Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene,
Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg you
Speaker 1: bring an investors. I don't know if I'm beast at
Speaker 1: the house wants to speak to me. I said to him,
Speaker 1: I'm best at the house. It's so good to see you,
Speaker 1: and he said anything for Tom Keene, Well, you know
Speaker 1: it's implied. That's called an implied Pharaoh. Richard House counsel
Speaker 1: and Foreign Relations President Richard, It's always great to get
Speaker 1: your insight. You thank you, sir, I appreciate it. Let's
Speaker 1: talk about what we finally got, which was maybe a
Speaker 1: little bit of a de escalation between Europe and the
Speaker 1: United States. How did you read that, Rachel? I did
Speaker 1: read it as a de escalation. It's a it's a truce.
Speaker 1: The question with truces is whether they ultimately translate into
Speaker 1: treaties and become enduring. And we don't know whether this
Speaker 1: was simply a tactical pullback by the president because he's
Speaker 1: getting some pushback around the country. A lot of people
Speaker 1: who are part of his base, farmers, also people in manufacture,
Speaker 1: just workers are beginning to feel the direct and indirect
Speaker 1: effects of these tariffs. So we don't know whether it's
Speaker 1: simply tactical, as things so often are in this administration,
Speaker 1: or again whether this will be translated into something that
Speaker 1: will last. You've talked before about the several fronts of
Speaker 1: the United States appears to be at war with UM.
Speaker 1: One is trade, and there are other space you think
Speaker 1: it's taking place as well. UM what are you most
Speaker 1: concerned about now? The answer essentially yes, it's all of
Speaker 1: the above. There there's there's trade, which is one and
Speaker 1: the side effect also what of our fiscal stimulus and
Speaker 1: tax cutches the long term debt. I'm worried about North
Speaker 1: Korea because, among other things that is not the nuclearizing.
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance of conflict with Iran, unlike
Speaker 1: North Korea where being urged to confront Iran by our
Speaker 1: local allies and Iran doesn't have great power backers. And
Speaker 1: then domestically, I think the assault on some of our
Speaker 1: institutions in this country is also a real, real grounds
Speaker 1: for concern. I've never asked you this question. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: ask it right now. How does it rand fight wars?
Speaker 1: I mean, I remember my amateur reading of the Iran
Speaker 1: Iraq world, which was basically medieval. But how when when
Speaker 1: you say a potential conflict with Iran, what does that
Speaker 1: actually mean? Luran has many tools. That has cyber tools
Speaker 1: it would use against us. It has terrorism which it
Speaker 1: could deploy anywhere around the world. It has the Revolutionary Guards,
Speaker 1: which is essentially a power military force. It has its
Speaker 1: like a military military like tanks you know Arab Israeli
Speaker 1: sixty seven, but not at not at that level. But
Speaker 1: I mean much much more worrisome about Iran is what
Speaker 1: they could do through what's called asymmetric efforts to interfere
Speaker 1: with shipping. That for example, tankers would be very vulnerable
Speaker 1: to Iranian missile bowes and to Iranian speedboats, which could
Speaker 1: be used as territory. Do they control the Gulf of
Speaker 1: Controls too stronger word, but they could deny it temporarily
Speaker 1: to us or to anybody else. It could be they
Speaker 1: could disrupt. Now that would be a major escalation because
Speaker 1: that would put them a target on their backs, and
Speaker 1: sooner or later they would not prevail in that there's
Speaker 1: this illusion that there is an elected government that is
Speaker 1: a democracy. You really push against that, don't you. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to speak about the Iranian government in
Speaker 1: the singular. It's plural. You've got a religious authority that
Speaker 1: is not elected, and then you've got political authority, but
Speaker 1: that's limited. Plus now you also have this military, ideological
Speaker 1: intelligence authorities, so you've got multiple centers of power. But
Speaker 1: still I'd say there are this fusion of the political
Speaker 1: with the religious dominates. And the people were used to
Speaker 1: dealing with ravad zarif the foreign minister, Ruhani, the president,
Speaker 1: they are clearly limited in their way. There is something
Speaker 1: broader and perhaps more pathful taking place, and I'd love
Speaker 1: your insight on it. I'm just wondering whether we've ever
Speaker 1: seen a country like the United States its voluntarily give
Speaker 1: up concede hegemonic power. If we ever seen this before,
Speaker 1: short answers, No, We're used to countries being exhausted. We
Speaker 1: saw that, say with the United Kingdom given World War One,
Speaker 1: the right that then we had the fall of the Empire.
Speaker 1: We saw it with the Soviet Union as a result
Speaker 1: of Afghanistan and the Cold war competition the United States
Speaker 1: under to some extent Barack Obama, but intensified under Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: is the first example I'm aware of and history of
Speaker 1: a country voluntarily choosing to abdicate, to walk away from
Speaker 1: a large international role. And what makes it particularly bizarre
Speaker 1: is we have benefited so much. The costs of what
Speaker 1: we've done are far outweighed by the benefits we've derived.
Speaker 1: So to simply abdicate I find without historical precedent and
Speaker 1: without rationale. Thank you so much for to be for
Speaker 1: to brief a visit on radio today, but we greatly
Speaker 1: appreciate it across our morning hours. Richard Hasses with the
Speaker 1: Council on Foreign Relations, This is our interview of the
Speaker 1: day on Facebook. And this goes back to the heritage
Speaker 1: of securities analysis of technology and it started, and I
Speaker 1: mean started forty years ago at Robertson Coleman Cybel and Weisseul.
Speaker 1: Tom Weisseul was really the one that started all of
Speaker 1: this analysis of the investment in finance of technology in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. That distilled down to his wonderful firm and
Speaker 1: then on to Montgomery Securities and John a gentleman who
Speaker 1: helps spearheads so much of this. Then a younger Mark
Speaker 1: Lehman is with us UH today who understands the heritage
Speaker 1: the found dation John of the Medlal Park in San
Speaker 1: Francisco that's blowing up this morning. Isn't it nice to
Speaker 1: have monk with us in New York? It is, and
Speaker 1: particularly because we we don't know the history of where
Speaker 1: Mark and I came from with Robertson Stevens and particularly
Speaker 1: with Tom Weissel, and you've got that heritage that Mr
Speaker 1: Zuckerberg and Miss Samberger bouncing off of this morning, Mott Lehman,
Speaker 1: JAMP Securities, the president joining us around a time. Great
Speaker 1: to have you with us with down in a pre
Speaker 1: market on Facebook. What went wrong, Mork, Well, a few
Speaker 1: things went wrong. One is uh, they clearly had um
Speaker 1: a revenue top line number that missed h the analysts
Speaker 1: expectations and you never want to see that. You combine
Speaker 1: that with expense growth that was well above expectations as well,
Speaker 1: and of course the guidance going forward which was um
Speaker 1: not wonderful and not what the street wanted to see.
Speaker 1: So put those all together with a stock that had
Speaker 1: gone up since the bowels of the Cambridge analytical scare
Speaker 1: in the first quarter in in early April, and it
Speaker 1: was just ripe for disappointment. And all those things combined.
Speaker 1: Have the stock, as you just said, down um, and
Speaker 1: and a lot of people saying I told you so.
Speaker 1: Then again, stock's gonna be flat year to date. It
Speaker 1: was up sent before this year to date. So it's
Speaker 1: not like this is uh, this is kind of a
Speaker 1: don't cry from the Argentina. But clearly this was a disappointment.
Speaker 1: We're going back to May levels and clearly it's a disappointment.
Speaker 1: And I always look at the failure of communication when
Speaker 1: we see moves this big. We haven't got a catastrophe.
Speaker 1: There isn't a crisis that's been announced. We just got
Speaker 1: the numbers and they were a little bit lower with
Speaker 1: the many people anticipated. What are we seeing on the
Speaker 1: screen relative to the news. Is it an overreaction, That's
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to get into, and whether this is
Speaker 1: the mother of all buying opportunities when a company this
Speaker 1: big with so much scope, Well, you're you're you're correct.
Speaker 1: I mean, like you said, it is down here and
Speaker 1: it is kind of flat year to date. UM. This
Speaker 1: will be the largest single uh loss of market cap
Speaker 1: in one day in the industry, and it's all my fault.
Speaker 1: The same people who are telling you I told you so,
Speaker 1: we're telling you to sell the stock at fifty undred
Speaker 1: fifty before that. UM, listen, I I My faith is
Speaker 1: in the fact that they have several platform that are
Speaker 1: still the bell Weather platforms, UM, Instagram, obviously, facebat Facebook.
Speaker 1: Still they break out the income statements of these different boltons,
Speaker 1: including they really don't when they talk about his daily
Speaker 1: average juice they talk about I think the street will
Speaker 1: probably ask for it at some point. UM. I think
Speaker 1: they're probably not going to do that soon because I
Speaker 1: think it helps them, UM compare themselves to some of
Speaker 1: their competitors they have. Although the competition between Instagram and Snapchat,
Speaker 1: I think Instagram. If you my kids, Instagram is the
Speaker 1: winner right now. Do they need to do in April eight,
Speaker 1: that is when Mr Scully took over from Mr Jobs,
Speaker 1: that they need to ring a CEO adult type into
Speaker 1: the room? You know, I don't. I'm not sure we're
Speaker 1: there yet. I think there's plenty of adults are on
Speaker 1: the table. They have had some losses, they've had some
Speaker 1: personnel losses. UM. I think Mark is clearly at the
Speaker 1: helm here. Um, he's not. Uh, I wouldn't put him
Speaker 1: in the category of needing an adult in the room. UM.
Speaker 1: But clearly they're they're very detective of what they have here. UM.
Speaker 1: And and it is a very mercantile company and lost
Speaker 1: that loose say to that. UM. But they're hiring a
Speaker 1: lot of people. They're building more and more personnel and
Speaker 1: expense pressure on that to cure some of the ills
Speaker 1: that we've talked about. I think to play for the
Speaker 1: long bowld not to play for the next quarter. You
Speaker 1: say you wouldn't put him in the category as needing
Speaker 1: an adult in the room, but many people did. It's
Speaker 1: why Sarah Sandberg is there. Quite clearly. Over the last
Speaker 1: couple of months, it's been a total failure. The response
Speaker 1: the Cambridge Analytic a scandal was slow, it was clumsy.
Speaker 1: Some people would just say it was outright pathetic. And
Speaker 1: the way they've communicated these numbers to the market is
Speaker 1: also pretty slow, clumsy, and allowsy and outright pathetic. When
Speaker 1: you see the stock down by this morning, what's clear
Speaker 1: to me is that we have a problem on our hands.
Speaker 1: There is a growth picture that the market thought was
Speaker 1: going to come through, and the company themselves are saying
Speaker 1: it's now not going to expenses rows, marchins have come
Speaker 1: in a little bit. I guess the judgment called this
Speaker 1: morning is whether you think that trend continues. Is this
Speaker 1: a company that's just resetting expectations, or are we about
Speaker 1: to see Facebook ultimately go to a more mature stage
Speaker 1: where we're gonna get the kind of growth levels we've
Speaker 1: got used to and when marchings are gonna get a
Speaker 1: little bit tight to what do you expect now? Mark?
Speaker 1: In the reset today, you're gonna see expenses bloat a
Speaker 1: little bit for now. I think given the revenue um
Speaker 1: that they're going to garner and I think that this
Speaker 1: move to the platform, obviously the online platform is still
Speaker 1: in its infancy. You are still seeing the media um
Speaker 1: spend go more and more towards online that has not anated.
Speaker 1: You saw what Google reported earlier this week, a gargantuan
Speaker 1: company that was still able to report the kind of
Speaker 1: revenue growth they have. I don't think this is a
Speaker 1: revenue diminution story. I think this is still a story
Speaker 1: of whether you've got a lot or expenses and revenues
Speaker 1: bigger story, Mark Leman with us with j MP thrilled
Speaker 1: that he's with us today with his heritage the Bank
Speaker 1: of American Securities in Tom Weissel and Montgomery as well.
Speaker 1: I just did it a fitted standard deviation study and
Speaker 1: Mr Zuckerberg is joining enjoying a four point four standard
Speaker 1: deviation dropping the stock as we speak. Everything in me
Speaker 1: says load the boat if you believe in the fundamental story.
Speaker 1: JP Morgan and just price target, somebody else adjusted, Piper
Speaker 1: Jeffrey adjusted price Target, Susquehanna want the other way and
Speaker 1: said we're long. What are you right now? Could you
Speaker 1: devolve that before your morning morning meeting. I mean, we're
Speaker 1: still positive on the story, and I think our analyst
Speaker 1: Ron Josie has been pointing out what we talked about earlier,
Speaker 1: which is there's multiple ways to win here. If you
Speaker 1: just look at the ads on Instagram and the target
Speaker 1: markets that they have, that's a huge market. It's the
Speaker 1: absolute eighteen thirty market that absolutely advertisers always can I
Speaker 1: just say, Johnny, everybody at home has glued to Instagram. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean they have several franchises outside of
Speaker 1: the coal product with a billion users. Messenger WhatsApp on Instagram.
Speaker 1: If you believe in the story like Mark does this morning,
Speaker 1: there's quite clearly areas way you're gonna see significant are
Speaker 1: you four point four standard deviation? This is a massive
Speaker 1: move because it's like your single best buy. It's it's
Speaker 1: certainly one at the top of our list. You also
Speaker 1: have a stock, like we said earlier, that's gone from
Speaker 1: a hundred basically a hundred and fifty a Troughton April
Speaker 1: to fifteen yesterday. Okay, so in three months, can up
Speaker 1: the script please? Days? Okay, this is so important. We're
Speaker 1: talking about the heritage mark that you carry with you
Speaker 1: from the days of tomoisel and and and Robertson Stevens
Speaker 1: and that everybody out there collapsed in a one. What
Speaker 1: was the humility lesson out of the Nasdack collapse of
Speaker 1: March of one for the San Francisco securities industry. Well,
Speaker 1: you asked a really large question that the industry had
Speaker 1: started to um morph um. The four horsemen a term
Speaker 1: that many of you know. Roberts and Stephens, Montgomery, Hamberken,
Speaker 1: Quests and Alex Brown had all been bought by larger
Speaker 1: banks um and at that time San Francisco, which was
Speaker 1: the hub of those three of those firms, Roberts and Stephens,
Speaker 1: Hamberg Montgomery have been bought by banks, and in doing so,
Speaker 1: the the core of the of those firms, which is
Speaker 1: really technology and healthcare, research and banking um started to
Speaker 1: morph and and move a little. The Nexus move to
Speaker 1: New York. And as that happened, a a vacuum was
Speaker 1: created in tandem with the fact that the market was crashing.
Speaker 1: So our firm, JMP got started at that time on
Speaker 1: the heels of that. Tom Wisele also started his firm
Speaker 1: and has since moved in emerged into Stifel. But at
Speaker 1: that time there was a little bit of a vacuum then,
Speaker 1: and San Francisco really was it was. It was a
Speaker 1: ghost town relative to the way it is today. John
Speaker 1: Farrell on our team, thank you so much for coming.
Speaker 1: And this is an extraordinary day. I didn't realize, folks
Speaker 1: that John Farrell, you said this could be the largest
Speaker 1: capitalization drop in history. I don't think we've ever had.
Speaker 1: I believe it will be a hundred billion plus today.
Speaker 1: Intel dropped I believe ninety billion at one In the
Speaker 1: old days and when the market was in two thousand
Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciated. Well, we're gonna shift
Speaker 1: right now to James Bevan, who has a tactical and
Speaker 1: strategic view of what to do with long term investment
Speaker 1: at c c l A Investment management in London. James,
Speaker 1: how do you distill three and forty two earnings reports
Speaker 1: that one day? You can't do it? So? How do
Speaker 1: you sort of keep up with the portfolios? Earn? Tom?
Speaker 1: Sorry I lost you for a moment. Could you do
Speaker 1: that again? Okay, I'll do it. You're you know, you're
Speaker 1: a pro, your own x amount of securities in the
Speaker 1: earnings madness? How do you keep up with the news flow,
Speaker 1: whether it's Facebook, American Airlines or whatever. I think keeping
Speaker 1: up the news flow is immensely easy because it's all tagged.
Speaker 1: It all comes up. You don't have to go and
Speaker 1: look for it. I think what is interesting is how
Speaker 1: does one deal with information overload? How does one read
Speaker 1: through the numbers and arrive at a decision that looks
Speaker 1: prudent without panicking with buying too much at the top.
Speaker 1: And for me, this is a matter of stepping back
Speaker 1: and taking a long term view. I worry that there
Speaker 1: are far too many investors whose time horizon is very short.
Speaker 1: The day trade is good luck to them. I think
Speaker 1: that's going to be an increasingly difficult game to play.
Speaker 1: The other issue that you will readily recognizes the companies
Speaker 1: cannot know a brief away from the public arena, so
Speaker 1: digging up real nuggets information is much harder. Real insight
Speaker 1: therefore will be very valuable. This is really important, John,
Speaker 1: the information flow today, James and I. John, remember when
Speaker 1: there was no PDF, no internet. In a ten am
Speaker 1: a cart with four heavy wheels was rolled off the
Speaker 1: elevator loaded with written reports. John, have you ever seen
Speaker 1: a written report? Hand written? No? No, No, we didn't
Speaker 1: use quill. Beven used quill. He was in London. I
Speaker 1: didn't use quill. I don't know if we go back
Speaker 1: to the twenties or not, but this information equality now
Speaker 1: is remarkable. Which is a big question, James, about whether
Speaker 1: you can actually get an edge as a stock picker
Speaker 1: in Well research heavily perhaps overly researched large cap companies,
Speaker 1: whether you have to go to MidCap to small cap
Speaker 1: to find that edge. James, I think that if you
Speaker 1: take strategic views that the street turns to ignore, you
Speaker 1: absolutely can and you identified the secular trend that has
Speaker 1: been played out with MasterCard and Visa. They're both big
Speaker 1: holdings in our portfolios because we share your view. But
Speaker 1: this is a secular growth story and it will run
Speaker 1: and run. It amazes me how many people are not
Speaker 1: stepping back and saying, well, so, what are the big
Speaker 1: picture changes going on? STARTI to which we should have leverage.
Speaker 1: What are the big picture changes conversely, which we should
Speaker 1: try to avoid because they will trip us up. Well,
Speaker 1: let's talk about the other trends then, because the payment
Speaker 1: processing companies are just ripped James, as you know, and
Speaker 1: if you've been sitting on them, you'll be doing very well.
Speaker 1: Visa is up twenty year today, MasterCard for E one,
Speaker 1: PayPal square up over a hundred percent. All of these
Speaker 1: part of the same story. What's the other trend, this
Speaker 1: secular shift that we aren't picking up on, because quite
Speaker 1: clearly many investors of court hold of that wind. What
Speaker 1: are you looking at that you think people are missing? Well,
Speaker 1: I certainly think that within the disruptive technologies generally in
Speaker 1: the field of pharmaceuticals, for example, we're not heavy in drugs.
Speaker 1: What we are interested in at diagnostics and devices. So
Speaker 1: we're looking at the companies that are able to help
Speaker 1: practitioners have a better understanding of the diseases they're looking
Speaker 1: at with their patients. Those I think of the ideas
Speaker 1: because you can see secular growth, and you can you
Speaker 1: can calculate how big that market will be and therefore,
Speaker 1: by extension, how fast earnings will grow with it. This
Speaker 1: jasp Bevan is with rates higher, I'm seeing a ton
Speaker 1: of two and three billion dollar deals. They'd already make
Speaker 1: the news visibility Farer is so huge on his TV
Speaker 1: property he won't even mention a three billion dollar deal.
Speaker 1: It's too small for John James to mention on here.
Speaker 1: But there's a time of them out there. Are we
Speaker 1: going to see an M and A frenzy as rates wolver?
Speaker 1: I certainly think we will, and I think that M
Speaker 1: and A is going to be driven in part because
Speaker 1: a number of companies are finding organic growth in a
Speaker 1: climate to slowing overall global growth increasingly hard to deliver,
Speaker 1: and they are fearful of what the market will do.
Speaker 1: They come to the table with numbers that are down,
Speaker 1: not up. What about the evaluation of these companies based
Speaker 1: on high rates? James the valuations issue I think is
Speaker 1: really important, and what I would observe in the US
Speaker 1: equity market is that the strength of corporate earnings this
Speaker 1: year means that equities have had a roughly a fifteent devaluation.
Speaker 1: To me, the case for buying US equities as strong
Speaker 1: as it's ever been. And I'm still projecting that the
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred gets to forty one points by the
Speaker 1: end of the year this year, and if not by
Speaker 1: the end of this year, certainly by the middle of next.
Speaker 1: It's way too early to sign up to the band
Speaker 1: market idea. So do you share that in musiasm for
Speaker 1: European echoities? James, No, do you know, I certainly do not.
Speaker 1: I worry about the US US economy being hotter than expected. Conversely,
Speaker 1: I worry about the European economy and being slower than expected.
Speaker 1: And that's because that the European growth story is predicated
Speaker 1: on two challenges. Export she's increasingly difficult, and also domestic growth.
Speaker 1: And the domestic growth story on the back of slowing
Speaker 1: consumption trends is really very upsetting. Jez Bevin, thank you
Speaker 1: so much, greatly appreciate your thank you. Bloomberg's surveillance to
Speaker 1: just now talk with Winthin and Brown Brothers Harman with
Speaker 1: a really unique perspective on UM Eastern European and emerging
Speaker 1: market currencies and what they signal went to. And let's
Speaker 1: talk first of all about the core question is is
Speaker 1: Chairman Powell the central banker to the emerging markets? Let's
Speaker 1: say he's in some ways he's the central banker to
Speaker 1: the world, right. I mean a lot of eyes are
Speaker 1: obviously on ecb UH this week, Big Bank, Japan, BANKAM
Speaker 1: England next week. But really the feed is still the
Speaker 1: really the main driver for global markets, and I think
Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons I remain fairly nervous, thought
Speaker 1: e M. Mr Powell. Um, they continuing with the tightening
Speaker 1: path that Michellan set forth the signal two more hikes.
Speaker 1: This here em in general does poorly in a set
Speaker 1: tightening environment. So we've got the idiosyncratic stories Argentina, Turkey, etcetera.
Speaker 1: Let me talk about Philippines, which has been extremely well
Speaker 1: managed at the one at the fifty three level, folks,
Speaker 1: this has been a much weaker Philippine Peso and then
Speaker 1: in some real stability in Philippine Peso, how are they
Speaker 1: doing that well. As you probably know, most currencies and
Speaker 1: emerging markets are are heavily managed. Uh. You know, I
Speaker 1: can really count on one and one or two hands
Speaker 1: and the number of EM currencies that are really freely tradeable.
Speaker 1: For the most part, they're heavily managed. We have a
Speaker 1: combination of UM intervention stealth intervention. Uh. We are in
Speaker 1: a tightening cycle and in many EM right now. I
Speaker 1: think that's if you want take a step back, that's
Speaker 1: to me, it's a big game changer for e M. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, EM has benefit from zero rates around for
Speaker 1: the dark world for almost a decade if not more,
Speaker 1: and we're finally getting out of that. And because that,
Speaker 1: we're seeing a repricing of e M assets, UM equity,
Speaker 1: fixed income, exchange rates were and I think we're still
Speaker 1: in the early days adjustment. But in general I look
Speaker 1: for higher EM interest rates as well as weaker EM
Speaker 1: currencies and some combination thereof thin tell us about China
Speaker 1: monetary easing in China, you know, it's China. It's interesting.
Speaker 1: You know, they've been trying to de leverage, they've been
Speaker 1: trying to get away from the sort of debt fueled
Speaker 1: growth that we've seen over the past decade. But any
Speaker 1: time the the economy slows we get a hiccup, they
Speaker 1: seem to go back to plan A. Uh. So obviously
Speaker 1: with this last week, we've seen some easing measures. Uh
Speaker 1: this comes after some soft data out of China June
Speaker 1: July bottom line, and I found like the broken records.
Speaker 1: I say it every time, my bottom base case bottom
Speaker 1: line is that they muddled through. I don't see any
Speaker 1: sort of big devaluation. I don't see any sort of
Speaker 1: financial crisis out of China over the next several years,
Speaker 1: but we are dealing with slower growth. I don't think
Speaker 1: they are propacy devaluing the currency. If you look at
Speaker 1: the the performance of the yuan on your w c
Speaker 1: r S page year to day, it's still one of
Speaker 1: the better performing m currency. So it's following the rest
Speaker 1: of the market. It's really strong dollar story that we're
Speaker 1: seeing right now. Do you believe that China is moving countercyclically, Well, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think they professed to want to to
Speaker 1: continue to de leverage um to you know, not lie
Speaker 1: on debt, new loans, etcetera, and growth, But when push
Speaker 1: comes to shove, I did to get nervous and growth
Speaker 1: starts falling with it too fast, and so we still
Speaker 1: see them so stepping on a gas little bit um.
Speaker 1: You know again it's it's not long term, it's not
Speaker 1: it's not optimal, but you know, it's sort it's sort
Speaker 1: of the one in tier to your outlook. They can
Speaker 1: muddle through. Dr Sin, Thank you so much, Gin saying
Speaker 1: with Brown Brothers Harriman this morning. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio