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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Are you going to place a bet? Or walk?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 3: This is our experts guide to Betting series, NBA Edition.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Maria Marino. Excited to be joined by

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Speaker 3: Action Network senior writer and host of The Buckets podcast

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Speaker 3: Matt Moore, along with our contributors Jay Money and Albert

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Speaker 3: Winn aka analytics capper. Guys like I said, just super

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Speaker 3: excited to be with you. And before we get into

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Speaker 3: best practices for how to bet the NBA, I just

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Speaker 3: want to go quickly around the horn and get some

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Speaker 3: more info on your background, what makes you an expert

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Speaker 3: and what makes you qualified. Matt will start with You've been.

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Speaker 1: Covering the NBA for sixteen years now. I've been ryan

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Speaker 1: professional about the NBA for sixteen seasons. I have been

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Speaker 1: betting the NBA since two thousand and then five, at

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Speaker 1: least casually and then increasingly more so. I worked as

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Speaker 1: a senior writer over at CBS Sports for quite a

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Speaker 1: while there. I've written in other places as well, covered

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Speaker 1: league inside now, been in the locker rooms, talk to

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Speaker 1: coaches and players to get that kind of inside look

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Speaker 1: at the league and I'm obsessed with all the ways

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Speaker 1: that we can find to bet on this great sport.

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Speaker 3: I love it. Obsessed. I think we all are a

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Speaker 3: little bit, Jay, what about you.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm definitely obsessed with the NBA. It's basically all

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Speaker 4: that runs through my mind. I've been basically thinking or

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Speaker 4: baiting about the NBA every day for the last ten years.

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Speaker 4: It's really the reason why I can't sleep most nights.

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Speaker 4: So I'd like to call myself an NBA expert.

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Speaker 5: Albert, Yeah, for me.

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Speaker 6: I mean we all started betting, I'm sure when we

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Speaker 6: were kids, like in middle school and high school. I bet,

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Speaker 6: you know, the Chicago Bulls are going to win the

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Speaker 6: title or things like that. But I didn't really start

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Speaker 6: getting serious, you know, leveraging models and numbers until freshman

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Speaker 6: year in college. So that was two thousand and three.

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Speaker 6: It's been a while now I'm very old. So a

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Speaker 6: great thing about this show, And sorry if I'm coming

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Speaker 6: off on a tangent here, but like, there's so many

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Speaker 6: smart people within action that I've learned so much. Like

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Speaker 6: I'm I've predominantly just focused on like money lines. I

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Speaker 6: don't even do totals, but just learning from Matt and

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Speaker 6: Jay and some of our other contributors, Like, I've learned

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Speaker 6: so much and I'm starting to integrate that into my portfolio.

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Speaker 3: Bits. I second that, Look, I love the NBA and

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Speaker 3: I've been, you know, an avid watcher for a while,

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Speaker 3: newer to the betting side specifically, but I've been inspired

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Speaker 3: listening to folks like you, and I think a lot

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Speaker 3: of fans out there of the NBA maybe are interested

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Speaker 3: in betting, but just like haven't gotten into it. So

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Speaker 3: what I want to know is how can a regular

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Speaker 3: listener out there or just a casual fan of the

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Speaker 3: NBA actually become good at betting this sport. What do

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Speaker 3: you think, Matt?

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Speaker 1: You know, I think it depends on what your level

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Speaker 1: of commitment is, right, it's such an everyday sport, and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk a little bit more about that later, but

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Speaker 1: I do think that one thing you can do is

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Speaker 1: decide if you're a situational better, if you're in numbers

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Speaker 1: or analytics better, or if you're an injury better. And

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Speaker 1: those are two different, like three different situations. So if

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Speaker 1: a team is on a back to back and you

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Speaker 1: want to like try and find angles with that that's

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Speaker 1: baked into the market, but some teams perform better and

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Speaker 1: some teams perform worse in those types different types of situations.

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Speaker 1: Some coaches approaches those things kind of differently. And motivation

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Speaker 1: is another kind of key factor here. If it's a

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Speaker 1: situational spot of motivation, you know, versus if you're a

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Speaker 1: number better, you know, looking at the market, finding where

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Speaker 1: the differences are between the different lines. Sometimes there will

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Speaker 1: be discrepancies, and the numbers that you can get you

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Speaker 1: can find those in the Action Network app. You can

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Speaker 1: build a model if you're into that sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: I certainly did. It's been a huge help to me.

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Speaker 1: It's changed a lot of how I bet. I focused

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Speaker 1: on playing the number very specifically and then working from

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Speaker 1: there backwards. And then also you can focus on injuries

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Speaker 1: and try and beat the market in terms of breaking

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Speaker 1: news and getting ahead of that. If you're a really

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Speaker 1: responsive person that's got all these notifications turned on from

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Speaker 1: various people, you can try and get ahead of the

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Speaker 1: market that way. There's all these different types of ways

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Speaker 1: that you can bet the NBA. And that's before we

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Speaker 1: even talk about props and all the other different angles

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Speaker 1: and derivatives that you can get into in the market.

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Speaker 5: There's a lot of diffferent ways.

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Speaker 1: But I think figuring out how you want to attack

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Speaker 1: the NBA is probably your first step.

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Speaker 3: Well, Albert mentioned getting into a model and having that

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Speaker 3: be sort of what he uses to bet. But Jay,

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Speaker 3: for you, how did you sort of graduate from becoming

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Speaker 3: like a casual to a more professional better.

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Speaker 4: Well, personally, this is all with me, but I had

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Speaker 4: to stop bidding parlays. When I first started bidding, I

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Speaker 4: bid a lot of parlays. Obviously, risk a little to

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Speaker 4: win a lot looks really good, but it's not good for.

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Speaker 2: Long term winning.

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Speaker 4: So when you kind of turn to an expert, you're

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Speaker 4: only bidding one. You're bidding straight up, which is just

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Speaker 4: one game at a time. Basically you're not really trying

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Speaker 4: to string them together trying to do a four or

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Speaker 4: five parlay.

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Speaker 2: So what I had to do was kind of just

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Speaker 2: focus in on bidding.

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Speaker 4: Even if it's three pigs, you're gonna split them up

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Speaker 4: and bid them all equal amounts, where it's one unit,

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Speaker 4: half unit, whatever you'd like. But that would be some

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Speaker 4: of my best advice and find what works works for

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Speaker 4: you personally.

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Speaker 3: Right, And Albert, for you, you said money lines are

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Speaker 3: really what you focus on. So how did you sort

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Speaker 3: of come to that conclusion?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, money lines and spreads. Sorry, I'm in baseball modes.

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Speaker 6: I'm thinking just money lines. But you know, like yeah,

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Speaker 6: like Matt and both Matt and Jay had really good,

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Speaker 6: very very good principles and points that you should live by.

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Speaker 6: Matt mentioned there's different types of betters. I call them

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Speaker 6: narrative betters versus numbers or analytics betters. I would say

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Speaker 6: the most successful ones are the ones that can leverash both. Right,

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Speaker 6: you have the ability to go back and forth but

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Speaker 6: also do both at the same time. I leverage a

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Speaker 6: model or analytics initially just to get the just just

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Speaker 6: to have the direction, and then after that then I'll

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Speaker 6: look into the market, I'll look into the movement, I'll

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Speaker 6: look into you know what other experts are saying things

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Speaker 6: like that. So I think if you can use a

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Speaker 6: combination of everything. But I think the three of us

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Speaker 6: can agree. If you view it as a chore or

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Speaker 6: a job, then it's not something for you. But if

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Speaker 6: it's more something you're passionate about, if you like the

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Speaker 6: NBA and you want to make some money off the NBA,

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Speaker 6: then it does it doesn't become work. It's just something

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Speaker 6: that you do and you're passionate about it.

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Speaker 3: I couldn't agree more. You know, I think people forget

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Speaker 3: with betting, and especially when you start to bet just

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Speaker 3: more frequently. It helps if you love the game. You know,

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Speaker 3: if you watch the game as a fan and you

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Speaker 3: enjoy it, it's just going to add another layer of

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Speaker 3: enjoyment for you, hopefully as long as you're doing it

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Speaker 3: in a responsible manner. So, Matt, let's kind of go

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Speaker 3: over the basics here, the pillars for betting this sport.

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Speaker 3: You know what do we just need to know going

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Speaker 3: in and like I said, don't be afraid to get

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Speaker 3: with it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So I think starting out here, I think like

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Speaker 1: the foundational stuff that you should know. Home courts are

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Speaker 1: kind of a fascinating one. In that last season, I

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Speaker 1: got him all around two and a half points, but

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Speaker 1: the books were putting it way higher than that. We

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Speaker 1: kind of saw that in the playoffs where you may

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Speaker 1: have seen at the Boston Celtics were this huge favorite

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Speaker 1: at home and then you know, a small favorite even

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Speaker 1: in Miami. They were obviously weighted very heavily there, but

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Speaker 1: it was a huge differential in terms of the on

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Speaker 1: the home and away splits. One cap or I spoke

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Speaker 1: with before this episode told me that he's got to

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Speaker 1: measure last season at four and a half both ways,

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Speaker 1: So that's a nine point flip on home court from

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Speaker 1: locational location.

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Speaker 5: That's really heavy for most sports.

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Speaker 1: Back to backs bookmakers have told me that they're worth

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Speaker 1: between one and two and a half points depending on

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Speaker 1: the location. If it's a location altitude that they're playing

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Speaker 1: on a back to back like Utah or Denver, it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a little bit more because those teams

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Speaker 1: do tend to kind of take the night off in

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Speaker 1: those situations.

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Speaker 5: One of the big keys I think.

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Speaker 1: Is, as we're doing this in the offseason, but you

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Speaker 1: should know the regular season is entirely different sport from

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. How you approach betting for the regular season

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Speaker 1: should be based off of rhythms and injuries and how

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Speaker 1: rested they are and how they're performing over the last

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Speaker 1: like significant span and those types of things, and playoffs

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Speaker 1: are very much about matchups and about how they're able

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Speaker 1: to play against that team, what the differentials are, how

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Speaker 1: the market is viewing those teams based off of narratives

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Speaker 1: and those types of elements, so you need to make

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Speaker 1: sure that you kind of approach betting the regulars. I

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Speaker 1: actually say that instead of saying like, oh, you need

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Speaker 1: to think differently about the playoffs. No no, no playoffs is

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Speaker 1: how I think most people think about the sport, which

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Speaker 1: is like, both teams are trying really hard, and both

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Speaker 1: teams really want to win, and both teams are you know,

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Speaker 1: taking advantage of tactical matchups and have done things like

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Speaker 1: read the scouting report, and that's not the case in

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Speaker 1: the regular season. Like players will honestly be like I

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Speaker 1: didn't have time to check the scouting report.

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Speaker 5: We've been on the road for four days.

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Speaker 1: We got into the hotel last night, I went out

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Speaker 1: to eat and I had a business meeting. I played

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Speaker 1: these guys before, I know how they play, and that's

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Speaker 1: kind of how it goes. So you're really kind of

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Speaker 1: looking in the regular season out of much more rhythm

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Speaker 1: based and you know, kind of less edged version from

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Speaker 1: a team perspective. There are outliers in that, and we

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Speaker 1: can talk about those later, but there are certain situations

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Speaker 1: where they do take advantage of those. And if you're

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Speaker 1: a situational better and you can find those edges by

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Speaker 1: reading our content in the Action Network app. That's like

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Speaker 1: a good way for you to be able to find

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Speaker 1: these spots where, oh, they really need to win this game,

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Speaker 1: Where oh, you know, they've been on this losing streak

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Speaker 1: and they need to really break this, they've really focused

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Speaker 1: on not letting losing streaks extend, et cetera. That I

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Speaker 1: think is where there's something to be really keep in

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Speaker 1: mind on. This is not necessarily particular to NBA, but

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Speaker 1: I do think it's worth mentioning that much like NFL

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Speaker 1: and I believe MLB is similar to this degree, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of value in the first four months of

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Speaker 1: the season when both teams are fresher, they're not positioning

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Speaker 1: themselves for draft position, and the markets haven't really figured

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Speaker 1: out or been convinced by performances.

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Speaker 5: Things get very sharp after All Star.

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Speaker 1: It's very difficult to find edges then, especially because motivation

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Speaker 1: tends to really get variant in that last two months

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Speaker 1: of the season. So you can make like make hay

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Speaker 1: when the sun is out, I think with moneyline value

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Speaker 1: in particular on dogs in the early part of the season,

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Speaker 1: and then get more conservative as the season goes along.

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Speaker 3: It's a great point, and I think when you were

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Speaker 3: describing sort of the nature between regular season and postseason,

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Speaker 3: one word I would use to describe the playoffs is

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Speaker 3: just more pure, and we use that term in describing

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Speaker 3: WNBA betting as well. But Jay, let's go to you first.

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Speaker 3: Anything else you would add to what Matt said regarding

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Speaker 3: just like the pillars of betting this sport.

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Speaker 4: I think the most simple way that I could put

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Speaker 4: it is to watch the games. I feel like if

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Speaker 4: you watch the games, no one really has time to

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Speaker 4: watch every NBA game. I definitely don't think the odds maker.

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Speaker 4: So I feel like you can see different ins and

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Speaker 4: outs with teams, with style of play, with injuries, things

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Speaker 4: like that, like maybe a guy may get banged up

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Speaker 4: in a game, he still may play the this game,

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Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean he's going to be one hundred percent.

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Speaker 4: So I feel like if you're watching the NBA games,

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Speaker 4: specifically when teams are on a back to back, I

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Speaker 4: feel like you can get a lot of somewhat inside

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Speaker 4: info just by watching the games. The oddsmakers are kind

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Speaker 4: of just throwing out numbers, but you may know, hey,

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Speaker 4: look this team is really peaking right now, or this

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Speaker 4: team isn't playing defense right now. Things like that, which

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Speaker 4: obviously you could look at the numbers, but I feel

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Speaker 4: like watching the game, that's when you can really tell

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Speaker 4: by the eye tests how good or how bad.

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Speaker 2: A team the team is playing right now. Team chemistry.

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Speaker 4: If you see them arguing on the bench, that means

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Speaker 4: their team chemistry is not the best right now. So

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Speaker 4: I feel like just simply watching the games and knowing

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Speaker 4: teams spots, you can really make a lot of money

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Speaker 4: be in the NBA.

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Speaker 3: It might sound straightforward, but it's really important. I know,

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Speaker 3: I always feel way more confident in betting something if

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Speaker 3: I've personally been watching and doing my own scot and

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Speaker 3: sort of getting a feel for some of the intangible

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Speaker 3: things that you might not pick up on in a

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Speaker 3: box score or you know, otherwise looking at numbers, listening

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Speaker 3: to the you know, the postgame press conferences that you

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Speaker 3: know helps give some clue as well. Albert, how about

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Speaker 3: you anything else that you want to throw in there?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, your question is a name a pillar in NBA betting.

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Speaker 6: I mean, for me, expect to be frustrated, especially in

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Speaker 6: the NBA regular season, whereas a daily grind betting has

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Speaker 6: changed so much since twenty fourteen twenty fifteen, load management

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Speaker 6: is normal. So you might get amazing COOV it means

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Speaker 6: absolutely nothing. You might get a COOV against you, right,

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Speaker 6: you might get negative movement that may mean nothing. We've

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Speaker 6: seen so many angles in the last two three seasons

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Speaker 6: where the star player is rolled out right before tip

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Speaker 6: off and that team plays better. Right for whatever the

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Speaker 6: case may be, maybe the role players are more motivated,

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Speaker 6: maybe the other team is less motivated because they think

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Speaker 6: it's an easy win, things like that, but expect to

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Speaker 6: be frustrated. I think that's my pillar, because the difference

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Speaker 6: between an amateur someone that casually bets versus someone that

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Speaker 6: does it day to day is we don't let emotions

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Speaker 6: or we don't let overreactions get to us. It's a

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Speaker 6: losing day, we move on and we try to win

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Speaker 6: the next.

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Speaker 3: Day on the coattails of that. Matt, what are the

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Speaker 3: unique challenges to the NBBA. We've touched on a couple

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Speaker 3: of them with load management, but anything else you'd want

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Speaker 3: to highlight.

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Speaker 1: I think that you need to be in the everyday

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Speaker 1: flow of the news of the league, which is difficult,

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Speaker 1: and it's not just the major like so and so

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Speaker 1: is talking about getting or they may trade this guy,

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Speaker 1: or they may or this guy might want out, which

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Speaker 1: is what dominates the headlines. It's the news from the

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Speaker 1: Beat reporters on things like, Hey, their flight got delayed

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Speaker 1: and they got into this city at three am for

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Speaker 1: this back to back, They're going to have had about

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Speaker 1: two hours of sleep before they have to get going

296
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Speaker 1: for shoot around, and then they're going to take their

297
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Speaker 1: afternoon nap like these, these types of disruptions are major

298
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Speaker 1: or you know reports. If you get into the granular,

299
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Speaker 1: you can kind of catch stuff from Beat writers of

300
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Speaker 1: unhappiness in the locker room or issues with team chemistry,

301
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Speaker 1: if guys are fighting on the sidelines and things like that,

302
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Speaker 1: or they look disinterested. You have to kind of catch

303
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Speaker 1: the flows of the season and understand not only what's

304
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Speaker 1: going on with this team in general, but what's going

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Speaker 1: on right now now. You don't need that in all situations.

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Speaker 1: I think that there are big picture approaches that you

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Speaker 1: can take. They kind of get you on a long

308
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Speaker 1: term basis. If you're betting enough across that, I think

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Speaker 1: that you can be okay.

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Speaker 3: For me.

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Speaker 1: There was kind of believe a couple of years ago

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Speaker 1: that injuries with the number one kind of thing to

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Speaker 1: factor in the NBA, and I'm pretty much immediately started

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Speaker 1: disagreeing with that. It's not the injuries don't matter. They do,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes there are the entire reason for an outcome.

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Speaker 1: Motivation is the number one factor in NBA betting the

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Speaker 1: regular season. Day to day, it's which team is more

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Speaker 1: motivated because it's eighty two games with the team or

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Speaker 1: more back to backs in the season, and these guys

320
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Speaker 1: are traveling so much and there's so many games they

321
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Speaker 1: simply do not get up for every single game.

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Speaker 5: Draymond Green has talked.

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Speaker 1: About this about how he said, quote, you expect me

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Speaker 1: with this engine to get up for the Kings on

325
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Speaker 1: a Tuesday. Boy, I wish the Kings had been able

326
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Speaker 1: to knock off the Warriors and the playoffs.

327
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Speaker 5: But you know, that kind of.

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Speaker 1: Shows you the motivational situation that these guys are in

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Speaker 1: a lot of nights. And you can think whatever you

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Speaker 1: want about that, but if you want to bet it,

331
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Speaker 1: you better understand it and you better know things. There

332
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Speaker 1: are small things like this team does not like that team,

333
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Speaker 1: so they're really going to want to win that game,

334
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Speaker 1: or you know, like I said, like they're really going

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Speaker 1: for the division. There was a spot last year in

336
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Speaker 1: which the Nuggets were facing the Grizzlies. They just lost

337
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,960
Speaker 1: to them in Memphis in the game that they pretty

338
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Speaker 1: clearly did not give great effort in on the road

339
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Speaker 1: on a back to back. But if they won this

340
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Speaker 1: game at home versus the Memphis Grizzlies, they were going

341
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Speaker 1: to be about an eighty percent or higher chance to

342
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Speaker 1: secure the number one seed in the West.

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Speaker 5: It was a great opportunity. I hammered the Nuggets.

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Speaker 1: They blew that team out of the water, and also

345
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Speaker 1: Brandon Clark got injured, and then later John Morant you

346
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 1: may have heard, went to an establishment and had fun

347
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Speaker 1: on social media. So regardless, that game meant a lot

348
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:14,360
Speaker 1: to the Nuggets and they came through in that situation.

349
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Speaker 1: Trying to guess tactical adjustments in the playoffs, he is

350
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Speaker 1: really challenging because you have times where you're like, oh,

351
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Speaker 1: coach is going to do this because it's obvious that

352
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Speaker 1: they need this, and he just doesn't do it.

353
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Speaker 5: For whatever reason. He might know more, he might know less,

354
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Speaker 5: doesn't do it.

355
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Speaker 1: And as I mentioned kind of earlier, like I said,

356
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Speaker 1: the drop off after All Star is extreme. You better

357
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 1: be really sharp to be able to bet heavy into

358
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 1: the NBA after All Star break, both with how sharp

359
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 1: the lines get, with the bookmakers having more numbers to

360
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 1: base their sample on, and with how different teams motivations

361
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:45,600
Speaker 1: are after the All Star break.

362
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Speaker 3: I want to make a note for the record on something.

363
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 3: Even though Matt expressed that he would have preferred that

364
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Speaker 3: the Kings beat the Warriors, he did correctly predict that

365
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Speaker 3: the Warriors would win the series when he was on

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Speaker 3: our show on Action Network Green Dot Daily, and he

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Speaker 3: is also mentioned yes round of applause. He has also

368
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Speaker 3: mentioned this idea of narrative a few times, and I

369
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Speaker 3: think that's a theme with the NBA where it might

370
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Speaker 3: be more narrative based than other sports. And then one

371
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Speaker 3: final thing I wanted to amplify that Matt just said

372
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Speaker 3: was just that there's so much information out there and

373
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 3: you would think that that's a good thing, but you

374
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,199
Speaker 3: have to be able to interpret it properly. You have

375
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Speaker 3: to have a little bit of media literacy and be

376
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Speaker 3: able to sift through the oversaturation of media coverage in

377
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Speaker 3: the NBA. So I do think that can be a challenge,

378
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,480
Speaker 3: but real quick, any other challenges that we want to

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00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,119
Speaker 3: point out specific to you. Jay will go first and

380
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Speaker 3: then I'll ask Albert to jump in.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just went to say in what Matt was saying, motivation,

382
00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 4: that was my biggest one. I feel like a lot

383
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 4: of people hadn't really realized that. Obviously, if there's eighty

384
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 4: two games in the season, these guys are playing back

385
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 4: to back, They're playing three games.

386
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Speaker 2: And four nights.

387
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Speaker 4: So, like you said, motivation is the biggest thing in

388
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Speaker 4: my opinion, he kind of took my answer there.

389
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Speaker 2: But it's all good.

390
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 4: But it's all about because I bet on spots, I

391
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 4: bet on server spots. They could be the worst team

392
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 4: in the NBA going up against the best team, and

393
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Speaker 4: guess what if they have a bigger game the next day.

394
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Speaker 4: I'm going to take the worst team in the league

395
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Speaker 4: catching all those points because I feel like, motivationally, the

396
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,199
Speaker 4: team could be looking ahead to a different game. So

397
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Speaker 4: it's all about looking at the schedule. I'll probably do

398
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,880
Speaker 4: this a little better than anybody. I'll look a whole

399
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,439
Speaker 4: week ahead of games just to kind of find spots,

400
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,360
Speaker 4: know where I want to fade the teams, know where

401
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,120
Speaker 4: I want to back the teams. As well, so it's

402
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 4: not just about today. You have to look at the

403
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 4: games that they just played. In the games that they

404
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 4: have on Dick as well, it's all about spots, It's

405
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 4: all about betting motivation. For me, those are the main pillars.

406
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, for me, I think Jay and I are very

407
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 6: similar in the way we handicap money lines and spreads

408
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,679
Speaker 6: and things like that as we look at situational you know,

409
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 6: spots and things like that. Like Jay said, Matt mentioned,

410
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 6: motivation is not only motivation game to game, but you

411
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Speaker 6: might even see motivation in the game quarter to quarter,

412
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 6: half to half. So those are great potentials to kind

413
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Speaker 6: of jump in as well. And I do want to

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Speaker 6: shout out the rest of our crew. Some like Joe Delera,

415
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 6: who focuses on props, right, he's really good. Let's say

416
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 6: he thinks Quentin Grimes is going to have a big

417
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 6: shooting night. He's going to ladder that guy from you

418
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,160
Speaker 6: know one and a half to two and a half

419
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 6: to three and a half to four and a half

420
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 6: threes and cash three, three or four of those bets.

421
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 6: So he's very very sharp. If he finds an angle,

422
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 6: he's going to really attack it. Someone like Matt or Brandon,

423
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 6: they're going to really build a portfolio around futures market

424
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Speaker 6: or what they predict is going to happen in the

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Speaker 6: next few months. So my I guess my advice to

426
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Speaker 6: just round it all out is just find your niche

427
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 6: within the sport, within the NBA, focus on that and

428
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 6: become like a master of that and then learn. That's

429
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,479
Speaker 6: what I've done is learn from other people who focus

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Speaker 6: on other stuff.

431
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Speaker 3: Well, we're going to get into props and live betting

432
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Speaker 3: a bit more. But you know, part of becoming an

433
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Speaker 3: expert and a master is figuring out the tools that

434
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Speaker 3: you need to have in your toolkit to be successful.

435
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 3: So what are some important resources and or data points

436
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 3: that you use all the time, Matt. We have, of

437
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 3: course our action app, which is a wonderful tool, but

438
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Speaker 3: please expand.

439
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, the Action Network cap will give you

440
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 1: a projection based off of our numbers of what we

441
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: expect that spread to be, and so you can kind

442
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 1: of get a sense of what one model kind of

443
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: disagrees with. I've got my own that focuses a lot

444
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 1: on half court and transition data minds, not player specific.

445
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 1: So sometimes I have weaknesses in there about having to

446
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 1: adjust manually to when players are out and trying to

447
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 1: get the value on those kind of guys.

448
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 5: That's a challenge for me. That's where I start.

449
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 1: Bet Labs is then a great tool that we've got

450
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 1: over at the Action Network. It gives you a sense

451
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: of what trends play into these different situational spots if

452
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 1: you should at least check your work.

453
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 5: Again against it.

454
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 1: Like, trends are not a reason this is solely better game,

455
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 1: but if you've got an inkling of, oh, I bet

456
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 1: this team's really bad on back to backs, you can

457
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 1: use bet labs and actually check and see how does

458
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 1: this team or this coach do on back to backs

459
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 1: or three and four or different situational spots. How do

460
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: they do at different points in the year under a

461
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 1: certain coach, Because every team's kind of got different rhythm.

462
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 5: You can see all those types of things in bet Labs.

463
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: And then for me, the other thing is when we're

464
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,159
Speaker 1: looking at the we talked about how many often players

465
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: are out. I always want to know how does a

466
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: team perform when that player is on the court and

467
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 1: when they are sitting out a game entirely? How does

468
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 1: that teamform against the spread? For years the Sixers were

469
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 1: absolutely wretched without Joelle Embiid on the floor if he

470
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 1: sat out the game, their ATS record was a nightmare

471
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: against the spread. And yet over the last couple of

472
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: seasons that's flipped around and the Sixers are a much

473
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 1: better spot to bet when MBAT is out. There are

474
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: certain players that if they're out, you absolutely want to

475
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: fade that team. There's no number you can probally account

476
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 1: for Nikola Yokich being out for the Nuggets, but some

477
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 1: other players. The market will overreact sometimes to those and

478
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 1: you have to keep an eye on those numbers as well.

479
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 3: Very good point, and Jay, I feel like for you

480
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 3: there's a lot of sort of natural gut and I

481
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 3: don't want to diminish that at all, because again, you

482
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 3: are watching the tape and you are invested in and

483
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 3: paying attention to the information that is being reported. But

484
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 3: any other tools that you find particularly helpful for betting NBA.

485
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 4: Well, first off, I use the Action Network app a

486
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 4: lot for a ton of different things, but I really

487
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 4: like the two main things that work for me. I

488
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 4: like to look at trends how do teams work in

489
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,719
Speaker 4: this particular spot, And I also like to look at

490
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 4: risk advantages will like, look, guys, we have a team

491
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 4: that's here playing in their fifth game in seven nights,

492
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: versus team that's coming off two days risk, Like, what

493
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 4: are we doing here? I mean with these teams playing

494
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 4: eighty two games a season, planning almost every day, I

495
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 4: feel like risk advantage is a huge thing. They actually

496
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 4: did a study on this a few years back as well,

497
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 4: just showing how will certain teams do when they're rated

498
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: and when they're not racid basically like sleepwalking zombies. Right,

499
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 4: So look at those risk advantage, look at teams that

500
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 4: are playing on back to back three games in four nights.

501
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 4: Sometimes it'll be put into the spr it's going to

502
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 4: be put into the spread obviously, But I'd like to say,

503
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 4: as a guy that watched the games, I don't think

504
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 4: a lot of times it doesn't matter in my opinion.

505
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 4: So risk advantage is something that's worked out for me

506
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: that I like to put into my tools.

507
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, you got to pay attention to that schedule and

508
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: also the minutes, you know, and how many miles these

509
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 3: players are putting on their tires.

510
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 6: Albert, anything else I want to shout out, Jay, money

511
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 6: is money. I actually timed to see how long you

512
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 6: will it take for him to say rest advantage is

513
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 6: actually one of the big biggest lessons I've learned from

514
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 6: Jay in the last couple of years is to really

515
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 6: look into the rest advantage not only game to game,

516
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 6: but these games really have a compounding effect on each other.

517
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 6: So if they're playing a really really heavy schedule one week,

518
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 6: you know, expect them to be a little tired the

519
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 6: next week, so it could last a game or two.

520
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 6: So so Jay, I timed you at like twenty eight

521
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 6: minutes before you said that. Some other tools, I mean, yes,

522
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 6: the app is great. I use the app definitely, But

523
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 6: the things that I like to really leverage in my

524
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 6: models personally is the lineup, the line the matchups and

525
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 6: the lineup. So let's say Joelle Embiid is out, so

526
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 6: if you plug in like a Paul Reid, how well

527
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 6: did they do both offensively and defensively. And then the

528
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 6: other thing that I'm very very big on is pace

529
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 6: of play. A lot of people don't realize just teams

530
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 6: just play much faster than others, and then some teams

531
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,919
Speaker 6: like the Mavericks just play really really slow. Does that

532
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 6: mean their offense is bad? It doesn't. It really just

533
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 6: means that you have to look into their efficiency numbers,

534
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 6: especially in the half court.

535
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 3: Did you have the over or under on you know

536
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 3: how many minutes befo for Jay mentioned bress Albert.

537
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,199
Speaker 6: I actually way under. I thought he would mention it

538
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 6: and on the first or second you know question there,

539
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 6: But that was good.

540
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. So jumping off of what you said with pace

541
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 3: of play, that's hugely important. And you know, every team's

542
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 3: identity is a little different. I think it especially comes

543
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 3: into play with prop betting. So let's get into that

544
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: just a little bit. You know, what do you make

545
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: of the availability, Matt of all of these different props?

546
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: Is it overwhelming to you? How do you sort of

547
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 3: zero in on it? Like, are there any props that

548
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: you in particular like to focus on. Let's talk about that.

549
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a couple of things that to

550
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: keep in mind with prop betting. One, we've got some

551
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: of the amazing prop betters at Action Joe Dealra, Jim Turvey,

552
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. Those guys absolutely kill it with analyzing the

553
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: props market. I'll be honest with you, it's a weakness

554
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: for mine that I'm really focused on trying to improve

555
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: this season, like we're all trying to always kind of

556
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: get better, and that's an area where I really want

557
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: to take some time over on our podcast Buckets, We're

558
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: gonna be doing a how to Bet Props episode. I'm

559
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 1: just gonna be taking notes religiously, trying to catch up

560
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: on things. One thing with the props market, I will

561
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: say is when these odds post, usually the day of

562
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 1: the game in the morning, once the injury first injury

563
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: report comes out, you have a window there and those

564
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: props will get hit. You see a lot of extreme

565
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 1: movement on not just where those numbers will go and

566
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 1: the prop market as far as twenty three and a

567
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: half points versus twenty five and a half points, but

568
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 1: the jews associated with it as well. And so that's

569
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 1: why if you turn on notifications for our great props

570
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: better than the Action Network AP, you're gonna get those

571
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: notifications and know like, oh this this market is probably

572
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: soft because they've bet it immediately rather than waiting, and

573
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna have an opportunity to go that way. So

574
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: for me, I think that that's like the big key

575
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: with profitting is finding when those lines are soft early,

576
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 1: when maybe there's a number that isn't accounting for something.

577
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: Or you'll even see sometimes that a coach has said, yeah,

578
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: we might rest this player tomorrow night, and so they're

579
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: back up, but that will slip past the books because

580
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 1: it hasn't been officially listed because they're on a back

581
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: to back. That backup will have his same number, and

582
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,959
Speaker 1: you can hit that when it first comes out, before

583
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: they say, hey, he's probably gonna set out tonight, that

584
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 1: star players out and that backup winds up going way

585
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: over with more minutes.

586
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, getting on these early can certainly be advantageous. Jay,

587
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: how do you feel about betting props in the NBA?

588
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 4: Perfectly honest, It's not something that I do a lot,

589
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 4: but I still I do know how to do it.

590
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 4: And part of because I watched the games and I

591
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 4: listen to the postgame interviews. So with that you can

592
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 4: you can get a lot of inside info. Hey look

593
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 4: this guy, and also matchups as well, Like just watching

594
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 4: the games, you know this this point guard can't guard

595
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 4: Steph Curry, I know he's going crazy tonight. Or this

596
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 4: team doesn't really have a real center or a true

597
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 4: big man down there. I know Joel Embiid or Nikola

598
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 4: Joki is definitely gonna get over twelve and a half

599
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: rebounds tonight. And also, like say, listening to the postgame interviews,

600
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 4: the players will literally tell you, hey, I've been bad,

601
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 4: I hadn't been hitting my threes, or I need to

602
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 4: focus on scoring a little bit more. They're they're basically

603
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 4: telling you the next game they're gonna be shooting a

604
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 4: bunch of shots. So I feel like if you're kind

605
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 4: of just staying locked in and looking at the matchups,

606
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: watching the games, listening to postgame interviews, they can be

607
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 4: a great look at, great insight into getting in on

608
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 4: some of those early numbers with the props.

609
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 3: Again, you might need to be a translator or have

610
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 3: a translator at times to read between the lines and

611
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 3: what some of these cryptic, you know, podium responses are

612
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 3: from coaches and players. But again to your point, if

613
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: you're watching something, you know you could hear a rumbling

614
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 3: about an injury, but if you actually saw the injury

615
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 3: happen and you see all those different angles, you can

616
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,479
Speaker 3: sort of assess just how serious that injury is, how

617
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 3: it could affect things moving forward. And then also, you know,

618
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: you hear this term a lot with like this like

619
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: coach speak, but like kyp like know your personnel. I

620
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 3: feel like that has to help on the prop side

621
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 3: of things. But Albert, let me just ask you more generally,

622
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 3: what is your ideal betting opportunity heading into an NBA game?

623
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: Can you describe sort of a scenario where like, oh,

624
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: you know, I need.

625
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 6: To bet that there's three that really pop out? And

626
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 6: it happened during the playoffs. So one was the twenty

627
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 6: twenty NBA Finals. After Game one, it was clear that

628
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 6: Danny Green wasn't able to play in that series, like

629
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 6: Miami was just going to play him off the court.

630
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 6: So why as a better or a fan of the NBA,

631
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 6: would you expect him to play in game two or

632
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 6: Game three or game four. So that was an awesome

633
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 6: opportunity to hammer all of his prop unders right, because

634
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 6: you expect someone to play instead of Danny Green. Similar

635
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 6: to D'Angel Russell this year against Nuggets, when Jamal Murray

636
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 6: is taking him off the dribbolt time after time after

637
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 6: time again and he can't score on the offensive side,

638
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 6: you can't expect D'Angel Russell to play in games two, three, four.

639
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 6: He'll play, but you know his minutes will go down.

640
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 6: And then we saw the same on the The other

641
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 6: side of it was Christian Brown in the in the Championship,

642
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 6: in the finals. Right once he got on, you could

643
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 6: tell that this guy is a winning player. He's making

644
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 6: all these winning plays and b he's getting the passing lanes,

645
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 6: he's blocking shots. So I kept hammering Christian Brown, you know,

646
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 6: blocks and steals. So to me, those are the great opportunities,

647
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 6: especially in like a playoff series, because you can kind

648
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 6: of predict how the series is going from a personnel standpoint.

649
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 6: On the regular season, that's that's much harder because then,

650
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 6: like Jay said, you have to have to actually watch

651
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 6: the games. I mentioned Quentin Grimes, he might have, you know,

652
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 6: went seven for seven on Saturday night. You can't expect

653
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 6: him to be that good on Sunday night, right, so

654
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 6: maybe you would regress him. So things like that.

655
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: Okay, Oh, Jay's raising his hand For those who can't see, Jay,

656
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: you hanted to say something.

657
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 4: I just I really wanted to say this that I

658
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 4: absolutely I mean, I'd like to call myself revenge game.

659
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: Jay.

660
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,959
Speaker 4: One thing I really figured out in the NBA is

661
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 4: the revenge spots when a team, especially when they got

662
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 4: blown out by like twenty points. That next time those

663
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 4: two teams play, you bet you're ass they're.

664
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: Gonna remember getting blown out.

665
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 4: So revenge spots in the NBA may not work as

666
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 4: good in some of the other sports, which I still

667
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 4: like the spot in any sport, but in NBA particular,

668
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 4: when they're playing four times a year, I absolutely love

669
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: revenge spots. You can look at the history of when

670
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 4: the teams have last play. It can even be from

671
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 4: the year before, like a playoff of revenge and oh

672
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 4: my gods, I've made so much money with this guy's

673
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 4: just please, if you're listening to this pot list of

674
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 4: pay attention to the revenge spots. It can be from

675
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 4: playoffs last year or an in season. Revenge spots are

676
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 4: something to pay attention to.

677
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 3: I love it. I can't believe we made it this

678
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: song without mentioning revenge spots. And again, I think this

679
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 3: is one of those intangible things that you're not gonna

680
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 3: really pick up on just by looking at the stats

681
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: and really not paying attention. And it's I think especially

682
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 3: import and in the NBA when players switch teams all

683
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 3: the time, and that sort of brings me to Matt

684
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 3: let me ask you about just the NBA off season,

685
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 3: and it's one of the most like, I mean, it's

686
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 3: one of the busiest times in the NBA calendar is

687
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 3: free agency. So do you have those things that affect

688
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 3: how you're going to bet NBA teams from a future standpoint?

689
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well then we just kind of came up in

690
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 5: our rundown.

691
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: In my response to it was quote ha ha ha

692
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: ha ha ha. Because look, the NBA reshuffles the entire

693
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 1: deck every off season, right, Bradley Beal is the Phoenix

694
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: Sun as we're recording this, all of these changes. Damian

695
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: Lillard and James Harden are very likely to be on

696
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: different teams as we're recording this, like it happens all

697
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: the time. And that's before we get into those meaningful

698
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: players that are the role guys that don't get as

699
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: much quote unquote ink or pixels, so to speak, but

700
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: they really do matter in terms of making teams better.

701
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: And so you have to be able to track all

702
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: these things. And it takes me like that's the off season.

703
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: That's what we do in the off season is we

704
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: go through and go like, oh, yeah, that guy sign

705
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: with this team. Oh yeah, they traded that guy over

706
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: here now.

707
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 5: And trying to remember who plays for who.

708
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: It's very much as a who he played for situation

709
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: every year in the NBA for everybody, But you gotta

710
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: keep track of those things.

711
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 5: The only other thing I would say.

712
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: Is you need to understand how wind totals are built,

713
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: about the power rating that the books use to establish

714
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: team's strength, how those translate out to win totals, how

715
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 1: those put into the numbers for the title division, how

716
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: all these markets are derivative off of how these the

717
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,719
Speaker 1: books build those numbers, and how you can find edges

718
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: against how the books have built those situations. And a

719
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: lot of that does get into how you evaluate not

720
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: only what moves made more of a difference than got covered,

721
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: but also what moves may have been overestimated in the market,

722
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: what moves have driven a lot of popular betting based

723
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: off of an expectation.

724
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 5: Of, oh, it's a big name move.

725
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 1: Betting against that narrative, like we talked about, I think

726
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: is part of going into your futures betting as well.

727
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 3: Listen, you got a prep I mean I think if

728
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 3: you don't, you end up being like me, where you know,

729
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 3: October rolls around because the NBA season like starts in

730
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 3: late October. Now weird, and you're like, oh, really, so

731
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 3: and so is in a different uniform. Like it takes

732
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 3: a minute to sort of process, not to use a

733
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: Joel Mbid reference, but to process you know, who's who's

734
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 3: playing for who Albert? Do you find that super challenging?

735
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 3: You know, Matt talked about like the first three four

736
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 3: months of this season, how do you approach that?

737
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, player movement is a big thing. Because

738
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,399
Speaker 6: then that made Dove tell into what Jay was saying

739
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 6: in terms of revenge spots. Maybe gave Vincent when he

740
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 6: goes back to Miami, He's gonna have an amazing game

741
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 6: against Liar Lillard, right or something like that. But yeah,

742
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,240
Speaker 6: that's a big loss. By the way, it's a big loss.

743
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 6: With that said, I mean, I still take it very

744
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 6: very day to day, especially when it's in season. In

745
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 6: the grind. Yes, I'll look ahead and schedule, like what

746
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 6: Jay's doing in terms of finding spots in terms of

747
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 6: rest advantages or disadvantages. Right, there's always two sides to everything.

748
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 6: But once the season starts, you kind of have an

749
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 6: idea through you know, your research. And again, this is

750
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,439
Speaker 6: a betting pod. Right, So when you look at let's

751
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 6: go let's say you go to fandel and you go

752
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 6: to the NBA page and you see all the different

753
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 6: wind totals or you see all the different spreads. The

754
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 6: more you do it, the more you kind of already

755
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 6: have the story in front of you. So now you're

756
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 6: just trying to find the edges or the soft spots

757
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 6: of those stories. Because if the worst team, let's say,

758
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 6: no offense to San Antonio and they're traveling to if

759
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 6: they're traveling to Phoenix, right, but they're only getting two

760
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 6: and a half points three and a half, something really

761
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 6: weird like that, Why are the Sun's only two point

762
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 6: favorites at home against the worst team? Like Jay said,

763
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 6: those are things that you want to investigate and really

764
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 6: research into. So the more you look at it, I

765
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 6: think the best best best way to learn is through

766
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 6: experience and always asking questions. But yes, definitely keep keep

767
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 6: keep a foot on on, you know, player of movement,

768
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 6: potential movement, things like that, because if Bradley BeO thinks

769
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 6: he's going to get traded in two weeks, he might

770
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 6: not care for the next two weeks of games, right,

771
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 6: So look into that as.

772
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 3: Well identifying those shady looking lines. I feel like is

773
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 3: half the battle with NBA betting. And look, we're gonna

774
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 3: wrap this up here shortly, but a couple more things.

775
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: I did want to just touch on live betting the

776
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: NBA and we sort of started to touch on this

777
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 3: just in terms of peace of play and personnel and

778
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 3: all that. Which one of you wants to talk about

779
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 3: live betting, Do either any of you have a strong up?

780
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,879
Speaker 4: Jay raise his hand, Jay, Yeah, I'll talk about I'll

781
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 4: talk about whatever.

782
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 2: You guys know that.

783
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 4: But one thing I'll say with live betting, you need

784
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 4: to be Well, you don't have to because I've made

785
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 4: live bits without watching the game. But the best thing

786
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 4: is you want to be you want to watch the

787
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,399
Speaker 4: game once again. There might be a certain the best

788
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 4: player may have five fouls like in with through three quarters,

789
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 4: Like you need to know those type of things. You

790
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 4: need to know how the game is being called. There

791
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 4: may be somebody may be off that particular night as

792
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 4: well as far as like they're shot. So I feel

793
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 4: like live betting, there's someone that told me a while ago,

794
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,280
Speaker 4: make sure you're watching the game if you're really taking

795
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,439
Speaker 4: it serious and really want to win, like I'm sure

796
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 4: you do. Make sure you're actually watching that game, because

797
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 4: then you're gonna also see when the momentum changes as well.

798
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 4: So momentum shifts is one of the biggest things in

799
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 4: live betting in my opinion. There could be a team

800
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 4: that's up by ten or fifteen points, but you know

801
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 4: that they're probably gonna let off the gas in the

802
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. So you knowing those certain type of teams

803
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 4: that they're gonna let off after a blowout. If a

804
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 4: team is up twenty points heading to the fourth quarter,

805
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 4: I'll tell you in today's NBA, you probably want to

806
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 4: take the points like they're gonna let off the gas

807
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 4: put the bench players in not take the game as seriously,

808
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 4: whereas the other team they're gonna try their best to

809
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 4: come back and they just might come back and win.

810
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 2: So those would be my tips for live betting.

811
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 6: Maria, I, I do have one point when it comes

812
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 6: to you know, second half or live betting, And I'll

813
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 6: say this, like, if Team A is up on Team

814
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 6: B by thirty points and they were two point underdogs

815
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 6: heading into the game, that does not mean you blindly

816
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 6: bet Team B because they were favored initially right, So,

817
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 6: whether you're watching the game or not, don't be that

818
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 6: guy who's like, Okay, you know, the Sacramento Kings are

819
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,720
Speaker 6: four point favorites at home, but they're down by twenty

820
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 6: five at halftime. Like that doesn't mean you should always

821
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 6: bet the Kings. Maybe there's a spot. Maybe the Kings

822
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 6: went zero for twelve on three points in the first

823
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 6: half and then they might get hot in the second half.

824
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 5: Things like that.

825
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 6: But I'm just saying, don't blindly bet a team that

826
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 6: is down big just because you expect it to be

827
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 6: a close game. You just never know.

828
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 3: Don't be that guy or Gal matt is raising his hand,

829
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 3: But I just wanted to say before I get to you,

830
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 3: Matt is like off of what Jay said and Albert like,

831
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: basketball's a game of runs. It's the cliche phrase, but

832
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 3: you have to be aware of that. And also, what

833
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 3: I think I think is great about the NBA for

834
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 3: live betting is you have media timeouts and you have like,

835
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 3: you have all these opportunities where okay, you know, halfway

836
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,760
Speaker 3: through the first gonna be a timeout and et cetera,

837
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 3: and halftime, and you actually have a moment to sort

838
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 3: of analyze and make a decision and do do a

839
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 3: live bet now, Matt, did I just steal your thunder?

840
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 4: No.

841
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 1: I think that's a great point though, in terms of

842
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 1: knowing when to wait for them, especially with the delay

843
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: on the broadcast, knowing that you're behind the feed that

844
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 1: the books are getting, and being aware of that and

845
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: playing for those timeouts.

846
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 5: I think this is a really smart thing to say.

847
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: I was going to add that to me that the

848
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 1: value on live betting is almost entirely first half, because

849
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, what you'll see is if a favorite,

850
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 1: like Albert mentioned the Kings. If it's the first quarter

851
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 1: and the Kings go down twenty five to eight, what

852
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: that basically means is they came out sluggish, one team

853
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 1: hit a bunch of threes. That's a situation that's probably like,

854
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 1: that's good even out Like how many I see so

855
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: often that by halftime the Kings are either right back

856
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 1: in it or leading. And especially the number is important here.

857
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 1: If the Kings are a substantial favorite, that power rating sticky,

858
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: so it's gonna be harder to get a good number

859
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: on the Kings. But if you have a dog in

860
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 1: that situation, that's facing some sort of weird outlier quarter

861
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,879
Speaker 1: start first eight minutes of the game, especially once those

862
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 1: bench minutes start hitting about the eight minute mark, when

863
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: when Stars starts subbing out, that's when you can find

864
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 1: opportunities to go back the other way. Like for me,

865
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 1: that's a bet a lot of it. And then also

866
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 1: if the dog is leading halfway through that second quarter,

867
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: there have been studies done that have shown that it's

868
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,439
Speaker 1: actually better to bet that dog as a favorite at

869
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: that point once the line inverts in the second quarter

870
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: and on, rather than playing back against that favorite. So

871
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 1: if you're gonna live bet, you watch the game, understand

872
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: what the number was before, compare that to the current market,

873
00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: and time it right.

874
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 5: Like that's the three I think bett is for live

875
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 5: banying the NBA.

876
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 3: The big three of live betting. I love it all Right,

877
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 3: We are going to be done here in just a moment,

878
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 3: but we are gonna end on this. And the question

879
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 3: is what is the ultimate thrill betting an NBA game?

880
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 3: So this could be an experience that you've had or

881
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 3: maybe one that you're dreaming of having. H Jay, why

882
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,720
Speaker 3: don't why don't we start with you ultimate thrill betting

883
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 3: on the NBA?

884
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 4: The ultimate thrill for me. This is actually an experience

885
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 4: that I had. It was the Toronto Raptors. They were

886
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 4: all by twenty points versus Cargo Bulls. In this most

887
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 4: previous season, it was the play in tournament as well.

888
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,439
Speaker 4: So the ultimate thrill to me is a team being

889
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:44,399
Speaker 4: down twenty plus points and coming back to win, which

890
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 4: we see a lot more often these days, and it

891
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 4: never used to happen, but now in the past few

892
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 4: years it happens all the time. Teams letting their foot

893
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 4: off the gas. That's the ultimate thrill for me, basically

894
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 4: thinking the game is over and there come they chip away,

895
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 4: come all the way back to win. Almost ran up

896
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 4: a mountain that they made.

897
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 2: I was.

898
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 4: I was ecstatic over there. So I think that's the

899
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 4: hugest thrill for me.

900
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 6: Albert throw is tough, Maria, because as betters, I think

901
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 6: we remember our losses more than our wins. I could

902
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 6: say that one hundred percent with confidence that I remember

903
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 6: every heart breaking, bone crushing loss. But there is one

904
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 6: win that really sticks out, and it's the New York Knicks.

905
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 6: They were traveling. They were playing the Portland trail Blazers.

906
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 6: I was on the over in that game. I think

907
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 6: it was two maybe two seasons ago, maybe three, but

908
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 6: they scored twenty four points in the last minute and

909
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 6: a half for me to hit the over by the hook.

910
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 6: I remember it now, Yeah, I remember it because Emanual

911
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 6: quickly the game was already done, basically done. Emmanuel quickly

912
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,320
Speaker 6: took the ball and went coast to coast for the

913
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 6: dunk as time expired, and I was like, wait, what

914
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 6: that really happened? They're down by twenty and he went

915
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 6: he goes for this dunk, and yeah, that's a big

916
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 6: thrill that I can remember today.

917
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 3: Unreal, Matt, what do you got Mine's that game?

918
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 5: It's futures.

919
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,720
Speaker 1: We love the futures market over at Bucket at Buckets,

920
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: and we talk about this all the time. Jay warned

921
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: you on parlays in terms of game by game, and

922
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: I think he's probably accurate and right on in that assessment.

923
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 1: The awards market is a great one to set up

924
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: parlays end. You can absolutely if you bet throughout the

925
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 1: season and you find positions and you build a portfolio

926
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: and you take things like Jokic and Jaron Jackson, and

927
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: Jokic and Jaron Jackson and Palo Bancaro when those numbers

928
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: are longer, and then Embiid starts to take the lead

929
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: for MVP, and you come back with Embiid and Jaron

930
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 1: Jackson and you bet it as the season goes along.

931
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 1: The payoff is absolutely terrific. It's a huge advantage that

932
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 1: I think I found in the market to be able

933
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 1: to cover it, you know, month by month, week by week,

934
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: seeing how these awards go, reacting to straw poles, understanding

935
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 1: how these awards are voted on. To me, like having

936
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: those parlays paid off at big numbers, which is the

937
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: product of following the league throughout the entire a two

938
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: game schedule, that to me is the best thal.

939
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 3: I just feel like when it builds like that overtime,

940
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 3: if you actually do get it right, there's such a

941
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 3: payoff at the end, which is amazing. I have to

942
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 3: say I agree with Jay in terms of like what

943
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 3: makes watching a basketball game thrilling in general, right when

944
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 3: it's just like a crazy comeback in the second half

945
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 3: and some of the unexpected stuff. So I absolutely love that.

946
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,959
Speaker 3: I love talking ball with you guys. This has been

947
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 3: a blast. Once again. This is our Experts Guide to

948
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 3: betting Series NBA. Addition, for Matt Moore, Albert Winn and

949
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 3: J Money. I'm Maria Marino. Thanks so much for listening.

950
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 3: Make sure you get more buckets on our podcast Buckets

951
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 3: in both NBA and WNBA season. Also be on the

952
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 3: lookout for our other expert guides to sports betting, with

953
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 3: episodes being released throughout the summer. Right here on the

954
00:44:54,280 --> 00:45:00,360
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel, Help You.

955
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

956
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem.

957
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 6: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

958
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 6: hundred Gambler