1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: that Bloomberg dot com. Do you feel good about yourself 8 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 1: because you're drinking water instead of soda? Be wary of 9 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: that water? Are joining us now? Is that? Seek all? 10 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: He is author and active as member of the Council 11 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: of Foreign Relations. Do what I guess here at our 12 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: interactive broker studio is he is the author of a 13 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: new book, Troubled Water, What's Wrong with What We Drink? 14 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about the book and 15 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 1: about the sort of larger concept here. And you said 16 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: right before we went on air, I'm not here to 17 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: scare anybody. And yet when I was reading through your materials, Uh, 18 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: it's a little bit unnerving to think that a lot 19 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: of the water that people drink, it's not just flint Michigan, 20 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 1: is contaminated. It's correct almost everywhere in America, there are 21 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: contaminants in our drinking water, and this is probably the 22 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: largest unspoken of public health threat or menace in the 23 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: United States. There's a large number of different chemicals that 24 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: get into our systems through our drinking water that are 25 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: having unknown effects on our bodies, on our endocrin systems, 26 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: as the technical phrase that affects growth, attention, spans, sexual interest, fertility, 27 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 1: as well as the possibility of cancer. Some of those 28 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: things are already proven scientifically and some are now in 29 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: the process of being investigated. But I would argue that 30 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: not being investigated aggressively enough by the e p A 31 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: an organization that whether it's a Democratic or Republican president 32 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: or Congress, is unfortunately inactive. We're not active enough in 33 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: pursuing what we need to have pursued to get the 34 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 1: best health profile for all Americans. All Right, So if 35 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: you don't have the best water, what needs to change 36 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: within the US to improve the quality of our water. Well, 37 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: first of all, there aren't nearly There are about a 38 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: hundred thousand chemicals that are in commerce in the United States, 39 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: maybe even more, and you would think that the would 40 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: be under some type of investigation or regulation by the 41 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: PA because some significant percentage of them get into our 42 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: drinking water and some percentage of those have effect on 43 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: our health. But of that hundred thousand chemicals that are 44 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: in commerce the United States, sounds hard to believe this, 45 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 1: but it's true, only seventy seven zero are being regulated 46 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: by the e p A for drinking water purposes. And 47 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: as shocking as that low number is, even more shocking 48 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: given how much chemicals is used in daily life in America. 49 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: Even more shocking is the fact that the last time 50 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: the e p A regulated any chemical whatsoever or any 51 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: contaminant whatsoever, was twenty three years ago. They have been 52 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: inactive for generation and longer, and that is putting our 53 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: health at risk. Is there any map of where we 54 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: can and can drink water? Well, tell me who you 55 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: live and I'll let you know. Okay, I'll give you 56 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: my address after this. Seriously, it's anyone tracking or sort 57 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: of trying to do this scientifically. Well. Actually, there's an 58 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 1: organization called the Environmental Working Group where on their website 59 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 1: you can punch in your zip code and they can 60 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,519 Speaker 1: tell you, under the federally filed documents by each hility, 61 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: what contaminants have been found in that ZIP codes water. 62 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: Whether or not that's particularly to your particular tap, Lisa, 63 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: I can't say for sure, but invite me over for 64 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: lunch and I'll bring my testing you. All right, So, 65 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: water filtration plans, I thought that was the answer. Yeah, 66 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: you would think so. The problem the problem POLL is 67 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: that both on the wastewater side and on the water filtration, 68 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: which is the where they distribute the water to our 69 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: homes from, on both sides, we're using technologies that are 70 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: about a hundred or more years old. And although in 71 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: the interim places have been rebuilt and they're pretty and 72 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: they're nice parking lots and beautiful reception areas, the truth 73 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: is that the technology is being used never grew up 74 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: along with the time that America became what will call 75 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: highly medicalized society, where now one of where seventy of 76 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: all Americans twelve and overtake at least one pharmaceutical product 77 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: to day. Um people people about Americans twelve and overtake 78 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: five or more prescription pills a day, and that all 79 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: gets into our water a stream. On the inbound side, 80 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: we still do we did a hundred plus years ago 81 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: to get rid of cholera and dysentery and typhoid fever. 82 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: We put a dot of chlorine or chlorine like product 83 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: in it to to cleanse the water, but we don't 84 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: do anything to remove from that water these pharmaceutical residues 85 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: and other chemicals that have found their way into our 86 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: water stream, such that I'll give one example of many 87 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 1: that are in my book Troubled Water, of just one. 88 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 1: A scientist, independent scientists, with no act to grind, went 89 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: ahead in the Great Lakes vast amount of water so 90 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: be diluted like crazy would think. She tested fish and 91 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: all five of the Great Lakes, and in all five 92 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: of the Great Lakes she found in their brains and 93 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: in their organs and their muscle, she found residues of 94 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: of all kinds of psychiatric medicines like solof and Selexa 95 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: and fourteen other medications. Now, if that's going there, that 96 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: water is then being sent back to our homes for 97 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: us to drink, and we are getting that dosage is 98 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: back in micro quantities, and we're getting that in magnified amounts. 99 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: Also for eating the fish. I'm just trying. I'm going 100 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: through the sub extrapolation getting increasingly concerned. I'm just wondering, 101 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: you know, how normal is this with other countries as well? 102 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: I mean, is there just sort of this problem globally 103 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: or is the US particularly bad. The more the more industrialized, 104 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: the more industrialized society is, the more likely you are 105 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: to have these problems. Now, there are some countries, UH, 106 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: particularly Israel and Singapore that have very aggressive systems for 107 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: purifying their water for reasons unrelated to UH necessarily health reasons, 108 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: but really for water scarcity reasons. They have a reason 109 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 1: to do this. And there are some parts of the 110 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: United States, and I talked about in a chapter Orange County, California, 111 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: which has made a decision to basically ignore the e 112 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: p A guidelines, go way above it, and they demonstrate 113 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: the fact that using known technologies at very reasonable prices, 114 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: you can have the safest drinking water possible you can 115 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: of pure water. All you would think that if they 116 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: had Zoloft in the water, Prozac or something, everybody'd be 117 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: a little b happier a little bit exactly. So it's 118 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: seth So private versus public water utilities tell us the 119 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 1: compare and contrast there. Okay, So, so this was a 120 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: piece that I wrote the other day for The Wall 121 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: Street Journal, and I wanna I wanna highlight something that 122 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: is a completely unknown fact in American life. Even when 123 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: I talk to members of Congress and senators, they have 124 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: no idea. This is the case. You would think, rationally speaking, 125 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: fifty states, maybe every state should have at least one 126 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: water utility, maybe two, maybe three. So maybe there should 127 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: be three hundred, four hundred, maybe five. What are utilities? 128 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: United States? Tops? Even though you could say that one 129 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: utility could cover several states, we have in the United 130 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: States over fifty thousand what are utilities? One county, Los 131 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: Angeles County has two hundred separate water utilities. These are 132 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: very tiny. They have no ability to have the financial 133 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: well wherewithal in order to get the financing that they 134 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: need to make sure that they can hire up to 135 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: date up that they can buy up to date technologies, 136 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: hire the most advanced scientists and engineers, and also fix 137 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: their broken infrastructure. Because this is crazy, just real quick, here, 138 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,679 Speaker 1: who has the interest of keeping all of these smaller 139 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: util it is open the utilities, okay, so, but no 140 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 1: one in the public, Lisa, nobody in the public should 141 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: for a second think that this is a good idea, 142 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: and it isn't a good idea. That's why one of 143 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: the main thrust of my book talking about public health 144 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: and water is to say that four big takeaways from 145 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: my book, one of which is we must consolidate our 146 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: drinking water utilities. And by the way, a second point 147 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: that I made in the Journal article is that it 148 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: turns out that about fift of American utilities are in 149 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: private hands, which is invest your own hands, whether they're 150 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: public companies or private companies. Remarkably, digging deep into e 151 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: p A health data, which a couple of professors have done, 152 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: you you learned something remarkable, which is that although you 153 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: would think that public utilities have the public's interests in mind, 154 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: actually there's a much higher incidence of contaminated water in 155 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: public utilities. And the reason for that is because mayors 156 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: want to keep the price of water low and therefore 157 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: they don't get the outcomes you want. Set Segal, thanks 158 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: so much for joining fascinating thing discussion. Set single activist, author, 159 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: member of the Council Foreign Relations, author of Troubled Water, 160 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: What's Wrong with What We Drink? That's coming October one, 161 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: and also author of Let there Be Water Israel Solution 162 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: for water star starved world. I am very interested in that. 163 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: Tom Freedom of New York Times op ed today on 164 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: that topic, using the work of Seth. Very interesting. Time 165 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: to check in with Bloomberg Opinion. We're joined by Pining 166 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: columnist Eric Outunus. He's a senior et F analysts for 167 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence and Eric, when you come in here, typically 168 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 1: we talk about what new cool et F. Vanguard is 169 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 1: launching a little bit different twists. Today Now they're talking 170 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: about getting into the private equity business. What's going on 171 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: one of our favorite ETF issuer. Yeah. I mean, anytime 172 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: you hear Vanguard getting into something, most people shutter, especially 173 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: if you're in that business. But I would say, if 174 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: you're in private equity, don't worry so much. This is 175 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 1: really aimed at the advisory business, wealth management. This is Vanguard. 176 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: That's what they want to disrupt here. So if you 177 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: are an advisor and you want to get bigger clients, 178 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: institutional clients, you need private equity. So this is just 179 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: to sort of round out their other offerings. It's right 180 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: in the press release. It says here part of an 181 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 1: ongoing effort to further expand the suite of products to 182 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: our advisory clients, and Tim Buckley said back in March 183 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: of last year, we have been really he's the CEO, 184 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 1: He's the CEO of Vanguard. To me, this quote is 185 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: really who should be on alert here. We have been 186 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: really pleased with the price competition we have introduced in 187 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 1: the mutual fund sphere. We liked that we have had 188 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: that much of an impact that the area that really 189 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: needs to come down in price is advice. Okay, this 190 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: is this is really a compelling point because my first 191 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: initial uh take on this was this is where the 192 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 1: fees are private equity, and so of course Vanguard's gonna 193 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:51,839 Speaker 1: want to get into private equity, but it's being submanaged 194 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: by somebody else. This isn't necessarily them building out their 195 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: own private equity capacity within the house. This is more 196 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: about what are saying, which is to have a bigger 197 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: suite of offerings to institutions. Is that is that the 198 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 1: right read of this? Yeah, I'm gonna bet there's no 199 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: uh that. There was nothing in the press release about 200 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: the what the cost would be, But I'm gonna bet 201 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: it's going to be on the cheaper side for a 202 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: private equity fund, probably on the expensive side. If you're 203 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: talking et F prices, but Vanguard is not going to 204 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: do anything that's like, you know, too controlled price wise. 205 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: So then granted, the big loser here is the advisory business. 206 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: But does this also start to put pressure on private 207 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: equity fees in a way that we really haven't seen 208 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: until now. It can, and you know, you cannot underestimate Vanguard. 209 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: I was looking at the flows this year. Vanguard takes 210 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: in more than everybody every year, but this year what's 211 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: interesting is Fidelity, black Rock, Schwab, they're all starting to 212 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: catch up to Vanguard. But the reason they're catching up 213 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: is because they've all just copied Vanguard and they offer 214 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,839 Speaker 1: dirt cheap beta. So in a way, Vanguard is responsible 215 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: for the whole enchilada. Now, if they get into private 216 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: equity and they see clients, maybe come over and work 217 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: with them, possible, But I see the price pressure in 218 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,679 Speaker 1: private equity and it talked to Paul Goldberg RP Analysts 219 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: and he's very adamant about this as well. That's not 220 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,199 Speaker 1: gonna come for a while. We think medium long term 221 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: at best. But right now their advisory business is up 222 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: to a hundred and sixty one billion, and it basically 223 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 1: is only a couple of years old, so that's a 224 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: fast growth for that business. And remember they have all 225 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 1: these fund investors who grew up with them and now 226 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: have more complicated life matters. So they've got this natural 227 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: pool of money coming in that they're gonna offer advice on. 228 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: And their fees are low. The highest fee you can 229 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: pay is thirty basis points, but if you have over 230 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: twenty five million, they charge you five. Wow, it's just extraordinary. 231 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: So who are going to be initially kind of the 232 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: customers for this private equities I wouldn't think it would 233 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: be appropriate for every you know, individual investor for example, Uh, institutions, right, 234 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: so you're gonna have to be qualified. So here, I mean, 235 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: here's the quote from the Pressure least many institutional clients 236 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: seek alpha sources not readily available in the public markets. 237 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: This also speaks to a bigger issue, which is, Uh, 238 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: the private equity markets are growing, public equity markets not 239 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: growing as much, and some people estimating that regular fund 240 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: companies are going to have to get into private equity 241 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: to keep up at the times. So who are the 242 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: big advisory firms that should be onnotice? I'd say, well, 243 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 1: all the big ones Meryl ubs uh. And then also 244 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 1: I think r A is to a degree. I think 245 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: the r A business. If you are a specialist and 246 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: your local probably fine. But anyone in the middle middle level, 247 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: we're bigger. I think that's who Vanguard typically takes out 248 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 1: the big guys. How does Vanguard lower the advisory fees here? 249 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: What's their secret sauce? Well, the secret sauce is the 250 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: mutual ownership structure. They're basically designed like a co op, 251 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 1: so their investors are vanguards, not a public company. That's 252 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 1: why not much is known about it. But it's rest 253 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: as Mounvern Pennsylvania private company there. They keep such a 254 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: low profile and yet six point two trillion assets under management. Yeah, 255 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: every time they get new profit in they instead of 256 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 1: you know, doing things with that money, they typically vote 257 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 1: because the fund investors are the shareholders, so of course 258 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: they're going to vote to lower the fees. So for 259 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 1: fifties some years they've been lowering the fees on funds, 260 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: and I'd like to say they they were lowering fees 261 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: before it was cool. Now everybody wants to do it. 262 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: They're already at ten bibs everywhere, so in their mind, 263 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: I think they are much more playing a different game. 264 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: They're not looking for profits, They're looking to just lower 265 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: costs for investors everywhere. So if Fidelity gets UH flows 266 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: offering index mutual funds for two basis points, I think 267 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: Vanguard takes that as a win for them, And I 268 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: think if they can maybe have an effect on private equity, 269 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 1: they'll probably take that as a win as well. But 270 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: I think ultimately, right now their purpose is to build 271 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: out this advisory business called the Personal Advisory Service p 272 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,319 Speaker 1: AS probably the three scariest letters if you're an advisor 273 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:52,719 Speaker 1: right now. Yeah, p AS, Eric Valcinez, thank you so 274 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: much for being with us of Bloomberg Intelligence r et 275 00:13:55,360 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: F grew here. It is a busy time down in Washington, 276 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: d C. What with the State of the Union address 277 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: last night by the president, impeachment wrapping up today in 278 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: the Senate UH, and then the Democratic presidential race well underway. 279 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: Let's get the latest returned to Lonnie Chen. Lonnie is 280 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: a David and Diane Stephie research Fellow WHOEVER Institution, also 281 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: a director of Domestic Public Studies and a lecture in 282 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: the Public Policy program at Stanford University. Based in Stanford, 283 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: Lonnie Thanks so much for joining us. Let's start with 284 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: the State of the Union address last night. What are 285 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: your key takeaways? Well, you know, I thought that the 286 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 1: speech was effective, as you know, the president's sort of 287 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: campaign kickoff in earnest. You know, obviously the President has 288 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: been running for re election, but the speech last night 289 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: was an opportunity for him to articulate what he believes 290 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: the accomplishments of his administration has been. And if you 291 00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: look at the policy he discussed, a lot of it 292 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: was aims squarely at the base of the Republican Party, 293 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: really trying to animate and turn out those voters, which 294 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: is going to be key to the success of his 295 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: reelection campaign. So you saw themes like immigration, cultural issues 296 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: like abortion. These are issues obviously that aren't necessarily aimed 297 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: at swing voters or independent voters, are aimed at Republicans 298 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: and getting that vote out is going to be critical. 299 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: So I thought as a re election campaign speech, the 300 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: President did what he needed to do. Uh And and 301 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: now I think it's up to Democrats to define their 302 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: race and pick a nominee. Lonny, You're an incredible guest 303 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: for us to have today. I'm very glad you're here. 304 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: Given the fact that you've advised the Romney and Rubio 305 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: Republican presidential campaigns, and you've seen the way that the 306 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: sausage is made in a lot of ways. I'm wondering, 307 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: especially as some of the polls come out, the Gallop 308 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: one in particular, showing President Trump with a record high 309 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:55,359 Speaker 1: approval rating, the bifurcation right now, the sort of dispersion 310 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: between the Republicans and the Democrats becoming increasingly sort of 311 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: excuse me, a hard line in their approaches. And I'm wondering, 312 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: from your perspective, do we have a sense of whether 313 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is getting bigger 314 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: in terms of representing overall population in the country. Yeah, 315 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: that's a really good question. I think the Republican Party, 316 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: by and large, the base has consolidated in the Republican Party. 317 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: And what I don't think you're seeing necessarily a whole 318 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: lot of people affiliating with the Republican Party now. I 319 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: think what you are seeing is a lot of people 320 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: who have decided that they'll support President Trump regardless of 321 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: the partisan label. Uh. You know, we oftentimes talk about, 322 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: for example, Midwestern voters in states like Iowa and Michigan 323 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: that voted for President Obama twice, but in voted for 324 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: President Trump. I don't know they would consider themselves Republicans 325 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: or Democrats. I think they might consider themselves Trump voters 326 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: first and foremost on the Democratic party side. I don't 327 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: see their share of the electorate growing, unless you're talking 328 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: about again, because solidating their support in coastal and urban areas. 329 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 1: So I think what's happening is increasingly a phenomenon where 330 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:11,719 Speaker 1: voters are are trying to say that they're independent, and 331 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,439 Speaker 1: we have to really dissect what independent means. That mean 332 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: that they're truly independent in the sense that they could 333 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: vote for a Republican or a Democrat, or does it 334 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: mean that they're independent in a more traditional sense, which 335 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: is that they lean one way or the other and 336 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: are inclined to vote for a Democratic Republican. I tend 337 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: to think we're in an era where people are are 338 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 1: dealigning themselves from political parties, and what that means is 339 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: opportunity for politicians like Trump who are a little bit 340 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 1: out of the box, a little bit Lonnie. So the 341 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: impeachment process wrapping up today, officially at least within the Senate, 342 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: what do you think, if anything, the lasting impact will 343 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 1: be on President Trump, particularly as he heads into reelection mode. Yeah, 344 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 1: I've been saying for a while, I think that this 345 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 1: impeachment saga is going to be a distant memory by 346 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 1: the time we get to October and the fall campaign 347 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: leading into the November elections. I really think that, you know, 348 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: while it's dominating the news now, I think by and large, 349 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: voters are going to be concerned about a whole different 350 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: set of other issues, not not impeachment, by the time 351 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: they go to cast their votes. I think the pocketbook issues, 352 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: jobs in the economy, healthcare, those are going to be 353 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: the important ones that voters are going to turn to. 354 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: So I know the the impeachment saga is difficult to 355 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: to not cover, but the reality is that for most 356 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: voters this is not going to be an issue that 357 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: they particularly care about. Lonnie, Since you've advised both the 358 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio and Romney campaigns, both of those individuals have 359 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: come out against President Trump throughout his presidency, certainly early 360 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 1: on and before he became presidents have their views changed? 361 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 1: I mean sort of among moderate Republicans, are they are 362 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: they more supportive of President Trump now? Well, I think 363 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: Senator Rubio has has been, you know, pretty supportive, particularly 364 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: over the last couple of months or so. I think 365 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 1: he's been supportive on policy. I think with respect of 366 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: this impeachment debate, it's been pretty clear. He's been pretty forceful, 367 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: I think, in arguing that he doesn't believe this is 368 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: a removable offense. And he also, you may recall, voted 369 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: against trying to hear from additional witnesses. So I think 370 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: he's been fairly conventional. He has spoken out against the 371 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 1: president a few times on on some foreign policy issues, 372 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: but by and large, I think he's been he's been 373 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: pretty consistent in supporting the president. Senator Romney, I think, 374 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: has been in a slightly different position, and he's obviously 375 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: been seen as more of a maverick. I think that 376 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: reflects the fact, first of all, that, um, you know, 377 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: Senator Romney has been somebody who comes politically from a 378 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: different kind of constituency. He's got got some more political safety, 379 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: one would argue, than Senator Rubio does in Florida, which 380 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 1: is a swing in your state. And I do think 381 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: that Senator Romney is a different phase of his career. 382 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: Quite frankly, Um, you know, he's been the nominee the 383 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,479 Speaker 1: Republican Party, he's been somebody who's been an elder statesman 384 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: in the Republican Party for a while. Um, I think 385 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: he's had the latitude in the freedom to frankly speak 386 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: his mind or but this is this is a this 387 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: is a compelling point. He's more in a position to 388 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: speak his mind. Do other Republicans feel similarly to him 389 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: when they're not speaking in public? Yeah, Well that's the 390 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: that's the key, uh modifier there, lisays when they're not 391 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: in public. I think a lot of Republicans privately, are 392 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: are you not happy with the president's behavior on the 393 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,120 Speaker 1: Ukraine situation? They would say that privately, but publicly they haven't. 394 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: They haven't stood out and said that because they fear 395 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 1: the repercussions and or they believe that the way the 396 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 1: Republican Party is now, there would be electoral consequences to 397 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 1: speaking out against presidents. So yeah, there definitely is this 398 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: dichotomy between private and public. Lonnie, just real quickly thirty seconds. 399 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: How do you handicap the democratic field? We had that 400 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: Debacco in the Iowa caucus is just right now? How 401 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: do you handicap that field? I think it's going to 402 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 1: consolidate to you know, one progressive and one moderate. I 403 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 1: see probably Bernie standards as the inside track on the 404 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: progressive side. On the moderate side, it's tough to tell. 405 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: Pete Bota did well in Iowa, but it remains to 406 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: be seen if he can win in diverse states. And 407 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: I think the biggest beneficiary from last night might actually 408 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: be Mike Bloomberg because of the opportunity he has going 409 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: forward to compete and really the only person with the 410 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: resources to compete once we get the Super Tuesday, which 411 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: is a big hall of delegates, which is at the 412 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: end of the day, what matters. Lonnie Chen, thank you 413 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Lonnie Chen is the 414 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 1: David and Diane Stephy Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, 415 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: also Director of Domestic Policy Studies and lecturer in the 416 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 1: Public Policy Program at Stanford University. We should say Mike 417 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, 418 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 1: which owns this radio station. Just as a disclaimer, and 419 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 1: we will continue to follow what happens with respect to 420 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 1: the ongoing elections. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pen 421 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: L podcast. 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