1 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Kloomberg eleventh to Washington d C, 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:13,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve ons to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: n to the Country Series Exam Channel one ninety and 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus append Bloomberg dot com. 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:25,639 Speaker 1: This is homework surveillance. Good morning, I'm erin Moscow along 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: with Tom Keene and Michael McKee and the opening valve 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: brought to you by s C. I Recognized as a 8 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: fintech pioneer, SEI continues, it's a legacy of innovation by 9 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: helping asset managers to compete in a changing world. Explore 10 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 1: SCI's next gen ideas at se i C dot com. 11 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: Slash I m s the S and P five hundred 12 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: higher at the open of three ten percent about seven 13 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: points to twenty sixty five the Dow Jones industrial average 14 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: of four ten percent or sixty six points to seventy thousand, 15 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: seven hundred seventy five. Then ASHT accept four ten percent 16 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: or nineteen points to forty seven seventy tenure treasury down 17 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: to thirty seconds. The yield one point seven five per 18 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: cent yield on the two year point seven two percent. 19 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 1: Now I'm ex screwde oil up seven tenths per cent 20 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: or thirty cents to forty seventy five of barrel called 21 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: my school, down a tenth of upper center one dollar 22 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: to twelve sixty six, the euro at other five, the 23 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: yen at one o nine, Tom and Mike karen f 24 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: thanks so much, Michael McKee. They are a distant eight 25 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:32,479 Speaker 1: miles apart the Northerners. The Northerners are playing eight hundred ball. 26 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: The Southerners are playing six ninety seven. For christ it's 27 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,199 Speaker 1: May rounded up to seven hundred ball. Between then, they've 28 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: won eleven games in a row. This is a great 29 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: and beautiful thing. It's a good time to be from Chicago, 30 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: Carl it is. Indeed, it must be the fresh water 31 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: mic Yeah, because let's be honest, it's a city that 32 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: needs some lightness right now. Is the city lit up 33 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: by this joy? Oh? It is. And we're desperately hoping 34 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: that some of the success of our baseball nines will 35 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 1: lip over into our pension funded ratio. Hopefully the percentages 36 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: there will get a little bit closer to the pace 37 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: of winning that our baseball teams have. Maybe they bring 38 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: a tin can around to the games and walk around 39 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: collecting cash from that better strategy than those that have 40 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: been tried. Mike, round up your beer money. Uh, you're 41 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: sitting here logged into the Bloomberg next to me looking 42 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: at FED funds futures trading, which suggests that there is 43 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: virtually no chance of a rate increase this year. This 44 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,839 Speaker 1: despite a host of FED officials over the past week 45 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 1: saying we might do it as soon as June, were 46 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: interested in raising rates. The old adage was don't fight 47 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: the Fed, but the markets are sure like saying the 48 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: Fed is the ninety pound weekling, go away, Mike. I 49 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: can't tell whether it's the weight of capital just looking 50 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: for safe haven, or just a disbelief that the FED 51 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: will follow through and what seems to be an unserve 52 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: global environment. But I think there will be a strong 53 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,079 Speaker 1: case made in June by some members of the f 54 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: MC to consider raising interest rates. At that time, all 55 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 1: of the lights on the employment dashboard looked green to me. 56 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: I know that there was some anxiety about the modest 57 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: pace of job creation, but I didn't think it was 58 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 1: modest at all in this day and age with demographics. 59 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: The good number for our payrolls could be as low 60 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: as a hundred thousand, we're still laveraging a very nice number. 61 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: We're seeing the labor force participation rate trend up, quits 62 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: rrupt wages, wages are growing more rapidly and inflations closer 63 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: to the two percent target than I think A lot 64 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: of people thought that it would be. Certainly that would 65 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: justify a small move towards normalcy, which could be a 66 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: long way off. And the international uncertainty is emblematic, is 67 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: amplified by financial conditions, which have been mentioned by several 68 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: FED officials. During the first part of the year seemed 69 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: far more settled than they were during the early part 70 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: of the first quarter. So in that environment, I don't 71 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: know why they wouldn't consider thinking about it. Why don't 72 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: people who buy and sell bonds for a living believe 73 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: any of that? I've I've asked them. I think that 74 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: they are pointing to this nebulous concept of global disinflationary forces. 75 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: With China decelerating with the carry over to emerging markets, 76 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: they just think that there's going to be immense downward 77 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 1: pressure on the components of the price levels. But a 78 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: lot of the price level components Mike. That are trending 79 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: upward are things like rent and medical costs that aren't 80 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: as influenced by international conditions, and as those things continue 81 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: to advance, I think it's going to present the FED 82 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,599 Speaker 1: challenging dilemma if they choose to wait that much longer. 83 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: Well do you ever go down to the trading desk 84 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: at Northern Trust and shake people and go look, look, look, 85 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: Well I don't shake them. Occasionally they shake back because 86 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 1: they feel as if we're completely misdiagnosing things. But I'm 87 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: just a dumm economist looking at the fundamentals and also 88 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,479 Speaker 1: listening to influential FED speakers. Mr Dudley was out at 89 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: the beginning of this week essentially saying to rate hikes 90 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: this year. So they have credibility. I think I've trod 91 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: into the National Association for Business Economics meetings. You've provided 92 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: great leadership there. Do these guys Trott again in two 93 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: thousand sixteen carry the same credibility of two thousand six 94 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: I think they do. Absolutely. I think they've been very 95 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 1: very patient. I think the DOTS told us that there 96 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: were nine participants for for the f MC in March 97 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: that thought there would be two rate hikes this year. 98 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 1: I think one of those dots, which was Janet Yelling, 99 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,559 Speaker 1: I think it was very unlikely that that was back 100 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: loaded this year, that they would represented September in December, 101 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: and so the June meeting I think is very much live. 102 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: M the The idea that inflation is coming back would 103 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: suggest that the Fed needs to do something. But how 104 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: much time do they have? Uh they behind the curve 105 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: at this point? The market certainly doesn't seem to think so. 106 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: I wouldn't say they're behind the curve, but especially as 107 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: energy prices normalized and then carry over into the core 108 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: measures of inflation, I think they can feel more comfortable 109 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: in their parlance as to the outlook of reaching their 110 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: two percent target. I think they're also very comfortable letting 111 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,679 Speaker 1: that run a little bit over. Two persuasive papers suggest 112 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: that if they're close to zero, better to air on 113 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: the side of letting inflation carry a little bit warmer 114 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: than than acting to aggress. I want to get to 115 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: your state work, which is brilliant, but but first of all, 116 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 1: at Northern Trust, you manage quiet money. As a general statement, 117 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: does the quiet money have to ratchet down to single 118 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: digit and even low single digit expectations of return. Well, 119 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: that's set's certainly a paradigm shift, especially for institutional portfolios 120 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: like pension. Get asked a lot. What would be the 121 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: consequences of a prolonged negat is a huge negative interest 122 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: rate environment, Tom. The two aspects that come up most 123 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: frequently are pension regimes in the public and the private sectors, 124 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: but also life insurers who have these long tailed liabilities 125 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: and asset returns that are not meeting some of the 126 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: now slamming into six and seven years of this. Okay, 127 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: the problem with Carl tannabomb folks is on a Saturday 128 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: or Sunday, you're waiting through forty two reports. He writes, 129 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: so coachly and brilliantly, you go damn you say, you 130 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: say that we're damn a lot with Carl tannem bomb 131 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: bad fortune, bad management, bad politics. You wrote a classic 132 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: tannem bomb on the sorry state of our states. You 133 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: can do that from Illinois. You mean you're the you're 134 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: the one talking model. Is everybody else gonna catch up 135 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: with your Illinois? Let's hope not. We're certainly ground zero 136 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: for some of the pension problems in time. The point 137 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: I tried to make in the piece is that this 138 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: isn't just a financial spectator sport. The states in our 139 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: country are at the center of investing in economic infrastructure, 140 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: physical and human capital. If their finances are not in order, 141 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna fall behind on making those investments. That may 142 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: be one of the things that's contributing to the low 143 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: rate of productivity growth in the country. CBO did a 144 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: great study and it clearly showed public employees get a 145 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: real nice ride versus private enterprise. I think that's a 146 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: good summary of what they did five or six years ago. 147 00:07:55,720 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: Do you factor local government employees into our dearth of productivity? Well, there, 148 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: that's certainly one of the things that we have to 149 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: be careful about. But it's more general than that. If 150 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: you do not have smooth roadways, if you don't have 151 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: a coach and air traffic system, if you're not renewing 152 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: broadband and electrical grids, and those sorts of things, and 153 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: also reinforcing human capital in this knowledge economy because at 154 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: the primary and secondary level, local governments are providing almost 155 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: all of the funding, and they also provide a lot 156 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: of support to state colleges and community colleges. Absent that 157 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: We're not going to have a workforce that is prepared 158 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: to compete in the next couple of decades. Let's come 159 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: back with Carl Tetemoum. He's a chief economist at Northern 160 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: Trust in the first place city of Chicago, uh, first 161 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: place in the American League, first place in the nationally. 162 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: When is the last time that happened? Oh? You you, 163 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: but you know he mentions infrastructure, and you wonder about 164 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: their airport. I'm looking here for the latest Midway airport 165 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 1: number eleven on the frustration index. And then we do better. 166 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: Oh hair um, you know, I'm I'm can here quickly 167 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: to see how they do. Given when JFK is right 168 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: of top number four in Chicago, can't can't be worsen 169 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: New York. Jfkno here very closely linked. And then there's Washington, Dullas. 170 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: Good morning, nine to one. M We hope you're not 171 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: going to Dullas. This hour of surveillance is brought to 172 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: you by Volvo Cars, White Planes. Visit Volvo Cars, White 173 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: Planes dot Com. Here's Michael bar with news headlines. Mike Time, 174 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. President Obama will make a groundbreaking 175 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: visit to Japan later this month, President Obama will travel 176 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: to the site where the US dropped in atomic bomb 177 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: erosion of the japan. The President will honor the victims 178 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: of the bombing that killed a hundred forty thousand Japanese 179 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: on August six, nineteen. The White House has ruled out 180 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: the possibility that President Obama will apologize for the bombing. 181 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: The owners of the Colorado Theater, where twelve people died 182 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: in the shooting round Page, will be in court today. 183 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: Twenty eight victims and their families are suing. They say 184 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 1: cinemarks should have had silent alarms and armed guards at 185 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: the packed midnight premiere of a Batman film where James 186 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: Holmes launched his attack. At least one person is dead 187 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: after German police say a knife fielding man stabbed commuter 188 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: is at a train station in a Munich suburb. Police 189 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: say the attack was probably politically motivated. There were some 190 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: good news for residents in the Canadian town of Fort 191 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: McMurray and Alberta, plans being made to allow the evacuees 192 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: to return. Alberta premiere Rachel Notley says about two hundred 193 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 1: homes and buildings were destroyed, but firefighters managed to save 194 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: two others. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered 195 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: by our two hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty 196 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,959 Speaker 1: news burals from around the world. Nifel bar Michael, thanks 197 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: so much, Bloomberg Night sixty the Bay Area good news. 198 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: San Francisco is not one of our worst airports. We 199 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 1: mentioned Midway, we mentioned JFK, We mentioned O hair Guests, 200 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: which is the number one frustration index airport LaGuardia. I'm shocked. 201 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Survalences brought to you you by Ancient Block an ancient 202 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: named the best accounting firm in North America for the 203 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: sixth year in a row. Hedge Week dot Com, Global 204 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: Business News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, 205 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio. This 206 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: is a Broomberg business flash. And I'm Karen Moscow. The 207 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 1: varish sentiment that hit traders in the past two weeks 208 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: easing amid a balance in commodities, with US stocks joining 209 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: in equity market games from Japan to Europe, and we'd 210 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day 211 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg and the S and P five is higher 212 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: up thirteen points or seven tenths per cent to twenty 213 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: seventy two down Jones Industrial average up eight tens per 214 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: cent or one hundred forty eight points to seventeen thousand 215 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 1: and eight, hadred fifty four the na's deck of three 216 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: tens per cent or fifteen points to forty seven sixty 217 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 1: five ten Your treasury down to thirty seconds, the yield 218 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: one point seven five percent. The yield on the two 219 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: year point seven two percent nine x screwed oil up 220 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 1: one point eight percent or seventy six cents to forty four. 221 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,680 Speaker 1: Twenty of barrel comes gold is down to ten percent 222 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: or three dollars to twelve sixty three seventy announced the 223 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: euro at O N one oh nine point oh four. 224 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: Comcast paid four hundred ninety million dollars this year to 225 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 1: unwind obligations under life insurance policies tied to late founder 226 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: Ralph Roberts and his wife, Suzanne, a remnant of an 227 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: era when generous executive perks received less investor scrutiny. Gap 228 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: shares down eleven percent this morning after the apparel chain 229 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: posted disappointing results, assigned the company's much vaunted springtime comeback 230 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: hasn't materialized, and Allerghan is up five point two percent. 231 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,959 Speaker 1: The maker of the anti anti wrinkle injection Botox so 232 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: That plans to buy back as much as ten billion 233 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: dollars in stock after completing the forty billion dollars sale 234 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: of its generic business do Tava Pharmaceutical Industries. And as 235 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash coming Karen, thanks so much. A 236 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance this morning, brought to by Interactive Brokers. They 237 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: offer direct market access to stocks, two options futures for 238 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: X bonds and e t f s in over market 239 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 1: centers in twenty four countries from a single account. Visit 240 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:22,319 Speaker 1: ib k R dot com slash trade worldwide. Michael, you 241 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: note Brian Blackstone over at the journal looking at a 242 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: different tone from Mr Amadi. You b s, I mean credit, 243 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 1: sweez is fighting for its life. I happen to enjoy 244 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 1: listening to Sergio or Matti if you don't know him, 245 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: particularly our US audience. Um, he does not speak off 246 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: Q cards. He's a bit like Mr Diamond. It's free 247 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: flowing and Mr Amadi uh, maybe saying uh negative interest 248 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 1: rates an extraordinary measure used in extraordinary times. He and 249 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: axel Weber go on to say uh, there's some challenging 250 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,719 Speaker 1: challenges there. Yeah, they don't like negative interest rates at all. 251 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: Carl Tanemo is here from Northern Trust. He worked at 252 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It's safe to say 253 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: members of the US Central Bank don't like negative interest 254 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: rates either. No, my mother doesn't like negative interest rates either, 255 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: which I think is a core problem in Europe. They've 256 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: had negative interest rates in some countries are quite a while, 257 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: but banks have been reluctant to pass those along to 258 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: their retail customers or fear of what they might do. 259 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: As a result, negative interest rates I think have been 260 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: counterproductive because they've crimp bank margins, They've slowed the pace 261 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: of lending growth there and and actually worked counter purposefully 262 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: to what the e c B is trying to do. 263 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: I think there's been good work that suggests that we 264 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: won't have hoarding of cash unless interrust rates get very negative. 265 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: But there's not a good work that I've seen that 266 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: suggests that it's going to be a great dividend for 267 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: the economy. It says to me that central banks are 268 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: probably reaching the bottom of their barrel of stimulus tricks. 269 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 1: QWI has probably reached the edge of its effectiveness, and 270 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: when we're talking about helicopter drops, which frankly Mike and 271 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: Tom I see his fiscal policy as opposed to monetary policy. 272 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: It really is time for the fiscal side, I think, 273 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: to take the handoff if we're to get economic growth 274 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: up to a higher level the UH. There is an 275 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: argument that where you raise interest rates, first of all, 276 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: you help the savers. Second of all, you give companies 277 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: a return on their investments, and you create an environment 278 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: where people feel better about prospects for things. Are you 279 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: in the camp that says that the FEDS policy is 280 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 1: hurting the economy? Now, I wouldn't go that far. I 281 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: know their analysts that suggests that it is. But I've 282 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: been classically trained, which is that if you want to 283 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 1: get taken activity up, you make credit cheaper, not more expensive. 284 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: And I think if we can get to a point 285 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 1: where we can raise rates in orderly fashion, I think 286 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: it will have that dividend of expressing confidence from the 287 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: central You have the courage to say you've been classically 288 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: trained in economics, That can mean a lot. Mr Krugman 289 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: of Princeton would spectfully suggests we have to go back 290 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: to Hicks nine nine and within a classical mode. His 291 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: critics would say, the rules have changed. It's so much 292 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: more open, much more global economy. What people A lot 293 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: of people don't know. Chicago's living globalization has been doing 294 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: it for two hundred I would suggest for two hundred years. 295 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: Can we do classical economics today or do we just 296 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 1: have to go onto a new orthodoxy. That's a great question, Tom. 297 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 1: I think when central banks first started laying out their 298 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: objectives there were much more national in scope. Today, the 299 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: determinants of US unemployment and inflation are very global, and 300 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: the federal reserves reach, or any central banks reach, rarely 301 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: goes that much further than their own borders. So a 302 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: question could be asked, can they really reached their objectives 303 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: effectively in this global market environment? I think if they 304 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: are to do so, they need a great deal of 305 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: coordination with other central bankers. Perhaps that came out a 306 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 1: little bit amongst strategury officials at the Teach Onely meeting 307 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: in Shanghai earlier this year. But getting that coordination to 308 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: everybody's benefit is very difficult to do. Within the mix 309 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 1: is an economist and folks to visit the Northern Trust Building. 310 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: It's in the most gorgeous old part of Chicago and 311 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: the architecture and all that you're surrounded by equity and 312 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: bond people. They look at you like why are you here? 313 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 1: And when you talk to your portfolio managers, they're living 314 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 1: a single digit world. Do they have the fear or 315 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: the relative fear that we see from the punditry right 316 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: now about the equity markets. I've never seen so many 317 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 1: inflammatory notes linking Tannembob's world with the Northern Trust portfolio 318 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 1: managers world, which is it's all going to come to 319 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: end because monetary policy can't get it done. How do 320 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: you deal with that in the hallways of Northern Trust. Well, well, 321 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 1: I take a lot of abuse on those halls. I 322 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: must say that they just had our five year capital 323 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: markets assumption meeting where we lay out our expectation for 324 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: asset returns tom and actually the mood was quite a 325 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: bit more sanguine. I think this feeling is still that 326 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: economic growth globe belief is going to surprise people a 327 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: little bit. And when you add the benefit of modest 328 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 1: inflation and decent turnings, equities and large cap equities are 329 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: not someplace that you should feel uncomfortable investing. Did you 330 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: hold that me to get Wrigley Field or cellular field? 331 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: We cut it right down the middle, as we have 332 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: to very cute. Just for the record, you're you're older, 333 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: you don't call it cellular one field. Now it's still 334 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 1: it's like I can't I can't get in a cabin 335 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: Washington and asked to go to Reagan Airport. It's National Airport. 336 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: I mean it's always now I am, I'm old, but 337 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 1: I'm not old enough to ask to go to idle Wild, 338 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: you know, when I want to fly overseas from New York. 339 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: But still, uh, you say, we we should be able 340 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 1: to invest at this point, But would you do your 341 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: people suggest that you want to have anything to do 342 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: with bonds at this point? We um both because you know, 343 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: if the Fed is raising rates, you would tend to 344 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: lose money, but also because nobody seems to have any 345 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 1: idea what's going on in the bond market world right now. 346 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 1: Well that's fair. Of course, we work with our clients 347 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 1: on their specific goals, and in many cases of bond investment, 348 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,199 Speaker 1: with its predictable cashles, is exactly what they need. In addition, 349 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 1: I think a lot of us tend to think of 350 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,640 Speaker 1: the bond market as the treasury market, not much else. 351 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: There's still some very decent returns to corporate bond markets 352 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: um and you know, if you're looking at an inflation 353 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: adjusted return, is still not not terrible for those who 354 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: want safety over risk. Would you, by tips at this point? 355 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: Is there enough of an inflation threat out there that 356 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: you want to hedge against it? So I'm not sure. 357 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: I think the other thing that has to be taken 358 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: account of is that the treasury market is a global 359 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: asset class, and it's quite clear that global pools of 360 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: savings are still heading in this direction for the strength 361 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: of our currency, the predictability relative predictability of our politics, 362 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: and that's holding yields down and may do so, Mike 363 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,199 Speaker 1: for quite a while, which goes back to the initial 364 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: part of our conversation about long yield portfolios like pensions 365 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: and life insurance companies who may be adjusting to a 366 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 1: much lower rate of fix income returns. And eventually we 367 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 1: talb about that today over in Europe. He said, you know, 368 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: we we are the world's reserve currency, and that has benefits, 369 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 1: but it also has uh negatives to it, and one 370 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:20,439 Speaker 1: is that our currency may not reflect the fundamentals of 371 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: the US economy, and Mike, I think that there in 372 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: lies the risk of the FED remaining where it is 373 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: for too much longer. We're forcing capital to places it 374 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: isn't really comfortable because the fixed income returns are so low. 375 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: When you get that happening, whether it's real estate or 376 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 1: some equity corners, you could get some accesses that would 377 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: be unpleasant to unwine Carol. One more question if we could, 378 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,479 Speaker 1: then we've got to close out the show. What does 379 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: Chicago need to do to write the ship? Has been 380 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: a huge negative stream of news out of Chicago. I 381 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 1: think of Peter Nique has and O. There's the Chicago 382 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 1: Tribune writing on the crime and the shooting, and there's 383 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: the debt and the fiscal issues as well. What does 384 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,360 Speaker 1: your Chicago need to do to write the ship? Well, uh, 385 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 1: look for visitors to Chicago. You know, please, You're you're 386 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: not going to step off the airplane and immediately be 387 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: the subject of a capital crime. There are neighborhoods in Chicago, 388 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: some close to where I grew up that are not 389 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 1: that pleasant, but a lot of the city is beautiful. 390 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 1: We have a great labor force, great universities and companies 391 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,239 Speaker 1: enjoy being their central location good transportation. I think the 392 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: challenge that people ask about is what are the tax 393 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: rates going to be? Given that it will likely take 394 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: an amendment to the state constitution to make progress on 395 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: our pension system, which at the moment is thirty eight 396 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: percent funded, and court cases have thrown out even the 397 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: most minor of adjustments that have been made, so unfortunately, 398 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: we're kind of locked in where we are. And other 399 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: than starting a rumor that interest rates are going to 400 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 1: be a lot higher, which I'm tempted to try, there 401 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: are no silver bullets in the fiscal picture time. Carl turonem, 402 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 1: I'm wonderful to see you again and your visit here 403 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 1: to New York. He is with Carl Tonebo with the 404 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: Northern Trust, a company Mike I had to take down 405 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: on my internet site here the ESPN Cubs and White 406 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: Sox sites. It was too too stunning. Does the Northern 407 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 1: Trust have season tickets at on the South Side Ballpark? 408 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 1: We had our bets there, Michael, we had your bet. 409 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: Very good. It has been a wonderful show. Thank little Rachel. 410 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: We're span our team Bowden. Thank you so much. Your 411 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: assistants as well as we've looked at the theory today 412 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: of economics, finance and investment. This is a Bloomberg surveillance