WEBVTT - The Iran War’s Lasting Scars Across Asia

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>We begin the week with the US and around having

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<v Speaker 2>reached an interim deal to end hostilities and reopened the straits.

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<v Speaker 3>Of Hall news.

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<v Speaker 2>You sent oil prices lower and sparctor relief rally across

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<v Speaker 2>Asian markets. Officials from both countries sit to MEETNA in

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<v Speaker 2>Switzerland on June the nineteenth, where the agreement will be formally.

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<v Speaker 3>Everyone has discovered from the past six years that these big,

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<v Speaker 3>one off, supposedly one off disruptions can happen with frequency.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Bloomberg's Tracy Allyway. Tracy co hosts the Odd Lats

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<v Speaker 2>podcast and she spends a lot of time looking at

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<v Speaker 2>the long term impacts of geopolitics on the global economy.

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<v Speaker 3>And so the lesson that everyone's been internalizing is that

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<v Speaker 3>you need to build up stockpiles, you need to have

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<v Speaker 3>independence in terms of your crucial supplies, You need to

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<v Speaker 3>have additional capacity.

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<v Speaker 2>And few places have shown the new need for independence

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<v Speaker 2>and extra capacity more clearly than in Asia. Over the

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<v Speaker 2>past few months, after the US and Israel went to

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<v Speaker 2>war with Iran, the straight Up her Moose grounded to

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<v Speaker 2>a halt, choking off supplies of virtually every major commodity,

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<v Speaker 2>including one fifth of the world's oil. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of great things are going to happen in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East right now, and very importantly, the oil

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<v Speaker 2>is plummeting down. At the G seven summit in France,

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump touted a deal the US reached with Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>regime over the weekend, which he says will reopen the

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<v Speaker 2>Straight Up her Moose.

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<v Speaker 3>Essentially, ships are starting to go out now. On Friday,

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<v Speaker 3>it'll be completely opened.

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<v Speaker 2>Across Asia, countries are welcoming the US Iran peace deal

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<v Speaker 2>that would help to stabilize global energy prices and reopen

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<v Speaker 2>a vital shipping route, but many are skeptical that will happen,

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<v Speaker 2>and even if it does for Asia, that shift might

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<v Speaker 2>be too little, too late.

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<v Speaker 4>There is this brewing but not yet impacting food issue

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<v Speaker 4>that will arise in Southeast Asia specifically.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Bloomberg's Joe Wisenthal. He co hosts odd Lots with Tracy.

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<v Speaker 4>The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is going to

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<v Speaker 4>create a food stress in much of the world during

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<v Speaker 4>the next planting season. And if there's food stress, people

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<v Speaker 4>will be buying food and not random manufactured goods in

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<v Speaker 4>China come that time, and so there may be an

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<v Speaker 4>element where China is choosing to reduce its imports so

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<v Speaker 4>that its customers of manufacturers have more capacity come next year.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>wanh Today I'm sitting down with my colleagues Tracee Alloyway

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<v Speaker 2>and Joe Wisenthal, co host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>We recorded this conversation just before news broke that Iran

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<v Speaker 2>and the US may have struck a deal to reopen

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<v Speaker 2>the Strait of Hormuse, and as you'll hear, this discussion

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<v Speaker 2>is arguably just as relevant now as when we taped it.

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<v Speaker 2>While the reopening of the strait would be a welcome relief,

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<v Speaker 2>the structural shifts caused by the conflict have fundamentally changed

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<v Speaker 2>businesses across Asia, and the resulting pressure on food and

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<v Speaker 2>energy supplies and prices isn't going away anytime soon. On

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<v Speaker 2>today's show, we dive into why Asia is feeling more

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<v Speaker 2>economic pain from this conflict than Western nations and what

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<v Speaker 2>the new normal looks like for the region and the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of the world. While the details of the proposed

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<v Speaker 2>new deal between the US and Iran remain unclear. Thing

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<v Speaker 2>is certain. War in Iran and the virtual closure of

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<v Speaker 2>the Strait of Vermouse have effectively slapped a war tax

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<v Speaker 2>on vital products, and it's impacted every corner of the

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<v Speaker 2>global economy. You've probably felt the pinch in one way

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<v Speaker 2>or another, but its effects haven't been distributed evenly. Wealthy

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<v Speaker 2>countries like the US and Japan have opted to drain

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<v Speaker 2>their stockpiles of crude oil. In other corners of the world,

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<v Speaker 2>governments are turning to demand destruction by encouraging industries and

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<v Speaker 2>consumers to use less, but that risks slowing economic growth

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<v Speaker 2>and triggering recession. It's a glaring disparity, and Bloomberg's Tracey

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<v Speaker 2>Allyway says it highlights a structural vulnerability.

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<v Speaker 3>They're often poorer countries. They don't have as big stockpiles

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<v Speaker 3>of oil inventory. And the one thing we've seen developed

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<v Speaker 3>countries do across the world is really start to dig

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<v Speaker 3>into those stockpiles and release barrels in order to I

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<v Speaker 3>guess cush and the higher prices and so for a

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<v Speaker 3>poorer country, I think that's one of the reasons in

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<v Speaker 3>Asia you're seeing the governments really focused on demand destruction

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<v Speaker 3>rather than propping up prices. So you've had I think

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<v Speaker 3>India was encouraging people not to go on flights. People

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<v Speaker 3>are being urged not to drive to work, things like that.

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<v Speaker 3>China is doing pretty much all the heavy lifting in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of demand destruction, or like the bulk of it.

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<v Speaker 3>So I saw a JP Morgan estimate I think saying

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<v Speaker 3>that demand for oil from China had fallen like nine percent.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's one point five million barrels a day. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a pretty big deal. And again it stands in

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<v Speaker 3>stark contrast to a lot of the developed nations like

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<v Speaker 3>the US that are really digging into their stockpiles.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I don't know if you guys have noticed

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<v Speaker 2>in your time here the prices at gas stations. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you know how much gas in Hong Kong costs? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>about thirty three Hong Kong dollars leader, which is its

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<v Speaker 2>equivalent of about sixteen dollars per gallon.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, that's up about fifteen percent since the Ran War began,

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<v Speaker 2>and diesel prices have actually jumped like near fifty percent.

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<v Speaker 2>And I wonder how does this stack up to what

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen in the US. And I guess more importantly,

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<v Speaker 2>how does that feed into inflationary pressures?

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, if we had sixty dollars gasoline in the US,

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<v Speaker 4>that we definitely that's.

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<v Speaker 1>For sure.

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<v Speaker 4>Clearly inflation is trending up in the US for a

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<v Speaker 4>number of reasons.

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<v Speaker 1>One of them is oil. And so you might say, well.

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<v Speaker 4>You stripped that out because that goes into headline red

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<v Speaker 4>and core inflation. But then when you think about like

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<v Speaker 4>everything has oil or energy in it, especially because of

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<v Speaker 4>transport costs, it just builds that upward pressure. Throw in

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<v Speaker 4>all the data center spending, and the story is just

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<v Speaker 4>like building heat and pressure on everything, and oil is just.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of it.

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<v Speaker 2>In some countries with limited resources, governments are left with

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<v Speaker 2>little choice but to turn the lights off. But wealthier

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<v Speaker 2>countries are playing a very different game. Instead of asking

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<v Speaker 2>citizens to cut back, the countries who can afford it

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<v Speaker 2>are spending heavily to absorb the sticker shock at the pump.

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<v Speaker 2>Here in Hong Kong, the government is actually putting aside

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<v Speaker 2>the equivalent of two hundred and thirty million US dollars

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<v Speaker 2>in a subsidy program to help manage soaring fuel prices.

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<v Speaker 2>It does seem like there's this imbalance in how the

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<v Speaker 2>burden of the conflict is being carried. Right, You've got

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<v Speaker 2>developed economies like Hong Kong and Germany able to afford

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<v Speaker 2>these subsidies, while you've got emerging countries who literally can't

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<v Speaker 2>keep the lights on. What do you guys make of

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<v Speaker 2>that disparity? And I guess the question is is this

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<v Speaker 2>something the US policymakers even think about.

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<v Speaker 3>Probably not, to be honest. One of the interesting things

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<v Speaker 3>here is to me is how long the US can

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<v Speaker 3>actually offset the pain of higher prices. They've obviously been

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<v Speaker 3>releasing a lot from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The question

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<v Speaker 3>is how long can you actually keep doing it? And

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<v Speaker 3>apparently the US is now getting pretty close to its

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<v Speaker 3>operational minimum. So I think I think the minimum is

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<v Speaker 3>like two hundred and fifty million barrels, and we're now at.

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<v Speaker 4>Three hundred and forty nine million. Yeah, it is the lowest.

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<v Speaker 4>We're back to the post COVID lowers.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's right. So the issue in the US is

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<v Speaker 3>like crunch time could come right, Like they're going to lose.

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<v Speaker 2>Up buffer pretty soon. Yeah, And I think Asia does

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<v Speaker 2>seem caught in this trap that really is not of

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<v Speaker 2>its own making right. You've got interest rates that are

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<v Speaker 2>rising globally, of course, driven by the war shocks and

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<v Speaker 2>the AI investment boom centered in the US and the West.

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<v Speaker 2>You've got the US dollar really strong right now. What

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<v Speaker 2>do you think is impact of the US dollar strengthening

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<v Speaker 2>on emerging Asian economies?

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<v Speaker 3>Not good. So there's the outlook for economic growth, and

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<v Speaker 3>there's the outlook for the fiscal side, let's say. And

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<v Speaker 3>so if you're spending money to subsidize oil prices, and

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<v Speaker 3>you're running through your stockpiles in some instances, then it

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<v Speaker 3>becomes more expensive the longer it goes on. One of

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<v Speaker 3>the theories I've seen for the falling gold price recently is

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<v Speaker 3>that governments are selling our central banks are selling reserve

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<v Speaker 3>assets in order to raise more foreign FX so that

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<v Speaker 3>they can buy more oil at the higher prices. So

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<v Speaker 3>it exacerbates foreign currency exposure for emerging markets and probably

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<v Speaker 3>weakens their fiscal position in the future, and then in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of economic growth. So obviously, if you can't get oil,

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<v Speaker 3>if you can't get feedstock for plastics, that's pretty much

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<v Speaker 3>in everything, and so you'll see less economic activity. But

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<v Speaker 3>on the other hand, if we see some countries respond

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<v Speaker 3>to higher oil prices by actually building out more clean

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<v Speaker 3>energy capacity, selling more ev for instance. Then like that

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<v Speaker 3>could be a little bit of an economic boost. And

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not saying that it's enough to fully offset the impact,

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<v Speaker 3>but like it's something at least.

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<v Speaker 4>So, like, let's get back to the context of the question.

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<v Speaker 4>It doesn't matter what the price of the dollar is.

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<v Speaker 4>People are going to spend a crazy amount of money

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<v Speaker 4>on memory chips from Korea.

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<v Speaker 1>Period.

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<v Speaker 4>The long could go up, the long could go down,

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<v Speaker 4>it doesn't matter. We're going to be shipping a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of dollars to Korea and Taiwan for key infrastructure for

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<v Speaker 4>the AI build out. And so I think, yes, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 4>like the strength of the dollar is real. But I

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<v Speaker 4>think we're in this very odd moment where because the

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<v Speaker 4>AI race feels existential, that the traditional macro signals that

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<v Speaker 4>we would look at like rates and FX are being

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<v Speaker 4>swamped by the spending that everyone has just chosen to

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<v Speaker 4>make for existential reasons on so many aspects of AI.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and to your point, Asia is the backbone of

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<v Speaker 2>the global AI ecosystem. Factories here produce the chips that

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<v Speaker 2>power the AI revolution. But those factories rely heavily on

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<v Speaker 2>energy and raw materials. Right, So what happens if there's

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<v Speaker 2>ongoing uncertainty or disruption at the Strait of hormoose should

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<v Speaker 2>we do helium?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah? I was gonna yeah, go for it.

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<v Speaker 4>Now you start, well, I was just gonna say, like,

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<v Speaker 4>both of our minds went to helium at the same time.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's like this is pretty important in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 1>Helium. Please don't ask me exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>Why, but it has to do something with like it's

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<v Speaker 4>a ability to go down to incredibly cold temperatures, which

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<v Speaker 4>is helpful in all kinds of different ways. But there

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<v Speaker 4>is not a lot of elasticity in helium supply, and

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<v Speaker 4>so if there's going to be like one link where

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<v Speaker 4>the persistent closure of the Strait of hormoz might actually

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<v Speaker 4>intersect with that, it would be if they truly run

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<v Speaker 4>out of helium, and then you just really have a

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<v Speaker 4>much harder time making chips.

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<v Speaker 2>Now I want to shift to interest rates for a bit.

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<v Speaker 2>Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated in May at its fastest pace

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<v Speaker 2>in three years, and its producer price index also surged

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<v Speaker 2>to six point three percent. Was quite high that puts

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of pressure on the Bank of Japan to

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<v Speaker 2>hike interest rates, and across Asia you are seeing countries

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<v Speaker 2>raising their inflation projections and pushing interest rates higher. What

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<v Speaker 2>do you think would be the broader impact of prolonged

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<v Speaker 2>inflation across Asia? And what does it mean for US consumers?

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<v Speaker 3>So the inflationary impact is there, right, and it's not

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<v Speaker 3>even necessarily oil. It's also those petrochemicals which go into everything,

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<v Speaker 3>And then the other thing in terms of inflation. Governments

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<v Speaker 3>and companies around the world are learning that it's important

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<v Speaker 3>to build up stockpiles, and it's important to build out

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<v Speaker 3>your energy capacity, or your petrochemical capacity, or your chip's capacity,

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<v Speaker 3>things like that. If you have everyone all at once

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<v Speaker 3>trying to do this, that consumes resources, right, that is

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<v Speaker 3>de facto inflationary. And I think that's probably the lesson

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<v Speaker 3>we have collectively learned from the past few years, is

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<v Speaker 3>that you don't want to be left high and dry

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<v Speaker 3>if there's a big disruption, it is really important to

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<v Speaker 3>have extra stuff, and extra stuff, you know, means higher prices.

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<v Speaker 2>After the break. Why we may not yet have seen

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<v Speaker 2>the full extent of damage caused by the closure of

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<v Speaker 2>the Strait up Armouse, and how the fallout from the

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<v Speaker 2>war is reshaping Asia's relationship with the rest of the world.

0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 2>The supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 2>of Hormuse is arguably the biggest ever, but by draining reserves,

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 2>finding workarounds, and managing demand, governments have tried to shield

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:19.080
<v Speaker 2>their citizens from the pain or delaying it at least

0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.280
<v Speaker 2>even if the strait does open this weekend. Bloomberg's Joe

0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 2>Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway say that pain might still be coming.

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 2>Richer countries will be able to spend to ease it,

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 2>but poorer countries in Asia don't have those resources, and

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 2>that could spell trouble for everyone. You guys spoke with

0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.240
<v Speaker 2>a former farmer, Lorkin Kelly on one of your recent episodes.

0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:44.960
<v Speaker 5>The problem's going to arise in six months and twelve

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.120
<v Speaker 5>months time when their decisions be made today about do

0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:51.120
<v Speaker 5>I plant that fiel Luis or do I reed more.

0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 5>Cattle pection and pharmac are gonna say no, we're not

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:53.600
<v Speaker 5>going to do that.

0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 2>You know, across Southeast Asia right now, farmers are now

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 2>skipping this planting season because they can't afford the diesel

0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 2>for the tractors. They can't afford the diesel for the

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:07.440
<v Speaker 2>water pumps, right that they need to cultivate the crops,

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 2>and some are actually choosing to leave crops rotting in

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 2>the ground because they can't afford to harvest. I mean,

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:13.800
<v Speaker 2>that's huge, right.

0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:16.640
<v Speaker 4>This is so, this is what I was saying earlier

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 4>that perhaps one of the shoes that may be yet

0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 4>to drop is a food crisis in Asia.

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.320
<v Speaker 1>And it's perhaps the hierarchy of needs.

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.360
<v Speaker 4>Right, If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 4>to be buying electronics right from China whatever it else.

0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:35.040
<v Speaker 4>And so perhaps one part of the logic for China

0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 4>to reduce its imports is to ease a little bit

0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 4>of that squeeze.

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 1>But what I've heard, which is.

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 4>That there is this brewing but not yet impacting food

0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:48.520
<v Speaker 4>issue that will arise in Southeast Asia, specifically.

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 3>When it comes to the impact of fertilizer. We're talking

0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 3>about longer timeframes because there are planting seasons, as you

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 3>just mentioned. One historical anecdote that I learned from Atom

0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:02.720
<v Speaker 3>two's is that apparently in ancient Roman times, emperors would

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:06.160
<v Speaker 3>try to time wars so that they weren't during the

0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:10.400
<v Speaker 3>planting season so they wouldn't disrupt food supplies, and also

0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.560
<v Speaker 3>so that farmers could actually go off and be soldiers.

0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.880
<v Speaker 3>But clearly we seem to have forgotten that lesson. I

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:18.080
<v Speaker 3>want to stay on food for a bit.

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 2>You know, in Thailand, I was there in bank Cotious

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 2>a couple of weeks ago and talked to our colleagues there.

0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.080
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they've done some really great reporting on how

0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:29.480
<v Speaker 2>fishermen in Thailand are keeping their boats anchored because fuel

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 2>eats up more than half of the cost of every trip.

0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:35.360
<v Speaker 2>So you know, they basically can't raise the price of

0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 2>their catch, right, so they they're deciding not to go out.

0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 2>And I wonder to what extent should policymakers and leaders

0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 2>worry about this, you know, turning into a political problem, right,

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:47.600
<v Speaker 2>this ag issue.

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:50.480
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, look, I don't know if I ever

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:54.520
<v Speaker 4>fully bought the theory, but you know, there was a

0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 4>There are many people who argued, for example, that the

0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 4>catalyst for the Arab spring was wheat prices that year.

0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:04.800
<v Speaker 4>And you know, our leadership is other things on their mind.

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 4>If we're talking about this is very classic type of

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:11.240
<v Speaker 4>thing that creates real political disruption. And I don't think

0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.879
<v Speaker 4>we should have the hubris to assume that these cycles,

0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.120
<v Speaker 4>which will probably have data points going back thousands of years,

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:19.120
<v Speaker 4>have suddenly stopped.

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.639
<v Speaker 2>And I guess with sanctions, I do wonder to what

0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:24.960
<v Speaker 2>extent that the oil crunch would lead to the weakening

0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.960
<v Speaker 2>of essentially one of the US's biggest non military weapons,

0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:30.119
<v Speaker 2>right sanctions.

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.120
<v Speaker 4>There was an interesting article in the Wallhet Journal that

0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:38.200
<v Speaker 4>the North Korean economy is doing surprisingly well. They're actually

0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.959
<v Speaker 4>building a lot of housing, and they're sort of quite

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:44.520
<v Speaker 4>a little evidence of like improving standard of living and

0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 4>so forth. And of course here is, you know, one

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:49.400
<v Speaker 4>of the most sanctioned countries on Earth for a very

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:54.240
<v Speaker 4>long time. I just think, like the degree to which

0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 4>sanctions are a powerful tool, or that they could really

0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:01.880
<v Speaker 4>be used to like crush any enemy, all of it's

0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 4>been called into question right now.

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.399
<v Speaker 2>Now, let's say the war ends next week. How do

0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.800
<v Speaker 2>you think the world has fundamentally been changed because of

0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:14.400
<v Speaker 2>this war and how it's played out.

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:17.840
<v Speaker 3>So I think it goes back to, I guess, the

0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:22.160
<v Speaker 3>idea of the choke point economy. So everyone has discovered

0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:26.080
<v Speaker 3>from the past six years that these big one off

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:31.439
<v Speaker 3>supposedly one off disruptions can happen with frequency, right, so

0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 3>each disruption is slightly different in what it actually is,

0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:38.600
<v Speaker 3>but they're happening more often. I mean, I'm sure both

0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.639
<v Speaker 3>of us, having been in Hong Kong during the pandemic,

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.399
<v Speaker 3>I will always keep an extra supply of toilet paper

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:50.000
<v Speaker 3>from now until forever. Basically we all learn that, and

0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.760
<v Speaker 3>so I think that impulse is going to stick around

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:53.560
<v Speaker 3>for a long time.

0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:55.760
<v Speaker 1>The world is very globalized.

0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:58.440
<v Speaker 4>I feel like for me coming here to Hong Kong,

0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:03.520
<v Speaker 4>it's been very helpful reminder like how integrated the world

0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:08.520
<v Speaker 4>still is. But these are the wheels are all spinning

0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:10.719
<v Speaker 4>in the opposite direction of where they were in you know,

0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:13.720
<v Speaker 4>the second half of the twentieth century, trade barriers are

0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:15.960
<v Speaker 4>going up and countries don't trust each other, and that

0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 4>is going to have consequences for both productivity and prices.

0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.

0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:40.040
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0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.040
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0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:46.400
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0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:48.760
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0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:51.840
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0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.120
<v Speaker 2>the show. Thanks for listening, See you next time.

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:02.120
<v Speaker 3>Bosting Claim met him