WEBVTT - Why Ethiopia’s Giant Dam has Left Egypt and Sudan Angry 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:12.239 Ethiopia has inaugurated a giant dam on the Nile River, 0:00:12.520 --> 0:00:15.680 a huge feat of engineering that the region hopes will 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:17.680 address chronic energy shortages. 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:22.040 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is not merely a national project. 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:24.880 It is a pan African statement. 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:30.320 It simplifies the scale and ambition of African lead infrastructure. 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:34.360 But the dam could spark further tensions with Egypt and Sudan, 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:38.320 who remain locked in a dispute with Ethiopia over management 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.319 of the river that provides fresh water to more than 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:43.320 one hundred million people. 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.960 Ethiopia built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to bring prosperity, 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:53.440 lights up the region and change the history of black people, 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:56.200 not to harm any of our neighbors. 0:00:56.520 --> 0:01:00.320 On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, look at 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:03.240 what this dam might achieve for the region and how 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:10.120 Ethiopia's dispute with its neighbors could play out. I'm Jennifer's 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:13.600 Abastaja and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.880 one story each week from the continent driving the future 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:21.600 of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:24.600 Before we get to our conversation this week. 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:28.720 Our Ethiopia correspondent Fasika tod Essay was at the inauguration 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:30.640 ceremony earlier this week. 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:32.320 Here's part of what she saw. 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:35.960 The dumm stunts about one hundred forty five meters high 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:40.600 and close to eighteen hundred meters long, featuring a concrete 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.640 gravity dumb design. The main and the suddle dumps have 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:47.880 been finished, and the installation of the thirteen turbines is 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:52.680 completed and now operational, generating a little over five thousand 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:56.960 megauto energy. The reserve has also captured seventy four billion 0:01:57.040 --> 0:02:01.240 cubic meters of water, creating an artificial and I see 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:05.040 that the spillways are releasing water allowing to flow downwards. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:09.920 Physica is joining me now along with Tarek Eltebloui from 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:13.280 our Cairo bureau. Thank you both for being here. Physica. 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.480 Let's just start with you. We heard your description there 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:18.680 of just how big this dam is. Maybe you can 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.600 tell us a bit about the project and just how 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:23.440 long it's been in development. 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.000 The construction of the dam was started in twenty eleven 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:31.240 with the hope of finishing it in five years, but 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:34.919 it has been delayed due to various reasons, including diplomatic 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.519 tensions between downstream countries so done in Egypt, and also 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:43.160 the mismanagement by the previous company that was overseeing the projects, 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:47.000 and also funding issues because none of the international lenders 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.560 were not willing to fund the project, so that way 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.440 damage the reasons that lead the project to be delayed 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.480 for more years than the expected five years. 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:59.600 So clearly it's been quite a long path for the 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.400 government and to actually get this up and running, so 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:05.920 it makes sense why this was a significant day for them. 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.280 What did they say on the day about some of 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.480 their ambitions for what this dam will do and also 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.200 what the economic impact of the dam will be. 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.239 It was portrayed by the primeister and also by the 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:22.480 government official who in attendance at the integration. Was the 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:26.520 inaugration of the dam is history for Ethiopia having the 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:29.919 largest African dumb at the same time financing it or 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:34.400 building a five billion dollars dump through domestic financing, So 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:36.680 it was a big day for the country. When it 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.760 comes to the economic impact, the first one is half 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:43.240 of itapest population lives without access to power, so that's 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:46.120 the first thing the dam will be doing, and giving 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:50.800 power to the community and also the industrialization. So last 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:55.080 year the industry sector grew by ten percent, So the 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.960 government hopes to feel those growing demand from the power 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:02.240 generated from the new DUMB. And also the Prime Minister 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:05.480 said it could generate up to one billion dollars on 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:09.440 a yearly basis from exporting power to neighboring countries. So 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:13.480 far it TOOPA exports power to Djibuti, Kenya and Tanzania. 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:17.359 That's the target. And also recently Topia starts springing in 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.279 bitcoin mining companies started using power generated from the DUM, 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:25.000 so that's also the expectation the government hopes to achieve. 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.039 Through there is inaugurted down. 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:31.240 And Physica you talked a bit about this, but there's 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:33.760 clearly been a lot of disputes on the way to 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.200 this inauguration, to this unveiling of the dam, and a 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:40.200 lot of that is centered around the Nile and the 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.599 countries that are along its path. What have the discussions 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:47.800 been with some of the countries along the Nile and Ethiopia. 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:51.640 Yeah, since twenty fifteen, the three countries have been so done. 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:55.800 Ethiopia and Egypt have been in negotiations on how to 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.799 operate the dumb. The negotiations started before the dumb was finished. 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:02.920 Part of the discussion was how to operate or how 0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:06.000 to manage the operation of the dum, especially the minimum 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.280 guaranteed the water flow that downstream countries would be getting from, 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:14.159 especially during broughd season. There had been discussions between the 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:18.839 three countries and several rounds of discussions, including US mediated 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:22.839 conversations and negotiations, but all of them didn't materialize and 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:26.279 the three countries didn't reach to an agreement. So I 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:30.599 would say the process has styled for a couple of years. 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:33.320 Which lead me to tak thanks so much for being here. 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:36.560 You are in Egypt. Maybe you can give us a 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:39.800 bit of history about the significance of the Nile for 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.240 Egypt before we get into some of the events of 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:42.760 this week. 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:46.279 It's obviously usually significant. I mean, Egypt relies on our 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:49.880 water for you know, especially ninety eight percent of its 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.360 water needs. You know, there's a saying in Egypt that 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:55.320 whoever drinks from the Nile will always come back. I mean, 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.440 that's kind of an entrend in the country. So the 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:04.440 idea that you know, there's the potential for shortfall for Egypt, 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:07.280 which is that to an extent, that's already experiencing that. 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:10.479 You know, it is hugely significant. I mean, as the 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:13.279 Presidency put it yesterday when they issued a statement in 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:17.560 a response to the inauguration, they deemed it an existential issue. 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.400 You know, it's really a question of life or death 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.560 for a country that essentially relies on the Nile water 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:26.400 for almost everything. 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.279 You mentioned the statement that we got from the Presidency. 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:32.520 Has the messaging changed from Egypt over the years or 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:36.640 does it remain consistent their concerns with this. 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:40.560 Dam You know, obviously the statements are all Calctian diplomatic language. 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:44.160 The most recent statement, which basically relaid a message or 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.040 a letter that was submitted to the Security Council, talked 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:51.360 about how Egypt pertains its rights to respond according to 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:55.120 international law in the UN Charter, and it came out 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:59.520 fairly forcefully against Ethiopia and what it dubbed intransigence on 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.040 the part of the government. There two effectively or actively 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.720 in agent negotiations that would yield to an agreement that 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:09.800 would more fairly, more eculatively distribute than a water among 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:11.200 the Anal Basin countries. 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:13.200 I want us to take a quick break and when 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:15.560 we come back We're going to talk a bit more 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.960 about Egypt and potentially what the next steps could be, and. 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:21.120 Even bringing in Sudan. We'll be right back. 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:29.600 Welcome back today on the podcast, we're talking about that 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:33.760 great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which hopes to provide some five 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:37.880 thousand megawatts of energy to the Horn of Africa Region FASIKA. 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:41.560 Today and Direct al TABLAWI are still with Meterrec. I 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.000 wanted to stick with you because you were talking about 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:46.960 potentially discussions that could. 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:47.840 Happen moving forward. 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:52.240 What's been interesting has been Egypt and Sudan sort of 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:56.000 banding together against the dam. Do we have any sense 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:59.160 of what the next steps look like for these two 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:02.160 countries and their discussions are lack thereof. 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:05.240 With Ethiopia, I think the focus right now on the 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:08.640 part of Egypt and sensibly also Sudan is really to 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:13.200 pursue the diplomatic channels that are available to the international efforts. 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:16.000 I mean, as I mentioned, they they've taken the issue, 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:18.360 you know, presented it to the Security Council and the 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:22.360 hopes obviously that perhaps the Council would convene a special 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.480 session to discuss it. You know, behind that, you know 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:27.280 what we've been seeing on a part of Egypt is 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:30.760 really a much stronger or much more active engagement on 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:34.040 the on its part with its African neighbors, especially the 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:37.000 you know, the Horne of Africa, and in essence, I 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:38.560 mean what they're trying to do is to draw in 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:42.040 those countries that were previously aligned with Ethiopia, you know, 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:44.120 more on their side. I mean, Egypt had a long 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:46.559 history in Africa under Gamla than Nasser back in the 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.320 fifties and sixties. You know, it is very actively engaged. 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:54.640 And then that they really withdrew from that scene, you know, 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.920 under Sadded and then subsequently mob Arc and I think 0:08:57.960 --> 0:08:59.719 they've realized that I was in a state, you know, 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:02.040 in the sense that it opened the door for Ethiopia 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:06.160 to start rallying or building alliances or exerting its own 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:09.880 influence there at the expense of Egypt. So you know, 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.120 he's stepping back into the game a bit later, you know, 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:16.920 starting maybe twenty nineteen is when they really actively done 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:21.280 some kind of outreach with countries like eure Atria, Somalia. 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:24.760 Last month, the Uganda, the president was in Cairo meeting 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:28.000 with President Cci, you know, and a big part of 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:31.880 their talks focused on the Nile, and obviously Egypt hopes 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:34.840 that Uganda would kind of press the issue between us, 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.400 you know, before a seven member committee that would look 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.800 into trying to find a way of pressure or to 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:45.120 convince Ethiopia to step back in with some kind of 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:49.240 serious proposal that would mitigate the potential impact, you know, 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:53.040 should another significant drought arise. I mean, that's that's really 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.199 the description concern is what would happen if you have 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:59.480 an extended drought season or drought period for several years. 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.800 You know, it has tremendous domestic political significance. I mean, 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.040 the fact that Egypt hasn't been able to brok or 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:10.120 reach an agreement with ev ops Is is problematic for 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:12.880 the government because it affects a nation about one hundred 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:15.560 and eight million people manufacturer and another ten million people 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:19.280 that are refugees from various conflicts in the region, you know, 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:23.640 who are basically dealing with a severe water shortage for 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.280 lack of a better word, I mean Egypt's under the 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:29.400 UN guidelines. I mean, Egypt is a water poor country. 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:32.120 It's it's the average per capital is about five hundred 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:35.520 meters compared to what it was back when the initial 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.240 agreements assigned back decades ago. 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.920 I think you're alluding to the agreements made from Britain 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.480 right allotting Egypt part of the Nile River. How much 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:45.959 weight do you think that will potentially carry in these 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:47.640 diplomatic discussions. 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:50.600 You know, I think what Egypt is looking for, per 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.599 se is something that allows the more equitable access to 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:57.839 the water in proportion to the country's domestic needs. The 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:01.920 Egyptian government, the presidency, there's all all along maintained that 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:06.160 Ethiogys are right to economic development. You know, it's everybody's right. 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:08.240 But at the same time, that shouldn't come at the 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:12.640 expense of another country, which is a serious blind. I mean, 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.959 it's not something you can make up for through desalination 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:21.079 plants or even upgrading technology or recycling water, especially when 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:25.600 the country's trying. Egypt is trying to increase agricultural land, 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:29.040 boost arable area so less than its reliance on imports. 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.240 And I'd like to bring Fasiica back into this physica. 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:37.400 How has the Ethiopian government responded to these latest legal threats, 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:39.240 because as we mentioned, this has been going on for 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:40.040 quite some time. 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.160 There is no direct response for the legal trade. But 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:48.679 the government has been justifying that the dum wouldn't have 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:53.040 an impact on Sudan in Egypt, saying that the dumb 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:56.599 has reached in its full capacity. It's the reservare is 0:11:56.720 --> 0:12:00.960 full now and there is no big impact that created 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:05.079 on Egypt and Sudan. That's the justification coming from the government. 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.040 The government also says that catching that amount of water 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:13.240 prevented Sudan from the recurring floods happening in the country, 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.080 So that's the justification coming from the government. But also 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:21.160 during the inauguration ceremony, the premise was saying Itopia doesn't 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:25.800 have an intention to harm both countries and the country 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.839 has a responsibility to protect those countries from any kind 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:33.240 of disasters or challenge them white face and. 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:37.079 Let's just finish on the inauguration. There was quite in 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.480 a list of attendees there heads of state from across 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:46.640 East Africa at the specific inauguration. Just to Trect's point earlier, 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.880 its seeming like Ethiopia is getting a few allies to 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.960 get on board with them with the benefits I guess 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.520 of this damn But did we hear anything specifically from 0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:00.400 some of these heads of state about the various aims 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:02.920 about the Nile River for. 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:07.079 Heads of state where there during the inaugration, and all 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:12.360 of them delivered speech during the inaugration ceremony, and one 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:15.719 of the three things they mentioned was cooperation between the 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:21.000 downstream countries and ensuring regional stability in the Horn North Africa. 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:24.079 And yes, obviously that was one of the reasons stressed 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:28.720 by Kenya's president with Dan Bruto and also the Somalian president. 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:32.560 The other point they have mentioned was benefit the East 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:36.080 African countries would be getting from the dump. So all 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.760 of them expressed interests to purchase power from Ethiopia in 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:40.520 the coming years. 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.000 So yes, and you can read our coverage of the 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:48.079 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:50.880 of the other stories we've been following across the region 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:55.240 this week. Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court began presenting 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:59.280 evidence this week to support their charges against fugitive Ugandan 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.959 rebel leaders Joseph Coney at the Global Court's first ever 0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:07.040 absentia hearing, alleging that he inflicted horrors on Yugone in 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:12.760 society that still echo two decades later, and Nigeria's currency unit, 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.080 the naira, has rallied the most in Africa this month. 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.320 It's been driven by high nominal rates and investor positioning 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.080 ahead of expectations that the central bank may start cutting 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.880 rates as inflation continues to trend downwards in the West 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.840 African nation. You can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:33.120 the Next African Newsletter. 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.240 We'll put a link to that in the show notes. 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:41.200 This program was produced by Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebayo. 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.320 Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:45.800 usually get your podcasts. 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.200 But for now, I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks for listening.