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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Monday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talking Matt.

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Speaker 1: We're here every morning, and I mean every morning. We

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Speaker 1: are here on bettingpros dot com, on YouTube for the

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Speaker 1: video and always where you get your audio podcast. Bet

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Speaker 1: MGM's sponsor ten dollars wager wins one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars any event. Use that promo code Juice one fifty,

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Speaker 1: ten dollars wins you one hundred and fifty bucks. Juice

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Speaker 1: one fifty for new users. New users, that is for

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Speaker 1: betmgm betmgm dot com. All right, so here's where we're

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Speaker 1: at today. I thought it might be fun to do

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Speaker 1: a quick little recap as we hit the midway point

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Speaker 1: of the NFL season, kind of where we are from

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Speaker 1: a win total perspective on some of the bets we

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Speaker 1: have made, and so I'm going to do that on

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Speaker 1: some of the bets that that I think are doing

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Speaker 1: pretty well. The recap for yesterday, it's a winning day.

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Speaker 1: It's a good day, full unit wagers. We win on

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, we went on the Patriots and we get

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Speaker 1: the Wong teaser, which now is seven and two on

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Speaker 1: the year for our Sunday Morning Wong teasers, which is great.

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Speaker 2: We get the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Wrong and the Rams wrong, and we go three and

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Speaker 1: one on the player props, including an even money bet

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Speaker 1: on Damien Harris to score at anytime touchdown for the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: and he came in and scored, so we get the

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Speaker 1: Waller prop over, we get the Jimmy Garoppolo prop over,

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Speaker 1: and DJ Moore did not catch over sixty six yards

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Speaker 1: for the Panthers, who got that wrong, So three and

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Speaker 1: one there, so up more than a half a unit

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Speaker 1: on the props, and we get ourselves up about almost

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Speaker 1: almost a unit for the full wagers, so.

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Speaker 2: Overall, officially not bad.

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Speaker 1: I go two and one on my personal play, so overall,

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Speaker 1: if the Rams had one in cover, that would have

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Speaker 1: been the best Sunday of the season for me.

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Speaker 2: It's not the second best Sunday for the season for me.

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Speaker 2: So good day.

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Speaker 1: Winning day always really fun when you capitalize on that. Okay,

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Speaker 1: today I've got a Monday night football same game. You

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Speaker 1: can probably guess where I'm going. It's gonna be very popular,

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Speaker 1: don't care. I think it's the only way to bet

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Speaker 1: the game. And I got two NBA plays to give

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Speaker 1: you for a half a unit each that I want

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Speaker 1: to talk about here in just one second. But first

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Speaker 1: and foremost, let's take a look at where some of

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Speaker 1: these teams are as we head into the second half

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Speaker 1: of the season. And let's start with the Titans from

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Speaker 1: last night. So, the Titans got a huge win on

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Speaker 1: the road against the Rams, and so many people are

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Speaker 1: on the Rams, including myself. It was extremely public, but

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Speaker 1: another underdog winning the game outright. It was a monster

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Speaker 1: story underdogs winning the game outright.

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Speaker 2: I mean the Bears.

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Speaker 1: You got almost like look out here, because the Bears

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Speaker 1: going into this game on Monday night, it's like Bear's

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Speaker 1: money line. If you want to talk about what what

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Speaker 1: yesterday was like, Bear's money line probably is a decent spot,

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Speaker 1: decent place to jump into it. But let's just go

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Speaker 1: through some of the wins that we've got wint. So now,

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Speaker 1: the Titans are six and two on the year, and

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Speaker 1: the Titans have played really well. They've won four games

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Speaker 1: in a row now for the Titans, and we have

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Speaker 1: over nine and a half wins for the Titans. So

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Speaker 1: looking at the Titans schedule right now. I mean we

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Speaker 1: should get there. It would be rather shocking if we don't.

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Speaker 1: They play the Saints, the Texans, at the Patriots, the Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: We need to find four more wins on this schedule.

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Speaker 1: The Texans twice, two wins, Jaguars three wins. Now we

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Speaker 1: need to win over the Saints, Steelers, Patriots, forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 1: or Dolphins. I think we get there. I think we're

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Speaker 1: getting ten wins. I feel pretty good about the Titans

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Speaker 1: cashing that one unit bet for US Titans to go

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Speaker 1: over their win total of nine and a half. Let's

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Speaker 1: look at the Raiders who lost yesterday. Raiders now five

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Speaker 1: and three. We need two more wins out of the

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Speaker 1: Raiders this year to go over the six and a

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Speaker 1: half that we bet.

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Speaker 2: For my favorite bet of.

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Speaker 1: The entire NFL season, We've got Chiefs next week on

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Speaker 1: Sunda Night Football. Bengals tough at the Cowboys, tough Washington

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Speaker 1: game they can win. At the Chiefs, tough at the Browns,

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Speaker 1: tough Broncos game, they can win, at the Colts a

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Speaker 1: game they can win, and home for the Chargers, a

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Speaker 1: game they can win. They're gonna have to take care

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Speaker 1: of business here against Washington and then steal one from

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Speaker 1: somebody else, Okay, And the hope is that the wheels

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Speaker 1: don't completely come off the wagon here now in the

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Speaker 1: wake of the Henry Ruggs thing.

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Speaker 2: But need two more wins.

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Speaker 1: For the Raiders and we get there and we cash

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Speaker 1: that bet the New Orleans Saints over nine and a

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Speaker 1: half wins for New Orleans. It's gonna be really hard

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Speaker 1: to get there without Jamis Winston. Okay, really hard. They

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Speaker 1: lose to the Falcons. They came all the way back.

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Speaker 1: They're five and three on the year. You know, they've

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Speaker 1: got the Titans on the road next week ouch at

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Speaker 1: the Eagles. Yeah, winnable game, but not with Trevor Simeon

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Speaker 1: home for the Bills, home for the Cowboys, at the Jets,

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Speaker 1: at the Bucks, home for the Dolphins, home for the Panthers,

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Speaker 1: at the Falcons. Can we get five more wins out

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Speaker 1: of the Saints.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna, you know, mark that down as kind of

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Speaker 1: an l I think that's gonna most likely be a

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Speaker 1: loss game another win total. I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a loss. Is the Steelers. They're four and three right now.

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Speaker 1: I think they win tonight against the Bears, they'll be

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Speaker 1: five and three. They have a game against the Lions

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Speaker 1: next week, a game they should win at the Chargers

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Speaker 1: at the Bengals, home for the Ravens, at the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: home for the Titans, at the Chiefs, home for the

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Speaker 1: Browns at the Ravens. Right, so, if they'll be five

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Speaker 1: and three the whole, then they'll be six and three

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Speaker 1: after the Lions.

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Speaker 2: We need them to fall apart, like straight up fall apart.

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Speaker 1: They can win two more games, and the schedule is

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Speaker 1: not easy, but we'll need Pittsburgh to really really cool

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Speaker 1: off big time if we're going to cash that win total.

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be pretty hard for us to

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Speaker 1: get there. So just look at a couple of them,

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Speaker 1: you know. Titans looks good, Raiders looks good. Saints do not,

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Speaker 1: Steelers do not. Falcon look good. I mean the Falcons

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Speaker 1: over seven and a half wins. That was one of

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Speaker 1: the more controversial ones. But the Falcons with that win,

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Speaker 1: they're four and four, and we need to find four

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Speaker 1: more wins out of the Titans.

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Speaker 2: All right, sorry, out of the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Rather they play the Cowboys, who all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: look pretty shaky on the road next week home for

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, tough, at the Jaguars game they should win,

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Speaker 1: home for the Bucks, tough, at the Panthers game, they

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Speaker 1: should win at the forty nine ers tough, Home for

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Speaker 1: the Lions game they should win at the Bills tough,

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Speaker 1: and then home for the Saints tough.

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Speaker 2: They got two wins.

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Speaker 1: I think they've got on that schedule to get themto six,

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Speaker 1: and then we need them to kind of catch a

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Speaker 1: couple of teams napping and win a couple of games

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Speaker 1: are not supposed to to get to eight, definitely gonna

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Speaker 1: be tough. Not saying that's going to be easy to

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Speaker 1: get over seven and a half wins on the Falcons,

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Speaker 1: but that will kind of make or break us here

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Speaker 1: on the futures. But halfway point, crazy things can happen.

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Speaker 1: Teams can get hot, teams can lose quarterbacks and whatnot.

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Speaker 1: So Saints may not be totally dead, you know, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: might fall apart, but those are as we hit this here.

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Speaker 1: We are at a you know, for our future ragers

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Speaker 1: halfway in where we're looking good onto not so great

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Speaker 1: on another and kind of a coin flip for the

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Speaker 1: Falcons that could decide whether we're profitable or not. Here

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Speaker 1: for our NFL win total futures here on the daily juice.

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Speaker 2: Okay, let's get right to it.

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Speaker 1: Here on a Monday night, we've got a seven point

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Speaker 1: line in a total thirty nine For Pittsburgh hosting the

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Speaker 1: Chicago Bears on the road. Chicago has only gone over

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Speaker 1: two times this season. They're two and six to the over.

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's even worse. They're one five and one to the over.

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Speaker 1: The only time they went over was at home against

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Speaker 1: Denver when it was a twenty seven nineteen final with

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Speaker 1: a total of forty. They pushed against Seattle in their

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Speaker 1: last home game twenty three to twenty, where the total

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Speaker 1: was forty three. It went under by eighteen points. Last

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Speaker 1: week on the road at Cleveland. For Chicago, they went

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Speaker 1: over week one against the Rams forty six points. It

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Speaker 1: was a thirty four to fourteen loss, and they went

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Speaker 1: over against the forty nine Ers thirty three twenty two,

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Speaker 1: a loss, going over by fifteen points, over by two points.

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Speaker 1: But in the meantime in the middle, every other game

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Speaker 1: went under for the Chicago Bears, and some of the

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Speaker 1: bitch went way under six six seventeen, three and a

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Speaker 1: half thirteen and seven and a half to the under.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's been a little bit closer.

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Speaker 1: Eighteen points a push one eight three and a half

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Speaker 1: and eight and a half to the under for point totals.

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Speaker 1: How far underneath Pittsburgh has gone for their point totals.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the Chicago offense, it has not

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Speaker 1: been impressive at all. And look, I think Justin Fields

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Speaker 1: could be a very good quarterback. But they're three and

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Speaker 1: five to the number. They have failed to cover their

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Speaker 1: last three games. But it's Monday night and we've seen

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Speaker 1: road teams, We've seen dogs play really well. Here Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: laying seven points, it feels too heavy for Pittsburgh laying.

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Speaker 1: They're three and four to the number themselves two and

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Speaker 1: three two out of less three games they have covered

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Speaker 1: against Denver and Cleveland. They did not cover on the

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Speaker 1: road at home against Seattle as five and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites they won by three. But that big win

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Speaker 1: over Cleveland last week was pretty impressive, and then the

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Speaker 1: win against Denver as one and a half point dogs, winning

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Speaker 1: it by eight. But this has not been a great

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Speaker 1: season for Pittsburgh offensively, like they're not scoring an othing

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Speaker 1: points like we mentioned, one, five and one to the total,

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Speaker 1: so they're not scoring a whole lot of points here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that makes seven feel pretty high. So again, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go back to a same game teaser, and this is gonna.

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Speaker 2: Be very popular. I think a bunch of people are

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Speaker 2: gonna do it.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna take Pittsburgh down to minus one, just

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Speaker 1: win the game, take the total from thirty nine up

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Speaker 1: to forty five, and take the under.

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Speaker 2: We tried this before and it burned me.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to it because if this game

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Speaker 1: goes over, I mean, okay, hold on, Honestly, last night

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Speaker 1: did go went under for the Rams in their game

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Speaker 1: against the Titans. So I'm hoping for a similar type

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Speaker 1: of low scoring, battling an out, type of an affair

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Speaker 1: running the ball out of ponds on both sides in Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: We're going Pittsburgh's.

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Speaker 1: Minus one and Chicago in the under forty five for

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Speaker 1: a six point same game teaser at minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: for one unit. That's my only play here on this game.

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Speaker 1: I'll have some anytime touchdown Hail Mary type stuff going

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Speaker 1: personally but officially that's the only play I want to

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Speaker 1: give out is the same game teaser Chicago Pittsburgh Steelers

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Speaker 1: MIUS one under forty five. All right, So to the

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Speaker 1: NBA we go, and there are two very intriguing games.

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Speaker 1: Miami Heat Miami Heat. They are starting a roadie, a

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Speaker 1: long road trip that's going to be I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be challenging for this Miami Heat team.

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Speaker 1: I don't there's any real way around it in terms

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Speaker 1: of looking at where they're what they're going to be

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Speaker 1: dealing with on the road. Here tonight, starting a road

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Speaker 1: trip against the Denver Nuggets, who have not been great.

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Speaker 1: This road trip is Denver Lakers, Clippers Jazz Thunder five

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Speaker 1: game roady here starting but game one of a road trip,

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Speaker 1: you normally play pretty well, Like sometimes when you're playing

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Speaker 1: the last game of a home standing you know you're

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Speaker 1: going to go on the road. Sometimes a team will

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Speaker 1: play distracted. But they just took on the Utah Jazz

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Speaker 1: at home on Saturday and they won the game one

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Speaker 1: eighteen to one fifteen. They're seven and two on the

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Speaker 1: year so far, and now they start this five game

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Speaker 1: road trip up against the Denver Nuggets, who have been

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Speaker 1: bad against the number. Seven and two straight up, but

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Speaker 1: seven and two against the spread for the Miami Heat

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Speaker 1: so far this year, and they covered that three point. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: they were one point dogs at home to Utah and

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Speaker 1: they won by three. On Saturday, they did not cover

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Speaker 1: against Boston. They were laying six and a half points

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Speaker 1: and they lost by seventeen. But before that they had

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Speaker 1: covered five straight games seven and two so far, and

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Speaker 1: on the road they're three and one against the spread

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Speaker 1: so far this year. On the other side, Denver has

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Speaker 1: not covered in their last three games, including their last

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Speaker 1: home game against Houston where they only won by one

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Speaker 1: point to the Rockets. Things are not going well right

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Speaker 1: now for the Denver Nuggets. They need Jamal Murray back.

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Speaker 1: Your kids are trying to do a lot, but they've

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Speaker 1: lost three games in a row against the number. They've

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Speaker 1: lost two out of three straight up and one in

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Speaker 1: three at home. Here against the number, the number for

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Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets, I'm gonna lay the hotter team here.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the one and a half points.

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Speaker 1: Give me Miami half a unit minus one and a

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Speaker 1: half for the Miami Heat tonight to go into Denver

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Speaker 1: to start this road trip. Off on a good note.

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Speaker 1: The think Miami is the better team here, playing better.

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Speaker 1: I think there's something really broken with the Denver Nuggets

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Speaker 1: right now, and maybe because the last year, you know,

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Speaker 1: all the hype and the attention, sometimes it's hard for

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Speaker 1: these teams to get going. Michael Porter Junior has been

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Speaker 1: bad for Denver so far, and they need him desperately

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Speaker 1: to have a big game and need him just to

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Speaker 1: play much better. I'm gonna lay the one and a

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Speaker 1: half with the Miami Heat here, Miami on the road

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Speaker 1: at Denver for a half a unit at minus one

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Speaker 1: ten and for the other half a unit, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go to the Golden State Warriors hosting the Atlanta Hawks. Now,

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Speaker 1: this number is two and a half that I took tonight,

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Speaker 1: so I'm hoping you guys are getting two and a

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Speaker 1: half because I want to go below three. Atlanta is desperate,

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Speaker 1: and I mean straight up desperate right now. The Hawks

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Speaker 1: are three and seven against the number. They've lost their

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Speaker 1: last three games, including a three and a half point Dogs.

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Speaker 1: They lost to Phoenix by four. They were catching one

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Speaker 1: and a half to Utah, they lost by eighteen. They

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Speaker 1: lost their four and a half Dogs to Brooklyn. They

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Speaker 1: lost by nine. I don't know who the Atlanta Hawks

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Speaker 1: ticked off, but the Atlantahawks schedule right now is brutal.

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Speaker 1: This is a good basketball team that's trying to find

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Speaker 1: its way.

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Speaker 2: But they're gonna try to find their way.

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Speaker 1: At with a four and six record, with their schedule

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Speaker 1: up against the teeth of the NBA. So here is

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Speaker 1: what they're going, what they're playing. This is the run

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Speaker 1: Brooklyn on the road home for Utah, at Phoenix, at

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Speaker 1: Golden State at Utah, at Denver, home for Milwaukee, home

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Speaker 1: for Orlando, home for Boston. Like that is an absolute

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Speaker 1: insane stretch for the Atlanta Hawks, who are four and six,

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Speaker 1: who have lost three games in a row straight up

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Speaker 1: and five of their last six games straight up. And

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Speaker 1: you know they're coming in desperate to take on the

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Speaker 1: Golden State Warriors, who are playing on the second end of.

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Speaker 2: A back to back.

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Speaker 1: But the Warriors did not have to play Steph Curry much.

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Speaker 1: Only twenty twenty seven minutes played for Steph Curry, just

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Speaker 1: thirty points for Draymond Green.

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Speaker 2: And this Warrior team right now is playing extremely well.

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Speaker 1: They are six and three against the numbers so far,

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Speaker 1: they've covered their last four games. Even though they barely

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Speaker 1: covered last night against Houston, they still covered. They covered

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Speaker 1: by forty one against New Orleans, they covered by twenty

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Speaker 1: two against Charlotte, they covered by twenty one.

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Speaker 2: Against Oklahoma City.

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Speaker 1: They are four to zero on this current home stand

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Speaker 1: against the number. And it's not all Steph Curry. And

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Speaker 1: this is the beautiful thing about this team right now

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Speaker 1: is that it's not just stef Curry won twenty one

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Speaker 1: oh seven the win last night against the Rockets, who

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Speaker 1: are now zero to seven away from home. But this

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Speaker 1: team is just doing some really impressive things, and they're scoring,

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Speaker 1: they're playing good defense, and and again just from a

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Speaker 1: minutes perspective, Curry plays twenty seven minutes, scores twenty points,

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Speaker 1: was a plus sixteen. Jordan Poole plays thirty minutes twenty

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Speaker 1: five points, was a plus three. Draymond Green plays twenty

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Speaker 1: two minutes, only six points. So they rested these guys

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Speaker 1: didn't need to play them, you know, big, big minutes

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Speaker 1: all the way into the fourth quarter, deep into the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and that I think is going to really

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Speaker 1: help them here against an Atlanta Hawks team that is

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Speaker 1: absolutely desperate.

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Speaker 2: Two and a half is an important number. I want

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Speaker 2: this under three.

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be an absolute barn

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Speaker 1: burner of a basketball game. I could see you going

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Speaker 1: to overtime. The Hawks are desperate.

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Speaker 2: To get a win.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think that the Hawks defensively right now

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Speaker 1: are good enough. And this Hawks team, I just I

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Speaker 1: feel for him because you got we're on the over

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Speaker 1: for the win total for the Hawks. I just don't

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Speaker 1: trust right now that this Hawks team is going to

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Speaker 1: be able to score enough to keep up.

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Speaker 2: And I don't like their defense.

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Speaker 1: And on the road right now, things have not gone

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Speaker 1: well for the Atlanta Hawks on the road.

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Speaker 2: They are on the road.

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Speaker 1: They are oh and six against the spread so far

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Speaker 1: this year on the road oh and six, three.

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Speaker 2: And two for the Warriors.

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Speaker 1: But they've won their last three games in a row,

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Speaker 1: all at home, actually now four games, so it's four

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Speaker 1: and two at home, four games in a row, four

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Speaker 1: and two at home for the Warriors, oh and six

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Speaker 1: on the road for the Atlanta Hawks. Again, that number

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Speaker 1: is going to change, right Eventually, they're going to win

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Speaker 1: a game and cover and they're gonna get that zero

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Speaker 1: off their win total. But I just off from an

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Speaker 1: ATS perspective, I just don't see it. Atlanta's giving up

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ten points per game right now. That

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Speaker 1: is not great. They're giving up fifty three point two

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Speaker 1: percent excuse me, effective field goal percentage, which is twenty

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Speaker 1: fourth in the league right now. If you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about three point shooting perspective, giving up thirty four

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Speaker 1: percent three point shooting percentage, that's seventeenth best in the league.

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Speaker 1: These are not good numbers to go on the road

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Speaker 1: against the Golden State Warriors, who, as you would expect,

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Speaker 1: our third best in the NBA. And three point percentage

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Speaker 1: with thirty eight point four percent.

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Speaker 2: Makes right now.

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Speaker 1: Even though Atlanta's defense at times has been okay, and

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Speaker 1: you know, there are certain stats that do pop up

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Speaker 1: and kind of make them go all right, they're doing

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Speaker 1: okay in certain defensive stats, but overall offensively they're okay,

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Speaker 1: middle of the pack. Defensively they're okay middle of the pack.

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Speaker 1: And the Warriors right now could be the best team

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Speaker 1: in the NBA. And I know people are like, wait, what, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at their stats. Their stats are crazy

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Speaker 1: right now with the way that they're playing, in particular

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Speaker 1: at home.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the two and a half points. I

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Speaker 2: want up below three.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the tw and a half points of

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Speaker 1: the Golden State Warriors here for a half a unit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so three plays to NBA one In the NFL same

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Speaker 1: game teaser Pittsburgh minus one under forty five on Monday

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Speaker 1: Night Football. We're taking the Golden State Warriors minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half at home against Atlanta and the Miami

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Speaker 1: Heat minus one and a half on the road against

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Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets. Coming up here tonight for NBA basketball

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Speaker 1: mis Matt parol To follow me on Twitter at sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt. I'll talk to you in the Discord channel

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot Com slash chat to get in link underneath

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Speaker 1: here on YouTube to get into the Discord channel. I

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Speaker 1: may add player props or something else going into the

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Speaker 1: day Today, Good Day Saturday, Good Day Sundays. Have a

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Speaker 1: good Monday. To wrap up the week. Here for the

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Speaker 1: Deli Juice Podcast minus Matt Paroltz on Twitter at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt. Every morning it's the Deli Juice Podcast. I

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Speaker 1: was being brought to you by bet MGM