WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2025 Divisional Weekend NFL Guessing Lines Show 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:07.080 Check it down, man, and I'm just told the story. 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:10.440 Now he's done. Swando's idiots will believe in analytics. This 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:13.360 is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:15.480 Good Monday morning to you. 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:17.880 It is a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network, 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:19.560 Visa dot Com game plus. 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:22.640 I heard radio YouTube TV. However you take it. 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.160 It is in four days away from Serious XM Channel 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:29.000 one fifty eight. It's the numbers game, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:32.360 producer number nine, so much more than a producer alongside, 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:34.560 just pounding on his keyboard. 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:37.080 Just wrapping up some of those producer things. Gil right 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.600 to the buzzer. I told Savannah, let's push him back fifteen. 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:42.360 Everybody's right, everybody as you were for fifteen. 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:44.479 Minutes, long shots promos for fifteen minutes. 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:45.839 Oh that'll be fun. 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:47.839 I sunk to this weekend, by the way on that. 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.320 But Wes Reynolds one hundred and five to one on 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:51.840 Nick Taylor getting home. 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:55.400 Wow, yeah, very nice, very nice. That went nice way 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:57.000 to start off the golf Calendal. 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.600 Yes, right, that's all I was thinking about a beautiful. 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.920 Thing on the show today, guessing lines and quotes because 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:04.399 of course, I'll tell you what I guess and what 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.000 the line is. I am aware of what they are 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:09.680 at this point. And then a little later on Dustin Sweelson. 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:10.920 Will join us. You know who he is, Kelly. 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:13.119 He's the co host of Vson Live on Mad Dog 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.240 Sports Radio with Patrick maher right, So Dustin will be 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:17.959 along give his thoughts on the Division Round and the 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:21.959 National Football League playoffs. And then Mike Sammich Samo bombing 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:23.880 co host of Ready Set Bet, he will join us 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:26.240 to give these same thoughts as well, also perhaps on 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:28.600 the college football title game as well. Maybe he's got 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:31.840 some hockey you never know, you never know, bomb, you 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:34.200 never know what the Samo bomb? What did you do 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.320 this weekend? How about them Red Skins? Oh? Sorry, how 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:38.080 about them Skins? 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:38.759 Huh? 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:41.440 First time in nineteen years. I'm so pumped. 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:42.800 I was so wired. 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:45.480 And then I stayed up and watched tennis matches that 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:48.000 I was betting on you last night. So I'm on 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:49.000 listen to that. 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:53.880 Turn that up a little, guys. Some somebody on the 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:57.000 Sunday night game is so great and you're just jacked up. Afterwards, 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:58.320 You're like, like, we have to. 0:01:58.240 --> 0:01:58.840 Get up early. 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:01.320 Yeah, breaking Dowd. I couldn't there are so many those 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:02.720 nights were like, how am I supposed to go to bed? 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:04.880 A great way to start the Australian Open hope everybody's 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.600 following that At visa dot Com slash picks for subscribers 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:09.680 A four and two start with a lot of dogs 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:12.000 in there. So it's up three units after the first 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.960 night or two of this because they had delayed matches 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.440 the first night. But back to football four second. I 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.800 think we end up with the I think we'll end 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.120 up with the what it ends up being corroborated by 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.440 the power rankings. The eight best teams were the only 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.000 exception being Houston in and the loser of tonight's came out. 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.720 I really do. I think that's what it ends. I 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:34.519 think our power rankings are the same. 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.040 Exactly where I had Chargers Texans. But I mean if 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.400 I had Chargers ahead of them last week, it was 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:42.639 the first week because Texans I was higher on most 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:43.040 of the year. 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.840 Well, let's start with these chronologically for the division round. 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:47.760 Do we do the guessing lines intro for this? Yeah, 0:02:47.840 --> 0:03:03.520 let's do guessing lines division round style. We got all right. 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:10.080 Saturday one thirty Pacific time for thirty Eastern double checking 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.480 and have this right, Texans at Chiefs, Texans at Chiefs. 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.000 Can we just go back to last week and what 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.200 I had to say about the Texans and Chargers. I 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:19.840 think that might be the way to go. Yeah, yeah, 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:21.680 we could probably do that as part of our We sure, 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:27.040 here's what we said. Nope, okay, guess no, we'll get 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:30.080 back to all right. Oh, anyway, what I said last 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:34.600 week was that I just believe that the Chargers for 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:36.800 and I get I always give Matt Humans a shout 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:38.840 out here, right because he had the Chargers over for 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:43.440 the season, and he correctly sort of you know, isolated 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:45.920 the fact that their record was super easy, the Chargers, 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.040 and they ended up over their season win total. What 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.400 I was saying going into this game last this, you know, 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:54.600 this past weekend between the Texans and the Chargers, was 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.840 the strength of victory, right, the Chargers strength of victory 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.760 now strength of schedule. Strength of victory the lowest of 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:03.480 all the fourteen playoff teams. The week is three forty 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:08.280 eight aggregate win percentage of their opponents that they beat. Yes, 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:09.680 there were a couple two, there were a couple of 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:12.040 Denver wins in there. That's what brought it up to 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.520 three forty eight. So I was all over Houston, Houston 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.840 gets it done, and I wondered aloud, you know what 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:20.680 would how would the Chargers do if they fell behind? 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.400 And we have our answer. This game started out it 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:26.520 was three to nothing Chargers. Houston first played Stroud to 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:29.520 metch He stripped by Gilman, recovered by James, and the 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:32.560 Chargers were set up at the Houston thirty three and 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:35.080 it looked like, okay, this could be a Chargers runout. 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:38.120 But after a sack by both will Anderson and Murray 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:39.960 Edwards they got a half sack each and a drop 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:43.160 by Disley, they had to settle for another Dickerfield goal. 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:46.000 Six to nothing Chargers was six thirty five left in 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.520 the first quarter. That was a poortent of things to come, 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:50.919 by the way Houston three and out. Right after that, 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.480 Stroud was nearly picked. Then there was a fair catch 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:58.240 interference by Chris Chris Boyd. Chargers get it back. They 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:00.880 had a J. K. Scott punch that was blocked by 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.599 D'Angelo Ross, but even that took a massive Chargers bounce. 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.040 So like everything was going the Chargers way. But yet 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:07.680 you looked up at the scoreboard, it was still six 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:08.159 to nothing. 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:09.240 That's it. 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:12.440 Next time Houston got the ball, not that, not this time, 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.440 but the next time after this, So two more drives 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.159 Houston third and seven at their own fifteen. This is 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:20.840 where the Stroud did, by the way, terrible pass picked 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.360 by Dean Leonard. Chargers then set up at the Houston 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:28.440 forty first play Herbert picked downfield by Kamari Lassiter. So 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:31.800 that pick didn't turn into anything either, because Herbert immediately 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:35.080 returned the favor. Next time Chargers had the ball, they 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.240 punted it to the Houston won. This is where the 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:39.560 game changed six to nothing. 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:40.040 Chargers. 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:44.560 After all this Houston has done nothing. Third and sixteen, 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.240 owns seventeen. You know what happens here, Snap gets by Stroud, 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:51.000 He's fleshed out to the right. He throws it up 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:53.280 over the middle Xavier Hutchinson wide open for a thirty 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:56.120 four yard gain. Two plays later to Collins for thirty seven. 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:59.200 Three plays later to Collins from thirteen out seven to six. 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:01.920 Houston with under a minute left in the first half, 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:05.920 on a ten play, ninety nine yard five minutes seventeen 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:08.760 second drive that was made possible by that third and 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:13.000 sixteen conversion where Stroud collected the ball after it was 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.080 loose and managed to find Hutchinson over the middle. So 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.760 ten to six by the way at the half, as 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.760 the Chargers couldn't do anything with it. At the end 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:25.320 of the end of the second quarter. Then second time, 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:27.920 or excuse me, the first time that the Texans get 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:30.400 the ball in the second half, Stroud to Collins for 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:34.000 forty one. Next play, Mixing stripped. So still the Chargers 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:36.320 only down ten to six at this point. They've got 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.640 all these opportunities right. Mixing was stripped by Tony Jefferson 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:41.560 on a play that looked like a designed half back option. 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:44.359 He recovers it. That's the first mix and fumble in 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.440 one thousand, eighty two touches. Then the Chargers fourth and 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.240 two at the Houston thirty four incomplete to Quenton Johnston, 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:53.360 whose route wasn't even to the sticks. Then Houston first 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:55.560 and fifteen at the Chargers twenty four, Stroud seemingly picked 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:59.159 by James of the end zone Nixon unnecessary a roughness 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:03.560 on the return turn later determined James didn't even survive 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:06.039 the ground, but the penalty was enforced that's a weird 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:07.039 little NFL rule. 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:10.080 Cork first, way too quick, on that way. 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:11.960 Too quick, and then you get the result. Oh, by 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.000 the way, while we were gone, this is what happens. 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.000 When you see the replay. We never saw it from 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:18.520 that angle. When you see the replay, you're like, oh, okay, yeah, sure. 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.800 Chargers still then had a you know, after a hole 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:23.680 to gain. It was second and forty for the Texans 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:25.920 that the Chargers forty nine. They settled for a Fairbard figel. 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:28.840 It's still thirteen to six Houston, four to forty eight 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:30.320 left in the third quarter. I mean, this is a 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:34.320 strange football game. At this point, Chargers first play on 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:36.240 their non they're ensuing drive, but the one after that 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:36.960 first intend. 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.960 They're own twenty four. Herbert overthrows McConkey, picked by Eric Murray, 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.080 thirty eight yards of the house, twenty to six Houston, 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.200 and the route from this point was on. Herbert at 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:47.800 this point in the game had three picks, excuse me, 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.680 three picks for the season five hundred and four regular 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:53.520 season passing attempts at this point in the game, two 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.800 out of twenty four attempts two picks, twenty four attempts 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.440 first intend the Houston thirty nine. Then Herbert picked again 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:02.200 off a deflect by Stingley that wasn't his fault that one. 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.040 Stingley returns at fifty four yards. Then Houston set up 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:06.880 at the Chargers twelve. They settle for a fair baron 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.800 field goal twenty three to six. Chargers next time they 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.120 got the ball. Now it's by the way, three picks 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:14.920 in twenty seven attempts versus three and five oh four 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:18.200 in the regular season, sacked by Anderson on first, sacked 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.440 by Edwards on second, then third, and twenty six at 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:21.640 their own fourteen. 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:22.640 Eighty six to mcconkeie. 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.120 Have no idea what Kayln Bullock was doing on his 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.960 angle there, So one broken tackle and he's gone twenty 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:28.880 three to twelve. 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:30.520 But the Chargers could not have. 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.520 A moment of good feelings because then the extra point 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:36.600 was blocked and Cameron Dicker act. Cameron Dicker acted like 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:39.720 it was a pass and batted it down. Dangelo Ross 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:41.319 returned that to the house off the bounds for two. 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:43.520 So instead of a seven point sequence for the Chargers 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:46.920 only plus four twenty five to twelve, and then Houston 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:49.160 fourth in inches at the Chargers thirty eighth Stroud for two, 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:51.320 and then later fourth and one at the seventeen, mixing 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:54.880 into the end zone thirty two to twelve. Texans blow 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:58.520 out the Chargers. And yet I had said, Kansas City 0:08:58.600 --> 0:08:59.800 minus ten over Houston. 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:03.040 Yeah, you're you're a little high, Houston, get a little 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:03.400 love here. 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:07.280 We are at eight eight, anywhere between seven and a 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:08.800 half and eight and a half in the market, right, 0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:13.360 Mildly surprised by that. Mildly surprised, I am, I am too. 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:17.400 Get to my bets later that I've made. But teaser 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:21.240 leg of the year question mark. I let me put 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:21.640 it this way. 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:23.520 I bet you we see more teasers tied into the 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:26.280 Chiefs this week that we've seen in a long time. 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:29.840 When Baltimore got down, when Baltimore against Pittsburgh, when that 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:32.240 line sort of crashed, not crashed, but went down a 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:33.440 little bit before game. 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:34.559 Time, crazy line movement. 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:38.760 I immediately went into Baltimore Buffalo Rams teaser mode like 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:41.920 teas away, as you should have because because there wasn't 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:44.800 available all week. But anyway, back to this game for 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.760 a second, I just I just thought this is such 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:49.960 a great lesson because we'll talk about the Steelers too, 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:54.560 but the Chargers really benefited from their schedule. They ended 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:55.679 up beating nobody. 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:56.000 Right. 0:09:57.120 --> 0:09:59.920 The Broncos win was wins. We're the ones that actually 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.040 lifted their strength of victory. That doesn't mean it was 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.120 a bad season. I just think people got really mesmerized 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.200 by the the Horrball narrative. It's easy, it's easy to 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:10.360 toggle to, oh my god, Jim Harball, Look he's doing 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.640 it again. And I think with the Steelers, by the way, 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:15.280 which we'll get to, we lost the bets on the 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:19.640 Steelers win total under but was it the right side 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.320 in the end? Do you feel like do you feel 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:23.719 like we weren't that wrong in the end? 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:24.360 Oh? 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.480 Yes, yes, totally right. Okay, this is gonna be hard 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:31.520 to say without taking anything away from what the Chargers, 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:35.960 Broncos and Steelers all accomplished during the regular season. These 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.679 were the least surprising smackdowns ever this weekend. 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:39.439 Yeah, I agree. 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:40.000 CJ. 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.800 Stroud, by the way, becomes the sixth quarterback to win 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:47.080 a playoff game his first two seasons. Big Ben, Flacco, Sanchez, Wilson, 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:51.920 and Purdy the other five Sanchiz got in there, and 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:54.080 then I guess we have to have the Herbert conversation 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:55.920 before we move on, because again we'll get to the 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:56.800 Chiefs and the Texans. 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:58.680 Let's do it, Gil, but let's do it. 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.040 You know, look at the beginning of the year, my 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:04.360 comment was, we ranked the quarterbacks and I had justin 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:07.120 Herbert as like the seventh or eighth best quarterback in 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.680 the NFL, and I said, he's one year away from 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.680 taking incoming, which is I get it. You're good enough 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.719 to take your team to these clutch situations at the 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.560 end of the game, but by and large you end 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:19.920 up sucking at the end of games on final drives. 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:23.319 It happens time and time again. This was a year 0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:25.400 where that was kind of extinguished a little bit because 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:28.319 he's great on the one hand, but I'm just saying 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.880 the people who make him out to the people who 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:34.760 canonize him, I just think they need to ratchet it 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:35.280 back a little. 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:39.040 He's never winning an AFC championship. He's never winning, and 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.560 he's a good quarterback. He's a top ten quarterback in 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:43.920 the league. The AFC is too tough, and he is 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.000 still overrated from where he's at in this league. 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:50.600 Four picks in this one game, three for the entire season. 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.520 We'll come back. Guessing lines continues. Numbers game based the 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:54.800 Sports Betting Network. 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.320 Numbers Game on v SI, the Sports Vetting Network. 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.000 We're getting ready for Big Game fifty nine with a 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.240 big deal to match. Save fifty nine dollars off a 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:12.480 vcent Pro annual subscription when you start up using promo 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:16.000 code ag become a vcent Pro annual subscriber. Bets Smarter 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:18.160 all year long with full access to our daily bess bets, 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:20.800 exclusive betting splits for DraftKings in circa twenty four to 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.000 seven video access to tune in anywhere on the vson 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.400 Watch applus all our betting guides at expert picks for 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.360 the Super Bowl and upcoming March Madness. Don't miss out 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.120 on this big game deal. Visit Vison dot com slash subscribe, 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:31.880 use promo. 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:35.079 Code A n j A NG is an a numbers game. 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.199 To say, fifty nine dollars off a vcent Pro annual 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:41.320 subscription today. That's VSI n dot com slash subscribe. By 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:42.960 the way, I don't know if I lingered long enough 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.640 on that spread guess, but I had a Kansas City 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:47.719 by ten. You said it's Kansas City by how much? 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:47.840 Eight? 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:48.160 And a half. 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:51.360 You sent Texan's taking money early man seven and a 0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:53.640 half to eight and a half. I am surprised. 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:58.200 I mean, give a Texans credit. The defense look great, yeah, defense, right, 0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:01.600 but I don't I don't think they'll they can come 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.880 into Kansas City and have a real shot at winning. 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:06.760 And I think Kansas I think there's a scenario where 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:07.840 Kansas City blows them out. 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.839 Yeah, I mean, I think there is the look that 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.640 team getting getting rested. We've seen how good Kansas City's 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.280 defense has been all year. I don't know what to 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.079 say about the Kansas City offense right now. Gil I 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.719 think it's it's definitely going to be as good as 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:27.000 we've seen it all season. But there is a chance 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:30.120 that they take some major leaps forward here in the playoffs. 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.040 It wouldn't surprise me at all with the pieces that 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.200 they've added before the season, during the season, and all 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.400 of these guys are getting healthy right right at the 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:37.840 right time. 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.160 And what do you know, Houston gets the early window 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.760 on Saturday. Still, I know it's incredible every time their birthright. 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:48.679 I think I know what's next next up Saturday night, 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:54.160 Commanders at Lions, Oh Washington on short rest against the 0:13:54.360 --> 0:14:00.520 buy enjoyed Detroit Lions, so even even with the bye, 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.600 they'll get extra advantage here the Lions. Well, let me 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:05.640 just say this too before we even get into it, 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.320 nineteen years since Washington has won a playoff game. 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:14.280 George W. Bush was president. Yah, nineteen years. 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.560 I think I was your age, Kelly when this happened. 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.280 That game is so long ago that Sean Taylor spat 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.400 on Michael Pittman Senor that's how old that game is. 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:27.720 Oh man, So. 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:29.880 It's been that long. Gibbs two point Oh. By the way, 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.720 Washington gets it done against Tampa Bay? What did I 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.040 say all year too? Because people are obviously, when when 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:37.880 Washington gets beat by Detroit next week. 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:39.880 People are gonna be like, oh, you suck. Like what 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:41.160 I say all year? All year? 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.080 I said, this is a playoff team. At the very most, 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:47.400 they can win one playoff game. It's all gravy from here. 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.160 We'll get to that momentarily. Last night, case you missed it, 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:53.160 what a ball game. Let me just start from the beginning, 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.160 because there's gonna be some things lost in this game. 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:56.360 Because I'm hearing a lot. 0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:00.840 Of oh, Tampa Bay, Washington's lucky? Are they let's get 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:05.080 into it. Tampa Bay hits a fifty yard field goal 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.200 to start things, but Washington goes off side, so instead 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:12.160 of fourth and seven, McLaughlin makes the fifty yarder. It 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:15.080 would have been fourth and two and Todd Bowles and 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.080 the Buccaneers decline the penalty. They say, we'll keep the 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:22.480 field goal. Yeah, that's the first mistake, right there, Boys 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.200 and girls. Three to nothing, Tampa Bay eleven thirty five 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:27.200 left the first quarter. So if you're a Washington backer 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:30.560 or a Washington fan, you're like cooh Washington third and six, 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:33.160 Jaden to the incomparable Terry McLaurin for thirty five. 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:33.880 What a catch. 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:38.040 Eventually fourth and two at the Tampa Bay twenty incomplete 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:41.160 at the feet of Eckler. Next time, Washington gets the 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:42.800 ball to Ertz for nine on third down, then a 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.640 McLaurin for eighteen. Eventually fourth and one at the Tampa 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.960 Bay twenty three. This time Eckler barely gets the one 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:53.480 as part of a seventeen play ninety two yard nine 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.200 midd and eight second drive for the DC's Skins. Jaden 0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:00.200 to Diami from ten out seven to three, Washington nine 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.320 to twenty six left in the second quarter. You can't 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:04.680 get the kid off the field. What do we say 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.120 earlier in the season when they were beating Cincinnati. If 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.320 you don't punt and you don't throw interceptions or fumble, 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.200 you're kind of tough to beat. Seven to three Washington, 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:16.280 by the way, ten to three after Gonzalez makes a 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:19.120 fifty two yarder. Ten to three, Washington, one fifty two 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.520 left in the second quarter. Now, Washington, at this point, 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:23.680 you have to understand, this was at the point in 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:25.880 the game where you're like, okay, Washington gets the ball 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:28.280 first in the second half, up a touchdown right here. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.160 If you stop Tampa Bay. It's kind of like a 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.760 pseudo double dip situation, Washington. There's a scenario here Washington 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.680 kind of blows them out. Doesn't happen, though, because Baker 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:39.280 Mayfield does one of his great third down runs where 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:43.440 he's just knocking into people and uh he gets a 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:47.600 first down on a big third down conversion. The Bucks 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:50.120 have two timeouts in pocket. By the way, did you 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:53.680 notice this? Bulls lets thirteen seconds run off the clock 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.600 before you're using one, So Tampa Bay could have gone 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.200 differently for them, but they end up with the Washington 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.280 twelve was seventeen seconds left. They do get a PI 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.240 on Latimore in the end zone, by the way, after 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:05.439 Evans just spiked him to the ground. They're like, oh, 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.960 that's on you, Latimore. We caught the second one. Mayfield 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:10.960 to Evans from one out. It's ten to ten at 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.600 the half, and if you're Washington, you're like, oh, that's 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.080 kind of deflating, but at least you know we get 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:18.639 the ball first here in the second half. So Washington 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:22.000 gets the first and goal with the three to begin 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.320 the third quarter. Again, it's like, all right, good, gonna 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.720 go up a touchdown, but nope, have to settle for 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:30.120 Gonzales twenty two yard field Well thirteen to ten, Washington 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:32.639 ten thirty eleven. Third quarter, and this is where it 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:34.680 starts to go Tampa Bay's way, because you're like, okay, 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:38.040 Washington left points on the board there. They gave up 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:39.879 that third down play to Mayfield. This could have been 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:42.840 a lot different at this point. Instead, Tampa Bay goes 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:45.399 ten plays seventy two yards, five poin fifty nine, Mayfield 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.520 to Irving from four out, and Tampa Bay takes the 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:51.080 lead seventeen thirteen with four thirty one left in the 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.159 third quarter. By the way, Miketeririco is way too excited 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:54.959 at this point. I was a little upset with him. 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.119 Washington then fourth and five at the Tampa Bay, thirty 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:01.679 seven to Ertz for fourteen. Two plays later, Pi in 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.600 the end zone on Zion McCollum, Washington first and gold, 0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:07.959 the one can't get it in four plays After that 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:11.480 fourth and golf of three incomplete intended for Ertz as LaMonte, 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:13.560 David just hugs him. Nothing called. 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:16.480 That was incredible. I mean, for all the people who 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:17.760 are like, oh, yeah, Washington got lucky. 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:19.720