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Speaker 2: Politics Drive.
Speaker 3: A lot of conversations on this program, including one that
Speaker 3: we're about to have Kaylee, following a ruling today by
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court. They've been adding opinion days of a
Speaker 3: lot of cases left. This one brings us to the
Speaker 3: bump stock.
Speaker 4: Band Yeah, six to three ruling the Supreme Court effectively
Speaker 4: gutting the ban on bump stocks that was put into
Speaker 4: place during the Trump administration after the Las Vegas shooting
Speaker 4: in October of twenty seventeen that killed six sixty people
Speaker 4: wounded hundreds more, the deadliest mass shooting still in modern
Speaker 4: American history.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 3: That's why we're glad to spend some time with Congresswoman
Speaker 3: Dina Titus, who represents Nevada's first district and had a
Speaker 3: visceral reaction to this ruling earlier. Congresswoman, Welcome to Bloomberg
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. We appreciate the time you're giving us today.
Speaker 3: You tweeted following this ruling, the Supreme Court just got
Speaker 3: it a year's long bump stock band. You call it terrifying,
Speaker 3: and you end your message with the line and angry
Speaker 3: lawmaker is a motivated one. The fight is far from over.
Speaker 3: Will you provide a legislative answer to this ruling today?
Speaker 1: I already have done that.
Speaker 5: In fact, I first introduced the bill in twenty seventeen,
Speaker 5: right after the shooting that was in my district, and
Speaker 5: I brought it back every session since it has some
Speaker 5: bipartisans support, and if it came to the floor, I
Speaker 5: believe it would pass because the public opinion is so
Speaker 5: in our favor. We predicted that the Supreme Court would
Speaker 5: do this from the very minute that the ATF took action.
Speaker 5: We knew somebody would sue. So the best way to
Speaker 5: deal with the problem then and now is through legislation.
Speaker 4: Well, Congressoman, as I noted, this did go into effect
Speaker 4: during the Trump administration, and we know that Donald Trump
Speaker 4: does have a close relationship with Congressional Republicans. We saw
Speaker 4: that on full display here in Washington yesterday as he
Speaker 4: met with Republican members of both the Senate and the House,
Speaker 4: all of whom seemed to be for the most part
Speaker 4: behind him. Is it actually Donald Trump who needs convincing
Speaker 4: here to push for a legislative answer?
Speaker 5: Well, I don't have any sway with Donald Trump, and
Speaker 5: I don't think this is very high on his agenda.
Speaker 5: And most of the Republicans have been in bed with
Speaker 5: the NRA for such a long time that they resist this.
Speaker 5: The ATF under Trump made this ruling to try to
Speaker 5: circumvent legislation, probably knowing full well that it would be
Speaker 5: struck down by the course. We knew it. I don't
Speaker 5: know why they wouldn't know it, So it was a
Speaker 5: symbolic gesture, and it's just taken this long to finally
Speaker 5: have the truth come out. And in the meantime, we've
Speaker 5: been trying to get that legislation passed so we wouldn't
Speaker 5: be so to the ruling of this very conservative and
Speaker 5: insensitive Supreme Court.
Speaker 3: The shooting in Las Vegas in your district that brought
Speaker 3: us to this point of having a bump stock ben
Speaker 3: is still the largest, the deadliest in modern American history. Congresswoman,
Speaker 3: what are you hearing from people in your district?
Speaker 1: Today.
Speaker 5: Well, we've been working with some gun violence advocacy groups.
Speaker 5: Moms Demand Action is very active in my district. They've
Speaker 5: put crosses up on the site where the shooting occurred.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of support, and in fact, Nevada legislature
Speaker 5: passed above stock bill. Eleven states have done that as
Speaker 5: well as the District of Columbia. Those laws won't be
Speaker 5: affected by this decision because it was narrowly written just
Speaker 5: on basis of a technicality, so those will still stand.
Speaker 5: But that tells you something about how the people in
Speaker 5: Nevada field, and Nevada is a wild West state with
Speaker 5: a lot of people guns, but they know these aren't
Speaker 5: for hunting or for four bump stocks are strictly for killing,
Speaker 5: and that's what they do.
Speaker 4: Well, Congressman, that really gets to the heart of the
Speaker 4: question that was before the court, which is whether a
Speaker 4: bump stock converts a semi automatic weapon into a machine gun.
Speaker 4: The court today ruled that it doesn't. Would your constituents disagree.
Speaker 5: Oh absolutely, And look at the descending opinion. Just as
Speaker 5: Sodermyer says, if it walks like a duck and it
Speaker 5: talks like a duck, it's a duck. They looked at
Speaker 5: some kind of pulling of one finger as opposed to
Speaker 5: the overall function of the guns. Of the bump stock,
Speaker 5: you attach it to a gun, it will allow you
Speaker 5: to fire four hundred to eight hundred rounds in one minute.
Speaker 5: Think of the people you can take out in one
Speaker 5: minute with that many bullets. So it's very clearly a
Speaker 5: transformation of a regular gun to an automatic gun that
Speaker 5: machine guns we outlawed in the thirties.
Speaker 3: There will be another Supreme Court decision come up on
Speaker 3: whether certain that risk individuals should be able to apply
Speaker 3: for a gun license, those who've been involved in domestic abuse.
Speaker 3: Does this ruling today make you worry about the next Well,
Speaker 3: I worry.
Speaker 5: About everything that comes out of this Supreme Court frankly,
Speaker 5: but yes it does. You know, there's a lot of
Speaker 5: talk about we need to deal with the mental health problems,
Speaker 5: keep guns out of the hands of people who can
Speaker 5: do harm. It's not the gun, it's the person. And
Speaker 5: yet here's a measure that does just that. We'll see
Speaker 5: if they strike it down or not. Likely they will
Speaker 5: because the NRA uses the argument knows under the tent
Speaker 5: any little thing that we do, they say, attacks your
Speaker 5: second Amendment rights. That's absolutely not true. I'm a gun owner.
Speaker 5: I grew up in the South dead and went hunting
Speaker 5: all the time till had two little girls who saw
Speaker 5: bamby and that put an end to that. But we're
Speaker 5: not trying to take away guns. We just want responsible
Speaker 5: use of guns the way they're intended to be, for
Speaker 5: sport or for.
Speaker 4: All Right, Congresswoman, we appreciate you joining us today. That
Speaker 4: is Democratic Representative Dina Titus of the first District of Nevada,
Speaker 4: her district, of course, show, including the Las Vegas Strip
Speaker 4: where we saw those events take place in October of
Speaker 4: twenty seventeen. Perhaps not a surprising ruling from the Supreme
Speaker 4: Court we got today with the six to three decision.
Speaker 4: The Congresswoman herself said that she expected it, and yet
Speaker 4: one that certainly is getting a lot of attention here
Speaker 4: in Washington.
Speaker 2: Two weeks of opinions left.
Speaker 3: We've got a lot more in some big ones too,
Speaker 3: including presidential immunity Kayleie, that we'll be talking about before
Speaker 3: the end of this month. This is the fastest show
Speaker 3: in politics, Ballance of Power, only on Bloomberg.
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Speaker 3: Welcome to Balance of Power, the Friday Edition. I'm Joe
Speaker 3: Matthew in sweltering Washington and lander with us on the radio,
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Speaker 3: us right now. On YouTube and easy to find search
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Speaker 3: goes straight through the day from our studios in Washington
Speaker 3: and New York. As we assemble our panel with the
Speaker 3: billboards going up in Milwaukee, we saw this coming. Maybe
Speaker 3: the T shirts, the hats, I don't know. Do they
Speaker 3: have the coozies made yet? The billboards are out though,
Speaker 3: after Donald Trump described the city in the key swing
Speaker 3: state where his convention will be held next month as horrible.
Speaker 3: That would be Milwaukee, The DNC is now launching billboards
Speaker 3: in ten locations across beautiful Milwaukee featuring the president's former
Speaker 3: presidents insults of the city that again will be home
Speaker 3: to the RNC next month. Rick Davis is so us
Speaker 3: this day after Seersucker Thursday, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Genie
Speaker 3: Shanzano was back in the mix as well.
Speaker 2: Great to see you both.
Speaker 3: Welcome to our panelists on this Friday, Jeanie. I know
Speaker 3: it's silly season here, but is this the strategy the
Speaker 3: DNC wants to be pursuing for the next six months?
Speaker 6: And I'm sorry I missed yoursucker Thursday.
Speaker 2: You know that it was cool.
Speaker 6: So much about yesterday was just a reminder of the
Speaker 6: craziness that Donald Trump brings. Everything from him and Nancy
Speaker 6: Pelosi potentially being together, to Hannibal Lecter to Taylor Swift.
Speaker 6: I mean, this is what the man is talking about
Speaker 6: his first time back in the Capitol Complex since January sixth.
Speaker 6: And of course, the Milwaukee is horrible rings large. You know,
Speaker 6: we saw the cover of the Milwaukee Sentinel Journal today. Yeah,
Speaker 6: I suppose it's not the first time we have heard
Speaker 6: a candidate or a presumptive nominee say something bad about
Speaker 6: a swing state or a swing city. But yeah, the
Speaker 6: Democrats are going to ride it through all its worth.
Speaker 6: It's all we'll see when we go to Milwaukee. So
Speaker 6: it should be a lot of fun.
Speaker 2: Can't wait.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the front page of the Journal Sentinel. Rick, I'm
Speaker 3: looking at it now in my terminal Trump, this big
Speaker 3: bull head of Trump.
Speaker 2: Milwaukee horrible. Now.
Speaker 3: To be fair, the Trump campaign tried to clarify his
Speaker 3: remarks and see he was talking about crime in the city.
Speaker 3: He wasn't trying to insult the city. But Rick, you've
Speaker 3: run conventions before. Is this the right way to roll
Speaker 3: into Milwaukee?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's kind of tough on the Post Committee, who's
Speaker 7: out there raising tens of millions of dollars to support
Speaker 7: the Republican National Convention. You know, when your nominee, who
Speaker 7: you're going to basically spend all this money celebrating, thinks
Speaker 7: you've got a horrible city, you know. But I think
Speaker 7: there's even bigger things at stake here. I mean, as
Speaker 7: you mentioned, this is a battleground state. Every poll we've
Speaker 7: in the last six months has basically called this thing
Speaker 7: dead even And just as a reminder, Biden only won
Speaker 7: this by twenty thousand votes in twenty twenty, so this
Speaker 7: is one of the key states. Biden has to win
Speaker 7: this state, we think, in order to win the presidency,
Speaker 7: and Trump gives them a gift like this. I mean,
Speaker 7: they can explain all day long what they want, but
Speaker 7: these billboards are going to remind people that he called
Speaker 7: our city horrible. I mean, Spinach is horrible. How can
Speaker 7: a city be horrible? That's such over the top.
Speaker 2: All right, so this is too good.
Speaker 3: Producer James answers, the call Biden Harris campaign is already
Speaker 3: up with not a horrible city T shirt. You've got
Speaker 3: the map of the state here thirty two dollars, by
Speaker 3: the way, and the coozies are in.
Speaker 2: Look at this.
Speaker 3: I love Milwaukee coozies with the mug of beer Genie.
Speaker 3: I guess we've already answered the question. This is how
Speaker 3: you respond if you're the DNC.
Speaker 5: Oh it is.
Speaker 6: And I want to tell Rick Popeye is not going
Speaker 6: to be happy. Spinach is not horrible. It's very healthy
Speaker 6: and very good, as is Milwaukee a beautiful city.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 6: But it was it was comical to hear the Republicans
Speaker 6: come out of this meeting and every Wisconsin Republican was saying, well,
Speaker 6: he didn't say it, well he said it, but he
Speaker 6: was talking about crime or you know. It was this
Speaker 6: back and forth, you know, as if he was your
Speaker 6: crazy Grandpa at Thanksgiving dinner who just was tired and
Speaker 6: drank too much and was just you know, going on
Speaker 6: and on, and they were held responsible for what he
Speaker 6: was saying. And of course, the reality is is that
Speaker 6: this is what we are going to be faced with
Speaker 6: for the next rest of this campaign and if he wins,
Speaker 6: for the next five years. And this is a gift
Speaker 6: to the Democrats, not just this statement in Milwaukee, but
Speaker 6: the fact that Trump is back, and Trump is back
Speaker 6: being trunk. And while this gets his base gin and
Speaker 6: people laugh, there are a big coalition of people who
Speaker 6: are saying, the man goes back to Capitol Hill and
Speaker 6: talks about Hannibal Lecter not being so bad because he
Speaker 6: invited a friend. I don't even know what that means
Speaker 6: beyond the you know, it's it's reminiscent of the sharks
Speaker 6: in Arizona the other day. This is what we're in Stofford.
Speaker 6: Do we really want to turn over the nuclear codes
Speaker 6: to him? And that is a big problem for Republicans
Speaker 6: and the Trump campaign. So Democrats say, go at it,
Speaker 6: keep talking Donald, because it's not good. He was better
Speaker 6: off Twitter, in his contained bubble of you know, social media,
Speaker 6: where nobody sort of paid attention to every little thing
Speaker 6: he was saying. But he's back now, wow.
Speaker 2: Oh my god.
Speaker 3: Five of the ten billboards will feature Donald Trump's remarks
Speaker 3: in full quote Milwaukee, where we're having our convention, is
Speaker 3: a horrible city unquote. The other five billboards will include
Speaker 3: the tweet from Jake Sherman at punch Bowl with the
Speaker 3: siren and including that same line. I don't know, get
Speaker 3: your koozies and T shirts now. All I know, Rick
Speaker 3: is there's a debate coming, and this is serious business.
Speaker 3: We can fool around with T shirts and coozies all day,
Speaker 3: but the clock is ticking here, and Joe Biden is
Speaker 3: going to be in three different time zones over the
Speaker 3: course of this two week period. He was in France
Speaker 3: last week, is in Italy today. He's got to get
Speaker 3: him a red eyre Well. I guess that's on Air
Speaker 3: Force one fly overnight to California for the big fundraiser
Speaker 3: with George Clooney this week, and he's on other stuff
Speaker 3: next week. Would you need to take the president in
Speaker 3: this case or your candidate aside and say, sir, it's
Speaker 3: time to start preparing for the debate.
Speaker 7: Yeah, this is really troubling the schedule that they're putting
Speaker 7: Joe Biden in, and I'd say even beyond the debate,
Speaker 7: just his own ability to perform at a high level
Speaker 7: is really being I think put in danger. I mean,
Speaker 7: two trips to your Europe in a month, back and forth.
Speaker 7: Why wouldn't you just stay over there, do a little
Speaker 7: gardening and somebody's placed in Germany and hang out for
Speaker 7: a while and recover from one big event to another.
Speaker 7: And now they're going to put him on a whirlwind
Speaker 7: back and forth across the country in order to get
Speaker 7: him ready for a debate.
Speaker 2: I really think.
Speaker 7: I mean, I've now been through debates since Roma Reagan's
Speaker 7: nineteen eighty debate and virtually every Republican president since then,
Speaker 7: and the one thing you've got to do is be rested.
Speaker 7: You have to be fresh, You have to be able
Speaker 7: to sit and think. And usually that goes along with
Speaker 7: a pretty aggressive debate prep sessions that have to be
Speaker 7: built into the schedule, and incumbent presence always made the mistake, Oh,
Speaker 7: every day on my job is debate prep.
Speaker 8: That's bunk.
Speaker 7: It's not debate prep. You're doing your day job. And
Speaker 7: usually the president in power for the first term has
Speaker 7: a horrible first debate, and we can go through them all.
Speaker 7: I mean, they're like legendary and I've cried through every
Speaker 7: one of.
Speaker 8: Them, and so like, I think these guys have to
Speaker 8: wake up in the White House and realize that their
Speaker 8: candidate's going to be tired and he's not going to
Speaker 8: be prepared and they should not expect him to do well.
Speaker 7: And the whole idea was this was this wild card
Speaker 7: debate that he had to do well in.
Speaker 2: Mm hmm, Genie, it's less than two weeks away. Are
Speaker 2: you getting nervous here?
Speaker 3: I mean, this would be a lot to ask for
Speaker 3: a twenty year old to be doing all of this
Speaker 3: travel right now. I realize they've set aside some time
Speaker 3: at camp David. I guess in that week before the debate,
Speaker 3: is that enough?
Speaker 5: You know?
Speaker 6: The reality is is that Joe Biden has debated Donald
Speaker 6: Trump before. He's prepped for two debates with him. So
Speaker 6: there is that reality. It is curious to me because
Speaker 6: of course Biden's camp chose this time. They knew there
Speaker 6: was going to be a G seven, they knew there
Speaker 6: was going to be the normandy. Those are both important.
Speaker 6: They have this fundraiser this weekend, so they chose this.
Speaker 6: You know, what we can say is expectations of Joe
Speaker 6: Biden couldn't be lower. I mean, if he comes out
Speaker 6: in his mildly conscious and able to, you know, say
Speaker 6: basic things, I think it's going to be a win
Speaker 6: at this point. But you look at the other side.
Speaker 6: You have Jason Miller out there saying Donald Trump doesn't
Speaker 6: need any prep. He's not going to be need to
Speaker 6: be programmed by staff. He's going to demonstrate elite stamina
Speaker 6: like he doesn't the rallies, I mean, they are going
Speaker 6: on and on about how Donald Trump has this thing
Speaker 6: wrapped up, no prep. You know, expectations will be bet
Speaker 6: and so, you know, I think the other side of
Speaker 6: this is going to be fascinating as well, considering we
Speaker 6: basically are looking at an incumbent on incumbent debate and
Speaker 6: so I'm not sure Donald Trump is any more prepared
Speaker 6: for this than Joe Biden is. And last time around,
Speaker 6: Donald Trump was very, very office rocker, and Joe Biden
Speaker 6: had a pretty good performance. And I don't know that
Speaker 6: that won the election for him, but it certainly helped
Speaker 6: him in the polls.
Speaker 3: Elite stamina I think I saw that stuff at seven eleven.
Speaker 2: Rick.
Speaker 3: Is this a traditional murder board, as you guys call it.
Speaker 3: Do you put the incumbent in a room at a
Speaker 3: podium and somebody else is playing Donald Trump? Or is
Speaker 3: Joe Biden beyond that?
Speaker 7: Nobody's beyond that. And if Joe Biden thinks he is
Speaker 7: beyond it or that by debating Donald Trump twice and
Speaker 7: arguably winning because Donald Trump lost it somehow prepares him
Speaker 7: for this, It's all nuts. These are all circumstantial. Everything
Speaker 7: has changed since twenty twenty. And if he doesn't think so.
Speaker 2: Look at his approval rating.
Speaker 7: You know, he's at thirty nine to forty percent and
Speaker 7: he was at fifty four percent and twenty twenty. Joe
Speaker 7: Biden doesn't have anything to give back to the field.
Speaker 7: And so yeah, I mean, why in the world would
Speaker 7: you not have somebody who's going to perform the antics
Speaker 7: that Donald Trump will perform on the debate stage standing
Speaker 7: next to next to Biden. And the thing you have
Speaker 7: to worry about Joe Biden right now, because we've seen
Speaker 7: the quick temperate lately, is him losing his cool? You know,
Speaker 7: Donald Trump, I'm sure is going to get up there
Speaker 7: and try and get the guy to go after him
Speaker 7: and talk about non presidential, talk about outside your comfort zone.
Speaker 7: Last thing you want is dark Brandon showing up on
Speaker 7: the stage.
Speaker 3: Well, what's he gonna have to do with triple gainer
Speaker 3: when he comes out here to prove to everybody that
Speaker 3: he's not too old for this genie? I mean, I
Speaker 3: do I wonder where the bar is for both of them.
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is suggesting they be drug tested because he
Speaker 3: thinks they gave Joe Biden something for the State of
Speaker 3: the Union. And I do wonder what does Joe Biden
Speaker 3: do if Donald Trump, to rix point pulls you know
Speaker 3: a classic What if he shows.
Speaker 2: Up a half an hour late just to psych him.
Speaker 6: Ount he could do anything. It's Donald Trump. I'm still
Speaker 6: wondering if he shows up at all, given that there's
Speaker 6: no audience. But you know, we'll have to see. But
Speaker 6: you know, for Joe Biden, he does know how to
Speaker 6: handle this. Does he need debate prep? Absolutely? Does he
Speaker 6: need rest? Absolutely? I think a week is enough. But
Speaker 6: you know, we'll have to see. But don't forget Donald
Speaker 6: Trump also has to perform, right, This is not all
Speaker 6: about Joe Biden and Donald Trump has to perform, and
Speaker 6: he can't perform the way he did quite frankly yesterday
Speaker 6: in the House talking about Taylor Swift, Hannibal Lecter, Nancy
Speaker 6: Pelosi and him being a good item. I mean, this
Speaker 6: is craziness. And if that is the Trump that shows up,
Speaker 6: that is more of a problem, I think than Joe
Speaker 6: Biden having less, you know, stamina than people might imagine.
Speaker 6: The bar is low for Joe Biden. People don't hate him,
Speaker 6: they don't think he's crazy. They just think he's old
Speaker 6: and he is old. Donald Trump, they think is crazy
Speaker 6: and potentially dangerous. So he can't bring that Donald Trump
Speaker 6: to the show.
Speaker 2: Wow, I don't don't even know what to say.
Speaker 3: She's not a Hannibal elector fan. Geenie Shanzino and Rick Davis.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. It's
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then round
Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: With It is the Friday edition. Welcome to the Threshold
Speaker 3: of the weekend. As Joe Biden wraps things up at
Speaker 3: the G seven in Italy a bit later on today.
Speaker 3: This is the last big day of the confat before
Speaker 3: he comes back to Washington, knowing that there's been a
Speaker 3: lot of discussion, not only about Ukraine, and we spent
Speaker 3: a lot of time on this yesterday, this new security
Speaker 3: deal between the US and Ukraine. We brought you Joe
Speaker 3: Biden's bilateral news conference with President Zelenski.
Speaker 2: But of course Israel came up.
Speaker 3: I believe it was our own Josh Wingrove who went
Speaker 3: there asking for an update on a cease fire, and
Speaker 3: we didn't get too much of an answer on that.
Speaker 3: With news today that things are not cooling off in Israel,
Speaker 3: The New York Times reporting on this, and it's pretty
Speaker 3: heavy duty, with strikes increasing in southern Gaza and now
Speaker 3: new attacks against Hezbolah in Lebanon, and we've been talking
Speaker 3: about the potential for a new front to the North,
Speaker 3: if we can't already call it that, and not the
Speaker 3: first time that we've discussed this with Michael Allen who
Speaker 3: joins US now, I'm glad to say on our Friday edition,
Speaker 3: managing director partner at Beacon Global Strategies, you spent time
Speaker 3: as special assistant to the President's Senior director for Counter
Speaker 3: proliferation Strategy, just the voice that we want now. It's
Speaker 3: great to see you, welcome back, Thanks for reving. Are
Speaker 3: we going to have a second war in Israel? We've
Speaker 3: been waiting for something to break here with Hesbeala. It
Speaker 3: sure feels like we're close.
Speaker 9: I think we are. I was there a month ago,
Speaker 9: and across the political spectrum in Israel they say our
Speaker 9: psyche the way we are post October seventh, and even
Speaker 9: after Iran took direct shots at us, we can no
Speaker 9: longer rely solely on our military deterrent. We have to
Speaker 9: look at the capability of our adversaries and then make
Speaker 9: a judgment of whether we can live with that. And
Speaker 9: Israel cannot live with another genocidal terrorist organization just over
Speaker 9: their border. They're a small cun They can't forever have
Speaker 9: an evacuated space where no one is Honestly, Israel's almost
Speaker 9: been at war for the last eight months with Hesbela.
Speaker 9: They hit them all the time, they do senior leaders constantly.
Speaker 9: But I do think it's going to become a hotter
Speaker 9: war as Gaza finishes.
Speaker 3: The skirmishes or the shell across the border that we've
Speaker 3: seen what does that mean then, because it's not the
Speaker 3: first time that you've warned us about this. Yeah, what
Speaker 3: does that mean for a potential ceasefire with Hamas?
Speaker 2: You can't have both, can you?
Speaker 9: I don't think you can have both. The Israelis, by
Speaker 9: the way, don't want a two front war. I think
Speaker 9: they would rather wrap up let's call it major combat
Speaker 9: operations in Rafa and in Gaza. They'll always be there
Speaker 9: forever more. I think in some limited fashion, I think
Speaker 9: they want to get that done. They want to move forward.
Speaker 9: President Biden and his administration are unalterably opposed to Israel
Speaker 9: declaring war on Hesbala. So we're heading loggerheads again with
Speaker 9: Israel about what the right thing for them.
Speaker 2: To do is.
Speaker 3: So we can where Joe Biden can take that ceasefire
Speaker 3: proposal folded up and put it back in the drawer.
Speaker 9: For now, it sounds like well, also, Hamas is just
Speaker 9: saying no all the time. Now we can debate whether
Speaker 9: Biden has been too anti Israel. So Hamas is hanging
Speaker 9: back and saying, I'm going to get more of what
Speaker 9: I want if I just wait. Because the world, including
Speaker 9: Israel's best friend in the United States, isn't standing with them.
Speaker 9: But also Hamas put forward twelve to fifteen other things
Speaker 9: that they wanted out of a ceasefire deal, and I
Speaker 9: think most of them were total nonstart.
Speaker 3: What was to trap this idea of a permanent ceasefire?
Speaker 3: Why not just deal with phase one six weeks because
Speaker 3: Hamas says it's not signing anything unless it's permanent. It
Speaker 3: Israel says it won't be permanent until the elimination of Hamas,
Speaker 3: So what are we doing.
Speaker 9: The only leverage I think Hamas has is the hostages,
Speaker 9: and the more that they let go or the more
Speaker 9: they get rescued, I think they think they lose leverage
Speaker 9: and the only thing they want is a complete cessation
Speaker 9: of hostilities. And they can read the newspapers Nanna who says, well,
Speaker 9: no matter what we put forward in this agreement, we're
Speaker 9: not going to be able to give up going after
Speaker 9: Hamas if there's still a military force there. So I
Speaker 9: think at the end of the day, that's what Senoar's
Speaker 9: calculation is, which is I can't get everything I want,
Speaker 9: so I'm not going to even start this process.
Speaker 3: As we spend time with Michael Allen at Beacon Global,
Speaker 3: strategies of the throws of a dangerous world and a
Speaker 3: dangerous Middle East. Imagine Israel declares war against Hesbalah, what
Speaker 3: happens to US Iranian relations, if I can even use
Speaker 3: that term.
Speaker 9: So I think the United States should try to get
Speaker 9: a little tougher on Iran. They are making in what
Speaker 9: for well, sanctions or at least to enforce the sanctions
Speaker 9: that are already on the books that we're not currently
Speaker 9: implementing or otherwise enforcing. I think that they have to
Speaker 9: look to the head of the snake. It's Iran. They
Speaker 9: need to put pressure on them, rather than always putting
Speaker 9: only pressure on Israel.
Speaker 2: To curb its hostilities.
Speaker 9: It's got to be both sides of the equation if.
Speaker 2: They want to have success. Well, boy, that's something.
Speaker 3: And you wonder what Anthony Blinkoln thinks about that as
Speaker 3: he continues shuttle diplomacy coming off his eighth trip. Now,
Speaker 3: these have not been terribly effective.
Speaker 9: They haven't. There is actually an alternative. There is a
Speaker 9: diplomatic path in Lebanon. It's a guy named Almos Hawkstein.
Speaker 9: He has been requested by the people in Lebanon to
Speaker 9: come over to try and broker some sort of deal.
Speaker 3: This is a senior advisor to senior advisor to Presdice
Speaker 3: on this program before and always helped to shepherd the
Speaker 3: energy policy at the Exactly, this is about relationships, as
Speaker 3: your point.
Speaker 9: Exactly, They've asked him to see if he can figure
Speaker 9: out a way to get Hesbela to withdraw north of
Speaker 9: the Latani River. That would give Israel more confidence at
Speaker 9: least that the terrorist organization isn't going to run over
Speaker 9: in the middle of the night and massacre everyone.
Speaker 2: That's fascinating.
Speaker 3: So we go from Bill Burns, the head of the CIA,
Speaker 3: to a presidential advisor. Is being able to turn the
Speaker 3: key to some diplomatic solution.
Speaker 2: Not the Secretary of State.
Speaker 9: He Almos Hostein needs some backing. Though he can't just
Speaker 9: solve this diplomatically all on his own. He needs some leverage,
Speaker 9: and I think that means they have to go through
Speaker 9: Tehran and not just wow television.
Speaker 2: Does that happen?
Speaker 9: It's hard to see because I think there's what meetings
Speaker 9: take place. Well, if you believe this Wall Street Journal
Speaker 9: article from about ten days ago, the administration doesn't understandably
Speaker 9: doesn't want any more problems in the Middle East. Before
Speaker 9: the election doesn't want a regional escalation scenario, and they
Speaker 9: asked the Europeans, according to the Wall Street Journal, to
Speaker 9: not punish Iran for their new nuclear transgressions. So I
Speaker 9: don't know that the administration is conditioned in this way
Speaker 9: to think, let's put more pressure on Iran. But I
Speaker 9: know it's not going to work. When I go to
Speaker 9: Israel and I talk to everyone there, and everyone across
Speaker 9: the political spectrum says we've got to do something about
Speaker 9: Hesbelah before September. First, kids need to move back into
Speaker 9: their communities, get back to school, and get back life
Speaker 9: back to normal.
Speaker 3: Well, if it does feel like we're on the verge
Speaker 3: of something. Lastly, after what we heard from Joe Biden
Speaker 3: yesterday speaking I think specifically to Patriot missile systems, but
Speaker 3: maybe consider this even more broadly with our commitments to Ukraine. YEA,
Speaker 3: does that slow weapons deliveries to Israel. He made it
Speaker 3: clear that we will fulfill our obligations to Ukraine before
Speaker 3: anything goes anywhere else.
Speaker 9: So you have to go weapon system by weapon system,
Speaker 9: and I think that we have a great relationship with
Speaker 9: the Israelis on iron Dome. Iron Dome goes arrow and
Speaker 9: the rest and uninterrupted, uninterrupted. We're working on that jointly. Patriots, though,
Speaker 9: are in demand all over the globe, and we're trying
Speaker 9: to get a bunch of Europeans, like the Spanish or
Speaker 9: the Greeks to say, hey, you know what, maybe we
Speaker 9: don't need these so badly and we ought to transfer
Speaker 9: them to the Ukrainians.
Speaker 3: Well, we also try to increase manufacturing capacity on these missiles.
Speaker 9: Right, that's hard to do, Roger, I'm glad the NDAA
Speaker 9: just passed. We need to rebuild the defense industrial base.
Speaker 3: Well, we'll see what Raytheon can do about that. I
Speaker 3: know that they're expanding down south as well. Beacon Global Strategies.
Speaker 3: Michael Allen, what a Treat's good to see you. Safe
Speaker 3: travels until we see you again. He's just about always
Speaker 3: about to get on an airplane when we talked to him.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Thanks for being with us here.
Speaker 3: On the Friday edition of Balance of Powers, we turn
Speaker 3: our attention to Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2: What a day that was yesterday.
Speaker 3: With Donald Trump making his return to the capital for
Speaker 3: the first time since the January sixth attacks on the Capitol.
Speaker 3: Spent time with lawmakers. He was feted by the House
Speaker 3: and the Senate Republican lawmakers, and then spoke to the business.
Speaker 2: Community at the Business Roundtable.
Speaker 3: We walked you through all of his movements yesterday across town,
Speaker 3: and Zach Cohen joins us now with the view from
Speaker 3: the Capitol Bloomberg Government Congress reporter, Zach, it's good to
Speaker 3: see you. I wonder just the the broader impact of
Speaker 3: what we saw yesterday shaking hands with Mitch McConnell. He
Speaker 3: even got Mitt Romney in the room here. So it
Speaker 3: does seem that the establishment on Capitol Hill is all
Speaker 3: behind Trump now is that official?
Speaker 10: It does seem like the majority of both House and
Speaker 10: Senate Republicans, with a few notable exceptions, attended these meetings
Speaker 10: that were just off of the Capitol Building and party
Speaker 10: offices on Capitol Hill, and Trump was really fed it. It
Speaker 10: sounds like in both situations they wished a happy birthday,
Speaker 10: which I believe is today, And certainly no lack of
Speaker 10: unity among these two parties or excuse me, among the
Speaker 10: party as they head into the November elections, where both
Speaker 10: the White House as well as Congress, both chambers will
Speaker 10: be hotly contested and so you had people like Senator
Speaker 10: Susan Collins, Lisa Brokowski, more moderate members who actually voted
Speaker 10: to convict Trump and his impeachment trial after the January
Speaker 10: sixth insurrection op not to attend. Romney himself initially thought
Speaker 10: he wasn't going to make it, but it's like the
Speaker 10: Palm Beach was canceled, he told a few of us,
Speaker 10: and so did end up going as well. So a
Speaker 10: good indication that Republicans are trying to rally around the
Speaker 10: flag here, despite the federal convictions, despite the attempts to
Speaker 10: overthrow the election, and despite in some states the really
Speaker 10: difficult politics with Trump at the top of the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's seventy eight years old today.
Speaker 3: Huh, So the former president got a big birthday bash
Speaker 3: here in Washington. Happy Flag Day, by the way, Zach,
Speaker 3: I haven't said that to anyone yet.
Speaker 2: You're writing about.
Speaker 3: Some of the folks we saw gather around the President
Speaker 3: when he spoke yesterday. I mean, he had half the
Speaker 3: Republican Senate behind him at the NRSC standing at the podium,
Speaker 3: none beaming more I would argue than jd Vance. But
Speaker 3: as you write, Senator Marco Rubio jd Vance, Tim Scott,
Speaker 3: all praised by Donald Trump yesterday, all three competing to
Speaker 3: be his vice presidential candidate, his running mate in this race,
Speaker 3: and Zach If it's any of these three, his choice
Speaker 3: is going to have an interesting downstream effect on the Senate,
Speaker 3: which is something you're writing about today.
Speaker 2: What should we be bracing for?
Speaker 10: Right And in that meeting, I have heard from some
Speaker 10: sources that make of this what you will that Trump
Speaker 10: ended up praising Tim Scott, the Republicans from South Carolina,
Speaker 10: a little more effusively than Marco Rubio and JD. Vance,
Speaker 10: who are two other Republican senators who are in contention
Speaker 10: for the vice presidential nomination nomination. Trump has said that
Speaker 10: he plans to make that announcement just in time for
Speaker 10: Milwaukee when the Republicans meet there to formally nominate him
Speaker 10: as their pick for president. And so we got a
Speaker 10: little bit of color there. But I've been thinking more
Speaker 10: ahead to next January. If in fact, one of these
Speaker 10: three or four senators that are in contention becomes the
Speaker 10: next vice president, that would create not just an opening
Speaker 10: in their Senate seat, but potentially openings in Senate leadership.
Speaker 10: Tim Scott, for instance, is currently the ranking member on
Speaker 10: the Banking Committee with jurisdiction over Walls Street in the
Speaker 10: financial industry more broadly, and if he ends up going
Speaker 10: to the White House, then Senator Mike Browns from South Dakota,
Speaker 10: which holds billions of dollars in trusts, he would take
Speaker 10: over potentially that chairmanship the Committee if Republicans do flip
Speaker 10: the majority, and so you could see a lot of
Speaker 10: turnover not just in the White House but the Senate
Speaker 10: depending on who this pick is.
Speaker 2: It's pretty remarkable.
Speaker 3: I love the Marco Rubio geography issue here, by the way,
Speaker 3: is this real? Somebody's got to move right either. Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: if he chose Marco Rubio, would have to make his
Speaker 3: permanent address back in New York, and I guess he
Speaker 3: could do that pretty easily, certainly on paper.
Speaker 2: But Marco Rubio has even.
Speaker 3: Suggested he might move out of Florida or would be
Speaker 3: willing to to be Donald Trump's running mate, which is
Speaker 3: more likely.
Speaker 10: I mean unclear at this point. But yes, there is
Speaker 10: this constitutional requirement that both the president and the vice
Speaker 10: president on a national ticket can't be from the same
Speaker 10: state and they can't contest and the votes in that
Speaker 10: state if they are not, And I can't imagine Republicans
Speaker 10: would give up the opportunity to win in Florida's electoral
Speaker 10: College votes given how far the state has swung in
Speaker 10: their direction in recent elections. There's actually some president on
Speaker 10: that some of the mind in earlier today, then Governor
Speaker 10: George Bush of Texas chose Dick Cheney as his running mate.
Speaker 10: Cheney moved his official residence from Texas back to Wyoming
Speaker 10: so that they would not conflict with that constitutional prerogative.
Speaker 10: And so I do think the residential issue is one
Speaker 10: that they would have to figure out if Rubio, who
Speaker 10: is a telegenic rising star in the party for sure,
Speaker 10: a former presidential candidate in his own right, if Trump
Speaker 10: were to pick him, but Tim Scott Tom Cotton from
Speaker 10: Arkansas in the mixed Doug Bergen, we hear a lot
Speaker 10: about the North Dakota governor. So certainly it's not a
Speaker 10: done deal yet. I think the residency issue for Rubio
Speaker 10: is one they have to consider.
Speaker 3: That's a big question about Senate leadership, which you've already
Speaker 3: referred to. Interesting to see Donald Trump with Mitch McConnell.
Speaker 3: They're not friends. Donald Trump has repeatedly insulted his wife,
Speaker 3: and it was the first time that we saw these
Speaker 3: two together since January sixth, But boy, it was all smiles.
Speaker 3: Same of course for John Corner, who wants to have
Speaker 3: the job. John Thune wants to have the job. Will
Speaker 3: Donald Trump essentially call this if he wins reelection, who
Speaker 3: the next Senate leader will be.
Speaker 10: Well, McConnell steps down in November, Certainly a lot of
Speaker 10: Republican senator is going to be wondering if Trump makes
Speaker 10: an endorsement in that race, which he hasn't yet, that
Speaker 10: would certainly sway a lot of their decision making. Now,
Speaker 10: a lot of jockey has already happened behind the scenes.
Speaker 10: You've got some senators that have already pledged that publicly
Speaker 10: are privately to either as you mentioned John Cornyn from Texas,
Speaker 10: a former party chairman, a former whip, John Thune from
Speaker 10: South Dakota, there's another South Dakota senator for you. A
Speaker 10: number of pledged their support to him, is what I've
Speaker 10: been told so. And then there's Reck Scott from Florida,
Speaker 10: who is clearly angling for a Trump endorsement. He actually
Speaker 10: told me in Florida just a couple of weeks ago
Speaker 10: that he's hoping Trump gets involved, but hasn't predicted that
Speaker 10: would essentially be the case. Trump certainly has a lot
Speaker 10: of influence on this party and among this conference. But
Speaker 10: at the end of the day, this is an elections
Speaker 10: this behind closed doors, on a secret ballot, and so
Speaker 10: it's really hard to whip for anybody. And you're all
Speaker 10: Trump's influence is certainly present here, I'm not sure it's determinative.
Speaker 3: Always a treat to talk to Zach Cohen, our Friday
Speaker 3: treat today from Bloomberg Government.
Speaker 2: Zach, it's great to see you.
Speaker 3: Thank you, thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.