1 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephano Mix, the podcast that brings 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 1: the global economy to you. And the good news from 3 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: the front lines is that getting a container ship into 4 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: port is no longer the great pitch point in global 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: supply chains. The congestion in the waters outside the main 6 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 1: US ports today it's a fraction of what it was 7 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: at the start of the year. That's the good news. 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: The bad news is that now the containers from those 9 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: ships are waiting a long time to catch a train. 10 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: Right now, there are nearly thirty thousand containers at any 11 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: one time sitting in the docks. That's three times the 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: usual number, and they're waiting seven or eight days to 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 1: get on a train instead of the usual two. So 14 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: the great supply chain snarl up hasn't gone away, it's 15 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: just got closer to home. That's lesson. One lesson to 16 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: This would be a really bad time to have a 17 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: U S rail strike, which certainly explains why the Biden 18 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: administration is now actively trying to resolve a dispute between 19 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,919 Speaker 1: US rail workers and their employers. In a few minutes, 20 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: have a fascinating conversation with the author and journalist Christopher 21 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: Mimms about the arriving today. Economy, how the route that 22 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 1: a product takes to our front door somehow became more 23 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: important than the way it was made, and why the 24 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 1: fast changing world of supply chains and overnight delivery is 25 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,839 Speaker 1: now being changed even more by the pandemic. But first, 26 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: here's Bloomberg u S Economy reporter Augustus Serreva down at 27 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: the docks. The biggest challenge facing us in the supply 28 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: chain has been the sheer strength of the American consumers 29 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: buying power. Retail sales up one cent on a month 30 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: over month basis, and it is certainly better that it 31 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: was the prior and the chair and CEO of Bank 32 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: of America Brian Moyne Andrew said he's looking at the 33 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: consumer from where he sits. He says, it's really very 34 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 1: strong and that will take us through the tightening that 35 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: we're looking at. It looks like Americans are still spending, 36 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: if not a little bit less than they had been 37 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: anticipated down. So what's gonna slowing down? Nothing? Right now? 38 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: During COVID, many Americans were working from home. We couldn't travel, 39 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: we weren't going out to restaurants, events for movies. Some 40 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: of us decided to buy furniture, sporting goods, a new refrigerator, 41 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: and all of this turned into cargo that was part 42 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: of Los Angeles executive director Jeane Siroca, who leads the 43 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 1: busiest port in the US. Things have used up a 44 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: little bit for Saroka. Recently, the huge backlog of cargo 45 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: ships at l A and the nearby port of Long Beach, 46 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: which once grew to more than a hundred ships awaiting 47 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: a chance to unload test dwindled, and the TV newsmans 48 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: that beamed on flattering images of all A's bottlenecks worldwide 49 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: are incoming around as much. Still, the improvement at American 50 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: ports has hardly fixed the country's supply chain hadas warehouses 51 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,119 Speaker 1: from Los Angeles to New York remain full. The arteries 52 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: of the nation's largest railroads are still clogged in the 53 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 1: Midwest in labor issues on the docks, railways and roads 54 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 1: are threatening to throw a ranch at The recovery COVID 55 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: nineteen and the buying frenzy it sparked exposed cracks throughout 56 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: the US supply chain infrastructure, and fixing it could take years, 57 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: said Stephanie Loomis, vice president of Procurement at US based 58 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: free forwarding firm Cargo trans Well. I mean part of 59 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: it is what what COVID really showed is it proved that, 60 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: you know, overall, our global supply chain is really quite fragile, 61 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: and it doesn't take much to upend it. And then 62 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: once it is upended, then every little hiccup becomes, you know, 63 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: becomes a tsunami. If you're finding it hard to find 64 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: baby formula and a c and even a brand new 65 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: Tesla lately, you can blame the American consumer in part. 66 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: Not even inflation running at nine point a new for 67 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 1: a year high and fears of a recession hitting in 68 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: the US have put the brakes on the turbo charged 69 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: the American consumer. The country's largest ports of Los Angeles 70 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: and Long Beach registered their busiest June on record in 71 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,799 Speaker 1: these California ports are expecting to handle even more cargo 72 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: this month as retailer stock shelves ahead of the holiday season. 73 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 1: Here's saroke again. Our nation's economy is driven by you 74 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: and me buying goods. So I think we may start 75 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: buying Hamburger instead of stake. We may buy beer instead 76 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: of fine wine. We're gonna watch our family's pocketbook a 77 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: little bit closer. We're gonna keep buying. The relentlessness of 78 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: US consumer buying has surprised analysts when unprecedented demand for 79 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: goods broke the US supply chain last year, showing crucks 80 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: throughout the process. Many analysts expected consumers to eventually go 81 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: back to spending money on flights, movie tickets, and nights out. 82 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: That should have eased the pressure on the American logistics network, 83 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: but demand for goods has remained strong so far. To 84 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 1: be sure, indicators compiled by the New York Fed City 85 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: Bank and a startup freight forward or Flag Sport are 86 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: all anticipating that, with shipping strains on demand, a painful 87 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,160 Speaker 1: spell of weaker demand might be an expert global supply 88 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: chains free costs are declining and inventories are beginning to 89 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: pile up. But importers got the message last year and 90 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 1: they don't want to risk another crisis ruining Christmas for 91 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: Americans this time around, So retailers begin this year racing 92 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: around the clock to beat these issues ahead of the 93 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: holiday season. We have a shipper, for example, that has 94 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: over six hundred containers worth of artificial Christmas trees that 95 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: were already in the port in the March April time 96 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: frame that would have been unheard of prior to the pandemic. 97 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 1: Bath Rooney, director of the Port of New York and 98 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: New Jersey, the second largest sport complex in the US. 99 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: But when you have outdated infrastructure and thousands of retailers 100 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: fighting for limited capacity, that means while more bottlenecks. I 101 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: equate this to us going to the Department of Motor Vehicles, 102 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: are going to a walk in medical center where before 103 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: they open, we and a hundred other people bull show 104 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: up thinking we're going to be the first ones online. 105 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: In fact, massive retailer is like Target and Walmart, will 106 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: wind up being first in line to get their products 107 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: shipped around the country, said loom Is, the Free Forwarding 108 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: executive in Indianapolis. In the meantime, with limited capacity all around, 109 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: smaller companies with less money to spend have found themselves 110 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: bagging actors across the supply chain to take their cargo. 111 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: You know, if if targets calling, the carrier is going 112 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: to move Target. The carriers have made it clear that 113 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: their priority is their largest customers, not so much the 114 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: rest of You know it, I say it all the time. 115 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: You know the world doesn't revolve around Walmart, Target Amazon. 116 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: There's there's billions of companies that also I forwards on 117 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: China and meet their adducts to come in, and they 118 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: only have two weeks to do it. You either put 119 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: it on a ship before you put it in the air. 120 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: But without big time investment in infrastructure, clogged supply chains 121 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: are risking becoming fossilized as the new normal. American ports 122 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: often rank as the world's most inefficient for containers, and 123 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: some parts of the supply chain haven't been modernized in decades. 124 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: The US government's infrastructure package passed in has promised seventeen 125 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: billion dollars reports. On top of that, ports and their 126 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: tenants plan to invest almost thirty three billion dollars per 127 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 1: year by Some of those plans, however, involve upgrades like automation, 128 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: which are currently a topic of fierce debate and contract 129 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: talks between union dockworkers on the West Coast and their employers, 130 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: but these investments take time. In the emirror, can supply 131 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: chain is begging for solutions. Now here's loom is again. 132 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:10,559 Speaker 1: The real solution is that in several places around the world, 133 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: most reportedly in the United States, we need serious infrastructure 134 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 1: UM advancement, and it proves that and those things just 135 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: don't come over late. For Bloomberg News, I'm a guest 136 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: to Sarava. I'm genuinely delighted now to be talking to 137 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: Christopher Mims, who I should say is a slightly unusual 138 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: interviewee for Stephanomics, because not only does he right for 139 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: a competing media organization, he's technology columnists for the Wall 140 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: Street Journal. But he's here because I just came across 141 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: his book and really liked it. The book is arriving today, 142 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: and I've found it without the help of any publisher 143 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: or agent. In fact, my sister Laura Flanders told me 144 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 1: about it, and I thought it was just such an 145 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 1: interesting piece of reporting about every part of the global 146 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: supply chains that we talked about often on this podcast. 147 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: I've been waiting for an excuse to have the author 148 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: on the show, So Christopher, no journalistic impartiality here. I 149 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: am a fan of your book. Um. The full title 150 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: is arriving today. Why everything about what we buy and 151 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 1: how we buy it has changed? And I was struck 152 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: listening to that piece from Augusta surreva Um, the freight 153 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 1: company person at the end, says talks about how a 154 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: hiccup in global supply chains now can quite easily become 155 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: a tsunami, and that struck me certainly for me in 156 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 1: your book, that's one of the things that has changed, right, 157 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: Supply chains are more complicated, more global, and also a 158 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: lot more fragile. Yes, they are a lot more fragile. 159 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a pretty simple principle to understand. 160 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: I think the longer you make a supply chain, um, 161 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: the more points of failure there are. And the thing 162 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 1: is that a supply chain is a physical thing, it's 163 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: a geographic thing. And you know, we live on a 164 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: planet now where whether it's a pandemic or political strife 165 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 1: or increasingly extreme weather and climate change, um, individual events 166 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,959 Speaker 1: anywhere along that supply chain can interrupt the whole thing. 167 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: And on top of that, you know, supply chains have 168 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: been made more efficient year by year, uh, you know, 169 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 1: in the name of not carrying excess inventory. And when 170 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: you live in a world where everyone has adopted this 171 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: this Fortist or Toyota production system idea that everything should 172 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 1: be just in time manufacturing and supplies, and you twin 173 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: that with really long supply chains, then you end up 174 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: with tremendous vulnerability, and frankly, I think we've seen new 175 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,959 Speaker 1: kinds of waste. So in a funny way, all of 176 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: these retailers that we've seen, especially in the US, with 177 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,559 Speaker 1: all this excess inventory, um, you know, they ended up 178 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: with it despite doing their darnists to try to avoid 179 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: that by creating these these long, just in time supply chains. 180 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: And as we heard in the piece, and we'll get 181 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: into I think later, there are still some serious issues, 182 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: particularly on the sort of ground based bit of the 183 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: supply chain. Right now, it's kind of moved a bit 184 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: from from long lines of container ships to to what's 185 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 1: happening on the ground. But we should we should back 186 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: up a little bit, and if you could just tell 187 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: us briefly what you set out to do with your book, 188 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: because you've taken on a pretty big terrain. So I 189 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: wanted to trace the path of just sort of a 190 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 1: typical consumer good from Asia. You know, in the past 191 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,439 Speaker 1: people have been creative and done things like T shirts, 192 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: but I just did a USB charger because it's this 193 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: ubiquitous electronic object. It's sort of the first run on 194 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: the ladder when a country starts to get a little 195 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,719 Speaker 1: more sophisticated in their manufacturing because there is a fair 196 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: amount of electronics and microchips in it. And so I 197 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: traced the path of one of these from Vietnam, which 198 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: of course is becoming this new manufacturing powerhouse, and just 199 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: trace its journey across the ocean and then across the 200 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 1: continental US, and in the process, you know, it gave 201 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: me an excuse to talk about how shipping works and 202 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: has changed, how ports have changed tremendously, how trucking and 203 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 1: rail has changed, and then how sort of the Amazon 204 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: portion of the supply chain has changed hugely, Right, so 205 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: all of what we used to do where we would 206 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 1: get you know, by goods from a store, now of 207 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: course through e commerce. How does that distribution network function 208 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: and how is it dependent on you know, not just 209 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: armies of millions of people, but lots of robotics, artificial intelligence, 210 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: prediction algorithms. How has that made that arriving today, uh 211 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: noteification possible? Why is it that I can go online 212 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: and pretty much anything I want there is a seemingly 213 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 1: infinite variety of it available to me within what was 214 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: two days now it's one day, now it's four hours, 215 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: even though that object began its journey maybe six months ago, 216 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: twelve thousand miles away on the opposite side of the globe. 217 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: And I guess we should say the timing was pretty 218 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 1: relevant here. So you you were, you were how far 219 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: through the book when COVID struck because that obviously that 220 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 1: must have made reporting a lot more difficult, but obviously 221 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: everything about what you were writing about a lot more 222 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: interesting to more people. Yeah. I was probably about two 223 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: thirds of the way through the reporting, um. And you know, 224 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: I hadn't written a word when I was standing, you know, 225 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: on the dock in Vietnam and getting texts from friends like, hey, 226 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: have you heard about what's going on, uh, you know 227 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: in China right now with this virus that's spreading. And 228 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: I was like, I don't know what you're talking about, 229 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: you know. And at the time, I was literally on 230 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: and around the world journey. Um. And so a lot 231 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: of the goods that I saw on the dock that day, 232 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: you know, containers full of things like, um, items that 233 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: people would buy to make working from home and educating 234 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: their kids from how possible, uh, you know ppe you know, 235 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: masks and gowns and stuff was in these containers that 236 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 1: I was watching get loaded that would then arrive you know, um, 237 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: two to six weeks later at the Port of l 238 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: a and be part of that initial just buying spree 239 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: that happened at right after lockdown. There's been a lot 240 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: of books that explained, you know, how important that container 241 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: ships are and the creation of the container and how 242 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: it built the modern world. And I've read quite all 243 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: of those books. But you're the first person who actually 244 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: took the trouble to find out how on earth you 245 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: pilot one of those enormous container ships into the Port 246 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which is obviously where 247 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: of goods from Asia come into the US. So just 248 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: tell us a little bit bit about because it turns 249 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: out it's a much tougher parking job. But I think 250 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 1: any of them would have imagined. Yeah, I mean, I 251 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: think one of the great untold stories of the of 252 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: this century and the last half of the previous century 253 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: is the way that so many jobs that used to 254 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: be sort of mundane blue collar jobs have become really 255 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: skilled labor. And a great example of that is the 256 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: harbor pilot. I mean, they've been harbor pilots since ancient Greece, 257 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 1: because when your ship arrived to a port, you don't 258 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: know where the shoals are, you don't know how to navigate. 259 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: It's very tricky. So a native pilot would come out 260 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 1: on a boat and this still happens to this day, 261 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: um and hops on the boat and they're the only 262 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: person who is allowed to pilot that ship into the port. Nowadays, 263 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: it's extra important with these truly enormous container ships because 264 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: the tolerances are so narrow. The way I described it 265 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: in the book is like imagine you have like a 266 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: wooden block and you're just kind of like pushing it 267 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: down a rain gutter, and there's maybe a centimeter on 268 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: the bottom and on each side, and that's how wide 269 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 1: the ship is relative to these ship channels. And then 270 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: you know, even the tolerance on the top is very 271 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: tight because a lot of these ships as they go 272 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 1: under you know, let's say a bridge when they're going 273 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: into the port, you know there's there's maybe only two 274 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 1: ms tolerance, and if it's a hot day and the 275 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 1: bridge is sagging, maybe it's just a meter. So these 276 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: harbor pilots um, you know, if they mess up millions 277 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: and millions of dollars worth of equipment is smashed and 278 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: and it's a huge problem. So their job is really tough, 279 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,239 Speaker 1: and they're compensated accordingly. They're the highest paid, uh you know, 280 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: civil servants in in the on the payroll of the 281 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: city of Los Angeles and make more than four hundred 282 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 1: thousand dollars a year because they are so rare. But 283 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: they also, it sets out, have quite a high risk 284 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: of dying on the job. They're still having to basically 285 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: jump onto one of those ladders, kind of hanging off 286 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 1: the side of Jacob's ladder. I mean that to me 287 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: was just extraordinary, and they quite regularly fall off and die, right, Yeah, 288 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: So they have harbor Pellet as a one in twenty 289 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: chance of dying on the job during their career. Because 290 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: to this day, transferring somebody from a small boat to 291 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: a large ship is very difficult. They kind of hop 292 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 1: onto this rope ladder and climb up the side. You know, 293 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 1: you would think that they would invent some kind of 294 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: I don't know, escalator or something, but it's just nobody's 295 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: figured out any better way to get a person onto 296 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: a giant ship at sea. You also made a point 297 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: of mentioning the sailors around the world who are marooned 298 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,400 Speaker 1: on all these container ships during COVID, and I think 299 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: you sort of had a line about, you know, never 300 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: has so much be known to so few. Yeah, I 301 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:40,719 Speaker 1: mean at the peak, there were hundreds of thousands of 302 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: sailors varied a lot for months and months who could 303 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: not get off of their ships because it was a 304 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: collective action problem, right, Like if a ship comes into 305 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: a port, you know, those sailors could belong to a 306 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:58,920 Speaker 1: half different nationalities, none of which are the same as 307 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: the country in which they've just alighted. And during you know, 308 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: the early COVID times, even these countries didn't want to 309 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: let sailors off of these ships. Nor could these sailors 310 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: necessarily hop on a plane during the early part of 311 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: the lockdown to fly home. And so you ended up 312 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: with sailors who, you know, they would sign up for 313 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: a six month contract and they would be kept a 314 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: year or eighteen months. And you know, it wasn't quite 315 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: that they were enslaved on these ships, but it was 316 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: in a way, you know, it's close, right, It is 317 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: a form of servitude where they absolutely could not get 318 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: out of the situation. They could not get home, and 319 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 1: the sailors who whose entire income is depending on getting 320 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: onto those ships and relieving the ones who are on there, 321 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: couldn't get on and make a living. So it ended 322 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: up being this this really kind of collective disaster that's 323 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,719 Speaker 1: a product of the way that you know, the seas 324 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: are still um. You know, you get out beyond beyond 325 00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: the range of of countries Navy, it's still lawless zone 326 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: in a way, and it's a place where countries have 327 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: to collaborate, and you know, these these blue color largely 328 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: sailors were the victim of that during the pandemic, and 329 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: it was it was this tiny fraction of the global 330 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: workforce who are still managing. We're responsible for the for 331 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 1: the supplies that did get through during that time when 332 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,959 Speaker 1: we were all locked up at home. Okay, so we 333 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: have we do currently have doc and railroad worker unions 334 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 1: negotiating contracts with their employers and on the railroad workers, 335 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 1: given that we already have all these delays of goods 336 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 1: waiting to get onto trains. The White House is so 337 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 1: worried about the paralyzing effect of a strike that they've 338 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: just created a Presidential Emergency Board to come up with 339 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: a plan to that will be acceptable to railroad management 340 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: and the union workers. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union, 341 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 1: which you write about in the book, are also in 342 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: talks at these Some of these workers are subject to 343 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:01,239 Speaker 1: this paradox of automation that you described, So just tell 344 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 1: us a little bit about that. Yeah, port workers, especially 345 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: these days, um, are subject to, uh, this paradox where 346 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: if you want to make these ports cleaner, greener, more productive, um, 347 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 1: you know, you've got to automate them. Um. But of 348 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: course the Longshoreman's union doesn't want that. So what they 349 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: have negotiated for in the past is okay, you can 350 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: automate you know, this terminal, because ports are can sometimes 351 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 1: be made up of dozens of terminals. But in exchange, 352 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: you will retrain this many workers to maintain the robots 353 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: that are literally going to replace the people who before 354 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: we're driving the cranes, driving the yard trucks that move 355 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: containers around, etcetera. Um. So this has been the story 356 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: in shipping and imports frankly since the debut of the 357 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: shipping container. The shipping container wiped out more jobs in 358 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 1: ports than any subsequent innovation. But this latest iteration will 359 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: certainly shrink the ranks of UM long shoreman even further. 360 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,359 Speaker 1: And you know, to be clear, you know, if you 361 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: go to the port of Rotterdam, which was really the 362 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: first giant port in the world to automate back in 363 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 1: the late n or you go especially in China, there's 364 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: tremendous automation there already the technology is available, but it 365 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: is this real struggle now that you don't frankly often 366 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: see where it is a direct trade off between automation 367 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: and jobs. Usually automation displaces workers into new roles, but 368 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 1: here it's like, you know, those jobs are going to 369 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: go away. A lot of other bits of your book, 370 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 1: which about the rise of sort of mass manufacturing and 371 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: scientific management techniques, I mean, we can't go into all 372 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,959 Speaker 1: of it, but the trucking I think we do need 373 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: to make time for because shortages of truckers has been 374 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: such a feature of the recovery post COVID, not just 375 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 1: in the US, but also across Europe and in the 376 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: UK um in the past couple of years. So why 377 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: is it that we find truckers probably as important, maybe 378 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 1: more important to getting goods to us than forty years ago, 379 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: but somehow not enough of them. Yeah, trucking is an 380 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 1: area where technology has made truckers more productive. Um. Certainly, 381 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 1: deregulation in the United States also went a long way 382 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: toward making truckers more economically productive, but it made the 383 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: job more punishing, more difficult, longer hours, frankly, much lower pay. 384 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: It's no surprise that you have so much turnover in 385 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 1: trucking because you especially in the US, you have lots 386 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: and lots of people who are certified to drive long 387 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: haul trucks who go and get that commercial driver's license, 388 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: but they burn out quickly. And a big part of 389 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 1: it is, you know, if you're on the road, let's 390 00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: say your long haul trucker for twenty days out of 391 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: every month, you're working fourteen hours a day. Uh, you 392 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: know minimum because that's the federal limit, and you're essentially 393 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: making the equivalent minimum wage. Well, forget that. You could 394 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: just stay home and have two jobs in fast food 395 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 1: and at least sleep at home at night. So it's 396 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 1: become a very unappealing and a very difficult and a 397 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: very lonely job. And so the average age of truckers 398 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: just keeps going up. Um. And you know, there's I 399 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: think a lot of political paralysis around addressing what the 400 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 1: real quality of life issues are there. You point out 401 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: in your pieces that they're earning two thirds less in 402 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 1: real terms than they were forty years ago, these truck workers, 403 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: despite being just as important to the supply chain, if 404 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: not more so. So, I guess the obvious question is 405 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: why aren't they just paid more by these companies who 406 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: rely on them so intensely. I mean, it's complicated. Part 407 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: of it is that you know, they they're not able 408 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: to really unis effectively anymore, whereas before they were all 409 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: part of the team Stars union. UM. But I think 410 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: a trend you see overall in a lot of these 411 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 1: jobs you're at the supply chain is that UM, more 412 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: and more efficiency and cost is wrung out of the 413 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 1: supply chain, but at the price of robustness and reliability. 414 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 1: And when workers are part of the the system that 415 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: is paying the price for all of that increased efficiency 416 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: and lower cost. Because truck transportation is significantly cheaper now 417 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: than it was before deregulation, then you end up with 418 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: a more fragile system. So in some ways it is 419 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: it is a choice that has been collectively made UM, 420 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:48,679 Speaker 1: both politically and economically having devoted all this time to 421 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 1: the way the global supply chains were and then seeing 422 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 1: how they were tested in by COVID, seeing how the 423 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 1: recovery has affected been affected by supply chain issues. There's 424 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: a huge debate about whether or not this system of 425 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 1: globalization is going to be unpicked, you know, whether we're 426 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: going to sort of try and unscramble the omelet and 427 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: have more regional or even local production, and that a 428 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 1: lot of these very elaborate systems that you catalog and 429 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 1: describe are just going to go away because they haven't 430 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,680 Speaker 1: been a good fit for the last couple of years. 431 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 1: What do you think about that? I mean, how much 432 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 1: will the pandemic change all those things that you've looked at? 433 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,879 Speaker 1: The experts I have talked to you who've been studying 434 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: this for decades have told me that the pandemic was 435 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: in some ways address rehearsal for other challenges to come, 436 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 1: and that this entire system, which has become so efficient 437 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 1: and so affordable, you know, grew up during a period 438 00:26:54,600 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: of unusual peace, prosperity, lack of international ConfL But now 439 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: that you have you know, war in Europe, you have 440 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: extreme weather events, you have political unrest as a result 441 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 1: of rising prices and food shortages. All of these things 442 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 1: directly affect you know, name a commodity right or name 443 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 1: a finished good, and so what you have people talking 444 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: about is near shoring, ally shoring, you know, even before 445 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: you get to so called re shoring. So I think 446 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,679 Speaker 1: that it is just a natural consequence of all of 447 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 1: these interruptions that manufacturers that you know, all the people 448 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 1: who are in the back, and and our kind of 449 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 1: villains on euros of this who have to manage these 450 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 1: supply chains are like, I need to find a new 451 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: place to get these goods, or I need to bring 452 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 1: some of this uh in house, or I need to 453 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:52,479 Speaker 1: pay my suppliers and subcontractors war to guarantee that they 454 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: will have enough extra capacity for me. You see this 455 00:27:55,040 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: in the automotive industry, paying chip companies more to guarantee capacity. Um. 456 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: So I do think that what you are going to 457 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 1: end up with are shorter supply chains and some amount 458 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: of what's called near shoring. And you know, frankly, it's 459 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,440 Speaker 1: probably about time because there are many ways that this 460 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: was in some senses environmentally unsustainable long before it was 461 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: economically unsustainable. Do you think Amazon is going to stop 462 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,239 Speaker 1: doing things differently because all of that could change and 463 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 1: you'd still it would still be pretty hard working in 464 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:34,880 Speaker 1: an Amazon warehouse. True, Amazon has changed a great deal. 465 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,479 Speaker 1: That's one reason they've had to continue increasing their wages, 466 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: and it's one reason that they're facing this pressure from unions, 467 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: although it is still extraordinarily hard to unionize a warehouse 468 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 1: in the United States, so that's on their side. I 469 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: think that the way in which Amazon will change is 470 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 1: Amazon the bulk of the goods that they sell is 471 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,479 Speaker 1: through a marketplace, so they're agnostic about the source of 472 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: those goods. So Amazon quote unquote could do a massive 473 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: pivot to nearer suppliers and not even know it because 474 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: it's just where those manufacturers are sourcing from. That's interesting 475 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 1: in this unprecedented advert for Wall Street Journal columnists. We 476 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 1: recognize quality wherever it is. But you did mention that 477 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: you've just finished a documentary, So so tell us how 478 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 1: we could see because that sort of is providing some 479 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 1: of this kind of update post COVID update to your analysis. Yeah, 480 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: and and a lot of visuals that make it real 481 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 1: because the scale of it is hard to understand unless 482 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: you can see it. But um, yeah, if you just 483 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: like search YouTube for it's actually called chain Reactions and 484 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: just search it for like chain reaction, w s J 485 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 1: or something, Um, it'll pop up. It's also on w 486 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 1: s J dot com. It's free there. But yeah, that 487 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 1: documentary really lays out a lot of this and you 488 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: can hear it straight from the truckers, the longshoreman, longshore people, 489 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 1: but she prefers the term longshoreman. You know, the ups drivers, 490 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,719 Speaker 1: the Amazon workers, um. And I think it's really powerful, frankly, 491 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 1: to hear it directly from the people responsible for making 492 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: the system work, as I did, because certainly that's not 493 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: an encounter that we have every day generally unless we 494 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 1: work in this industry. Christopher Mims, thanks so much. Yeah, 495 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 1: thank you very much for having me. That's it for 496 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 1: this episode of Stephanomics. Will be back next week for 497 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 1: the season finale. In the meantime, do please rate the 498 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 1: show if you like it, and check out the Bloomberg 499 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: News website for more economic news and views on the 500 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: global economy. You can also follow at economics on Twitter. 501 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Summer Sadi and Young Young, 502 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 1: with special thanks also to Augustus Seraiva, Anna Montero, Brendan Murray, 503 00:30:45,000 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 1: and Christopher Mims. Mike Sasso is the executive producer of Stephanomics, 504 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: The s