1 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: Hi, and welcome to another edition of the Odd Lots podcast. 2 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal. So, Joe, this 3 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: is the third and final episode in our first ever 4 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: series about the intersection of crime, finance, and markets. Are 5 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: you Are you sad or excited for the finale? I'm 6 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: really excited about this one. Um. I mean, I I 7 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: really you know. I think a general theme of all 8 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: of our episodes has been the markets that where markets 9 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: appear that people don't talk about very much, But these 10 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: prime ones have been really in the sweet spot, and 11 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: I think today's is going to be a really good one. 12 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: All right. So one of the reasons that you and 13 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: I find these sort of crime markets so interesting is 14 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: that they often deal with really entrenched problems in economics. 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: They're honestly some of the most difficult markets in the world, 16 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: and I think the one that we are going to 17 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 1: talk about today is probably the most problematic in all 18 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: of existence. Like every single big economic problem you can 19 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: think of, stuff like moral hazard, adverse selection, information asymmetry, 20 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: all of that is present in this market. And if 21 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: you get it wrong, someone might die. So there's an 22 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: added bit of drama here, right, the consequences of this 23 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: market that we're going to talk about our enormous because, 24 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, if the market doesn't work right, it 25 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,399 Speaker 1: could result in death. And on top of all the 26 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: things that you mentioned adverse selection, moral hazard, information asymmetry, 27 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: there's also deep issues of emotion and morality, and you know, 28 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: economists sometimes like to abstract those things away and sort 29 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: of assume that they don't exist. But we're gonna be 30 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: talking about a market where it's essentially impossible to wipe 31 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: those things away, which has the benefit of sort of 32 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: informing our understanding of all markets by forcing us to 33 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: confront those things. Yeah, that's exactly right. And one of 34 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: the more amazing things about this particular market is that 35 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: there's actually a pretty decent solution to these problems. A 36 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: corporate entity has actually come up with a good way 37 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: of dealing with these problems, and it seems to be 38 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 1: working out reasonably well. Um, I guess we should, uh, 39 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 1: we should go ahead, and we should stop tiptoeing. Stop tiptoeing. 40 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: Why don't you say what it is and introduce our guest. 41 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: All right, we are going to be talking about the 42 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: kidnapping market. How insurers actually ensure kidnapping risk, how the 43 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: whole process of ransom actually unfolds. So here with us 44 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: today to discuss the kidnapping market is a woman called 45 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: Anna Shortland. She has written a fantastic paper on this 46 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: very subject called Governing Kidnap for Ransom Lloyd's as a 47 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: Private Regime. She is also a reader in Political economy 48 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: at King's College, London. So, without further ado, Anya, thank 49 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Well, thank you for 50 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: bringing me onto the program. So did Joe and I 51 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: get that introduction right? Is it fair to say that 52 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: kidnapping or the kidnapping market is probably one of the 53 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: most difficult markets around, while I certainly think of it 54 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: as the trickiest trade in the world. So each individual 55 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: trade is absolutely fraught with difficulty. I think this is 56 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: we have the title to this episode the Trickiest Trade 57 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: in the World. Thank you very much for that. That 58 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: solves that. Why is it? Why? Why? Why do you 59 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: consider this the trickiest trade in the world? Well, it 60 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: has It starts off with a run and pairing of 61 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: transaction partners. You don't get any choice about who you're 62 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: going to be trading with. Um Usually a kidnap is 63 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: a black box event. Somebody hijacks a car or a 64 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: boat and out jump some hostages. So you don't know 65 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 1: anything about the people that you're going to be transacting with, 66 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: and then you have to do a one off transaction 67 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: with them. The problem with that transaction and the incomplete 68 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: information is that nobody knows what kind of price should 69 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 1: be paid. So the people who have kidnapped a person 70 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: don't know how rich or poor that person is. They 71 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: might have a guess. However, for the hostage stakeholders, the 72 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: question is not necessarily how much can I raise, but 73 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: how much will the kidnap are settled for? So you 74 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 1: have that a bargaining problem with incomplete information. Unfortunately, information 75 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 1: can be extract it through the strategic use of violence. 76 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: You can't stop the kidnappers from chopping off digits, or 77 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 1: at least threatening to do so. Um you might use 78 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: extreme violence if you think you've got as hostage that 79 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: isn't worth very much, and therefore raise the price of 80 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: other hostages. Eventually, perhaps you agree a price, and then 81 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 1: you have to actually conduct the trade. So getting to 82 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: a price this difficult. Then you have sequential exchange. Somebody's 83 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,119 Speaker 1: got to pay and then the hostage has to come back, 84 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 1: and any sequential trade is problematic. This one is particularly 85 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: problematic because it's clandestine and it can be intercepted, So 86 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: you don't actually know whether you've managed to pay, because 87 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,359 Speaker 1: if you put some money somewhere in a bin according 88 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 1: to the kidnappers instructions, somebody else could empty that burn 89 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: before the kidnappers get to it, So you can't actually 90 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: prove that you've paid, and then what you have paid, 91 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: and they have acknowledge that you have paid, and then 92 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: they still have to decide whether they want to release 93 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: a future potential witness. And when you look at it 94 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: like that, you think, well, this can't possibly go well. 95 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: And then the amazing statistic is that if you're insured 96 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: for this kind of thing, then it will go right 97 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: of the time. That was a remarkable summary of the problem, 98 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: and I just found listening to that riveting. And I 99 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about this phenomenon where private companies provide 100 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 1: insurance for executives and other people who are prone to kidnapping, 101 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 1: But before we dive into the structure of the market, 102 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: something that I'm particularly fascinated by, and this came up 103 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: on a previous episode is how do you collect data 104 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: on this? I mean, this is sort of one of 105 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: the fascinating aspects of UH criminal markets. It's not exactly 106 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: listed in the newspaper or on the Bloomberg terminal what 107 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: the going rate is for a kidnapping victim. That be 108 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: a good index. Job, that would be a great index. 109 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: That would be a great chart of the day to 110 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: do some time if we had that. But how does 111 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: the process of data collection work in a market where 112 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: nobody has any incentive to tell you anything. Well, that's 113 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: exactly the difficulty off my research and the end, it's 114 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: about people trusting you to not to divulge the information 115 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: that you get. But that information is being collected and 116 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: there are people who share it within the community. Because 117 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: one of the really important things if you want to 118 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: govern that market and make that market stable is that 119 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: you don't pay over the odds. So you need to 120 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: have information about how much a kidnap again is actually expecting, Yes, 121 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: they will ask you for ten million dollars, but what 122 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: you need to know is whether they actually settled for 123 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: seven thousand dollars or twelve thousand dollars or a hundred 124 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: thousand dollars. You know the fin that the initial um 125 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: opening gambit gives you very little guidance as to what 126 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: they're actually settled for. So yes, people collect that information 127 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: and they share it within the community of experts to 128 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: make sure that the hostage stakeholders pitch they're opening gambit 129 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,079 Speaker 1: in expectations of settling in the expectator of settling at 130 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: a reasonable price for that region and for that particular 131 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:48,119 Speaker 1: kidnap group. A Ya, let's get back to that amazing 132 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,959 Speaker 1: success rate that you mentioned. Um, I think it was 133 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:58,239 Speaker 1: if you're ensured for kidnapping. How exactly is that success 134 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: achieved by private corporations given all the really really deep, 135 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: dramatic problems that you described previously. Well, to an economist, 136 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: any trade becomes governable if there is a shadow of 137 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: the future. Yeah. The the key problem that I had 138 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 1: straightaway was this, it's a one off transaction. If you 139 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: have a shadow of the future, If the kidnapper knows 140 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: that they're going to do this again and again and again, 141 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: and that whatever they do will feed into a community 142 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: that knows what they've done in the past, then you 143 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: have the potential for reputation building. So this will only 144 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: ever work if people can build reputations, you talk about 145 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: the corporation that's behind this and the specialists that behind it. Um. 146 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,239 Speaker 1: The problem with reputation building a criminal mark kits are twofold. 147 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 1: The victims don't talk because the last thing you want 148 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: to do is when you've just been through a kidnap 149 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 1: is go to the newspaper said, ah, just paid half 150 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: a million for my husband. Um, that's going to be 151 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: that's going to attract attention and the wrong kind of 152 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: criminal attention in the future. So people don't want to 153 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: talk about it. They might talk about it within a 154 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: small community, and that's how local kidnap markets work. But similarly, 155 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: a kidnapper would have to feel very self assured to 156 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: try and build a reputation. So you need to have 157 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: a very discreete process of exchanging information to replace the 158 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: rate my kidnapper app right that we usually use nowadays 159 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: to try and pull information about where the trade partner 160 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: is actually reliable. But if you have somebody who regularly 161 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 1: blows the victim's brains out, texts a ransom and that 162 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: doesn't even return the body, then you want to send 163 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: the police and are not the guy with the ransom. 164 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,839 Speaker 1: So if it would be kidnapper had the reputation of 165 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: always blowing the victims brains out no matter what. It's 166 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 1: pretty clear that they would not. People would not be 167 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: willing to negotiate with them like that. They wouldn't be 168 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 1: very successful long term in the trade. But do people 169 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 1: actually get to know individual kidnappers? Do they know the 170 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 1: identity of the counterparty or do they just get to 171 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: know the general patterns of kidnappers, Say, in a given area, 172 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 1: do the individuals have the reputation or does the community 173 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: of kidnappers get the reputation. I think it's a bit 174 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: of both. Occasionally you have kidnapping gangs, and sometimes you 175 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: have this advertising thing like the Mexican Flower Gang that 176 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: always set the chauffeur's body back with a flower um. 177 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: So yes, so it does. It does happen. But generally 178 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 1: you kind of know who's active in the area and 179 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: you know the expectations because once you get one ransom 180 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 1: paid um in an area, that will feed through the 181 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: criminal community and then other people think, oh, I can 182 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: do that, so their trade then will be conditioned on 183 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: the previous ransom. Just the community enforced norm. So you 184 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: talk about the idea of a kidnapping community. If there 185 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: is a bad actor, do other kidnappers discourage that. I 186 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: think quite possibly you'd have a local mafia that would say, well, 187 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 1: we don't want this kind of kidnapping here. Yes, So 188 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: I do think there's discipline there is. There's a lot 189 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: of research on on on on who governs the criminal 190 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 1: side of the market, and the answer is usually that 191 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: there is a dawn, there is a mafia, and the 192 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: mafia decides whether or not kidnapping happens, and if it 193 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: does happen, what kind of things are acceptable. Because if 194 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: you're maximizing return over over a long period, then again 195 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: you don't want that kind of kidnapper um on your turf, 196 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: So they might well get rid of the more random elements. 197 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: I'm sure it's only a matter of time until some 198 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: really enterprising criminal comes up with a central clearinghouse for 199 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: kidnappers to eliminate all counterparty risk um. But on your 200 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: on a more serious note, there is a sort of 201 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: thematic tension that emerges from your work, which is that 202 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: these kidnapping insurers, if they're too successful, then they basically 203 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: risk encouraging a lot more kidnapping things and having to 204 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: pay out a lot more money, So how did they 205 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: actually navigate that tension? Yes, So, when kidnapped for ransom 206 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 1: insurance was first developed as a product, the families negotiated, 207 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: the families raised the ransoms, the families um delivered the ransoms, 208 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: and then the insurers reimbursed reinbursted them afterwards. The problem 209 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: was that was that the families were particularly careful about 210 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: how much how much ransom they paid. They didn't resist 211 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: the kidnappers demands as much as would have been desirable, 212 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: and ransom started to explode in the nineties seventies and 213 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: Latin America ransoms went from from half a million to 214 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: a million, to two million, to six million, to ten million, 215 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: to thirty million to sixty million, and it would have 216 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: become uninsurable if insurers hadn't done something about taking control 217 00:14:55,520 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: of the ransom negotiations. So what they did was to 218 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: bring in specialists to advise the families to make sure 219 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: that they started to consider how much the kidnapper would 220 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: settle for rather than the maximum amount of money that 221 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: they might like to afford to bring a treasured uncle back. 222 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: Now here's a question, who's interested to the specialists? Who 223 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: do they work for? They work for the insurance company. Right, 224 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: they work for the insurance company they advised the family, 225 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: and their job is to bring the hostage back safely 226 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: for the minimum that the kidnappers will settle for. So 227 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: basically they worked for both sides because the family is 228 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: interested in the safe return, and they work for the 229 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: insurers because the insurers are interested in the stable market. 230 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: They don't want premium ransoms to be paid. Because in theory, 231 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: this could be yet another information asymmetry where there again 232 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: two parties the stakeholders, the family of the kidnapping victim 233 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: in the insurance company and the I And you know, 234 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: the specialist essentially serves two masters, and there could be 235 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: potentially a conflict of interest there. There's certainly, in many 236 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: cases perceived to be one. I doubt that it is 237 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: very great because the chances are that if somebody asks 238 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: you if they're a million, and you say, yeah, that's fine, 239 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: the kidnappers well go back and say, well, if if 240 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 1: a million is fine, you're just happy to give it 241 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: to me like that, then I would like five million. 242 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: So you don't actually gain very much by giving in fast. 243 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: So as far as the kidnapper is concerned, they're trying 244 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: to extract the maximum that you've got. And if they 245 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: if they name a figure beyond their dreams of avarice 246 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: and you say yeah, that's fine, that's not going to 247 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: work because there is nothing contracture that obliges the kidnappers 248 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: to stick with a figure that they originally had in mind. Um, 249 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: it is all anarchic bargaining. Um. Sometimes the kidnappers will 250 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: give somebody back if you if the family exceeds very quickly, 251 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: and then two weeks later another family member will be gone. 252 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: So basically, this is not really something where you can 253 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: take shortcuts. And the fact that you've got a highly 254 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,880 Speaker 1: experienced negotiator at your side, you can explain the process 255 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: to you, who can reassure you and who you know 256 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: has already brought dozens of people back and it will 257 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: take five days and ten tho dollars rather than three 258 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: wasn't a million? If you know, if you have that 259 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: background that they know what they're doing, then you probably 260 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: ought to listen. So we've been talking about these insurance 261 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:19,919 Speaker 1: companies able to instill some discipline in the bargaining ransoming 262 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 1: process and create this very very healthy success rate. But 263 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: there's a part of this that we haven't actually talked 264 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 1: about yet, which is that in all of the kidnappings 265 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:36,360 Speaker 1: we've been discussing, we're talking about criminal gangs, mafia groups 266 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: doing kidnappings for profit. These insurance companies like Lloyd's are 267 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: actually prohibited from negotiating or ensuring if someone gets kidnapped 268 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: from a terrorist group. Is that right? That is right? Yes, 269 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 1: it's illegal to facilitate or make or reimburse payments where 270 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 1: you have any reasonable of course to suspect and might 271 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: go to a terrorist group. So yes, the insurers are 272 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: out as soon as somebody labels a group terrorists. So 273 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: who makes that decision and why is that rule in place? 274 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: This is about governments wanting to be tough on terrorist funding, 275 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: and governments decide which groups they're considered to be terrorists, 276 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: and there is some leeway on this. So for example, 277 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: with the Somali pirates, there was a lot of suspicion 278 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: that Al Shabab might be getting some of the pirate 279 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: proceeds um and yet the criminal label was applied because basically, 280 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: once you start labeling something as a terrorist problem, then 281 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: that beautiful, ingenious market structure that governs criminal kidnaps is 282 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: sidelined and things start to go badly wrong. In your 283 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: review is the is this an error of policy? Now? 284 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: All sorts of problems. When you put a government on 285 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: the end of a phone line, the insurer will put 286 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: the family or whatever stakeholder groups is most credibly cash 287 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 1: constrained on the end of the phone. So if I 288 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: was kidnapped, they'll put my husband on the phone. And 289 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: however much my husband loves me, there's no way he 290 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: could raise half a million. If you put Angela Merkel 291 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: on the phone, there is no way that she can 292 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: credibly signal to the to the kidnapper that the German 293 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 1: state does not have five million to bring me back. 294 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: That is a big difference. So what is the budget constraint? 295 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: What budget constraint can you actually demonstrate to the kidnapper? Um. Secondly, 296 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: why my husband would very much like me back, there 297 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: is not pressure to do so immediately, whereas governments are 298 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:09,120 Speaker 1: generally quite keen to conclude and get this thing off 299 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: their plate, especially if you have kidnappers are who create 300 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 1: media pressure for the return of our boys or our 301 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 1: girls or whatever it is. And thirdly, insurers have devised 302 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 1: a system to make sure that the spillovers are from 303 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 1: premium ransoms are internalized within the community of insurers, whereas 304 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 1: the German government doesn't really care and can't be punished 305 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 1: for creating a premium ransom precedent that then becomes problematic 306 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: for the French government, or the Italian government or the 307 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: Spanish governments five months down the line. So all the 308 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: things that contain ransoms within the private sphere are missing 309 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: in the government sphere. So when it is to terrorists kidnappings, 310 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: there is one trend that has been happening that I 311 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: really wanted to ask you about, and that's um, you know, 312 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 1: we've seen people unable to get their governments to pay 313 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,679 Speaker 1: for their loved ones for the reasons that you just 314 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,120 Speaker 1: laid out, and then they don't have insurance for their 315 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: loved ones because the insurers aren't allowed to pay out 316 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 1: ransoms for terrorists kidnappings. But some of these families have 317 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 1: been going online and doing crowdfunding, right, basically asking people 318 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: for money to pay for ransoms. How does that affect 319 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: the insurance market because I imagine that that could create 320 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 1: some distortions and incentives. Certainly it would knock that discipline 321 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: that we've been talking about I haven't seen much about 322 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,640 Speaker 1: the crowdfunding, but what I have seen, of course, it's 323 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: the ransoms that certain European countries have quite regularly paid 324 00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: to terrorists, and that really creates a problem for insurers 325 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: because you talked about clearing houses earlier on are there 326 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: clearing houses? Well, there's certainly used a secondary market for hostages. 327 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: So if you have a criminal market that settles at 328 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: thirty or fifty thou dollars and the terrorist market that's 329 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: settled somewhere between five and twelve million, then it becomes 330 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: very likely that the criminal kidnappers passed the hostages on 331 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: to the terrorist organizations. We have to wrap up soon, 332 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 1: but I want to ask you. You know, kidnapping is 333 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 1: a pretty common theme in movies there I think was 334 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: there there was a movie called Ransom. I think with 335 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: Harrison Ford. What is the biggest gap between how most 336 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: people view the negotiating process with hostage takers or with 337 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 1: kidnappers and how it exists in real life? What's the 338 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 1: what's the ultimate way that this process by which a 339 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: number is agreed upon and the delivery of the money happened. 340 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: How does how do people get it wrong? Because most 341 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: of their experiences throughout their fiction. I think the big 342 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: difference is that once that negotiator arrives to advise the family, 343 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: he will have a very good idea of how long 344 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: it will take and how much it will settle for. 345 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: So yes, it will be emotionally highly fraught, but in 346 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: the background, you know that this is very likely to 347 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 1: be done in less than a week an at a 348 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: price that's not actually going to break the back and 349 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: of people come home. Yes, hostages die, but most of 350 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: them die in escape attempts, or because they had pre 351 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:59,880 Speaker 1: existing medical conditions, or because somebody tries to liberate them. Though, 352 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 1: so the three real big dangers for hostages. That's a 353 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,920 Speaker 1: that's good to know. Well, I don't know. That's that's 354 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: just sort of good advice in case that you know, 355 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 1: I ever find we ever find ourselves in that position. 356 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: But that's exactly the advice that you would be getting 357 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: if you were trained for operations and complex and hostile territories, 358 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: and that's what everyone advises you. Hang in there, don't 359 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: be an alpha male. We'll get you out. Eddie Lampert, 360 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,640 Speaker 1: the hedge fund manager, did negotiate his own or did 361 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: sneak out? Have you studied his case. No, I haven't. 362 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 1: The The hedge fund manager who currently controlled Steers was 363 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: kidnapped in two thousand three and managed to trick his 364 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: kidnappers into thinking the police were hot on their tail 365 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 1: through negotiation of he did himself and then was able 366 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 1: to sneak out. I have one tiny, last little question. 367 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, very minor. Are there any escrow services for 368 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: money drops? Well, yes there is. Trying to make that 369 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: payment process smooth is another big business, and trying to 370 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 1: find ways of actually proving that you have paid. So 371 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 1: I think one of the really nights illustrations of that 372 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: where the ransom drops for Somali pirates where they're basically 373 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: flying over with aircraft. The pirates lined up the entire 374 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 1: crew to show that everyone was still alive, and then 375 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 1: on the second fly path the money was dropped. Photos 376 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 1: were taken, so it was very clear that the pirates 377 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: had been paid. And yeah, and all of these releases 378 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: went absolutely smoothly and near Shortland. That was a fascinating conversation. 379 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you my pleasure. So, Joe, 380 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,440 Speaker 1: now we know what to do for kidnapped, right, don't 381 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 1: be an alpha male that's the number one piece of 382 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 1: advice I'm gonna have to really resist by a tendency 383 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 1: to always try to be the alpha male in every situation. 384 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 1: But I'm going to remember that now. I love that conversation, 385 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: and I could have probably asked a hundred more questions. 386 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: That's why I asked that question at the end about 387 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: UM about whether their es grow services to prove payment. 388 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 1: But I think the fact that there are a million 389 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 1: more questions we could have asked really speaks to exactly 390 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: what you said at the very beginning, that this is 391 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 1: probably the most complicated transaction you can imagine, and every 392 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: little bit from proving the payment to figuring out who 393 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 1: the hostage expert negotiator really works for, every single aspect 394 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,200 Speaker 1: just seems so tricky and hard to manage. Yeah. Um, 395 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,880 Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna develop maybe a bit of a 396 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,679 Speaker 1: specialty in kidnapping academic research, because I really find this 397 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 1: fascinating and I'm surprised that more economists don't look at 398 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: this as a sort of microcosm of all the big 399 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,159 Speaker 1: issues that we so often find and behavioral finance and 400 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: beyond UM. But it's definitely one that I think can 401 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: be further explored. I think that last point to about 402 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: how in movies, kidnapping always seems like, you know, these 403 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: negotiation doesn't seem to have any process. It seems completely chaotic. 404 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,960 Speaker 1: It usually always falls apart at the end, someone backtracks 405 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: at the last second, and then and the idea that 406 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,919 Speaker 1: in real life that it's a very emotionally fraught process, 407 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 1: but that it also is predictable usually ends in about 408 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 1: a week. That from the beginning the expert has a 409 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,640 Speaker 1: good sense of how much it will cost, it probably 410 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 1: won't destroy the family's finances. Is so fascinating that this 411 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: incredibly complicated transaction through markets and through expertise can actually 412 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 1: be made kind of predictable from the very start. Should 413 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 1: someone write the movie about the insurance specialists parachuting in 414 00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: having really disciplined negotiations, talking about s growth services making 415 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: estimates of the ransom I'm imagining I'm imagining Steve Carrell 416 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 1: and him sort of coming in with a slightly ill 417 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 1: fitting suit and him, uh, you know something something along that, 418 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 1: and him trying to be like this very nerdy insurance 419 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: approach and everyone else freaking out, and him calling everyone's nervous. 420 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: I think it has to be a comedy. I would 421 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: totally watch that me too. All Right, Um, that is 422 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 1: it for this episode of Odd Lots and for our 423 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 1: series on markets and Crime. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can 424 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, and I'm Joe Wisenthal. 425 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at the star Wart