Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, welcome to the Buck Brief.
Speaker 1: We're doing a twenty twenty four look ahead show with
Speaker 1: a big predictions putting on my no Stredamus hat. If
Speaker 1: you will making the calls way in advance for what's
Speaker 1: going to happen next year. Hopefully this will be very
Speaker 1: entertaining and informative for just the short while that we're
Speaker 1: chatting about it. And if I'm wrong about everything, I'll
Speaker 1: just delete this, so you know what I mean. We'll
Speaker 1: just pretend like could never happen, just like every other
Speaker 1: pundit would do, right. But no, seriously, there's some interesting
Speaker 1: things I want to talk about, national security predictions, economy predictions,
Speaker 1: political predictions, and I'm going to do them in that order.
Speaker 1: Start with national security. My belief is that in this
Speaker 1: coming year you will see it. Now, this isn't a
Speaker 1: out there prediction. I think this may be a bit
Speaker 1: of a concer census one at this point. But let's
Speaker 1: look at Russia Ukraine. It's going to continue. Very little
Speaker 1: will change, very little will change, especially given that there's
Speaker 1: a US election going on, they're not going to want
Speaker 1: to rock the boat very much, and so you will
Speaker 1: have a stalemate ongoing where not a lot of land
Speaker 1: is going to change from Ukraine enhands to Russian hands
Speaker 1: and vice versa. It will just just stumble on. I
Speaker 1: suppose this horrible conflict that should have a negotiated end
Speaker 1: as soon as possible. I had said in February of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two when the war started that eventually this
Speaker 1: will get to a trillion dollar price tag, and then
Speaker 1: the American people will really pay attention to it. I
Speaker 1: think that you're going to see. I think that you're
Speaker 1: going to see that we'll spend another one hundred billion
Speaker 1: next year and that will bring the total to what
Speaker 1: is a two hundred and three hundred billion, and it
Speaker 1: starts to add up after a while. And I think
Speaker 1: people will also question a little bit more old openly
Speaker 1: than they have, including on among a lot of Republicans,
Speaker 1: what are we achieving here? And what is actually a
Speaker 1: better question is what is achievable? As in what is
Speaker 1: an acceptable outcome? So that's my sense of that I
Speaker 1: will put the border in a national security realm just
Speaker 1: because it does affect our national security very much. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of times people think of it more
Speaker 1: in a domestic policy context. I believe that they will
Speaker 1: start to slowly bring down some of the illegal entry
Speaker 1: numbers and start to slowly bring up some of the
Speaker 1: deportation numbers, just so that the Biden Democrats can claim
Speaker 1: that they care a little bit about the border, I
Speaker 1: mean in the most the most meager way, but that
Speaker 1: they have some interest in a secure border, because otherwise
Speaker 1: it's a major, major weak spot for them, and they
Speaker 1: know that because the American people are not with them
Speaker 1: on the border. We've already got seven million illegals that
Speaker 1: have come into the country in three years. I think
Speaker 1: you're going to see that number increase substantially. Yeah, so,
Speaker 1: I mean, I know it will increase substantially. Probably you'll
Speaker 1: be at eight million. Here's a prediction for you, eight
Speaker 1: million illegals by next November. That will be the official number,
Speaker 1: eight million illegals by next November. And the fact that
Speaker 1: I can say that with some degree of confidence just
Speaker 1: gives you a sense, I think, of how completely out
Speaker 1: of control all this stuff is. It's just wild. And
Speaker 1: then on Israel and Hamas, I said, again, not an
Speaker 1: exciting you know, national security everyone click on this link.
Speaker 1: Kind of a prediction. But I think that Israel will
Speaker 1: continue into the new year. It's war against Hamas. It'll
Speaker 1: create a demilitarized zone of sorts in northern Gaza, and
Speaker 1: there will not be some massive expansion of the conflict.
Speaker 1: Hesbola might make some more noise up in the north,
Speaker 1: but I don't see Iran getting particularly involved beyond what
Speaker 1: it already does. I don't think they're going to try
Speaker 1: to shut down the straits of Horn Mouz and choke
Speaker 1: off global oil supplies. That stuff all makes for interesting analysis.
Speaker 1: I don't see it happening. And then we get to
Speaker 1: China Taiwan. Here's what I would say about China Taiwan
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. I don't think it is likely
Speaker 1: that China will take Taiwan or try to take Taiwan.
Speaker 1: But if I were in charge in China, I would
Speaker 1: think it's a very good time to try. So I
Speaker 1: can't tell you it's a probability, but I can tell
Speaker 1: you that if I were Hijian ping with old man
Speaker 1: Biden doddering around and all the focus on Trump trials,
Speaker 1: and all the rest of it, and the getting bogged
Speaker 1: down Already, the West is bogged down, the Rushi of
Speaker 1: Ukraine war, the Middle East feels a little destabilized. I
Speaker 1: think that if I'm xijian Ping, it's a good year
Speaker 1: to go for it. But that's this is what we
Speaker 1: would call black Swan analysis or fat tail analysis. Low probability,
Speaker 1: high impact, but the probability is not. You know, i'd
Speaker 1: give a US I'm sorry, a US invasion with Taiwan,
Speaker 1: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next year. I
Speaker 1: think it's ten percent, which sounds very low until you
Speaker 1: think about what a massive uh earth earth shaking change
Speaker 1: to the international order that could be. So there you go.
Speaker 1: That's the national security predictions that I have for you.
Speaker 1: I'm not expecting a lot of big change. I do
Speaker 1: think we're gonna get hit. I mean, I hate even
Speaker 1: saying this out loud, and it's like Christmas time people
Speaker 1: listening to this. I think we're gonna get hit with
Speaker 1: a not a nine to eleven scale terror attack next year,
Speaker 1: but we're gonna get hit, and we're gonna get hit hard.
Speaker 1: Just because I think that the Jihattists are it's just
Speaker 1: they're plotting their scheming and they're going to hit us
Speaker 1: with something and on on a more major scale. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, the kind of attack where it's scores of
Speaker 1: people who are who are killed. I hope that that's
Speaker 1: absolutely wrong, and I hope that, you know, I can
Speaker 1: look back on this and think that I was overly
Speaker 1: but when you overly scared, but when you look at
Speaker 1: the wide open border and you look at the rage
Speaker 1: that the g hotties have all across the Middle East
Speaker 1: now because of our support for Israel specifically, they're there,
Speaker 1: it's too quiet. You know, it's a little too quiet
Speaker 1: right now. It's kind of the way I view it.
Speaker 1: I think that they're going to try something next year
Speaker 1: and that could have a major impact on the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four election, quite honestly. All right, we'll get to
Speaker 1: the realm of economy next. The first up, you know,
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Speaker 1: the economy, I'm of two minds about this, but I'll
Speaker 1: tell you what my twenty twenty four prediction is. I
Speaker 1: think that, unfortunately, the economy is going to be in
Speaker 1: a recovery, or rather in an upswing. It's not good
Speaker 1: right now. But you're going to see inflation coming down
Speaker 1: a little bit. You're going to see coming down. You're
Speaker 1: going to see prices maybe still high, but stable, not
Speaker 1: increasing rapidly. And it's all because democracy is a snapshot.
Speaker 1: Voting is a snapshot. It's how do people feel at
Speaker 1: that time, in that period. And Democrats will do everything
Speaker 1: they can to manipulate perceptions of the economy with all
Speaker 1: the tools that their disposed on. They'll tell me the
Speaker 1: FED is independent, it's nonsense. They'll do everything they can
Speaker 1: to manipulate every tool or every perception they can within
Speaker 1: the economy to make people think that it's actually getting better.
Speaker 1: So next year, I think that you'll see Biden's economy,
Speaker 1: which I would give a C minus. I think they're
Speaker 1: going to get it into B minus territory. And then
Speaker 1: they'll say, but see it's moving in the right direction.
Speaker 1: See look at wages, look at prices, look at inflation,
Speaker 1: look at the interest rates you're paying for money, homes,
Speaker 1: credit cards, everything else. It's going in the right direction. Therefore,
Speaker 1: there's a more positive feeling about it. And they're going
Speaker 1: to spend money, They're going to give money out to people.
Speaker 1: They're going to do whatever they have to do to
Speaker 1: buy off the votes they need to buy in order
Speaker 1: to get what they need to get. It's going to
Speaker 1: be ruthless, but this is they understand the machinery. They
Speaker 1: understand how to get what they want, and that's what
Speaker 1: they're going to do. So twenty twenty four, you heard
Speaker 1: me say it, the economy will be improving, but it
Speaker 1: will be a facade over the long run. Folks. Our
Speaker 1: debt is a massive problem. It's a massive problem. You're
Speaker 1: going to start seeing more and more how the interest
Speaker 1: we're paying on the debt is crowding out other investment
Speaker 1: and other spending that we have. I don't like using
Speaker 1: it term government investment spending spending your money, but there
Speaker 1: are some things we do want government spending money on,
Speaker 1: and that's going to get crowded out by thirty three
Speaker 1: trillion dollars in counting. I mean, we're going to be
Speaker 1: basically at what thirty five trillion by the time time
Speaker 1: people are going to be voting. The problem with the
Speaker 1: debt crisis is when everyone has to agree that it's
Speaker 1: a crisis, it's too late. When the music stops and
Speaker 1: there are nowhere near enough chairs. Well, we all know
Speaker 1: what happens. People, you know, are out of the game,
Speaker 1: and that is what the debt will be like, although
Speaker 1: it will be like a thermonuclear bomb going off in
Speaker 1: the middle of our economy, so to speak, and at
Speaker 1: that point it's too late. Do we have the political
Speaker 1: will to deal with this before then? No? No, I'm
Speaker 1: not going to sit here and pretend. Look at we
Speaker 1: had the Tea Party at tenrillion dollars roughly of debt
Speaker 1: and it didn't change. And that was a real movement,
Speaker 1: a grassroots movement, a whole new class, a whole new
Speaker 1: crop of members of Congress in office. To deal with
Speaker 1: the debt hasn't happened. Everybody wants to I know, it's
Speaker 1: Christmas time. Everybody wants to believe there's a Santa Claus.
Speaker 1: Nobody wants to be the Grinch. And that's why the
Speaker 1: debt just keeps going up and up and up, and
Speaker 1: we all pretend we want to deal with it until
Speaker 1: someone says, hey, you're going to raise the retirement age,
Speaker 1: You're going to raise the age for Social Security, not
Speaker 1: going to vote for you. That's true about Republicans as
Speaker 1: well as Democrats. So I can't pretend we're not going
Speaker 1: to deal with this until it's a crisis. It's just
Speaker 1: a question to when. It's a question of when the
Speaker 1: debt bomb goes off. I know that's sorry, that's not
Speaker 1: exactly a feel good critic. But next year it'll be fine.
Speaker 1: It's I don't think it's going to happen next year,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna make the economy seem better than it is. Look,
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Speaker 1: UH political predictions, and these are pretty straightforward. Donald Trump
Speaker 1: is going to win the Republican primary. I think that's obvious.
Speaker 1: A lot of you're listening to this. I know that
Speaker 1: just sent I am not in the tank for anybody.
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to look at what is happening here
Speaker 1: and predict and analyze as honestly as I can. Donald
Speaker 1: Trump's going to win the Republican primary. Ron DeSantis is
Speaker 1: a great governor. I have no I have nothing bad
Speaker 1: to say about Governor Santis in his role as a
Speaker 1: governor and as a Republican and as a conservative. I
Speaker 1: think he's done great campaign hasn't been enough to beat Trump.
Speaker 1: That's just where it is, right. I mean, I'm not
Speaker 1: anti DeSantis, as you all know. I think DeSantis is fantastic.
Speaker 1: I think he'd be a great president. I think he
Speaker 1: still might be a great president of the future. And
Speaker 1: I think that we should reward excellent governance by Republicans
Speaker 1: with higher office. Really the only higher office when the
Speaker 1: governor of Florida is you know, the president. So I
Speaker 1: think I think that's where we're all heading. And then
Speaker 1: the big question I'm was gonna ask, Well, as you know,
Speaker 1: I've said it will be Joe Biden, this is my prediction,
Speaker 1: I've stated. But it will be Joe Biden or Kamala Harris,
Speaker 1: the Biden Harris ticket. But there's no third option that's
Speaker 1: going to scoop in and become the Democrat nominee. That
Speaker 1: is not going to happen. And I've been very stalwart
Speaker 1: on this. I've had you know, friends of mine and
Speaker 1: big names in the business and everything else telling me
Speaker 1: that I'm crazy. But I've been right so far. I've
Speaker 1: been right so far. And then so it's going to
Speaker 1: be Biden Biden Harris. And then you ask me who
Speaker 1: wins the twenty twenty four election. I think Donald Trump's
Speaker 1: gonna win the twenty twenty four election. I think he's
Speaker 1: going to be president again. That is where I see
Speaker 1: this going. So consider this the time capsule, consider this
Speaker 1: the and how do we do in the House? And
Speaker 1: I think we take the Senate. I'm actually more worried
Speaker 1: about the House. You're asking me, I'm not just gonna say,
Speaker 1: you know, oh, we're gonna think I think we get
Speaker 1: like a fifty one seat majority in the Senate, and
Speaker 1: I think we lose the House. Yeah, So I don't
Speaker 1: think we have totally unified government. I know, I know,
Speaker 1: but that is my prediction. And it's a year out,
Speaker 1: you know, speaking of governance, and what's happened When President
Speaker 1: Biden botched the After Game withdrawal in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: sent a message to the world we were weak and
Speaker 1: wouldn't protect our allies. Then six months later Russia invaded Ukraine.
Speaker 1: But you heard what I was just talking about national
Speaker 1: security challenges. But then what the debt? The debt crisis,
Speaker 1: it's coming. And former Wall Street insider Tika Tawari. We've
Speaker 1: talked about Tika from time to time. He thinks our
Speaker 1: biggest risk and I agree with this. Our biggest systemic
Speaker 1: risk as a country is not war breaking out somewhere.
Speaker 1: It is potentially the collapse of the dollar because of
Speaker 1: this debt crisis. That's why mister Tuari has released an
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Speaker 1: for by Palm Beach Research Group. Hey guys, thank you
Speaker 1: so much for listening to Buck brief. If you haven't,
Speaker 1: please subscribe. We've got a YouTube channel YouTube dot com
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Speaker 1: And also on Rumble. If you're a Rumble subscriber, you
Speaker 1: can check me out there. It's kind of fun because
Speaker 1: you can see the video. You can see if i'm
Speaker 1: having a bad hair day, or if I need to shave,
Speaker 1: which currently I'm having both bad hair, bad hair day,
Speaker 1: I need to shave. Just kidding. Occasionally I'll show you
Speaker 1: the puppy Ginger, so you'll get to see Ginger on
Speaker 1: this video. I am always honored that any of you
Speaker 1: give me your time, and so many of you give
Speaker 1: me your time, and so thank you so much for that.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty three was a great year. We're gonna have
Speaker 1: a really informative fun time together in twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: here on the show, and I will talk to you
Speaker 1: in the new year. Shields High