WEBVTT - Reflections on Ukraine After a Year of War

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Karl Messer and

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. This hour really focusing on

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<v Speaker 1>that one year mark since that Russian invasion in war

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<v Speaker 1>with Ukraine, and we did hear from Ukrainian President of

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Zelinski saying on this one year mark of the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian invasion that his country will secure victory if allies

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<v Speaker 1>maintain their support, possibly this year. So we continue our

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<v Speaker 1>look back at the year and what may come. Return

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<v Speaker 1>Mannie to a trusted voice that we have leaned on

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<v Speaker 1>a lot over the past twelve months since that invasion.

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<v Speaker 1>Delighted to have back with us. Angela Stent. She is

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<v Speaker 1>Senior Adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East

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<v Speaker 1>European Studies. Also served as National Intelligence Officer for Russia

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<v Speaker 1>and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council and before that

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<v Speaker 1>served at the US Department of State. She's also written

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<v Speaker 1>a book Putin's World, Russia Against the West End with

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<v Speaker 1>the Rest. This is why we have leaned on her

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<v Speaker 1>so much. She's with us once again from Washington, DC. Angela,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. I'm sure many people have been

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<v Speaker 1>reaching out to you on this one year mark, and

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<v Speaker 1>so delighted that you could be with us again one

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<v Speaker 1>year in what occupies your mind, your thoughts when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to this war each day that it continues to

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<v Speaker 1>drag on. Well, thank you for having me back on

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<v Speaker 1>the program. I would say that at the moment, what

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<v Speaker 1>I'm focused on is this new Russian offensive which has

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<v Speaker 1>already begun, the so called Spring Offensive. It's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a very tough next six months. The Russians are

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<v Speaker 1>still trying to take more territory, the Ukrainians are pushing

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<v Speaker 1>them back. There's been very, very fierce fighting in a

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<v Speaker 1>town called Bahmut, which it's really like hand to hand combat,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've been large numbers of casualties. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>we just have to watch that, and we have to

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<v Speaker 1>see whether the Russians are more successful this time in

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<v Speaker 1>this offensive than they've been in the past, and whether

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<v Speaker 1>the U, the Ukrainian Army, with the equipment also from

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<v Speaker 1>the NATO countries, can successfully push this Russian offensive back. Hey, Angela,

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder if you can talk about the China situation,

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<v Speaker 1>because we're hearing mixed reports this week from them. CNN

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<v Speaker 1>just issued a report that US intelligence shows that the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese government is considering providing Russia with drones and ammunition.

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<v Speaker 1>What is your take on what Beijing is going to

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<v Speaker 1>do and their role in the war effort for Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>So last weekend I was at the Munich Security Conference.

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<v Speaker 1>There were no Russian officials there, but the Chinese Foreign

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<v Speaker 1>Minister was there, and he made it clear again that

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<v Speaker 1>from the Chinese point of view, the West is partly

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<v Speaker 1>responsible for this war. He said there was going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a Chinese peace plan, which in fact they have

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<v Speaker 1>issued today. But at the same conference, Secretary of State

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<v Speaker 1>Tony B. Lincoln gave an interview saying that the US

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<v Speaker 1>has information that China is considering supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>the US and other native countries. A woman Chinese that

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<v Speaker 1>they shouldn't do this. We've already had some evidence that

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<v Speaker 1>they're electronic components which it can be used in weapons

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<v Speaker 1>have been supplied to Russia. And so it's a little

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<v Speaker 1>incongruous if the Chinese, on the one hand, say here's

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<v Speaker 1>a peace planet, we can act as a mediator, and

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<v Speaker 1>then they're actually supplying weapons to the Russians. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think if our people say that they have the evidence

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<v Speaker 1>of this. We have to take this seriously. I do

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<v Speaker 1>wonder and I'm forgive me, I'm trying to think whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's a Bloomberg column that I read, but this whole

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<v Speaker 1>idea that you know, where the US has maybe failed

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe other countries in that we've spread capitalism, but

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<v Speaker 1>we didn't spread democracy. And I wonder our guests said

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<v Speaker 1>that earlier? This was it a guest? Was it? One

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<v Speaker 1>of our guests was that price brilliant? And so I

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<v Speaker 1>wonder how much you think about that that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with people saying, well, the uses are fault, is there

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<v Speaker 1>some truth to that in that, you know, whether it's China,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's other parts of the world spread of capitalism

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<v Speaker 1>but not democracy. Well, it's easier to spread capitalism than

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<v Speaker 1>it is democracy. I mean people, you know, people like capitalism,

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<v Speaker 1>they can make money from it. It's a good system.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's very hard to influence another country's political system,

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<v Speaker 1>and particularly a country like Russia or China. But let's

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<v Speaker 1>take Russia, which has a centuries old tradition of autocratic

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<v Speaker 1>rule and very little traditional other having had democratic rule.

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<v Speaker 1>The US certainly tried, and other democratic countries tried in

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen nineties when Boris Yelton was president to encourage

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<v Speaker 1>the spread of democracy there. But we have to understand

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<v Speaker 1>the limits of our own influence, particularly in a country

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<v Speaker 1>where the leadership and many of the people are not

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<v Speaker 1>used to living in a democracy, and particularly in Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>where they associate the attempts to spread democracy in the

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen nineties with a very difficult economic situation that they

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<v Speaker 1>lived in, including a crash in nineteen ninety eight where

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<v Speaker 1>most people lost their savings. So I think you can't

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<v Speaker 1>blame the United States for this. It's not within our

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<v Speaker 1>power to impose a form of political governance on another country.

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<v Speaker 1>Having said that, then do the allies, the Western Allies

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<v Speaker 1>have no other choice but to support Ukraine in this Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean at the moment, yes, if we don't want

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<v Speaker 1>Russia to take over Ukraine and then threaten other countries

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<v Speaker 1>because Putin's not going to stop there. I mean, he's

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<v Speaker 1>made it clear that Russia wants to call an unquote

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<v Speaker 1>take back traditional lands that belong to Russia. And they've

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<v Speaker 1>even mentioned Poland when they've talked about this. So this

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<v Speaker 1>really is the only choice for the West is to

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<v Speaker 1>support Ukraine, to give it the wherewithal to push back.

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<v Speaker 1>The Ukrainian army has done extremely well, much better than

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<v Speaker 1>anyone thought it wore, including Vladimir Putin in this last year,

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<v Speaker 1>because if we don't support, if we don't supply Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>it'll be very hard for them to resist what the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians are doing, and then you will just have a

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<v Speaker 1>more aggressive Russia in Europe, Angela, can you talk a

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<v Speaker 1>bit about Russia's strategy when it comes to those historic

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<v Speaker 1>holding areas that you were talking about, specifically related to

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<v Speaker 1>how they're targeting, you know, museums in Ukraine and cultural

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<v Speaker 1>historic centers, so they're really trying to erase any independent

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian history. In twenty twenty one, Putin published a five

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<v Speaker 1>thousand word essay where he claimed that there were no

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<v Speaker 1>such things as Ukrainians, that Ukrainians, you know, don't have

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<v Speaker 1>the right to a separate state, that Ukraine isn't a

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<v Speaker 1>different a separate nationality, that they're brothers and sisters with Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they have been trying to eliminate some of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Ukraine's culture. It's terrible at what they've done there,

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<v Speaker 1>to the museums, to the libraries, to these vestiges or

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<v Speaker 1>evidence of Ukrainian culture because of his claim that Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>belongs to Russia and that Ukraine isn't even a country.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what he said to a president George W. Bush

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<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and eight. He said to him, you

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<v Speaker 1>have to understand, George, that Ukraine isn't even a country.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of it used to be in the Austro Hungarian Empire,

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<v Speaker 1>and most of it, he said, was in the Russian Empire.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's what his view is. Hey, Angela, what do

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<v Speaker 1>you make of China's involvement at this point? In talking

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<v Speaker 1>about brokering a piece They officially put out a plan

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<v Speaker 1>or a paper, if you will, in terms of some

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<v Speaker 1>kind of piece accord um. How does that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>complicate the situation. Well, I've read the so called peace plan.

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<v Speaker 1>It's rather general, i would say, and it really repeats

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<v Speaker 1>talking points that they've they've had before. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>how much of an impact this will have because none

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<v Speaker 1>of you know, the NATO countries have already said that

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<v Speaker 1>they don't this isn't a serious peace plan. The US

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<v Speaker 1>has said that, other allies European Union is said back.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure that some of the countries in the global

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<v Speaker 1>South who haven't condemned Russian and han't sanctioned it, they

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<v Speaker 1>will say, oh, look at the Chinese. You know, they're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to put forward a peace plan and we shouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>negotiate seriously. But it's very hard to have a credible

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<v Speaker 1>peace plan if China is really supporting Russia, it's supporting

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<v Speaker 1>all the Russian narrative about the war. As I said that,

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<v Speaker 1>it's supporting to some extent Russia with components for weapons.

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<v Speaker 1>It's supplying technology to Russia which Russia can't get now

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<v Speaker 1>from the West because of the Western sanctions. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>not a neutral party in this war. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>think is the biggest misconception that we might have in

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<v Speaker 1>the US about what motivates Putin most well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>we have often thought about Putin either as a mass

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<v Speaker 1>to strategist or as an excellent tactician, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>this war has shown that probably neither of those are

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<v Speaker 1>true anymore. Certainly not the strategist, but even the tactician.

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<v Speaker 1>And he started this war obviously misinformed about what was

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<v Speaker 1>going on in Ukraine, and with lots of misconceptions about

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<v Speaker 1>the strength of the Russian army and the weakness of

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian army and the weakness of the West. He

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<v Speaker 1>thought that because of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, how that

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<v Speaker 1>it played out, that the Biden administration was weak and

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<v Speaker 1>it wouldn't respond. So I think we have to reassess,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, how savvy he is in understanding really the

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<v Speaker 1>outside world. And I think a lot of people believe

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<v Speaker 1>that the two years of Covid isolation, where he really

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<v Speaker 1>didn't see any foreign leaders and was just surrounded by

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<v Speaker 1>a small group of people who share his views and reinforce,

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<v Speaker 1>if you like, his paranoia about the West really affected

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<v Speaker 1>him in the run up to this war. A celebrity

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<v Speaker 1>right there, just surrounds himself with people who just say yes, yes, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>or something to some extent. Yeah, he is. And certainly

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<v Speaker 1>even his intelligence officials who were on the ground in

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine gave him force information about how the Ukrainians would respond.

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<v Speaker 1>That's so, that's so fascinating. When do you think about

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<v Speaker 1>his perspective on the US, would you say that Afghanistan

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<v Speaker 1>piece was the critical, maybe turning point for him. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was very important for him because I think

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<v Speaker 1>he looked he saw what happened and the disarray there,

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<v Speaker 1>and then of course he also realized that in the

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<v Speaker 1>previous administration, US European relations had really sunk to a

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<v Speaker 1>new low. So I think he probably thought that the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden administration wouldn't have to resolve and certainly he didn't

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<v Speaker 1>think that the Europeans would go along with the US

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<v Speaker 1>in presenting a united front in this war. It is

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<v Speaker 1>pretty remarkable Angelo, when we think about the global stage

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<v Speaker 1>and the big players that are out there, then you

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<v Speaker 1>know the countries that are out there, that how much

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin and Russia in particular has really dominated the

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<v Speaker 1>conversation for a long time. Having said that, how do

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<v Speaker 1>you strategize about kind of what's next here when it

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<v Speaker 1>involves Russia and Putin? So I think from you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if I listened carefully to the speech he gave on

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<v Speaker 1>Tuesday to his Federal Assembly, his State of the Union speech,

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<v Speaker 1>and the message to the Russian people was, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the West is out to get us. This war is

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<v Speaker 1>going to go on for as long as it takes.

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<v Speaker 1>We will not be defeated on the battlefield. And basically,

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<v Speaker 1>if you don't like it, it's too bad, because that's

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening. So I think, as far as we can see,

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<v Speaker 1>this war can go on for a long time. He

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<v Speaker 1>is determined to prevail. We don't quite know what he

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<v Speaker 1>didn't tell us in this speech is actually what Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>war aims are. How would they define victory? We don't

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<v Speaker 1>know that, and he hasn't been explicit about it. It's

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<v Speaker 1>possible that victory for him would be just quote unquote

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<v Speaker 1>the control of the four territories, and he now claims

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's annexed even though it doesn't fully control them, or

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<v Speaker 1>still his sights might be on taking all of Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and not deterred by the failure to do so until now.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think, I think we're in for a long war.

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<v Speaker 1>And we talked a little bit about how Putin was

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<v Speaker 1>able to re emerge after the previous economic crash in Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got news today on more sanctions. We're always getting

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<v Speaker 1>news about more sanctions. Is there a point that Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>economy gets to that Putin has trouble recovering from so

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<v Speaker 1>so far the sanctions really haven't had the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>impact on Russia that the US and its allies thought

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<v Speaker 1>they would. I mean Russia's economies actually forecast to grow

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<v Speaker 1>this year, not by very much, but by some They've

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<v Speaker 1>obviously been able. They're still reaping in the revenues from

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<v Speaker 1>oil and gas sales, even if there's a price cap

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<v Speaker 1>that they're still getting money from that, which is also

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<v Speaker 1>helping to fuel their war machine. And the average Russian

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<v Speaker 1>has not felt the pinch yet. So the sanctions may

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<v Speaker 1>bite more in twenty twenty three, particularly the export controls,

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<v Speaker 1>the lack of semiconductors of spare parts, that may have

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<v Speaker 1>more of an impact on on the economy, but it doesn't.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the Russia has a tradition of the being

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<v Speaker 1>able to withstand these sanctions, and so far it's done. So, hey, Angela,

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<v Speaker 1>I do wonder about you know, Putin, the individual who

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<v Speaker 1>invaded Ukraine one year ago. Is he the same individual

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<v Speaker 1>leader who back in twenty fourteen invaded and subsequently annexed

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<v Speaker 1>the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine? Is he the same guy?

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<v Speaker 1>Is he different? Emboldened? I don't know, how do you

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<v Speaker 1>see it? Yeah? So, I think before this war began,

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<v Speaker 1>most people thought of Putin as someone who wasn't a

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<v Speaker 1>huge risk taker. If you go back to two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and eight, when Russia invaded Georgia, instead of going all

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<v Speaker 1>the way to the capital Tbilisi and removing the president

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Saash really whom Putin hated, that they stopped. There were

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<v Speaker 1>two territories that they then declared were independent, and so

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 1>Georgia was partly occupied by Russian troops, but they stopped there.

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<v Speaker 1>And in twenty fourteen, yesterday Anna's Crimea. They didn't have

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<v Speaker 1>that much resistance then, and they did start the war

0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 1>in the don Bus, but then they stopped and that

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, there was a ceasefire and there was a

0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.120
<v Speaker 1>peace agreement that was never fully implemented. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>difference now is this was a huge risk, a full

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 1>scale invasion of Ukraine with really not enough troops to

0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 1>do it. So he appears to be more of a

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:27.800
<v Speaker 1>risk taken out right. You know, maybe it's because he's

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about what his legacy is. Well, you wrote your

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<v Speaker 1>book Russia against the West and with the Rest back

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty nineteen, just thirty seconds you called it Putin's World.

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<v Speaker 1>If you were writing a new book today, what would

0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.240
<v Speaker 1>be the title, perhaps, well, it would be Putin's World

0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 1>to shrunk because his you know, the relationship with the

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.040
<v Speaker 1>West is so bad, but the relationship with the Global

0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:53.240
<v Speaker 1>South and China, those relations remain pretty good. So Russia

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.840
<v Speaker 1>is not isolated, all right? Is that a title? That's

0:14:55.840 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 1>a long title, shrunk. I like that, Angela, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much. I mean it sincerely. You have really given

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<v Speaker 1>us a lot of time over the past year to

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<v Speaker 1>myself and some of our Bloomberg colleagues with some really

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:14.160
<v Speaker 1>great insight, and it's been really so important to our audience.

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<v Speaker 1>So thank you so much. Stay safe, be well, and

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<v Speaker 1>I hope you have a good weekend. Angela Stent, Senior

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<v Speaker 1>fellow at Brookings. As we said, her book Putin's World

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<v Speaker 1>rush against the West and with the rest joining us

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<v Speaker 1>via zoom from Washington, DC, So very thoughtful conversation. On

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<v Speaker 1>this Friday, you're listening and watching Bloomberg.