WEBVTT - Square Co-Founder on New Election Polling Tech

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we've checked in with him a few times over the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Great to have back with us. Jim McKelvey. He's co

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<v Speaker 1>founder of Square. He's still a board member. He's also

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<v Speaker 1>author of The Innovation Stack, Building an Unbeatable Business, one

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<v Speaker 1>crazy idea at a time. It's a great title, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a great book. He's also founder and chairman of the St.

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<v Speaker 1>Louis based Invisibly, an independent data centric company. They used

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<v Speaker 1>its online surveying technology to gauge Americans opinions on reopening

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<v Speaker 1>amid the COVID nineteen pandemic and more. Jim is also

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<v Speaker 1>deputy chair of the fudow Rezer Bank of St. Louis,

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<v Speaker 1>and he joins us on the phone from St. Louis

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<v Speaker 1>on this Monday. So nice to have you back with us.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you. I'm doing well, Carol, How are you doing?

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<v Speaker 1>Doing okay? Just trying to kind of keep up with

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<v Speaker 1>with all of the headlines. Um, tell me a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about your company, Invisibly and your involvement in the election.

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<v Speaker 1>I find this fascinating, especially in a year where once

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<v Speaker 1>again polls didn't necessarily predict the outcome, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're all trying to figure out how can we be

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<v Speaker 1>or what can we do to have a better predictor

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to the election. So tell us a

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<v Speaker 1>bit about in Invisibly. So Invisibly it is a company

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<v Speaker 1>that's mission is to get people more control of their

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<v Speaker 1>online data. And in the process of building that, we

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<v Speaker 1>built this little tool that did surveys. We didn't think

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<v Speaker 1>much of it, but some Republican strategists got ahold of

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<v Speaker 1>it about six months ago and they did a little

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<v Speaker 1>test and discovered that the tool was shockingly accurate. So

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<v Speaker 1>from a little two thousand dollar tests, the Republicans ended

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<v Speaker 1>up spending well over a million dollars doing polls with

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<v Speaker 1>this technology. And as you as you mentioned, I'm on

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve, I am politically neutral, so my job

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<v Speaker 1>is to see both sides well informed. And I did

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<v Speaker 1>my best to reach out and share this news with

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<v Speaker 1>both sides, and amazingly, the Democrats didn't listen. They didn't

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<v Speaker 1>pay any attention at all. And I have several stories

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<v Speaker 1>of this, But I mean the fact is that we've

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<v Speaker 1>been able to call the election too within um A

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<v Speaker 1>quarter point. And if you compare the data that for

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<v Speaker 1>instance five eight, which is sort of an aggregation of

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<v Speaker 1>the best polls did, they were off by almost three points.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's nine times more accurate and frankly, way less expensive.

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<v Speaker 1>And I just couldn't believe people weren't listening to us. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>so how come, I mean, listen, you guys are all

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<v Speaker 1>in on on data because you knew Ohio wasn't going

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<v Speaker 1>to be close. I mean, it's really pretty pretty wild

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<v Speaker 1>Arizona could be or would be a swing. So what

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<v Speaker 1>was it about? And I know you can't give away

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<v Speaker 1>all your secrets, but what was it about the data collection,

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<v Speaker 1>the types of data, or the algorithms? What was it,

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<v Speaker 1>generally speaking that you think made it a better predictor?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the best way to describe it is it's

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<v Speaker 1>like manners um. For instance, if somebody asked you a

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<v Speaker 1>question and they're rude, you don't answer it. If somebody

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<v Speaker 1>asked you the exact same question and they're polite and respectful,

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<v Speaker 1>you might give them an answer. And I mean, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>manners is one of these subtle things. I got two

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<v Speaker 1>kids at home time teach you the good manners and

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's it's a hard thing. You can't just describe

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<v Speaker 1>it in two seconds of a sound bite. But the

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<v Speaker 1>fact is, it's who you ask, it's the way you ask,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the question you ask, and it's when you ask.

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<v Speaker 1>And all of these things, if they're handled correctly, can

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<v Speaker 1>get you a very honest, accurate answer. So did you,

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of doing this and developing this, Jim, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>look at past poles and kind of how they did

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<v Speaker 1>it to figure out maybe what was a better way? No,

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<v Speaker 1>and and and funny enough, this is sort of what

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<v Speaker 1>I talked about in the innovation stack of my book,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is a lot of times when you stumble

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<v Speaker 1>on something new, it's because you didn't copy what everybody

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<v Speaker 1>else was doing. And we were not intending to be

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<v Speaker 1>a polling company like this is not in visibly it's

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<v Speaker 1>not our job on this thing that was shockingly accurate,

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<v Speaker 1>and so uh, we went with it, but it was

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<v Speaker 1>it was an accidental discovery, you know, sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of stuff. Well, it's interesting that you say

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<v Speaker 1>this too, though. Um. One of our colleagues, David Weston,

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<v Speaker 1>had caught up with Frank Leance, who's well known for

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<v Speaker 1>his polling, but he said we need to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>a different way, and that you know, whether it was

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<v Speaker 1>folks supported Donald Trump maybe didn't want to talk to

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<v Speaker 1>certain polls because they didn't like the media outlet or

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<v Speaker 1>didn't like the approach exactly. That what you're talking about,

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<v Speaker 1>and that definitely skews the numbers. Absolutely, there there are

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of things that skew the numbers. It's when

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<v Speaker 1>you ask, it's the way you ask, it's the question

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<v Speaker 1>you ask. It's whether or not people feel safe and um, well,

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<v Speaker 1>you put somebody in a stressful situation or you feel

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<v Speaker 1>like they're being judged, they're not going to tell you

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<v Speaker 1>the truth. Yeah, it's pretty fascinating. Well, so then, so

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think about that in terms of applications

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<v Speaker 1>going forward? As you said, kind of an accidental business.

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<v Speaker 1>You didn't plan this. We've got about forty seconds and

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<v Speaker 1>then we'll do some news and come back and do

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<v Speaker 1>some more. But is this you know you anticipate kind

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<v Speaker 1>of pushing this out as a business even more. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I just think it's good for the world. Like I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's not just politics. I think knowing the subtleties

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<v Speaker 1>of how your message as being received by people is

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<v Speaker 1>super important and we just proved a big time. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this is an election. We got to call

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<v Speaker 1>our shots. So we made our predictions, posted them up,

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<v Speaker 1>everyone can see them, and sure enough they were within

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<v Speaker 1>a quarter point you know, so so I But I

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<v Speaker 1>think the application here is anyone that has to communicate

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<v Speaker 1>can now judge the effectiveness of that communication in almost

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<v Speaker 1>real time. How does the world look to you, Jim

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<v Speaker 1>right now? What kind of visibility do you have? UM?

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<v Speaker 1>When we try to think about the virus, the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the election, there's just so many big things

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<v Speaker 1>going on right now. Well, I'm happy the election is over. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>And uh, you know, as as somebody who's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of loot through the virus, both as a small

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<v Speaker 1>business person, as somebody who's you know, funding vaccine research

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<v Speaker 1>and watching the data at the FED. UM, I have

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<v Speaker 1>to say this, you know, it's it's actually fairly hopeful.

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<v Speaker 1>We had a solid economy before the pandemic U and

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<v Speaker 1>this is the first time we've ever taken a robust

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<v Speaker 1>economy and voluntarily shut it down for health reasons. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's never been done before in history. And what I'm

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<v Speaker 1>literally looking at the data that I'm going to present

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<v Speaker 1>to the the Federal Reserve in about ten minutes. And um,

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<v Speaker 1>we've you know, do the data here in St. Louis,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not terrible like it's it's it's obviously very

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<v Speaker 1>very bad for certain people, but the economy does seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be you know, bouncing back, so that's that's a

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<v Speaker 1>good thing. Um. You know. The other thing not to

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<v Speaker 1>be too upbeat about this is that, you know, times

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<v Speaker 1>of crises are really good at accelerating trends that are

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<v Speaker 1>going to come anyway. So if we would all be

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<v Speaker 1>doing zoom meetings five years from now, now, we're all

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<v Speaker 1>doing zoom meetings today. So it's a great time for

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<v Speaker 1>um innovation and companies who are building the future really

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<v Speaker 1>have a pronounced advantage. During times of crises, it can

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<v Speaker 1>be uncomfortable, so as we go it right, that dislocation,

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<v Speaker 1>as we go through, it's always uncomfortable. But but see

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<v Speaker 1>that's the thing. Doing something new was always uncomfortable. But

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<v Speaker 1>if you're doing something new, one of the are the things.

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<v Speaker 1>And I guess we just talked about that with our

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<v Speaker 1>you know, pulling technology, like we just there's great new

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<v Speaker 1>pulling technology and and I couldn't get anybody to listen

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<v Speaker 1>to us. Okay, I totally failed. And I you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I've been at this for a while, and I know

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of important people, and I couldn't do it.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the thing. If you build something new, one

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<v Speaker 1>of the most frustrating things is the world. We ignore

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<v Speaker 1>it until if things are going well and um, right now,

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<v Speaker 1>if you have a new invention, you have the chance

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<v Speaker 1>of getting people to notice it far better than they

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<v Speaker 1>would under normal circumstances. Because when when things are normal,

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<v Speaker 1>you do what you did yesterday. You don't look for

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<v Speaker 1>new stuff. You don't change When when the world is

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<v Speaker 1>imploding and you're living at home and your kids are

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<v Speaker 1>driving it crazy because you're homeschooling, like, that's the time

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<v Speaker 1>you actually look out and said, hey, is there any

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<v Speaker 1>other options? So, if you're in the business of innovation,

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<v Speaker 1>which is always messy, it's a good thing to be

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<v Speaker 1>in somewhat of a crisis. The one thing I love too.

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<v Speaker 1>You go to your website, you say we followed data

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<v Speaker 1>to truth. We are deliberately in a pennant this whole

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<v Speaker 1>idea of truth. And we've had a lot of discussions

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<v Speaker 1>on air about you know, when did truth? When did

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<v Speaker 1>facts stop mattering? Um? You know? And so why why

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<v Speaker 1>do you want to know the reason? It will take

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<v Speaker 1>a two minutes. Well it'll leave you to you and

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<v Speaker 1>a half after it, but that's okay, you come back later. Um. Sorry.

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<v Speaker 1>But the fact is there's an economic reason why lies

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<v Speaker 1>make more money. Uh, and that is, if you if

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<v Speaker 1>you're in the business of selling advertising space, people who

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<v Speaker 1>tend to believe more um fanciful data i e. People

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<v Speaker 1>who believe fake news are also more valuable as advertising prospects,

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<v Speaker 1>frankly because they are more gullible and therefore are willing

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<v Speaker 1>to buy certain products that normal skeptical people will not buy.

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<v Speaker 1>And I can prove this. I've seen the data. A

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<v Speaker 1>gullible a gullible pair of eyeballs is worth ten times

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<v Speaker 1>as much as a normal pair of eyeballs. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you're creating content where you're making up falsehoods and those

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<v Speaker 1>falsehoods are being digested by people, those people's eyeballs are

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<v Speaker 1>actually worth more. And I'm sorry to explain the business

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<v Speaker 1>plan of fake news to people, but that's actually was

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<v Speaker 1>driving a lot of this. No, We've talked about this

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<v Speaker 1>on social media that the churn. I mean, what drives

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<v Speaker 1>the momentum, right, The activity is often not the boring facts,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's more provocative UM stories they get out there.

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<v Speaker 1>Then ultimately that increases, you know, the volume of activity,

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<v Speaker 1>and then that increases the AD dollars. So so who's

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<v Speaker 1>responsible for fixing this, especially when you think about how

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<v Speaker 1>many people get their news from social media at this point. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there are several vectors for fixing it. I mean, one,

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<v Speaker 1>we're taking it invisibly as a market solution. We're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to build a market so that people can choose to

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<v Speaker 1>spend their attention in ways that that serve them best.

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<v Speaker 1>And we think an open market that's you know, free

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<v Speaker 1>of government, is probably the best solution. But I also

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<v Speaker 1>think that governments can can play in this world, that

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<v Speaker 1>they can get in and regulate. Um. It's also possible,

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<v Speaker 1>although we haven't seen it demonstrated yet, that some of

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<v Speaker 1>the major platforms will step up UM. I you know,

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<v Speaker 1>business partners, subject or see and I have a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of respect for some of the things that Jack's done.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think you've got multiple agents that can help

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<v Speaker 1>fix this. Okay, one thing I want to just wrap

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<v Speaker 1>up with and because you have you know, been involved

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<v Speaker 1>with Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>working on a vaccine. We've got some big news with visor,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the big picture of you know, what do

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<v Speaker 1>you make of the collaborative and coordinated effort to find

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine and how it can really be leveraged in

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<v Speaker 1>a great way when it comes to healthcare and dealing

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with future vaccine development and just really getting

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<v Speaker 1>at some of those tougher healthcare issues that are out there.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was wonderful. Honestly, I don't know much

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<v Speaker 1>about life science, but I stepped up and started working

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<v Speaker 1>with these people, and uh, what a wonderful group of

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<v Speaker 1>people to be associated with there. They're sharing data, they're

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<v Speaker 1>helping each other, nobody's you know, monopolizing their findings. It's

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<v Speaker 1>really collaborative in a way that you know, Frank, we're

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<v Speaker 1>not always that way out in Silicon Valley. Well that yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's what I was gonna say. Doesn't you think

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<v Speaker 1>it carries over to other industries when you realize when

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<v Speaker 1>we all are in into the vaccine for that mean

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<v Speaker 1>not gonna happen, not gonna happen. Yeah, who knows. I mean,

0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:18.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, who knows. Are we gonna get it, get

0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.600
<v Speaker 1>to get together? Probably not, Um, But the fact is

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<v Speaker 1>that in times of crises, I think that brings out,

0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:25.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, great behavior and a lot of people. And

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<v Speaker 1>I certainly saw it by h you know, participating by

0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.240
<v Speaker 1>with some great scientists who were really working tirelessly to

0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:35.000
<v Speaker 1>say our lives. It's pretty remarkable. UM. Jim McKelvey, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. We always appreciate getting some time with you.

0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.280
<v Speaker 1>Jim McKelvey. He's co founder of Square. He's author of

0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:43.800
<v Speaker 1>The Innovation Stack, Building an unbeatable business, one crazy idea

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<v Speaker 1>at a time. As he said, sometimes it just kind

0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:49.160
<v Speaker 1>of happens. It's accidental. As he talked about with Invisibly,

0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.840
<v Speaker 1>he's founder and chairman of the St. Louis based Invisibly

0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and he's also Deputy chair of the Federal Reserve Bank

0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.440
<v Speaker 1>of St. Louis. UM talking about getting ready to actually

0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.600
<v Speaker 1>talk to the St. Louis FED and be not too

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:04.640
<v Speaker 1>concerned about what we're seeing in terms of the economic outlook,