 4: not cover, So not great for those small spreads.

1003
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 3: Look at you now, you just got your asses whipped

1004
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 3: by a bunch of goddamn nerds.

1005
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then I leave you with this last one

1006
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 4: Saints unders.

1007
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 3: I just don't know how you don't talk about it.

1008
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,439
Speaker 4: So Thursday Night Football, they're going forward again, but they've

1009
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 4: gone under the total six straight games this year, twelve

1010
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 4: straight games going to last year fifteen and one to

1011
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 4: the under in their last sixteen. But I leave you

1012
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,880
Speaker 4: with this, if they go under on Thursday Night Football,

1013
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,720
Speaker 4: that'll be thirteen straight unders. That will be a record

1014
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:26,480
Speaker 4: in the Wildcard Era. No team has gone over or

1015
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 4: under thirteen consecutive games since nineteen ninety. So see if

1016
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 4: the Saints can do it.

1017
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Evan, that was really disappointing.

1018
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 4: Listen, Sometimes I give you the great stuff, sometimes I

1019
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:41,280
Speaker 4: give you the reality.

1020
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,399
Speaker 3: It's just who I am. I'm in a numbers guy.

1021
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:48,839
Speaker 2: I apologize, Simon. Does that scare you at all?

1022
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 3: No, Chad, That's why they play the game. Brother, Well

1023
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 3: let's get those nerds.

1024
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 4: No, we wait.

1025
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 1: To recap our foxhol Baltimore minus three are big balls.

1026
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: Bet of the week the Chicago I'm sorry, it's the

1027
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons plus two and a half. Right, I almost

1028
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 1: got you guys there. The exec decision is the LA

1029
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:18,720
Speaker 1: Chargers plus five and a half. Simon says, despite Evan stats,

1030
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 1: he is undaunted. Philadelphia minus one and a half. Our

1031
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: round robin Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, LA Chargers, Chicago Bears,

1032
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 1: the Phase five. It's interesting, Simon, if we had to

1033
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,319
Speaker 1: lock in right now, we're going to talk about this.

1034
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 2: We get off the show and we look at the lines.

1035
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 3: Together, the faves five.

1036
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 1: For now, I'm not sure I know our five. I

1037
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,800
Speaker 1: know we want the Eagles, I know we'd want Atlanta.

1038
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 1: I know we'd want the Chargers, but I don't think yes,

1039
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:53,919
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So that's one, two, three, four. I don't

1040
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,919
Speaker 1: know that I'm confident of our fifth right now.

1041
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll find it. I mean there's we'll find it.

1042
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 3: I would say there's three of four games we can

1043
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 3: all flight for. That depends on what number again in

1044
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 3: the actual contest.

1045
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: YEP Bears might be one of them. Before we sign off, reminder,

1046
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 1: Simon and I will be back with our week seven

1047
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 1: recap episode live on the Action Network YouTube page this

1048
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 1: Sunday and every Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern. For

1049
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, I am Chad Milman. Download us from Spotify,

1050
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,

1051
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 1: wes five stars, say whatever you want feedback as a

1052
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 1: gift until Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern.

1053
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 4: Love you.

1054
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: Action network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1055
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1056
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler