WEBVTT - NFL Week 14 Picks & Best Bets + Against the Spread Selections (Ep. 401) 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:03.440 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:06.160 your bets. This b Joey paid Joe Pi Zapia, and 0:00:06.200 --> 0:00:08.680 it's time to look at the Week fourteen lines and 0:00:08.720 --> 0:00:10.840 the sides and see which games that we think are 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:13.360 gonna go our way this week in the NFL. To 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:15.280 help me do it, of course, is my boy Scott Bogman, 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:17.599 the host of the College Football podcast right here on 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:21.280 Betting Pros, and Andrew Anderson. That's right, because it's all 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:23.680 about the undersun We're gonna talk about some of the 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:25.480 games that we like in Week fourteen before we get 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.120 to all that. 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Boy, oh boy, do I ever Head over 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:06.360 to bettingpros dot com slash promo. That's Bettingpros dot com 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.679 slash promo and treat yourself this holiday season and double 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:14.360 your subscription for free to start winning more bets today. So, Boggs, 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:17.640 as my buddy, as my pal, as my friend, can 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:19.520 you give us the first pick of the week that 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:20.880 you are high on in Week fourteen? 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:24.200 Yeah, give me Denver plus two and a half at 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:27.760 the Chargers. And this for me is really that I 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:31.160 hate the Chargers. I mean what they put together on 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.320 offense recently has been bad. Over the last three games, 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.680 they scored six ten twenty points. The Broncos defense is 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:38.920 not good, but they have been winning close games. They 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:40.600 beat the Packers by two, the Bills by two, the 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.080 Vikings by one, and even in a loss last week 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:45.919 against the Texans that came down to the last play 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:48.760 of the game. If singlely doesn't make that one of 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:51.720 the best picks I've ever seen. That's a score and 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:56.080 they win going away. Certain has only really gotten torched 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:59.600 by Tyreek Hill, but who hasn't so Keenan Allen should 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:00.160 be locked up. 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:00.680 I certain. 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:02.280 I mean, I don't know if anybody locks up Keenan 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:05.520 Allen either, but if he does have a bad game, 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.280 they don't have anything on offense because Eckler hasn't had 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.200 room to run. He's look slow. I think the Chargers 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.880 are one of the worst coach teams in the NFL. 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:18.000 I have the Broncos sneaking this one out outright, so 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.040 I just really hate what the Chargers are doing right now. 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:23.440 Me too, my friend. I already bet Denver plus one 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:26.359 thirty over on Caesars on betting Pros on the money line. 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:28.360 That's the best number you can get. And by the way, 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:31.480 I still keep talking about this, it's available still, and 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:34.240 it's better than it was even last week when I thought, hey, 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.600 you know, if they beat the Texans, all of a sudden, 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:38.400 this number really shrinks. Well, they didn't beat the Texans, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.560 they almost beat the Texans. But now it's plus three 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:42.720 fifty for the Denver Broncos to make the playoffs. You 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:44.400 get that at bet MGM. You can get it at 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:47.519 it's a plus three hundred over on DK so different 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:49.720 sites having at different spots here, but the best number 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:52.000 is at bet MGM right now. And they still play 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.480 the Chargers twice. They play the Raiders one more time 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:56.680 they play. I believe the Patriots are on their schedule too. 0:02:56.720 --> 0:03:00.919 They've they've got a really open path potentially to control 0:03:00.960 --> 0:03:03.000 their own destiny to get to double digit wins. So 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.480 we are feeling Denver this week. Andrew Erickson, are you 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:07.000 with us? 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.399 I do like Denver, but I do just prefer the 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:13.120 total in this game. And you know, no surprises here 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:18.079 under forty four points, not you, yes, me coming out 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:20.919 strong with the undertakes. I get that they're playing in 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.720 Los Angeles, a home field advantage that doesn't really exist. 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:25.799 It's a dome, but there really haven't been that many 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.600 shootouts in Los Angeles this year to between the Rams 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.240 and the Chargers. When you just look at the Broncos defense, 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:33.600 how they've improved since the start of the season. Six 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.280 of their last seven games have gone under the points total. 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.240 The Chargers, oh my god, Chargers, nine of last ten 0:03:39.280 --> 0:03:41.800 games have all gone under again. They scored six points 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.840 last week against the worst team in the NFL, worst 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:46.800 than the NFL has scored six points. I think the 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:50.800 Chargers are still getting credit for an offense that was 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:53.440 supposed to be good like heading into the year, but 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:56.240 that has hardly been the case. So the fact that 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:58.400 this number is not closer to like thirty nine to forty, 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:00.280 which I think is where it should be just on 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.200 what we've seen from these teams this year. 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:03.840 At forty four. 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:06.040 Points, I think that this is a really good value 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.040 to take. The under last ten games for these two 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:13.120 teams two and eight towards the under. I Russell Wilson's 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.480 run for two hundred and few yards and seven of 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.600 his last eight games, and they both have above above 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.719 average red zone defenses. So all signs to me are 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:25.560 pointing towards a blackluster game in the Chargers. 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:27.680 Blackluster game potentially. What do you make out of Brandon 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.640 Staley's comments about shaking up the backfield a little bit 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:33.080 like that's gonna make a difference somehow more Josh Kelly 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:36.680 Carries is gonna be the difference maker for the Chargers. 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:39.240 Yeah, I think it was a really interesting comment that 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:41.280 he brought up, but I almost feel like it's more 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:43.760 of a hey, Austin Ecker, like you have to play better, 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:45.920 Like it's really more of a shot at Eckler than 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.560 just Okay, we're gonna give the like you're really gonna 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:50.479 give the ball to Josh Kelly Isaiah Speller. 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.120 You're really good. You think that's gonna help. 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:55.200 Like Eckros obviously had not been playing great, but maybe 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:57.200 this is just like, hey, I have to play better. 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:59.520 And it is Denver who has been able to be 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.240 beaten in the run this year, So maybe this is 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.160 the last stand for Eckler to really help about his 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:05.040 fantasy managers. 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.159 If you guys, if you guys like the way that 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.560 Eckler's been running, wait till you see how slow. 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:11.000 Spiller is. 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:15.279 Bog in Week fourteen, what do you have for the people? 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.840 Give me the under forty on the Rams at Baltimore. 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:21.760 Both of these teams have played more unders five and seven, 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.479 both of them playing to the over. I think Baltimore 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.599 being gassed up off the buy really can make some 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:31.000 problems for the Rams offensive line, especially if Rob Havenstein 0:05:31.360 --> 0:05:35.880 has to miss this game because Joe Noteboom has been rough. 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:39.000 The Ravens are still adjusting to life without Mark Andrews. 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.560 They only put up twenty against the Chargers defense. That 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:46.320 was bad before the break. This one it really though, 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.200 even all that stuff I just said, it's really about 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:52.440 the nasty weather that is projected for this game. It's 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:55.719 supposed to be rainy and windy for most of this game. 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.520 I saw one meteorologists say that if this is just 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:00.280 a little bit, if the system moved, it was a 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.599 little bit faster than we think, we're gonna get big 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.680 gusts constantly up to thirty miles forty miles per hour. 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:10.479 So nasty weather in this game. For you know, the 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:13.839 rams work through the pass passing production goes down with wind. 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:17.440 The Ravens are going to be able to run, for sure, 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:19.960 but that bleeds the clock. So give me the under 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.680 forty with some ugly weather. Wind and rain is bad 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.800 for special teams as well. So I'm gonna I'm gonna 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.919 take the under in this Ravens game and hope that 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:29.919 the Ravens don't put all of it up by themselves. 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:32.440 Speaking of the running game for the Ravens, do you 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:34.440 think Keaton Mitchell has taken over that backfield or do 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.040 you think because of the weather both he and Edwards 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.560 will work substantially in this contest? Yeah? 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:40.760 I think both of them will work. 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:42.840 But I think you know, they went to Mitchell last 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:45.679 week or two weeks ago before the bye, and it worked. 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:49.159 He had more snaps by like eleven than any of 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:53.760 the other non fullbacks, and they have said they want 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:56.520 to get him the ball more. He's the explosive playmaker 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:58.159 on this team now that Zay Flowers is to catching 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.680 footballs for whatever reason, he is their explosive play and 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.840 Mark Andrews is gone, so they're missing a big piece 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.359 of that. So there's just a lot of adjusting to 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:13.560 be made for missing pieces. For the Rams, potentially with 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:15.800 Haven's sign, they got to get rid of that ball quicker. 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:18.920 For Matt Safford, he's going to get murdered. And for 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:21.680 the Ravens with no Mark Andrews, plus the weather, so 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:23.920 there's just a lot of obstacles for both these offenses 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:25.880 to overcome in my opinion, So I'm gonna take the 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:26.560 under in this game. 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:28.680 All right, back to you, Undertaker, Do you have something 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:30.360 different for us this time around? Erickson? 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:36.600 Yes, I have something fun is an over, guys, Because 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:40.400 the Colts there are over saviors this season eight and 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.680 four towards the over this year. One of the best 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:46.000 teams towards the over and a team in a season 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:47.800 where all we can get is unders, and we have 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:51.240 stadiums that are literally the anti anti Corus field of 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.600 the NFL. The Colts are saving us. So they pushed 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:57.600 the Titans last week, another one of these teams that 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.160 always goes under. They went over against the Titans. Like 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:02.000 if they can do that, they can get over against 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:04.920 any team. So I like this spot here against the 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:07.560 Cincinnati Bengals, even on the road. The Bengals defense is 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.600 absolutely horrible. Six worth of points per game, thirty three 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:12.880 yards allowed per game over the last three weeks, allowing 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:15.560 over four hundred yards of offense per game. What Shane 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.360 Steichen is doing with Garter Minshew and these Colts pieces, 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.560 I think is absolutely fascinating. This offense is cooking on 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:23.080 all levels. They didn't have all their guys, Like I 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:24.960 can't wait to see what's gonna be with Richardson and 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.080 Jonathan Taylor healthy next year. But for now, Garter Minshew, 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.320 Zach Moss, these guys are getting it done and I think 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.160 it's going to continue against Cincinnati Bengals. 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:34.760 So I like the over overall in this game. 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:38.600 When you look at the Colts specifically, or excuse me, 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:40.880 the Bengals for the last seven games hit the over. 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.760 Their last five of six games have all past forty 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:45.840 one and a half points. So that's what this line 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:47.760 opened year. Forty one and a half, went down a 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:49.120 little bit to forty and a half. Now it's back 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:50.320 up to forty three and a half. 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:51.360 It's just the. 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:52.840 Colts are a team you want to bet the overs on. 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:55.200 So and the Bengals showed me enough, maybe not to 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.880 back them as I think there's some I think they're 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.439 favorite now in some spots, enough to back me or 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.080 back them as a favorite with Jake Browning, but enough 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.760 to show, hey, this offense can score the points against 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:08.800 the defense like the Colts that you know has a 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:10.520 leaky secondary, So I like the over. 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:12.920 I hate when my secondary leaks. It's the worst box. 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:14.640 It's the worst. It happens when you get older. You know, 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:16.400 it's just the part of life. But I'll tell you 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:18.080 this too, this is one of my favorite bets of 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:19.640 the week too. I already put this on the over 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.160 on my best Bets video here in the channel on YouTube, 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.520 and if you haven't, go subscribe to the channel. Go 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:26.840 check that out. And of course drop your comments below 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:29.040 any of the video because we're giving away free premium 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:31.920 upgrades the Betting Pros when you comment and subscribe, We'll 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:33.880 just keep giving them away. Every single week we're giving 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.320 them away. And remember to ring that bell for notifications 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:38.079 to let goes ding so you know if you're the 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:41.079 big winner of this week's free giveaway of the Betting 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.839 Pros premium upgrade. And if you haven't already downloaded the 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:45.760 Betting Pros app too, because on iOS you get three 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:47.559 free days of premium when you download it, so you 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.120 can see exactly the tools that we see when we're 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.400 making our picks and going through everything. So check out 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:55.520 the top ten video. Go bet the Over with me 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:57.719 and Ericson because I can't. I can't pick a side 0:09:57.720 --> 0:09:59.760 of this game. Ericson, this is like a basically, it's 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:01.800 a pl plus one over at Caesars. It's a plus 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.280 one and a half at Cincinnati over our FanDuel so 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.880 Ibi Vegas is like, hey, go choose your adventure. But 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:08.360 for me, I think the adventure is the over. 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:10.839 How could anyone know what the hell to expect from 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:14.839 Jake Browning? He looks like a non NFL quarterback Tommy 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.440 DeVito style one week and then he looks like Tom 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.560 Brady on Monday Night Football. Who knows what to expect 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:21.040 from that guy? 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:21.400 Right now? 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.240 It made me look like an idiot last week, and 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:26.360 right now I hate everything University of Washington, So I hate. 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.400 Me man. I'm loving the Washington all right. Let's go 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:33.880 to see about Miami. How much you love them this week? Box? 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:34.920 Look. 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:37.000 First of all, it's thirteen and a half. It's the 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:39.160 biggest bread of the week. I understand people don't like 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.880 laying this many points. But against the spread, Miami's eight 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:44.760 and four while the Titans are five and seven. The 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.400 Titans are also two and four against spread since well 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.240 Levis took over. They beat Atlanta and Carolina straight up 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.880 in those games they covered. They're not gonna beat Miami 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.520 straight up in this one. They couldn't win a close 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.640 one against Indy at home last week, and they haven't 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:00.440 covered this total in two of the last three weeks. 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:02.440 They lost twenty to six was their loss of the 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.160 Bucks thirty four to fourteen against the Jaguars. They are 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:08.000 one in five against the spread on the road this season, 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:10.960 and the one win coming against the Saints. And wink one. 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.400 The Dolphins are clicking on all cylinders. They just put 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.280 up forty five points against Washington and over four hundred 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.000 yards The week before on Black Friday they put up 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.600 three hundred and ninety five and beat the Jets going away. 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:23.600 I think the Titans are one of those teams that's 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:25.679 on the same level as the Jets. They're just not 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.800 that good. Their roster is bad. They're well coached, but 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:32.559 the product on the field cannot stop this Miami team. 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:34.880 I don't know if this spread is big enough at 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.040 thirteen and a half. I think Miami wins this one 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.680 going away. I don't think it's close at all. Titans 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.520 about to get really smoked. Tyreek Hill might have five 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:43.160 hundred yards. 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:44.959 Woah. I like the sound of that. 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:45.480 Let's go. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.480 So I assume you like the over for the Tyreek 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:49.280 Hill props. I mean, look, I'm going. 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:50.880 To take all the overs for Tireek for the rest 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:51.199 of the year. 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:52.720 I put a big chunk of money on him for 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:54.720 Offensive Player of the Year and then it was a 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:56.000 I think I got it an eight and a half 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.480 to one at the time. So I am I'm loving 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:01.640 life right now. I love with this tour. Just they say, healthy, Tyree, 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:03.680 I'm looking out for you, brother. All right, let's go 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.120 to the next one here on the slate for week fourteen, Erickson, 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:06.520 what do you have? 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.160 Atlanta Falcons? Where are they playing at home? In Atlanta? 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:12.360 They're playing at home, So we're gonna do it again. 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.160 We're gonna go back despen Ritter at home. The line 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.600 has already moved from minus two and a half Atlanta 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.600 to now minus one because people don't believe he doesn't Ridter. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:23.319 They've seen him playquarterback, But have you seen him play 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.079 quarterback at home? Guys, Like, that's the thing, that's the 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:27.959 key selling point here. The Dirty Birds are four and 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.079 one at home with Dismon Ritter as their starting quarterback. 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.679 They already beat the Buccaneers this year on the road. 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:35.880 Doesn't Ritter turned the ball over three times in the 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.800 red zone and they still won the game. More importantly, 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:41.719 they rushed the ball effectively against a strong Tampa Bay 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.680 run defense. Second most rushing yards the Bucks have allowed 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.120 were against the Atlanta Falcons. You know didn't play in 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.160 that game, or I should say played on the final 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:52.360 play of the game was b Jhon Robinson. This was 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.160 the game that we were all over the receiving yardage 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.560 props and then he didn't play like the entire game 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.560 because of the Migraine. So they beat the Buccaneers. They 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.320 ran all over the Buccaneers on the road without their 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.800 best running back. They're at home. They have Bejon back. 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.200 They're starting to ramp up his volume as they head 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.840 into the They're trying to make a playoff run. They're 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.080 in the driver's seat to win the NSC South. So 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:15.719 I think that the Atlanta Falcons, I'm just going to 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.120 continue to backtis't ritter at home because this is where 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.000 he plays better. He's more comfortable playing at home. And 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.600 I think the Buccaneers are an overrated opponent. I don't 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:26.200 think they should be getting as much credit as you know, 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.679 close road dogs, and who knows if they'll even open 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:29.760 up maybe as the favorite. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:30.920 Maybe we see this line flip. 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:33.959 If it ain't broke, don't fix it, ericson. You've been 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.160 doing it all year, so he just keep doing it. 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.800 A little disappointing last week for Bej in terms of productivity, 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.640 but in terms of volume, still going in the right 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:43.319 direction consistently for the last three weeks. 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.120 Yeah, Box Ericson, why are you so mad when you're 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.520 explaining this, uh, Atlanta minus one? 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.520 You seem so angry. You're like, you gotta take minus. 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.160 I think it's Adam. I think. 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:59.079 I see because two and a half. 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.359 I'm like, oh, this is great, like a great value, 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.240 and that's none. The value's gone. It's like, oh, go. 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.000 On to the other directge Age, I saw it. I 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:09.280 knew it was in that. I recognize it. All right, 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:09.959 thank you, Ericson. 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.640 Going forward, we've all got feelings about this next game, 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:14.800 So Boggs, why don't you kick us off with this one? 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:16.400 I mean we've already talked about it a little bit. 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:18.600 How about the over in Detroit and Chicago? This one 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:22.080 to me and piece of p and I and Erickson 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.880 in our thread about the Lions last week have been 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:29.600 complaining about this Lion secondary and has been playing absolutely putrid. 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:31.480 That they let the Saints come back on them, and 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.040 they ended up putting up twenty eight points. Uh Jordan 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:35.960 Love carved them up to the tune of two sixty 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:37.960 eight and three touchdowns. So Chargers put up a season 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.280 high thirty eight on them. The last time these two 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:43.480 teams met and the last time last time these two 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.720 teams met Detroit and Chicago, the score was thirty one 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.200 to twenty six, with the Lions winning. In The Bears 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.600 defense might be rested, but that's not gonna make the players, 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:54.960 you know, very good just because the arrested. The Bears 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.480 are still dead last in pass rush grade bottom twelve 0:14:58.520 --> 0:14:59.480 and coverage and rundy. 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:01.640 I like the over. 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:06.560 Even with this game being outdoors for the indoor cat 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.480 as Joe likes to call him in Jared Goff, So, 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.080 I just think this game goes over because the Lions 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:17.240 secondary is playing terribly right now and the Bear secondary 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:22.160 is bad. So I just think even outdoors, even it's 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.520 just a little bit of weather, this game is going 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:26.000 to sailway past this over all. 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:28.480 Right, So Boggs is looking for the over. He's pretty 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:32.720 confident there ericson same game, What are you confident in? 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.040 I'm just confident the Bears. 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.000 You know, the Bears are one of these few teams 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:40.760 that can actually cover the spread against the Lions. The 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:42.280 Lions have been one of the teams that have been 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.160 super profitable, but over the last couple of weeks they've 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:49.080 you know, given given backers some sweats when it comes 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.480 to lines futures three and three against the spread overall, 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.320 and their last two covers have come by extremely slim margins, 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:56.480 Like we got lucky last week that the Lions came 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:58.600 out with the cover against the Saints because they only 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:05.080 are remote. They were rolling boxes messages to Chad Be 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:09.280 like the Lions are gonna blow this, yeah. And when 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:10.720 I looked at this line when it first open up, 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.200 I was like, really, the Lion's are only like four 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:14.960 and a half point favorites. They're playing the Bears, and 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.520 they're like, Oh, it's outside in Chicago. This is a 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:22.000 cold weather where Jared Goff's small hands are gonna get 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:23.880 tight and is you gonna not know what to do 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.600 with them? And he's gonna throw interceptions? Like for me, 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:29.560 if the Lions have been playing better up to this point, 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.680 I would give them the benefit of the doubt. But 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.640 the fact that I could not bring myself to bet 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.600 on the Lions on the road, even though they are 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.480 the better team, I just that's why I wanted to 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:42.840 bet on the Bears, because I think that their defense 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.760 actually played much better over the last couple of weeks. 0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:48.320 Last three home games, they've limited their opponents to under 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.200 two hundred and forty passing yards. Jared Goff didn't even 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:53.280 throw it for that many yards when he faced the 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.440 Bears in Detroit. You know he was held under tow 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.680 hundred fifty passing yards. So look, justin fields doesn't cover 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.840 the spread gainst many teams. He should have beaten the 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:04.720 lines outright the last time, I think gets job done. 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:05.400 This time at home. 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.160 I'll take it a step further. Give me the Chicago 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:12.240 Bears on the money line to win this game. Let's go, baby, 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.120 I'm in. I keep watching the Lions give up points 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:18.680 at an alarming rate last few weeks, and I mean. 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:22.520 I'll find someone that loves you. Like Joe Pisa hates 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:23.479 Jared Goff outdoor. 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:27.160 Look man again, if it ain't broke, if it ain't broke, 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.919