1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. What's going on? Everybody? Welcome to 2 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast series. This is the Experts Guide 3 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: to Betting. I'm your host, Dane Martinez, and we get 4 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 1: started today with the NAHL. We don't just give you 5 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: a fish. We like to teach you how to fish. 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: And that's what we are going to aim to do 7 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: here with our Expert Guides to betting. And when we 8 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: go to the NHL, there is nobody better, no better 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: fishermen as it were, than the Action Network Hockey expert 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: our guy, Michael leap Off. Mike, You're gonna help us 11 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 1: all become better fishermen today. Mike. 12 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: How you doing I'm doing well. 13 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 3: I'm very excited to talk about betting on the NHL, 14 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 3: one of my three passions in life. 15 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: Okay, we'll ask you about the other two at another time, 16 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: but let's start off. To be quite honest, I hate 17 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: say it this way, but what qualifies you as an expert? Like? 18 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: How often are you betting? Like? How long have you 19 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: been doing this? Mike? 20 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 3: It's probably been over a decade at this point for me, 21 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 3: betting on the NHL basically every day of every season, 22 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 3: and part of what makes me an. 23 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: Expert is that I've paid my dues. 24 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 3: I've kind of paid my tuition of making the dumb 25 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,119 Speaker 3: mistakes that every novice NHL better or novice sports better 26 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 3: in general will make, and learning from them, and talking 27 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 3: to people who have gone through the same process as 28 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,199 Speaker 3: I have, and learning from them and basically taking parts 29 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 3: of what made them successful at whether it's betting on 30 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 3: the NHL or tennis or whatever, learning from that incorporating 31 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 3: it into how I go about handicapping a sport that 32 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 3: is just absurd. 33 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so you've gone to the school of hard 34 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 1: knots or let's call it the school of emotion or 35 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: undisciplined or believing the lower body injury. But I guess 36 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: if people are new to betting the NHL, right, it 37 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: can be intimidating. You know, we see puck lines, we 38 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: see shots on goal props. You know, is it possible? 39 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: Is it possible to become a sharper hockey better over 40 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: time and actually be profitable and successful? 41 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: Yes, definitely. 42 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 3: It's hard, just like any other sport, and your expectations 43 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 3: need to kind of be adjusted to that, Like you're 44 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 3: not going to if you're just starting out betting on 45 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 3: the NHL. Maybe you think you've got to figure it out, 46 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 3: and you have like a hot start to a season, 47 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 3: You're gonna get put on your on your behind at 48 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 3: some point and you just need to know that. So 49 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 3: managing your expectations to begin with is very important. But 50 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 3: from there, yeah, there is like the NHL is uh 51 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 3: compared to other markets like the NFL or college football 52 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 3: the NBA at this point, like it's a softer market 53 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 3: because less there's less money in it, right, so the 54 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 3: lines are a little softer compared to you know, Jets 55 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: Titans on a Thursday night football, which is going to 56 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 3: do a bigger handle than basically the entire NHL season. 57 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 2: So your chance of success, while still all is. 58 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 3: A little bit greater than if you were trying to 59 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 3: take on, you know, the big beast that is the NFL. 60 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 3: So as long as you're able to kind of go 61 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 3: into the NHL s he'son, willing to learn and learn 62 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: from your mistakes and knowing that I'm going to fail 63 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 3: at some point and then be able to pick yourself up, 64 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 3: you should give. 65 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 2: Yourself a chance to succeed and become better. 66 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess that's an important part, right, Mike, you 67 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: know you're gonna fail forty percent of the time, right 68 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: at least, and if you fail forty percent of the time, 69 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: you're actually an amazing sports investor in the NHL. So 70 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: let's get it started, Mike, I mean to get yourself 71 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: to bet regularly on the NHL. What would you consider 72 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: one of the most like foundational, big rock cornerstone elements 73 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: of betting the NHL If you were talking to somebody new, 74 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: what are some of the first things they really need 75 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: to understand? 76 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean the first thing you want to 77 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: just be aware of is that it's a moneyline sport. 78 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: Right. You're not dealing with spreads, so the market isn't 79 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 3: leveling the playing. 80 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 2: Field for you. 81 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 3: You need to become familiar with probabilities and what implied 82 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 3: probability means in terms of the money line. So you know, 83 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 3: minus one ten minus one ten that's a pick them. 84 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: That means basically fifty percent on each side, and as 85 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 3: it adjusts one way or the other, those probabilities increase 86 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 3: or decrease. You're not thinking, oh, do I think the 87 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 3: Senators are going to win? It's do I think the 88 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: Senators are going to win? More than you know, blank 89 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 3: percent of the time, whatever it's correlated to in that case, right, 90 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 3: So that's step one, becoming familiar with what you are 91 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 3: trying to accomplish. You're trying to provide yourself with expected value. 92 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 3: So once you get that very foundational aspect of knowing 93 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 3: what implied probabilities and what you're actually betting into, then 94 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: you need to start becoming comfortable with the beast of 95 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 3: the NHL, which is you're going to have to bet 96 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 3: on bad teams. 97 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 2: Right, Like, this is a money line sport. 98 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 3: We know from betting that typically favorites are going to 99 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 3: be inflated in value. So you need to just realize, Look, 100 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 3: the Sabers and the Coyotes from this past twenty twenty 101 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 3: two season, they were terrible, but just because they're terrible 102 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 3: doesn't mean that you just need to cross them off 103 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 3: your list and it just bet against them every night. 104 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 3: For that to happen, you're going to need to beat 105 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 3: the market at a very very high clip, which you're 106 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 3: just not going to be able to do. So getting 107 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 3: comfortable betting these bad, you know, terrible teams is a 108 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 3: really important aspect to betting on the NHL. There's thirty 109 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: two teams in the NHL twelve are going to be 110 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 3: terrible every season, and those twelve are probably going to 111 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 3: be the ones that you end up showing the most 112 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 3: value on by the time of season comes to an end. 113 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: So, you know, Mike, you mentioned that maybe of the 114 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: four main sports, right, the NHL has the lowest handle, 115 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: and so you can actually find some soft line. So 116 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: that may be something, you know, kind of on the 117 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 1: good side for the betters. But you know, there are 118 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:41,919 Speaker 1: some things that are uniquely challenging about the NHL as well. Like, 119 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: for example, I joked before about the lower body injury. 120 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: It seems to me that the NHL, more than any 121 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: other league is more kind of close to the vest 122 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: when it comes to injury news, which I know is 123 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: an important piece of data. Is that kind of the 124 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 1: biggest challenge? What other things are really hard about betting 125 00:05:58,920 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: the NHL. 126 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely one of them. 127 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 3: Right, Like in the NBA, you have a ton of 128 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 3: media coverage, and there's there's not all that many players 129 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 3: per team, right Like the NHL, you're looking at twenty 130 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 3: players every night that address eighteen skaters, two goalies. Each 131 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 3: one of those skaters is important to like the equation, 132 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 3: especially the goaltenders, like who is playing tonight. 133 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 2: Who's hurt, who's one. 134 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 3: Hundred percent healthy, Maybe someone is, you know, got a 135 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 3: personal issue away from the team. And NHL coaches are 136 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 3: notorious for being guarded, and part of that is because 137 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 3: there's not as much media pressure for them to come 138 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 3: out and say, you know, to give away that information 139 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 3: because the NHL media machine compared to the NBA or 140 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 3: the NFL, it's just it's like a speck of dust, right, 141 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 3: So you're not that information is going to be really 142 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 3: hard to come by, and you need to just kind 143 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 3: of get with the rhythm of when it comes out, 144 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 3: which is on a game day for a team. Teams 145 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: will hold morning skates than the coach will do a 146 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,559 Speaker 3: media availability. That's usually eleven am Eastern time for seven 147 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 3: pm Eastern time game, so you can adjust that per 148 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 3: your time zone or what time zone the games. And 149 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 3: at that point you're going to hopefully, and I say, 150 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 3: and I really do stress, hopefully learn who the starting 151 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 3: goalie is, what players are hurt, who's coming in and 152 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 3: at of lina, maybe there was a call up. And 153 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: the problem is that coaches just basically on a whim 154 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 3: or how they feel that day will or will not 155 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 3: divulge to that information, and it's important. 156 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: So let me ask you this, though you're talking about 157 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: kind of on a day to day basis, right, let's 158 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: zoom out just a little bit and the kind of 159 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: grand cycle of it all. You know, once Lord Stanley's 160 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: Cup gets hoisted and dented most likely and people are 161 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: drinking all sorts of stuff out of it, or in 162 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: the off season, as you start to look towards the 163 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: next season, what are some of the things you do 164 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: to kind of identify what teams are have the arrows 165 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: pointing up, what teams have the arrows pointing down, player movement, 166 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: coach movement style. What do you kind of do from 167 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: season to season to kind of index your teams moving 168 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: forward for the next year. 169 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 3: Yeah. One of the great things about being an NHL 170 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 3: fan and an NHL better is that change is very 171 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: gradual on a team by team basis. Sure, there will 172 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 3: be outliers to every rule, maybe team matri coaching change 173 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 3: or acquires, you know, a great player and the off 174 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 3: season in the trade or something, But for the most part, 175 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 3: if you're looking at a team of the League of 176 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 3: thirty two teams, like three fourths of them, seventy five 177 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 3: percent of them, they're just following a trajectory, step by 178 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 3: step plan towards contention or step by step plan towards 179 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 3: tanking and then getting back up towards the. 180 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 2: Top of the mountain. 181 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 3: Whereas the NFL, the player movement is insane. The NBA 182 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 3: as well, like teams are just will look completely different 183 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: from season to season. 184 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 2: That's just not the case of the NHL. 185 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 3: So while you're not going to know exactly what a 186 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 3: team looks is going to look like for opening night, 187 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 3: just because they of how they finished the previous season, 188 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 3: you have a general idea of what direction they're going, 189 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 3: what kind of style of hockey they're playing, where their 190 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 3: talent level is, and how they played last year. 191 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 2: So if you take a look back as. 192 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 3: You're getting towards training camp for the upcoming season, you 193 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 3: take a look back at the thirty two teams and 194 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 3: you become familiar with you know, their their underlying metrics, 195 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 3: their actual stats, where they finished season, you should have 196 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 3: a pretty good idea of where at least they're arrows pointing. 197 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 3: So for the first fifteen or so games of the 198 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 3: upcoming season, you're now relying on that information, and even 199 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 3: though it's you know, four months old, and there's going 200 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 3: to be some wonkiness because of the offseason thrown in between, 201 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 3: it like you have a pretty decent idea of what 202 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 3: kind of team you're dealing with going into said new season, 203 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 3: and then as that season starts to roll around, you know, 204 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 3: fifteen twenty games is usually the benchmark that NHL betters 205 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 3: like to say. 206 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 2: Okay, now, I'll flip the. 207 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 3: Page and start to really weigh the new season's data, 208 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 3: and most of the time you'll find out that that 209 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 3: new season's data kind of lines up with that arrow 210 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 3: pointing from the previous season. 211 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: Okay, now, now, Mike, you know you talk about overlaying 212 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 1: data right onto your original perceptions and kind of how 213 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: that adjusts. So take me back day by day once 214 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: you are in season. You mentioned the morning skate, You 215 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: mentioned things like an injury report. You mentioned things like 216 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: when the coach is in front of a microphone, you know, 217 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: telling you maybe what they are thinking. These are all 218 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 1: sources of data, right, So what are the sources of 219 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: data that you like to look at on a day 220 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: by day basis in the season. What are the factors 221 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: that you actually put more weight into. What are some 222 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: of the places you go to to find this data 223 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: on a day by day basis, like on a random 224 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: Wednesday in February. 225 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 3: For the most part, we all know as better is 226 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 3: that the box score tends to be a little dishonest. 227 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 3: And for the NHL, when you're looking at a final 228 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 3: score or you're looking at a team's record, you have 229 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 3: to go below the surface and you have to see 230 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 3: what this team's five on five statistical profile looks like. 231 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,199 Speaker 3: And for that, I'm talking about scoring chance generation, the 232 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 3: preventing of scoring chances. 233 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 2: And then you can also work in some goaltending. 234 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 3: Stuff for me, like expected goals is kind of the 235 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 3: catch all stat that everybody is what it uses in 236 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 3: the NHL betting community. That kind of tells you, okay, 237 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 3: Like if a team puts up two goals in a game, 238 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 3: but their expected goals was four point eight, it tells 239 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 3: you that, hey, this team ran into hot goaltender, or 240 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: maybe they're just a little unlucky finishing. If you flip 241 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 3: that over defensively and say, okay, this team allowed four 242 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 3: point expected goals, that's a lot, but they only on 243 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 3: the scoreboard and only set one. You know, they were 244 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 3: bailed out by their goalie or the other team just 245 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 3: couldn't finish. So over the course of a season, those 246 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 3: stats will kind of tell you the true talent level, 247 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 3: the true like actual level of a team more than 248 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 3: their actual goals and goals against. So relying on that 249 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 3: stuff from you know, money Puck dot com Natural stat 250 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 3: Trick dot com. Those are the two public models that 251 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 3: that I use the most. Of course, you know, no 252 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 3: public model is going to be as good as what 253 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 3: teams and leagues have, like there's going to be flaws 254 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 3: to them, but over the course of a long term, 255 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 3: like they these models will give you an idea of just, 256 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 3: you know, is this team actually. 257 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 2: Good or are they just getting lucky? 258 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 3: So every day you should make a habit to go 259 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 3: into places like actuallynetwork dot com or money puck dot 260 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 3: com or natural stat Trick dot com and get used to, 261 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 3: you know, what their numbers are, telling you what they mean, 262 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 3: and just become familiar with hey, expected goals, high danger 263 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 3: scoring chances, and five on five just generally five on 264 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 3: five statistical trends because sure like there's going to be 265 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 3: outliers to every season that have power plays that bail 266 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 3: them out, or you know, the special teams are really good. 267 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 3: Eighty percent of the season has played a five on five, 268 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 3: So a team's five on five stats and metrics, they'll 269 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 3: give you the better idea of a team's true level, 270 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 3: you know, their overall play, incorporating those those special teams numbers. 271 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, And of course remember download the Action Network 272 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: app because then you get all the data, all the systems, 273 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: all the tools to be a better better like my 274 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: guy Michael Leapoff, you know, I'm like. One thing they 275 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: also say is that, like, the goaltender is probably the 276 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 1: most important position in all of sports. How do you 277 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: hang your hat on goaltending? 278 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, not only is it the most important position in 279 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 3: basically any sport, it's also the hardest to project on 280 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 3: a game by game basis. It's it's such an unnatural 281 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 3: athletic skill. Generally speaking, it's not all that uncommon for 282 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 3: goalies to kind of like fall off a cliff or 283 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 3: to come out of nowhere and put together these these 284 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,959 Speaker 3: crazy seasons, we will see goalies come out of nowhere 285 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 3: and put together, you know, these spectacular runs or go 286 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 3: the other way like we saw Sergey Blebrowski, who was 287 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 3: thought to be the best goalie in the NHL for 288 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 3: a while to completely tank a couple of seasons ago. 289 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 3: What I'm basically trying to say is that you need 290 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 3: to account for goaltending. You'll have a general idea of 291 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 3: where the level of a certain goalie is, but you 292 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 3: can't spend all day thinking like, ohs Andre Vazileski going 293 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 3: to have an off night. You're just not going to 294 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 3: know that information. So while I'm not saying just to 295 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 3: like draw a line through the goalie, you just can't 296 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 3: try to predict, specifically project a goaltender from game to 297 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 3: game rather than just use the long term trend of 298 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 3: where is this goalies' level this season and trying to 299 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 3: keep it at that baseline. Is is he trending up? 300 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 3: Is he trending down? Rather than being like, oh, I 301 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 3: think he's going to have an off night or I 302 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,719 Speaker 3: think he's going to steal this one, that's just it's 303 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 3: it's it's just not going to work out for you, 304 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 3: and it's just going to drive you insane. 305 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: Now tell me this, you know, I like to say, 306 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: we're not just giving you a fish. We're teaching you 307 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: how to fish. So kind of define for me here, Mike, 308 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 1: what be an ideal betting opportunity in the NHL. What 309 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: are the things you're looking for? What is a kind 310 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: of tried and true blueprint opportunity that you're hunting on 311 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 1: a daily basis. 312 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, so over the course of the season, you're going 313 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 3: to if you are betting every day, And I'm not 314 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 3: encouraging anyone to just you know, pick up NHL and 315 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 3: bet it every day, but if you are committed to it, 316 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 3: like you're going to have to at least follow the 317 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 3: season and follow like the elements low limits, right, Yeah, 318 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 3: just low limits, be responsible, all that good stuffy and 319 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 3: and you're going to pick up like the ebbs and 320 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: flows of a season and of the market, because you 321 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 3: should pay attention to where the market is closing on 322 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 3: a particular team basically every night. So like if you think, 323 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 3: oh man, the Minnesota Wild for some reason, I keep 324 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 3: thinking that they're going to close as you know, minus 325 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 3: one thirty in this spot, but they close twenty cents longer, 326 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 3: Like your number is probably wrong a little bit, or 327 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 3: you know, maybe you're onto something, so you want to 328 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 3: pay attention to that that kind of stuff. So A 329 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 3: perfect example would be if you're if you're paying attention 330 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 3: to a team and you're saying, wow, like, this team 331 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 3: is consistently overperforming against their expected goals, maybe their goaltenders hot, 332 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 3: maybe their. 333 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 2: Power plays hot. 334 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 3: Whatever, they're on a little bit of a hot streak, 335 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 3: and they're running into a team that maybe the opposite 336 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 3: is happening. They're playing well five on five, they're getting opportunities, 337 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 3: they're getting more scoring chances than their opposition, but they're 338 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 3: just not converting them and they're losing. And those teams meet. 339 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 3: You know that team A, the team that is overperforming, 340 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 3: is going to be overpriced compared to team B. And 341 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 3: that's a great by low opportunity, you know, by low 342 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 3: sell high opportunity, which across any market is a best practice. Right, 343 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 3: So you're going to because you've been paying attention to 344 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 3: where these teams have closed and what they're you know, 345 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 3: their underlying metrics have been on a game two game basis, 346 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 3: you're going to be able to identify those opportunities hopefully 347 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 3: before the market. Will they all win, absolutely not, but 348 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 3: you're probably going to beat the market in those situations. 349 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: Mike, let me ask you, you know about two kinds 350 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: of ways that I know people are really excited to bet, 351 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: not only the NHL but in general these days. Wanted 352 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: to get your thoughts on how it applies to the 353 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: NHL and hockey. And the first is props. Okay, everybody 354 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: loves betting props and in other sports they may be 355 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: a little bit more straightforward, right, but there's props in 356 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: the NHL from everything from points to assist, the shots 357 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: on goal to save. So is there any kind of 358 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: tried and true strategy in the prop market? So, for example, right, like, 359 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 1: I'm looking at guys in the shots on goal market 360 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: that are also on the main power play line, right 361 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: because they are getting those shots. But to be honest, 362 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: I'm not looking at the big boys. I'm looking at 363 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: like the second and third guys on those lines. So 364 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: for example, I'm not taking Nate McKinnon, but I am 365 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: taking Rantin and Landescot on shots on goals props. Right, 366 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: I'm not taking dry sidle one McDavid, but I am 367 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: taking Kine. I'm taking a lot over Koutrov, you know, 368 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: when it comes to that, because I think they will 369 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: have those opportunities, but some of those props aren't as inflated. 370 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: That's just me How crazy am I? 371 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 3: Mike No, I think your logic is sound right, and 372 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 3: it's these props all come down to opportunity and because 373 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 3: of what we talked about earlier with the market generally 374 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 3: just isn't paying attention as much to the NHL as 375 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 3: they do to other sports. You will have chances, especially 376 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 3: the deeper you go in the market, right, pluck props 377 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 3: and and those kinds of exotic that's to win. So 378 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 3: if you have, if you think you have a pretty 379 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 3: good beat on you know, player props for a certain player, 380 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 3: you're likely that's likely to get you know, continue throughout, 381 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 3: you know, at least a stretch of the season, until 382 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,919 Speaker 3: the market truly does catch up. Like this the twenty 383 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 3: twenty one twenty twenty two post season, Nathan McKinnon's overs 384 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 3: shots on goal became like a mini I mean, you 385 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 3: can't really be a viral sensation in NHL betting because 386 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 3: nobody does it. 387 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 2: The eighteen people that actually. 388 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 3: Do it became a thing, right because it kept cashing 389 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 3: over and the books just there's there comes a point 390 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 3: where you just can't go any further up for the 391 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 3: books because then they'll come back down right. So if 392 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 3: you do think you have beat because you notice this 393 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 3: player is getting more opportunity on a power play. Maybe 394 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 3: he's you know, a young player who who's stepped up 395 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 3: in a lineup because somebody else left free agency or 396 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 3: is in trade, and now this person's stepping up. If 397 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 3: you can beat the market to realizing that that that 398 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 3: opportunity is coming for this player, you'll have a chance. 399 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: Okay, And then you know, you talk about beating the market. 400 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: And one time and one way, Mike, that I see 401 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: that the market almost paints itself into a corner in 402 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: the NHL is in live betting, and I'd love to 403 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 1: get some of your thoughts on live betting. Like, for example, 404 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 1: one of the things I've been following to great effect 405 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 1: is when there is a tie game in the third period, 406 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: it seems to me like the book is almost undervaluing 407 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: the idea of the empty net goal. If it's two 408 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: to two with nine minutes left, they're hanging five and 409 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: a half and they can't go to four and a 410 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: half because you know there's gonna be an extra goal. 411 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: But it seems like they undervalue the fact that if 412 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: a team scores with two and a half minutes left 413 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 1: to go, other team's gonna pull that goalie. They're gonna 414 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: have a great opportunity to get another one, pushing that 415 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: live total over. That's something I've seen, especially with teams 416 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: kind of more and more pulling their goalie, even earlier 417 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: in the game when down by one, hell even when 418 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 1: down by two. That's something I've seen in live betting. 419 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: Do you agree, What do you see in live betting 420 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: the NHL? 421 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely one. 422 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 3: The empty net just looms large in the NHL to 423 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 3: begin with, and like you said, there is now a 424 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 3: general trend of coaches. They could be down three to 425 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:32,640 Speaker 3: nothing in a game and with nine minutes left, they're 426 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 3: pulling the goalie. You can become familiar with those kind 427 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 3: of coaches because they'll do it once and then they'll 428 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 3: keep doing it for entire season. So if you keep 429 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 3: those in your back pocket, it's hard for a sportsbooks 430 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 3: algorithm to account for that, right. So that is a 431 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 3: pretty good example to use of just generally paying attention 432 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 3: and keeping those kind of situations in your pocket as potential, 433 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 3: you know, plus expected value, because hey, I know that 434 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,199 Speaker 3: coach A likes to pull his goalie with eight minutes left, 435 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,360 Speaker 3: if he's down three, and look they're down three right now, 436 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet that live over because I'm expecting a 437 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 3: goalie not to be in the net his job. 438 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 2: He's just going to. 439 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 3: Abandon it, right. That's a weird, weird thing about hockey. 440 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 3: And generally, I think if you are paying attention on 441 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 3: a game by game basis, you'll start to pick up 442 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 3: you know, teams that are you know, first period over unders. 443 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 3: I think are are interesting as well, like in terms 444 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 3: of like live benning, Like teams do have profiles and 445 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 3: on a given season, so if you know, you know, 446 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,360 Speaker 3: Team A comes out of the gates flying and they 447 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 3: put out two goals in the first period, that number 448 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 3: is gonna inflate up. But you know this team likes 449 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 3: to get out to a lead and then they like 450 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 3: to nurse that lead across the finish line. You can 451 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 3: generally beat the market in those kinds of situations. Example 452 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 3: and another example that I think a lot of people 453 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 3: it's not like it's a known secret. I don't want 454 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 3: to say that because it's not something that just like 455 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,159 Speaker 3: is like the secret to benning on a sport, Like 456 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 3: if you hear that it's if something sounds too good 457 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 3: to be true, it is right. 458 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 2: But a lot of times, because hockey. 459 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 3: Is such a high variant sports that is played on ice, 460 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 3: like that cannot be overstated, Like this sport is played 461 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: on ice, So there's gonna be some crazy stuff that 462 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 3: happens in the sixty minutes that these people are skating 463 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 3: around on ice. That first ten minutes, the team's getting 464 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 3: badly outplayed. They could score a lucky goal, right like, 465 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 3: and you know, like they don't not deserve this lead, 466 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 3: but the market is going to adjust and make them 467 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 3: the favorite because scoring first and hockey is important. But 468 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 3: if you've picked up you know they've scored one goal 469 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 3: on point one expected goals and the other team is 470 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 3: throwing a ton of rubber at the net, but the 471 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 3: goal is just standing on his head. There's probably gonna 472 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 3: be value going the other way on the team to come. 473 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 1: Back, right, And if you're watching the game, you can 474 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 1: see if a goal was a soft goal. You can 475 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: see if a team is really flying around and understand 476 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: more than maybe what the algorithm is just telling you. 477 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: Is there anything also like kind of in the evolution 478 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: of the game, you know that you can kind of 479 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: get ahead of Like we've said, you know, coaches may 480 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,920 Speaker 1: pull goalies earlier. There there's less fighting in the game 481 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: right now, right more speed in the game. Has that 482 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: led to maybe any other way to bet the NHL? 483 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: Really because of the evolution either of the athletes or 484 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 1: the rules or the style of the NHL over the 485 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: last decade or so. 486 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, the game has certainly opened up. 487 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 3: This past twenty twenty one twenty twenty two season saw 488 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 3: the over cash and over fifty percent of the time, 489 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,239 Speaker 3: and that is the first time in our database at 490 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot Com Action Labs that we've seen that happen 491 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 3: since two thousand and five, two thousand and six, which 492 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 3: is the first year of us collecting data on this stuff. 493 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 3: So the scoring is up, and bookmakers know that you're 494 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 3: not going to see fives and fives and a half 495 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 3: the totals most nights. You're going to see six and 496 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 3: a half and sevens. We're going to see seven and 497 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 3: a halfs a lot of the time next year as well. 498 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,439 Speaker 3: So knowing this kind of information, you need to then decide, Okay, 499 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 3: has the market caught up to the uptick and scoring 500 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,400 Speaker 3: or is there still room to grow and we should 501 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 3: know that pretty quickly in the upcoming season, and then 502 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 3: you can use that information to either bet against the 503 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 3: trend or Okay, they're not adjusting enough. The scoring trend 504 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 3: is not stopping. So that's one one thing, one way 505 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 3: that the game's kind of evolved. And the other thing 506 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 3: is last year twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two, we 507 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 3: saw favorites clip at sixty four point eight percent, which 508 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 3: is the highest that we have once again in that 509 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 3: same Action Labs database. So a sport that generally speaking 510 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 3: you need to be comfortable betting underdogs kind of was 511 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,479 Speaker 3: flipped on its head. So once again, bookmakers know that betting, 512 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 3: like all things, is very cyclical. So is next season, 513 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 3: the twenty twenty two twenty twenty three season going to 514 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 3: be you know, are the dogs going to come back? 515 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 3: Are our book mayor is going to adjust and all 516 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 3: of a sudden people are going to think favorite, favorite 517 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 3: favorite every night? 518 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 2: Or is that trend just going to continue? 519 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 3: So there's still that, you know, part of what we 520 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 3: talked about it from the jump is you know, the 521 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 3: education and learning from your mistakes, and it just shows 522 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 3: you that you just can't stop learning and betting. 523 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 2: So are we What are we going to learn next year? 524 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 2: Is it is? 525 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 3: It is betting truly the cyclical thing, no matter the 526 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 3: sport or are we just going to see is the 527 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 3: NHL changing for good? Where these favorites just gonna keep 528 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 3: winning and winning and ruining my life? 529 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: So, Mike, one thing I would say is even folks 530 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 1: that don't love hockey or the NHL, I've heard them 531 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 1: say to me, but the NHL playoffs are amazing to watch, 532 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 1: you know. There's so much excitement, so much intensity, right, 533 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: So bring that to the betting world, Like, what is 534 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 1: the ultimate high? What is the ultimate intensity in the 535 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: context of an NHL bet? For me, it's just the 536 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: same thing that I mentioned before. I take a third 537 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: period over and then all of a sudden, with only 538 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: like forty five seconds left, the team scores and I 539 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 1: get that empty net goal at the very end, cashing 540 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: on a live over at like plus three forty. For you, 541 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 1: what would be kind of the ultimate thrill in betting 542 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: the NHL? 543 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 3: Man, There's nothing quite like having, you know, a plus 544 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 3: two to fifty underdog, you know, blow a three goal 545 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 3: lead in the third period and then win an overtime. 546 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 3: That is my favorite thing because you get to experience 547 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 3: the actual, you know, self loathing of losing a bet 548 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,880 Speaker 3: like that a good bet because you think, oh, there's 549 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 3: no way that this team, you know, they just blew 550 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 3: the three goal lead. There's no way they're going to 551 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 3: come back, and then when they actually do, you get 552 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 3: to experience both the lows and the highs of betting, 553 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 3: which which is why we all do it in one 554 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 3: fell swoop. So I do enjoy that, And like you said, 555 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,919 Speaker 3: there are people it's a huge trope in hockey that, 556 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 3: oh the playoffs, any show, playoffs are the best. Like 557 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 3: if you are betting every night, like you're going to 558 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 3: enjoy the sweat of hockey like it's a playoff game 559 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 3: every night. So that's why I encourage people to kind 560 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 3: of get to know it more through betting, which is 561 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,400 Speaker 3: is definitely the best way to sink your teeth into 562 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 3: a new sport if it's something that you're interested in. 563 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 1: All right, So one thing I encourage people to do 564 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 1: is follow you and your bets on the Action Network. 565 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,919 Speaker 1: How can we tell you, as our fishermen here in 566 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: the expert series, how can we find out who you're 567 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: betting on next NHL season? 568 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, just look for the. 569 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 3: Worst team on the slate and then just click that 570 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 3: when I'm just kidding. My action network Candle is a 571 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,679 Speaker 3: leadoff m L E B O F F M, and 572 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 3: you can follow me on Twitter at the Big Leagueowski 573 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 3: with two e's and where I generally am spending the 574 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 3: NHL season complaining about, you know, these underdogs losing in 575 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 3: very painful fashion. So I'm always happy to talk talk 576 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 3: shop when it comes to NHL betting, so you know, 577 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 3: feel free to reach out. 578 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,400 Speaker 1: Well, alright, alright, alright, this has been the first installment 579 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: of our Experts Guide to Betting. Like I always say here, 580 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: we're not just giving you a fish. We are teaching 581 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: you how to fish. And we thank Michael Leaboff so 582 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,399 Speaker 1: much for spending a couple of minutes with us and 583 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 1: hopefully making you a little bit sharper on the ice. 584 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for stopping by, Mike. 585 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 2: Thanks Dan,