1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal hell that for me. 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 2: I'm a man, I'm forty. 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: I've heard so many players say, well, I want to 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: be happy. You want to be happy for a day? 5 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Edith State is that woof woof? 6 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: And them and ty. 7 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: Welcome back to the solid burbb of boys and girls. 8 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 3: My name is Hildebrandt, joining me as always over there 9 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 3: in Chicago, Illinois, the one and only deanrew Berstein. 10 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: Sir, how are you? I'm pretty good? I am. I 11 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 1: was not on the previous show, was I No, I 12 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: was on the previous show, the show before that, So 13 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 1: it's good to get a rhythm with you once again. 14 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: I was not on the nil show. Correct? Correct? You 15 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: interviewed Michael Felder and Ross Ellinger Felder from Stadium and 16 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: I amg Learfield Audio and uh and Ross Ellinger from SI. 17 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:52,959 Speaker 1: So I'm glad to be back in a rhythm. I'm 18 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: glad to be back with you. I'm glad to be 19 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: back with our guest who are having on for the 20 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: first time in a while. 21 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 3: Man Bill Connolly, long time for the show. Bill Connolly, 22 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 3: formerly of Vespianation, now with the ESPN. Bill is the 23 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 3: like the Grand puba of all things advanced metrics as 24 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,279 Speaker 3: it relates to college football. The sp plus is something 25 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 3: that we cite regularly here on the show that we've 26 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 3: taken great stock in over the last couple of years 27 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 3: as we've tried to put together our own projections and 28 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 3: predictions and just to be more informed about the sport 29 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 3: on the whole. The sp plus and what Bill does 30 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 3: is all just very rich content. So we had him 31 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 3: on last year. I think if memory serves, either in 32 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 3: the throes of the pandemic or during the pandemic, just 33 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: to try and make heads or tails of what all 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 3: the numbers meant. And I think we're trying to continue 35 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 3: some of that conversation today, just looking forward now into 36 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. How much of what we saw last 37 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 3: year is relevant? How much of it are we crumpling 38 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 3: up and throwing into the waste basket. 39 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: Well, I mean there were elements to me ty that 40 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: rang true no matter how many, no matter the kind 41 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: of year or season it was. I mean, Notre Dame 42 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: losing on the stage they lost on felt like a 43 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: like a piece of normalcy in troubled times. So I'm 44 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: a kid, I'm a snarky idiot, It's a very good question, 45 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: and it's very difficult to make heads or tails of it. 46 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: So I'm extremely thankful that we got Bill see to 47 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: come on the show and sort of talk about everything 48 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: from a numbers perspective, everything from a non numbers perspective. 49 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: I want to ask him about his campaign to be 50 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: college football commissioner from a few years ago and how 51 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: that's coming along, and just in general, you know, how 52 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: his numbers have evolved in evaluating and projecting out the 53 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: sport we love, for sure. 54 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: So Bill Connelly will be stopping on by here momentarily 55 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 3: as we slowly ramp up and get a little bit 56 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: closer to the college football season. Dan, don't forget, We've 57 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 3: got all sorts of excitement coming towards the end of 58 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 3: next week. 59 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:01,119 Speaker 1: We hope you will be with us. Yeah, I hope 60 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: you'll be with us on well, nine days out. We're 61 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: nine days out from an off topic show available to 62 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: Patreon for Ballers only, forballers dot com for more information. 63 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 3: Twelve years in the making, Yes, that's been the branding. 64 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 3: You came up with that on the fly, and it's 65 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 3: good tell. 66 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:25,119 Speaker 1: Of years in the making. A show that I think 67 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: I've wanted to do for a long time, and there 68 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: have been obstacles and we now get to do the show. 69 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 3: We now get to do the show. We will talk 70 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 3: about that verballers dot com again. The off topic show 71 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 3: will be available only to our Patreon subscribers, but a 72 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 3: lot of excitement coming next week, so we hope you'll tune. 73 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: In for that. 74 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 3: Dan, how about, without further ado, we kick it over 75 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: to our friend Bill. All Right, Dan joining us once again, 76 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 3: longtime friend of the podcast, you know him well, works 77 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 3: for ESPN these days. His name is mister Bill Kohly, Sir, 78 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 3: how you doing. 79 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: I'm good. How are you guys doing? It's been a while, 80 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 2: it's been I don't know. I don't know what time 81 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: is anymore, Like I think. 82 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 3: It's it's a flat circle. And you're also wearing your 83 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 3: soliverble T shirt, which I don't Did you coordinate that 84 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 3: in advance or did we just pick you on the day. 85 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 2: This was the creepiest thing. You kind of revealed that 86 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: you do have cameras established in our house somewhere. Because 87 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 2: Dan sent me an invite like two hours ago, I 88 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 2: was already wearing it. I was already ready. 89 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: I love it. I love it, And the answer is yes, 90 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: we do. 91 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 2: We don't tell me wearing like I don't want to know. 92 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:31,239 Speaker 2: Just it's fine. 93 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 1: We have information on most notable college football media personalities, 94 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: and it's we're using it for data mining and advertising. 95 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: That noble. That's where it's. Yeah. So yeah, everybody should 96 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: be reading Bill Connelly. I mean he's previewing teams, he's 97 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: doing tennis things, he's doing soccer things. He's at ESPN, 98 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: ESPN Plus and doing his previews. Right now, you're on 99 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: the Big Twelve, I believe. 100 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 2: Not out the first half of the Big Twelve, this 101 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 2: week's second half next week. 102 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 1: Did you learn anything? Was there anything surprising to you 103 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: when you dug into the Big twelve? Specifically this is. 104 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 2: Very specific, but the one thing that I like, I 105 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 2: had to fact check twice because it just didn't make 106 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:15,919 Speaker 2: sense to me. Steck hasn't had a winning record in 107 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 2: five years. Yeah, I mean they've had a two bowls 108 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 2: finished sixth and seven or whatever, so I mean sort of, 109 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 2: but yeah, it's it's it's it's kind of dire there, 110 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 2: or at least not not Kansas dire, but it just 111 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: hasn't like there's been no momentum whatsoever. There For quite 112 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: a while. 113 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: In Aluit, Kansas, dire could be a term that we. 114 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: I mean, really selective. You gotta be really selective when 115 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 2: you use it, because that is dire. 116 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: Yeah, is is there are there other teams that that 117 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: you've been previewing not that are necessarily dire where you're 118 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 1: just like, I did not realize that, either in a 119 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: positive or negative way. We're like, I huh that that 120 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: rushing attack these last three years has been appendus? Yeah, 121 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 1: anybody like that. 122 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 2: Well, on the negative side, Stanford was that threw me 123 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 2: off a little too. There were sixtieth and as people 124 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 2: last year won some close games and the record was okay, 125 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 2: but just like the fundamentals, especially on defense, were just 126 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 2: dreadful and where whereas such a large portion of the 127 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 2: country returns like everybody this year. They you know, they 128 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 2: lose their their starting quarterback and Fojoko and most of 129 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 2: their defense comes back. But that's really a good thing, 130 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 2: and so you know it is that was kind of 131 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 2: a weird, Like the projections on them, they were projected 132 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 2: sixty eight. Then it just kind of threw me off 133 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 2: because they were I mean, they did have a decent record, 134 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 2: but that one that one tip a little getting used 135 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 2: to it. 136 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 1: I'm not. 137 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 2: I mean, we'll see they've got pieces obviously, but we'll 138 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 2: see if they can that more of them. 139 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: That could be a metric time. Maybe you're really good 140 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: at branding. What is it about? So we have a 141 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: lot of returning production this year because of the eligibility 142 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: stretching obviously twenty twenty was you could choose to have 143 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: it effect eligibility or not. And you've just written a 144 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: number of a number of pieces about returning production and 145 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: the importance or lack thereof. I wonder if there is 146 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: some kind of branding for yes, they return a lot, 147 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: but like returning bad production. I don't know if there's 148 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: a way to brand that. 149 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 2: Right, That's all. You know. That's something that every time 150 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 2: I post like updated returning production figures like I did 151 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 2: Tuesday Night, there's it kind of has the same conversational 152 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 2: cycle because you look at that and you see the 153 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 2: top teams and you're like, they're going to be good 154 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 2: this year, Like, no, they're going to be beat. That's 155 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 2: there's a difference if you were the whole like you know, 156 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 2: garbage and garbage out or whatever, like having a bunch 157 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 2: of returning production means you're probably going to improve. That 158 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 2: doesn't mean that I'm looking at the list here. That 159 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 2: doesn't mean Rutgers is ready to be like a top 160 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 2: twenty team just because they returned ninety two percent of 161 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 2: their production. It wasn't very good production. It was better, 162 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 2: but I want a very good East Carolina at fifteenth scrolling. Actually, 163 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: a lot of these teams are pretty good. Acrid being 164 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: twenty fifth probably doesn't mean a lot for accron this right, 165 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 2: So that is something that always you see your name 166 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 2: up top or at the bottom, where like Alabama, Ohio State, 167 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 2: those types of teams are like, they're probably still going 168 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: to be pretty good. But it's all about you know, 169 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: this is a really good barometer for whether you're moving 170 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 2: up or down well. 171 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 3: And another point too, and it kind of leads into 172 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 3: our line of questioning here. Context for twenty twenty is 173 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 3: so important. I think the last time we spoke with you, 174 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 3: one of the things that we wanted to know, and 175 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 3: it might have been mid season if memory serves, we 176 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 3: wanted to know at the time, how are you like 177 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 3: viewing all the statistical information? And your answer at that 178 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 3: time was eh, I'll get back to you. I really 179 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 3: have no idea. Do we know anything now that can 180 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 3: help maybe inform how you view twenty twenty one or 181 00:08:55,920 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 3: is it still sort of like, eh, well, I think yeah. 182 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 2: Like so, I mean, the first thing I did I 183 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 2: had I tried to crank out as much of the 184 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 2: returning information as possible in January. Right at the beginning 185 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 2: of February, we put out the initial returning production figures, 186 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 2: initial sp plus projections, all that stuff, and so at 187 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 2: that point I was just kind of flying along. 188 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: Like. 189 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 2: One of the things to keep in mind, I guess 190 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: is that, you know SP plus there's a you know, 191 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 2: a sliding scale so to speak, Like after if you've 192 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 2: played three games, then your rating is based on x 193 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 2: percent of the preseason projections and then it slowly gets 194 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 2: paced out as the season goes. So in a lot 195 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,679 Speaker 2: of these cases, teams all I played three or four 196 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 2: games and their final sp plus had a whole bunch 197 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 2: of those preseason projections in there, and so that's very 198 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: much not optimal. But the more I think about it, 199 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 2: I mean, it's just I mean, it is what it is. 200 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 2: Like the point of those projections are basically program health 201 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 2: you know, like, how are you recruiting, how have you 202 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 2: performed over the last two, three, four, five years, and 203 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 2: then you know how much of last year's team do 204 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 2: you return? The more of the summer that goes by, 205 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 2: I'm more comfortable. It's just kind of leaning on those 206 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 2: long term figures and saying here, I mean, we probably 207 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 2: know how these teams are going to be based on that. 208 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 2: And one of the things I've done since those initial 209 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 2: projections is I've just kind of set up a sliding 210 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,079 Speaker 2: scale too, for if you were played only if you're 211 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: Ohio and you played three games last year, your returning production, Like, 212 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 2: I mean, they return a lot of their production, that's great, 213 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 2: but it's only going to have like it's not going 214 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 2: to have as big an effect as like Alabama playing 215 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 2: thirteen games. So it's going to lean even more on 216 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 2: those long term recruiting, well, mostly long term performance numbers, 217 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: just because that seems to make the most sense to me. 218 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 2: It's just that if they're pretty stable overall, and that's 219 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 2: what I'm going to go with, that's going to hurt 220 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 2: the PAC twelve. If you saw those initial projections, right, 221 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 2: everybody in the PAC twelve was returning back in February, 222 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 2: and therefore they were all like projected to jump up 223 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 2: into the top twenty five. They're still going to be projected, 224 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 2: you know, to improve, but it more like top thirty 225 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 2: or thirty five, not necessarily like seven teams in the 226 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 2: top twenty five or whatever it was. So that's kind 227 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 2: of that's where I'm at peace with the situation. Now 228 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,119 Speaker 2: we're just going to land on those long term factors. 229 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 2: They're probably going to be a pretty good no matter what, 230 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 2: and then we'll just, uh, we'll see how that goes. 231 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 3: Have you gotten any feedback? I mean I already know 232 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 3: the answer to this. Yes, you've gotten feedback, But you know, 233 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 3: anytime you post any new metric, have you gotten any 234 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 3: interesting qualifiers? Because I would expect that you would probably 235 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 3: have seen your fair share of them after twenty twenty. 236 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 2: My favorite so far is anytime I mentioned anything about 237 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,319 Speaker 2: projections or whatever, there will be at least one lsufin 238 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 2: that I know that I've interacted with many times, say why, 239 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 2: I just don't think twenty twenty s she count for anything. 240 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 2: And there's there's a very clear stray. 241 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: And return both Polini bo Polini should be. 242 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 2: Back sure exactly, No like there's a there's a clear 243 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: line of logic to it, and I understand it. At 244 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 2: the same time, they had a whole bunch of plays, 245 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: whole bunch of drives, whole bunch of games, and looked 246 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 2: bad for a good portion of them, and that still 247 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 2: means something. It doesn't mean now that twenty twenty is 248 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: over and we were going to pretend we never hired Pollini, 249 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 2: we got another coordinator and it's gonna be twenty nineteen 250 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 2: all over again. Everything's fine. It still means something that 251 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 2: they struggled as much as they did last year, But 252 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 2: at the same time, Stingley was snake bitten all year 253 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 2: and the defense had just comical communication breakdowns that you 254 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 2: rarely see from a major defense. That's probably not going 255 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 2: to happen again. The offense, of course, was playing three 256 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 2: different quarterbacks and all those things. It's clear that those 257 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 2: you know, it was not as relevant a sample as 258 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 2: you would normally get. But I'm sticking by the logic 259 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: that it still means something, and like ls's going to 260 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 2: be a kind of borderline top twenty five in the projections, 261 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. Like's they could obviously be much 262 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 2: more if they go twelve and oh, we're gonna be like, oh, yeah, 263 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 2: of course they did, look how talented they are, but 264 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 2: on average they're still probably not going to do that. 265 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: Was there anything confirmed because of the extreme circumstances of 266 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: twenty twenty in that, like, okay, here is something that 267 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: confirmed a suspicion of mine about home field advantage or 268 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: playing on the road or weeks off or weird injury 269 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: luck and guys sitting out. Was there anything because of 270 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: the extreme nature of everything, Was there anything that actually 271 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: helped confirm things? 272 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 4: No, okay, is midway through the season, the answer would 273 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 4: have absolutely been yes, because you know, home field the 274 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 4: first I don't remember what it was now four six 275 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 4: weeks of the season, I kind of just started off 276 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 4: playing with a one point home field advantage instead of 277 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 4: a normal like two and a half. 278 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: Well, when I was started to play with the numbers 279 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 2: a month or so into the season, it seemed like 280 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 2: it should probably be more like about a half point 281 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 2: as opposed to two and a half, which was really interesting. 282 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 2: And then the rest of the year the value started 283 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 2: going up from there, Like I don't know if that 284 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 2: was a trend or if it was just regression or whatever. 285 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 2: It was, so I became less certain about that than 286 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 2: I was before. And then early on, like s P 287 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,319 Speaker 2: plus killed the first half for the season, it got 288 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 2: killed the second half of the season. But even with 289 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 2: all the postponements and you know, Virginia Tech missing seventeen 290 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 2: players for that one game or whatever, projections were kind 291 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 2: of good and so I was thinking, you know, that's 292 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 2: that's a good sign for those like these big program 293 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 2: health types of things that I talk about, like this 294 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 2: is still very reliable, whether it's this person playing or 295 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 2: that or whatever. And I felt pretty good about that. 296 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 2: Then s P plus got its butt kick the second 297 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 2: half of the year, when you know, when a whole 298 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 2: bunch more players and team just kind of checked out. 299 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 2: So yeah, like I thought I had some read on conclusions, 300 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 2: and then the second half of the season I had 301 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 2: done whatsoever. 302 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: So how different overall was sp plus last year than 303 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: previous years with regular sample sizes. I don't know if 304 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: it's against the spread or just compared, Like, I don't 305 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: know what metric you use as success for SP plus. 306 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the two I generally tend to lean on. Well, 307 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 2: I mean against the spread, because that's what everybody wants 308 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 2: it to, wants to see out of it. That's definitely 309 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 2: when you kind of have to track. And then the 310 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 2: other one is just this absolute error figure, which is 311 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 2: basically like whichever direction you miss, how many points are 312 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 2: you missing by. So in a good year, it'll be 313 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: fifty three fifty four percent against the spread and like 314 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 2: a twelve and a half something in that neighborhood point 315 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 2: average error. Basically last year it was like fifty one 316 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 2: percent and like thirteen point one something in that neighborhood 317 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 2: thirteen point two maybe, So it was definitely off. Even 318 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 2: earlier in the year when it was doing well against 319 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 2: the spread, it still wasn't hitting twelve and a half 320 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 2: in terms of that average error, but I mean it 321 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 2: was still over fifty percent. 322 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: It was still like it wasn't significantly swung in a direction, right, 323 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: It was still better than flipping a coin. It was 324 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: just that, among other things, Vegas had a better read 325 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: because you know, when you're setting those lines, you are 326 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 1: much more you're accounting for injuries, accounting. 327 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: For absences and all that stuff, and s P plus 328 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: isn't designed to do that over. 329 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: The long term. And this is something you've chronicled your 330 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: five factors, right, the factors that help to that most 331 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: determine who wins a game, obviously, and I believe this 332 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: is still the case. Explosiveness, how well you generate big 333 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: plays and how well you prevent big plays is the 334 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: biggest telltale sign of who is going to win a game. 335 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: Of your five factors, have any of those five factors, 336 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 1: So that's also what efficiency field position the turnover battle, 337 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: I'm missing one of them right now. Finishing drives. Have 338 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 1: any of those swung in a bigger sample size like 339 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: in the last five years, Have any of them gone 340 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: up down, two, three, four, five percent anything like that? 341 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 2: Not really? I mean, I think the most interesting thing, 342 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 2: the most interesting conclusion that I've reached about anything in 343 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 2: like the last five years, is just how reliable the 344 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 2: efficiency angle is compared to explosiveness. For instance, like you 345 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: countu the big plays in the turnovers, you know who 346 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 2: probably won the football game. But you can't then coach 347 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 2: that and say, well, hey, go right, make big plays, 348 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 2: don't turn the ball over, go take that ball away. 349 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 2: You know that doesn't that's not coachable really. But the 350 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 2: efficiency angle, that's success rate measure I've always talked about, 351 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 2: you know, fifty percent on first down, seventy second, hundred 352 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 2: percent on third and fourth. That that is easily the 353 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 2: most stable and reliable and so that through the years 354 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 2: that has come to take on more weight within sp 355 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 2: plus as a whole. And you know that feeds into 356 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,360 Speaker 2: how well you finish drives. If you're able to carve 357 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 2: out smaller chunks of yards, that probably that's a decent 358 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 2: sign that you're able to finish drives well. It's a 359 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 2: field position thing because even if you punt, if you've 360 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 2: gotten two first downs first, they're going to be pinned 361 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: inside the twenty. So it feeds into all those other factors. 362 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 2: For the most part, it feeds into expulsiveness really because 363 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 2: you've got to be on the field to get the 364 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 2: big plays. You got to stay on the field to 365 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 2: get the big plays. So that that really has kind 366 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 2: of crystallized in my mind, like that that is the 367 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,239 Speaker 2: most important thing. And it's great because coaches have been 368 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 2: preaching it for years and in this case they've they've 369 00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 2: been right to do. 370 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: So have there been any metrics that are getting close 371 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: to cracking that top five? Like, is the percent a 372 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: metric that I love that you do right now? And 373 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: you tweet about this and write about this is the 374 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: percentage of drives that go three and out right right. 375 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: There's something about that that that rings true to me. 376 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: I don't know if it is statistically significant like the 377 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: other five, but that's something when you watch a game 378 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 1: and you see your team consistently go three and out, 379 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 1: you're like, there's no way we're winning this game. 380 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 2: Right, No, I mean that's that's the other side of 381 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 2: the field positioning. If you're going three and out, you're 382 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,959 Speaker 2: losing the field position back, right, Yeah. I mean basically 383 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 2: that feeds into efficiency the my favorite, my HAVOC rate 384 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 2: you tackles for loss and passes, defense and force fumbles 385 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 2: per play. Basically that also informs that success rate measure 386 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 2: for obvious reasons. I mean, you're pushing people backwards. Not 387 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 2: only are you, you know, preventing a successful play on 388 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 2: that play, you're also creating like a third and fifteen 389 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 2: that they're probably not going to convert. And that's another 390 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 2: point in your favor from a success rate standpoint. Things 391 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 2: like that are very useful and they kind of feed 392 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 2: into it, but really they feed into success rate and 393 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 2: success rate. It's still kind of the dominant measure there. 394 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 3: Bill, Do you have any way in the sp plus 395 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 3: to quantify new coaches or changes in a coaching. 396 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: Track record of coaches and specific things? Yeah? 397 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so I can say that overall. I 398 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 2: already have that spreadsheet pulled up. Let's see go on 399 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 2: here to go, because I was playing with this earlier. 400 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 2: So on average a coach's first year, on average, you're 401 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 2: going to drop about zero point eight adjusted points per game. 402 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 2: That's how I present SP plus is adjusted points per game. 403 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,919 Speaker 2: You're going to drop about zero point eight on average 404 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 2: that first year. Now, you know if you were if 405 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 2: you're inheriting a terrible team, then you're more likely to 406 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 2: improve than if you were inheriting a great one. So 407 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 2: there's still context there, But I thought it was interesting enough. 408 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 2: Year two, however, you improve on average by two point 409 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 2: seven points per game. Your three is one point three, 410 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 2: your four is zero point one, and then basically five onward. 411 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 2: It is just kind of a slow trickle down effect 412 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 2: unless you're next save it apparently. But so that's kind 413 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: of the average, like you're most likely to make And 414 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 2: we've talked about this before, and you know, it's kind 415 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 2: of semi common knowledge at least, like, yeah, your second 416 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 2: year is is your best leap opportunity, your third year 417 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 2: is your next best leap opportunity, and then after that, 418 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 2: I mean you're either you've either already leaped or you've 419 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 2: gotten fired pretty much, so it does you know that 420 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 2: second year leap opportunity is big. And that's kind of 421 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 2: interesting heading into this year because like, if Washington gets 422 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 2: a second year leap, they're like a top seven or 423 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 2: eight program, But was last year? A first year doesn't 424 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 2: count as a first year last year? Is this like, 425 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 2: so we'll see what kind of effect I played with 426 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 2: that because I wanted to see if I should add 427 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 2: that to the projections themselves. I know FPI does that, 428 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 2: then you know ESPN Stats and Infogroup does that with 429 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 2: their number, and I saw I've been fiddling with it, 430 00:20:58,440 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 2: but I don't think I'm going to do it this year, 431 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 2: just because I don't know what of that data actually 432 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 2: means this year. 433 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 3: So when Bill, when you're looking at a at a coach, 434 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 3: maybe not a new coach, but someone who's been there 435 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:12,640 Speaker 3: while I'll use Harball Jim Harbaugh as an example, or anybody, frankly, 436 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,360 Speaker 3: are you looking at that individual on like a three year, 437 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 3: four year time horizon, Like, if it's working by the 438 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 3: end of the fourth year, we're good. If it's not, 439 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 3: or if it starts to trickle you see that number 440 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 3: go in the opposite direction sooner. Are you able to 441 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 3: use that with any kind of reliability to predict who's 442 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 3: going to be canned versus who's going to stick around? 443 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't not directly, Like, I don't include 444 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 2: that in the you know, it's Jim Harbaugh's sixty year 445 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 2: or whatever it is now, Therefore they're not likely to 446 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 2: jump any higher than the curlier like that doesn't make 447 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 2: it any into the numbers, certainly makes it into the opinions. However, 448 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 2: I mean, we certainly know his best chance for a leap, 449 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 2: and he did. He did engineeringly those first two years, 450 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 2: but he didn't get quite as far as everyone hoped. 451 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 2: And now we've seen that kind of slow trickle down. 452 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 2: It is hard to reach bound once you've kind of 453 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,719 Speaker 2: gone past that the initial three four five year cycle. 454 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 2: It's not impossible, and it's we don't have a big 455 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: sample of guys who've got the chance to rebound. Some 456 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:14,640 Speaker 2: of them did, Gary Pinkle, but yeah, but like that 457 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: that is certainly a concern if you're a Michigan fan 458 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 2: right now is like it's you can turn the ship 459 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 2: around again. It's just it's a lot harder to do 460 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 2: the second time. 461 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 3: I bring up coaches in the first place, because on 462 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 3: the last episode Dan and I did, he basically backed 463 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 3: me into a corner into being Steve Starkesian's biggest fan. 464 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm in the front car of the bandwagon. 465 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 3: In the front car of the bandwagon. Okay, this is 466 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 3: why we invited him on Dan, Yes, of course. So 467 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 3: what we did on the last episode is we looked 468 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 3: at some of the early lines, for whatever that's worth, 469 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,120 Speaker 3: and I think we saw in week two, maybe Texas 470 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 3: is a Yeah, Texas is only a three and a 471 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,879 Speaker 3: half point favorite against Arkansas. There's a game later in 472 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 3: the year against TCU where they're a one and a 473 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,239 Speaker 3: half point dog. There are a couple there were like 474 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 3: three or four Texas games that we called out, and 475 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 3: it felt to me like the lines were disrespecting Texas 476 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 3: in like a true Michigan state fashion. It just didn't 477 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 3: seem right to me that they would not be given 478 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 3: more respect. What did you see when you did the 479 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 3: breakdown of the Big twelve and looking at Texas, why 480 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 3: are you in the front car of that bandwagon. 481 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's really annoying when you're like, you know, 482 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 2: who's underrated this year, Texas. There's nothing more frustrated than that. 483 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 2: You feel so gross. I mean, the big thing with 484 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 2: Sarkesian is he never like the wrap he got at 485 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 2: Washington was you know, they never really broke through, They 486 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 2: never got the they never won a division title, they 487 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,639 Speaker 2: never whatever. Yeah, he inherited a program that ranked one 488 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 2: hundred and fourteenth in SP plus and even if you 489 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 2: use like a five year average, because I mean they're 490 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 2: obviously special circumstances are just weirdness it all, you know, 491 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 2: snowballs that last year they still were at like a 492 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 2: top seventy five average before he arrived at Washington. Then 493 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 2: they went sixty seven, sixtieth, fifty, third, forty ninth and 494 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 2: fifteenth the last year, lost a couple of close games, 495 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 2: only went nine and four that last year, and Washington 496 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,359 Speaker 2: fans were just fed up with him, like this is 497 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 2: just we're done. He's a mediocre coach. We need somebody doing. Granted, 498 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 2: they still made an upgrade when he left for USC. 499 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 2: They then turned around and got one of the five 500 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 2: best coaches in sports, so they made it upgrade. But 501 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 2: those are the guys I ended up finding myself defending 502 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 2: a lot, as you know. The yesterday I had a 503 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 2: Big twelve fan or Minnesota fan yelling at me because 504 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 2: in my Big twelve preview I said Glenn Mason was 505 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,640 Speaker 2: underrated at Kansas. He was so mediocre, Like, yeah, here's 506 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 2: what Kansas and Minnesota were before he was there. Here's 507 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 2: where they were when he was there, and then here's 508 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 2: where they were when they left. Like it was still 509 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 2: he still he achieved more, as did Sarkisian, than he 510 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 2: was given credit for. So that's I don't I've never 511 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 2: really considered him an he'd head coach, but I found 512 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 2: myself defending him a whole lot over these last five, six, seven, 513 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 2: eight years. And then he goes to Alabama. Eventually, we know, 514 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 2: you know, everything that happened to USC and all those things, 515 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 2: but he goes to Alabama and crafts the most not 516 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,679 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to talk specifically about talent, 517 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 2: but you know last year they had the most modern, 518 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:16,920 Speaker 2: perfectly modernized offense and optimized offense that we've ever seen, 519 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 2: even more than Nellisu the year before. Yes, talent had 520 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 2: to play with that, but just the way they created matchups, 521 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 2: the way they used motion, the way they used RPOs, 522 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 2: all those things. Like he has he knows what a 523 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 2: perfect offense looks like. That doesn't mean the Texas is 524 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 2: going to rank first in every offensive metric this year, 525 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 2: but he, like, I'm confident at this point, I'm as 526 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 2: confident in his offensive knowledge as anybody in the sport. 527 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 2: And he's got the John Robinson and maybe a good 528 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 2: quarterback and fast receivers and all that. So I think 529 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 2: there's definitely reason to for them to at least play 530 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 2: like a top twenty level. I mean, obviously, you know 531 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 2: we're thinking of this. You know, if it's Texas, then 532 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 2: top twenty isn't really you know, amazing. But at the 533 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: very least, their often should be awesome, and their defense 534 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 2: we'll see. I love the Kreatkowski higher, but you know, 535 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 2: they definitely have experience. They've always had experience and recruiting 536 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 2: rankings in their favor, and that hasn't resulted in good 537 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 2: defense in a while. But yeah, everything you're saying, like 538 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 2: right now, I'm looking at you know, from those February 539 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 2: projections that I talked about, I had them favored by 540 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 2: only five against Louisiana because Louisiana just blew up the 541 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 2: returning production measure out of the water. But then I 542 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 2: have them favored by six against Arkansas, nineteen against Tech, 543 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 2: three against TCU. What did you say those lines were? 544 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 1: Techs was a dog by a point and a half 545 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: against TCU. TCU was a point and a half favorite 546 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: at home against. 547 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 2: I don't really. I mean, TCU could be awesome too, 548 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,719 Speaker 2: but they have more offensive question marks than Texas has 549 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 2: defensive question marks. I think, so, yeah, yeah, no, I 550 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 2: I would. I see them as as certainly a top 551 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 2: twenty team. And it's real real to count the ifts 552 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 2: as that piece that are right each June. It doesn't 553 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,400 Speaker 2: take that many ifs to make them a top five 554 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 2: or ten team. 555 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: I'm glad we got to sark and Alabama's twenty twenty, 556 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 1: which and I look this up and you include this 557 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:18,679 Speaker 1: in your metrics, but they're points per drive without without 558 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: garbage time was something like four point four points per drive, 559 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: which is cartoonish. It's an absolute cartoon It's the biggest 560 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: number I think ever if we were probably to look back, 561 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 1: it seems like it is more than any of those 562 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,199 Speaker 1: Oregon or more of those Oklahoma Lincoln Riley teams. I know, 563 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 1: when you look at like NBA advanced metrics, we know pace, 564 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,479 Speaker 1: we know you know, offensive rating, defensive rating, and we 565 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,879 Speaker 1: can adjust per the era, right like we know that 566 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,359 Speaker 1: you know, in the last ten years. Whatever is the 567 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: case with the NBA of how many possessions per game 568 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 1: do you adjust for era? Can you look at like 569 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 1: what Alabama's twenty twenty one relative to the last five years, 570 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,239 Speaker 1: medium in points per drive whatever, how much of an 571 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 1: outlier that is for the era compared to say, I 572 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: don't know, Nebraska's nineteen ninety five offense relative to the era. 573 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 1: Is that something that you've ever examined? 574 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 2: I mean sort of, because like I still, you know, 575 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 2: we still only have complete play by play going back 576 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 2: to you know, oh five ish base right, That's true, 577 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 2: and so it's hard to dive too far into some 578 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 2: of these just because we I mean, from before that 579 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 2: we'll probably have yards per game and yards per play 580 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 2: and points per game and all that, but we won't 581 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 2: have necessarily the dramatic selection of detail that we now have. 582 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,239 Speaker 2: I can say, as I played with the filter on 583 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 2: this little spreadsheet that I have pulled up that in 584 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 2: the last what do you want to say, fifty years, 585 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 2: We'll say fifty years. So since nineteen seventy twenty twenty, 586 00:28:52,960 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 2: Alabama ranked tenth in offensive best people as a person 587 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 2: centile of everybody's offensive ratings. So not just that raw. 588 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 2: I mean they're justin points per game last year is 589 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 2: fifty point eight. That's pretty ridiculous. But when you adjust 590 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 2: for the eras and the other teams in the country 591 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 2: that year, right, they graded out of the ninety nine 592 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 2: point seven percentile or sorry, ninety nine point nine percent 593 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 2: dile on offense. The nineteen eighty three Nebraska offense is 594 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 2: the best on record in that time with ninety nine 595 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 2: point ninety nine four percentile. So it was it was 596 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 2: right there. It was right there with the best offenses 597 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 2: we've seen. The other ones from the twenty first century. 598 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 2: The only ones above it are twenty eighteen Oklahoma, which 599 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 2: was pretty great. Yeah, right, and strangely enough two thousand 600 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 2: and four in Louisville. That's a that's a fun one 601 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 2: to throw into the mix there. 602 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: And we always assume, obviously with every sport. Athletes get better, 603 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: coaches get better over time, so it's not crazy to say, oh, yeah, yeah, 604 00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty Alabama offense and dealing with the smart 605 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 1: coaches and players have ever been, in terms of technology 606 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: and scouting as the best offense probably we've seen. 607 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 2: It was. Actually, it's funny to think about the stats 608 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,920 Speaker 2: that Mac Jones produced last year and the fact that 609 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 2: he didn't win the Heisman. I think the Alabama's perfection 610 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 2: hurt him. Yeah, because he didn't end up. He's still 611 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 2: at the end of the year didn't really get all 612 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 2: the credit. He was like, wow, well me, they just 613 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 2: look at that talent, like, well, yeah, a lot of 614 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 2: teams have had talent and loads of talent, but nobody 615 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 2: else had done that before. And he was not only 616 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 2: he was the second quarterback on the Heisman voting, and 617 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 2: he was the second Alabama player on the Heisman voting. 618 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 2: And that's still kind of mind blowing to me. 619 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 1: I want to go back to factors a little bit. 620 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 1: Is there anything that you wish you had data on 621 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 1: that you think would make your numbers smarter? That's just 622 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 1: you know, is it injuries, whatever it is? Is that 623 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 1: what I see you not and say what do you 624 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 1: wish you had? 625 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the injury thing is, I think it's 626 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 2: harder now. It's worse now than it was like five 627 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 2: years ago to keep up with who who's out, who's 628 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 2: hurt and all that that, you know, Because I mean 629 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 2: now I got you know, I've got the I got 630 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 2: the worldwide leaders dashboard. It might as look guy, yeah, 631 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 2: pressure numbers, I got snap numbers. I got all these 632 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 2: things now that I wish I had for like the 633 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 2: last twenty years, so I could kind of compare and 634 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 2: understand what I'm seeing a little better. But we still 635 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 2: just don't really have, especially after last year, you know, 636 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 2: being able to isolate, you know, how many games the 637 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,239 Speaker 2: you know, displayer or that player was out and what 638 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 2: effect it had. Because I mean that that really does. 639 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 2: I mean, it would be great to have like an injury. 640 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 2: Just at SP plus, they're they're twenty their six point 641 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 2: eight favorites six point eight point favorites, but the quarterbacks 642 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 2: hurt therefore they're only three point seven point favorites or whatever. 643 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 2: But just compiling that is really hard. One of the 644 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 2: gambling sites, don best dot com had a good running 645 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 2: list for a couple of years there, but I remember, yeah, 646 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 2: I don't think it was even all that up to 647 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 2: date last year or not nearly as reliable. And because 648 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 2: finding the information is hard and coaches are getting more 649 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:07,400 Speaker 2: paranoid and making that information less available, and so that's frustrating. 650 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:08,959 Speaker 2: I think that it would be great to have a 651 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 2: reliable injury list, so to speak. And we're never going 652 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 2: to a college at the college level. 653 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: When you look at year to year improvement, is there 654 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 1: a metric that you find teams outperform their expectations per 655 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 1: sp plus and underperform expectations because like, okay, they their 656 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: talent wasn't all that different, their schedule was pretty typical, 657 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 1: but they're ha a rate shot up or they're passing 658 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,440 Speaker 1: explosion rates shot up. Is there is there an outperform 659 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 1: underperform number that you tend to see well, to. 660 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 2: Flip that around the other way, there are definitely the 661 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 2: numbers that you know if they were too good or 662 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 2: too bad last year, whether whether sp plus accounts for 663 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 2: them or not or only does indirectly, it's it's you know, 664 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 2: you've got plenty of those factors. The old phil Steel 665 00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 2: turnovers equal turnaround, right, and you know I've got my 666 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 2: second order win totals and everything where you know, looking 667 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 2: at the postgame expectancy number that I come up with, 668 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 2: but like it's it's really been because I mean every 669 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 2: year somebody goes like six and one in one score 670 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 2: games and therefore drastically over achieves its record, and you 671 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 2: can Bud Elliott and I at Espionation for a long 672 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 2: time tried to kind of isolate like one of the 673 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 2: factors that go into that certain coaches are more likely 674 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 2: to win close games or maya was always get out 675 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 2: of Bill Snyder can Liamdololo. They always overachieved by like 676 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 2: one win per year compared to what s PEO plus 677 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 2: thought they should have had. But what is it about 678 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 2: those Is it the ones that had that really can 679 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 2: just always convert third and threes? They have a good kicker, 680 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 2: you know they can right there, They're always in field 681 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 2: goal range, they can, you know, just some of those factors. 682 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,080 Speaker 2: That was one of the things but always talked about. 683 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 2: It is like quarterbacks and good special teams. Those two things, 684 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,080 Speaker 2: it seems like can make at least a one win 685 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 2: difference per year. So that's always there are always those 686 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,680 Speaker 2: teams that catch fire and some of them do it 687 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 2: too much and it's unsustainable. But you do figure there's 688 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 2: something in there regarding just the little details, the middle 689 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 2: eight that Clemson always does well at and all those 690 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 2: little things that you can just produce a few more 691 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:15,879 Speaker 2: points per game. And that's something that I don't think 692 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,600 Speaker 2: s people probably accounts for enough. Like it gets down 693 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 2: that road that probably doesn't account for quite enough. 694 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 1: Yet let's stick with coaches, because you are so deep, 695 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: both with your previews and looking at the numbers all 696 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 1: year long and watching the games that you watch. It 697 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,480 Speaker 1: all goes into your sort of brain stew Are there 698 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: any coordinators that and I'm just talking purely from production, 699 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,760 Speaker 1: and a lot more goes into either hiring the coordinator 700 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 1: as a head coach or taking a coordinator at a 701 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 1: smaller place and making him a coordinator at a bigger place. 702 00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,800 Speaker 1: Are there coordinators that whose name you repeatedly see or 703 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,320 Speaker 1: whose schools you repeatedly see, and you think to yourself, 704 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 1: somebody get this guy, Somebody throw money at this human. 705 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:02,880 Speaker 2: One of them is Great Kowski at Washington now Texas. 706 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 2: He was one that I was been interested in for 707 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:06,879 Speaker 2: a while. Obviously, Jimmy Lake kind of hopped his name 708 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:11,200 Speaker 2: in the pecking order for Peterson replacement. But he's been 709 00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 2: associated with a lot of really really good defenses. Ady 710 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 2: Avolois is one, Yeah, and he went back to like 711 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,680 Speaker 2: the perfect spot for him, obviously, going back to Boise State. Yeah, 712 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 2: his defense wasn't even all that amazing last year. But 713 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 2: now I'm very very confident that he's going to do 714 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 2: well at Boise State. He knows everything he needs to 715 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 2: know there. Let's see, I had to pull up a 716 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 2: list of teams because I was guaranteed, yeah, somebody. But 717 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 2: I do think. 718 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,839 Speaker 1: Well, I remember I remember seeing like Todd Orlando's name 719 00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 1: at Utah State, and he like he would put together 720 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: the best rushing defenses year in and year out with 721 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,960 Speaker 1: his defense. And I remember Tom Herman hired him without 722 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: ever having met him, just because his reputation preceded him. 723 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,560 Speaker 1: And he actually put together some good defenses in Texas 724 00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 1: and you know had bad injury lock. They are all 725 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 1: sorts of things that went into it. But there are 726 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,640 Speaker 1: always those names. You're like, somebody's somebody's going to hire 727 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 1: this guy. 728 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 2: And I think with a lot of those guys, like 729 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 2: it's basically like Don Brown, if you get Don Brown 730 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 2: two good cornerbacks and two good defensive ends, doesn't really 731 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 2: matter what else he has, He's going to have a 732 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 2: killer defense. And so maybe it's the same way with Orlando. 733 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 2: He obviously improved USC quite a bit there. He had 734 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,720 Speaker 2: great safeties and at least one good cornerback at USC 735 00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,160 Speaker 2: last year, whereas year before Texas their their defensive back 736 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 2: deal was a giant mess, both in terms of injuries 737 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 2: and development. So, you know, maybe it is kind of 738 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:37,280 Speaker 2: like that. You just each guy needs a couple of pieces, 739 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 2: a couple of items for and then he can make 740 00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,720 Speaker 2: a good stew out of it. So along those lines, 741 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,759 Speaker 2: like give Phil Longo a couple of deep threats, Yeah 742 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,560 Speaker 2: he's gonna use them. Like that doesn't mean he's gonna 743 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 2: he would be a great offensive coordinator, Like I don't. 744 00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,720 Speaker 2: I mean, I almost don't want to name a school 745 00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,840 Speaker 2: because he would sound mean now, But but like it, 746 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,440 Speaker 2: you know, if you go to a school where you've 747 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,759 Speaker 2: got a three hundred and sixty pound lineman and three 748 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 2: good running backs, but the receivers are all kind of 749 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,360 Speaker 2: slot possession guys, maybe he doesn't really know what to 750 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,880 Speaker 2: do with that recipe. Give him two deep threats and 751 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 2: a quarterback you can throw a long way and he 752 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 2: probably is going to score thirty five points game. So 753 00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 2: that's kind of been interesting. It was funny at the 754 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 2: end of last year with everything being so weird, like 755 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:29,239 Speaker 2: when guys did get fired and the coaching changes were 756 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 2: still made, I didn't really have a list in my 757 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 2: head of Okay, this guy better get get a job 758 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 2: this year. And maybe that's why we saw kind of 759 00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 2: a weird set of HighRes like the Beamers of the 760 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:43,040 Speaker 2: world who didn't really have the killer coordinator experience. But 761 00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,279 Speaker 2: it was I mean, everything else was so weird about 762 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, so that's not a surprise. But you know, 763 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:49,360 Speaker 2: we got to the end of the road just didn't 764 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,040 Speaker 2: have a list of this guy has to get ahead 765 00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,560 Speaker 2: coaching job this year kind of kind of names. 766 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 3: Hey, Bill, I've got in front of me an old 767 00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 3: article of yours going back to so a little over 768 00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,280 Speaker 3: four years ago, which you know, we were all younger 769 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,320 Speaker 3: and more full of life back then. 770 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:07,760 Speaker 2: Naive more naive. 771 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,239 Speaker 3: Sure this is back in your espionation days. This was 772 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,440 Speaker 3: your Bill Connolly for a college football commissioner piece. 773 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,760 Speaker 1: Ah, Yes, and it's interesting. 774 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,440 Speaker 3: On a number of levels, because you had nine pillars, 775 00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,960 Speaker 3: nine things that you were including as part of your 776 00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,880 Speaker 3: vision for college football. By my count, four four and 777 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,319 Speaker 3: a half five of them have actually been fixed. Now 778 00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 3: fixed is a relative term. Mind, you've addressed, they've addressed, 779 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,239 Speaker 3: thank you, thank you addressed. They've expanded the playoff now 780 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 3: you had advocated at the time for six to eight teams. 781 00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,520 Speaker 3: There's a lot going on now, as you know, with 782 00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 3: nil which could bring back the video game, which is 783 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,319 Speaker 3: one of the things that you called out, as well 784 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,439 Speaker 3: as modifying what amateurism means. There's a tie in there 785 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 3: with like a student athlete Bill of Rights. Recruiting has 786 00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:58,280 Speaker 3: been tweaked along the way here where is the bill 787 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:02,040 Speaker 3: C for CFB commissioner at right now? How are you 788 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,200 Speaker 3: feeling like this campaign's been dormant, let's say, for a while, 789 00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:10,600 Speaker 3: but if you had the dust off the old vision statement, 790 00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,840 Speaker 3: how are you feeling about the state of college football 791 00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,520 Speaker 3: with some of the advances we've made. 792 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,920 Speaker 2: I feel like I'm a pretty good commissioner, honestly, YEA 793 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,040 Speaker 2: nailing it? No? I mean yeah, Like obviously some of 794 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,040 Speaker 2: the more addressed in ways that I didn't necessarily in ten, 795 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,880 Speaker 2: Like we rezumed right past eight to twelve, which still 796 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 2: I don't dislike a twelve team playoff, but I still 797 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,759 Speaker 2: just kind of like, wow, that wasn't necessary. It was good, 798 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,840 Speaker 2: but now like we're in a world War twenty sixteen, 799 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,480 Speaker 2: Colorado goes to the playoff, and I just like I'm 800 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 2: still wrapping my head around that a little bit. But no, 801 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,920 Speaker 2: like the modernizing and amateurism thing, obviously that works, not 802 00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,359 Speaker 2: done by any means, but we just we finally four 803 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,040 Speaker 2: years later, like ten years after we all started talking 804 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:56,279 Speaker 2: about it, like that hurdle has been clear to some 805 00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 2: regard in the next year's so much fun because everybody's 806 00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,319 Speaker 2: just gonna be throwing stuff with the wall. Half of 807 00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 2: it's not going to work. That Jim in Miami that's 808 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,760 Speaker 2: going to apparently start paying like six hundred thousand dollars 809 00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,839 Speaker 2: a year to Miami athletes. We'll see if that keeps up, 810 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 2: but like that's going to be the marketplace is going 811 00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,680 Speaker 2: to be fascinating, and then it'll kind of right itself 812 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,680 Speaker 2: and I'm sure it will start to benefit Alabama within 813 00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:23,120 Speaker 2: a couple of years. But still like that's that has 814 00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,279 Speaker 2: been at least addressed, and we are finally going down 815 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,800 Speaker 2: that road, and we can kind of put a tentative 816 00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,279 Speaker 2: X over that one. That one's been nice. The Student 817 00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,399 Speaker 2: Athlete Bill of Rights thing was was intended to kind 818 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,400 Speaker 2: of go down that same road, and it was intended 819 00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,680 Speaker 2: to not only cover name, image, likeness, but just like 820 00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,839 Speaker 2: long term healthcare and some of those things that ended 821 00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,240 Speaker 2: up in it was it was a Chris Murphy's Senate 822 00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 2: bill that probably won't pass because there's a lot of 823 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,319 Speaker 2: other stuff in there that people will reject, but that 824 00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:54,279 Speaker 2: one just the healthcare aspect of things, especially if you know, 825 00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,440 Speaker 2: even though the students get to make money now and 826 00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 2: that's awesome, like just if we're really going to set 827 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,360 Speaker 2: a system up to where our teams are playing seventeen 828 00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:06,800 Speaker 2: games up to seventeen games, like, the healthcare aspect of 829 00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:10,080 Speaker 2: things still needs to very much be specifically addressed in 830 00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,319 Speaker 2: this case, whether it's just like you know, insurance, whether 831 00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,920 Speaker 2: it's a medical trust fund, whatever it is. So that 832 00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:19,359 Speaker 2: one is I think the ball is rolling, but we're not. 833 00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:23,879 Speaker 2: There's nothing specific about that. Yeah. The video game, that one, 834 00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,200 Speaker 2: it was funny, like all these serious things I had 835 00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:27,839 Speaker 2: in there in the video game was the one that 836 00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,480 Speaker 2: without a doubt. Yes, yes we have to. Yeah, but 837 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 2: not only name image like this, but the group licensing. 838 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,239 Speaker 2: The progress that's been made in that regard seems like 839 00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 2: we're headed within a couple of years to getting the 840 00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:40,000 Speaker 2: video games. 841 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,720 Speaker 3: It's such a weird turn of events as it relates 842 00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,719 Speaker 3: to the video game, because we've had this conversation this show. 843 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,040 Speaker 3: I'm sure you've had it, you know, countless times on 844 00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:52,560 Speaker 3: your own bill. It is incredible to me that we're 845 00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,160 Speaker 3: going to look back at that last version of the 846 00:41:55,280 --> 00:42:00,040 Speaker 3: NCAA video game and when we tell the story of 847 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,960 Speaker 3: college football fifty years from now, that video game is 848 00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,160 Speaker 3: going to have such an outsized impact on the way 849 00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,640 Speaker 3: things went as it relates to amateurism and just like 850 00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 3: so many different aspects of college football, we could never 851 00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:16,239 Speaker 3: have predicted that back then, but this is this is 852 00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:17,080 Speaker 3: where we're at now. 853 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:18,960 Speaker 2: Didn't really see that coming when I was playing in 854 00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:20,200 Speaker 2: ninety eight in. 855 00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,759 Speaker 3: The dorms, right, we're on year ninety eight of our dynasty, right, like, 856 00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:25,840 Speaker 3: you could never have foreseen that it would have that 857 00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:27,000 Speaker 3: kind of lasting impact. 858 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, that it has been, and that game in particular, 859 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,279 Speaker 2: like not even we still a Madden technical you can 860 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,879 Speaker 2: still play football on any video game platform, but that game, 861 00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,680 Speaker 2: in particular in the Dynasty mode specifically, was just a 862 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,799 Speaker 2: even more of a game changer than we realized at 863 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,279 Speaker 2: the time when we were, you know, staying up all 864 00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:47,719 Speaker 2: night and playing into twenty twenty four or whatever is 865 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:52,160 Speaker 2: right in the dorms. But yeah, like that when like 866 00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,040 Speaker 2: what else, games are too damn long. That was another 867 00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,080 Speaker 2: one of the pillers. 868 00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:56,960 Speaker 1: So I was going to bring that up. 869 00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,120 Speaker 3: So the ones that I'm looking at that have been 870 00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,320 Speaker 3: addressed in some regard bringing back the video game, expanding 871 00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,680 Speaker 3: the playoff, the student Athlete Bill of Rights, and amateurism, 872 00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:09,160 Speaker 3: those kind of have morphed together to some extent. And recruiting, right, 873 00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,560 Speaker 3: Recruiting is is kind of always in a state of 874 00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:17,279 Speaker 3: being addressed before on here that I wanted to talk 875 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,200 Speaker 3: through with you very quickly. You have a couple things 876 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:24,120 Speaker 3: related to scheduling, so fixed scheduling by scrapping divisions and 877 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:27,919 Speaker 3: moving to like a pods setup which we can which 878 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,719 Speaker 3: we can discuss of course. Yeah, we have non conference scheduling, 879 00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,279 Speaker 3: and you've labeled this get weird. This is introducing the 880 00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,320 Speaker 3: concept of having like a bracketbuster Saturday of sorts to 881 00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,200 Speaker 3: maybe be a little bit more contextual as it relates 882 00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:42,160 Speaker 3: to a season. 883 00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,280 Speaker 1: Promotion relegation, which I love that's never going to happen. 884 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:50,239 Speaker 1: That will never happens. It's a ballsy effort. I love 885 00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,960 Speaker 1: the idea somehow, and this is this is like a 886 00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:56,880 Speaker 1: branch coming out from the trunk of promotion relegation. I 887 00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,200 Speaker 1: love the idea in the way that and maybe we'll 888 00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,200 Speaker 1: do an episode and the couple weeks about this that 889 00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,279 Speaker 1: there are really intriguing elements of other sports, right Like 890 00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,839 Speaker 1: at the top of F one racing, which I've really 891 00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:10,080 Speaker 1: gotten gotten into, they have like a mid tier I 892 00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:11,719 Speaker 1: forget what the name of it is, but like there's 893 00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,080 Speaker 1: like a legitimate battle for like number four, right, Like 894 00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,520 Speaker 1: everybody's like, well, look, we're not in the top three, 895 00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,520 Speaker 1: but like we can be the best of the rest 896 00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:23,160 Speaker 1: and be legitimately respected for it. There has to be 897 00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:26,279 Speaker 1: some sort of weird element as the top of the 898 00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,920 Speaker 1: sport sort of pulls away recruiting wise, champions championship wise, 899 00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,120 Speaker 1: that we can say, okay, but here's this other thing 900 00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,200 Speaker 1: that we can take pride in. I don't know what 901 00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:35,480 Speaker 1: it means. 902 00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:41,080 Speaker 2: The bottom the very broad stroke idea behind promotion relegation 903 00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:45,080 Speaker 2: is make this damn sport like actually merit based. Yeah, 904 00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,800 Speaker 2: you know, because that was, you know, as the example 905 00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,279 Speaker 2: I always give, like all most of these conferences are 906 00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:53,399 Speaker 2: their membership is dictated primarily by who your friends were 907 00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:58,279 Speaker 2: in nineteen thirty two, and therefore Kansas football always gets 908 00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,160 Speaker 2: to be a power conference team. Boise State will never 909 00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,400 Speaker 2: be a power conference team because they didn't have the 910 00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,400 Speaker 2: right friends in nineteen thirty two. Boise Day was a 911 00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,280 Speaker 2: community college, I guess at that point. But that plus 912 00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,080 Speaker 2: geography means they're screwed. No matter how many how many 913 00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,000 Speaker 2: things you do right in a row, you will never 914 00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,840 Speaker 2: have the membership that the power conference membership that like 915 00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:23,080 Speaker 2: wake Forest does, and that sticks. I mean, sorry to 916 00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:24,080 Speaker 2: Deek fans, but. 917 00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,719 Speaker 1: And wake Forest is totally fine. They are totally fine 918 00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:28,680 Speaker 1: that they're not Kansas. 919 00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:29,800 Speaker 2: But yeah, I see what you're. 920 00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,399 Speaker 1: Saying, right, not Kansas dire, right right right, Kansas dire. 921 00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,480 Speaker 2: But yeah, like, no matter how many wrong things Kansas 922 00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,239 Speaker 2: does in a row, they're in the Big twelve no 923 00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:43,600 Speaker 2: matter what. And you know, it just kind of most 924 00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,680 Speaker 2: you know, like obviously, the promotion of relegation idea came 925 00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,000 Speaker 2: from European soccer, and European soccer has its own has 926 00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,680 Speaker 2: versus have nots problem. It's not like it solves everything, 927 00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,120 Speaker 2: but you know, it was just the idea that this 928 00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,200 Speaker 2: sport is just never has never been nearly a merit 929 00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,080 Speaker 2: based enough, and we should figure out ways to do that. 930 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:03,080 Speaker 2: One of the things I'm curious about is, yeah, we're 931 00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,280 Speaker 2: not going to have a promotional relegation, but the one 932 00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:09,040 Speaker 2: when I don't remember what years this was. Now again, 933 00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,799 Speaker 2: time is not my friend, but when the Big Twelve 934 00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,040 Speaker 2: the last time the Big Twelve was thinking about expanding, 935 00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,960 Speaker 2: you know, and they were stringing Houston along and then 936 00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:20,319 Speaker 2: decided to not to do that after all. But one 937 00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,920 Speaker 2: of the things that came about from that was like, 938 00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,920 Speaker 2: what if the Big Twelve expanded to twenty four teams 939 00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,920 Speaker 2: and was just two big twelves, like, you know, just 940 00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,600 Speaker 2: incorporate the AAC and have was just like a one 941 00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:35,200 Speaker 2: conference promotion relegation thing based on like the you know, 942 00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,919 Speaker 2: you have two twelve team conferences, the two worst go down, 943 00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,120 Speaker 2: the top two from the bottom come up. Like within 944 00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:42,960 Speaker 2: a structure, you could kind of do that, especially if 945 00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:44,359 Speaker 2: we're going to be in an era now where there's 946 00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,800 Speaker 2: no such thing as a Power five where the six 947 00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:51,840 Speaker 2: top conference champions get in. Like how fun was that? Like, 948 00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,319 Speaker 2: you know, you want to create a conference network where 949 00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:58,279 Speaker 2: you you always have inventory and always have something going 950 00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:02,200 Speaker 2: on that have a twice to you. So like even 951 00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,560 Speaker 2: if we even if we can't connect the SEC and 952 00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,200 Speaker 2: the Sun Belt to where Vanderbilt gets relegated and app 953 00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,080 Speaker 2: State goes up or whatever, we can still do that, 954 00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:10,680 Speaker 2: Like that would be well. 955 00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:14,320 Speaker 1: Then suddenly the Big twelve becomes the coolest conference. Is 956 00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:18,600 Speaker 1: that it's the unique quality of one you're gonna get 957 00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,640 Speaker 1: a hell of a TV deal. Two, you get to 958 00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,279 Speaker 1: talk about the Big twelve in a different way than 959 00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:26,279 Speaker 1: you get to talk about any other conference. And three, 960 00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,200 Speaker 1: even if you're not a Big twelve fan, you're probably 961 00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:31,919 Speaker 1: more likely to have an eye on that conference more 962 00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:34,360 Speaker 1: than perhaps another conference that you're not affiliated with. 963 00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:38,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you're the you got basically that top tier, 964 00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:40,920 Speaker 2: that twelve team conference. Whoever is in it in a 965 00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,440 Speaker 2: given year is gonna be the best conference in the 966 00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:45,840 Speaker 2: country or the second best at worst, Like nobody's going 967 00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:47,600 Speaker 2: to be outside the top four have the dead conference 968 00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:50,480 Speaker 2: because all the dead weight's gone down and the whoever, 969 00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:52,839 Speaker 2: the Houston's and the Cincinnaties of the world are now 970 00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,160 Speaker 2: in the Big twelve, and you've just got a glut 971 00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:56,240 Speaker 2: of awesome teams. 972 00:47:56,280 --> 00:48:01,160 Speaker 1: And it also solves a sort of playoff off entry issue, 973 00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,400 Speaker 1: right that like, you're not you're not getting into the 974 00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,080 Speaker 1: playff And obviously now it's changed with whenever the twelve 975 00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:11,360 Speaker 1: teamer starts. But if Cincinnati keeps just wrecking shop, it 976 00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,960 Speaker 1: also keeps coaches at places. Right, it's it's continuity. If 977 00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:17,680 Speaker 1: if Luke Fickle keeps winning ten eleven games at Cincinnati 978 00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:21,080 Speaker 1: and Cincinnati is now considered to be a whatever Power 979 00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,319 Speaker 1: five champion, what reason does he have if he has 980 00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:28,280 Speaker 1: the infrastructure and the ability to get into the playoff 981 00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:31,759 Speaker 1: every year and get buys or whatever. What Why would 982 00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,399 Speaker 1: he go to Michigan State, which he turned down. Why 983 00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,640 Speaker 1: would he go to Virginia or Texas Tech something like that? 984 00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:40,719 Speaker 2: Right, Tom Hermon doesn't have to leave Houston. He can 985 00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:42,680 Speaker 2: just go and continue to try to build the state 986 00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,920 Speaker 2: of Houston, you know, seal the borders there and do 987 00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:48,520 Speaker 2: really the things he was He was doing some really 988 00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,239 Speaker 2: fun things there. There's nothing saying he would have kept 989 00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:51,920 Speaker 2: it up even if they were in the Big twelve. 990 00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:55,160 Speaker 2: But yeah, those stories don't have to end as quickly 991 00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:56,680 Speaker 2: and that would just be more fun. 992 00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:58,799 Speaker 3: The other thing that you had here was that the 993 00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,440 Speaker 3: games are too damn long, which you know, we agree 994 00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,920 Speaker 3: on that, but let's go let's go back to the 995 00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,880 Speaker 3: pods thing. So you had talked about one way to 996 00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:11,040 Speaker 3: help with scheduling is to scrap the divisional setup and 997 00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,200 Speaker 3: you propose pods. So for people who aren't familiar, Dan 998 00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,120 Speaker 3: and I are, But for people out there who aren't, 999 00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:18,680 Speaker 3: what do you mean by pods? 1000 00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,600 Speaker 1: How is the ball rolling? What did you mean by that? 1001 00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:26,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, what's funny is technically pods. It's not the right 1002 00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:28,799 Speaker 2: term to use, but it's just what we use, and so, 1003 00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:31,600 Speaker 2: you know whatever. But it originally stems from the Whack, 1004 00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,000 Speaker 2: the mid nineties Whack where they expanded to sixteen teams. 1005 00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:36,319 Speaker 2: They had four pods and you basically play your pod 1006 00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,480 Speaker 2: and somebody else's pod and Ryan Robin every year. That 1007 00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,399 Speaker 2: was the idea behind it, and it was pretty cool 1008 00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:45,400 Speaker 2: because at the end of the day, most teams there 1009 00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,920 Speaker 2: are few, like there are Tennessees out there that contradict this, 1010 00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:52,080 Speaker 2: but for the most part, most teams don't have to 1011 00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,960 Speaker 2: play more than about three teams each year, like just 1012 00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:58,040 Speaker 2: absolutely have to you know, we absolutely have to play 1013 00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:01,560 Speaker 2: our rivals kind of situation. And so if you were 1014 00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,720 Speaker 2: to take like the SEC and give everybody three permanent 1015 00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:10,320 Speaker 2: rivals again, like that's hard for Tennessee, it's hard for LSU, 1016 00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:12,640 Speaker 2: they've kind of got more than three, but for everybody else, 1017 00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:15,960 Speaker 2: it kind of makes sense. And that so that's three 1018 00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:20,000 Speaker 2: games a year. That leaves you ten other opponents each year, 1019 00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,120 Speaker 2: played five one year, five the next. Within four years, 1020 00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:25,759 Speaker 2: you've played everybody in your conference and around Robin. Like, 1021 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:27,840 Speaker 2: the only reason Missouri and LSC have played twice in 1022 00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:30,040 Speaker 2: the first decade that Missouri has been in the Big 1023 00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,040 Speaker 2: Twelve is because the schedules got weird last year and 1024 00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,040 Speaker 2: they added LSU at the last second. And that's the 1025 00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:37,200 Speaker 2: only reason I think they played like miss Last year 1026 00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,520 Speaker 2: was the first time the second time they played Mississippi State. 1027 00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,320 Speaker 2: I think they've only played Old miss once. I believe 1028 00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:44,720 Speaker 2: it is hard to feel like a conference. 1029 00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,520 Speaker 1: And A and M Georgia played for the first time 1030 00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:49,880 Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen since they became conference partners. 1031 00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and all you have to do is take away 1032 00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:56,600 Speaker 2: an annual Missouri Florida game or miss Georgia or whatever, 1033 00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,200 Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, everybody's rotating and it feels 1034 00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,160 Speaker 2: like a conference and you have a history because that 1035 00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:02,680 Speaker 2: was one of the things, Like the four years I 1036 00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,200 Speaker 2: was at Missouri and in undergrad, Missouri played all of 1037 00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:07,400 Speaker 2: its Big twelve rivals twice at least, you know, they 1038 00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:11,040 Speaker 2: played six of them twice, play the other five four times. 1039 00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:13,840 Speaker 2: Everyone you know, once a year, and it felt like 1040 00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,279 Speaker 2: you had a history with Baylor, in Texas Tech and 1041 00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,319 Speaker 2: A and M and all those other schools because you 1042 00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,359 Speaker 2: were still even if you weren't playing them every year, 1043 00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:23,680 Speaker 2: you were still playing them frequently. And it like that's 1044 00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,120 Speaker 2: all you have to do, Like if you have it 1045 00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,680 Speaker 2: works perfectly. The math works perfectly with a fourteen team 1046 00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:30,040 Speaker 2: conference that plays eight games like the SEC or ACC. 1047 00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:32,560 Speaker 2: It gets a little messier if you make it nine 1048 00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,160 Speaker 2: games and the rotations are a little weird or and 1049 00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:37,840 Speaker 2: all that, but it can obviously be done. And it 1050 00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,680 Speaker 2: just yeah, you you were connected to everybody, and as 1051 00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:43,040 Speaker 2: a Missouri fan, it this wouldn't help in Missouri at all. 1052 00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,120 Speaker 2: Now suddenly you're playing Alabama and LSU and Arkansas are 1053 00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:50,239 Speaker 2: not Arkansas Auburn more, but it would still just it 1054 00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:52,120 Speaker 2: would make you a part of the conference you're in, 1055 00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,719 Speaker 2: and it would it would feel like an actual union there. 1056 00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,920 Speaker 2: So that's just from that standpoint, I like it. But 1057 00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,439 Speaker 2: also now it does feel like balls rolling like the 1058 00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,960 Speaker 2: actual conference. Higher ups of like the ACC have talked 1059 00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:07,440 Speaker 2: about it a little bit, and it seems like, you know, 1060 00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,920 Speaker 2: when if we're entering a twelve team era, a twelve 1061 00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:15,960 Speaker 2: team playoff era, you kind of want. You don't want 1062 00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:21,600 Speaker 2: a random ACC Coastal champion beating Clemson knocking them out 1063 00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,319 Speaker 2: of like a top four seed, maybe not getting one 1064 00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,799 Speaker 2: of the playoff bids. Anyway, if they had only gone 1065 00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,280 Speaker 2: like seven and five and just kind of generally sprewing 1066 00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:33,440 Speaker 2: your conference by pulling an upset, they'll talk about forever. 1067 00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,719 Speaker 2: You don't really want that anymore. If you're the head 1068 00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,000 Speaker 2: of a conference, you'd rather have a situation where you 1069 00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,839 Speaker 2: got your permanent rivals, big rotation, top two teams make 1070 00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:46,320 Speaker 2: the playoffs, or the conference you're done. So it makes 1071 00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:50,040 Speaker 2: it's not necessarily what I had intended with my thought, 1072 00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,719 Speaker 2: but it is another reason for them to go down 1073 00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:55,560 Speaker 2: that road, and it seems like maybe there's progress in 1074 00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:56,120 Speaker 2: that regard. 1075 00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,440 Speaker 1: Is there any element to normalizing non conference portion of 1076 00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,960 Speaker 1: the schedule. Obviously, the NFL has their way where they 1077 00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,040 Speaker 1: have these cross divisional matchups that they do, like essentially 1078 00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:08,640 Speaker 1: home and homes with over a couple of years. I 1079 00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,520 Speaker 1: know you're a proponent of eight conference games across the board, 1080 00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,160 Speaker 1: and it works well with pods because eventually everybody plays 1081 00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:17,239 Speaker 1: each other over the course of years or a couple 1082 00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,959 Speaker 1: of years, two three years. But the non conference portion 1083 00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,880 Speaker 1: of the schedule, obviously, it's good for the sports health 1084 00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:25,600 Speaker 1: for FCS programs to get into the mix, and it's 1085 00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,239 Speaker 1: not the worst thing for teams to have a week 1086 00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:31,760 Speaker 1: to you know, sort of get the motion into the season. Whatever. 1087 00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:35,200 Speaker 1: But what is your dream scenario for the non conference 1088 00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,240 Speaker 1: portion of the schedule? Number of games, how the games 1089 00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,480 Speaker 1: are scheduled, how the game is you know, are their 1090 00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,400 Speaker 1: ping pong balls where just the PAC twelve draws the 1091 00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,360 Speaker 1: AAC and they're like, well, is Oregon gonna play Cincinnati? 1092 00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:48,680 Speaker 1: Are they going to play USF Like, is there is 1093 00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,279 Speaker 1: there an element that appeals to you from the non 1094 00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:52,160 Speaker 1: conference standpoint? 1095 00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:56,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like we've already passed this by but 1096 00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:59,319 Speaker 2: like the coolest thing about twenty twenties football season. One 1097 00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:02,279 Speaker 2: of the few things about twenty twenties football season was 1098 00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:04,800 Speaker 2: BYU and Coaster going, hey, you want to play on Saturday. 1099 00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:07,759 Speaker 2: You know it's Wednesday afternoon. You want to do this, Sure, 1100 00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:09,680 Speaker 2: we'll we've run a loss, and they did it, and 1101 00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:11,960 Speaker 2: it was like the I think I had the number 1102 00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:13,879 Speaker 2: three game of the year at the end of the year, 1103 00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:17,520 Speaker 2: and there was energy, there was just it was a 1104 00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:19,920 Speaker 2: fun matchup that we haven't seen. Like, there were just 1105 00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:23,920 Speaker 2: so many awesome things about it. And obviously, I mean, 1106 00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,400 Speaker 2: obviously you're when you're selling season tickets, you want to 1107 00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:29,200 Speaker 2: be able to tell your home crowd who they're playing, 1108 00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:31,080 Speaker 2: so you can't go too far down this road. But 1109 00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,520 Speaker 2: I just we everybody loved it, and I was hoping 1110 00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,680 Speaker 2: we could figure out a way to just introduce a 1111 00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:41,600 Speaker 2: little fewer Hey, Alabama and Boston College are going to 1112 00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:44,680 Speaker 2: play in twenty thirty four types of situations and soon 1113 00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:46,319 Speaker 2: as the season and we went right back to that, 1114 00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:50,080 Speaker 2: and it's it was, you know, it's it's kind of frustrating, 1115 00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:50,879 Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean. 1116 00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,080 Speaker 3: You're going to turn fifty three during that season. By 1117 00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:56,000 Speaker 3: the way, Thank you. I appreciate that. That math update. 1118 00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, yeah, that Doug Flute's got to be 1119 00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:05,680 Speaker 2: like seventy five, but like it. So that was, you know, 1120 00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:07,799 Speaker 2: in that commission or platform thing. The thing I talked 1121 00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:11,759 Speaker 2: about was the bracketbuster idea where basically, you know, go 1122 00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:13,759 Speaker 2: ahead and schedule games, but you you got to leave 1123 00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,840 Speaker 2: one day it open each year and about three weeks 1124 00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,279 Speaker 2: out or two weeks or even I mean even one week. 1125 00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:20,719 Speaker 2: Now we know we can. We know you can pull 1126 00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,120 Speaker 2: off a game in a week. You've got you know, 1127 00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:26,120 Speaker 2: whether you're playing home or away. But based on any 1128 00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:28,640 Speaker 2: number of different ways to separate teams out you yeah, 1129 00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:32,080 Speaker 2: you basically, depending on how your season is going, you 1130 00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,879 Speaker 2: are drawn an opponent that is having a similar level 1131 00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:39,040 Speaker 2: of season. So if you're a Cincinnati and or UCF 1132 00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:41,600 Speaker 2: in twenty seventeen, where you've got an awesome team that 1133 00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:45,719 Speaker 2: has nobody to play, you know, suddenly you're depending on 1134 00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:47,760 Speaker 2: your ranking. Suddenly, now you've got a home game against 1135 00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:50,239 Speaker 2: Georgia and you get to prove yourself completely. 1136 00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:54,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, oh my god, ping pong balls please, There would 1137 00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:57,319 Speaker 1: be that it would be an incredible ratings bonanza. Would 1138 00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,439 Speaker 1: the na Draft lottery. You got to get you got 1139 00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,000 Speaker 1: to get your boy. George Clavicle on the case out there, 1140 00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:05,319 Speaker 1: the Pact Love Day. Oh my god. If we just 1141 00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,880 Speaker 1: had that random show on God, I don't know when, 1142 00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,960 Speaker 1: it would be October first or Halloween or something like 1143 00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:14,240 Speaker 1: that for like the third to last week of the season. 1144 00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:17,879 Speaker 1: It would be a it would be a bonanza entertaining show. 1145 00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:19,879 Speaker 2: Oh my god, Like that would be all the best 1146 00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,359 Speaker 2: parts of Twitter too, like reacting to that, it would 1147 00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:25,160 Speaker 2: be it would be the draft lottery like Times thirty 1148 00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:25,600 Speaker 2: or something. 1149 00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:27,399 Speaker 1: You have the cameras in the bars, like. 1150 00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, that would be It would be great. 1151 00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,640 Speaker 2: And I just wish there was, like we've seen what 1152 00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:39,799 Speaker 2: flexibility can do. Is flexibility was forced on everybody last year, 1153 00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:43,200 Speaker 2: and granted everybody handled it poorly in August, but then 1154 00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:46,560 Speaker 2: in November we started to kind of adapt and figure 1155 00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:48,480 Speaker 2: things out. And I wish that would be part of 1156 00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:49,759 Speaker 2: an Appearently it's not going to be. 1157 00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:52,000 Speaker 1: No final question, and we'll bring it back to the 1158 00:56:52,000 --> 00:56:55,200 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one season. We are now in July, which 1159 00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:58,040 Speaker 1: means we now not only have previews, we have takes, 1160 00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:01,040 Speaker 1: we have sports radio, we have TV we have conversations 1161 00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:04,720 Speaker 1: around the twenty twenty one season. Are there conversations around 1162 00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,160 Speaker 1: teams in either direction where you're like, I'm sorry, you 1163 00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:11,120 Speaker 1: think what about this team or what is nobody going 1164 00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:14,560 Speaker 1: to mention this team in this conversation? Do you have 1165 00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:17,520 Speaker 1: those teams that are not like sleepers are overrated any 1166 00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:19,400 Speaker 1: language like that where you're just like, I don't know, 1167 00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,120 Speaker 1: I don't think the conversation might be a little bit 1168 00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:24,240 Speaker 1: misguided around in either direction. These teams. 1169 00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:26,960 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I let's use one just in there, like, 1170 00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:29,120 Speaker 2: I mean, if some people are taking the plunge and 1171 00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:31,240 Speaker 2: the side, you know what, they're back and others are 1172 00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:33,760 Speaker 2: so I can't really say that's like a conventional wisdom 1173 00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:35,680 Speaker 2: kind of thing, but that one's been kind of interesting. 1174 00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:38,600 Speaker 2: I mean, it's kind of hard to a degree because we, 1175 00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:41,200 Speaker 2: i mean, everybody kind of agrees, like we know five 1176 00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:45,040 Speaker 2: of the top six or so, So any of these conversations, 1177 00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:46,720 Speaker 2: it's going to be like, oh, really you think they're 1178 00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,000 Speaker 2: number twelve and that doesn't quite care to say kind 1179 00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:53,880 Speaker 2: of like wait necessarily, but I will say, based on 1180 00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:58,160 Speaker 2: the last year's sample, we're probably not taking Wisconsin and 1181 00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:02,560 Speaker 2: Penn State seriously enough, they both had super weird situations 1182 00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:07,200 Speaker 2: last year. You know, Wisconsin playing a small schedule, you know, 1183 00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:09,400 Speaker 2: looking great, then taking a bunch of weeks off and 1184 00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,840 Speaker 2: having a hugely rotating depth chart in all those things 1185 00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,120 Speaker 2: worse than a lot of other schools. Like on paper, 1186 00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,800 Speaker 2: like my numbers love Wisconsin because they're so reliable most 1187 00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:21,000 Speaker 2: of the time. But then also they return a lot 1188 00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:22,880 Speaker 2: of the guys who should have played more of a 1189 00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,640 Speaker 2: role last year but didn't. That just they seem to 1190 00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:29,400 Speaker 2: have a definite top ten potential. I'm not real sure 1191 00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:32,800 Speaker 2: we're thinking about that ten states. I mean, they got 1192 00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:36,160 Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator they probably wanted last year in Mike Yarsich, 1193 00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:39,200 Speaker 2: who scores forty points a game wherever he goes or 1194 00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:43,560 Speaker 2: thirty seven, and they've got at least two really good receivers, 1195 00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:46,360 Speaker 2: a veteran quarterback. We're not real sure what Clifford ceiling is, 1196 00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:50,040 Speaker 2: but he's probably got like top twenty QBR ceiling at 1197 00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:52,400 Speaker 2: the very least, and lots of good running backs. And 1198 00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:55,160 Speaker 2: their defense is always top twenty. So that seems like 1199 00:58:55,200 --> 00:59:02,280 Speaker 2: a pretty good recipe. Well, another one that we all 1200 00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,960 Speaker 2: we kind of have a handbreak for at all times 1201 00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:10,800 Speaker 2: is Miami like we along with like the same kind 1202 00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:12,920 Speaker 2: of like Texas vibe. I guess like, oh here we 1203 00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:15,240 Speaker 2: go again. We're picking Miami to do great things. They 1204 00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,120 Speaker 2: got a lot to offer this year, like more than 1205 00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:21,400 Speaker 2: they have and the only thing they lose from last 1206 00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,479 Speaker 2: year is basically the two defensive ends. But they always 1207 00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:25,240 Speaker 2: have great defensive ends, so if they have two more 1208 00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:27,640 Speaker 2: this year, then they don't really have a hole. And 1209 00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,400 Speaker 2: they've definitely got top ten potential, which they had last 1210 00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:32,760 Speaker 2: year until they completely ran out of gast the last 1211 00:59:32,760 --> 00:59:35,960 Speaker 2: two games. So those are some teams that were probably 1212 00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:38,800 Speaker 2: just not I'm not going to pretend any of them 1213 00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,320 Speaker 2: are like top three potential or anything, but those are 1214 00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,600 Speaker 2: three teams that probably are going to be better than 1215 00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:45,880 Speaker 2: we than our general assumptions. 1216 00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:51,480 Speaker 3: Think fair enough, alrighty Bill Connolly from ESPN, enjoy the 1217 00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:52,440 Speaker 3: rest of the Euros. 1218 00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:54,360 Speaker 1: You have to come back and talk soccer with me. 1219 00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:58,000 Speaker 1: Ok just give me that chance, give me. Okay, how 1220 00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:00,720 Speaker 1: about this? Who is your your number one tennis player 1221 01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:03,920 Speaker 1: under thirty? If we want to talk about. 1222 01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:06,920 Speaker 2: So the next gen? Yeah, the newest next gen? 1223 01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:09,880 Speaker 1: You at seats pass? I mean, team can't stay on 1224 01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:10,920 Speaker 1: the court, like who is right. 1225 01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:13,720 Speaker 2: Yeahs is the most well round and obviously you had 1226 01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:16,000 Speaker 2: a really weird month and and bout out at Wimbledon. 1227 01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:17,640 Speaker 2: I guess the guy who had already played like fifteen 1228 01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:21,800 Speaker 2: grass court matches. But Pas is going to be awesome. 1229 01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:25,640 Speaker 2: He's he's the closest thing to Federer of the next gen. 1230 01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,320 Speaker 2: Just hurt, wonderfully well rounded. And I did get to 1231 01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:30,920 Speaker 2: write about my boys, said court this week. 1232 01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:34,320 Speaker 1: Yep, I ask a soccer question. You can do that too. 1233 01:00:34,720 --> 01:00:35,360 Speaker 1: Oh no, I have. 1234 01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,000 Speaker 3: Too many soccer questions. So we're gonna bring Bill. We'll 1235 01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:38,960 Speaker 3: bring Bill back on. 1236 01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:42,360 Speaker 1: Well, you want a US you want a US men's team, 1237 01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:45,080 Speaker 1: women's team opinion? Do you want a euro's opinion? Tie? 1238 01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,360 Speaker 1: You got to give him coming out? You think it's 1239 01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:49,160 Speaker 1: in England. You think it's from England, don't. 1240 01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,480 Speaker 2: I think it's But it's more fun to say it's 1241 01:00:51,520 --> 01:00:51,800 Speaker 2: coming on. 1242 01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:53,720 Speaker 1: I have won a ton of money on the Euros. 1243 01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:56,080 Speaker 1: I told this to Dan. Really, yeah, we have to 1244 01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:56,800 Speaker 1: we'll bring you back. 1245 01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:02,760 Speaker 3: We need to talk about exclusively international soccer, exclusively internationally. 1246 01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:04,960 Speaker 1: Actually in our discord people are talking about it, so 1247 01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,080 Speaker 1: it would actually make for a good off topic show. 1248 01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:08,800 Speaker 1: I don't know whenever it is that you want to 1249 01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:09,920 Speaker 1: do that time. I don't even have to be on 1250 01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:10,960 Speaker 1: the show because I don't know it. 1251 01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:15,720 Speaker 3: Exclusively international soccer as it relates to the build up 1252 01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:17,000 Speaker 3: to the twenty twenty two World Cup. 1253 01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:18,600 Speaker 1: I have many thoughts Bill, many things. 1254 01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:22,400 Speaker 2: In that case, I will I will keep tamp down 1255 01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:26,760 Speaker 2: my RB Leipzig opinions. That'll be a different composition I 1256 01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:27,920 Speaker 2: can focus on Internationally. 1257 01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:29,880 Speaker 3: We can talk about that too, but we will bring 1258 01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:31,480 Speaker 3: you back. You and I have to talk soccer at 1259 01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:37,240 Speaker 3: the Boondesliga. Thoughts with Bill Connolly. Bill Connolly, how much 1260 01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:40,080 Speaker 3: money is Borushia Dortmann going to make? Okay, moving on 1261 01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,080 Speaker 3: to the end of the show, But first we need 1262 01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:46,240 Speaker 3: to thank you again Bill Connolly for your insight as always, 1263 01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:47,200 Speaker 3: we do appreciate it. 1264 01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:48,960 Speaker 1: And uh yeah, we got to talk soon. 1265 01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:56,360 Speaker 3: Absolutely all right again Bill Connolly, YESPNESPN dot com. Every 1266 01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:58,040 Speaker 3: time Bill is on, I feel like it's just a 1267 01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:00,560 Speaker 3: brain dump. I feel like we get so much information 1268 01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,480 Speaker 3: out of him. I never want to end the interview. 1269 01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,640 Speaker 3: We have time constraints, mind you, but never want to 1270 01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:10,480 Speaker 3: end that interview with him because he's just such a 1271 01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:12,760 Speaker 3: great source of college football information. 1272 01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:16,600 Speaker 1: Was I correct? And assuming that ARBI Leipzig is Bundesliga, it. 1273 01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:20,120 Speaker 3: Is Bundesliga, and I believe they are the American good club. 1274 01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:22,960 Speaker 3: They now have an American coach going into the twenty 1275 01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:23,880 Speaker 3: twenty one campaign. 1276 01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:29,120 Speaker 1: What do you know what RB is? Red Bull? Oh? 1277 01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:29,520 Speaker 2: Is it? 1278 01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:31,200 Speaker 1: I believe that. 1279 01:02:32,120 --> 01:02:33,880 Speaker 3: I don't know that for sure, but if I had 1280 01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:35,520 Speaker 3: to take a guess, I believe it's Red. 1281 01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:41,960 Speaker 1: Bull Rosinbaal Sport Leipzig, right, Red Bull informally Red bullsy Leipzig. 1282 01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:45,840 Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I mean, I can't ever understand, and 1283 01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:49,040 Speaker 1: it's probably because I'm a bit of a dumb dumb 1284 01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:52,960 Speaker 1: how people can really truly go deep in more than 1285 01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:55,480 Speaker 1: one sport. And you see a lot of people do 1286 01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:58,200 Speaker 1: a very poor job of it in like the big 1287 01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:03,320 Speaker 1: broad generalist sports media, but people that like legitimately are 1288 01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:06,560 Speaker 1: very good at covering multiple sports and sort of having 1289 01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:10,440 Speaker 1: informed opinions. I don't understand it at all. I'm so 1290 01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:11,240 Speaker 1: impressed with it. 1291 01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:17,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, Bill, his statistical view of the sports world is awesome. 1292 01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:20,680 Speaker 3: So it extends to yeah, things like soccer, it extends 1293 01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:23,520 Speaker 3: to things like tennis, which I know is a that's 1294 01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:24,400 Speaker 3: a sweet spot for you. 1295 01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:26,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, so. 1296 01:03:26,800 --> 01:03:29,280 Speaker 3: We always welcome him back to the show, and hopefully 1297 01:03:29,320 --> 01:03:31,080 Speaker 3: we'll have to have him on at some point real soon. 1298 01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:34,360 Speaker 1: We're coming up with something recurring for him. Hopefully we'll 1299 01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:37,120 Speaker 1: move into trouble, but yeah, there will be something recurring 1300 01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:39,680 Speaker 1: with Bill c. He aligns too perfectly with us. 1301 01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:43,760 Speaker 3: All right, Well, again, don't forget to stay tuned in 1302 01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:45,840 Speaker 3: over the course of the next weekend far beyond that, 1303 01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:48,320 Speaker 3: because we've got a lot of excitement as we build 1304 01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,920 Speaker 3: towards the college football season and get into previews and whatnot, 1305 01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:54,760 Speaker 3: So please do stay tuned on that. 1306 01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:57,560 Speaker 1: And we're ramping up. We're ramping up to three right 1307 01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:01,080 Speaker 1: and not too long here, that is episodes per week. 1308 01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:01,840 Speaker 1: That is correct. 1309 01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:04,160 Speaker 3: If I get within the next couple weeks, if I 1310 01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:08,880 Speaker 3: can peel back the curtain, just maybe the kimono, if 1311 01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:11,040 Speaker 3: you can peel back the kimono, that may be one 1312 01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:17,240 Speaker 3: of the things we discuss next week in Okay, be 1313 01:04:17,360 --> 01:04:21,040 Speaker 3: tuned on that front, but otherwise, please do head on 1314 01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:23,520 Speaker 3: out to all of our social media accounts. We do 1315 01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:28,919 Speaker 3: have a Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. We also have a newsletter. 1316 01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:30,800 Speaker 1: Which maybe we'll start ramping up at some point in 1317 01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:31,680 Speaker 1: the very near future. 1318 01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:35,240 Speaker 3: If you're going out to solidverbal dot com and look 1319 01:04:35,280 --> 01:04:38,120 Speaker 3: for the big yellow box, you can enter your email address. 1320 01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:41,040 Speaker 3: You can also go to newsletter dot solidverbal dot com 1321 01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:43,240 Speaker 3: and sign up there. But a lot of exciting stuff 1322 01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:48,560 Speaker 3: coming down the pike, Dan, That's all I got. 1323 01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:51,880 Speaker 1: Man, all I got. I am. I have not eaten today. 1324 01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:55,000 Speaker 1: It's two oh four Central time, so I need to 1325 01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:56,440 Speaker 1: find calories for. 1326 01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:59,920 Speaker 3: That guy over there, my good friend Andrewinstein. From myself, 1327 01:05:00,040 --> 01:05:02,240 Speaker 3: Hilda Brand. We will talk to you all in a 1328 01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:04,920 Speaker 3: few short days. In the meantime, stay soft, peace,