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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action Boss.

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Speaker 1: Eleven trained men face to face on the field of play,

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Speaker 1: like the Barians.

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Speaker 2: At the gates of room.

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Speaker 1: That's gone. That's gone one quiet a time, cours large.

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Speaker 1: See that thing up there, that's a scoreboard.

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Speaker 3: Hey, if they didn't know that sign of a gun

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Speaker 3: up there there wouldn't mean anything. They can't cover that

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Speaker 3: in a million years.

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Speaker 1: So it's like stealing over that.

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Speaker 2: This is probably the sporting them all the time.

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Speaker 1: You ain't need us no more.

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Speaker 3: Now up out, all right?

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Speaker 1: Hit that horn, babe, let's dad.

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Speaker 2: What's up? Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I'm joined by

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Speaker 3: Action Network NFL experts Chris Raybond to go over the

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Speaker 3: most exciting NFL day in May. It's the NFL schedule release. Chris,

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Speaker 3: what's going on? Man?

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Speaker 2: How are you? It's been a few weeks.

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Speaker 1: What's going on? Evan? I don't know. Is this the

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Speaker 1: most exciting day or is it just the next time

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Speaker 1: Trey Hendrickson throws some shade at U Zach Taylor. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, it could be anything. Maybe ever Roder signs.

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Speaker 1: I mean, who knows?

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Speaker 3: For what it's worth, we already knew the opponents. A

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Speaker 3: lot of people have been talking about this, but I

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Speaker 3: kind of like the schedule release. I mean, I like

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Speaker 3: to see where they play. I go on a trip

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Speaker 3: every year where I go to a different NFL city,

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Speaker 3: So schedule release is always about the time where I'm

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Speaker 3: trying to figure out where the trip's going to be.

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Speaker 3: So there's a lot of fun things involved in it.

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Speaker 3: But listen, at least I'm excited about it. So today

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Speaker 3: we're just gonna go through.

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Speaker 1: A bunch of different stor you can't just you can't

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Speaker 1: just throw that out there and not tell which one

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Speaker 1: you're going.

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Speaker 3: We don't know yet. We don't know yet. We're working

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Speaker 3: on it.

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Speaker 1: We're working let's like the number looking to What are

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Speaker 1: you thinking about?

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Speaker 2: I mean, my friends, my friends. I've never been to Lambo.

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Speaker 3: My friends really really want to go to Lambo. But

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Speaker 3: I have a stipulation. I really only want to go

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Speaker 3: weeks like one through four. I was like, after that,

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Speaker 3: I'm just not listening. I went to Indiana. I don't

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Speaker 3: want to sit there and like bundle up in the

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Speaker 3: freezing cold. So I want to see Lambeau title Town

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Speaker 3: it's an amazing atmosphere, but I would like, you know,

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Speaker 3: a little bit cold weather not you know, and if

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Speaker 3: that makes me, you know whatever, you want to call

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Speaker 3: me that.

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Speaker 2: It is what it is. I'll take the punishment for it.

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Speaker 3: But I want to go to I've been to a

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Speaker 3: Vegas game, but we haven't been to a Vegas game

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Speaker 3: as a group.

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Speaker 2: But I think they're going to save that till they're

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Speaker 2: a little bit better.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, though, I feel like at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, when you start thinking about it, the

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Speaker 1: domes stadiums are like the ones you end up wanting

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Speaker 1: to go to more. But I would say Lambo is

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Speaker 1: definitely at the top of my list, and I want Chicago.

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Speaker 1: I think would be interesting too.

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Speaker 2: I haven't done that either.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that seems like a that would probably especially this year.

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Speaker 1: It seems like a funnel.

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Speaker 2: We have done some domes out New Orleans, Arizona.

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Speaker 1: There's been a few in there, but okay, i've Arizona

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Speaker 1: at all, Like, I don't know, it was so mid

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Speaker 1: to me, Like, I can't believe so many super have

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Speaker 1: been hosted there.

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Speaker 3: To be fair, we went to Jacksonville, so we've seen

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Speaker 3: that side of it. But Arizona was a little bit

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Speaker 3: better than that. The only thing I good about Arizona

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Speaker 3: is the spread changed on the last touchdown extra point

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Speaker 3: at the game that was missed, so one of the

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Speaker 3: only things we were remembering. All right, But let's let's

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Speaker 3: go into the schedule. So we're going to go into

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Speaker 3: a bunch of different topics here to kind of just

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Speaker 3: get our you know, what's what's interesting to us, some feedback,

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Speaker 3: some schedule stuff. So we're going to go through just

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Speaker 3: some categories. The first thing is is I just want

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Speaker 3: to hear from you off the bat, when the schedule

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Speaker 3: came out and you were able to kind of digest

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Speaker 3: the entire thing, what is the first thing you noticed

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Speaker 3: or kind of looked for in your process.

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Speaker 1: I just kind of look it over and the first

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Speaker 1: thing that jumped out of me was the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 1: And you know how they have these presumptive Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: kind of rematches and just rematches in general going on there.

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Speaker 1: I feel like the Steelers are always the interesting one

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Speaker 1: because you know, everybody knows about that that tal and

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Speaker 1: streak and how long he's been going with you know,

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Speaker 1: not not having to losing season, so I just think

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Speaker 1: it's so interesting with Roger's not signed yet, but they

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Speaker 1: already got that, you know, Jets Steelers Week one matchup

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Speaker 1: set up, and I don't know if that line is

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Speaker 1: even correct. I feel like the Steelers shouldn't be such

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Speaker 1: large favorites. We'll talk about that. So, yeah, the Steelers

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Speaker 1: in general usually the first team I got just because

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Speaker 1: of that that Tomlin Street, but especially this year, I

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Speaker 1: thought it was pretty interesting.

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Speaker 3: I mean, from a Steelers schedule, you're making the assumption

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Speaker 3: based off of some of the primetime games and the

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Speaker 3: Jets that the NFL is taking a gamble or maybe

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Speaker 3: they know something that we don't that he's going to

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Speaker 3: be there, because I couldn't see Rudolph in some of

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Speaker 3: those spots.

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Speaker 2: So that's definitely interesting.

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Speaker 3: Interesting nonetheless, I guess from my point of view, and

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Speaker 3: it's been you know, kind of put everywhere, but the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs primetime schedule, Like when you just look across the

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Speaker 3: board and you know, a lot of these schedules are

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Speaker 3: color coded.

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Speaker 2: Kansas City's is very colorful.

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Speaker 3: In the first eight or nine weeks, I mean, there

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Speaker 3: is a lot of different places and things that they

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Speaker 3: have to go through. I think was it five primetime

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Speaker 3: games first Ay weeks, first time in NFL history the

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Speaker 3: teams had to kind of go through that. To me,

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Speaker 3: the Vikings International back to back is just kind of

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Speaker 3: intriguing and interesting. I think it could be an advantage.

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Speaker 3: I believe they get the Browns on that second leg

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Speaker 3: of the back to back.

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Speaker 2: One interesting note the Falcons. They're at home again.

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Speaker 3: I believe it's five or six straight years now they've

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Speaker 3: played at home in Week one. Hasn't been great, but nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: it's interesting that Atlanta kind of sits in that spot

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Speaker 3: year to year. A lot of people have mentioned this,

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Speaker 3: but Dallas's schedule in the second half really really difficult,

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Speaker 3: especially after the bye.

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Speaker 2: It's actually pretty crazy.

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Speaker 3: It's at Vegas, which you know is what it is,

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Speaker 3: but Philly case, Detroit, Minnesota Chargers in Washington is a brutal,

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Speaker 3: brutal gauntlet kind of in a row. Plus, Dallas has

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Speaker 3: four Thursday night football games this season, which would be

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Speaker 3: the first time the team's had to do that in history,

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Speaker 3: which is I guess an advantage of a disadvantage based

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Speaker 3: off the rest after the games for.

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Speaker 1: The NFL, though, I mean, they talk about the cawwoy.

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Speaker 1: The Cowboys have what the largest fan base in the league,

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Speaker 1: so I think that's a smart move. Maybe al Michael's

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Speaker 1: is back this year, right for for ten, so I

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Speaker 1: think so yeah, so you know, maybe he'll stay awake

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Speaker 1: this time this year. I know he really hates those

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Speaker 1: those bad schedules. But yeah, that's that's the win that

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Speaker 1: that's definitely when. But I was gonna actually mention one

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Speaker 1: one other one, Uh the Cleveland Browns. They could be

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Speaker 1: playing their Super Bowl in week one. I mean, their

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Speaker 1: schedule is really tough, especially uh before the before the

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Speaker 1: h the bye, you know, they go Tennessee at Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: Green Bay at Detroit, Minnesota at Pittsburgh, Miami at New England.

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Speaker 1: Coming out of the bye, they have at the Jets,

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Speaker 1: and then a couple of weeks later they have at Vegas,

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Speaker 1: and in between that is Baltimore San Francisco, and then

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Speaker 1: they have a Tennessee game. If those like if the Jets, Raiders,

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Speaker 1: and Titans are all better, which they very well could

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Speaker 1: be with these new coaches, new quarterbacks, I mean, what

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Speaker 1: games do the Browns win outside of their yearly annual

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Speaker 1: upset of the Bengals, which would come in week one.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the only thing I can say is it

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Speaker 3: looks pretty normal from week to week, Like they've got

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Speaker 3: a lot of one o'clock games aside from that Minnesota game. Overseas,

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Speaker 3: it is relatively like we'll play every Sunday at one o'clock,

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Speaker 3: which I feel like, from like a rhythm point of view, say,

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Speaker 3: Gabriel Schador, like some type of quarterback becomes a little

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Speaker 3: bit better than we expected. I do don't mind the

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Speaker 3: schedule overall for them, which is I mean no, no, from

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Speaker 3: like at a point, yeah, just from I get it,

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Speaker 3: but like a week to week and rhythm point of view,

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Speaker 3: which I honestly kind of look at a little bit

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Speaker 3: like if we're going to knock the Chiefs for we're

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Speaker 3: having to run all over the place, and we'll talk

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Speaker 3: about it a little bit, but like the Chargers have

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Speaker 3: the most miles in terms of having to travel throughout

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Speaker 3: the season. Like there's certain good and bad about each

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Speaker 3: of these schedules. But I guess that's one positive thing

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Speaker 3: I could say about Cleveland at this point. But what

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Speaker 3: else you got anything else here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I mean the Chiefs one going back to them is

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Speaker 1: interesting because we saw a couple of years ago. I

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Speaker 1: believe it was the year they played the forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers in the Super Bowl, So two years ago. They

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Speaker 1: had a really brutal schedule. Earlier in the year, I

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Speaker 1: think they set records for like the amount of like

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Speaker 1: the least amount of rest or just the most games.

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Speaker 1: And remember Kelsey was kind of playing limited snaps at times.

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Speaker 1: And I just think that's kind of interesting with you know,

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Speaker 1: House getting older, but at the same time, a lot

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Speaker 1: of the other team is getting younger. You know, like

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Speaker 1: you got Rice and Worthy expected to play big roles.

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Speaker 1: The offensive line is getting younger. So I feel like

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Speaker 1: with the Chiefs, it's almost like they just keep on

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Speaker 1: chugging no matter what. But when when you look at

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Speaker 1: a team like the Chargers, I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 1: they don't have much of a home field, so I

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Speaker 1: don't think they mind the travel in that sense. But

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Speaker 1: I do feel like they were one of the more

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Speaker 1: injured teams, one of the most injured teams last year,

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Speaker 1: and just kind of the body type of the players

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Speaker 1: that they have rostered. Like, for example, they tend to

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Speaker 1: go with some of the bigger body guys. They're not

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Speaker 1: like a pure speed you know, Widdow guy team, Like

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Speaker 1: you look at the receivers like Williams Harris, like those

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Speaker 1: are big guys. Their running backs are big, they use

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Speaker 1: the fullback. So it's like that kind of team I

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Speaker 1: would look out for, you know, the travel to impact

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Speaker 1: them and perhaps get worse, you know, as we go

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Speaker 1: later into the season, because I do think that when

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Speaker 1: it comes to travel, like a lot of this stuff

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Speaker 1: is really hard to quantify, It's probably gonna have zero

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Speaker 1: effect in certain cases, and it's probably gonna have like

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Speaker 1: a negligible with others, and it might have like a

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Speaker 1: kind of an outsize effect in a couple of spots.

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Speaker 1: But I think the Chargers are really at risks based

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Speaker 1: on the kind of players they tend to roster. I'm

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Speaker 1: not surprised that they were one of the more injured

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Speaker 1: teams last year. And then of course, you know they're

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Speaker 1: at one side of the country, so you got to

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Speaker 1: travel sometimes all the way to the other side. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Chargers I would definitely be able to worry about.

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Speaker 3: I was gonna say when you talk about that, I mean,

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Speaker 3: the reason their travel is so intense is because you

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Speaker 3: have trips to Miami, you have a trip to Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: You have a separate trip to Jacksonville. Like it's just

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Speaker 3: you're you're kind of going across the country to play

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Speaker 3: not the best teams in those spots. So we'll see

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Speaker 3: how the impact is. I imagine they'd be favored in

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Speaker 3: a bunch of those games even with the travel. And

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Speaker 3: Herbert's done a good job in his career doing that

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Speaker 3: and he's good on the road, which kind of says

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Speaker 3: a little bit about you.

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Speaker 1: Now, I feel like it's kind of dangerous though, because

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Speaker 1: it is.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 1: If you're not it's like half of the team it's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna get way too lit in Nashville Tennessee, and

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Speaker 1: the other half of the team, whoever doesn't like that

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Speaker 1: kind of party when they go to Miami that has

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Speaker 1: to be is gonna get way too lit. So like

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Speaker 1: that is kind of something for everybody having to go

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Speaker 1: to those two spots.

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Speaker 3: Man, well they can they can rest in Jacksonville when

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Speaker 3: they go on that road trip.

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Speaker 2: So it's fine, all right. So next we're gonna go

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Speaker 2: to I'm just curious.

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Speaker 3: About your methods here a little bit, and I'll talk

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Speaker 3: about some of the stuff that I've done for action.

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Speaker 3: But in terms of strength of schedule. Like there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of methods, there's a lot of metrics. People, you know,

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Speaker 3: go as in depth as I really want to here,

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Speaker 3: but just talk to me about what you do in

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Speaker 3: terms of the schedule.

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Speaker 1: So strength the schedule, it's pretty simple to me. I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at my own team ratings or just the version

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Speaker 1: that corresponds to whatever strength I'm looking for. You know,

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Speaker 1: if I'm looking for, uh, you know, strength of defense,

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Speaker 1: I'll look at my defensive team ratings. Like it's it's

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Speaker 1: the same way we can kind of build these look

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Speaker 1: aheadlines and you know, projected spreads and whatnot. Now, uh,

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Speaker 1: that's that's what you want to be looking at for

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Speaker 1: strength to schedule because like everything else is just going

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Speaker 1: to be it's not predictive, Like you're you need to

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Speaker 1: use the ratings and and data that you intend to

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Speaker 1: be predictive because you know, you could you look at

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Speaker 1: like let's say last year's records or something like that.

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Speaker 1: Last year you look at wind toldals, Well that's influenced

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Speaker 1: by strength to schedule. So it's not a true rate.

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Speaker 1: It's close, but it's not a true rating. So there's

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Speaker 1: like all these other things that are going to have

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Speaker 1: a lot of noise. So I personally use my own

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Speaker 1: ratings or for whatever I'm doing. But for people out there,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're I would recommend kind of yet

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Speaker 1: using whatever would be as close to predictive to the

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Speaker 1: to whatever you're trying to find the strength for as possible.

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Speaker 1: So whether it be you know, someone else's team ratings

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Speaker 1: or or you know, whatever it is for that specific metric,

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Speaker 1: I think that's how you do it. I think that

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of noise, uh, you know, and all

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Speaker 1: the other methods.

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Speaker 3: But what about you, Yeah, I mean, I just think

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Speaker 3: there's really two sides of it here. There's are you

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Speaker 3: trying to do something predictive where you're basically trying to

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Speaker 3: set lines, trying edges, like trying to make bets and

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Speaker 3: things of that nature. And I think doing it unit

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Speaker 3: by unit is the way that I handle it. But

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Speaker 3: initially I do start with the wind totals, the futures,

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Speaker 3: you know, things of that nature, which is not like

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Speaker 3: you said, it's not predictive because it's really coming from

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Speaker 3: the market, which is already baking in a lot of

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Speaker 3: these things. It's just more predictive.

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Speaker 2: Than being able to do like twenty twenty four win.

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Speaker 3: Percentage like that that actually has no value in things

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Speaker 3: of that nature. But I just think there's you know,

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Speaker 3: you can do it by rest, you can do it

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Speaker 3: by season segments, which I think is interesting, like last

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Speaker 3: four games, first four games, in terms of breaking down

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Speaker 3: some of that information. But I think there's two sides

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Speaker 3: to it. There's trying to get just an accurate strength

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Speaker 3: to schedule, and then there's actually trying to create something

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Speaker 3: that's a little predictive. So I think there's a little

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Speaker 3: two sides of being able to create content for the

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Speaker 3: strength of schedule. But nonetheless, I think it's fascinating how

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Speaker 3: we've kind of developed a little bit because ten years ago,

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Speaker 3: most people were just blindly looking at last year records

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Speaker 3: and kind of accepting that information, and we've very much

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Speaker 3: moved on from that, which is kind of exciting. And

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Speaker 3: that kind of why I kind of like the schedule

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Speaker 3: release a little bit more than maybe some people, is

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Speaker 3: I like looking at some of these week to week things,

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Speaker 3: and at this point we can also set up bet

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Speaker 3: labs and start getting some of these triggers out there.

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Speaker 3: So it's a fun time of year in May, but

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Speaker 3: that's at least the way I look at it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely think so strength the schedule is gonna be,

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Speaker 1: especially now that the schedule is released, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: kind of a buzzword. And I do think at times

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Speaker 1: it's kind of like over rated. And what I mean

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Speaker 1: by that is I agree with you. I think there

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Speaker 1: are you kind of gotta go team by team, week

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Speaker 1: by week, spot by spot, and there there's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a few spots that you kind of see that you

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Speaker 1: can kind of circle, or that you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe there's gonna be like, like we know Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: has all these different trends, so maybe he's gonna be

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Speaker 1: like on the at home as an underdog after a

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Speaker 1: tough road game or something, and you kind of there's

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Speaker 1: spots you could kind of circle and anticipation. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: necessarily act on them yet. But I think the reason

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Speaker 1: that a lot of times people kind of overstate strength

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Speaker 1: to schedule, especially at this time of year, is because

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Speaker 1: number one, we know that the way predictively, the way

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Speaker 1: NFL games and game outcomes work is the quarterback has

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Speaker 1: an outside impact, right, So a lot of strength to

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Speaker 1: schedule is kind of it's it kind of cancels itself out.

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Speaker 1: You don't know who's going to be healthy, who's going

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Speaker 1: to be out, who's going to make a big jump,

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Speaker 1: who's going to struggle, like all these things that you

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Speaker 1: would you know, it kind of gets caught up in

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Speaker 1: your team rating. But like, looking at it this far

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Speaker 1: out is not going to be that beneficial. So when

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at strength to schedule, I'm generally kind of

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Speaker 1: looking at it mostly from you know, like a quarterback perspective,

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Speaker 1: and and and a team rating perspective, you know, sense

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Speaker 1: like offense defense, which is the quarterback is a large

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Speaker 1: part of the offense, and and and it's and and

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Speaker 1: kind of looking at it like that, like if if

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Speaker 1: if a team has to face a murderer's row of quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: that's or or or the opposite. That's what I'm really

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Speaker 1: kind of raising my eyebrows. Or if something related to

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Speaker 1: that travel wise. Uh, that's really I think the key

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Speaker 1: and the most actionable information, especially at this time of year,

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Speaker 1: because again, you know, we don't know the fifty three

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Speaker 1: man rosters, we don't know the injuries, we don't there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of things we don't know, So like you

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Speaker 1: could get a little too granuar sometimes with that strength

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Speaker 1: of schedule incorporating it this early, But I do think

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Speaker 1: it's worth looking at it from the quarterback perspective.

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Speaker 2: I like that. And it's also I mean, the way

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Speaker 2: I look at it, it's weighted.

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Speaker 3: Early season, right, like you're just more you know, you're

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Speaker 3: more gonna know what's gonna happen first four weeks, first

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Speaker 3: nine weeks than like all the injuries and the garbage

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Speaker 3: that happened second half. So I tend to try to

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Speaker 3: look at some of those early spots and you know, I,

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Speaker 3: at least when trying to do a full season, wait

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Speaker 3: the first half more.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Oh, that's very hard, Like anytime you're doing projections

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Speaker 1: and when you want to incorporate something like that, you're

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Speaker 1: you're kind of waiting towards like the more current stuff,

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Speaker 1: like when you're projecting out, especially in the NFL, where

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Speaker 1: it's like at interval periods like one week one week,

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Speaker 1: and it's like a week could influence the next week too.

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Speaker 1: So that's just kind of how you have to do it.

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Speaker 1: And there's all types of you know, complicated four moves

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Speaker 1: we can talk about, but we don't need to We don't.

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Speaker 3: Need to do that. Let's keep moving not today, all right,

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Speaker 3: So let's talk about what a lot of people are

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Speaker 3: probably interested right now, which is some of these betting lines,

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Speaker 3: especially for Week one. So I'm gonna let you start here.

385
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Speaker 3: But obviously lines are moving. Week one lines are out there,

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Speaker 3: totals are out there. So what has caught your eye, uh,

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Speaker 3: in these initial spreads and games?

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know me, I'm a I'm an NFL teach,

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Speaker 1: and so a lot a lot has caught my eye.

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Speaker 1: So I'll start with the first, uh first game, which

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Speaker 1: is the Cowboys and the Eagles. That that one. I

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Speaker 1: just think the Eagles are going to be a little

393
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Speaker 1: bit underrated offensively because you have all the talk of

394
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Speaker 1: the the touch push potentially getting banned, and I know

395
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,480
Speaker 1: Goddard is on the block and whatnot, But if you

396
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Speaker 1: look at the Eagles, I think the way it's early yet,

397
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Speaker 1: so I don't recommend locking in anything crazy, but I

398
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Speaker 1: do think if you're kind of looking for an edge

399
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 1: on this game, I think the Eagles offense is a

400
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 1: little bit underrated, especially on some of their team total altlines.

401
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 1: Like if you create parways and you like to anchor

402
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,880
Speaker 1: it with a high likelihood one that's that's a little

403
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 1: juiced up, and then and then go with some long

404
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 1: shot longer shots attached to that. I do think like

405
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 1: if you look back with Jayalen Hurts as the starter,

406
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Speaker 1: the Eagles have scored at least twenty one points in

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Speaker 1: twenty seven of their past twenty nine home games. They

408
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 1: scored more than twenty one in all but four of

409
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Speaker 1: those last twenty nine, So you're talking about like eighty

410
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 1: five ninety percent likelihoods, and if you will get their

411
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 1: team totals, they're priced a lot lower than that for

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Speaker 1: like over twenty and a half, So like over twenty

413
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Speaker 1: and a half, that's pretty much been a lock at

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Speaker 1: home for them. In Jalen hurt starts over twenty two

415
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 1: and a half, and then over twenty three and a half,

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Speaker 1: all of those the Eagles have hit those pretty much

417
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: every game or ninety percent of the time, and they're

418
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Speaker 1: not priced like it. They're priced like about ten to

419
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,439
Speaker 1: fifteen percent in five probability below that. So I just

420
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 1: think Dallas with you know, third defensive coordinator in three years. Yes,

421
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: Micas should be healthier, but who knows what iber flus

422
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: this is they went from top five in points allowed

423
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Speaker 1: two years ago to thirty first on defense a season ago.

424
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Speaker 1: You know they're gonna be relying on a lot of

425
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Speaker 1: guys that were hurt or either their played their play

426
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Speaker 1: was up and down. Got some rookies in the mix now,

427
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 1: so just a lot of moving pieces. Early in this year,

428
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Speaker 1: I think is when you would expect their defense to

429
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 1: struggle the most. So I think this Philly offense keeps

430
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Speaker 1: on humming. Jalen Hurts in his four Week one starts

431
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Speaker 1: despite having this is now his fifth coordinator. He's had

432
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Speaker 1: a different coordinator all but one year in the league,

433
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Speaker 1: so pretty much every offseason except one where Stiking came

434
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Speaker 1: back and Jalen Hurts in Week one, no ill effects.

435
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 1: He's averaging thirty one points per game in Week one starts,

436
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 1: never fewer than twenty five, and just always consistent, always

437
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: the overstreing one. So I just think this Eagles team,

438
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 1: one way or another, they're gonna score points. Like I

439
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,479
Speaker 1: don't know, I still got questions about the Dallas offense,

440
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,959
Speaker 1: so I'm not touching the full game total yet, but

441
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 1: I've definitely kind of created some things just with the

442
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 1: with the different Eagles team totals because I do think

443
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 1: they're under price. So that that's just that's just one game,

444
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: So I feel like that that's I got more. But

445
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,159
Speaker 1: I want to hear from you. What do you what

446
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 1: do you think about the Eagles and what kind of

447
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 1: quote you're at all?

448
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 3: Right, So I would, I mean, I agree with you.

449
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 3: I think the focus at least on mine was looking

450
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:21,880
Speaker 3: at the over in that game, so I think we

451
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 3: were on the same kind of wavelength in that sense.

452
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 3: I do also see Dallas kind of falling behind in

453
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 3: the game and potentially putting up points as well, so

454
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 3: that's why I was kind of looking at the over.

455
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 3: I'm actually be interested just to see what that game,

456
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,160
Speaker 3: that first game of the year is kind of done

457
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: from an over under perspective. Usually the champ ends up

458
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 3: doing pretty decently winning covering going back in history, so

459
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: I would be curious there at least from like a

460
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 3: spot point of view. And so everyone realizes this if

461
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: you've been betting in the NFL a bunch of years,

462
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 3: that like Week one is just the most different market

463
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,959
Speaker 3: than we really see a week to week the entire season,

464
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 3: just because it moves from May to September.

465
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 2: I mean, you have the most time for it to adjust.

466
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 3: So as much as I want to sit here and

467
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 3: say like I'm interested in the Jets, I'm interested in

468
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: the Browns, but I just I see no reason right

469
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 3: now to kind of invest at those numbers, because Okay,

470
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 3: like I assume Rogers is going to find his way

471
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 3: to Pittsburgh at some point, and when that happens, I

472
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: also see the line going up, so like, I don't

473
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 3: see it necessarily going.

474
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 2: Under three if that happens. So I'm gonna sit back

475
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 2: and probably wait.

476
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 3: And then from Cleveland's point of view, it's like, Okay,

477
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 3: we have no idea who's gonna start a quarterback. The

478
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: line is basically sitting at five and a half, also

479
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 3: with no idea what's gonna happen with Hendrickson on the

480
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 3: other side, there's just lots of pieces that we kind

481
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 3: of don't know, which is why they're just posting stuff

482
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 3: up there. But those are two underdogs that if it

483
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 3: got to six at some point or six and a half,

484
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 3: I'd take a bite in terms of Cleveland.

485
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: But those are two dogs, I mean.

486
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 3: And the other thing like blanketed that people will tell

487
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 3: you and you know, I will have all this information

488
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 3: and articles and stuff leading up to the season, but

489
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 3: like home dogs and division game early in this season

490
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: and especially Week one, tend to have a good value

491
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 3: long term. It's here to year pretty decent right now.

492
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,199
Speaker 3: I mean, other than Cleveland, it's basically all one and

493
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 3: a half. There's like a bunch of there's like four

494
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 3: or five games, but they're all like one and a

495
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 3: half point spreads, and there's just way too much time

496
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 3: where I think it can either flip or it can

497
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 3: go a point or two. So I think right now

498
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: I'm not rushing into things, but like off the back,

499
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is intrig I'm sorry, Atlanta is intriguing to me.

500
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 3: They're getting like a point or two against Baker. Like

501
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 3: I think there's certain situations like i'd like Seattle against

502
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 3: San Francisco. I'm a little down on San Francisco, and

503
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 3: I think other people. I've even heard people from Actions

504
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: say they kind of want to invest in San Francisco this.

505
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 2: Year, but we kind of have to wait and see.

506
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: So I think those are probably the spots right off

507
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: the bat that I circled and looked at.

508
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: But again, four months ahead, we'll say.

509
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: The Bengals in the brown so you talk about mine

510
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 1: food and I did get a six with the Browns,

511
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: but this is the spot to bet Browns. I don't

512
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: mind investing now because all their quarterbacks. It's not like we, yes,

513
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 1: we don't know who's starting. It could be Flacco, it

514
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: could be Picket, it could be Gabriel, could be Shador.

515
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: If you're gonna if you like the Browns, who would

516
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 3: you want to start? Like, who would you want to

517
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 3: see there? Just out of curiosity?

518
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: Gabriel?

519
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: Really that's amazing.

520
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, my.

521
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: Reasoning would be, we know what Flacco is, he's old.

522
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: We know what Picket is, he sucks. Yeah, and clearly

523
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: there's the reason Shador fell. So the guy they believe

524
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: in the most is Gabriel. If Gabriel beats out those

525
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: three other guys, that means that he is actually elevating

526
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 1: his play to that upside point which caused them to

527
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: believe in him in the first place, which would mean,

528
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 1: you know, I'm getting some extra value because right now

529
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: I'm just factoring in four equally sucky quarterbacks essentially, you

530
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 1: know what I mean. So, but that's the whole thing.

531
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: There's no real a lot of times or not a

532
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:01,199
Speaker 1: lot of times. But in many cases, because many teams

533
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: have kind of their franchise quarterback and then does a

534
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 1: drop off, it can be risky. Even though quarterback injuries

535
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: aren't that common, but there's not really much risk of

536
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: a drop off at the quarterback position with Cleveland. So

537
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 1: I feel like it's all upside and I just feel

538
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 1: like the line is out of whack. Now we already

539
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,360
Speaker 1: know about you kind of alluded to just in general

540
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 1: Week one Divisional Dogs road Home whatever way undervalued about

541
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: sixty actually above sixty percent, and then before you even

542
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: start factoring in other types of spots. But Joe Burrow

543
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 1: averages just five point three yards per attempt in Cleveland

544
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 1: in his career. This Bengal team is already starting to

545
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: implode with this Hendrickson situation. Joe Burrow one game as

546
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: he won in the first two weeks of the season.

547
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: In his career, He's one and nine straight up three

548
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: and seven again to spread. So the reason I'm investing

549
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 1: now and yeah, I'll invest again when we have more certainty,

550
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: but is because as people start to catch on to this,

551
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: the line actually could move in the opposite direction if

552
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 1: there's any positive buzz about any Cleveland quarterback, the line

553
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: could start to move in the opposite direction again, So

554
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: I feel like getting it. You know, five and a

555
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: half six right now is way inflated, already considering the spot,

556
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: So I want some of that now, because, like you mentioned,

557
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: the market is going to move for four months, and

558
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 1: that's not always just driven by you know, news and

559
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: goings on on the field or with the team. Sometimes

560
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: it can be something like, you know, the public starts

561
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: to get privy to certain information, or you know, there's

562
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: just kind of like a herd effect or something like that.

563
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: So I do think it is where it's kind of

564
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: investing in that spot because I don't really see an

565
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: downside to it. And then the Jets to a lesser degree,

566
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: I just think that line would be wrong even if

567
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: Rogers was already confirmed.

568
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 3: But true to assume that if Rogers comes in, it's

569
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 3: gonna go out.

570
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: No, I do, and then I'll investigate. But my whole

571
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 1: thing is I'm just looking to get value. If I

572
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: can get value twice or three times over the course

573
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: of the offseason, fine, But I already show value even

574
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 1: if you know, factoring in Rogers with this line. So

575
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 1: for example, and I'm not saying I'm not saying Field

576
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: is the better quarterback, but what I am saying is

577
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: over the last three years, so since twenty twenty two,

578
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: which was, you know, after Field's rookie year in twenty

579
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 1: twenty one, after Rogers's last MVP in twenty twenty one,

580
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:58,479
Speaker 1: they put up pretty much identical numbers in almost every metric.

581
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: Your Fields has the better QBR, Fields has the better

582
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: yards per attempt, Rogers has a slightly better winning percentage,

583
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 1: Rogers has the slightly better adjusted net. Everything is kind

584
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: of neck and neck, and then Fields is younger and

585
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: a better runner, and he's probably playing behind the best

586
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: offensive line he's had, Rogers probably the best defense he's had.

587
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: So it's like there's not like this big gap between

588
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,719
Speaker 1: the two quarterbacks. And you know, Fields, by many metrics,

589
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 1: outplayed Rogers last year, and we don't we just don't

590
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: know what the cliff is gonna be for a quarterback

591
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: at Rogers age. Fields actually still have upside. You know,

592
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: I'm not saying I expect him to be drastically different

593
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: than the guy we've seen in the last few years.

594
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: I'm just saying there is upside just based on his

595
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 1: his age compared to Rogers, w there's really none. So

596
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: again this is just another spot where I just see

597
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: value and I don't see any doubtside or like at

598
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: this current number. So yeah, I'm hoping it goes up

599
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: more Rodgers gets confirmed and I'll just bet it again.

600
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: But I already think the line is way out of whack.

601
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: And another one I think is out of whack is

602
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: the Giants and kind of a similar situation. So they're

603
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 1: plus seven plus seven and a half at some spots

604
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: at the Commanders. So the Giants are another team where

605
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: no real quarterback downside, Like if Dart ends up winning

606
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: the job, that means he's just exceeding expectations. Jamis Winston, Uh,

607
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: pretty terrible. But the one spot he has been profitable

608
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: as as a dog of you know, more than a

609
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: field goal, has a big dog where those those pick

610
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: sixes don't hurt you as much. And uh, and if

611
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: it's Russell Wilson, you know he's competent at least so

612
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: much more competent than so. Their entire quarterback GEP chart

613
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: one two three is better than last year. Their defense

614
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: has a chance to be borderline e lead. I think

615
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: I think both the Giants and the Commanders better on

616
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: paper personnel wise, roster wise than last year. But the

617
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: Giants have so much more room to go up, and

618
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: they had more draft picks, more free agents, uh, and

619
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: just so much further to go up. And last year

620
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: the Giants played the Commanders very close in both divisional batts.

621
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 1: And that's always been the case. It's it's in division

622
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: So if you look at just like I said, divisional trends,

623
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: you look at divisional dogs, and you add a filter

624
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: for teams that haven't that didn't make the playoffs the

625
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: year before, just because like that's one of those things

626
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: the public, you know, just kind of out of side,

627
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: out of mind. We're talking about sixty nine percent on

628
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: the road, seventy one percent. This is a two decade

629
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 1: long sample. This is going back to two thousand and five.

630
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: It just it just never ceases because you only get

631
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: these Week one matchups once a year. So yeah, people

632
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 1: like you and I will talk about this, and and

633
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: still it's just the trend never kind of corrects to

634
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: the point where the books actually have to start using

635
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: these numbers, and these trends really get a chance to reverse,

636
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: because then there's gonna be all this influx of casual

637
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: money ahead of Week one, and you know, whatever might

638
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: be kind of done in the off season just kind

639
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: of reverted. So I think the Giants are just a

640
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: great value right now because they're gonna be I think

641
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 1: they can be a lot more competent. They got some continuity,

642
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: but at the places they need continuity, and then the

643
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: places they were terrible at they got better at. So

644
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: I really don't see much downside at at a touchdown

645
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: to betting on them in the division. And remember they're

646
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: historically terrible at home and much much much better when

647
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: they go on the road. So just yeah, a lot

648
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 1: of reasons about the Giants. I think, you know, we

649
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: talk about double digit underdogs and how we don't really

650
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: double digitspre and how we really don't see any uh

651
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 1: this far out. I think they got spread over. Six

652
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: is the new like double digits, and you know, if

653
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: you're talking about look aheadlines. So yeah, I'm looking at

654
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: that Giants line, and I got to dig deeper into

655
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 1: the the uh that that the Titans are. Yeah, the

656
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: Titans are seven and a half point underdogs as well, right, Yeah,

657
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: I gotta look I gotta look at that because that

658
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: that that that might be too much too But definitely

659
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: I think the Giants, you know, twenty seven two and

660
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen with no kicker, were there two games against Washington.

661
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: Nine wins separated those two teams last year and they

662
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: still played them within five in both games.

663
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, at this point, Tennessee and so Denver is the

664
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 3: largest favorite of any Week one team at the moment.

665
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 3: Minus seven and a half against Tennessee. Uh, Tennessee definitely

666
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 3: intrigued me because I mean what Denver did as a

667
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: favorite last year is just there's there's nuances of an anomaly,

668
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 3: right like at some of that stuff just shouldn't have

669
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 3: been the case. And then one thing on the Giants

670
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 3: is it is weird to say that if you started

671
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 3: to make a list of like some of the more

672
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 3: improved teams and units year to year, that a team

673
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 3: who is like still tied for the worst odds in

674
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 3: the NFL would be one of those teams.

675
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 2: And it's the Giants. I mean, their roster.

676
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 3: Looks better, their defense is better, they have more options

677
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 3: at quarterback, Like I see things that are positives there.

678
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 3: The other one I would see positives because they had

679
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: been to me, an incredible offseason would be New England.

680
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 3: So they were kind of intriguing to me at under

681
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 3: three against the Raiders, Like I'm not a huge fan

682
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 3: of everything the Raiders did aside from genty, Like overall,

683
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 3: in terms of improvement, I see them being relatively similar,

684
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: even with Gino back there. So I was ten. I

685
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 3: was tempted, let's call it to look at New England

686
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 3: under a field goal?

687
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: Is there any did you have any thought on that

688
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: game at all?

689
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: Yeah? So this is this is New England is really

690
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: interesting one for me because I already I bet their

691
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: win total. It was a first win total, I think

692
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: the only wind total I bet so far. I bet

693
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: it back in like before the draft even I think

694
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: we might have spoke about it maybe in like February

695
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: or March, and just like yeah, right after free agency,

696
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: I was like, New England's gonna be a lot better.

697
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: They're probably already better than the other two teams in

698
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: that vision, so like New England, but I think now

699
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 1: we're starting to get to a point where they're they

700
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 1: they're becoming overvalued. So I when I initially saw the

701
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: opening week one line or the look aheads after the

702
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 1: schedule drop, I actually saw some three and a half

703
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: for the Raiders, and I was actually thinking about betting

704
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: on the Raiders because you're still talking about for New England, Like, yes,

705
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: we love what they did in the offseason. Long term,

706
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 1: we think Drake May is gonna be great. We love

707
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: Rabel McDaniel's back. So a lot of things to like

708
00:34:55,200 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 1: about New England, but you're talking about week one. You're

709
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: still this is gonna be the least experience that Drake

710
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: May has with what's probably gonna be an entirely new

711
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: receiving corps because you're probably gonna have Digs and and

712
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: and Williams and and maybe one of the guys that

713
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 1: was their last year as the top three. And you know,

714
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 1: we're gonna have some new guys on the line, new coach,

715
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: new uh, you know, new coaches all around. You're gonna

716
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: have Stefan Diggs, you know, coming off an injury. It's

717
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 1: gonna be the least healthy is an important player for them. Uh,

718
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: gonna be the first game for Henderson, who's gonna be

719
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: very involved. So just a lot of things where the

720
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: win wind might not necessarily be at it at its

721
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 1: best right off the bat. Meanwhile, when you look at

722
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 1: the Raiders, you have Pete Carroll, yes new, but again

723
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: we're just looking for value. I think they might be

724
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: able to undervalue in the sense that I don't know

725
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 1: if the ceiling is massive, especially in that where I

726
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: think they're still the worst team. But I think their

727
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: floor is probably a little bit higher than people think,

728
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 1: And they obviously are kind of aiming for a higher

729
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,760
Speaker 1: floor because there's no other reason to kind of higher

730
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: like seventies what something year old Pete Carroll and and

731
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: and then you know, bid thirties Geno Smith. When you

732
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 1: were a bad team last year, you would think you

733
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 1: would just kind of go into like more of a

734
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: full on tank. And I feel like the Raiders are

735
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: trying to be be competitive. So I think the Raiders

736
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: are actually going to end up being the saided that

737
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: if I bet, if I end up betting aside for

738
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 1: that game, just based on the market, like I don't,

739
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not really interested in the Patriots at

740
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 1: two and a half or three, but I would be

741
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,919
Speaker 1: interested in the Raiders over a field goal.

742
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the way I would play it is

743
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 3: and this is you know, it's good to have different opinions.

744
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: Here is New England at two and a half, which

745
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 3: I see right now at a flat one ten. I'm

746
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 3: gonna get Vegas at three and a half by the

747
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 3: time kickoff happens. Like there's going to be a lot

748
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 3: of love on New England as we run up. So,

749
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 3: I mean, from just a numbers play, if you're asking

750
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,240
Speaker 3: me to start putting in some prices, I just don't

751
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 3: see it closing under that if everything kind of goes.

752
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: Its way the next four months.

753
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 3: So in terms of like trying to predict line value,

754
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: that was a little bit what I was doing. Especially

755
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: You're right, we're seeing three and a half some even

756
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 3: three is becoming a kind of steady in the market.

757
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 3: Anything else to you on the board here before we

758
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 3: kind of roll on.

759
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: Let's see so talk how was you? Oh the so

760
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 1: the Jaguars that's another one I want to talk about.

761
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are And this kind of also goes toward

762
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: if you are looking to kind of make some season bets.

763
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 1: So when you kind of the way you kind of

764
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 1: look at investing in the NFL, now, whether you're straight

765
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: up better or you're kind of also in fantasy or

766
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: things like that, is I think one of the because

767
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 1: there's just so many options and so many different type

768
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: of games and so many markets available, I think one

769
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: of the things that you have to start doing a

770
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 1: kind of tear down a little bit. It's not like you,

771
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: you know, back in the day, you only have spreads

772
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,479
Speaker 1: and totals and maybe to win totals in some Super Bowl.

773
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 1: Now you there's so much. We already have like full

774
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 1: Week one game lines and all these different things. So

775
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: you kind of got to look at the outliers, right,

776
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: You got to kind of look for the outliers and

777
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 1: the and the situations that could be the most different

778
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 1: from expectation. And I think the Jacksonville Jaguars are probably

779
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 1: in the driver's seat as far as being able to

780
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: be profitable in a multitude of ways for people that

781
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 1: back them, because if you look at the situations. I'll

782
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: just talk about it in the context of Week one,

783
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 1: but you can kind of see how it could apply

784
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 1: forward as well. So we won last season. William Cohen,

785
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 1: who's not a coach. Last season, he takes over as

786
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: for a new team as the offensive coordinator on a

787
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: bucks An offense that's averaged twenty and a half points

788
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 1: per game, a quarterback, former number one overall pick in

789
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 1: Mayfield who hadn't lived up to the hype, and they

790
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,439
Speaker 1: were going up against the Commanders, which was a team

791
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 1: that had under twenty five quarterback, top two pick and

792
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 1: a defense that ranked dead last year before in points

793
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: this season, William Cohen new team Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence

794
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: in his career sixty starts. I think it is the

795
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 1: Jaguars have averaged twenty and a half points per game.

796
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 1: He's a former number one overall pick. Has it lived

797
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: up to the hype? They're playing the Panthers who finished

798
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 1: dead last in points allowed on defense the year before,

799
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: and Bryce Young is twenty still twenty three, he'll turn

800
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: twenty four before the season, but former number former top

801
00:39:55,120 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 1: two overall pick. And it's like the same situation the

802
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 1: in Week one of the Bucks last year thirty seven

803
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: points as three and a half point favorite, they won

804
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 1: by seventeen. They put up thirty seven. The Jags are

805
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites right now, and I

806
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: just think that they like the Bucks last year, for

807
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: the season, went from twenty and a half points per

808
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 1: game in that first year under Canal. So remember we

809
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,919
Speaker 1: thought Canals was great. We were like, oh man, he's

810
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: gonna be great for Bryce Young and he's a quarterback whisper,

811
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 1: and oh man, look how good Baker? Like, what how

812
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 1: much improvement Baker Mayfield Show team averaged twenty and a

813
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 1: half points per game on offense last year with Liam Cohen,

814
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: they go from twenty and a half to twenty nine

815
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 1: and a half. That is just a massive increase. State

816
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 1: they were the only team that like hit these like

817
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 1: five criteria in terms of the red zone and third

818
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: down with the points scored, It's like they were a

819
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 1: historically good offense that then went and uh you know,

820
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 1: went out and drafted us another weapon in Abuca this year.

821
00:40:55,320 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: But as far as Cohen, remember they were trying to

822
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 1: keep the old GM in Jacksonville balky, and then they

823
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,720
Speaker 1: have a whole weird thing with Kohane and they decided

824
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: to just say, heyy give him the keys. He he

825
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: didn't want a Balky, he wanted his guy. They came

826
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 1: in pretty much turned over the like, you know, turn

827
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: the roster upside down at almost every depth art position

828
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 1: on offense. And I just think that there's a non

829
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 1: zero chance that you could have a similar jump. Now,

830
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: you can't always apply these things apple stabs. I mean,

831
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: you know, we tried to do that with Canalis, you know,

832
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 1: with Young last year, and it didn't really stan out.

833
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: I mean, Young didn't get a lot better, but it

834
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 1: took you know, half a season for it. So it

835
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 1: doesn't always go as expected. But when you just look

836
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 1: at right, it took a bench. But when you just

837
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 1: look at the situation, the potential upside and the pieces

838
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 1: that are in place compared to where the market is

839
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 1: valuing Jacksonville, and it's surprising because you like, Jacksvill is

840
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 1: getting hyped obviously because but it's more I think, centered

841
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 1: around Hunter rather than the team itself. But this is

842
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 1: a team that averaged under twenty points per game overall

843
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: last year because remember Mac Jones had a bunch of starts.

844
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 1: They were terrible. This team, like their ceiling is something

845
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 1: in that Tampa Bay realm. Maybe it's not twenty nine

846
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: and a half, but you know they could get to

847
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 1: like twenty seven. Lawrence could finally break out, Hunter and

848
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 1: and Thomas could be an all pro combination at wide receiver.

849
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,320
Speaker 1: The guy tooting that running back has a lot of

850
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,320
Speaker 1: upside as a rookie, and then Painsby was a monster

851
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 1: at times. You know, like they have a lot of

852
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 1: guys at the skill positions they got. You know, the

853
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: line could be decent, and then you know the defense,

854
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,240
Speaker 1: you know is the new regime, so you know defense

855
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: could be improved as well. Who knows, But I just

856
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: think this Jacksonville team, compared to market expectation, compared to

857
00:42:56,160 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: median expectation, is being severely underlooked, like overlooked. Excuse me.

858
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: I think a lot of focuses on Hunter, but it's

859
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: not just Hunter, Like Hunter could have a regular to

860
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 1: poor season and that this team could still be just massive,

861
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: massively exceed the expectations. So I just think Jacksonville is

862
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: a team that I want to invest in their team

863
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: total for Week one because they're going up against a

864
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: Panthers D that worst in the league last year in

865
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: points allowed. I just don't think that they're they're gonna be,

866
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 1: especially in League one, that much better. Jacksonville, I think

867
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: has a chance to be that much better. We've seen

868
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: that in Colnes last stop and uh, and then you know,

869
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 1: for the season, I just think Jacksonville has that simp,

870
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: that same kind of upside where I just think they

871
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 1: could just smash everything people expected them. And Terlt Lawrence,

872
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: I mean he's the most like he's the least noticeable,

873
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: like number one quarterback. I feel like that that we

874
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 1: have right now. He just he's just not really he

875
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: hasn't really exerted his will or post his will on

876
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,959
Speaker 1: the NFL on the field. But I just think things

877
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 1: could be so different for this team this year. So

878
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: that's the team I'll really watch.

879
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 2: I tend to agree.

880
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Lawrence has kind of just entered

881
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 3: the last chance corral as well, like he has like

882
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 3: a little bit of a window here to show us

883
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 3: who he is, especially getting Liam Cohen there. I will

884
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 3: say this, So Jacksonville sitting in two and a half,

885
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 3: it's going to three.

886
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 2: I even see it going to three and a half.

887
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 2: To me, it's very similar to.

888
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 3: The New England situation, Like I would buy Jacksonville now,

889
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 3: not forget everything that you just laid out simply as

890
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 3: a line play, because I do believe the hype will

891
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 3: move that line more than you know.

892
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 2: Caroline is not getting the hype.

893
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 3: We were talking about Carolina last year after everything we

894
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 3: saw in them, I don't think anyone's gonna look at

895
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 3: them or touch them until we see kind of a

896
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: different result, even based off of how they finished.

897
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:51,760
Speaker 2: And the only other.

898
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 3: Thing with Jacksonville after this home game against Carolina, which

899
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 3: they really do need to get if they want to

900
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 3: start on the right track, their schedule after that is brutal.

901
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 3: At Cincinnati, They've got Houston, San Francisco, Kansas City, Seattle, and.

902
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 2: The Rams and then they get a bye.

903
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 3: Like that is, none of those teams are gimmes after Carolina,

904
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 3: So losing Week one, I honestly could crash their season.

905
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 2: So to me, it's well, I go.

906
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 1: I have a counterpoint to that.

907
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, so.

908
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 1: The teams you mentioned generally, what is the strength of

909
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 1: each of those.

910
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: Teams their off Yeah?

911
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: Yes, right, So I think that for games, right, when

912
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,720
Speaker 1: I talk about investing in Jacksonville, it's not just like, again,

913
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: we can go well beyond just win totals or things

914
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: like that. So I just think investing in a Jacksonville

915
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 1: offensive improvement makes a lot of sense, and that opening

916
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: schedule kind of lends itself to it. But what I

917
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: will say is that's that's also a positive for their

918
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: win total, because I think as it stands now, if

919
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is going to make a jump, I think it's

920
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: it's gonna start with their offense. Like I do think

921
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: their defense has a lot of improvement to make as well,

922
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: and I think they've kind of underachieved most of the

923
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 1: time over in Lawrence's career at least. But look at

924
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay last year, that team they almost ended up

925
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 1: as like a two or three, see where they finished

926
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 1: with the four seed because if they wanted.

927
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 2: To finish it.

928
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 1: So yeah, Jacksonville in a similarly kind of shaky division, Uh,

929
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 1: they could win a lot of those games on pure offense,

930
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 1: like if they want to get in those kind of shootouts, right,

931
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 1: So I think, yes, of course Jacksonville schedule is going

932
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 1: to be difficult becuse they were one of the worst

933
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,320
Speaker 1: teams in the league last year, so like their schedules

934
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: aren't going to look difficult to us now. But that's

935
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 1: my whole point, that Jacksonville has so much room to

936
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 1: grow and an actual pass that you know, there's a

937
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: precedent that that we've seen and given the pieces that

938
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 1: are in place, so that I just think they're very

939
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 1: intriguing investment to make in a lot of different ways.

940
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 2: Buying the Jacksonville Jaguars.

941
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 1: All right, yeah, sounds alright, but.

942
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 2: Hit it up, Chris. Talk about a little Underdog here.

943
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can go yard all baseball season long

944
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,319
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945
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946
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947
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949
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952
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953
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954
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968
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971
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972
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975
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976
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977
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:39,480
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978
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 2: Let's just talk about this for a second.

979
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: We're going to go into something that I think is interesting,

980
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 3: which is kind of the early season schedule and just

981
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 3: some things that stand out, So I mean, just based

982
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 3: off of you know what we've seen so far. The

983
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,319
Speaker 3: two things that I saw were and Raiders. We're going

984
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 3: to talk again. But in Week one, they've got Raiders

985
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 3: at Patriots, and then Week two the Raiders are at

986
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 3: home against the Chargers on Monday Night football. The Chargers

987
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 3: are off the Brazil game, so basically, you know, take

988
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 3: that as a negative or a positive, but it is

989
00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 3: extra rest having to play on that Friday coming to

990
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 3: that next game. Then Week three they're at Washington, so

991
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 3: Washington's off the Thursday night football game before that. And

992
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 3: then week four they played the Bears, but the Bears

993
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 3: ironically have a bye in Week five, so they have

994
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 3: a buye after that Week four game. Basically, why I'm

995
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:29,720
Speaker 3: telling you this is it's just a bad schedule first

996
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 3: four weeks for the Raiders in terms just playing teams

997
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 3: with extra rest early in the year, which could be

998
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:38,279
Speaker 3: a disadvantage. Just interesting that I looked at. And then

999
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 3: the other one I'll give you and I'll get your

1000
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 3: opinion is San Francisco. So if you just look at

1001
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 3: the list of basically plus rest days for each of

1002
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 3: their games, the forty nine Ers are plus five in

1003
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 3: the first nine weeks and they're plus five without a

1004
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 3: bye week, which is basically the highest of teams without

1005
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 3: buys in those first nine weeks. And what I thought

1006
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:01,959
Speaker 3: was in thing is week six, seven, and eight. Week

1007
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,439
Speaker 3: six they play Tampa Bay, they're on a plus three

1008
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 3: rest advantage. Week seven they play Atlanta, they're at a

1009
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 3: plus one, and Week eight they play Houston, they're also

1010
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:11,799
Speaker 3: at a plus one. So I kind of found that

1011
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 3: a little intriguing. In terms of San Francisco. Now overall

1012
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 3: I mentioned them before, not exactly super high on them,

1013
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:19,839
Speaker 3: but that is a rest advantage that I'm kind of

1014
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,879
Speaker 3: looking at entering that stretch for them. So we'll see

1015
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 3: how they do leading up. But before we go into

1016
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 3: some miles travel that any thoughts on either of those

1017
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 3: two or some schedule stuff from your end.

1018
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think San Francisco is one of those teams

1019
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 1: when you talk about, okay, they have one of the

1020
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 1: best rest advantages that could be very valuable for a

1021
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:45,359
Speaker 1: team like San Francisco because, I mean, what's been their

1022
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 1: issue pretty much every single season of the Shanahan era injuries.

1023
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: Now some years they overcome it and they're still an

1024
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 1: elite team and they you know, they're knocking on the door,

1025
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 1: and other years they're they're they don't even make the

1026
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:02,920
Speaker 1: playoffs and they're terrible. So that kind of shows the

1027
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 1: you know, the volatility that injuries create. So when you're

1028
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,839
Speaker 1: telling me that, Okay, San Francisco might have a little

1029
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: bit of an edge, that's what I'm kind of talking

1030
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 1: about when I what I would it's earlier, whereas a

1031
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 1: lot of these uh, you know things that that we

1032
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: look at there there's such minuscule edges or you know,

1033
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 1: they just might not they might be negligible when it's

1034
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: all said and done, but there's always gonna be a

1035
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 1: few that have like these outsize impacts and that that

1036
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 1: do kind of stick and play a role. And I

1037
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: think that is a prime candidate, you know, very subtle one,

1038
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 1: but the forty nine ers getting some extra rest and

1039
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 1: being able to rest their guys a little bit more,

1040
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: especially because you know they did, you know, draft some

1041
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 1: guys a little earlier than they may have usually, and

1042
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 1: you know they're getting a little bit younger at some spots,

1043
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: So this could be I know you're down on the Niners,

1044
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: and I get it because I do think in certain

1045
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 1: stas Yeah, I mean, yeah again, it's like people go

1046
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 1: too hard with these easy schedules, especially this time of year. Yeah,

1047
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 1: I mean I get it, but there's a long way

1048
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 1: to go, and especially for a team that's so he's

1049
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:14,439
Speaker 1: so injured, I mean, who knows. So I mean last year,

1050
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:20,759
Speaker 1: last year, perfect example, arguably their best player, Christian McCaffrey.

1051
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: He was the Fantasy RB one like a week before

1052
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:28,880
Speaker 1: the season, and I was like, oh, yeah, he's like questionable,

1053
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, it's like, oh wait,

1054
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 1: actually he's out. He's he's not playing, and then he

1055
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 1: like didn't play played with four games all year or

1056
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 1: something like that. So things could change it in a

1057
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 1: in a heartbeat for a team like San Francisco, but

1058
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 1: there is going to be it. We've seen their upside.

1059
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 1: Injuries are not and so I'm actually looking at it. Yeah,

1060
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 1: median wise, I don't. I think they are a little

1061
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 1: bit overvalued. I think Peer Sall is overvalued in fantasy.

1062
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: I think, are you players like you who are coming

1063
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:04,839
Speaker 1: off like a serious knee injury and might miss part

1064
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 1: of the season. I think they're always overvalued. Jennings, I mean,

1065
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 1: he's he was great last year, but that's he's only

1066
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 1: really done it for one year. Kittle's getting a little older,

1067
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,320
Speaker 1: you know, use checks getting a little older. You know,

1068
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 1: the line defense, got a lot of younger guys you're

1069
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 1: gonna be relying on now, So there's a lot of

1070
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: moving pieces. There's a lot of upside with San Francisco. So, uh,

1071
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: that's the way I kind of look at them. And then,

1072
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 1: like I said, the Raiders, I just think, you know,

1073
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 1: they're they're they're they're gonna be a little bit more

1074
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 1: of a higher floor team than I think people will

1075
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:36,640
Speaker 1: give them credit for. Like, I don't think they'll be

1076
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: completely terrible or like they've been at times in these

1077
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 1: past few years. So uh, not nothing much on them.

1078
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 1: But I do think the other one that when you

1079
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 1: just look at the schedule, that kind of I felt.

1080
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: My attention was the New York Giants, just because you

1081
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 1: do have these three quarterbacks on the roster, Wilson Winston

1082
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 1: and then your first round pick, Jackson Dart. Now, you

1083
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: typically when you draft a guy like Dart, you know,

1084
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,840
Speaker 1: was it twenty fifth overall, you expect him to start

1085
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 1: for you at some point in the season, whether it's

1086
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,719
Speaker 1: four games, whether it's eight games, whether it's ten to

1087
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: twelve or more. You do expect him to start games

1088
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: for you in year one, even if he doesn't start

1089
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 1: in week one for you. But this Giants team doesn't

1090
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 1: have a bye week until very late in the season.

1091
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 1: Where was Week fourteen? Is there bye? And it's like okay, well,

1092
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 1: you typically you kind of look at the bye as

1093
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: like a natural point where maybe you'd work the rookie in,

1094
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:48,400
Speaker 1: but your buy is not until December seventh or December eighth,

1095
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 1: so it's yeah, seventh, so it's that week. So it's

1096
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: like you go in three straight months and you have

1097
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: one of the toughest schedules in the league. You know,

1098
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:01,440
Speaker 1: Washing at Washington at Dallas, Kansas City, the Chargers at

1099
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,399
Speaker 1: New Orleans is an easy one or the easiest one.

1100
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 1: Then Philly at Denver at Philly, San Francisco at Chicago,

1101
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Detroit at New England. They could be

1102
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 1: one in twelve. They could be a good team and

1103
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 1: still be one in like they could be improved from

1104
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 1: last year and they're only winning to be Washington, or

1105
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 1: they could be like two in h two and eleven

1106
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 1: or something with they're only New England or something.

1107
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 3: The only other option is a Week six there Thursday

1108
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 3: Night Football against the Eagles, and then Week seven at Denver.

1109
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,439
Speaker 3: I mean it does give them ten days. I don't

1110
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 3: necessarily know if you want to throw Jackson dart on

1111
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 3: the road in Denver against that defense in the UH

1112
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 3: in the what's it called, yeah, in the elevation, I

1113
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 3: don't know if that's completely smart, but yeah, you're right.

1114
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 3: I mean the schedule is absolutely brutal. And then even

1115
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 3: if you do use the buye you come out of

1116
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,880
Speaker 3: the by against Washington and Minnesota. You know, not exactly

1117
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:01,320
Speaker 3: to the opponents, but I guess if you're one in

1118
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 3: twelve and you know you want to throw a dart

1119
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 3: out there, it's fine. But yeah, the Giants have it brutal.

1120
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think the ideal for them at

1121
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 1: this point would be if he just wins the job

1122
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 1: for week won, because you don't we know Russell Wilson

1123
00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:18,480
Speaker 1: is not getting back to what he was now he

1124
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 1: can be he could be more competent than if you

1125
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:25,440
Speaker 1: had like a replacement level cast of characters in your

1126
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 1: quarterback room the year before, which the Giants did, which

1127
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: you know, I think the Steelers did the year before

1128
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 1: they got him. So it you you understand his value,

1129
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: but he's going to be a year older. I think

1130
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 1: that there's a chance that that Dart, But this is

1131
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 1: a decent chance that Dart just ends up winning that

1132
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 1: week one job. I think with Wilson, the reasons why

1133
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 1: they're so I think the reason they're so kind of

1134
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 1: outwardly or publicly I guess I should say committed to

1135
00:57:55,080 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 1: him is because I think he has a a team

1136
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: and you know, very good people working with him that

1137
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, kind of get these certain agreements

1138
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 1: and very conscious of his image. Because if if you

1139
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 1: remember even last year with Pittsburgh, it was like, you know,

1140
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 1: we were all kind of looking at it like, okay,

1141
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 1: Wilson in Fields, that's kind of there's not that much separation,

1142
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: just based on this stage of their careers. Uh. And

1143
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 1: then you know Tomlins all just like, no, it's Wilson's job.

1144
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 1: It's Wilson's job. And then all of a sudden, there's

1145
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 1: like this mysterious injury and Field is start in the

1146
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,320
Speaker 1: first six weeks. So it kind of had to be

1147
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:31,919
Speaker 1: a little low key. I think you could see something

1148
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 1: like that happened here too. It's New York, it's you know,

1149
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 1: I'm sure Russell Wilson and his team very conscious of

1150
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:44,120
Speaker 1: whatever gets reported outwardly. But behind the scenes, if Dabo

1151
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: shown or Shane excuse me, uh, you know, decide that

1152
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 1: Jackson dark gives him the best chance to win, or

1153
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 1: that he's ready, they're gonna find They're gonna figure out

1154
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: a way to play him sooner or later. And then Winston,

1155
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 1: I mean, same thing, like you know what he is.

1156
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 1: So it's like, I don't think you're you're really trying

1157
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: to devote a bunch of snaps to Winston. In the

1158
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 1: case that Wilson doesn't work out, you might as well

1159
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 1: just you're probably gonna be. You have a chance to

1160
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: be ten or two and eleven going into the buy. Anyway,

1161
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,240
Speaker 1: you might as well just lose those games with Dart.

1162
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 1: So I think that Dart is probably gonna start sooner

1163
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:20,560
Speaker 1: than people expect.

1164
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, those first four weeks at Washington, at Dallas versus

1165
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 3: the Chiefs versus the Chargers pretty brutal. All right, this

1166
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 3: is the last thing we're gonna talk about here, and

1167
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 3: it's just interesting, which is total miles traveled. This tends

1168
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 3: to go around every year, and honestly, to me, the

1169
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:39,440
Speaker 3: top five in terms of total miles traveled during the

1170
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 3: season from game to game isn't really shocking. So just

1171
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:45,920
Speaker 3: to be clear, eighteen thousand miles is about the median,

1172
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 3: So Chargers at the top at thirty seven thousand, you're

1173
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 3: gonna send out You're gonna see a pattern here Rams

1174
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 3: two thirty five thousand, three of the Seahawks at thirty

1175
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 3: one thousand, the Jaguars at twenty nine thousand, and San

1176
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 3: Francis at twenty eight thousand. The only thing that I

1177
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 3: found interesting on those five is that Seattle is third

1178
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 3: on the list and San Francisco's fifth on the list.

1179
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 3: Both of them don't have international games, so obviously the

1180
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 3: other teams are just you know, boosted a little bit

1181
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 3: because of that. But really San Francisco and of course Seattle,

1182
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 3: coming from the Pacific Northwest, tend to lead this category

1183
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:22,000
Speaker 3: most of the time. And the same you could be

1184
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 3: said about Jacksonville, like if they've got to go west,

1185
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 3: it's a very long trip. Before I give the bottom five,

1186
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 3: any thoughts to those five and just does this do

1187
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:31,800
Speaker 3: anything for you? Is this something you look into.

1188
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 1: To be frank not really anymore, because so I do

1189
01:00:38,040 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: think that you love to have the data, and I

1190
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 1: think this data, you know, you have this data. You know,

1191
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 1: a few decades ago people we would have killed for it.

1192
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 1: But that's when I think it was more relevant because remember,

1193
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 1: travel has improved, you know, so much, so a lot

1194
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,479
Speaker 1: of the issues with miles traveled, and the reason why

1195
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 1: you could factor it in was you have these larger

1196
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 1: than normal human beings getting cramped into these tight spaces

1197
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: and like the hotels, beds weren't good enough. And like

1198
01:01:08,600 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 1: I've spoken to the form alignment who who said as much, Like,

1199
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 1: you know, travel used to suck because beds weren't big

1200
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,520
Speaker 1: enough and seats weren't big enough. And now there's just

1201
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 1: everyone's wearing a micro trip and everyone there's just so

1202
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 1: been so much optimization over the past you know, quarter century.

1203
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 1: I think just kind of building, especially the last you know,

1204
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 1: ten fifteen years, in terms of rest and travel and

1205
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 1: health and all that that. I just don't think it

1206
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 1: factors in. It's more it's interesting to talk about. And

1207
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:41,920
Speaker 1: I think there are spots where again I guess, you know,

1208
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:45,280
Speaker 1: like a team like the Chargers, I do think, you know,

1209
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:48,240
Speaker 1: they they're probably at a greater risk than normal and

1210
01:01:48,240 --> 01:01:51,160
Speaker 1: then if a team like on the flip side of

1211
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 1: like the Niners, is getting you know, or getting more

1212
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 1: rest than usual, I think that could benefit them just

1213
01:01:56,040 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 1: because of how injured they've been. But generally I do

1214
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 1: think it's it's really hard to quantify and do anything

1215
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 1: with it. Like I think if you run the numbers, like,

1216
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 1: what are you gonna get spread wise as far as

1217
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 1: an adjustment like so there's maybe maybe coming off of

1218
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 1: a buy or something like, you might get a couple

1219
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 1: of like a decimal couple of decimal points, But generally

1220
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 1: it's really hard to do anything with that information.

1221
01:02:23,720 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 3: Predictively, Yeah, and it's totality, I think it has just small,

1222
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 3: small values. I think it's a spot circle, which we

1223
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:32,840
Speaker 3: always talk about, which is like game to game, there

1224
01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:35,840
Speaker 3: could be interesting things, but I think overall it's a

1225
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 3: little dormant. And just to be clear, the top five

1226
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 3: teams in terms of like least traveled the least is

1227
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 3: the Bengals at about eight thousand miles, then the Bills

1228
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:48,240
Speaker 3: a ten thousand, the Ravens of ten thousand, the Lions

1229
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 3: of eleven thousand, the Bears at twelve thousand. So I

1230
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:54,440
Speaker 3: guess the thing you do see in those like least

1231
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:57,400
Speaker 3: traveled mile teams, they're pretty damn good. Like they're they're

1232
01:02:57,400 --> 01:03:01,040
Speaker 3: they're actually just like between the Bengals, the Bill, the Ravens,

1233
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 3: and the Lions feels like something. Even Chicago's got momentum

1234
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:07,520
Speaker 3: this year, they all feel like probably playoff teams potentially.

1235
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 3: So I find that a little intriguing. All Right, anything

1236
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 3: else before we get.

1237
01:03:12,160 --> 01:03:14,720
Speaker 1: Out of here, Raymond? Yeah, I mean, just you know,

1238
01:03:14,800 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 1: to kind of put a ball on the miles traveled

1239
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,520
Speaker 1: because this is going to be talked about by every

1240
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:22,280
Speaker 1: you know, you're gonna hear different people talk and kind

1241
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 1: of use it in different ways. Now the schedules out,

1242
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 1: but I think it's again it's something you said earlier,

1243
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:32,000
Speaker 1: is it's important to go situation by situation in certain cases.

1244
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 1: And the NFL is a unique beast in the sense

1245
01:03:34,240 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 1: that you can kind of wrap your your head around

1246
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 1: and kind of lock into the specific things you're you're

1247
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:44,240
Speaker 1: looking to, like the markets you're looking to invest it

1248
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 1: because it's it's a thirty two team league, but there's

1249
01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:51,000
Speaker 1: only seven eighteen weeks and seventeen games, and a lot

1250
01:03:51,000 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 1: of these things are very specific, and the things you

1251
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:56,680
Speaker 1: might hear that get the most buzz aren't necessarily the

1252
01:03:56,760 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 1: things that are going to have any acttionable impact. So

1253
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:07,680
Speaker 1: for example, you know, mentioned the Lions the Bengals some

1254
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:11,120
Speaker 1: of the least travel teams. But we know that there's

1255
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:16,640
Speaker 1: specific situations that impact the Lions and the Bengals related

1256
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:19,040
Speaker 1: to travel, and it really has nothing to do with distance.

1257
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 1: With the Lions, it's Jared Goff struggles in outdoors and

1258
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:26,960
Speaker 1: in weather. It doesn't matter if it's far or close,

1259
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:29,959
Speaker 1: it's just that he did. The numbers say he tends

1260
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 1: to struggle more outdoors and especially in poor weather. And

1261
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 1: with the Bengals, they just tend to struggle early in

1262
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 1: the season. They tend to struggle on their road trip

1263
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:48,200
Speaker 1: to Cleveland, which is literally like the closest possible road

1264
01:04:48,240 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 1: trip they could make. And you know, maybe it's wind related,

1265
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:55,680
Speaker 1: maybe it's stadium related, maybe it's just you know, vibes related.

1266
01:04:55,720 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 1: But the point is, yeah, like there's the edif. Oh,

1267
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:02,080
Speaker 1: it is so unique, I think, and we do have

1268
01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 1: enough unique data that you have to kind of or

1269
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 1: I think it is more advisable and generally optimal to

1270
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 1: kind of as much as you can try to, you

1271
01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 1: still want to create models that can apply to you know,

1272
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 1: entire populations. But generally speaking, when you're looking to actually

1273
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:29,280
Speaker 1: you know, find something actionable and get an edge on something,

1274
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:32,480
Speaker 1: it does benefit pay to kind of lock in to

1275
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:35,480
Speaker 1: specific situations and not just kind of look at it

1276
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 1: like so birds eye like oh yeah, tea, these things

1277
01:05:38,880 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 1: are the most models, and these thes are the least

1278
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 1: miles and so you know what I mean. It's like

1279
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,320
Speaker 1: it's very nuanced where you know, like I think you

1280
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:46,919
Speaker 1: said San Francisco was near the top of that list,

1281
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:49,600
Speaker 1: but then San Francisco also has a lot of rest advantages,

1282
01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 1: which is a lot more important just given that they

1283
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 1: didn't don't seem to have had those in the past.

1284
01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 1: And then you know, there's also we haven't talked about,

1285
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 1: like I think turf issues for certain teams, you know,

1286
01:06:02,440 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 1: and and body type of the rock of players at

1287
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 1: roster we kind of got and set with a charge.

1288
01:06:07,040 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 1: So it's very nuanced and very unique, and for each

1289
01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:11,960
Speaker 1: team you could kind of go through and kind of

1290
01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:14,520
Speaker 1: you know, the more you kind of dig into them,

1291
01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:16,840
Speaker 1: you kind of find the situations that you need to

1292
01:06:17,800 --> 01:06:19,919
Speaker 1: dig deeper into and kind of adjust for that team.

1293
01:06:19,960 --> 01:06:23,360
Speaker 1: Specifically or you know, look deeper into it because of

1294
01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 1: because it applies to that team. So that that's the

1295
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 1: way I would just go for anybody listening, you know,

1296
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 1: going forward, and it's going still ways away where we

1297
01:06:32,680 --> 01:06:35,000
Speaker 1: still got like four months before the season starts, You're

1298
01:06:35,000 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 1: going to be hearing a lot about a lot of

1299
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 1: different information, and you know it's getting harder and harder

1300
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:43,520
Speaker 1: to kind of pars through what's important and was not,

1301
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:45,240
Speaker 1: So that that's just something I wanted to kind of

1302
01:06:45,240 --> 01:06:45,840
Speaker 1: throw out there.

1303
01:06:46,520 --> 01:06:49,040
Speaker 3: Well, that's a good little ending here to our pod

1304
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 3: because we've gone a lot here. We've gone through a

1305
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:55,680
Speaker 3: lot of information. We've talked about schedule, travel all across

1306
01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:58,200
Speaker 3: the board, and we will be back soon to go

1307
01:06:58,240 --> 01:07:00,439
Speaker 3: over more bets and talk about all the for types

1308
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:03,000
Speaker 3: of stuff going forward into the off season as we

1309
01:07:03,000 --> 01:07:05,800
Speaker 3: start to build our units and kind of figure out

1310
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 3: how we're going to be handicapping this season going forward.

1311
01:07:08,160 --> 01:07:11,200
Speaker 3: But I am Evan Abrams. That is Chris Raybond. This

1312
01:07:11,280 --> 01:07:14,720
Speaker 3: has been the Action Network Podcast schedule release show and

1313
01:07:14,880 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 3: thanks for tuning in and see you guys soon. Action

1314
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 3: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1315
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:31,200
Speaker 3: you care about has a gambling problem.

1316
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:34,120
Speaker 1: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1317
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler