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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Brian Curtiz and I'm Doug Krisner. Here

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Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia's energy minister is defending the decision by OPEK

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Speaker 2: nations and their allies to cut production by more than

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Speaker 2: two million barrels a day. Prince Abdullah sees Bin Salman

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Speaker 2: said that cuts could stretch beyond the first quarter if necessary.

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Speaker 3: We wanted to market to know that there would be

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Speaker 3: a phased then approach, and since we don't know what

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Speaker 3: would be the market situation beat in January February March,

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Speaker 3: we wanted to be careful about what language we use

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Speaker 3: by saying it would be also, it would be phased

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Speaker 3: out or gradually, and it would be based on market condition.

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Speaker 2: The minister added, there are already signs that oil demand

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Speaker 2: is improving, but as we heard, a six week low

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Speaker 2: here for WTI down to seventy three dollars and twenty

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Speaker 2: nine cents a barrel, and i'll add that coming up

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Speaker 2: in a few moments, We'll be chatting with Karly Garner,

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Speaker 2: a senior broker and analyst at DECARLI Training, about the

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Speaker 2: latest dat.

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Speaker 1: Opek Well, a top all street firm, is weighing in

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Speaker 1: as market's bet on aggressive FED rate cuts next year.

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Speaker 1: The story from Bloomberg Zan Kates.

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Speaker 4: Goldman Sachs believes financial markets are far too optimistic about

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Speaker 4: the size of rate cuts. With one and a quarter

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Speaker 4: percentage points pricedent over the next twelve months, a half

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Speaker 4: a point trim is projected by June. Goldman's strategists say

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Speaker 4: that suggests a US economy already on the brink of

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Speaker 4: a downturn, and the numbers are well above Goldman's own forecast,

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Speaker 4: which calls for a single quarter point decrease in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four. Goldman favors options to counter excessive rate cut

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Speaker 4: pricing in Washington and Kate's Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: So your stock's up one hundred and seventy two percent,

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Speaker 2: do you sell well? Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is unloading

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Speaker 2: stock in the company for the first time in two years.

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Speaker 2: He comes after the company rapidly rebounded from a rough

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Speaker 2: patch in twenty twenty two. Zuckerberg's trust, as well as

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Speaker 2: entities for his charitable and political giving, unloaded about six

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty two thousand shares in November. That's worth

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Speaker 2: about one hundred and eighty five million dollars. But Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Mandeep Singh doesn't expect Zuckerberg's move to really concern investors.

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Speaker 5: If you look at the number of chase he's selling,

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Speaker 5: it's less than point one percent of his overall stake

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Speaker 5: in the company. And even though he has a thirteen

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Speaker 5: percent stake, he has about sixty percent voarting rights, so

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Speaker 5: that doesn't change at all. This is like a drop

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Speaker 5: in the bucket when it comes to his ownership of.

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Speaker 2: Metas as Bloomberg's Mandeep Singh, we mentioned that Meta shares

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Speaker 2: had been up one hundred and seventy two percent this

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Speaker 2: year through the end of November, and by the way,

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Speaker 2: that means the company's stock outperformed all major US tech

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Speaker 2: companies other than Nvideo.

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Speaker 1: Spotify Technology is cutting seventeen percent of its workforce now.

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Speaker 1: This marks at least the third time that the streaming

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Speaker 1: service has carried out mass layoffs this year. The aim

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Speaker 1: here is obviously to shrink cost and drive profitability. Here

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's at Ludlow.

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Speaker 6: This is the third trail of workforce that Spotify will

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Speaker 6: have done this year, but the deepest seventeen percent is

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Speaker 6: about fifteen hundred staff. That takes the total for this

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Speaker 6: year to around two thousand. What Daniel Eck, the CEO,

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Speaker 6: said in his letter or statement is that they've considered

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Speaker 6: doing sort of smaller reductions over a period of time,

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Speaker 6: but decided that quote substantial action now was the right

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Speaker 6: way to go. Remember, things aren't bad for Spotify necessarily.

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Speaker 6: They're on track to add around one hundred million users

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Speaker 6: this year. We should make their best year for sort

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Speaker 6: of subscriber growth, but profit is hard to come by.

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Speaker 1: That is Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow. By the way, Spotify previously

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Speaker 1: cut about six percent of its workforce. That was back

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Speaker 1: in January, and then another two percent in June. Today,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the stock, Spotify shares were up

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Speaker 1: nearly seven and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: Brian China has criticized the United States for seeing it

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Speaker 2: as a threat. Bloombergs Yvonn Mann has this story from

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Speaker 2: Hong Kong.

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Speaker 7: China reacted sharply to reesa remarks from US Commerce Secretary

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Speaker 7: Gina Raimundo at a defense forum. Ramundo seter department needed

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Speaker 7: more funding to prevent China from catching up on cutting

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Speaker 7: edge chip technology. She said that's the biggest threat we've

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Speaker 7: ever had. In response, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said

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Speaker 7: the US should stop saying one thing and doing another.

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Speaker 7: The spokesman said the US should stick with the common

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Speaker 7: understandings reached in the San Francisco meeting between President She

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Speaker 7: and Biden in Hong Kong. I'm von Mann Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 1: Later today, Australia Central Bank is expected to revert to

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Speaker 1: a pause on rate hikes. We'll get an RBA decision

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Speaker 1: at around a two point thirty in the afternoon, that

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Speaker 1: is Sydney time. Here's Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds in Sydney.

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Speaker 9: The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its cash rate

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Speaker 9: at a twelve year high of four point three five

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Speaker 9: percent on Tuesday. That's according to both the Bloomberg Survey

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Speaker 9: of economists and market pricing. The IBA delivered a protective

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Speaker 9: hike last month to ensure inflation remains on track to

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Speaker 9: return to target. Governor Michelle Bullock has worn that wild

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Speaker 9: inflation has eased to about five percent, the next leg

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Speaker 9: down to two to three percent target is likely to

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Speaker 9: be drawn out. Policymakers here have been more cautious than offshore,

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Speaker 9: which has increased the pressure on the ABA to maintain

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Speaker 9: a hawkish stance. I'm Gotfield Reynolds Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Now it's time for Global news. The Israeli forces are

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Speaker 2: now finding in almost all parts of Gaza, pushing further

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Speaker 2: south after spending weeks in the north. At Baxter has

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Speaker 2: that story and more from the nine to sixty newsroom

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Speaker 2: in San Francisco.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, you're right, Brian. It has been pretty much on hold,

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Speaker 10: hasn't it. It's using airstrikes as well as ground now

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Speaker 10: in force. It is definite continuing uptick in the use

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Speaker 10: of force. Bloomberg Joan Mary hor Dern reports this is

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Speaker 10: not the direction the US wants it to go, and

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Speaker 10: the Palestinians are really becoming.

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Speaker 11: Trapped at Admiral Kirby, where do they go? And his

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Speaker 11: answers were that they told Israel that they do not

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Speaker 11: support southern operations unless they factor in all the civilians.

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Speaker 11: And then his second point is that they urged yet

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Speaker 11: again to think about how to make sure civilians are

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Speaker 11: safe and pursue operations that account for civilians. But that

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Speaker 11: was his answer. There's no direct geographical place that they

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Speaker 11: are telling Palathenians to go. So it does feel like

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Speaker 11: and where many many progressives in the United States they

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Speaker 11: are talking about that these individuals, these people are.

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Speaker 10: Trapped, but Israel says part of the response is to

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Speaker 10: try and find hostages. Now, Israel's ambassador to the UN,

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Speaker 10: Zippy heard Oleve, says Hamas has brutalized women held hostage

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Speaker 10: in Israel, and cannot let it get away.

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Speaker 12: With its brutally murdered and raped innocent women, and this

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Speaker 12: type of mentality to terrorize innocent people, to terrorize the

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Speaker 12: entire Israel. This is something that was part of his

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Speaker 12: psychological warfare. We're not going to let this type of

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Speaker 12: cribs to be under the Raider and State Departments.

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Speaker 10: Spokes from Matthew Miller says, the US is very concerned

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Speaker 10: about the treatment of the hostel is held by Hamas.

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Speaker 13: You've obviously seen the reports that Hamas has committed sexual violence,

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Speaker 13: they've committed rape.

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Speaker 4: We have no reason at all to doubt those reports.

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Speaker 10: And Bloomberg Opinion Bobby Gosch says, the right wing of

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Speaker 10: the Israel, the Israeli government, well, the rhetoric, he says,

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Speaker 10: is just not helping at all.

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Speaker 8: They're not helping Israel, and they're certainly not helping Israel supporters,

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Speaker 8: most prominently the Biden administration, which is trying to rein

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Speaker 8: in some of these instincts among the Israelis, which is

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Speaker 8: trying to tell the Israelis, tell baby Netniyahoo that you

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Speaker 8: need to be more conscious about civilian casualties.

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Speaker 10: In the Red Sea. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

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Speaker 10: says situation is becoming very dangerous.

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Speaker 13: Past weekend saw four attacks against three separate commercial vessels

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Speaker 13: operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea, three

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Speaker 13: vessels that are connected to fourteen different nations, which goes

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Speaker 13: to show you the extent to which this is truly

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Speaker 13: a source of global concern and a threat to international

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Speaker 13: peace and stability.

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Speaker 10: He says, if the attacks continue, could widen the scope

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Speaker 10: of the regional action. Russian President of Vladimir Putin will

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Speaker 10: travel to the UAE in Saudi Arabia this week. The

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Speaker 10: meetings in Saudi Arabia will be very important for the

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Speaker 10: leaders of OPEC plus countries and as Russia becomes more

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Speaker 10: and more isolated in the world stage. In Hong Kong,

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Speaker 10: pro democracy activist Agnes Chow has confirmed on social media

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Speaker 10: that she will not go back and to Hong Kong,

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Speaker 10: will stay in Canada as she plans to go into

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Speaker 10: self imposed exile. Global News twenty four hours a day

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Speaker 10: and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now in

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Speaker 10: San Francisco. I'm at Baxter and this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: I'm Brian Curtis along with Vonnie Quinn and we'll get

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Speaker 2: back to looking at a little bit more on the

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Speaker 2: Opek plus production cuts that's coming up. And joining us

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Speaker 2: now is Carly Garner, senior broker and analyst at De

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Speaker 2: Carlei Trading.

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Speaker 9: Carly.

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Speaker 2: So, there is a lot of skepticism out there on

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Speaker 2: the Opek plus supply cuts, and there's Russia. We just

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Speaker 2: heard from Prince abdulah'ziz there and he said that he

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Speaker 2: wanted Russia to cut, but he said he couldn't convince

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Speaker 2: his Russian counterpart that it's tough for Russia to cut

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Speaker 2: in the winter. Do others have their reasons as well?

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Speaker 14: Yeah, So the one thing we always have to keep

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Speaker 14: in mind is we should follow what Opek does, not

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Speaker 14: what they say. Sometimes they say things and don't necessarily

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Speaker 14: follow through, and it's because you know, there's a lot

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Speaker 14: of moving parts there. And another thing I'm going to

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Speaker 14: point out is that Russia is in the middle of

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Speaker 14: a war and they have bills to pay. They've on

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Speaker 14: the commodity side of things, They've flooded the market with

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Speaker 14: wheat to help finance the war, and it's not out

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Speaker 14: of the question to think that they might consider doing

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Speaker 14: something similar with oil if they if need be. So yeah,

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Speaker 14: I think this is you know, Opek's pulling out all

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Speaker 14: the stops, but if you look at price section in

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Speaker 14: the market, we're seeing a much different story. Even the

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Speaker 14: most bullish of bullish news comes out today, and even

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Speaker 14: you know, a month or so ago, when the war

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Speaker 14: broke out and oil just can't seem to hold rallies,

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Speaker 14: speculators are selling into it. And I think this is

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Speaker 14: because we had such a very large position going into

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Speaker 14: late September on the longside, and specs are kind of

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Speaker 14: finding out that the supply disruptions that they were pricing

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Speaker 14: in and the OPEC supply cuts that they were pricing

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Speaker 14: in aren't really making up for the lack of demand.

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Speaker 15: So will it take economies to start growing really pretty

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Speaker 15: substantially again for that demand to come back, or is

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Speaker 15: it the industrial part of the economies or what is it?

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Speaker 14: Well, what I believe it is, and this is my theory,

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Speaker 14: is I think technology has been kind of the working

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Speaker 14: in the background in favor of consumers. Technology is allowing

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Speaker 14: US shale producers to produce a lot more oil with

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Speaker 14: a lot fewer rigs than they normally or they have

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Speaker 14: been able to in the past. And we're also seeing

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Speaker 14: vehicles are a lot more efficient than they used to be.

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Speaker 14: There's more evs, and even gas fueled vehicles are are

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Speaker 14: using less energy. So there's a lot of things that

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Speaker 14: are working in favor of pushing oil prices down. Now,

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Speaker 14: if you look at the really big picture, I think

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Speaker 14: there's reason to be bullish long term oil, or at

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Speaker 14: least if we're talking months, not weeks. We've got a dollar,

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Speaker 14: which I believe is the US dollar I believe has

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Speaker 14: rolled over and we'll continue to move lower. We have

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Speaker 14: a global consensus that maybe interest rates at least stabilized,

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Speaker 14: that maybe even peaked, and those things eventually will help

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Speaker 14: crude on the upside. But for the near term, if

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Speaker 14: we're talking the next couple of weeks, I think there's

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Speaker 14: some downside momentum here and crude the trend is lower.

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Speaker 14: Speculators are still holding about half the net long position

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Speaker 14: that they started putting on when OPEC announced cuts originally

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Speaker 14: in the summer, and I think that position needs to

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Speaker 14: get liquidated or washed out, and that should put us

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Speaker 14: in the highest sixties here in the next couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, what feels like what feels like a fair

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Speaker 2: price at the moment for in WTI.

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Speaker 14: Well, the market is really really in the low seventies,

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Speaker 14: So if you're talking about a fair price, this is

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Speaker 14: probably a fair price. Markets rarely stay at fair prices

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Speaker 14: for long. There's just too many moving parts, and I

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Speaker 14: think that's maybe what we might learn here in the

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Speaker 14: next couple of weeks as speculators liquidate the rest of

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Speaker 14: their position. I think markets always overshoot on the downside

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Speaker 14: and the upside, and I think we're in store for

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Speaker 14: an overshoot on the downside that puts us into the

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Speaker 14: highest sixties. But then I think we're probably looking at

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Speaker 14: a buying opportunity for the balls down there.

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Speaker 15: Well, it's interesting because we're seeing a fascinating dynamic playout

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Speaker 15: in the natural gas market as well. We saw a

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Speaker 15: bit of a rally, and now natural gas features are

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Speaker 15: also plummeting. What's the correlation between crude and natural gas?

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Speaker 15: If any carly.

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Speaker 14: At the moment, there really isn't any at all. Natural

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Speaker 14: gas is kind of an odd commodity. It's a really

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Speaker 14: treacherous market. They don't call it the widow maker for nothing.

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Speaker 14: It always overshoots on the upside dramatically. I mean, it

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Speaker 14: wasn't that long ago we were talking about eight dollars

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Speaker 14: and ten dollars natural gas and now we're looking at

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Speaker 14: two threes. So it's just a really wild market with

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Speaker 14: a lot of leverage built in. Speculators are generally almost

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Speaker 14: always that short natural gas, so it's kind of a

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Speaker 14: market that specs are trained or conditioned to sell rallies,

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Speaker 14: and so that's exactly what we've been seeing seasonally, though

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Speaker 14: we're starting to get into the winter months. If there's

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Speaker 14: any type of weather scared, natural gas could flip the

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Speaker 14: other way. But it's operating in a completely different storyline

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Speaker 14: than crude oil.

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Speaker 2: So overall, do you agree with Prince allbuil disease that

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Speaker 2: the skeptics on this will be proved wrong?

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Speaker 14: I mean, he could be right. I'm not going to

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Speaker 14: second guess anybody with any opinion in this market because

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Speaker 14: this is there. I mean, things are fluid, that's for sure.

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Speaker 14: But I can say that any action that the US

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Speaker 14: has taken, for example, the SPR releases or OPEK, they're

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Speaker 14: generally temporary. Markets react in the short run, but in

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Speaker 14: the long run it's going to come down to the

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Speaker 14: really big picture of supply demand.

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Speaker 2: All right, Carly, I think we're just about out of time,

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Speaker 2: but thanks very much for joining us here live on

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Speaker 2: the program. Carly Garner, the senior broker and analyst at

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Speaker 2: Decarle Trading. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief

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