1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,960
Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information.

2
00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,200
Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? You great one? Five dollars. This is

3
00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:14,360
Speaker 2: a ra cowboy tackle ship one.

4
00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

5
00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,560
Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be human.

6
00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:30,080
Speaker 3: My goodness, Miss good You guys are prose bets, relentless,

7
00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:31,440
Speaker 3: refusing to give up.

8
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:33,360
Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, bab less.

9
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,760
Speaker 3: Welcome to the all new Fantasy Flex podcast from the

10
00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,400
Speaker 3: Action Network. I am your host, Chris Raybon, joined as

11
00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:48,599
Speaker 3: always by Sean Kerner. Glad you found us here on

12
00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:53,120
Speaker 3: our new podcast home. As a reminder between me and

13
00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:58,240
Speaker 3: Sean Kerner and new Action Fantasy expert Samantha Praviti, we'll

14
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:03,480
Speaker 3: be delivering multiple episodes every single week this NFL season.

15
00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,280
Speaker 3: Thanks as always for listening to us every season, and

16
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,840
Speaker 3: now that we've got this new feed, we really need

17
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,559
Speaker 3: your help. Please follow rate and to write a review

18
00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:17,120
Speaker 3: for the Fantasy Flex. It's the single biggest way to

19
00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,440
Speaker 3: help me out, to help showing out, and to help

20
00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:24,200
Speaker 3: other fantasy fans find us. We'll grab one Apple podcast

21
00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,880
Speaker 3: review every week leading up to week one, and Sean

22
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,600
Speaker 3: and I will pick a winner and send you guys

23
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,160
Speaker 3: some Action Network swag and today we're.

24
00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:34,199
Speaker 1: Gonna talk tight ends.

25
00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 3: We got one of our own, Samantha Pervidi, in the

26
00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,280
Speaker 3: house to talk tight ends with us.

27
00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:40,800
Speaker 1: Samantha, thanks for joining us.

28
00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me. I'm so excited

29
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,800
Speaker 2: to be here, my fantasy flex Savie.

30
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 1: Oh yeah yeah.

31
00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,720
Speaker 3: So for you guys that don't know Samantha joined the company,

32
00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:51,080
Speaker 3: how long has it been now?

33
00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 2: I joined in March, so it's kind of been a while,

34
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,040
Speaker 2: but it's all been off seasons, so I think people

35
00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 2: see me more now that the season is kind of

36
00:01:58,400 --> 00:01:58,960
Speaker 2: ramping up.

37
00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,040
Speaker 1: To know her, guys, because you need to.

38
00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:04,520
Speaker 3: We are going to talk all about tight ends the

39
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 3: te ones today, Sean, what's going on?

40
00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:08,480
Speaker 1: Man?

41
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,480
Speaker 4: Definitely excited for Samantha to join us, all three of

42
00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 4: us on a pod for the first time. Can't wait.

43
00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:16,560
Speaker 4: I'm excited to talk tight ends. I just finished my

44
00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,760
Speaker 4: tight End tiers and strategy article, so I'm ready to go.

45
00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 2: All right.

46
00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:21,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got to make sure you guys check that

47
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 3: out on actionnetwork dot com. And before we jump into

48
00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 3: kind of the tight end by tight end in terms

49
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,200
Speaker 3: of ADP, Samantha, I just want to ask you, generally,

50
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,160
Speaker 3: what's your tight end strategy heading into twenty twenty one,

51
00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,760
Speaker 3: are you going stud tight end early or are you

52
00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:41,160
Speaker 3: waiting for value more often?

53
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,120
Speaker 2: It partly depends on a lot of different factors, of course,

54
00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:46,840
Speaker 2: like if there's going to be a tight end premium

55
00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,600
Speaker 2: in that league, but also depends on where I'm drafting.

56
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,920
Speaker 2: If I can get a premium tight end like Kelsey

57
00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,359
Speaker 2: early on, I might be going that route. But in general,

58
00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,200
Speaker 2: I would say that on the onesie positions, the quarterbacks

59
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,040
Speaker 2: and tight ends, I'm probably waiting. I think there's a

60
00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,359
Speaker 2: lot of value to be had, And after that kind

61
00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,600
Speaker 2: of first two tiers of tight ends, I feel like

62
00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,560
Speaker 2: it drops off significantly and you can kind of wait

63
00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,360
Speaker 2: for those guys. So that is my general strategy.

64
00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,520
Speaker 1: Gon any thoughts on that, Is that kind of how

65
00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:14,079
Speaker 1: you're going to.

66
00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean obviously it depends on the league type,

67
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:19,640
Speaker 4: but you know, you kind of want to get a

68
00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,080
Speaker 4: top six tight end. If not, you're basically punting the position.

69
00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,160
Speaker 4: And you know, quarterback it's you know, it's okay, it's

70
00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,399
Speaker 4: a viable strategy to stream quarterback for tight end, it's

71
00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,000
Speaker 4: a nightmare. So I would avoid it if possible. So

72
00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,880
Speaker 4: I do like getting one of the top six tight ends.

73
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 4: I'm okay with pretty much where all of them are

74
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,000
Speaker 4: going at ADP. So that's pretty much my overall strategy

75
00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 4: is kind of targeting one of those top six tight ends.

76
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,640
Speaker 4: If not, I'm punting and it's very scary.

77
00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. I think the studs are worth

78
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:50,600
Speaker 1: it this year.

79
00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:52,960
Speaker 3: I think it does kind of weak into that five

80
00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 3: to six range. And then you know, as we will

81
00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,800
Speaker 3: help everyone try to figure out, you're going to have

82
00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 3: to find a diamond in the roof. You're gonna have

83
00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:02,320
Speaker 3: to find some value because the ideal is too fine.

84
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,640
Speaker 3: One guy, wait, like, you don't want to have to

85
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,400
Speaker 3: be switching guys in and out based on matchup. You know,

86
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,640
Speaker 3: these the tight end sample sized numbers in terms of defense,

87
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,080
Speaker 3: it's just a lot of volatility and randomness and things

88
00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,600
Speaker 3: like that. So hopefully we can help you guys out

89
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,800
Speaker 3: in your draft strategies. Let's get right into it with

90
00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:25,400
Speaker 3: the consensus number one tight end, that is Travis Kelcey

91
00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,279
Speaker 3: of the Kansas City Chiefs. Samantha, I'll ask you a

92
00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,039
Speaker 3: two part question. Number one, you're up early in the

93
00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,279
Speaker 3: draft in the first round. Are you going Kelsey or

94
00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,880
Speaker 3: Tyreek and then number two. Does the fact that Kelsey's

95
00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,840
Speaker 3: entering his age thirty two season, where were you at all?

96
00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,000
Speaker 2: I am going Kelsey. If it's between Kelsey and Tyreek

97
00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,080
Speaker 2: early on in that like ate first round, early second round,

98
00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,279
Speaker 2: I think that the distance between Kelsey and tight end

99
00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,359
Speaker 2: two and Tyreek and the next guy, I mean, I

100
00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,279
Speaker 2: think Tyreek is in that rate that seeing kind of

101
00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,520
Speaker 2: tier with Diggs and Adams, so I don't think there's

102
00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 2: a huge separation there. But Kelsey is significantly better, I think,

103
00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:07,680
Speaker 2: than the rest of the group. So if it's between

104
00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,520
Speaker 2: those guys, I'm definitely going to Travis. Kelsey and the

105
00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,240
Speaker 2: age thirty two season doesn't really worry me. He's just

106
00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,880
Speaker 2: been so dominant even in the past couple of years.

107
00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,839
Speaker 2: Finished this tight end one last year nearly sixty points

108
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,680
Speaker 2: more than the second guy, Darren Waller. He's got a

109
00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,560
Speaker 2: ridiculous target share, and yeah, he's just been so dominant

110
00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 2: over four seasons of the last five seasons finished as

111
00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,560
Speaker 2: the top tight end for fantasy. So not concerned at all.

112
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,320
Speaker 2: Don't think he's going to drop off this year.

113
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,200
Speaker 4: I would definitely lean Kelsey over Tyre just because of

114
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,400
Speaker 4: the drop off of the position. You know, it's pretty

115
00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,880
Speaker 4: steepid tight end, whereas wide receiver it's so deep, so

116
00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,799
Speaker 4: it's more of a gradual drop off. I'm okay taking

117
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,800
Speaker 4: Kelsey in the top five, top six. However, I do

118
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,480
Speaker 4: prefer taking him like at the end of the first

119
00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,200
Speaker 4: round because if you have let's say you have like

120
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,599
Speaker 4: pick five or six, you can probably get Darren Waller

121
00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,320
Speaker 4: to make it back to you or even round three.

122
00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,039
Speaker 4: So I've been kind of treating the draft in two

123
00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,360
Speaker 4: halves there. So love getting Kelsey at the end of

124
00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,359
Speaker 4: the first round. He gives you such a huge edge.

125
00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,120
Speaker 4: Like Samantha mentioned, he's finished as the top tight end

126
00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,760
Speaker 4: for the past five seasons and the only season he

127
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,159
Speaker 4: did it, he finished second, So he just gives you

128
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,680
Speaker 4: a massive, massive edge. And I'm not worried about him

129
00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:15,600
Speaker 4: slowing down at three or two. Even if he does

130
00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 4: decline a little bit, it's going to get offset with

131
00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,320
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes entering his prime at twenty six, so you

132
00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 4: have an ascending player like Patrick Mahomes that could offset

133
00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,480
Speaker 4: any potential decline, So I'm not worried about that either.

134
00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:28,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree.

135
00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,640
Speaker 3: I don't think Kelsey's age is going to be an issue,

136
00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,440
Speaker 3: and I think he's actually a little bit of a

137
00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,839
Speaker 3: safer pick than Tyreek, especially when you consider that Tyreek's

138
00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,880
Speaker 3: been having some health issues in camp, you know, a

139
00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,680
Speaker 3: little bit, you know, with the lower bodies, so you

140
00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:43,479
Speaker 3: never you never like to see that. I don't know

141
00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,560
Speaker 3: if it's a huge issue, but I think that just

142
00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,799
Speaker 3: kind of towes the scale a little more toward Kelsey.

143
00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,279
Speaker 3: And yeah, there's even if you have some drop off,

144
00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,479
Speaker 3: like you said, Samantha, because of the age, there's still

145
00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,039
Speaker 3: such a gap between him and Darren Waller. And you know,

146
00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 3: even last year over thirty PPR points and Waller played

147
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,120
Speaker 3: one more game and had an excellent season. He had

148
00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,720
Speaker 3: one hundred and seven catches, one hundred and ninety six

149
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,600
Speaker 3: yards and nine touchdowns and Kelsey only played fifteen games

150
00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,520
Speaker 3: still beat him by thirty PPR points thirty plus. So

151
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,400
Speaker 3: I really like Kelsey as the number one tight end

152
00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:28,200
Speaker 3: number two. George Kittle, I'm still seeing in a lot

153
00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:34,360
Speaker 3: of eightyp's ahead of Waller. Demanda, do you think that

154
00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:39,360
Speaker 3: is justified? Do you like Kittle over Waller? And what

155
00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,080
Speaker 3: do you think of the potential for Trey Lance to

156
00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:43,840
Speaker 3: affect his value.

157
00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,240
Speaker 2: So I am taking Darren Waller over George Kittle. I

158
00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 2: think we're kind of splitting here between the two In

159
00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,160
Speaker 2: Titans to Titan three, They're right next to each other

160
00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,840
Speaker 2: for me. But that said, I think that Waller finish

161
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,320
Speaker 2: is higher than Kittle in most scenarios because he will

162
00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,680
Speaker 2: see more targets and kill has more question marks in

163
00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 2: terms of his injury status and the quarterback situation. I

164
00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:10,160
Speaker 2: think Lance will probably help Kittle's value, but it is

165
00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,240
Speaker 2: still a question mark at this point. And yeah, when

166
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,600
Speaker 2: Kittle is on the field, he is super, super dominant,

167
00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,640
Speaker 2: an elite tight end, but there are injury concerns. So

168
00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,640
Speaker 2: that's why I am putting him one spot below Waller.

169
00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,720
Speaker 2: But at the same time, I think they are neck

170
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:23,080
Speaker 2: and neck.

171
00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:25,080
Speaker 1: Oh what do you think about Kittle?

172
00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,840
Speaker 4: You know, Kittle is probably arguably the best tight end

173
00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 4: in football right now, but I still think Waller is

174
00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,160
Speaker 4: clearly above him in terms of fantasy You know, I

175
00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,280
Speaker 4: think that the floor ceiling combo for Kittle is.

176
00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:39,080
Speaker 1: A little bit lower.

177
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 4: One of the only really faults with Kittle's game is

178
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,920
Speaker 4: his lack of touchdown production. He's never top five touchdowns

179
00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,440
Speaker 4: in the season. Now, of course he is due for

180
00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,400
Speaker 4: some positive touchdown aggression. I haven't projected closer to six

181
00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,080
Speaker 4: or seven this year, but still I think Waller has

182
00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,600
Speaker 4: a better chance of scoring like eight or more. So

183
00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,960
Speaker 4: that that's a little bit of a concern. And you know,

184
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,600
Speaker 4: Trey Lance, it's a bit of an unknown. I think

185
00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,640
Speaker 4: he could lower you know, the overall passing volume and

186
00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,280
Speaker 4: touchdown you know odds for Kittle, but that remains to

187
00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,840
Speaker 4: be seen. And you know, Kittle for the first time

188
00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,719
Speaker 4: really has an alpha wide receiver in this offense and

189
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,200
Speaker 4: Brandon Ayuk, so you know that could eat it into

190
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 4: his target shair a little bit more. You know, Darren

191
00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,199
Speaker 4: Waller is far and away, you know, the number one

192
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,360
Speaker 4: target and that offense. So I think he's a safer

193
00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,360
Speaker 4: bet here. I'm taking Waller almost every time over Kittle.

194
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Waller is absolutely safer.

195
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,800
Speaker 3: I agree because you look at what Waller has done

196
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,800
Speaker 3: the last two years. He's played in sixteen games both times.

197
00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,400
Speaker 3: Then you look at the Raiders offense. I don't think

198
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:42,400
Speaker 3: they have the risk of morphing into a super run

199
00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,400
Speaker 3: heavy outfit the way the forty nine ers have at

200
00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,760
Speaker 3: times under Kyle Shanahan. I do think that defense will

201
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,679
Speaker 3: be better this year than it was last year, which

202
00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 3: could hurt a little bit. And then you look at

203
00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,240
Speaker 3: Trey Wance, and he's a guy that the more games

204
00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,360
Speaker 3: he plays. I think it actually does lower Kittle's projections

205
00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 3: a bit because if if you look at what Lance

206
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,599
Speaker 3: did in college, he was a guy that would scramble

207
00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,640
Speaker 3: on over ten percent of his dropbacks. Now we know

208
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,360
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo is not the type to scramble anytime he

209
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:12,959
Speaker 3: drops back.

210
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 1: He's almost always going to get the ball out.

211
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,640
Speaker 3: So there just might be not quite as many targets

212
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,240
Speaker 3: to go around per Lance dropback as there was per

213
00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo dropped back, So that's not idea. And then Kittle,

214
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,040
Speaker 3: ever since that monster season, he has been trending down

215
00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,560
Speaker 3: a little bit with the with the health, he hasn't

216
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 3: been on the field quite as much. He's gone from

217
00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,640
Speaker 3: a you know, sixteen game season where he put up

218
00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,480
Speaker 3: one three hundred and seventy seven yards to a fourteen

219
00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,760
Speaker 3: game season. The next year we put up one fifty

220
00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,800
Speaker 3: three yards, and then just eight games last year and

221
00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,280
Speaker 3: six hundred and thirty four yards. So I think that,

222
00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,160
Speaker 3: you know, that big season. Maybe I don't know, if

223
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:58,720
Speaker 3: it took something out of him, I don't know, but

224
00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,960
Speaker 3: the health hasn't been as pristine as Waller. So for

225
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 3: all those reasons, I think that Waller is the right

226
00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:09,280
Speaker 3: choice for the number two tight end in fantasy this year.

227
00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:13,199
Speaker 3: I think Kittle is just a little bit riskier. But

228
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,080
Speaker 3: I want to get a little more in depth with

229
00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:21,040
Speaker 3: Waller because we kind of started this conversation talking about Kittle. So, Samantha,

230
00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,760
Speaker 3: does anything change I guess for Waller this year is

231
00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,360
Speaker 3: this kind of what to expect, the same, you know,

232
00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:27,839
Speaker 3: the same thing that we've seen out of him the

233
00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 3: last two years, the go to guy for the Raiders,

234
00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:34,480
Speaker 3: ninety catches in twenty nineteen, one hundred and seven last year.

235
00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is definitely what we should be expecting.

236
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,800
Speaker 2: He is, like Sean said, definitely the alpha in this offense,

237
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,120
Speaker 2: and I think that that's kind of rare in terms

238
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,800
Speaker 2: of tight ends. So you're getting a ridiculous number of targets.

239
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,959
Speaker 2: He averaged nine point one targets per game last year,

240
00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,439
Speaker 2: which is second in the league. So I think it'll

241
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 2: stay like that, if not better, moving into twenty twenty one.

242
00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,320
Speaker 2: So I think that's really what makes him such an

243
00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 2: attractive option at tight end two because he has such

244
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,280
Speaker 2: a safe FLOORA and I think he has a really

245
00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:04,040
Speaker 2: really high ceiling.

246
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean, any thoughts on Waller.

247
00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,840
Speaker 3: He went from three touchdowns in sixteen games in twenty

248
00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,360
Speaker 3: nineteen to nine in sixteen games in twenty twenty, So

249
00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:16,599
Speaker 3: do you see him kind of settling in between that

250
00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,559
Speaker 3: as far as a touchdown aggression.

251
00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, you know, his breakout season in twenty nineteen,

252
00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,400
Speaker 4: it was pretty clear that he deserved more than three

253
00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,040
Speaker 4: touchdowns on ninety receptions. I mean, he's six foot five,

254
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,480
Speaker 4: two hundred and fifty five pounds. He's a really good

255
00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,720
Speaker 4: red zone target. So I was calling for massive positive

256
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,400
Speaker 4: touchdown aggression last year. So I wasn't surprised to see

257
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,840
Speaker 4: the nine touchdowns. I was surprised, however, to see him,

258
00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 4: you know, beat out his receptions and yardist toutles last year.

259
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 4: And I think this year, with you know, Nelson Aguilar,

260
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:53,360
Speaker 4: he's leaving behind eighty two targets, thirteen team high, thirteen

261
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,760
Speaker 4: end zone targets. I mean it's possible that wall Waller's

262
00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,920
Speaker 4: target share goes op this year especially in the red zone. Mean,

263
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,360
Speaker 4: you can't expect Henry Ruggs, Brian Edwards and Hunter Renfro

264
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,559
Speaker 4: to absorb all those targets. Some are going to go

265
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,720
Speaker 4: to Waller, so it's scary to think about. You know,

266
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,640
Speaker 4: Waller's massively high four end ceiling this year, so I

267
00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,360
Speaker 4: think he could even improve this year, especially if he's

268
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,959
Speaker 4: healthy for all seventeen games. I think he does kind

269
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 4: of beat last year's number numbers as well.

270
00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:23,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's been nothing to really suggest that he

271
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 3: won't be Injuries are tough to predict, but you do

272
00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,839
Speaker 3: like to see a guy that's been able to play

273
00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:31,400
Speaker 3: full seasons in back.

274
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,720
Speaker 1: To back years. So love Darren Waller as the number two.

275
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,040
Speaker 3: A lot of times, he still goes as a third

276
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,600
Speaker 3: tight end off the board. I think that should be

277
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:45,160
Speaker 3: reversed with Kittle. Let's move on to Kyle Pitts, who is,

278
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:51,120
Speaker 3: of course in year one notoriously a difficult year for

279
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 3: tight ends. Tight Ends usually break out your two year

280
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:58,080
Speaker 3: three at the earliest. But Samantha, the market seems to

281
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:03,120
Speaker 3: have a lot of confidence in Kyle Pits with the

282
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 3: Atlanta Falcons. Do you think it is warranted Pits to

283
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,679
Speaker 3: be going over some more established guys like Mark Andrews

284
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 3: and TJ.

285
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:11,319
Speaker 1: Hockinson.

286
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is definitely the start of the next year

287
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 2: with Pitts, Andrews, and Howkinson. I think that they're very similar.

288
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,800
Speaker 2: I think you could make a case for either three

289
00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 2: of them to go number four and they would all

290
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 2: be legit. And you can make a case for either

291
00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 2: three of them to go number six and it would

292
00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 2: totally be legit. That said, I've been pretty high on

293
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,640
Speaker 2: Kyle Pits this offseason. I wrote a roundtable thing with

294
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,720
Speaker 2: Mike Randall, who argued with me against him, of course

295
00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,400
Speaker 2: because of the bad history for rookie tight ends, and

296
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 2: I totally understand that. That said, I think that the

297
00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 2: position has evolved a lot over the years. I think

298
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,680
Speaker 2: what we've seen in terms of the usage of tight

299
00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,840
Speaker 2: ends and much more of a wide receiver capacity has

300
00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,720
Speaker 2: really really just grown. And I think that that's how

301
00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 2: the Falcons offense will use him. If they use him

302
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,800
Speaker 2: more of as a blocker, which is really his biggest weakness,

303
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,800
Speaker 2: I think that they will be criminally misusing him. So

304
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 2: I think that we'll see a significant target share, especially

305
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 2: with Julio Jones no longer in that offense, and you know,

306
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,160
Speaker 2: the Falcons taking him at four overall is not just

307
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 2: like using an early draft pick. That's also like, I

308
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 2: know a lot of people thought that they might go

309
00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,640
Speaker 2: quarterback and kind of start this rebuild. So that kind

310
00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,040
Speaker 2: of made a statement, I feel like, and they're just

311
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 2: not going to, you know, not use him in his

312
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,840
Speaker 2: first year. So I think that he deserves to go

313
00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 2: for Like I said, I think the three are very

314
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 2: very close, but I totally buy into the hype.

315
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's well said, because once the Falcons took him

316
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,240
Speaker 3: at number four, not only were they saying, hey, we

317
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,080
Speaker 3: are we're going forward with Matt Ryan, we want to

318
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,400
Speaker 3: use this guy pits, but they also were saying we're

319
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,520
Speaker 3: going to live with our defense without a high pick,

320
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 3: you know, to help that, which is only gonna I

321
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 3: think kind of keep them in game scripts that would

322
00:15:58,120 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 3: favor the past.

323
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:00,720
Speaker 1: So all those things are good.

324
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 3: Sean, though, I know you're big into the median projections,

325
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,640
Speaker 3: and I got to say, from a median standpoint, rookie

326
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:13,160
Speaker 3: tight ends generally do not produce at a level that

327
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:17,800
Speaker 3: would warrant being taken as a top five tight end.

328
00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 3: So where are you on Kyle Pitts headed into twenty

329
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:21,160
Speaker 3: twenty one.

330
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so the tight end position usually takes a couple

331
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 4: of years for a player to adjust to the NFL.

332
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 4: So I mean to put things in perspective. In order

333
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 4: for Kyle Pitts to hit at ADP, he has to,

334
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 4: you know, have the best fantacy football season by a

335
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 4: tight end, by a rookie tight end since Keith Jackson

336
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,520
Speaker 4: back in nineteen eighty eight, back when the only person

337
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:47,480
Speaker 4: playing fants football was my father, Ken Kerner. So you know,

338
00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 4: just putting that in perspective, that's that's what you're saying

339
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,160
Speaker 4: when you're taking him, you know, fourth off the board

340
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 4: at tight end.

341
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:54,680
Speaker 1: Now, if there was.

342
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 4: A player worth betting on, it would be Kyle Pitts

343
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,360
Speaker 4: because he is a generational talent and he's going to

344
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,760
Speaker 4: be the number two target and a pass heavy offense.

345
00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,639
Speaker 4: So you know, I probably won't be the guy taking

346
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 4: him at you know, fourth overall at tight end. But

347
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,360
Speaker 4: if he falls in me at six, like Samantha mention,

348
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 4: this tier is so critical because at the end of

349
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,560
Speaker 4: this tier, that's it for me. I'm not drafting a

350
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 4: tight end, and that really throws the wrench in my

351
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 4: overall draft strategy. So I'm just trying to get whichever

352
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,120
Speaker 4: tight end you know falls to me at like tight

353
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,400
Speaker 4: end five or six here. So if that's Kyle Pitt's, great,

354
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,960
Speaker 4: But I'm probably not taking him here for just because,

355
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 4: like we've said, you know, the historical implications of rookie

356
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 4: tight end going off aren't There aren't many examples, so

357
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:37,919
Speaker 4: you're you're taking a bit of a risk here. But

358
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 4: he does he does seem like, you know, the talent

359
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,120
Speaker 4: cable of doing that. So I'm kind of torn here.

360
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tough because I think anytime you have a

361
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 3: talented rookie, I think what happens is when you're in

362
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 3: a fantasy draft, you kind of get fomo, like you

363
00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 3: don't want to miss out on the shiny new toy

364
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 3: who just might set the league on fire immediately and

365
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,199
Speaker 3: be one of the top players at his position. But

366
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 3: with that being said, I do see some risks with

367
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 3: Kyle Pitts. I mean, number one, only four rookie tight

368
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 3: ends since the merger have had seven hundred or more

369
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,360
Speaker 3: yards receiving in their rookie years.

370
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 1: So that's really what Kyle Pitts is gonna need. That

371
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 1: and probably more to pay off his ADP.

372
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,880
Speaker 3: Then you look at the way the Falcons are kind

373
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 3: of set up here, and yes, they got Arthur Smith,

374
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:33,160
Speaker 3: who notoriously favors multi tight end sets. You know he's

375
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 3: going to be the head coach coming over from Tennessee.

376
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:40,560
Speaker 3: But you also have another capable guy there in Hayden Hurst.

377
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 3: And I'm not saying hurt Hurst is going to be

378
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 3: like schemed or game plan for targets above Pitts necessarily,

379
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 3: but it's a guy that you know he could take

380
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:51,879
Speaker 3: some snaps that you know, if you had Pits and

381
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 3: nobody else or you're like a one tight end team,

382
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 3: I think Pitts's snapshare would be a little bit more

383
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 3: locked in. We don't know exactly just how many snaps

384
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 3: he's gonna play. This could always be something like a

385
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews situation, which, ironically, Andrews I believe his rookie

386
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 3: year was also competing with Hurst and a couple other

387
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 3: guys for snaps as well, and very talented receiving tight end,

388
00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 3: but still didn't quite live up to you know, top

389
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,679
Speaker 3: five his rookie year. You look at a guy like

390
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 3: George Kittle, very talented, you know Sean mentioned probably the

391
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 3: best most talented tight end in the league right now

392
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 3: his rookie year on a pretty shaky San Francisco team.

393
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 3: Fifteen games, sixty three targets, forty three catches, five hundred

394
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 3: and fifteen yards, and then we got the thirteen seventy

395
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 3: seven yards in year two. So I do think we

396
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 3: have to kind of temper expectations a little bit.

397
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 1: With Kyle Pitts.

398
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 3: I think the value has been drafted out of him.

399
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 3: If he's going as a fourth tight end off the board,

400
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 3: you would have liked to see him, I think, closer

401
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,119
Speaker 3: to six to start at least, giving him, you know,

402
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 3: some some upside there to jump.

403
00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:58,920
Speaker 1: Into the top five.

404
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 3: But now you're you're you're really kind of banking on

405
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,879
Speaker 3: him being the best tight end, the best rookie tight

406
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 3: end we've seen ever. So uh yeah, probably a guy

407
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 3: I'm not going to have as much as much exposure

408
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 3: to as as some other people. But let's go to

409
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews, a guy who kind of similar I think,

410
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 3: you know, reminiscent a little bit of Pitts, not you know,

411
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 3: not necessarily from a pedigree perspective, but I think in

412
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 3: the way his game is you know, receiving first tight end?

413
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 1: Will he play all the snaps?

414
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 3: You know, gonna be you know, on a team with

415
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 3: that likes to play multiple tight ends, Uh, Samantha. Mark Andrews,

416
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 3: he's he's been the one that's kind of caught the

417
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 3: raw deal because I think if there wasn't this generational rookie,

418
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,719
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews would probably be the number four tight end,

419
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 3: but he's down at number five in ADP. Never quite

420
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 3: been a guy to play a full compliment of snaps.

421
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,239
Speaker 1: That's really the only thing that's held him back. What

422
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 1: do you see happening with Andrews this year's top five

423
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 1: tight end for you?

424
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 2: I think he's a top five guy. Like I said,

425
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 2: I think there's not too too much distance between the

426
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 2: four and the six spots here. His downfall has been

427
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 2: snap count and targets. I think he ranked eighth last

428
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 2: year in targets among tight ends. So yeah, the scheme

429
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 2: definitely doesn't favor him. That said, he's super, super consistent,

430
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 2: and he gives of the three guys in this year,

431
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: probably I think the safest range of outcomes. So I,

432
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 2: like I said, you could definitely make a strong case

433
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 2: for him to be taken it four, so it really

434
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: could go either way. You know, he finished his tight

435
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: end five last year. I think that's a very reasonable

436
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 2: expectation for him this year.

437
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 3: The great thing about him is, even though the scheme

438
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 3: and some other things don't necessarily favor him in terms

439
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 3: of the low pass volume, he is essentially their number

440
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 3: one target, right so when he's on the field, they're

441
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 3: looking for him.

442
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: His target per route numbers are really good.

443
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 3: Sean ten touchdowns in twenty nineteen from Mark Andrews seven

444
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty. Is this a we can count on

445
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 3: for that high number of touchdowns year in year out,

446
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 3: Because if not, then that's where I think it starts

447
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 3: to get shaky. That's where I think the floor starts

448
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 3: to really decrease, and maybe he's not worth that pick

449
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: if we can't, you know, lock in those touchdowns. So

450
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: where are you on that touchdown production for Mark Andrews.

451
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think certainly we can bank on him being

452
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 4: a pretty prolific touchdown score. You know, it's funny that

453
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 4: that year he broke out, you have ten touchdowns he

454
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 4: did on limited snaps, Like you said, he was competing

455
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 4: with Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst, and then last year,

456
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 4: especially after Nick Boyle went down and Hayden Hurst is

457
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 4: on the Falcons, he was averaging eighty to eighty five

458
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 4: percent routes run per dropback, but his efficiency took a hit.

459
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 1: So that's why I think he does.

460
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 4: Offer a pretty high floor now with the playing time,

461
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 4: but also he has a super high ceiling if he

462
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 4: were to return of those efficiency levels we saw back

463
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 4: in twenty nineteen. I think you could kind of put

464
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 4: some blame on Lamar Jackson last year. I mean, Mark

465
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 4: Andrews finishes the tight end five despite Lamar Jackson having

466
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 4: a really bad season, So I think I personally, I'm

467
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 4: expecting Lamar Lamar Jackson to bounce back in a big

468
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 4: way this year, and Mark Andrews will certainly benefit. So

469
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 4: that's why right now he's my tight end four. Granted

470
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 4: I have about one fantasy point separating these three tight ends,

471
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 4: so it's not that big of a deal, but right

472
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 4: now I have him over a Kyle Pits and TJ. Hawkinson.

473
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know the snaps are always going to

474
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: be I think what you have to look for for

475
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 3: Andrews because yeah, his routes per drop back went up

476
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 3: a little bit, but he's still only played eighty percent

477
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 3: of the total snaps once last year. That was in

478
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: Week eleven against the Titands. He only played more than

479
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,239
Speaker 3: seventy percent of the snaps four times. So you know,

480
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: it's kind of gamescript dependent in a way, right, like

481
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 3: you think of running backs like that, But it's if

482
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 3: the Ravens are in their run heavy scripts, this guy

483
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 3: a lot of times is not going to get as

484
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 3: many routes as we want, even if he's on the

485
00:23:57,960 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 3: field for a high percentage of them.

486
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: So it's tough with him.

487
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 3: But I do think that the touchdowns are here to

488
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: stay because Lamar Jackson has kind of proven that he will,

489
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 3: you know, he will be a above average touchdown percentage

490
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 3: guy these last two years, and those touchdowns are going

491
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 3: to go to to Andrews first, those red zone targets

492
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 3: are going to go to him first. H So I

493
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 3: still like him for for seven to you know, seven

494
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 3: plus touchdowns at least. But a guy I really like,

495
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,479
Speaker 3: and I actually me at the spot point where I

496
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 3: think I like him above Mark Andrews is TJ.

497
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: Hockinson.

498
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: So, Samantha, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Hockinson

499
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 3: now entering year three, does have a new coaching regime

500
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 3: here with Dan Campbell, new quarterback with Jared Goff, but

501
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 3: a big lack of wide receiver depth on this Lions team,

502
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 3: which means it could be a big target share for Hockinson.

503
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 3: Where are you with Hockinson entering his third year.

504
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, all three of these guys have a lot of

505
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: plus sides going for them and then a lot of

506
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: things going against them. Of course too Hawkinson, He's ridiculously talented,

507
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 2: and the things going for him would be lack of

508
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 2: wide receivers. Yeah, that's probably a criminal understatement. With the

509
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: state of the Lion's depth chart being Tyrell Williams and

510
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 2: Quintessiphus and Brashad Perriman. None of those guys I think

511
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 2: are really going to, you know, be a wide receiver

512
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: one or really distinguish themselves this season. So t J.

513
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 2: Howkinson is going to be that top option in that offense.

514
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 2: That said, what's dragging him down is going to be

515
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 2: Jared Goff. I'm very, very concerned about what we saw

516
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: last season, and there's a really good chance of this

517
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: whole offense just is very anemic, and that really concerns

518
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 2: me from a touchdown perspective, especially with Hawkinson being a

519
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 2: tight end, so you know, I think there's a lot

520
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 2: of risk. But that said, he is He's been really

521
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 2: really strong in the couple season that we have seen him,

522
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 2: so that's why he and he deserves to be in

523
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: this tier. But there are some concerns for sure.

524
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: Oh are you a Hockinson.

525
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 4: So, like I mentioned, I just wrapped up my tight

526
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 4: end tiers and strategy article and I pretty much found

527
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 4: that TJ. Howkinson is the most valuable tight end and

528
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 4: my overall draft strategy. Like I mentioned, this tier, it's

529
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 4: so tight, but once it's off the board, that's it.

530
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: Like my plans are out the window and I'm punting

531
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: the position altogether. And you know, TJ. Hawkinson is usually

532
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 4: the last tight end drafted from this tier, which is

533
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 4: if you have read my articles, I love taking players

534
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 4: at the end of a tier before he drop off.

535
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 4: So you know, when I go in my draft, I

536
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 4: would love to come out with TJ. Hawkinson, but it's

537
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 4: a bit risky because if he gets taken off the board,

538
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 4: I'm screwed. So that's why I call it my most

539
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 4: important tight end in my draft. But you know, you

540
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 4: guys mentioned all the reasons I'm you know, in love

541
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 4: with him.

542
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: This year.

543
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 4: He's twenty four, entering year three. I mean he's he's

544
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 4: entering his prime. He's gonna be Goff's number one target

545
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 4: this year. The Lions probably have the worst wide receiver

546
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 4: depth chart in the league. But also you know Tyler

547
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 4: Williams and Brashad Perrittman, they're more of the deep threat

548
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 4: type of receivers that Jared Goff really doesn't like targeting,

549
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 4: So that could lead to even more targets for TJ.

550
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 4: Howkinson and the Lion should provide plenty of negative game scripts.

551
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 4: So I'm not worried about pass volume or anything like that.

552
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 4: I just consider I'm a really high floor ceiling type

553
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 4: pick and just one of the most valuable picks I

554
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 4: think you can make in rounds five or six.

555
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Hockinson.

556
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 3: I think when I look at this tier, I think

557
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 3: he's the guy over at Kyle Pitts who but you know,

558
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 3: rookies do have that cap ceiling. Andrews, I think is

559
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 3: going to have a cap ceiling because of the low

560
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 3: pass volume and because of the snapcowns. I don't really

561
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: see that cap ceiling for TJ.

562
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: Hockinson.

563
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 3: I think he's that one tight end in the second

564
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 3: tier that could legitimately finish as the tight end one

565
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 3: overall if things break right. I think he's the one

566
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: guy that could truly challenge Kelsey, challenge Darren Waller in

567
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 3: that next tier because even the things that kind of

568
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 3: work against him maybe in theory, like a quarterback downgrade

569
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,360
Speaker 3: to Jared Goff. You know, as you mentioned, Sean, this

570
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 3: is a guy who and we've gotten reports in camp

571
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 3: that doesn't isn't throwing the ball down the field. You

572
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 3: have a bad team, So that's that means more pass

573
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: scripts you have. So you have so many things kind

574
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 3: of working in Hockinson's favor here that I think you

575
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 3: could see one of those Kittle like seasons where let's

576
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 3: remember Kiddle had that thirteen hundred yard season, not just

577
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: because of his talent and everything, but because of that

578
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: was before San Francisco's defense was really great. That was

579
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 3: before San Francisco was really a great team. And so

580
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: you had this situation where they didn't have a great

581
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 3: wide receiver depth and they were behind, and you know,

582
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: had a quarterback that wasn't really going downfield either, and

583
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 3: Jimmy g and everything just kind of worked out. And

584
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: I could see that season for TJ Hockinson in his

585
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 3: range of outcomes. You can't really see it for Andrews

586
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 3: or Kyle Pitts, as talented as they are. So really

587
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 3: like TJ. Hockinson as that number one tight end, you're

588
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 3: drafted in that second tier.

589
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: So as a te four.

590
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: Let's go to the back half because this is where

591
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 3: things start to get really dicey. Noah Fan is the

592
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 3: tight end seven off the board, Samantha. He has a

593
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: good defense, he has there's a crowded wide receiver corps,

594
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 3: you know, shaky quarterback play, maybe there's a lot of

595
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: things kind of getting in the way of Fan. Who

596
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: I look at is like the TJ Hockinson. I feel

597
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 3: like fans the guy with everything going wrong, you know,

598
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 3: for him in terms of the circumstances, kind of opposite.

599
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: But where are you on no offense?

600
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough because I feel like I was definitely

601
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: all in on fans breakout last season, and he's obviously

602
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 2: extremely talented, has all the physical attributes to be really

603
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: successful tight end. Now that said, he's got a lot

604
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 2: of working against him. You mentioned the defense, the crowded

605
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 2: receiver corp. You know, I think Judy and Courtland Center

606
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: are gonna have great years, And yeah, the shaky quarterback situation.

607
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 2: At this point, I think Locke is the betting favorite

608
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 2: of plus one hundred to take that job, which I

609
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: kind of assume is not great for fans. I don't

610
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 2: know where you guys actually stand on which quarterback is

611
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 2: going to be better for fans, since like tight ends

612
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: generally can overcome some shaky quarterback play. But yeah, I

613
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: mean a lot of things have just not set him

614
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: up for success. So it's really difficult to make a

615
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 2: case for him at tightand seven. I think, you know,

616
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: he's fallen a lot in a lot of drafts that

617
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 2: I've done into the double digits, maybe into tight end

618
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 2: ten through twelve, and you know, I think you could

619
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: definitely make a case for him to be down there

620
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 2: as well.

621
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it just seems like he's a guy that could

622
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: frustrate despite all the talent.

623
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: But Sean, where are you on Noah fan?

624
00:30:58,720 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: Yeah?

625
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 4: So I have nothing wrong with Noah Fense. I think

626
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 4: he's one of the best up and coming tight ends

627
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 4: in the game. But you know, as you mentioned this,

628
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: this defense should be pretty good, the quarterback situations really subpar,

629
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 4: and it's a crowded, wide received depth chart, Like it's

630
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 4: hard to see how fan's going to provide you the

631
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 4: consistent you'd want from a tight end. That's why I'm

632
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: saying I'm avoiding this tier altogether, because you can make

633
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 4: a case for like the next eight to twelve guys,

634
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 4: like they all have a compelling case why they could

635
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 4: hit or why they could bust. And I looked last year,

636
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 4: we were sort of in a similar situation where guys

637
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 4: like Evan Ingram, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee, and Hunter Henry

638
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 4: we're going in this range, you know, round seven through eight,

639
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 4: and I feel like if you were to use a

640
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 4: round seven or eight draft pick on them, you would

641
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 4: hang on to them for a little bit too long

642
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 4: because they all became droppable at points last year. So

643
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 4: it's sort of the sunk cost fallacy where you're just

644
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 4: hanging on them just because you spent high draft capital

645
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 4: on them. But that's you kind of want flexibility in

646
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 4: this range because there's some guys that could pop up.

647
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 4: Last year, it was Logan Thomas Robert Tunyan like guys

648
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 4: like that you probably messed out on because you're hanging

649
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: on these guys because you drafted them so early. So

650
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 4: I think at this point in the draft, it's better

651
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 4: just punt, take a flyer late in the draft and

652
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 4: just kind of play the waiver wire until you get

653
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 4: a guy that hits, or you can just draft on

654
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 4: the top six tight ends like we've been saying. But

655
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 4: that's kind of why I'm avoiding a guy like Fan,

656
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 4: where I think he does deserve to be the Titan seven,

657
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 4: it's just he sits atop a massive, massive tiers, So

658
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 4: that's why I'm probably not going to be drafting him

659
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 4: too much.

660
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there.

661
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 3: Fan is kind of strikes me similarly to Kyle Pitts,

662
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: where the talent is going to get a lot of

663
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 3: smart people on board, but it just seems to me

664
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 3: that at this average draft position, everything's going to have

665
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 3: to go right just for him to pay it off,

666
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 3: and there's not a lot of room.

667
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: For him to beat it.

668
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 3: Because even if you think Fan is more talented than Hockinson,

669
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 3: you have to consider the likely target difference on a

670
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 3: week two week basis, just because the Lions are likely

671
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: going to be bad because there's no there's not the

672
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: same type of target competition coming from the wide receiver

673
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 3: position for Hockinson that it is for fans. So yeah,

674
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 3: I could see not paying off, not even being a

675
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 3: top sent tight end. He was eleventh last year, but

676
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 3: I could see him in that same range. And I

677
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: think it's just going to be very frustrating from one

678
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 3: week to the next to actually predict when he's going

679
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 3: to have a big game, because he will have big games.

680
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: He's very talented.

681
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 3: The defense does have other guys to worry about, but

682
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 3: there may not be much of a rhyme or reason

683
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: to who goes off when in this Denver receiving course,

684
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 3: especially if their defense is as good as it looks

685
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 3: on paper. Dallas Goddard, this is a guy I think

686
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 3: we've been wanting to love since he was drafted by

687
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 3: the Philadelphia Egles, and now he's like a tease because

688
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 3: the Eagles keep saying, or we keep hearing, zach Ertz

689
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 3: is gone, he's going to be traded, but he's still there.

690
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 3: There's reports that he might go this team or that team,

691
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 3: but he's still there, and he's actually been having a

692
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: pretty good camp. So, Samantha, how are you treating Goddard

693
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 3: given that Ertz is still on the roster as of

694
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 3: early August.

695
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really difficult because I think he is he

696
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: vaults himself into that second tier with Hockinson, Andrews and

697
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 2: Pitts if Ertz is not on the field. But that said,

698
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 2: the ghost of Earth's is lurking and we really don't

699
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 2: know how that's going to work, and I feel like

700
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 2: the Eagles will use two tight ends if earth stays.

701
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: So it's very difficult to say. I think, like you said,

702
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 2: he's a guy that I feel like the fantasy community

703
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: has just been waiting for his big big year and

704
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 2: he finished as ted and nineteen through eleven games last season.

705
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: So like I said, I think he has the potential

706
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: to be up there with the next year, but the

707
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 2: opportunity right now isn't looking super super great, especially with

708
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 2: a scheme that may not necessarily favor a ton of

709
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 2: throwing at Eagles.

710
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, because I think I think that's very well put

711
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 3: because if Jalen Hurts remains a quarterback, it's similar situation

712
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 3: to what I think you know could happen with if

713
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 3: Trey Lance takes over in San Francisco, where these guys

714
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 3: just scramble on you know, ten percent plus of their dropbacks,

715
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 3: and so that's going to take a few targets away.

716
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: And you're also probably just going to call a less pass.

717
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 3: Heavy game plan, you know, with a guy like Jalen

718
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 3: Hurts than you had with Carson Wentz. I think, you know,

719
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 3: for all those years. So it's a little bit of

720
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 3: a weird situation. I think that Goddard could be like

721
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 3: a Hockinson if if it were for the pass volume

722
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 3: if ERT's left, because I think the Eagles may still

723
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 3: be on the bad side. I think near the bottom

724
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 3: of the division some pass heavy game scripts not a

725
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 3: lot at wide receiver, especially if DeVonta Smith is struggling

726
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 3: with any type of injuries that winger. So I do

727
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: think there's that upside there, but it hasn't fallen quite

728
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 3: into place yet the way it has for Hockinson. Sean,

729
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 3: where are you on Dallas Goddard. I know you've always

730
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 3: been pretty high on him over the over the years.

731
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, last year I remember banging the druma on just

732
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 4: drafting him as a high upside stash just in case

733
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 4: zach Ertz went down, So I am very you know,

734
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 4: interested to see what happens with zach Ertz if he

735
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 4: stays in Philly. Like you're overpaying for Goddard and another

736
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 4: guy that I said, like you're gonna hang on for

737
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 4: too long because you're spending high.

738
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: Draft capital on.

739
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 4: But even if zach Ertz were to get traded, I

740
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 4: don't think Goddard would necessarily come close to the tier

741
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 4: we talked about with Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews and t J. Hawkinson.

742
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 4: That's why he's a pass for me. You mentioned it

743
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 4: like it would be one thing if you know Ertz

744
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 4: got traded away and Carson Wentz was still quarterback. We

745
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 4: know that Carson Wentz loves targeting his tight ends. We're

746
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 4: still unsure what to expect from Jalen Hurts, but you know,

747
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 4: last year in a three game sample, granted it's a

748
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 4: small sample size, but when Jalen Hurts quarterback and zach

749
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 4: Ertz was there, god Her finishes the tight end twenty five.

750
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 4: So you know, not a fan of small sample sizes,

751
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 4: but that was not great to see. So you know,

752
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 4: Goddter has a ton of downside. Obviously, I think you know,

753
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 4: I'm a Dallas Goddard stand I think he has top

754
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,959
Speaker 4: five potential, but just there's too many factors going against

755
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 4: him right now to warrant taking him at tight end eight.

756
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

757
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And so let me ask you this, Sean, if

758
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 3: if Ertz is traded, let's say he's traded, where did

759
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 3: where does God he end up.

760
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 1: In your rankings?

761
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 4: I think he would definitely be tight end seven. And

762
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 4: I think he'd actually be his own tier between the

763
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 4: tier four of Pitts, Hawkinson and Andrews and then Dallas Goddard

764
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 4: by himself and then the next four or five guys.

765
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 4: So I think he would make a case to be

766
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 4: in his own tier where he would be a good

767
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 4: backup plan. I keep talking about like t J. Hockkinson's

768
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 4: go big or go home plan for me, Like I

769
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 4: want him, but if I don't get him, I'm screwed.

770
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 4: Dallas Goddter would now be sort of a safety net

771
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 4: play for me if Arts were traded away. That's how

772
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 4: I'd do it.

773
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 1: What about you, saman do you see god it kind

774
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 1: of in his own tier at te seven if if

775
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 1: Urch is traded or you still put him in that,

776
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 1: you know wump with all the other guys.

777
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you could definitely make a case for

778
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 2: him being at the bottom of that second tier or

779
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 2: in a tier of its own as Sean Puttett. Yeah, yeah,

780
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 2: I think when I said that he could be in

781
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: that tier, a lot of things would have to go

782
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: right or it's being gone, and maybe a little bit

783
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: of a shift in that offense. Hopefully the Eagles are

784
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 2: a little bit of a better team in that scenario.

785
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it would be difficult for him

786
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:05,240
Speaker 2: to necessarily finish in that tight end four to six range.

787
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, he feels like a little bit below those guys,

788
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 2: but it would certainly improve his status.

789
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 3: Speaking of improving their status, Logan Thomas was an NFL

790
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 3: journeyman who made a position switch heading into last year

791
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 3: and then he became one of the most prolific sight

792
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: ends in the league. Now he's going as the ninth

793
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,760
Speaker 3: tight end off the board. Samantha thoughts on Logan Thomas

794
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 3: because this dude just came out of nowhere last year.

795
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a couple of guys that I feel

796
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 2: like just came out of nowhere that were in that

797
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: group of like Robert Tunian, but also not even just

798
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 2: tight ends. I mean, like James Robinson comes to mind,

799
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 2: and that group of people that like we just really

800
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 2: didn't necessarily know a ton about and even on his

801
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: own team. Antonio Gibson, Like, I think that it's interesting

802
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 2: because in some sports, like for instance, in like fantasy baseball,

803
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 2: there's a huge like Yankees premium that you pay. I

804
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 2: think there's the opposite for Washington, lot of like normal

805
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 2: laypeople drafts that people just have for so long thought

806
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 2: that the Washington football team was kind of trash and

807
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 2: no one really wanted any part of them for fantasy purposes.

808
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 2: So interestingly, Logan Thomas being at nine, like I got

809
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: him in the last spot of a CVS expert draft actually,

810
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 2: which literally seems egregious to me that I got him

811
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 2: in the last pick, Like yeah, So, I mean, I

812
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: don't think that I'm not expecting Titans six numbers, which

813
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 2: is where he finished last year in PPR, but in

814
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 2: half PPR. But I certainly think that he deserves to

815
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: be in this tier. He could certainly finish anywhere between

816
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: I think seven and ten feels reasonable. Washington had one

817
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:51,479
Speaker 2: of the best sneaky free agencies and off seasons, I think,

818
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 2: so they'll be competitive. One thing that does maybe maybe

819
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 2: concern me a little bit is Ryan Fitzpatrick's track record

820
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 2: with Fantasy tight ends, not being super super high on

821
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: tight ends in the past, so we'll kind of see

822
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: how that offense plays out. But that said, Ryan Fitzpatrick

823
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 2: is a significant upgrade from their weird menagerie of quarterbacks

824
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 2: last year, so I have high hopes for him.

825
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Logan Thomas, Man, you know Ryan Fitzpatrick. You start

826
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 1: to say, oh, well, Fitzpatrick, maybe he hasn't been the

827
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 1: best for tight ends, but you look at the guys

828
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: they were trotting out last year. I mean, Alex Smith,

829
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:34,760
Speaker 1: Taylor Heinike, Kyle Allen. It just wasn't a great group

830
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks.

831
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 3: So I do think that that situation will improve regardless, Sean.

832
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: Where are you on, mister Logan Thomas.

833
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm okay with Thomas going ninth off the board

834
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 4: at tight end. You know, I think you're sort of

835
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 4: buying playing time at this point. You know, only Travis

836
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 4: Kelcey ran more routes than him last year. That's such

837
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 4: a critical stat when it comes to tight ends too,

838
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 4: because not all tight ends and you know, run a

839
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 4: lot of routes.

840
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: It's a position.

841
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 4: Where you can block a lot and you know, get

842
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 4: phase out of the passing game. So I think that

843
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 4: is the main selling point with Thomas. But he was

844
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 4: pretty inefficient with his routes last year. He had a

845
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 4: one point one four yards per route run, which was

846
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 4: thirty second out of forty three tight ends, which is

847
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 4: not good, you know, and his target chair will probably

848
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 4: take a hit. Now that they made a significant upgrade

849
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 4: at wide receiver two with Curtis Samuel and even Adam

850
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 4: Humphreys in the slot, I think could siphon playing targets

851
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 4: away from Logan Thomas. So I think the lesson with

852
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,400
Speaker 4: Logan Thomas is what Samantha said. You know, she was

853
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 4: able to get him the last round last year. I

854
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 4: think those are the kind of guys went to to

855
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 4: this range that we're trying to hit on. I mean,

856
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 4: every year there seems to be a guy that breaks out.

857
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 4: Last year's Robert Tunny and Logan Thomas. The year before

858
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 4: that it was Darren Waller, year before that was George Kittle.

859
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 4: So I think in this range, I'll pass at all

860
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 4: tight ends and you know this round seven through nine

861
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 4: ADP and then just you know, shoot for the moon

862
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 4: later in the draft and play the way I think

863
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 4: Logan Thomas is kind of an example that you can

864
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 4: kind of strike gold later on at tight end.

865
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: I'm actually okay with Thomas here.

866
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 3: He's one of the few guys in this tier, in

867
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 3: this like back half of the tight ends that I'm

868
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 3: okay with, and it is because of the playing time.

869
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 3: Routes are just so hard to come by for tight ends,

870
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 3: and Logan Thomas forget routes like this is this is

871
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,720
Speaker 3: a guy who was on the field as a blocker

872
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:27,240
Speaker 3: and as a receiver.

873
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 1: He just wasn't coming off. His median snap count.

874
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 3: His median snap rate, I should say last season was

875
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:39,279
Speaker 3: ninety five percent. That is unheard of for a tight end.

876
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 3: He's essentially not coming off the field. And he had

877
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 3: a thirty two point one percent red zone target share

878
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 3: last year with which was fourth in the entire league,

879
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: so and of course leading the Washington football team.

880
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 1: So just a couple of really good.

881
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 3: Indicators that he should have a high floor even if

882
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 3: he is somewhat inefficient relative to his peers that are

883
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 3: getting so much playing time. But I do think some

884
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 3: of that inefficiency was also due to the quarterback situation

885
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 3: last year.

886
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 1: I mean, there's not gonna.

887
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 3: Be that many yards per route room when you're talking

888
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 3: about Kyle Allen and Alex Smith and Taylor Heineke, because

889
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 3: there's not many yards per dropback, not many yards per

890
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 3: attempt there.

891
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 1: So I do like Thomas.

892
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 3: I think he's the one guy that I really feel

893
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 3: like he won't kill you, even if he doesn't even

894
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 3: if he's not a sexy pick. And also I think

895
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 3: when it comes to like this Washington wide receiver to you.

896
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 1: Know, upgrade, like on paper, they added.

897
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 3: Some guys, but I don't know how much it's truly

898
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 3: gonna affect Thomas because I think number one, I don't

899
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 3: know if they're gonna use Curtis Samuel the right way

900
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 3: given that they kind of used him as an outside

901
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 3: receiver and that was really what kind of Washington what

902
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 3: they would need a little more, you know, if they

903
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 3: were going to upgrade on let's say a guy like

904
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: Cam Sims or whatever, but also like and then Adam Humphries,

905
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 3: I mean Adam Humphries is a cut candidate, like.

906
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: He may not make the team.

907
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,959
Speaker 3: So we just really don't know exactly what's gonna happen,

908
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:09,760
Speaker 3: Diamie Brown.

909
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 4: I think you're projecting Humphreys for over sixty receptions though,

910
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 4: what happened to that?

911
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 3: I mean, the more I read about Camp, it's just

912
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 3: not set in stone, like it's just it's we don't

913
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 3: yet know exactly, and it's Samuel's been struggling with injuries,

914
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 3: so we really just don't know what.

915
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: They're gonna do.

916
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 3: And I think a lot of it is gonna depend

917
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 3: on Brown and how much he develops. You could see

918
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 3: a starting lineup with Brown, with mclauren Brown and and

919
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: you know Sims, or you could see it with you know,

920
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 3: a true slot guy like Humphrey's like we or Samuel

921
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: on the slot, Like, we don't know what's gonna happen

922
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: based on the injuries and everything. But I just think

923
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 3: it's hard to come by that that like ninety plus

924
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 3: percent snapshirt tight end.

925
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 1: So I was I'm fine with Thomas. I'm not avoiding him.

926
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,240
Speaker 3: It's not sexy, but I think you do give yourself

927
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 3: some interesting upside anytime you're talking about a guy that's

928
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 3: going to be on the field for almost every snap

929
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:00,720
Speaker 3: at this position.

930
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 1: All right, speaking of.

931
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 3: A guy in snaps Rob Gronkowski kind of on the

932
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 3: other end of that, not a guy at this stage

933
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:11,959
Speaker 3: in his career that is going to play a full

934
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: compliment of snaps Samanthic that you have Gronk who turned

935
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 3: into more of a blocker during the Bucks Super Bowl

936
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 3: run in the postseason, you still have Cameron Braik there

937
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 3: and you have Oj Howard.

938
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 1: Is Gronk a top synsite end?

939
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 3: Giving all of this, you know, uncertainty or what do

940
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:30,439
Speaker 3: you think of Bronk headed into this year?

941
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, he finishes tight end a last season and I

942
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,359
Speaker 2: have no problem taking him the top twelve tight end.

943
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 2: I don't feel with any certainty that he's going to

944
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 2: finish as a top ten guy. I mean, I don't

945
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 2: think there's a huge difference between there. But you know,

946
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 2: we did see a period of him kind of readjusting

947
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: to the league, getting back into shape, and then kind

948
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 2: of getting getting momentum towards end of the season. Yeah,

949
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 2: we did see him as attle bit of a more

950
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 2: of a block or two. And I am a little

951
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 2: concerned about Oj Howard, Like he's a guy that I

952
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: actually had as a top sleeper can last season, gets

953
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 2: injured really really early he was on my Scott fishball team.

954
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 2: Cool stuff, But so I think he will take away

955
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 2: some snaps, but you know that chemistry with Brady and

956
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 2: all that, I think he gives you a nice you

957
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 2: know floor later later in the draft. So if you're

958
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: going to wait on tight end, I think Gronk makes sense,

959
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 2: you know, as a as a late run GUYO.

960
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 1: Where are you on Gronk?

961
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 3: Samantha mentioned she thinks he has a pretty high floor.

962
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 1: Is that how you see it for Gronk?

963
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 4: He has a high floor in that you know this

964
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 4: this is going to be one of the best offenses

965
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 4: again this year. So he's a touchdown dependent tight end

966
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 4: that will probably score a lot of touchdowns. So that's nice,

967
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 4: but you should not be drafting him number ten at

968
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 4: tight end. This is an ADP that kind of makes

969
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 4: sense in like your home league, where you know he

970
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 4: has the name recognition, he could go on the top ten.

971
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 4: But like expert high stakes drafts, he's going as low

972
00:47:57,280 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 4: as like tight end eighteen. There's just too much not

973
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 4: to like about him this year. Samantha mention it oj Howard,

974
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 4: I mean, Rob Gronkowski was pretty much irrelevant weeks one

975
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 4: through four when oj Howard was playing. OJ Howard was

976
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 4: the top fancy tight end for the Bucks, and then

977
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 4: we didn't see Gronk really break out until OJ Howard

978
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 4: went down. Well, OJ Howard's back, So I'm expecting Gronk,

979
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 4: you know, to be more of a two to three

980
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 4: way tight end committee. It's a mess. I'm avoiding Gronk

981
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 4: at all costs in this range. Yeah, don't take him

982
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 4: inside the top ten.

983
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kinde of with you.

984
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: I don't actually think he has that high of a

985
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 3: floor because there's just so much uncertainty with how this

986
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 3: tight end rotation is going to break out. And Gronk

987
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 3: is a very respected and valued blocker, even at this

988
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 3: stage in his career, and that's why I think you

989
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 3: saw him disappear in terms of the offense at times,

990
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,840
Speaker 3: and this Tampa Bay offense, even though you have a

991
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 3: high floor and in the sense of Tom Brady's at quarterback,

992
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 3: we saw what he can do even at his advanced age.

993
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:03,240
Speaker 3: You're also competing with Mike Evans, You're competing with Chris Godwin,

994
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 3: You're competing with Antonio Brown, You're competing with Giovanni Bernard. Maybe,

995
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 3: So I mean, there's just so many targets on this

996
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 3: team to go around that on a week two week basis,

997
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 3: I just feel like I'm not going to have a

998
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 3: lot of success or an edge I guess you could

999
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 3: say predicting when Gronk is going to have his big games.

1000
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 3: He had three or fewer receptions in fourteen of his

1001
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 3: twenty games last year, so that is seventy percent. So

1002
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 3: I just think there's a low weekly floor with this guy,

1003
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 3: even though he proved that he still could play and

1004
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 3: he's not like completely washed.

1005
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:44,280
Speaker 1: I think the year off did him good.

1006
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 3: Twenty games probably not ideal, you know, for him to

1007
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:48,800
Speaker 3: play twenty games.

1008
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 1: So I think the year to draft him was actually

1009
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 1: last year. This year, I just see the floor a

1010
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 1: little lower.

1011
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:58,320
Speaker 3: And I mean, this guy played in twenty out of

1012
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 3: twenty games last year. I don't know if I see

1013
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 3: that continuing, you know, going forward. Remember this guy was

1014
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,399
Speaker 3: always a guy who you counted on for a couple

1015
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 3: of miss games most seasons. So not really feeling that

1016
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 3: great about Robert Bronkowski. Mike Giseki hopefully he's feeling better

1017
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 3: recently got placed on the COVID list. But you look

1018
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 3: at him last year and he had a pretty good

1019
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 3: season all things considered, finished as the number seven tight

1020
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 3: end in PPR leagues with fifty three catches, seven hundred

1021
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 3: and three yards, and six touchdowns. Samantha, given the additions

1022
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 3: for Miami at receiver in this recent news for Gseki,

1023
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 3: but also the fact that we could see a step

1024
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 3: forward from Tua. Did Giseki hit his ceiling last year

1025
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 3: or is this a guy that can continue to build

1026
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 3: on his on his breakout.

1027
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 2: I kind of think he hit his ceiling last year.

1028
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 2: I think tight end seven is his ceiling for this year.

1029
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: I could see him finishing as the top twelve guy,

1030
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,920
Speaker 2: but he doesn't really have a huge number of targets,

1031
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 2: so that kind of makes him a little more touchdown dependent.

1032
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 2: I was concerned about the way to a looked in

1033
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 2: this offense, and you know, the additions with Jalen Waddle

1034
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 2: and everything, I think that could even eat into his

1035
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 2: targets a little more. So I don't necessarily think that's

1036
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 2: a great thing for him this season, So I have

1037
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 2: him kind of at the bottom of this tier and

1038
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 2: maybe even slipping outside of it.

1039
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems like another guy, as you kind of

1040
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 1: allude to, Samantha just with a low floor, a guy

1041
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 1: that he's being drafted here because somebody has to. But

1042
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 1: you know, he could easily go from tight end eleven

1043
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 1: ADP to like a tight end eighteen finish or something

1044
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 1: like that. Sean, where are you on Mike Giseki?

1045
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Gasecki kind of reminds me of Noah fan where.

1046
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 4: You know, I love him as a Titan. He's one

1047
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 4: of the best up and coming tight ends entering their prime.

1048
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 4: But you know, the Dolphins defense should be pretty good

1049
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 4: this year, and you know, I don't expect enough passing

1050
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 4: yards are around to you know, support more than two

1051
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,720
Speaker 4: to three fantasy options a week, so you know, Jalen

1052
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:14,320
Speaker 4: Waddell and Wolf Fuller there, it's gonna make Gaseki pretty

1053
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 4: inconsistent week to week. So you know, I don't hate

1054
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 4: his ADP at tight end eleven. I think he does

1055
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 4: offer sort of the upside you do like. But you know, again,

1056
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 4: there's guys that you can get practically in the last

1057
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 4: round of the draft that I think have just as

1058
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:31,959
Speaker 4: much upside. So you know, Gaseki, it's it's a tough

1059
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 4: call because I love him as a tight end. I

1060
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 4: think he does have the potential, but I think just

1061
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 4: the variables around him just limit him. So yeah, I'm

1062
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,359
Speaker 4: avoiding Gaseki pretty much in all my drafts right now.

1063
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:46,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, He's not a guy I'm getting much, if any

1064
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 3: of them, And the reason being is he's another guy

1065
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 3: I think is has a low floor because not only

1066
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:57,839
Speaker 3: the increased target competition, but also because he's another one

1067
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 3: of those tight ends that he's more of a pass

1068
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 3: catching specialists and doesn't always see a high compliment of snaps.

1069
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 3: So Miami mentioned Sewan that he you know, they could

1070
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 3: have a good defense this year. I have a lot

1071
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 3: of respect for Brian Flores as a head coach. I

1072
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 3: think Miami can be pretty good. So you look at

1073
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 3: at Gaseki and his median snaps last year were sixty

1074
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 3: six percent, So he could be one of those guys

1075
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 3: that he doesn't see quite as many routes on a

1076
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 3: per week basis as you need for that top you know,

1077
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 3: ten finish and then you also factor in. Miami has

1078
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 3: a lot of other blocking tight ends and guys that

1079
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,919
Speaker 3: they will bring in in situationally Adam Shaheen, a guy

1080
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 3: they just gave a big contract to. They also draft

1081
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 3: a Hunter Long, so Gaseki may not be totally in

1082
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:47,799
Speaker 3: the future plans either, and there's just a lot of

1083
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,799
Speaker 3: options to kind of rotate here. So this is a

1084
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:54,840
Speaker 3: situation that even if Miami's passing game improves overall, I

1085
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 3: don't know how much Giseki really reaps the benefit of it.

1086
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 3: I totally agree with you some I think he hit

1087
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 3: his ceiling last year. The number twelve tight end who

1088
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 3: should be going up the board now that Aaron Rodgers

1089
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:14,280
Speaker 3: is back in for twenty twenty one is Robert Tunyan, Samantha,

1090
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:18,280
Speaker 3: Is that really all we needed to see to voult

1091
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:21,239
Speaker 3: Tonyan into more so the top half of the back

1092
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,720
Speaker 3: end tier rather than the bottom. I mean, I could

1093
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 3: easily see myself taking Tunyan over Noah Fan like one

1094
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,399
Speaker 3: hundred times out of one hundred in a draft. So

1095
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 3: where are you on Tonyan? Giving that Rogers is back

1096
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 3: with the Packers for twenty twenty one.

1097
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 2: One hundred times out of one hundred, that is very bold.

1098
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 2: I totally think he deserves to be at the top

1099
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 2: tier of this. Yeah, I think he was going a

1100
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 2: lot lower because and we saw that with Aaron Jones,

1101
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: we saw that with DeVante Adams, that they were slipping

1102
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 2: a lot farther in drafts than I think, Like I

1103
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,760
Speaker 2: saw DeVante Adams going like the third round in some drafts,

1104
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:57,879
Speaker 2: and we're not seeing that anymore now that Rogers. I mean,

1105
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:01,800
Speaker 2: all things point to him playing a full seventeen games

1106
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,959
Speaker 2: this season, so that'll really help Tanya. That said, don't

1107
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 2: expect eleven touchdowns. That seems definitely outside of the realm

1108
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:13,720
Speaker 2: of possibilities. He had only three point seven targets per game,

1109
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:18,280
Speaker 2: which also makes his floor a little bit less safe,

1110
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,239
Speaker 2: I think than some of the other guys that were,

1111
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 2: you know, averaging maybe five targets per game, six targets

1112
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 2: per game. But yeah, having Rogers as your quarterback certainly

1113
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:29,440
Speaker 2: it does not hurt. It's just, yeah, a little bit

1114
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: concerning because we're coming off of a year that was

1115
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 2: totally ridiculous, finishing as tight end three with all those touchdowns,

1116
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 2: you are probably cheasing a little bit of a touchdowns,

1117
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 2: you know, coming year over year. But you know, being

1118
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 2: part of that Packers offense, I think it makes sense.

1119
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 2: You know, sometimes guys it's like you just want to

1120
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 2: buy more into certain offenses, like the Bucks or something

1121
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 2: like that. So that's part of it is that you're

1122
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 2: buying into this offense now that Rogers is back.

1123
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, that's that's there's no secret as to what's

1124
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 3: given ten value. I think, you know, Sean and I

1125
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 3: and Matthew Friedman last year just kind of argued, you know,

1126
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 3: kind of new you know, even though we were arguing

1127
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 3: different guys like whoever is that Packers starting tight end?

1128
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:15,440
Speaker 3: Who's going to have some type of value with Aaron Rodgers? Sean,

1129
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 3: touchdowns are notoriously fickle, especially at the tight end position,

1130
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 3: but there's not a lot of reliable guys. So you know,

1131
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:26,839
Speaker 3: how confident should should drafts be to target Tunyan and

1132
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:28,800
Speaker 3: just kind of hope for the best in terms of

1133
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 3: the touchdown equity.

1134
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,480
Speaker 4: Well, that's essentially you're doing. You're just hoping for the best,

1135
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 4: which is not my draft strategy when it comes to

1136
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 4: tight ends. But you know, I think Tunyan is certainly

1137
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 4: the player that benefits the most by having Aaron Rodgers clarity.

1138
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 4: I think even if it was Jordan Love under center,

1139
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 4: guys like Davante Adams and you know, Aaron Jones even

1140
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 4: would still be you know, worth you know, round one

1141
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 4: to two picks. But Tanyan, you know, he's actually draftable

1142
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 4: now with Aaron Rodgers because of the touchdown upside, But

1143
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 4: I don't think he'll be to come close to his

1144
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 4: twenty one point two percent touchdown rate last year or

1145
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 4: his eighty eight percent catch rates, So I think I'm

1146
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 4: expecting some pretty significant regression there unfortunately. And plus they're

1147
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:14,760
Speaker 4: adding two quality slot receivers in my opinion, and Randall

1148
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 4: Cobb and Amari Rodgers, so I think, you know, that

1149
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 4: could eat into his target share quite a bit. So

1150
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 4: you know, I hate leaning on guys being touchdown dependent.

1151
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 4: I don't think it's as reliable year to year. Even

1152
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers himself is not going to be able to

1153
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 4: maintain the nine point one percent touchdown rate he threw

1154
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 4: for last year. So I'm expecting enough regression from Tanyan

1155
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 4: to not overpay here at tight end twelve.

1156
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think Tonyan maybe a couple of

1157
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 3: spots higher for me. I think over guys, but I

1158
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 3: just see with less touchdown equally like Fan and Goddard

1159
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 3: and even Gronkowski.

1160
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 1: But I do like Logan.

1161
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 3: Thomas is the one guy like I can't I wouldn't

1162
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 3: comp I would still take Thomas over Tanyan every time

1163
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 3: because of the.

1164
00:57:58,560 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 1: The straight up planes.

1165
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 3: So Tanyan's kind of an interesting spot where you know,

1166
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 3: you may not he's probably worth being like the tight

1167
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 3: end eight or nine just based on the touchdown projection,

1168
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 3: But there's you probably just don't want to be taking

1169
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 3: a tight end in that range or to you know,

1170
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 3: doing it too much if if you're entering a lot

1171
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 3: of drafts. So yeah, I'm not super well on Tanian,

1172
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 3: but I'm not super high on him either. I think

1173
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 3: he's like a borderline top tight end, top ten tight

1174
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 3: end that another guy that in a given week, if

1175
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 3: he doesn't score a touchdown almost certainly will hurt you.

1176
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: So that's that's the top twelve. Samantha, I'll star with you.

1177
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,280
Speaker 3: I want to ask you, who's one guy that we

1178
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 3: haven't talked about that's not going in the top twelve

1179
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 3: that you like to finish as a startable te one.

1180
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:49,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was definitely between two guys at this point.

1181
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 2: I was really torn between John and Smith, especially with

1182
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 2: the hunter Henry Henry News. At this point though, I'm

1183
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 2: going to go with Adam Troutman just because of the

1184
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 2: departure of Jared last season. This offseason. He's being drafted

1185
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:06,000
Speaker 2: I think as ted end nineteen, and it feels like

1186
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 2: he's a really good sleeper pick, especially with Michael Thomas,

1187
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:12,600
Speaker 2: the Michael Thomas news coming out, with him being out,

1188
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 2: I think it's eight weeks or at least half the

1189
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 2: season around that, and who knows what it's going to

1190
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:18,720
Speaker 2: look like after that, what he's going to look like

1191
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: after that if he has the same explosion. So Adam

1192
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 2: Troutman feels like a guy that could definitely see a

1193
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 2: really really good role in this offense, especially with that

1194
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 2: a really clear de facto number one. Now, I mean,

1195
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: I guess you could make an argument for tra Quan

1196
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 2: Smith being the defacto number one, but I don't think

1197
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:40,160
Speaker 2: he's going to take take on you know, Michael Thomas

1198
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 2: type volumes. So I think there will be targets to

1199
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 2: go around regardless of who wins that quarterback competition.

1200
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:49,200
Speaker 1: What about you?

1201
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 4: So if I if I miss out on, you know,

1202
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 4: one of the top six tight ends, I love taking

1203
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 4: a flyer on IRV Smith much later in the draft,

1204
00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 4: so much so that he inspired my outfit today. But

1205
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 4: all signs point to a breakout season. I mean, he's

1206
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 4: entering year three at twenty three years of age. He's

1207
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 4: played behind Kyle Rudolph his first two seasons, and he

1208
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 4: will be taking over as lead tight end now that

1209
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 4: Ky Rudolph is on the Giants. I mean, we saw

1210
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 4: a sneak peek at the end of last year of

1211
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:22,240
Speaker 4: his upside when Rudolph was out of the lineup weeks

1212
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 4: fourteen through seventeen, he put up the fourth most points

1213
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 4: at tight end. So you know, the Vikings they ran

1214
01:00:28,600 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 4: the most two wide receiver sets last season, so Erv

1215
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 4: Smith is basically the number three wide receiver. They have

1216
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 4: a pretty narrow target share there, so I think he's gonna,

1217
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 4: you know, provide a pretty high floor for a late

1218
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 4: round tight end. And he does have massive upside if

1219
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 4: either Adam Feelen or Justin Jefferson go down, like he

1220
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:51,160
Speaker 4: could be a top five TI, top five or top

1221
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 4: ten tight end. So I love taking Irv Smith as

1222
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 4: a late round flyer.

1223
01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love Smith as well. I love both Smith's

1224
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 3: Irv and John U. But the guy I'm gonna go

1225
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 3: with is Tyler Higbee. I think with Gerald Everett Gahn,

1226
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 3: Tyer Higby's going to play the kind of snaps that

1227
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 3: we saw him played during that monster finish to the

1228
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:17,040
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen season, and overall that season, I mean he

1229
01:01:17,160 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 3: ended up with four catches for four point six catches

1230
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 3: for forty nine yards per game. And I think that

1231
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 3: actually is a realistic outcome given the fact that Cam

1232
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 3: Akers went down. For the Rams, you have Matthew Stafford,

1233
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:32,920
Speaker 3: so you have a quarterback geat more confident with. I

1234
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 3: just think you could see a lot of throws for

1235
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 3: the Rams, even though their defense is pretty good, them

1236
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 3: being a pass heavy team and with a better quarterback.

1237
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 3: So I think Higby could be the number three target

1238
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 3: on that team, and I think his snap rate goes

1239
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 3: up a ton, So like Tyler Higbee to maybe give

1240
01:01:49,840 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 3: us some of that magic that he gave us late

1241
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 3: in twenty nineteen again in twenty twenty one, Samantha, your

1242
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 3: top five tight end in terms of we'll go half

1243
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:02,720
Speaker 3: PPR here.

1244
01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 1: Who are your top five tight ends for twenty twenty one?

1245
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, My top five tight ends for this year are

1246
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 2: going to be Travis Kelcey, Darren Waller, George Kittle, and

1247
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 2: then Mark Andrews and Kyle Picks.

1248
01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 1: John how about you top five?

1249
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 4: My top five tight ends are Travis Kelcey, Darren Waller,

1250
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 4: George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and then t J. Hawkinson.

1251
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 1: And my top.

1252
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 3: Five tight ends for twenty twenty one are Travis Kelcey,

1253
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 3: Darren Waller, George Kittle, TJ. Hockinson number four, and then

1254
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews number five. All right, and final question before

1255
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 3: we get out of here. Most overrated tight end, Samantha,

1256
01:02:41,560 --> 01:02:42,200
Speaker 3: I'll start with you.

1257
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:45,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, most overrated tight end as things stand right now

1258
01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 2: is Dallas Godder. I've seen him go really really high

1259
01:02:48,200 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 2: in drafts, as high as I think pick six in

1260
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 2: one of my drafts, and I just think with zach

1261
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 2: Ertz kind of lingering and this offense, there's a lot

1262
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 2: of question marks. I think he's an extremely talented tight end,

1263
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 2: but it seems like he has a floor kind of

1264
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:07,919
Speaker 2: much lower than where I've been.

1265
01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 3: Seeing him go, John, how about your most overrated tight

1266
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 3: end for twenty twenty one?

1267
01:03:13,080 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 4: Most overrated tight end for twenty twenty one is Rob Gronkowski.

1268
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 4: You know, he was pretty much unplayable last season weeks

1269
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 4: one through four when Oj Howard was healthy and active,

1270
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 4: and then you know, Gronk didn't really break out until

1271
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 4: Week five after Howard went down. So now that Oj

1272
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:30,400
Speaker 4: Howard is back, you know this is going to be

1273
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 4: a two to three way tight end committee. It's gonna

1274
01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 4: make Gronk a very touchdown dependent tight end. He's going

1275
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 4: to be pretty inconsistent. So I'm avoiding him at his

1276
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 4: ADP right now. It's tight end ten. So I'm considering

1277
01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:46,040
Speaker 4: Gronk to be the most overrated for twenty twenty one.

1278
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Gronk and got it with both on my list,

1279
01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna have to go with Noah Fan just

1280
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:53,640
Speaker 3: because he's going as a tight end seven and I

1281
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:55,920
Speaker 3: really see a scenario where he doesn't even finish in

1282
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:58,880
Speaker 3: the top twelve despite his talent. You have a ton

1283
01:03:58,920 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 3: of wide receivers on the Broncos, Courtland and Jerry Judy,

1284
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:05,760
Speaker 3: kJ Hammler, Tim Patrick. You have a really good defense,

1285
01:04:05,800 --> 01:04:08,200
Speaker 3: and you have Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock, two guys

1286
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 3: at quarterback that you're not going to throw a lot

1287
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 3: even if you were a bad team. Really you're going

1288
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 3: to try to have them manage the game. So I

1289
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 3: think Noah Fan could disappoint going at the tight end seven,

1290
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 3: and those top eighty picks, you could still get a

1291
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 3: sweeper at running back or wide receiver two or three,

1292
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:26,080
Speaker 3: so I just don't see it for Noah Fan, he's

1293
01:04:26,080 --> 01:04:28,919
Speaker 3: my most overrated tight end for twenty twenty one.

1294
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:33,040
Speaker 1: Samantha, this was a lot of fun. I really thank

1295
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:34,160
Speaker 1: you for joining us.

1296
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:37,480
Speaker 3: I'm glad everyone finally got to hear you and hear

1297
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:39,160
Speaker 3: your analysis.

1298
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:42,000
Speaker 1: Tell everyone what you're up to and where they can

1299
01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:42,360
Speaker 1: find you.

1300
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:44,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much for having me. And yeah,

1301
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:46,919
Speaker 2: you can find all of my written work on Action

1302
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 2: network dot com And I've been doing a lot of

1303
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 2: these player profiles and been talking route tables with you guys.

1304
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 1: Thank you again for joining us.

1305
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:58,440
Speaker 3: And of course you can find Sean on Twitter at

1306
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:01,600
Speaker 3: the Underscore Odds Maker, and you can find me on

1307
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:04,480
Speaker 3: Twitter at Chris Rabon. You can find us both by

1308
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:07,520
Speaker 3: those same handles in the Action Network app. Go download

1309
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:11,440
Speaker 3: it and find all our fantasy content and our fantasy

1310
01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 3: football draft tool at actionnetwork dot com as well. Until

1311
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 3: next time, let's get this money.