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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing out job spectator.

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Speaker 2: I'm setting up to cash.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 4: this is the ultimate kaban you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Happy howadays, and welcome to the Week sixteen Action Network

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Speaker 4: NFL Betting Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon. This is

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Speaker 4: your week sixteen preview. I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 4: Action Network Kywig and the Prime Minister Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? We both had a pretty rough week

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Speaker 4: last week. How are you holding up a good?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I was.

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Speaker 2: It was both a poorly capped week and an unlucky week.

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Speaker 2: So at oh to three on my Sunday six pack

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Speaker 2: picks last week.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 2: My only win on Sunday was the Jets, which at

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Speaker 2: least was easy, but it was bookended. My week was

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Speaker 2: book ended by losing the Raiders Chargers under first total

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Speaker 2: ever to lose on a second score in overtime in

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Speaker 2: NFL history, So that was fun. And then I had

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Speaker 2: the Patriots tease, you gotta be kidding me, like, kick

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Speaker 2: the fucking field goal, Bill, You're down ten, you have

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Speaker 2: the worst offense in the NFL, and you're just gonna

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Speaker 2: let Newton hike it and then just get sacked and

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Speaker 2: that's it. Meanwhile, I had Kansas City against Miami two

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Speaker 2: weeks before Miami kicks that field goal. You saw tenant.

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Speaker 2: Everyone kicks the field goal there, ridiculous, and then he

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Speaker 2: gives some nonsensical answer to his press conference, so that sucked.

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Speaker 2: And then I had the Bengals team total under and

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Speaker 2: the Steeler just aside to give them twenty four points

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Speaker 2: on turnover. Like it was so some poorly cap games

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Speaker 2: I didn't. It wasn't a heavy volume week for me, luckily,

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Speaker 2: and Week fifteen I said it last week. It's always

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Speaker 2: one of the toughest weeks for me. I feel like

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Speaker 2: my edges bottom out. But like I also said last week,

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Speaker 2: a Week sixteen and Week seventeen, I usually love because

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of narratives overreactions, must win scenarios that

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Speaker 2: provide some value, and I do think there's some good

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Speaker 2: spots this weekend, so it's get to work.

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Speaker 4: I agree. I felt like I miscapped some games. Obviously

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Speaker 4: the Eagles, you know, that was that was tough. That

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Speaker 4: was by half point. But I was on Pittsburgh and

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Speaker 4: in that game, I just didn't think they would, you know,

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Speaker 4: come out that poorly a third straight game, So yeah,

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Speaker 4: it was it was rough. I did not expect the

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Speaker 4: Rams to have a meltdown. I know you were on

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Speaker 4: the Jets, but I didn't see that much of a

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Speaker 4: letdown coming. I even bet them live and they couldn't

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Speaker 4: even they got the touchdown overturned. So yeah, it was

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Speaker 4: not It was not a fun week, but we keep

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Speaker 4: it pushing. We're gonna cap the Christmas game and then

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Speaker 4: the rest of the games will be included in the

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Speaker 4: six pack. Before we kick things off, three very quick reminders.

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Speaker 4: Number One, if you plan a bet on the NFL

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Speaker 4: this season and you still have not downloaded the free

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Speaker 4: award winning Action Network at what are you doing? It's

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Speaker 4: got betting tools analysis for me Stucky in the whole

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Speaker 4: Action Network team, and it lets you track every bet

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Speaker 4: that you make. Number Two, if you want a chance

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Speaker 4: at a three Vegas vacation, don't forget to enter our

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Speaker 4: free custom weekly DFS contest, the Action Pods Tournament of

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Speaker 4: Champions presented by bet MGM. Ten spots in our wild

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Speaker 4: Card Weekend Grand Finale are still up for grabs, so

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Speaker 4: follow the link and it's episode description and join for

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Speaker 4: free today and number three a quick programming note about

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Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast in the coming weeks. Don't worry,

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Speaker 4: Stucky and I. We're continuing our NFL betting episodes every

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Speaker 4: Thursday until the end of the season through the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: If you're looking to bet on the NBA on Christmas Day,

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Speaker 4: check out our Christmas NBA episode with Matt Moore, Justin

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Speaker 4: Fann and Raheem Palmer, three of the best guys doing

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Speaker 4: it in the NBA. That's out now. And finally, between

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Speaker 4: now and New Year's Eve, my guy Stucky Colin Wilson,

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Speaker 4: they'll be delivering their traditional college football bowl game betting previews,

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Speaker 4: breaking down how to bet every single bowl game on

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Speaker 4: your holiday game win calendar. So keep an eye out

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Speaker 4: for those and thank you for listening. And before I

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Speaker 4: actually do want to give a shout out to Matthew

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Speaker 4: Friedman and Sean Corner because well, I did have a

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Speaker 4: bad week capping me and Friedman finished one and two

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Speaker 4: in the Fantasy pros Fantasy accuracy for week fifteen. Corner

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Speaker 4: was in the top ten as well, So shout out

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Speaker 4: to those guys. Check out the Fantasy Flex podcast which

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Speaker 4: is out now. If you major fantasy championship, good luck

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Speaker 4: with that. But let's get in to some Christmas Day football.

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Speaker 4: You not fine? Me? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: You a good fellow. What day is today?

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Speaker 5: Today?

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Speaker 6: What's Christmas Day? Of course Christmas Day?

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Speaker 2: I have a mystery and we have the.

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Speaker 4: Saints hosting the Minnesota Vikings. The spread is seven, the

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Speaker 4: totals fifty and a half. Drew Brees did not look

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Speaker 4: quite healthy last week, one of his worst completion percentage

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Speaker 4: games that I can remember in recent memory. Stuck worre

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Speaker 4: your initial thoughts on the Vikes at the Saints.

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Speaker 2: Revenge game for the Saints. If you recall the Vikings

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Speaker 2: one in the playoffs, they're down in New Orleans last year?

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Speaker 4: Like what revenge really from? You know? Was it too

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Speaker 4: to the last three postseasons? I think the Vikings women.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think that the Saints will be fired

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Speaker 2: up for this one. The problem is was a lot

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Speaker 2: of injuries that the Saints. You have to worry about

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Speaker 2: the offensive line, a wide receiver, some of the defensive

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Speaker 2: side of the ball breeze. He started to look a

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Speaker 2: little better towards the end of that game at least,

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Speaker 2: but it might take him some time to kind of

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Speaker 2: shake some of the rust off. I think that the

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Speaker 2: Saints are a good teaser piece, a good money line

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Speaker 2: parla piece. The Vikings are kind of in free fall

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Speaker 2: mode here, and there's seasons pretty much over now. Can't

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Speaker 2: dance with their rooie corners playing really well of late.

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Speaker 2: It's worth mentioning, but the Vikings just haven't been good,

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Speaker 2: I mean ever since that loss to Dallas. So the

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Speaker 2: number I make it around seven, but have to adjust

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Speaker 2: based on the final injury reports. I do think the

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Speaker 2: Saints find a way to win here. They're not dead

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Speaker 2: for a one seed if you're a Saints fan. The

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Speaker 2: Saints are one back of the Packers, but the Packers

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Speaker 2: did beat the Saints, so the Saints have to pass

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Speaker 2: them in the standings. Packers could lose to the Titans,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about that game, and then they go to

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Speaker 2: the Bears, so the Saints still have something to play

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Speaker 2: for and you obviously want the highest seed you can get,

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Speaker 2: so a lot of it's going to depend on injuries.

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Speaker 2: I do think the Saints find a way. I think

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Speaker 2: it's a good money line piece, a good teas piece

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Speaker 2: if you want something to start off your weekend. With

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Speaker 2: the Vikings are six and eight, they still have a chance,

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Speaker 2: but I mean it's like very very very very very

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Speaker 2: small chance. They're six and eight on the year, a

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Speaker 2: huge loss to the Bears last week. By the way,

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Speaker 2: the Bears, if the Bears win beat the Jags and

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals lose to the forty nine ers, the Bears

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Speaker 2: would actually jump the Cardinals into that final spot. But

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Speaker 2: they basically the Vikings basically need to get to eight

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Speaker 2: and eight and hope that everyone else with eight winns

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Speaker 2: gets eight and eight and they have to win the tiebreaker.

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Speaker 2: It's not going to happen, but they're not completely eliminated.

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Speaker 2: They also have some injuries too, so a lot of

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Speaker 2: injuries to keep track of on this game. But I

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Speaker 2: think the Saints pull it out.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I'll just give some of the injuries as we

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Speaker 4: record this Wednesday, Guys, with two straight dnps, remember they

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Speaker 4: practice on Tuesday. Practice again Wednesday because the game is

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Speaker 4: on Friday. Linebacker Todd Davis, fullback CJ. Ham with a

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Speaker 4: quad which which could be big. He's an underrated part

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Speaker 4: of that offense because you're also probably going to miss

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Speaker 4: Kyle Rudolph still out with that foot injury. Didn't practice

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Speaker 4: as we record this Wednesday. Alexander Madison the backup running

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Speaker 4: back in the concussion protocol all linebacker Eric Kendricks with

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Speaker 4: a calf didn't practice the first two days. Uh So,

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Speaker 4: some some key injuries for the Vits and then the Saints.

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Speaker 4: As you mentioned Stuck, it's the receiving corps that could

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Speaker 4: be a little thing. Remember no Michael Thomas on IR,

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Speaker 4: Deontae Harris also on IR, so Emmanuel Sander is really

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Speaker 4: the only healthy receiver. Trey Quand Smith picked up an

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Speaker 4: ankle injury. He's been playing almost every snap. He started

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Speaker 4: the week with two straight d nps and uh they

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Speaker 4: did activate Marquez Callaway but unclear if he is going

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Speaker 4: to return this week. So that I mean you could

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Speaker 4: you could be looking at Juwan Johnson and Tommy Lee Lewis,

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Speaker 4: you know, playing significant snaps at the wide receiver position

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Speaker 4: for New Orleans. So depending on that final injury report.

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Speaker 4: I think this could be a sneaky undergame, especially with uh,

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Speaker 4: you know, C J. Hamm and and some of those

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Speaker 4: guys out for potentially out from Minnesota. Remember they New

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Speaker 4: Orleans does still have a top five defense in terms

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Speaker 4: of d v o A, so that's probably where I'm

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Speaker 4: looking the most. I have it at seven as well

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Speaker 4: as far as the spread, so I don't think there

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Speaker 4: will be any value either way, you know, even if

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Speaker 4: it moves a half point over under that the current number.

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Speaker 4: So that's a Christmas Day game. And speaking of Christmas,

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Speaker 4: Let's crack open Saturday six.

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Speaker 6: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack, and.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder this week, as we do for the

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Speaker 4: end of the season, we'll be including the Saturday games

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Speaker 4: in the Sunday six pack. Three Saturday games we have

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Speaker 4: Bucks Lions at one pm Eastern on Saturday, Niners Cardinals

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Speaker 4: at or thirty Eastern, and then Dolphins Raiders at eight

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Speaker 4: fifteen Eastern on Saturday. And the only game other than

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Speaker 4: the Christmas game that we are not choosing from is

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Speaker 4: Bill's Patriots. It's stuck in Colin will break down on

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Speaker 4: the next pod. I'll start it off first pick You're up.

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Speaker 4: You're still up nine. I didn't didn't take advantage, man,

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Speaker 4: I had a golden opportunity, but just a rough week

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Speaker 4: for both of us.

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Speaker 2: Last year of this week, I think you picked up

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Speaker 2: four points because I would owe for Week fifteen and

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Speaker 2: just always sh Man. Yeah, only had one and it

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Speaker 2: was my total go figure with the Patriots.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, rough week, which try to rebound. I'll start

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Speaker 4: it off with the first pick of the week, sixteen

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Speaker 4: Sunday six pack. I am going with the Los Angeles

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Speaker 4: Rams plus one and a half at the Seattle Seahawks stuck.

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Speaker 4: You've talked about it, We've talked about it on the pod.

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Speaker 4: The Rams matchup well with the Seattle Seahawks. If you

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Speaker 4: go back over the last couple of years in the

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Speaker 4: Shottenheimer era with Pete Carrolls, since twenty eighteen, we had

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Speaker 4: Rams thirty three thirty one, Rams thirty six thirty one,

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Speaker 4: Seahawks thirty to twenty nine last season in the first matchup,

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Speaker 4: and then the Rams beat him twenty eight to twelve

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Speaker 4: in the second matchup, and then.

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Speaker 2: Win that first matchup.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yep, exactly. And then and then in this this year,

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Speaker 4: Rams twenty four to sixteen game was a little more

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Speaker 4: convincing than that, I think, but just an excellent defensive

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Speaker 4: performance and that when started, it really kind of kicked

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Speaker 4: off Seattle's uh kind of offensive downturn in over the

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Speaker 4: second half stretch run of the season. So those last

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Speaker 4: five meetings, the Seahawks have not beaten the Rams by

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Speaker 4: more than a point, so essentially, uh, you know, if

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Speaker 4: they wouldn't have covered this number in any of the

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Speaker 4: last five, McVeigh always is going to have I think

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Speaker 4: good game plans against the Rams. I like what Brandon

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Speaker 4: Staley is doing, but really this is you know, a

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Speaker 4: bylaw on the Rams. You know, coming off that embarrassing

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Speaker 4: loss to the Jets, I think they will still be

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Speaker 4: fired up because all of a sudden now you have

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Speaker 4: the Rams still having to do work for the postseason,

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Speaker 4: whereas the Seahawks they got their clinch last week with

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Speaker 4: a narrow win against the football team. So I like

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Speaker 4: the matchup. And then you know they usually gets his

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Speaker 4: team up for these spots on the road after a loss.

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Speaker 4: In his tenure with the Rams, eight and one against

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Speaker 4: the spread, so just a great bounce back spot. You

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Speaker 4: look at what the Rams do well, Jayalen Ramsey, that

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Speaker 4: secondary they can cover. That helps a lot because you

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Speaker 4: have to slow down DK Metcalf and Tyra Lockett. That's

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Speaker 4: the key. The Rams also have Aaron Donald obviously, who's

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Speaker 4: going to you know, create problems for that Seattle offensive line.

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Speaker 4: And we've seen the Seahawks struggle. We've seen him struggle

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Speaker 4: now pretty much since that Rams game. You had the

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Speaker 4: just twenty points against Washington, one of the better defenses

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Speaker 4: in the league. You had kind of a slow game

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Speaker 4: even in that Arizona win twenty eight twenty one, you

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Speaker 4: had the upset loss to the Giants where the Seahawks

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Speaker 4: manage to score only twelve points in that one. So

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Speaker 4: teams that can play you know, solid defense and solid

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Speaker 4: defense and game plan, well, that seems to have been

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Speaker 4: the seahawks ryptonite. Only twenty three against the Eagles. So

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Speaker 4: to start the year, the Seahawks scored twenty seven or

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Speaker 4: more in every single game. Of the first eight, they

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Speaker 4: scored thirty or more and seven of the first eight.

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Speaker 4: Since then, they've played six games. They've scored sixteen, twenty eight,

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Speaker 4: twenty three, twelve, forty and twenty. So they've only scored

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Speaker 4: you know, one of those big, you know, thirty plus

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Speaker 4: point games once that came against the Jets, and they've

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Speaker 4: been held to twenty three or fewer points in four

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Speaker 4: of their last six. And this Rams team, we know

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Speaker 4: it's one of the best defenses in the National Football

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Speaker 4: League in terms of DVOA. The Rams are currently number four,

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Speaker 4: their number three if you look at weighted defensive d

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Speaker 4: which essentially awaits recent games a little bit more heavily,

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Speaker 4: they're playing nineteen point nine percent better in terms of

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Speaker 4: expected points versus the league average that schedule adjusted. Their

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Speaker 4: number four against the pass, their number seven against the run.

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Speaker 4: Just an excellent defense. That and a great bounce back

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Speaker 4: spot for the Rams. So give me the Rams plus

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Speaker 4: one and a half at Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the matchup and I agree it's a

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Speaker 2: great by low spot. You should get the Rems best

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Speaker 2: ef for Timson. I mean, this game is going to

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Speaker 2: decide the division. One of the reasons that I was

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Speaker 2: on the Jets last week that game pretty much meant

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Speaker 2: nothing to the Rams. They already beat the Seahawks. They're

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Speaker 2: one back, so if they win this game, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it meant something. But basically, now they win this game

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Speaker 2: and then they win there. For now they win the division.

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Speaker 2: If Seattle wins this week, Seattle clinches the division. This

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Speaker 2: game has probably some of the probably I think the

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Speaker 2: biggest playoff implications of any this week. Some are going

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Speaker 2: to carry over in the next week, but this could

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Speaker 2: clinch the division or all of a sudden Seattle is

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Speaker 2: going to be on the road if the Rams winning

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Speaker 2: and the Rams winning Week seventeen, so really important game.

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, the Rams should bounce back. They do

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Speaker 2: match up well, but I make the line one so

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Speaker 2: I don't see a ton of value. But I don't

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Speaker 2: disagree with the matchup and the spot, and I think

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Speaker 2: that they can get a ton of pressure up the

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Speaker 2: middle as well and just disrupt everything that Seattle and

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Speaker 2: Russ wants to do, which is what happened in that

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Speaker 2: first game. But if you can get one and a half,

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Speaker 2: which is out there right now at at MGM. Also

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Speaker 2: a great tease piece, which is what I used the

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Speaker 2: Rams with as well. We know Seattle doesn't really win

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Speaker 2: by more than one possession and this should be a

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Speaker 2: close game. I like some of the matchup, evengers for

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Speaker 2: the Rams that you alluded to, but perfect teaser piece.

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Speaker 3: I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I

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Speaker 3: want to make sure you know about the locked on

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Speaker 3: podcast network locked On as a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 3: favorite team.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 4: You are locked out of the Dallas matterge.

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Speaker 2: Well came everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

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Speaker 4: Let's go.

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Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick and the second overall of the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I am going to go with the

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Speaker 2: let's let's get ugly here, Let's go with the Pittsburgh Steelers,

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Speaker 2: the team that nobody wants to bet right now. The

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers at BETMGM right now, two point underdogs Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: plus two at home against Indianapolis. Look, I we you

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Speaker 2: were driving the bus. The Steelers team was a fraud, overrated,

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Speaker 2: flawed at eleven and zero, they had no explosedness. They

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Speaker 2: couldn't run the ball. The offense was just yeah, and

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Speaker 2: they were playing They played seven backup quarterbacks too in

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Speaker 2: fourteen games. The defense is obviously great, but there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of things not like about this Pittsford team. But

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Speaker 2: everyone was talking about undefeated season, super Bowl, blah blah blah,

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Speaker 2: and now no one wants the better of everyone's saying,

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Speaker 2: are they gonna win another game? They're not gonna win

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Speaker 2: a playoff game. The teams shouldn't be in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: It's one eighty. I've bet the Steelers this year straight up,

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Speaker 2: zero times, zero times of the year. Now it's time.

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Speaker 2: The market has gone completely the other way on the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: It's time to buy them. It's time to buy low

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Speaker 2: after that embarrassing loss to Cincinnati. If you're wondering, Mike,

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Speaker 2: this is your classic Mike Tomlin spot. I mean, if

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Speaker 2: you want to look at teams as underdogs playing teams

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Speaker 2: that are above five hundred interactions Lab Data Bay since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and three, Mike tom win the most profitableast

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Speaker 2: twenty four to nine to one against the spread as

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Speaker 2: an underdog against winning teams. This is your raw Ross

356
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Speaker 2: spot us against the world. Everyone says we suck. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that there's much different, anything different with the Steelers,

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Speaker 2: Like they're playing a little worse. But I knew that

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Speaker 2: this offense had huge issues, and I knew that there

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Speaker 2: was some regression coming in the turnover department, and the

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Speaker 2: defense has a couple injuries. But this offense is what

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Speaker 2: it is. This defense is what it is. The Bengals game,

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Speaker 2: they were getting blown out. I mean they had three

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Speaker 2: turnovers in their own territory. The Bengals still only had

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty yards through three quarters. That's cool

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Speaker 2: or Jets on the Bengals. But this is a Colts

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Speaker 2: team that I'm also not a believer. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: this line was the look at them is Pittsburgh minus

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Speaker 2: three and then you have that loss and now you're

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Speaker 2: getting two to five points that it's a massive swing.

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Speaker 2: Steelers plus two at home. I mean we're basically saying

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Speaker 2: to the Jet, to the Colts, I have about three

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Speaker 2: plus three, three and a half points better than average.

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Speaker 2: We're basically saying, like the Steelers now are an average team.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you say home field is worth one ish,

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Speaker 2: I mean that's crazy. I mean they were they all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, people went from Super Bowl and now

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Speaker 2: they're just dead average. This is still a really good defense,

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Speaker 2: This is still a great spot and it's still Colts

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Speaker 2: team that I have questions about their offenses didn't meh.

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Speaker 2: And if you look by a few different advanced metrics,

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Speaker 2: the Colts have faced the third easiest schedule of past

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Speaker 2: defenses in the past thirty years, they've fat overall. If

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Speaker 2: you look at DBA, they've faced the thirty second ranked

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Speaker 2: schedule as far as difficulty of defenses. So their schedule

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Speaker 2: has been extremely easy and the offense doesn't done much.

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Speaker 2: Their offensive line is man, the running game is man.

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Speaker 2: It's just an average offensive. The defense has been sliding,

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Speaker 2: sliding since a really hot start. So I think this

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Speaker 2: is a great spot, a great Tomlin spot. You're also

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Speaker 2: outdoors and the cold against the Dome team Steelers. Look.

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Speaker 2: I mean, let me paint a little picture. Twenty twelve,

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Speaker 2: the Ravens. My Ravens lost three games in a row

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Speaker 2: weeks thirteen, fourteen to fifteen. They got trucked at home.

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Speaker 2: I was at the game week fifteen to the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: The market was selling them, Joe Flaccau, This Ravens team stinks.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 2: The next week at home, they're playing the Giants, who

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Speaker 2: were also playing for a playoff spot. They've Giants won

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl year before. Giants needed will win to

401
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Speaker 2: go to get to the playoffs. This is week sixteen.

402
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Speaker 2: The look head line was like Ravens minus one, Ravens

403
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Speaker 2: get truck the Giants minus two and a half minus three.

404
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 2: Sound familiar. Ravens win by twenty Ravens don't lose again

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Speaker 2: that year, win the super Bowl. So I'm not saying

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Speaker 2: that the Steelers are going to win the super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: but these things happen. They've lost three games in a row.

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Speaker 2: The market is completely bottomed out on them. Teams are

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Speaker 2: never as bad or never usually never as bad or

410
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Speaker 2: never as good. Issues feel, So yeah, give me the

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Speaker 2: Steelers with I still make them a slight favorite. You're

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Speaker 2: not downgraded them after the last week, but too much

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Speaker 2: value to pass up here A great teaser piece too, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 4: You know, we did kind of point out early on

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Speaker 4: when the Steelers are still kind of riding that high

417
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Speaker 4: street that hey, the offense was struggling and they have

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Speaker 4: I mean, it doesn't get any worse than losing to

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Speaker 4: the Bengals by double digits and on a nationally televised game.

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Speaker 4: On on the most recent game. You know that we

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Speaker 4: have of the week still until you know, we get

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Speaker 4: to this Friday. Uh, you know Friday Saturday games. I

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Speaker 4: think that the you know, the market just hasn't it's

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Speaker 4: kind of overweighting it. It's recency bias. The Pittsburgh offense

425
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: is going to struggle, but you know, by no means

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Speaker 4: is this offense good. And you know they're going to

427
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Speaker 4: like at this point, we this is really what they

428
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 4: feel they have to do, Like they are going to

429
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 4: throw a ton of short passes. They're not going to

430
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Speaker 4: run the ball very much or very well. But I agree,

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Speaker 4: you know the Colts. You have kind of that same

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Speaker 4: situation with with Rivers where you just like the Steelers

433
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 4: can turn it over a ton and lose to a

434
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 4: team like the Bengals. Philip Rivers is always liable to

435
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 4: turn the ball over. Member he's still playing through that

436
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 4: painful toe injury. Both of these teams have faced the

437
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 4: the easiest schedules of opposing defenses, and the Steelers also

438
00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 4: have faced the second easiest schedule of opposing offenses. So, so, uh,

439
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 4: wondering real quick your thoughts on the the total on

440
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 4: this game. I'm thinking it actually there actually may be

441
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 4: some value on the on the under. But you kind

442
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 4: of did hit on like the Coast defense hasn't been

443
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 4: quite as good, but there's still number five in waight

444
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 4: to d v A A. Any thoughts on on the

445
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 4: total real quick?

446
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean no, I mean I think that it's

447
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: it's about right. The steel The one one could concern

448
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: out there with the Steelers their defenses. It's a short week,

449
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: their defenses that are on the field a ton lately.

450
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: Is there some fatigue there, especially in the second half potentially?

451
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 2: And then also with the Steelers offense, say, look, we

452
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 2: were saying, look at their their first look at their

453
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: success right on first down. Look, we were saying this

454
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 2: early in the year that their offense was a little flawed,

455
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 2: but obviously it's looked way worse lately. Why, well, they've

456
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 2: had a lot of drops, you know, they had fumbles,

457
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: bad snaps. So like there's some regression coming for the

458
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: Steelers offense. It'll look like what it did earlier in

459
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 2: the year. It's still a flawed offense, but it's not

460
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: as bad as it's been over the past few weeks,

461
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 2: you know. I mean they've had twenty drops it seems

462
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 2: every week, So that's not going to persist. So maybe

463
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: you get some regression in that department. So yeah, just

464
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: aside for me and I'll have a piece of the side.

465
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: And I also, like I said, I tease the Steelers

466
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: up over a touchdown here, which I love. I mean,

467
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: you can get them, you can tease them to plus

468
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 2: state and I make them a small favorite. So basically

469
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: just buying low and getting value after what we saw

470
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 2: last week. And it's not look, I mean the Colts

471
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 2: too have won. There are only two above average defenses

472
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: the Colts have faced are the Bears and the Ravens.

473
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 2: That's it. And they did nothing, Like look at the

474
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: success rate. The yards for play under four did nothing

475
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: against either defense. Steelers defense is obviously on par there.

476
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 2: This is outdoors in the cold. You'll get an angry,

477
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 2: angry Steelers defense here in a great Tomlin spot. So

478
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 2: buying low. This was Steelers minus three before this week.

479
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 2: If it was Steelers minus three after the Steelers beat

480
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: the Bengals without a bunch of flute turnovers, I wouldn't

481
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 2: betting it. Give me two here we are.

482
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right with you. It looks like we both

483
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 4: have the line at Steelers minus one. And you know

484
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 4: that is after downgrading them a ton, because they are

485
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,959
Speaker 4: you know, they have suffered some injuries on defense, they

486
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 4: aren't playing as well, that's clear. But yeah, definitely expect

487
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 4: some regression from these Pittsburgh Steelers, who are still number

488
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 4: one overall and weighted defensive DVOA and they are top

489
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 4: three against both the run in the past. They're number

490
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 4: one against the pass and their their pass defense is

491
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 4: still it's twenty one point seven percent better than we average.

492
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 4: That's double more than all but one team in the league.

493
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 4: Only Washington has a defensive DVOA at number two at

494
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 4: fifteen minus fifteen point eight. That's even within you know,

495
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 4: that's even West and double of the Steelers against the pass.

496
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 4: So like them against Philip Rivers and yeah, like the

497
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 4: like the Tomlin Spy here, so I'll be on the

498
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 4: Steelers as well.

499
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,600
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500
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Speaker 7: Promo offer not available in Nevada. And now back to the.

516
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 4: Show for the third pick of the week, sixteen Sunday

517
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 4: sixth pack. My number two pick, I'm going with the

518
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 4: Jacksonville Jaguars getting ugly here plus seven and a half

519
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 4: at home against the Chicago Bears. Look the Chicago Bears,

520
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 4: They've come alive a little bit over the past couple

521
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 4: of weeks. They play just a gutted Houston team and

522
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 4: blow them out, and then they are able to hold

523
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 4: on against Minnesota. Play a good game against Minnesota, David

524
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 4: Montgomery has really come on. But now you're talking about

525
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 4: the Bears still with Mitch Trubisky, or as you like

526
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 4: to call them, Mitch Bortles at quarterback.

527
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 6: You've just been bortled seven and a half.

528
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 4: Point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. And you look

529
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 4: at these type of spots, you know the Bears first

530
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 4: of all, improbably so. The Bears have now scored thirty

531
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,360
Speaker 4: points or more in each of their last three games. Well,

532
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 4: if you look back in our Action Labs database, teams

533
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 4: on a three game streak of scoring thirty or more

534
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 4: points wait in the year, week ten or later going

535
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 4: against non and weite team. So any team with winning

536
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 4: less than two thirds of their games winning percentage under

537
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 4: sixty six percent, those teams are just forty and sixty

538
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,360
Speaker 4: two against the spread since two thousand and three. They're

539
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 4: covering at just a thirty nine percent clip in these spots.

540
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 4: So love the Jaguars to keep it close. They've they've

541
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 4: faced some some matchups in which it just wasn't gonna

542
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 4: happen for him. You know, Baltimore kind of hitting its stride.

543
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 4: You know, that wasn't a very good matchup for Jacksonville.

544
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 4: But remember this, this Jaguars team, you know, was able

545
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 4: to keep it close against the Minnesota Vikings. This is

546
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 4: a team that kept it within two of the Cleveland Browns.

547
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,959
Speaker 4: They kept it within four of the Green Bay Packers

548
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 4: in Lambeau. So just a pesky Jags team. James Robinson

549
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 4: had a little bit of a scare, but looks like

550
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 4: they're just going to kind of rest him in practice.

551
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 4: He is expected to play. They'll have Chark, We'll see

552
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 4: about the quarterback. But I think just this Jags team,

553
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 4: you know, minch whether it's Minshew, whether it's Mike Glennon,

554
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 4: It's not really much of a difference in terms of

555
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 4: my power rating for this team. This is just more

556
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 4: so a little bit of an inflated line at this

557
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 4: point in the season. With the Bears recent success, playing

558
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 4: against the bad Wyans defense, a terrible Texans defense, the

559
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 4: whole Texans team was kind of missing a lot of

560
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 4: key guys in that game, and then you know, they

561
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 4: have one good game against a really really good game

562
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 4: against Minnesota last week. But I just think it's a

563
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 4: little bit of an overreaction here. And on top of it,

564
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 4: and I know you like to talk about this, but

565
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 4: the Bears they're still in the playoff race. The Jags

566
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 4: they are not. The Jags now actually have that number

567
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 4: one pick. They're in the lead for that number one

568
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 4: pick because of the Jets win. But usually in these spots,

569
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 4: and you can probably put some numbers to this, the

570
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 4: team with no motivation is the more profit. Sad.

571
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this too. You got the first pick

572
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: this week, took the Rams. I like in the teas

573
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: and like the spot matchups that I took the Steelers,

574
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 2: so I think you like as well. This would have

575
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 2: been a second pick. You picked the Jags, So I

576
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: really like the Jags.

577
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 4: Here.

578
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: It's look there, it's gonna be Glennon and Minshew are

579
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 2: gonna have a I don't know, a competition this week

580
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 2: where looks better in practice is starting so stated, I agree,

581
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 2: it doesn't make that much of a difference. But yeah,

582
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 2: so this is one of the things I like about

583
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: Week sixteen. You get these narratives and over inflation in

584
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 2: the market because nomber what. The Bears have been playing better,

585
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: Their offensive been playing better with Mitch Trubisky. That's true,

586
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 2: but they've played through the three of the worst. You know,

587
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 2: I mean Houston and Detroit, I mean Minnesota not great defense.

588
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: Now they're not gonna get another They're gonna get another

589
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 2: bad defense here. But the market has just overbought the Bears.

590
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 2: Now I still don't believe in this offense or Mitch

591
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: Bortles after just a three game stretch against bad defenses. Yeah,

592
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: there's also Oh, the Jags are gonna lose on purpose

593
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 2: for the number one pick. Why do the Jets do that?

594
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 2: These are still players and coaches playing for their jobs,

595
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 2: playing for in their literally contracts incentives, and they just

596
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: go out. They're not gonna go out there and take knees.

597
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 2: And now they have something to play for, They're going

598
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: out and there we can spoil the Bears season. I

599
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 2: mean I only make this line plus five and a half.

600
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: Think about Remember this Jacks team has six one possession

601
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 2: losses on the year. Six. Just a few weeks ago,

602
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 2: the Browns against Michael Lennon were minus six in Jacksonville.

603
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,479
Speaker 2: Now the Bears are links seven and a half. I mean,

604
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: we're saying that the Bears are one and a half

605
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 2: points better than the Browns. Now, by the way, I

606
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: know that the Browns have a negative point differential, and

607
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 2: they have ten wins, which is funny because the Ravens

608
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: have nine wins and like one hundred and whatever it is.

609
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 2: But yeah, so I think that we're getting value. I mean,

610
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 2: I don't think that the Jags are going to tank.

611
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 2: I think it's quite the opposite. They showed that they'll

612
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 2: fight this year. They've gotten going out the past two weeks.

613
00:31:58,280 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: The Bears have looked a little better. Now you're getting

614
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 2: on this line over seven, So I completely agree. I'll

615
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: have an article up for next week on Week seventeen. Yeah,

616
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: the team's playing for nothing against the teams that need

617
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: to win, the teams that need to win, all the

618
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: pressure on them too, and then you're getting some line

619
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 2: value in the team that is generally dead but now

620
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 2: has up. Look, this is our playoff game, I believe

621
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: historically you have to keep track of this manually, so

622
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 2: I have to check. I do a Week seventeen article piece.

623
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: But they had like sixty three percent against the spread

624
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 2: over the final two weeks.

625
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just expecting, you know, especially coming off you know,

626
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 4: two straight they played two of the better team than

627
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 4: the AFC, the Titans and the Ravens. You know, some

628
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 4: big ball at losses. But prior to those two games,

629
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 4: you know, coming out of the bye, they had kept

630
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 4: four of their five games within four points. So are

631
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 4: they gonna get blown out for the third straight week. Maybe,

632
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 4: But I'm not buying the Bears more than a touchdown

633
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 4: favorite on the road with the same offense Da've essentially

634
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 4: had a year. And by the way, you know, some

635
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 4: pretty significant injuries on defense that we don't know at

636
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 4: this point in the week if these guys are going

637
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,479
Speaker 4: to be back. I mean, you have Dion Bush, the safety,

638
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 4: still not practicing. You have a Keen Hicks didn't practice

639
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 4: Wednesday with an ankle. Jaywen Johnson, who missed last week

640
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 4: along with Bush questionable with a shoulder injury, did not

641
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 4: practice and bust the screens still in the concussion protocols

642
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 4: we record this Wednesday, so he didn't practice either. So

643
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 4: that that, you know, especially Johnson and Screen was along

644
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 4: with Bush. That's like a cluster of injuries in that secondary,

645
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 4: which is exactly what the Jags you know, you know,

646
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 4: with the doctor order for the Jags to kind of

647
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 4: keep it close.

648
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: Yep. All right. For my second pick and the fourth

649
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: overall of the Sunday six pack. I'm going with the

650
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: Las Vegas Raiders plus three at home against the Miami Dolphins.

651
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins have been a covering machine covered again last week.

652
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 2: I think they're eleven and three gets the spread, most

653
00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 2: profitable in the NFL by far, But this line is

654
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: crazy and it might go even higher. This is plus

655
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 2: three minus one oh five. Everyone wants about the Dolphins.

656
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: I don't know anyone wants to bet the Raiders. I

657
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 2: think Derek Carr is actually gonna play. He never misses

658
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 2: a game. He's missed like two games because he broke

659
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: his leg at the end of one season. He was practicing.

660
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: But even if not, it's not a huge drop off

661
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 2: between him and Mariota. The Raiders are the best backup

662
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: quarterback situation, and Mariota got reps last week. They also

663
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 2: have extra prep here. They played on Thursday night, Dolphins

664
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: coming across the country, and the Raiders still can make

665
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: the playoffs. They need the One of the scenarios that

666
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: they need is to raid the Ravens to lose out.

667
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: They play the Giants and the Bengals, and they need

668
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 2: the Dolphins to lose out. Obviously, they can help that,

669
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 2: but it's not gonna happen. But this is the Raiders

670
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: playoff game. They could spoil the Dolphins season. This is

671
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: a huge implications on the AFC wild Card. If the

672
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 2: Raiders can win this game, they'll be up for it.

673
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: All the pressures on Miami and rookie quarterback to last week,

674
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: they were able to run the ball on New England.

675
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 2: I knew the England's run defense was weak. I didn't

676
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 2: think Miyam's gonna have that much success this defense. The

677
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: special teams are really good, but they've benefited from a

678
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 2: lot of flukes. The defense is really good on the

679
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: back end, but they benefited from a lot of turners.

680
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 2: People say this is what they do. I mean, turnovers

681
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: are not that predicted. Yes, Zadan Howard is a corner

682
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 2: that's aggressive and will have more picks on He's projected

683
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 2: at more picks on an average cornerback. But on the

684
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 2: other side, Byron Jones, he never gets an interception. So

685
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 2: they've been running well in turnovers. That's inflating their defensive numbers.

686
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: This is still an offense I have major questions about.

687
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: This is an offense that still has injuries at wide

688
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: receiver and potentially tight end. Some of those guys might

689
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: be back this week, but maybe not at full strength.

690
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: The run defense is still very weak, which the Raiders

691
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 2: might be able to exploit. And this is still at

692
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 2: Dolphins offense, and to it, I have questions about him.

693
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 2: And this is still the same quarterback that could barely

694
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 2: complete a pass in a loss at Denver. Does anyone

695
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: remember that game? Now? Everyone is such short term memory

696
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: Miami back in November twenty second, so we're talking a

697
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 2: month ago. Denver was plus four at home and won

698
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 2: that game outright with Drew Locke and the Broncos offense.

699
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 2: To anyone remember that Fitzpatrick came in to try to

700
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 2: lead him back to a win eleven of twenty for

701
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: eighty three yards. So you know they've been severely outgained

702
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 2: in some of their wins, even the Chiefs game. I mean,

703
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 2: look at the yards for playing that game. They just

704
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 2: got a bunch of fluky turnovers. The Rams game, they

705
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 2: were out gained by like four hundred yards. I just

706
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 2: think this team is slightly above average overall. Maybe I'll

707
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: continue to be proved wrong. I think they're running well.

708
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: I still have questions about Tua. I make this line

709
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 2: closer to a pick. Raiders have been on a slide.

710
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 2: Dolphins keep cashing for everybody. You're getting value on the

711
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 2: home dog here. Raiders have some injuries on the defensive side.

712
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 2: I know that some of them practice today. It doesn't

713
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 2: make that much of a difference with the Raiders. They

714
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: stink anyone date not really give me the Raiders here

715
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 2: plus three at home. I think they went Yeah.

716
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 4: I like the Raiders in the spot too. Like you

717
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 4: look at Miami and first of all, we know I

718
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 4: think car would you know he he's Mariota looked good

719
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 4: aside from that one bad play against the Chargers. But

720
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 4: Carr did practice in full today Wednesday as we record,

721
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: this looks like he will in fact be back. And

722
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 4: he's averaged He literally never missed his games.

723
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 2: He had a broken leg only time.

724
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 4: And did so he's averaging seven point four adjusted netyards

725
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 4: per pass attempt. Compare that to tow a tongue of

726
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 4: Ailoa five point nine to five to is twenty fifth

727
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 4: in the league. Car is ninth in the league. Uh

728
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 4: And I think even if you drop down to Mariota,

729
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 4: you will still end up above where two is at.

730
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 4: So I you know that combined with the you know,

731
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 4: going across the country, coming off a big win against

732
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 4: a division rival in the Patriots, in a rookie quarterback

733
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 4: doing it, which really never happens against Belichick, an eleven

734
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 4: and three team against the spread, like you have all

735
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 4: the ingredients to a by low. I you know, the

736
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 4: Dolphins I think will have success U right. I think

737
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 4: both teams will have success running the ball because you

738
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 4: have the Dolphins twenty fourth and dvoa. The Raiders are

739
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 4: or one of the worst in the league. I do

740
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 4: like self for the Dolphins, and Gaskin looks like he's

741
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 4: going to be back, but this is probably a matchup. Yeah,

742
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 4: I think the Dolphins at this point, just because they

743
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 4: do have a better pass defense, are the better team.

744
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 4: But you're talking about three points at home for the Raiders,

745
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 4: where I think these teams are a lot more evenly

746
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 4: matched than the line that suggests. So I have the

747
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 4: Dolphins as one point favorites, and that's that may even

748
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 4: adjust a little more because, as you mentioned, you look

749
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 4: at the practice report for the Raiders on Wednesday, and

750
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 4: remember they've been without a bunch of key guys on

751
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 4: defense over these past few weeks. Everyone practiced on Wednesday,

752
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 4: except for Cleveland Ferrell due to injury. You had Marrow

753
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 4: and Carl Nassib they did not practice but for non

754
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,280
Speaker 4: injury reasons. But you had Jonathan Abram the safety practiced.

755
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 4: Renfro who went out last game. He practiced. Ruggs coming

756
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 4: back to the team. He may may or may not play.

757
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 4: But you are getting healthier if you're the Raiders, So

758
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 4: I like it all right, Wall you go next for

759
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 4: the fifth pick of the week sixteen Sunday six pack

760
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 4: and my third overall pick, going with the Denver Broncos

761
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 4: here plus three and a half at Anthony win Oll reliable.

762
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 4: I don't think the Broncos should be getting I don't

763
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: think the Chargers should be get more than a field

764
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 4: goal in this spot. I think the Broncos. Listen, the

765
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: Bills have been a buzzsaw recently, and you know they

766
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,320
Speaker 4: destroyed Denver. I know you liked them last week. I

767
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 4: did as well, but I liked the bounce back spot here.

768
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 4: First of all, Charges really don't have a home field advantage.

769
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 4: Anthony win in eight fifteen and one against the spread

770
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 4: thirty five percent as a favorite in Los Angeles, but

771
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 4: also a good bye low on the Broncos road teams

772
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 4: coming off a twenty or more point loss against the

773
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 4: non elite home team sixty percent win percentage. You're under

774
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 4: one thirty seven eighty eight and four against the spread

775
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 4: sixty two percent since two thousand and three. According to

776
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 4: our Action Labs database, the Broncos beat the Chargers and

777
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 4: win with Vic Fangio in both of the games last year,

778
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 4: and beat him earlier this year in a big comeback,

779
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 4: so it's been a struggle for win against Vic Fangio.

780
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 4: I think even you know the Broncos are depleted on

781
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 4: defense compared to where what they had earlier in the year.

782
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 4: But you have Keenan Allen nin one hundred percent for

783
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,720
Speaker 4: the Chargers, did not play anywhere near a full complement

784
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 4: of snaps last week and is not practicing to start

785
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 4: this week either, So still have bad we missing field goals.

786
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 4: So give me the three and a half yere in

787
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 4: a game I think the Broncos could win, but this

788
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 4: thing could very well come down to a bad new

789
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 4: field goal or something like that, which is no given

790
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 4: as we saw last week, and the Broncos are getting

791
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 4: their kicker back, Brandon McManus, who missed last week and

792
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 4: the Broncos missed I think was it three or four

793
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 4: kicks last week. So just like a bounce back spot

794
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 4: for the Denver Broncos Here Division game late in the

795
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 4: year with a coach who's had an edge over the

796
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 4: over the.

797
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: Favor if put a gun in my hat, I take

798
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: the Broncos here. I mean the problem look all as

799
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: smart producer map to play the clown horn noise for

800
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: my my Broncos picked last week. I mean they just

801
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 2: got crushed in my defense. I mean it was just

802
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: an awful pick, but where everything went wrong and I

803
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 2: look back and I watched that game and it's one

804
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,800
Speaker 2: of the hardest things that I struggled to handicap is

805
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 2: these cluster injuries. I mean the Broncos secondary, it's bad

806
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 2: boy is gone. Bryce Callahan is their ace, he's gone

807
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 2: on IR, suspended. He's saying Bassie is on IR, Duke

808
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 2: Dawson's on IR, Kevin Tolliver's on IR. I mean they're

809
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 2: starting corners now, are Ojamudi a rookie who struggled to

810
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 2: say the least, and Harston who they picked up off

811
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 2: the street like two weeks ago. They got I think

812
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 2: Bowsby I think they bows is like they're back up

813
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 2: now Will Parks. The safety they got recently is playing nickel.

814
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: I mean it's playing slot and the nickel. I mean

815
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: it's bad now. The Bills are playing so well and

816
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 2: that they just and they did the same thing with

817
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: the Niners, who would backup sit at corner. That's what

818
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 2: scares me here because the Chargers didn't do have a

819
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 2: couple extra days of rest. So are their receivers a

820
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 2: lot healthier if they are. We've seen Herbert destroy almost

821
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 2: every bad defense he's faced, even some good ones this year,

822
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 2: so that's what scares me here. I make the line

823
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 2: like two and a half two point six. I you

824
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 2: at least got these corners last week, and they'll have

825
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 2: an extra day, which can't hurt. But they got some

826
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 2: game action against an offense it's rolling, so you'd expect

827
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 2: them to be a little bit better after being thrown

828
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 2: into the fire. But it's still a dicey situation with

829
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 2: the hook. I agree with you, but and look, you're

830
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: who wants to buy who wants to buy the Broncos

831
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 2: right now, which is probably why you're getting this hook.

832
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 2: So I don't hate it for my third pick and

833
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 2: the sixth overall of the Sunday six pack. I'm going

834
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: to change it up on you and I'll cover this

835
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: game quickly. I like the forty nine ers. They can

836
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 2: ruin the Cardinal season. They're also basically playing at home.

837
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 2: They're playing where they've been playing at home. I think

838
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 2: that they're going to have some of their corners back,

839
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: which they got back last week. I know bether to start.

840
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 2: I think Bethor's one in sixteen straight up as a starter,

841
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 2: but Malins has been killing them with turnovers. Killed them.

842
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 2: You go take a look at the Niners box scores

843
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 2: of the last couple of weeks. They out game teams

844
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 2: by three hundred yards and lose. I think, what are

845
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 2: they out game the Cowboys by last week? Two hundred

846
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,479
Speaker 2: and sixty yards? I mean, it's crazy. So they're moving

847
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 2: the ball. Kittle might be back. Kittle should destroy the

848
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: Cardinals if he is. So, there's some things I like

849
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: about san Feran this week. They can ruin Cardinals season.

850
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 2: All the pressures on the Cardinals. Wait for that line.

851
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 2: That line potentially could keep going up. But I'm gonna

852
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 2: switch it up here for my third pick. I'm going

853
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 2: with the this and this is a lot on a gut.

854
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 2: This is just on a gut. The Houston Texans minus

855
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 2: eight and a half at bet MGM against the Bengals. Look,

856
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 2: the Bengals are a disaster since Joe Burrow has left.

857
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 2: They they have no explosiveness on offense. This is a

858
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 2: team that was averaging three point nine yards per play

859
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 2: leading up to the Steelers game. What did they do

860
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: last week? They got a bunch of turnovers, they had

861
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: Ryan Finley runs. Was their offense? It's bad. I mean

862
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 2: they had one hundred and forty eight total yards through

863
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 2: three quarters. They're averaging like three and a half yards

864
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 2: for play. Offense stinks, and now they have some injuries.

865
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 2: Tyler Boyd he's I don't know, he's cushing on a

866
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,479
Speaker 2: short week. I imagine he's out. But the offense stikes.

867
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 2: It's horrendous. It's the same team that got blown out

868
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 2: by the Cowboys, just getting trucked in the past weeks.

869
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,240
Speaker 2: They came out to play. Granted, I mean their offense stunk.

870
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 2: That whole defense came out to play. Smith Uster is

871
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 2: not even allowed to dance anymore. They embarrassed him so much.

872
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,399
Speaker 2: That was their Super Bowl you want to talk about

873
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: teams that have nothing to play for until you know

874
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 2: the end of the year, when oh, look, we've stunk

875
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 2: all year, our seasons going nowhere. Now we get to

876
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 2: play our rival who's trying to clinch the division, and

877
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,839
Speaker 2: they came out fired up that whole defensive backfield. Now

878
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 2: short week, you're going to Houston, it's like you're and

879
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,919
Speaker 2: nothing is nothing's going on in your season. Talk about

880
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: a letdown city. I mean, I can see since he

881
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 2: and even they don't lay a egg, they still could

882
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: get blown out here. But I can see them just

883
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 2: laying a complete egg and lose this game by thirty five,

884
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 2: similar to how they lost to the Cowboys at home

885
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 2: last week. So I love the Texas a teaser piece,

886
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: but I'll lay here. Everything inside me tells me this

887
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 2: is the Texans truck. Short weeks since he wins their

888
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, I mean, and their offense is horrendous, horrendous,

889
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,399
Speaker 2: And you gotta give credit to the Texans. By the way,

890
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 2: just to go back to the Colts, Colts ten and four,

891
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 2: what are there? Seven and seven? They beat the Packers

892
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 2: in overtime, could have lost two of the last three weeks.

893
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 2: They played the Texans shorthanded Texans who had the ball

894
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 2: inside the ten with a chance to win, and they've

895
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 2: bubbled both times. But the Colts eas could have lost

896
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 2: both those games, by the way, So you give credit

897
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 2: to shorthanded Texas team. They're still playing and fighting. So

898
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 2: I think Watson will do his thing, and there's a

899
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 2: real good chance here. The Bengals lay a complete egg

900
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 2: after winning their Super Bowl, one of the biggest upsets

901
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 2: of the year. So give me the Texans. And I

902
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 2: also like the Niners, but that's just a bonus.

903
00:46:56,000 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 4: But yeah, the Texans scare me a little bit, like

904
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 4: I actually make this line seven. Maybe I do have

905
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,760
Speaker 4: to adjust a little more for the Bengals wet down spot.

906
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:07,759
Speaker 4: And I like what Deshaun Watson has been able to

907
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 4: do even without Will Fuller. He's still averaging eight zero

908
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 4: point eight yards per pass attempt, which is just just

909
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 4: amazing given kind of you know, some of the defenses

910
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 4: they faced, and you know, missing Fuller for the second

911
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 4: half of the season, so I could see the Texans

912
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 4: blown them out. And you were on the Texans. So

913
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 4: they've only won two games by eight or more points.

914
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,919
Speaker 4: You were on the first one. When they fired their coach.

915
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 4: They beat the Jags, and then I think we both

916
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 4: were kind of talking about how probably a good spot

917
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,479
Speaker 4: for them on things given they beat the Lions forty

918
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 4: one to twenty five, so you know they can't do it,

919
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:45,320
Speaker 4: they are capable of doing it, and I do like Watson,

920
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 4: but yeah, have it around seven. So I wasn't planning

921
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 4: on betting it, but I can definitely see where you're

922
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:51,399
Speaker 4: where're coming from there.

923
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 2: Good teaser piece, great teaser piece.

924
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 4: All right, So that wraps it up for the week

925
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 4: number sixteen Sunday and Saturday six packs. Stuck going with

926
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 4: the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two, the Vegas Raiders plus three,

927
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 4: and the Houston Texans minus eight. I am going with

928
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 4: the Rams plus one and a half, the Jags plus

929
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 4: seven and a half, and the Broncos plus three and

930
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 4: a half. There's a reminder you can follow all of

931
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 4: the Sunday six pack picks in the Action Network app.

932
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 4: Just search Sunday six pack in the Action Network Apps

933
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 4: follow feature to see the picks. Next up, we have

934
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 4: our favorite over under play of the week. All right, Stuck,

935
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:37,280
Speaker 4: I started the six pack where you're going for the total?

936
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:41,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty sharp totals out there Compared to my numbers

937
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: this week, I don't see a ton. I don't really

938
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 2: love many totals, but one that I like that I'll

939
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 2: throw out here at Betamgen. The Browns Jets over forty

940
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 2: six and a half. The Jets offense is doing some

941
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 2: things recently when they've had their full complement of receivers.

942
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: The most bizarre bizarret of the NFL season is the

943
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 2: Jets have scored on eight straight opening drives. What the

944
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 2: fuck is that? So, I to bean, that is so bizarre.

945
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 2: It's the team that has just won their first game,

946
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 2: then they score on their first drive almost every week.

947
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 2: So the offense, you know, looked a little better last week.

948
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 2: I think that it's trending up. The defense is still

949
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: a mess. Now they lose Quinning Williams is a big

950
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 2: loss for this week. In that matchup, Brown's offense is

951
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: playing well. I think this is a good matchup for them,

952
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,240
Speaker 2: and I still don't believe in the Browns defense whatsoever.

953
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 2: So I think the Browns will be able to do

954
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 2: their thing. I think the Jets will score some points.

955
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 2: Don't count out the Jets in this. The Browns should

956
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 2: take care of businesses. They're fully focused, but they get

957
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 2: caught peeking ahead and assuming this is a win for

958
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,280
Speaker 2: a team that's not used to being in the spot

959
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 2: seem weirder things. I mean, the Jets beating the Rams

960
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 2: is a lot weirder than this. So I think there's

961
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 2: more points than I think that Browns can get to

962
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 2: twenty seven here, and I think the Jets definitely can

963
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 2: get the twenty at the minimum. So give me the over.

964
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, just playing better. I mean, hey, maybe Adam Gase

965
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 4: is coming out the gate with some of those scripted

966
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 4: plays and then you know, the talent definicit shows up

967
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 4: later in the game. But yeah, they have been they

968
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,839
Speaker 4: have been good early on, So maybe a first half

969
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 4: line to think about as well. For my total, I

970
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 4: am going Ravens Giants under forty five and a half.

971
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:31,560
Speaker 4: The Giants, they're to me, one of the they're an

972
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 4: under team. If you look at what Patrick Graham, the

973
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:38,800
Speaker 4: defensive coordinator has done this year, coming came out with

974
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 4: some really good game plans, and I think all but

975
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 4: maybe one or two games, I think the Cardinals game

976
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 4: sticks out in the forty nine Ers game, but and

977
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 4: all the rest of them just a just very well

978
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 4: game plan. Now you're going to have James Bradbury off

979
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 4: the COVID list. You know he can you put him

980
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 4: on Marquise Brown. The Giants' biggest weakness in terms of

981
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 4: DVOA versus receivers is against you know, non number one

982
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:07,399
Speaker 4: number two, so the you know, non primary wideouts. It's

983
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 4: not really the Ravens strength. You look at these teams

984
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 4: in terms of pace, the Giants are twentieth in neutral

985
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:18,759
Speaker 4: pace thirty point five seconds per play. The Ravens are

986
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 4: thirty first in neutral pace. They take thirty two point

987
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 4: seconds between plays on average. And another thing I like

988
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,919
Speaker 4: to look for when betting unders is how the past

989
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 4: defense is generally scheme and in terms of their average

990
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 4: target depth that they allow. You know, some defenses will

991
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:37,839
Speaker 4: kind of force you to beat them over the top.

992
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 4: Some defenses will try to keep everything in front of them.

993
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 4: The Giants are fifth in lowest a dot average depth

994
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 4: of target allowed at seven point five yards and the

995
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 4: Ravens are tenth at seven point eight. So you have

996
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 4: two top ten teams in terms of fewest average depth

997
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:57,840
Speaker 4: of target allowed. And then the middle of the field

998
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 4: is generally where teams are gonna have the most success

999
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 4: on offense throwing the ball. The NFL average DVOA to

1000
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 4: the middle is eight point five percent, whereas you know,

1001
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 4: that's the highest by far, you know, compared to throwing

1002
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 4: to you know, to the left or the right where

1003
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:16,879
Speaker 4: you know the sideline is going to come into play,

1004
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 4: You're taking some deeper shots there, So, uh, the DVOA

1005
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 4: is much lower there. And both of these teams, their

1006
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 4: top DVOA ranking comes over the middle of the field.

1007
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 4: Both of these teams are are at their best defending

1008
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 4: the middle. The Ravens are number four, playing twelve point

1009
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 4: six expected points better than average over the middle, and

1010
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,879
Speaker 4: the Giants are at seven point nine. But the league

1011
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:40,800
Speaker 4: average is eight point five percent, so Giants above average

1012
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 4: is well fifteenth in the league. Uh, And I just

1013
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 4: think either you're going to see Ravens just kind of

1014
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 4: take care of business and the Giants still struggle to

1015
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 4: score points. If Daniel Jones isn't fully healthier, they have

1016
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 4: to start McCoy, or you see the Giants kind of

1017
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,800
Speaker 4: hang in this one. And either way, I think you

1018
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:01,799
Speaker 4: know that their route to hanging in it is they're

1019
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 4: gonna limit the Ravens on offense. The Giants are number

1020
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 4: four red zone conversion rates allowed on defense, and that's

1021
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,760
Speaker 4: essentially how you're gonna stop the Ravens. Make Justin Tucker

1022
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 4: kick a bunch of of field goals, but I don't

1023
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 4: see the Giants offense putting up a ton of points

1024
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 4: on this Ravens D that's reasonably healthy at this point

1025
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 4: in the season.

1026
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. I think it's under or

1027
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 2: nothing there. I think the line is pretty spot on.

1028
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,479
Speaker 2: What are you hearing in Giants slamfer who's gonna start?

1029
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 2: I know that they said that they're going to see

1030
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 2: how healthy Jones is.

1031
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, it looks like they're going to go back to Jones.

1032
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 4: I mean, now you're really getting into must win territory

1033
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 4: if you want to keep any hope of of the

1034
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 4: division title alive. They were close to playing him last week,

1035
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 4: so I would I'm it looks he's practicing, so it

1036
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:46,720
Speaker 4: looks like he will make his return.

1037
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 2: But I would guess not even if he's a little hampered.

1038
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 2: I mean that offense is it's done. I mean, it's

1039
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 2: you throw him out there. I mean, look what Arizona

1040
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:56,879
Speaker 2: did them. They fifty yards in the first half. So yeah,

1041
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 2: don't hate it at all.

1042
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you got the uh just it should be

1043
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 4: about in the mid thirties in terms of the temperature,

1044
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:06,920
Speaker 4: so I'd like it from that angle. But the Giants

1045
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 4: unders are eleven and three on the year, Ravens are

1046
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 4: seven and seven, so they've kind of played to what

1047
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 4: you'd expect with Giants three and eleven, the most profitable

1048
00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 4: under team in the league this season. To give me

1049
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,280
Speaker 4: under forty five and a half. As a reminder, Stuck

1050
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 4: has the Jets and the Browns over forty six and

1051
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:26,359
Speaker 4: a half.

1052
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 2: What number would you take that up to, by the way, stuff, Yeah,

1053
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 2: I think I would take it up to forty seven

1054
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:31,439
Speaker 2: and a half definitely, not forty eight or higher.

1055
00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 4: So there you have it. I would take the Giants

1056
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 4: Ravens total down to forty four and a half. And

1057
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 4: let's get into our top teasers of the week.

1058
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, six point teasers for those not familiar.

1059
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,280
Speaker 4: A teaser, so when you combine two or more bets

1060
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 4: for each bet, you're getting an extra six points or

1061
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 4: however many points you are teasing toward the point spread

1062
00:54:57,239 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 4: for each team. So, for example, if you're teasing an

1063
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 4: eight point fav they become a two point favorite and

1064
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:05,479
Speaker 4: eight point underdog, it becomes a fourteen point underdog. Stuck

1065
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:08,120
Speaker 4: has a lot of great content about the ins and

1066
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 4: outs of teasing. What key numbers you are looking for?

1067
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 4: Google it, check it out at actionnetwork dot com. However

1068
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 4: you find articles, go in the Action Network gap. But Stuck,

1069
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 4: what are you doing for your two team six point

1070
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 4: teaser this week?

1071
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 2: Well, this shouldn't take long because I've already talked about

1072
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 2: my two teaser spots multiple times. There's a bunch of

1073
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,759
Speaker 2: good teaser spots. I've already put a couple teasers out

1074
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 2: on the app. But I've already mentioned text in such

1075
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:36,799
Speaker 2: a good teaser piece, and the Rams getting them over

1076
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 2: a touchdown anytime you can, especially in this matchup, but

1077
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 2: anytime you can get a dog teased over seven. A

1078
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 2: team teased over seven against Seahawks usually end up in

1079
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 2: good shape. So already talked about them Rams Texans.

1080
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll go Raiders Panthers here. Raiders will see how

1081
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 4: the line moves, which way it moves. But you know,

1082
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 4: if they get down to two and a half, probably,

1083
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 4: you know, make even more sense than just taking this

1084
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 4: the flat out. You know, the plus two and a

1085
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:08,879
Speaker 4: half versus Right now, it's still at three and going

1086
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:12,759
Speaker 4: with the Panthers. They're currently two point dogs. Would love

1087
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 4: it even more if they got up to two and

1088
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 4: a half, depending on We'll see what happens with Alex

1089
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 4: Smith and whether he's starting or Haskins has to make

1090
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 4: another start. Looks like he's just gonna catch a fine

1091
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 4: for the trip club incident. But right now, Panthers currently

1092
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 4: two points underdogs. Teddy Bridgewater in his career nineteen and

1093
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 4: three against the spread on the road, which is just

1094
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 4: completely ridiculous. But I think the Panthers can keep this

1095
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 4: one close against Washington, just because Washington they may get

1096
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 4: Antonio Gibson back, but he may be banged up, but

1097
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:48,720
Speaker 4: this team is not gonna score many points on offense.

1098
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 4: The Panthers have surprisingly played some decent defense, even though

1099
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 4: they're really kind of at a talent deficit. I don't

1100
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 4: see this Washington team is one that's gonna take advantage

1101
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 4: or bull the doors off. And you know we saw

1102
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 4: the the Panthers hold the Packers somewhat in check after

1103
00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 4: even after a big first half, they allowing three points

1104
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,800
Speaker 4: in the second half. The one injury that concerns. Me

1105
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 4: is Burns looks like he's going to be out, so

1106
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 4: that's a that's a pass rusher for Carolina or I

1107
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 4: might be, you know, taking them straight up as a

1108
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 4: money line dog or as one of my picks to

1109
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 4: win the game. But I think they can definitely keep

1110
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 4: it close here against Washington.

1111
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with those Steelers I mentioned as well.

1112
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: And then I'll throw another game here the Cowboys Eagles.

1113
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 2: I think Cowboys, I make that game closer to pick.

1114
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles secondaries estimated their offense is playing

1115
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 2: so much better with herts, But I mean, what are

1116
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 2: the Cardinals average eight yards for play last week? I

1117
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 2: don't think. I don't think that the Eagles are capable

1118
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 2: belowing that game open. So if you can tease the

1119
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,240
Speaker 2: Cowboys update and a half, I think that's another good

1120
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 2: teaser piece. So it's a great teaser week this week.

1121
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 4: YEP, definitely agree there we have it stuck going with

1122
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:04,439
Speaker 4: the Rams teasing them up to seven and a half

1123
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 4: and the Texans down to a two point favorite. And

1124
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Vegas Raiders up to plus nine

1125
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 4: and the Panthers up to plus eight, and we're gonna

1126
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 4: dedicate this week's coach is pep Talk Too, Dwayne Haskins

1127
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 4: and that Washington football team. Today's pep Talk comes to

1128
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 4: us from Frank Reynolds and the television show Always Sunny

1129
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 4: in Philadelphia. Dedicated to you, mister Dwayne Haskins.

1130
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 2: You're the strip club music. This is pathetic, this is awful.

1131
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 5: We've all been humiliated, our asses are destroyed.

1132
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 2: You know what, Let's just go back to the bar,

1133
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 2: right the bars where we belong, to the bars where

1134
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 2: we fit.

1135
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 4: And we can hide from the world at the bar. No,

1136
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 4: we can't go out like that.

1137
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 5: Look, if life pushes you down, you gotta push back.

1138
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 5: If you're dump a bunch of womens, got those lemons

1139
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 5: and stuff him down somebody's throat until I see yellow.

1140
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 5: And if some punk ass kid humiliates you, you gotta

1141
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 5: do the only thing that's left.

1142
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 4: That do Yeah, who, what's the one thing left to do?

1143
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 4: What is it?

1144
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:22,960
Speaker 5: Well, the thing of it is, there's the lemons stuff,

1145
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 5: and then I lost my train of thought.

1146
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 2: Let's come back to the bar.

1147
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:30,880
Speaker 4: I mean, this guy, Dayne Haskins, he just can't he

1148
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:35,680
Speaker 4: can't stay out of the headlines in all the wrong ways,

1149
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 4: you know, coming off losses even you know, usually the

1150
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 4: Wall should be the biggest headline, but they they lose

1151
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 4: to Baltimore, and he's in there bragging about his his

1152
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 4: passing numbers because I think he went over three hundred,

1153
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,080
Speaker 4: and then he got benched and then he finally he

1154
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 4: comes back and there's like quotes about how grateful he

1155
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 4: is to get another starting opportunity, and then Pitcher surfers

1156
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 4: him maskless in a strip club. So ah Man, Dwayne Haskins,

1157
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 4: clown Horn, do better, Brah. But now it's time for

1158
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:08,680
Speaker 4: our money line underdog.

1159
01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 1: Partley turning good weekends into great weekends.

1160
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:17,440
Speaker 6: It's time for the money line.

1161
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 1: Parlay.

1162
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 4: Got some money line dogs, some gangs we still didn't

1163
01:00:21,680 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 4: talk about. I think I know where you're going here,

1164
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 4: but where are you gonna do?

1165
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 2: I'll go on with the Tennessee Titans. Titans plus one

1166
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 2: sixty on the money line at at MGM. I make

1167
01:00:32,880 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 2: this game like closer to two. So I do think

1168
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 2: that there's value if you can get over three. And

1169
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 2: then also I think if there's value in the money line, obviously,

1170
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 2: I think that. I mean, look the Titans. I'm sure

1171
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 2: you've all seen some of the sets. I mean, if

1172
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 2: you compare Rogers to Mahomes to Tannehill over the last

1173
01:00:53,080 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 2: twenty four games is the best numbers. This offense is

1174
01:00:56,720 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 2: really good and you don't want to face Derrick Henry

1175
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 2: at the end of any season, but especially in twenty

1176
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 2: three weather, especially if there's a frozen track, and this

1177
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 2: could be a snover. What do I mean by snover

1178
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: A snow game? Snovers have historically close to seventy percent

1179
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 2: overs when it's snowing the NFL. You can't have three

1180
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 2: feet of snow in the ground. Obviously that would and

1181
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: now most games don't. But every once in a while

1182
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 2: you'll see that in like Cleveland or Buffalo. But if

1183
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 2: you just have like this time, they're good at cleaning

1184
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:28,680
Speaker 2: the field, but you'll have like an icy track, the

1185
01:01:28,760 --> 01:01:30,880
Speaker 2: offense has the advantage they know where they're going. Plus

1186
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:35,000
Speaker 2: so if there are is some snow, usually everyone overreacts

1187
01:01:35,040 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 2: and says, oh, it's snowing, there's gonna be It's gonna

1188
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:38,959
Speaker 2: hurt the offense and then the total will come down

1189
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:41,640
Speaker 2: as well. You have two things working in your favor.

1190
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 2: Adorri Jackson's back to the Titans. That helps j want

1191
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 2: d Adam is gonna get his no matter what. But

1192
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,080
Speaker 2: at least, yeah, you have another competent corner in there,

1193
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 2: and he played really well last week use first week back.

1194
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:54,720
Speaker 2: He's no longer a figment of our imagination. But the

1195
01:01:54,760 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 2: Titans defense still stinks. The Packer's offense is great, I

1196
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 2: think number one in success right this year. I'm sure

1197
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna get plenty of points, but I think Tennessee

1198
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 2: will as well. Derrick Henry and that offense against a

1199
01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:10,480
Speaker 2: really bad Packers run defense, it's scary thought. This game,

1200
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 2: I think is gonna be great and it'll come down

1201
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 2: to the wire. So good place to take a shot

1202
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 2: with the money line, dog.

1203
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have this that two and a half, and

1204
01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 4: that's what you know. The Packers have some of the

1205
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 4: I still give the Packers more home field advantage than

1206
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:27,080
Speaker 4: the most teams you know playing at Lambeau Wait in

1207
01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:29,480
Speaker 4: the year, but still make this line two and a half.

1208
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 4: So do agree like the value. I think the Titans

1209
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 4: can absolutely win this game because it essentially it is

1210
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 4: going to be a shootout, and the Titans have the

1211
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 4: best shootout player. As you mentioned, for this type of environment,

1212
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:43,520
Speaker 4: these teams are number two and number three respectively, the

1213
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:47,400
Speaker 4: Packers and the Titans in offensive DVOA. So yeah, I

1214
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 4: think it's it's an over game as well. I'll be

1215
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 4: trying to I'll be hoping that line gets down to

1216
01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 4: maybe fifty five or even under still at fifty six,

1217
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:58,040
Speaker 4: but I make it fifty seven and a half. So

1218
01:02:58,800 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 4: I'm looking to bet that over as well. But absolutely

1219
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 4: think the Titans can can win this game. For my

1220
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 4: money line up, do you get some.

1221
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,400
Speaker 2: Snow the one thing you don't want tons of win

1222
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 2: but doesn't look like if there's thirty mile an hour wins,

1223
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 2: it'll take away the you know, the benefit of you know,

1224
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:14,920
Speaker 2: a faster track, but doesn't look like there's gonna be

1225
01:03:14,960 --> 01:03:17,000
Speaker 2: crazy wins. So if you just if there's some snow

1226
01:03:17,040 --> 01:03:18,960
Speaker 2: and that total comes down the fifty five, I think

1227
01:03:19,000 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 2: I'll make it fifty seven and half. Fifty eight to two.

1228
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 2: That's a key number. I'll be hopping on that as

1229
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:25,280
Speaker 2: well with you for my moneyline.

1230
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 4: Dog won't have to spend too much time on it

1231
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 4: because you already talked about it. Going with the Pittsburgh

1232
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:33,640
Speaker 4: Steelers here again, I just think the market has now

1233
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 4: kind of overreacted to Pittsburgh. They've been struggling, but Tom

1234
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 4: Win is a our rack coach. You know, they are

1235
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:43,920
Speaker 4: as an underdog coming off a loss. They're ten and

1236
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 4: seven straight up, so uh, winning more than than half

1237
01:03:47,160 --> 01:03:49,720
Speaker 4: their games under Tom Win, you know, even as a

1238
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:53,080
Speaker 4: dog straight up. So I like them to to get

1239
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:55,680
Speaker 4: this win against Indianapolis. It's essentially what you're betting on

1240
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 4: if you're betting the spread at plus two or plus

1241
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:00,320
Speaker 4: one and a half anyway, So depending on how the

1242
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:03,000
Speaker 4: line moves throughout the week, the money line maybe a

1243
01:04:03,040 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 4: better call. But yeah, I like the Steelers to win

1244
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 4: this game straight up. I again make this line Steelers

1245
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 4: by a point, So I have the Steelers favored here.

1246
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 4: I would take this money line down to a pick

1247
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:17,439
Speaker 4: them all right. Now it's time for best of the rest,

1248
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:19,919
Speaker 4: which are the games we did not hit in any

1249
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:22,280
Speaker 4: other segment, all right, First up, we have the Saturday

1250
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 4: game between the Bucks and the Lions. Lions at home,

1251
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:31,120
Speaker 4: nine and a half point underdogs, the total is up

1252
01:04:31,200 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 4: at fifty three and a half. Looks like Matthew Stafford

1253
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 4: is going to start. Does not look like Kenny Galladay

1254
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 4: would be in the lineup. It still hasn't practiced stuck.

1255
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 4: Thoughts on this one, Yeah, no interest. I mean this

1256
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:46,280
Speaker 4: will just to reiterate play numbers. Can people say I

1257
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 4: bet numbers not teams. I make this line, I think

1258
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 4: depending on Holladay, I think around eight, it's nine and

1259
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 4: a half. If an eight nine, it's at a dead

1260
01:04:56,320 --> 01:04:58,439
Speaker 4: range where games rarely land.

1261
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:00,800
Speaker 2: If this line with a ten and a half, I

1262
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 2: bet the lines. If it went down to six and

1263
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 2: a half, I bet the Bucks. That's it and sitting

1264
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 2: in the dead range, I think the total is about right.

1265
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 2: The Bucks have been beating up on bad defenses all year,

1266
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 2: the Lions defenses headed in the wrong direction. That's so

1267
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:19,480
Speaker 2: maybe pat Matt Patricia is happy Eve. It hasn't been

1268
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:24,240
Speaker 2: getting better, so Bucks should get theirs here but numbers right, No,

1269
01:05:24,400 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 2: no no interest here.

1270
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:27,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have it at eight and a half currently,

1271
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:29,120
Speaker 4: so yeah, it's right in that zone for me, I

1272
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:32,120
Speaker 4: totally agree. Next up, we have the Kansas City Chiefs

1273
01:05:32,200 --> 01:05:35,400
Speaker 4: hosting the Atlanta Falcons Chiefs ten and a half point

1274
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 4: favorites as we record this Wednesday night at BETMGM, the

1275
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 4: official odds provider of the podcast, the total fifty four

1276
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 4: and a half. Thoughts on this one stuff.

1277
01:05:46,040 --> 01:05:49,800
Speaker 2: The Chiefs could lock up everything with a win. They

1278
01:05:49,960 --> 01:05:52,640
Speaker 2: pretty much do have everything locked up already, which is interesting.

1279
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 2: But it'll come down to like strength of victory. I

1280
01:05:55,960 --> 01:05:58,320
Speaker 2: think if the Bills and whatever, the Chiefs are going

1281
01:05:58,360 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 2: to end up winning one of their last two, I

1282
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:01,760
Speaker 2: make this liken nine point.

1283
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:04,520
Speaker 4: Nine nine nine nine nine nine nine nine nine.

1284
01:06:04,560 --> 01:06:06,480
Speaker 2: So I mean it's like ten and a half. I

1285
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 2: don't see much value here. I'm assuming with that number

1286
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 2: that Julio is not going to be at one hundred percent.

1287
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 2: If he doesn't play, I would probably go to ten

1288
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:17,880
Speaker 2: and a half. If he does play, I'm kind of

1289
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:20,160
Speaker 2: hatching here, I'll probably go to nine either way. It's

1290
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 2: not a play for me. The Chiefs they finally covered,

1291
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 2: I think because last week it closed it two and

1292
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:28,320
Speaker 2: a half. I think technically is a consensus closed. They

1293
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:31,360
Speaker 2: didn't cover for like six weeks. The Falcons defense is

1294
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:34,360
Speaker 2: playing better, their offense needs a healthy Julio. They still

1295
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:37,400
Speaker 2: have red zone problems. The Chiefs are kind of just

1296
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 2: still going through the motions. They just know when they

1297
01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:40,680
Speaker 2: can turn it on and they get the win, and

1298
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:42,640
Speaker 2: they win every game by like three to six. They're

1299
01:06:42,680 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 2: kind of like the New Seahawks over the last two months.

1300
01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 2: One of the things to watch with the Chiefs those

1301
01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:51,400
Speaker 2: their offensive line is a mess. They have so many injuries.

1302
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:54,200
Speaker 2: I'm not sure the Falcons are the team to really

1303
01:06:54,240 --> 01:06:57,320
Speaker 2: exploit that. Maybe Grady Jarrett can have a big day

1304
01:06:57,360 --> 01:07:00,520
Speaker 2: of the middle and disrupt my homes, but it's really

1305
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 2: hard to disrupt my homes. And yeah, it's uh, it's uh.

1306
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are a really tough team to cap right now.

1307
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:10,560
Speaker 2: Not a few I'm interested in laying ten and a half,

1308
01:07:10,680 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 2: but they could break out at any time against the

1309
01:07:13,760 --> 01:07:15,920
Speaker 2: Falcons team if they were interested in doing so from

1310
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 2: the jump. They want to use this as a playoff

1311
01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:22,640
Speaker 2: warm up, blow out the Falcons and then get two

1312
01:07:22,720 --> 01:07:26,400
Speaker 2: weeks of rest. Could see it, So stay away from me.

1313
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the only thing that kind of scares me

1314
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:31,880
Speaker 4: a little bit about the under because I do show

1315
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:33,800
Speaker 4: a little bit of value on that and I am

1316
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:37,360
Speaker 4: worried for the Falcons. Center Alex Mack, in the concussion

1317
01:07:37,440 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 4: protocol didn't practice Wednesday, could potentially miss the game. So

1318
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:45,640
Speaker 4: if you had no Alex Mack and no Julio, I

1319
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:48,960
Speaker 4: think this line for me would go about eleven and

1320
01:07:49,000 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 4: a half. I have it at ten and a half now,

1321
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:55,040
Speaker 4: so could be some could be some smash spot value

1322
01:07:55,040 --> 01:07:57,120
Speaker 4: on the Chiefs, but yeah, I'm at this point it's

1323
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:58,840
Speaker 4: hard to It's hard to know if they're going to

1324
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 4: come to truly play. They're just gonna have one of

1325
01:08:00,920 --> 01:08:02,800
Speaker 4: those games that they've been having for most of the

1326
01:08:03,200 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 4: last two months where they win but not necessarily volun

1327
01:08:07,200 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 4: teams out of the water the way we know they're

1328
01:08:08,600 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 4: capable of. So probably a stay away. But check the

1329
01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:16,880
Speaker 4: Action Network app if you know things may change. Philadelphia Dallas,

1330
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 4: This one got a little interesting. Dallas gets a win

1331
01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:26,479
Speaker 4: against San Francisco. Philadelphia. They who's a narrow in Arizona here,

1332
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:29,560
Speaker 4: So you know, this could still have some implications for

1333
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,639
Speaker 4: the division depending on what happens with Washington and the Giants.

1334
01:08:32,720 --> 01:08:36,519
Speaker 4: But Philadelphia two and a half point favorites in Jerry World.

1335
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:38,080
Speaker 4: The total forty nine and a half.

1336
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:41,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's over nothing on the total. The

1337
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:45,240
Speaker 2: Eagles secondary is a mess. Darius slid Stone concussion protocol,

1338
01:08:45,280 --> 01:08:47,560
Speaker 2: we don't know with him yet. They already lost a

1339
01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:51,480
Speaker 2: bunch of guys that are out for multiple weeks. Mcleoud Baddics.

1340
01:08:52,080 --> 01:08:54,320
Speaker 2: Then the secondary is a mess. The Cardinals average like

1341
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:56,679
Speaker 2: eight yards per play last week. I think that the Eagles.

1342
01:08:56,720 --> 01:09:00,360
Speaker 2: The Eagles offense is clearly better with Jalen Hurts from

1343
01:09:00,360 --> 01:09:02,400
Speaker 2: what Wentz was doing, but Hurts has played well. He

1344
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:05,640
Speaker 2: gives them a dual threat as well, so I think

1345
01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:08,080
Speaker 2: they're off. It's a lot of success against the Cowboys defense,

1346
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 2: but I don't see why the Cowboys can't keep up here,

1347
01:09:11,680 --> 01:09:14,519
Speaker 2: So I think there's a little bit of value in

1348
01:09:14,960 --> 01:09:17,640
Speaker 2: the Cowboys. It seems like everyone wants to bet it

1349
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,160
Speaker 2: hurts now, So if this gets the three, I'd take

1350
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:22,240
Speaker 2: the Cowboys. Maybe it gets the three and a half.

1351
01:09:22,520 --> 01:09:24,240
Speaker 2: If not, I think it's a good teaser. Cowboys are

1352
01:09:24,240 --> 01:09:29,600
Speaker 2: a good teaser piece, and this is a potential overlook

1353
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:35,320
Speaker 2: with the state of both defenses. And yeah, that's all

1354
01:09:35,360 --> 01:09:37,520
Speaker 2: I got here. I can't believe this game has playoff implications.

1355
01:09:37,560 --> 01:09:40,719
Speaker 2: They're four and nine and one versus five and nine Cowboys,

1356
01:09:40,960 --> 01:09:42,960
Speaker 2: good teaser piece. If you want to tease them with

1357
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:44,840
Speaker 2: like the Panthers, wait to see where that line goes.

1358
01:09:45,240 --> 01:09:47,800
Speaker 2: I might do that, but I might wait first to

1359
01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:49,240
Speaker 2: see if this line gets the three to three and

1360
01:09:49,280 --> 01:09:51,000
Speaker 2: a half. With all the phill It seems like there's

1361
01:09:51,000 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 2: not a Philly love now, so yeah, I make it

1362
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:54,960
Speaker 2: closer to one.

1363
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:57,800
Speaker 4: I'm pretty awoy with the market. I have it at

1364
01:09:57,800 --> 01:10:00,720
Speaker 4: two and a half. I know the the Eagles are

1365
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 4: going through some things on defense. They lose McLoud Slay

1366
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 4: did practicing FO so it looks like he's out of

1367
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:10,439
Speaker 4: the protocol, not listed on the injury report, so he'll

1368
01:10:10,479 --> 01:10:13,800
Speaker 4: be back. That is going to be helpful, obviously, just

1369
01:10:13,840 --> 01:10:17,080
Speaker 4: because they need bodies period in that secondary. But I'm

1370
01:10:17,080 --> 01:10:19,000
Speaker 4: a going to worry about the Cowboys. You kind of

1371
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:21,760
Speaker 4: alluded to it. They got out gain massively last week

1372
01:10:21,800 --> 01:10:24,560
Speaker 4: by the forty nine ers, even with Nick Bowens and c. J.

1373
01:10:24,760 --> 01:10:28,639
Speaker 4: Bessard and no Kittle the no debo, the Niners out

1374
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:32,360
Speaker 4: gained the Cowboys four fifty eight to two ninety one,

1375
01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:36,280
Speaker 4: and I think that is somewhat significant. Lukanti Eagles. In

1376
01:10:36,280 --> 01:10:38,840
Speaker 4: the two games Jalen Hurts has started, They've gained four

1377
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:42,599
Speaker 4: hundred and thirteen total yards against the Saints, who ranked

1378
01:10:42,680 --> 01:10:45,360
Speaker 4: number two in defensive DVOA at the time, and then

1379
01:10:45,800 --> 01:10:50,160
Speaker 4: they gained four hundred and twenty two yards against the Cardinals.

1380
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:53,120
Speaker 4: Now they give up five hundred and twenty six. So yeah,

1381
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:57,040
Speaker 4: I think this is definitely an over nothing game from

1382
01:10:57,080 --> 01:10:59,120
Speaker 4: the total perspective of forty nine and a half. But

1383
01:10:59,760 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 4: the Eagles now are a real threat to put up

1384
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:05,719
Speaker 4: four hundred plus yards of offense, and I just don't

1385
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:09,960
Speaker 4: know if Dallas is going to be able to get there. So,

1386
01:11:10,640 --> 01:11:13,639
Speaker 4: you know, Dallas, could they benefit from turnovers, could Hurts,

1387
01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:15,799
Speaker 4: you know, have like one of his vomit games. Finally,

1388
01:11:15,840 --> 01:11:17,760
Speaker 4: you know, he's started about as hot as you could

1389
01:11:18,160 --> 01:11:20,880
Speaker 4: have imagined for a quarterback, especially with his skill set.

1390
01:11:21,360 --> 01:11:25,559
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'd be scared to you know, probably I'd

1391
01:11:25,560 --> 01:11:27,360
Speaker 4: be scared to bet the Cowboys straight up. Even at

1392
01:11:27,400 --> 01:11:30,080
Speaker 4: the at plus three, I think I would only tease them,

1393
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:32,120
Speaker 4: but after two and a half, I would gun in

1394
01:11:32,200 --> 01:11:34,559
Speaker 4: my head, I would actually read Eagles the.

1395
01:11:34,640 --> 01:11:38,080
Speaker 2: More important news for Ravens futures holders. I know I've

1396
01:11:38,240 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 2: said to bet the Ravens Raiders win or Steelers win

1397
01:11:43,600 --> 01:11:45,320
Speaker 2: this weekend, and then all we need to do is

1398
01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:49,479
Speaker 2: win out. And there is still a hilarious scenario where

1399
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:51,479
Speaker 2: Brown Steelers could be for the division next week and

1400
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:53,560
Speaker 2: if the Browns win, they win the division and the

1401
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:56,200
Speaker 2: Ravens are out. If the Steelers win. The Browns are

1402
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:59,240
Speaker 2: out with eleven wins, so I'd rather talk about that

1403
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:02,479
Speaker 2: than the NFC, but just keep that a bud.

1404
01:12:09,280 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 4: The Cardinals are five point favorites over the Niners at home.

1405
01:12:14,040 --> 01:12:15,519
Speaker 4: I know you like the Niners in this spot.

1406
01:12:15,800 --> 01:12:17,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mentioned earlier. I think that there's some value

1407
01:12:17,680 --> 01:12:20,000
Speaker 2: in the Niners. They're getting. They're healthier at corner. I

1408
01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:22,519
Speaker 2: know Sherman might not play, but last week they got

1409
01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:25,800
Speaker 2: Williams and Moseley back and Burrett who's been playing really well.

1410
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:28,439
Speaker 2: He was out last week with an illness. He's practiced

1411
01:12:28,439 --> 01:12:31,120
Speaker 2: again today, so that'll help. But they've been a lot

1412
01:12:31,120 --> 01:12:33,519
Speaker 2: of games where they've used practice squad guys at corner.

1413
01:12:33,800 --> 01:12:37,479
Speaker 2: When they've had healthy corners, their defense has played pretty well.

1414
01:12:37,760 --> 01:12:40,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, looks like Cale was on track to play. The

1415
01:12:40,320 --> 01:12:43,320
Speaker 4: Niners have actually out gained four even though they're one

1416
01:12:43,400 --> 01:12:46,799
Speaker 4: in four. In their last five games, they've outgained the opponent.

1417
01:12:47,120 --> 01:12:50,000
Speaker 4: In four of the last five, they outgained the Saints.

1418
01:12:50,000 --> 01:12:52,679
Speaker 2: That's just running really bad in turnovers, so that could change.

1419
01:12:53,000 --> 01:12:55,120
Speaker 4: Yeah. The Saints two eighty one to two thirty seven,

1420
01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:59,320
Speaker 4: the Rams three forty five to three oh eight, and

1421
01:12:59,360 --> 01:13:00,960
Speaker 4: then they get out gamed by the Bills, who are

1422
01:13:01,120 --> 01:13:05,000
Speaker 4: just on a roll. Then they outgained the Washington football

1423
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:07,760
Speaker 4: team three forty four to one ninety three and the

1424
01:13:07,840 --> 01:13:11,160
Speaker 4: Cowboys four fifty eight to two ninety one, and they

1425
01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:14,320
Speaker 4: lose both of those games by by eight points each.

1426
01:13:14,479 --> 01:13:16,479
Speaker 4: So this is a team that could definitely rebound. I

1427
01:13:16,640 --> 01:13:19,240
Speaker 4: just you know, a little bit of worry about you know,

1428
01:13:19,360 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 4: Cardinals can also, you know, they gain five hundred and

1429
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:23,719
Speaker 4: twenty six yards, so they could easily win by a touchdown.

1430
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:26,400
Speaker 4: But from a value perspective, I make this line three

1431
01:13:26,439 --> 01:13:30,000
Speaker 4: and a half assuming Sherman is in. If he is out,

1432
01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:33,519
Speaker 4: I would go to probably about four and somewhere in

1433
01:13:33,560 --> 01:13:34,920
Speaker 4: the four and a half four to four and a

1434
01:13:34,960 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 4: half range, so still slight value. But if this one

1435
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:41,760
Speaker 4: gets up to six, then I think it would be

1436
01:13:42,120 --> 01:13:45,679
Speaker 4: within striking distance. Now let's get into our survivor pool.

1437
01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:48,200
Speaker 4: Pick it a week one peck.

1438
01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:54,360
Speaker 6: One chance to advance survivor.

1439
01:13:55,760 --> 01:13:58,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going Saints playoff for revenge. I think they

1440
01:13:58,520 --> 01:14:00,640
Speaker 2: get to win. Yeah, So give me to Orleans, who

1441
01:14:00,680 --> 01:14:03,160
Speaker 2: I haven't used yet and I and.

1442
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:06,840
Speaker 4: I will go with the Chicago Bears going against the

1443
01:14:07,640 --> 01:14:11,759
Speaker 4: one win Jacksonville Jaguars picking against him on the spread.

1444
01:14:11,840 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 4: But you know, if you're still alive and a survivor

1445
01:14:14,479 --> 01:14:16,880
Speaker 4: and you have the Bears, perfect time to use them.

1446
01:14:17,120 --> 01:14:19,880
Speaker 4: So let's go with the Bears here. That does it

1447
01:14:20,040 --> 01:14:25,400
Speaker 4: for the week sixteen Action Network NFL Betting Podcast Again,

1448
01:14:26,120 --> 01:14:28,800
Speaker 4: be sure to check out our whole podcast lineup. We

1449
01:14:28,880 --> 01:14:31,840
Speaker 4: got NBA shows. The Fantasy Flex episode is out. If

1450
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:35,360
Speaker 4: you're still in the Championships Stuck in Colin, We'll have

1451
01:14:35,640 --> 01:14:39,840
Speaker 4: the Monday night football breakdown on the next show, and

1452
01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:44,760
Speaker 4: we wish you a happy Holidays and best of luck

1453
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:49,439
Speaker 4: this week. Follow Stuck on Twitter at Stucky two, following

1454
01:14:49,439 --> 01:14:52,160
Speaker 4: them the Action Network app at the same handle. You

1455
01:14:52,240 --> 01:14:55,760
Speaker 4: can follow me on both at Chris Raybon good luck

1456
01:14:55,800 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 4: and let's get this money Happy hourdays Every Christmas. Baith

1457
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:12,840
Speaker 4: Ma sure din't treating men? Marry Christmas. Mains Bay shouldn't

1458
01:15:12,920 --> 01:15:13,599
Speaker 4: treat men.

1459
01:15:18,479 --> 01:15:20,719
Speaker 2: He brought me up down on the ring for Christmas.

1460
01:15:21,400 --> 01:15:28,479
Speaker 4: You feel like I'm in there or die? I feel

1461
01:15:28,640 --> 01:15:33,519
Speaker 4: mighty mind yo, I got musing on my ready joy