1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: We've all got questions. Top of the pile. 11 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: The number one question that we all have after Saturday night, 12 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: how on earth did this happen? Joining us now is 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: Republican Congressman Mike Turner and Chair of the House Intelligence Committee. Congressman, 14 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 2: thank you for being with us this morning. Sir, I 15 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: understand you have a briefing with the FBI a little 16 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: bit later today. What are the questions you have for them? 17 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 3: Sir johnthun Will, certainly that is the first up question, 18 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 3: how could this ever happen? As we're learning more about 19 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 3: how these events unfolded, it becomes even more unexplainable. And 20 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 3: unbelievable that this individual would have had the ability to 21 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 3: pull this off by himself, that this vulnerability would have 22 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: been there at the event and then he would have 23 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 3: had access to it in the ability to execute in 24 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 3: a manner which put Donald Trump's life at risk. Thank god, 25 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 3: Donald Trump is alive and his iconic rise from the 26 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 3: stage to show America that he's alive. 27 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: And that his strength was shown. 28 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 3: That certainly plays a tremendous amount of impact on world 29 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 3: leaders to see the strength of Donald Trump. 30 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 4: Chairman. This isn't the first Secret Service security labs we've 31 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 4: seen in our country, and something we've been grappling with 32 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 4: all morning is this question of is it a resource 33 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 4: issue or is it a protocol issue? Do you have 34 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 4: an understanding? 35 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, those are two of the questions. 36 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 3: Right on the protocol issue, it also goes to why 37 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 3: is it that he was not shot until after he 38 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 3: was shooting, when we obviously know there were a number 39 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 3: of individuals who identified both his location and that he 40 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 3: had a weapon. Then, also on the issue of resources, 41 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,519 Speaker 3: why wasn't the perimeter larger, Why weren't there more people 42 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 3: that were there protecting for President Donald Trump? All of 43 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 3: those are questions were to get to. But the reality 44 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 3: is that in the end, this is something that's going 45 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: to land on somebody's desk as they're responsible, and we 46 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 3: want to find who that is and how these decisions 47 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,079 Speaker 3: were made, but also how this came about. Where this kid, 48 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 3: who seemingly did nothing in his life up to this 49 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 3: point that was extraordinary, was able to take advantage of 50 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 3: what was an obvious vulnerability, right. 51 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 4: And the distance less than four hundred and fifty feet 52 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 4: away from a former president. Congressman, your committee, what role 53 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 4: can that play in this investigation? 54 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 3: Well, certainly we'll be working with the Government Oversight Committee, 55 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 3: of which I'm a member of, the Judiciary Committee, and 56 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 3: the Intelligence Committee, even Homeland Security Committy. 57 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 1: This will go across several as it should. 58 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 3: This is going to be an unfolding investigation because it 59 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:10,119 Speaker 3: is going to to involve not only agencies, but individuals, 60 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 3: and certainly the circumstances of this shooter and how he ended. 61 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: Up on that roof. 62 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 2: Congressman, considering that we don't have the answers to these questions, 63 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 2: and considering the Republican National Convention is still going forward, 64 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 2: I have to ask you this, and I understand It's 65 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: a difficult question to answer, but how on earth can 66 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 2: we have any confidence that we have sufficient security an 67 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,679 Speaker 2: event like the one we are having this week when 68 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 2: we don't have the answers to the questions we all 69 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 2: have about Saturday evening. 70 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 5: Right. 71 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 3: Well, I certainly I've called for reassessment of the security 72 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 3: plans for both conventions, and I think that the perimeters 73 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 3: should be enlarged. I think we're just hearing from your 74 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 3: own reporter that in fact the perimeter is being in large. 75 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: That does make a difference the ef fact that you 76 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 3: could control the space, you can control access, that certainly 77 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: lessens over all the risk for PRESIDENTA. 78 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 6: If you've long served this country with an ion security, 79 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 6: even serving as the president on NATO at one point 80 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 6: for the US, As you look at this moment, how 81 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 6: do you judge it to its historical comparisons of fragility 82 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 6: and concern for this country? 83 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 3: Well, I think, first off, the call for unity is 84 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 3: absolutely real, and I think it's been one that has 85 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 3: been going on even before this event occurred, but it 86 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 3: certainly is crystallizing in this event. And right now you 87 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 3: have Biden who's looking to going in his convention where 88 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 3: his Party's not even sure they want him to be 89 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 3: the candidate. And Donald Trump going to his convention, where 90 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 3: his convention is going to be about why he should 91 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: be president the United States, why they grapple with whether 92 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: or not Biden shouldn't even be the candidate, and they're 93 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: going to be picking him to be the candidate because 94 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 3: of his strength, because of his commitment to this country. 95 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,679 Speaker 3: And also there's going to be a tremendous contrast between 96 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 3: Biden's failure on the border, Biden's failure on national security, 97 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 3: Biden's failure on the world stage. And of course we 98 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 3: all saw last night why his staff say that he 99 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 3: should not do anything after eight o'clock. In that speech 100 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 3: he gave, he was short of breath, hardly ability finishing sentence. 101 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 3: He misspoke, he misstated things, but overall he's not the 102 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 3: candidate of unity. He did not apologize, he took the 103 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 3: opportunity to campaign in the middle of the speech, and 104 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 3: he certainly didn't offer anybody anything who wasn't already for 105 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 3: Joe Biden. 106 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: And that's just a few chiman. 107 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 4: As you are the head of the Intel Committee, I 108 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 4: want to ask you about these blinking lights we've keep 109 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 4: hearing from the FBI director. He's for months, he's been 110 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 4: sounding the alarm that there are flashing lights when it 111 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 4: comes to potential terror attack or issues events at home 112 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 4: here domestically in the United States. Do you see the 113 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 4: same concerns? 114 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 3: Absolutely, we see the same intelligence. I've said repeatedly that 115 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 3: I agree with the Director. I I was very concerned 116 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 3: as we go into this final election season that there 117 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 3: are foreign nationals with terrorist ties in our country and 118 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 3: what that could mean for the security, both for our 119 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 3: conventions and for our candidates. 120 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: I think it's certainly a continuing threat. 121 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 3: And it goes right directly to Joe Biden's failure of 122 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 3: leadership and the fact that our border is open. 123 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: The Director has made it clear that the. 124 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 3: Intelligence indicates that individuals who are affiliated with ISIS and 125 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 3: international terrorist organizations have made their way across Biden's open border. 126 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 3: They're in the United States, and they pose a risk 127 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 3: to both Americans and certainly to our electoral process this year. 128 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 6: But to be clear, some of the threat is coming 129 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 6: from inside the house too. You look at the events 130 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 6: over the weekend, It's not just immigration, it's here, it's 131 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 6: domestic terrorism. That's what some of the reports also show Congressman, 132 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 6: so what needs to happen, what needs to change there? 133 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 3: Well, for some does that pails in comparison to organize 134 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 3: structure to terrorists who are located the United States, who 135 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 3: are communicating with outside terrorist groups and organizations who are 136 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 3: actively looking at ways in which to take to a carry. 137 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: Out terrorist acts. 138 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 3: And that is what the Director is saying, and that 139 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 3: those individuals are individuals that the Biden administration has led 140 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 3: across the border. The Director has said, so he's certainly 141 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 3: the intelligence indicates it, and that is the threat and 142 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: vulnerability that is a risk to our national security directly 143 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 3: from Biden's policies to the board. 144 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 6: Just to be clear, are you saying that domestic terrorism 145 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 6: is not a concern at this moment? 146 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: No, I didn't say that. 147 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 3: You try to diminish the fact that a chosen Biden 148 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 3: policy that allowed terrorists into our country who are actively 149 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 3: a threat threat to our country is you know, easily 150 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 3: comparable to an individual like this, this shooter. 151 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: Who found his way upon this roof. It's not. The 152 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: reality is is that that there is a You have the. 153 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 3: Director of the FBI running across the country telling everybody 154 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 3: that we have this strong threat because he's not getting 155 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,559 Speaker 3: anywhere with the administration. He's not getting the border closed, 156 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 3: he's not getting these people rounded up, he's not getting these. 157 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: People identified and arrested. 158 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 3: And that's why he's telling you because the administration isn't listening. 159 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 3: They're not recognizing the threat that they have placed this country. 160 00:07:59,360 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 7: Yet. 161 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 6: I want to be clear, I'm not attempting to put 162 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 6: words in your mouth at all. I'm only trying to 163 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 6: address both issues. And I hear you loud and clear 164 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 6: on this one issue. So tell me in twenty twenty 165 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 6: five from an administration, what do you need to see 166 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 6: to make it clear that we're not sleep walking through 167 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 6: threats like this? Again, I understand the foreign component what 168 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 6: you're saying loud and clear, But in terms of domestic issues, 169 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 6: how someone can get so close to a presidential nominee 170 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 6: to a foreign president again. 171 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: For people to here comparable? Right, suremparable? And we don't 172 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: know yet the story of how. 173 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 3: This kid got here, right, we don't know how this 174 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 3: shooter got on this roof. Now again, I'm very skeptical 175 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 3: that he ended up on this roof having done nothing 176 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 3: else in his life that is extraordinary, that he would 177 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 3: have been able to accomplish this on his own. 178 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: We'll have to see. 179 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: We'll have to see the circumstances that resulted in almost 180 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 3: Donald Trump being assassinated on the stage at a political rally. 181 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 3: That is what the investigation is going to be. And 182 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 3: we don't know the circumstances. 183 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 2: And hopefully we get some details as that investigation goes on. Congressman, 184 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 2: before you go, I want to talk about the VP 185 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 2: sweepstakes with you. I'm sure you've got some thoughts on 186 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 2: that and you can offer your opinion. Congressman, do you 187 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 2: have a preferred candidate? What would you expect now to 188 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: see in the vice president for Donald Trump? 189 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: I prefer the candidate that Donald Trump picks. 190 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 3: I think Donald Trump is going to do an excellent 191 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 3: job of putting together both his vice president and ultimately 192 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 3: his cabinet as he did last time. He's got a 193 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 3: great focus on what needs to be done to change 194 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 3: the direction of this country, to close the border, to 195 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 3: address this out of control spinning it's resulting in unbelievable inflation, 196 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 3: and also to reinstill our stature in the international community. 197 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: As a result of this failed foreign policy of the 198 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 1: Biden administration. 199 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 3: I think he's laser focused and I believe he's going 200 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 3: to pick a great team. 201 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 2: Congressman, Hopefully we can talk again soon, Congressman Might Turner, 202 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 2: thanks for making time for us on a busy, busy 203 00:09:53,679 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 2: morning for him, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee. 204 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs Right now, FIRMA in the pre market up 205 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 2: by a little more than one percent. Ken Leon a 206 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 2: CFRA joined us now for more. So Ken, I can 207 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 2: go through the names again. We've heard from JP City, Wells, Fargo, Goldman. 208 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 2: Just now, what's your takeaway this morning? 209 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 5: Well, I think investors begin to pivot and move away 210 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,959 Speaker 5: from Friday's concerns, which were the consumer or rates or 211 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 5: interest income to today it's really about the markets. It's 212 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 5: about investment banking, and also Goldman's ability really to be 213 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 5: top in the league table. So what we see with 214 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 5: these results are obviously a revenue earning speed, but we 215 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 5: have resilient businesses that are also in position to gain 216 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 5: wallet share, the asset and wealth management business. David Solomon's 217 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 5: going to speak about the increasing alternative investments over three 218 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 5: hundred billion, which possibly gives Goldman's stocks a higher multiple. 219 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 5: That whole segment in investment banking, we haven't spoken enough 220 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 5: last Friday, but today we are seeing improvements in equity 221 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 5: underwriting and also debt underwriting was a three year high 222 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 5: going for the second quarter. Lastly, all the m and A, 223 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 5: while it's okay, it's likely to do better in the 224 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 5: second half of this year because most of the financial 225 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 5: sponsors those are the private equity firms have been on 226 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 5: the sidelines and they need to exit in order to 227 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 5: get their LP investors into new flagship ship funds. 228 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: So I think think about it. 229 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 5: John, A year ago we were talking about Solomon David 230 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 5: Solomon in terms of its strategy consumer retail. Does this 231 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 5: really make sense? And they've cleaned that up and now 232 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 5: their position really to be a leader as they should 233 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 5: be in the major businesses they serve. 234 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 6: So can The number is giving you a rosy picture, 235 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 6: and the market's somewhat reflecting that, but not to a 236 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 6: huge degree. We're not even up one percent at this point, 237 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 6: and I can't help but wonder if it's a miss 238 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 6: for investment banking, specifically advisory fees just rising seven percent. 239 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 6: What do you make of that? Because this had been 240 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 6: the cash cow for so many of the banks we've 241 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 6: already heard from before. 242 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, so the street analysts have a target price of 243 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,079 Speaker 5: four seven that you were at four to eighty eight. 244 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 5: The stock has done great. I think there's more room 245 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 5: on the outside because it's still trades as a significant 246 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 5: discount to the S and P five hundred. Additionally, to 247 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 5: my point, the M and A that we have seen 248 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 5: so far this year have been corporates. It have not 249 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 5: been the financial sponsors, which have one point trillion dollars 250 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 5: that has to exit either in a transaction like M 251 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 5: and A or an IPO. And we're going to hear 252 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 5: that from Blackstone later this week in Kkar next week. 253 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 5: So Goldman is in a great position where they can 254 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 5: be an intermediary to execute those trades. But now it's 255 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 5: book of businessiness in the area that's going to get 256 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 5: this stock a higher multiple. Asset and Wealth Management has 257 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 5: over three hundred trillion in alternative investments. 258 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: That's where the market's going. 259 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 7: It's private credit. 260 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 5: It's in these very attractive areas that these banks can 261 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 5: take market share in some cases from traditional. 262 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 6: Banks, and Goldman has raised a lot of money in 263 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 6: that regard that recent twenty billion private credit fund. Out 264 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 6: of this world but Ken, does that mean that this 265 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 6: is going to be an earning season of two banks, 266 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 6: the banks who have that private asset management arm and 267 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 6: those that are exposed to the consumer. 268 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 1: I think the. 269 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 5: Analysts in the street, you know, the conversation last week 270 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 5: was should we be in large banks are small? And 271 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 5: clearly the diversified large banks are wedding. But within those 272 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 5: those that have a more concentration into the areas that 273 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 5: you've just mentioned versus worries about consumer delinquencies and lower 274 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 5: net interest income. The Bank of Americas of the Cities 275 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 5: and Wells Farga. We saw it with Wells Farire last week. 276 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 5: Point for me is that after the FED stress tests 277 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 5: in June, Goldman's increasing their divid at nine percent for 278 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 5: the third quarter. They still have some missions with the 279 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 5: convoluted formula of the stress test, so they're going back 280 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 5: to the. 281 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 2: Shad Ken, we've talked a lot about tech stocks and 282 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 2: this big runaway rally. I don't think we've talked enough 283 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: about the performance on the banks. We tried to do 284 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: that more over the last week. You mentioned Bank for America. 285 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 2: They're reporting the next twenty four hours or so, they're 286 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 2: up twenty four percent, so far this year, Goldman's up 287 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 2: twenty four close to twenty five percent higher, City still 288 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 2: up by twenty five percentage points. That's the bank story. 289 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 2: I want to go through the broader story with you 290 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 2: this morning, Ken as well. Let's just go through two 291 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 2: asset classes. Start with equities and I'll turn to bonds 292 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 2: as well. Equity futures up again this morning, but the 293 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 2: our performance is on the small caps. The Russell up 294 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 2: another one percentage point, and Ken, if you look at 295 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: the bond market, Danny did a great job at this 296 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 2: earlier this morning. Just thinking about the political considerations here, 297 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 2: the so called Trump trade, steeper yield curve, high yields 298 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 2: at the long end of the curve, the ten year 299 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 2: up by four basis points, the thirty year up by 300 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 2: Ken after the weekend's event tragic events, almost a whole 301 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 2: lot worse than it could have been. Can I just 302 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 2: wonder how you process in the political considerations when it 303 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 2: comes to markets. 304 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 5: Well, I think the markets are still listening to the 305 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 5: Fed in jaypalse comments last week, and I think strategists 306 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 5: will be raising their target prices even at their fifty 307 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 5: six hundred. 308 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: The markets are resilient. 309 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 5: We see S and P five hundred earnings going this 310 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 5: year up eight or nine percent to fifteen percent next year. 311 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 5: And if that's true we have that kind of healthy 312 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 5: economy next year, that will be a great platform in 313 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 5: terms of equity investing relative to technology, which has done 314 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 5: the best. Financial sector is moving a little bit below 315 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 5: the S and P five hundred, but the large banks 316 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 5: are seventeen percent up this year, right where the S 317 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 5: and P five hundred, But they trade at a significant 318 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 5: discount on valuation. In the case of the five hundred 319 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 5: at twenty times, banks are at ten times. So we 320 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 5: might have a little bit more room for the banks. 321 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 5: And I like the dispersion or breadth for the market. 322 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 5: That's a healthy sign. 323 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 4: Ken If you think the markets are just focused on J. Powell, 324 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 4: are they looking through then all of this politics and 325 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 4: how do you explain that a morning like today. 326 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 5: So the probability is of a rate cut in September, 327 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 5: of increase, I think most are now looking for two 328 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 5: cuts and what that could mean. You know, it's always 329 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 5: a two edged sword with banks because you play into 330 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 5: the mechanics of net interest income rates go down, you 331 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 5: get narrow spreads, net interest margins tightened this is what 332 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 5: bank ansts will say. But if you do that in 333 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 5: the backdrop, when you look at the flywheels of the 334 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 5: stronger economy, volumes are higher and the loan balances offset 335 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 5: even if you have lower rates. So we're not going 336 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 5: to zero rate. So we've got a pretty good picture 337 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 5: here for financials. Protect some of the large banks, the 338 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 5: worries of really as you go downstream where you have 339 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 5: smaller banks for sixty five to seventy five percent of 340 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:09,719 Speaker 5: your revenue, it's not interesting. 341 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 2: Come hey, ken going to catch up with you, sir Kenley, 342 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 2: I'm their FCFIRA on the financial Former President Donald Trump 343 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 2: touching down in Milwaukee out of the Republican National Convention, 344 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 2: just two days after an assassination attempt at a rally 345 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania. Trump looking to unify the Republican Party, telling 346 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 2: the Washington Examiner he's rewriting his speech and he's also 347 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 2: calling up former presidential candidate Nikki Haley to attend the event. 348 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 2: Joining us now is Jim Gilmot, the former Republican governor 349 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 2: of Virginia. Governor, wonderful to have you with us this morning. 350 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 2: Thank you, sir. We came within an inch of you 351 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 2: and I having a very very different conversation this morning. Governor, 352 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 2: how do you expect the R and C to shift 353 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 2: this week? 354 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 8: Well, first of all, of the Orange he of course won't. 355 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 8: The primaries have already nominated overwhelmingly President Trump to be 356 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 8: the Republican nominee. So the convention is really about sending 357 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 8: a message to the people of the United States about 358 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 8: what kind of party we are, and what kind of 359 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 8: people that we're going to be, and what kind of 360 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 8: platform and we're going to offer. That's very different from 361 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 8: the rhetoric that we've been seeing over the last few weeks. 362 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 8: President Biden went on camera and said last night, well, 363 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 8: we need to stop all of this talk. But President 364 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 8: Biden doesn't have the credibility to say that. It is 365 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 8: he who has been ramping up this extreme language. President 366 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 8: Biden has been doing that. I mean, it's a statement 367 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 8: last week that it didn't look good for a chief executive, 368 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,479 Speaker 8: for the president of the United States to be talking 369 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 8: like this, But I'd really underestimated it. What he was 370 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 8: really doing was inviting the assassination and inviting I think 371 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 8: other assassins may be out there right now. When he 372 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 8: uses language like the President Trump is a menace that 373 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 8: the Republican Party will is a threat to democracy. These 374 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 8: things are nonsense, but they're dangerous. They're dangerous kind of rhetoric, 375 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 8: and most importantly, it's dangerous because it's coming from a 376 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 8: president of the United States. 377 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: Who has imminent credibility. 378 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 8: When he says these things, he should stop right now 379 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 8: and stop saying these kinds of things. 380 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 4: Governor, what does the former president need to say to 381 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 4: make sure that he has a message one of unity 382 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 4: and overcoming the toxic political environment that this nation faces. 383 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,199 Speaker 8: Well, I believe he's going to talk about the issues 384 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 8: that face the country. 385 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 1: I think he's going to be. 386 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 8: Talking about the unity that the Republican Party feels about 387 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 8: the direction of the nation. I think that you'll find 388 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 8: Republicans up and down the line, and people particularly represented 389 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 8: within that convention itself speaking about the issues of inflation, 390 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:56,120 Speaker 8: which the President Biden absolutely caused by his big giant 391 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 8: programs at the beginning of his administration when he threw 392 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 8: all this money out there into the community. When he 393 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 8: did that, he increased inflation. There's no doubt about that. 394 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 8: The border has turned out to be a principal issue 395 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 8: of the Democrats have just simply not addressed that issue. 396 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 8: I remind you that only when President Trump began his 397 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 8: campaign years ago did the issue even begin to be discussed. 398 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 7: I think there will be that, and then crime in 399 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 7: the streets. 400 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 8: I remind you that Antifa and organizations like that were 401 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 8: running rampant in the streets right And when you then 402 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 8: add this kind of strident, hysterical language coming from the 403 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 8: chief executive of the United States, you've created a toxic atmosphere. 404 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 4: Governor, what about his vice presidential pick? Is there a 405 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 4: name that exudes more unity than others? 406 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 1: I don't think I want. 407 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 8: To try at my place to suggest a name. The 408 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 8: names have been widely discuss What I think I would 409 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 8: prefer to do is to remind your viewers of the 410 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 8: absolute importance of the pick at this particular time time. 411 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: Look at where we are here. A President Biden made 412 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: a pick. 413 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 8: He said explicitly that he was going to make that 414 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 8: pick based upon race and gender. That is the new 415 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 8: program of the Democratic Party, race and gender. And he said, 416 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 8: I'm going to name a black woman, no matter what. 417 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 8: I have no objection to a black woman being president 418 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,719 Speaker 8: or vice president, but to name the person based on 419 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 8: that rips away the previous plan, which is to name 420 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 8: somebody who can be president of the United States. I 421 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 8: think that right now there's a consensus the Vice President 422 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:32,640 Speaker 8: Harris probably should. 423 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: Not play that role. 424 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 7: So there we are. 425 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 8: So what this teaches us now is that we really 426 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 8: at this point have to pick somebody who if there 427 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 8: is an assassination or a tragedy like that, the person 428 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 8: can actually be the president of the United States. I 429 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 8: think that President Trump has several names that he can 430 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 8: pick from, and I hope that he's wise in his choice. 431 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 2: Is it fair to say that Senator j. Defunce wouldn't 432 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:56,360 Speaker 2: be won based on that covenant? 433 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 8: I think the Senator Vance is a new senator from Ohio. 434 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 8: He's primarily known for writing his book, which I have 435 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 8: read carefully, and a United States senator is always in 436 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 8: the national spotlight. 437 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 7: There are a lot of other people who might be 438 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 7: picked as well. 439 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 2: Of course, we're all familiar with the names. One name that, 440 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 2: of course we're very familiar with is NICKI Hayley, Governor. 441 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 2: There was a phone call that took place Saturday night. 442 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 2: I just wonder how important that phone call was to 443 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 2: someone like your South that would like to see this 444 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,479 Speaker 2: party unite behind the one candidate. A phone call between 445 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 2: the former president Donald Trump and Nicki Hayde South Niki 446 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 2: Heidi will now appay reportedly at the convention this week. 447 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: How important was that development for you? 448 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 8: Sat at the conclusion of the South Carolina primary. I 449 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 8: organized a group of about a dozen prominent conservatives and 450 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 8: sent a letter to Nikki Haley. I'm not sure she 451 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 8: ever even saw it, but in that letter, we said 452 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 8: this is the time to get out and to endorse 453 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 8: President Trump and. 454 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,200 Speaker 1: To create some unity. She did not do that. Instead, 455 00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 1: she stayed in. 456 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 8: He became basically the repository of anti Trump votes. 457 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 1: And there's a result of that. 458 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 7: She stayed in I think too long. 459 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 8: However, President Trump is exuding some leadership here and an 460 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 8: effort to actually unite the Republican Party by asking her 461 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 8: to speak, and that I think is a gesture of 462 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 8: unity that there's going to be the theme of the 463 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:24,639 Speaker 8: Republican National Convention. 464 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,679 Speaker 4: Governor. She also is saying that she wants her delegates, 465 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 4: She's releasing them. She wants them to vote for the 466 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:36,159 Speaker 4: former president. She represents half your party, does she not? 467 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 4: Isn't she still a voice that many in your party 468 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 4: look to. So shouldn't she be welcomed in instead of 469 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 4: forced out? 470 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 8: I think she should be welcomed in. I think that 471 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 8: everybody that ran against the president President Trump should be 472 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 8: welcomed in. I think you should look to the primary 473 00:23:55,760 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 8: numbers and during the last several primaries where Governor Haley 474 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 8: was in the race and you could see the numbers 475 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 8: of votes she was getting. I'm not sure that anybody 476 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 8: at this point represents half of our party. I think 477 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 8: the President Trump represents virtually all of our party, and 478 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 8: that's the primary results we're showing the Governor. 479 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 2: I appreciate your time this morning, sir, Thanks for being 480 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 2: with us. Jim Gilmore there, the former Virginia governor. Former 481 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump expected to announce his pick for vice 482 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 2: president at the R and C this week. Trump said 483 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 2: to address the convention on Thursday, with his VP pick 484 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 2: expected to be announced well before then. Joining us now 485 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 2: after the tragic events at the weekend, I'm pleased to 486 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 2: say his Ambassador John Bolton, a former national security advisor 487 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 2: and former ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador John Bolden, 488 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 2: thank you, sir for being with us once again. It's 489 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 2: good to catch up with you. So I want to 490 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 2: lean on your experience. You've been to events with the 491 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 2: former president Donald from You've seen the degree of security 492 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 2: that's provided. How surprised we you that something like this 493 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 2: could happen Saturday evening? 494 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:10,959 Speaker 7: Well, it was obviously very surprising. 495 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: You know. 496 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 7: There's been a lot of commentary on what went wrong, 497 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 7: what the mistakes were made. I think it was right 498 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 7: for President Biden to say he's going to set up 499 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 7: an independent review. You know, none of us are experts 500 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 7: just because we watched it on television. I've been a 501 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 7: protect tee. I still am for various reasons, but that 502 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 7: doesn't make me an expert on peripheral control and things 503 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 7: like that. So I think we're fortunate that Trump was 504 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 7: only wounded. It's a tragedy that one of the spectators 505 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 7: was killed. But we need to do the review of 506 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 7: this in a calm way. I think do it quickly 507 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 7: as well, because there are already conspiracy theories about what 508 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 7: happened on Saturday that I think are loony tunes. But 509 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,200 Speaker 7: I don't think they're going to go away, and we 510 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 7: have an independent objective review Ambassador. 511 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 4: We're going to be starting the RNC. It's kicking off 512 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 4: right after this assassination attempt. What kind of message do 513 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 4: you think the former president is going to bring to 514 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 4: the rn C, because already in an interview with The 515 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 4: Washington Examiner, he says he's rewriting his entire speech. 516 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 7: Well, he probably believed that when he said it. Whether 517 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 7: it turns out to be true is anybody's guests. Certainly, 518 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 7: the mood of the country I think is such that 519 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 7: it would be the right thing to do to try 520 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,959 Speaker 7: and calm partisan tempers down, and that's what he may 521 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 7: well do. It would also be to his electoral advantage. 522 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 7: I think he's the image of defiance that he gave 523 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 7: when he was shot, and what he said since then 524 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 7: puts him in a very good position just to be 525 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:55,120 Speaker 7: coldly analytical about it, and it would be I think 526 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 7: in his interest to have a message of conciliation. Whether 527 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 7: he's able to do that, I don't know. But if 528 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 7: you focus the argument on what's best for Donald Trump, 529 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 7: I think that is the answer, and that may be 530 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 7: why he does. 531 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 4: You've said in the past you think the highest priority 532 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 4: for his VP pick is absolute loyalty to him, the man, 533 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 4: Donald Trump. Do you think following these events and the 534 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 4: fact that you said, you know, in cold analysis, what's 535 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,919 Speaker 4: best for him is to talk about unity, maybe uniting 536 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 4: the party in the country. Would it be to pick 537 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 4: someone more towards the center. 538 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 7: Well, Trump doesn't have a philosophy, he doesn't really do policy, 539 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 7: So for him, there is no left, right or center. 540 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,360 Speaker 7: There's only Donald Trump at the center of the universe. 541 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 7: I think at this point it is still possible any 542 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 7: of the names that have been mentioned can be picked. 543 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 7: I don't think he's settled on a name a week ago. 544 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 7: I don't think it's changed since Saturday. I think this 545 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 7: is a constant matter reevaluation for him up until the 546 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 7: last minute. I always used to say that with Trump, 547 00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 7: nothing is final until it's final, and then maybe not 548 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 7: even the ambassador. 549 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 6: One of the historical correlate Larry's A lot of people 550 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 6: have used for this as nineteen eighty one an attempted 551 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,159 Speaker 6: assassination on Ronald Reagan. His daughter wrote an op ed 552 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 6: in The New York Times over the weekend saying that 553 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,360 Speaker 6: her father had believed that she'd been saved for God 554 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,880 Speaker 6: for a reason, and that was to end the Cold War. 555 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 6: This feeling of emboldenment of foreign policy do you think 556 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 6: Trump will feel that same sense that he now has 557 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 6: a mandate for certain policies that he wants to push 558 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 6: through more forcefully should he end up being the president. 559 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,439 Speaker 7: Well, I don't think we can say for sure. I mean, 560 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,960 Speaker 7: it's obviously a shocking event to be at a political rally, 561 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 7: to be shot at, to be wounded, to be in 562 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 7: danger for some period of time, that it has to 563 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 7: have an effect on anybody. But Trump has a remarkable 564 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 7: gyroscope that although he has a short attention span for 565 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 7: many things, he has a fixed attention span on himself. 566 00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 7: And I think that using this attempt on his life 567 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 7: as a way of proving his martyrdom and the victim 568 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 7: narrative that he has so successfully used politically, I think 569 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 7: he will use now. Whether that translates into specific action 570 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 7: if he's elected, I think is harder to say. But 571 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 7: will he use it politically to maximize his options once elected? 572 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: Absolutely that of political martyrdom. 573 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 6: Ambassador Bolton, you're describing something that seems like it could 574 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 6: fan the flames of division within this country. How concerned 575 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 6: are you about that that this is a start of 576 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 6: an era that's been bubbling back in the surface for 577 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 6: so long that it brings it to a boiling point. 578 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 7: Now, Look, we've had boiling points in this country. One 579 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 7: was called the Civil War. We're nowhere close to that rhetoric. 580 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 7: To the contrary, notwithstanding, I think Trump could cause a 581 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 7: lot of damage if he's reelected. I've been saying that 582 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 7: for several years now. I do not think he is 583 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 7: an existential threat to our democracy, and I think it's 584 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 7: in fact harmful to say that. That's the kind of 585 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 7: rhetoric I think we could do without. I think Trump 586 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 7: focuses on what he wants to do, not on grand 587 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 7: historical themes, and I think his focus at the moment 588 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 7: is very much on how to use the upcoming convention 589 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 7: to maximize the chances who'll win in November. 590 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 2: Ambassador, you've questioned his fitness for office. You've clearly just 591 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 2: drawn a distinction between doing that and questioning whether he 592 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 2: is an extensional risk to democracy. I want to understand 593 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 2: his potential to unite this party. You are a Republican, 594 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 2: You've worked with Donald Trump, you worked with Bush, you 595 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 2: worked in the ranking presidency as well. What would it take, 596 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 2: on Massador, for Donald Trump to get you behind him 597 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 2: and unite this party? Is that even possible. 598 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 7: No, because I do think Trump is not fit to 599 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 7: be president. It's I don't wish ill to anybody, certainly 600 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 7: not to the innocent spectators who were killed and gravely wounded. 601 00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 7: Were a Donald Trump for what he was put through, 602 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 7: But that episode doesn't change my fundamental view of him. 603 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 7: Maybe maybe he'll have a damascene conversion. That's always possible. 604 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 7: To redemption is a reality. It can happen, but as 605 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 7: of now, I don't see that that's going to change anything. 606 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 7: I do think this event, I mean, I'm just being 607 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 7: cold blooded here. This event will politically benefit Donald Trump. 608 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 7: And we may look back at the debate, the presidential debate, 609 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 7: and now the events of Saturday and say that this 610 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 7: was the moment when Biden's campaign trajectory went into a 611 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 7: nosedd from which it never escaped. 612 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 4: If you don't think he's fit to be president, is 613 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 4: there a VP pick that would assuage your concerns? 614 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 7: No, because we might still get four years of Donald Trump, 615 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 7: and I worry and I don't believe. I don't believe 616 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,480 Speaker 7: the facts have changed about the concern that personal loyalty 617 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 7: to Trump, not loyalty to the country, not loyalty to 618 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 7: the Constitution, loyalty to a man who told Mike Pence 619 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 7: to violate his own office on January the sixth, twenty 620 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 7: twenty one. That will remain Trump's primary objective. So we'll 621 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 7: see who it is. But I worry that whoever that 622 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 7: person turns out to be, they'll have given the wrong 623 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 7: answer to that question. 624 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 2: Ambassaday, you have a deep understanding of foreign policy and 625 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:22,520 Speaker 2: international security, a long, long amount of experience on those issues. 626 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,720 Speaker 2: Can we finish on that? Ambassador? How do you think 627 00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 2: the adversary is The enemies of this country will be 628 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 2: viewing the developments of the last couple of weeks, not 629 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,240 Speaker 2: just the last weekend, but for the issues the sitting 630 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 2: president is facing as well. Ambassador, how are you thinking 631 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 2: about that at the moment? 632 00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 7: Well, divisions within the American body politic are a tonic 633 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 7: for foreign adversaries, and I think they're watching this whole 634 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 7: process very closely. They know that the United States has 635 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 7: a fixed amount of bandwidth at any given time. We've 636 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 7: got a war in Ukraine, we've got war in the 637 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 7: Middle East, We've got a very divisive political season underway. 638 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:05,960 Speaker 7: Adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, North Korea are undoubtedly thinking themselves, 639 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 7: are there things we can do right now to take 640 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 7: advantage of this disarray? They'll follow it through the campaign season, 641 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 7: and I think that could be a very vulnerable time, 642 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 7: not necessarily for the United States directly, but for friends 643 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 7: and allies around the world. 644 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 2: Is there a part of the world that you'll more 645 00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 2: consent PAP scenario and you're more consent than others? 646 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 7: Well, I think the one area that we don't have 647 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 7: an actual conflict at the moment is the Indo Pacific 648 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 7: periphery around China. We've been concerned about Taiwan, the South 649 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 7: China Seed, China's land borders with Vietnam India. I think 650 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 7: if you're looking for a place where a conflict could 651 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 7: break out before November, it would be along that periphery. 652 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 2: I'm passidor I appreciate your time this morning. Hopefully we 653 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 2: can do this again soon, Ambassador Jim Bolton there on 654 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 2: the future of this particular presidency. This is the Bloomberg 655 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:03,720 Speaker 2: Sevenans podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. 656 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday 657 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 2: mornings from six am to nine am. Eastern, Subscribe to 658 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 659 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,880 Speaker 2: and as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg 660 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 2: Business app.