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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Welcome in everybody to

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros. It's week two already, can you believe it?

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Speaker 1: And it's time for a look ahead. With my good

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Speaker 1: friends Matthew Friedman and Pat Fitzmorris, we're going to take

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Speaker 1: a look at the early line. Still a lot of

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Speaker 1: football to digest, a lot of injuries. It was a

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Speaker 1: busy week one, I'm sure, as the gentleman will attest

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Speaker 1: to you, but we're going to do our best to

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Speaker 1: break it all down for you and see what it

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Speaker 1: means for Week two in the NFL as we look

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Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros. Gentlemen, let's kick things off here with

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football in a prime matchup, so to speak.

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Speaker 1: To coin a phrase, Jeff Bezos probably created this one

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Speaker 1: in a lab or in his giant bald head. And

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Speaker 1: I can say that because I've got a giant bald head.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs minus three and a half. They are

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Speaker 1: the favorites in this one. Probably not surprising after Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes's great performance. Matt, what are your thoughts about this

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Speaker 1: early line here with Kansas City being the favorites.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I hate that it's at three and a

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Speaker 2: half instead of three. The look ahead was three. That's

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Speaker 2: where I grabbed it because I just sort of anticipated

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Speaker 2: that the Chiefs were going to crush given the matchup

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Speaker 2: they had last week, and that's certainly what happened. They

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Speaker 2: looked great. You know, Patrick Mahomes was thirty at thirty nine,

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Speaker 2: five touchdowns, zero interceptions, three hundred and sixty yards passing.

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Speaker 2: It looked effortless for the Chiefs, scoring forty four points,

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Speaker 2: and it feels like they could have scored more. You know,

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Speaker 2: they had the entire offseason to move on from Tyreek Killen.

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Speaker 2: You build their offense, and they definitely did that. The

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Speaker 2: Chargers last week without number one cornerback j C. Jackson.

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Speaker 2: It's uncertain if he's going to return for Week two,

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Speaker 2: so that already gives them a little bit of a disadvantage.

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Speaker 2: I had this closer to five and a half or six,

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Speaker 2: so I think there's still value betting it at three

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Speaker 2: and a half, and I don't know, I would anticipate

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Speaker 2: that if it moves a direction, it's not going down

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Speaker 2: to three if it's going to move closer to six.

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Speaker 2: So I still think if you're looking to bet, you

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Speaker 2: would probably bet this now. But I'm just anchoring to

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Speaker 2: the three and thinking like, yeah, if you haven't bet

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Speaker 2: it now, maybe you don't bet it. But if you

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Speaker 2: want action on this game, and this feels like the

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Speaker 2: kind of game you do want action on. Probably bet

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Speaker 2: it now and I'm going Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Well, you can get the three in some spots bet

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Speaker 1: MGM and DraftKings. As of us recording this had it

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Speaker 1: at three. Some other sites had it at three and

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Speaker 1: a half pat with a Keenan Allen injury to potentially lingering.

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Speaker 1: Does this feel like maybe just maybe Freeman's on the

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Speaker 1: right here with maybe there should be a bigger number

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Speaker 1: to start?

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Speaker 3: Oh? I think so.

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Speaker 4: I initially predicted it as a five point game, and

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Speaker 4: I think there's value to betting the Chiefs. I mean,

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Speaker 4: Andy Reid has the deed to the AFC West. He

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Speaker 4: keeps it in the glove compartment of his Ford Bronco,

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Speaker 4: and I don't really know that he drives a Ford Bronco,

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Speaker 4: but it just seems like something that Andy Reid would drive.

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Speaker 3: He owns this division.

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Speaker 4: They're the class of the division, and I think there's

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Speaker 4: a little bit of value here because people want the

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Speaker 4: Chargers to be that upstart darling in this division to

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Speaker 4: maybe knock off the Chiefs and become the new Kings

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Speaker 4: of the division. But I don't know if they're there

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Speaker 4: yet I mean, they do have an attractive roster, They

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Speaker 4: do have some star power on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 4: I mean that the Khalil mack Bosa combo on the

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Speaker 4: edge is just fearsome. But I still think you run

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Speaker 4: up against the Andy Reid play calling, and that's such

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Speaker 4: a big edge for the Chiefs here, So I think

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Speaker 4: there's value.

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Speaker 3: Boy, they're right on it.

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Speaker 4: With the total though, fifty four and a half, and

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Speaker 4: there were fifty four points scored in both Chiefs Chargers

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Speaker 4: games last year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And to follow up on what Fitz said there

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Speaker 2: about Andy Reid owning the division thirty three and twenty

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Speaker 2: against the spread with the Chiefs against the AFC West,

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Speaker 2: So Andy Reid definitely has owned the division outright and

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Speaker 2: against the spread. And then Andy Reid, there's something about

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Speaker 2: this guy, like, you know, everyone knows Andy Reid off

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Speaker 2: of a bye, but I don't think it's just Andy

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Speaker 2: Reid off of a buye. It's like Andy Reid off

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Speaker 2: of the offseason, Like the first month of the season,

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs absolutely crushed. They're twenty four and thirteen against

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Speaker 2: the spread in weeks one through four when his time

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Speaker 2: with the Chiefs, and then Patrick Mahomes in primetime thirteen

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Speaker 2: eight and one against the spread, and that's including the postseason. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: pretty good stats there.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to two teams that are coming off victories

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Speaker 1: in Week one, the Baltimore Ravens four point favorites over

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Speaker 1: Miami traveling to Baltimore. Fans will start with you with

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Speaker 1: this one. I know certainly the JK. Dobbins out yesterday

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Speaker 1: was something that was unfortunate for the the Baltimore Ravens offense,

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Speaker 1: but Miami looking pretty solid in their debut against the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: How do you feel about this line here as you're

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Speaker 1: looking at it to.

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Speaker 4: Begin Yeah, I think there's maybe just a little bit

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Speaker 4: of value here with the Ravens. Initially pegged this one

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Speaker 4: as Ravens by five, and like the Ravens just have

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Speaker 4: their act together early in the season most years. Last

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Speaker 4: year was a little strange because they had the Marcus

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Speaker 4: Peters injury and the Dobbins and Gus Edwards injuries so early,

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Speaker 4: right before the start of the season. I feel like

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Speaker 4: that kind of knocked the organization off its moorings last year.

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Speaker 4: But generally they come out hot and we saw that again.

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Speaker 4: They handled the Jets very easily in Week one. I

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Speaker 4: think they're going to be the Dolphins pretty easily too.

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Speaker 4: And the Dolphins are, you know, probably flying high after

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Speaker 4: that win over the division rival Patriots at home. Now

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Speaker 4: they have to go on the road in a tough environment.

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Speaker 4: So I'm inclined to give the points here, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Matt, Same thing to you with Baltimore. Are the

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins maybe enjoying a little bit too much of

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Speaker 1: this first victory? And is this going to be a

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Speaker 1: wake up call in Baltimore?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. I'm not taking a position on this game.

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Speaker 2: I have it slightly towards the Ravens, but I think

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Speaker 2: for the number that we're seeing in the market is

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Speaker 2: about right. One thing I should say is I think

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Speaker 2: it was surprising that Marcus Peters did not play yesterday,

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Speaker 2: you know, so we need to monitor him. Kyle Fuller

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Speaker 2: another cornerback for the Ravens, he exited the game with

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Speaker 2: a knee injury. Left tacker tackled Ronnie Stanley didn't play,

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Speaker 2: and then the guy who was filling in for him,

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Speaker 2: they're swing tackle Juwan James. He left the game with

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Speaker 2: the torn achilles. He's out for the year and so

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Speaker 2: these are injuries that we need to monitor, and I

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Speaker 2: don't know if they're actually baked into the line yet.

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Speaker 2: So even though I think right now there's a little

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Speaker 2: bit of value on the Ravens or if I had

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Speaker 2: to bet on it, i'd lean towards the Ravens, I

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Speaker 2: could actually see the line moving towards the Dolphins because

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Speaker 2: of these injury issues.

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Speaker 1: Joe Flacco had seven hundred and forty three pass attempts

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Speaker 1: in the game, I believe. On Sunday, I think that's

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Speaker 1: a correct stat I believe that's from NFL dot Com.

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Speaker 1: The New York Jets still lost. They are six and

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Speaker 1: a half point dogs in this contest on the road

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Speaker 1: against Cleveland. That feels right. But do we think that

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Speaker 1: that is a little too much credit for this Browns team?

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts, Matthew Freeman.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a little bit of value on the

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Speaker 2: Jets here in terms of how I'm making this line,

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Speaker 2: but like, I'm not betting it at all because they're

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Speaker 2: just a team I don't want to be invested in,

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Speaker 2: Like I think, organizationally, there are a lot of things

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Speaker 2: wrong the offense under Joe Flacco. I know they had

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Speaker 2: some yards, but it was all sort of trash production, Like.

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Speaker 1: After seven hundred pass attempts, I want to say, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get some yards? Yeah, like averages.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm not factoring that into things really at all.

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Speaker 2: So I show slight value on the Jets, but like

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Speaker 2: not enough to make me bet on it.

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Speaker 1: How about you Pat, same things life value, but not

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Speaker 1: enough to move the needle exactly it.

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Speaker 4: I might be tempted to play this one, Like I

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Speaker 4: feel like this line should be smaller, like.

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Speaker 3: Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco.

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Speaker 4: I know Joe Flacco doesn't get any respect, but like

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Speaker 4: he's going up against Jacoby Brissett. Here is it that

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Speaker 4: people the the in the setting of the lines, Like

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Speaker 4: there's that much more respect for Kevin Stefanski than for

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Speaker 4: Sala Like I don't really understand this line. It seems

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Speaker 4: like it should be more like four and a half

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Speaker 4: or five. So yeah, I'm inclined to maybe put a

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Speaker 4: small wager down on the Jets this week, but I

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Speaker 4: am not going heavily. Yeah, I don't want to be

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Speaker 4: heavily in on this game. Uh, you know, I'll do

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Speaker 4: more of a toe in it than Friedman, but not much.

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Speaker 2: You know, I will say, to follow up on Fitz's point,

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Speaker 2: Kevin Stefanski is one and eleven against the spread versus division,

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Speaker 2: and I'm sorry it's not division. No wrong, sat here

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Speaker 2: looking at seven.

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Speaker 1: Because I'm for to make up stats on the sho

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Speaker 1: I Lackoll had seven hundred and forty two pass steps.

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Speaker 1: That is a fact.

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Speaker 2: I got it. I got it. That was I'm looking at.

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Speaker 2: I have so many things in my spreadsheet. Yes, I've

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Speaker 2: got the right one now. Seven and fourteen. Stefanski is

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Speaker 2: seven and fourteen against the spread as a favorite in

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Speaker 2: the regular season. So like, this is a guy that

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Speaker 2: you generally do want to bet against when he is

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Speaker 2: laying points.

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Speaker 1: How dare you try to steal my bit of making

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Speaker 1: up stats? How dare you? All right, let's go to

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Speaker 1: Washington at Detroit. Detroit showed grit. I think we all

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Speaker 1: could agree on that. Of course, they came up short

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Speaker 1: because they're the Lions. That's typically what happens. But we

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Speaker 1: have the Washington commanders traveling to Detroit. They're coming off

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Speaker 1: a win in Detroit's coming off a loss. Detroit is

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Speaker 1: one and a half point favorites in this one at home. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: they're not giving Detroit a lot of respect. Matt, Do

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Speaker 1: you think that that's wrong?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I do. And I'm a little bit angry at

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Speaker 2: myself for not betting this beforehand, because I do my

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Speaker 2: projections beforehand on Saturday night, and you know, kind of

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Speaker 2: look at the look ahead market to see where there's value,

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Speaker 2: and Washington was favored by one point on the look

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Speaker 2: ahead line, and I had this projected as Detroit it

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Speaker 2: should be favored, you know, like one and a half

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Speaker 2: or one point twenty five, and so I was thinking,

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Speaker 2: you know, but it's just across the one or just

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Speaker 2: across zero, like it doesn't matter all that much, even

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Speaker 2: though you'd be getting a couple points of value. Of course,

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Speaker 2: I didn't bet it, and then it flipped after and

247
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Speaker 2: so yeah, I mean, I think this line is about

248
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Speaker 2: where it should be. I think Detroit is a really

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Speaker 2: good team, but you know, I don't think there's any

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Speaker 2: value here.

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Speaker 1: All right, fits when you look at this one, I mean,

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Speaker 1: what you saw out of that Detroit offense I think

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Speaker 1: was incredibly encouraging. I think the commander has played well,

254
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Speaker 1: but it is the Jaguars after all. Maybe we're giving

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Speaker 1: the commanders too much credit here with this.

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Speaker 4: Line, maybe, but like I'm not ready to do annoying

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Speaker 4: the Lions as like the upstart team in the NFL

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Speaker 4: just yet, so to me, it seems like a pretty

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Speaker 4: fair line. I'm more interested by the total of forty

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Speaker 4: six and a half, which seems like it's a little

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Speaker 4: in for a Commander's Lions game. Like if you told

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Speaker 4: me before week one that you were going to get

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Speaker 4: a forty six and a half point total on Commanders

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Speaker 4: Lions in Week two, I would have like slammed the

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Speaker 4: under right there. So you know, I'm still leaning that way.

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Speaker 4: I know the Lions had a very nice and I

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Speaker 4: think they've done that two week ones in a row

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Speaker 4: where they got down big and then like fought back

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Speaker 4: furiously and piled up yardage and points like after they

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Speaker 4: were down more multiple scores. So yeah, like as well

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Speaker 4: as their offense ran in week one, I don't know

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Speaker 4: that that's going to be a you know, default setting

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Speaker 4: every week for.

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Speaker 1: Them, all right, default setting for the Colts. They neither

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Speaker 1: won nor lost. They had a tie gross against the

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. They are four point favorites

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Speaker 1: in this one. The numbers forty five and a half. Pat,

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Speaker 1: when you're looking at this, does anything tempt you to

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Speaker 1: get in on early? Boy?

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Speaker 4: You know, if the Colts are gonna look for motivation

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Speaker 4: in this one, they had that brutal twenty six to

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Speaker 4: eleven loss to the Jaguars in the final week of

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Speaker 4: the regular season last year, So you know, I have

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Speaker 4: Jacksonville as like a three point underdog in this one.

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Speaker 4: So maybe there's a little value on the Jaguars, But

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Colts have got to be maybe they're

287
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Speaker 4: just not good enough to, you know, take advantage of

288
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Speaker 4: a revenge game narrative. We certainly didn't expect them to

289
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Speaker 4: lay this sort of egg they did in week one.

290
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Speaker 4: So you know, you could either go with the value

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Speaker 4: with Jacksonville or the revenge game narrative with indiam app

292
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Speaker 4: to just.

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Speaker 3: Stay away, all right?

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Speaker 1: Do the Colts exercise the demons in a big way

295
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Speaker 1: potentially this weekend, Matt with this game, I.

296
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Speaker 2: Mean, the look ahead was four and a half. The

297
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Speaker 2: early line that's been released is four. I could see

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Speaker 2: this moving towards three. I'm I'm on the I don't

299
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Speaker 2: know if I actually want to bet it, but I

300
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:51,920
Speaker 2: have this at two and a half, which means I

301
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:56,560
Speaker 2: probably should bet it if it's under the three, so

302
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Speaker 2: you know, I mean moving under the key number. If

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Speaker 2: I'm betting it's Jacksonville, it's not Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: I hope by the end of the show you listen

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Speaker 1: to yourself one of these times, because it feels like

306
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Speaker 1: you've got a lot of confidence and then you just

307
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Speaker 1: you don't make the wager. Come on, you've done the wholework.

308
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Speaker 1: Everybody knows nobody works harder than you. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

309
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Speaker 1: came away with a victory and a kind of snooze

310
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Speaker 1: of a contest. They will go and travel to New Orleans,

311
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Speaker 1: which is historically not been their friend Friedman. The Tampa

312
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Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers just regardless, still favorites in this contest three

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Speaker 1: point favorites. The number is forty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I feel like that number of forty five and a

315
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,680
Speaker 1: half might potentially grow over this week. What are your

316
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Speaker 1: thoughts on this? Obviously some injuries as well to take

317
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Speaker 1: in from the Tampa side, both on offense and defense,

318
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Speaker 1: but New Orleans has been really tough on the Bucks.

319
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Speaker 1: Are we gonna go live in the past or is

320
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Speaker 1: this a different season? Different Saints team.

321
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Speaker 2: It's I think it's a similar enough of a Saints team,

322
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Speaker 2: and I bet this beforehand Saints plus three at DraftKings

323
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Speaker 2: on the look aheadline under the idea that I wouldn't

324
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Speaker 2: think it would get any lower than that, and depending

325
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Speaker 2: on how the team's played, it could go higher than that. So,

326
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Speaker 2: you know, I think it's a good situation here for

327
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Speaker 2: the Saints. I have this, let me see where in

328
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Speaker 2: my spreadsheets.

329
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Speaker 1: Well, while you're looking too, what's fascinating is if you

330
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Speaker 1: do like the Saints, the money line is plus one

331
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Speaker 1: thirty six right now. That is a number to pay

332
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Speaker 1: attention to, considering the world has really stuck it to

333
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Speaker 1: Tampa quite a bit over last year or two.

334
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have this at two. I think, you know,

335
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Speaker 2: so it's it's close to it now and so given

336
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Speaker 2: where we are now, probably not that much value. But

337
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 2: man four and one against the spread, the Saints against

338
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 2: Tom Brady with the Buccaneers, there's something about their defense,

339
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,480
Speaker 2: like they have the defensive line that can pressure. They

340
00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 2: have Marshaun Lattimore who can take away Mike Evans, which

341
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,080
Speaker 2: means that they can use safety help to bracket the

342
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 2: other wide receiver, which means that the Buccaneers basically have

343
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Speaker 2: to be very good running the ball in order to

344
00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,520
Speaker 2: have a sustainable offense. It's just it's a tough matchup

345
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,800
Speaker 2: for the for the Saints. So I'm probably on the

346
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 2: Buccaneers here. But at two and a half, which is

347
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Speaker 2: the number that I'm seeing right now, I'm looking at

348
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 2: the betting pros Odds page. Two and a half is

349
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,480
Speaker 2: the consensus number. That's pretty close to where I think

350
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:19,680
Speaker 2: it should be. If it moved to three, I would

351
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 2: bet it at two and a half. I want it

352
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Speaker 2: all right, Pat?

353
00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 1: How about you? How do you see this Tampa Bay

354
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 1: New Orleans situation? Working out something to get in early

355
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:28,040
Speaker 1: or wait and see where it goes.

356
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Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna get in early and take the

357
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,400
Speaker 4: Saints at this price. Like I just there aren't many

358
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 4: things that bother the unflappable Tom Brady. But apparently Dennis

359
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 4: Allen is the one guy who can get it in

360
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Speaker 4: his head.

361
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Speaker 1: And Steve Spagnolo.

362
00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:48,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, Like, the Saints have a really tough defense,

363
00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 4: one of the better defensive backfields in the NFL, and

364
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 4: they do have a pass rush, as Friedman was saying,

365
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 4: so and I think they have enough offense to be

366
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 4: able to move the ball a little bit on the

367
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 4: Patriots or a patriotsccanneers.

368
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,120
Speaker 3: Sorry, I'm locked.

369
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 1: I think we're all in a collective three hours sleep.

370
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Speaker 1: That's okay.

371
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,720
Speaker 4: But yeah, so we saw the Buccaneers struggle a little

372
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Speaker 4: bit in the red zone against the Cowboys, so maybe

373
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Speaker 4: their offense isn't firing on all cylinders anyway to open

374
00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 4: the season. I do think there's value here, Like I

375
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 4: think this is going to finish as a one score game,

376
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 4: and you know, in a close game like that, getting

377
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Speaker 4: that many points, yeah, I'll take it.

378
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,480
Speaker 3: And what could very well be a field goal game.

379
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,400
Speaker 1: All right. The consensus right now for the New York

380
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,640
Speaker 1: Football Giants as they are two and a half point

381
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:40,119
Speaker 1: favorites at home against Carolina. Carolina had certainly gotten back

382
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,000
Speaker 1: into that game yesterday. Fits when you're looking at this,

383
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,200
Speaker 1: the renewed Saquon Barkley, is that renewed any faith in

384
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,160
Speaker 1: the Giants here? With this line at home?

385
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,680
Speaker 3: This is a total stay away from me, Joe.

386
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's one like I actually was, you know,

387
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 4: hit the spread and was within half a point of

388
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 4: the total when I tried to peg what this would be,

389
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 4: So I just don't see any value here on anything.

390
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 1: Does this one scare you as well? Friedman?

391
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:05,840
Speaker 2: It doesn't scare me, but I don't see any value now.

392
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 2: It scares me that I think it will be pretty

393
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 2: ugly other than Saquon Barkley playing in this game, but

394
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 2: I don't see any value either way on.

395
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 1: This ugly enough to look at the under at forty

396
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 1: two and a.

397
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:21,560
Speaker 2: Half maybe, but both of these defenses are kind of bad,

398
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 2: so you could see how the offenses are able to

399
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 2: go for. I mean, forty two is a low number,

400
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,359
Speaker 2: so I'm just probably staying away from all of it.

401
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 1: That screams for outcome game to me, and I want

402
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,520
Speaker 1: nothing to do with it personally. New England Patriots take

403
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 1: the l take an injury to Mac Jones of this one.

404
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: Right now, New England on the road. It's still one

405
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,680
Speaker 1: point favorites against Pittsburgh in the early consensus, but that

406
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,240
Speaker 1: could change obviously, especially as no health of other players

407
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,679
Speaker 1: like Najie Harris. Look, this is early, Matt, and I

408
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 1: know there's a lot of injury stuff going on with

409
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 1: both of these teams. T J Watt having that injury

410
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 1: as well, Is this something also, there's just not enough

411
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 1: information to make a good decision at this point.

412
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 2: No, I'm betting it, and I'm on Pittsburgh here. I

413
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,679
Speaker 2: like this this position. I know that the TJ. Watt

414
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 2: is out and that certainly that will impact the ability

415
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 2: for the Steelers to generate a pass rush, but given

416
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 2: that the Patriots are so reliant on the run game anyway,

417
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,119
Speaker 2: I don't know if that will actually factor into the

418
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 2: game as much as it otherwise would. And Mike Tomlin,

419
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,160
Speaker 2: I just I like him in this spot as an underdog.

420
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 2: He's forty six twenty three and two against the spread

421
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 2: at home, sixty three fifty five and three against the spread,

422
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,879
Speaker 2: and then you put that together as a home dog

423
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 2: fourteen three and two against the spread, Like Tomlin should

424
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 2: almost never be an underdog at home. And the Patriots

425
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 2: they look so lost offensively, and like we have seen them,

426
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 2: I mean repeatedly, like for the past decade, start slower

427
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 2: in the season as they are figuring out what they

428
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 2: want to do offense, and I think we're going to

429
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 2: see them continue to struggle on offense. And it's not

430
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,400
Speaker 2: as if the Steelers have a great offense, but they

431
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 2: have a defense that's good enough, and like they've just

432
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 2: got like a lot of grit, they got that dog

433
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 2: in them, you know, like they're just the kind of

434
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 2: team that seems to have the innate ability to drag

435
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 2: their opponent down to their level in games close. So

436
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 2: I think there's value here. I think the Steelers should

437
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:28,880
Speaker 2: be favored.

438
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: Well, the money line is even here right now, So

439
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: pat do you just ignore the spread and just go

440
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 1: right for the Steelers to win out right?

441
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think I probably will.

442
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 4: I see the same thing Friedman sees on this one, Joe, Like,

443
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 4: I'm just kind of baffled by the line and how

444
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is a big dog. I think it's an enormous

445
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 4: amount of respect for both Bill Belichick and for TJ.

446
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 3: Watt that the line is where it is.

447
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 4: But to me, yeah, the big factor is that the

448
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 4: Matt Patricia orchestrated offense of the Patriots is a problem,

449
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 4: which I was kind of thinking, and Friedman was trying

450
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 4: to give the Patriots as a pick in Week one

451
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 4: on the Betting Pro Sunday Morning live stream, so I

452
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 4: just kept my mouth shut. Maybe I shouldn't have, So, yeah,

453
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 4: I think that is a huge issue. And plus we've

454
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 4: got the mac Jones back injury. Yeah, so we don't

455
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 4: even know if we're going to see him this week.

456
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 4: That's going to be in flux. I wouldn't be surprised

457
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 4: if this line yo yoed maybe half a point either

458
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 4: way during the week.

459
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm betting the.

460
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 4: Steelers, just like a blind bet on you know, Mike

461
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 4: tomlin In.

462
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 3: As a home dog, like that's just too tempting.

463
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 1: To mess up. Yeah, as a Patriots fan, I was

464
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: betting on the Dolphins yesterday. So I don't know. I mean,

465
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 1: I don't know what you guys are other people. So

466
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 1: you want to talk about respect about this? All this

467
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 1: respect is deserved or not? Eleven point favorites Los Angeles

468
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 1: Rams at home against the Falcons. Of the Falcons, they

469
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 1: showed a little bit of guts, but at the same time,

470
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: you would think, okay, roster wise, these two teams are

471
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: not the same universe, and maybe the Rams are going

472
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: to take it out on the Falcons. Is that just it?

473
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: But the problem is this eleven points is really a

474
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 1: large number of this early in the season. Pat what

475
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: do you think about this one?

476
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,959
Speaker 4: The first thing that jumped out to me, Joe is like,

477
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,959
Speaker 4: I think this shows an incredible level of respect for Buffalo,

478
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,679
Speaker 4: that the Rams came off that trouncing and just completely

479
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 4: seemed to unaffect, not affect the way they are regarded

480
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 4: by Las Vegas. So yeah, like, I don't know, the

481
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 4: Falcons were scrappy. If I'm gonna put something down in

482
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 4: this game, it's probably going to be taking the points

483
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 4: with the Falcons.

484
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 3: But ultimately not a lot of value on this.

485
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: All right, Friedman, scrappy Falcons versus angry Rams? What do

486
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 1: you see in this one?

487
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: Okay, this one really intrigues me. And the off season

488
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 2: when sportsbooks released way too early look aheadlines, this was

489
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half and then on Thursday, this line

490
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 2: would thirteen. Last night when this line was released, it

491
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: was eleven and a half, and now it's eleven. All right,

492
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 2: not that much has really changed, and how we should

493
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: evaluate these teams if this moves any lower, I'm taking

494
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 2: the Rams. Happily taking the Rams. I think they should

495
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: be around twelve and a half point favorites. I have

496
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 2: this at twelve point twenty five, and so not a

497
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 2: ton of value right now because we're in between key numbers,

498
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 2: but some value and if this gets to ten and

499
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: a half. Ten, there's no way this gets to ten

500
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 2: because everyone will just slam bet the Rams. But even

501
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 2: if this gets to ten and a half, I'm picking

502
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: the Rams.

503
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 1: Okay, San Francisco forty nine ers are going to lick

504
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: their wounds and go back and hopefully it gets some

505
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: better weather in San Francisco. They are eight and a

506
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: half point favorites over the Seahawks. Seahawks are going to

507
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: play tonight free. Even when you look ahead, this one

508
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 1: is just just as easy as you just forget everything

509
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: you saw from San francisc and Week one and just

510
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: copy and paste what you thought about them going into

511
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 1: the season.

512
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: A little bit, but not so much, because I still

513
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 2: think they within the circumstances, they could have looked better.

514
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 2: You know, like you're in a perfect run game environment.

515
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: That's the kind of environment in which the forty nine

516
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 2: ers should thrive, and they didn't do nearly as well

517
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: as I would have expected, And so I am a

518
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,360
Speaker 2: little bit skeptical on this team, especially because they are

519
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,719
Speaker 2: dealing with significant injuries on offense and in the secondary.

520
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 2: I have this number at nine, it's at eight and

521
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: a half. I think it's about where it should be.

522
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: Same thing for you, Patt. It just feels about right.

523
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it does, and this is the line

524
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 4: I projected.

525
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 3: But I do sort of like the forty nine ers.

526
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 4: In a bounce back spot getting the Seahawks in a

527
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 4: short week. So it just seems like the spot sets

528
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 4: up really well for the forty nine ers. Maybe I'll

529
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 4: change my mind if Seattle looks, you know, fantastic tonight.

530
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 3: But I don't think any of us really expect that.

531
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, Friedman's like, come on, we're not into fairy tales

532
00:24:59,160 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 4: on this show.

533
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,120
Speaker 1: Nobody knows what to expect when the Dallas line comes

534
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: back out. It was two and a half, Dallas was

535
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: favorite at home against the Bengals. H If you had

536
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 1: to guess right now with the Dak Prescott injury, what

537
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 1: does this line look like now with the Bengals traveling

538
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: to Dallas with Cooper Rush playing quarterback most likely.

539
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 4: Pat Bengals minus one, that's it might be a little more.

540
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 1: Friedman's got some feels.

541
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 3: What do you think?

542
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 2: No, I mean I think that this line has moved,

543
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 2: like taking Dak Prescott out and let's say Dak is

544
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 2: top twelve comfortably sure, you know, maybe you know number

545
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 2: eight something like that Cooper Cooper Rush is a below

546
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 2: average backup, like I think, one of the worst backups

547
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 2: in the league, or at least like a highly unproven backup.

548
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 2: So I think the swing from dak to Cooper Rush

549
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: is maybe like six points, like five to six points

550
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 2: for they like if they had I don't know, like

551
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 2: if they had Teddy Bridgewater as their backup, it wouldn't

552
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 2: be as big of a hit, that's fair, But like

553
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: this is I think a pretty significant hit here, and

554
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 2: so I think since he should be favored by like

555
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 2: five and a half.

556
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 1: Interesting, We'll keep an eye on that one obviously, keep

557
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: listening and watching all the betting pros content to see

558
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 1: how that one moves. How is this one gonna movie?

559
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: Friedman Denver ten and a half point favorites at home

560
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: against the Houston Texans, who also showed some fight in

561
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: them a little bit as well under Love's smith, Is

562
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 1: this number too big, too small or just right?

563
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I have this at nine point seventy five,

564
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 2: So I'm under the key number of ten, which means

565
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 2: that even though you know, like I'm less than a

566
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: point off there is probably some value here, value on

567
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: the Texans, but man, I don't I don't think I

568
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 2: want to wade into those waters. Yeah, like I want

569
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: to see I want to see what Denver looks like.

570
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: That said, you know what, I should probably bet this

571
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,959
Speaker 2: Now I was gonna say, I'm gonna make it even struggles.

572
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: Maybe this line gets a little bit tighter, And does

573
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: that really change anything? Because it's Week one and everyone's

574
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: kind of shaking the dust off. Sometimes we take a

575
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: little too much out of week one, don't you think that?

576
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 3: We definitely do?

577
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 4: Joyah, And I think just in general, people are maybe

578
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 4: giving the Broncos a little too much credit. I think

579
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 4: they've instantly been anointed as like one of the top

580
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 4: Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, and I don't know

581
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 4: if they're there yet. Like Russ certainly improves their credibility,

582
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 4: but I don't think they're quite on the level of

583
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, the Bills, maybe not even the Chargers.

584
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 3: We'll see about that, I guess.

585
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 4: But I'm with Friedman, like I had this one at

586
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 4: ten and considering it's ten and a half, like that

587
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 4: key number kind of makes me interested in putting a

588
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 4: little something on the text into here.

589
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's walk through. Let's walk through just a little

590
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: bit the scenarios of what happens tonight here because because

591
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: if the Seahawks, let's focus on the Broncos. If the

592
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,719
Speaker 2: Broncos crush the Seahawks, I don't know if that changes

593
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 2: this number at all, but if they underperform, you could

594
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,439
Speaker 2: move from like the ten and a half ten that

595
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 2: you see in the market to like nine and a

596
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 2: half ten, in which, like, if that move happens, I

597
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 2: think they're significant value. So probably best just to take

598
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 2: this now. If you like the Texans.

599
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 1: Fair enough, that's a good point right there. Let's move

600
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: on to the next one here. The Arizona Cardinals woke up,

601
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 1: but it was too late. The game was already over

602
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: on Week one. And then the Las Vegas Raiders tried

603
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: to compete but kept giving the ball to the other team.

604
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: That's never a good recipe for a win. So both

605
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: of these teams start off win lists three and a

606
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Vegas is at home. Friedman, When you're

607
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: looking at this one, do you believe that this line

608
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: is correct? Is it something to jump on early or

609
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: something to wait?

610
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 2: Man? This one hurts I don't want to bet it,

611
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 2: but I have value on the Cardinals. I have this

612
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: at one and a half, and maybe I'm not adjusting

613
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: enough based on what we saw last week. But I

614
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: also want to be cognizant and make sure not to

615
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: overreact to what we saw. But you know, zach Ertz

616
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: was in his best, JJ Watt was out, Rondo Moore out,

617
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: Traylon Mullen out. Maybe some of those guys come back

618
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 2: next week or I should say this week rather, but yeah,

619
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: I have it at one and a half, so through

620
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: the key number of three. And you know, if I'm

621
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: just betting my numbers, and that's probably what I should

622
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 2: do if I want to have faith, and I gotta

623
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: take the Cardinals here.

624
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: That's fascinating. This one I see very differently. Pat. I'd

625
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: love for you to be the tiebreaker here because I

626
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: feel like the Raiders should have been much better.

627
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 3: Than they were.

628
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: They kind of just handed moments away time and time

629
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: again in that game against the Chargers, like DeVante Adams

630
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 1: looked great. I worry about the secondary here a little

631
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: bit at times with Arizona. Do you think that this

632
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: may be a little bit too much credit that Freedam

633
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: is giving to the Cardinals.

634
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 4: Well, so I don't know if this is right, but

635
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 4: like my initial instinct was to come down on the

636
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 4: Friedman side, Like when I first looked at these lines

637
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 4: week two lines on Saturday night, before we had the

638
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 4: data from Sunday, I had the Raiders as a one

639
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 4: point favorite, and obviously, like the data for the Cardinals

640
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 4: was not very positive. And like those maybe I was

641
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 4: down playing the effect of those injuries because their past

642
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 4: defense just got chewed up. I mean, not having what

643
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 4: not having those cornerbacks. I mean, they just got shredded.

644
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 4: But then again, they got shredded by maybe the best

645
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 4: quarterback in the NFL and certainly you know, the best

646
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 4: play caller in the NFL. So I don't know we're

647
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 4: going to see quite that degree of I don't know

648
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 4: the ability to pick that defense aparts the way the

649
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 4: Chiefs did. Yet, Yeah, I don't know, Like Cliff Kingsbury

650
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 4: is really shaking my confidence here, and I don't know

651
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 4: if they're good enough to bounce back and have this

652
00:30:56,080 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 4: like revenge game after the bad home loss to open

653
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 4: the season. But I do think that, as Friedman mentioned,

654
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 4: there's a key number involved here and since my projection

655
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 4: is below it, I'm probably going to take the Cardinals

656
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 4: and live to regret it.

657
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, one quick thing here, just Derek Carr, let me

658
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 2: make sure I'm looking at the right the right cell

659
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: of my spreadsheet this time. Derek Carr thirteen twenty three

660
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 2: to one against the spread as a favorite. So this

661
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 2: is like a guy who routinely underperformed when he's in

662
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: a positive spot, and then on the flip side of that,

663
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury is sort of like the yo yo zigzag guy.

664
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 2: Horrible as a favorite, very good as an underdog. Eighteen

665
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: nine and two against the spread as an underdog in

666
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 2: the regular season and the postseason. So like, this feels

667
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: like a bounce back Cardinals spot.

668
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: How many of those games did Derek Carr had DeVante

669
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 1: Adams for he.

670
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: Ro absolutely zero. Yeah, I just want to.

671
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: Throw that out there. I'm the Loki of fantasy, you

672
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: know that embedding. I just like chaos. I like to

673
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: throw those weird things out there. Let's go to something

674
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: else you want to talk about. Temperature check, Pat, I

675
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,239
Speaker 1: gotta start with you now. Green Bay last year did

676
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: not look good in the start of the season. Then

677
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: they went on to rattle off seven straight wins. So

678
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: is this same old, same old bad week one shake

679
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: off the dust of Aaron Rodgers? Or is there a

680
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: little bit of panic because the line's telling you right now,

681
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: this is nine and a half the same old deal. Right,

682
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers just owns the Chicago Bears. Right? What do

683
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: you think about this one? Pat? What do you take

684
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: out of what you saw yesterday or maybe didn't see

685
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 1: from this offense? Because I think Aaron Rodgers saw a

686
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: lot of purple. That's pretty much all he saw.

687
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I figured this was automatically going to be a

688
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 4: double digit spread, Joe. I was thinking like eleven and

689
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 4: a half. But after what we saw yesterday, I understand

690
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 4: nine and a half. And I don't think there's necessary,

691
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 4: necessarily value to betting the Packers after what we saw,

692
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 4: Like the pass catchers were a problem, the offensive line

693
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 4: was a problem. Rogers did not get a lot of

694
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 4: time to Not having David Bakchiari and Elkin Jenkins is

695
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 4: a big deal and it sounds like Bakchiari at least

696
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 4: is not going to be ready for Week two. So

697
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 4: I do have concerns about the offense, and I don't

698
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 4: think I can bet the Packers even at a much

699
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: lower number than I was anticipating.

700
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: Friedman, this feels like the trap of all traps to me,

701
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: the terrified Talk me out of this one here, because

702
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: I don't want to put too much stock in the

703
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: Bears winning a game on a slipping slide field. But

704
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: certainly they got a lot of energy and momentum and

705
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 1: something to prove. But I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers, right.

706
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: Should we be shaken from what we saw yesterday as

707
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: much as maybe that Aaron Rodgers was shaken up yesterday, I.

708
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: Don't think so. In the off season, this number was

709
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 2: nine and a half. On the Thursday look Ahead, it

710
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 2: was nine and a half, and it is still nine

711
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: and a half. I am betting it. I am betting it.

712
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 2: I think this number should be ten. Before we got

713
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: into Week one, I had this at ten and a half. Yeah,

714
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: the Bears looked okay, but I think a lot of

715
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 2: that had more to do with the circumstances. The Packers

716
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: look bad, no question about that, but they were missing

717
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 2: a lot of players, some of them are likely to

718
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 2: return this week, and I think like we should see

719
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: some natural progression, you know, last year in Week one,

720
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 2: they were absolutely horrible, and they bounced back. They still

721
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 2: have Aaron Rodgers, they still have Matt Lafleur, who has

722
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: you know, thirteen wins and three seasons in a row.

723
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 2: I think they bounced back here. And and by the way,

724
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 2: like the performance of Aaron Rodgers against the Bears. I mean,

725
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: it's it's the stuff of legend. I probably don't need

726
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 2: to go into it, but I will. Twenty and seven

727
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 2: against the spread versus the Bears for his career, he

728
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 2: literally does own the Bears.

729
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: That's amazing.

730
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 2: I am on, I am on the Packers in this spot.

731
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna be snarky and say, well, how

732
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: many games did he have? Davante Adams?

733
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: I am I gonna do that?

734
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: Am I gonna say that? Let's go to the last

735
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: two games. We got some more prime times here. We

736
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: got Tennessee Atuffalo Buffalo nine and a half point favorites.

737
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 1: This feels about right to me for eidmin. How about you?

738
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 4: Uh?

739
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is absolutely right. I'm I'm angry

740
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: at myself because I had this. I had this at

741
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: nine and a half before the game was played yesterday

742
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 2: for Tennessee and it was like, well, the difference between

743
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 2: seven and a half and nine and a half, Like,

744
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 2: it's really not that big of a difference because you're

745
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 2: not moving through any key numbers. So I'll wait and

746
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 2: see and maybe Tennessee is awesome and this number gets

747
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: to seven and obviously that didn't happen. It's nine and

748
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 2: a half. It wouldn't surprise me if it gets to ten.

749
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 2: I have it now after adjusting for this week, I

750
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: have it at ten point twenty five, So I think

751
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: there's probably still some theoretical value on the other side

752
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 2: of the ten here at nine and a half, so

753
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 2: I could see betting it, but I'm probably yeah, I

754
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 2: don't know. I have to decide if I'm betting it.

755
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 2: I'm betting on the bills.

756
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough. Maybe it's the point total forty nine

757
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 1: and a half for this game. Is that something you

758
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: want to touch? Pat or nine and a half or neither?

759
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 4: Neither on the total, Joe, And I'm leaning toward neither

760
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 4: on the side too, because generally Tennessee is in the

761
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,359
Speaker 4: sort of spot where I want to bet them, like

762
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 4: a team coming off an embarrassing home loss, and like,

763
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,919
Speaker 4: you know, if it's a team that's not good enough

764
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 4: to do anything about being angry after a loss like that,

765
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 4: then maybe i'd stay away from them. But I think

766
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 4: Tennessee is just good enough, or at least they have

767
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 4: an above average coach with Mike Vrabel, so I would

768
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 4: normally like them in a spot against a team that

769
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 4: might be a little fat and happy after an impressive

770
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 4: nationally televised victory. But what kind of cancels that out

771
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,439
Speaker 4: for me is the fact that now the Bills will

772
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 4: have had nine full days to prepare for this game.

773
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 4: So I'm just like, even though I actually see half

774
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 4: a point of value with the Bills, I'm just not

775
00:36:58,280 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 4: going to touch this one.

776
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 3: I'm alone conflicted on this game.

777
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: If they thought they were embarrassed on Sunday, wait till

778
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: they get to Buffalo. The Minnesota Vikings against the Philadelphia Eagles.

779
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: This one should be fun. Two and a half point favorites.

780
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: The Eagles are in this one. As we look at

781
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,280
Speaker 1: the early line, the numbers forty nine and a half,

782
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: this feels kind of like an over to me, fits well,

783
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 1: how do you see this one?

784
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 4: I had the total right at forty eight and a half,

785
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 4: but I had the spread at Eagles minus four and

786
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 4: a half.

787
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 3: I do think the Eagles are a better team.

788
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to beat him, all right, Freeman, do you

789
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: see this the same way? Eagles look strong in this one,

790
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 1: especially offensively, but Minnesota Vikings certainly look pretty good as well.

791
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 1: How do you sparse these two?

792
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is interesting. So it's vacillated between two and

793
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 2: a half and three, but seems to be settling on

794
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 2: the two and a half here, and I have it

795
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 2: at three point twenty five. I do think the Eagles

796
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: are the superior team. I don't want to discount what

797
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 2: Minnesota did last week because it was impressive, but I

798
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: think a certain amount of that had to do with

799
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: just uncertainty and confusion with the Packers. And so I

800
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 2: still think Philadelphia deserves to be three point favorites, at

801
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 2: least three point favorites here, so I would be betting

802
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 2: on the Eagles.

803
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: Okay, let's do a little rapid fire here, Matt and

804
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 1: Pat's top three early wagers. Pat watch kick things off

805
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 1: here with your favorite three so far here on Monday morning.

806
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 4: All right, I might be crazy to do this, Joe,

807
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 4: but the Jets, I'm going to take that value and

808
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 4: take the six and a half points with the Jets.

809
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 4: You know, betting on Joe Flacco does not feel good

810
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 4: at all.

811
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:37,919
Speaker 3: It never does.

812
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 4: But I'm going to take them. Nor does betting on Arizona.

813
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 4: But now I feel even better about it. I didn't

814
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 4: know that Cliff Kingsbury record as an underdog, so I'm

815
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,720
Speaker 4: going to take the Cardinals in a bounce back spot

816
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 4: in Las Vegas.

817
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:53,720
Speaker 3: And last one.

818
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 4: I might back down on this if we get some

819
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 4: you know, negative news about the injuries, but I'm going

820
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 4: to take the Ravens at home against Miami with the

821
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 4: four and a half points.

822
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: All right, Friedman, your top three early line picks.

823
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 2: All right, So Casey minus three and a half hosting

824
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:15,919
Speaker 2: the Chargers. I still think that this number should be six.

825
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: I think they're not quite at the level of the

826
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills, but I think it's the Bills and the

827
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 2: Chiefs and a tier unto themselves at the top of

828
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: the league. And then Pittsburgh at home as one and

829
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 2: a half point underdogs against against the Patriots. You are Patriots. Sorry, sorry, Joe, And.

830
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: I was keeping it real. I told you I though

831
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are gonna win, right.

832
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 2: And then Green Bay Green Bay at the numbers nine

833
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 2: and a half. I will definitely take that hosting Chicago.

834
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 1: There you have it. If you want to see more

835
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: consensus lines and go put some early money down, head

836
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: over to betting pros dot com go check it out.

837
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 1: The prop bet cheat sheet will be available as well

838
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 1: pretty soon. It's available for Monday Night Football. Stay tuned too,

839
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football. We have the live

840
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: stream before those in the afternoons. If you want to

841
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, start to target some of these

842
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: primetime action, we're gonna get there for you and help

843
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: you with all that as well at Betting Pros. And

844
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: if you want to have a little bit more fun

845
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 1: on the side, head over to Sleeper dot app slash

846
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: Betting Pros and use the promo code Betting Pros. Because

847
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848
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,600
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849
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,800
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850
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851
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 1: that's at Sleeper dot app slash Betting Pros. To get

852
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: that dumb that'll do it for us. But the story

853
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:34,959
Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Matthew Friedman papitz MOR's

854
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids,