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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action boss.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go throwing in so I'm sitting up to

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Speaker 2: cash stop.

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Speaker 1: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kaba you want to be and we are way.

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Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Chris Raybond, and this is our NFL wild

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Speaker 1: Card Weekend betting preview. Today we're gonna build our wild

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Speaker 1: Card Weekend six pack of against the spread bets. Some

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Speaker 1: totals in there as well, But that was my co host,

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister Degenerate Nation Stucky coming off a perfect week.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations brother. How you doing going on?

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Speaker 2: Brother? Uh? Yeah, I said last week, I gotta win

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Speaker 2: the rest of the bets on this podcast. That's the

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Speaker 2: way to make this good season. So hopefully I gonna

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Speaker 2: have a couple more sweeps. But yeah, snowed in here.

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Speaker 2: I know that you're dealing with the opposite of snow

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Speaker 2: out West. My thoughts with anyone dealing with any of

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Speaker 2: the downfall from just a horrific situation in southern California

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Speaker 2: with the fires. How you're you're all good and safe?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm all good. Appreciated. Brother did have to momentarily

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Speaker 1: e back a night ago. But everything's all good now.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, it's it's it's rough out there, but uh,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be Uh. You asked about that Rams game.

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Speaker 1: I think that game. I think it should be fine.

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Speaker 2: Obviously pales like the impact of the fires, but I

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Speaker 2: was just curious if like doesn't have any couldn't have

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Speaker 2: any impact on like travel, if they moved the game

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Speaker 2: or I really.

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Speaker 1: Doubt it, just because it's you know, the stadium is

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Speaker 1: so inland and these fires are kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: on a perimeter, you know, along the you know, in

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Speaker 1: the in the woods and whatnot. So I think it'll

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Speaker 1: be straight, but who knows. I mean, you're out. You're

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Speaker 1: talking about wind, so wind and fire, which is very unpredictable.

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Speaker 1: But enough of this fire tug. Let's get into some

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Speaker 1: fire bets.

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Speaker 2: Thirsty for actions, Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Week eighteen five and one on a six pack

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Speaker 1: for us. Uh. The only loss was that Kansas City

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Speaker 1: shut out, uh, making it a race stuck another sweep.

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Speaker 1: You're I mean you could overtake me if I go

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Speaker 1: over uh this week, you are up first in the

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Speaker 1: six packs? Where you going?

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Speaker 2: All right? For my first pick of the wild Card

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Speaker 2: Weekend Sunday six pack, let me say that again. For

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Speaker 2: my first pick of the wild Card Weekend six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Green Bay Packers plus three in

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Speaker 2: the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Out there, if you shop hard enough, you can find

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Speaker 2: minus one twelve. But minus one fifteen is fine for

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Speaker 2: what it's worth. Historically Wildcard Weekend, at least in recent issuy,

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Speaker 2: it's been an underdog round. Dogs in the playoffs. We'll

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Speaker 2: see it's been a favorite year, but we'll see if

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Speaker 2: that script flips in the playoffs. But dogs in the

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Speaker 2: wild Card round since twenty seventeen, twenty four and twelve

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Speaker 2: against the spread. But I do show a little bit

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Speaker 2: of value in this number with the Packers for the

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Speaker 2: full game. Now, the Packers, to me, they are a

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Speaker 2: bit of an enigma. You know. After that game against Seattle,

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Speaker 2: I said, man, this team, this is a top five

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Speaker 2: team in the NFL. And then they end the season

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Speaker 2: with a bit of a whimper. They disappointing effort. Another

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Speaker 2: score was close, but against the Minnesota Vikings and how

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Speaker 2: they came out there. I thought the Vikings had a

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Speaker 2: pretty good game plan. They caught them off guard, and

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Speaker 2: then they lose to the Bears to close out the

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Speaker 2: regular season. When they stepped up in class outside and

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Speaker 2: by the way, they yeah, they were in one of

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Speaker 2: the toughest divisions, if not the toughest, in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: so they had one of the toughest schedules in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: whereas the Eagles had one of the easiest schedules in

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Speaker 2: the NFL, which is something worth noting. But the Packers

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Speaker 2: were also a block field go away from going zero

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Speaker 2: to six in the division. When they did step up

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Speaker 2: outside of their division against playoff teams, they did win both,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't the prettiest efforts. They beat the Rams

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Speaker 2: and the Texans by combined seven points, and both those

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Speaker 2: teams are missing like key weapons on offense. But I

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Speaker 2: still adjusting for opponent, I still have this team is

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Speaker 2: fringe top five in the NFL, and there's still questions

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Speaker 2: here because Christian Watson is out and they're exposed to

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Speaker 2: play right falls off a cliff without him, even they're

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Speaker 2: rushing numbers fall off without him because he just opens

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Speaker 2: up so much. The Reid is gonna have to step

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Speaker 2: up over the middle of the field with those deep crossers.

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Speaker 2: Doves is gonna have to step up, and Jordan Love

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Speaker 2: is gonna have to be efficient throwing the ball here

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Speaker 2: against this Eagles defense, which is real. I mean, they're

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Speaker 2: number one in the NFL pretty much across the board.

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Speaker 2: Since that week seven ish following their by they've been dominant.

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Speaker 2: Schedule has been soft, but look at the Sinci look

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Speaker 2: at the Ravens game, which have to give you confidence

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Speaker 2: that this Eagles defense is for real. So Love's gonna

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Speaker 2: have to be on game. You get the good Jordan Love,

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Speaker 2: the bad Jordan Love. I don't know, but I show

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Speaker 2: too much value in this number to not take plus

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Speaker 2: three first half. And the reason that I like I

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Speaker 2: prefer first half is number one. The Eagles have been

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Speaker 2: slow starters all year long. They average three point six

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Speaker 2: points in the first quarter, that's twenty first in the league,

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Speaker 2: twelve point four in the first half, that's thirteenth in

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Speaker 2: the league. And then if you look at their second

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Speaker 2: half numbers, their top five, averaging about fourteen point eight

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Speaker 2: points per game. Meanwhile, the Packers averaged six point four

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Speaker 2: and thirteen point six in the first quarter in first half, respectively.

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Speaker 2: That's fourth and sixth in the NFL, so they're a

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Speaker 2: bit faster of starters. To frame it another way, Eagles

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Speaker 2: from an EPA perspective, their first two drives at the

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Speaker 2: game bottom three EPA per drive, the rest of the

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Speaker 2: way top three offense after the first two drives. That's

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Speaker 2: even more important in this game because these are two

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Speaker 2: of the most run heavy offenses in the entire league,

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Speaker 2: So this could be a game with fewer possessions, especially

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Speaker 2: just in one half, which makes that getting plus three

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Speaker 2: even more valuable if the Eagles do come out and

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Speaker 2: start slow. On top of that, the floor I expect

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Speaker 2: him to have a really good script which will help

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Speaker 2: Green Bay and Jalen Hurts. I expect him the play.

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Speaker 2: But will there be a bit of a dip inefficiency

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Speaker 2: after coming back from the concussion. I know it's going

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Speaker 2: to be about twenty days, but some day to suggest

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Speaker 2: that there will be and will there just be some

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Speaker 2: rust early on and off? This Eagles offense has all

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Speaker 2: the pieces to be great right, the receivers, great offensive line,

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Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley historic season. But if you adjust for our

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Speaker 2: opponent running rushing offense, obviously Barkley was great, the passing

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Speaker 2: offense was kind of mediocre. Part of that is because

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Speaker 2: Herts is just holding the ball way too long. He's

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Speaker 2: being indecisive, which is leading to I mean, twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent of his dropbacks lead to either a sack, a throwaway,

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Speaker 2: or scramble, which leads the league. It's the highest rate

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Speaker 2: in the league. And you might look at his touchdown

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Speaker 2: to interception ratio numbers and say, oh, he's had a

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Speaker 2: really good year, But man, if you look at his

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Speaker 2: big time throws to turn over worthy plays, he's been

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Speaker 2: a bit fortunate. And this is a green Bay defense

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Speaker 2: that has lived off of turnovers. I wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 2: if Hertz makes a mistake or two. This is a

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Speaker 2: rematch of a game earlier this season, in Week one,

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Speaker 2: where we saw Herts make a couple of those critical mistakes.

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Speaker 2: I don't take too much in that game a Week

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Speaker 2: one there was two new defensive coordinators on badfield conditions.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I like plus three year. My worry for

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Speaker 2: green Bay in the full game is right after the

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Speaker 2: Eagles kind of shake that rust off. We've seen how

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Speaker 2: good this offense can be as the game progresses. My

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Speaker 2: worry would be the Packer secondary not being able to

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Speaker 2: hold up, although a good thing is Hurtz doesn't really

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Speaker 2: throw over the middle of the field, which is where

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Speaker 2: the Packers have been super vulnerable because their linebackers aren't great.

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Speaker 2: But without jay r Alexander's out for the year. When

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Speaker 2: he was off the field this year, Green Bay allowed

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Speaker 2: a seventy one percent completion percentage ninety six passer rating.

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Speaker 2: With him sixty one percent completion percentage seventy seven passer rating,

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Speaker 2: they were so much better. Their corners are very vulnerable,

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Speaker 2: so I would worry about just like even if the

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Speaker 2: Eagles had to play a bit from behind, they shouldn't

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Speaker 2: be too worried. And then the Eagles are just such

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Speaker 2: good front runners and the second act put together those

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Speaker 2: just methodical eight to ten minute just clock killing, momentum killing,

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Speaker 2: just soul sucking drives. That's what I would be a

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Speaker 2: bit concerned about with the Packers in the second half.

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Speaker 2: But uh yeah, give me the three in the first half.

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Speaker 2: I think stent you another slow star for Philly. Hurts

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Speaker 2: might be, you know, a little rusty here, and I

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Speaker 2: expect a good script and not that many possessions in

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Speaker 2: the first half. Give me the pack first half post

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Speaker 2: threebout your thoughts there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought about the first half under for this

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Speaker 1: one for kind of the same reasons. It's interesting though

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Speaker 1: that the full game is four and a half, and

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Speaker 1: you know, the market is kind of coming in on

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, you know, in the first half, especially considering

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Speaker 1: they are the kind of a they have been a

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Speaker 1: slow starting team. I guess the one concern if you're

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Speaker 1: looking at it from you know, the you know, the

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Speaker 1: Packers side in the first half is it can kind

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Speaker 1: of come down to who gets the ball first, kind

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Speaker 1: of variance thing. If there's limited possessions, you might just

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Speaker 1: not have enough, like you don't each team might only

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Speaker 1: have you know, two, three possessions in the first half

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Speaker 1: if both of these teams run the way they have

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Speaker 1: been early in the game. So there's some variants there.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know what are your thoughts on just

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Speaker 1: why the first half is priced higher for the Eagles

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Speaker 1: considering their season long numbers and the Packers season long

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Speaker 1: numbers because you would kind of.

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Speaker 2: I think it eventually. I do think it will eventually

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Speaker 2: come down everywhere. You're starting to see it already, So

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Speaker 2: I think that the it'll close to two and a half.

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Speaker 2: And for what it's worth, matvil Floor has been great

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Speaker 2: as an underdog, fifteen and four against spread as underdog

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Speaker 2: with three or more points, and he's twenty seven and

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Speaker 2: twelve straight up in same season revenge spots. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think the Packers have a really good shot here.

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Speaker 2: It's going to come down to Love and how he plays.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna lead on Jacobs a bit, but in order

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Speaker 2: to eventually win this game, he's going to have to

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Speaker 2: throw the ball efficiently, and he's going to have to

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Speaker 2: without the explosive play threat of Watson. We need good

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love here, which is it's a big unknown, but

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Speaker 2: I think there's value in this number. And yeah, I

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Speaker 2: like Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's there's there's a lot of uncertainty

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Speaker 1: too with I mean, is is well of one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent healthy too? That's another question mark I.

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Speaker 2: Am assuming, so like I think it was just like

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Speaker 2: a I think he literally just like was like a

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Speaker 2: bruise on his elbow that the one of the reasons

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Speaker 2: why I believe that is like he was about to

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Speaker 2: go back in the game. But yeah, but I think

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Speaker 2: that they were just like, all right, who cares, Like,

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Speaker 2: let's not risk anything. We already have you out. But

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Speaker 2: the fact that he was throwing and looked fine, and

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Speaker 2: I know a couple of people who have given me

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Speaker 2: some insight there or said he's gonna be fine, But

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Speaker 2: that's certainly worth noting.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate the first half because I do

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Speaker 1: think it's a little tilted. You know, the number is

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Speaker 1: tilted in the opposite direction. I I do see the

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Speaker 1: Eagles winning this game, and probably by more than four

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Speaker 1: and a half. From my first pick in the second

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Speaker 1: overall of the wild card six pack, I'm going with

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Speaker 1: the Texans. Chargers under forty three, can still find a

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Speaker 1: forty three out there. Try to get to forty three.

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Speaker 1: That is a key number. But I think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a very low scoring game. You have

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Speaker 1: on one side the use of Texans, who it's just

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Speaker 1: Nico Collins and Joe Mixon. And the thing I like

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Speaker 1: about this matchup is the Texans I think are going

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Speaker 1: to come out and try to run the ball and

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Speaker 1: sometimes you know, they at times undersloke. They've actually done

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Speaker 1: that too much, But this year they've kind of tilted

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Speaker 1: a little too much toward early down passing. I think,

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Speaker 1: especially once all their receivers went down. They're trying to

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Speaker 1: stay ahead of the change. But I mean they're just

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Speaker 1: allowing so much pressure that you are going to want

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Speaker 1: to run the ball. The Chargers have been shakier versus

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Speaker 1: the run this year, So I think Houston will have

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Speaker 1: some success and you know, be able to kind of

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Speaker 1: choose some quack and keep the ball for longer than

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Speaker 1: they've had in the past. And on the other side,

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Speaker 1: I think the Chargers are in a spot where they're

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Speaker 1: facing this Texan defense and I know, you know, Ward

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Speaker 1: and Petrie are out at safety. That is big. But

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Speaker 1: you know, they have been like those guys have been

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Speaker 1: playing in a slot and whatnot. They still have their

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Speaker 1: you know, guys that have been deep and play action.

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Speaker 1: They've been really good against play action. The Chargers are

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Speaker 1: forced in play action rate. They've been using play action

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Speaker 1: a lot this year. Herbert three point four yards per

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Speaker 1: attempt more with play action than without. That's fifth best

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Speaker 1: in the league. Well, Houston defense against play action number

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Speaker 1: one in success rate, number four yards per attempt, number

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Speaker 1: six in EPA per play. If you could take away

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Speaker 1: some of that play action, Houston can also stop the run.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers have the charge. Both of these teams have

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Speaker 1: shown like they they have run inefficiently on early downs,

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Speaker 1: So but I do expect him to kind of run here.

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Speaker 1: It's a playoff game, you know, Chargers, third straight road game. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and really, if you're the Chargers, it's mcconkee. I know

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Speaker 1: Johnston had the big game, but Houston's really good against

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Speaker 1: outside guys, so it's really just McConkie. You know, he's

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Speaker 1: gonna he's gonna do his damage, but that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: over the middle. Quaka is gonna keep running. I think

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Speaker 1: that both of these teams defensively have the upper hand,

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Speaker 1: justin Herbert going up against defenses that don't blitz as much.

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Speaker 1: He is seven point two yards in attempt no blitz

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Speaker 1: versus eight point seven when he's blitzed. And his EPA

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Speaker 1: per play when he's blitzed is about triple his EPA

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Speaker 1: when not blitzed. In Houston, that's one thing they've been

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Speaker 1: getting pressure. They haven't been blitzing their non blitz pressure

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Speaker 1: rate this year twenty seven point three percent, that's seventh

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Speaker 1: in the league. Their run defense their top three in

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Speaker 1: adjusted lineyards, top four in yards against running backs. So

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Speaker 1: I think that the Houston defense has some significant matchup edges.

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Speaker 1: I think the Chargers defense the same. Niko Koins been

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Speaker 1: averaging under ten yards of catch with Dell and Digs

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Speaker 1: off the field, so the explosiveness is just not there

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Speaker 1: for Houston the same way. But I do think they'll

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Speaker 1: be able to run it. Neither of these teams turn

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Speaker 1: the ball over much, so you should get some long

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Speaker 1: drives here. So yeah, give me the under forty three

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Speaker 1: Texans Chargers. And for a long time in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: you had indoor games going over the last five years.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of flipped. You have a postseason indoor games

292
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Speaker 1: in the wildcard ran twelve and six to the Unders.

293
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Speaker 1: So I'm not really worried about that trend. I know

294
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Speaker 1: somebody's probably gonna bring it up, but I just think

295
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Speaker 1: this has all the makings of a defensive battle. The

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Speaker 1: Texans have been bottom five and early down success rate

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Speaker 1: all year, and the Chargers number one in the red zone,

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Speaker 1: so used to no explosiveness. Then they still have to

299
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Speaker 1: punch it in even if they get down the field,

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Speaker 1: and it's just tough to do against the Chargers. But

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Speaker 1: like the way the Texans defense matches up, So give

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Speaker 1: me the under.

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Speaker 2: Well, that'll lead into my pick. It's a natural segue

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Speaker 2: into my second pick. In the third overall of the

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Speaker 2: Wildcard Weekend six pack, I'm going with the Houston Texas

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Speaker 2: plus three minus one fifteen out there. I'd go up

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Speaker 2: to minus one twenty is fine. I also think it'll

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Speaker 2: be a lower scoring game. Three is super valuable in

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Speaker 2: that scenario if it does play out the way that

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Speaker 2: we both think it will. Am I concerned about the Texans?

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Speaker 2: Sure they finished with the plus a dead even point

312
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Speaker 2: differential zero. You mentioned early downs, there were thirty first

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Speaker 2: in success rate on early downs. They're also more likely

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Speaker 2: to turn it over. Herbert just never throws picks historically

315
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Speaker 2: one of the best of all time. And interception rate.

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Speaker 2: The Texans, their offense and how their offensive line handles

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Speaker 2: the Chargers when they do blitz, and I expect them

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Speaker 2: to up their blitz rates here. That does concern me.

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Speaker 2: It's a great matchup as far as the Chargers tackles

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Speaker 2: versus the Texans' defensive ends and edge rushers. On paper,

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Speaker 2: you could say that the Chargers have the horses to

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Speaker 2: control their edge rushers, which would be absolutely massive with

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Speaker 2: Balton Slater. But at the end of the day, the

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Speaker 2: numbers matter. I can't get to this number in any world.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm at like I'm at Chargers under a

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Speaker 2: point favor like I have this closer to a coin flip.

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Speaker 2: I am very so. Do I give you that you're

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Speaker 2: gonna sell a game that I make under one? You're

329
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Speaker 2: gonna give me three in a game with a total

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Speaker 2: of forty three trending down that I think will be

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Speaker 2: low scoring all day long. For what it's worth, home

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Speaker 2: dogs in the playoffs over the past ten years ten

333
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Speaker 2: three and two against the spread. I still have CJ. Stroud,

334
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Speaker 2: who I believe in, still have Nego Collins. I do

335
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Speaker 2: agree that they're gonna be able to run it. I

336
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Speaker 2: think that this defense is still elite. There's been some injuries,

337
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Speaker 2: but I think they'll hold their own ear. I am

338
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Speaker 2: curious to see what they do with their corners. So

339
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Speaker 2: you had Petrie went down, then Ward went down that

340
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Speaker 2: all important slot role. Do they put Lasser there back there, Bryant,

341
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 2: you know played last week but a Kuda was out.

342
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,919
Speaker 2: He's back. So do they put a Couta on the outside?

343
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Speaker 2: Do they put Laster in the slot? And by the way,

344
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Speaker 2: like Lassiter Mconkie Georgia Jewell Georgia rookie matchup some familiarity there,

345
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Speaker 2: which is interesting Miles Brian, he won't kill you there

346
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Speaker 2: at least even okay this year.

347
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Speaker 1: But I mean it's a small sample. So I mean

348
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Speaker 1: last I think has struggled more, but also small sample,

349
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Speaker 1: so even good outside.

350
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like him more on the outside. But yeah,

351
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Speaker 2: so I'm I don't know exactly what they're going to do.

352
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Speaker 2: They might be They're probably gonna try some different things there,

353
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Speaker 2: but that's just something that I'm watched for. But just

354
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Speaker 2: number wise, I have to take the three here. It

355
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Speaker 2: was the first bet that I made this week. And

356
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Speaker 2: like this is also psychologically, I mean, how many times

357
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Speaker 2: have we seen this, not just the NFL but football

358
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Speaker 2: in general. The entire world is just written off the

359
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 2: Texans for dead. Just they have no chance here. I

360
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Speaker 2: mean I projected one. I get all the Texans struggles

361
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 2: under one. The Texans come in, can come in here,

362
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 2: play free, loose. They they're going to play the disrespect

363
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Speaker 2: card all week. Like it's crazy. I've never seen like they're.

364
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Speaker 2: People are giving the Broncos more of a chance. The

365
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Speaker 2: Broncos are nine to one underdog to Josh Allen and

366
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 2: this Chargers team, They're way ahead of the curve. I

367
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Speaker 2: respect Herbert, I respect the staff, but they have the

368
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Speaker 2: lowest strength of victory in the playoffs. They beat one

369
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Speaker 2: playoff team all year, the Broncos. That's it. Here's what

370
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Speaker 2: they beat on the road, the Panthers, the Browns, the Patriots,

371
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Speaker 2: the Raiders, the Falcons, and they were dominated in that game.

372
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Speaker 2: And the Broncos they're one playoff team that they beat.

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Speaker 2: That's it. I so like three. Now give me the

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Speaker 2: Texans plus three, let's go Strop. But I agree with

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Speaker 2: the spring game. Three is super valuable.

376
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Speaker 1: I agree with you on this one. This would have

377
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 1: been one of mine as well, because I think when

378
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 1: you look at these two teams, weite defense, very talented quarterback,

379
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 1: one good receiver. I know Clinton Johnson had the big game,

380
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 1: not going of a good receiver, yet still too early

381
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 1: for that. So yeah, good luck against Stingley, right and

382
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: so it's it's kind of the same team. Texans have

383
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 1: the home field advantage. I mean, Chargers have the coaching edge.

384
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Speaker 1: So but like you said, I make this, yeah, like

385
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Speaker 1: a Chargers a little bit over one and the Markets

386
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Speaker 1: at three. And I feel like that's just you know,

387
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Speaker 1: kind of settleinge.

388
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Speaker 2: Lower scoring, which makes it even more valuable.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean just even if you look at

390
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Speaker 1: it from that more, you know, step back bird's eye

391
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 1: view of just Okay, Texans been sucking all year, they're

392
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 1: easy first round. Kind of like people are looking at

393
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I guess it's like, but these are the

394
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: same team, like talented quarterback, league defense Texans at one,

395
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: good receiver Texans at home. So yeah, I totally agree here.

396
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 1: I think I think this is uh a winnable game

397
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: for the Tech Like just like everyone's kind of looking

398
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: at the Texans like, ah, man, you know that I wish,

399
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: you know, we want to draw them. It's like this

400
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: is a winnable game for the Texans, probably the most

401
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 1: winnable game and matchup they could have had. Uh.

402
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I liked I still like Stroud against zone cover.

403
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 2: Just gonna see a ton of here. The Chargers they're

404
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 2: blitz factors to concern me, but they don't get a

405
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: ton of pressure, which is what has crippled this offense.

406
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Speaker 1: And I do think mix and everyone gets pressure unused

407
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: to let's not let's not get too great like like

408
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,719
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, you know, there's going to be some pressure.

409
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: But that's the thing is, Yeah.

410
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: Like Derwin James coming off the edge scarce, yea scarce,

411
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 2: But I think they're gonna be able to run it

412
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Speaker 2: here too a bit to like sustain drives.

413
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: And you can sack Herbert on the other side so

414
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 1: that that equals it out and if you look at Herbert,

415
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: three sacks are more on Herbert. The Charters offense essentially

416
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: is like a twenty and under type of offense, like

417
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: right there. So yeah, Texas might not even need many points.

418
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: Yeah people would. I think people are just like I mean,

419
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 2: I'm seeing everyone saying the Charters like they're already hits.

420
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 2: They're saying the charge is gonna bet the Chiefs next week,

421
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 2: like they're already skipping ahead to that this game is

422
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 2: over and done with. This is still the NFL. I

423
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 2: know it's been a favorite year, but yeah, don't be

424
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 2: surprised if I'm filling out a bracket, by the way,

425
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 2: like a playoff bracket or like a pick them pool.

426
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: I'm picking the Texans.

427
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, we talk about this, like they have their issues,

428
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 1: but they also have some things going for to Like

429
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 1: they I mean they steymyed Josh Allen. You know, their

430
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: defense Steymy Josh Allen. That was impressive. They still have

431
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 1: one of the most talented quarterbacks in the game, one

432
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: of the best receivers in the game, and in the

433
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: weit defense and that's the thing that they didn't have

434
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 1: last year. Like this defense can kind of get They're

435
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: kind of like, I don't want to say the Steelers

436
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: because Tom Win is in a different so much better

437
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 1: than Demiico, but like they're like if the Steelers defense

438
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: had like a CJ. Stroud that could just pop off

439
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: every once in a while, you know, it's better than

440
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: not totally agree. For my second pick in the fourth

441
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: overall of the wild Card weekend six pack, I'm going

442
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 1: with the Raven Steelers under forty four forty three and

443
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: a half is fine as well. Forty three key number here,

444
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 1: but we had our low scoring game in first matchup.

445
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: We had a high scoring game thirty four to seventeen

446
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: in the second matchup. I think it goes back the

447
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 1: other way. Divisional matchup, third, third matchup between these two

448
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: teams all pretty much coming in the second half of

449
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: the year. If I'm not mistaken, and Jay Flowers for

450
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: the Ravens, it's very iffy. And that's big because Lamar Jackson,

451
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 1: I believe he has something like uh fifty more first

452
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: or eighty more first redthrows to Zay Flowers than any

453
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 1: then like the second highest, which is Mark Andrews. So

454
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: like that just really changes the Ravens offense. If Flowers

455
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: is limited or unavailable for this game, it reduces the explosiveness. Uh,

456
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: it just kind of magnifies that. The Steelers, you know,

457
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: pass rush and the Steeers have always been good at

458
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: defending mobile quarterbacks. They have High Smith, they have what

459
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: they have Hayward, so I expect that front to get

460
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: at them. It's you know, I mean, couldn't be any

461
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 1: more desperate. Four straight losses divisional opponent, so I expect

462
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: a Steelers defensive rebound from that game a few weeks ago,

463
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: and they gave up that game.

464
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 2: Deshaun Elliott and Dante Jackson two of the starters in

465
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: the secondary didn't play. Ogan Joey was also out, Yeah,

466
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 2: and Grad Pickens was out for the Steelers. But then

467
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: Joey Porter went down early, so you were down a

468
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 2: starting safety and your two starting corners and historically has

469
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: struggled against the Steelers defense. They just couldn't cover that.

470
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 2: I mean it was easy Pickens on the outside, as

471
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 2: you would imagine.

472
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 1: They were down there and no prep and no real

473
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 1: prep because it was like a short week Holladay season,

474
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: and you had in game injuries that exacerbated your your

475
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 1: other injuries. So yeah, I totally.

476
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: And they can't run the stuff that they want to

477
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 2: run if Porter's not out there, and he'll be back

478
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 2: this week.

479
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, So the Steelers turning up injury wise in terms

480
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: of you know, the defense Simata versus Lamar and I

481
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 1: mean you pointed out I think. I mean, I'm sure

482
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: everyone's starting to notice now. This Raven defense has really

483
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 1: turned it up, you know. I mean they made some changes.

484
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: What was it like week eleven, They moved Kyle Hamilton around.

485
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 1: He looks like he's going to be fine. I know

486
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: he got hurt, but he did practice Wednesday, So if

487
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,479
Speaker 1: he's back. I mean this, This raven defense has been

488
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: allowing next to nothing against the Texans. They give up nothing,

489
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: shutout against the Browns. What ten points? Okay, fine, but

490
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: they've been holding everybody under twenty since the way we

491
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: double checked that, I think it's yeah, I mean yeah,

492
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: under twenty Yeah, fourteen, seventeen, two, and ten. The four

493
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: games since the buy granted Giants, Steelers, Texans, Browns not

494
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 1: the best competition, but that's what she's supposed to do against.

495
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 2: They also failed to face the Chargers and the Eagles

496
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 2: since week eleven. That's when they made those changes at safeties.

497
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: They they were rotating safeties all year long. They went

498
00:28:56,320 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: to Washington and Hamilton on the back end, Humphrey in

499
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 2: the slot, and that fixed a lot of their issues.

500
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 2: Communication well, number one, just like with the blown assignments,

501
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 2: Hamilton in the back end. Also, the underwraty thing is

502
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: communication wise, they simplified a lot of the things that

503
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: they were doing. They simplified the calls, they simplified how

504
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: they were adjusting pre snap. The call goes in to Roquan,

505
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 2: Roquand basically just communicates to Hamilton and Hamilton make sure

506
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: everyone else is lined up and he has gotten the

507
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: secondary in the right place at the right time, and

508
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 2: then just Washington and him on the back end and

509
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 2: made a world of a difference compared to some of

510
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: the washed vets that they had there earlier this season.

511
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 2: And Humphrey has been amazing in the slot, playing at

512
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,239
Speaker 2: an all pro level. Just to put some numbers to it,

513
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 2: first ten weeks, the Ravens are twenty fifth in scoring,

514
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: twenty seventh in yards. They've led the league in both

515
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 2: since week eleven. They went from thirty second and pass

516
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 2: defense to second thirtieth and expected points per drop back

517
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 2: to first thirty in explosive pass play right the tenth

518
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: and since making that switch at safety over the past

519
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 2: seven games, number one in scoring, number one in yards,

520
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: number one in past number one in yards per play allowed,

521
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 2: number one in EPA per play. So and now, granted

522
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 2: some of the offenses they faced have been underwhelming, but

523
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 2: five of those seven teams did at least make the

524
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 2: playoffs Chargers, Beagles, Steelers, Texans, and then you know, they

525
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 2: got the layups with the Giants and the Browns. Earlier

526
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,959
Speaker 2: in the season, I was saying that they wasn't as

527
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 2: bad as it looked because you looked at some of

528
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: their contested catch rates, they were just getting a bit unlucky.

529
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 2: But there was definite issues at safety, there was miscommunication issues.

530
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 2: So the truth is probably some in the middle. They

531
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 2: probably aren't dominant number one. They probably weren't like the

532
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: worst earlier in the season, but they were very good.

533
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 2: Now they fixed a lot of those issues and Russ

534
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 2: doesn't really throw in the middle of the field, which

535
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: is where I still think you want to attack this team,

536
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: and this Steelers offense is headed in the wrong direction.

537
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: So get I'm sorry for interrupting you.

538
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 1: Oh no, that was great, great analysis. I always love

539
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: your Ravens breakdowns. And yeah, no, I'm I'm in agreement here.

540
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: And some things I noticed is Russell Wilson, you know,

541
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: nice story, and he came on mid season. Yes he's

542
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: the right move over justin Stields. But if you I

543
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: started looking at, okay, like, how are the Steelers going

544
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: to have success on offense against this version of the

545
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: Ravens the defense like, okay, well, you know they're playing

546
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: you know some more single high. Well, Russ is twenty

547
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: sevenths in success rate against single high, thirty third in

548
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 1: success rate against too high, so he has you know,

549
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: a high like some some splits, he has like a

550
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: high EPA or a high yards per attempt. But it's

551
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: all just like feaster, famine, boom or bust. And the

552
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: Ravens that's they've been eliminated that recently. And then you

553
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: look at him. Okay, well the Ravens, you know, they

554
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: they've played a lot of different ways like they've they've

555
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 1: they've kind of mixed it up. They've played single high,

556
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 1: they played too high, they blitzed, they played man uh

557
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: you know right, smack Dad middle seventeenth in man covered great.

558
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: There's really no Russell Wilson split like no blitz twenty

559
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: seventh and success rate blitzed twenty ninth and success right,

560
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: you know, single high twenty seven, too high, thirty third.

561
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: Like there's no real consistency to this offense. And this

562
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: is these numbers are with Pickens and all. But you

563
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: know what those three games, so it's not like we're

564
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: just saying, uh, okay, well we're ignoring the splits without Pickens.

565
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: I mean, you we saw Pickts come back and they

566
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 1: they put up seventeen points on the Cincinnati Bengals defense.

567
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: I know they simplified some things too, but you play

568
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: a nineteen seventeen game with the Bengals, I gotta take

569
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: your under because number one, it's impressive to hold the

570
00:32:55,960 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: Bengals to nineteen and number two, it's just a bit absimal,

571
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: just in a game that you wanted to win, to

572
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: score seventeen points against that Bengals defense and they ain't

573
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: even gained many yards on top of that, Like what

574
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: was their yard? Let's see the Pittsburgh Steers gained one

575
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety three yards against one of the worst

576
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 1: defenses in the league in a game that they wanted

577
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: after losing three straight. That this is where we are

578
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: with the Steelers offense. So yeah, it's Ravens probably cover this,

579
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: But don't love these flowers being out, So I'll go

580
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 1: with the under for now. Love it?

581
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under hear as well, but yet

582
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 2: you know how to make me take a side. The

583
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 2: market is saying the Ravens cover, and for what it's worth, Historically,

584
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: double digit favorites have been really good bets in the

585
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 2: NFL playoffs. There's usually the reason why they're double digit favorites.

586
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 2: I think seventeen to one straight up thirteen and five

587
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: against the Spreads Ince twenty ten. But if I had

588
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 2: to take a side here, I'd go with the Steelers,

589
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: Like they're just gonna ugly this up. Their defense is

590
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 2: going to be healthier. Nose Flowers is important, and his

591
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 2: man they have Lamar's number. This will probably be a

592
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: low scoring game. I think they'll find a way to

593
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 2: stay in it, and you'll have Tomlin will be basically

594
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 2: on your side, as if you bet the dog and

595
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 2: the under. I mean, his quote to that was pretty funny.

596
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: He said, for us, it's about playing. They asked him

597
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: why they keep running the ball so much. For us,

598
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: it's about playing to a personality that we prescribe to

599
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 2: engineer victory, to possess the ball, and a component of

600
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 2: possessing the ball is not only time, but managing risk.

601
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: And obviously there's less risk with running the ball than

602
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:35,280
Speaker 2: throwing it, and sometimes that's a component of this discussion

603
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 2: as well. Basically just telling you, like I'm going to

604
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 2: try to get this under home.

605
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: People kill me for catchphrases, but I'm trying to capture

606
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: a thought succacly without damn talking too much, because I

607
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: just hate talking.

608
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 2: I'd rather do. But you gotta remember this line was

609
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: what set around the touchdown in the first meeting seven

610
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I know Pickens was out, but

611
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 2: their entire defense went down and there was that key

612
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 2: that Wilson fumble really changed the game. And you know,

613
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 2: now no Flowers, you have Pickens in there, the defense

614
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 2: is healthy, and now you're getting ten. I think it's

615
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 2: a bit too high.

616
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: Yeah.

617
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 2: So the market saying Ravens.

618
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: Cover, it's it's this, It's that twenty twenty four like

619
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 1: like like you're I feel I'm with you. I wanted

620
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: to take the Steelers. I even thought about it for

621
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: the six pack, but I feel like twenty twenty four

622
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: says Ravens wins seventeen three.

623
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 2: I got it. And I had no feeling any team

624
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:33,800
Speaker 2: this year except the Ravens.

625
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, now you do.

626
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 2: That's what my God says, is that the Steelers. The

627
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: Ravens wins. Steelers cover third pick and the fifth overall

628
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 2: of the wild card weekend six pack. I'm going with

629
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Rams plus one and a half against

630
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 2: the Minnesota Vikings plus one and a half. Out there,

631
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 2: Bandal minus one fifteen plus one is fine as well.

632
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: It's widely available. This is a very interesting game to me,

633
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 2: these two teams have already played earlier in this season.

634
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 2: It was a disadvantage, it was not an advent. Let

635
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 2: me say it again. It was a disadvantageous situation.

636
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: It's not an advantageous situation. It is not an advantage.

637
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: It was not an advantageous situation. Tricky situational spot for

638
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 2: the Vikings in that game, short week, going across the

639
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 2: country and they weren't they didn't even think Nicole was

640
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: going to play. Flores' has come out and said, like,

641
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: we were shocked that Nicole played. So they didn't really

642
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: have Like, they didn't really change their game plan up.

643
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 2: They didn't blitz as much as they usually do, they

644
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: didn't really change their coverages up. I am super curious.

645
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 2: Why I love the NFL playoffs is and this is

646
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 2: part of trying to crack the code of each game

647
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 2: is a lot of this will come down and this

648
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 2: is why coaching is so important, and coordinators specifically, a

649
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: lot of this will come down to like curveballs in

650
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 2: game adjustments and then like what curveballs do coordinators grow

651
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 2: out there and that they've been saving for the high

652
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: leverage spots and you have a great matchup here McVeigh,

653
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 2: who could always cook up something that the other team

654
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: isn't expecting versus Flores, Like does Flores go surprise man? Here?

655
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 2: Does he go man heavy? You don't really want to

656
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 2: zone Stafford and these receivers, they'll just quick pass you

657
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 2: to death all day. And I don't believe in this

658
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: Viking secondary on the back end. They just have to

659
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 2: get pressure and Stafford, he's one of only six quarterbacks

660
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 2: with a turnover where they play right north of five

661
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: point three percent and all six of them are over

662
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: seven percent. That's like what has to be done here?

663
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: So like do they play man and then bring a

664
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 2: ton of pressure? That's I'm so curious to watch this.

665
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 2: I love this chess match. But at the end of

666
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: the day, I have to take the better quarterback as

667
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 2: a home dog. Basically off of a bye which I

668
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 2: think was really needed as a team that didn't have

669
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: a buye, you know, especially with Stafford Older. I think

670
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 2: he really benefited from that bye week. The team has

671
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 2: Week five or six bye week. Rams actually finished with

672
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 2: a higher weighted DVOA. I'd make them a tiny small

673
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 2: favorite here. The Rams can get pressure, and I think

674
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:45,240
Speaker 2: that's the key against Darnold here and coming into this game.

675
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: I mean, you want to talk about a nightmare scenario

676
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 2: last week against Detroit. You lose the bye, you lose

677
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 2: the one seed. Your kicker is now potentially lacking confidence,

678
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 2: and reikerd doesn't look confident out there, and by the way,

679
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 2: Carty does. We have two kickers, which should be a

680
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:09,240
Speaker 2: close game, two kickers going in the opposite direction. Cardy

681
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 2: almost he was. He was throwing swearwards at the TV

682
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: last week because I had the Seahawks and Cardi kept

683
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 2: hitting fifty eight yards on me. I'm like, where is this?

684
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: Rams special teams? And then Donald? Where is Donald's head at?

685
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: Where is he at? Mentally? I mean, he's got to

686
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 2: be shaken every that that was one of the worst

687
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: performances I've ever seen. I mean, that was as bad

688
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 2: as it gets. And missing throws, it looks like the

689
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 2: ghosts were back. And by the way, this will be

690
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: his first ever playoff start. You're going to hear this

691
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 2: stat a lot, but quarterbacks making their first playoff start

692
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 2: against the quarterbacks playoff experience nineteen thirty seven and one

693
00:39:55,920 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 2: against the spread, better quarterback at home, great chess matchup. Coaches,

694
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 2: give me the Rams. Yeah, Vikings there had a schedule.

695
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 2: They're like, they way overperformed this year. I hinted that

696
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 2: I'm not a believer. I got a ton of Blackford

697
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 2: after they beat the Packers, but they went on a

698
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 2: ten game winning streak before that. Lion's lost. I got

699
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: stuck by the Lions. The only playoff team that they

700
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,919
Speaker 2: beat over that stretch was the Packers by two at home.

701
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: That's it, There's this team has more holes than you

702
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 2: might believe for a fourteen win team. It's unfortunately, I

703
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 2: mean O'Connell hell of a job to win four They

704
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: lost a left tackle two to do what he did

705
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 2: with Donald, it is amazing, but a little bit of

706
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 2: fool's gold. I like the Rams. I think you agree.

707
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: Yeah I do. I'm wet nervous about it, only because

708
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 1: there is like a.

709
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 2: Part of both, Like it's like, yeah, it's like one

710
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 2: just jumping off the Vikings after last Yeah yeah.

711
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: And it's like because like you talk about like I mean,

712
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 1: I went on a crazy losing streak, so like you

713
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 1: talk about having some joy, like that was a great

714
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: way to end the regular season, Like I have the

715
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: under fifty seven and like to see Darneld just do that.

716
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 1: It was just like that was joy. But now I

717
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 1: feel like there is a part of me that says,

718
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,479
Speaker 1: Vikes went on that wind streak, very well coached team

719
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 1: with the talent to match, and they did it. And

720
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 1: like you said, they didn't really face a schedule that

721
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 1: gave them many tests outside of the Lions in the Rams.

722
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: So a part of me says, it was probably good

723
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:48,320
Speaker 1: for them to get punched in the mouth in week eighteen,

724
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: and now it's week nineteen and it's like, now the

725
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:55,280
Speaker 1: playoffs are starting, it's the Rams would have to upset

726
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: them twice as an underdog. That's the part of me

727
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: that says, like, I don't know, but I do agree.

728
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 1: I think I think this is more of a coin

729
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 1: flip game. I feel like back in the day we

730
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 1: would the Vikings would have been like three point favorites.

731
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 1: Now the market's so sharp that you know they're one

732
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 1: one and a half.

733
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 2: So I just go back to I think this game

734
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 2: will be close regardless at the end. Towards the end

735
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 2: of the game, if I need to drive again, need

736
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 2: I want Stafford over Darnold, And I think that's going

737
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: to ultimately make the difference in this game. I also

738
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 2: will look Stafford's been one of the best quarterbacks to

739
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 2: back Live as an underdog over the past fifteen years.

740
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: The Vikings jump out look for the Rams live as well.

741
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: Disagree with that. I know what you're getting at, but

742
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: I actually don't want Stafford facing Viking like in Vikings

743
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: in must pass situations like I cause, like the whole thing,

744
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 1: I think the weakness of the Rams is that they

745
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: really can't protect as good as like they can't protect

746
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 1: well and so they kind of need it to be

747
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 1: you know, blow out and Stafford is not evading sacks

748
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: or doing anything you know, moving around the pocket. So

749
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,839
Speaker 1: I think I would much rather the Rams like get

750
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 1: the ball, get down the field, Kyroen punches it in

751
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: and they're kind of playing from ahead. If they go down,

752
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: I think it's ciro I think it spirals a lot

753
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 1: more like I I just I think I think that's

754
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 1: the weakness of the Rams, like they just they everything

755
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 1: is just kind of a uh. The McVeigh has done

756
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,320
Speaker 1: a masterful job just kind of building this offense around

757
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 1: the fact that Stafford cannot escape pressure and his line

758
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 1: can't protect. So yeah, I if they get down, I

759
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 1: don't want Minnesota just teeing off on on Stafford and

760
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 1: like they can't hand it to Kyron like eight times

761
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: in the drive.

762
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think the Ns will be able to

763
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 2: run it. And because I think the Vikings run day,

764
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 2: which is very good statistically, is a bit overrated. They're

765
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 2: because they're in favorable game states all year. You dig

766
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: a little deeper into someone. I mean just like look

767
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 2: at like midpack.

768
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 1: Their midpack fourteenth in lineyards, which is adjusted for opponent.

769
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 2: So that's yeah, I think that, And they were in

770
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 2: favorable game states for a lot like I think that

771
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 2: the Yeah, it's just I think this is more cooin flippy.

772
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 2: I make the Rams a slight favorite, and I'm going

773
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: to take the better quarterback at home. Donald after that, now, Donald,

774
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 2: at their last week's performance, making his first ever playoff

775
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: start on the road, could get dicey and don't sleep

776
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 2: on record. I think he's lost confidence as a kicker.

777
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: That could end up making the difference as well. Where

778
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 2: are you going for your last pick?

779
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 1: All right? For my third and final pick, the sixth

780
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: overaw of the Wildcar Weekend six pack, going with the

781
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Bucks minus three against the Washington Commanders, and

782
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 1: I love his match for the Bucks a number one.

783
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 1: They love the Blitz. Jayden Daniels hasn't been as good

784
00:44:56,239 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 1: as efficient against the Blitz. He is at uh a

785
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 1: forty five success rate against the Blitz compared to fifty

786
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: two when he's not blitzed. He his touchdown rate goes down.

787
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: And same thing. And the Bucks they're getting healthier. Uh,

788
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 1: Winfield practiced, Dean practiced, dude, Yeah, yeah, because that's secondary.

789
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think people realize just how banged

790
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 1: up the Bucks defense has been all year. And we're

791
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,760
Speaker 1: still missing a couple who were missing, We're still missing

792
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 1: the safety, but we're getting pretty pretty healthy here. Bucks

793
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 1: can stop the run and they've been one of the

794
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 1: best run defenses with Vita Villa Vitavea in the lineup. Uh,

795
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 1: that's gonna be an issue for Washington because really Washington

796
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: is Jayden Daniels on offense. You know, the offensive line

797
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: is you know, Yiaddish is banged up, Lucas is banged up,

798
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: but it's not really a great supporting cast for Jade

799
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: and Daniels. I know you got that quarterback. But it's

800
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 1: really Jayden Daniels carrying and doing some amazing stuff. But

801
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 1: all the way that the Bucks scheme on defense is

802
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 1: kind of what it feeds into Jayde Daniels' weaknesses. So

803
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 1: the fact that on top of that he won't he

804
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 1: probably won't have a run game is I think worrysome

805
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay on the other side against Washington, I mean

806
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 1: this offense. You know, Washington has been blitzing a lot too.

807
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield is number one in success rate against the blitz.

808
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: Washington plays more single high safety, that's what you know.

809
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:41,280
Speaker 1: Mayfield has been top five and success rate against single

810
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:44,919
Speaker 1: high and too high. So like with this run game,

811
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 1: I think that's what that's the difference. It's you could

812
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: see either of these offenses, these pass offenses, putting up

813
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 1: a big number. You can see either of these pass

814
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 1: off defenses giving up a lot. But I think the

815
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 1: Bucks are gonna be able to stop the run, and

816
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: I don't think the Commanders are gonna be able to

817
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: stop the run. With Bucky Irving, who just the Bucks

818
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: have just smartly given more and more and more carries.

819
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:09,839
Speaker 1: I wasn't sure if they were going to do it

820
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: this year they've done it. They're given Bucky Irvy in

821
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 1: the full eighteen twenty carries, even if it means ra

822
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 1: Sean White gets none, and against this Commander team that

823
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: is twenty third line yards on defense, twenty eighth in

824
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 1: yards for carry allowed to running backs at four point

825
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 1: eighty five. I think that's gonna be the difference because

826
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: game Daniels super efficient, amazing rookie year, Baker Mayfield has

827
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 1: been just as efficient. So you're not like this is

828
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: one of these matchups where you're gonna have to score

829
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 1: and any little thing is you know, that could be

830
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 1: the difference in the game. I think the Bucks can

831
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: put up a big number here, and I just don't

832
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 1: think the Commanders keep pace. You know, they have been

833
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: getting they have been keeping pace over the past few games.

834
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: They came back against the fault because they came back

835
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: against the Eagles once Hurts went down. I think their

836
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 1: luck runs out here kind of similar to earlier in

837
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: the year, when you know, we just seen the we

838
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: saw the Commander just keep having these crazy, uh these

839
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 1: crazy results, and it was like, all right, at some

840
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: point you're gonna see their aggression. I think this is

841
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: another one of those points. The Bucks pretty much all

842
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 1: of their wins except that Carolina one in overtime, which

843
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: they shouldn't even even won, have been by margin, so

844
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,919
Speaker 1: high scoring game total sitting at fifty and a half

845
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 1: as we record this. I don't mind laying the three.

846
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: If you're really queasy about it, you can also try

847
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 1: to find a money line. But I think the value

848
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 1: here is on the three because I think everyone's looking

849
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 1: at Washington like, Okay, who's gonna get upset? This? This?

850
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: You know? And it's it's everyone's probably looking at Tampa

851
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 1: Bay right for an upset. No one's that impressed with them.

852
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:45,879
Speaker 1: I think this Tampa Bay team is being swept on now.

853
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 1: Once they were being underrated, overrated, but they're kind of

854
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 1: like the poor Man's Lions, Like they have a monster

855
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 1: running game, they can still be efficient passing a veteran

856
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: quarterback that's middle of the pack and talent but playing

857
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: at a top five level, good offensive play, caller play designer,

858
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 1: schemer defense that can stop the run better than the

859
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 1: past and makes you nervous, but probably better than you think.

860
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I like the Bucks in the spot.

861
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 1: Love the matchup for them against the Commanders, here give

862
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 1: me the bucks.

863
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, this would have been one of mine. Yeah, they

864
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 2: won twelve games, but this roster just isn't that talented.

865
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 2: By the way, I am looking forward to a lot

866
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 2: more versus Mike Evans. That should be fireworks. But this

867
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: is a team I have the easiest schedule in the league.

868
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:34,919
Speaker 2: They went eight and two in games decided by seven

869
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 2: points or fewer. They had six wins. On the final

870
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 2: play of the game six you're talking hail Mary's Mariota

871
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 2: coming in saving the day, throwing a touchdown. I mean

872
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 2: the Falcons debacle. They have the lowest strength to schedule

873
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 2: in the entire conference. That their strength of victory is

874
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,760
Speaker 2: only three fifty eight. That's the lowest of any NFC

875
00:49:55,800 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 2: playoff team by far, even lower than these non playoff

876
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 2: teams Dallas, Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, San Francisco, New York. Just

877
00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:06,439
Speaker 2: take a look at their past four games. They beat

878
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,839
Speaker 2: the bottom feeder Saints by one in New Orleans, who

879
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 2: didn't get a two to win the game. They beat

880
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 2: the Eagles, then on the last played the game by

881
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 2: three because Jalen Hurts went down and they were about

882
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 2: to get ran off the field. In that game. Then

883
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 2: they may play a rookie quarterback making his first start

884
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,280
Speaker 2: with Atlanta on the road in prime time in Washington's

885
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 2: biggest game in recent franchise history. They're on double digits

886
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 2: at the half. Bring Morris botches the clock and they

887
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 2: miss a field goal to win it, and then the

888
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 2: end up winning a point toss and winning a game

889
00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 2: in overtime. And then last week playing first seed against

890
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 2: Trey Lance, got out played until Mariota saved the day.

891
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:47,320
Speaker 2: I mean, it's the last four weeks. You're barely escaping

892
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett, Trey Lance, Spencer Rattler. Come on, and this

893
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 2: offense is dipped significantly. You look over the second half

894
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 2: the year, let's just look at it. Early downs, more predictive.

895
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 2: First half of the year third and EPA fifth and

896
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 2: success rate, second half of the year twentieth in EPA

897
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 2: pri play thirteenth and success rate. They've also been really lucky, Like,

898
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 2: are they going to keep getting every single fourth down?

899
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 2: They're eventually going to lose some fumbles. This team is

900
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 2: running so good, and I trust the Tampa Bay run defense.

901
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,320
Speaker 2: By the way, second the year, number one in the league.

902
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 2: Washington well below average. Bucky Irvin should have a big day,

903
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 2: Bucks should be able to run it more. Here, Liam

904
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 2: Cohen over Kingsbury all day, Bucks secondary getting healthier, and

905
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 2: by rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the

906
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 2: road against the quarterback with experience in the playoffs. I

907
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,879
Speaker 2: agree with this one, all right.

908
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 1: So that's our sixth back we got. Let's see, well

909
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: we don't have just quarterbacks, but let's see you got

910
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 1: you got some Jordan Love, some CJ. Oh. Yeah, so

911
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 1: you got love CJ and Stafford's pretty good lineup. And

912
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 1: I just got under So and Baker Mayfield. What could

913
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 1: go wrong? But that's our wild card weekend six pack.

914
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 1: And now we'll jump into our coaches pep talk. Every

915
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 1: time we get ready to play, I just want to

916
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:20,400
Speaker 1: throw up.

917
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 2: I'm sick. I'm watching you guys play.

918
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 1: Just how bad can it get?

919
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 2: All Right?

920
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 1: This week's coach is pep talk. I'm excited about this one.

921
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 1: It comes to us from NFL Films legend John Fasenda,

922
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:40,800
Speaker 1: probably my favorite voice ever in showbiz, performing a famous

923
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 1: dramatic reading of Rudyard Kippling. And we're gonna dedicate this

924
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: to all of our picks. So Packers the Texans, the Rams,

925
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 1: the Chargers and Texans Defenses, Raven Steelers Defenses, and the

926
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Bucks. Love me, sir, John facend us a

927
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 1: best of luck to all those teams this week.

928
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 3: If you can keep your head when all about you

929
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 3: are losing theirs and blaming it on you. If you

930
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 3: can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make

931
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 3: allowance for their doubting too. If you can dream and

932
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 3: not make dreams your master. If you can meet with

933
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 3: triumph and disaster and treat those two impostors just the same.

934
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 3: If you can make one heap of all you're winning

935
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,760
Speaker 3: and risk it on one turn of pitch and toss

936
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 3: and lose, and start again at your beginnings and never

937
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,799
Speaker 3: breathe a word about your loss. If you can fill

938
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 3: the unforgiving minute with sixty seconds worth of distance run

939
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 3: yours is the earth and everything that's in it, and

940
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 3: which is more, You'll be a man, my son.

941
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 1: No teaser for us this week. Let's get into our

942
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: underdog money line parlay.

943
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:13,400
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

944
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

945
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 1: So you like the Rams, so there plus one oh

946
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 1: two and I agree with you. On the Texans their

947
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 1: plus one thirty six, So make that a little parway

948
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 1: plus three seventy seven the parway odds for that one.

949
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 2: The Bravens win the Super Bowl every twelve years. They

950
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 2: did it thousand, twenty twelve, and now this is the

951
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four season. Each of those years they had

952
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:43,320
Speaker 2: a quarterback those twenty eight Jilfer Flacco and now a

953
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,280
Speaker 2: Lamar just turned twenty eight. Each of those Super Bowls

954
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 2: they scored thirty four points. So and then I have

955
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 2: the Packers fans who are telling me every fourteen years

956
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 2: with their new franchise quarterback, they go ninety six twenty four.

957
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,240
Speaker 2: I threw someone. I threw a little fun super Bowl

958
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 2: exact matchup of Packers Ravens. Another fun thing. Before we

959
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 2: get to the final game. That the Bill's friend of

960
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 2: the show, Anthony Dubunda. He asked me text me and

961
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 2: then asked me a question. I'm curious to get your answer.

962
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 2: He said, take away scheme, personnel, everything and everything else

963
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,640
Speaker 2: was equal coaching and you had to make a playoff run.

964
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 2: You go to make us your only goal is to

965
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: win a Super Bowl. Which NFC quarterback are you taking?

966
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 2: It's in the playoffs right now, you can take anyone.

967
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 2: All your team's equal, your coaching is equal, every every

968
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 2: setting is equal.

969
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 1: That's a good question. I'm going through them mentally now.

970
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 2: I said Love because and the only reason I said

971
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 2: Love is because, oh I want to win a super Bowl,

972
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 2: so I want the upside. And like Love's ceiling is

973
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 2: still extremely high when he's hot, but like it's close

974
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 2: d Bundo, said Daniels, Which is outrageous because I'm not

975
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 2: taking a rookie quarterback to make a super Bowl run

976
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 2: in any world?

977
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 1: Is this assuming we're going through this NFC.

978
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 2: This this, yeah, this season, but all the teams. Yeah, Baker,

979
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:14,240
Speaker 2: You're you're taking Baker? Yeah. I can make many different cases.

980
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I thought about God that I see. I

981
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,439
Speaker 1: don't want Stafford because I still I want I want

982
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 1: more movement. Baker could be like the best of all worlds,

983
00:56:22,640 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 1: Like he might turn the ball over a little bit more,

984
00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 1: but he could throw accurately deep, short, and like I

985
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 1: really like the pocket movement scrambling that he's added to

986
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 1: his game, Like I I feel like it's it's adding,

987
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 1: it's adding a lot of positive e p A. You know,

988
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 1: with Baker kind of moving around in the pocket that

989
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 1: just wasn't there before.

990
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:51,960
Speaker 2: All Right, let's get to Bill's Broncos.

991
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 3: When it's too tough for them.

992
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:59,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we got the Bills hosting the Broncos. Bills

993
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:02,959
Speaker 1: up to nine point favorites, the total forty seven, forty

994
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:05,840
Speaker 1: six and a half. At some spots, I thought about

995
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 1: the under for this one. I like the matchups for

996
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 1: both defenses better. But it's twenty twenty four and it's

997
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 1: the Bills, so they'll probably just score forty by themselves.

998
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 1: So what are your thoughts on this game?

999
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 2: I like the under here. I kind of leaned Denver. Yeah,

1000
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 2: show a tiny bit of that that The biggest problem

1001
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 2: here is the quarterback matchup. Bo Nick's been playing well,

1002
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 2: but he's making his first ever Playoffs start on the

1003
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 2: road against Josh Allen. Because when I look at this game,

1004
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 2: so I just can't see Josh Allen losing this game

1005
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 2: to Bo Nicks. Because but just on the surface, it's

1006
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 2: like great offense with Josh Allen versus a great defense,

1007
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:52,400
Speaker 2: elite defense. And on the other side, it's like the

1008
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 2: Bills are an okay defense and the Broncos are an

1009
00:57:56,080 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 2: okay offense. The Broncos. So like there you would say

1010
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 2: it's a wash, and then you kind of have to

1011
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 2: like some of the things that the Broncos have working

1012
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 2: for them as far as like being able to cover

1013
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 2: over a touchdown on the road in the NFL playoffs.

1014
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 2: They have a great coach and Sean Payton it's always

1015
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 2: good as an underdog. They have a great offensive line,

1016
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 2: and they have a great defense. Like those three things

1017
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 2: will get you a long way in terms of giving

1018
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 2: you a really good chance of covering a spread that's

1019
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 2: over a touchdown. By the way, po Nick's the first

1020
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 2: quarterback in the NFL history talk about a weird year,

1021
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 2: the first that quarterback in the history. Eight no against

1022
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 2: the spread is a favorite during the season, Oh wow.

1023
00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 2: So yeah. And I think that the Broncos can methodically

1024
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 2: move the ball a bit like the Bills want to

1025
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 2: take away the explosive play. I think the Broncos can

1026
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 2: sustain some drives. I don't know like if they're gonna

1027
00:58:56,520 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 2: be able to turn them all into touchdowns, but like

1028
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to eat the clock year. I

1029
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: think their defense can hang. But like at the end

1030
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 2: of the day, it's just like what's gonna happen. Is

1031
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:07,920
Speaker 2: Alan's gonna make plays. He's going to use his legs.

1032
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 2: You're going to see some man here, and but I

1033
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 2: lean Denver, I do like the under. I'll probably be

1034
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 2: on the under forty seven, which is a key, but

1035
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 2: it's just a court at the end of the day.

1036
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 2: It comes out of the quarterback matchup and rookie quarterbacks

1037
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 2: against McDermott not fair too well storically seven touchdowns, seventeen interceptions,

1038
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:27,760
Speaker 2: But I think the Broncos can stay in this, make

1039
00:59:27,800 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 2: it interesting, keep it low scoring. And it's just like

1040
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 2: what scares me is Nick's just making a critical mistake

1041
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 2: or two against Buffalo. Yes, McDermot confuses.

1042
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 1: Him because so I was looking at this too.

1043
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 2: I think Peyton knows that it is going to like

1044
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,520
Speaker 2: hold his hand. They're going to keep this real conservative

1045
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 2: and that that's you can do against it. Those like

1046
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 2: you methodically move it, not going to have him throw deep.

1047
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 2: The problem is like if they get behind and then

1048
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 2: you can like snowball quick.

1049
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. Like so the Bill's defense fairly predictable. Scheme wise,

1050
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 1: they play zone at a top five rate. They play

1051
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 1: two safeties deep at the top five rate. Knicks versus

1052
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:22,440
Speaker 1: zone coverage is thirty first in yards for attempt twenty

1053
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:27,080
Speaker 1: fourth and EPA twenty fifth and success rate, but his

1054
01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:29,960
Speaker 1: numbers against man are just a little better. But the

1055
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 1: big one is the interceptions go up two point six

1056
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 1: percent versus one point five against man, and then.

1057
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:40,920
Speaker 2: He just won't see it. He just won't see a

1058
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:43,280
Speaker 2: safety or misreaated zone sometimes.

1059
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 1: And that's even and it's even worse when you look

1060
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:47,400
Speaker 1: at the two high versus single high. He's had a

1061
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 1: lot of success against single high. His yards for attempt

1062
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 1: is seven point two, but against too high just six

1063
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 1: point four. And then the interception rate one point four

1064
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 1: against single high, three point three, thirty second against too

1065
01:01:03,160 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: high where and you know, the success rates about the

1066
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 1: same for both. The EPA is significantly worse versus too high,

1067
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 1: so versus single high point oh nine. EPA per dropback

1068
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 1: against two safeties deep negative point oh two. So that's

1069
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:26,680
Speaker 1: a that's a pretty big dip. Obviously, the turnovers factor

1070
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:28,920
Speaker 1: into that a bunch, but yeah, it's it's like the

1071
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 1: for every advantage the Broncos defense has over the Bills

1072
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 1: that most teams don't, it's like you look at Josh

1073
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 1: Allen splits and the EPA is kind of the same

1074
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 1: against everything. It's like you might have, you know, some

1075
01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:46,200
Speaker 1: differences in YPA or touchdown right here, interception rate there,

1076
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 1: but uh yeah, I just it's tough with Nicks and

1077
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: it's it's this is kind of like the Bills defense

1078
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 1: kind of reminds me of the Chargers a little bit,

1079
01:01:54,520 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 1: like a more banged up, maybe not as talented version

1080
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: of the Chargers defense. But and the Broncos have hung

1081
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 1: with the Chargers, but in one of those games it

1082
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 1: took to the fourth quarter. They made it look more

1083
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 1: respectable than it was. The second game, it was like

1084
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 1: a thirty four to twenty seven game. But it's like

1085
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 1: the Chargers don't have the Bills offense. So it's like

1086
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 1: it's like I could I could see the Bills like

1087
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 1: casually winning this by ten, But I agree, I kind

1088
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: of I would lean them. But I think I like

1089
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:26,600
Speaker 1: the under a lot more might be on that one. Yeah, yeah,

1090
01:02:26,640 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 1: because both defenses do have some edges over their opposing

1091
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that I think some clock. Yeah, I mean we

1092
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 1: say that and then they try to run the ball

1093
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: with their clown car backs. But I like that Peyton

1094
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:44,360
Speaker 1: stopped and stopped the Davonte stop giving Davonte.

1095
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 2: Yeah that helps, but like it's just gonna be like

1096
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 2: short passing attack like.

1097
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:51,400
Speaker 1: Marvin give it to Marvin over and over again.

1098
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 2: And yeah. So but it's just it's just scary. Like

1099
01:02:58,160 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 2: if you're like you're going to war, then you know

1100
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:04,040
Speaker 2: the numbers. The rookie numbers are bad. First road playoffs start,

1101
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 2: the first playos start in general against a quarterbacks experience,

1102
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:12,440
Speaker 2: like you're going to battle with a Knicks ticket against

1103
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 2: Josh All on the road.

1104
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 1: It's and Denver has dropped off offensively on the road,

1105
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:22,000
Speaker 1: especially outdoor road games. I know they play outdoors in

1106
01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: their home stadium, but it don't feel great about it.

1107
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, I go under for this one. Overside, Hopefully

1108
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:29,280
Speaker 1: the Bills win.

1109
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 2: No disrespect to the Broncos. The Broncos aren't going to

1110
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:35,160
Speaker 2: beat the Bills, the Chiefs and then the Ravens on

1111
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:38,600
Speaker 2: back to back weeks. So look, you're a head to schedule.

1112
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 2: Maybe they will, but you're the chalk in the NFL.

1113
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 2: Don't rob us of Bills Ravens.

1114
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:53,320
Speaker 1: Please. Sunday, the Steelers will be like, uh, actually we're

1115
01:03:53,320 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna win now and it'll be Steelers win, Texans.

1116
01:03:56,240 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 2: Win, Texans at Bills, Steelers at Chiefs. Yeah, the AFC

1117
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 2: gets a lot less interesting the AFC Divisional round. It's

1118
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 2: a lot less interesting. Like Bill's Ravens is like game

1119
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 2: of the year type stuff.

1120
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially because you have the revenge from the Bill's

1121
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:20,880
Speaker 1: going to Baltimore and getting waxed. And now they got

1122
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 1: that two seed.

1123
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:25,280
Speaker 2: So and that's who's supposed to potentially de throne to

1124
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:27,160
Speaker 2: help the winner of that game.

1125
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:28,080
Speaker 1: Yep.

1126
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:30,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, supposed to everyone's dirty work and get rid of

1127
01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:30,919
Speaker 2: the Chiefs for once.

1128
01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 1: I can't believe the year. The Chiefs probably look the weakest.

1129
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:37,600
Speaker 1: They get that, they lose one game when it matters,

1130
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 1: get the number one seed, and now they only have

1131
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:42,800
Speaker 1: to face one of the Bills and Ravens, who are

1132
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 1: probably both a little better. Yep, crazy, all right, that's

1133
01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:53,600
Speaker 1: going to do it for our wild Card Weekend Action

1134
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 1: Network podcast. You can hear more of me every week

1135
01:04:56,600 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 1: with my guy Sean Kerner talking Fantasy DFS player Project,

1136
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:03,200
Speaker 1: Action Touchdowns, all that good stuff on a Fantasy Flex pod.

1137
01:05:03,640 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 1: And of course you can hear Stucky talking college football

1138
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:12,640
Speaker 1: playoff semi finals over on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

1139
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 1: Make sure you check that out. Stuck is on X

1140
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 1: at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at those

1141
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: same handles on the free award winning Action Network at

1142
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 1: until the division round with get this Money, Let Go.

1143
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:40,480
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1144
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,720
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1145
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:46,600
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1146
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:47,520
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler