Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Ethiopia has inaugurated a giant dam on the Nile River,
Speaker 2: a huge feat of engineering that the region hopes will
Speaker 2: address chronic energy shortages.
Speaker 3: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is not merely a national project.
Speaker 3: It is a pan African statement.
Speaker 4: It simplifies the scale and ambition of African lead infrastructure.
Speaker 2: But the dam could spark further tensions with Egypt and Sudan,
Speaker 2: who remain locked in a dispute with Ethiopia over management
Speaker 2: of the river that provides fresh water to more than
Speaker 2: one hundred million people.
Speaker 3: Ethiopia built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to bring prosperity,
Speaker 3: lights up the region and change the history of black people,
Speaker 3: not to harm any of our neighbors.
Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, look at
Speaker 2: what this dam might achieve for the region and how
Speaker 2: Ethiopia's dispute with its neighbors could play out. I'm Jennifer's
Speaker 2: Abastaja and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you
Speaker 2: one story each week from the continent driving the future
Speaker 2: of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide.
Speaker 1: Before we get to our conversation this week.
Speaker 2: Our Ethiopia correspondent Fasika tod Essay was at the inauguration
Speaker 2: ceremony earlier this week.
Speaker 1: Here's part of what she saw.
Speaker 4: The dumm stunts about one hundred forty five meters high
Speaker 4: and close to eighteen hundred meters long, featuring a concrete
Speaker 4: gravity dumb design. The main and the suddle dumps have
Speaker 4: been finished, and the installation of the thirteen turbines is
Speaker 4: completed and now operational, generating a little over five thousand
Speaker 4: megauto energy. The reserve has also captured seventy four billion
Speaker 4: cubic meters of water, creating an artificial and I see
Speaker 4: that the spillways are releasing water allowing to flow downwards.
Speaker 2: Physica is joining me now along with Tarek Eltebloui from
Speaker 2: our Cairo bureau. Thank you both for being here. Physica.
Speaker 2: Let's just start with you. We heard your description there
Speaker 2: of just how big this dam is. Maybe you can
Speaker 2: tell us a bit about the project and just how
Speaker 2: long it's been in development.
Speaker 4: The construction of the dam was started in twenty eleven
Speaker 4: with the hope of finishing it in five years, but
Speaker 4: it has been delayed due to various reasons, including diplomatic
Speaker 4: tensions between downstream countries so done in Egypt, and also
Speaker 4: the mismanagement by the previous company that was overseeing the projects,
Speaker 4: and also funding issues because none of the international lenders
Speaker 4: were not willing to fund the project, so that way
Speaker 4: damage the reasons that lead the project to be delayed
Speaker 4: for more years than the expected five years.
Speaker 2: So clearly it's been quite a long path for the
Speaker 2: government and to actually get this up and running, so
Speaker 2: it makes sense why this was a significant day for them.
Speaker 2: What did they say on the day about some of
Speaker 2: their ambitions for what this dam will do and also
Speaker 2: what the economic impact of the dam will be.
Speaker 4: It was portrayed by the primeister and also by the
Speaker 4: government official who in attendance at the integration. Was the
Speaker 4: inaugration of the dam is history for Ethiopia having the
Speaker 4: largest African dumb at the same time financing it or
Speaker 4: building a five billion dollars dump through domestic financing, So
Speaker 4: it was a big day for the country. When it
Speaker 4: comes to the economic impact, the first one is half
Speaker 4: of itapest population lives without access to power, so that's
Speaker 4: the first thing the dam will be doing, and giving
Speaker 4: power to the community and also the industrialization. So last
Speaker 4: year the industry sector grew by ten percent, So the
Speaker 4: government hopes to feel those growing demand from the power
Speaker 4: generated from the new DUMB. And also the Prime Minister
Speaker 4: said it could generate up to one billion dollars on
Speaker 4: a yearly basis from exporting power to neighboring countries. So
Speaker 4: far it TOOPA exports power to Djibuti, Kenya and Tanzania.
Speaker 4: That's the target. And also recently Topia starts springing in
Speaker 4: bitcoin mining companies started using power generated from the DUM,
Speaker 4: so that's also the expectation the government hopes to achieve.
Speaker 1: Through there is inaugurted down.
Speaker 2: And Physica you talked a bit about this, but there's
Speaker 2: clearly been a lot of disputes on the way to
Speaker 2: this inauguration, to this unveiling of the dam, and a
Speaker 2: lot of that is centered around the Nile and the
Speaker 2: countries that are along its path. What have the discussions
Speaker 2: been with some of the countries along the Nile and Ethiopia.
Speaker 4: Yeah, since twenty fifteen, the three countries have been so done.
Speaker 4: Ethiopia and Egypt have been in negotiations on how to
Speaker 4: operate the dumb. The negotiations started before the dumb was finished.
Speaker 4: Part of the discussion was how to operate or how
Speaker 4: to manage the operation of the dum, especially the minimum
Speaker 4: guaranteed the water flow that downstream countries would be getting from,
Speaker 4: especially during broughd season. There had been discussions between the
Speaker 4: three countries and several rounds of discussions, including US mediated
Speaker 4: conversations and negotiations, but all of them didn't materialize and
Speaker 4: the three countries didn't reach to an agreement. So I
Speaker 4: would say the process has styled for a couple of years.
Speaker 2: Which lead me to tak thanks so much for being here.
Speaker 2: You are in Egypt. Maybe you can give us a
Speaker 2: bit of history about the significance of the Nile for
Speaker 2: Egypt before we get into some of the events of
Speaker 2: this week.
Speaker 5: It's obviously usually significant. I mean, Egypt relies on our
Speaker 5: water for you know, especially ninety eight percent of its
Speaker 5: water needs. You know, there's a saying in Egypt that
Speaker 5: whoever drinks from the Nile will always come back. I mean,
Speaker 5: that's kind of an entrend in the country. So the
Speaker 5: idea that you know, there's the potential for shortfall for Egypt,
Speaker 5: which is that to an extent, that's already experiencing that.
Speaker 5: You know, it is hugely significant. I mean, as the
Speaker 5: Presidency put it yesterday when they issued a statement in
Speaker 5: a response to the inauguration, they deemed it an existential issue.
Speaker 5: You know, it's really a question of life or death
Speaker 5: for a country that essentially relies on the Nile water
Speaker 5: for almost everything.
Speaker 2: You mentioned the statement that we got from the Presidency.
Speaker 2: Has the messaging changed from Egypt over the years or
Speaker 2: does it remain consistent their concerns with this.
Speaker 5: Dam You know, obviously the statements are all Calctian diplomatic language.
Speaker 5: The most recent statement, which basically relaid a message or
Speaker 5: a letter that was submitted to the Security Council, talked
Speaker 5: about how Egypt pertains its rights to respond according to
Speaker 5: international law in the UN Charter, and it came out
Speaker 5: fairly forcefully against Ethiopia and what it dubbed intransigence on
Speaker 5: the part of the government. There two effectively or actively
Speaker 5: in agent negotiations that would yield to an agreement that
Speaker 5: would more fairly, more eculatively distribute than a water among
Speaker 5: the Anal Basin countries.
Speaker 2: I want us to take a quick break and when
Speaker 2: we come back We're going to talk a bit more
Speaker 2: about Egypt and potentially what the next steps could be, and.
Speaker 1: Even bringing in Sudan. We'll be right back.
Speaker 2: Welcome back today on the podcast, we're talking about that
Speaker 2: great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which hopes to provide some five
Speaker 2: thousand megawatts of energy to the Horn of Africa Region FASIKA.
Speaker 2: Today and Direct al TABLAWI are still with Meterrec. I
Speaker 2: wanted to stick with you because you were talking about
Speaker 2: potentially discussions that could.
Speaker 1: Happen moving forward.
Speaker 2: What's been interesting has been Egypt and Sudan sort of
Speaker 2: banding together against the dam. Do we have any sense
Speaker 2: of what the next steps look like for these two
Speaker 2: countries and their discussions are lack thereof.
Speaker 5: With Ethiopia, I think the focus right now on the
Speaker 5: part of Egypt and sensibly also Sudan is really to
Speaker 5: pursue the diplomatic channels that are available to the international efforts.
Speaker 5: I mean, as I mentioned, they they've taken the issue,
Speaker 5: you know, presented it to the Security Council and the
Speaker 5: hopes obviously that perhaps the Council would convene a special
Speaker 5: session to discuss it. You know, behind that, you know
Speaker 5: what we've been seeing on a part of Egypt is
Speaker 5: really a much stronger or much more active engagement on
Speaker 5: the on its part with its African neighbors, especially the
Speaker 5: you know, the Horne of Africa, and in essence, I
Speaker 5: mean what they're trying to do is to draw in
Speaker 5: those countries that were previously aligned with Ethiopia, you know,
Speaker 5: more on their side. I mean, Egypt had a long
Speaker 5: history in Africa under Gamla than Nasser back in the
Speaker 5: fifties and sixties. You know, it is very actively engaged.
Speaker 5: And then that they really withdrew from that scene, you know,
Speaker 5: under Sadded and then subsequently mob Arc and I think
Speaker 5: they've realized that I was in a state, you know,
Speaker 5: in the sense that it opened the door for Ethiopia
Speaker 5: to start rallying or building alliances or exerting its own
Speaker 5: influence there at the expense of Egypt. So you know,
Speaker 5: he's stepping back into the game a bit later, you know,
Speaker 5: starting maybe twenty nineteen is when they really actively done
Speaker 5: some kind of outreach with countries like eure Atria, Somalia.
Speaker 5: Last month, the Uganda, the president was in Cairo meeting
Speaker 5: with President Cci, you know, and a big part of
Speaker 5: their talks focused on the Nile, and obviously Egypt hopes
Speaker 5: that Uganda would kind of press the issue between us,
Speaker 5: you know, before a seven member committee that would look
Speaker 5: into trying to find a way of pressure or to
Speaker 5: convince Ethiopia to step back in with some kind of
Speaker 5: serious proposal that would mitigate the potential impact, you know,
Speaker 5: should another significant drought arise. I mean, that's that's really
Speaker 5: the description concern is what would happen if you have
Speaker 5: an extended drought season or drought period for several years.
Speaker 5: You know, it has tremendous domestic political significance. I mean,
Speaker 5: the fact that Egypt hasn't been able to brok or
Speaker 5: reach an agreement with ev ops Is is problematic for
Speaker 5: the government because it affects a nation about one hundred
Speaker 5: and eight million people manufacturer and another ten million people
Speaker 5: that are refugees from various conflicts in the region, you know,
Speaker 5: who are basically dealing with a severe water shortage for
Speaker 5: lack of a better word, I mean Egypt's under the
Speaker 5: UN guidelines. I mean, Egypt is a water poor country.
Speaker 5: It's it's the average per capital is about five hundred
Speaker 5: meters compared to what it was back when the initial
Speaker 5: agreements assigned back decades ago.
Speaker 2: I think you're alluding to the agreements made from Britain
Speaker 2: right allotting Egypt part of the Nile River. How much
Speaker 2: weight do you think that will potentially carry in these
Speaker 2: diplomatic discussions.
Speaker 5: You know, I think what Egypt is looking for, per
Speaker 5: se is something that allows the more equitable access to
Speaker 5: the water in proportion to the country's domestic needs. The
Speaker 5: Egyptian government, the presidency, there's all all along maintained that
Speaker 5: Ethiogys are right to economic development. You know, it's everybody's right.
Speaker 5: But at the same time, that shouldn't come at the
Speaker 5: expense of another country, which is a serious blind. I mean,
Speaker 5: it's not something you can make up for through desalination
Speaker 5: plants or even upgrading technology or recycling water, especially when
Speaker 5: the country's trying. Egypt is trying to increase agricultural land,
Speaker 5: boost arable area so less than its reliance on imports.
Speaker 1: And I'd like to bring Fasiica back into this physica.
Speaker 2: How has the Ethiopian government responded to these latest legal threats,
Speaker 2: because as we mentioned, this has been going on for
Speaker 2: quite some time.
Speaker 4: There is no direct response for the legal trade. But
Speaker 4: the government has been justifying that the dum wouldn't have
Speaker 4: an impact on Sudan in Egypt, saying that the dumb
Speaker 4: has reached in its full capacity. It's the reservare is
Speaker 4: full now and there is no big impact that created
Speaker 4: on Egypt and Sudan. That's the justification coming from the government.
Speaker 4: The government also says that catching that amount of water
Speaker 4: prevented Sudan from the recurring floods happening in the country,
Speaker 4: So that's the justification coming from the government. But also
Speaker 4: during the inauguration ceremony, the premise was saying Itopia doesn't
Speaker 4: have an intention to harm both countries and the country
Speaker 4: has a responsibility to protect those countries from any kind
Speaker 4: of disasters or challenge them white face and.
Speaker 2: Let's just finish on the inauguration. There was quite in
Speaker 2: a list of attendees there heads of state from across
Speaker 2: East Africa at the specific inauguration. Just to Trect's point earlier,
Speaker 2: its seeming like Ethiopia is getting a few allies to
Speaker 2: get on board with them with the benefits I guess
Speaker 2: of this damn But did we hear anything specifically from
Speaker 2: some of these heads of state about the various aims
Speaker 2: about the Nile River for.
Speaker 4: Heads of state where there during the inaugration, and all
Speaker 4: of them delivered speech during the inaugration ceremony, and one
Speaker 4: of the three things they mentioned was cooperation between the
Speaker 4: downstream countries and ensuring regional stability in the Horn North Africa.
Speaker 4: And yes, obviously that was one of the reasons stressed
Speaker 4: by Kenya's president with Dan Bruto and also the Somalian president.
Speaker 4: The other point they have mentioned was benefit the East
Speaker 4: African countries would be getting from the dump. So all
Speaker 4: of them expressed interests to purchase power from Ethiopia in
Speaker 4: the coming years.
Speaker 2: So yes, and you can read our coverage of the
Speaker 2: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some
Speaker 2: of the other stories we've been following across the region
Speaker 2: this week. Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court began presenting
Speaker 2: evidence this week to support their charges against fugitive Ugandan
Speaker 2: rebel leaders Joseph Coney at the Global Court's first ever
Speaker 2: absentia hearing, alleging that he inflicted horrors on Yugone in
Speaker 2: society that still echo two decades later, and Nigeria's currency unit,
Speaker 2: the naira, has rallied the most in Africa this month.
Speaker 2: It's been driven by high nominal rates and investor positioning
Speaker 2: ahead of expectations that the central bank may start cutting
Speaker 2: rates as inflation continues to trend downwards in the West
Speaker 2: African nation. You can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including
Speaker 2: the Next African Newsletter.
Speaker 1: We'll put a link to that in the show notes.
Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebayo.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
Speaker 2: usually get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: But for now, I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks for listening.