1 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: This is not a hoax, This is not a joke. 2 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: It is becoming clear that we hold in our hands 3 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: the fate of the entire human race. Those of us 4 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: alive today are part of a very small group, including 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: us and perhaps a few generations to follow, who are 6 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: responsible for the future of humanity. And if it turns 7 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 1: out that we are alone in the universe, then even 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: the fate of intelligent life may hang in the balance. 9 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: No other humans have ever been in the unenviable position 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: that we are. No humans who lived before were actually 11 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: capable of wiping the human race from existence. No other 12 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: humans were capable of screwing things up so badly and permanently. 13 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: And those future humans to come won't be in this 14 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: position either. If we fail and the worst happens, there 15 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: won't be any future humans. And if we succeed and 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,960 Speaker 1: deliver the human race to a safe future, those future 17 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: humans will have arrived at a place where they can 18 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: easily deal with any risks that may come. We will 19 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: have made existential risks extinct. Taking all of this together, 20 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: everything seems to point to the coming century or two 21 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: as the most dangerous period in human history. It's an 22 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: extremely odd thing to say but together, you, me, and 23 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,680 Speaker 1: everyone we know appear to be the most vitally important 24 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: humans who have ever lived, and as much as is 25 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: riding on us, we have a lot going against us. 26 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: We are our own worst enemies when it comes to 27 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: existential risks. We come preloaded with a lot of biases 28 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: that keep us from thinking rationally. We prefer not to 29 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: think about unpleasant things like the sudden extinction of our species. 30 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: Our brains aren't wired think ahead to the degree that 31 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: existential risks require us too, And really, very little of 32 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: our hundred thousand years or so of accumulated human experience 33 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 1: has prepared us to take on the challenge that we 34 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: are coming to face, and a lot of the experience 35 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: that we do have can actually steer us wrong. It's 36 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 1: almost like we were dropped into a point in history 37 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: we hadn't yet become equipped to deal with. Yet, despite 38 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: how utterly unbelievable the position that we find ourselves in is, 39 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: the evidence points to this as our reality. The cosmic 40 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: silence that creates the family paradox tells us that we 41 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: are either alone and always have been where that we 42 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: are alone because no other civilization has managed to survive 43 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: if the latter is true. If the Gray Filter has 44 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: killed off every other civilization in the universe before they 45 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 1: could spread out from their home planets, then we will 46 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: face the same impossible step that everyone else has before 47 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: as we attempt to move off of Earth. And if 48 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: the Great Filter is real, then it appears to be 49 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,119 Speaker 1: coming our way in the form of the powerful technology 50 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: that we are beginning to create right now. But even 51 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: granting that the Great Filter hypothesis may be faulty, that 52 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: we aren't alone, that there really is intelligent life elsewhere, 53 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: we still find ourselves in the same position. We are 54 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: in grave danger of wiping ourselves out. There doesn't appear 55 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 1: to be anyone coming to guide us through the treacherous 56 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: times ahead. Whether we're alone in the universe or not, 57 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: we appear to be on our own in facing our 58 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: existential risks, all of our shortcomings and flaws. Notwithstanding, there 59 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: is hope. We humans are smart, widely ingenious creatures, and 60 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: as much as we like to think of ourselves as 61 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: something higher than animals, those hundreds of millions of years 62 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: of animal evolution is still very much in our nature. 63 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: And when we're backed into a corner that animal ancestry 64 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: comes rising to the surface. We fight, We rail against 65 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: our demise. We survive. If we can manage to join 66 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: that creature habit to the intelligence we've evolved that really 67 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: does make us different from other animals, then we have 68 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 1: a chance of making it through the existential risks that 69 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: lie waiting ahead. If we can do that, we will 70 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,679 Speaker 1: deliver the entire human race to a safe place where 71 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: it can thrive and flourish for billions of years. It's 72 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: in our ability to do this. We can do this. 73 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:43,239 Speaker 1: Some of us are already trying, and we've already shown 74 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 1: that we can face down existential risks. We've done it before. 75 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: We encountered the first potential human made existential risk we've 76 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: ever faced, in New Mexico, of all places. On July six, 77 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: at just before am, the desert outside of Alama Gordo 78 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: was the site of the first detonation of a nuclear 79 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: bomb in human history. They called it the Trinity Test. 80 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: At the moment the bomb detonated, the pre dawned sky 81 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 1: lit up brighter than the sun, and the landscape was 82 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: eerie and beautiful in gold and gray and violet, purple 83 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:34,919 Speaker 1: and blue. The explosion was so bright that one of 84 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: the bomb's designers went blind for nearly half a minute 85 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: from looking directly at it. By the blast sight, the 86 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: sandy ground instantly turned into a green glass of a 87 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: type that had never existed on Earth before that moment. 88 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: They called it trinotite to mark the occasion, and then 89 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: they buried it so no one would find it on 90 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: this day. At this moment, the world was brought into 91 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: the atomic age, an age of paranoia among everyday people 92 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: that the world could end at any moment. In less 93 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: than a month, America would explode an atomic bomb over 94 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 1: Hiroshima in Japan, and sixty five thousand people would die 95 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: in an instant. Another fifty five thousand people would die 96 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 1: from the bomb's effects over the next year, and three 97 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: days after Hiroshima, America would drop a second bomb over 98 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 1: Nagasaki and another fifty thousand people would die. But even 99 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 1: before all of the death and destruction that America reaked 100 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: on Japan in August of even before the trinity tests 101 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: that day in July, nuclear weapons became our first potential 102 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: human made existential threat when the scientists building the bomb 103 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: wondered if it might accidentally ignite the atmosphere. Edward Teller 104 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: was one of the leading physicists working on the Manhattan Project, 105 00:06:56,040 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: the secret program to build America's first nuclear weapons. By chance, 106 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: Teller was also one of the physicists that Enrico Fermi 107 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: was having lunch with when Faremi asked where is everybody, 108 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: and the Faremi paradox was born. Teller was also pivotal 109 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: in the nuclear arms race that characterized the Cold War 110 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: by pushing for America to create a massive nuclear arsenal 111 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: in three years before the Trinity Test, Edward Teller raised 112 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: the concern that perhaps the sudden release of energy that 113 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: the bomb would dump into the air might also set 114 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: off a chain reaction among the nitrogen atoms in the atmosphere, 115 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: spreading the explosion from its source in New Mexico across 116 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: the entirety of Earth. A catastrophe like that would burn 117 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: the atmosphere completely off of our plan, and that would 118 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: of course lead to these sudden and immediate extinction of 119 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: virtually all life, humans included. Almost immediately, a disagreement over 120 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: whether such a thing was even physically possible grew among 121 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: the physicists on the project. Some like Enrico Fermi, were 122 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: positive that it was not possible, but others, like Teller 123 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: in the future head of the project, J. Robert Oppenheimer, 124 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: weren't so sure. Eventually, Oppenheimer mentioned the idea to Arthur H. Compton, 125 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: who was the physicist that was the head of the 126 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: project at the time. Compton found the idea grave enough 127 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: to assign Teller and a few others to figure out 128 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: just how serious the threat of accidentally burning off the 129 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: atmosphere really was. The group that worked on the calculations 130 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 1: wrote a paper on the possibility that the bomb could 131 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: set off a nuclear chain reaction in Earth's atmosphere, igniting it. 132 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: Even using assumptions of energy that far exceeded what they 133 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: expected their tests to produce, the group found that it 134 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: was highly unlikely that the bomb would ignite the atmosphere. 135 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: Two years later, when the bomb was ready, they detonated 136 00:08:54,960 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: it the morning of the Trinity test. Enrico Fermi took 137 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: bets on whether the atmosphere would ignite after all. It 138 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: is to his credit that Arthur Compton took the possibility 139 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 1: of the nuclear test igniting the atmosphere seriously. The scientists 140 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: and military people working on the secret atomic bomb project 141 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: had every incentive to keep pushing forward at any cost. 142 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,199 Speaker 1: At the time, it was widely believed that Hitler and 143 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: the Third Reich were closing in on creating an atomic 144 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: bomb of their own, and when they completed it, they 145 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 1: would surely savagely unlea should across Europe, Africa, the Pacific, 146 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 1: and eventually the United States. In two when the idea 147 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: of the bomb might ignite the atmosphere was first raised, 148 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: it was far from clear who would be left standing 149 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: when the Second World War was over. And yet Compton 150 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: decided that the potential existential threat the nuclear test may 151 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: pose would be the worst of any possible outcomes. He 152 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: didn't call it an existential threat, but he knew one 153 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: when he saw one, even the first one. Better to 154 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: accept the slavery of the Nazis than to run the 155 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: chance of drawing the final curtain on mankind, Compton said 156 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: in an interview with the writer Pearl Buck years after 157 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: the test in nineteen fifty nine. And so it would 158 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: appear that the first human made existential risk we ever 159 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: faced was handled just about perfectly. But there's still a 160 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: lot left to unpack here. Buck reported that Compton had 161 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: drawn a line in the sand, as it were, He 162 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:41,319 Speaker 1: established a threshold of acceptable risk. He told the physicists 163 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: working under him that if there was a greater than 164 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: a three in a million chance the bomb would ignite 165 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: the Earth's atmosphere, they wouldn't go through with testing it. 166 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 1: It's not entirely clear what Compton based that threshold on. 167 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: It's not even clear if the threshold was a three 168 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 1: and a million chance or a one in a million, 169 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: and some of the Manhattan Project physicists later protested that 170 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: there wasn't any chance that either Compton had misspoken or 171 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: Buck had misunderstood. Regardless, the group that wrote the safety 172 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: paper found that there was a non zero possibility that 173 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 1: the test could ignite the atmosphere, meaning there was a chance, 174 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: however slight, that it could. It was possible for such 175 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: a chain reaction to occur. After all, the atmosphere is 176 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: made of energetic vibrations that we call particles, and those 177 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: particles do transfer energy among themselves, but the energies involved 178 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 1: in the nuclear bomb should be far too small. The 179 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: paper writers concluded it would take perhaps a million times 180 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: more energy than their plutonium core was expected to release. 181 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: For some of the scientists, the chance was so small 182 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: that it became transmuted in their minds to an impossibility. 183 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: They rounded that figure down for convenience's sake. The chance 184 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: was so small that to them there might as well 185 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: have been no chance at all. But as we've learned 186 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: in previous episodes, deciding what level of risk is an 187 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: acceptable level of risk is subjective. There are lots of 188 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: things that have much less of a chance of happening 189 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: than three in a million odds of accidentally igniting the atmosphere. 190 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: If you live in America, you have a little less 191 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: than a one in a million chance of being struck 192 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 1: by lightning. This year. You have a roughly one and 193 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: two hundred and ninety million chance of winning the Powerball. 194 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: Each person living around the world has something like a 195 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: one and twenty seven million chance of dying from a 196 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:41,680 Speaker 1: charchitect during their lifetime. Depending on your perspective, a three 197 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: and a million chance of bringing about these sudden demise 198 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 1: of life on Earth from a nuclear test isn't necessarily 199 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: a small chance at all, especially considering the stakes. And 200 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: yet it was up to Compton to decide for the 201 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: rest of us that the test was worth the risk. 202 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:03,479 Speaker 1: Arthur Holly kh Upton, aged sixty, living in Chicago, Illinois, 203 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:08,359 Speaker 1: a Nobel Prize winning physicist, father of two and tennis enthusiasts, 204 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: was put in a position to decide for the rest 205 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: of the two point three billion humans alive at the 206 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: time that three chances in a million their project might 207 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 1: blow up the atmosphere was an acceptable level of risk. 208 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: The idea that a single person can make a decision 209 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: that affects the entire world is a hallmark of existential risks. 210 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: Not only the existential risk poses a threat, but the 211 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: very fact that a single human being is making the decision, 212 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 1: with all of their biases and flaws and stresses, puts 213 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: us all at risk as well. There were a number 214 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: of different pressure points that the people involved in the 215 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 1: Manhattan Project would have felt pushing them towards the decision 216 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: to carry out the test. There were the Nazis, for one, 217 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: and the pressure from the U. S. Miller terry to 218 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: save the world from the Nazis. Their careers and reputations 219 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 1: were at stake. There was also the allure of a 220 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,959 Speaker 1: scientific challenge. No one had ever done what the people 221 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: working on the Manhattan Project did up to the moment 222 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: of the trinity test. No one was entirely sure that 223 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: a nuclear explosion was even possible. Consciously or not, these 224 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: things influenced the decisions of the people working on the project. 225 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: This is not to say that there was any cavalier 226 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: disregard for the safety of humanity. They took the time 227 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: to study the issue rather than just brushing it off 228 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: as impossible after all. But the point is that just 229 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: a handful of people working in secret were responsible for 230 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: making that momentous decision, and those people were only human. 231 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: It's also worth pointing out that a lot of the 232 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: science that the safety paper writers used was very new 233 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 1: at the time. The nuclear theory they were working off 234 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: of is less than forty years old, the data they 235 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: had on fission reactions was less than twenty years old, 236 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: and the first sustained nuclear fission reaction wasn't carried out 237 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: until when Fairmi held the first test on that squash 238 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: court at the University of Chicago. And don't forget there 239 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: had never been a nuclear explosion on Earth before. All 240 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: of that newness, by the way, showed up during the 241 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 1: Trinity test, when the bomb produced an explosive force about 242 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: four times larger than what the project scientists had expected. 243 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: All of this is to say that the data and 244 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: understanding of what they were attempting with the trinity test 245 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: was still young enough that they could have gotten it wrong, 246 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: and we find ourselves in that same situation today. We 247 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: see it in the types of experiments that are carried 248 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: out in particle colliders and bio safety labs around the world. 249 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: We see it in the endless release of self improving 250 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 1: neural nets. Our understanding of the unprecedented risks these things 251 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: pose is lacking to a dangerous degree. Depending on how 252 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: the chances of a risk changes, the threat it poses 253 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: can get larger or smaller, but really the reality of 254 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: the threat stays the same. It's our awareness of it 255 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: that changes. Awareness is the way we will survive becoming 256 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: existential threats m M. There are two ways of looking 257 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: at our prospects for making it to a state of 258 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: technological maturity for humanity where we have safely mastered our 259 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: technology and can survive beyond the next century or two. 260 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: Gloom and doom and optimism. The gloom and doom camp 261 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: makes a pretty good case for why humans won't make 262 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: it through this pastly the greatest challenge our species will 263 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: ever face. There's the issue of global coordination, the kind 264 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: of like mindedness that will have to create among every 265 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: country in the world to successfully navigate the coming risks. 266 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 1: Like we talked about in the last episode, we will 267 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: almost certainly run into problems with global coordination. Some nations 268 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: may decide that they'd be better off going it alone 269 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: and continuing to pursue research and development that the rest 270 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: of the world has deemed too risky. This raises all 271 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: sorts of prickly questions that we may not have the 272 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: wherewithal to address. Does the rest of the world agree 273 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: that we should invade non complying countries and take over 274 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 1: their government? In a strictly rational sense, that's the most 275 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: logical thing to do. Rationally speaking, Toppling a single government, 276 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: even a democratically elected one, is a small price to 277 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: pay to prevent an existential risk that can drive humanity 278 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: as a whole to permanent extinction. But we humans aren't 279 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: strictly rational, and something is dire as Invading a country 280 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: and toppling its government comes with major costs, like the 281 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: deaths of the people who live in that country and 282 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: widespread disruptions to their social structures. If the chips are down, 283 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: would we go to such an extreme to prevent our extinction. 284 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 1: There's also the issue of money. Money itself is not 285 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: necessarily the problem. It is what fund scientific endeavors. It's 286 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,400 Speaker 1: what scientists are paid with. Money is what we will 287 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: pay the future researchers who will steer us away from 288 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 1: existential risks. The Future of Humanity Institute is funded by money. 289 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: The problem money poses where existential risks are concerned is 290 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: that humanity has shown that we are willing to sell 291 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: out our own best interests and the interests of others 292 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: for money and market share, or more commonly, that we're 293 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: willing to stand by and let others do it, and 294 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: with existential risks, greed would be a fatal flaw. Everything 295 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: from the tobacco industry to the fossil fuel industry, the 296 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: anti freeze industry, to the infant formula industry, all of 297 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 1: them have a history of avarice, of frequently and consistently 298 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: putting money before well being and on a massive and 299 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: global scale. How can we expect change when money is 300 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: just as tied to the experiments and technology that carry 301 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: an existential risk. Also stacked against us is the bare 302 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: fact that thinking about existential risks is really really hard. 303 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 1: Analyzing existential threats demands that we trace all of the 304 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 1: possible outcomes that thread from any action we might take, 305 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: and look for unconsidered dangerous lurking there. They require us 306 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: to think about technology that hasn't even been invented yet, 307 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 1: to look a few more moves ahead on the cosmic 308 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 1: chessboard than we're typically capable of seeing. To put it mildly, 309 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 1: we're not really equipped to easily think about existential risks 310 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: at this point. We also have a history of overreliance 311 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,400 Speaker 1: on techno optimism, that idea that technology can save us 312 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: from any crisis that comes our way. Perhaps even thinking 313 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 1: that reaching the point of technological maturity will protect us 314 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 1: from existential risks is nothing more than an example of 315 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: techno optimism, And as we add more existential risks to 316 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: our world, the chances increase that one of them may 317 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 1: bring about our extinction. It's easy to forget since it's 318 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: a new way of living for us, But the technology 319 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: we're developing is powerful enough and the world is connected 320 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 1: enough that all it will take is one single existential 321 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: catastrophe to permanently end humanity. If you take the accumulated 322 00:20:56,160 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: risk from all of the biological experiments in the unknown 323 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: number of containment labs around the globe, and you add 324 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,479 Speaker 1: it to the accumulated risks from all of the runs 325 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 1: and particle colliders online today and to come, and you 326 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: add the risks from the vast number of neural nets 327 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 1: capable of recursive self improvement that we create and deploy 328 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 1: every day. When you take into account emerging technologies I 329 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 1: haven't quite made it to reality yet, like nanobots and 330 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 1: geoengineering projects, and the many more technologies that will pose 331 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 1: a risk that we haven't even thought of yet. When 332 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 1: you add all of those things together, it becomes clear 333 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: what a precarious spot humanity is truly in. So you 334 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: can understand how a person might look at just how 335 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 1: intractable the problem seems and decide that our doom is complete. 336 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: It just hasn't happened yet. I think we can be 337 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: a bit more optimistic than that. This is Toby Ord again, 338 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 1: one of the earliest members of the Future of Humanity Institute. Yeah, 339 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 1: I think that this is actually a clear and obvious 340 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: enough idea that people will wake up to it and 341 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: embrace it. Uh much more slowly than we should. But 342 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: I think that uh we will realize that this is 343 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: a central moral issue of our time and rise to 344 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: the challenge. But to begin to rise to the challenge, 345 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 1: we need to talk about existential risks seriously. The way 346 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: that anything changes, the way an idea or an issue 347 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: comes to be debated and its merits examined, is that 348 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: people start talking about it. If this series has had 349 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 1: any impact on you, and if you have, like I have, 350 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 1: come to believe that humanity is facing threats to our 351 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: existence that are unprecedented, with consequences that, on the whole 352 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,119 Speaker 1: we are dangerously ignorant of, then it is imperative that 353 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,719 Speaker 1: we start talking about those things. You can start reading 354 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 1: the articles and papers that are already being written about them, 355 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 1: start following people on social media who are already talking 356 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 1: about existential risks, like David Pierce and Elie as A 357 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: Yukowski and Sebastian Farquhar. Started asking questions about existential risks 358 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,880 Speaker 1: from the people we elect to represent us. I think 359 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:21,199 Speaker 1: we often feel that the powers that be must already 360 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,199 Speaker 1: have these things in hand. But when I've talked with 361 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 1: government about existential risk, even a major national government like 362 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 1: the United Kingdom, they tend to think that these issues 363 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:39,120 Speaker 1: saving civilization and humanity itself are above their pay grade. Uh, 364 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 1: and not really something they can deal with in a 365 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 1: five year election cycle. Um. But then it turns out 366 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 1: there's no one else above them dealing with them either. 367 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 1: So I think that there's more of a threat from 368 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: complacency in thinking that someone must have this managed. In 369 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 1: a rational world, someone would. It's up to the rest 370 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:04,679 Speaker 1: of us, then, to start a movement. The idea of 371 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: a movement to get humanity to pay attention to existential 372 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: risks sounds amorphous and far off, but we've founded movements 373 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: on far off ideas before. If enough people start talking, 374 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: others will listen. Just a handful of books got the 375 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: environmental movement started, like the ones written by the Club 376 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,919 Speaker 1: of Rome and Paul Airlick, but especially Rachel Carson's nineteen 377 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 1: sixty two book Silent Spring, which warned of the widespread 378 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 1: ecological destruction from the pesticide d d T. Carson's book 379 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 1: is credited with showing the public how fragile the ecosystems 380 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: of the natural world can be and how much of 381 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 1: an effect we humans have on them. Awareness of things 382 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:54,679 Speaker 1: like fertilizer runoff, deforestation, indicator species concepts that you can 383 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,439 Speaker 1: find being taught in middle schools today. We're unheard of. 384 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: At the beginning of the nineteen sixties, most people just 385 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: didn't think about things like that. But when the environmental 386 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: movement began to gain steam, awareness of environmental issues started 387 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 1: to spread. Within a decade of silent springs release, nations 388 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: around the world started opening government agencies that were responsible 389 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,120 Speaker 1: for defending the environment. The world went from ignorance about 390 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: environmental issues to establishing policy agencies in less than ten years. 391 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: And I think that that we could do some of that, 392 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 1: and it really shows that it is possible to take 393 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 1: something which is not really part of common sense morality, 394 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,119 Speaker 1: and then within a generation, uh children are being raised 395 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 1: everywhere with this as part of just a background of 396 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 1: beliefs about ethics that that they live with. So I 397 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: really think that we could achieve them. There is much 398 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 1: work to be done with environmental policy that is definitely 399 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 1: grant but we are working on it. Nations around the 400 00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: world on their own and together are spending money to 401 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 1: pay scientists and researchers to study environmental issues, come up 402 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: with an up to the moment understanding of them, and 403 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:13,639 Speaker 1: established best practices how to protect Earth from ourselves. The 404 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 1: trouble comes when we decide not to listen to the 405 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: scientists that we've asked to study these problems. Existential risks 406 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: call for this same kind of initiative. We have to 407 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: establish a foundation, provide a beginning that others to follow 408 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 1: can build upon. Just like Eric Drexler posed the rather 409 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: unpopular gray goose scenario regarding nanobot design, just like Eliezer 410 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: Yukowski and Nick Bostrom identified the AI should have friendliness 411 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,479 Speaker 1: designed into it. Just like others have raised the alarm 412 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: about risks from biotech and physics, if we examine the 413 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 1: problems we face, we can understand the risks that they pose. 414 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 1: And if we understand the risks that they pose, then 415 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: we can make an informed decision about whether they're worth pursuing. 416 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 1: The scientists working on the Manhattan Project did the same 417 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 1: thing when they took the possibility seriously that they might 418 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: accidentally ignite the atmosphere, so they investigated the problem to 419 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: see if they would. We don't at this point have 420 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 1: a clue as to what the possible outcomes for our 421 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 1: future technology. Maybe, and trying to guess at something like 422 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 1: that today would be like guessing back in the nineteen 423 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: fifties about what affects clear cutting old growth forests and 424 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 1: the Amazon Basin would have on global cloud formation. It's 425 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,400 Speaker 1: just too our kane a question for a time when 426 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: we don't have enough of the information we need to 427 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: respond in any kind of informed way. We don't even 428 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 1: know all of the questions to ask at this point, 429 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: but it's up to us alive now to start figuring 430 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:55,920 Speaker 1: out what those questions are. Working on space flight is 431 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,400 Speaker 1: another good example of where we can start. Among people 432 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 1: who study existential risks, it is largely agreed on that 433 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 1: we should begin working on a project to get humanity 434 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 1: off of Earth and into space as soon as possible. 435 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: Working on space colonization does a couple of things that 436 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:17,120 Speaker 1: benefit humanity. First, it gets a few of our eggs 437 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: out of the single basket of Earth, so should an 438 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: existential risk befall our planet, there will still be humans 439 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: living elsewhere to carry on. And Second, the sooner we 440 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 1: get ourselves into space, the larger our cosmic endowment will be. 441 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: One of the things we found from studying the universe 442 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: is that it appears to be expanding outward and apart 443 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 1: over deep time scales, the kind of time scales we 444 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 1: humans will hopefully live for. That could be an issue 445 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: because eventually all of the matter in the universe will 446 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 1: spread out of our reach forever. So the sooner we 447 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: get off Earth and out into the universe, the more 448 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 1: of that material we will have for our use to 449 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: do with whatever we can dream up. We are not 450 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 1: going to call anized space tomorrow. It may take us 451 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 1: hundreds of years of effort, maybe longer, but that's exactly 452 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: the point. A project that is so vital to our 453 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 1: future shouldn't be put off because it seems far off. 454 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 1: The best time to begin working on a space colonization 455 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: program was twenty years ago. The second best time is today. 456 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: We are working on getting to space. True, but there's 457 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: a world of difference between the piecemeal efforts going on 458 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: across Earth now and the kind of project we could 459 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: come up with if we decided to put a coordinated 460 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 1: global human effort behind spreading out into space. Imagine what 461 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: we could achieve if humanity work together on what would 462 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 1: probably be our greatest human project. Imagine the effect that 463 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 1: it would have on people across the globe. If we 464 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 1: work together to get not a nation, not a hemisphere, 465 00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 1: but the human race itself into space. The same holds 466 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: true with virtually every project for taking on existential risks. 467 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 1: We should begin working on them as soon as possible 468 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: to build a foundation for the future, and we should 469 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: make tackling them a global effort. I hope by now 470 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: I've made it abundantly clear that subverting scientific progress won't 471 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 1: protect us from existential threats. The opposite is true. We 472 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: need a scientific understanding of the coming existential threats we 473 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 1: face to get past them. The trick is making sure 474 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 1: that science is done with the best interests of the 475 00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: human race in mind. It's not something we commonly think 476 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: of ourselves as, but you and I and everyone else 477 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 1: in the world is a stakeholder in science. And this 478 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 1: is truer than ever before with the rise of existential threats, 479 00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 1: since the whole world can be affected by a single experiment. Now. 480 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: In the article in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, physicist H. C. 481 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 1: Dudley criticized Arthur Compton and the Manhattan Project for their 482 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: decision that a three and a million chance was an 483 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: acceptable risk for detonating the first nuclear bomb. They were 484 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: all rolling dice for high stakes, and the rest of 485 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 1: us did not even know we were sitting in the game. 486 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 1: Dudley wrote, the same is true today in making assumptions 487 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 1: about whether cosmic rays make an acceptable model for proton 488 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,080 Speaker 1: collisions in the Large Hadron collider, or that forcing a 489 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 1: mutation that makes an extremely deadly virus easier to pass 490 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: among humans is a good way forward in virology. Those 491 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:45,479 Speaker 1: scientists are making decisions that have consequences that may affect 492 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 1: all of us, So we should have a say in 493 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: how science is done. Science is meant to further human 494 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: understanding and to improve the human condition, not to further 495 00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: the prestige of a particular scientist's career. When those two conflict, 496 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 1: humanity should come first. But to say that the public 497 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: has and how science is done has to be an 498 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 1: informed say, no pitchforks and torches. This is why a 499 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: movement that takes existential risks seriously requires trustworthy, skilled, trained 500 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 1: scientists to make our say an informed one. We rely 501 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 1: on them for that. Science isn't the enemy. If we 502 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 1: abandon science, we are doomed. If we continue to take 503 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: the dangers of science casually, we are doomed. The only 504 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 1: route through the near future is to do science right, 505 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 1: and scientists aren't the enemy either. They have often been 506 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 1: the ones who have sounded the alarm when science was 507 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 1: being done recklessly or when a threat emerged that had 508 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: been overlooked. Those physicists who decided that three and a 509 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: million was an acceptable chance of burning off Earth's atmosphere 510 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: were the same ones who figured out that there was 511 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 1: something to be concerned with in the first place. It 512 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: was microbiologists who called for a moratorium and gain a 513 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: function research after the H five and one experiments. It 514 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:13,080 Speaker 1: was particle physicists who wrote papers questioning the safety of 515 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 1: the large hadron collider. If you're a scientist, start looking 516 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: seriously at the consequences of your field, and if work 517 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 1: within it poses an existential risk, start writing papers about it. 518 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: Start analyzing how it can be made safe. Take custody 519 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 1: of the consequences of your work. The people who are 520 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 1: dedicated to thinking about existential risks are waiting for you 521 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 1: to do that. This is Sebastian Farquhar. To a certain extent, 522 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:45,200 Speaker 1: organizations like the FHI, the Future of Humanity Institute UM 523 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 1: their job is just to poke the rest of the 524 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 1: community and sort of say by the way this this 525 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 1: is a thing, and then for AI researchers or biology 526 00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 1: researchers to take that on and to make it their 527 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: own projects. Um and the sooner and the more FHI 528 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 1: can step out of that game and leave it to 529 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: those communities, the better. Many of these solutions are already 530 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: being worked on. Scientists around the world are researching large 531 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,320 Speaker 1: problems and raising alarms. But since we have a limited 532 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 1: amount of time, since we're racing the clock, we have 533 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,319 Speaker 1: to make sure that we don't waste time working on 534 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: risks that seem big but don't qualify as genuine existential threats, 535 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 1: and we can't tell one type from the other until 536 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,879 Speaker 1: we start studying them. The biggest sea change, though, has 537 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: to come from society in general. We have to come 538 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: together like we never have before. We have to put 539 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 1: scientists in a position to understand existential risks, and we 540 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:49,879 Speaker 1: have to listen to what they come back and tell us. 541 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,920 Speaker 1: It is astoundingly coincidental that at the moment in our 542 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,440 Speaker 1: history when we become aware just how brief our time 543 00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 1: here has been and just how long it could last, 544 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,359 Speaker 1: we also realize that our history could come to an 545 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:19,400 Speaker 1: early permanent end, very soon. At the beginning of the series, 546 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,160 Speaker 1: I said that if we go extinct in the near future, 547 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:27,000 Speaker 1: it would be particularly tragic, and that is true. Human 548 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:31,800 Speaker 1: civilization has been around only ten thousand years. And remember 549 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 1: that a lot of people who think humanity could have 550 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,960 Speaker 1: a long future ahead of us believe that there could 551 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 1: be at least a billion years left in the lifetime 552 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 1: of our species. If we've created almost every bit of 553 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,800 Speaker 1: our shared human culture over just the last ten thousand 554 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 1: years or so, developed everything it means to be a 555 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,320 Speaker 1: human alive today in that short time span, think about 556 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 1: what we could become and what we could do with 557 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 1: another nine and ninety thousand years. It is not our 558 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: time to go, yet, there is something we have to consider. 559 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 1: The great filter has to this point been total. It 560 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 1: is possible that even if we come together, even if 561 00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,200 Speaker 1: humanity takes our existential risks head on, that it won't 562 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: be enough. That there will be something we miss, some 563 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 1: detail we hadn't considered, some new thing that grabs us 564 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 1: by our ankle just as we are making it through 565 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 1: and plux us right out of existence. If we go, 566 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,680 Speaker 1: then so many unique and valuable things go with us. 567 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,200 Speaker 1: The whole beautiful pageant of humanity will come to an end. 568 00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,800 Speaker 1: There will be no one to sing songs anymore, no 569 00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 1: one to write books and no one to read them. 570 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,360 Speaker 1: There will be no one to cry, no one to 571 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,040 Speaker 1: hug them when they do. There will be no one 572 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,520 Speaker 1: to tell jokes and no one to laugh. There will 573 00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 1: be no friends to share evenings with, and no quiet 574 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: moments alone at sunrise, good or bad. Everything we've ever 575 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 1: done will die with us. There will be no one 576 00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 1: to build new things, and the things that we have 577 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 1: built will eventually crumble into dust. Those energetic vibrations that 578 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 1: make up us and everything we've ever made will disentangle 579 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,759 Speaker 1: and go their separate ways along their quantum fields, to 580 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,600 Speaker 1: be taken up into new forms down the line, in 581 00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:40,920 Speaker 1: a universe where humans no longer exist. If we go, 582 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,239 Speaker 1: it seems that intelligence dies with us, there will be 583 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 1: nothing left to wonder at the profound vastness of existence 584 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:54,279 Speaker 1: and appreciate the extraordinary gift that life is. There will 585 00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,920 Speaker 1: be no one with the curiosity to seek out answers 586 00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,719 Speaker 1: to the mysteries of the universe, no one to even 587 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 1: know that the mysteries exist. There will be no one 588 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:07,759 Speaker 1: to reciprocate when the universe looks in on itself, there 589 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:13,239 Speaker 1: will be nothing looking back at it. But as genuinely 590 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,560 Speaker 1: sad as the idea of humanity going extinct forever is, 591 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,799 Speaker 1: we can still take some comfort in the future for 592 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:24,000 Speaker 1: the universe. We can take heart that if we die, 593 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:30,280 Speaker 1: life will almost certainly continue on without us. Remember, life 594 00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,959 Speaker 1: is resilient. Over the course of its tenure on Earth, 595 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:38,000 Speaker 1: life has managed to survive at least five mass extinctions 596 00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,120 Speaker 1: that killed off the vast majority of the creatures alive 597 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,560 Speaker 1: on Earth at the time. The life on Earth today 598 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,480 Speaker 1: is descended from just that fraction of a fraction of 599 00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 1: a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of life 600 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,720 Speaker 1: that managed to hang on through each of the times 601 00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: Death visited Earth, and every time after Death left, life 602 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 1: poked its head back, came back up to the surface, 603 00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:07,160 Speaker 1: and began to flourish again. If we humans called death 604 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,680 Speaker 1: back to our planet, life will retreat to its burrows 605 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,360 Speaker 1: and to the bottom of the sea to hide until 606 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 1: it's safe to re emerge. And perhaps when it does 607 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,400 Speaker 1: emerge again, one of the members of that community of 608 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,600 Speaker 1: life that survives us will rise to take our place, 609 00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,319 Speaker 1: to fill the void that we've left behind, just like 610 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,719 Speaker 1: we filled the void left after the last mass extinction. 611 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 1: Perhaps some other animal we share the Earth with now 612 00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,719 Speaker 1: will evolve to become the only intelligent life in the 613 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 1: universe and take their chance and making it through the 614 00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:46,240 Speaker 1: Great Filter. Perhaps someday they will build their own ships 615 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,319 Speaker 1: that will break their bonds to Earth and take them 616 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:54,040 Speaker 1: into space in search of new worlds to explore, just 617 00:39:54,120 --> 00:40:15,040 Speaker 1: like we humans tried so long before. M M. The 618 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,440 Speaker 1: End of the World with Josh Clark is a production 619 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,200 Speaker 1: from How Stuff Works and I Heart Media. It was 620 00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 1: written and presented by Me Josh Clark. The original score 621 00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 1: was composed, produced and recorded by Point Lobo. The head 622 00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 1: sound designer and audio engineer was Kevin Senzaki. Additional sound 623 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:35,240 Speaker 1: designed by Paul Funera. The supervising producer was Paul Deckan. 624 00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,239 Speaker 1: A very special thanks to you, Me Clark for her 625 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 1: assistance and support throughout the series production and to MOMO 626 00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:45,920 Speaker 1: to thank you to everyone at the Future of Humanity Institute, 627 00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,359 Speaker 1: and thanks to everyone at How Stuff Works for their 628 00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:53,840 Speaker 1: support and especially Sherry Larson, Jerry Rowland, Connal Burne, Pam Peacock, 629 00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:59,760 Speaker 1: Nathan Natoski, Tary Harrison, Ben Bolden, Tamika Campbell, Noel Brown, 630 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:06,160 Speaker 1: Jenny Powers, Chuck Bryant, Christopher Hastosis, Eve's, Jeff Cote, Matt Frederick, 631 00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:11,759 Speaker 1: Tom Boutera, Chris Blake, Lyle Sweet, Ben Juster, John go Forth, 632 00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:17,040 Speaker 1: Mark fresh Hour, Britney Bernardo and Keith Goldstein. Thank you 633 00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:21,280 Speaker 1: to the interviewees, research assistants and vocal contributors Dana Backman, 634 00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:27,560 Speaker 1: Stephen Barr, Nick Bostrom, Donald Brownlee, Philip Butler, Coral Clark, 635 00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:34,520 Speaker 1: Sebastian Farquhar, Toby Halbrook, Robin Hansen, Eric Johnson, Don Lincoln, 636 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:43,160 Speaker 1: michel Angelo Mangano, David Madison, Matt McTaggart, Ian O'Neill, Toby Ord, Casey, Pegrham, 637 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:49,719 Speaker 1: Ander Sandberg, Kyle Scott, Ben Schlayer, Seth Shostack, Tanya Singh, 638 00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:55,560 Speaker 1: Ignacio Taboada, Beth Willis, Adam Wilson, cat Sebis, Michael Wilson, 639 00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:59,600 Speaker 1: cat Sebas, and Brett Wood And thank you for listening. 640 00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:01,239 Speaker 1: W