WEBVTT - Surveillance: Belarus Strikes With Bolton 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:27.320 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. We 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.200 are thrilled to bring back John Bolton. He appeared with 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:33.600 It's just a few weeks ago with his wonderful book 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.200 The Room Where It Happened. It is a controversial book. 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.520 I guess you know. I sold twelve copies, Abassador Bolton, 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:42.159 but I think you did out of the box seven 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:47.920 eighty thousand copies of your book. Did that statistics surprise you? Yeah, 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:50.680 I thank you very much. I was surprised at it. 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:53.280 But but I think you know, this is a year 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:56.440 when trumps a lot is needs book sold even more. 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.200 Bob Woodward has a book coming out in September, and 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.960 there have been plenty war besides, so there's there's obviously 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.240 a big demand. But it was an enormous number. I 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.959 was very very happy with it, that's for sure. In 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.000 your book, I want to get to Belarus in a moment, 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:11.920 which is the topic of the hand. But there is 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:13.920 and the reason you came on with us today the 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.680 legacy of Brent Scolcroft. I had a chance to interview 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:21.319 him a few times. What a gentleman, what grace your 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:26.720 study of that great moment where Baker and Skocroft assisted 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:31.000 President Bush and getting to the end of the Cold War. 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:37.039 What did the late General Skulcroft accomplished? Well, he was 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.360 an amazing figure. And I knew him during the Bush 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:43.200 forty one administration. I didn't didn't know him during the 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:47.200 Nixon and uh and Ford administrations. But but he was 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:53.000 really a dominant figure in policy, uh you know, beginning 0:01:53.040 --> 0:02:00.560 with Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in and liberation of Kuwait, 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:04.520 the breakup of Yugoslavia, the breakup of the Soviet Union, 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:06.680 the collapse of the Warsaw Pack, the end of the 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.040 Cold War. I mean, it was it was busy back 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:11.919 in those days. And uh, you know, he was a 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:16.160 very level headed guy. And I think obviously somebody that 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:19.399 George H. W. Bush knew very well, which is why 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:23.280 he made him National Security Advisor. Are you confident that 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.680 either party can get back to the grace of Brent 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:32.000 Scocroft after a given length of a Trump era. Well, 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.440 I think it's gets harder and harder to do, which 0:02:34.480 --> 0:02:36.640 is one reason why, you know, for the first time 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:38.920 in my adult political life, I'm not going to vote 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.320 for the Republican nominee for president. I think we can 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.880 correct what's happened after one Trump term. I'm very worried 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:47.560 that two it might might not be possible to correct. 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:50.920 He's not the only cause of the lack of civility, 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:54.720 although he's made almost every aspect of it wars and uh. 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.840 I just don't even know how how Brent Scocroft would 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.799 react to the way it is today. Does Joe Biden 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:04.840 need to do to make it a one term Trump Well, 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:07.280 I think he. You know, I'm not going to vote 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.040 for Biden either, as I think I think we may 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.600 have discussed before, but I think I think if he 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:16.120 uh in the remaining days of the campaign project projects 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:23.200 even handedness, steadiness, UH, courtesy, a sense of humor, a 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.200 lack of indictedness, you know, being a normal guy, would 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:29.359 would go a long way. I really do think people 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.560 crave that, and I believe that even if many Republicans 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:35.480 with whom I've spoken who will vote for Trump because 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.720 they fear the left wing of the Democratic Party. Uh, 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:41.280 it's they're they're not happy about that either. And I 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:44.240 think many of those people might yet vote for Biden 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:47.120 if he if he simply says, you're my ideas, but 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.480 I'm gonna I'm gonna pursue them in in what we 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:53.360 used to think of as a as a more civil fashion. So, ambassador, 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:55.640 give us just your sense of kind of where the 0:03:55.720 --> 0:04:00.000 whole feeling of internationalism is. It served the United States 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.840 so well post World War Two in terms of defeating, um, 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:07.320 you know, winning the Cold War, but internationalism seems to 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.000 really have taken a back seat in the Trump administration, 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:12.840 whether it's NATO or the Transpacific Partnership or other just 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.240 partnerships around the world. What's your sense of where internationalism 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:19.320 is right now? Well, I think Trump is an anomaly 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:23.200 even within the Republican Party. And one of the reasons 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:27.320 I'm confident the damage he's done can be corrected is 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:30.080 that there is no Trump is um. There is no 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:34.200 Trump doctrine, there is no Trump philosophy, UM. And I 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.760 think that's one of the reasons why why it's so 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:40.080 perilous to have somebody like him in the White House, 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.400 but it also means it's it's easier to to police 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:49.120 bafter there's just one idiosyncratic response after another. I would say, 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.840 in fact that even under Obama there there was a 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:56.440 fair amount of isolationism. I think Obama was was overfocused 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:59.680 on domestic issues, and I think UH in too many 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.880 cases as his idea of foreign policy was to leave 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:06.800 it to the United Nations to engage in multilateral diplomacy 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:08.640 for the sake of it. So I think America has 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:11.320 got to pursue its interest. I think the right way 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.760 to look at it, to summarize it very quickly, is 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.640 in a Reaganesque kind of way of peace through strength. 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.560 Where do you think the biggest security issue is for 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:24.360 the United States right now as we kind of exit well, 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:28.400 I think existentially China is the main threat we face 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:31.520 throughout the twenty first century. I think Russia is also 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:35.200 a strategic problem because of its nuclear capabilities. I think 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:38.919 the immediate problems remain the threat of the proliferation of 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:42.840 nuclear chemical and as we now understand better than ever before, 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:47.279 biological weapons, UH and international terrorism. These are problems we've 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:51.120 had now for twenty years. They've changed their manifestations but 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:53.800 they remain threats to the United States, and I think 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.320 the people ought to understand that as they as they 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.880 look at this presidential race and the race is for Senate. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:02.640 Now is just your US worldwide? John Bolton with us 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.880 the room where it happened to White House Memoir, his book. Uh. 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:08.680 He joined us a few weeks ago, where thrilled he 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.600 could come back and visit in remembrance of Brent Skullcroft. 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:15.320 The script changes, Ambassador, and it changes to Belarus. You 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:17.520 did what you do, which is you showed the flag, 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:22.240 you attended. It makes that horrific Holocaust Memora one of 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:25.320 the most emotional uh that's out there. And then you 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.960 met with the leadership of Belarus. Folks. This is to 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.120 get the map out. You go to Berlin, you go 0:06:31.240 --> 0:06:34.400 east to Warsaw, you bend to the north a little bit, 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.080 and you go across a piece of land on the 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:41.359 road to Moscow. Ambassador Bolton, how important is that piece 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.560 of land of the United States this morning? Well, it's 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.640 extremely important. I went to Belarus. I was the highest 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:50.120 ranking American to go there when I went in August 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.640 of last year, I think in about eight years. And 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:56.599 I did it not because I loved Lukashenko, the president 0:06:56.640 --> 0:07:00.200 and authoritarian figure there, but because I didn't want to 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:05.440 see Belarus reabsorbed by Russia into a into a latter 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:11.360 day Soviet Union. Now we've seen this amazing election process 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.600 there that people are out in the streets. It looks 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:17.080 so much like what happened in Eastern and Central Europe 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:20.400 and the former Soviet Union when the Iron Curtain fell, 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:24.360 uh some years back, and it's I think it's critical, 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:27.200 uh that we do what we can to make sure 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:29.680 the Russians don't intervene. You know, when I when I 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:33.480 went on to Warsaw for the for the anniversary of 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:38.600 the Nazi invasion, the eight anniversary, the polls and the Ukrainians, 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:41.320 and I give them both credit, arranged a four way 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:44.680 meeting of the national security advisers of their two countries, 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:48.560 the US and Belarus. First time that ever happened. That's 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:51.480 how important Belarus is, the Poland in Ukraine. And I 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.160 think therefore to us, well, this is so important is 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:57.160 it's buttressed up as a buffer almost between Russia and 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:00.800 a NATO that expanded to the east to Poland and 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:04.360 And how do we actually project this in the coming days? 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.400 What would you advise Secretary POMPEII or even the President 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:13.040 in discourse, in body language, to make clear to Mr 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:16.680 Putin that this is not some of the sad stories 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.360 that we've seen over the decades. Well, I think, uh, 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:23.800 we've done actually some good things with respect to Poland 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.480 to strengthen our defense cooperation. I think we could do 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.320 more with Ukraine. It's not a NATO member, But when 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:32.400 George W. Bush was president, he tried to make that happen. 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:36.680 The Europeans objected. I think the dilemma right now with 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:41.200 belaruss is I think we want to support the emerging 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.280 view that we see it in the streets. The people 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:46.800 aren't asking for anything extraordinary. They just want to be 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:50.199 able to elect their own president. We ought to encourage that, 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.839 but in a way that makes sure that Lukashenko does 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.080 not continue to ask Putin to step in, especially with 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:00.600 military force. So it's a delicate moment. I think a 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:03.679 strong statement to Putin it can be done in private, 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:05.560 if that's the way to do it. That he needs 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:09.920 to stay out of Belarus is very very important. Ambassador. 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:12.120 That goes to I guess the bigger picture is give 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.599 us your sense of what our position is visa the 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:19.520 Russia here and how perhaps uh our position should evolve, 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:21.440 you know, over the next several years as it relates 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:25.160 to Russia. Well, you know it's uh. What Putin is 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:28.800 doing is playing a wee hand, very very well in 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:32.959 trying to re extend Moscow's influence in the territory of 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:36.479 the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere. 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:41.000 And while we've done a number of things in the 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:44.360 past three and a half years to push back on that, 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:47.760 we have not done nearly enough, not not the least 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:51.120 of which is the continuing concern about Russian interference in 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.640 our elections, where we've also taken steps not not the 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:59.160 Trump accepted them easily. He accepted them, kind of complaining 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:03.400 all the way. But I think Putin is a classic 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:06.280 case of an authoritarian leader who pushes until you push 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.960 back at him, and then he'll withdraw. So I think, UH, 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:14.480 just a stronger indication of how much we prize our 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.680 own elections and UH and or will take steps against 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:22.240 foreign interference. And likewise, in Belarus, I was hoping for 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:25.839 a Susan Rice vice presidential pick because Ambassador Bolton that 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:27.360 would have been a good theme to speak to you. 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.800 We don't have that, we have Senator Harris instead. But 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:34.560 you think of a Biden foreign policy and there's got 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:38.199 to be a place there for Ambassador Rice to participate 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.600 clearly with her service to the cause over the last 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:45.240 number of weeks, Susan Rice is a Secretary of State, 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:49.120 would be radically different than Secretary of State Pompeille. What 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:53.520 kind of secretary of state would she be? Well, looking 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:57.040 at her record, I think she'd try and reverse a 0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:59.720 lot of what I think the Trump administration did a 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.000 cop push in the Middle East. I think her positions 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:06.280 have been strongly anti Israel over the years. I think 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:10.600 she clearly wants to revive the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:14.360 was a disaster in TIF hadn't gotten any better with age. 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:17.480 And if I were Israel, I'd i'd be very worried. 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.599 Now you know this is uh. This is going to 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.040 be a problem for Biden, I think because I don't 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:25.679 believe those are his views. Uh. And and I think 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.719 there's gonna be if he prevails and becomes president. I 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:31.319 think Susan will become secretary of State. You know, I 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:34.360 always root for former national security advisors to move up 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.480 in the world. But uh, but I think, uh, I 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:40.680 think there's enormous tension within the Democratic Party. You know, 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.640 the press likes to talk about divisions in the Republican 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:47.560 Party on national security issues. Within the Democratic side, I 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:50.839 think they've got big problems and I think Biden, Biden 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:54.000 is gonna have some hard choices to make. Ambassadors, Thank 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:55.839 you so much for joining us. A memory of Brent 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.680 Scullcroft today, John Bolton with a book out that's done 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.120 uh pretty well at the stands here the room where 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:09.400 it happened, John Bolton, thank you so much. Right now, 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.600 we turned to the markets and there was some really 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.560 good research. You know, so Michael Schoel, he's a market 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:18.240 field Asset Management, their chief executive officer and someone who 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:21.280 looks across asset as well. Michael, thank you so much 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:25.400 for looking at this recovery from Marching the equity markets 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.959 as compared to that August, the two augusts where we 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.080 are right now, and also even back to December of 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:38.480 night seven. Was it a correction? Was it a bear market? 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.440 What was it? We just lived through. I believe it 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.320 was a collection in the bull market we started in 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:46.400 two thousand and nine. I mean, you know that there's 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:48.800 certainly at the mark slow. You could make an argument 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:53.120 of that bullmarket died on it's eleventh anniversary, UM. But 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:56.400 you know, we we came out of it um extremely quickly, 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.000 and we came out of it with with very similar leadership. 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:02.120 You know, technology was clear leadership going into it, technologies 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.160 clear leadership coming out of it. So you know, certainly 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:08.800 parts of the of the US equity market, UM. You know, 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.200 I think we're you know, went into a secular bear 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.720 market at that point in time, but it's really COVID 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:18.320 related equities which which went from ball to bear, and 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:20.480 you know, the bulk of the equity market is in 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.959 bold and in fact, interestingly, some of the cyclical stuff 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.960 which has really been uninteresting for you know several years, 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.959 has started to look very interesting again. We've seen that 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.400 in the railroads and of course small caps doing better 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:36.040 as well. Michael, I look at this equity market and 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:38.520 I look at the commitment of people to it, and 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:43.120 what we hear conversation after conversation is it's really not 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.800 an enthusiastic market. That there's too many walls that worry 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.000 out there. Do you agree with that assessment? I mean, 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.160 certainly if you you know, I think sentiment measures are 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:56.360 very poor given where the equity market is. We've seen 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:58.720 worse sentiments measures over the years, but I don't think 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.559 we've seen sentiment this with the equity market this VI high. 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.760 Having said that, you know, I think because passive investment 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.079 has been so important for the last few few years, 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:12.240 I think people are committed, even if they're reluctantly committed. Michael, 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.440 good morning. Is Anna here do we learn anything if 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.440 we look back at LTCM and the like. Do we 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.360 learn anything from these previous crises about about the way 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.160 this then goes because you've drawn this parallel. Yes, I 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:26.520 mean I think that the you know, central banks react 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.040 um and you you have a sort of general liquidation 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:31.840 which you come out the other side of and you 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.600 tend you know, And certainly in the late eighties and 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:37.400 late nineties, in both cases you had a narrowing of 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.800 leadership and in the end a sort of excessive commitment 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.400 of capital to what people thought worked. So in the 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.120 late eighties it was all about Japan and markets like 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:49.480 Taiwan um you know, that made highs that in Japan's 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:52.560 case haven't been approached ever since. Taiwan. We finally made 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.280 made that new higher couple of months, a couple of 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.720 weeks ago. Um, you know, and of course in the 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.720 late ninety nineties, I'm sure everybody knows, you know, technology 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.640 came out and completely dominated you know, that ball market. 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.640 Tech had done well, but it wasn't the only place 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.360 where people wanted to be. So you know, my feeling 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.880 is that you do see now again and knowing of 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:16.600 leadership as an excessive commitment of capital to portions of technology, um, 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.640 and perhaps a couple of other sectors you know, strangely 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:21.920 enough managed to jump on the bandwagon as I think. 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.920 You know, I'm quite bullish about precious metals. I think 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.360 they have the ability to to get on board, or 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.400 certainly are on board, and I actually think we're going 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.240 to see a boardening. Um. You know. I think the 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.600 physical global economy is going to do much much better 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.960 than the global services economy. And I think that's you're 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.240 starting to see about play out in equity market and 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:43.280 why and why is that supportive to precious metals then, 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.680 because of course gold has gone a long way up, Michael, 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.800 because of fears about the global economy. But you're talking 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.400 about what you're talking about precious metals that are useful 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.800 in industrial processes. Is that that the distinction you're making? No, No, 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.200 I think I think precious medals are very sensitive to 0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:02.000 global equidity, and central banks are going to be in 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:06.600 full emergency mode for the foreseeable future. UM. And even 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.320 if we do get pickups and things like inflation and 0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.120 and good data coming out of it, they say, the 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:15.080 physical economy, I think is gonna look is gonna look okay. 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.960 There's going to be so much COVID related weakness in 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:20.920 the in the service economy, and prevailing unemployment rates are 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:23.920 going to be so much higher than they were eight, nine, 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:27.520 ten months ago that you know, I think central banks 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.280 are going to you know you are going to be 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.520 doing more of what they're doing today. And that's that's 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.320 really quite positive. And precious metals, I think that's not 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.000 that contentious. I think where I probably am more contentious 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.640 as I think that the the industrial the industrial side 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.480 of the commodity markets look like they can get going 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.160 here um and that that I'd say, any kind of 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:51.400 acceleration in the physical portion of the of the global economy, 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.440 whether it's the US housing market or the Chinese hearth 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:58.040 housing market or Chinese infrastructure spending. You know, I think 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:00.400 that that that you're going to see a you know, 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:03.960 you're going to see some of the industrial medals. Um. 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.800 You know, really hitch a right on the very narrow 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:09.359 pressures medals rally that we've had so far. Michael, sure, 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.960 do you assume the industrial recovery that you're suggesting is 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:16.080 a recovery of concentration where we're going to see a 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:19.800 lot of them and a activity transactions and combinations because 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:23.360 people are desperate to find revenue growth. Um. I mean, 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:24.840 I think you might see some of it. But I 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:28.520 also think that that actually, as they say, physical activity 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:30.399 is going to be okay, and it's going to be 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.800 okay partly because of the disruptions of COVID. So we 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.199 see it already, for instance, in the US housing market, 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.920 anything housing related is starting to accelerate. Even if people 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:41.320 aren't buying new homes, they're renovating the you know, they're 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:44.399 innovating their existing homes. Um. And I think this is 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:46.840 this is going to be boreder than just than just 0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:49.399 a U S story. So they say it's very easy 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:54.280 to see the destructive impact of COVID. UM it's very obvious, 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.200 it's very real, but there has been a constructive impacts 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.440 of COVID as well. In other words, it's four people 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.600 to go out and spend on things that they hadn't 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:07.600 necessarily expected to haven't necessarily expected to spend on. That's very, 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:09.680 very true. Michael schul, thank you so much for joining 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:18.000 us today with market Field Asset Management. Right now, Leslie 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.840 Benjamurry joins. She's a chadow mouse in London, but she 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.600 is expert on pass blue Ribbon in Milwaukee, and we're 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.199 thrilled that she could join us right now. What a 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:32.719 strange convention? Dr Vinjamurray, I guess it's a non convention, 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:35.879 but it's not. I haven't ansked this question this morning, 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:37.919 so let me go to you, with all your study 0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:44.040 of American politics. If it's not Chicago or Harry Truman, 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:50.560 what is Biden gonna look like? Well, you know, I 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:52.760 have to say, Tom, I think it's it's actually a 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:57.200 very exciting convention. It's specifically because we kind of don't 0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:59.840 know what to expect. We've always known for the you know, 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.480 the last long period, who's going to be the candidate 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:06.760 coming out of any convention. But this is gonna look very, 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.200 very different. And I think, you know, the lineup is 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:11.720 is interesting. I think the goal, of course, is to 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:17.240 get voters excited about this ticket, the Biden Harris ticket, 0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:20.480 rather than just being driven by you know, voting against 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:24.080 the sitting president. Um. But the lineup, you know, from 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:28.800 Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, John Kasik, Andrew Cuomo, I mean 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.399 you can see that the drive is really too to 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.760 unite the party, to bring in the young and progressive voters. 0:19:34.880 --> 0:19:38.480 Also to create an opening for those who from the 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.960 Republican Party who might want to vote Democrats. So it's 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:44.560 it's going to be a very interesting few days, even 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:47.439 if not surprising. This came up this weekend, and you know, 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.480 within my amateur take Leslie Benjerbury, it's simple. They have 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:54.760 to get out the vote. How do they get the 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:59.000 youth of America, many are so upset with President Trump. 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:02.320 How do they get them to actually show up and vote? 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:05.800 You know, I think there's um, there is a drive. Obviously, 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:08.679 this is a real concern um that the young people have. 0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:11.240 As we know from the data, they've been hit hardest 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:14.600 by unemployment, they've been hit hardest by school closures. My 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:19.360 online education, by the uncertainty that's facing them in September, 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.600 they look to go back to campus or not. So 0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:24.760 I think that there is a lot of any energy 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.760 there and it really is about inspiring them to turn 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.080 up and to put that vote forward. Um uh. You know, 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:34.480 President Trump is trying with his play to a deferring 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.600 student interest race on student loans UM. But the Democrats 0:20:38.680 --> 0:20:41.320 have this challenge and that is really going to be 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:43.719 what a lot of the next four nights are about. 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:46.360 And I think that's why we see Bernie Sanders having 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.080 a very important role at this convention, because of course 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:52.800 he's been very much liked by a lot of young 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:56.320 voters um and and he's not the only one. So 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.680 I think that that is a real and very generous concern. 0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.879 But remember that young voters don't face the health constraint, right, 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:05.400 they don't. They aren't as worried about being hit by 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:09.760 the actual virus UM what there are concerned. They don't 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:12.960 feel them to the same degree. So they're more likely 0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:15.600 in that sense if they could be inspired to actually 0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:17.320 turn out and take the risk of voting. Yeah. I 0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:20.560 mean some minority groups might feel more vulnerable, and perhaps 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:22.720 that might be an issue for the Democrats, Leslie, good 0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:25.159 to speak to you today, just crossing the Bloomberger and 0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:27.679 mixed signals from the President this morning in terms of 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:30.600 his mood towards China, as Tom says, praising what they're 0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:33.200 doing on agricultural products, but then going so far as 0:21:33.240 --> 0:21:36.720 to say that Quawei spies on the United States. He 0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:38.840 also made the points over the weekend that the Democrats 0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:41.960 haven't said much about China. Will they be pushed by 0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:44.359 the d NDC to comment on China or are they 0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:46.359 trying to stay away from that subject. I mean, I 0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:48.680 think right now, so much of the focus was going 0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:51.480 to be on what is happening at home in America. 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:57.200 It's about the concerns over trying to obstruct the actual voting, 0:21:57.240 --> 0:22:00.200 about the postal service, it's about the pandemic, it's about 0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:05.479 an employment. But China, of course, is the ongoing foreign 0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:09.560 policy concern for the United States. The Democrats won't be 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:13.159 seen to look um, the weak or soft on China. 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:16.199