1 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: It's hard not to notice that your grocery bill is 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: higher month in and month out, and your utilities keep 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: inching up, or you're paying more interest on credit card debt, 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 1: You're in good company. The cost of living in the 5 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: United States has increased significantly since twenty twenty, and while 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 1: inflation is said to be easing, it doesn't mean the 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: cost of goods are going back down. It just means 8 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: they're increasing at a slower rate. Bloomberg's Read Picker and 9 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: Jenna Hawk crunch the numbers to see just how much 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: more Americans are shouldering in their everyday life expenses than 11 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 1: they were before the pandemic. 12 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: Compared to January twenty twenty, wages are up about twenty percent. 13 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: But I think what makes people quite upset is when 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 2: you adjust for inflation, that same measure shows that wages 15 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: over that same period of time, instead of being up 16 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: twenty percent, are up less than one percent. And so 17 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: you look around and yes, your wages may have kept 18 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 2: up in the aggregate, but some of these things that 19 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: you're paying more four have risen much faster than your wages. 20 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 3: So, say you spent one hundred dollars on goods and 21 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 3: services in around January of twenty twenty. Now, to get 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 3: all of those same goods and services, it would cost 23 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 3: around between one hundred and nineteen to one hundred and 24 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 3: twenty dollars, So we're talking about roughly a twenty percent increase. 25 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 3: And I think the really tricky thing here is that 26 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 3: it's not just small luxuries that we're talking about, Like truly, 27 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 3: no area of a household budget has been spared. 28 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 4: When it comes to this rise in the cost of living. 29 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:34,559 Speaker 1: Read and Jenna join me to walk through every corner 30 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,119 Speaker 1: of the household budget that have been affected and how 31 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: it shapes consumer feelings about their own economic futures. I'm 32 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: Scarlet Foo today on the big take, the cost of 33 00:01:50,000 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: living is more costly than ever. So you write that 34 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: after years of inflation, US consumers are now, using your words, 35 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: shouldering a burden unlike anything seen in decades. So I'd 36 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: like to start by you're giving us an overview of 37 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,679 Speaker 1: what's happening, because consumers are definitely feeling stressed, even as 38 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,839 Speaker 1: the official numbers show inflation is slowing down absolutely. 39 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 2: So typically when we write or talk about inflation, we're 40 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: talking about the annual rate or how much prices have 41 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: risen from a year ago, and while that rate has 42 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: fallen a lot since last year. When you talk to 43 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 2: actual people, not economists or policymakers, they tend to focus 44 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 2: on the price level, and the fact is that prices 45 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 2: are much higher now than they were before the pandemic. 46 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: So this story by Jenna and I, the purpose of 47 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 2: it was to really put numbers to show how much 48 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 2: those prices have increased over the last few years and 49 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 2: really get at this idea of the cumulative burden of inflation. 50 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 2: And in fact, prices have risen about as much in 51 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 2: the last few years as they had it in the 52 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 2: full decade preceding the pandemic. 53 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: You know, one thing I think about is before the pandemic, 54 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: there was this conventional wisdom that inflation was super low 55 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 1: and it wasn't going to spike again. We had fixed it. 56 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: It was vanquished. No one's saying that anymore, are they read. 57 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 2: Not that I know of. I think the team transitory 58 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 2: discussion that we saw arise at the start of this 59 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 2: has certainly had a moment where we now realize that 60 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 2: inflation is something that can always come back. It just 61 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 2: depends on the moment in time. 62 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: My question now is how much is COVID at fault 63 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: for these increased costs or were there already some shifts, 64 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: big shifts taking place across the economy that was pushing 65 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: up costs. In other words, inflation was inevitable after a 66 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: period of super low price increases, and this is just 67 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: what we're going to see as the cycle turns. 68 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 2: I'm not sure anything in the economy is inevitable, and 69 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 2: I think one key example of that is the recession 70 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: that's been telegraphed and talked about for over a year 71 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 2: and a half now that has yet to materialize. Doesn't 72 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 2: mean it won't, just hasn't shown up yet. But I 73 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 2: think the reasons for inflation, there's quite a few, but 74 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 2: to focus on some of the major ones. So the 75 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:24,279 Speaker 2: pandemic itself wreaked havoc on supply chains globally, making it 76 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 2: more difficult and more expensive to not only build but 77 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 2: also transport merchandise across the world and within the US. 78 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 2: Two At the same time, you had this shift from 79 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 2: spending on services, which is what the majority of Americans 80 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 2: spend their money on, to goods, in part because people 81 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 2: couldn't go out and spend on travel or dining out 82 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: in the same way. And so at the same time 83 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 2: that you saw this crunch on supply chains, you also 84 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 2: saw more demand. You also saw this unprecedented government support. 85 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 2: So when we think about out the way that the 86 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: US government responded to the economic disaster that was unfolding 87 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 2: from the pandemic, the government really stepped in both with 88 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 2: expanded unemployment benefits as well as direct checks to households. 89 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 2: In these stimulus checks that ended up leaving many families 90 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: with thousands of more dollars in their bank accounts to 91 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 2: help offset some of the extra burden that they were 92 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 2: facing in the depths of the pandemic and in the 93 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 2: early part of the recovery. But what that ended up 94 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 2: creating was this mixture of both this rebound in the 95 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 2: labor market that helped a lot of people go back 96 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: into employment quickly, but also this rebound that forced employers 97 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 2: to really offer big bumps in wages in order to 98 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 2: try to fill these positions quickly, and we hurt a lot, 99 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 2: especially at the beginning of this rebound, of employers struggling 100 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: to fill these positions and ways in which they were 101 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 2: trying to make their offers more competitive. Nation of all 102 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 2: of this left folks with a lot of excess money, 103 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 2: which we often talk about as excess savings, which is 104 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 2: essentially just how much Americans have saved compared to the 105 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 2: pre pandemic trend, and that really added to this consumption 106 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 2: trend as well. 107 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: So you bring up a good point, which is wages 108 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: have increased, and they've actually increased quite a bit since 109 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. That should blunt the impact of inflation. Nevertheless, 110 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: and I know you've written about this extensively, why do 111 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: people still feel worse off than they did before the 112 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: pandemic in terms of wages. 113 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 2: We have seen historic wage gains. It's truly been amazing 114 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 2: what we've seen, and you've seen some of the biggest 115 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 2: of these wage gains happening at the lower end of 116 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: the income scale. Compared to January twenty twenty, wages are 117 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,559 Speaker 2: up about twenty percent. But I think what makes people 118 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 2: quite upset is when you adjust for inflation, that same 119 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 2: measure shows that wages over that same period of time, 120 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 2: instead of being up twenty percent, are up less than 121 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 2: one percent. And so you look around and yes, your 122 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 2: wages may have kept up in the aggregate, but some 123 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 2: of these things that you're paying more for have risen 124 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: much faster than your wages. So on a nominal basis, 125 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 2: wages are up twenty percent, But what happens when your 126 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 2: grocery prices are up twenty five percent? You know you 127 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 2: feel that differently in your budget. And so it's this 128 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 2: idea that this inflation is really eroding a lot of 129 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: these historic gains that we've seen in recent years. 130 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: One thing that's clear is I think you really hit 131 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: it on the head when you said it's how people 132 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: feel and what we experience in our day to day life. 133 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: Our routines changed during the pandemic, that's clear. But for 134 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: most of us things have largely returned to the pre 135 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: pandemic normal as well, the cost of living has not. 136 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: And Jenna, you guys crunch some numbers. Just give me 137 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: some context here. Say you spent one hundred dollars on 138 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: goods or services before the pandemic, how much would those 139 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: same goods or services cost today? 140 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 3: So, say you spent one hundred dollars on goods and 141 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 3: services in around January of twenty twenty. Now to get 142 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 3: all of those same goods and services, it would cost 143 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 3: between one hundred and nineteen to one hundred twenty dollars, 144 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 3: so we're talking about roughly a twenty percent increase. And 145 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 3: I think the really tricky thing here is that it's 146 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: not just small luxuries that we're talking about, Like truly, 147 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 3: no area of a household budget has been spared when 148 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 3: it comes to this rise in the cost of living. 149 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 3: We're talking about basic necessities like rent, gas, electricity. It's 150 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 3: not just those extra amenities that people think about, right, and. 151 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 4: Food as well. 152 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: The most direct way people feel inflation is through their 153 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: grocery bills. What are the numbers when you look at 154 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: the grocery bills that surprised you the most. 155 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: So we're seeing that groceries are up around twenty five percent, 156 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 3: and that you can sort of break that down into 157 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: various items. Coffees up about two dollars a pound. We 158 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 3: saw the egg crisis earlier in the pandemic, where eggs 159 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 3: were almost like triple the price of their normal amount. 160 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 3: Ground beef used to cost like three dollars in eighty 161 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 3: nine cents in January of twenty twenty. 162 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 4: Now it's more than five dollars. 163 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 3: So we're talking again about these basic necessities, these basic 164 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 3: household items that you need to feed a family, and 165 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 3: they're up significantly higher, and just. 166 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 2: To jump in there. I think groceries in particular is 167 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 2: one that's interesting because while Americans have long been used 168 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 2: to mini prices going up a little bit each year, 169 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: say your rent bell, for instance, groceries are something that 170 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 2: we're historically quite stable before the pandemic. So yeah, there 171 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 2: might be some price spikes for specific items due to drought, disease, 172 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: or natural disaster, but in aggregate, in the four years 173 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 2: leading up to the pandemic, grocery prices rose less than 174 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 2: one percent, So that really provided this sense of predictability 175 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 2: that many households came to rely on that really has 176 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 2: been erased these last couple of years. 177 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: What's the forecast for next year in terms of grocery prices? 178 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: Are we going to continue to see this rate of change? 179 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 3: So the forecast that we're seeing for next year is 180 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 3: that grocery prices are going to be cut to less 181 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 3: than two percent growth. But again, I think it's this 182 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 3: issue that we're seeing that it's not always about year 183 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: over year change. People are still thinking about how much 184 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 3: growth in prices and levels of prices that they've seen 185 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: since the start of twenty twenty, and that's not really 186 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 3: going away anytime soon. When people talk about inflation slowing 187 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 3: down or cooling, it maybe gives the impression that, oh, 188 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 3: maybe things are going to return to normal. But your 189 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 3: January twenty twenty grocery bill is not coming back. And 190 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 3: that's something that Americans are really grappling with right. 191 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: Now after the break. How is inflation affecting people's chances 192 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 1: of owning a home? Let's talk about housing, because that, 193 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: by far is the largest expense for Americans in any 194 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: given month, whether you rent or whether you own. How 195 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 1: is inflation affecting renters versus homeowners. 196 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 3: We're seeing that rent is up about twenty to thirty percent, 197 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 3: depending on the source of data that you go with, 198 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 3: but rent is extremely high right now compared to pre 199 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 3: pandemic levels. And on the one hand, when it comes 200 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 3: to home ownership, home values have actually skyrocketed over that 201 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 3: same time period. We're seeing home values up around forty 202 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 3: two percent from the start of the pandemic. 203 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 4: Which is kind of crazy. 204 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 3: If you were lucky and you were part of that 205 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 3: group that was able to buy a house before the pandemic, 206 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 3: you saw this massive gain and wealth. But if you 207 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 3: weren't able to make that jump from renting to owning 208 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 3: a home. You sort of lost out without really knowing 209 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 3: that you were supposed to do this back in twenty twenty. 210 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: And these are paper gains for homeowners as well, because 211 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: there aren't that many transactions taking place in the housing 212 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: market right now, because no one wants to give up 213 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 1: their sub three percent mortgage at a time when mortgages 214 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: cost at least seven percent. 215 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, mortgages at the end of November are up around 216 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 3: to seven point five percent now, so it's sort of 217 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 3: never been more expensive than it is right now to 218 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 3: make plunged try to buy a home. So if again, 219 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 3: if you were one of those people that got lucky 220 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 3: and decided to buy a home before before you saw 221 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 3: all these interest rates hikes, you saw this massive. 222 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 4: Gain and wealth. 223 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 3: But if you didn't, it also sort of makes it 224 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 3: harder again for renters because the people that were going 225 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 3: to buy a house ended up staying renting, and that 226 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 3: just makes the rent landscape even more competitive. 227 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: Buying a house is one thing, or renting a house, 228 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 1: but then you've got the routine costs like utilities, specifically electricity. 229 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: Talk about what that increase looks. 230 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 3: Like so every part of home ownership and dealing with 231 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,959 Speaker 3: a home right now has gotten more expensive. Your rent 232 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 3: is more expensive, mortgage rates are higher, and even utility 233 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 3: bills like electricity and natural gas are up. We see 234 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 3: that electricity is up around twenty five percent compared to 235 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen or pre pandemic levels, and natural gas is 236 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 3: up twenty nine percent. 237 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: And one thing that you've noted is that the electricity 238 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 1: cost increase has been fairly uneven across the United States. 239 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: What states are seeing the biggest increases, What states are 240 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,359 Speaker 1: seeing fairly minimal increases. 241 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 3: Electricity bills are rising the fastest in areas like California 242 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 3: and Maine. In California, bills are up around fifty one 243 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 3: percent from the most recent data that we have from 244 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 3: the US Energy Information Administration. And you'll see sort of 245 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 3: normal price growth in areas like the Midwest, where they're 246 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 3: only seeing around like two to ten percent increase in 247 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 3: their bills, but main is also a really high one. 248 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 3: You've seen bills increase by forty two percent. Some of 249 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 3: that change or unevenness in the growth is sort of 250 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 3: due to where these power sources are being pulled from 251 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 3: California has historically always been one of the most expensive 252 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 3: states for utilities, and that has to do with various 253 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 3: cost structures and fixed costs that aren't associated with actually 254 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,679 Speaker 3: how much energy that you're pulling. And another thing is seasonality. 255 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 3: As we deal with climate change and summers get hotter, 256 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 3: you're running your AC units more in the winter. If 257 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 3: it's colder, you're going to keep the keet up. So 258 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 3: these external factors are also playing a real role in 259 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 3: these rising costs. 260 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, extreme weather in either direction just means more powers 261 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: consumed to make it a comfortable environment. Other essential bills, 262 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: like the premiums on car insurance and health insurance have 263 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: also gone up. Give us an overview on what's happening 264 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: here because it goes pretty deep. 265 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 4: So car insurance is up quite a bit. 266 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 3: We see it's up around thirty three percent, and that's 267 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 3: pretty out of line with historical baselines that we've seen. 268 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 3: From twenty sixteen to twenty nineteen, we only saw a 269 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 3: growth of about twenty percent, and part of this is 270 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 3: also due to the cost that it takes to now 271 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 3: replace parts of these cars. We have faced a real 272 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 3: supply chain issue in the last couple of years when 273 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 3: it comes to the shortage of chips or semiconductors. So 274 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 3: all of these have these downstream effects that are hitting 275 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 3: the consumer harder. 276 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: I also think that the labor shortage has a lot 277 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: to do with it, because it's hard to find technicians 278 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: in auto repair shops or in hospitals, and that increases 279 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: the costs for the hospitals or the body shops that 280 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: employ them, and of course then the end user, the consumer, 281 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: ends up paying for that too. 282 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 3: Definitely, there's certainly compounding effects that all again trickle down 283 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 3: to higher costs for the consumer. 284 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: You also write that borrowing costs have become a lot 285 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: more expensive. We know the Federal Reserve has raised interest 286 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: rates a number of times at the most aggressive pace 287 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 1: in a generation, but that is leading to higher rates 288 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: for things like card loans and. 289 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 4: Credit cards as well. 290 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: Talk about the cumulative effect of all these higher interest 291 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: rates and what it means for household budgets. 292 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, again, it's this cyclical nature, right. 293 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 3: Your everyday expenses have gone up a ton, your wages 294 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 3: haven't kept pace. 295 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 4: You don't know if you'll. 296 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 3: Always be able to pay off your credit card balance, 297 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 3: and if you don't make that payment on time, interest 298 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 3: rates and borrowing on that line of credit has never 299 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 3: been more expensive than it is now. It's this repeat 300 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 3: cycle of things getting harder and harder, and it's just 301 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 3: really affecting the consumer in a way that we've never 302 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 3: really seen before. 303 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, if you have to service debt, if you have 304 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: credit card debt, at one point the rates were high, 305 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 1: you knew you were paying for it, but at the 306 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: current rates, it's something that takes a bigger percentage of 307 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: your budget and it just becomes extremely painful to have 308 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: to service that debt at a time when your wages 309 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: aren't covering the higher expenses for everything else. 310 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 2: And I think you're starting to see how those higher 311 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 2: interest rates are impacting Americans so at the same time 312 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 2: that you know they're facing the higher costs of virtually everything, 313 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 2: and servicing those debts has gotten more expensive because of 314 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 2: higher interest rates, as well as the fact that there's 315 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 2: the resumption of student loan debt and some of these 316 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 2: other factors that are coming into play as well. You've 317 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 2: started to see delinquency rates really start to climb again. 318 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: And when thinking about what happened during the pandemic, delinquency 319 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 2: rates really went down a lot because people suddenly had 320 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: money to be able to pay down these debts, and 321 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 2: some folks had savings cushions for the first time in 322 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 2: their lives or at least in the kind of recent asked. 323 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 2: And you're starting to kind of see this return to trend. 324 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: And it's not quite clear whether the increase that we're 325 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 2: seeing is something that's more of a return to normal 326 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 2: or the start of something that's a lot more concerning 327 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 2: in terms of where things are heading, But there's certainly 328 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 2: some indications that there are reasons for concern. One thing 329 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 2: that really stuck out to me because my colleague Alex 330 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 2: Tanzy wrote a really smart story talking about how folks 331 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,640 Speaker 2: are increasingly tapping their retirement savings to cover their bills. 332 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 2: So last quarter we saw more workers take what's known 333 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 2: as a hardship withdrawal, and the top two reasons for 334 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 2: this uptick of people tapping these savings was to avoid 335 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 2: foreclosure or eviction and for medical expenses. So these things 336 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 2: are really starting to weigh on folks, and it will 337 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 2: be interesting to see kind of where we go from. 338 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: Here coming up. Could the state of our household budgets 339 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 1: play a role in determining the twenty twenty four election. 340 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 1: You mentioned how there was this cushion that government stimulus 341 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: and of course are not being able to go out 342 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: allow people to build. 343 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 4: Up during the pandemic. 344 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 1: What do American savings look like right now in late 345 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. 346 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 2: So the latest data that we have from the Federal 347 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 2: Reserve is up to the middle of twenty twenty three, 348 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 2: so that's kind of our latest snapshot and on a 349 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 2: nominal basis, so not adjusting for inflation, we saw that 350 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 2: aggregate savings are still up compared to where they were 351 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 2: in the first quarter of twenty twenty. But I think 352 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 2: something that's important to keep in mind, especially when we 353 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 2: talk about savings, is what happens when you inflation adjust them, 354 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 2: as well as who is holding these savings. So while 355 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: it was really stunning, an amazing and a true silver 356 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 2: lining to see that folks across the income ladder were 357 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 2: able to save more during the pandemic, roughly two thirds 358 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 2: of the total deposits as of mid twenty twenty three 359 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 2: are held by the top twenty percent of earners, so 360 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: you know, you're really starting to see that inequality come back. 361 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 2: But it's also worth noting that after adjusting the data 362 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 2: for inflation. That level of bank deposits and other liquid 363 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 2: assets were lower in June than they were in March 364 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 2: twenty twenty for the vast majority of households. So it's 365 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 2: important to keep that context as well in terms of 366 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 2: when we think about how far that money is going. 367 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 2: And it really goes back to that statistic that Jenna 368 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 2: said at the beginning of our conversation of one hundred 369 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 2: dollars in January twenty twenty is about the same as 370 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 2: a one hundred and nineteen or so today. 371 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: What is the San Francisco FED saying about the state 372 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: of the savings of US households. 373 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 2: So San Francisco FED has come out with some great 374 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 2: analysis over time about the state of what we call 375 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 2: excess savings, which is, you know, the extra savings relative 376 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 2: to the pre pandemic trend. And they had originally estimated 377 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 2: that those savings would be fully depleted this year, but 378 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,959 Speaker 2: with revised figures they show that it's not likely to 379 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 2: be the case until twenty twenty four. But something that 380 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: I think is important when we think about excess savings 381 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 2: and why, in my opinion, it's maybe not always the 382 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 2: best way to think about it is that it depends 383 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 2: a lot on what that pre pandemic trend was. So 384 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 2: we saw these big revisions by the Bureau of Economic 385 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 2: Analysis that led economists all across Wall Street to have 386 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 2: to revise their estimates on how much of these excess 387 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,360 Speaker 2: savings were left. And so the fact that the San 388 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 2: Francisco FED thinks that there's more access savings left now 389 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 2: than they did before is not because families saved more 390 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 2: than they previously thought during the pandemic. It's because they 391 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 2: saved less before COVID nineteen. 392 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 3: And regardless of when these excess savings eventually run out, 393 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: we're already seeing that the aggregate increase in savings for 394 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 3: all income groups peaked in the beginning of twenty twenty two, 395 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:00,719 Speaker 3: and we can already see in the data that that 396 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 3: padding for every single income group has been thinning over time. 397 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 1: So this creates an interesting situation in which you look 398 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 1: at the economy and it is growing overall, and there 399 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 1: do seem to be plenty of jobs available if you 400 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: look at the latest data, and the White House President 401 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: Biden in particular, of course, trying to push this idea 402 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 1: of Biden nomics and how the economy is doing well 403 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 1: when people don't feel like it's doing well. What role 404 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: will this persistent inflation that we've seen since early twenty 405 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: twenty play with the economy as a big, big wedge 406 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: issue for voters in twenty twenty four. 407 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 2: So there's a well known adage that was coined back 408 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 2: in the nineties that says, it's the economy stupid, And 409 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,919 Speaker 2: according to a poll by Bloomberg and Morning Console, it 410 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 2: very well maybe when it comes to the election. So 411 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 2: four and ten swing state voters said the economy was 412 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 2: their top issue in the twenty twenty four election. But 413 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 2: at this moment, how you feel about the economy very 414 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 2: much depends on whether you're focused on the jobs market, 415 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 2: which is characterized by historically low unemployment. We've seen some moderation, 416 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 2: some cooling, but still things look pretty good there, or inflation, which, 417 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,399 Speaker 2: as we know, has improved but has left prices so 418 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 2: much higher. I really liked this comment by Betsy Stephenson, 419 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 2: who is a professor at the University of Michigan and 420 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 2: a former chief economist at the US Department of Labor, 421 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 2: and she smartly put this in a recent piece that 422 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 2: she wrote about American's frustration with the economy, and instead 423 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 2: of it's the economy stupid, she wrote, it's the price 424 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: is stupid. And I think that was a really good 425 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 2: way of framing how folks are looking at the economy 426 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 2: right now and why they are so frustrated. 427 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 3: I think that being said, whether this issue with Bidenomics 428 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 3: is a substance stive issue or more of a marketing issue, 429 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 3: Swing State voters are definitely still torn on whether Bidenomics 430 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 3: is actually good or bad for the economy. The share 431 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 3: of respondents who said by days was bad for the economy, 432 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 3: and an October poll of Swing state voters with Bloomberg 433 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 3: News and Morning Consult, forty nine percent said Bidenomics was 434 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 3: bad for the economy, So voters definitely appear to be 435 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 3: quite split on the issue. 436 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,360 Speaker 1: When biden tries to talk about Bidenomics, is he pointing 437 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: to the slowdown in inflation as his success? Is that 438 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,160 Speaker 1: what he's saying, look at what we've done here. 439 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:27,160 Speaker 2: I think it's the combination of looking at a historic 440 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 2: recovery in the economy from an unprecedented recession, frankly, and 441 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 2: how many jobs have been added, how low unemployment has 442 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: been for a long time, how much wages have grown 443 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 2: after years of wage growth being rather tepid, as well 444 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 2: as the fact that inflation has come down a lot 445 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 2: since last year, and we've reached a point where instead 446 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,480 Speaker 2: of folks talking about a recession like its inevitability, folks 447 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 2: are rather split on whether we'll see a recession in 448 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four or not. So there is a lot 449 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,359 Speaker 2: to like about this economy. Me it's growing, and we 450 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 2: saw a really fast pace of growth in the third quarter, 451 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 2: But that doesn't change the fact that Americans hate inflation, 452 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 2: and folks have not experienced inflation to the caliber that 453 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 2: we've seen in decades. And there's kind of a saying 454 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 2: that's unemployment happens to your neighbor. Inflation happens to everyone, 455 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 2: And I think that is something that is very much 456 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 2: top of mind when we think about these issues on 457 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 2: a political level. 458 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: How are you thinking about the inflated cost of living 459 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 1: and whether it starts to ease or how it starts 460 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: to ease. What will you be watching for as all 461 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 1: the data trickles in each month. 462 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 2: So from where we are, as Jenna put earlier, when 463 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 2: we talk about inflation getting better, that doesn't mean that 464 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 2: prices are going down. It simply means that prices aren't 465 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 2: rising as fast as they were. So in order for 466 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 2: Americans to really feel like they are better off and 467 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 2: that they can look around and be happy with what 468 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,120 Speaker 2: they're looking at, you need to see consistent wage growth 469 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 2: that's higher than inflation, and so recently we've seen that 470 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 2: wage growth is outpacing inflation, which is a really good thing. 471 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 2: You need to see a lot of that, and it 472 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 2: needs to continue for a long time. So there's not 473 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 2: a simple fix. It's more of a fix over time, 474 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 2: and it's something that dependent on whether the economy can 475 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 2: continue to grow and we can continue to see that 476 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 2: labor market strength will really depend on how Americans feel well. 477 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Jenna Hawk on Bloomberg's data visualization 478 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,880 Speaker 1: team and Read Picker with Bloomberg's economy team. 479 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 4: Thanks for having us, Thanks so much. 480 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 2: For having me. 481 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take. 482 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more 483 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 1: shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, Bloomberg CarPlay, 484 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 485 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 486 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: dot Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is 487 00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: Vicky Bergalina. This episode was produced by Federika Romaniello, with 488 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,720 Speaker 1: production support from Sam Gabauer and Mo Barrow. Hilda Garcia 489 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: is our engineer. Original music by Leo Sidrin. I'm Scarlet Fou. 490 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take.