Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News, Single Best Idea. Thank
Speaker 1: you for the response. Really humbled. It's it's just amazing.
Speaker 1: I thought it would take months and months and months
Speaker 1: to chart, and we actually are charting within the podcast world.
Speaker 1: And I really don't understand the new podcast world. You know,
Speaker 1: Joe Rogan is no threat for me. I'm just not
Speaker 1: going to do it. Joe Rogan on you. But the
Speaker 1: I was humbled by the charting that we see. We're
Speaker 1: under business and business news at Apple Podcast. We're working
Speaker 1: our way forward. Where'd you get Eric? Where'd you get
Speaker 1: the photo of me on the chick lit? Was that
Speaker 1: the police lineup in nineteen seventy three? Something like that. Anyways,
Speaker 1: we're having fun with Single Best Idea.
Speaker 2: What is it?
Speaker 1: It's two ideas from a three hour show. I do
Speaker 1: some chit chat on it. It's six or seven minutes
Speaker 1: to add to your busy Apple podcast day. Charlie Klow
Speaker 1: is a legend. We'll talk about that in a moment,
Speaker 1: but we had another legend in today. Chris Whalen. I'm
Speaker 1: going to say a decade ago, twelve years ago, wrote
Speaker 1: a single volume called Inflated, and it was a curative
Speaker 1: Force Financial history of the United States of America. He's
Speaker 1: in heavy rewrite on it right now. This fall we
Speaker 1: will see a new inflated from Chris Whalen. It'll be
Speaker 1: immediate required read by Global at Wall Street. And he's
Speaker 1: been on fire, you know him out on Twitter with
Speaker 1: all he's doing, and he's been absolute on fire on
Speaker 1: banking safety, on commercial real estate in the rest. Here
Speaker 1: is Christopher Whalen of Whalen Global. Here he is. And
Speaker 1: you gotta buy the biggest best stocks.
Speaker 3: The way I look at banks. You know, we published
Speaker 3: some bank indices earlier this year and we weighted quality
Speaker 3: versus size. Now you can't ignore size. But my attitude
Speaker 3: is if you want to be safe with banks, you
Speaker 3: want to own the top twenty five out of the
Speaker 3: top one hundred. So that's a pretty harsh cut. But
Speaker 3: whether you care about income or alpha, you want to
Speaker 3: know where the good ones are. And so for example,
Speaker 3: we just wrote a piece about Banko's George Gleeson. Well,
Speaker 3: George is a little bank, but he produces a lot
Speaker 3: of construction and development loans. People make the mistake of
Speaker 3: thinking he's in commercial real estate lending. He's not. He
Speaker 3: lends in the beginning of the life cycle of the asset.
Speaker 3: Then he gets out very smart.
Speaker 1: Chris Waylan there Damien Sas are helping out here on
Speaker 1: a Friday. We try to get Katie greifeld in, but
Speaker 1: she was it was something at the horse, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know the horse or whatever. And Paul Sweeney's
Speaker 1: got the Gulf Stream. So we had Damiens Sasa and
Speaker 1: of course the markets are really on the move. We
Speaker 1: had a huge jump condition on the geopolitics. Brent Crude
Speaker 1: out the ninety two A print of ninety two Dxyzer
Speaker 1: one oh six show Stronger resilient US dollars, something that
Speaker 1: mister Whalan spoke about, and it synthesizes what invented or
Speaker 1: how we invented Bloomberg surveillance. So how do we do that?
Speaker 1: We did it off the legends. Trust me, folks, you
Speaker 1: know I was borrowing stealing from everybody every day. Ed
Speaker 1: Hyman at c J Lawrence, Eddie Yar, Denny as well
Speaker 1: at CJ Lawrence, a guy named Farrell at Mary Lynch
Speaker 1: with a young Turk, David Rosenberg and Richard Bernstein at
Speaker 1: Merrill Lynch. So you say, well, that's all great, but
Speaker 1: where was this invented? Charles Klow is giant, and right
Speaker 1: now it's like we really want to hear from Charlie Klow.
Speaker 1: He wants to be in the market, he wants to
Speaker 1: participate with a new productivity of the American experiment. But
Speaker 1: more than anything, it's Charlie Klow saying, try to remove
Speaker 1: yourself from the strategy babble and get back to first principles.
Speaker 1: Here's Charles Clow on productivity.
Speaker 2: I think there's two things that really prop up equities
Speaker 2: as we look through the rest of the decade, and
Speaker 2: of course I'm looking beyond this. One is productivity. Productivity
Speaker 2: is clearly driving profits and disinflation, which has been going
Speaker 2: on for forty years. It was interrupted a bit by
Speaker 2: the COVID response and the liquidity that was thrown into
Speaker 2: the economy from that standpoint, but I think when you
Speaker 2: look at how things looked longer term, remember interest rates
Speaker 2: and inflation came down for forty years and then of
Speaker 2: course COVID interrupted. So the question is what were the
Speaker 2: reasons they came down and are those reasons still good?
Speaker 2: And I think the reasons are largely demographics. What balance
Speaker 2: chefs look like in the private sector, which are still
Speaker 2: pretty large and heavily liability oriented, and thirdly productivity those
Speaker 2: are still there, so we think that disinflation and interest
Speaker 2: rates continues.
Speaker 1: Charles Klow Forever of Boston and Colonial g Charles Klow
Speaker 1: always with Meryll Lynch. I want to point out two
Speaker 1: different kinds of interview contrasts on Bloomberg surveillance this week.
Speaker 1: The first one is at Gina Martin Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1: She was on fire yesterday using fundamental and technical analysis
Speaker 1: to say she's really not sure about the banks. And
Speaker 1: we saw JP Morgan trade off here over two standard
Speaker 1: deviations this morning. And at the same time you've got
Speaker 1: someone like Chris Whalen saying we're really not sure about
Speaker 1: the banks, coming from a totally different world. And I
Speaker 1: think this is really important to listen to different kinds
Speaker 1: of guests and whether they come to the same conclusion.
Speaker 1: And the other way to look at this, as we
Speaker 1: saw yesterday on single best idea, is Dennis Gartman and
Speaker 1: Ian Lingen coming to a completely opposite conclusion of where
Speaker 1: the ten year yield will go and what rates will do,
Speaker 1: and of course what the thirty year mortgage will do.
Speaker 1: Gartman's looking for some persistency of higher rates if in
Speaker 1: need a breakthroughout to some new regime of higher rates,
Speaker 1: and Ian Lingoln's got the call of the year if
Speaker 1: it happens out. He looks for the ten year yield
Speaker 1: to drive under four percent. It's been a wonderful week
Speaker 1: thanks to the surveillance team, and all I can say
Speaker 1: is single best idea look for us on Apple car
Speaker 1: play on YouTube under Bloomberg Podcasts, and single best idea
Speaker 1: always on Apple Podcasts.