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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sportsman.

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Speaker 2: Don't want to trick your down, you got real telling,

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Speaker 2: go concentrate on golf.

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Speaker 3: Hello, and welcome back to the Action Network podcast, the

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Speaker 3: Golf Edition. I am your host, Peter Jennings and is

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Speaker 3: always joined by Jason Sobele. We're coming off a week

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Speaker 3: where we had two PGA events. We had the WGC

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Speaker 3: Mexico Championship as well as the Puerto Rico Open. Patrick

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Speaker 3: Reid won, which was not the guy I was hoping

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Speaker 3: to win, but it was a lot of other people

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Speaker 3: that was fun to watch. And Victor Hoblin got the

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Speaker 3: win in exciting fashion at the Puerto Rico Open, which

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Speaker 3: is a lot of fun to sweat and for the

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Speaker 3: avid golf fans, it was a great tournament. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: it should be a fun week. Jason, you are at

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Speaker 3: behind the Classic, you are going to be at all

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Speaker 3: the events on the Florida Swing. It's your backyard. How

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Speaker 3: are you doing? What have you picked up on from

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Speaker 3: being at the event.

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Speaker 1: Well, first of all, Peter, I am great. I am

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Speaker 1: looking forward to this time of year. As always, I

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Speaker 1: call it the laundry basket Swing. Because I will not

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Speaker 1: touch a suitcase for a month while I cover four

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Speaker 1: straight events on the PGA Tour, which to me is awesome,

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Speaker 1: and I don't care. I checked into pg National. We're

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Speaker 1: talking on Tuesday night, and this is just a couple

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Speaker 1: hours ago that I checked into the hotel and they

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Speaker 1: had the pairings party for the pro am, and there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of well dressed folks drinking very expensive

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Speaker 1: drinks in the lobby doing their kind of thing whatever

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Speaker 1: well dressed people drinking expensive drinks do. Hopefully they'll let

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Speaker 1: me in on that at some point. And I come

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Speaker 1: through walking through, checking in with my laundry basket, and

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Speaker 1: I don't give a you know what, I don't care

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Speaker 1: because I think it's awesome just not having to bring

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Speaker 1: a suitcase in and I just I'm just doing my thing,

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Speaker 1: so hung out in the lobby for a little bit.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't been to the Honda Classic before, the

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Speaker 1: best way I can put it is, it's just like Phoenix,

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Speaker 1: if everybody was much richer and forty years older.

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Speaker 3: That's the name of the game.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 3: That's pretty good life.

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Speaker 1: Everyone. Everyone who went to Phoenix forty years ago grew

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Speaker 1: up and got a really good job and decided to

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Speaker 1: come play in the program at PGA National for the

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Speaker 1: Honda Classic and just want to hang out and drink

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Speaker 1: and watch golf all week.

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Speaker 3: That's it. Hashtag how rich. Pretty awesome. It's going to

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Speaker 3: be a really nice stretch of golf here. We got

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Speaker 3: the players coming up. We're definitely in the full golf swing,

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Speaker 3: and man, it's got to be a pretty nice life

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Speaker 3: going around to all these events. And special shout out

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Speaker 3: to the DFS Open, which is happening this weekend close by.

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Speaker 3: I know a lot of the DFS players and some

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Speaker 3: of our listeners aren't going to be competing in that.

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Speaker 3: Give the folks some details on the DFS Open.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is gonna be cool. I'm looking forward to it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know a lot of the guys

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Speaker 1: who are playing. I'm looking forward to meeting a lot

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Speaker 1: of the guys. These are guys who I'm sure I've

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Speaker 1: interacted with on Twitter and probably don't like me already.

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Speaker 1: But no, this is gonna be really fun. We've got

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Speaker 1: ninety two DFS players, ninety two of probably the biggest

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Speaker 1: golf DFS players in the country who are flying in

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Speaker 1: from all over the place to play in a scramble

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Speaker 1: this weekend. We're all getting together for the party on

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Speaker 1: Friday night and then playing big Scramble on Saturday. And

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Speaker 1: check it out on Twitter. It's all over Twitter now.

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Speaker 1: If you follow anybody who's into DFS golf, you can

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Speaker 1: find where it is on Twitter. But you can actually

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Speaker 1: play DFS based on the scramble teams for Saturday's DFS Open,

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Speaker 1: I mean you can take us. So my team is

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Speaker 1: the third highest salary team. I have no idea what

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Speaker 1: that's based on. I was told there's a little recent form.

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Speaker 1: I shot said three a few days ago, which is decent,

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Speaker 1: and there's some course history. I'm playing with with Joe,

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Speaker 1: who's running the event, so Joe knows the course pretty well.

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Speaker 1: I believe it's a fifty nine hundred yard course, so

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Speaker 1: there's a there's gonna be some birdies and eagles to

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Speaker 1: be made out there. I got a buddy of mine,

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Speaker 1: Jason Shannon, coming, who's uh. I won't call him a ringer,

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Speaker 1: but he he hits a pretty good too, so like

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Speaker 1: our chances. But yeah, it should be a really fun event.

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Speaker 1: I don't know a lot of the guys other than

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Speaker 1: just seeing their names on Twitter, seeing their names on

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Speaker 1: DFS leader boards all the time. So looking forward to

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Speaker 1: getting to know everybody. And Action Network is sponsoring a

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Speaker 1: hole and giving out some prizes, so I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a really, really fun weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, sounds great. Wish I could be out there. I

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Speaker 3: am golfed out and unfortunately I have a bunch going on,

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Speaker 3: but it should be a lot of fun.

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Speaker 1: You'll have Tiger these days come on, admit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm still shaking off some bad golf, but

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Speaker 3: I'm ready to get back out there at some point

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Speaker 3: here soon. I wish they could be out there. The

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Speaker 3: schedule just didn't fall that way. But real quick, Jason,

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Speaker 3: before we dive into PJ National and the Honda Classic,

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Speaker 3: a couple of takeaways for me that I think could

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Speaker 3: provide some value going forward. One, Victor Hoblin is a

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Speaker 3: total stud. I have some stats on him for the

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Speaker 3: PJ National. Thrilled to see more Kala, Wolf and hobblin

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Speaker 3: all now with PJA wins, those guys are going to

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Speaker 3: be a staple of the tour for a long time,

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Speaker 3: and it's great to see him when he seems just

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Speaker 3: like a great kid, and is a deserving winner. One

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Speaker 3: of the best golfers has, you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: best amateur track records of any of the guys on tour.

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Speaker 3: So congrats to Victor. And then with the Mexico Championship,

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Speaker 3: I thought there are a couple of key takeaways. Still

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Speaker 3: big believer in Rory. I think he's by far the

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Speaker 3: best player in the world. Didn't have his best stuff,

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Speaker 3: still is right there on Sunday, and I think he's

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Speaker 3: positioned to win potentially multiple majors this year, at least

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Speaker 3: have a couple of really nice showings and big events.

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Speaker 3: And then Hideki Matsiyama is the one guy that I

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Speaker 3: think has the strongest signal from last week. Obviously didn't

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Speaker 3: score as well, but was number one in proximity to

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Speaker 3: the whole hudded awful, And I think if Matsiama can

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Speaker 3: get his putting going just a little bit, I like

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Speaker 3: his new swing. He's not doing the huge pause, So

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Speaker 3: that's one thing I'm looking to capitalize on looking at

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Speaker 3: some Matsiama futures potentially, and I definitely want to exposure

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Speaker 3: to him in the events that he's playing coming up.

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Speaker 3: So what are your thoughts on the events last week

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Speaker 3: and then we'll dive into.

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Speaker 1: The Honda that's the story of his life. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if Deckie Matsuyama could putt, he'd be brook Scripta. If

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Speaker 1: you could only putt, so yes, if you could just

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Speaker 1: put average, he would be really good. So I agree

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Speaker 1: with you. The decies getting there, but not quite there yet.

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Speaker 1: The biggest takeaway from Mexico last week is that and

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Speaker 1: we've said this before, and we've talked about ed nauseum,

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Speaker 1: and I felt we were probably done with it for

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Speaker 1: a little bit, but we're not. Patrick Reid is the

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Speaker 1: most polarizing player in golf, and it's not close. If

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Speaker 1: you want to go out there and hate him, and

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Speaker 1: if you want to call him a cheater, and if

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Speaker 1: you want to say I root against Patrick Reed with

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Speaker 1: everything in me, that's fine. Look you're entitled to that

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Speaker 1: as a fan, and you're not alone. All I can

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Speaker 1: tell you is that the more collectively people root against

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Speaker 1: Patrick Reed, the better he plays. And I don't understand it.

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Speaker 1: I do not understand that makeup ninety five percent, maybe

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Speaker 1: more ninety eight percent of the players on tour, if

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Speaker 1: they had the majority of fans rooting actively rooting against them,

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Speaker 1: it would not work in their favor. And yet Patrick Reed.

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Speaker 1: The more people don't like him, I'll say the hate word.

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Speaker 1: The more people hate Patrick Reed, the better he plays.

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Speaker 1: So you guys just keep it coming. You guys that

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Speaker 1: don't want Patrick Red to succeed for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the year, start writing in love notes on Twitter, the

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Speaker 1: start saying how much, oh man, Patrick, what a great

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Speaker 1: player he is. Because the more you say, ah, that

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Speaker 1: guy's a cheater, that guy's the worst man. I hope

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Speaker 1: that guy never wins anything. The more you say that,

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Speaker 1: the more he responds with making clutch putts down the

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Speaker 1: stretch whenever he needs to. I get all of the criticisms,

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Speaker 1: and they are well founded criticisms that said he is

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Speaker 1: clutch man, he is a closer. That's now eight wins

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Speaker 1: in the last eight years, eight calendar years, a major,

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Speaker 1: two WGCs. The guy is really really good, and he's

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Speaker 1: really good with his back against the wall and everybody

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Speaker 1: rooting against him. One other thing you mentioned Hoveland, great

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Speaker 1: win for holand so cool to see him, Morcowa and

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Speaker 1: Wolf all on the board now with victories. I said

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Speaker 1: it last year and I actually said after Colin Morricowe

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Speaker 1: won that I would take Hovelin long term out of

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Speaker 1: all three of those guys. I will stick with it.

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Speaker 1: Even though, man, I like Colin Morcow's game, I'm not

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Speaker 1: very confident in it because I think Morcow is really

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Speaker 1: really good. But I will stick with Hoveland long term

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Speaker 1: just because I said it last year. Really cool to

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Speaker 1: see him on the board of one.

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Speaker 3: Now absolutely, and Patrick reed to tech what you said.

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Speaker 3: I mean, what a ridiculous finish. And he is the

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Speaker 3: opposite of Matsiama. He is fourth so far this year

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Speaker 3: in Strokes game putting. He's a great putter, he's a

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Speaker 3: great scramble you can see. I mean, he is easily

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Speaker 3: one of the best you know around the greens and

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Speaker 3: on the greens, and you know when he's hitting the ball. Well,

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Speaker 3: he is very very tough because he has been quote

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Speaker 3: unquote clutch for a long time now. So yeah, a

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Speaker 3: shout out to Patrick Reid. I know he's a polarizing character,

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Speaker 3: but got to give him respect. Yeah, to your point

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Speaker 3: of Matsiyama, he's one hundred and seventy ninth this year

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Speaker 3: in Strokes game putting. That is really really bad. A

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Speaker 3: couple other big names that I was going to point

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Speaker 3: out that are relevant. A couple of them this week,

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Speaker 3: a couple of them going forward. I think you could

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Speaker 3: possibly see some positive regression. Some of these guys aren't

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Speaker 3: great putters. Calmore Kaala is looking like a pretty bad

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Speaker 3: putter so far, but he's young. We'll see if he

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Speaker 3: can turn that around. He's one hundred and sixty ninths

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Speaker 3: so far and strokes game putting. Xander's right next to

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Speaker 3: him at one hundred and seventieth. I think both those

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Speaker 3: guys seen around, those guys will see some positive regression

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Speaker 3: and you have your normal names. Keegan's two hundred and third,

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Speaker 3: co cracks two hundred first. And then the one guy

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Speaker 3: that we're going to talk about this week that I

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Speaker 3: like a lot is young hunt On, who is a really,

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Speaker 3: really bad putter. He's struggling and he's still able to

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Speaker 3: put up some good rounds. Currently two hundred and eighth

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Speaker 3: on the PGA towards jokeskin putting. There's only two hundred

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Speaker 3: and thirty three guys that are you know, fit that

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Speaker 3: the real tiger Woods two hundred and twenty eighth.

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Speaker 1: By the way, how about that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, at not many events, only twelve rounds, but Tiger

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Speaker 3: really struggled at Riviera, which brought him down. So I'm

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Speaker 3: looking for regression and putting normally, and some of these

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Speaker 3: guys are consistently bad putters, so you kind of have

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Speaker 3: to weep that out. But that is one area where

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Speaker 3: you can generally gain some alpha, and the markets is

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Speaker 3: banking on regression. So with the Honda Classic, it's at

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Speaker 3: PGA National, water everywhere, people can make big numbers all

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Speaker 3: over the place. Brutal tournaments some regards to sweat just

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Speaker 3: because some of your guys can look like they're in

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Speaker 3: great shape and then just blow up. What are your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on the course and what type of golfers are

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Speaker 3: you looking for?

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Speaker 1: So well, it's a pretty good segue into what I

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Speaker 1: wanted to talk about here, because if you're ever going

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Speaker 1: to pick an event where putting might not matter as

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Speaker 1: much because it's a ball striker's golf course and you've

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Speaker 1: got to keep it out of the hazards and you've

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Speaker 1: got to at least flight your ball. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be a two club wind, as it usually is here

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Speaker 1: at pg National, So you're looking at ball strikers and

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Speaker 1: you're not necessarily looking at the best putters, and you've

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Speaker 1: got guys you mentioned bongong An, who is a very

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Speaker 1: good ball striker and a very bad putter. Emiliano Grillo

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Speaker 1: is a very good ball striker an incredibly bad putter.

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Speaker 1: Corey Connors is a very good ball striker and a

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Speaker 1: not great putter. Those are the kind of guys you

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Speaker 1: might be looking at this week on a regular week

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Speaker 1: where everybody hits the green. This is how I tried

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Speaker 1: to explain it to someone the other day. I said,

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Speaker 1: on a regular week, or just take a week win,

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Speaker 1: Let's say everybody hits the green regulation every single time.

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Speaker 1: Let's say everybody's gonna hit seventy two greens in reg. Well,

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Speaker 1: you don't want to take those guys who are bad

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Speaker 1: putters because quite frankly, they're not going to make as

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Speaker 1: many as everybody else's on a week when there's a

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Speaker 1: lower percentage of greens and reg Give me those guys

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Speaker 1: who are worse putters because it's going to level the

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Speaker 1: playing field on the greens a little bit. So, Uh,

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Speaker 1: those are our three guys right off the top that

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Speaker 1: come to mind, where if you want to talk about

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Speaker 1: bad putters in this week's field, but really good ball

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Speaker 1: strikers on Grio and Corey Conners are the three right there,

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Speaker 1: right off the top that I go. If there's ever

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Speaker 1: a course fit for those guys, it's this week at

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Speaker 1: the Honda, where you can see single digits under par

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Speaker 1: winning this golf tournament if the wind blows the way

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Speaker 1: it has in the past. Of the way, it's forecast

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Speaker 1: two this week.

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Speaker 3: Right and Grio, I mean Grio's two hundred and twenty six.

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Speaker 3: And again these are twenty twenty stats, so you can

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Speaker 3: look at farther samples. But Grio has been very unlucky

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Speaker 3: with the putter, and I think he's a really really.

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Speaker 1: Bad that ain't luck bro. I mean, I know he's

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Speaker 1: six year after year after year.

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Speaker 3: I know he's doing. Yeah, I know he's a bad butter,

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Speaker 3: but he's not He's not like dead last every single year.

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Speaker 1: So it's fourth from last last year.

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Speaker 3: He is a bad butter. So to be fair, he

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Speaker 3: was fourth from last year. That it is true. But

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Speaker 3: I still think on you know, Key and Gril might

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Speaker 3: be guys that you want don't want to bank on

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Speaker 3: as much on regression, but I do look for guys

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Speaker 3: who have cut it poorly in that being the main

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Speaker 3: reason they haven't had good results so far, but you

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Speaker 3: have to certainly, you know, consider some other other factors

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Speaker 3: as well.

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Speaker 1: This is the week if you're looking at those guys

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Speaker 1: and you say, hey, I want a guy who's a

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Speaker 1: ball striker. There's a reason why those guys are world

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Speaker 1: class players even though they're really bad butters. And the

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Speaker 1: reason is because they're really good ball strikers. And in

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Speaker 1: order to be ranked where you are in the world

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Speaker 1: on the top fifty player, Grillo's probably just outside the

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Speaker 1: top fifty out having in front of me right now,

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Speaker 1: Connor is probably somewhere close to that. I'm guessing if

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Speaker 1: I had to off the top of my head butt.

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Speaker 1: In fact, the matter, they're all pretty good players, and

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Speaker 1: if you're not a good butter, in order to be

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Speaker 1: ranked that highly, you better be striking it really well.

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Speaker 1: And those guys do it, and that's what's going to

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Speaker 1: help you this week.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, I mean it's absolutely ball striker paradise here and

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Speaker 3: they should have a big edge, and I think you

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Speaker 3: hit the nail on the head. You know, putting is

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Speaker 3: just not gonna matter as much relatively given the way

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Speaker 3: the course is set up and people aren't gonna hit

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Speaker 3: as many greens. So looking at the favorites, Tommy Fleetwood

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Speaker 3: comes in as a favorite over Brooks Keepka, who is

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Speaker 3: the second favorite. Then Ricky Fowler, Gary Woodland, Billy Horschel,

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Speaker 3: Justin Rose surprisingly kind of in that you know, four

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Speaker 3: to six range depending on what book you look at,

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Speaker 3: Victor Hovelin coming in steaming as well, Louis Houstazen, Sung

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Speaker 3: j M. Daniel Berger, younghan On, Shane Lowry, and then

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Speaker 3: a decent drop off to like Eric ben Ruyan who

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Speaker 3: played great last week.

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Speaker 1: Out of the top.

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Speaker 3: Guys, Jason, do you find any value potentially in some

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Speaker 3: matchup bets, some outright Steve men or in DFS, who

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Speaker 3: are you liking kind of out of this top tier?

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Speaker 1: Okay, so of the very top guys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: If we're looking basically at Fleetwood, Fowler and Kepka and

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Speaker 1: having to make a city, let's say, all right, I

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Speaker 1: want a guy to start at my DFS lineup. I

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Speaker 1: want a guy that you know, I'm betting on a favorite.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at matchups. Fleetwood's guy that stands out to me,

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Speaker 1: you know, Tommy Fleetwood's guy that has played this golf

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Speaker 1: course once. It was two years ago, finished in fourth place.

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Speaker 1: I just feel like this course is made for Tommy Fleetwood.

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Speaker 1: You gotta fight the ball, you go to keep it

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Speaker 1: under the wind. It's everything that he does really well.

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Speaker 1: He has to drive it well. He does that on

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Speaker 1: a regular basis. Ricky has played well here in the past.

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Speaker 1: He's going through some swing changes. I kind of liked

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Speaker 1: Ricky at the beginning of the week, and as the

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Speaker 1: week has progressed, I'm souring just a little bit on

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Speaker 1: Ricky Fowler Kepka. He just don't know what to expect

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Speaker 1: from Kepka on a weekly basis. I mean, if he's

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Speaker 1: motivated and feels like it, sure you can go out

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Speaker 1: here and win by four shots this week. If he's

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Speaker 1: not really feeling it and you know, kind of has

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Speaker 1: some other weekend plans, he might be slamming the trunk

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Speaker 1: on Friday, driving twenty minutes back to his house and

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Speaker 1: enjoy the weekend away from the golf. So I can't

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Speaker 1: say that I love could very much either, But Fleetwood's

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Speaker 1: guy from me out of at least those top guys

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Speaker 1: that I would go after. If you're saying, hey, I

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Speaker 1: want to build a DFS lineup, and I at least

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Speaker 1: want one of these top guys. But I think it's

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Speaker 1: a great week and we're going to build a lineup

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Speaker 1: here in a little bit. I think it's a great

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Speaker 1: week to leave some money on the table and to

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Speaker 1: go with some guys who are a little bit lower priced.

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Speaker 1: And I feel the same way with betting. If you

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Speaker 1: want to take a chance on a couple of guys

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Speaker 1: for top fives, top tens this week, go after it,

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Speaker 1: because I think that's how you're going to make some

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Speaker 1: money this week.

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Speaker 3: Okay, well, I'm excited to pick your brain on that.

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Speaker 3: A couple of thoughts on the high end. I will

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Speaker 3: absolutely echo the sentiment and love for Fleetwood this week.

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Speaker 3: I mean, talk about one of the best ball strikers

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Speaker 3: who just doesn't get it done putting That is Fleetwood

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Speaker 3: on a relative scale is he's been right there as

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Speaker 3: the overall top driver of the golf ball. He hits

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Speaker 3: the ball as straight as anyone, he loves to fight

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Speaker 3: the ball, and the bending markets absolutely love him. He's

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Speaker 3: a minus one thirty favorite and a couple plays versus

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Speaker 3: Brooks Koepka. He's a favorite versus literally everyone obviously is

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Speaker 3: the outright favorite, but we're talking you know, big numbers

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Speaker 3: minus one forty five versus Horsechel, who I actually love

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Speaker 3: this week, Horsel favorite over Victor hobblin minus one thirty.

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Speaker 3: So looking at the matchups, you know, there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of respect being given to Fleetwood, and I think it

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Speaker 3: makes a ton of sense. It's a great course for him,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's minus one thirty five or minus one

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Speaker 3: forty favorite versus Falor. I just think he is clearly

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Speaker 3: the you know, top of this field, just because of

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Speaker 3: the course spin in his current form, and you never

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Speaker 3: know with Brooks and I, you know, I just want

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Speaker 3: to see Ricky kind of get more comfortable with the

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Speaker 3: swing change before I'm investing heavily. And him the other

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Speaker 3: name that I do think is worth mentioning, and I'm curious.

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Speaker 3: I think he might he might be pretty chalky coming

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Speaker 3: off a win, and in general, normally players are not

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Speaker 3: chalky coming off the win. But Victor Hobland is another

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Speaker 3: guy I'm gonna want explore. And I think a lot

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Speaker 3: of these holes might end up having like one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty out approaches, and Victor Hobland is number one

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Speaker 3: in strokes game in that range, so I like him

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Speaker 3: quite a bit this week as well. What do you

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Speaker 3: think Hoblin's ownership is going to be. Do you think

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Speaker 3: people are going to flock to him after the win

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Speaker 3: or is it gonna be a similar situation that I've

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Speaker 3: seen the past where a lot of DFS guys actually

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Speaker 3: go away from the previous week's winner.

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Speaker 1: I am not great at predicting ownership. You're much better

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Speaker 1: at doing that than I am. I do think there

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Speaker 1: will be some some people on Hobland just based on

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Speaker 1: the fact that he's coming off a win. He's a

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Speaker 1: fun guy to root for it. He's a young guy,

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Speaker 1: he's got a big smile. I think that you look

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Speaker 1: at me and say, man, I want to be on

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Speaker 1: that guy. I want to be on that guy when

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Speaker 1: he's playing well because he's fun to root for. That

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Speaker 1: said matchup, bet, I've got Daniel Berger minus one oh

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Speaker 1: five over Victor Hobland already locked in. I love Burger

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Speaker 1: this week. As I wrote in my preview, this just

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Speaker 1: is a little microcosm. Take it for what it is.

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Speaker 1: But I wrote the story. I told the story a

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Speaker 1: couple of years ago when I was stil with ESPN,

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Speaker 1: I wrote a big profile on Burger. But when he

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Speaker 1: was thirteen years old, his father, Jay, who was he

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Speaker 1: was a very good tennis player. I mean he was

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Speaker 1: seventh ranked in the world at his best playing tennis,

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Speaker 1: but he wasn't a big golfer. And so he brought

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Speaker 1: his kid, who's thirteen years old, to the pro shop

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Speaker 1: of the Die Preserve and said, you know, can you

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Speaker 1: help him? He wants to be a golfer. And so

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Speaker 1: the assistant pro at the time, Matt Doyle, who had

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Speaker 1: been a touring professional for a little bit, brough him

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Speaker 1: out to the range hit balls for a few minutes,

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Speaker 1: and Doyle looked a him. He said, all right, hey,

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Speaker 1: you want to go play eighteen holes? Daniel Berger at

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Speaker 1: thirteen years old, said what are we playing for? This

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Speaker 1: guy's you know, twenty nine years old at the time

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Speaker 1: or whatever he was. And assistant pro looks at the

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Speaker 1: thirteen year old says, whatever you want. Man said, all right,

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Speaker 1: let's do twenty dollars clothes out is this? Bro said

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Speaker 1: are you good with that? Berger says, are you good

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Speaker 1: with losing to a thirteen year old? Now? Doyle beat

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Speaker 1: him that day, but Burger broke seventy, he made an

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Speaker 1: eagle and he won himself a swing instructor. So the

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Speaker 1: kids got moxie. And I use that story this week

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Speaker 1: because Daniel Berger grew up right down the road. He's

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Speaker 1: played this course a million times, and he's gonna have

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Speaker 1: a ton of family and friends in the gallery. What

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Speaker 1: that story tells us, even going back to his early

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Speaker 1: teenage years, is that Daniel Berger is a guy who

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Speaker 1: loves to show off. He loves being motivated, he loves

431
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:30,719
Speaker 1: being challenged, loves showing off. In his first time ever

432
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 1: playing this event, he lost in a playoff to Padrick Harrington.

433
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 1: Hasn't quite gotten back to that level. I just think

434
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 1: Berger is a guy that, first of all, he's ready

435
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 1: to win. I picked him to win Phoenix a few

436
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,719
Speaker 1: weeks ago. He finished in ninth that week, came back

437
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 1: with a fifth place finish at Pebble, hasn't played since then.

438
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 1: I just think he's gonna treat this like a fifth

439
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 1: major for him, and I expect him to play really

440
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 1: good golf this week.

441
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 3: I love that story. Any kid who wants to bet

442
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 3: on himself, that's perfect and it is a great setting

443
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 3: for him. And Berger started to turn around he bouts

444
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 3: some injuries throughout his career. You know, he had a

445
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 3: really really good start to his career, and you know,

446
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 3: he's kind of I wouldn't say fallen off, but he's

447
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 3: just had to deal with these injuries. And you know,

448
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 3: a lot of new young guns have come up, and

449
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 3: just golf is in such a good place now that

450
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 3: I think he's getting a little overlooked, and I think

451
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 3: he senses that. And this is a really good opportunity

452
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 3: where we don't have all the best players in the world.

453
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 3: We have a decent field. You know, it's not star studded,

454
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: but I do think there's a lot of good players

455
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 3: in this field, and I think Burger can definitely go

456
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 3: out and win. And this is certainly a setting, like

457
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,679
Speaker 3: you mentioned, grew up close to here, and I think

458
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 3: this is a good course room, and he's showing some

459
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 3: pretty good form. I'm excited about how Berger's playing. Finished

460
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 3: well at the Pro Am Pebble Beach at fifth place,

461
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 3: finish there, ninth at the Waste Management, played well at

462
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 3: the American Express. So some good recent form and a

463
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 3: really good article that you did over at the Action Network.

464
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 3: When we start diving below, guys like Berger. When we

465
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 3: start getting into the more long shots, the chief guys

466
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 3: in BFS, you mentioned that you think there could be

467
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: some value to here. What guys are you hiding.

468
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start rattling off names because I've got a

469
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 1: bunch of them this week. Start the list starts with

470
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 1: Sam Ryder. He was t. Three in Puerto Rico last week.

471
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: I've been on this guy. If you look at the

472
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 1: all around ranking from last year, and if you're not

473
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 1: familiar with the all around, with the all round is

474
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: is it's exactly what it sounds like. And they take

475
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 1: basically the most important statistics, put them all together, basically

476
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: come up with a combined ranking for all of them.

477
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 1: Sam Ryder was top twenty. The other nineteen in the

478
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: top twenty were basically superstars. It was basically all the

479
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: guys you would think would be in the top twenty.

480
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: It's Rory, it's rom it's DJ, it's Brooks, and Sam

481
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: Ryder was up there. Sam Ryder basically, what that tells

482
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: you is he doesn't do anything terribly and I love

483
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 1: the fact that he does everything well. I see him

484
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: very much like Taylor Gooch, which is gonna be a

485
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 1: weird comparison, but last year on the West Coasting, Taylor

486
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 1: Gootch went out and had a top five finish at

487
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: I believe it was Tory and then next week, or

488
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: maybe it was another the Amex and thenry In any case,

489
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: back to back top five finishes sort of out of

490
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: nowhere and kind of got onto our radar screen. Ryder

491
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: was T three last week. I would not be surprised

492
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 1: for another top five finish from him this week. I'm

493
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: gonna start rattling off names. Bo Hogue is a guy

494
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: who's got a connection to Jack Nicholas. Jack Nicholas connection

495
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: to this event. I just feel like Hoag's got a

496
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: little narrative there. Also played wellt with Sony. I think

497
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: there's a little correlation between the Sony A tight, wind

498
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: blown track and this one. This week, Tom Hogy, we

499
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 1: found that the metrics you want this week are strokes gained,

500
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: approach shots, and scrambling because you're gonna miss with some

501
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: of those approach shots. Tom Hogy has been doing both

502
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 1: of those things very well for the last couple of months.

503
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: Even though he doesn't play great in Florida, Hogy could

504
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: be good. Kh Lee is a guy who played really

505
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 1: well here Last year, I believe he was in the

506
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 1: final pairing on Saturday. Didn't quite get it done, but

507
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: he's a guy that should play well. And then you've

508
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: got the older guys. Last year Peter, we had VJ.

509
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 1: Singing and Jim Furick both in the top ten. I

510
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: don't mind going back to the well on Feuork. I

511
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: think this could be a good fud course if you

512
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 1: want some other forty something type guys. Brian Gay, Brian Stewart.

513
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: I think those guys can play well. This is the

514
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 1: course where you don't need to be a twenty three

515
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 1: year old who hits at three to twenty five in

516
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: the air to succeed at PG National. It's gonna be

517
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: guys who kind of plod their way around and make

518
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 1: a lot of pars, almost like a US Open type

519
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 1: of setup, or at least type of difficulty level. And

520
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 1: I think some of those guys can play well. So

521
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 1: I throw a lot of names at you there. You

522
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: like any of those guys or who else do you have?

523
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 3: Yeah? Furick is an interesting one. He is leading the

524
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 3: tour and driving accuracy not surprising. And I and this

525
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: is just again we're looking at twenty twenty stats. It's

526
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: still a relatively small sample, but we all know Yorick

527
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 3: is about as straight as they come. You know, he's

528
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 3: just always been an accuracy player, right, and you know

529
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: in terms of g I R, he's right there. I mean,

530
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 3: I think actually in twenty twenty might be first in

531
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: overall JR. You know, it changes depending you know what

532
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: yardage are coming in from an approach. This is a

533
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: good course for him, you know, if Ork's not gonna

534
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 3: go out there very often and just light it up

535
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 3: and make a bunch of birdis. Now. I know he

536
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 3: has that fifty nine, but in general, you know, you're

537
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 3: looking at around of like fifteen cards, two birdies and

538
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 3: a boat, and at this course, I think that sets

539
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: up pretty darn well. So I'm I'm high on Furick

540
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 3: as a cash game play. You know, do I think

541
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 3: he can win? Probably not, But I think he's very

542
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: likely to make the cut and this is a perfect

543
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 3: course for him. So I like that call quite a bit.

544
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 3: Rider I think is a very good call. I do

545
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 3: think he'll catch some ownership in the lower range. You know,

546
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 3: Kyle Stanley played well. He's someone that I'm interested in.

547
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: He's had some pretty bad form overall, but played well

548
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 3: the Puerto Rico Open as well, and I think he

549
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 3: can carry that good form into this event. Keith Mitchell

550
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 3: is one guy that I'm tempted by, but I probably

551
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,479
Speaker 3: won't play. You know, he talked a lot about how

552
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 3: he needs to be in Permuda greens and he loves

553
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 3: playing in these type of setups, So that's one that

554
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 3: I'm looking at a little bit, and I'm still torn.

555
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,719
Speaker 3: Bud Colly is another guy that I think Bud name

556
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 3: a lot this week. Yeah, Bud Colley might catch ownership

557
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: as well. So I think there's a lot of guys

558
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 3: kind of been this lower tier. Von Taylor in terms

559
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 3: of accuracy, this guy is right there, I mean in

560
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 3: terms of driving actually, I think, you know, he'll always

561
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 3: be near the top ten off the tee and certainly

562
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: can hit a lot of greens. So I like Von

563
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: Taylor as well, and I think there's a lot of

564
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 3: interesting guys that you can kind of go in this range.

565
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 3: You know. Corey Connors is one that I think is

566
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 3: another guy. He's a little bit different tier, but I

567
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 3: like him quite a bit as well. So there's a

568
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 3: lot of different ways you can go, and I think

569
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 3: the one nice thing, especially in DFS, as we'll see

570
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 3: quite a bit of different combinations, just because there are

571
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 3: compelling guys kind of in the middle to the bottom

572
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 3: part of this field. Do you have a favorite bet

573
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 3: this week?

574
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: So so, first of all, I feel like, more so

575
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: this week than any week we've had so far, there's

576
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 1: going to be differentiation.

577
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 3: This week.

578
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: You are going to see a lot of guys in

579
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 1: the five, six, seven, eight percent owned range, where whereas

580
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: in other weeks it might be weighted more where Okay,

581
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: you got your twenty percenters and you got your two

582
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: percenters and there wasn't much in between. I think you're

583
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of different guys. So I mentioned

584
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: earlier that I've got I've got Burger over Hoblin. That's

585
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: probably not my favorite. I give you my two other

586
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: matchups I bet so far, Miiliano Grillo, who we've talked

587
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: about basically even money over Ian Poultz. Not that I

588
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: hate Poltz here, but I really like Rio. I just

589
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: think that this should be a good course for him.

590
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: And Matthew Neismith, who's played some of his better golf

591
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: on Bermuda Greens. Plus one oh five he gets Harold

592
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: Varner the third. We all love Harold, but I just

593
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: don't know this is the right course for Varner to

594
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: succeed here. And Nieman's been playing some good golf lately.

595
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 3: I like it. My favorite bet goes. It sounds like

596
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 3: I'm all, you know, I'm saying two different things here,

597
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 3: but hear me out. You can find this at even money.

598
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: It's it's starting to move closer to a you know,

599
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: a pick him where you're gonna play juice on both sides.

600
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 3: But I originally found this at even money. I think

601
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 3: there's still a couple of books that might have this.

602
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 3: But I'm taking Young huan On over Victor Hoblin at

603
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: even money, and I know I endorsed Victor Hoblin. I

604
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 3: think he is still a very strong play. But I

605
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 3: feel like the range of outcomes for Hoblind off the

606
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: wind is pretty wide. I feel like off a win

607
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: and all the things that come with that, you know,

608
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 3: is he more likely to miss the cut? Maybe? And

609
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: maybe he's more likely, you know, if you look at

610
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: these guys, did you know to sustain this great play

611
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 3: and being near to the top. So I think the

612
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 3: range of outcomes is more wide for Holin. I expect

613
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 3: Young Han Han to play really well here, so I

614
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 3: like that and even money, I think they're both really

615
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 3: really strong plays and the line has started to move already,

616
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 3: which which tells me that I'm getting some good signal there.

617
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 3: So Young hun On over Victor Hoblin is one of

618
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 3: my favorite overall bets, and it's interesting I think the

619
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 3: markets are pricing that kind of variability for Hopton as well,

620
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: because you know, someone like Billy Horsechel is a minus

621
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 3: one thirty favorite fors Hoblin. What are your thoughts on that,

622
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 3: because it's something that I've been thinking a lot about

623
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 3: and just trying to understand kind of the range of

624
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: outcomes of some of these golfers. Another classic example in

625
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: this field would be brooks Kepka, Right, brooks Kepka sometimes

626
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 3: just doesn't care, you know, maybe missus the counter doesn't

627
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: play well, or maybe he really cares this week and

628
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 3: he's dialed in and he wins by four. So that

629
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 3: would be another guy that I think, you know, if

630
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 3: you look at the matchups, he's not getting as much love.

631
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 3: So that I think is that range of outcomes. Did

632
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 3: you buy that solo?

633
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: Yeah? I buy that. So, first of all, I'm looking

634
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: at matchups. I am basically looking at guys that are

635
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: even money or better. I just I have trouble. We

636
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: all know the sort of the vagaries of day to

637
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: day and week to week golf, and that anybody can

638
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: beat anybody at any given time. And so a guy

639
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: that's minus one thirty, minus one forty, even though you

640
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: look at him and say, well, he should beat the

641
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: other guy, that's why he's favored, I just have a

642
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: hard time laying the juice for a guy that's such

643
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: a heavy favorite unless I just say, look, I know something,

644
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: I know something about the other guy he's playing against,

645
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: where I just know that he's not gonna have a

646
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: good week and it's easy money there, but it doesn't

647
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: happen very often. So I'm looking at guys that are

648
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: basically even money or close to it or plus money,

649
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 1: and so that at least kind of whittles down who

650
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: you're looking at for the week. And I think that

651
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: starts to make your decisions a little bit easier. I mean,

652
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: it's so easy, you know, we all know. You know, hey,

653
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: the public looks through on NBA games every night and

654
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 1: they say, well, the Lakers are playing the Knicks. Lakers

655
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: are good, the Knicks Lakers should beat him by a lot.

656
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Lakers. Sometimes that works a lot of

657
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: times that doesn't work. I mean, the odds makers know

658
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: what they're doing, so I look at it from the

659
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: same perspective in golf. But you can have those guys

660
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: who are the underdogs. I mean, you know, we see

661
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: at the match play every year that just because one

662
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: guy is ranked higher than another doesn't mean really anything

663
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: when they're playing against each other, whether they know they're

664
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: playing against each other or not.

665
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 3: Right, No, I think that's really smart. In general, you

666
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 3: want to be looking for the underdogs and matchups. Getting

667
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 3: that plus money is huge. There's a lot of variants

668
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 3: in golf, especially in a small sample, which one golf

669
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: tournament is, especially when there's a cut. So I agree

670
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 3: with that, and to your point betting favorites, I try

671
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 3: not to bet too many. I mean, obviously I'm going

672
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 3: to if there's a big discrepancy, and you know, just

673
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 3: looking at different pricing and trying to figure out what

674
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 3: my true price is, I'm gonna look for discrepancies. But

675
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 3: in general that leads to more, you know, taking of dogs.

676
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 3: But when I'm taking favorites or even big favorites, it's

677
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: it's sometimes you know, I'm just in love with the guy,

678
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 3: But more often it's shorting the other player, which I

679
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 3: think is a lot of the best bets that you

680
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 3: can find, or when you have conviction about someone playing poorly.

681
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 3: So that's another way to look at it, you know,

682
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 3: and not always just saying, hey, I love this guy.

683
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 3: Think about what players you might be short coming into

684
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: a week. So you know, someone who's erratic off the tee,

685
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 3: who's a great putter, who might be worse on approach.

686
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 3: That might be the type of player that you're you're

687
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: looking to short this week. Louijus stays in with someone

688
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 3: I was initially looking at, who obviously is a great player.

689
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 3: He's putted really well so far, but I'm not sure

690
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 3: I can pull the trick. I'm shorty Louis, but that

691
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 3: would be the type of guy I would be looking

692
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 3: too short at this tournament.

693
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: We got, we got to a lot of my biggest

694
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: fade this week, and if I can find a good

695
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: matchup against him, I don't know why I haven't bet

696
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,239
Speaker 1: against him yet. But Justin Rose, Justin Rose is doing

697
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: something weird with his schedule. And I said this two

698
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: weeks ago when we played LA for the first time

699
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 1: in a few years. And he's got a decent track

700
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,239
Speaker 1: record in LA, but there's a reason he stopped playing there,

701
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: and I don't know exactly what that reason was. I'm

702
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 1: going to try to track down Justin at some point

703
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: this week and talk to him about his schedule and

704
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: why he's kind of up in some stuff around. But

705
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 1: he's clearly looking for something. He played LA after missing

706
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: a few years, made the cut and fished in fifty

707
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: sixth place. So if you faded him that week, he

708
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: probably did pretty well. And he's my biggest fade this

709
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 1: week as well. He's twenty to one right now, he's

710
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 1: number five on the board. You look at him and say,

711
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: Justin Rose, he's major champion, he's gold medal winner. He's

712
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: a great player, and he has a great record. He's

713
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: got three top five finishes here at PGA National twenty ten, twelve,

714
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: and I believe in thirteen and then he only came

715
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: back one more time in twenty fifteen, and since then

716
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 1: he has not been back here. And you look at

717
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: it and you say, okay, He's played well here, so

718
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: we obviously can do it. But to me, the bigger

719
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: signal is he stopped playing here? And why did he

720
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: stop playing here? If he played well here, Well, there's

721
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: something about this place that he certainly doesn't like. Whether

722
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: it was the schedule, whether it was the course itself,

723
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 1: I don't know. I want to go talk to him

724
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: and find out that said to me, that throws me off.

725
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: The scent of Justin Rose, the fact that he stopped

726
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: playing here. And it's one thing to stop playing here

727
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: after you missed the cut every year and say, look,

728
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: I give up, I just don't play that course. Well,

729
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: it's another thing when you finish in the top five

730
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 1: three out of four years and then say I'm not

731
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: coming back boy. That is a very strong signal that

732
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: there's something very wrong for you at this golf course.

733
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 1: And it's also a strong signal that he comes back

734
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 1: to this golf course this year and that he's trying

735
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 1: to change something around. He's trying to find something right now,

736
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: and I don't know that he's going to find it

737
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 1: this week.

738
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 3: All right. That's interesting. Woodland the favorite fowler, big favorite,

739
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 3: and he's a coin flip of what I'm seeing anyways slowly.

740
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 3: So that is an interesting short and a nice way

741
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 3: to think about betting on golf is finding those guys

742
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 3: that you're short. We're doing the opposite. We're gonna talk

743
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: about guys that we love. You listed a lot of names.

744
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: I talked about a lot of guys that I like.

745
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 3: We're going to make a draft Kings lineup this week.

746
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 3: A lot of big tournaments over there should be a

747
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 3: lot of fun. Jason, do you want to pick first

748
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:53,720
Speaker 3: or second?

749
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 1: I will defer to the second half and let you

750
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: have the first pick this week, Peter, you deserve it, Okay.

751
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go right in the middle. I'm gonna go

752
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 3: with young Hanahan, who I think is going to be

753
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 3: a staple for me this week. The putting has really

754
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 3: let him down, but man, the boss striking is elite,

755
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: and I think it's a really good course fit for him.

756
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 3: I like gunghnand at eighty eight hundred, all right, I.

757
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 1: Got zero problem with that. I have a feeling we're

758
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 1: gonna load up on a bunch of like sort of

759
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: mid to upper mid tier guys. I think there's a

760
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 1: lot of guys in this range that we like that

761
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: are kind of not quite at the top, but certainly,

762
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if we'd call him middle either.

763
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: And my guys, the guy i'm picking a win, I

764
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: can't pick him a win and not pick him in

765
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: our lineup. So Daniel Berger at one hundred dollars more

766
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: eighty nine hundred, Welcome to the line up, Daniel. I

767
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 1: love it.

768
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 3: I love where we're going. I think we're on the

769
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: same plage. We're gonna build a balanced team here relatively.

770
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Milliano Grio. He fits the same mold,

771
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 3: great ball striker coming off a good finish at the

772
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 3: Puerto Rico after some really bad golf farmers waste genesis

773
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 3: mimis to cut off three, but had some decent form

774
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 3: before that, and this is a really good course for him.

775
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 3: I like that he finished well at the Puerto Rico.

776
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 3: And you know, like you said, bad putters, and I said,

777
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 3: especially good ball strikers or bad putters, And that definitively

778
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 3: is a million grill.

779
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 1: I mean, if we're gonna keep this trend going, might

780
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 1: as well keep it really going. I'll go Corey Connors

781
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: at eighty two hundred and keep the the trend of

782
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 1: ball strikers who aren't necessarily great butters could succeed on

783
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 1: this golf course. This week, Corey Connor's eighty two hundred.

784
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: Okay, now I need to think about where we want

785
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 3: to go for you. I don't want to leave you in.

786
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 1: Like, don't no, you can leave. You can leave me

787
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: with almost nothing.

788
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 3: I'm debating a couple guys here. All right, I'm gonna

789
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 3: give you the choice here, Bud Colly, or do we

790
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 3: want to go super conservative with Jim Furick.

791
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 1: I actually like Fuork this week, Okay, laid well here

792
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 1: last year. I just think it's a good Fuord course.

793
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 3: Oh, it's a great Fiorit course. I mean you're gonna

794
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 3: take Fuoric, this is the time to take him, So

795
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: I'm fine with that. We'll go with Fierick, which leads

796
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 3: nine thousand, Ben Ryan's nine k, and then we got

797
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,879
Speaker 3: a drop off. But leaving money is certainly not an

798
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 3: issue here.

799
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 1: I can tell you I'm gonna leave. I'm gonna leave

800
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 1: a bunch of money on the table because I'm going

801
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: down this list and there's not a whole lot of

802
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: guys I like. Until I get to a guy at

803
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: seventy six hundred.

804
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 3: Do you want me to drop down from Furick because

805
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 3: there are some guys that are nice, like sung Jay

806
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: of Horsell. Well, let me.

807
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: You can maybe get all right. So I still tell

808
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:23,399
Speaker 1: you I was gonna I was gonna go Russell Knox.

809
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: I was gonna go Russell Knox at seventy six hundred,

810
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: which leaves fourteen hundred on the board, leaves a lot

811
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 1: of money out there. Russell Knox has played this course well,

812
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 1: it's been a couple of years, but he's got second

813
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 1: in the third place finish. Here another guy who fights

814
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: his ball under the wind. We're basically when we pick

815
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,240
Speaker 1: guys like we've picked with On, with Grio, with Connors,

816
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: with Knox, we're basically hoping the wind is gonna blow

817
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 1: all week because these guys are ball strikers, and these

818
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 1: guys are guys that cannot they can fight it pretty low.

819
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the knocks call. If we do that

820
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 3: and go away from Furick, we could go up to

821
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 3: someone like Kevin'sman. We could go all the way up

822
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 3: to Ian Poulter. Do you have any love free and Poulter?

823
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 3: This week?

824
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: I like Fuork better than those guys.

825
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 3: Okay, honestly, all right, well let's leave a lot of

826
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 3: money on the table. This is a very lineup that

827
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: we have here, but I think it's a theme that

828
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 3: we have going with some really good ball strikers. Daniel Berger,

829
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 3: Young hunt On Millionogrio, Corey Connors, Russell Knox and Jim Furick.

830
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 1: Oh, you know, we're gonna find out. We're gonna find

831
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: out how many people listen to pod and tail us

832
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: because you're not coming up with this lineup leaving fourteen

833
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: hundred on the table on your own just saying I

834
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: don't feel like filling out my salary. I mean, it's

835
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 1: one thing to leave a couple hundred on the table,

836
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,799
Speaker 1: leaven fourteen hundred on the table. I'm gonna see how

837
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: many other very not just similar, very same lineups to

838
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,319
Speaker 1: ours there are out there. And uh, and those guys,

839
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: I say shout out to you guys, because I know

840
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: you're listening. Absolutely, fourteen hundred on the table, these six guys,

841
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:52,280
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.

842
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 3: And it's an easy change. If you're on upgrade, one guy,

843
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 3: you got some some money to spend to upgrade, So

844
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: hopefully that was helpful. Jason and or your time down

845
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 3: in Florida obviously your home, but you got a lot

846
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: of travel with all these tournaments and of course the

847
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 3: THEFS Open. I hope you play well there. Good luck

848
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 3: to all the listeners. Make sure you download and listen

849
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 3: on Spotify and we'll catch you guys to caxt we're

850
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 3: finished talking.