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Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to play

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Speaker 1: your bets. And this meet Joey P. Joe P's a

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Speaker 1: Pia and this is BP NFL Monday Night football is

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Speaker 1: upon us, and it's very near and dear to Scott

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Speaker 1: Bogman's heart because his Pittsburgh Steelers will be at home

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Speaker 1: against the Miami Dolphins. They'll be without TJ. Watt because well,

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Speaker 1: those are dangerous kids and you got to make sure

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Speaker 1: you take care of yourself and others. And TJ. Watt

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Speaker 1: will not be playing in this game. Hopefully he's okay.

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Speaker 1: We're happy that he's getting sent home at least from

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Speaker 1: the hospital. Terrible news. I love all of the Watts.

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Speaker 1: It's a great family, big fan of theirs, JJ, TJ,

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Speaker 1: all the Watts, the parents, everybody's great. But look, this

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Speaker 1: was terrible news here and it's gonna have an impact

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Speaker 1: on this game and probably the Steelers the rest of

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Speaker 1: the season because this same thing basically happened to Tyrod

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Speaker 1: Taylor a couple of years ago. Now, there was a

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Speaker 1: couple of gay situation because they had a young quarterback

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Speaker 1: they wanted to play two, so you know, he can

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Speaker 1: kind of massage us however they want. Yeah, yeah, so

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Speaker 1: a little bit of that. But look, he's not gonna

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Speaker 1: play this week, and I'm always gonna play in the

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Speaker 1: month of December. Box. They gotta be honest with you.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how long it takes to

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Speaker 2: recover from this stuff. So we'll see, you know, like

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers said, don't doubt any Watts ever to you know,

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Speaker 2: come back in a ridiculous amount of time. So I

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Speaker 2: just I remember three of these medical type of incidents.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure there's been way more, but there's three that

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Speaker 2: stick out in my mind, and two of them have

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Speaker 2: happened in the Steelers. I remember the Tyrod Taylor situation,

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Speaker 2: this TJ. Watt situation now, and I don't know if

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Speaker 2: you remember, but before a playoff game, uh, Jerome Bettis

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Speaker 2: had an injection for his groin injury and they hit

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Speaker 2: a nerve it deadened his whole leg. So Amos Zaraway

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Speaker 2: was the starting running back for the playoff game.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, Yes, I do remember that.

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Speaker 2: Wow, Wow, I could not have yeah, card, So, so

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Speaker 2: I just remember two of these three incidents happening to Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Like I said, I'm sure there's a ton that I'm

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Speaker 2: forgetting and that have happened before and blah blah, but uh,

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Speaker 2: this it's just so incredibly frustrating. Like I don't know

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Speaker 2: what we'd have to do to be as bad at

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Speaker 2: our job as it is to puncture a lung of

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Speaker 2: a patient, right, But I mean it's beyond going zero

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Speaker 2: to five. I know that, So I just it's to me,

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Speaker 2: it's absurd that you can be that bad at what

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Speaker 2: you're supposed to do, specifically with the best player on

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Speaker 2: the team, you know what I mean, Like pay attention.

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Speaker 1: It too, because if there's anyone that cares a lot

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Speaker 1: about obviously you know, medical procedures and things being done

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Speaker 1: up to snuff, it's clearly aeron.

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Speaker 2: I cannot wait until Kirk Thuggins is the quarterback of

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Speaker 2: this team next year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll which.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Joe, did you see how close we were?

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Speaker 2: We should I should have been five and oh and

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Speaker 2: you should have hit your bet because we went over

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Speaker 2: and then Bucky lost four yards on the next on

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Speaker 2: his last carry to put us back under, so four

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Speaker 2: and one instead of five and oh and you lost

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Speaker 2: your parlay.

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Speaker 1: Because I did so upsetting, but you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: the cole Pit stuff. We or right on track with that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but we call it a big one. Yeah. I mean

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Speaker 1: some of them are over for it started, and I

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Speaker 1: will telling people to start. Mike Evans everywhere too. Really,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, Mike Evans is playing, you start, Mike Evans.

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Speaker 1: Mike Evans is telling he was healthy, he's playing. It

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Speaker 1: wasn't a hamstring for once.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: It was like, he's playing, He's fine, he's gonna play.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully you played him. All right, let's great, he was

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Speaker 1: he was terrific. All right, Let's get to the bets here,

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Speaker 1: and of course don't forget free stuff at the top.

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Speaker 1: AJ Brown helmets being given away right here. Go right

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Speaker 1: dot com slash contest and complete the form there newither

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Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app, leave a review of the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to the social media channels

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Speaker 1: more entries you'll receive, and we'll be announcing the winner

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Speaker 1: right here on the channel. So subscribe, ringing the bell

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Speaker 1: me something while you're at it. All right, let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at the tail of the tape for this

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Speaker 1: game between the six and seven Miami Dolphins in the

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Speaker 1: seven and six Pittsburgh Steelers. The Miami Dolphins right now,

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half is the best number you're

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Speaker 1: getting on them, minus three for the Pittsburgh Steelers, forty

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Speaker 1: one for the over, forty two and a half for

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Speaker 1: the under, plus one fifty eight on the Miami Dolphins

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Speaker 1: money line, minus one sixty four on the Steelers money line. Look,

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Speaker 1: I want to just take the Steelers money line that

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Speaker 1: they find a way to win this game and then

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Speaker 1: pair it with my favorite prop or my favorite touchdown

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Speaker 1: and just kind of just do that, like as I

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Speaker 1: have Jalen Warren score and uh, you know, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Speaker 1: money line and then get out of here because this game,

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest with the scares the crap out of

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Speaker 1: me a little bit. Especially with the Watt News now too.

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Speaker 1: It's like, oh, you're missing the best player on defense,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, I know two is no good in the cold,

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Speaker 1: and like all those things are all true.

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Speaker 2: But.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers don't make me feel warm and fuzzy in

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Speaker 1: this cold December period of time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean I think before last week to a

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Speaker 2: zero to seven below forty six degrees.

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Speaker 1: Right, and it's going to be jegrees.

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Speaker 2: So then they beat Yeah, they beat the Jets, which

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Speaker 2: I don't know how much of an accomplishment that is

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Speaker 2: with Brady Cook.

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Speaker 1: It's not at the Helm, it's not much.

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Speaker 2: So I'm taking the Steelers here at home. Obviously I'm

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Speaker 2: a massive homer here, so take that with a grain

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Speaker 2: of salt. Uh. I like the under as well, just

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Speaker 2: because I think in a game this cold, this late

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Speaker 2: in the season, Uh, these teams want to you know,

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Speaker 2: get their work in and get the hell out of there.

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Speaker 2: So I do think this is going to be the under.

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Speaker 2: U in whether this cold, you typically see less passes,

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Speaker 2: fewer passes as well. It's a lot of rushing just

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Speaker 2: because you know, the cold stiffens everybody. It makes the

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Speaker 2: muscles tighter, it makes the throw shorter and less accurate,

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Speaker 2: so it's kind of easier just to keep it between

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Speaker 2: the tackles and on the ground. So I expect a

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Speaker 2: lot of running. But I do think Pittsburgh wins this

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Speaker 2: game because of Toua's history and the cold.

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Speaker 1: I gotta say too, looking over at betting pros and

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Speaker 1: you get sixty nine percent of people or on the

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Speaker 1: side of the Steelers money line, and I usually I

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Speaker 1: don't like to ride with the public there, but I

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Speaker 1: do think it's correct. Like I just I feel like

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Speaker 1: the Steelers just find a way to win this game.

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Speaker 2: If this if this game was in September, I probably

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Speaker 2: would be picking Miami. A nice little leader here. Absolutely,

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Speaker 2: the Steelers are playing too close. They let every team

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Speaker 2: come back if they get a lead in the second

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Speaker 2: in the first half and the second half of collapses.

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Speaker 1: We heapp is tricky. Also, like that's another weird Yes,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of weirdness in this game. And you

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Speaker 1: know me, like there's a lot of good things to

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Speaker 1: invest in this weekend. In week fifteen, Monday football is

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Speaker 1: a very tricky one, but that's okay. Scott Bodin's got

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Speaker 1: some props coming off a great night again on Thursday

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Speaker 1: night football should have been five and oh, but we'll

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Speaker 1: take four and one. That's that's still pretty good. We'll

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the props here, Bogs, and

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Speaker 1: I would think a heavy dose of Jalen Warren is

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna start with. And it looks like you

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Speaker 1: agree with me. The numbers forty eight and a half

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Speaker 1: rushing yards you're taking the over in so a much.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is ticked down a couple of yards since

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Speaker 2: last night as well, So you know, gain Well has

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Speaker 2: been getting more and more. So I kind of understand

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Speaker 2: splitting maybe their rushing yards here, but Miami is allowing

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty two rushing yards per game. The

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Speaker 2: Cole game should lead to more rushing as well. He's

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Speaker 2: projected over everywhere I see on this, so yeah, like

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Speaker 2: I said, probably fewer passes in this game and more rushing.

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Speaker 2: So let's go with this over. This is a pretty

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Speaker 2: easy one to start.

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Speaker 1: All right, So the over there were jailed in world.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about DK Metcalf Obviously not a lot of

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Speaker 1: other guys seeing a lot of targets there. So the

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Speaker 1: reception numbers four and a half. I was getting plus

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Speaker 1: money on the over, I mean, seems like a good

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Speaker 1: bet to me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that that's why I like this a lot like

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Speaker 2: that Baker interception, which I wasn't sure we were gonna get,

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Speaker 2: uh you know, in that game that came a little late,

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Speaker 2: but we did get it. But this plus money, you know,

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Speaker 2: I think it really was a weird game.

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Speaker 1: Did her cousins owns the Bucks bro?

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Speaker 2: I mean, but anyway, Rogers is taking deep shots. We

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Speaker 2: saw them start the game against Baltimore with that fifty

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Speaker 2: five yarder, right, so that's all of this in one shot,

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Speaker 2: or all of his yardage in one shot. But he

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Speaker 2: also had twelve targets last week. So I just think

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Speaker 2: that this was Aaron Rodgers going in after that disgusting

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Speaker 2: pistol game where his wrists hurt and they did everything

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Speaker 2: in pistol and he still left and Mason Rudolph had

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Speaker 2: to come in and blah blah. I think he just went, look,

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Speaker 2: just let me start peppering these guys with some passes, right,

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Speaker 2: Let's open it up a little bit because what we're

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Speaker 2: doing is not working. So he hit Metcalf with everything

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Speaker 2: he could handle last week, and I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to continue in this game. Again, probably fewer passes than

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Speaker 2: you typically want in a game like this, but like

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Speaker 2: you said, nobody else in Pittsburgh is really getting targeted

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Speaker 2: on a consistent basis outside of DK Metcalf, and he's

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Speaker 2: hit this in three of the last four weeks, So

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Speaker 2: I think five catches are in store for DK here.

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Speaker 1: All right, So DK Metcalf going over there. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about Jalen Wright on the other side of this too. Again.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're still waiting for some clarity there, and

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Speaker 1: you know we're recording on a Friday to keep that

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Speaker 1: in mind. So the number for him for rushing yards

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Speaker 1: is twenty and a half. Obviously, he had a lot

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Speaker 1: of work in that Jets game. They tell us what

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Speaker 1: HN could go back in, but the game got away. Okay, fine, cool,

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Speaker 1: but do you feel confident enough in Jalen Wright with

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Speaker 1: these over on the twenty and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this one again also dropped. This was twenty three

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Speaker 2: and a half, and I think it dropped due to

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Speaker 2: the fact that a Chan is going to be up

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Speaker 2: and typically they don't go to the other running backs

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Speaker 2: that much, right, but he's going to be in a

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Speaker 2: flak jacket. This is going to be cold weather, and

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt. Here they

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Speaker 2: won four games in a row. We thought McDaniel might

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Speaker 2: be the first coach fired. I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: people kind of thought that with the way they started

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Speaker 2: this season. And he's still alive, you know, and kind

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Speaker 2: of thriving right now. This team is playing very well.

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Speaker 2: So I think that eight Chan plays, but I think

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Speaker 2: that he is going to be somewhat limited. It was

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Speaker 2: Ollie Gordon over Jalen Wright the whole year until last

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Speaker 2: week in the comments from McDaniel after the game, where look,

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Speaker 2: this had nothing to do with Alie at all. It

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Speaker 2: had been the fact that Jalen Wright had been super

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Speaker 2: on fire and hot in practice. Right, he had good

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Speaker 2: reps the whole like three weeks in a row. They've

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Speaker 2: been meaning to get him the ball more in the

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Speaker 2: game and the opportunity brought itself with this eight Chan injury,

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Speaker 2: so they went to Wright, and I think they'll do

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Speaker 2: that again, and I think he'll have more carries anyway,

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Speaker 2: because you don't want to run a chan into the dirt,

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Speaker 2: and you're gonna want to run the ball a lot

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Speaker 2: in this game due to Toua's history in the cold.

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Speaker 2: So pretty easy low total here. But the low total

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Speaker 2: was the only one I didn't get on the last

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Speaker 2: Monday Night football. My my, what was that John Dotson bet?

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Speaker 2: But I think this one is much more doable.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get another one here to a tongue

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Speaker 1: of ya loo. And now I am going and attacking

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Speaker 1: the passing yards that's coming up a little bit in

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Speaker 1: the SGP talk, But you're gonna go with the passing

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Speaker 1: completions instead. The numbers nineteen and a half are going

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Speaker 1: over or under.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna go under this one. And you know, we

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Speaker 2: talked about his struggles in the cold. Typically he hasn't

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Speaker 2: done this in any game since October thirtieth, though, and

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Speaker 2: he's only hit over nineteen and a half completions in

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Speaker 2: five of thirteen games this season. So I think with

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Speaker 2: a limited passing attack that. You know, I just think

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Speaker 2: this number of completions is not going to happen because

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Speaker 2: they won. I think he was seventeen for thirty last

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Speaker 2: week and they won that game going away, so and

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Speaker 2: that was under nineteen and a half completions, So winning

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Speaker 2: or losing, I just don't think that he hits this.

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Speaker 1: All right. Last year on the list, we have a

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Speaker 1: Jalen Wattle prop the longest reception. Bogs loves these all right,

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Speaker 1: So why is this one going to go over twenty

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Speaker 1: two and a half yards? What do you see?

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Speaker 2: I well, there's two things I see. Number One, he's

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Speaker 2: done this in nine of thirteen weeks so far this season,

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Speaker 2: and the Steelers have given up reception longer than this

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Speaker 2: in twelve of thirteen games, all but one games that

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Speaker 2: they have given up a reception longer than this. So

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Speaker 2: I think, Wow, Jalen Wattle is going to be the

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Speaker 2: guy that hit this. And this doesn't have anything to

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Speaker 2: do with totals, right, Like, it's not receptions, it's not

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Speaker 2: total yards. It's just one big play from Jalen wattles.

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Speaker 2: So I think he can get that here. You don't

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Speaker 2: Joey gonna lock him up Joey Porter has been great.

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Speaker 2: I think he's allowed three receptions in the last two weeks.

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Speaker 2: But I think when you see that he's not on

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Speaker 2: Joey Porter Junior, I think the ball's going right to

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Speaker 2: Jaylen Wadele, So I think he'll have a big one

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Speaker 2: in this game, all right.

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Speaker 1: The prop bet cheat sheet again is here for all

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Speaker 1: the props for this game and all of your bets

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Speaker 1: for week fifteen. So go to Bettingpros dot com slash

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Speaker 1: props today, download the app wherever you get your apps,

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Speaker 1: and you can see all the major passing, rushing, and

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Speaker 1: receiving categories the best value versus the projections, and then

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Speaker 1: just think your sportsbooks for free and boom. Just like that,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna find the best value in props only on

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Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheet and for the SGP tool

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Speaker 1: as well. That's over there on Betting Pros. And speaking

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Speaker 1: of SGPS, here we go. Keeping this simple again. Don't

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Speaker 1: love this game, and when I don't love a game,

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Speaker 1: bogs nose. I keep it simple. What I think I

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Speaker 1: can control the kiss, that's right, keep it simple. Stupid

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Speaker 1: this guy being the stupid so to a tongue of

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Speaker 1: ioloa one and a half passing yards. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: under this in the weather. I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: an issue here. I think the way this offense is

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Speaker 1: kind of running through the running game more in the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks too, also kind of leaning the well.

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Speaker 1: I think he gets into one seventy five one eighties range.

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Speaker 1: But Cold Night, you know, I think we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: to you know, under on this one. Then Jalen Warren again,

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Speaker 1: Cold Night gonna get to the over here fifty one

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Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards. Put those two things together

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Speaker 1: to get plus two twenty again. Is it the craziest

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Speaker 1: one you can add in the Steelers money line too,

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Speaker 1: if you want to this game and you can get

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Speaker 1: it over three to one, And I think that's not

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Speaker 1: bad either, if you want to push just a little

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Speaker 1: bit more. But I'm gonna take the two leg instead

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Speaker 1: of the three and just played a little safer because TJ.

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Speaker 1: Watt being out of the game. Look, when you lose

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Speaker 1: your best player defensively and your offense is already kind

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Speaker 1: of where the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense is, which is predictable

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Speaker 1: and very very one dimensional, there is room for error

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Speaker 1: and I just want to be careful.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. I'll say that the Steelers do have

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Speaker 2: Nick Herbig to replace TJ, so that is that much

357
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Speaker 2: better than average replacement. But sure there is no READJ.

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Speaker 2: There's no replacing TJ Watt.

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Speaker 1: So all right, So again SGP tool is available. Go

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Speaker 1: to Banking pros dot com slash parlay and that's where

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Speaker 1: you can start to look for all the same game

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Speaker 1: parlays as well. All right, let's talk about touchdowns here.

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Speaker 1: For me, it's Jayalen Warren minus one ten. Again, if

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Speaker 1: you want to throw a Warren into my parlay you

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Speaker 1: can as well. That's another option. I do think Warren

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Speaker 1: finds the end zone in this one. Of course, that

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Speaker 1: means Gainwell, we'll have two touchdowns, I'm sure.

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Speaker 2: God.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about your touchdown call for Monday

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Speaker 1: Night Football Box.

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Speaker 2: By the way, they both have four rushing touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: two receiving touchdowns. I know Warren and not well about

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Speaker 2: exactly the same. It's a coin, bro, the best to

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Speaker 2: do it here the best number I found. I think

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Speaker 2: you have the better coin there. The best number that

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Speaker 2: I found here Darren Waller plus two seventy five. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the dude has been a red zone magnet when he's

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Speaker 2: out there. I don't know how often the Dolphins are

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Speaker 2: going to be in the red zone, but if they

380
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Speaker 2: are there, Waller is the dude. So plus two to

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Speaker 2: seventy five almost triple.

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Speaker 1: Up your money.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a decent investment, all right.

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Speaker 1: So, Scott Bogman, we know, no phone calls, no text

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Speaker 1: during Monday night football because it's the Pittsburgh Sea.

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Speaker 2: You can call me or text me, I just will

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Speaker 2: not respond most likely.

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Speaker 1: Well that's for me. So I just let you enjoy

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Speaker 1: the game as much as you possibly can't enjoy the

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Speaker 1: stores in twenty twenty five and uh you know, I'll

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Speaker 1: talk to you the next day on Monday starting here. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is the Mets not winning in forty years. That's

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Speaker 1: what this is. But what are you gonna do? Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm actually all for that, you know. Baseball side here

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Speaker 1: for a second. Good that court didn't win anything. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on from it. So if you want to talk baseball,

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00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 1: go to our MLB channel because we've got content there,

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Speaker 1: Fantasy pros MLB and that stuff is ramping up big

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Speaker 1: time right now too. With all the I'm doing well

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Speaker 1: right after this. There you go. So baseball is happening

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00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,120
Speaker 1: right now, everywhere football is happening. It's all happening. Subscribe

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00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:50,639
Speaker 1: to the channel on Betting Pros. You could be with

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00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 1: us for all of it. That'll do it for us,

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00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,119
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman,

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Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy

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Speaker 1: Monday night football.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

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00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,439
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00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:13,159
Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

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Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros