1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is your weekly 2 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: Washington policy Pulse, the Balance of Power Podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of 4 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming 5 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 1: catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean. 8 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Nathan Dean. 9 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 3: I'm a senior policy animals with Bloomberg Intelligence here in Washington, 10 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 3: d C. 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: We want to say thank. 12 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 3: You very much for joining the Washington Policy Post this week. 13 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 3: I also want to say thank you for those of 14 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 3: you who are attending this via the Balance of Power podcast. 15 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 3: We always appreciate your listening. Today is March thirtieth. We 16 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 3: are recording this at ten two am. I've started timestamping 17 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 3: this because we've discovered that a lot of things happen 18 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 3: in the Washington space. So let's go ahead and jump 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 3: right into it. Last Friday, I'm going to talk about 20 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 3: the DHS shutdown first. So last Friday, actually I think 21 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 3: it was Thursday, No it's Friday. Around two am, the 22 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 3: Senate came up with a bipartisan plan to essentially fund 23 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: the Department of Homeland Security minus ICE and minus some 24 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 3: custom border patrol portions. Now, as a reminder, I think 25 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 3: many of you have heard me say this before. ICE 26 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: was funded via the One Big Beautiful Bill seventy five 27 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 3: billion dollars through fiscal year twenty twenty nine. So this 28 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 3: essentially just said we're going to fund everything but that. 29 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 3: So the Senate passed it, and most of them had 30 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 3: a nap, and then they got up Friday morning, and 31 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 3: then they flew home and they went to the airport. 32 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 3: The House, on the other hand, came in and said, look, 33 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 3: we have this rule. It's this really interesting rule within 34 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 3: the one hundred nineteenth Congress that under the rules you 35 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 3: couldn't pass something under the suspension of the rules, meaning 36 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 3: you couldn't really go quickly on this on a Thursday, Friday, Saturday, 37 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 3: or Sunday. This was something that was inserted into the 38 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 3: rules language by the House Freedom Caucus. This was they 39 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 3: entirely just to prevent situations like this where the Senate 40 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: jams the House up. The House is said, look, you 41 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,359 Speaker 3: have to accept something or then go home. They couldn't 42 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 3: get it past the Wulves Committee. Speaker Johnson had many 43 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 3: conversations with members of the House Freedom Caucus. They weren't 44 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 3: not happy with this deal because, as a reminder, this 45 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 3: deal did not include President Trump's Save America Act, the 46 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 3: voter ID citizenship rule, and so they essentially just couldn't 47 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 3: get unanimous consent and they weren't going to be able 48 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 3: to get it through within that timeframe. It was essentially 49 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 3: was going to have to wait till today. So what 50 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 3: the House did instead is they passed a sixty day 51 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 3: stopgap resolution funding everything in DHS and they sent it 52 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: back to the Senate and then both sides went home. 53 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 3: So now we're in a situation where the Senate is home, 54 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 3: the House is home, and they both said, we've done 55 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,119 Speaker 3: our part. It's now up to the other side to agree. 56 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 3: So we have a two week recess. Now this can 57 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,679 Speaker 3: work one of two ways. One, the Senate has said 58 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 3: that they have no plans to come back. The Republicans 59 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: the House. Republicans are trying to blame the Democrats on this. 60 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 3: The Democrats are saying, look, it's not our issue anymore. 61 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: This is Republican infighting. We've done our part. Here's this 62 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 3: bipartisan plan we've agreed upon with the Senate. It's your 63 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 3: problem now, So I don't see. Look, it's a holiday 64 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 3: week in the States. Obviously, the markets are closed on Friday, 65 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 3: with Good Friday, we have Easter on Sunday. 66 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 2: So you're not gonna see either side come back this week. 67 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 3: Now, there is some talk in town about bringing them 68 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 3: next week, bringing them back next week, But if they 69 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 3: come back next week, you're gonna have a lot of 70 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 3: members just sitting around essentially blaming other sides at the 71 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 3: moment without actually much work to do. I'm not exactly 72 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 3: sure how this gets resolved. Because President Trump, in the 73 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 3: interim has said via executive order that he's going to 74 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 3: direct the Department of Homeland Security to use unallocated funds 75 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 3: from the One Big Beautiful Bill to pay the TSA workers. 76 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 3: And those paychecks will come out quote as soon as 77 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 3: early as today. So maybe you'll start to see the 78 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 3: lines that the TSA begin to get a little bit 79 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 3: better just because the TSA workers are getting paid. But 80 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 3: if you're a member of FEMA or Coast Guard or 81 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 3: another Department of Homeland Security. 82 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: Group, you're still not getting paid. 83 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 3: And unfortunately, you know, this is one of the situations 84 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 3: where I think you're gonna see this continue and continue, 85 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 3: because President Trump essentially used the unilateral authority and said, look, Congress, 86 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 3: you're not doing your job. Therefore I'm going to pay. 87 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 3: And the answer is sue me. You don't like it, 88 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 3: sue me. And the Democrats looked at this and they said, look, politically, 89 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 3: we're not going to sue you on this. So the 90 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 3: Democrats are saying, you know, we've already done our job. 91 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 3: We've signed a bill with the Republicans in the Senate. 92 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 3: We're not doing anything more. So this is one of 93 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,119 Speaker 3: those situations where I think it sort of resets the clock, 94 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 3: if you will, and you have to start looking at 95 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: pressure points here, and I'm not exactly sure how this 96 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 3: gets resolved. So you know, again you may see the 97 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 3: TSA lines get a little bit better at the airports. 98 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 3: But again, if you're one of those other department heads 99 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 3: or you're working from one of those the two hundred 100 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 3: and seventy five thousand other employees. 101 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, it's gonna be really interesting 102 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: to see how it works out. 103 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 3: But when Congress does get back, so whether it's next 104 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 3: week or two weeks and they do figure this out, 105 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 3: there's a couple of things I want to talk about. 106 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 3: One of the Senate Banking Committee is talking about having 107 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: a markup for Kevin worsh to be the next chairman 108 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 3: of the Federal Reserve. That's gonna be the week of 109 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,799 Speaker 3: April thirteenth. Now, sorry, not a markup, a confirmation hearing. 110 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 2: Now. Senator Tom Tillis has said, you can have a hearing. 111 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 3: That's fine, more than happy to have a hearing, but 112 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 3: I'm not going to advance his nomination. So even though 113 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 3: they're gonna have a hearing, this DOJ investigation into the 114 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve still continues. So I don't see Senator Tillis 115 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 3: just changing his mind saying, you know what, you decided 116 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 3: to have a hearing, so I'm gonna go ahead and 117 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 3: vote for him now, so you'll have the hearing, and 118 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 3: then I think it just continues to fester and nothing 119 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 3: really changes from that. They're gonna work on this cryptocurrency bill, 120 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 3: They're gonna work on this housing bill. You're gonna see 121 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 3: lots of discussion on an AI framework. For what it's 122 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 3: worth my colleague Matt Schttenhelm doesn't have much odds of 123 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 3: an AI framework bill passing this year. As a reminder, 124 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 3: just last week the White House put out its framework 125 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 3: on AI was actually only three pages and was mostly bullets. 126 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 3: How that translates into is going to be very difficult 127 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 3: to come by in an election year. So again just 128 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 3: keep that in mind. But you're going to see a 129 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 3: lot of work quote unquote. If you can't watch me 130 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 3: on if you're not seeing me right now, I'm doing 131 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 3: air quotes, you're gonna see a lot of work. Meaning 132 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 3: there are a lot of good discussions on this, but 133 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 3: I don't think it translates into actual tangible policy anytime soon. 134 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 3: And then you got the Reconciliation Bill. So where we're 135 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 3: where with the Reconciliation Bill, remember think of one big 136 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 3: beautiful bill. 137 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 2: Part two. 138 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 3: This is where Republicans are going to pass something and 139 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 3: bypass the Democrats because they can avoid the filibuster. 140 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 2: So it has to have a budgetary impact. 141 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: Can't do anything like raise the national wage like the 142 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 3: Democrats have tried, or you're not gonna be able to 143 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 3: do things like the Save America Act, even though you 144 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 3: know they said that some people were saying that they 145 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 3: were going to do this via reconciliation. Senate parliamentarian most 146 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 3: likely will come in here and say you can't do it. 147 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 3: In fact, you tah. Senator Mike Lee has already gone 148 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 3: on the record said you can't do this via reconciliation. 149 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 3: But you are to see the Republicans try to come 150 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 3: together and cobble up with this reconciliation bill. 151 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 2: The most important thing. 152 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 3: For the people on this call is the Iranian supplemental 153 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 3: defense funding package that's coming from the Pentagon to the 154 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 3: White House and then to the Congress. And so Wayne 155 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 3: Sanders and I took a look at it last week. 156 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 3: We can send you this research if you want. If 157 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 3: you look at two hundred billion dollars, think anti missile 158 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 3: technology and counter drone technology. Wayne told me multiple times 159 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 3: it's not anti drone, it's counter drone, and that favors 160 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 3: three defense contractors. It's Lockheed, Martin, RTX, and North of Brummen. 161 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 3: And so if this package comes out from two hundred 162 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 3: billion dollars goes to the White House, they don't attach 163 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 3: anything to it. You could probably attach fifteen billion dollars worth, 164 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 3: The Farmers aid, but as long as this bill doesn't 165 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 3: balloon up into a trillion dollar bill, then this one 166 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 3: is fairly decent. I think this one could pass if 167 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 3: it's solely about the troops and solely about defense. But 168 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 3: as soon as you start attaching things like ice funding 169 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 3: or border security, or Obamacare or tax changes, I mean, 170 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 3: you are gonna have to find budgetary offsets for this. 171 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 3: But once this thing starts blowing up, then the odds 172 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 3: of that bill going down actually dramatically decreases. Put this 173 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 3: in your hip pocket. Right now, they're just talking ideas. 174 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 3: Nobody here has really specifics. You're gonna see that come 175 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 3: back when Congress comes back in one or two weeks. 176 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 3: You're gonna see more specifics being added to it. And 177 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 3: so look for this to get really hardcore debate. Some 178 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 3: of the Republicans around town are saying, we should get 179 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 3: this for President Trump so that you can sign this 180 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 3: on the fourth of July. You so think about that 181 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 3: is in terms of your timeframe for this reconciliation bill. 182 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 3: We'll be covering this quite a bit on that. So, 183 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 3: but let's move a little bit away from Congress. Some 184 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 3: of the other things you can see is just the 185 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 3: SEC has two rule makings that we think are coming 186 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 3: out next month. 187 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 2: This is a cryptocurrency. 188 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 3: This is more of a codification of their guidance that 189 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 3: they issued a little bit earlier this month on crypto. 190 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 2: So you're gonna see the SEC. 191 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 3: And I call this a nice to have rule making, 192 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:51,959 Speaker 3: not a required rule making. And what I mean by 193 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 3: that is the SEC or the CFTC, And this is 194 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 3: the same thing that you can see with the CFTC 195 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 3: on prediction markets. They could say, look, the law is already, 196 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 3: we can just do this via guidance. That's great, But 197 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 3: a future chairman could come in on their Democrats and say, 198 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 3: well you did this via guidance, Stroger the PEM, I've 199 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 3: wiped it out with new guidance. But if you do 200 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 3: a rule making, you're essentially putting another layer of security 201 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,079 Speaker 3: on that rule, so that a future SEC chair or 202 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 3: a future c of DC chair has to come in 203 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 3: and do a formal rule making to undo that work. 204 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 3: And that's where I think the SEC crypto work is 205 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 3: going to be on, So look for that in April. 206 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 3: The other thing is in our colleague Bloomberg News, Lydia 207 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 3: Buyod sorry, Lydia Bayud said this morning that The Office 208 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 3: of Management of Budget has just gotten the proposal on 209 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,599 Speaker 3: SEC quarterly earnings. We talked about this a couple of 210 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 3: weeks ago. This is where you know, if you're not 211 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 3: gonna have quarterly earnings anymore, you're gonna go to semi annual. 212 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 3: At least give the companies to go the option to 213 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 3: go to semi annual. There's debates about whether investors will 214 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 3: let big companies do it. Small company may come out 215 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 3: that are new, publicly traded may say, look, I'm just 216 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 3: going semi annual. You know, we can have an entire 217 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 3: call on that. The Office of Management and Budget got 218 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 3: the proposal this weekend, which means it could be out 219 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 3: as soon as probably call it mid April, So keep 220 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 3: your eye on that. The Labor Department just a few 221 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 3: moments ago released its proposal on implementing President Trump's Executive 222 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 3: Order on four on one ks in alternative assets. Now, 223 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 3: this rule had been at OMB for since January. Now 224 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 3: what President Trump did here as he said, look, I 225 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 3: want the Labor Department and then as an SEC as 226 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 3: a follow up, to release a proposal making it easier 227 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 3: for four to one K and employer retirement sponsored programs 228 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 3: to be able to invest in private equity funds, private credit, 229 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 3: and cryptocurrencies. Now, I have not read the proposal because 230 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 3: it just came out fifteen minutes ago. It's one hundred 231 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 3: and sixty four pages. It's a sixty day comment period. 232 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 3: But a couple of things to keep in mind, a 233 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 3: our four to one K plans can immediately start investing 234 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 3: in bitcoin, I don't know. I mean, we we have 235 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 3: serious considerations about that. And if it is a four 236 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 3: to one K plan going to invest in a private 237 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 3: equity fund when there's questions about liquidity, et cetera. So 238 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 3: Paul Goldberg and I have a note on what it 239 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 3: was like predicting the proposal, so I can give you 240 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 3: a copy of that, But give me a couple of 241 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 3: days to read the proposal. I'll probably have my thoughts 242 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 3: out on that next week. There is a very interesting 243 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 3: legal argument to this as well, in terms of liability 244 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 3: shield that my colleague Elliott Stein's going to be looking at. 245 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 3: But you know, let's stay connected on this. You know, 246 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 3: I'm going to be reading the proposal probably tomorrow, So 247 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 3: if you have questions on that, please let me know. 248 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: We'll do that. 249 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 3: A couple other things to keep in mind next month 250 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,319 Speaker 3: you'll probably see the Federal Reserve finalize its proposal on 251 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 3: the stress testing. 252 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 2: They may push this into May. 253 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 3: But in the heels of the Bosle three endgame ADJESUB 254 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 3: surcharge proposal that came out last week, and I just 255 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 3: my note for what it's worth. 256 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 2: The note just came out this morning. No real, big surprise. 257 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 3: You know, you're looking at around four point eight percent reduction, 258 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 3: about eighteen billion dollars in reduction in terms of CET 259 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 3: one for those big banks. These are the g sibs, 260 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 3: So real, no surprise there. You know, we could talk 261 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 3: about this, but I talked about the Bossiel three end 262 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 3: game quite a bit on my previous call. But you're 263 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 3: most likely going to see the Fed I think, really 264 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 3: finally though stress testing proposals. And then last Friday, the 265 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 3: EPA released it's new renewable fuel standards for biofuels. I'm 266 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 3: just gonna come out and say I don't understand this 267 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 3: one bit, but my colleague Brett Gibbs does, and he 268 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 3: and his clients have been and I'm going to use 269 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 3: this term with all love, they've been geeking out this 270 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 3: about this all weekend. Brett just put out an amazing analysis. 271 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 3: I say it's amazing because the one client that I 272 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 3: actually talked to you understood renewable fuel standards for biofuel, 273 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 3: said it was amazing. So if you have any questions 274 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 3: on the biofueld standards on that, let me put you 275 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 3: into contact with Brett and he can do that. 276 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 2: But the last thing I want to leave you with. 277 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 3: I know it's gonna be somewhat of a shorter call today, 278 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 3: but the last thing, and I think I said last 279 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 3: thing four times, but this is the actual last thing 280 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 3: is that on Friday, the President Trump is going to 281 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,079 Speaker 3: release his budget. So April third, you're going to release 282 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 3: the budget on Good Friday when Congress is in here. 283 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 3: Thing to note about a budget is that budgets never 284 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: get implemented because what happens is every White House sends 285 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 3: over their budget. Congresses, thank you very much, we really 286 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 3: appreciate it. 287 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 2: They throw it over their backs. 288 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 3: They completely ignore it, and they do whatever they want 289 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 3: to do anyway. But the one thing from this budget 290 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 3: that you're going to want to look at is the 291 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 3: defense spending or the national security spending, because it's been 292 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 3: reported that the Department of Defense. 293 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 2: Right now budget is eight hundred and eighty three billion dollars. 294 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 3: It's been reported the President Trump wants to go up 295 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 3: to one point five trillion, which is about a seventy 296 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,359 Speaker 3: percent increase with next year's budget. 297 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,239 Speaker 2: And so if you're trying. 298 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 3: To game out what's going on with Iran again, you know, 299 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 3: call me if you have questions on Iran, because we 300 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 3: have plenty of working groups. I didn't talk about on 301 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 3: this call, but we have lots of working groups and 302 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 3: a lot of our analysts are spending the time over 303 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 3: the weekend working on this stuff. But it'll be really 304 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 3: interesting to see how President Trump goes forth in terms 305 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 3: of this defense budget, because if you don't get it 306 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 3: via appropriations, those Republicans would say President Trump wants in 307 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 3: his seventy percent increase in terms of the Department of Defense. 308 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 3: If we know we're not going to be able to 309 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 3: get this done by September thirtieth, let's actually see if 310 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 3: we can insert some of this into the reconciliation bill 311 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 3: as well. That's the one thing I'm going to be 312 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: looking for everything else, even if there's things in here 313 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 3: like financial try user fees to fund the CFTC or 314 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 3: whatever they never get implemented. So I'll look at the 315 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 3: budget over the weekend. I'll talk about it next week 316 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 3: on Monday's Washington Policy Pulse. 317 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 2: But that's it. I'm going to say thank you very much. 318 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 2: We really appreciate it. 319 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 3: If you are traveling this week, save travels and we 320 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 3: will talk soon and have a great week. 321 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 2: Thank you. 322 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst, 323 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse. 324 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: For more from BI or to join this call live 325 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: each week, you can email Nathan Dean at Bloomberg dot net. 326 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 1: That's n D e a n at Bloomberg dot net 327 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: and come back to the podcast later today for the 328 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: latest edition of Balance of Power.