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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast is presented by wind

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Speaker 1: is click on the Action Network link in this episode description. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get things started, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 2: forty forty five, fifty.

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Speaker 3: Get a check his clock.

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Speaker 2: Fall? Stop? Oh by godess, please stop hold that the latter.

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Speaker 3: It's not the sage on the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the sage of the fight.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by win Bets. The Week two

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Speaker 2: college football betting preview, I'm stuck in with me as

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Speaker 2: always as Colin Wilson, gearing up for a major showdown

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Speaker 2: in Feeville between Arkansas and Texas how are you feeling

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Speaker 2: on this fine Thursday evening? Nervous, excited, woo pig suey.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on campus, where we're gonna

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Speaker 3: spend the next three hours covering Hogs and Horns, the

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Speaker 3: old Southwestern Conference rivalry. Richard nixonan going to the game

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Speaker 3: of the Century in nineteen sixty nine, Arkansas going down

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and three with Matt Jones and Centric

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Speaker 3: Cobbs to blow Texas out of the water in their

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Speaker 3: own house down Horns. This rivalry has been going on

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Speaker 3: way before I was born, way before my eighty eight

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Speaker 3: year old grandmother was born. This is a huge week

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Speaker 3: in my neck of the woods.

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Speaker 2: I had four million dollars on you saying Southwest Conference

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Speaker 2: in the first yeah, thirty seconds, I'll be bringing up

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Speaker 2: that game. Any thoughts on that game right off the bat?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's some things going on with the

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Speaker 3: team that might explain some of the I guess we'll

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Speaker 3: call it rustiness. Sam Pittman wants to call it a rustiness.

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Speaker 3: We'll call it rustiness. I think there are some explanations

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Speaker 3: as to why there were thirteen penalties, why the game

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Speaker 3: was you know, so terrible from an execution standpoint with

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Speaker 3: the Razorbacks, and we'll see if they can resolve that

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Speaker 3: this week.

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Speaker 2: Are you gonna have a play on the game, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Took a one hundred and fifty seven. Sark is not

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Speaker 3: a fast tempo. At Pittman and Barry Odom, they know

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Speaker 3: exactly what it is that Sark wants to do.

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Speaker 4: Barry Odom is a joke.

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Speaker 3: We will have a spy on Robinson the entire game, now,

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Speaker 3: whether that's Grant Morgan or Bumper Pool after he comes

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Speaker 3: back from targeting, we'll figure it out. And then if

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Speaker 3: you look at the other side, yeah, we have execution issues.

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Speaker 3: kJ Jefferson saved our skin. And then there's the curious

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Speaker 3: case of Traylon Burks. Now, this is a guy all

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Speaker 3: American lists all over the place, proclaimed to be hurt

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Speaker 3: through a little bit of training camp. Injury was never specified.

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Speaker 3: He came out and posted some terrible numbers against Rice.

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Speaker 3: One rush for negative two yards, he had nine targets,

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Speaker 3: only caught five balls, not a lot of yards, two

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Speaker 3: drops with very uncharacteristic and then the one thing that

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Speaker 3: we're not used to with Traylon Burks is he created

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Speaker 3: three missed tackles and that number should have been way higher.

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Speaker 3: And so when you go into some of the reading

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Speaker 3: between the lines and the coach speak, Sam Pittman called

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Speaker 3: Traylon Burks's play rusty. He practiced Wednesday, he practiced Thursday.

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Speaker 3: Then he was just rusty, which makes no sense to me.

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Speaker 3: What's so or for a guy that's been on the

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Speaker 3: practice field every single day. My neck of the woods,

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Speaker 3: the state of Arkansas, it's still really small. We all

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Speaker 3: know each other's families. You shit Purple, we know it.

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Speaker 3: We're very aware of the fact that Traylon Burks has

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Speaker 3: signed multiple nil deals, that he has had a lot

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Speaker 3: of focus taken away from him off the field through August,

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Speaker 3: and that kind of seeped into the game against Rice.

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Speaker 3: There are certain nil deals that he had that are

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Speaker 3: now being put on hold his responsibilities to those. And

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Speaker 3: that's not to say he's the only player, right, I mean,

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Speaker 3: bo Nick says the sweet tea it's a bow tie

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Speaker 3: boom like a powder keg in your mouth sucking style.

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Speaker 3: The chicken places are going to get a hold of everybody.

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Speaker 3: Every chicken. Sam is gonna have representation in the SEC.

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Speaker 3: But Traylon Burks might have taken on more than he

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Speaker 3: can chew from an nil perspective, and that took his

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Speaker 3: focus off the field. So you read between more of

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Speaker 3: Sam Pittman. Two hundred pound freshman back AJ Green is

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Speaker 3: getting a bunch of reps out of the backfield in practice.

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Speaker 3: I don't think Traylon Burks is going to be ready

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Speaker 3: for this game. If he does surprises me, we win great.

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Speaker 3: I like under fifth seven in this game. Sark is

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Speaker 3: not particularly fast. Arkansas knows exactly what they wanted, what

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Speaker 3: he wants to do. Odam has faced sarked the last

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Speaker 3: few years, and Odam runs a three three five and

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Speaker 3: goes into max protect against the explosive play. This is

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Speaker 3: an Arkansas offense that is not executing. Arkansas defense knows

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Speaker 3: exactly what they want to do against Texas. It's an

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Speaker 3: underplay all the way. For me, I guess the bypoint

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Speaker 3: for Arkansas seven and a half. But you need your

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Speaker 3: eyes on Burks and remember this too. I said this

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Speaker 3: on the podcast last week. Sam Pittman is pissed with

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Speaker 3: this team because they get off to slow starts. So

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Speaker 3: as much as I have sat here and watched a

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Speaker 3: three and a half turn into four and a half,

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Speaker 3: turn into five, turnto six, tur into seven. As the

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Speaker 3: market hammers this number, I realize in the back of

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Speaker 3: my head that unless you're betting more than one thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars on the live line, you can absolutely go in

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Speaker 3: and get Arkansas after the first series when they don't score.

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Speaker 2: Again, betting Arkansas plus seven and a half. So we

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Speaker 2: had a lot to get to today. Obviously, we'll talk

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Speaker 2: to Matts c Ass, we'll talk the marquee matchups of

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Speaker 2: the weekend. It's not the greatest weekend in college football.

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Speaker 2: After last weekend Week two, there's kind of a lull,

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Speaker 2: but we bets. Who cares. We just try to find winners.

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Speaker 2: And whenever you think it's going to be a boring weekend,

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Speaker 2: that means, you know, Mercer is going to beat Alabama.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk Tin tin Horn later. Then we'll get to

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Speaker 2: you know, some Friday night lights, our favorite bets of

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Speaker 2: the weekend. Favorite Under all, we had a lot to

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Speaker 2: get there. Let's just hop right into it. With our

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Speaker 2: first segment, look Ahead or look.

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Speaker 4: Away, Hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 3: Is it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: So we always like to start by not looking at

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Speaker 2: this week, but next week and seeing which teams are

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Speaker 2: potentially going to get caught looking ahead, whether it's from

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Speaker 2: preparation or mentally, and maybe it leads to them, you know,

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Speaker 2: taking the foot off the gas or pulling their starters

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Speaker 2: a little sooner. We've seen that already happen quite a

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Speaker 2: few times this season. Three games stick out this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the aforementioned Alabama. So Alabama travels to

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Speaker 2: Gainesville next weekend. Well, first, Florida has to visit South Florida,

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Speaker 2: the first time that these two teams will ever meet

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Speaker 2: in South Florida. They meant, I think in like twenty

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Speaker 2: ten or eleven in Gainesville, but South Florida is a

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Speaker 2: twenty eight and a half.

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Speaker 3: Point home dog.

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Speaker 2: They were embarrassed in their opener against NC State that

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Speaker 2: lost forty five nothing. They give up three hundred yards rushing,

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Speaker 2: which is not a good sign when you're about to

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Speaker 2: play Florida, who ran for four hundred yards against Florida Atlantic.

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Speaker 2: And it looks like Dan Mullen has completely changed his

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Speaker 2: offense to being after losing all the weapons and Kyle

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Speaker 2: trst to a rush focused offense. Emery Jones can run.

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Speaker 2: This kid Richardson that came in might be a star quarterback.

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Speaker 2: He was electric. A lot of Florida fens are calling

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Speaker 2: for him to be quarterback. Sadly, I had to take

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Speaker 2: South Florida here.

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Speaker 3: It's awful.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's not much the like about the defense.

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Speaker 2: The defensive line is brutal, which is why they can't

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Speaker 2: defend the run. CADE four and is awful at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: The UNC highly talented transfer or x UNC transfer. But

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Speaker 2: this line is too high on the surface. South Florida.

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Speaker 2: This is pretty much their super Bowl. A lot of

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Speaker 2: Florida kids. They had a couple extra days to prepare,

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Speaker 2: and Florida has Alabama on deck. So I very convinced

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Speaker 2: that Florida's gonna win this game. You know, they might

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Speaker 2: go very vanilla in the second half. They're not gonna try.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna show as little as possible with Alabama coming

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Speaker 2: to town next week. South Florida a couple extra days

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Speaker 2: of preparation. The number on the surface was just too high.

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Speaker 2: If I can get over twenty eight throwing this situation,

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Speaker 2: I have to play it. But things are bad at

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Speaker 2: South Florida. I mean I'll tell you. There's a site

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Speaker 2: out there for USF, the Daily Stampede dot com. There

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Speaker 2: was a post on there, we need to talk about

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Speaker 2: USF Part three. Actually no, we don't. And it's a writer,

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Speaker 2: Jamie Deverned, who basically said, I'm done. I'm no longer.

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Speaker 2: I've been writing for about South Florida for eleven and

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Speaker 2: a half years.

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Speaker 3: I'm done. I just I'm not.

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Speaker 2: I was supposed to go to this game. I'm staid.

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Speaker 2: I'm going in October to watch the Lightning. I was

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Speaker 2: supposed to go to Dallas. I canceled my credentials. He's done,

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Speaker 2: he's done with South Florida football. A lot of that

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Speaker 2: is doue with it. They're not going to the Big

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Speaker 2: twelve and like they've done nothing about it, and then

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Speaker 2: the program is just a disaster.

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Speaker 3: I think it's legit too. I think he's just done

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Speaker 3: and not writing anymore.

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Speaker 2: He said, I was looking on Google Maps for a

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Speaker 2: Salvation Army box near campus so I could ditch all

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Speaker 2: my gear. But yeah, it's bad, but there's value in

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Speaker 2: the number. It's gonna be scary, it's a great situation.

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Speaker 2: I'm riding with the bulls sadly, any thoughts, I am not.

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Speaker 3: Riding with the bulls. I mean, I know South Florida

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Speaker 3: was blanked by NCA State. They had a standard down

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Speaker 3: success rate of twenty percent less than the national average.

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Speaker 3: They allowed seven tackles for loss and had eight point

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Speaker 3: three yards to go as an average on third down. Now,

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Speaker 3: they did face INCY State. That's a good team. So

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Speaker 3: you say, we can't take this away, But I mean

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Speaker 3: South Florida was horrible last year in this new coaching tenure,

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Speaker 3: and quarterbacks Timmy McLain and Cape Forton combined for just

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Speaker 3: fourteen to thirty three passes and three interceptions. You know,

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Speaker 3: if you can get anything out of this offense, and

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Speaker 3: I think what's important. We talked about redemption angles for

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Speaker 3: certain coaching staffs and certain players after a terrible twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty or you know, COVID pandemic and everything, and Todd

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Speaker 3: Grantham is one of those coaches, one of those coordinators

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Speaker 3: that needs sort of a redemption year. Florida was one

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Speaker 3: of the worst teams in the nation at stopping third downs,

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Speaker 3: and you know Grantham has stayed and flat out we

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Speaker 3: are playing more press coverage, We are no longer going

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Speaker 3: to play a soft zone and we're going to execute

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Speaker 3: that against South Florida. And you know, when I go

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Speaker 3: and I look at that, I see that Florida cruised

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Speaker 3: last week against FAU up twenty one to zero going

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Speaker 3: into the fourth quarter, and you know, Grantham, there's still

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Speaker 3: some things they need to work on for the Gators.

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Speaker 3: Florida Land had went five to twelve on third downs,

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Speaker 3: where Gators struggled in recent years in Florida Atlantic two

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Speaker 3: plus first downs on fifty five percent of drive. That's

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Speaker 3: well over the national average of forty one percent. So

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Speaker 3: that you know, the Owls were able to move the chains,

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Speaker 3: have success rate. They they won some third down more

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Speaker 3: third down plays than they should have. So you know,

219
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Speaker 3: Grantham is hell bent on shutting down a team, and

220
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Speaker 3: sadly that's gonna be a South Florida team who can't

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Speaker 3: go back to the Quentin Flowers days and keep their

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Speaker 3: writers to keep writing about them. But you're right about

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Speaker 3: the quarterback. I mean this, Anthony Richardson kid, I knew

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Speaker 3: the reason he didn't get the start is because it

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Speaker 3: was Emory Jones's turn. He's waited forever and Anthony I'm

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Speaker 3: sorry Anthony Richardson. Anthony Richardson kid when you said he's

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Speaker 3: electric is a freshman. But what he did on the

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Speaker 3: field at six four, two hundred and thirty pounds, he

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Speaker 3: had just you know, seven carries and one hundred and

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Speaker 3: sixty yards. What's important about that number is that only

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Speaker 3: one of those was scrambles. He had twenty scramble yards

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Speaker 3: and one hundred and forty on designed runs. So considering

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Speaker 3: em Mary Jones is half the size of what Anthony

234
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Speaker 3: Richardson is, we could see a flipped quarterback real soon.

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Speaker 3: So you know, this is a thing where Obama is

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Speaker 3: on deck. But Mullen also has this attitude if you

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Speaker 3: get you can't get into any Dan Mullen interview where

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Speaker 3: he's talking about dominating the state of Florida dominated and recruiting.

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Speaker 3: I'm dominating on the field, Hey, Central Florida. You want

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Speaker 3: to keep running your mouth will come and play at

241
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Speaker 3: your place. You want to do that? No, you don't

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Speaker 3: want to do that. He wants to own the state

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Speaker 3: of Florida. So I'm not getting into the habit of

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Speaker 3: fading Dan Mullen when he's taking on a Florida team,

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Speaker 3: especially against the South Florida team that hasn't scored yet

246
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Speaker 3: this season, and grant them who has an axe to grind?

247
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Speaker 3: Because teams just keep converting third down. So you know,

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Speaker 3: for me, this would be a Florida first half play

249
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Speaker 3: if anything.

250
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Speaker 2: Two other ones with it involved Mac teams. I love

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Speaker 2: I love mation. We have Buffalo traveling to Nebraska at Wydenbat.

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Speaker 2: Nebraska is a fourteen point favorite total fifty four and

253
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Speaker 2: a half. We also have ball State traveling to Penn State.

254
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Speaker 2: Penn State at Winding BET's a twenty two point favorite.

255
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Speaker 2: Penn State has Auburn on deck. Nebraska has Oklahoma on deck.

256
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Speaker 2: I look at both games and I say, look, Nebraska

257
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Speaker 2: has already lost the game. Penn State at a losing

258
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Speaker 2: season last year. Neither of these teams can afford to

259
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Speaker 2: be caught looking at Maybe they go a little more

260
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Speaker 2: vanilla in the second half, but they have both These

261
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Speaker 2: teams have a lot to work on. I don't see

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Speaker 2: any angle here. Pick one of the two on and

263
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Speaker 2: if you see anything, yeah, I.

264
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Speaker 3: Mean Buffalo plus fourteen is the play. It's creeping up

265
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Speaker 3: there against Nebraska. Nebraska's overlooked to this huge OU game.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if they're prepping or if they even

267
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Speaker 3: want to make the trip down. You know, I twenty nine,

268
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Speaker 3: I thirty five to make that game. But the Buffalo

269
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Speaker 3: Bocks score against Wagner is just impossible to get a

270
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Speaker 3: read on this new Bulls team. Seven and a half

271
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Speaker 3: yards per play versus Wagner's one point five. It was

272
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Speaker 3: an absolute stomp for Kevin Marks and Ron Cook, the

273
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Speaker 3: running backs of Buffalo keeping it and the Jared Patterson mold.

274
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Speaker 3: They rushed seventy one percent of the times, so twenty

275
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Speaker 3: one percent of the time. And that's good news because

276
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Speaker 3: Fordham got one hundred and twenty nine yards on the

277
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Speaker 3: ground against Nebraska. Also, you know, it's same old, same

278
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Speaker 3: old with Nebraska on hundred and nineteenth in defensive havoc

279
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Speaker 3: and one hundred and tenth offensively in havoc allowed. They

280
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Speaker 3: can't seem to take ball, take the ball away, They

281
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Speaker 3: can't seem to have ball security when Adrian Martinez has

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Speaker 3: the ball. So this is a number where myself and

283
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Speaker 3: a number of power rating people make it nine and

284
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Speaker 3: a half. So I think when this team gets up

285
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Speaker 3: a little bit too high, fourteen is going to be

286
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Speaker 3: the play. You know, the Penn State one. You know,

287
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Speaker 3: to be real quick at Penn State. I'm sorry to

288
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Speaker 3: be real quick on ball State. I mean, we know

289
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Speaker 3: Drew Plitt and his wide receiver there justin Hall. They

290
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Speaker 3: may have more career throws and receptions and I think

291
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Speaker 3: any other combination in FBS, and this is a really

292
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Speaker 3: good spot to catch a Penn State defense. Yes, was

293
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Speaker 3: fantastic against Wisconsin, but they were on the field for

294
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Speaker 3: like forty four minutes. So you know, what is the

295
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,360
Speaker 3: level of intensity and play that Penn State's going to

296
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Speaker 3: have when you've got overlooked the tank bigsby next week,

297
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Speaker 3: you have to look at an over. A first half

298
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Speaker 3: over I think is the best play because Sean Clifford

299
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Speaker 3: did not really have a great game. Now, Mike Youersich,

300
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Speaker 3: if you're looking at tempo and pace, they finished up

301
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Speaker 3: seventh and place per minute. Penn State is now a

302
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Speaker 3: fast up tempo offense, and we knew that they would be,

303
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Speaker 3: but the execution by Clifford just isn't there yet. And

304
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Speaker 3: we know, you know, he's a different there's a different

305
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Speaker 3: player in Shon Clifford. Between three scripted series and then

306
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Speaker 3: when they kind of call it on the fly and

307
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Speaker 3: so I think Mike Grisich needs a get healthy game

308
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Speaker 3: for Sean Clifford, I think.

309
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Speaker 2: This is it.

310
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Speaker 3: But you know, where is the defense gonna be after

311
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Speaker 3: last week's game and what they got next week? So

312
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Speaker 3: and ball State can sling it and they're gonna sling

313
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Speaker 3: it all four quarters. So I like the first half

314
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Speaker 3: over in that game. Yeah.

315
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Speaker 2: The tough thing for me is with these MAC teams.

316
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Speaker 2: You know, I go back to last week and I

317
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Speaker 2: played West of Michigan. I'm trying to be cautious with

318
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Speaker 2: them early on in the season out of conference because

319
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Speaker 2: the priors that we have last year are so out

320
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Speaker 2: of whack because they only played other MAC teams, so

321
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 2: you know, and and a lot of the lot of

322
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Speaker 2: them only played like three or four games. Some of

323
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Speaker 2: them only played three or four games against some of

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Speaker 2: the worst teams in the country. So from a power

325
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Speaker 2: ratings perspective and a priors perspective, it's it's difficult for

326
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Speaker 2: me to get a grasp.

327
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Speaker 3: On where these teams are.

328
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Speaker 2: So it's probably a pass for me, even though it

329
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,680
Speaker 2: is a pretty good situation. Ball State did look awful

330
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Speaker 2: last week against Western Illinois. You would think that you're

331
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Speaker 2: gonna to get their full focus here, but they might

332
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Speaker 2: just end up being overmatched in the trenches. That's what

333
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 2: Michigan did. The Western Michigan. They just they went big

334
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 2: and they were to do, but it's running at will

335
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 2: against them, and then they couldn't do anything to stop

336
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Speaker 2: Michigan's defensive line. However, that leads me to Toledo plus

337
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 2: seventeen at Notre Dame. Notre Dame has a game with

338
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 2: Purdue on deck. They just finished Florida State. It's a

339
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 2: pretty good situational spot here for Toledo for a number

340
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 2: of reasons. You look at that Notre Dame defense last week.

341
00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,280
Speaker 2: It was gassed in the fourth quarter and in overtime.

342
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 2: They and now they only have five days to prepare

343
00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 2: for this game. Meanwhile, Toledo, who played at home in

344
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,400
Speaker 2: a laugher over Norfolk State, had an extra day and

345
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,240
Speaker 2: a half of prep and rest. They rested their starters

346
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,200
Speaker 2: throughout that game. This is you know, we talk about

347
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,760
Speaker 2: this the year of returning experience. Toledo had more returning

348
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,840
Speaker 2: experience than any team in the country. Notre Dame bottom ten,

349
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Speaker 2: and you could see some of the problems with Notre

350
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 2: Dame last week. Notre Dame's offensive line looked really poor.

351
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 2: Last year, they gave up. They allowed a stuff rate

352
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Speaker 2: of fourteen percent against Florida State forty nine percent. I mean,

353
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: they're Kindle Williams average what two point six yards per carry.

354
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 2: They couldn't get anything going on the ground. On the

355
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,440
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, their defensive line, which their

356
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:28,359
Speaker 2: defensive front seven, which lost a lot, got pushed around

357
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,119
Speaker 2: a little bit by Florida State. They allowed overall, they

358
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,359
Speaker 2: allowed six yards per play over two hundred and sixty

359
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,240
Speaker 2: yards on the ground. Toledo can run the ball, Toledo

360
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 2: can sling the ball. Is the team that actually has

361
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,679
Speaker 2: a pretty good offensive defensive line for MAC team, so

362
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 2: I think that they can compete here. Notre Dame also

363
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: lost its left tackle to an injury. They lost two

364
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:52,160
Speaker 2: more linebackers to injury during the game. Toledo brings back everybody.

365
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,159
Speaker 2: I mean, Carter Bradley's a new starting quarterback, but he

366
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 2: started before Gus Bradley's son. They will probably not have

367
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,240
Speaker 2: Tyson Anderson, which does their star safety. He's an NFL prospect,

368
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,359
Speaker 2: will play at the next level. He's been dealing with

369
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:05,880
Speaker 2: a nag in injury. I don't think he's gonna play.

370
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 2: He wasn't on the depth chart, so that does hurt.

371
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,360
Speaker 2: But I think Toleda can compete here. It's a bad

372
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 2: spot for Notre Dame. They're still trying to figure out

373
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,360
Speaker 2: the Marcus Freeman defense. I think Toledo will be able

374
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,199
Speaker 2: to move the ball on the ground. I think that

375
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 2: they'll hit a couple big plays through the air, and

376
00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,640
Speaker 2: their defense has enough playmakers. They added ap they bring

377
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,360
Speaker 2: back everyone from the two deep. They added a Penn

378
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 2: State transfer to bolster the defensive line in Colepepper Johnson,

379
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 2: to a hell of a player up front too, so

380
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,880
Speaker 2: they have some talent and they can get after the quarterback.

381
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:39,719
Speaker 2: So I think that they're gonna be able to make

382
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 2: enough plays here to hang with Notre Dame. It wouldn't

383
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 2: shock me if this game was close. The Notre Dame

384
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 2: was eight to zero against MAC teams all time. And

385
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,959
Speaker 2: Brian Kelly's been great in this spot As a fourteen

386
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 2: plus point favorite, I think he's sixty four and two

387
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 2: straight up. He lost the duke in Northwestern. They're actually

388
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 2: the most proper fable coach to bet since two thousand

389
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 2: and five. It was a fourteen plus point favorite.

390
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 3: On the money line.

391
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 2: He rarely loses these games. But if you go back

392
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,879
Speaker 2: to twenty eighteen, similar situation, Notre Dame escaped with a

393
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 2: close win against Michigan and this game was on Saturday

394
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 2: and it didn't go to overtime. The next week they

395
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,400
Speaker 2: played ball State, another MAC team. They were forty two

396
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 2: point favorites and they won by eight. So don't be

397
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 2: surprised if Toledo is that right there in the fourth quarter.

398
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:29,719
Speaker 2: The only thing I'm worried about, you know, I think

399
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 2: the S line should be close out of ten, and

400
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 2: I really like Toledo's roster. The only thing I'm worried

401
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 2: about is just because the MAC my MAC priors are

402
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:42,439
Speaker 2: all off. But this with this situation with Toledo's roster,

403
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 2: with their coaching staff, I really like their defensive coordinator too,

404
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 2: who was the head coach at Mount Union, made a

405
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,400
Speaker 2: lot of changes last year, moved some positions around, which

406
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 2: I think will pay off this year after a full

407
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 2: offseason of that. So I really like their schematics defensively.

408
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 2: So must they just get manhandled here? I think They're

409
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:01,880
Speaker 2: gonna have thoughts.

410
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of interesting moving pieces that people

411
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 3: may not be aware of coming into this game, especially

412
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 3: when you get into the box scores of Toledo from

413
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 3: last week and listen, the number was available at nineteen

414
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 3: and a half before the Florida State game, and that

415
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 3: was a great time to fire in on Toledo, saying

416
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 3: that if things play out in the Florida State game

417
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 3: the way I think they will in this game should

418
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 3: come in around seventeen or sixteen and a half. That's

419
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 3: exactly what's happened. But we're not here to pat ourselves

420
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 3: on the back. We're here to make money, and so

421
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: the buying point on Toledo I think is to stop

422
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 3: at sixteen. I agree with you, I make this game

423
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 3: a lot lower, but sixteen is going to be the

424
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 3: last where I would probably take a ticket on Toledo.

425
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 3: But there are other betting deliverables that you can get

426
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 3: from this game. I mean, you can't take much from

427
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 3: Toledo hammering Norfolk State other than the fact I was

428
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 3: shocked that they ran the ball in seventy percent of snaps.

429
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they had thirty eight rushing attempts

430
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: and they didn't play tempo whatsoever. Very un Toledo like.

431
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 3: They still posted top twenty numbers on both sides of

432
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 3: the ball and finishing drive, so that was very Toledo like.

433
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: But this to Kwan, Finn and Bryant Kobak just posted

434
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 3: gaudy numbers running the ball and you know, receiving the ball,

435
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 3: and Finn actually had five passes.

436
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Finn's their their backup quarterback with dual thrash. They're

437
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 2: they're gonna bring him in for packages really fast, and

438
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,239
Speaker 2: he he looked really good at Carter Bradley's the more

439
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: traditional passer coaches on But yeah, Finn, I think they're

440
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 2: gonna bring him in and he's a good change of

441
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 2: pace keep Notre Dame's defense on their toes. I think

442
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: that they can use him effectively.

443
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 3: And I agree because if you look at what Notre

444
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 3: Dame did in that overtime win against FSU, they had

445
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 3: no rushing success rate on offense whatsoever. They ranked around

446
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 3: one hundredth in the line yards on offense, they were ninety.

447
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 3: And then we flipped to the defensive side of the

448
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 3: ball to you know, to tack on to what Finn

449
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 3: and Kobak are doing for Toledo. This is where things

450
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: got ugly. Notre Dame got a rank of ninetieth and tackling,

451
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 3: I mean, that doesn't sound like a Marcus Freeman team.

452
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 3: They finished ninety ninth in defensive finishing drives. That doesn't

453
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 3: sound like a Marcus Freeman defense whatsoever. So I know

454
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 3: it's a one game sample. I know it was down

455
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 3: in Tallahassee. I know these kids haven't played in front

456
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 3: of fans in a really long time. But FSU's exposive

457
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 3: plays and passing downs, combined with terrible tackling is what

458
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 3: almost got the Seminals that win. Outright now, weather is

459
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 3: going to play a factor here. Winds are blowing seventeen

460
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 3: miles per an hour angled to the northwest corner of

461
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 3: the end zone. You know the Irish, they did place

462
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 3: twelfth in SP plus Special Teams rankings this week. But

463
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: you know, I mean, listen, I mean, that's a limited

464
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 3: sample set. But we know this. They were awful last year.

465
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 3: But we know this for a fact. Jack Cone has

466
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 3: zero footwork. He has zero ability to escape the pocket

467
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 3: and elude anybody. This is a heavy tempo rush rate

468
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 3: coming out of Tommy Reese. This is going to be

469
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: a heavy tempo and if Toledo continues this heavy tempo

470
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 3: rush rate that they have, I don't know where this

471
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: came from. Like they were all passing team now with

472
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: seven state though, so I know they didn't have to

473
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 3: do anything. But I mean, if you've got the you

474
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 3: got Cobac and Finn back there doing these kinds of things,

475
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 3: the third down explosiveness, the passing downs explosiveness that could

476
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 3: get Notre Dame in trouble again. So I agree with you.

477
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: I'm on Toledo. I took the under, actually was betting

478
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: the under here as we started this. I wanted fifty seven.

479
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 3: It's not coming back to fifty seven. If the Rockets

480
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 3: aren't going to stay on the ground more than they

481
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 3: pass in typical years with Candle, then this is an

482
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 3: under team that the market just hasn't caught up to.

483
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 2: All Right, it's time to move on to our marquee

484
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 2: games of the weekend. We got three of them. We'll

485
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 2: spend a couple of minutes on each.

486
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 4: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

487
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 4: the marquee matchups we'll all end up bedding for Week two.

488
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: All right, Let's start with Oregon at Ohio State. This

489
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: is a new kick on Saturday, Ohio State. It's a

490
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half point favorite. This line was under

491
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 2: fourteen and it is three to touchdown mark over under

492
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 2: sixty three and a half. The big news here that

493
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: you probably have heard about all week is well Thibodeau play,

494
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 2: the star defensive end who has a sprained ankle, was

495
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 2: in a boot last weekend, came out of the game

496
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 2: and Oregon's win over Fresno State. Ohio State also has

497
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: some injury questions. Josh Procter left the game, but he's

498
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,239
Speaker 2: been practicing. I think he's gonna go. They Ohio State

499
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 2: played without their top two corners last week, in Seven

500
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: Banks and Cam Brown. I'm almost positive seven Banks is

501
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 2: going to start, which will be big against Pittman, Oregon's receiver.

502
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 3: I'm sure he'll be matched up with.

503
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 2: Him a lot. There was a lot of things that

504
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 2: I did not like about Oregon last week, and I

505
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: did not like Oregon coming into the season. First of all,

506
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 2: they couldn't run the ball at all. I'm not an

507
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 2: Anthony Brown truther. You know, without Thibodeau fully healthy or

508
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: maybe not even playing, c J. Stroud might have some

509
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 2: early Jitters again, but he at least was able to

510
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: settle in. I'm sure he has a lot more confid

511
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: and it's now I just don't think that, you know,

512
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 2: he's gonna make plays regardless. Every game, Ohio State's gonna score.

513
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 2: It could be on screens, it could be on slants

514
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 2: they have. It's just dynamic receivers and running backs. They're

515
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 2: gonna score. But they also can just I think can

516
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 2: dominate this game on the ground, where I think Oregon

517
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 2: is exploitable. So I think that Ohio State's gonna be

518
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 2: able to sustain drives whenever they want, and I don't

519
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 2: trust Oregon to do the same, even though I'm not

520
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 2: a big Kerry Coombs guy, and I don't love this

521
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: Ohio State secondary yet. But I'm assuming Procter and Banks

522
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: will play, which will help. And you know, but the trenches,

523
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 2: Ohio State's gonna have the advantage in this game. And look,

524
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 2: Oregon has team speed and they have team talent, but

525
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 2: it's just not on the same level as Ohio State.

526
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 2: I make this line right around two touchdowns. I'm I

527
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 2: you know this is there's probably there's probably be a

528
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 2: trendy dog Oregon catching fourteen and a half. I want

529
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: no part. What are your thoughts here?

530
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 3: You got to like the secondary better than last year's

531
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 3: version of Sean Wade right. The Tibadeau thing is quite

532
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 3: interesting because Day came out and his presser earlier in

533
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: the week and he said, we're gonna practice as if

534
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 3: he's playing. And I think that's important for the tackles

535
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 3: for the two teams, Nicholas Petite Freer and Dwan Jones,

536
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 3: who are now you know their Mumford has now moved

537
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 3: inside to guard, and these two tackles they were responsible

538
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 3: for half the pressures in the Minnesota game. So that

539
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: offensive line has got to get a little bit better.

540
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 3: But I don't think it matters. You know, the Ducks

541
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 3: defense had a great day and standard downs against Presnel,

542
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 3: but when it came to passing downs, the drives just

543
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 3: keep getting just were extended by Jake Hayner and Ronnie Rivers.

544
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: The Bulldogs finished with a success rate seventeen percent higher

545
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 3: than the national average and passing downs and that kind

546
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 3: of fits what you and I said over the summer.

547
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 3: This is Tim de Ruder, new defensive coordinator. He likes

548
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 3: to give up a whole bunch of yards. He doesn't

549
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 3: want to allow an exposed to play in the three

550
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 3: three five. And the issue is is that that works

551
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 3: when you're good at at limiting scoring attempts, which he

552
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 3: didn't do against Fresno. Fresno got to the red zone

553
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: five times and they scored on all five trips against Orgon.

554
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 3: That's just a formula that's not gonna work. So the

555
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 3: question is is can the Buckeyes get explosiveness against the

556
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 3: Ducks defense? And the answer is one thousand percent.

557
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: This is the best thing you try to if you

558
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 2: just say I'm going to not prevent I'm gonna prevent

559
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: Ohio State from getting exposed to plays. An exposive play

560
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: to Ohio State is a Trevion Henderson's a stuggu It's

561
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 2: a little swing pass, is a slam is a play

562
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: designer in the middle and then the receivers are gone. Like,

563
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: that's just not the approach you could take of Ohio State.

564
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: That was the play that I saw. I saw, that

565
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: was the play I saw last week.

566
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 3: I said, Organs in deep, deep shit. I don't care

567
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: how fast kate On Thibodeau, how healthy is I don't

568
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 3: care if he's one hundred and ten percent. When you

569
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 3: saw Trayvon Henderson take that dump pass from CJ. Stroud

570
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 3: and then go for an explosive touchdown, or you watch

571
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 3: Mayan Williams maybe run to the other edge. The edge

572
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 3: that has a problem, you know, setting contained. That's a serious,

573
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 3: serious issue for this orger in defense, there's so many

574
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: weapons on this Ohio State team. I can't see how

575
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 3: they don't get theirs. And I will join you on

576
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 3: the whole Anthony Brown. I mean, he had one really

577
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 3: exposive play and it was on a fourth and short

578
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 3: when he needed it and he cut a corner and

579
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 3: got the touchdown to beat Fresno State. You take that

580
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 3: out of there, and it was not a great day.

581
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: Take that run that was a thirty yard run. You

582
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 2: take that out of there before that and that won

583
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 2: the game. That was the game winning touchdown. At the end.

584
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: They had forty five carries for one hundred and fifty

585
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 2: yards against Fresno.

586
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 3: Right, it's not Oregon like. Yeah, I mean Fresno had

587
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 3: eight tackles for loss and the Ducks went just four

588
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 3: and a half yards on passing downs. So ask yourself

589
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: this question, what is the kind of offense that beats

590
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 3: Ohio State teams that go long verticals, you know, fly routes,

591
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 3: slant routes, deep in the passing game. It's not what

592
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 3: Anthony Brown is doing. He doesn't have the arm strength

593
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 3: to pull that off. I don't think these third and

594
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 3: fourth down conversions are gonna are gonna happen against the

595
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 3: Ohio State defense. I want to take an over thirty

596
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: nine Ohio State, and I want to take an under

597
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: sixty four on the full game total. There's a chance

598
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 3: for a middle there because I don't see Oregon getting theirs,

599
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 3: and you would say, we why don't you just take

600
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: the spread. I mean, you never know with this Ohio

601
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: State defense and the kind of changes that they're making.

602
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: Back towards by backdoor probabilia, Yeah.

603
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: There's backdoor probability. I am more comfortable taking an Ohio

604
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: State team total over and a full game under, especially

605
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 3: at a nine am Pacific Coast time for Oregon. Here,

606
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: give me some Buckeyes all day to score a ton

607
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 3: of points.

608
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 2: On the same page there for our second Marque game.

609
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if we're going to agree that we

610
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 2: did with Oregon Ohio State. I'm talking about the Sihawk rivalry,

611
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: Iowa State four and a half point favorites at home

612
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 2: against Iowa over under forty six. We've talked at nauseum

613
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: about Iowa State slow starts. Iowa has owned this rivalry

614
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 2: that won five straight you know over the since twenty fifteen.

615
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: I believe Iowa State looked awful last week. They barely

616
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: escaped Uni. Iowa continued its dominance. I mean, they won

617
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 2: six straight last year in dominant fashion and they blew

618
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: out in the ad. So thinking Iowa plus the points

619
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 2: there right, No, I like Iowa State here. I don't

620
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 2: know if you like it. Seems like everyone loves Iowa.

621
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: Trended dog alert. I think they're the UL this week.

622
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 2: But I went back and watched the Iowa State Northern

623
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: Iowa highlights. In most of the game, Look, they basically

624
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: did nothing, and they've done this before against Northern Iowa,

625
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 2: and they've done this before under Matt Campbell in week one.

626
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 2: But Charlie Coler number one, their tight end didn't play,

627
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: but they didn't call. They had one ball they threw

628
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: down the field. It was a beautiful pass that was completed,

629
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: but they did nothing. They were just checking it down

630
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 2: Northern I was selling out against the run, and Iowa

631
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: State said, I don't care what I show anything. We're

632
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: just being ultra conservative. I don't necessarily agree with that approach.

633
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 2: I mean, they could have lost, and like you already

634
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: have a veteran team, like everyone already has tape on.

635
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: You go out there and get into a rhythm, which

636
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 2: they haven't done in the past. But they weren't trying

637
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: to do anything. The defense was obviously excellent. They shut

638
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: out another team in the second half. In three of

639
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: their past six games, the opponent has not scored in

640
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 2: the second half. They'd scored a total sixteen points in

641
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: those six games. Pretty impressive. So we know the defense

642
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 2: is going to be excellent. But look, I just think

643
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 2: they'd weren't shown anything. And if you look at Iowa

644
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 2: last week, who we both liked against Indiana, they had

645
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: two pick sixes. Pennix was awful, and we said that

646
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: Indiana is not a good matchup to take advantage of

647
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 2: some of the weaknesses that Iowa has.

648
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 3: On its roster.

649
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 2: Well, Iowa State is they have a great offensive line,

650
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: they have a great running back that can take advantage

651
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: of what I think is a soft underbelly of that

652
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 2: Iowa defense. I think that we're just we're getting some

653
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: value with Iowa State here because of what happened last week,

654
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 2: because of what people you know, have know about Iowa

655
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: State in September, know about this rivalry. Iowa State knows

656
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 2: all that too. I actually make this spread. I mean,

657
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 2: I'm really high on Iowa State, like as a little

658
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 2: over a touchdown. I'm waiting, I was, I was waiting

659
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: for it to get down to three. What I might

660
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 2: do is just throw Iowa State and Ohio State together

661
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: in a money line parlay because this points are valuable.

662
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 2: I will say points are valuable in this game with

663
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: a total of forty five and to you know, two

664
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: plus defenses and a rivalry game. But I, like iwa stated,

665
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 2: I think there's value with the Cyclones, and I think

666
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: that they finally get this monkey off their back and

667
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 2: beat Iowa and get a big win in September. So,

668
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 2: having said all that, are you coming on the island

669
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: the Ames Island with me? Are you? Are you also

670
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: riding with the trendy.

671
00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 3: Dog in the iola the Ames Island, which is an

672
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: interesting There is definitely going to be a sea of alcohol.

673
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 3: A game day, So I don't know where you're gonna

674
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 3: find an island because a lot of people are going

675
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: to be swimming in that parking lot after the game too,

676
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 3: So we had that listen. I think what stuck you

677
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 3: just told everybody is something you should do as a handicapper.

678
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: Go down narrative Street and then punch holes in it.

679
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 3: The narrative is out there in two fronts. There's a

680
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 3: Bilo cell high for what Iowa State did in the

681
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 3: Vanilla game against Northern Iowa, and then there's that final

682
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 3: score that you see from the Hawkeyes against Indiana, which

683
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 3: is kind of beefed up by Riley Moss picks six

684
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 3: times two. And when you go down narrative Street, you

685
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 3: can understand why this has been all Iowa money. I

686
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,719
Speaker 3: was a little bit shocked to see that spplus had

687
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 3: this game as Iowa as a favorite. And for me,

688
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 3: this is really That's the reason nothing has come across

689
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 3: from me on the action app is because there are

690
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 3: sharps that believe in Iowa and there are people that

691
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 3: follows P plus religiously and would bet it no matter

692
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 3: what it is. But let me take a trip down

693
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,239
Speaker 3: narrative Street and tell everybody what I see, which is,

694
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 3: you know, the biggest issues I see for the Hawkeyes

695
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 3: or Spencer Patrice's ability to read a three three five defense.

696
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: So if you look back into the history of the

697
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 3: games that he's played, he has faced a three three

698
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 3: five defense just once and that was when half the

699
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 3: snaps against Minnesota they ran other schemes. But half the

700
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 3: time they run three three five, especially in long down

701
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: of distances. If you look at PFF, that was Spencer

702
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 3: Petris's worst graded game as a passer in the entire

703
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 3: twenty twenty season. He has not seen a three to

704
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 3: three five since a three to three five is designed

705
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 3: to disguise coverage, designed to disguise blitz, which Iowa State

706
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: will do. U They run three three five on ninety

707
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 3: two percent of snaps on defense. Twenty percent of the

708
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,240
Speaker 3: time they send blitz, generally when the offense is showing

709
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 3: eleven formation or they double their blitz rate when the

710
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 3: offense shows two tight ends. So what did I just say,

711
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 3: Iowa when they run twelve, you're gonna expect Iowa State

712
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 3: coming in heavy with the blitz when they run eleven

713
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 3: half the time. But really the point is is, you know,

714
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 3: Iowa's quarterbacks worst great game came against a defense last

715
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: year and he has not seen that defense set up

716
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 3: until now, until this game. This is a big jump

717
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: for him. He's going on the road. It's his first

718
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 3: road game, you know, as a college athlete at quarterback,

719
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: considering you know, limited attendance last year. You know, I

720
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 3: think a big thing that people are overlooking is that

721
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 3: Iowa State gets Charlie Kohler back, and that's important for

722
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 3: what Matt Campbell wants to do. And you look at

723
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 3: that score against Northern Iowa and you say, oh my god,

724
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 3: Campbell's fucking it up again here in September and Iowa

725
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: State it's going to be out of it. But the

726
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 3: truth is is that Charlie Kohler wasn't there and that

727
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: limited Matt Campbell's ability to call his favorite formations, which

728
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: are twelve and thirteen. That means two tight end sets

729
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 3: are three tight end sets. No one loves putting three

730
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 3: tight ends on the field and mixing up their routes,

731
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 3: their pre snap motion and confusing the hell out of

732
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 3: defenses than Matt Campbell. So the question is is the

733
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: only question I have about Iowa State is Breeze Hall

734
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 3: because there was talk about him being a little bit

735
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 3: dinged up going into the Northern Iowa game. He still

736
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 3: ran the ball, but that explosiveness isn't there and we

737
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 3: don't know why. But if it's still not there against Iowa,

738
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 3: they have to still attack the defensive line. If you

739
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 3: look at this Iowa defensive line, not only are they

740
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 3: weighing around two seventy two seventy five these days, but

741
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 3: the numbers that they posted against Indiana weren't that impressive.

742
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 3: Tackles yah Yaha Black and Lucas van Ness posted two

743
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 3: of the worst rush defense grades on the team. If

744
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 3: Breece Hall can't attack this defensive line, this small defensive

745
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 3: line in Iowa standards, then you can expect Campbell's going

746
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,399
Speaker 3: to line up in thirteen with his best tight end

747
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 3: and confuse the shit out of that Iowa front seven.

748
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 3: So I'm on Iowa State. Now. There should be something

749
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 3: said about market entry point, right, Okay, just because I

750
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 3: like Iowa State doesn't mean I'm gonna go out there

751
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 3: and start buying four and a half, five six whatever

752
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 3: is out there. I think market entry point is very important.

753
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 3: This is college game day. Iowa is taking in a

754
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 3: ton of tickets, a ton of mone but I'm stuck.

755
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 3: I'm all over Iowa State and there are x's and

756
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 3: o's on both sides of support that case.

757
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny that last week the market was all

758
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: about fading Iowa when we liked Iowa, and now it's

759
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 2: completely flipped and we're against Iowa.

760
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 5: Here.

761
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 2: I finally think this is time. We're starting October early.

762
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 4: People, it's almost b October.

763
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 2: We're starting it in the second week of September. Play

764
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: that clip back if they lose, and I'll eat my

765
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 2: words and I'm sure we'll have tons of voicemails from

766
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 2: oh folks, you know Iowa City and we work with

767
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 2: a lot of people that went to Iowa. So I

768
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 2: can't wait for that game. Let's get to our last

769
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 2: marquee game of the weekend end. Look, after last week

770
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 2: I had Western Michigan. We didn't talk about that game.

771
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: We have to give Bowdog Jim a couple minutes.

772
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 4: Bodog Jim has it under control.

773
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 5: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers, avoid it like the plague.

774
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 4: Let's check in with Bowdog Jim.

775
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 2: Credit the Boatdog Jim and Michigan. But I'm not even

776
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: gonna credit budg Jim. I'm gonna credit Mike McDonald and

777
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 2: the Ravens. Maybe the new defensive coordinator from the Ravens

778
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: got ll ip my Ravens.

779
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 3: I mean that you can.

780
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 2: Then I wonder if did anyone else tear their aco.

781
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 3: I'm recording this, but.

782
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 2: Washington will take on Michigan at win Bet. Michigan is

783
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 2: a seven point favorite over under forty eight and a half. Now,

784
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: I again, what can we take from last week? You know,

785
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 2: Michigan beat up on another directional Michigan school. But they

786
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: did look better in the defense. I like the defensive

787
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 2: scheme that they were running. They were really disguising a

788
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 2: lot of their looks. On offense, they kind of just

789
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: went really heavy at times. And we're just and just

790
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 2: overpowered to bad Western Michigan defense. But you know, mcnamurray

791
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 2: made some good throws. They did lose Ronnie Bell, which

792
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 2: is big their top receiver. The problem, I mean this,

793
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 2: on the surface, this number is crazy, it's crazy inflated.

794
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: But I don't know what.

795
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 3: To expect from Washington.

796
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 2: And here's why. I mean, Jimmy Lake doesn't say anything

797
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 2: about injuries. Last week. They had so many guys out

798
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 2: that it was insane. Their top three receivers are out,

799
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 2: and then Jalen Polk, the Texas Tech Trents for got hurt.

800
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 2: He's out a couple months bake. They had a bunch

801
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: of guys that never caught a pass playing receiver. They

802
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 2: have a good tight end, that's who they basically just

803
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 2: threw to. But at Dyl Morris. I'm not a fan

804
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 2: of Dyl Morris. It's why I was low in Oregon

805
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: and Washington compared to the rest of the conference. I

806
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 2: didn't believe in either Brown or Morris. You might even

807
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 2: see them go to Sam Heward. You're seeing a lot

808
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 2: of Hussey's fans call for Sam Hewart, who's the son

809
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 2: of former Washington quarterback Damon Heward and nephew of Brockiord,

810
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 2: who we both our son alike.

811
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:03,439
Speaker 3: As an announcer, shout out to Brock. Let me just say,

812
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: this is a matchup that the Pac twelve was waiting for.

813
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 3: And how in the world can you not figure these

814
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 3: Huskies out.

815
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 2: They've had some other injuries on the defensive side of

816
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: the ball. They just looked lifeless last week against Montana

817
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 2: in a bad, bad, bad, bad loss. And in that game,

818
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 2: Fontana beat Washington on their thirteen to seven. I mean,

819
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 2: it doesn't get worse from that, but the worse than

820
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 2: that washing. I mean, Dylan Morris was twenty seven to

821
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: forty six for two hundred and twenty six yards with

822
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 2: no touchdowns and three interceptions against an FCS team. Washington

823
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 2: rand the ball another thing, their senior running back wasn't

824
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 2: available either. Washington round the ball to McGrew. Washington round

825
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 2: the ball twenty seven times for sixty five yards two

826
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 2: point four yards per rush. I mean, their defense held

827
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: up as you would expect against Montana and hope they

828
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: only had Montenna only had ten first downs, but the

829
00:40:55,600 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 2: offense looked terrific. And I don't know what to expect here.

830
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 2: Who they're gonna throw the ball? They couldn't run the ball.

831
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: All their receivers are hurt. Are they gonna go to

832
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: the freshman? When we asked by when some of the

833
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 2: reporters asked, Jimmy, like you said, Dyl Morris is my

834
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 2: starting quarterback, and they said, well, we see he already

835
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: said Dylan Morris is our starting quarterback. He doesn't say anything,

836
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 2: so he just kept repeating himself. So I don't know.

837
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: I would think that if Morris comes out and throws

838
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 2: a pick early, you're gonna have to put the kid in.

839
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: So hard to project what Washington's gonna look like on offense.

840
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 2: The Michigan defense looked better. How much can you take

841
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: from that? Against Western Michigan, who I think does have

842
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 2: a good offense, there's gonna be win tier as well

843
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 2: to Saturday and the night game. The Washington defense does

844
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: have some injuries in the front seven, but they have

845
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,359
Speaker 2: two excellent corners, a couple of good linebackers to Jimmy Lake,

846
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 2: defense not going to give up a lot of big plays.

847
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: You know, this feels like it's an undergame to me,

848
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 2: throwing the wind as well, Washington. It's just I just

849
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 2: don't know what you're gonna get for the offense. And

850
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 2: if you get Heward in there, who knows how it's

851
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 2: going to go. Maybe he lights it up, maybe he

852
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 2: throws more picks, a kick it worse than what Morris

853
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: looked like.

854
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 3: Last week? What do you see here? Yeah? Are we

855
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 3: throwing the talent in on the season already and saying

856
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 3: throw Hubert in there, Let's just wave the life like this.

857
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 3: Jimmy Lake era is not going very well at all.

858
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 3: And you know some defensive coordinators were made to stay

859
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 3: as coordinator as their entire career. So we'll see how

860
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 3: this turns out. But listen, I favor a first half

861
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 3: under here. Put it in on the ash app wines

862
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 3: a major factor in this game, and the Washington defense

863
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 3: is proven against the pass. I mean, I know they

864
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 3: have all the injuries, but what are we going to

865
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 3: get out of Michigan here? They graded out eighteenth and

866
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 3: defensive passing success rate and third and defensive finishing drives

867
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,760
Speaker 3: against Western Michigan, so both defenses are expected to perform

868
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 3: here better than both of the offenses. There is no

869
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 3: running at Ronnie Bell in this game. That also supports

870
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 3: him under and they posted a very poor rank in

871
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 3: their game and finishing drives against Western Michigan, both in

872
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 3: the offensive and defensive side. So we'll see if they

873
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 3: can get that turn and around. But the tempo is

874
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 3: a concern if you're going to go on the over

875
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 3: with Michigan at any point. Michigan finished last week ninetieth

876
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 3: in place per minute, which tells me this whole Josh

877
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 3: gaddis calling plays I think that's over. I think Josh

878
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 3: Gaddis's time as being the play caller and the designer

879
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 3: of the offense that might be done. And then as

880
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 3: far as Washington goes the John Donovan play calling, we

881
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 3: kind of said it was elementary in our summer podcast preview,

882
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 3: this is too predictable about what you do in standard

883
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 3: downs and what you're doing in passing downs. Now we

884
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 3: know that there's just no explosiveness on this team. They

885
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 3: finished one hundred and twentieth in big play percentage big

886
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 3: plays being runs over twelve yards passes over fifteen yards,

887
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 3: and they finished eighty ninth and finishing drives and fifty fifth,

888
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 3: fifty fifth and place per minute. So there's no tempo,

889
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 3: there's no explosiveness, and there's no execution when they get

890
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 3: in the red zone. And that goes for both these teams.

891
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 3: So the number mathematically has moved well beyond first spread perspective,

892
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 3: beyond projections. But some teams, you know, sometimes teams are

893
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 3: just bad, and Washington, I think, is that team. It's

894
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 3: a one game sample set against Montana, but you know

895
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 3: when you come out one hundred and nineteenth in Special

896
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 3: Teams SP plus and you have a lot of other

897
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 3: things that are hovering around the top one hundred mark.

898
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 3: And I know it's a one game sample, but against

899
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 3: an FCS team, you should not be posting numbers like this.

900
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 3: This is a first half underplay for me. I'm not

901
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 3: sure how Washington contributes to the final score, So yeah,

902
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 3: that's it for me. This game is gross.

903
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the unders a look too, I mean, don't.

904
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 2: I can't see Michigan doing too much in the passing

905
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 2: game without Bell against two really good corners, probably a

906
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 2: top ten corner duo in college football. The only way

907
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 2: I see this going over is like if Washington's offense

908
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 2: magically transports, And the only way I think that would

909
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 2: happen is if Heward plays and he's great off the

910
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: bat and a first first action on the road in

911
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: the Big House on a Saturday night and all the

912
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:01,359
Speaker 2: receivers come back. But it doesn't look like that's gonna happen.

913
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 2: But Lake's not saying much. They're all day to day,

914
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 2: so I agree it might seem obvious, but I think

915
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 2: the look here is the under This feels like a

916
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: twenty to seventeen type of game. All right, let's move on.

917
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: To the best of the rest in our rundown. We

918
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 2: have three games to get to. I did want to

919
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 2: go through two games that involve service academies, one where

920
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 2: they're playing each other on what will be the twentieth

921
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 2: anniversary of nine to eleven, which will be a talking

922
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 2: point on Saturday. Thoughts are with anyone that was personally

923
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 2: impacted or lost anyone on that day twenty years ago.

924
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 2: Let's start with an Army team that took all of

925
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 2: my money last week against Georgia State, playing Western Kentucky

926
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 2: and Western Kentucky. Zappi hour is.

927
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 4: Here, Failely Zappi.

928
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 2: He threw for seven touchdowns against an FCS school, but

929
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 2: it was it's a coming out party for this Western

930
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 2: Kentucky offense that is basically Houston Baptist offense. We've talked

931
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 2: about this a lot complete one eighty. Now, when I

932
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 2: look at this game, the couple interesting. You know, I

933
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 2: have win bet. Army is a seven point favorite over

934
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 2: under fifty two. Now, you know, when I look at

935
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 2: that Western Kentucky box score from last weekend, obviously the

936
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 2: offense looked great. You have to tell yourself it was

937
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:29,919
Speaker 2: an FCS school and UT Martin but you know, I've

938
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 2: seen worse performances against FCS schools. The one troubling stat

939
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 2: when I look at the box scorer is that ut Martin,

940
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 2: you know, ran at thirty four times for two hundred

941
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 2: and one yards average close to six yards per carry.

942
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 3: Up.

943
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 2: Now you're about to play Army, so you know, I

944
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 2: think that the line is about right. But there's a

945
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,839
Speaker 2: The total has been just I have beld going back

946
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 2: and forth in the total, and I'll tell you why

947
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:55,760
Speaker 2: I think Army should be able to have success running

948
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 2: the ball. Against Western Kentucky, Armies was using tempo a

949
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,839
Speaker 2: lot more, which they never do. Early against Georgia State,

950
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 2: they were stating they were running, rushing to the ball

951
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 2: and then snapping the ball early when before the game

952
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 2: got out of hand. So I'm thinking Army might be

953
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 2: using more tempo this year. It didn't show in the

954
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 2: final stats because the game got the blowing out of

955
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 2: proportions and they went back to old Army. Tyler, one

956
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: of their two quarterbacks they have CoA starters, is also questionable.

957
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 2: He's like the speedy the speedy guy that met they

958
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 2: change of pace the better runner, whereas Anderson is the

959
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 2: better thrower can run also and run the triple option,

960
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 2: but that's something to keep an eye on. But you know,

961
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky obviously has this spread out offense. Army is

962
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 2: a pretty good secondary for Army. But they should have

963
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: some success throwing the ball on Army. But you know,

964
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: playing an Army over is always dangerous because Army could

965
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 2: have a ten minute drive and there's so little room

966
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 2: for er when you're going like over fifty two in

967
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,799
Speaker 2: an Army game. And here these two teams played each

968
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 2: other than twenty nineteen. Western Kentucky won seventeen to eight

969
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 2: at home, held Army to two hundred and eight yards offense.

970
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 2: Those are really good Western Kentucky defense. Here's what Tyson Helton,

971
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 2: the Western Kentucky head coach said. He said, you have

972
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 2: to army them back like we did. You have to

973
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 2: play ball, control the offense. You have to be able

974
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 2: to run the football and eat up the clock. Maybe

975
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 2: a boring football game, but that's the formula. Don't have penalties,

976
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 2: don't have turnovers. Have to be able to run the

977
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 2: football and hold the football, Helton said. This is from

978
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 2: the Western Kentucky Herald. Helton said he wants to establish

979
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,760
Speaker 2: the run and play at a slower pace. This week,

980
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,399
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky had just two drives eclipse three the three

981
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 2: minute mark against the Skyhawks. Meanwhile, Army dictated the pace

982
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 2: of its game, hold of the ball for forty two minutes.

983
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 2: So I don't know, like said, Western Kentucky's gonna go

984
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: back to this old offense. So they're just gonna run

985
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 2: the ball and go slow. So I keep going back

986
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: and forth because I'm like West Kentucky, this new offense

987
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 2: used to bath, the spread out offense. They're gonna score points.

988
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,839
Speaker 2: Armies be able to run the ball, But now Wester

989
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 2: Kentucky not gonna be Houston Baptist for this game and

990
00:48:55,160 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 2: try to out Army. Army, Hey, mats, understand that. Oh shit,

991
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 2: I can't hear you any thoughts here.

992
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, good luck with that. I put a play in

993
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 3: on the app on the openers. This one came out

994
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,839
Speaker 3: three and a half. Now, I think at six at

995
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 3: win Bett, this is a number where you kind of

996
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 3: take your projections and throw them out because the handicap

997
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 3: on Army is is what can you do in the trench?

998
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 3: And you're right. The Tennessee Martin rushing numbers against Western

999
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 3: Kentucky scare the hell out of me, for you know,

1000
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 3: both you and I love Western Kentucky so much of

1001
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 3: Bailey Zappy, and we think that they can win the conference.

1002
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 3: In Tyson Hilton, I think made a statement that the

1003
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 3: team's going to go twelve to zero this year. But

1004
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 3: this is a challenge. Out of the rushing attempts. You know,

1005
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 3: the what thirty three rushing attempts the Tennessee Martin had,

1006
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 3: five were stuffed. Five. That's a fifteen percent stuff rate

1007
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,840
Speaker 3: that is way less than national average. Tennessee Martin was

1008
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 3: able to run at will against this Western Kentucky defense.

1009
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 3: So that is certainly a point of interest because, like

1010
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 3: Stuck says, if Army wants too, if they have a

1011
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 3: three point lead or a four point lead, they will

1012
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:06,359
Speaker 3: go as slow as possible and they will stay on schedule. Now,

1013
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,439
Speaker 3: remember with Army that means you go on every fourth

1014
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 3: and one, you go on every fourth and two, it

1015
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 3: doesn't matter where you're at. Western Kentucky's defense is not

1016
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 3: currently set up to stop the run. Now, if they

1017
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 3: want to try to play Army ball with an offense

1018
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 3: that comes in from Houston Baptist that is used to

1019
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 3: throwing for six hundred yards a game, and they had

1020
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 3: possessions in the first quarter against Tennessee Martin. I don't

1021
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 3: think they last as longer than forty seconds. I've never

1022
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,840
Speaker 3: seen a team move so fast. I mean it slowed

1023
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 3: down in the second half, but that first half tempo

1024
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 3: was lightning quick, and you know it really showed in

1025
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 3: the results too. I mean, Western Kentucky was fantastic in

1026
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 3: finishing drives. I think they averaged five point five points

1027
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:45,479
Speaker 3: every time they cross the forty yard line.

1028
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,360
Speaker 2: There's teams that play really bad FCS teams every week.

1029
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 2: Zappi is efficiency rating the highest of any FBS quarterback

1030
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 2: in any game since twenty sixteen. Baker Mayfield did it

1031
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:02,280
Speaker 2: in the game against Texas Tech by Cliff Cliff Kingsbury.

1032
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 2: There Cliff Kingsbury defense Cliff Kingsbury, so yeah, he was

1033
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 2: obviously dobbing it look ahead.

1034
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 3: My issue is that Western Kentucky played forty five downs

1035
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,280
Speaker 3: in standard downs and it's only sixteen downs in passing downs.

1036
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 3: They were on schedule the entire night, so I'm not

1037
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 3: sure they know what it is to be third and eight.

1038
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 3: They averaged eighteen point three yards and passing downs, and

1039
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 3: I'm not you know, look what Army's secondary did. They

1040
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 3: shut Georgia State down. They forced turnovers and immediately had

1041
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 3: field position, you know, at the twenty yard line. It

1042
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 3: was a typical Army performance that you know, just drains

1043
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 3: the life out of you if you have a ticket

1044
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 3: on the other side. I go back to what the

1045
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 3: handicap on Army is, They'll choke you out with a

1046
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 3: three point lead, and if you can't defend the run,

1047
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:51,760
Speaker 3: they're just gonna pound the a gap all day. Western

1048
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 3: Kentucky can't defend the run. So while Tyson Hilton has

1049
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 3: a brand new offensive coordinator and a brand new quarterback

1050
00:51:56,640 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 3: and a whole new scheme on the offensive side of

1051
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 3: the ball to change everything up and say you want

1052
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 3: to out Army at Army, I'm not a believer. Now

1053
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 3: the number is worth talking about because again we're at

1054
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 3: entry point where it opened, where it closes. I suspect

1055
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 3: this number will close around six, six and a half.

1056
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 3: If Tyson Hilton and Western Kentucky are successful at all

1057
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,319
Speaker 3: and keeping this game close an out armying Army, you're

1058
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 3: gonna want to get that Western Kentucky six and a

1059
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,640
Speaker 3: half or seven. If it goes to overtime, I can

1060
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 3: say that if it gets over seven live, I probably

1061
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 3: will play back on the three and a half. If

1062
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 3: you're one of the ones on the action app that

1063
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 3: took one of these openers with Army, there's gonna be

1064
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 3: a window here to play back. But right now I'm

1065
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 3: comfortably sticking with Army. If you can't defend the run,

1066
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 3: especially against an FCS team, then I don't see why

1067
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 3: I would back you with my money.

1068
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:46,400
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more. All right, let's move on to

1069
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 2: the other game involving two service academies. That's Navy hosting

1070
00:52:50,960 --> 00:53:07,759
Speaker 2: air Force. Air Force won in a laugher against Lafayette.

1071
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:09,839
Speaker 2: I'm not sure how much we can take from that.

1072
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 2: In Week one, while Navy got blown out by Marshall,

1073
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 2: Navy's having all kinds of problems on offense really since

1074
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 2: losing Malcolm Perry. They did have put together a lot

1075
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 2: of drives. I think they had almost four hundred yards

1076
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 2: of offense against Marshall. They just couldn't finish drize and everything.

1077
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 2: It was just try to use different quarterbacks. I think

1078
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,479
Speaker 2: these four quarterbacks in the game, they really just can't

1079
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 2: settle on a QB, but they were able to move

1080
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 2: the ball a little bit. The biggest question here, I mean,

1081
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 2: and they're gonna be pissed maybe at home full stadium.

1082
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 2: You know, anniversary of nine to eleven is gonna be

1083
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 2: just a lot of energy in that crowd. And they've

1084
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 2: got embarrassed by air Force in Week one last year

1085
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: they lost forty to seven, so you know, and then

1086
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 2: they got embarrassed last week. You know, Ken is going

1087
00:53:56,600 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 2: to have his boys ready to roll. The question is

1088
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 2: what do we know about air Force. We know that

1089
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:05,839
Speaker 2: their defense got a lot of turnbacks who didn't play

1090
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 2: last year back their defense should be pretty good, but

1091
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 2: we don't know much about their offense, especially the offensive line,

1092
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 2: which lost all five starters, including two you know, pro prospects.

1093
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,479
Speaker 2: How much can you take when they play Lafayette. Both

1094
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 2: these teams are very familiar with each other. Usually when

1095
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 2: to Service Academy triple option Service guys play if you

1096
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,040
Speaker 2: let the look at the under, I don't. I wasn't

1097
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 2: around when the openers came out of open at forty five. Obviously,

1098
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 2: just bet that it's gonna come down to forty every time.

1099
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 2: Totals down to forty one now at win bet. This

1100
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,240
Speaker 2: line has come down a little bit to Navy plus

1101
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 2: five and a half. I'm really tempted to play Navy.

1102
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 2: I think there's value in the number. This situation favors Navy. Here.

1103
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a game where it comes down to

1104
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 2: just one long possession and you know who converts a

1105
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:53,919
Speaker 2: fourth and one or who you know who who gets

1106
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: a forces a fumble on a pitch. I think it's

1107
00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:59,720
Speaker 2: gonna be a game like that, low scoring, so points,

1108
00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 2: you know, catching five and a half with a total

1109
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 2: forty to forty one even more valuable. I'll be looking

1110
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 2: for the six. It's more of a gut feel because

1111
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 2: the Navy offense is scary. I mean, last year was

1112
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 2: their worst. They couldn't run the ball. The Navy team

1113
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 2: that camp couldn't run the ball, some of their worst

1114
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:19,240
Speaker 2: numbers ever. But I have a gut feeling Navy shows

1115
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 2: up for this one. Their defense should be pretty good,

1116
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 2: same with Air Forces. I have questions about both offenses.

1117
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:27,800
Speaker 2: I might take the points with the home pupp of

1118
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 2: a matchup of two triple option teams, and these games,

1119
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 2: if we've seen many times with Army Navy, can be

1120
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,959
Speaker 2: wars even if one team ends up being significantly better

1121
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:37,759
Speaker 2: than the other. What are your thoughts here?

1122
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 3: Navy comes out against BYU and the opener in the

1123
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 3: pandemic twenty twenty season. They get blown out fifty five

1124
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 3: to three. Turns out they were tackling tires, pillow cushions.

1125
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 3: Not sure what the hell they were doing in preseason camp.

1126
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,719
Speaker 3: What happened after they lost fifty five to three, if

1127
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 3: anybody remembers, they went to New Orleans to play Tulane

1128
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:00,120
Speaker 3: and they were.

1129
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 2: Nominated in the second half. They slept in the.

1130
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:04,880
Speaker 3: First half, slept in the first half as six and

1131
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 3: a half point underdogs, came back and won that game

1132
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 3: outright as a six and a half point dog on

1133
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 3: the road after losing fifty five to three. So the

1134
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 3: numbers that are sitting in front of me right now,

1135
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 3: the Navy put up last week against Marshall, and I

1136
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 3: got I hate people that are like this, like people

1137
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 3: that don't actually watch the games. But you know, there's

1138
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 3: this narrative out there that Marshall's not as good as that,

1139
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,280
Speaker 3: and Navies just didn't wasn't prepared. No Marshall is that good.

1140
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 3: Navy had a bad day, all right. I mean dead

1141
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,719
Speaker 3: last and coverge drankings one hundred and twenty seventh. In

1142
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 3: defensive havoc, it's red. Everything's red. All the stats are bad,

1143
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 3: doesn't matter which side you look. But believe it or not,

1144
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:41,720
Speaker 3: Navy plays twenty fifth in offensive line yards. They actually

1145
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 3: did get a little bit of movement in the trench. Now,

1146
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 3: they didn't sustain drives, and they didn't, you know, do

1147
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 3: much from that angle, but they did get movement there

1148
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:53,719
Speaker 3: with the trench and get the ball and keep the

1149
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:55,800
Speaker 3: ball on schedule and first and second down.

1150
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 2: And you won't have to worry about coverage against air Force.

1151
00:56:58,320 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 2: You don't have to.

1152
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you throw out the cover ridge stuff.

1153
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 3: You really look at the fact that, like Navy ran

1154
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 3: the ball eighty two percent, air Force last week against

1155
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: Lafayette ran ninety three percent. So you can see why

1156
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 3: the total is like falling, like it wouldn't be a

1157
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 3: shock to see this be ten seven, thirteen seven, something

1158
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 3: like that. And you know, in that same breath you

1159
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 3: hear Stuck say I'm tempted to take Navy into points. Well,

1160
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:21,439
Speaker 3: with the way this total is falling, that side gets

1161
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:23,920
Speaker 3: more and more valuable the more that this fall so

1162
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 3: I'm with you in the fact that, yes, Navy can

1163
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 3: bounce back, and I do see that their line yards

1164
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 3: put them. I know it's a one game sample, guys.

1165
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 3: Well in a month, well these numbers will be mean something.

1166
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 3: But when Navy gets blown out by Marshall but they're

1167
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 3: still able to post twenty fifth in the line yards offensively,

1168
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 3: that means they might be able to move the ball here. Yeah,

1169
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 3: I mean, I make it minus four. Spplus has this

1170
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:47,439
Speaker 3: at minus five and a half. I think the as

1171
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 3: we were three, yeah, yeah, I mean, as we record

1172
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 3: and it hits at six and win. Bet. I would

1173
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 3: not be surprised at all if this thing closes five

1174
00:57:55,960 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 3: maybe sub five, yeah, four, So that's guess. Yeah, all right.

1175
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 2: Let's move on to our last of the Rundown games,

1176
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 2: and that's the Holy War. Utah going for its tenth

1177
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 2: straight victory in the Holy War. Although these games are

1178
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 2: go go look at the history.

1179
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 3: Of these games.

1180
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 2: They're all they always are close. I mean, here are

1181
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 2: some of Utah's wins in that nine game Winster seventeen, sixteen,

1182
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 2: twenty four to twenty one, twenty thirteen, thirty five, twenty eight,

1183
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 2: twenty to nineteen nineteen to thirteen, thirty five to twenty seven.

1184
00:58:30,640 --> 00:58:32,000
Speaker 2: The last time they play they din't play Acus. It

1185
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 2: was in twenty nineteen. Utah did blow them out thirty

1186
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 2: to twelve. You know that's at when bet Utah's a

1187
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:39,600
Speaker 2: seven point favorite. This game is I think it's a

1188
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 2: nine thirty or ten thirty East and I really want

1189
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 2: to take Utah here. I think that BYU from what

1190
00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 2: I've seen watching some of that Arizona game, looking at

1191
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 2: some of the advanced stats, knowing some of the injuries.

1192
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 2: Their top receiver Romney's going to be out. They do

1193
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 2: get the Nakua brothers, a transfer from Utah, and Washington

1194
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 2: should be able to go at receiver to talented wide

1195
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 2: receiver transfers. Their linebackers should be back. Their corner I

1196
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 2: think probably still out after going unconscious on Saturday. Kicker

1197
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:09,920
Speaker 2: as if he They have a really good kicker too, BYU,

1198
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 2: look at the box score against Arizona. They lost the

1199
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 2: box score in that game. Arizona was the better team statistically,

1200
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 2: and you could say BYU wasn't showing much, but they

1201
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 2: were getting pressured the entire game against Arizona. I think

1202
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 2: that this sets up, you know, outside of like we've

1203
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:29,720
Speaker 2: lost nine roads at home.

1204
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 3: It should be an electric atmosphere.

1205
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 2: Utah is bigger, stronger, faster, more talented at BYU. I'm

1206
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 2: sure is going to drop eight a lot on defense,

1207
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 2: and I think Utah can just maul them up front

1208
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: and run down that Brewer can use his legs, they

1209
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:46,439
Speaker 2: can hand it off, and they can control the line

1210
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 2: of scrimmage. On the other side, they should be able

1211
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 2: to get pressure. They have some of the best linebackers

1212
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 2: and defensive linemen in all of college football. I think

1213
00:59:56,160 --> 00:59:57,920
Speaker 2: it could be a long day for Jaron Hall. I'm

1214
00:59:57,960 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 2: leaning Utah laying the seven. Yeah.

1215
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 3: I mean, if I had to lay it, that's the

1216
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 3: side I would lay. This is a game that I

1217
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 3: power rate at eleven, so Utah would definitely be the side.

1218
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:09,960
Speaker 3: But I'm probably going to veer off and take an

1219
01:00:10,040 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 3: over in this game. Utah has the ability to have

1220
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 3: an explosive offense and big play percentage. Like I said,

1221
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 3: big play is rushes over twelve yards, passes over fifteen yards,

1222
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,000
Speaker 3: almost everything Utah did and I understand the competition from

1223
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 3: week one, but they have the ability to be one

1224
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 3: of the most explosive offenses West of the Mississippi River,

1225
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 3: and that is something the BYU is gonna have to

1226
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 3: deal with from a defensive perspective. But both of these

1227
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 3: teams were excellent in finishing drives. Once the offense has

1228
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 3: crossed the forty yard line. In Week one, they were

1229
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:42,760
Speaker 3: able to get points up on the board. Stuff makes

1230
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 3: a good point about Arizona Arizona. I mean, that was

1231
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 3: really good on Arizona. I think Arizona is a play

1232
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 3: on team and a good call by our own Brett

1233
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:52,720
Speaker 3: McMurphy was. I think he was calling Arizona will before

1234
01:00:53,000 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 3: we even got around a week one. But I think

1235
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 3: what's interesting is BYU wasn't ready for that because the

1236
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 3: tempo was insane. Keep that in the back of your hat.

1237
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 3: That Arizona's tempo was like twenty one seconds per play.

1238
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 3: That shocked me a little bit, which is why I'm

1239
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,360
Speaker 3: on over with San Diego State as I watch it

1240
01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 3: continue to fall off the opener forty eight. No, I

1241
01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:16,080
Speaker 3: can't believe I did it again, man, So anyway, I

1242
01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:18,000
Speaker 3: did it again. I like the over in his game.

1243
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 2: I might come in and bet the San Diego State

1244
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 2: over if it hits forty four and a half.

1245
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 3: Because I know that it'll end to forty five, I'll

1246
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:26,920
Speaker 3: have to hit it again. Utah has the ability to

1247
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 3: have and have explosive plays BYU's defense not expected to

1248
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 3: be able to contain that. That's why I do favorite

1249
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:37,000
Speaker 3: Utah on the side power rated at eleven, it's a

1250
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,920
Speaker 3: total that I make at fifty four. The number does

1251
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 3: what the one I probably should hit here as we're talking,

1252
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 3: because forty nine is turned into forty nine and a

1253
01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:45,959
Speaker 3: half in a few places. These teams are executing past

1254
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 3: the forty yard line, and I think that bodes well

1255
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:50,720
Speaker 3: for more points than usual in this kind of series.

1256
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to some FCS or no,

1257
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 2: there's quite a few FBS FCS matchups this weekend. Let's

1258
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 2: hit on one or two of them.

1259
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 4: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's time

1260
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 4: to play XC.

1261
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 2: Yes or no, I'll start. I'll mention two games last

1262
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 2: week we got, well it's tin Horn.

1263
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:27,960
Speaker 3: We get it for Alabama.

1264
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 5: You all don't remember the Georgia Southern game, do you?

1265
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 5: I don't think we had a guy on that field

1266
01:02:33,400 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 5: that didn't play in the NFL. And about four or

1267
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 5: five of them were first round draft picks and they

1268
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:39,720
Speaker 5: run through our ass like shit through a ten horn man,

1269
01:02:39,760 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 5: and we could not stop them.

1270
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:46,360
Speaker 2: Mercer will take on Alabama. I think Alabama's out there

1271
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 2: fifty four and a half, fifty five, you'll see fifty

1272
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 2: five point favorite.

1273
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 3: With a total of sixty.

1274
01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 2: But Alabama didn't win sixty nine nothing nice last week.

1275
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 2: Alabama didn't run for six hundred yards last week. Guess

1276
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 2: who did Mercer.

1277
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 5: Everybody gets all excited about the beginning of the season.

1278
01:03:05,720 --> 01:03:08,400
Speaker 5: You know, you get excited about getting married, all right,

1279
01:03:08,400 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 5: but after you're married for a while, you know you

1280
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 5: got to have a process and make it work. We

1281
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 5: need to have a process to make it work. And

1282
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 5: every game that we play, every game that we.

1283
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 2: Play, Mercer ran all over I don't even know they've played.

1284
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:27,040
Speaker 2: It's just says POI, let's see Mercer. I don't even

1285
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:30,240
Speaker 2: know they played. Who is this school? Oh, point University?

1286
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:34,040
Speaker 2: They be point that's right, Point University, sixty nine to

1287
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 2: nothing points. A miserable, miserable program. They've won twelve total

1288
01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:42,840
Speaker 2: games since twenty fifteen. Mercer runs like a funky offense.

1289
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:45,120
Speaker 2: You know, they have like it's like a spread wing

1290
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 2: and they have a like a like a scat back

1291
01:03:48,760 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 2: and they you know, they have like motion all over

1292
01:03:51,120 --> 01:03:53,200
Speaker 2: the place, and then they try to with like sweeps

1293
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 2: and jet sweeps and they try to tricky and go

1294
01:03:54,760 --> 01:03:57,400
Speaker 2: over top. I think they might be able to put

1295
01:03:57,520 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 2: a driver or two together and get to like the

1296
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,920
Speaker 2: team or fourteen late in the second half when the started,

1297
01:04:03,040 --> 01:04:05,520
Speaker 2: I mean, bamahas Florida on deck? Is the team total

1298
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 2: gonna be like six?

1299
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:07,520
Speaker 3: Don't ask?

1300
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 5: I know you would like to some kind of way

1301
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,560
Speaker 5: extract something out of this pipe that's not there.

1302
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:13,439
Speaker 3: It's not there.

1303
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:15,440
Speaker 2: I mean you can get you can get like three

1304
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:17,919
Speaker 2: hundred dollars down on these. But I'm gonna I'm gonna

1305
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 2: bet the mercer team total over. Let's go more of

1306
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 2: Alabama pain. The other game that I'm thinking about betting

1307
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 2: is Indiana, which is like a thirty two and a

1308
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 2: half point favorite. They are playing Idaho. Do you know Idaho?

1309
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 2: Idaho football did last week? I didn't even know they

1310
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 2: played until I was looking at this game. They won

1311
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 2: sixty eight nothing. Do you know who they beat? If

1312
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 2: you would have no idea, they beat Simon Fraser sixty

1313
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:49,440
Speaker 2: eight nothing. Simon Fraser is a Canadian football team that

1314
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:54,160
Speaker 2: was practicing and plays Canadian football rules and has never

1315
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 2: played college football rules.

1316
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:56,720
Speaker 3: That's who played Iowa less week.

1317
01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:59,080
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Idaho one. I didn't see the score

1318
01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:02,200
Speaker 2: anywhere until I look it up. But yeah, the Vandals

1319
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 2: who used to be FBS team.

1320
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 3: Patrino's still there.

1321
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:09,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, Patrino is still there. He as a quarterback competition.

1322
01:05:09,680 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 2: I was reading all about the Vandals. Yeah, they have

1323
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:15,360
Speaker 2: a quarterback compis one of these guys, Michael Michael Bowdery.

1324
01:05:15,400 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 2: Who's he used to play on an FBS team? God,

1325
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:22,320
Speaker 2: who did he play for yukon twenty nineteen? He was

1326
01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:24,920
Speaker 2: the quarterback. That's who Idaho is rolling with. But this

1327
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:27,480
Speaker 2: is a takeout your frustration, Indiana. And this is kind

1328
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:30,480
Speaker 2: of like Nebraska. After Nebraska lost, I would lay it.

1329
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:32,520
Speaker 2: I know it was miserable. Don't be fooled by the

1330
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 2: Simon Fraser score. Anything you want to mention it an

1331
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:36,400
Speaker 2: FCS quick.

1332
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 3: I think I'm going to be on Georgia Tech and

1333
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:41,720
Speaker 3: start laughing here listen, embarrassing loss for Georgia Tech and

1334
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:44,680
Speaker 3: Snorthern Illinois. Things are going downhill for the Jeff Collins era.

1335
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:46,280
Speaker 3: We just said it the other day when we did

1336
01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:49,120
Speaker 3: the recap and now they're running into a Kennesaw State

1337
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:50,840
Speaker 3: team that if a lot of people look at the

1338
01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:52,920
Speaker 3: service on this and say, oh my god, it's a

1339
01:05:52,960 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 3: Kinnesau State team that runs the triple option by Brian Bohannon,

1340
01:05:56,160 --> 01:05:58,720
Speaker 3: the coach that used to be tied to Paul Johnson's

1341
01:05:58,720 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 3: staff at Georgia Southern. And you guessed he coached at

1342
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:05,280
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech. And I bet bohannan for Kinnesaw State, really

1343
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:07,960
Speaker 3: wants to get some revenge here and this should be

1344
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 3: a great spot for the Owls to go in and

1345
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 3: shake things up in midtown Atlanta and head on down

1346
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:16,240
Speaker 3: to Dan Tannis at the Bloody Mary Bar. And no, so,

1347
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:18,920
Speaker 3: I mean there are things happening with Kinnesau right now

1348
01:06:19,560 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 3: that are really not good. Practice wise, things are going bad.

1349
01:06:22,800 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 3: They last week they played in nai A School Reinhart.

1350
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 3: They struggled Reinhardt Innaia. Reinhart has twenty four scholarships and

1351
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:36,040
Speaker 3: they came within ten points of beating Kinnesas State kept

1352
01:06:36,120 --> 01:06:39,880
Speaker 3: up with the whole game. Bohanna mentioned that Bohanna mentioned

1353
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:42,160
Speaker 3: that they have a ton of struggles on offense. This

1354
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 3: is like the practice report from like today, a ton

1355
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:47,320
Speaker 3: of struggles on offense. We're still missing assignments. We have

1356
01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 3: twenty players that didn't play against Reinhart last week, and

1357
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:53,840
Speaker 3: they're not going to play against Georgia Tech. Listen, this

1358
01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 3: is not the Kennesaw State that we are used to,

1359
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 3: you know, competing in the FCS playoffs, running the triple

1360
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:01,320
Speaker 3: and confusing the shit out of people. This is a

1361
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:04,880
Speaker 3: team that struggled with any I can't even believe we're allowed.

1362
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:07,360
Speaker 3: You know, teams in FCS are allowed to play teams

1363
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 3: at that level. So the number is floating around seventeen

1364
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:13,120
Speaker 3: and a half, it's already been moved on down. I

1365
01:07:13,160 --> 01:07:15,000
Speaker 3: don't think people are really looking between the lines on

1366
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 3: Kennesaw State here. This may be the stock dip on

1367
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:21,400
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech where you can buy and Jeff Simms is

1368
01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 3: going to play. He is healthy enough to play in

1369
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:25,680
Speaker 3: this game. I'm not going to sit here and try

1370
01:07:25,720 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 3: to tell everybody that it's pretty and that we should

1371
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,200
Speaker 3: enjoy this. But there is a dip in the stock

1372
01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:34,440
Speaker 3: that is the Yellow Jackets, and Kennesaw State is struggling

1373
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:37,800
Speaker 3: to beat inn Aia School. So Georgia Tech we'll see

1374
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:38,520
Speaker 3: with the number Lands.

1375
01:07:39,280 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 2: Is this in a weird way, Jeff Collins going for

1376
01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:48,000
Speaker 2: revenge against the Owls. No more Algus, only Owls fading.

1377
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:52,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't disagree from what you read. And

1378
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:56,360
Speaker 2: I saw that score with kennisal State, I didn't realize.

1379
01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 3: Do you know who's going on? Do you know who's

1380
01:07:58,720 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 3: running scout teamquarterback for Georgia Tech this week? Their defensive coordinator. So,

1381
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:09,040
Speaker 3: their defensive coordinator, Andrew Thacker. He was actually on Bohannan's

1382
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 3: staff in twenty sixteen, and so Thacker, like told the

1383
01:08:12,200 --> 01:08:15,080
Speaker 3: media in Atlanta this week, he said, I know exactly

1384
01:08:15,560 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 3: what how Bohannon is going to coach his quarterback and

1385
01:08:18,080 --> 01:08:20,240
Speaker 3: how he's going to coach that offense with the triple option.

1386
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:23,559
Speaker 3: So yes, he's not taking any hits. But the defensive

1387
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 3: coordinator is running scout team quarterback this week for Georgia Tech.

1388
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:29,599
Speaker 3: They're pretty serious about getting this win here.

1389
01:08:31,200 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 2: By the way, I keep in the back of my

1390
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 2: head all week, I am like, oh my god. I

1391
01:08:34,600 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 2: keep getting like shocked, like, oh my god, I bet USF.

1392
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 2: I just had thought about it again about South Farid

1393
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,040
Speaker 2: against the fun I'm not looking forward to watch of

1394
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 2: that game.

1395
01:08:41,560 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 3: But if you're sprighting with.

1396
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:45,320
Speaker 2: Me, I'll be I'll be tweeting, trying to tweet throw

1397
01:08:45,400 --> 01:08:47,760
Speaker 2: it all right, before we get out of here, there's

1398
01:08:47,800 --> 01:08:49,720
Speaker 2: a quick word from our friends at win Bet, who

1399
01:08:49,760 --> 01:08:52,360
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01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:54,519
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Speaker 2: one thousand dollars. One thousand dollars. It's probably more than

1404
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Speaker 2: Zaxby's is paying JT. Daniels, who may not play this week.

1405
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Speaker 2: There check out actually workout for more info there. So again,

1406
01:09:11,240 --> 01:09:12,599
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1407
01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:15,320
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01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:23,479
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1411
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:26,040
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1412
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:29,400
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1413
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:32,840
Speaker 2: Thanks to our sponsors and friends that win Bet. All Right,

1414
01:09:32,840 --> 01:09:34,599
Speaker 2: before we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1415
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:38,920
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1416
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:43,360
Speaker 2: All right, first down. It's not a great week for Weekday,

1417
01:09:43,360 --> 01:09:45,080
Speaker 2: and there's nothing on Wednesday, there's nothing on Thursday. We

1418
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:46,439
Speaker 2: do have some Friday night lights.

1419
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:51,439
Speaker 3: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts. Let's go play

1420
01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:52,160
Speaker 3: some footballs.

1421
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:54,959
Speaker 2: Give the people one bet and a one minute explanation.

1422
01:09:55,080 --> 01:09:58,679
Speaker 3: Why we're gonna take UTEP minors go minor nation.

1423
01:09:58,640 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 2: Mine your nation.

1424
01:10:00,640 --> 01:10:02,400
Speaker 4: We're talking minor nation.

1425
01:10:03,240 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 2: Out in the West Texas town of our past.

1426
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 1: Picks up.

1427
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:11,120
Speaker 3: Going up to Boise State, We're gonna put the theory

1428
01:10:11,160 --> 01:10:12,800
Speaker 3: to test that. I think that they can be an

1429
01:10:12,800 --> 01:10:15,519
Speaker 3: explosive offense, especially in passing downs. I think they can

1430
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:18,920
Speaker 3: get it down the field. Boise State in the box

1431
01:10:19,000 --> 01:10:24,080
Speaker 3: score against UCF was absolute garbage point seventy seven yards

1432
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 3: per play in running plays, twenty eight percent success rate

1433
01:10:27,960 --> 01:10:30,680
Speaker 3: in passing downs. I know it's UCF and this is

1434
01:10:30,720 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 3: a dropping competition, and they're at home on the blue turf.

1435
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,640
Speaker 3: But we I've been saying for weeks that UTEB can

1436
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:37,880
Speaker 3: pass the ball down the field. The number should be

1437
01:10:37,920 --> 01:10:40,280
Speaker 3: twenty one, not twenty six. Fair enough.

1438
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:46,280
Speaker 2: Second down, Let's go to our money line underdog.

1439
01:10:46,439 --> 01:10:55,000
Speaker 4: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1440
01:10:55,160 --> 01:10:56,679
Speaker 4: the money line parlay.

1441
01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:01,519
Speaker 2: Favorite money line underdog this week. I'll start. I'm going Troy,

1442
01:11:01,800 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 2: I bet them running the week. But then the app

1443
01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:05,519
Speaker 2: of plus five and a half, I make this line one.

1444
01:11:07,920 --> 01:11:09,760
Speaker 2: When I look at Liberty, that had a great year

1445
01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:12,599
Speaker 2: last year, but I was high on this Troy team

1446
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:14,759
Speaker 2: coming into last year. They lost four games by one possession.

1447
01:11:14,800 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 2: They were right there in a bunch of games. They

1448
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:19,560
Speaker 2: bring back, you know, a lot of returning experience on

1449
01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:22,240
Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. They did lose a couple receivers,

1450
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:24,720
Speaker 2: but they upgraded a quarterback they brought in. You know,

1451
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:28,280
Speaker 2: last year you had Free and Gunner Watson on and off.

1452
01:11:28,280 --> 01:11:31,519
Speaker 2: They were dealing with COVID last year to quarterback injuries,

1453
01:11:31,600 --> 01:11:35,639
Speaker 2: but they brought in a Missouri transfer who is much

1454
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:39,360
Speaker 2: more accurate. Just a big upgrade as far as passing ability.

1455
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 2: The upside of this offense is great. The offensive line

1456
01:11:41,960 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: should be much better. They have two all sun up performers.

1457
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 2: They bring back all five starters. The defense returns a

1458
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:48,960
Speaker 2: ton of experience, brings in a couple of transfers that

1459
01:11:49,000 --> 01:11:51,280
Speaker 2: should contribute. And when I look at this Liberty team.

1460
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:54,000
Speaker 2: You know what they do well on defense, They get

1461
01:11:54,040 --> 01:11:57,000
Speaker 2: after the quarterback and they can cover some. But I

1462
01:11:57,080 --> 01:11:59,639
Speaker 2: think this Troy team they can protect. They are great

1463
01:12:00,000 --> 01:12:04,280
Speaker 2: detecting the quarterback. Their offensive line efficient, quick passing attack,

1464
01:12:04,360 --> 01:12:05,760
Speaker 2: and the gates some of that and you can run

1465
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:08,280
Speaker 2: on this Liberty team. I think this Troit team, which

1466
01:12:08,320 --> 01:12:10,240
Speaker 2: wasn't good at running the ball last year, we'll be

1467
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:13,000
Speaker 2: able to run the ball against Liberty. And when I

1468
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:15,320
Speaker 2: look at this Liberty defense, look, they only got twenty

1469
01:12:15,400 --> 01:12:18,040
Speaker 2: points per game last year, a drop of eight points

1470
01:12:18,080 --> 01:12:21,080
Speaker 2: from twenty nineteen, despite losing seven starters.

1471
01:12:21,680 --> 01:12:23,599
Speaker 3: Dig into their numbers. Though I know they played three

1472
01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:24,679
Speaker 3: Power five teams.

1473
01:12:25,080 --> 01:12:28,360
Speaker 2: They held NC State to fifteen points, but I mean

1474
01:12:28,479 --> 01:12:30,960
Speaker 2: NC State had their backup quarterback. Look at the other

1475
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:33,559
Speaker 2: teams they played. I mean Iva Tech put up thirty

1476
01:12:33,600 --> 01:12:35,720
Speaker 2: five on on Coastal Carolina put up thirty eight on them.

1477
01:12:35,960 --> 01:12:38,439
Speaker 2: They have such misleading numbers. Here are the FBS teams

1478
01:12:38,439 --> 01:12:42,200
Speaker 2: they played. Think about these FBS offenses last year Western

1479
01:12:42,320 --> 01:12:46,200
Speaker 2: Kentucky they went out and got adopted Houston Baptist's offense.

1480
01:12:46,200 --> 01:12:51,280
Speaker 2: Thought battle was Florida International. Ul Monroe never led for

1481
01:12:51,360 --> 01:12:56,200
Speaker 2: a second. Southern mess at seven coaches last year, and

1482
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:59,720
Speaker 2: you mass, those were the FBS schools they played the

1483
01:13:00,560 --> 01:13:05,640
Speaker 2: so that's five of their ten regular season games. Oh

1484
01:13:05,760 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 2: and they also played North Alabama and Western Carolina, so

1485
01:13:09,560 --> 01:13:12,120
Speaker 2: there's seventy percent of their games. And then one of

1486
01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:15,720
Speaker 2: the POWERFI teams they played with, Syracuse, who had an embarrassed,

1487
01:13:15,840 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 2: embarrassing offense. So I don't think this defense is as

1488
01:13:18,520 --> 01:13:21,040
Speaker 2: good as their numbers dat. I think that they're being

1489
01:13:21,080 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 2: inflated in the market. I'm also pretty high on Troy

1490
01:13:23,320 --> 01:13:25,240
Speaker 2: coming to the year was a by on team for me.

1491
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:29,160
Speaker 2: I like Troy. I think they win this game out right,

1492
01:13:29,640 --> 01:13:31,680
Speaker 2: you'd be the Men of Troy and the Trojans, how

1493
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:31,960
Speaker 2: about you.

1494
01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:35,120
Speaker 3: I like Troy too. I took them a season win

1495
01:13:35,160 --> 01:13:37,240
Speaker 3: total over. So it's definitely one that we need to get.

1496
01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:41,040
Speaker 3: It is just not a lot of underdogs on this card,

1497
01:13:41,080 --> 01:13:43,160
Speaker 3: and there's a lot of small ones. Considering you know,

1498
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:46,160
Speaker 3: we didn't get the money line parlay home last week

1499
01:13:46,240 --> 01:13:48,320
Speaker 3: with Fresno. They came close to cash in a big one.

1500
01:13:48,760 --> 01:13:50,519
Speaker 3: Felt like I might need to go a little bit

1501
01:13:50,560 --> 01:13:53,360
Speaker 3: smaller here. I don't think we have a clear power

1502
01:13:53,439 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 3: rating on South Carolina. We have zeb Nolan coming in

1503
01:13:56,040 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 3: throwing four touchdowns against Eastern Illinois and we're rushing to

1504
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:01,160
Speaker 3: be a point spread of forty three and a half

1505
01:14:01,200 --> 01:14:03,240
Speaker 3: by getting forty six on the board, did not allow

1506
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:07,440
Speaker 3: a single point. I think the South Carolina defense legitimately

1507
01:14:07,479 --> 01:14:10,879
Speaker 3: put up good numbers in the box score. East Carolina

1508
01:14:10,960 --> 01:14:13,640
Speaker 3: has a shot here to win at home plus two.

1509
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:16,080
Speaker 3: Take it on the money line. Holton Aylor's is gonna

1510
01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:18,000
Speaker 3: the November. Holton Alors that we love to bet on,

1511
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 3: is going to show up here against the South Carolina

1512
01:14:20,600 --> 01:14:24,719
Speaker 3: team that created zero having against Eastern Illinois, no tackles

1513
01:14:24,760 --> 01:14:26,800
Speaker 3: for loss, they didn't have any sacks, they didn't have

1514
01:14:26,920 --> 01:14:30,000
Speaker 3: they didn't do anything to affect the play of Eastern Illinois.

1515
01:14:30,200 --> 01:14:32,719
Speaker 3: So you know that's going to be a problem against

1516
01:14:32,720 --> 01:14:35,960
Speaker 3: an Eastern Carolina team that generally folds against teams that

1517
01:14:36,040 --> 01:14:38,120
Speaker 3: can cause havoc. If you can't bring that, then the

1518
01:14:38,160 --> 01:14:39,880
Speaker 3: Pirates have a shot to beat you out right, and

1519
01:14:40,040 --> 01:14:42,599
Speaker 3: I'll take them at home in Greenville as a two

1520
01:14:42,640 --> 01:14:44,760
Speaker 3: point dog. Don't want the points. Let's do it on

1521
01:14:44,800 --> 01:14:46,040
Speaker 3: the money line and maybe.

1522
01:14:45,920 --> 01:14:48,040
Speaker 2: South Kina gets caught looking at head a little bit

1523
01:14:48,080 --> 01:14:51,680
Speaker 2: to Georgia next week. Yep as well. All right, and

1524
01:14:51,760 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 2: before we get to third down, favorite overdog. For those

1525
01:14:55,200 --> 01:14:57,280
Speaker 2: not familiar with the inside joke on the podcast, that's

1526
01:14:57,280 --> 01:14:58,120
Speaker 2: our favorite favorite.

1527
01:14:58,439 --> 01:14:59,880
Speaker 3: It's called the over dog parla.

1528
01:15:00,320 --> 01:15:03,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Iowa State. We already talked about it close. Yeah,

1529
01:15:03,320 --> 01:15:05,559
Speaker 2: you integrates one percent, I mean Ioa State.

1530
01:15:05,560 --> 01:15:07,120
Speaker 3: It's probably going to be the anchor that we talk

1531
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:08,920
Speaker 3: about in our money Line Round Robin when we do

1532
01:15:08,960 --> 01:15:11,920
Speaker 3: our Saturday morning program. You know, Yeah, there's so many

1533
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:14,040
Speaker 3: bad games. There's some games on the slate like Temple

1534
01:15:14,080 --> 01:15:15,720
Speaker 3: and Akron where I really wanted to kind of get

1535
01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:16,000
Speaker 3: into that.

1536
01:15:16,360 --> 01:15:19,160
Speaker 2: You're not take an acron No, no, no, I was

1537
01:15:19,200 --> 01:15:21,479
Speaker 2: stated it. It's clean sweep. I'm not You're look, you're

1538
01:15:21,520 --> 01:15:23,200
Speaker 2: staring at that. I'm not even letting you put it

1539
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:26,080
Speaker 2: out into right, I'm not let me put it out

1540
01:15:26,080 --> 01:15:28,280
Speaker 2: of the universe. Don't don't say it. You're not laying

1541
01:15:28,360 --> 01:15:29,120
Speaker 2: seven with Temple.

1542
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:31,639
Speaker 3: Not let No, I'm not gonna lay seven with Temple.

1543
01:15:31,680 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 3: But I will say they keep your eyes on Georgia.

1544
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:35,600
Speaker 3: I know what the spot is. I know that they

1545
01:15:35,680 --> 01:15:37,880
Speaker 3: just played the game of their life and uh, but

1546
01:15:38,320 --> 01:15:40,599
Speaker 3: at the same time, they didn't score any offensive touchdowns.

1547
01:15:41,000 --> 01:15:45,320
Speaker 3: This number should be above twenty four. Uh. The opener

1548
01:15:45,400 --> 01:15:47,120
Speaker 3: of twenty eight I thought was pretty bad. I played

1549
01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 3: it on the Action app. So my favorite overdog, even

1550
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:52,880
Speaker 3: if JT. Daniels isn't there, stetsn't Beennett has plenty of

1551
01:15:53,000 --> 01:15:56,280
Speaker 3: experience and we haven't identified you know who the four

1552
01:15:56,320 --> 01:15:59,000
Speaker 3: to six players are that have COVID. But assuming the

1553
01:15:59,080 --> 01:16:01,920
Speaker 3: offensive line is there, assuming those running backs are there,

1554
01:16:02,479 --> 01:16:06,280
Speaker 3: UAB is a team that has folded against Power five

1555
01:16:06,360 --> 01:16:08,920
Speaker 3: teams against the spread. Tennessee and Texas A and M

1556
01:16:09,000 --> 01:16:10,920
Speaker 3: come to mind. There's a couple others, like without looking

1557
01:16:10,960 --> 01:16:14,080
Speaker 3: at the schedule from previous years, Bill Clark does not

1558
01:16:14,320 --> 01:16:17,560
Speaker 3: cover big spreads against Power five schools. He dominates G

1559
01:16:17,680 --> 01:16:20,280
Speaker 3: five schools against the spread. But this isn't that spot,

1560
01:16:20,439 --> 01:16:22,720
Speaker 3: and I think you're gonna get value the more this

1561
01:16:22,840 --> 01:16:25,599
Speaker 3: bad news comes out about JFJG. Daniels doesn't play. That's

1562
01:16:25,600 --> 01:16:28,519
Speaker 3: gonna affect the spread. But they have an experienced quarterback.

1563
01:16:29,160 --> 01:16:31,000
Speaker 3: I think my favorite overdog is going to be Georgia.

1564
01:16:31,040 --> 01:16:33,400
Speaker 3: I had the spot, you know, after the game against Clemson.

1565
01:16:33,479 --> 01:16:35,960
Speaker 3: Remember they didn't score an offensive touchdown. They're gonna get

1566
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:37,640
Speaker 3: off the schneid here and get get some points on

1567
01:16:37,720 --> 01:16:40,240
Speaker 3: the board. And they can definitely do that with their backfield,

1568
01:16:40,280 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 3: and they don't need to throw a deep to do

1569
01:16:42,360 --> 01:16:44,479
Speaker 3: that against you AB, So give me Georgia is my

1570
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:47,320
Speaker 3: favorite overdog. That under is calling my name.

1571
01:16:47,439 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 2: I know it's probably a square I look, but those

1572
01:16:50,280 --> 01:16:52,280
Speaker 2: UAB doesn't cover against these powerfous goals and the games

1573
01:16:52,280 --> 01:16:55,800
Speaker 2: always go over. It's like thirty four to seven, all right,

1574
01:16:55,840 --> 01:16:59,400
Speaker 2: before we get out of here. Third down, our favorite

1575
01:16:59,439 --> 01:17:03,120
Speaker 2: bet of the weekkend I'm going to go with a

1576
01:17:03,240 --> 01:17:09,200
Speaker 2: team in your backyard. Tulsa Golden Hurricane first half plus

1577
01:17:09,400 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 2: seven against Oklahoma State. Couple things to keep in mind here.

1578
01:17:14,200 --> 01:17:19,080
Speaker 2: Tulsa obviously embarrassing loss last week against UC Davis. They

1579
01:17:19,439 --> 01:17:22,439
Speaker 2: lost this Oklahoma State team last year sixteen to seven.

1580
01:17:22,880 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 2: They actually were leading seven to three in the fourth

1581
01:17:25,080 --> 01:17:28,600
Speaker 2: quarter of that game. They Tulsa's, so they're out for

1582
01:17:28,720 --> 01:17:32,519
Speaker 2: some revenge here against big brother in their state. They're

1583
01:17:32,560 --> 01:17:35,040
Speaker 2: coming off a loss against an FCS team last week.

1584
01:17:35,240 --> 01:17:36,800
Speaker 2: They had a bunch of guys suspended who were all

1585
01:17:36,840 --> 01:17:39,000
Speaker 2: going to be back this week. I expect them to

1586
01:17:39,040 --> 01:17:42,040
Speaker 2: come out with their hair on fire. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State

1587
01:17:42,720 --> 01:17:45,400
Speaker 2: just a disastrous game last week against Missouri State. Now

1588
01:17:45,400 --> 01:17:47,840
Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders didn't play. I expect him to play, but

1589
01:17:47,960 --> 01:17:50,880
Speaker 2: he might not if he doesn't great. The offensive line,

1590
01:17:50,920 --> 01:17:55,920
Speaker 2: which lost Tevin Jenkins NFL was horrendous, horrendous. They couldn't

1591
01:17:55,960 --> 01:17:59,920
Speaker 2: get anything going on the ground against Missouri State almost

1592
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:03,360
Speaker 2: beat them. So I have major questions about this Oklahoma

1593
01:18:03,479 --> 01:18:07,240
Speaker 2: State offense. And on the other side of the ball. Look,

1594
01:18:07,400 --> 01:18:11,760
Speaker 2: they lost their star defensive end Ford for the year.

1595
01:18:12,560 --> 01:18:14,880
Speaker 2: Tray Sterling, one of the best safeties in the country,

1596
01:18:14,960 --> 01:18:18,280
Speaker 2: won't play in the first half. Another reason for betting

1597
01:18:18,320 --> 01:18:21,360
Speaker 2: the first half here because of a targeting call. So

1598
01:18:21,520 --> 01:18:24,600
Speaker 2: I think Tulsa really comes out here and battles. I

1599
01:18:24,680 --> 01:18:27,160
Speaker 2: think the line is a little too high. Uncertainty of

1600
01:18:27,240 --> 01:18:30,200
Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders, who hasn't been practicing on the COVID list

1601
01:18:31,120 --> 01:18:33,360
Speaker 2: only adds to my confidence here. But I think you

1602
01:18:33,439 --> 01:18:36,599
Speaker 2: get a max effort from Tulsa. I love the spot,

1603
01:18:36,680 --> 01:18:40,080
Speaker 2: I love the situation. I have lots of questions about

1604
01:18:40,439 --> 01:18:45,160
Speaker 2: this Oklahoma State offensive line. In particular, I think Tulsa

1605
01:18:45,240 --> 01:18:46,920
Speaker 2: can have a lot of success there. They get all

1606
01:18:46,920 --> 01:18:49,200
Speaker 2: their suspended guys back. I think this line is a

1607
01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:51,719
Speaker 2: little inflated. I'll take the first half thinking that Tulsa

1608
01:18:51,800 --> 01:18:55,360
Speaker 2: really comes out with their hair on fire here after

1609
01:18:55,439 --> 01:18:59,240
Speaker 2: what happened last week. Doesn't hurt that Oklahoma State won't

1610
01:18:59,280 --> 01:19:01,080
Speaker 2: have one of its best defenders in the first half

1611
01:19:01,120 --> 01:19:03,320
Speaker 2: as well. So give me Tolsa plus seven first half.

1612
01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:05,040
Speaker 2: What do you got favorite bet?

1613
01:19:05,720 --> 01:19:08,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, favorite bet. Let's stick with the biggest game of

1614
01:19:08,120 --> 01:19:10,240
Speaker 3: the day. It's gonna be Oregon Ohio State. We're gonna

1615
01:19:10,240 --> 01:19:13,960
Speaker 3: take under sixty four. Wakey, wakey, eggs and baky for

1616
01:19:14,160 --> 01:19:17,160
Speaker 3: Oregon playing at a nine am Pacific Coast time, they

1617
01:19:17,280 --> 01:19:19,719
Speaker 3: do not have the explosiveness to hanging with his Ohio

1618
01:19:19,840 --> 01:19:23,280
Speaker 3: State team whatsoever. Ohio State has the ability to push

1619
01:19:23,360 --> 01:19:26,559
Speaker 3: the ball on the ground against this Oregon defense, who

1620
01:19:26,680 --> 01:19:29,680
Speaker 3: is not a good rush defense whatsoever. They specialize in

1621
01:19:29,760 --> 01:19:32,600
Speaker 3: passing downs and getting pressure from the edge. I do

1622
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:35,240
Speaker 3: like Ohio State to win this game. I expect them

1623
01:19:35,280 --> 01:19:37,840
Speaker 3: to cover. There will be a backdoor opportunity, but it

1624
01:19:37,880 --> 01:19:40,000
Speaker 3: should be low scoring because once Ryan Day has a

1625
01:19:40,040 --> 01:19:42,479
Speaker 3: twenty one to twenty eight point lead, this is not

1626
01:19:42,640 --> 01:19:45,040
Speaker 3: an Oregon defense that is built to stop the rush.

1627
01:19:45,240 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 3: Ohio State can essentially sit on the ball, So give

1628
01:19:47,960 --> 01:19:50,400
Speaker 3: me the under sixty four in Columbus in a game

1629
01:19:50,400 --> 01:19:54,639
Speaker 3: where I expect Ohio State to absolutely come out explosive plays,

1630
01:19:55,280 --> 01:19:57,840
Speaker 3: get everybody's attention, and then just shut down this Oregon

1631
01:19:57,880 --> 01:20:01,040
Speaker 3: offense which is not built to go four verticals and

1632
01:20:01,120 --> 01:20:03,200
Speaker 3: attack this Ohio State defense, which is the only way

1633
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:04,000
Speaker 3: to beat the Buckeyes.

1634
01:20:04,960 --> 01:20:05,400
Speaker 1: I like it.

1635
01:20:05,600 --> 01:20:07,439
Speaker 2: Make sure that you check out all of our stuff

1636
01:20:07,479 --> 01:20:10,880
Speaker 2: on Actionnetwork dot com and the Action NETWORKAP. Also our

1637
01:20:11,040 --> 01:20:14,720
Speaker 2: live show. We gave up nothing but winners last week.

1638
01:20:14,720 --> 01:20:17,640
Speaker 2: Hopefully we can do it again this week except me

1639
01:20:17,800 --> 01:20:20,479
Speaker 2: trying to give out Miami. I'll leave my Carlin Saturday

1640
01:20:20,520 --> 01:20:23,840
Speaker 2: morning on the Big Bets on Campus Live show at

1641
01:20:23,880 --> 01:20:26,719
Speaker 2: ten am. Check us out pret McMurphy's thanks as always

1642
01:20:26,760 --> 01:20:30,600
Speaker 2: to Colin, Thank you for listening. Subscribe on Subscribe, Subscribe,

1643
01:20:30,960 --> 01:20:33,519
Speaker 2: leave a review, Tell a friend, telling enemy. Big Bets

1644
01:20:33,600 --> 01:20:36,080
Speaker 2: on Campus podcast where you listening to your podcast. We'll

1645
01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:39,000
Speaker 2: do our recap show that'll be out on Monday morning.

1646
01:20:39,479 --> 01:20:41,040
Speaker 2: It was out Tuesday this week. There will always be

1647
01:20:41,040 --> 01:20:44,800
Speaker 2: out Mondays moving forward. We'll recap the weekend. We'll talk

1648
01:20:44,840 --> 01:20:48,120
Speaker 2: about any weekday college football. We'll play your voicemails. Don't

1649
01:20:48,120 --> 01:20:52,320
Speaker 2: forget about the voicemails. N Bad Beats nine to five,

1650
01:20:52,520 --> 01:20:55,120
Speaker 2: nine Bad Beats. I'll tweet it out a weekend. Make

1651
01:20:55,160 --> 01:20:58,920
Speaker 2: sure you call, but we'll be back on Monday. We'll

1652
01:20:58,960 --> 01:21:01,280
Speaker 2: also do some give a so make sure you leave

1653
01:21:01,320 --> 01:21:02,760
Speaker 2: some reviews on the app. We've got some good ones

1654
01:21:02,800 --> 01:21:04,080
Speaker 2: over the past week, so I appreciate that.

1655
01:21:04,400 --> 01:21:05,200
Speaker 3: Thank you for listening.

1656
01:21:05,840 --> 01:21:07,360
Speaker 2: Let's have a big weekend and keep it rolling.

1657
01:21:07,439 --> 01:21:09,360
Speaker 3: We'll catch you all inter tears, peace out,