Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News, Single, Best Idea.
Speaker 2: And today working all weekend and the team led by Joseppe.
Speaker 2: The team is just incredible. You know, everybody work Isabelle
Speaker 2: Lee was in with our final interviewer from our cross
Speaker 2: Asset team and she said they worked. They literally worked
Speaker 2: the entire weekend. There's no other way to put it.
Speaker 2: And we thank all of you for listening. We're having
Speaker 2: record audiences humbled by that, particularly out on YouTube where
Speaker 2: you can subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. We made a decision
Speaker 2: in the vicinity of a happy Hour on Saturday that
Speaker 2: we would not do an academic Monday. We worship our
Speaker 2: academic guests. What a week last week with David Blancheflower
Speaker 2: Dugger when from Dartmouth, I believe. Do we have schedule
Speaker 2: this week Professor Krugman. We have the Laureate Krugman with
Speaker 2: us at some point this week and on we'll go.
Speaker 2: But today we said stay on the markets and you
Speaker 2: start strong with Damian Sasso or.
Speaker 3: It's just about the fixings. You know, the PBOC just
Speaker 3: said China will set its currency manages. It's currency tom as.
Speaker 3: You know, there's a two percent band around the China
Speaker 3: U one that it can move each and every day
Speaker 3: before the government basically closes it down. Search breakers go up,
Speaker 3: and so you know what they do is they set
Speaker 3: that fixing every day. China you want is trading at
Speaker 3: seven thirty one, seven thirty two. Now, well they just
Speaker 3: crossed that red line on seven twenty. If they're going
Speaker 3: to start allowing the fixings to gradually move higher, right,
Speaker 3: that tells me everything I need to know about you know,
Speaker 3: currency rep.
Speaker 2: I can't say enough how important it was. I want
Speaker 2: this up. I said, that's got to be our first quote.
Speaker 2: I was stopped all weekend with you know, the basic
Speaker 2: what's going to happen to that? And A I don't
Speaker 2: have a market call because I know they're worthless. We're
Speaker 2: all it's part of the you know, the framework of
Speaker 2: Wall Street in that. But it's not my job to
Speaker 2: have a market call. What I will say is the
Speaker 2: common feature of every crisis. And when I started studying this, folks,
Speaker 2: to put things in perspective, one of the four great
Speaker 2: currencies of the world was the Lebanese pound. Good morning
Speaker 2: nasum to leeb the Lebanese pound and the answers things
Speaker 2: change and the way they change is you look at
Speaker 2: the lipmus paper of the system, which is the currency market,
Speaker 2: and mister Sassur there of Bloomberg Intelligence doing all our
Speaker 2: em work, went right to the heart of it, which
Speaker 2: is watch the ren minbi, the Chinese yuan, and to
Speaker 2: go from seven up to seven point three zero a
Speaker 2: weaker yuan and depreciate and to go out further is
Speaker 2: not unimaginable. Given this trauma. Could the yuan get back
Speaker 2: to where it was? And I believe two thousand and
Speaker 2: fifteen or two thousand and five, I honestly can't remember
Speaker 2: back when it was unpegged a decade or or so ago.
Speaker 2: Damien Sasar, he'll be with us. You're more through the week.
Speaker 2: Many people helping us out today with a cross section
Speaker 2: of opinions. I tried to stay away from the Fed
Speaker 2: parlor game. Guess what, it doesn't matter right now. I
Speaker 2: just don't think it's germane to the debate. Here is
Speaker 2: from RBC Capital Markets on the equity market collapse, Laurie Calvcina.
Speaker 4: The reality is is that you know when I highlight
Speaker 4: this small cap chart and that we're at thirteen times,
Speaker 4: or at least we were as a Thursday. People say, well,
Speaker 4: we have to adjust the earnings, and I say, I know,
Speaker 4: we have to adjust the earnings. That's the separate thing though,
Speaker 4: if you look at you know, sort of historically my
Speaker 4: forward pe data eleven to thirteen times is where small
Speaker 4: caps tend to bottom out even when the E is
Speaker 4: too high. And people just can't mentally wrap their heads
Speaker 4: around that. But it is something important you have to
Speaker 4: keep in mind because it's one of those things again
Speaker 4: that you have to see. It's not going to peg
Speaker 4: a bottom on its own, but it's still a signal
Speaker 4: even though there's some problems with the need. Now. I
Speaker 4: do think with earnings, we have to get the numbers
Speaker 4: down before anybody is going to have faith to come
Speaker 4: in and buy here. Forty percent of the revisions and
Speaker 4: the wrote the Russell and S ANDP are still to
Speaker 4: the upside. Nobody's cutting numbers because they don't you know,
Speaker 4: I don't know a lot of different reasons, but nobody's
Speaker 4: been cutting the number.
Speaker 2: That's a really important insight. Lori kelvissena IBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 2: I thought Michael Purvis was great on this and a
Speaker 2: number of others. Keith learning from truists was wonderful. This
Speaker 2: is all happening so fast. Let me explain this now.
Speaker 2: I think it's incredibly important. The financial media talks percent change.
Speaker 2: Of the indices. The SPX is the most mathematically integral indicy.
Speaker 2: We use the Dow because America is riveted to it
Speaker 2: from our past. It's not as good an index. I
Speaker 2: get it, and we look at percent change. A correction
Speaker 2: is in the vicinity of ten percent down. A bear
Speaker 2: market is eighteen percent down, and the kind of wash
Speaker 2: out you get in an sequential crisis is down thirty
Speaker 2: five percent or something like that. The pros don't do that.
Speaker 2: They do a thing called standard deviations. I'm not going
Speaker 2: to go into it on a podcast, but the answer
Speaker 2: is we are at a point of stress in standard
Speaker 2: deviations down three point six, three point eight percent. I
Speaker 2: know those are just numbers, and where we get stressful
Speaker 2: is down four standard deviations. We're not there yet. I'll
Speaker 2: tell you when we get there. On your commute across
Speaker 2: the nation. Thank you so much for listening, particularly the
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