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Speaker 1: Will the Federal Reserve keep raising rates or will they

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Speaker 1: finally pivot? Now it's no surprise at the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: announced they would start raising rates and start quantitative tightening

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Speaker 1: last year. Since then, the markets have been selling off.

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Speaker 1: Of course, the Photo Reserve is really serious about fighting inflation,

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Speaker 1: or so they say, get inflation down from that nine

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Speaker 1: point one percent and making serious progress as they say

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Speaker 1: on that number. Of course, their only tool is the

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Speaker 1: money printer. They can adjust rates, that's really what they

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Speaker 1: can do. So will they continue to raise rates or

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Speaker 1: will they pivot? That's what everybody wants to know, and

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Speaker 1: that is the topic of the conversation I am having

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Speaker 1: today with James Lavish. We're gonna talk about inflation. Has

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Speaker 1: the inflation CPI has that number peaked or will it

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Speaker 1: go down? What's gonna happen with that? We're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about it as the world develops over the next several

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Speaker 1: years and decades. What's gonna happen. We'll talk about the

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Speaker 1: European bond crisis that's happening and the potential for the

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Speaker 1: European Union to break apart. I've been talking about. We'll

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Speaker 1: talk about the Japanese bond environment and what could happen

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Speaker 1: with Japan and Europe and those potential black swan events.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about of course, the central Bank digital currencies.

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Speaker 1: Is this the government's answer to fighting this problem that

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Speaker 1: they're in. Will they push the CBDC out and what

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Speaker 1: will that mean? We'll talk about bitcoin of course, how

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Speaker 1: that fits into that and so much more. Is a

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Speaker 1: great conversation with James Lavitts one that I love. We

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Speaker 1: did in studio, So i's golead to just jump right

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Speaker 1: into the conversation. So James, welcome, Welcome to the studio.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for having man, it's good to be here. Man.

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Speaker 1: I always hate this part because it goes from just

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Speaker 1: having good casual conversation and then then Ellison, it's which

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Speaker 1: is into this like interview mode. Um. I try to like, O, No,

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Speaker 1: let's save that. Let's say that, say that as we're

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Speaker 1: talking on interview is just a conversation, and then you

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Speaker 1: can't get back into it. Um. Before we jumped into

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Speaker 1: the actual interview piece, we were talking about this latest

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Speaker 1: piece by Zultan Posar and you haven't read it, but

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Speaker 1: basically he's basically saying that the world benefited from globalism

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Speaker 1: through opening up trade, and so we've taken fifty jobs

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Speaker 1: in the United States and now they're eight thousand dollar

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Speaker 1: jobs overseas, and a hundred dollar apart now is an

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Speaker 1: eight dollar part, etcetera. And so we've managed to have

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Speaker 1: this massive deflationary period um. But that's all changing. Of course.

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Speaker 1: I've been talking a lot about my my three cycles

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Speaker 1: thesis is the world is moving from centralization to decentralizations

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Speaker 1: are the same thing. So I agree with his thesis

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Speaker 1: that now is the world decentralizes, we have the reverse

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Speaker 1: of that, which is now re on shoring everything. And

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Speaker 1: as we re on shore everything, then things get way

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Speaker 1: more expensive. And so most likely the trend that we've

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Speaker 1: had of globalization and deflation now we'll reverse, and now

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Speaker 1: we'll have decentralization and more inflation. It makes sense too.

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Speaker 1: It's a good driver to pay down debt. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're are the world is so in you know, it

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Speaker 1: lives on credit, right, so there's so much credit that

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Speaker 1: you have to deflate it away, so that actually works

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Speaker 1: to have inflation. It makes sense. Yeah, So let's let's

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Speaker 1: take a second and define inflation for a second, because

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Speaker 1: that's that's a problem. And I think we're already thinking

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Speaker 1: of different things. Okay, So um, I I like the

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Speaker 1: Austrian definition of inflation, which is increasing the money supply.

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Speaker 1: And when you increase the money supply, then all types

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Speaker 1: of things go wrong, go haywire, because we're in a

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Speaker 1: complex system and so prices of things move. Um. Today,

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Speaker 1: that seems that the prevailing definition of inflation is the

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Speaker 1: price of my coffee when CPI consumer price inflation, and

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Speaker 1: and an economist could be factually correct, but I think

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Speaker 1: it's inaccurate. But they'll tell you that asset que is

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Speaker 1: an inflationary because um, it didn't cause consumer price to

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Speaker 1: go up. Yeah. Sure, stocks and real estate that ultimized,

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Speaker 1: but those are those are assets, those aren't consumer prices.

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Speaker 1: So then they'll start to split these hairs. Um. But

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Speaker 1: I think again in the context of what we hear

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Speaker 1: today's CPI consumer price inflation. So um, the reason why

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Speaker 1: I don't like that definition is because of what you

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Speaker 1: were just getting into, which is they like inflation to

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Speaker 1: inflate away debt. But there's trillions of prices and there's

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Speaker 1: trillions of reasons why those prices can get higher. Now,

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Speaker 1: typically they break them down into two categories. So cost

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Speaker 1: push or demand pull and so UM. The demand poll,

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Speaker 1: I would think is from too much money printing creates

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Speaker 1: too much demand, and so now they're buying We're buying

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Speaker 1: too much goods and services. They don't really classify it

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Speaker 1: that way. They classify demand pull as UM. I think

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Speaker 1: people saying, oh, the frigeration will be too expensive in

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Speaker 1: the future, I should buy it now, like anticipation of inflation.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that's how you understand it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, inflation caused by the expansion of money supply.

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Speaker 1: I mean it can be directly tied to when there

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Speaker 1: are programs that actually get that money into people's pocket.

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Speaker 1: It's right. So if you listen to lenld and talk

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Speaker 1: about it, she's you know, she clarifies that. Look, if

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Speaker 1: we didn't have all of the um the programs over

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Speaker 1: the last few years, UM, after the after the lockdowns

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Speaker 1: to get money into people's pockets, then we wouldn't see

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Speaker 1: the inflation we're seeing, especially because you know, we had

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Speaker 1: supply chain issues and the money got into people's directly,

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Speaker 1: into people's savings accounts. The problem is you have the

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Speaker 1: can't down effect where you can increase money supply, but

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Speaker 1: it does not trickle down. So some asset prices may rise.

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Speaker 1: You may get the Allians and Berkshire Hathaways and you

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Speaker 1: know black rocks buying up homes and raising rents, which

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Speaker 1: is a very large part of CPI. But um, you know,

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Speaker 1: getting money into people's pockets is really the driver of

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Speaker 1: money supply spanision creating inflation. So um, so you can

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Speaker 1: look back in periods where the expansion of money so

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Speaker 1: I didn't directly cause inflation right away, right So, but

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Speaker 1: that's the keyword, directly, directly or indirectly. So I had

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Speaker 1: Jeff Snyder on recently, UM, super super super smart guy

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Speaker 1: understanding the euro dollar market and the workings at the

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Speaker 1: central banks, etcetera. And we got into that a little

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Speaker 1: bit directly or indirectly. The central banks don't do anything. Well,

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Speaker 1: they didn't do anything directly, but they said they were

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Speaker 1: gonna do something which indirectly mood markets. Right. So there's

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Speaker 1: like that. But so that that's the demand side of

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Speaker 1: the equation. UM. And so to that point, we saw

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Speaker 1: that for example, UM, supply chains were breaking down. We

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Speaker 1: couldn't get stuff in the country fast enough. But we

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Speaker 1: saw that we were ordering more goods than we were before,

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Speaker 1: so supply chains were breaking down because we were ordering

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Speaker 1: more than we were before. But he said that what

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Speaker 1: we saw was an increase on the good side, but

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Speaker 1: the services side went down, so net we weren't actually

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Speaker 1: buying anymore. It was just we were buying more goods

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Speaker 1: and less services. We couldn't go out, we couldn't go

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Speaker 1: get massages for example. People people were worried about not

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Speaker 1: being able to get the goods because you remember, right

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Speaker 1: in the beginning of the pandemic, you you couldn't get

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Speaker 1: cans of food, right, I mean, you know, so like people.

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Speaker 1: I think where people were they were front loading things

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Speaker 1: that they thought they may need. So there's that. So

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Speaker 1: that's the demand side. But then this is the part

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Speaker 1: where posers article and where I see is then there's

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Speaker 1: the there's the cost push. So and again there's trillions

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Speaker 1: of reasons why that can go up. But basically cost

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Speaker 1: push means that when my cost goes up to provide

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Speaker 1: that good or service to you, then I have to

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Speaker 1: raise my prices. Has nothing to do with the demand side.

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Speaker 1: So for example, um gas prices went super high in

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles. People commute an hour to work each way,

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Speaker 1: and they can no longer afford to go there. Plus

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Speaker 1: daycare went up so high, so they quit. Now that

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Speaker 1: employer has to pay more money to replace that person,

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Speaker 1: which now pushes the prices up right. Um, and so

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Speaker 1: there's that cost push. And so I think that's the part.

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Speaker 1: So now if I can pay somebody overseas eight thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars a year, but now I have to onshore that

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Speaker 1: job for fifty a year, I'm gonna have to charge

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Speaker 1: more for my goods and services. So that's a cost push.

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Speaker 1: And so the FED maybe has some control. They do,

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Speaker 1: he says. Jeff Snyder says they don't. I say, obviously,

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Speaker 1: we can see it's happening this the reverse wealth effect.

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Speaker 1: Stocks go down, real estate goes down. People want to

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Speaker 1: spend less money, so you can they can cause something

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Speaker 1: on this demand side. But what I think is possible

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Speaker 1: is that while they're crushing demand, which they've stated that

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Speaker 1: as their goal. They said the demand destruction, demandstruction, that

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Speaker 1: that's all they have, right, So that while they can demand,

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Speaker 1: they can destroy the demand, they could simultaneously destroy demand,

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Speaker 1: which would bring the demand side of the inflation down

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Speaker 1: but push prices up at the same time. Right, Yeah, that, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's absolutely possible. Um, But you hit on the most

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Speaker 1: important point, which is the FED is trying to do

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Speaker 1: something with the tools they have, and they only have

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Speaker 1: so many tools, right, but how many tools do they have? Right?

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Speaker 1: They can raise rates or lower rates they have they

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Speaker 1: have interest rates, and then they can use quantitative easing

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Speaker 1: or tightening, right, which we haven't even seen them really do.

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Speaker 1: So the question is as they raise rates and asset

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Speaker 1: prices and stocks and react, the bonds react and real

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Speaker 1: estate prices come down. Um, you know, raising rates, real

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Speaker 1: estate prices have to come down. It's just the it's

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Speaker 1: just the nature of of the mortgage, right. I disagree. Well, okay,

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Speaker 1: let me let me back up. I disagree with that.

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Speaker 1: I know you aren't a real estate expert, but let

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Speaker 1: me let me back up. Um, certain markets have gotten

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Speaker 1: ahead of themselves and should come down. That's fine. You

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Speaker 1: know that there's scarcity. We laughed about this post that

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Speaker 1: I made a few weeks ago about the Okay, um,

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Speaker 1: maybe engagement farming on that, but you know, so the

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Speaker 1: point is though, that if you're looking at a house

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Speaker 1: that was four dollars last year, now it's six thousand, dollars.

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Speaker 1: You were paying three in change on your interest rate.

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Speaker 1: Now you're paying almost six percent or maybe even higher.

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Speaker 1: And depends on the market. But um, and whether it's

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Speaker 1: a jumbo, but that the house, the house has to

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Speaker 1: decrease in value by fift just the math on it

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Speaker 1: in order to have the same monthly payment. Right. So unless,

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Speaker 1: like you're saying, unless you have enough enough money supply

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Speaker 1: for everyone to to swallow that and continue to pay

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Speaker 1: those higher prices, then the prices have to come down

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Speaker 1: or so or people just buy less house, or people

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Speaker 1: buy less house, people buy less house. So I wanted

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Speaker 1: a square foot house and I have to buy an

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Speaker 1: eight d square foot house. So what happens? Well, you

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Speaker 1: know those houses are they're still selling, But are is

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Speaker 1: black Rock? Are aliens? Are they? Are they going to

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Speaker 1: buy those houses at those prices? Were they going to

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Speaker 1: let them come in? If there's not enough demand for them,

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Speaker 1: they'll let them come in. That's just that's just the

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Speaker 1: demand side, right, So and they have enough money to

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Speaker 1: be a patient and wait. Correct? So, um, I do see,

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Speaker 1: I do see housing prices coming down the reality, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: the question is how much? Right? Yeah? I posted on

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Speaker 1: on Twitter I said, you know, what, what is it?

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Speaker 1: What is it when when real estate has gone up

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Speaker 1: a hundred percent? M what's a correction? And what's a crash? Well?

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't. Nobody knows the answer. Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think we're going to see a

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Speaker 1: crash like we did back in the housing crisis. I mean,

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Speaker 1: what what would you say is the difference between a

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Speaker 1: correction and a crash? When when when prices bought up

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Speaker 1: by a hundred percent, a correction would seem healthy. So

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Speaker 1: where's a correction? And then where's a crash? I mean

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Speaker 1: a correct? I would say a correction would be in

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Speaker 1: somewhere between the range of crash would be thirty and above.

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Speaker 1: That's that's just personally how I I may think about.

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Speaker 1: So typically a bear market would be draw it out.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, is a correction more than that? Definitely more

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Speaker 1: than that as a crash? Okay, where I don't. But

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Speaker 1: if you look at the credit um and and and

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Speaker 1: and just to clarify that is that from let's say

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Speaker 1: the houses were selling for a hundred thousand, now I

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Speaker 1: have to sell for seventy THO. You're talking about that

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Speaker 1: like the actual price the price at the home selling

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Speaker 1: for because what we see today is that the price

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Speaker 1: appreciation is rapidly decelerating but not actually coming down. But

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Speaker 1: people are grasping onto the wrong right right right, So okay,

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Speaker 1: keep going. Um, I don't know where it's going. But

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Speaker 1: the point is that, um, you know, the housing prices.

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Speaker 1: It depends on where you are, obviously, and but the

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Speaker 1: credit that has been extended to the buyers. You don't

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Speaker 1: have the subprime lending that you used to have. You

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Speaker 1: don't have those same instruments that are that we're variable

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Speaker 1: rates that could that could ump up and price people

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Speaker 1: out of being able to make their monthly payments. And

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Speaker 1: so I just don't see us having a crash, not

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Speaker 1: like the housing crisis, even even as the FED raises rates,

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Speaker 1: even if we go into really go deep into a recession, here,

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Speaker 1: I don't see housing prices crashing. Um. There's still trillions

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Speaker 1: of dollars that are are repod reverse repod every single day,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of money in the system, so

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Speaker 1: it has to go somewhere. I tend to agree with

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Speaker 1: you on this, but here's another conversation to jump into

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Speaker 1: where we started before. I tend to agree with you

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Speaker 1: on that. But there's a lot of potential black swans

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Speaker 1: out there. I mean, that's where they come on black swans, right,

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Speaker 1: But but I mean there's a lot like well, I

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Speaker 1: guess they're not black. These are like great because we

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Speaker 1: kind of seeking and uh, I mean, we have three

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Speaker 1: nuclear wars potentially. We got you know, Russia, Ukraine, US,

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Speaker 1: we have Iran in Israel, we have and I mean

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Speaker 1: which we're pushing those butts. We're pushing those buttons, Japan, Germany,

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Speaker 1: everyone's on board. So it's like there's those are there's

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Speaker 1: three right there? Conspiracy theorists, you'd say, well, the United

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Speaker 1: States is trying to push this into war. I mean

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Speaker 1: because that that that helps them pivot, so that could

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Speaker 1: potentially happen. We have you know, potentially Japan and the

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Speaker 1: EU um bond markets, imploading. Is the Fed going to

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Speaker 1: bring all that on their balance sheet? You know? Um?

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Speaker 1: Do the Fed want to save things? We'll talk about

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Speaker 1: all those things. But so when you look at all

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Speaker 1: those there's all all kinds of reasons where things could

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Speaker 1: just go completely haywire. And um, I think, um where

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Speaker 1: we were talking about before, I have this uh as

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Speaker 1: we always have to be aware of our own biases, right,

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Speaker 1: because those are blind spots. I'm the eternal optimists. That's

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Speaker 1: an optimism bias for me, and I think most people,

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Speaker 1: even if they're not optimists. Um, for the last fifty

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Speaker 1: years or maybe a hundred years, eighty years, we've always

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Speaker 1: thought that things will get better. Like we've had. We

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Speaker 1: had plenty of dips, plenty of crashes, but things will

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Speaker 1: get better. Um. The powers that be want things to improve.

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Speaker 1: The Fed's going to try to restimulate markets at some point, right,

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Speaker 1: and especially over the last dozen years, we've been really

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Speaker 1: been trained to buy the dip by the dip, by

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Speaker 1: the dip. And so people keep asking when will the

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Speaker 1: FED pivot? When will they say they say things, But

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Speaker 1: that assumes a bias that they want to save things

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Speaker 1: and they want to make things better, right, Yeah, And

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Speaker 1: you know, Um, the thing is with the FED is

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Speaker 1: they have a very tight mandate, right and however, which

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Speaker 1: we know, which is we want full employment and you

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Speaker 1: want low inflation. All right, Well, good luck, because you

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Speaker 1: know in a situation where they're in such a tight

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Speaker 1: spot that they can't navigate through that without causing recession.

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Speaker 1: They know that. But The thing is, look at the system.

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Speaker 1: What are they driven by? It's all political right, We're

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Speaker 1: coming into mid terms here, Um Powell decided to stand

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Speaker 1: another term, and it's it's ego driven, it's politically driven,

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Speaker 1: you know. So the system is rewarding them for certain

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Speaker 1: behavior we saw today. Just just today, Mary Daily came

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Speaker 1: out um front. He she's the the head of the

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Speaker 1: reserve Federal Reserve of San Francisco, and she said, well,

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Speaker 1: I'm not feeling inflation at all. I'm good, but she

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Speaker 1: makes eight thousand dollars a week, you know, so I

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Speaker 1: mean let them eat cake. Right. So the separation of

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Speaker 1: wealth in this country is and the separation of power

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Speaker 1: has caused these the people who are in power to

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Speaker 1: be so out of touch with what is really going

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Speaker 1: on out there. And honestly, I mean, we're super blessed

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Speaker 1: in America. Just start there. You and I are are

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Speaker 1: so fortunate to be able to sit here and talk

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Speaker 1: about this without worrying about our next meal. I mean truly, Um,

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Speaker 1: and there we were just talking about this before we

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Speaker 1: came to the show. There's gonna be a billion people

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Speaker 1: who are are hungry this year or starving, and are

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Speaker 1: they thinking about that. You think that that the FED,

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Speaker 1: you know, chairman, are thinking about that. I know the heads, No,

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Speaker 1: they're not so. UM. And that's the problem. It's the system.

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Speaker 1: The system rewards them for certain behavior. And the closer

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Speaker 1: you are to the system heads, the closer you are

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Speaker 1: to this bigot, the better off you are. So the

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Speaker 1: issue is you've got to change the system. And we

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Speaker 1: know that, and that's why we talk about bitcoin at

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Speaker 1: nauseum because we know that the system is broken and

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Speaker 1: that's the problem. We're creating more and more separation of

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Speaker 1: wealth and in the United States, and it's becoming just

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Speaker 1: like all of those Latin American countries that we used

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Speaker 1: to look at in the emergent markets, where they have

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Speaker 1: just a barbell of of have and have not in

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Speaker 1: their in their countries. And we're we're rapidly approaching that here, Yeah, rapidly. UM.

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Speaker 1: I just finished up doing an interview on my new

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Speaker 1: book released, The Uncommon Manifesto. We're doing this this book

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Speaker 1: tour and it's uh. The the original book was the

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Speaker 1: most read book on both economics and political science. UM,

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Speaker 1: and so we rewrote rewrote the book. Um. It's not

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Speaker 1: about bitcoin, um, but it mentions the word I think

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Speaker 1: about ten times throughout the book. Um. But in this

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Speaker 1: interview we were just doing before and with another financial podcast,

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Speaker 1: the Wiggin Sessions. UM. He was saying, how, Um, this

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Speaker 1: this new system that you envision of, this free and

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Speaker 1: open and fair system, UM, there's really no way to

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Speaker 1: achieve that in the Fiat money system that we have today.

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Speaker 1: And so I bring that up because of what you're

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Speaker 1: saying right now. The more that you dig into these topics,

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Speaker 1: the more that you dig into the topics of the

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Speaker 1: Commons Manifesto, you realize that without some sort of a fair,

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Speaker 1: sound money system will never achieve that. Um. And you

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Speaker 1: can't draw a different conclusion. Um, not not if you

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Speaker 1: spent the time thinking about it. But you had said

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Speaker 1: before we started recording that there's more uncertainty today than

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Speaker 1: you think that you've remember at any time before. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at where we are today

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Speaker 1: in my my view, my my perspective comes from the

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Speaker 1: investment world, the financial world, and but we look at

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Speaker 1: just how much debt there is in the world, how

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Speaker 1: much credit has been extended, and how intricate it is,

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Speaker 1: how everything is interconnected. You know, you've got Japan, who

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Speaker 1: we've talked about, is doing yield curve control, and they

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Speaker 1: said that they will buy an unlimited number of their

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Speaker 1: own of their own japan Japanese treasuries and government bonds

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Speaker 1: in order to maintain that yield curve. Right, So they're

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Speaker 1: holding the tenure treasury at twenty five basis points and

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Speaker 1: they're buying as many as they can well or that

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Speaker 1: that they need too. And yeah, and then throughout the

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Speaker 1: day you can see its spike too instead of twenty

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Speaker 1: basis points to forty almost fifty basis points because traders

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Speaker 1: and hedge funds are taking the opposite bet that they're

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Speaker 1: going to have to back off that at some point. So, um,

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Speaker 1: that's one thing the END is suffering from it. We've

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Speaker 1: seen the END move negatively, um sharply in the last

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Speaker 1: few months, right, and it's it's pushing a point where

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Speaker 1: it's it's really hurting their own citizens. Okay, you've got

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Speaker 1: one thing there, then you've got Europe. They're doing the

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Speaker 1: same thing, but they're calling it a fragmentation tool where

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Speaker 1: you you know, the first time they've raised rates in

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Speaker 1: eleven years and now they're just now zero from negative

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Speaker 1: from negative to zero, and it's already pushing their bond

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Speaker 1: market into you can see the stresses, especially in Italy

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Speaker 1: and Greece, you know, and so they had to announce that,

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Speaker 1: don't worry, we're going to we're going to support Italy increase,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to buy bonds selectively in order to

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Speaker 1: be sure that their yields do not get out of control.

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Speaker 1: Why does that matter because his yields get get go

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Speaker 1: higher than it costs more to borrow the bank start

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Speaker 1: having stresses in their nation than their sovereign debt is

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Speaker 1: in trouble. So it all matters. And at some point

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Speaker 1: you have the northern countries and you have a Germany

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Speaker 1: who they're going to box their the CITI citizens are

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Speaker 1: not going to want to pay for that anymore, right,

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Speaker 1: They're going to demand austerity. They're going to demand something. Right.

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Speaker 1: So at the same time, you've got energy prices obviously

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Speaker 1: going through the roof in Europe, and you've got geopolitical

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Speaker 1: forces that are that are going to cause those to

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Speaker 1: stay high. And they don't have the supply They have

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Speaker 1: the supply issue where they cannot support themselves. They have

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Speaker 1: to absolutely buy from Russia. And then you go all

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Speaker 1: the way around the other side of the world. And

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Speaker 1: you've got China who has this housing crisis that's growing, right,

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Speaker 1: so they you have citizens that don't want to pay

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Speaker 1: for the houses they put their down payment on, and

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Speaker 1: the government's trying to swoop in and force them to

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Speaker 1: their seizing bank accounts. They're like, that's a that's another.

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Speaker 1: So you can see how it's all kind of it's

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Speaker 1: all swirling around, and then the US dollar is just

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Speaker 1: swallowing all of that the pressure coming from the other currencies.

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Speaker 1: Why the Fed is raising rates if you just look

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Speaker 1: at interest rate parody, we if you're if you're looking

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Speaker 1: for yield and you look for a flight to safety,

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Speaker 1: then you come to the United States, you buy dollars

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Speaker 1: by treasuries, right, So, and at some point the stress

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Speaker 1: gets too it just gets too big and it causes

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Speaker 1: a crack. And I don't know if it's in Japan,

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Speaker 1: if it's in China, if it's in Europe, but at

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Speaker 1: some point something breaks and we're pushing right up against that.

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Speaker 1: So the uncertainty is, well, we were all the Fiat system,

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Speaker 1: which is you've done research on the you've you've talked

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Speaker 1: about it quite a bit where this is a this

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Speaker 1: is an experiment that's not been going on for very long.

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Speaker 1: So every everybody who's alive right now is thinking, you know, well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's the way it's always been, you know. Um,

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Speaker 1: here's a good analogy. By the way, for everybody paying

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Speaker 1: attention for you. I'm I'm making notes. I don't forget

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Speaker 1: to come back to I'm not texting people. I've got

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Speaker 1: all these hateful comments. What are you doing texting on

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Speaker 1: this interview? It's so rude, But I don't want to

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Speaker 1: interrupt you, so I make I make notes to come

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Speaker 1: back to you. But UM, a good analogy is we're

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Speaker 1: pushing right up against the edge of something about to

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Speaker 1: be broke. We don't know what's gonna break, but we

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Speaker 1: know something's gonna break. And I was just thinking back to, uh,

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Speaker 1: the new Top Gun movie, which, by the by this

425
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: time I'm sure everybody has seen, was one of the

426
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: best movies I've seen in a long time, the first

427
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: movie I've seen him. But I didn't feel like propaganda

428
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: was being like shoved down my throat and I could

429
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 1: just like watch it. Um, But in the beginning he

430
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 1: went out to like he was testing that that plane.

431
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: He was like trying to get to a certain speed

432
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 1: or whatever, and like they were trying to shut down

433
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: the program and he's like I'm gonna go out and

434
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 1: break break, break the record or whatever, and like he

435
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: was pushing up against it and like, okay, you broke it.

436
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: Back off, back off, back off, but he wouldn't, and

437
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 1: like the whole thing like morning, morning, morning, right, and

438
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: like the whole thing was about to break apart, right,

439
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: and it's like back off, back off, and he's like nope,

440
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: and just like keep the pedals back up, and then

441
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: something broken. I feel like that's kind of where we're

442
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: at today. We see what's happening, we know it's inevitable,

443
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: and like if they would just back off, but the

444
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: problem is they've gone too far the and and there's

445
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: there is and there is no backing off. So is

446
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: the engine going to go out or is the windshield

447
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: gonna crack? Or is the wing gonna rip off? Like

448
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: we don't know, but something's about to go or even

449
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: more scary is that there may have already back to

450
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: your black Swan, there may have already been something that's

451
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 1: broken that we aren't seeing. And and so the forces

452
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: are too strong to reverse it. And so that's what

453
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: that's what worries me, is that, look that it's simple math.

454
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: You talk to Greg Foss about this, it's simple math.

455
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: If you're dead to g d P globally is three

456
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: and a half to one or four to one, the

457
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: math doesn't work. You don't grow out of it. Yeah,

458
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: you can't grow out of it. Um. The Japan thing,

459
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: that's a big that's a big deal. I mean, at

460
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 1: some point that's gonna break sooner than later. I think

461
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: once they pivot off of that, you know, basis point

462
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: um peg that they've identified, once they back off and go, okay,

463
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: well to point five or go to one. Once they

464
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: back off once, then it's it's game over. Then everybody

465
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: knows they're gonna come off of that's the problem. But

466
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 1: the European one seems even bigger to me because to

467
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: the point you're making about this fragmentation tool um. I

468
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: recently had alf Macro alphon Um maybe editor we can

469
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 1: link up to interview here, and we talked about that

470
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 1: fragmentation piece and the thing with the fragmentation pieces, it

471
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: really kind of is the perfect exampful of what's going

472
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: on with this fiat money system where what they've done

473
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 1: is they've cobbled together all these independent nations and the

474
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: pigs nations, the Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain, et cetera. They're

475
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 1: not pulling their weight. They can't survive, and so they

476
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: have to constantly get bailed out, bailed out, billed out.

477
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: We've seen that in two thousand and sixteen Greece and

478
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 1: their austerity and all that stuff. But even today they

479
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: still can't pull their weight. And so Germany has been

480
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 1: that engine that keeps pulling them forward. But now Italy,

481
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry, now Germany is falling behind. Now

482
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: Germany is a net importer, the interducer they just they

483
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: just flipped to be a net importer for for the

484
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 1: first time ever. Right so so now so now the

485
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: engine is broken that's been dragging them all forward. And

486
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 1: the reason why I think that's important is this fragmentation tool.

487
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: In order to save things we have in order in

488
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: order to make things more equal, we have to make

489
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: things less fair. We have to fragment. That's the trade

490
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 1: off equality or fairness. In order to get more equality,

491
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: we have to have more unfairness. The more fair we

492
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: are the less equal. We are, right, and so, um,

493
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 1: so what we want to do is we're going to

494
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: go steal the wealth from the producers and the savers

495
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 1: and we'll give it to all. We're gonna take all

496
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 1: the grades from the A students who spend all week

497
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 1: in studying, and we're going to give some of those

498
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: scores to the people the vaulting party at the frat

499
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 1: parties every weekend. And that doesn't last very long, and

500
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: so this fragmentation tool to me seems like the beginning

501
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 1: of the end. There's just no way they're going to

502
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 1: continue that, especially when they're getting squeezed now with the

503
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: whole NATO situation and the need for energy. So now

504
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 1: Germany's like, will shoot, um, we need energy, we have

505
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: to buy it, and you're taking all our wealth and

506
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,959
Speaker 1: given to these people, which we don't like. And Putin

507
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: says that if we don't, if we stay in NATO,

508
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: he's gonna cut us off. And we already kind of

509
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 1: want to leave anyway, so maybe we should just leave

510
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: right And like you start having all these different scenarios

511
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 1: to play out, well, I mean, there'll be a force

512
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: that at some point it'll be forced to break up

513
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: and that's just the reality and that you know, last year,

514
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: late last year, earlier this year, I thought, while Japan

515
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 1: is the one that's really they're they're the ones who

516
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: who are driving towards a problem fast. But Europe, I

517
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: mean they've taken kind of fronts front seat here. Yeah,

518
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: it's it's an issue. Yeah, and and and they're both

519
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 1: happening at the same time. And then you add the

520
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: war on top of it. So now Japan is in

521
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: on this war with Taiwan supposedly, and then you've got

522
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 1: Germany now is pledged to be on the war with Taiwan,

523
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: but at the same time they're also do with the

524
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: rest of the situations. So right, it's almost but it's

525
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 1: almost like, um, they're all joining in forces to have

526
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: the excuse to print more and just kick that can

527
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: down the road. Because remember, all they care about is

528
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: is like you said earlier in the in the conversations,

529
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: that they care about their own reward and the system

530
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: rewards them for being reelected and giving them power and

531
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: giving them money. You know, it's not that they're you know,

532
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: if you if you talk to Jeff Booth is uh

533
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 1: he means he'll say, look, it's not about them being evil,

534
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: it's not about being bad people. It's about the system

535
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: rewarding them for that behavior. So why would are we

536
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: really going to start a world war? Well, I mean

537
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: if it, if it somehow staves off that the collapse

538
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:11,239
Speaker 1: of multiple currencies, I mean, I could see them doing it.

539
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: I'm not a conspiracy theorist, you know, but but we're

540
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: always trying to understand incentives, because incentives show me the incentive,

541
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: I show you the outcome, so to speak. And so

542
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: if that's what they're being centivized to do, then most

543
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: likely that's where they're going to go. Right, we all,

544
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: we all work off incentives, which, of course Kinzians and

545
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 1: Marxists don't somehow believe or see incentives. They think that

546
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: we're all just digits on a spreadsheet. But they don't

547
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: they don't take into motivations in the center. So jumping

548
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: into motivations and incentives, let's bring it back to the

549
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: United States, and for anybody listening internationally, this matters to

550
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 1: you because of course, the dollars are of currency of

551
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: the world, and the Fed still drives that. UM. So

552
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: the Fed they have been UM November of last year

553
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: they said they're going to raise rates, and the markets

554
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: the risk, the risk on assets started selling off pretty quickly.

555
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: The nazac En bitcoin crypto made its all time high

556
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: in November and has since selling off. Sense SMP didn't

557
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: start selling off till then till January. Um, they got

558
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: really aggressive. Um they started raising rates. Um. Not as

559
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: aggressive as many of these Paul volkersh fans wish they

560
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: would be, but pretty aggressive. The markets have sold off

561
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 1: pretty pretty heavily. And now, um, the economy is crashing.

562
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: Now we have the White House Press Secretary coming out

563
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: and telling us that it's not a recession, right, we

564
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: don't have two GDPs of negative growth, and she said

565
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 1: that the economy is historically strong. Yeah. Well again it's

566
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: all framing because we have midterms coming up, right, So

567
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: that's the most important thing. Is the economy historically strong.

568
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: I don't feel like today it is. Well, do you

569
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: feel it or do you see it in the data?

570
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: I'd see it in the data that is not so

571
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: the problem is that, well, first of all, the FED

572
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: looks back at data that's old, right, and their reactionary

573
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: the heat. Powell even said it in I think two

574
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: conferences ago he said, we are reactionary, We react to

575
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: the data. We do the best we can. Okay, well,

576
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 1: do you really believe that though, I mean, they have

577
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: to PhD s, they have a thousand researchers working for them.

578
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: Are they really like we're looking at leading indicator data

579
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: and they're not. No, or that I think that they

580
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: have to act on data that that they can they

581
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: can pin you know there, um that our trust to

582
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: which they've lost our trust already. But um, so that's

583
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: number one is that they're their their reactionary to the data,

584
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: and the data is it's stale. So that's the first thing.

585
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: But if you look around and you and you see

586
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: the housing prices come down, the asset prices come down. Um,

587
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 1: people are the you know, the the employment numbers that

588
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: the uh, the the amount of of growth in wages.

589
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: Just this, the cost of goods is squeezing people. The

590
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: cost of gas, you know, is squeezing people. No, the

591
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: economy is not as strong as it was historically for sure. Well,

592
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 1: Biden by byde administration came out yesterday patting themselves in

593
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: the back. Gas rights through down eighty cents. Yeah, from

594
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: a high that he created, right right, They created this

595
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 1: this system or this administration, whatever you want to call

596
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: it created, right. So, and then they tout this, um

597
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: this unemployment number which is historically low, but they don't

598
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: talk about the labor participation rate being at one of

599
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: its lowest levels, right right, So you pull people out

600
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: of the the employment pool, and obviously the math works

601
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: out to be a lower inflation rate. So and how

602
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: many of the how many jobs are are filled by

603
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,719
Speaker 1: people who are working two and three jobs? I don't know,

604
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: and that's a good I don't know. That's a big

605
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: piece of it. And um, the amount of hours they're

606
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: working until we see the average workers down to like

607
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: thirty hours a week or not even a full time employment.

608
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: So that's the problem as well. So we see that

609
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: is bad. And then maybe some of the forward leaning

610
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 1: data that they can lean on. But I look at

611
00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: is um extensive polls that have been done, Uh, fifty

612
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: five percent of businesses think they'll be forced to shut

613
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: down over the next twelve months. UM. Sixty five percent

614
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: of all businesses in the transportation sector are behind on

615
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 1: their leases. Thirty percent of all small businesses are behind

616
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: on their monthly payments and leases. UM. So look at

617
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 1: the consumer confidence numbers, the consumer confidences is through the floor.

618
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: And then we've seen all the big Fortune five companies

619
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: announcing massive layoffs thousands of thousands of people at a time,

620
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 1: um and so all of the major tech companies have

621
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: said we're not hiring, hiring freeze at the least. So

622
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: we've seen everyone announced hiring freezes at the least massive

623
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 1: layoffs also, and that's forward leaning, meaning that hasn't shown

624
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: up in the data yet, but they just know that

625
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: they're going to lay the people off. We know those

626
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: people get laid off, we know they'll file for unemployment

627
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: and then we'll see it reflecting those numbers. And so

628
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: that's why it's like, how can they not look at

629
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: that data. They got to look at that data. They

630
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: have to look at the data. But they remember, they're

631
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: they're leaning really hard on data, the unemployment number that

632
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 1: they get that they can actually that they can publish

633
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: and say this is what we're making our decision off of.

634
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: It's all cover your ass, right, I mean, like they've

635
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: got it. They can't make a decision on something that

636
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 1: they think is happening. They've got to make a decision

637
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: or they've got to declare they've made their decision on

638
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: what they are seeing in in data they can they

639
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 1: can publish, they can present. So the second thing is

640
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: the CPI. Well, we were talking about the housing numbers

641
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: coming down, Well they haven't come down enough for the

642
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: cp I print to come down substantially enough to get

643
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: closer to that two percent rate that they're targeting. Right,

644
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 1: they won't they I don't think I don't think housing

645
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 1: is gonna come down at all for CPI brand. Well,

646
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 1: and that's of the of CPI, right, So it's a

647
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 1: it's a major contributing factor. But the equivalent, the housing equivalent.

648
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 1: Now that it's the housing equivalent, so that's the key piece.

649
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: And there's there's a big descrepancy. I posted on Twitter

650
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 1: yesterday about this because it's a homeowner's equivalent, so it's

651
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: not the price at home the present of your home

652
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: from five seven thousand. But they do a poll and

653
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 1: they ask homeowners what do they think they could rent

654
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: their house out for? Now, I don't know where they

655
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: get that data from. They've never asked me. Um, but

656
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 1: what we can see is that rents very greatly across

657
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 1: the country. So um, they showed I think a five

658
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: percent increase in shelter or something like that. But per

659
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: rent dot com, I posted on Twitter, Yes, today, Um,

660
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: the average nationwide rent increase was twenty six point eight percent.

661
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: That's the average with many areas going up over and

662
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 1: some actually going negative, some of someone negative, someone up,

663
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: so that the national average. So I don't know where

664
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 1: they get the five percent the national average. But what's

665
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: happening also is that what we're seeing is because rents

666
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: are typically least one year, two years, etcetera. Um, not

667
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 1: until you get that person out do really get to

668
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 1: market up. So now instead of now I can market

669
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: up by four hundred bucks a month or six hundred

670
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: bucks a month. And so we're really starting to see

671
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 1: that coming on. And so while home prices could drop,

672
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 1: so maybe it is going to go from five thousand

673
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: to four fifty or whatever four hundred, I think we're

674
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 1: just starting to see these rent increases coming through. Now.

675
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: They're lagging indicator. So and that's the problem is that

676
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: they're they're looking at this data and so I don't

677
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: think that. And you know, we talked about this morning. Um,

678
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 1: you Greg and I were kind of batting around on

679
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: on something I posted at Hey look, the FED can

680
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 1: and will raise again from what I see. You know,

681
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 1: because there you have, you have the FED staring at

682
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 1: numbers that they've got. They've got two CPI prints and

683
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 1: two unemployment UM releases between now and the next meeting

684
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: right in September. So unless this CPI print is is

685
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 1: drastically lower, what what would you say drastically is? Well,

686
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 1: I mean it would have to be down in the

687
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: in the four and a half to five and a

688
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: half percent range in my mind, so you have to

689
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 1: go but down by They would have to go down

690
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: quite a bit for them to say, Okay, we're getting there,

691
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 1: you know, otherwise they're still their foot is on the

692
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 1: on the break right. I think if it comes down

693
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 1: to six and a half percent, what do you think

694
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 1: he's going to say, Okay, well it's starting to come down.

695
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 1: But they've also come out to clarify his comments. You've

696
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: had multiple FED governors come out to clarify his comments,

697
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: which are, hey, look, we need to see a sustained

698
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: slowering meaningful. They use the word meaningful and sustain. So

699
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: that's not one print, it's multiple prints. So but I

700
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: think I think if we went from nine point one

701
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: back to eight point five to seven point eight. You know,

702
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: I think that's meaningful. Does that make them stop? I

703
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,879
Speaker 1: think so if they if it comes out to eight

704
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:49,919
Speaker 1: point five, you think it makes them stop. I don't

705
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: think it does. I think they could pause, wait and

706
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 1: see maybe maybe maybe begin because the problem is, you know, what,

707
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: do you know what the dot plot projects for them

708
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: right now? Or is that is I haven't looked at

709
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 1: the betty markets. The betty markets are pretty good about

710
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 1: showing where. Yeah, I haven't. Somewhere around it's somewhere around

711
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 1: three and a half percent, I think, you know, is

712
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: where they think will end. Yeah, it's the terminal where

713
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: they think there's like a half a point in front

714
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: of what are they? What are another another full point

715
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: another full point? So but I do think that we

716
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: do get that sustained. Okay, I'm not a bear, you know,

717
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 1: by any means. I think they will pivot. It's a

718
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: question of when. Sure, So I absolutely believe they will pivot.

719
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 1: They have to. It's a question of when. They don't

720
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 1: want to break that. They can't break the market, and

721
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 1: so I think it's going to be they'll they'll pause,

722
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:50,280
Speaker 1: hit the time out somewhere around the election. It makes sense,

723
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: right somewhere around November, they're going to hit the pause button,

724
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: declare victory and say, Okay, now we're just gonna step back,

725
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: and which would be one more raise basically, which would

726
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: be one more raise. Right, So, but the market is

727
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 1: not expecting a race. The market is basically said, Okay,

728
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 1: we're done. And I don't think that the FED is

729
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,359
Speaker 1: ready to say we're done. And so that's where that's

730
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 1: where I'm I'm I'm a little bit different in in

731
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: in my view from some people, and I just don't

732
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: think the FED thinks that we're done yet. But hey, look,

733
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 1: if this CPI print does come down to five and

734
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: a half six percent, maybe they do say, okay, now

735
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: it's really decreasing. It's it's decreased by you know that

736
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: that would be maybe that would be enough. I do

737
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: want to point out to everybody listening, just I always

738
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: like to clarify this. If we get the CPI print

739
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 1: from nine point one to six and a half, hooray, congratulations.

740
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,879
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean prices have gotten changed. That doesn't mean

741
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: things come down. What that means is they're still going

742
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: up at a crazy rate, just not quite as high

743
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 1: as they as fast as they were before. It means

744
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: that that that's right. So and that's the problem is

745
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 1: that it feeds on itself. It pounds and you know

746
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: the price of goods that are in the grocery store today,

747
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: they're not coming back down. It's not like you're going

748
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: to go back to oh, you know, milk is going

749
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: to go down by It's not. It's where it is.

750
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 1: It's just a question of how much does it inflate

751
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 1: in the future. Now, Remember, like we we talked about

752
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: um quite a bit, is that inflation is necessary for

753
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 1: for the FED to be able to pay off debts

754
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 1: that they are rolling off. You know, they have to

755
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: inflate it. And and that's back to the Austrian view

756
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 1: of inflating the way meaning increase the money supply, right

757
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 1: and which exactly exactly so, And you know, um, is

758
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 1: it will it work for a little while, but at

759
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: some point it breaks. When you say it breaks, what

760
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 1: do you think, Um, they're watching to break first. So

761
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 1: I think you've already kind of made the case. UM,

762
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 1: and I would agree if this is the case you're making,

763
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong, But um, they don't really

764
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: care about the economy of the markets. They care about

765
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: the full employment and the stable prices, and those are

766
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: kind of at odds against each other, but the stable prices,

767
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 1: so the inflation is their big target. So you know,

768
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 1: damn the economy and the markets. We need to get

769
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: inflation back under control. Um. But when they're looking at

770
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 1: something breaking to your point is that their credit markets,

771
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 1: credit markets, credit market, so they need to make sure

772
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: liquidity stays in the system. Yeah, because you know, once

773
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: you the high yield spreads go to a certain point

774
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 1: and it becomes very difficult for companies to borrow, and

775
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: then you start seeing companies fail, right, And I do

776
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 1: think we were still behind the curve on that We're

777
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: going to see some of that happen um. And if

778
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: companies failed, then we have too much demand instruction and

779
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: then the stable employment starts falling off a cliff. Yes, exactly,

780
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: so recession it nears depression. So I don't think we're

781
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 1: going to get into depression. I think they're going to

782
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: hit the brakes pretty hard before that and they will pivot. Um.

783
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 1: But that's what that Okay, after this this round of

784
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: of QUWI, that we're done, and now you have this

785
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: little bit of QT. Whether or not they ever roll

786
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 1: anything off of the balance sheet remains to be seen. Um.

787
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 1: But that's the other thing is if you roll two

788
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 1: trillion dollars off the balance sheet, that's that's the equivalent

789
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: of another it's about it's about a quarter percent I

790
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 1: think per five and a billion dollars of of quantitative tightening.

791
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 1: So you think about that if they if they start

792
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 1: really rolling some of this off of the balance sheet,

793
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: that that has the effect the same effect, um just muted. Right.

794
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 1: So there's there's that. But at some point they pivot

795
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:52,240
Speaker 1: and we need some liquidity injected back into the system.

796
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: We have inflation, grow the money supply, and you get

797
00:42:56,200 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: to the point where the next, the next round of

798
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: QUI is so substantial that the confidence begins to fall,

799
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 1: the falter. And so it won't be in the United

800
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 1: States first. I think the United States will be the last.

801
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 1: But you will have countries. You'll have Japan, you will

802
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: have the Union, the European Union. You'll have major countries fail,

803
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: whether it's Canada or um, you know other nations that

804
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 1: that are that will push up against the edge. They'll

805
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: fail in this next round. So I think we've we

806
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 1: we've kind of done the last round in this fiat experiment.

807
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: So do do you think the FED wants that they

808
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: want for other currencies and nations to fail? No, I

809
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: don't think they particularly want it. Um. I don't know

810
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 1: how much they care. I don't know, um, but they don't.

811
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 1: I don't think they particularly want a dollar milkshake. You know,

812
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: you know they want that, m so um. A common

813
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 1: argument against cryptocurrencies, in bitcoin would be that the central

814
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 1: bank would never allow something to challenge that and take

815
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 1: away their power like bitcoin, right, And I agree that

816
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 1: that's that's of course right. F A higher said there

817
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: should never be a sound mony aga until the thing

818
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: is taken from the hands of the government. But it

819
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 1: can't be done by force because they're always going to

820
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 1: fight it and you can't fight it. Um. And if

821
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 1: that's the case, which we both agree it is, I

822
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,760
Speaker 1: think most people would sounds they want it. Well, then

823
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 1: does the FED want to seed control to the e

824
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: c B. Of course not. Yeah, but I don't think

825
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 1: there's a danger of that. Okay, So there's no danger

826
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 1: of any other currencies take taking the power off of

827
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 1: the dollar. Seems like sure, seems like a lot of

828
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 1: people in government think that's the case. We've seen many politicians,

829
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: Brad Sherman from California one of them, grandstanding on this.

830
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 1: We have to maintain, even Elizabeth Warren, we have to

831
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: maintain the dollars. Dominance is what allows allows us, that's

832
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,760
Speaker 1: what allows us to do sanctions and all these things.

833
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: And so um, control control control, control, control, right. So, Um,

834
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 1: wouldn't the FED. I mean we've seen the Fed, or

835
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 1: we should say, we've seen the dollar losing its place

836
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 1: as the reserve status for quite some time, and it's

837
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 1: down falling from I believe, believe some sixty at this point. Um.

838
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: And so at some point wouldn't they want to like, well, shoot,

839
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 1: we better stand this back up again. Well, I don't

840
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 1: think they have to do much for that, for for

841
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: the dollar to regain quite a bit of that dominance. Um.

842
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: As we see Western nations and we will see them

843
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 1: fail and uh and Latin American countries fail, um, and

844
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: they will roll into the U. S. Dollar more or

845
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 1: less through the Brents milkshake theory, you know, just through

846
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: liquidity um, and which which is what's happening now. Right,

847
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: So we have a dollar shortage on our hands. All

848
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: these nations want to move into the dollar and they

849
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 1: want to buy the tray, but in order to buy that,

850
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 1: they need the dollars, right, So, and the dollar milkshake

851
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: theory for those Brent shots and from Santiago Capital Um

852
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 1: came up with this, Uh this, I guess it's an analogy,

853
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: but he said, it's like you're sitting there right all

854
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: the way across the table, and you have your milkshake,

855
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: and I have a really long straw, and so I

856
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:11,360
Speaker 1: can plunk my straw into your milkshake and drink it. Well,

857
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 1: your it's your currency. I'm the US dollar, and that

858
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: straw is all the liquidity needs, you know, all of

859
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 1: the US dollarge denominated debt, the US dollar denominated liabilities. Uh,

860
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 1: the you know, the difference in foreign exchange rates. So

861
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 1: for for countries or sovereigns or individuals or investors who

862
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 1: are looking for higher yield, they'll they'll go through right

863
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 1: through that straw into the U. S Dollar. It's exactly

864
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 1: what you're talking about. So it's going to happen. It is.

865
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 1: I think we're seeing it kind of happening slow motion here,

866
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 1: and I think it's going to happen. Over the course

867
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 1: of the next round of QWI where it happens rapidly

868
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: for a number of nations. The problem is for the

869
00:46:56,719 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: US is that it's not just bitcoin. But we've we've

870
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: had a little bit of a wake up call that

871
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,240
Speaker 1: you know, it kind of matters to have hard assets

872
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:11,320
Speaker 1: and commodities in your nation, to back your currency with energy, energy,

873
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 1: it matters. Yeah. So um, yeah, so that's that's Uh.

874
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 1: I think it's around the corner. I don't think it's

875
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 1: right up against us, but maybe, UM, I don't know,

876
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:23,839
Speaker 1: what do you think? You and I have talked about

877
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:27,760
Speaker 1: this before. You thought that this might be it. I thought,

878
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: I thought that there's a chance to to to the

879
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: framing that I asked you that question, and that the

880
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,840
Speaker 1: FED want to do kind of re exert its dominance

881
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 1: and so kind of drain some of liquidity out of

882
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 1: other currencies. We've seen this happening. UM. At a meeting

883
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 1: in June of one, J. Powell and Christine Leguard of

884
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 1: the i m F had met and said, um, uh

885
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 1: and ECB previously with the i m F, now with ECB,

886
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 1: UM and had said, Hey, we're not doing this woke stuff.

887
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 1: We're not doing this green stuff. We're not going to print,

888
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 1: you know, a hundred trillion dollars for you to do this,

889
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 1: like good luck with that. And um So that was

890
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: kind of like this this separation of alignment because the

891
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: East the East, you have the different camps. You have

892
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 1: like the ECB, which would also include the WEF weft

893
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 1: Davos ECB and even out even put the Obama Biden

894
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 1: administration in that camp. Um. And so they have this

895
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 1: massive agenda to re industrialize the world and transition the

896
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 1: energy and spend a hundred and I think it's up

897
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 1: to like a hundred seventy three trillion dollars to do

898
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: that now, um And I think the FEDS like, look,

899
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: that's not our mandate. We're not mandating to like print

900
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: a hundred joion dollars to transition. Ours are back to

901
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: we said like stable employment and uh, stable prices and

902
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:43,279
Speaker 1: full employment. Um so we said we're out, like good

903
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 1: luck with that. And then it was the words, but

904
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 1: then it with the actions and the next days when

905
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 1: they started to raise the rates the very next day

906
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 1: after that meeting and started raising the reverse repo rate

907
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,839
Speaker 1: and started draining liquidity out of the ECB and so

908
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,320
Speaker 1: to the point they've really put these nations in a

909
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,760
Speaker 1: rock on a hard place. I guess it doesn't really

910
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:04,319
Speaker 1: matter so much why, and so I think that's one thing.

911
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 1: But I think at the other end, like the FED

912
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,239
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily need to do that. These other currencies have

913
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: already destroyed themselves. And so, um, I think maybe I

914
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 1: would probably agree with you in a sense where you

915
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 1: said that that's maybe not what they want, but they

916
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 1: don't care if it happens. They're not actively stopping it, right,

917
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 1: they don't. They don't. They don't need to. Like they

918
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,399
Speaker 1: can see they're on their way out and they they're

919
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 1: not They're not going to pivot off their decision to

920
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 1: save them. Um, I don't know. I guess that's right, Matt. Now,

921
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 1: I think I think the Obama Biden White House, along

922
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: with the ECB Davos euro Group, would probably like the FED.

923
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:41,800
Speaker 1: And that is where I see the FED and the

924
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 1: Biden White House are really kind of starting to break apart.

925
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 1: I think those are two different factions. Um. I think

926
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: the FED doesn't care about what the globalists want. They

927
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 1: really care about the dollar and what their mandates are.

928
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 1: I agree, And if you if you want to assert control.

929
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 1: The easiest thing to do in the short term, UH

930
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 1: is to institute a CBDC. Instituting CBDC that we we've

931
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: talked about it, and then that that is exactly where

932
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 1: they want to go. Elizabeth Warren, she wants a CBDC.

933
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 1: She doesn't want big gool and she wants the ability

934
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 1: to determine exactly what goes into your ban account, when

935
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 1: it goes into your ban account, what you can spend

936
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 1: it on when it expires. That's what they want. That

937
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 1: gives them ultimate control, right do you think that? Um?

938
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:29,359
Speaker 1: So there's the control side. But the problem that we

939
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,360
Speaker 1: are facing today or we're seeing in other nations, is

940
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: that it's the Fiat money printing and so they've created

941
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:38,919
Speaker 1: way too much money. They've had to drive interest rates

942
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 1: all the way down to keep propping this bubble up. Um.

943
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 1: And so that's the proverbial rock in the hard place. Right,

944
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 1: So either the markets crash or they keep pumping them

945
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: up with the inflation go sky, they need negative real rates.

946
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: They need negative that's the financial repression. Um. But in

947
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: order to keep the asset, in order to keep everything

948
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 1: from crumbling down, to keep the businesses from going out

949
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: of business and people losing their jobs. Um, then they

950
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 1: have to keep pumping money in the system. But as

951
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,720
Speaker 1: they keep pumping in the system, that inflation keeps raging.

952
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: And so that's like proverbal rock and hard place, right,

953
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 1: So do cbdc's help. That just helps them control down

954
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: to the individual how much liquid he gets into the system,

955
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: where and how right. So, if they're worried about food prices,

956
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 1: then they could put controls on where you could spend

957
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 1: your money. And you can spend it on energy, but

958
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 1: not food. You can spend it on gas, but you

959
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: can't spend it at the grocery store. You can't spend

960
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: it in a restaurant, you know. So they can put

961
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 1: controls that go dial right down into the daily life

962
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 1: of anybody they hand that money too. And again it

963
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 1: goes right down to if they're going to have a

964
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 1: stimulus check it, it goes into it, it goes directly

965
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,759
Speaker 1: into your account from the FED, and they have every

966
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 1: single control parameter on that. So so it's a lot

967
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 1: target a lot more targeted. So for example, this low

968
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 1: income family, they're a commuter, they're spending way too much

969
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 1: on asked Let's give them money that's programmed where they

970
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 1: can only spend it on gas, right or or say,

971
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 1: you know you you can only spend it on this

972
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: much of gas, so start um doing a ride share,

973
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 1: so you have to come up with a way to

974
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 1: go to go to work with somebody else, you know,

975
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 1: and and by doing some measures like that that will

976
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: help this proverbial rock and a hard metal I just

977
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 1: think that that's what they want. They think that they

978
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: think that they think it will help them, right, and

979
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 1: that's what I They think that they'll having that control

980
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 1: and their algorithms will help them. Of course it won't.

981
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 1: The problem that what they think is that, you know,

982
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:41,279
Speaker 1: central planning noise fails because it doesn't have enough data.

983
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 1: So a group of people in d C, I have

984
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 1: no idea what I want here in California, right and

985
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 1: so um it always fails it up with enough data.

986
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 1: But if they can get all this data, then they

987
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:55,759
Speaker 1: think they could manage it better. Um, so I get that.

988
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 1: But do they think it gets them out of this

989
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,120
Speaker 1: brebial rock in a hard place? Because the same was

990
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 1: like it's an e no no, I think it's just

991
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 1: a defensive measure against something like bitcoin. Yeah, so so then,

992
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 1: um So then if that's not going to help them

993
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: get through this transition, which seems like it's inevitable. Um,

994
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people say a lot of

995
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,959
Speaker 1: people may be watching this or like I've been hearing

996
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 1: this for fifty years. Well, for fifty years, we have

997
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 1: the gold standard fifty years ago. For fifty years, we've

998
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 1: been getting closer and closer and closer and closer. Um.

999
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: You know, as Luke, as Luke Rahman says, we see

1000
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:30,320
Speaker 1: the signposts, we know, we see the signs are getting closer.

1001
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 1: We don't know exactly how long it takes the distance

1002
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: to each one of those signs. Um, but it has

1003
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:36,839
Speaker 1: been happening for the last fifty years, and we're getting there.

1004
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:38,719
Speaker 1: So if it, if it doesn't help them out of

1005
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 1: this situation, um, than what then reset? Reset may mean

1006
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 1: there's no other way unless you unless they we we

1007
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 1: somehow get enough leaders who understand and believe in a

1008
00:53:56,160 --> 00:54:01,240
Speaker 1: you know, using bitcoin for instance, as a reserve asset.

1009
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 1: There's no other way to ground this currency. It's it's

1010
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 1: a fiat currency that is literally floating away and there's

1011
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 1: there's no way to ground it. You can't ground it

1012
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 1: with gold. Um. And gold is why can't you ground

1013
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 1: its way too manipulated with with paper markets, you just

1014
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 1: can't do it. So Um, there's just I don't see

1015
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:26,359
Speaker 1: a way for them to do that, to go back

1016
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 1: to the gold standard. What about people the same Bitcoin

1017
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 1: is manipulated, Well, it is, but not not nearly as

1018
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 1: much as gold, you know. Um, And maybe they would

1019
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: be if if if we allowed it to um, if

1020
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 1: we allowed all the paper markets to be built on

1021
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 1: top it like gold has. But the big difference I

1022
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,399
Speaker 1: see with that is that gold is very opaque because

1023
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: it a couple of things. One taking possession of gold

1024
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 1: it's very difficult. And so like if I want an ounce,

1025
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:54,720
Speaker 1: that's easy. I can put an ounce in my pocket.

1026
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 1: But if you're proving it, yeah, but if you're a

1027
00:54:57,000 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 1: sovereign and you need, you know, hunter billion dollars worth

1028
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 1: of gold, how do you delivery of that is very difficult?

1029
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: Proving it to be good gold? Right, China was found

1030
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 1: with all this fake gold. That's the problem, um. But

1031
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:10,439
Speaker 1: then um, the audibility, the proving nos of it to

1032
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 1: to your point, the validation, but that's the validation of it.

1033
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 1: Is it real gold? But how much gold is there?

1034
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:18,759
Speaker 1: How many paper contracts are there versus the physical we

1035
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 1: don't really have any visibility to that, whereas with bitcoin

1036
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 1: we have on chained data, so we'll always know exactly

1037
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 1: how much bitcoin there is, we'll know exactly where it is,

1038
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 1: and we'll always know how much paper is on top

1039
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 1: of it, and so so one that transparency I think

1040
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:34,840
Speaker 1: will really hurt their ability to be able to manipulate

1041
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 1: it as much. And then too because of the ability

1042
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:40,520
Speaker 1: to just custody it myself. Um. Then a lot of

1043
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,720
Speaker 1: a lot of what I think sets that paper market

1044
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 1: up is like the E t F and stuff that

1045
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 1: we have, and so we don't need E t F

1046
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 1: if I can just buy it directly, agreed, Um, I

1047
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 1: mean and ETFs they could help adoption of bitcoin and

1048
00:55:56,320 --> 00:56:01,240
Speaker 1: get and and spread the adoption through the smaller institutional world,

1049
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 1: um pretty rapidly. Look, if you're an individual, this is

1050
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 1: the first time where you have the ability to step

1051
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 1: into something before the institutions to when when I was

1052
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 1: on the you know, working the hedge fund in the

1053
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 1: late nineties early two thousand's, we would scramble all over

1054
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 1: each other to try to get these these shares of

1055
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:24,320
Speaker 1: the I p O is the hot I p O

1056
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:27,879
Speaker 1: shares right then, anything you could do to get JP

1057
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgans staying their goalmen to give you just

1058
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,359
Speaker 1: a few shares of this thing called Google. You would

1059
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,439
Speaker 1: do anything, you know, like, yeah, we're gonna we're gonna

1060
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 1: do more trades with whatever we need to do, and

1061
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,320
Speaker 1: they might give you a thousand or two thousand shares

1062
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,440
Speaker 1: of this you would you would ask for a hundred thousand,

1063
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 1: you'd ask for a million, and they would give you

1064
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 1: a few thousand shares. Well, we got those shares at

1065
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 1: the I p O price, completely legal, you know, but

1066
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 1: that's what it was. You got the shares at the

1067
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 1: I p O price and then you were able to

1068
00:56:57,719 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 1: go into the market the next day and it would

1069
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 1: is up in an instant and that's where the retail

1070
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,880
Speaker 1: buyers bought it, the people that the mom and pops,

1071
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 1: the individuals, that's where they bought it. Okay, So you

1072
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 1: have the exact opposite that's going on right now with bitcoin,

1073
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 1: where institutions it's not easy for them to get into bitcoin,

1074
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 1: and you know, it's hard to understand if you haven't

1075
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: sat in one of these institutions, but they have to

1076
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 1: go through so many steps to get it approved to

1077
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 1: be a separate managed asset or to be added to

1078
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 1: the portfolio, because it's so it's so different. It's not

1079
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 1: regulated like other assets are. Right, So the problem is

1080
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 1: they have to go through meetings and approvals and meetings

1081
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 1: and approvals, and they have to they have to come

1082
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 1: up with uh, they have to come up with with

1083
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 1: compliance measures. They have to decide who's going to settle,

1084
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 1: how it's gonna settle, who's gonna cuss it like, there's

1085
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 1: just so much that has to happen. It takes months

1086
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 1: and months and months. But if you're an individual, you

1087
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 1: can go out and buy bitcoin today and haven't your

1088
00:57:57,680 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 1: wallet before the institution even us our first meeting. And

1089
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 1: that's the difference. So and so in ETF will help

1090
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: those institutions get there and help UM. It will help

1091
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 1: their investors. Remember they're they're managing investments for individuals. These

1092
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 1: are pension funds, their endowments, you know, but there UM

1093
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:22,560
Speaker 1: primarily pension funds who are managing assets for individuals, and

1094
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 1: so those individuals get that benefit. That will help bitcoin

1095
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 1: get to a status of of stable value, a store

1096
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 1: of value once it gets enough market value that will

1097
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 1: enow that will allow it to get to the stable

1098
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 1: value where it becomes much more tradeable, much it becomes

1099
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 1: much safer, and that the volatility will drop and at

1100
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: that point that that's where the adoption curve I think

1101
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:58,480
Speaker 1: really takes off. So if that makes sense, I look

1102
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:03,120
Speaker 1: at im I made many videos about talking about how

1103
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 1: bitcoin isn't just a new technology. It's a technological revolution.

1104
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:09,160
Speaker 1: And it's difficult to understand because it's a lot of

1105
00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 1: things today and it's gonna be a lot more things

1106
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: in the future we don't know. But I look at

1107
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 1: it as um it's a new set of building blocks

1108
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 1: that allows us to build new things on top of

1109
00:59:17,560 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 1: So for example, we've had five technological revolutions, one of

1110
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 1: which was steel. M steel. What is this, Well, it's

1111
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 1: a harder metal. Okay, what do we do with it? Well,

1112
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 1: it allows us to build things we couldn't build before,

1113
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 1: like skyscrapers and bridges. Okay, um, right, So it's a

1114
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 1: new set of building blocks that now we have spaceships

1115
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 1: because we have steel, right, they didn't know that at

1116
00:59:38,160 --> 00:59:40,360
Speaker 1: the time. Or electricity, Well, what is it? It's like

1117
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 1: a digital candle? Okay, But it's a building block. What

1118
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:44,440
Speaker 1: can we do with electricity, Well, we could do something

1119
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 1: like we're doing right now. We have lights UM and

1120
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 1: so bitcoin is UH is digital cash, digital gold, it's

1121
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: all those things today, But it's also a set of

1122
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 1: building blocks. We can build all new types of things

1123
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 1: off of UM. One a good example is Jack Dorsey's

1124
00:59:57,560 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 1: new company. They're working on these those d I d

1125
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:02,720
Speaker 1: s de central decentralized identifiers and they use the Bitcoin

1126
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 1: block chain to hash into the secure I D and

1127
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 1: so without the time chain, the Bitcoin time chain, they

1128
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 1: wouldn't have that now build off of Okay, so if

1129
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 1: we have if we have a new set of building blocks,

1130
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 1: we can build all different types of things off of UM.

1131
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 1: Like like I've just given that example, how do you

1132
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 1: see the space shaping up in the future, UM, as

1133
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 1: far as like UM being built on like a like

1134
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:29,960
Speaker 1: a like an industry or like a category. Right, so,

1135
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 1: like sure, right now we have some exchanges where you

1136
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 1: can go exchange your feat currency from bitcoin UM some

1137
01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:38,360
Speaker 1: exchanges you can exchange your bitcoin for other assets whatever.

1138
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: But UM, do you see lots of other types of

1139
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 1: things being built on these new seting building blocks? And

1140
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 1: if so, UM How does that get funded? I mean,

1141
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 1: our venture capital is gonna have to kind of start

1142
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 1: to recognize that and then move into that category. Yeah,

1143
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 1: I mean you can. You can think about any financial

1144
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 1: industry that could be applied to it, right so um

1145
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 1: and just about mortgages, right um. Or lending like having

1146
01:01:04,440 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 1: asset based lending that is actually you actually can have

1147
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 1: verification of where those assets are and you don't have

1148
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 1: this problem of fractional lending where you lending upon lending

1149
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 1: upon lending upon lending, because you can verify exactly where

1150
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 1: they are in in some sort of escrow account. And

1151
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 1: of course that that can all be built on that.

1152
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 1: How does it get funded? Sure? Venture capital is super important. Um.

1153
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 1: And as these fledgling companies, um, they have their ideas,

1154
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 1: they have that this whatever they're working on, Uh, they

1155
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 1: need a little bit of money to get going. And

1156
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:49,680
Speaker 1: and just like any technology, and even though you know

1157
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 1: it's not just the technology, but just like any other technology,

1158
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 1: you you need to do some sort of research and

1159
01:01:56,200 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 1: proof of concept and all of that and that takes

1160
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 1: and sometimes it takes a few millions, it takes tens

1161
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 1: of millions. It depends on how big the project is.

1162
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,880
Speaker 1: Obviously you know that you've done a ton of investing. Yeah,

1163
01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:09,240
Speaker 1: I have. I asked that question more specifically because of

1164
01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 1: the plebs, that the bitcoin plebs, and they're so hardcore

1165
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: in this vision of wanting this bitcoin world where bitcoin

1166
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: becomes dominant and everything is based off a bitcoin and

1167
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 1: we're on a bitcoin standard. But in order to get there,

1168
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 1: you know, we're going to need to develop that world.

1169
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 1: That world has to be built, and so like it's

1170
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 1: going to take a massive amount of investment, right, But

1171
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:33,760
Speaker 1: they're like, we're only going to buy bitcoin and we're

1172
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 1: never going to do anything other than just buy bitcoin.

1173
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 1: But it's like, well, how do you expect to have

1174
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:39,680
Speaker 1: this world unless people invest into that world and build

1175
01:02:39,680 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 1: that world out. So it's like the world they want

1176
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 1: is like geometrically or diametrically opposed to it's almost well,

1177
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:49,919
Speaker 1: I think they're just making a leap without making having

1178
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 1: that bridge to get there, right, So, just a misunderstanding

1179
01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 1: of how things actually get built out. Yeah, I mean,

1180
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:59,720
Speaker 1: it's a simple misunderstanding of or just not being being

1181
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 1: exposed to how these things actually happened. How you know,

1182
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 1: a Google doesn't just happen in somebody's garage. You know, UM,

1183
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 1: you can start there, but you need a lot of investment,

1184
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:14,880
Speaker 1: you know, to get something like that to UM to

1185
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:19,480
Speaker 1: actually grow and expand properly. UM. And so yeah, you

1186
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: need you're we're going to need We're gonna need trillions

1187
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 1: of dollars come into this space, you know, many trillions.

1188
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 1: And uh and I do I do see I do

1189
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:34,520
Speaker 1: see a lot of interest in institutional investing in what's okay,

1190
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 1: So how is this going to work? And what what

1191
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,600
Speaker 1: is it? What does it really do? UM Beyond just

1192
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 1: this initial conversation of oh bitcoins, digital gold, you know,

1193
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: it reminds me a lot of what I see in

1194
01:03:48,560 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 1: in the E s G space today, where you have

1195
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 1: all these people coming on board and saying, yeah, we

1196
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 1: need to reduce um a reliance on fossil fuels and

1197
01:03:56,720 --> 01:04:00,360
Speaker 1: we need to reduce our energy usage. But like, do

1198
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 1: you understand it's through the introduces that you're able to

1199
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:05,080
Speaker 1: have this world that you have, right Or you have

1200
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,880
Speaker 1: this really rich guy from New York who takes this

1201
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 1: private helicopter to Wyoming and he's on the styles and

1202
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 1: Acre ranch and he looks out and he goes, this

1203
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 1: is so amazing. The whole world should stay pristine and untouched,

1204
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 1: just like this, not realizing what went into his ability

1205
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:20,200
Speaker 1: to have that wealth and get on the helicopter and

1206
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 1: go there. And I think that's kind of maybe the

1207
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:23,640
Speaker 1: same mentality I see with a lot of clubs today

1208
01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:26,120
Speaker 1: where they're like, I'm just gonna buy bitcoin, and why

1209
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 1: would I ever invest in any bitcoin type companies, um,

1210
01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 1: but not realizing that the world that they want to

1211
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 1: live in is going to take investment, and unfortunately, some

1212
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:35,640
Speaker 1: people are gonna have to take that risk. Hopefully there's

1213
01:04:35,640 --> 01:04:37,919
Speaker 1: a reward and there's a whole another conversation we could

1214
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:40,760
Speaker 1: have based off of that risk reward profile. Um. But

1215
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 1: in order to get that world to your point, it's

1216
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:45,520
Speaker 1: gonna take trillions of dollars to get invested, and the

1217
01:04:45,520 --> 01:04:47,360
Speaker 1: money has to come from somewhere. And so I like

1218
01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 1: to have a philosophy for myself is invest in the

1219
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,680
Speaker 1: world that I want right, help that help that come

1220
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:54,920
Speaker 1: to fruition. Yeah, and you can, you know, you can

1221
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 1: invest your time, you can invest your money, you can um,

1222
01:04:57,680 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 1: you can introduce people to each other, you can never work,

1223
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 1: help people network and and all those things are are

1224
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:09,360
Speaker 1: incredibly important for new ideas to come to fruition. And

1225
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:13,080
Speaker 1: you know, I've seen plenty of great ideas die on

1226
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 1: the vine just because they just didn't have enough momentum,

1227
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:19,800
Speaker 1: enough people, enough enough money, and enough energy go into

1228
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 1: them to get them going. And Bitcoin, I think is

1229
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:28,320
Speaker 1: I do believe it's it's ultimately, you know, it's going

1230
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:31,000
Speaker 1: to happen. Just I don't know if it's going to

1231
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 1: happen in my lifetime that we get on a bitcoin standard,

1232
01:05:34,520 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 1: but ultimately we get there. That's my belief. Um. And

1233
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:42,080
Speaker 1: maybe it's like you said earlier in the conversation, because

1234
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 1: I'm an optimist and I want the world to be better.

1235
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 1: I want these problems to be fixed. I want the

1236
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 1: Fiat issues to be fixed. But just because people who

1237
01:05:51,640 --> 01:05:56,000
Speaker 1: are in currently in that Fiat system, that old traditional

1238
01:05:56,200 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 1: financial system, just because they're coming over doesn't mean that

1239
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 1: it's going to change that trajectory. I just think it

1240
01:06:06,440 --> 01:06:08,920
Speaker 1: can accelerate it as long as you get them to

1241
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:12,360
Speaker 1: believe and really understand it. And that's where the big

1242
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:14,840
Speaker 1: leaps are going to be made, where where you have

1243
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 1: these super powerful people or super wealthy people who get

1244
01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 1: it and they understand it, and that's going to be

1245
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 1: the big leap. It's not about you know, UM, it's

1246
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 1: not about being an investment and making money on it.

1247
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:32,400
Speaker 1: It's about understanding really what the proposition is here and

1248
01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:36,760
Speaker 1: why this system will make the world better. Yeah. I

1249
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:38,600
Speaker 1: think well we'll wrap it up with that. I think

1250
01:06:38,680 --> 01:06:41,880
Speaker 1: that the taking thought I have that seems to kind

1251
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 1: of go throughout this whole conversation and really wraps up

1252
01:06:44,200 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 1: with what the part you're talking about there, And something

1253
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 1: I've been talking a lot about recently with with my

1254
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:52,640
Speaker 1: book released on Commons Manifesto. Um is um congratulations, Yeah,

1255
01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:56,840
Speaker 1: thank you. Is um is people needing to think past

1256
01:06:57,040 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 1: first order, people needing to look past the headline, people

1257
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:04,800
Speaker 1: needing to spend a little bit of time to do

1258
01:07:04,840 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 1: a little bit of research and think through these things.

1259
01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:10,520
Speaker 1: And UM, if you can't spend the time to like

1260
01:07:10,640 --> 01:07:13,360
Speaker 1: just think through this a little bit, you're never gonna

1261
01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:16,480
Speaker 1: make it. And so UM when it comes to thinking

1262
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:19,400
Speaker 1: through this economy, as we talked about, or um back

1263
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 1: to investing through bitcoin, you're gonna have to spend the

1264
01:07:21,600 --> 01:07:26,439
Speaker 1: time an investment in yourself, on your own education, and

1265
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 1: it pays off in spades. Um. Anything else we didn't

1266
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:32,800
Speaker 1: talk about that you want to bring up. No, I

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01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:35,400
Speaker 1: think it's great. I think having me on here, I

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01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 1: like your I like your town here. It's awesome. Thank you,

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01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 1: thank you. Don't docks it. But um, I know you've

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01:07:42,400 --> 01:07:45,600
Speaker 1: been recently writing quite a bit on your sub stack UM,

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01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:48,280
Speaker 1: so we'll definitely give a link to that down below

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01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:50,840
Speaker 1: for everyone to check out. UM. Of course follow you

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01:07:50,880 --> 01:07:52,520
Speaker 1: on Twitter where you're getting to be more and more

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01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,480
Speaker 1: active and you're probably starting to realize it's a big

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01:07:55,600 --> 01:07:57,439
Speaker 1: suck on your time and you're gonna trying to figure

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01:07:57,480 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 1: that out like I am a lot of time at

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Speaker 1: James Lavish will link that down below as well. That

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Speaker 1: we'll signed off. All right, thank you, Mallie. Thanks right,

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Speaker 1: all right, that's a wrap. Thanks for listening to this

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01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:12,240
Speaker 1: conversation we did with James Lavish. Uh. It was a

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01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 1: great conversation. I love doing him in studio. Hopefully that

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01:08:14,920 --> 01:08:18,479
Speaker 1: was entertaining for you and informative. We've covered a lot

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01:08:18,520 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 1: of ground. I'd love to know what you think about it, so,

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01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 1: of course, as always, leave me a comment, let me

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01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:25,679
Speaker 1: if you think, ask any questions that you have. I'd

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01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:27,120
Speaker 1: love to be more interactive with you if you have

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01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 1: questions about any of this, and that's what I got

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01:08:29,240 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 1: for today. All right, to your success. I'm out.