1 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. We're back. I'm so excited. A 2 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: it is the middle of the week. I don't even 3 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: know what day it is. I am Chad Millman of 4 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: the Action Network. This is the Favorites. I'm looking on 5 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: my window in the wilds of Connecticut and it just 6 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: started snowing. The latest snowstorm that has shut down the schools, 7 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: sent my kids into a tizzy. Uh canceled all the plans. 8 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: UM is finally arriving and on the phone Trooper and 9 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: through Bookmaker to the world from New Orleans and Boyd Gaming. 10 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, my man, Chad, what's going on? Listen? 11 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: I know you're soldiering through this because you've got a 12 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: toothache and you're going to the dentist, and so I 13 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: appreciate it. No problem. You know what you're gonna miss 14 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: though later on in the show. Chris Raban, who was 15 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: one of our genius Action Network writers, regularly appears on 16 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,919 Speaker 1: the Action Networks NFL podcast. UM one of the best 17 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: DFS fantasy prognosticators, modelers, and rankers in the world. He 18 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: wrote an amazing story about UM using very specific and 19 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: sort of sophisticated metrics to determine which are the eleven 20 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: NFL teams you should bet on to win the Super 21 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: Bowl next year. And he sort of broke get down 22 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: and figured out, like, the teams that have won the 23 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: Super Bowl every year have uh come from this pool 24 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: that have sort of been able to match the metrics 25 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 1: that he figured out. And so we're gonna talk about 26 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: which eleven teams are the best value and so you're 27 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 1: gonna miss that, And I'm sorry for you. Now that's 28 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: how how long has he been doing that? How many years? 29 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 1: He first one? First one? You know how it came about. 30 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: We sat with Chris Raybon at the end of the 31 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: year and me and Scott Miller, who really does all 32 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: the work at Action Network, and we're like, listen, let's 33 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: think about some fun ideas. We want you to have 34 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: something you can do every week now that we're out 35 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 1: of fantasy season. And we sort of modeled and brainstormed, 36 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: and uh, this was not any of the ideas that 37 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: we came up with. He came up with his all 38 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: on his own. Nice I like it, but I'd like 39 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: to think that sort of just the meeting inspired him 40 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: to think differently. So sometimes it's not about what you 41 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: come out with in that actual meeting. It's about reframing 42 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: how you think about what you're doing. Sure, sure, that's 43 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: how I lead. I'd buy it totally. Listen, just one 44 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: quick update on the Year of Kindness, and we've got 45 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: a very special ad that I think is keeping with 46 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: the Year of Kindness. Later in the show, I'm going 47 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: to spring that on the listeners, and I think they're 48 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: gonna be excited to hear it. Um. I continue to 49 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: not be able to get anybody in my house to 50 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: contribute to the Year of Kindness. Oh come on, really, 51 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: so I am going to relay it to you, Scooch. 52 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: I want you to feel better. That's very kind of you. 53 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: Thank you. Hey, there's a lot to talk about. Uh, 54 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: do you have anything on your mind specifically, because I 55 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: have a lot on my mind. No, your mind. Uh. 56 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: First of all, we took a week off after the 57 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, Um, just because it was crazy and busy 58 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. But um, how did 59 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: they get your prop up in Vegas? Contest winner do 60 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: The prop was referees penalty except the penalty yards for 61 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: both teams versus the field goal. It was a wacky 62 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: game total field your field goal yards kicked? So what one? 63 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: So the the field goal yards there were three field goals. Uh, 64 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: there was a fifty three yarder and a couple of 65 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: forty forty something yarders. So so the field goal one, 66 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 1: and we talked about how we thought that that would 67 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: be the favorite. They did bet it. You know, we 68 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: initially hung it. Uh pick them and the first couple 69 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: of bets right out of the gate, we're on the 70 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: field goal yardists. So we ended up closing it. A 71 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 1: field goal yard is minus four and a half yards 72 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:47,239 Speaker 1: and minus a dollar forty. Uh, they were still laying 73 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: it a little bit, so we didn't win on that prop. 74 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 1: There were very few uh penalties called in that game. 75 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: I don't even remember a pass interference call. I'm sure 76 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: there was one or two, but very few flags thrown 77 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: in that game. Well, there was really only one penalty 78 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,119 Speaker 1: that mattered. It was a holding call on a big 79 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: Todd Gurley run that I really think changed the game. 80 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: And we're not going to spend too much time talking 81 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: about the game just because it's now two weeks old. 82 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: But um, how much money was bet on to get 83 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,599 Speaker 1: your prop up in Vegas contest? Problem? Uh? There was 84 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: probably between I won't say a little more than six thousand. 85 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: It's pretty good, which is pretty good, which is pretty good. Yeah, 86 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: that's that's real good. I mean, this guy out of 87 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 1: nowhere created a prop and like it brought in six 88 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: grand and handle at the Orleans Yeah, yeah, I mean 89 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: that's fantastic. That's actually, uh, that's pretty good. I mean 90 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: we didn't win on it, which is bad. But you know, 91 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: maybe he was able to place a place a few 92 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: dollars on it. I don't know, We'll have to we'll 93 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: have to find out someday. It feels more like a 94 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: your problem than in my problem. Definitely is maybe you 95 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: had made a better line. You know, you should have 96 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: know when you're getting into your bookmaker. Totally true. I'm 97 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna throw that back on Jake, you know, 98 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: I yelled at him a little bit. Was there a 99 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:13,799 Speaker 1: prop that what was the lowest handle for any prop? Oh, 100 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: the lowest handle for any proph? God, we know there 101 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: were so many of them out there. There was There 102 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: was a couple of them where we wrote probably less 103 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: than less than five hundred dollars. Yeah, there was a 104 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: couple of them, but you can't remember them. I I 105 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: can't remember which one was there there. We were going 106 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: through so many of those, I mean, uh, it was 107 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 1: probably you know, we we had a couple of I 108 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: want to say, the number of the number of saves 109 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: by Flurry for the Vegas Golden Knights versus the number 110 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: versus a total Rams points scored. Uh. And and it 111 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 1: was more for kind conversation to have the kind of 112 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: cross prop up there and just to have the kind 113 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: of a local flavor with the Vegas Golden Knights. But 114 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: that really didn't that really didn't draw a whole lot 115 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: of action. Uh. Well, and thank god it didn't, because 116 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: people probably would have bet on Flurry and like he 117 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: definitely probably had more saves that night than the Ramsey points. Yeah, 118 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: there was a couple of them that kind of surprises. 119 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: We put up one with Steph Curtry's total number of 120 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: points scored, uh that that morning versus the total number 121 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: of points scored by the Patriots, And the final tally 122 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: was like fourteen to thirteen because Curry only scoured fourteen 123 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: points and we're like, well, this one seems like an 124 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: automatic winner, and then the Patriots only put up thirteen. Yeah, 125 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: that was insane. Everything went out the window with that game. 126 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: What what was amazing to me about that week and 127 00:07:56,640 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: what is continued is that the NBA dominates the conversation. 128 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: But yeah, go ahead, no, go ahead, you're gonna say something. No, Well, 129 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: especially with all the you know, the trade rumors and 130 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: that that that was really kind of the conversation. So 131 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: how do you manage that as a bookmaker? Like, it's 132 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: nothing that you're seeing directly on the floor, but Anthony 133 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: Davis to the Lakers starts to potentially change what the 134 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: odds might be for the Lakers or you know, any 135 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: other sort of trade rumors that could be happening. Um, 136 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: are you adjusting on the fly? Are you making are 137 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: you making adjustments based on based on rumors? You know 138 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: that kind of thing. What happens, Yeah, we try to 139 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: adjust them down. Fortunately, a lot of the um, the 140 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 1: favorites to win the NBA Championship are pretty kind of solid. 141 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: We talked about this before. You You've got a handful 142 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: of teams that are really contenders, and then there's a 143 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: big disparity between the rest of the teams and there's 144 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: really no team that's in that like thirty one forty 145 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: one category that's suddenly going to catapult them up into 146 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 1: one of the top two or three favorites just by 147 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: by one player. Uh, you know, not even not even 148 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: the Lakers. So um, there's not too much, but we do, 149 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: but we do adjust. I mean when when you have 150 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: a player like Anthony Davis and uh, you have to 151 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: you have to make some adjustments. Uh. You know, we've 152 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: got burned a lot of times in the past by 153 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: just missing out on the rumor. And then you know, 154 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: we wait, we have to find out after we start 155 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 1: getting these you know, these big bets coming in on 156 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: a fairly long shot, and then we find out the 157 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: rumor that players going to a specific team. So we 158 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: just have to monitor it every day and just kind 159 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 1: of keep up on all the the news wires and 160 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: just like you said, it just on the fly. Aren't 161 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: you tapped in? I mean remember when you knew about 162 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: the apody else? Yeah, most of the time, I mean 163 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: were most of the time, we're we get the information, 164 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: uh before anybody else. But there's a there's a few times, 165 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: I mean going back, Uh god, I remember, like we 166 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: really got burned about what ten years ago, twelve years 167 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: ago when h Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and everyone 168 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 1: what the big trades that the Celtics got, all these 169 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: big players, and they started out the year I wanted 170 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: to say hundreds to one hundred and fifty two one, 171 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: and then they ended up being the favorites within a 172 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: matter of a month or two, and then they won 173 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: the championship. That was a bad year for us. But seriously, 174 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: how often do you know before anybody else knows? You don't? 175 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 1: We rely on a lot of the betters, and it 176 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: seems like the better some of the betters that are 177 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: dialed in sometimes get information before any even the news outlets. 178 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: So I wouldn't say it's often, but between between the 179 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,439 Speaker 1: betters that are dialed in and and then the news 180 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: outlets themselves, I mean, we get it before the rest 181 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: of the public. I'm not gonna say we get it 182 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: before before a lot of the reporters get it, but 183 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: there are sometimes that we do, and it's mainly because 184 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: of this large network of kind of professional betters. They 185 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: are out there that have some kind of context that 186 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: maybe they do know something a rumor before before it's 187 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: even released. So how does it work? Give me a breakdown, 188 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: like what exactly happens and tell me what happens. Well, 189 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: I mean, in cases where we know who the better is, 190 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: let's say, well, get it better that comes in and 191 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: wants to bet us on this particular team that you 192 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 1: know one, it's not usually the type of wager that 193 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: a professional better will make. So in the cases where 194 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,359 Speaker 1: we know the professional better, it's kind of a gentleman's 195 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: agreement a lot of times where uh, you know, we 196 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: give them the bed and then it's like, you know, hey, 197 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: what's going on? And some times they know somebody who 198 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: knows somebody that that's what the rumor was. And then 199 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: sometimes it pans out where you know, you find out 200 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 1: a couple of days later, somebody will break the story 201 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: that someone's going to be traded, and sometimes it turns 202 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 1: out to be nothing. But that's generally how how it 203 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: happens with with the betters that we know. With the 204 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: better that we don't know, it's still you know, uh, 205 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 1: kind of an odd wager that they don't generally make. 206 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: So we'll try to do some research on our own. 207 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: We'll try to find out what's going on, and um, 208 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: like I said, sometimes we find out before it breaks, 209 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: but and sometimes we don't. That is so interesting. I 210 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: don't think we've ever discussed that. So you will have 211 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: a guy come up to you, and this is where 212 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: like betters are so plugged in. They get information, they 213 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: come to make the bet. They will make a bet 214 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: that seems odd to you. You will allow them to 215 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: make the bat, and then you will say, all right, 216 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: we'll let you make the bat. Give us scoop pretty 217 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: pretty much. Yeah, I mean it happens sometimes with injuries 218 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: on a on a game. Um, not not just trade 219 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: rumors or or you know, personnel moves, but it'll also 220 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: be uh, you know, on injuries. Um, sometimes somebody gets 221 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: a wind of a possible injury before it before it's 222 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,719 Speaker 1: kind of released, and or they find out that uh, 223 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: you know, player has got the flu before it's released, 224 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: something something like that. Uh, and then when they make 225 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: the wager, it's like, okay, what's going on here? And 226 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: again these are with kind of the professional betters that 227 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: that we've come to know over the years. It's a 228 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 1: different story with somebody that you don't know, but um, 229 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 1: we've kind of grown to know most of them over 230 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 1: the last twenty years. All Right, this, this is this 231 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 1: is interesting. This conversation is taking a different turn than 232 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: I expected. Um, we're not know where we're going to go, right, 233 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: We just kind of But here's the thing, this is like, 234 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: this is what I think a lot of the league's 235 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: and the players worry about the most. It isn't It 236 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: isn't games being fixed. It is injury information or players 237 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: being players at a lower level being compromised to get 238 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: inside information for betters. Right. And I had this conversation 239 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: with some people at the n C Double A because 240 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: they're in a whole different ball game where they don't 241 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: need to officially release player injury information the way you know, 242 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: the the NFL is very structured with it the NBA 243 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: and they have to uh you know, they have some protocols, 244 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: where as the n C Double A kind of struggles 245 00:14:54,840 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: with the hippo laws that protects the players privacies. Verse is, 246 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: do should we get this information out there at all? 247 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: Or should we let it kind of be like black 248 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: market information. It's kind of which one, which one's worse? 249 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: Which one, you know, having having the n C A 250 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: Double A actually released some information or on on key 251 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: personnel or just have it be a rumor out there. Uh. 252 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 1: You know there's been in cases in the past with 253 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: big name players in championship games where it's kind of 254 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: a well known rumor, but it's still unofficial because there 255 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: are no official means of getting that information out there. 256 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 1: So it's something that's really going to have to be 257 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: brought to the forefront. As you know, sports betting gets 258 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: pushed in a lot of these new new jurisdictions. But 259 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: at the professional level, players I know have told me 260 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: that they worry most about their third string cornerback taking 261 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: you know, an extra hundred thousand dollars over the course 262 00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: of a season to give legit injury the information about 263 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: the first string middle linebacker, um two gamblers. I mean, 264 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: it's a big risk. But you know, I think that 265 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: kind of thing existed, you know, before the proliferation of 266 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: sports betting. I mean that that kind of information was 267 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: that that was kind of a problem all the way 268 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: back many years. So and I wouldn't say it's a 269 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: it's a problem. I want to retract that it it's 270 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: just a concern. Well, I was gonna say, like, you 271 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: don't need professional betting for someone who to want to 272 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: build a relationship with the player and pay them to 273 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: get inside information. But how much how much of that 274 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: do you think goes on right now? Like, how much 275 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: do you think professional betters are tapped into teams to 276 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: get this information? Well, where do you think that information 277 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: comes from? I think the information comes from people that 278 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: are surrounded surrounding the team, like, uh, at a distance, 279 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 1: they're not directly respond they're not directly involved with the team, 280 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: but it's somebody kind of on the outskirts that they 281 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: have access two some of the team members, uh, you know, 282 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,400 Speaker 1: or or at the college level, they're you know, friends 283 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: with friends. But I don't know that it goes on 284 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: as much as you know, I know where the conversation 285 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: kind of turned here, but I don't want to apply 286 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: that this kind of thing actually goes on at at 287 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 1: a uh, you know, a big level. Oh, I don't 288 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: think it goes on at a big level. I'm always curious, 289 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 1: like where are these betters, How these betters get this information? 290 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: Like why are they so tapped in? What do they know? 291 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: Who do they know? Sure? Sure? I mean, I mean 292 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 1: it's I mean picture, Let's say you're you're you're in 293 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: college and you're in classes with the starting quarterback and 294 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: three or four of the key guys on a team 295 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 1: and you you have access to the weight room, and 296 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: so you're there, you're lifting weights with the guys. You're 297 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 1: about ten onety feet away, and you hear, you know, 298 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: the quarterback's lifting weights or something complain about you know, 299 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 1: these pains in his right shoulder or something. I mean, 300 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 1: it could be so innoculous, but it may have. You know, 301 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 1: this guy comes away thinking he's got inside her information. Uh. 302 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: And like I said, it's sometimes most of the time 303 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 1: it just turns out to be a rumor. But um, 304 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: it's kind of the same thing with like a stock market. 305 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 1: You overhear a couple of people that are on the 306 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: on the board of some company and they you overhear 307 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: him talking about something that you think is inside information, 308 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: and then you know you may or may not think 309 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 1: it's worth buying a stock. Wow, that's fascinating. How much 310 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 1: do you think that changes with professional with legalization happening 311 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: in more states, do more people jump into the pool? 312 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,360 Speaker 1: Does it be become harder to get information, Like it's 313 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: its harder for the guys in Vegas to get information. 314 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: What do you think happens. I think it's I think 315 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 1: it's brought to the forefront and think it's more out 316 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: in the open, so it's probably much harder. You talk 317 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: to a lot of the gamblers from like twenty years 318 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 1: ago that used to get inside information from like newspapers 319 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: around the world and just different means of I think 320 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 1: it's harder for those guys to have an edge over 321 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: the bookmakers because now that information is transmitted to the 322 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 1: bookmakers much more easily. So I think it's much more 323 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 1: difficult for the professional betters now. Um, I don't think. 324 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: I don't think the I think it's probably going to 325 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: be less and less of a concern as it's kind 326 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: of addressed. And I think education is a big part 327 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: of it. When I talk to kind of league officials 328 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 1: and and uh, like I said, the n C double 329 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 1: at people. People at the right levels are aware of 330 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: these kind of things. So I think education is the 331 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,679 Speaker 1: biggest part. Educate the athletes, uh, you know, not to 332 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: try and divulge information that people you don't know or 333 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 1: you just wary of it. So it's gonna be less 334 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 1: and less of a concern as more states of legalize gambling. 335 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: Guess what, the field is getting leveled. That's what that 336 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: sounds like to me. It's getting easier and easier for 337 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: you know, not me, because I'm already practically a professional, 338 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: but like you know, I've won my last three NBA bets. Um, 339 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: But for people who aren't like me, yeah, I mean, um. 340 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 1: I was at the the I think you were at 341 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 1: the ICE Conference as well in New York, and I 342 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 1: think Vic Solerno, longtime bookmaker out here in Vegas, was 343 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 1: on one of the panels and he kind of addressed 344 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: that with the NBA, saying everybody in the world knew 345 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: that Lebron's hand was was heard or broken, and yet 346 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: there was no official release that that you know, from 347 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 1: the league or from the team that his hand was 348 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: was injured. You know, as people are making these these 349 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: big bets on on the game and you're seeing the 350 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: line swing to three points. So so it's definitely something 351 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: people are talking about. Um. Listen, I want to tell 352 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 1: you there's a guy at the Action Network named Justin 353 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: Fan and he runs you know, one of the one 354 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 1: of the companies that actually networks is called Fantasy Labs, 355 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: and Fantasy Labs has a Twitter feed that is like 356 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 1: the premier news feed if you want to keep up 357 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: with what's happening in the NBA and it's run by 358 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,400 Speaker 1: Justin fan Like any injury, any lineup move that's coming 359 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: out is on Fantasy Labs seconds after it's reported. It's 360 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: almost like Justin is one of those betters who has 361 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 1: the inside info and he puts it out on Twitter 362 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: for our fans the same way that like your betters 363 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,119 Speaker 1: come to the counter and make those bets. Right, he 364 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 1: is that looked in. He is also an incredible NBA 365 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 1: better and very selective. And we call it the fan Wagon. 366 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: It's his name is spelled p j N. We call 367 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: it the fan Wagon because you can follow Justin in 368 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: the Action Network app, and so you can make any 369 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 1: bet that he's making. And so every time Justin makes 370 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,880 Speaker 1: a bet, you will see everybody in our office, uh 371 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 1: start to like you can follow everybody else, and like 372 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: all a sudden, you see Jab Millman just bet Utah 373 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: minus six and a half. You know, Rob Perezh just 374 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: just bet Utah minus six and a half. Like it 375 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: goes down the line like everybody is betting the same 376 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: bet that Justin makes. And so this past weekend I 377 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 1: bet Utah minus six and a half. I bet Orlando 378 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: plus eleven against Milwaukee, and it was like almost simultaneous 379 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: with when it was listed that Janice was not going 380 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: to be playing that night. Wow, that makes me an insider. 381 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: What makes just a fan insider? It makes me a 382 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 1: member of the fan wagon. There you go that it is. Yeah, 383 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: it's fascinating, isn't it? It is fascinating. It's how the 384 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: world goes around. Information is the most important thing. Uh. 385 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 1: Speaking of information, I want you to handicap something for 386 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 1: me right now. If you could take and then I'm 387 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 1: gonna let you go because I know you have a 388 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: bad toothache. If and we're also gonna bring Chris Raybond 389 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 1: on another Action network genius. If you could handicap the 390 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: the who will be taken first in the NFL Draft, 391 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 1: the who will win best picture in the oscars um 392 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: or just a a f games. Of those three, which 393 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: would get the most action? I would say definitely the 394 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: Oscars Really Yeah? Yeah? Why you know we we've started 395 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: booking the draft a couple couple of years ago. We 396 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 1: petitioned the the Nevatic Game and control board, and there 397 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 1: was not as much ah interest in terms of betting 398 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: on it as you would have thought. Now, maybe that'll 399 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: pick up, but we know there's always been interest on 400 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 1: on the oscars, And I've spoken to people from New 401 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: Jersey who are actually have it up on on the board, 402 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,400 Speaker 1: and I guess you're closer there, you might you might 403 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 1: know more. But there's tremendous interest in it. Wow, that's 404 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 1: really cool. No, but why don't you do it? Like, 405 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: why don't you do the askers? Well, it's just it's 406 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 1: the regulators, you know. That's one thing we're learning. Each 407 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 1: state is different in terms of their laws and their regulations. 408 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: We've been pushing for for for a lot of years. 409 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 1: And eventually we'll see how it goes in New Jersey 410 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: and uh and then see if the regulators have a 411 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:30,400 Speaker 1: different stance. But I think eventually it will come. Yeah, 412 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: you guys gotta get on that because otherwise New Jersey 413 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: is gonna kick your ass. You know what I'm saying, 414 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: Like they are going to be so much more progressive 415 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: than you guys. It's gonna be ridiculous. You're gonna be 416 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: like what happened? Yep, we don't want that. You gotta 417 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 1: stay Disney World, man. People gotta believe that when they 418 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: come to Vegas, it's a special experience. They can't replicate it. 419 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: In Vague in New Jersey. Yep, Scoots, you're the best man. 420 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 1: I want you to feel better. You know what I'm saying. 421 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: I will. I will shortly on my way to the dentist. 422 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: Go get that novacaine. All right, thanks man, We're gonna 423 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: come right back to the podcast in one second. But 424 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: you know what, this podcast is blowing up. We've known 425 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 1: that for a while. You know what else we know 426 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,400 Speaker 1: guys are terrible at taking care of their health. Whether 427 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: it's a knee injury, a bad back, or something worse, 428 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: guys are usually more comfortable rubbing some dirt on it 429 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 1: than seeing a doctor. I'm guilty of it myself. Everybody 430 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: has heard the story of when I stayed in the 431 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: office for many, many days with an attack of penniesitis. 432 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 1: Just close magazine, Blackjack, What are you doing in my 433 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: read chead. There are some things in life you can't 434 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: rub some dirt on, or at least you shouldn't, And 435 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 1: one of those things is a rectile dysfunction, and studies 436 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 1: show that seventy of guys, including Jad Millman, who experienced 437 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: e D don't get treated for it. Thankfully, Roman has 438 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: created an easy way to get hard get checked out 439 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,119 Speaker 1: by a doctor, get treated for e D, and do 440 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: it all online. 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Get roman dot com slash favorites. 459 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 1: Get Roman, get Hard. Let's get back to that show. Alright, everybody, 460 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,640 Speaker 1: We're back. Chad had to run and get his free 461 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 1: online consults from Roman. But I'm black Jack Fletcher, and 462 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 1: joining me today is senior editor and NFL analyst at 463 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: the Action Network and our second best dressed man, Chris RayBan. 464 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: How you doing today, Chrissie. What's going on? My guy? Chris? 465 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 1: You wrote an article for The Action Network earlier this 466 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 1: week that is kind of fascinating. You said that there 467 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: are only eleven teams in the NFL worth making a 468 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: future bet to win Super Bowl fifty four on right. Yeah, 469 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 1: So what I thought was interesting was that, you know, 470 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: super Bowl futures are the only thing you can really 471 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 1: better one right now in the NFL. So I thought 472 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: i'd look at, you know, how teams performed this year 473 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 1: and what that can tell us about their Super Bowl 474 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: chances for next year. And it turns out that of 475 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 1: the last thirty two Super Bowl winners or thirty of 476 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 1: thirty two, they finished at least thirteenth in d V 477 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 1: O A, and they finished at least in the top 478 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 1: eight in one of the three phases Offense, defense, Special 479 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: teams Now, most most of those are offense defense, but 480 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: occasionally you'll see a team that gets bumped up a 481 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 1: little first, some special teams. But um, it's kind of 482 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 1: uncanny how you can just eliminate essentially two thirds of 483 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 1: the week by looking at their performance from the prior season. 484 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 1: But now, how do you do this without free agency? 485 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: The draft? I mean, the makeups of teams can change 486 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 1: pretty drastically, especially with some of the quarterbacks rumored to 487 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,239 Speaker 1: be out there. Uh, you know, you never know what 488 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: teams are gonna do in the draft. How do you 489 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: feel about about making those projections before those things happen? Well, 490 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 1: the purpose of this is not to really project exactly 491 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: who the Super Bowl winner is. It's to project who 492 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: it won't be. Right. So, right right around now, you 493 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: know a lot of people are kind of throwing throwing 494 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: things that the wall. They're throwing it at the wall, 495 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: see if it's sticks. Right with the Super Bowl bets, 496 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 1: and there's just a lot of teams that you shouldn't 497 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: betting on. The Packers they aren't included in this with 498 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: the Seahawks. A lot of teams that get people in 499 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: trouble because you feel like they have a chance it's 500 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 1: just hard to get that good that fast in the 501 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 1: NFL if you're not already excelling in one phase of 502 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: the game. It's just hard. It's too hard, you know, injuries, regression, 503 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 1: just so many things have to go right for a 504 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: team to you know, come from the middle of the 505 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 1: pack or lower and win a super Bowl, not get 506 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: but win a super Bowl. Okay, so you said that 507 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 1: this is not about picking who's gonna win the super Bowl, 508 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 1: but about who's not gonna win it. So having said 509 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: that who's gonna win the super Bowl, so the team 510 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 1: that actually I have as the so I did a 511 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: little projection, you know, with these with the eleven teams, who, 512 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 1: by the way, are the Saints, Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Ravens, Patriots, Bears, Steelers, Texans, Vikings, 513 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 1: and Broncos. So what I did was I took those 514 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: teams and essentially did a regression model looking at their 515 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: ranking in overall d v O A offense, defense, and 516 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 1: special teams, and I converted that to an implied probability 517 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: heavy mathunting accounting for still accounting for the remote possibility 518 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 1: of an outlier. By the way, because you don't want 519 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: to overvalue these teams either. So um, but yeah, so 520 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: the number one team is your guys, the New Orleans Saints. 521 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: Now we got rocked. Now you said you account for offense, defense, 522 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: special teams, all of those fancy math words you threw around, 523 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: But how do you account for heartbreak? Because that exists 524 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 1: in New Orleans right now, and I don't know how 525 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 1: you get past it. I mean, I think the bigger 526 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 1: story of the heartbreak is the you know, the teams 527 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 1: that weren't included. I mean, you know New Orleans. We 528 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 1: know they're gonna be motivation. Let me tell you something. 529 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 1: Chris Raybon's eleven teams are on their bulletin boards right 530 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: now in Cleveland and Green Bay and all those other cities. 531 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 1: They're saying, Raybon doesn't believe in us. You're motivating those teams. 532 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints. They're looking at this like, what 533 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 1: did this guy see the NFC Championship game? I mean, 534 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: did the Saints see the fourth quarter in overtime of 535 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,239 Speaker 1: the NFC champions are game? Because I didn't see them there. 536 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: So I'm just wonder when things are And yet this 537 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 1: is your top team, all right, So let's talk a 538 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 1: little bit about this team. Hold on, what was it? 539 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 1: This your top team since last preseason? I just asked 540 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 1: you who was going to win Super Bowl fifty four, 541 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: and you said, the New Orleans Saints. How do we 542 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: measure give me a metric. How do we measure heart? Uh? 543 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 1: Tom Brady's got it in spades. So we measure heart 544 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: by by how many bradies you have as a team. 545 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: So the Brady bunch. Oh, lots of bradies, lots of bradies. 546 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk about this list a little bit. 547 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 1: You've got a team on here that I You've got 548 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 1: actually three that I vehemently disagree with. The first one 549 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 1: is the Baltimore Ravens. You honestly think, with the way 550 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is as a passer and the weapons they have, 551 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 1: this team could realistically win a Super Bowl next year. 552 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 1: I think you can't rule it out. They're one of 553 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 1: the teams you can't rule out. And if you were, 554 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 1: remember I've ruled him out. Remember though, when you look back, 555 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: since the Bill Belichick Tom Brady dynasty has started, what 556 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,360 Speaker 1: you know that one team that's always kind of been 557 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,040 Speaker 1: in the mix, the Baltimore Ravens, and they actually did 558 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 1: get past the Patriots in that in that one year 559 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 1: when one time in eighteen, you know when Joe Flacco 560 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 1: kind of forgot who he was and was better than 561 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 1: that for a few games. But you know the thing 562 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 1: about the Ravens is they have the coaching staff, and 563 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: they have the defense, and they have a high upside quarterback. Now, 564 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 1: if he's the same guy that was about to get 565 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 1: benched in the most important game of the year, then 566 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: of course it's out. But all I'm saying is that 567 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 1: the Ravens are a team unlike a lot of other 568 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: teams in the NFL. You don't you can't rule them 569 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,760 Speaker 1: out yet according to according to these Well, let's move 570 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 1: on to the other two that I have an issue with. 571 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 1: The first is the Minnesota Vikings. Have you seen Kirk 572 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 1: Cousins play in primetime? He's not good. He's not good 573 00:32:55,880 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: in primetime at all. No. I mean, if Kirk Cousins 574 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 1: plays that way in prime time, Kirk Cousins might want 575 00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 1: to invest in some Roman for primetime at home, if 576 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Um, how do you have 577 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,880 Speaker 1: them on this list with him at quarterback? Because they 578 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 1: have a defense. Again, this is this list is not 579 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 1: to project exactly who's gonna win what it is. No, 580 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 1: But look, here's the thing. The whole point of this 581 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: is that you're looking at the teams that they're already 582 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 1: good enough that they could make a one year improvement. 583 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,280 Speaker 1: What it's saying is that for most teams in the league, 584 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 1: about two thirds of the week, building a contender is 585 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 1: going to be at least a two year process. For 586 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,080 Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, they already have a defense, they have 587 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 1: a average quarterback, and they have some good pieces on offense. 588 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 1: They have a pretty solid coach in Mike Zimmer. They 589 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 1: can get it done. You shouldn't rule them out. That's 590 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: all we're saying. We're not saying, go bet on the 591 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,560 Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. Were saying, if you're making your futures bet 592 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: you should probably be ruling out twenty one of the 593 00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 1: thirty two teams. The Vikings are not one of them. 594 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 1: All right, one other team have on here before we 595 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:05,040 Speaker 1: get some of the ones you've left off. The Denver Broncos. Listen, 596 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 1: nobody was higher on Denver than I was to start 597 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 1: last year. I had them winning the a f C 598 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:13,400 Speaker 1: West Wrong on that one. Um, How in the world 599 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 1: do you see them not only possibly surpassing the Chargers 600 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 1: and the Chiefs, but winning a Super Bowl. There is 601 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: no bigger fan of Case the Machine keenom than than I. 602 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 1: But how do you see that? Well, I think it 603 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,439 Speaker 1: starts with addition. By subtraction, you get Van's Joseph out 604 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:36,600 Speaker 1: of there, and that is already just a major step up. 605 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,359 Speaker 1: What people didn't realize about the Broncos were that they 606 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 1: were actually a top five team in defensive d v 607 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,719 Speaker 1: o A and they were above averageing on offense as well. 608 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 1: So I want to stop you for one second. Can 609 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: you explain to our audience what d v o A 610 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,400 Speaker 1: and me right? So, d v o A is a 611 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 1: it's a Football Outsiders metric and it essentially grades every 612 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 1: play by the way it contributes to ultimately winning the game, 613 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,280 Speaker 1: and then it takes that in adjust for strength of schedule, 614 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: and it's just defense adjusted value over average. That's what 615 00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 1: it is. So if you have a ten percent d 616 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:08,680 Speaker 1: v o A, that means you're ten percent better than 617 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,720 Speaker 1: the average team at whatever we're discussing, whether it's offensive. 618 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: Thank you that help. Okay, so now let's talk a 619 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,879 Speaker 1: little bit about some of the teams you've left off 620 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:22,319 Speaker 1: here and one omission that I find glaring is the 621 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. You don't think that that team has a 622 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,239 Speaker 1: reasonable chance to win a Super Bowl next this The 623 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 1: model doesn't think. I don't think your model, I don't think. 624 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 1: To me, I don't think they do. I thought they 625 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 1: did this year, um, and I was really high on them. 626 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 1: But you know, the number show, you know, the numbers 627 00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: show that it's not surprising that they didn't, and it's 628 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 1: they show that it's going to be really difficult for 629 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,120 Speaker 1: them to kind of get back to where they were 630 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,399 Speaker 1: two years ago. They had a big drop off um 631 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 1: from this year to last year. And what a lot 632 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:50,320 Speaker 1: of people don't realize is when they came out of 633 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,640 Speaker 1: it seemed like they came out of nowhere to win 634 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl the year before. They were actually one 635 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 1: of the better teams in terms of d V away 636 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 1: the year before that. And so that's what we're trying 637 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 1: to find with these models. We're trying to kind of say, 638 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,640 Speaker 1: these are the teams that have a shot, and these 639 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,359 Speaker 1: are the teams that don't. And the Eagles are kind 640 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,880 Speaker 1: of a little too. You know, they're above average and 641 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,120 Speaker 1: a lot of facets, but we don't know we don't. 642 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,319 Speaker 1: What about the New York Giants, se Kwon Barfley year two, 643 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,560 Speaker 1: Odell Beckham healthy, potentially someone other than the mouth breathing 644 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:24,120 Speaker 1: Eli Manning at quarterback. Do you see them possibly going 645 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,359 Speaker 1: on a run? Why not? I think they could make 646 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,360 Speaker 1: an improvement in terms of their wins. And that's the 647 00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,319 Speaker 1: big upshot of this. It's that there are a lot 648 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 1: of teams that can improve, but don't bet on them 649 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,920 Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Win totals, bet on their 650 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,160 Speaker 1: playoff odds, their Super Bowl odds are you're just throwing 651 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,120 Speaker 1: your mo away essentially. All right, let me ask you 652 00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 1: one more here, and this is one I think a 653 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,760 Speaker 1: lot of people are talking about right now. The Cleveland Browns, 654 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,400 Speaker 1: And this this is a two part question, so stay focused. 655 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: The Browns just signed Kareem Hunt yesterday, controversial signing, obviously 656 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: off of the issues that he had last year. Can 657 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,760 Speaker 1: the city releasing him? Cleveland picks him up pretty quickly 658 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 1: in the off season. Here releases a I'll describe it 659 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:12,040 Speaker 1: as a vanilla statement about the signing. What do you 660 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: think about the signing and what does he do for 661 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,479 Speaker 1: their chances? Assuming he's back on the field in week 662 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 1: five or week seven, you know the signing was. It 663 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 1: kind of caught me off guard a little bit. I 664 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:27,759 Speaker 1: think if you look at teams that have been, you know, contenders. 665 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 1: You look at Sean McVeigh this year and what he 666 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,880 Speaker 1: did with c. J. Anderson and Todd Gurley, Bill Belichick 667 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 1: has been doing forever, rotating to three four backs. You 668 00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,560 Speaker 1: can't count on backs to stay healthy, but you need 669 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 1: a lot of backs. They touched the ball more than 670 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 1: any other player on your team, and so the more 671 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,359 Speaker 1: good backs you can have, the better. So I think 672 00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: it increases their chances. However, the numbers show that a 673 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:52,520 Speaker 1: team like Cleveland they're still probably a year away. We 674 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,120 Speaker 1: have better than chance that they're at least a year away. 675 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,080 Speaker 1: And that's the big takeaway. A lot of the teams 676 00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:58,640 Speaker 1: that were really high on that we think are going 677 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:02,720 Speaker 1: to make big improvement next year again, hit the win totals, 678 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 1: hit the playoff markets, the Super Bowl odds a little 679 00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,399 Speaker 1: bit out of reach. Check back next year, see where 680 00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,680 Speaker 1: they are. That will give you a better indication of 681 00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,520 Speaker 1: their of their future chances. Al Right, so let me 682 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,959 Speaker 1: ask you this, Chris Raybond. Time for you to sit 683 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,719 Speaker 1: squarely on the hot seat. Which Super Bowl futures are 684 00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,959 Speaker 1: you betting? I am betting on the Houston Texans because 685 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 1: you know, I love me some Deshaun Watson. We saw 686 00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: what he did in year one. They kind of had 687 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 1: some offensive line problems this year. They didn't get in 688 00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 1: as many shootouts, but he's still bald. Deshaun Watson and 689 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 1: the Texans I'm betting on. I'm betting on the Kansas 690 00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,200 Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Remember, the Patriots have not won back to 691 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,440 Speaker 1: back Super Bowl since the oh for oh five seasons, 692 00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 1: so it's been a while since they've won two in 693 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: a row. We've been wat since they've won two in 694 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,440 Speaker 1: a row. Probably will probably get to the SC Championship game, 695 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,879 Speaker 1: but their season doesn't start championship pretty much. I agree 696 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,960 Speaker 1: with you about Kansas City pick. I think that team 697 00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 1: is when this New England died to see. Eventually, I'm 698 00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,879 Speaker 1: assuming it has to end at some point. Does end, 699 00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,080 Speaker 1: Kansas City feels like the next team to kind of 700 00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:08,960 Speaker 1: step up and take the reins. And I should note 701 00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,920 Speaker 1: that it's kind of interesting that there's seven a FC 702 00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 1: teams and only four NFC teams, so you know they're 703 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,280 Speaker 1: the Patriots do have a little competition this time around. 704 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,880 Speaker 1: I mean, anytime you're you're gonna face Patrick Mahomes and 705 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:25,080 Speaker 1: potentially again in you know, his home, it's gonna be tough. 706 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,120 Speaker 1: But um, you know, I think the Patriots still have 707 00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 1: as good as shot as anyone. But again, you know, 708 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,440 Speaker 1: they don't win everywhere, and there's not really any value 709 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,680 Speaker 1: on that. I'm glad you you're mentioning the Patriots here, Christy, 710 00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 1: What do you see happening there? I mean, what what 711 00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:44,560 Speaker 1: does for the New England Patriots? You know, I think 712 00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,480 Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be more of the same because if 713 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 1: you look at Tom Brady and what he's been able 714 00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:53,480 Speaker 1: to do quarterbacks, intelligence is such a big factor. You know, 715 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:58,440 Speaker 1: the athletic decline, Yeah, maybe it's happening slightly, but you 716 00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,880 Speaker 1: have Belichick game planning, and you have Tom Brady making 717 00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,160 Speaker 1: decisions before the snap and after the snap, they're gonna 718 00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:06,560 Speaker 1: be able to get it done. I mean, their game 719 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,640 Speaker 1: plan in the Super Bowl against the Rams was brilliant 720 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,719 Speaker 1: and that's not going to change. So I think they'll 721 00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,320 Speaker 1: be in the conversation until Tom Brady retires or Belichick retires. 722 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:18,759 Speaker 1: Do they win another Super Bowl? I'm gonna say no, 723 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,439 Speaker 1: Raybonds got the dynasty over. Now he's given bulletin board 724 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,560 Speaker 1: material to New England. All right, Chris, you just motivated 725 00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,399 Speaker 1: them for the move forward. Chris, thank you so much 726 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,839 Speaker 1: for talking to us about your eleven teams. Here. If 727 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 1: Chad were here, this is where the show would end. 728 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,839 Speaker 1: But he's not, and it won't. Chris. I know you're 729 00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,400 Speaker 1: just like me, a big Cinophile. We've got the Oscars 730 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:38,840 Speaker 1: coming up at the end of this month chat and 731 00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,439 Speaker 1: I'll be talking about this later this week. But while 732 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:43,520 Speaker 1: you're here, I want to get your take. Give me 733 00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,160 Speaker 1: some of your picks for the big awards. So I 734 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,279 Speaker 1: like for Best Supporting Actress like Regina King from If 735 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,279 Speaker 1: bo Street Could Talk. Favorites have won that awards seven 736 00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,680 Speaker 1: years in a row. She's the favorite. Same thing for 737 00:40:54,800 --> 00:41:01,040 Speaker 1: Rommy Mallett. No, No, Bradley Cooper plus eighteen hundred. I 738 00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:05,040 Speaker 1: watched the movie again on Sunday night. The emotional depth, 739 00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,840 Speaker 1: range and the fact that he made himself a singer. 740 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,960 Speaker 1: He didn't just play a singer like Rommy Malick. He 741 00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 1: made himself actually to a Grammy Award winning singer black Jack. 742 00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,239 Speaker 1: They don't give the award for who made you cry 743 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:22,040 Speaker 1: the most. That's not the point, award, that's not the point. 744 00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:26,279 Speaker 1: But I do like Green Book for Best Picture. Now, 745 00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:32,719 Speaker 1: controversy there about Shirley and his family and there is, 746 00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,919 Speaker 1: but I feel like the the next it's just going 747 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,480 Speaker 1: to I think the Academy still enjoyed the movie, and 748 00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 1: I think, you know, the way they kind of presented 749 00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,239 Speaker 1: the story of like you know you have this, you 750 00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,319 Speaker 1: know this kind of by racial friendship going on and 751 00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:48,319 Speaker 1: all these things, I think they're still gonna dig it, 752 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:49,960 Speaker 1: and I like, you kind of hit on it a 753 00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,640 Speaker 1: couple weeks ago, and I'll take that bet. I don't 754 00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,480 Speaker 1: know if they're gonna give a Netflix film. Yeah, like 755 00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,480 Speaker 1: Quarron is getting, I think he's got. I think that's 756 00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,799 Speaker 1: a lock. But for Best Picture, a lot of times 757 00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:04,840 Speaker 1: it's a weight pusher. And if you look at you 758 00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,319 Speaker 1: know who's been kind of getting the weight push up 759 00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,400 Speaker 1: the odds, it's been Green Book, And so you know, 760 00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,240 Speaker 1: it hasn't happened often where you win a Best Picture 761 00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,600 Speaker 1: without a Best directing. I'm only four times. Argo was 762 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,279 Speaker 1: the last one, So it can happen in modern day. Um, 763 00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:19,319 Speaker 1: and I think, yeah, my money's there. I got it 764 00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,279 Speaker 1: at a plus three fifty a couple of days ago. 765 00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,360 Speaker 1: So if the Stars Born doesn't win Best Picture, in 766 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:28,719 Speaker 1: Bradley Cooper doesn't win Best Actor, I will riot. We gotta, 767 00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,080 Speaker 1: we gotta get inside action on this, right, I am, 768 00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 1: I am confident that neither is what I mean. What 769 00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,160 Speaker 1: happened at the h What happened at the Grammys? Your 770 00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,480 Speaker 1: pick with shallow? What happened there? Bradley Cooper still won 771 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 1: a Grammy. He has one for one with Grammy nominations. 772 00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,200 Speaker 1: If the man doesn't win an Oscar, there should be 773 00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:51,000 Speaker 1: an investigation, a congressional investigation into this so called nameless, 774 00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:55,719 Speaker 1: faceless academy strong words. We actually you talk about boats 775 00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,400 Speaker 1: and boarn material. You know what? I might run for 776 00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,560 Speaker 1: president on that platform. Wait? Am I old enough to 777 00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:03,080 Speaker 1: run for it? I don't think I am. Oh that's 778 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,239 Speaker 1: a mystery, my friend. Well, you seem not to know 779 00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,399 Speaker 1: enough a lot about movies to run so I can 780 00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,600 Speaker 1: make a good pay. All right, listen to this guy 781 00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,520 Speaker 1: getting smart? All right, Get the hell out of here, 782 00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,480 Speaker 1: all right, everybody, thank you for listening to the favorites. 783 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,040 Speaker 1: We will be back on Friday with myself and the 784 00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:25,000 Speaker 1: Millie Monster. You can find us on Apple Podcasts, on iTunes, 785 00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:29,080 Speaker 1: Radio dot com, Slash, the Action Network, and wherever else 786 00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Thank you, we love you.