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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing Joe. I'm saying it to Cat'll.

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Speaker 1: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: It's is the ultimate kabak.

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Speaker 2: And we are coming away.

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Speaker 1: What up?

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Speaker 2: What up? Everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network NFL Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, and this is our AFC.

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Speaker 2: Betting Preview Part one.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the AFC East and the AFC

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Speaker 1: North in this episode. And joining me the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, one of the sharpest NFL betters in

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Speaker 1: the game, Stucky stuck.

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Speaker 2: What is good? My brother?

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Speaker 4: One day closer excited as always to talk some NFL

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Speaker 4: betting with you.

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Speaker 3: Go through the ASC loaded ASC, I should.

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Speaker 1: Say I tagged you in the app today as discussed

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Speaker 1: our fade.

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Speaker 2: Cliff is underway.

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Speaker 4: Have you about the loads and lose? He's a louise about.

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Speaker 2: He still keeps up dry.

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Speaker 1: Right when we got off, Actually I got some some

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Speaker 1: cardinals under so.

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Speaker 2: We'll see if we find something I forgot about that.

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Speaker 3: As we're done, here see if.

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Speaker 1: We find anything else on this one, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk through every team. We'll talk their win total, just

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Speaker 1: general season outlook, you know what we kind of how

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Speaker 1: we have these teams rated, what we're looking for, you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of betting when the season comes up.

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Speaker 2: You know, we'll be doing.

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Speaker 1: Our episode that drops every Thursday during the season with

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Speaker 1: our Sunday six packs, so be sure to stay tuned

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Speaker 1: for that. And we also got tons of NFL betting

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Speaker 1: episodes weading up to week one on the Action Network podcast,

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Speaker 1: so check those out. We already got our NFC episodes

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Speaker 1: up and our guys Jolgalant has Anytime Touchdown Manifesto episode

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Speaker 1: up as well. Turner and I will also be doing

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Speaker 1: an episode every Wednesday, break it down all the top

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Speaker 1: fantasy plays and projection.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of good stuff coming on a channel.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you subscribe, make sure you leave us a

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Speaker 1: rating and review if you enjoyed the pod, and we

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Speaker 1: will keep cranking knees out. Let's kick it off with

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Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. The total is eleven and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's very high and it's juice to the over at

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Speaker 1: minus one forty If you like the under eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half. You can get it at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I still feel avoid where that Bills plus what was

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Speaker 1: it one and a half against the Chiefs bet didn't hit.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we got robbed with the way the

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Speaker 1: Bill's season came to an end. For a team with

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Speaker 1: a win total this high, it's actually rare. You know,

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Speaker 1: they went eleven and five last year. Their point differential

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Speaker 1: suggested they should have been a thirteen wind team. You know,

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Speaker 1: they actually finished two point one wins under their pythagora

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Speaker 1: and win total. I have them favored in sixteen out

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Speaker 1: of their seventeen games.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: The one thing I will say, they did get extremely

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Speaker 1: lucky when it came to injuries last year. They missed

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Speaker 1: the second fewest games in terms of adjusted games lost

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Speaker 1: per Football Outsiders. But you know, I still think this

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Speaker 1: is a quality team. You know, Tredavius White, you know

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Speaker 1: Mike start the year on pup. That's obviously not ideal,

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Speaker 1: But love Josh Allen. There's obviously some turnover here with

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Speaker 1: with Dabo going to the Giants, But I don't know,

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Speaker 1: talk to me about the Bills. I just think this

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Speaker 1: is a very solid overall team. Always have liked McDermott.

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Speaker 1: I think he's done an excellent job. You got the coach,

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Speaker 1: you got the quarterback. They'll be in good shape. But

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Speaker 1: what do you think about the win total this high?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was very excited talk about the He wasn't

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Speaker 4: said to talk about the Bills because we have to

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Speaker 4: relive last year and that was my only future. And

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Speaker 4: had them fourteen to one, thought they were one of,

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Speaker 4: if not the best rosters in the NFL. And look

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Speaker 4: you look at the adjustment of the market now. I

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Speaker 4: don't think there's any value to the Bills five to five,

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Speaker 4: six to one to win the Super Bowl. You know,

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Speaker 4: basically the same dominant team, but you know you need

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Speaker 4: a break day in the future. And they didn't know

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Speaker 4: how to squipt kick and unfortunately couldn't win a coin

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Speaker 4: toss and that'll be the last coin toss ever in

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Speaker 4: the NFL playoffs. Yeah, so yeah, typical way to end it.

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Speaker 4: So but I don't see anybody in them in the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl. But I protected them win twelve games. I

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Speaker 4: do have them favored in sixteen or seventeen. I also

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Speaker 4: like some of the spots to have, like I like

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Speaker 4: how they can face the Rams and you're going across

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Speaker 4: country for week one, right, it's not travels easy, preparations easy.

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Speaker 4: Then you get extra time for a revenge matchup against

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Speaker 4: Tennessee in your home opener because you're opening the season

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Speaker 4: on a Thursday, the only game I don't have them

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Speaker 4: favorite in and it's barely I mean, it's basically coint

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Speaker 4: was that Kansas City similar spot to last year Bills

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Speaker 4: playoff revenge at Kansas City? You know, I'll be on

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Speaker 4: there and then, by the way, then they have a

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Speaker 4: buy before they host the Packers. So it's I think

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Speaker 4: from like a nuanced perspective, I like their schedule bye.

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Speaker 4: By the way, yes, health is the only thing wherever

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Speaker 4: just completely unpredictable, but the only thing that could regress

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Speaker 4: and really hurt them. And if they have like a

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Speaker 4: season like the ratings of lat year, then you're just screwed.

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Speaker 4: Sometimes you have that in the NFL and there's no

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Speaker 4: predicting it. But everywhere else they were unlucky. Right, I

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Speaker 4: think there are zero to five and one possession games.

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Speaker 4: If you go deep, if you go two or three

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Speaker 4: levels deeper into some of their analysis and look at

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Speaker 4: you know, timing of turnovers, timing of fourth down conversions.

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Speaker 4: They were extremely unlucky, you know, from an injury perspective. Overall,

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Speaker 4: they were fortunate. They dealt with a lot of moving

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Speaker 4: parts in the offensive line and when they had certain

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Speaker 4: combinations in there the offense. I mean, you saw it

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Speaker 4: against Jacksonville at one game that sticks out. Their offensive

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Speaker 4: line took a step back. So there's a new scheme

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Speaker 4: in the offensive line. That's always something to watch with

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Speaker 4: the Bills. And then the defensive side of the ball,

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Speaker 4: you worry a bit about the age of the safeties,

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Speaker 4: which is always just the Bills have had them forever.

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Speaker 4: The last I don't know, three or four years. They've

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Speaker 4: been great on the back end of that defense. But

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Speaker 4: if there's a drop off there, you could feel that

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Speaker 4: on the defense. But the most important position to watch

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Speaker 4: is cornerback. Trey White is still not back there. You know,

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Speaker 4: obviously a number one corner. You lose Lee Levi Wallace

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Speaker 4: to the Steelers, you know, so it's a really iffy

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Speaker 4: situation at cornerback. If White can't come back, you might

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Speaker 4: go they might put him the pup list, the might

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Speaker 4: put him on the IR for a little bit, and

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Speaker 4: then he's got to get back into the flow of things.

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Speaker 4: So Kyri is a rookie, we know not the trust

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Speaker 4: rookie corners, and word in camp is that it might

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Speaker 4: be Christian Benford that is going for the number one

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Speaker 4: corner spot, if another rookie that if Trey White isn't ready,

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Speaker 4: So the secondary is a major So you concern now

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Speaker 4: Trey White comes back and is healthy. You got to

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Speaker 4: remember if they didn't have him last year and they

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Speaker 4: still were their defense was still rock solid.

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Speaker 3: Across the board.

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Speaker 4: So there's a lot to like about the Bills, but

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Speaker 4: there are some question marks, assuming even they have decent

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Speaker 4: injury luck. But yeah, I favor them in sixteen hits,

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Speaker 4: love them in a few key spots, but early on

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Speaker 4: I'm going to be watching that offensive line new scheme.

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Speaker 4: I project them at twelve, which they would have won

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Speaker 4: the Super Bowl last year. Love Bills Mafia. Have some

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Speaker 4: good friends that are Bills fans. I wish them luck

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Speaker 4: this year. Well, actually I wish them not that much,

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Speaker 4: like I have a raven Super Bowl future. I wish

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Speaker 4: them luck up until they face the Ravens in the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, one of the best teams in the NFL,

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Speaker 4: the team that I have powered at the highest, but

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Speaker 4: no value the market knows how that the Bills are now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because with that, with that juice stup eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half, you're talking like eleven eight.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't I don't see any value.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that cornerback situation is concerning.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, this, this, this.

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Speaker 1: They can win shootouts, you know, that's that's the thing

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Speaker 1: with the Bills, but you know, and they got von Miller.

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Speaker 1: I think that'll help on the edge as long as

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Speaker 1: he stays, you know, at the level that he's stayed at,

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Speaker 1: even as you yeah, yeah, he's one of the I

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Speaker 1: think PFF had him like third the in the whole

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Speaker 1: league among yeah, third among one hundred and nine edge rushers,

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Speaker 1: which is very impressive.

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Speaker 2: And Johnson, you know, he's good in the slot, you know,

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Speaker 2: but you know.

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Speaker 1: On the outside that that's going to become an issue

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Speaker 1: when you're putting up thirty points on the other team.

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Speaker 1: So I'm really this white news because I think that'll

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Speaker 1: be something to kind of keep in mind, you know,

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Speaker 1: betting overs early in the year. I think that'll be

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Speaker 1: something to keep in mind, you know, as good as

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Speaker 1: those safeties are you're gonna be able to find space,

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Speaker 1: you know, on the outside with this Bill's cornerback situation.

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Speaker 2: But you have no value. Let's go to the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: One of the most interesting offseasons we've seen in a while.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you had it, you had at all.

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Speaker 1: You had, you had scandals, you had a new coaching staff,

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Speaker 1: you have a Marquee wide receiver jumping ship and Tyreek

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Speaker 1: Hill coming over there. The win total is nine, the

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Speaker 1: over is even money. The under his minus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: You know another team that got pretty lucky with injuries

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Speaker 1: last year. They were top four in terms of fewest

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Speaker 1: adjusted games lost. They also outperformed their point differential. You

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Speaker 1: would have expected them to win seven point six games,

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Speaker 1: they won nine. So they are a regression candidate. And

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Speaker 1: I will say this. You know, Brian Flores got canned,

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Speaker 1: and you know McDaniel's been doing a good job out

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Speaker 1: there in San Francisco. But Flora is they beat their

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Speaker 1: Pattagona and WINSTO every year. So they overachieved every year

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Speaker 1: with Flores. So we'll see if if McDaniel could kind

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Speaker 1: of get the same out of them. And we already

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Speaker 1: know they're they're kind of having issues with Gasiki and

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Speaker 1: they might want to trade him.

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Speaker 2: But what do you think of this offense?

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Speaker 1: First and foremost with you know, Tua getting a new

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Speaker 1: number one wide out in Tyreek Kill.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love what the Dolphins did in the offseason.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that you can't not like what they

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Speaker 4: did on.

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Speaker 3: The offensive side. The look.

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Speaker 4: It's it's a very complex breakdown of the Dolphins because

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Speaker 4: you got to get into like a right Tua and

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Speaker 4: his accuracy, how he's not thrown down field enough, but

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Speaker 4: he's shown flashes. He has all the tools and I

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Speaker 4: mean just when you had an offense but he was

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Speaker 4: at Alabama with a good offensive line, weapons, who could

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Speaker 4: you know, create after the catch which is where he

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Speaker 4: really thrives in because he can also use his legs and.

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Speaker 3: That's where it's a perfect fit.

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Speaker 4: And you know there's gonna be it's a new scheme here,

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Speaker 4: so there might be some growing pains and I think

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Speaker 4: today just threw four picks and you don't know how

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Speaker 4: much you take from camp. But there's the point is

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Speaker 4: there might be some growing pains with this offense and

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Speaker 4: new pieces. But the biggest problem that too has faced

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Speaker 4: he hasn't had the greatest receivers, and he's had dealt

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Speaker 4: with receiver injuries, but it's been the offensive line, and

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Speaker 4: the offensive line has been one of the worst the

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Speaker 4: NFL over the past couple of years. He has no

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Speaker 4: time to we were like to throw it downfield. It's like,

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Speaker 4: all right, well I got one second to throw the.

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Speaker 3: Ball, So now there's he's gonna have time.

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Speaker 4: It's you have a lot of these young guys that

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Speaker 4: were in there for the I mean the Dolphins had

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Speaker 4: basically at times it felt like that five rookies on

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Speaker 4: their offensive line. You have a couple of those young

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Speaker 4: guys that are now more seasoned, and then you go

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Speaker 4: out and you add Armstead assuming he can stay healthy

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Speaker 4: at left tackle, massive upgrade. You had Connor Williams at center,

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Speaker 4: massive upgrade because center has been a disaster disaster.

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Speaker 3: For the Dolphins. So now you have really good offensive line.

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Speaker 4: You bolster the running back room, which is I assume

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Speaker 4: in this shad Ada scheme, going to be really important.

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Speaker 4: And then you had Tyreek Hill, who just makes an offense.

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Speaker 4: Not only is he really good, he makes an offense

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Speaker 4: that much more difficult to cover and scheme for get

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Speaker 4: to worry about him over the top.

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Speaker 3: You got a home run hitter in Jalen Waddell, You.

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Speaker 4: Added Cedric Wilson, who knows what's gonna happen with Kasiki.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's not blocking, isn't really his strong suit

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Speaker 4: and so then it's his last year of his contract,

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Speaker 4: so maybe they're going to end up shopping him.

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Speaker 3: But regardless if he's there or not.

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Speaker 4: And there's enough weapons here and the offensive line has

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Speaker 4: improved enough for this offense to take a major step forward.

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Speaker 4: But there might be some growing pains early on. You know,

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Speaker 4: that might be the difference between getting to the playoffs

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Speaker 4: and not. Because THEFC is that loaded, it's going to

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Speaker 4: be absolute war for any AFC team to get to

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Speaker 4: the playoffs. And yeah, you mentioned the Dolphins last year,

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Speaker 4: they were I would argue the luckiest team in the

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Speaker 4: NFL because you know, they beat Davis Mills, Mac Jones twice,

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Speaker 4: Zach Wilson twice, Cam Newton, Mike glennon Ian book. I mean,

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Speaker 4: these are the worst backups and they faced a number

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Speaker 4: of backups and just a very favorable schedule. When you

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Speaker 4: peel a layer back, I am worried about the defense.

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Speaker 4: This could be a sneaky overteam eventually, because not only

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Speaker 4: do you lose floors, but I'm really worried about number one,

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Speaker 4: the age of the cornerbacks. As I talk about ad nauseum.

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Speaker 4: But this is a man defense, it has been, and

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Speaker 4: that's what the Davis corners play.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 4: That's where you really see a drop off once these

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Speaker 4: corners reach thirty thirty one. And by the way, there

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Speaker 4: is no depth. And this is really concerning. Early on

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Speaker 4: in the year, you have Byron Jones is not ready

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Speaker 4: to come back yet from surgery.

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Speaker 3: He's still out.

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Speaker 4: They don't know when he's gonna come back or if

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Speaker 4: he's gonna be ready for the opener. Then they were

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Speaker 4: really counting on Trill Williams kid from Syracuse. He's out

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Speaker 4: for the year, he got hurt in preseason. You thron

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Speaker 4: nick them out on the outside and count on him,

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Speaker 4: and then you get your bottom of the barrel for

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Speaker 4: the slot. Their man defense kind of drives this engine

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Speaker 4: comes down to maybe just the regression, and that's that

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Speaker 4: hits Miami and they end up put some growing pains

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Speaker 4: early on, lose some games, and they end up finishing

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Speaker 4: right around five hundred. I project them eight point eight,

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Speaker 4: and I think they're five wind totals like eight point eight,

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Speaker 4: so no value.

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Speaker 3: Interesting team, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 1: Think they're yep, they're implied is eight point nine. I

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Speaker 1: have them favored in exactly nine. It's and you know

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Speaker 1: it's not even a you know, a hook. So another

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Speaker 1: team no real value. But yeah, I think the defense

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Speaker 1: has some upside, you know, if if guys can stay healthy,

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Speaker 1: like you said, I mean, if they can if their

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Speaker 1: secondary performs kind of get what they usually get from

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Speaker 1: those corners.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I think it could be a

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Speaker 2: decent team.

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Speaker 1: But you know, at the same time, you know, even finishing,

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Speaker 1: you know, well, is going to be tough because no

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Speaker 1: guarantee that you know, like this whole two Tyreek thing

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Speaker 1: works out. Love Wadle, but he's actually been dealing with

308
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,079
Speaker 1: an injury, like you said, not ideal from a nuanced

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Speaker 1: perspective in terms of the schedule. So staying away from

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins as well, it's got to the Patriots. Their

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Speaker 1: win totals eight and a half, so right around five

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Speaker 1: hundred slight rejuiced to the over at minus one twenty,

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Speaker 1: so you could call it about eight point six. I

314
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Speaker 1: think the on line will still be still be pretty good.

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Speaker 1: They are decently lucky in injury luck last year eleventh

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Speaker 1: and eleventh fewest adjusted games loss, and I have a

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Speaker 1: lot of games with them that could kind of go

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Speaker 1: either way. I have them favored in six. I have

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Speaker 1: them essentially a pick them in three. More so to

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Speaker 1: be a high variance team. One thing is interesting is

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Speaker 1: they're actually a positive as crazy as the towns. They're

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Speaker 1: actually a positive regression candidate. They won ten games last year.

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Speaker 1: They're pive points of differential suggested they were more like

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Speaker 1: a twelve point four win team.

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Speaker 2: So that's one of the biggest wins.

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Speaker 3: Twelve point six.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, oh yeah, yeah, I have a twelve point four.

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Speaker 1: But either way, yeah, like about two and a half

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Speaker 1: more wins. So it's really interesting. And then you look

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Speaker 1: at you know, Belichick, and you know everyone's always going

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Speaker 1: to to make or wonder about you know, Belichick, Brady.

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Speaker 1: You know who mattered more? Obviously it's the quarterback. We

333
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Speaker 1: know this just from a statistical perspective. You know, quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: are essentially going to be passing in general, is just

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Speaker 1: going to impact the point differential an outcome of a

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Speaker 1: games more than any other single element in football.

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Speaker 2: But it's interesting to look at Belichick, you know, all time.

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Speaker 1: He was fifteen five and two at New England, but

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Speaker 1: just one and two without Brady in terms of going

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Speaker 1: over the preseason win total. So if you combine that

341
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Speaker 1: with his two and three record with Cleveland, he's fourteen

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Speaker 1: and three with Brady with a couple of pushes, but

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Speaker 1: three and five without him.

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Speaker 2: So it's I look.

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Speaker 1: At his Patriots team, I'm just like it could go

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Speaker 1: either way because I feel like Matt Jones has some

347
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Speaker 1: potential and I feel like he could just take a

348
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Speaker 1: kind of one of those quiet steps forward and become

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Speaker 1: extremely efficient, even though they don't really have any big.

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Speaker 2: Names on offense.

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Speaker 1: But on the other hand, you know, it's Belichick kind

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Speaker 1: of paying it forward and grooming, you know, doing Judge

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Speaker 1: and Patricia favor, especially Patrician kind of Okay, you can

354
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Speaker 1: you can call the offense now, and you know, we

355
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 1: haven't heard good things out of camp regarding the offense's performance.

356
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Speaker 2: The defense I.

357
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Speaker 1: Think is gonna take a step back, you know, losing J. C.

358
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Speaker 2: Jackson.

359
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Speaker 1: I know, I know they like Mills and you know,

360
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,240
Speaker 1: they always seem to unearth like a new shutdown corner.

361
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,120
Speaker 1: But I mean jac Jackson has been one of the

362
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 1: best corners and and just in terms of the way

363
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 1: he's been able to create turnovers and you know lock

364
00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:31,320
Speaker 1: up you know, receivers and man coverage. So I still

365
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:35,080
Speaker 1: think the defense takes a step back. So overall, like

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Speaker 1: not another team.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to touch.

368
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 1: The over for but I think it's a higher variance

369
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Speaker 1: team even than Miami just because you still have Belichick.

370
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Speaker 1: You have this kind of uncertainty with Mac Jones and

371
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 1: the defense always they always seem to kind of develop

372
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 1: well with those guys and they'll kind of peak, I

373
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Speaker 1: think later on in the year. So what do you

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Speaker 1: think about these these Patriots?

375
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Speaker 4: I am worried about the offense and everything that I'm hearing.

376
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Speaker 4: I mean, you turn the offense over to Matt Patricia.

377
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 4: That feels like it's like a parody or something like

378
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 4: Is that real? I thought it was like an onion article.

379
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:08,920
Speaker 4: And then you lose, you know, a guy, and Josh

380
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 4: Meantis has been there forever and had so much success

381
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 4: and obviously was beloved by Belichick. So that could be

382
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,400
Speaker 4: a steep decline though, lean on their rushing attack, which

383
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 4: should be really good.

384
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Speaker 2: And new scheme.

385
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Speaker 4: The new scheme, I think I feel like Mac Jones.

386
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 4: It could be Bailey Zappy by the way. I'm just kidding,

387
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 4: I think, but I feel like mac Jones showed enough

388
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,960
Speaker 4: to have faith in him taking a step forward in

389
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 4: the next year. And you know, Belichick talked about I

390
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 4: think the other day he was talking about how it's

391
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Speaker 4: like from year one to year two in the NFL.

392
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,120
Speaker 4: It's like getting a master's and a doctor in one

393
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 4: year in football. So especially with when you're under him,

394
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 4: and you can assume that mac Jones is only going

395
00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,359
Speaker 4: to get better. But there's the pieces around him are okay.

396
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,159
Speaker 4: The offensive line is I think this will be okay.

397
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,239
Speaker 4: But I'm worried about the defense too. I mean, they

398
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 4: were across the board that fish is like a top

399
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,200
Speaker 4: five defense last year, but you do have Jackson locking down.

400
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:58,920
Speaker 4: They were I think number one in the NFL gets

401
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 4: number one receivers, you know, he was I think number

402
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,360
Speaker 4: one in the NFL, and passes defended I think number one

403
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,679
Speaker 4: or two, and interceptions. This is a secondary which was

404
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 4: kind of led the defense in recent years where you

405
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 4: had like prime Gilmour Jackson, Like now you look and

406
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 4: it's like, okay, Jalen Mills has been okay, but as

407
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 4: you don't want them as your number one.

408
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,400
Speaker 3: There's word that Jack Jones.

409
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 4: Rookie from Arizona State, who I actually loved in the future,

410
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:23,640
Speaker 4: but there has been like.

411
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 3: Talk that he was maybe going to be the number one.

412
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 3: I think the defense I think finished. I think I

413
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 3: had him just from a metrics standpoint. Finish was like the.

414
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:30,880
Speaker 2: Top five last year.

415
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, and they're going to be a slightly below average.

416
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 4: That's what I haven't projected at. Maybe Belichick proves me wrong,

417
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 4: but I think the loss of Jackson the linebacker group

418
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 4: is pretty underwhelming. You know, you lose a couple other

419
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 4: guys that were important and versatile, the guy like van Ney.

420
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,640
Speaker 4: So we'll see if some of these young young kids

421
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 4: on the defense can take a step up up front.

422
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,879
Speaker 4: But I think that the secondary could be in for

423
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 4: some trouble. I also, if you look at the Patriots schedule,

424
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Speaker 4: I don't like it. And now I project them at

425
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 4: eight and they're at eight six. I have some bets coming,

426
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,199
Speaker 4: don't worry. Everyone's listening, but not so far. So they

427
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 4: get off to a slow start, which they're you know

428
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:11,400
Speaker 4: at Miami at pitt Ravens at Packers first four not easy,

429
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 4: and then you look, it's just a very bizarre finish.

430
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,160
Speaker 4: They got a really easy middle of the schedule. Their

431
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 4: end of season schedule is pretty wild. So they go

432
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 4: to Minnesota on a Thursday night, then they're back home

433
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 4: against Buffalo on a Thursday night. They are at Arizona

434
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 4: on a Monday night, and then on a short week,

435
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 4: they're at Vegas on a Sunday night. So I mean

436
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 4: that is four straight primetime games at Minnesota, back to Foxborough,

437
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 4: out to Arizona, short week, got to stay out there,

438
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 4: go to Vegas, and then your home on a short week,

439
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 4: coming back across the country home against the Bengals.

440
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 3: It's a lot.

441
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 4: I'm curious. It's a crazy end of the season schedule.

442
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 4: So I don't like the schedule just for the nuanced perspective,

443
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 4: but I project them right on. Give Belichick benefit of

444
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 4: the doubt if I had a bet it, but no

445
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:07,400
Speaker 4: better on the Patriots.

446
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I only got him favorite in six. I got

447
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 1: a bunch of games I could go either way.

448
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:11,680
Speaker 3: Same.

449
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: The best way to approach them is just going to

450
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,199
Speaker 1: be week to week. They're a situational team. Still some

451
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 1: question marks on that defense. I agree, all right, let's

452
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 1: finish up.

453
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 2: The AFC East with the New York Jets. Oh no,

454
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 2: we suck again.

455
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 1: Their win totals five and a half juice to the

456
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 1: over at minus one sixty. The under is plus one thirty.

457
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: They were really unlucky when it came to injuries last year.

458
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: I had the second most adjusted games lost and they're

459
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 1: already starting off on a bad foot.

460
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 2: With with Zach Wilson being out.

461
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 1: Although in terms of just straight up like power ratings,

462
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 1: I don't drop off from Wilson to Flacco. I mean

463
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 1: probably not existed until Wilson proves himself. I only got

464
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 1: him favorite in three games, So I see why this

465
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: win total is dropping. I think it was at six

466
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: at one point, or even six and a half. They

467
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 1: were a four point one win team in terms of

468
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 1: the Pythagora win total last year. I do like what

469
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 1: they have done at the skill positions on offense, you know,

470
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 1: getting Consonan, getting Uzoma. That should finally solidify that the

471
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 1: tight end room. I think Garrett Wilson is a nice

472
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 1: compliment to Elijah Moore. You still got Corey Davis Barrios's

473
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: good slat guy, special teams guy, and you know the line.

474
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: I had high hopes for the line too, but you know,

475
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 1: now you got Mike Kaie Bectin's out again, so you

476
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: know it's it just seems like the injuries.

477
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 2: Are going to be the Jets downfall.

478
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 1: And they're clearly the worst team in this division, So

479
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 1: you know it's I don't have a lot. I still

480
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 1: think they're a year away at least, but what do

481
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: you think?

482
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, here's about I did play the Jets under liked

483
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 4: it better at six, but I also played some five

484
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 4: and a half plus money. I project them at five

485
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 4: on the dot. And this really comes down to if

486
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 4: you believe in Zach Wilson or people do for some reason,

487
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 4: Like I see like TikTok's one of the people that

488
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 4: are just like Zach Wilson, And I'm like, what did

489
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 4: you see last year to believe that I had one

490
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 4: of the worst rookie seasons in the history of the

491
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 4: NFL Statistically, I didn't. I didn't see anything to make

492
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 4: me believe that'll change it. Now he's out, Like this,

493
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 4: these are valuable. This is valuable time you're eating reps

494
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 4: and I like the receivers. That Beckton's a big loss.

495
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 4: This is still one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

496
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 4: And I like where they're headed and I think there's

497
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 4: light at the end of the tunnel. Jets fans, I

498
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 4: love their draft Sauce Gardner is my guy. And but

499
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 4: by the way, speaking of the corners that I forgot

500
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 4: fell the minch to Terrence Mitchell, who I'm not a fan.

501
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 4: That's another who's gonna be in the rotation for the Patriots.

502
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 4: And then they have like three Joneses. You have Jonathan Jones,

503
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 4: Marcus Jones, they drafted, Jack Jones, they drafted I'm gonna

504
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 4: get confused with all the which Jones is starting.

505
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: Keep it up with the Joneses.

506
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: That should be the secondary theme for the Patriots this year.

507
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 3: But anyway, I digress. Uh yeah, so the defense still working.

508
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 3: But I love so soft squad.

509
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 4: I think it's the future all pro But Patrick Peterson

510
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 4: is like the exception where you come in and then

511
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 4: you dominate for Brookie, So you can't really expect what

512
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 4: You just hope he's not Okuda and you know he's

513
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 4: gonna there's gonna be some growing pains.

514
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 3: That's to be expected.

515
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 4: It's okay, it's a lot different game in the NFL

516
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 4: playing cornerback, so yeah, and.

517
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,679
Speaker 3: Then you look at the the schedule. They're in the

518
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: a f C too, like that. It's brutal.

519
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: You know.

520
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 4: I think that the the Patriots are who they are.

521
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 4: I think the Dolphins got better. The Bills are one

522
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 4: of the best teams there. So that's just your division

523
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:42,719
Speaker 4: and go out to go out to the other divisions

524
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 4: the NFC, it's it's a tough sledding. So yeah, I

525
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 4: project them right at five. And it basically just comes

526
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 4: down to I don't believe in Jack Wilson. If you do,

527
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 4: someone else there does. He probably like the Jets to

528
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 4: go over. But yeah, I have them with.

529
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: The eighth hardest schedule too. It's like this is a

530
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: team that finished in the last place. That's what you get.

531
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 4: And ye see the two games I haven't favored in,

532
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 4: I'm favored it by under a point. So and it's

533
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 4: the Lions and Bears, Oh my at home. So I

534
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 4: don't like the schedule. It's just like, where are the wins?

535
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 4: You better hope they beat the Bears, Lions and Jags.

536
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 4: And I think the Lions and Jags could be improved

537
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,719
Speaker 4: this year. You better beat those teams at home if

538
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 4: you bet this over, and then you got to find

539
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 4: three other wins, and that's hard to find on the schedule.

540
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 4: So five and a half is a low number in

541
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 4: the NFL on the sevent team schedule, But five and

542
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 4: a half under plus money not a believer in Zach Wilson.

543
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 3: That's basically what it boils down to.

544
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 1: I like this under as well, especially because you're you're

545
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: still getting it at plus money. And like I said,

546
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: I think there's a legitimate chance for a h to

547
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: ten or a one to nine start. You know, when

548
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: you look at that early season schedule, those first ten games,

549
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: I think the only the best opportunity for a win

550
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 1: you see is at Cleveland with Jacoby Brissett starting. But

551
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: that's still in Cleveland. That's still a team with a

552
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 1: good O line. That's still a team you know, that's

553
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: the dog crown. They they still have a run game,

554
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 1: and their quarterback is arguably be gonna be no worse

555
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 1: than the Jets starter, whether it's Flacco or Wilson. So

556
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know how you get to six

557
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 1: wins if you're if you're looking at bett and over,

558
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: but I see a lot of ways to get to

559
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:16,719
Speaker 1: five or fewer wins.

560
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 4: One thing I like to look at with these low

561
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 4: win totals is Week eighteen, the final week of the season,

562
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 4: and in the AFC, like, it's hard to see any

563
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 4: team running away. I mean, every division is so hard.

564
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 4: You're not gonna it's like to have the one seed

565
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 4: locked up. It's gonna be tough. But the Dolphins are

566
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 4: a team where they're not gonna be like maybe they will,

567
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 4: but I doubt that they're gonna be resting starters in

568
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 4: week eighteen because they locked up the bye and it

569
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 4: could get ugly earlier and then just spiral right like

570
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 4: you said, because they can start out in ten and

571
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 4: then it's like, oh, let's yeah Underjets.

572
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 2: I was jumped to the AFC North. Start with your Ravens.

573
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.

574
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 2: Their win totals nine and a half.

575
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: It's heavily juiced to the over at minus one sixty,

576
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: So you're talking about more like that's really ten ten

577
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: on the dot. If you're talking win tos, I'm sure

578
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 1: there's some tens out there, depending what book you're betting at.

579
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: But I gotta say this man, in terms of injury luck,

580
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: statistically speaking, they had the worst injury luck on record

581
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 1: in the last two decades, and by a wide margin

582
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 1: as well. They lost over one hundred and ninety one

583
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: games to injury last year. That tops the previous high

584
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: of just under one hundred and seventy two, you know,

585
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 1: over these last two decades. So you know, the Ravens

586
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 1: healthy Ravens team is obviously a different beast than you

587
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: know what was going on last year with that secondary.

588
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: You look at Harbaugh in his career in Baltimore, eight

589
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: five and one to the over. So I think there

590
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: are a lot of things to like about this team,

591
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: and I know you like them as well. So talk

592
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: about them and why they're your only Super Bowl future.

593
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, we talked about our pre season, our post two

594
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 4: Bowl wrap up. They were thirty to one out there.

595
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 4: I was like, this is outrageous, just like the Bills.

596
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 4: I mean the Bills last year. I think we're out

597
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 4: of whack. I think the Ravens are too to buy

598
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 4: low sell high principles in the NFL. I think everyone

599
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 4: just kind of got off the Ravens after last year

600
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 4: and is off Lamar Jackson when people forget that this team,

601
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 4: it's the what do you just talk about the Rams

602
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 4: When the Super Bowl was Tart dropped an interception that

603
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 4: the Bills didn't because they don't not a swib kick

604
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 4: because the NFL, like the Ravens, were always in the mix.

605
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 4: They got into the playoffs, and then it comes down

606
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 4: to random plays here or there. It comes down that

607
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 4: they went oh of eight and on fourth down against

608
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 4: the Titans or the pick six against the Bills, like

609
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 4: they're going to be in the mix. Whether you think

610
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson, you know, over the hump or not. I

611
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 4: think it thirty to one was outrageous. Twenty five we

612
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 4: sold find twenty two to one. This is I think

613
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 4: just out of whack from where I have them priced.

614
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 4: I have them projected closer to eleven wins. You mentioned

615
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 4: the injury luck. I love the draft, you love the organization,

616
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 4: you love all the little things. The coaching one of

617
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 4: the best coaching situations in the NFL, one of the

618
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 4: best special teams units in the NFL, which there will

619
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 4: always be some hidden wins there. I saw that against

620
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 4: the lines last year. The punter by the way, I

621
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 4: wanted the punt God, but Jordan's staff.

622
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, it didn't really good.

623
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 2: Did do you see him?

624
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: Him and Tucker switched spots and he kicked an extra

625
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: point like so that means if God forbid that anything

626
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: ever happens to.

627
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 2: Tucker like in game.

628
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 3: Oh yeah there.

629
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just saying I said, God for back on Wood,

630
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 2: but we had enough injury lock last year.

631
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: We don't need our best player got down. So uh yeah.

632
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 4: So like the you know, the offensive line, the running backs,

633
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 4: everyone was hurtless, and then the whole secondary. So they

634
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 4: should have one of the best secretaries in the NFL.

635
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 4: And lastly, they're throwing backups out there every week, giving

636
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 4: up fifty to borrow. Speaking of what, they have a

637
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 4: new defensive coordinator, which I think they needed to do.

638
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 4: Have talked about this before blitz heavy week, Martindale. I

639
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 4: think you do good things with the Giants who need

640
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 4: to create some pressure. But the elite quarterbacks in the NFL,

641
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 4: in the AFC, it you can't just blitz them every play.

642
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 3: We've seen it.

643
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 4: Go look at burrows numbers against the blitz. Look at

644
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 4: Mahome's numbers against the Blitz and then look at what

645
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 4: they've done to the Ravens over the past couple of years,

646
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 4: So I think a scheme change health. I love the

647
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 4: addition of Marcus Williams. I love their draft across the board.

648
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 4: I think that them, the Giants and the Jets had

649
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 4: they were my three highest rated drafts. So big bounce

650
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 4: back year for the Ravens, and yeah, I think they'll

651
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 4: be in the mix. They'll get into the playoffs. The

652
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 4: biggest weakness on the team by far. Everyone knows it.

653
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 4: And by the way, Isaiah Likely, it looks.

654
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: Like, Yeah, I was about to say, how do we Monster,

655
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: how do we get this far talking about the Ravens

656
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: without mentioning Isaiah Likely, Like this, dude, he's probably what

657
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: I think is gonna happen. Is he gonna be like

658
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna use him kind of like Miami used Kasiki.

659
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

660
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I got him projected for tight end snats

661
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: but also wide receiver snaps.

662
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

663
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 4: We I did a h I just did a fantasy

664
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 4: draft with my wife's work, and then I did another

665
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 4: one with old friends, and I've I've likely in every

666
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 4: draft and now I got to do one with you focks.

667
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 4: All like the fantasy experts, and I'm like, God, damn it,

668
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 4: there's no.

669
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: Way I'm gonna end up getting likely. But now everyone's

670
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: starting to know about him.

671
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 4: But uh yeah, that so he really helps and obviously

672
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 4: have Mark Andrews. But still it's like, you know, you

673
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 4: traded away Hollywood Brown, and I like the trade from

674
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 4: the Ravens perspective. You look at what they initially used

675
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 4: to get them and then what they got back in return.

676
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 4: The Ravens fleece the Cardinals, but you know, now you're

677
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 4: asking for Shaan Bateman to be your number one Devin Duvernet,

678
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 4: I don't think you can win the Super Bowl with that.

679
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 4: So what did to go back to the Ravens twenty twelve?

680
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 4: What did they do in leading up to that year?

681
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 4: By the way they fired their off it's a coordinator.

682
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 4: During that year, they brought in an Kwon Bolden. That's

683
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 4: who they need. They need to They need to they

684
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 4: need an Ant Kwon Bolden and they need to sign

685
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 4: them at some point during the year. And I think

686
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 4: that that's kind of the missing piece. I think this

687
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 4: is one of the better teams in the AFC. There's

688
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 4: so much to like about them and then then they're

689
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 4: a major regression candidate.

690
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 3: Yeah.

691
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 4: I also like the nuances of their schedule, big bounce

692
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 4: back year for the Ravens. I think anything over twenty

693
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 4: to one is a play to win the Super Bowl.

694
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 2: I actually like bab I think he can.

695
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: I think he's going to surprise some people as the

696
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: one because looking at Matt Harmon's reception perception breakdown of Bateman,

697
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 1: and you know, he takes an eight game sample and

698
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: looks at how well they get opened, you know, so

699
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,719
Speaker 1: not just when he's when they're targeted, but just how

700
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: they're lining up, how much they're beating each type of coverage.

701
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: And Bateman was seventy fourth percentile against man, eighty first

702
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: percentile against press, and eighty fifth against zone, and they

703
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 1: were lining him up as the X like, so he

704
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: was on the line of scrimmage like, was able to

705
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: beat press coverage, so I think, and they really haven't

706
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: had that, Like Marquis Brown wasn't that. So I'm actually

707
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: more worried about Greg Roman than I am Receiving Court

708
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 1: at this point because what I started to see last year.

709
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: Out of them. I don't know if you've noticed this too,

710
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 2: was you know for.

711
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: The first time, and I think a while, like it

712
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,479
Speaker 1: really became easy to game plan for the Ravens offense,

713
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: and like teams just started to like play man coverage.

714
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 1: H but you know set like the if you ever

715
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: played Madden, like it's essentially like the Engage eight, Like

716
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: they just send everybody who's not covering a receiver.

717
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 3: At Dolphins up that game.

718
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, yep.

719
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: The offensive numbers actually at times looked better with Huntley

720
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: and Johnson just because you know, defenses.

721
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 3: Didn't have like this something different.

722
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, they didn't have like this tried and true way

723
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: of just game planning for the Ravens anymore. And Mark

724
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: Andrews numbers really kind of took off too when when

725
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: Lamar went down. So we'll see, you know, he's had

726
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: a whole off season. You know, the old line should

727
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: be in better shape. Doubt there's no guarantee with Dobbins

728
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: Edwards is on the pub, so there are some things

729
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: to worry about if like Roman doesn't have his full

730
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: compliment or backs and and he hasn't.

731
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 2: Quite figured it out.

732
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: But if they can put it all together, I agree.

733
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: I think this is one of the highest upside teams

734
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: in the league. They were obviously a lot better earlier

735
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: in the offseason. Now they're about twenty to one, which

736
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: is a little more in line with I think they're

737
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: true odds. But I do like this Ravens team. I'm

738
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: just watching for how Roman looks and how he's scheming

739
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: up this offense. Talk the Cincinnati Bengals.

740
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 3: The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back.

741
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: Coming off the Super Bowl loss. Do we get a

742
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: Super Bowl hangover?

743
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 2: Their win?

744
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,239
Speaker 1: Totals at ten even money to the over minus one

745
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: twenty to the under. Pretty lucky in terms of injuries

746
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 1: last year seventh fewest games missed adjusted. I do like

747
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: their improve the improvements they made to the offensive line.

748
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: They should have four good offensive linement at least, which

749
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: is a major step up. You know, don't underestimate, you know,

750
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase second year week as good as he was

751
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: last year. The receiving corps is good. The offense should

752
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: be fine. I wish they would let Chris Evans take

753
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: over for p Ryan in that third down row. And

754
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: then on defense, I mean, and the defensive line is decent,

755
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: like Logan Wilson at linebacker. The safety should be good

756
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: with baits and Bell as much as I want to

757
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: just say, okay, fade the Bengals like it's still on

758
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: paper at least a pretty rock solid team.

759
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 2: What do you think.

760
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 4: I've seen a lot of people want to fait the Bengals,

761
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 4: but I don't see that. I don't see any value

762
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 4: either way. But I thought I was gonna be fading,

763
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 4: but I'm not. And their main weakness on their offense,

764
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 4: what was twofold last year was the early in the

765
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 4: season was to play calling and like just inefficient, let's

766
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 4: run on first down. They Taylor finally opened that up

767
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 4: later in the year, which I think was important. But

768
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,760
Speaker 4: then Joe Burrow is He's the truth. He is Joe Burrow,

769
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 4: and you know, those receivers mixing, and then you improved

770
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,240
Speaker 4: the primary weakness all year, which was the offensive line.

771
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 4: And they definitely were fortunate last year in a number

772
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 4: of different categories. And I think the defenses as a

773
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 4: whole overrated and they definitely overperformed. I pray for Eli

774
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: Appole against the Chiefs the year had that circle. He

775
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 4: was tweeting up a storm after that win over the Chiefs.

776
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 4: The Chiefs probably spent a couple of days the staff

777
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 4: this year picking one place to burn him with celebrations.

778
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 4: But yeah, they improved their office a lot. I think

779
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 4: the defense will take a step back, but they really

780
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 4: benefited from the division last year. The Ravens, we just

781
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 4: talked about it, the most injured team in NFL history,

782
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 4: and the Browns also had really bad luck in dealing

783
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 4: with injuries all season as well. So it was like

784
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 4: the perfect storm in what was supposed to be a

785
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,720
Speaker 4: tough division. And then you know, Roethlisberger turned into a pumpkin.

786
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 4: So it was kind of the perfect storm for them

787
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 4: to get in the playoffs. And as I said, that's

788
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 4: all you need to do in the NFL get into

789
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 4: the playoffs if you have a good quarterback. You obviously

790
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 4: need a good quarterback, which the Bengals did, and then

791
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 4: they got fortunate in the playoffs tweetdeed until the Super Bowl.

792
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 4: If Derek Carr doesn't hit a helmet, they probably lose

793
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 4: that home to the Raiders. So I think it's gonna

794
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 4: be tougher for them to get into the playoffs this

795
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 4: year because the AFC is just loaded across the board.

796
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,439
Speaker 4: But I'm not going to rush to faith Them's borrow

797
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 4: still an offensive driven lead, and you have Joe Burrow

798
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 4: those receivers, mixing a coach who showed that he's now

799
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 4: more willing to you know, let Burrow open it up

800
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 4: on early downs. So yeah, I do have questions about

801
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 4: the defense. They do have a very tough schedule. I

802
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 4: have them with the fifth toughest schedule and by the way,

803
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 4: the Ravens with the twentieth toughest schedule because they finished

804
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 4: in the last place, that was big for them and

805
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 4: some of the games they got as a result were massive. Yeah, Bengals,

806
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 4: I think they're priced pretty properly in the market.

807
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 2: Like you said, this AFC is loaded to you. I don't.

808
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: I don't see any value there.

809
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 1: But I'm not I'm not one of those people that's

810
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: just saying, oh super Bowl hangover.

811
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: Got to fade them at all costs.

812
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: You know, you're just gonna have to find opportunities week

813
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: to week to back this team, depending on, you know,

814
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:48,760
Speaker 1: how the market's going. Clevelen Rocks, Clean, Lin Rocks, Clean,

815
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 1: Blenn Rocks, Clean Rocks. The Cleveland Browns, you know, they're

816
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: most of their lines are still off the board, but

817
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 1: their WINSOTO was up at eight and a half plus

818
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: one ten to the old where you know they should

819
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: have a good offensive line. Still, I know they've lost

820
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 1: their center, which is not ideal. But the one thing

821
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 1: that I think does Cleveland some favors is that any

822
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: schedule makers. I mean, you know, it's it's it's interesting

823
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 1: because their scheduled to start the year at Carolina versus

824
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 1: the Jets, versus the Steelers at Atlanta three wins, maybe

825
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: four if they they if things go right, and that's

826
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 1: even whipper set. And then and then it starts to

827
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: get tougher, you know, even with Watson. You know, after

828
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: that Houston game at Sincy home against Baltimore home against

829
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 1: the Saints at Washington at Pittsburgh eight and a half.

830
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: Probably considering the easy schedule early but the tough schedule late,

831
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: I don't really.

832
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,919
Speaker 2: See any value either way. But what do you think

833
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: is this Browns team?

834
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty here, and I mean

835
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 4: Watson looked awful by the way I mean, and plus

836
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 4: it's like he had so much time off and then

837
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 4: you're gonna count on him to come back after twelve games,

838
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 4: It'll be seven hundred days on the dot in between

839
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 4: games live regular season NFL action and just on a

840
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 4: new team and then just be fine while everyone else

841
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 4: is in Week twelve, then it's the end of the season.

842
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 3: So it's hard to project, like what are you.

843
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 4: Gonna get from Watson when he comes back, right, because

844
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 4: there has to be some kind of adjustment period. From

845
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 4: what I've seen, they're running a whole new offense with

846
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 4: based on RPOs and motion. Like with doing that with

847
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 4: Brissette is like, I don't know. The defense is going

848
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 4: to be really good though, and the offensive line is

849
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 4: still good and the rushing attacks still should be good.

850
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 4: Verssett is just still who he is and I just

851
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 4: don't think it's gonna work him from what I've seen

852
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 4: what they're trying to do with this offense.

853
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 3: But they'll be in like low.

854
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 4: Scoring games, so like they're going to be in a

855
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 4: lot of like coint of games. I think their defense

856
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 4: is going to be really good if they can stay healthy.

857
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 3: You know, they're going to run the ball.

858
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 4: I think try to shorten games with Brissette. It's really smart,

859
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 4: analytically driven sets. So they're going to be in some

860
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 4: games when they're underdogs, and they're going to be in

861
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 4: some close games against SEMs that they should be.

862
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 3: So I think that there's a high variance, really high

863
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 3: variance with this.

864
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 4: Team, especially considering we don't know what we're gonna get

865
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,919
Speaker 4: with Watson when he comes back. But I would tend

866
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 4: to think it's worse than people are assuming. So I

867
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 4: projected them see before Watson, Like if you assume Watson

868
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 4: for the full games and then he was back to

869
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 4: what he was, I projected them over ten ten wins

870
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 4: if they don't have him for the whole year, I'm

871
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 4: at like seven eight, seven to nine. I assume he

872
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 4: comes back, but he's not gonna be that effective, but

873
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 4: it's gonna be a bit of an improvement. So I'm

874
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 4: at like eight three, So I don't know. It's very

875
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 4: hard to project. I think that they're a positive aggression candidate.

876
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 4: They're well coached. I like their defense, like the rushing attack,

877
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 4: like their offense lines are things to like here, it's

878
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 4: tough sled in the AFC man. But I think they'll

879
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 4: probably end up finishing right around their win total, and

880
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 4: it'll come down to what Watson can give them late,

881
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 4: and I would tend to think that it's not going

882
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 4: to be much. It's just such a huge learning curve

883
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 4: and so much rust that if I had a guess,

884
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 4: they end up going under.

885
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 2: It kind of reminds me a little of the Saints.

886
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 1: It's like good de with a lot of quality players

887
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 1: and then like a good great running back. It's just

888
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 1: it just there's just some uncertainty there where you could

889
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 1: see them winning anywhere from like five to twelve games.

890
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: So if you do, like Cleveland, I wouldn't attack the

891
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: win toad. I know it is that plus money, but

892
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: I would go, you know division. You know they're sizeable

893
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 1: underdogs to win the division, plus three eighty to win

894
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: the division.

895
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: You know, I believe they're plus money to make the

896
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 2: playoffs as well.

897
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: But Stefanski, the run game defense, they if they could

898
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: survive that stretch with Brissett and Watson's you know Watson,

899
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 1: it could be a double digit win team. So, like

900
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 1: you said, the win told is right, But they do

901
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 1: have some upside. It's just that they have some downside

902
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 1: as well.

903
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 4: So but maybe the way to attack their upside is

904
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 4: a super Bowl future. I got to see where it

905
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:45,439
Speaker 4: is settled. What is it sitting at right now?

906
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 2: Forty to one forty one.

907
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 4: The thinking there is they sneak into the playoffs right

908
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 4: like Persett kind of just they tread water with Persett,

909
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 4: win some of these close games with their defense and

910
00:40:56,080 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 4: rushing attack, and then later in the season Watson, it

911
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 4: takes them a few games to get acclimated and get

912
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 4: catch up, back up to speed, and then they sneak

913
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 4: into the playoffs right as the last spot. But then

914
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 4: Watson has gotten a number of games under his belt,

915
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 4: and then you have, all of a sudden, you're like

916
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 4: the scariest seven seed. Then you have your defense, your

917
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 4: rushing attack, all those things are going to work really well.

918
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: In the playoffs.

919
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 4: With if he's back to an elite quarterback and then

920
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 4: all of a sudden, you're forty one, You're like, oh.

921
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 2: Shit, yeah, I think that's that. You gotta go upside.

922
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: While even just based on the circumstances, let's finish up

923
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,320
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh, here.

924
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 3: We go, still, here we go. It's first going to So.

925
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 1: The win totals up to seven and a half at

926
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: even money. I kind of like this team. You know,

927
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: earlier in the offseason, when did the win total I

928
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: think was at seven at one point, it might even

929
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 1: been some six and a half out there now it's

930
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 1: up to seven and a half. I don't like it

931
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 1: as much, but still I think Pittsburgh is still interesting

932
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 1: because you know, we know Toalmlin's never had to lose season.

933
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: On one hand, on the other hand, they're a regression candidate.

934
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: They you know, outperformed their patagonon wins by two last year.

935
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 1: Their won nine. Patagona said seven, Tom Window love him.

936
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 1: They're gonna be you know, they're gonna be an underdog.

937
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: And I count ten or eleven games probably this year.

938
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 1: You know, we know Tom Win is an underdog. He's

939
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 1: ten and five to the over, so hitting two thirds

940
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: of the time in terms of the win total overs.

941
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 2: Oh hit that horn, babe, Let's dance.

942
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 1: And then you have like kind of this unrealized upside

943
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 1: with Kenny Pickett because he's looked really good in the

944
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: pre I know it's just preseason relax, but he's looked

945
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: really good. And Mitch Mitch falsemisky, Mitch Bortles, whatever you

946
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 1: want to call him, he's actually one with teams like

947
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: this in the past. He's only had one losing season

948
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: as a starting quarterback. You know, he had those good

949
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: Bears defenses behind him, So like I'm kind of intrigued

950
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 1: by Pittsburgh, but I liked it a lot better at

951
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 1: you know, where you could push at seven. Even though

952
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 1: Tom has never had that losing season seven and a half,

953
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: I still have him as underdogs in like I said,

954
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 1: ten to eleven games. Now, they do great in those spots,

955
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: but you know, it's still you know, betting and over.

956
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 1: For a team to win eight games when you have

957
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:11,959
Speaker 1: them underdogs in eleven is it's not exactly ideal either.

958
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like this under and I know you're going,

959
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 4: we're going. It's a lot of history here, but I

960
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 4: played under seven.

961
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 3: And a half.

962
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 4: I know Tom Onin has never had a losing season.

963
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 4: He's been eight and eight a bunch, and now we

964
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 4: have eighteen game seasons.

965
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 2: He's on.

966
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 4: He's always had Ben Roethlisberger outside of one season, and

967
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 4: last year you could say, well, Ben Roethlisberger was awful,

968
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 4: and the quarterback played this year might be awful, but

969
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 4: it can't be much worse than last year. But last

970
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,399
Speaker 4: year they were basically I don't know a five win

971
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 4: team that won nine games. I mean, if not only

972
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 4: did they get extremely lucky in a number of games,

973
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 4: they went eight to and one, by the way, eight

974
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 4: two and one in one possession games. And it wasn't

975
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 4: just that. Let's take a look at their wins last year. Oh,

976
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 4: by the way, all of their wins they won nine games.

977
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 4: Now they went nine to seven and one. All of

978
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 4: their wins came by one possession for one. You know

979
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 4: what that one was that was against the Browns to

980
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 4: close out the regular season or was I think it

981
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 4: was the second of the last game when they were

982
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,839
Speaker 4: playing for their playoff hopes in Big Ben's last home

983
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 4: playoff game, when the Browns were eliminated a Monday night.

984
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 4: The Browns were eliminated the night before, and they didn't

985
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 4: play a bunch of their starters still in order to

986
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 4: win by two possesions that Ga Nagias had a break

987
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 4: a run with like eight seconds to go of like

988
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 4: a fifty yard run. So really all nine of their

989
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 4: wins came by one possession. They tied the lines in

990
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 4: overtime because Detroit's backup kicker missed the game winning field goal.

991
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 4: I mean, every single possible thing went right for this team,

992
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 4: like a number of backups. Every single team turned it

993
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 4: over on downs inside the last minute eight to and

994
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 4: one really nine too and one in one possession games

995
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 4: and count that Browns game. So yeah, major regression coming.

996
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 4: Division is loaded, and look, their defense are going to

997
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 4: get a ton of sacks like clockwork. They'll they'll lead

998
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 4: the league in sacks. But I think their defense, I mean,

999
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 4: statistically a middle of the pack last year. Not a

1000
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 4: fan of their cornerback situation. I think their defense a

1001
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 4: bit of overrated. Run defense is not good. I don't

1002
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 4: trust Kenny Pickett to win eight nine games in the

1003
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 4: AFC this year. And I certainly you know my thoughts

1004
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:08,919
Speaker 4: on Mitch Bortles.

1005
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 2: You've just been bortled and she was also at.

1006
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,839
Speaker 4: The worst offensive line top one of the worst three

1007
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 4: offensive line.

1008
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 2: And the Bears, yeah, they're up there in the NFL.

1009
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 4: Which is uh now, maybe the mobility factor for Trabisky

1010
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 4: will help, But I'm selling the Steelers. I think they

1011
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 4: finally go under and Tomlin finally doesn't get to eight wins.

1012
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: I kind of disagree, like I would much like this

1013
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: win teller to get back down to seven, but I

1014
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: actually like to upside this team. I think I think

1015
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 1: we can buy low here because I don't think it

1016
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 1: could be understated. I don't think it could be understated

1017
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,280
Speaker 1: how bad Ben Roethlisberger was, Like the last three years,

1018
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: he essentially average about six yards per pass attempt like

1019
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: that is bottom of the barrel, just hideous, especially in

1020
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 1: a modern NFL, you know.

1021
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's why last year they should have won

1022
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 3: like five games.

1023
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree, but I do think with three

1024
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: well no, Well, first of all, I think Pickett takes.

1025
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 2: Over sooner than later.

1026
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 1: And I think my point is, I think there's a

1027
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: lot of unrealized upside with the fact that Number one

1028
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: Pickett has looked really good, like.

1029
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 2: He could just be He could be even Trubisky could.

1030
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: An upgrade on Roethlisberger passing and running, which is sad,

1031
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: but uh, Pickett could be a major upgrade.

1032
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 3: Uh.

1033
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 4: Which quarterback have you seen succeed in the NFL behind

1034
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 4: a horrendous offensive line?

1035
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:27,720
Speaker 3: Give me one example.

1036
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 2: I mean, he can move though. That's the thing.

1037
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,359
Speaker 1: It's it's not like we have a big sample size,

1038
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:35,919
Speaker 1: fair but he was with urban mind, Like I'm saying,

1039
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: you have Mike Tomlin's man, I'm just saying I think

1040
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 1: there's a lot of upside here because you couldn't bine

1041
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 1: all these things you have Tomlin.

1042
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:45,439
Speaker 2: No, I will.

1043
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 1: I mean it's funny because there was a point where

1044
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 1: I thought he was overvalued too. You know, he was

1045
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: like leading the field and he was a third street.

1046
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: But now I think he may he may actually get this.

1047
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 2: Job by week one.

1048
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: But I just think with the mobility for the quarterbacks,

1049
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 1: it can't get any worse. You still have talent at

1050
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: the skill positions. The line should be bad, should be

1051
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 1: a little bit better.

1052
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 2: Uh, you know.

1053
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: With with with Daniels, I think the defense underachieved last year.

1054
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: Given like they like a lot of guys just didn't

1055
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: have good years. I think I think they bounced back

1056
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:14,399
Speaker 1: like you said they can.

1057
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 4: Also they also, by the way, they have faced the

1058
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 4: hardest schedule in the NFL for my numbers.

1059
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: See, here's the thing with Pittsburgh. We know we we

1060
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,439
Speaker 1: know this, We know Mike, what Mike Tom was gonna

1061
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 1: do in these games when they're underdogs.

1062
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 2: What we don't know. We haven't seen the upside. That's

1063
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 2: that's that's there.

1064
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,879
Speaker 1: With Pikett, We're we're kind of judging them based off

1065
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 1: just just hideousness that was Roethlisberger with with with that offense,

1066
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,319
Speaker 1: and I just think, like now it's like, even if

1067
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 1: it is true Biskey, which I don't think it will

1068
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: be long term, Like he's an upgrade passing you have,

1069
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: you have good receivers, you have good running back, you

1070
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:46,879
Speaker 1: have good you.

1071
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 2: Still have good players in the secondary, you still have t. J. Watt.

1072
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 2: Like you get pressure, you can win.

1073
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:52,839
Speaker 1: They can win any division game, even on the road,

1074
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: Like they could beat Cincinnati on the road, they could

1075
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: be Baltimore on the road. Like, I just think people

1076
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 1: are gonna be surprised, like it's just not a smash.

1077
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 2: I feel like it's a trap.

1078
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 1: Like I feel like it's like we're always expected Pittsburgh

1079
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 1: to finally take that step back.

1080
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:07,359
Speaker 2: I just think if they didn't do it these.

1081
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 4: I think everyone's gonna be like Tom will never lost

1082
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,879
Speaker 4: double digit games. I mean that never lost more than

1083
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:16,359
Speaker 4: He's never won fewer than eight games.

1084
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 3: I'm going over.

1085
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 4: I think you're giving way too much credit to Trubisky,

1086
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 4: who could end up Yeah he could have like seventeen picks.

1087
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 3: You got to remember too.

1088
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 4: And and yeah, by the way, another nuance here with

1089
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 4: the second hardest schedule is they play you know, they

1090
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 4: go to the Browns in Week three on a short

1091
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:41,799
Speaker 4: week after playing the Patriots. Their home game against the

1092
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 4: Browns is the final game of the year, when Watson

1093
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 4: will have four games under his belt. That's when you

1094
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 4: get the Browns at home. That's unfortunate.

1095
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 2: Get it, I get it, I get it, I get it.

1096
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: I'm just saying like it's I just think I wouldn't

1097
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 1: be surprised. Like I'm not saying go out and bet

1098
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 1: the mortgage. I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if

1099
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: the Steelers surprised a lot of people. I mean, it's

1100
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 1: like it's just like they kind of defy all It's

1101
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: like even Trubisky, it's like he had that Harbor rookieyear

1102
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: with John Fox. You remember that they barely threw the ball. Uh,

1103
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: and then you know he was on a Bears team.

1104
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 1: It's some decent defense. It's kind of like the Pittsburgh team.

1105
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:19,760
Speaker 1: You know, even if you don't think they're weak, they're decent.

1106
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 2: Uh.

1107
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: Twenty five and thirteen is a starter in those games,

1108
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: Like are just is this Steers team significantly worse than

1109
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 1: those Bears teams?

1110
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 2: Like in my opinion, no.

1111
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 3: No, but they're in. But look at the look at

1112
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 3: the conference in the schedule. That's the difference.

1113
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 2: I'm just saying I think that I don't think I don't.

1114
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 3: Think the Steelers defense is as good as those that

1115
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:38,720
Speaker 3: Bears defense.

1116
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 2: I mean, fair well, we'll see, we'll see.

1117
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 4: But yeah, But the one thing I will say for

1118
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 4: Steelers fans, and I agree that Tomlin has overperformed a lot,

1119
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 4: but some of the the because the defense was like

1120
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 4: just average last year. If some of the offseason signings,

1121
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 4: here's where the upside is the defense becomes into that

1122
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 4: top five unit. You know, it's like Miles, Jack, CAZy

1123
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 4: and Wile if.

1124
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 3: They all hit.

1125
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 4: And then you add Flores, who I think can bring

1126
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 4: some Brian Flores. We talked about some nuance to this

1127
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 4: defense and add some wrinkles, and we both think Kylie

1128
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 4: of Flores, maybe the defense does make a jump back

1129
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 4: into a top five unit, which I'm not assuming they are.

1130
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 4: So that's why my numbers are a little more depressed.

1131
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 4: And then I also hate rookie quarterbacks behind offensive young,

1132
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 4: awful offense lines, and I hate Mitch Portless everyt for

1133
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 4: Trapisky with time downfield wants. Robinson's intercepted the gun by

1134
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:36,800
Speaker 4: Sakil priffeint D it's intercepted.

1135
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 3: Trupiski over the middle, intercepting and.

1136
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 4: Pass deep down field into a lot of traffic and

1137
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 4: Eddy that's gonna be picked off at the thirty six

1138
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 4: yard line and that's intercepted.

1139
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 3: At the forty yard line. Overthrow.

1140
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 2: You did not have to do that. You did not

1141
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 2: have to do that. You're forcing something.

1142
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 1: Even if you agree, like you don't need to bet

1143
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: the Steelers win total, because we're gonna get Like I said,

1144
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 1: we had ten to eleven games probably where they're underdog

1145
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,879
Speaker 1: and you could just you know, attack the underdog, goat

1146
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlins.

1147
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:07,839
Speaker 2: So look the greatest of all time, look at your work.

1148
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:10,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Steers are surprised you don't. Let's see

1149
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,399
Speaker 1: how it plays out. That's going to do it for

1150
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: this episode. Let's quickly recap what we like. For me,

1151
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 1: it's really it's really just that Jets under and some

1152
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:20,880
Speaker 1: maybe some high upside plays on the.

1153
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 2: On the Cleveland Browns.

1154
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's about all I see for value in

1155
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:26,399
Speaker 1: these two divisions.

1156
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 3: Raven's only super Bowl future.

1157
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 4: I like the Jets under and I played the Steelers under,

1158
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 4: which is where we disagree.

1159
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 3: But good discussion all around.

1160
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 2: Yes, sir, all right, that's gonna wrap it for us.

1161
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 1: Remember, we got tons of betting episodes on the channel

1162
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 1: reading up to week one, so check it out.

1163
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 2: We've got our NFC episodes up right now. We'll be

1164
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:44,880
Speaker 2: back with part two and.

1165
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 1: We'll talk the AFC South, the AFC that loaded AFC West,

1166
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 1: So be sure to keep it locked, subscribe, and if

1167
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: you like the pod, we lest whatever you have time

1168
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,160
Speaker 1: to do. You can find stuck on Twitter at Stucky too.

1169
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:58,919
Speaker 1: You can find me at Chris Raybond. You can find

1170
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 1: us at those same handles and a free award winning

1171
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 1: Action Network app, and be sure to check out Action

1172
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 1: network dot com for all of our NFL betting and

1173
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 1: fantasy and college football content. Until next time, let's get

1174
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 1: this money