1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: This is the last with your host, JJ Zachera, JJ Zachers, 2 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: what's up everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in 3 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: chief over at number five dot com and this is 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 1: episode thirty of the Late Round podcast, one of the 5 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: many shows that are part of the Number fire podcast network. 6 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,639 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. I love reading the reviews that 7 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,159 Speaker 1: you guys leave on iTunes because it's my way to 8 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: see how people are feeling about this podcast, and admitutedly 9 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: I've been humbled by them. But there was one that 10 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: I read over the past week that I really wanted 11 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: to share because I think it's important. The review was 12 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: titled respect for JJ. In all caps, it said, whether 13 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: you agree or disagree with JJ, I disagree with him 14 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: a decent amount. You can be confident that JJ doesn't 15 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: just deal on hot takes and controversy, but his opinions 16 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: are always developed through research in facts. This is an 17 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: important characteristic in every walk of life. And just know 18 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: that you will leave this pod smarter than you were 19 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: in the previous twenty minute. First off, can you please 20 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: tell my wife that my opinions are always developed through 21 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: research and facts. That would be great In all seriousness, 22 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: though the first part of the review is really what 23 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: reassured me about what I'm doing with this podcast, because 24 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: this is exactly how I want listeners to react to 25 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 1: the things that I say on this show. I don't 26 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: want you guys to have to listen to another podcast 27 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: with hosts who can do no wrong and fail to 28 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: recognize the human elements to the game of fantasy football. 29 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: We're wrong, analysts are wrong all of the time. I'm 30 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: going to be wrong a lot this season, but it's 31 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 1: not about that. This show is not about that. It's 32 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: about peeling back the layers and exposing my processes and 33 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: just the way that I think about fantasy football to 34 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 1: hopefully get you guys to think about the game or 35 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: maybe think about players in a different way. And all 36 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: the while you get to hear air horns and awful 37 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: jokes from a millennial who was born in the eighties. 38 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: But seriously, I love that review so much. I love 39 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: that you guys can listen to this podcast disagree, but 40 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: respectfully disagree, because that's what it's all about. Regarding today's show, 41 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: I had a lot of men emails that I haven't 42 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: been able to get to, so today's sort of an inbox. 43 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: Clinton show. I can't thank you all enough for the 44 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: interactions because those of you submitting questions are really allowing 45 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: this mailbag show to even happen. So keep it up, 46 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: and if I don't get to you right away, know 47 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: that I'm really trying my best to get to everyone 48 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: who hits me up. With all that being said, let's 49 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: dig in this. First one's from Luis Hernandez. He says, 50 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 1: are we sleeping on the Seahawks running game? Specifically Eddie Lacy? 51 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 1: People seem to be down on it since it wasn't 52 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: very effective last year twenty third in the league, possibly 53 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: as a result of Marshawn Lynch being gone, but the 54 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 1: offensive line struggles were definitely talked about more than usual. 55 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: The O line was terrible when Marshawn was there, though too. 56 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: Could it have been Russell Wilson's leg injuries that held 57 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: back the Seahawks run game last year. Usually running quarterbacks 58 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: tend to open up the running game, and Wilson was 59 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: basically a non factor in the running game last season. 60 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: Would love your take on this. I talked about Eddie 61 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:56,239 Speaker 1: Lacy in episode twenty nine, which dissected predictability and fantasy football, 62 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: noting that he could be a touchdown dependent, high upside 63 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: player in fantasy this year. That's genuinely how I feel. 64 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: There's certainly ambiguity surrounding Lacy. He's on a new team, 65 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: his offensive line isn't that great, there's decent competition there, 66 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: but we also know he'll probably be the goal line 67 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: back in an offense that will score points. You're certainly 68 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: correct about the running game. Last year, though, Luis cj Prosis, 69 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: Alex Collins, Thomas Rawls, and Christen Michael all had sub 70 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: thirty nine percent success rates according to number fire Metrics, 71 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: which measures the percentage of positive expected points runs made 72 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 1: by a running back. That number thirty nine percent is 73 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: below average, meaning literally every running back in that backfield 74 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: last season was making positive plays at a below average rate. 75 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: That tells you it's probably not just the running back, 76 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: but the situation as a whole. If there's anything positive 77 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: to take away. The Seahawks running backs were twenty third 78 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: in PPR scoring last year altogether, so considering their dreadful 79 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: performance on the ground, they weren't horrendously awful. They averaged 80 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: roughly three points fewer per game than a league average 81 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: running back group. But yes, to answer your question, all 82 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: of this is a big concern. I think that's a 83 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: big reason the Seahawks went out and signed Eddie Lacy 84 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: this offseason. As for his season long outlook, he's not 85 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: really someone that I'd rely on week in and week 86 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: out unless I've got a very stable player in my 87 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,839 Speaker 1: RB one spot or someone who's going to give me 88 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: a nice floor. As I talked through on the last podcast, 89 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: according to my model, Lacey's projected for about two hundred 90 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: and fifteen carries while scoring seven touchdowns. But in PPR 91 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: formats because I think CJ prosites will play a big 92 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: role in the passing attack, he's still more of a 93 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 1: lower end RB two, And to be honest, I'm not 94 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 1: really a huge Thomas Rawls fan after a really, really 95 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 1: ineffective twenty sixteen, and I don't think the Seahawks are either. 96 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: He could easily be gone after this year, and I 97 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 1: think that if they liked him enough, they would have 98 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: given him more work when he was healthy last season, 99 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: and they probably wouldn't have gone out and snagged Eddie 100 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: Lacy on a one year deal because all they're doing 101 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: by doing that is bringing in competition for Thomas Rawls, 102 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: but I'll be a realist and say that there's there's 103 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: still the possibility that Rawls digs into Eddie Lacy's workload 104 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: more than what's projected or what I think, which would 105 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: ding Lacy even more so. Overall, Lacey's just a touchdown 106 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: upside pick, and with process there, I think I'd only 107 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: own him in best ball leagues this year, not season 108 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: long ones. He'll more than likely just be too unpredictable 109 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:23,679 Speaker 1: to use. This next one is from Tim Meyer via email. 110 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: He says JJ inherited a team in a long running 111 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: auction two hundred dollars keeper league. This will be my 112 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: first ever auction draft. Any general tips? Thanks Tim. First off, Tim, 113 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: auction drafts are awesome and I wish they were the 114 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: default fantasy football drafting method. Regarding some tips, I was 115 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: planning on doing an auction draft show and that still 116 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 1: might happen, but I'll run through a few things I 117 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: try to keep in mind while I auction. The first 118 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: is that I do try to nominate big name guys 119 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: I don't love because I want others to waste money. 120 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 1: So elite quarterbacks are generally who I nominate early and often, 121 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: because you know that I don't want those elite quarterbacks, 122 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: and I know that other people in my league will 123 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: value them more than I do. Let others spend money, 124 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: so you own the economy. I also generally go with 125 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: a stars and scrubs approach for reasons I've discussed before 126 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: on the podcast. There's a big drop off and expected 127 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 1: fantasy points after the first few rounds of real drafts. 128 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: So if you think of those players as the expensive 129 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: players in your auction draft, then you can really get 130 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: a few of them and spend the rest of your 131 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: money on the middle to late round talents. In other words, 132 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: get three or so studs and then pick your favorite 133 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: values because the difference between those values and typical fifth 134 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: or sixth round picks is not very big. That's the 135 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: beauty of auction drafts too. You're not forced to make 136 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 1: selections because a draft order tells you to. You're able 137 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: to get who you want. And lastly, and I kind 138 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: of alluded to this, remember that you can look at 139 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 1: a typical snake draft and sort of associate ADP from 140 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: there to how an auction will generally go down. For instance, 141 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 1: if Isaiah Croell is being drafted after Todd Gurley, and 142 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: regular drafts, then expect Croell to be cheaper than Girley 143 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: in your auction draft. Things won't always go down that way, 144 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: but generally speaking, don't think that snake draft tools are 145 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: irrelevant for auction drafts. This next one's an email from 146 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: Matt Cohen. He says, Hey, JJ, love the pod. I 147 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: traded away an easy keeper for a shot at the 148 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: title and got second, So I'll be drafting ninth out 149 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: of ten this season. We keep two in a ten 150 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: team fairly savvy half PPR league where we start a quarterback, 151 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end, flex defense, 152 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: and kicker. When discussing keepers, you always mentioned value and cost. 153 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,119 Speaker 1: Suppose there is no in between. Running Backs are often 154 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: kept and quarterbacks tend to go ladish. I can keep 155 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 1: Tom Brady in the ninth, Julio in the first time, 156 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: Montgomery in the sixteenth, are Golden Tate in the fifth? Humbly, Matt, 157 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: I think right away you can throw away Golden Tate 158 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: in this group. You'd be drafting him close to his ADP, 159 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: which just isn't worth it. You're not getting any equity 160 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: out of keeping Golden Tate, so really you're looking at 161 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: Julio in the first time, Montgomery in the sixteenth, or 162 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,559 Speaker 1: Tom Brady for a ninth round pick. I would assume 163 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: if you don't keep Julio with your first you won't 164 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: be able to get him. With that being said, without 165 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: knowing what else is out there, I think you can 166 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: throw him back in order to get a Julio type 167 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: player in the first maybe not to his level, but 168 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: we're not talking a ton of equity gained for keeping 169 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: Julio ninth overall when he'd go probably sixth overall in 170 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: a regular draft. Anyway. That leaves time On and Tom Brady, 171 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: and I think you know where I'm going with this. 172 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: It's time Montgomery. To me, Brady's going to have a 173 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: bananas year more than likely. But his ADP is roughly 174 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: a round before Montgomery's on Fantasy Football calculator dot com. 175 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: And that's with people drafting who naturally overrate the quarterback position. 176 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: As you noted, your league is going to go late 177 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 1: round quarterback pretty frequently, so he loses the allure even more. Meanwhile, 178 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: time On could be the top running back in a 179 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 1: high scoring offense and you're getting him for absolutely free. 180 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: That's the direction that i'd go in. This next one 181 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: is an email. It says, hey, JJ, I'm really enjoying 182 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: your nobs time efficient podcasts. On one of your previous episodes, 183 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: you broached the subject of waiting on quarterback in a 184 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 1: superflex league that also had double the amount of receivers 185 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: and running backs, which made sense. However, I'd like your 186 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: thoughts to name more traditional size superflex league one with 187 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 1: one quarterback, to running backs, two wide receivers, a tight 188 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: end a flex in a superflex most probably the goal 189 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,559 Speaker 1: would be to still grab two of your favorite lrqbs 190 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: as late as possible. But what kind of round or 191 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:18,319 Speaker 1: auction value would you expect to pay? Also, what value 192 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: would you put on the elite quarterbacks and how early 193 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: would you be tempted to take one? Thanks for all 194 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: your hard work, Nick, I get this question all the time, 195 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: both in single and multi quarterback leagues. People ask what 196 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: round would you get Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or 197 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: what round would you be drafting a quarterback. The answer 198 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: to that question is that it depends drafts in where 199 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: quarterbacks go can vary greatly. If everything went as planned 200 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: and there were no big surprises, sure I could see 201 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: myself getting a quarterback in round six of a single 202 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 1: quarterback league, an elite quarterback. Of course, I'm not taking 203 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger in the sixth round. But it all has 204 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,439 Speaker 1: to do with how comfortable you are with your other positions, 205 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 1: knowing that some of those other players will more than 206 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: likely bust. I tend to play it safe and continuously 207 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,199 Speaker 1: draft run and wideouts into the late rounds because that's 208 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: generally what market value dictates. As I say all the time, 209 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: you have to be reactive during a draft. You shouldn't 210 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: go into the draft assuming when you'll take certain non 211 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: running backs and wide receivers. But I get it. This 212 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 1: has to do with superflex leagues or two quarterback leagues. 213 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: The problem is that there's far more ambiguity in these 214 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: types of formats than normal ones. There's less data to 215 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: tell you how things will go because they're not the norm. 216 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: So here's my advice. My advice to you would be 217 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: to find a group of quarterbacks you'd be comfortable drafting 218 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: as your QB. One, maybe in that Andy Dalton tier. 219 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: When one of them drops off the board, be ready 220 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: to draft another one in that tier. And then the 221 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: way I handle my QB two spot or my superflex 222 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: spot is to platoon some lower end guys like Carson Palmer, 223 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill or Joe Flacco together and have a decent 224 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: enough three headed monster, all while crushing the wide receiver 225 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 1: and running back game. This next one is from Twitter. 226 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: You can ask me questions on Twitter at late Round QB. 227 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: It's from Scott Matthews at Scott math four. He says 228 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: sixteen team standard one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, 229 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: one tight end, one defense, one kicker, and he gets 230 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: to keep four guys. Any advice on how to pick 231 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: between Crowell, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas, Marteves Bryant, and Travis Kelcey. 232 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: So to me, you're obviously keeping Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas, 233 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 1: and I think given that it's a standard scoring league, 234 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: Isaiah Crowell is a strong guy to keep as well. 235 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: That means this comes down to Travis Kelcey and Marteves Bryant. 236 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: If you listen to the podcast on tailoring to your 237 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: league settings, you may think to go Marteves Bryant because 238 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: you're only starting one tight end in this league, so 239 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: the demand for the position is really low. You'd be 240 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: able to get a Kyle Rudolph type player pretty late, 241 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: so the number of points you're sacrificing by choosing Kelsey 242 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: isn't as great as you may initially think. It's why 243 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: VORP formulas can be so flawed, because it won't account 244 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 1: for baseline market value. If you have any questions around that, 245 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: I did a podcast on value based drafting and VORP 246 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. I don't think that's necessarily 247 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: wrong and wouldn't fault you for keeping Martavis as your 248 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: final keeper. That's especially true because you've got two elite 249 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: wideouts already, so your third receiver can be someone who 250 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: may be a little bit more volatile. However, since Travis 251 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: Kelce does have such an interesting upside, and since your 252 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: wide receiver spots are already filled with Michael Thomas and 253 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 1: Amari Cooper in a sixteen team league, I think keeping 254 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: Kelsey is absolutely fine as well. He's easily the number 255 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: two tight end of my model, behind only Gronk, and 256 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: he should give you nice production week in and week out. 257 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: In fact, I would bet that ninety percent of the 258 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: people listening to this podcast right now would keep Travis 259 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: Kelcey over Marteves Bryant, but I think it's a lot 260 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 1: closer than the most probably would assume. Given the supply 261 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: and demand of these positions and where you can get 262 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 1: replacement level guys, I'd probably still lean Kelsey though at 263 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 1: that last spot. This next one's an email from Charlie Nunn. Hi, JJ, 264 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: love the show and your realist approach to fantasy football. 265 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: Was wondering if you could elaborate on how to approach 266 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 1: a keeper selection. Now, obviously it's based on team makeup, 267 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: draft strategy, available players, and other variables. Reason for asking 268 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: is the current dilemma I face. I'm in the fifth 269 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: consecutive year of my half PPR Main Friends Slash Money League. 270 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: Stakes are high and competition is strong. Each offseason, we 271 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 1: select a keeper that follows these rules, drafted in the 272 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: fifth round or later of the previous year's draft. Note 273 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 1: everyone's keeper takes up a first pick the following year, 274 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 1: so technically drafted after the sixth round can't keep the 275 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: same player over consecutive years, and then the last thing 276 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: has had to end the fantasy season with the player 277 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: on your roster for him to be kept. I've never 278 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: own my choices this year to Mike Gilleslee, Amer Abdullah, 279 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 1: and Kenneth Dixon. Most teams keep a running back, which 280 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 1: makes for slim pickings in the draft. I find myself 281 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 1: drafting running back in the top two rounds while trying 282 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: to keep one as well. Of those, who would you pick? 283 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: And what is your thought process to approach this sort 284 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: of scenario? So we've already gone through a couple keeper scenarios, 285 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: so I'm glad you asked the process question. Really, it's 286 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: just weighing market value or average draft cost with where 287 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: you can keep the player, and then adding your personal evaluation. 288 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: Sometimes you'll have to weigh things like league tendencies, as 289 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: I talked through earlier with the Tom Brady example, But 290 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,719 Speaker 1: that's really the easiest way to think of keepers. You 291 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 1: should ask what's the player's actual ADP, what am I 292 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: keeping him for? And how do I feel about that player? 293 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: And when the cost is the exact same for any keeper, 294 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: it makes things one hundred times easier. Like imagine going 295 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: to buy a car and you had three choices to 296 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: choose from. One of them was a two thousand and 297 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: three Honda Civic. One of them was a two thousand 298 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: and four Honda Civic, and one of them was a Ferrari. 299 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: If you didn't have to worry about cost, which car 300 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: would you choose? Pretty obvious, right, the two thousand and 301 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: four Civic. No, I'm kidding. Obviously, I'm kidding. You would 302 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: take the Ferrari, just like you take Antonio Brown over 303 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: Marvin Jones as a keeper. So given your dilemma, you're 304 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: just choosing who you'd like most of the three running 305 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: backs you've listed. First, I would not be keeping Kenneth Dixon. 306 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: He's going to rot on your bench to start the 307 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: season for four games and you can't even keep him 308 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: the following year. There's no reason to play into that. 309 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: So it comes down to a Mir Abdullah or Mike Gillisley, 310 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: and to me, it's Gillislee. Abdullah is kind of in 311 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: this strange no man's land where he's not the main 312 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: receiving back in that backfield and more than likely won't 313 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: be the goal line back. There's just not a ton 314 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: of upside gillis Lee. While I'm not banking on him 315 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: being the guy in New England like Lugarrett Blunt was, 316 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: he at least has plenty of upside that you'd want 317 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: out of a hypothetical sixth rounder. I'd rather try to 318 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: capture that there and then go running back heavy, as 319 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: you noted you usually do, and have him as my 320 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: RB two or RB three going into the season. This 321 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: next one's an email from Matt Rice. He says, Hey, JJ, 322 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: when do you think defense or special teams should be 323 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: targeted for drafting purposes? I'm going to league that values 324 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: return yards for both defenses and players, which made Tyreek 325 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: Hill a stud last year. Haven't seen much of a 326 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: consensus on when defenses should be selected either. Are they 327 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: undervalued in terms of fantasy performance? I guess the same 328 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: could be said for kickers as well. Should we be 329 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: targeting the more efficient and effective teams or is streaming 330 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: just the better option because of how valuable draft picks 331 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: tend to be. Thanks Matt, streaming is the most effective 332 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: way to maximize kicker and defensive performance. I hate to 333 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: sound like a broken record, but it goes back to 334 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: the supply and demand concept of fantasy football. You're only 335 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: starting one of them. You're starting many running backs and 336 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: many wide receivers. Therefore, kickers and defenses are less important. 337 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: And there's also a ton of usable ones over the 338 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: last six years in standard scoring leagues, the most usable 339 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: top twelve performances a defense has posted as eleven, and 340 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 1: it's happened four times. You get far more at even 341 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: the quarterback position than that. Meanwhile, there's been a ton 342 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: of defenses who have provided seven, eight, or nine usable weeks. 343 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: In other words, without boring you with the breakdown, defenses 344 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: are scrunched together very tightly from a weekly performance standpoint, 345 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: meaning there's very little differentiation from one to the next. 346 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: Maybe looking at just last season will help you. The 347 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 1: Chiefs gave you eleven top twelve performances out of fifteen weeks. 348 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: The Ravens and Seahawks gave you nine, the Broncos gave 349 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: you eight, and then nine defenses gave you seven top 350 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: twelve performances. That means everyone in your twelve team league 351 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 1: would hypothetically be getting seven to eleven weekly performances from 352 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: a defense, and that's assuming you're not able to do 353 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: better than that by streaming. And for what it's that's worth, 354 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: this is precisely why quarterbacks aren't very valuable in fantasy 355 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 1: football as well. There are fewer true elite ones because 356 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: the position has seen an influx of talent, but on 357 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: top of that, you're starting just one, so everyone basically 358 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 1: has a usable quarterback in a standard league, and that's 359 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: really why you wait until the final rounds to draft 360 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 1: a defense or even a kicker. This next one's from 361 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: Michael Meeson. Hi, JJ love the podcast. You've talked about 362 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: the importance of knowing your league's settings. I'm preparing for 363 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: a fourteen team auction startup. I'm used to ten and 364 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 1: twelve team leagues. How does having fourteen teams change things? 365 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: I assume running back and tight end become a little 366 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 1: bit more important. Thanks JJ, Michael. Honestly, Michael, not a 367 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: whole lot. But if you want a high level look 368 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: at what would change, think again about the supply and 369 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 1: demand of these positions. Since you're starting one tight end, 370 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: now fourteen tight ends will be started each week instead 371 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 1: of ten or twelve. But you're starting two running backs 372 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: and maybe three, meaning an additional four to six running 373 00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: backs are being started, So tight end shouldn't be concer 374 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 1: more valuable. The reason you mentioned that maybe because you 375 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 1: see a massive drop off in production when you hit 376 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 1: tight end fourteen or so, But I don't think that 377 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: would ever be significant enough to dictate a change in 378 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 1: your draft plan. Just draft as you usually would, and 379 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 1: maybe putting even stronger emphasis on those non ONESIE positions 380 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: like wide receiver and running back. This next one is 381 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: from Adrian from Toronto. Hey Man, longtime listener, reader and follower. 382 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: Your late round QB work has helped me bring home 383 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: championships in the past, So thanks a ton for all 384 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: your hard work. That's great to hear, Adrian. My question 385 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: is to Marius Thomas versus Ashon, Jeffrey versus Sammy Watkins. 386 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 1: Could you please give your thoughts slash rank these guys 387 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: while also factoring their ADP costs When doing mocks, I 388 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: always find myself stuck between them in the third round. 389 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: Thanks a lot. Can't state how much I appreciate the 390 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: hashtag free content. Adrian from Toronto. So, Adrian, I can 391 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: tell you what my model thinks, and that's a ranking 392 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: of Sammy Watkins, then to Marius and then al Sean. 393 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: But I do want to reference the podcast I did 394 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: earlier in the week on predictability. Sammy and Alshan are 395 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:03,400 Speaker 1: both more weekly volatile players, while de Marius will give 396 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 1: you more consistent work. The former two also brings some 397 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: injury risk for what it's worth. So while I'd approach 398 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: the draft in that manner, i'd be getting Watkins before 399 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 1: those two other dudes. I also want to create the 400 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: best balance on my team. If I went with AJ 401 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: Green to start, or maybe Des in the second round, 402 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 1: I think the Marius is a smarter pick to combat 403 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 1: the weekly ceiling with a weekly floor. The last question 404 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: in this week's Mailbag episode comes from Dan Schmelzer. Hey, JJ, 405 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: I have a question about a keeper decision and a 406 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: ten team league. I plan it is a standard scoring 407 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: league with one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, 408 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: one tight end, and two flex I've been able to 409 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: roll through this league for years, but a recent rule 410 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: change is going to make it different. Before it was 411 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: more of a dynasty league with players being kept four 412 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 1: round values. Now it is a straightforward four keepers and 413 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: you must keep four. I know that I will keep 414 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: Mike Evans, so I need three keepers out of AJ Green, 415 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: Todd Gurley, Gronk Dez and Brandon Cooks. My gut tells 416 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 1: me to go with Green early and Dez and figure 417 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 1: out tight end in the draft. But is Gronk too 418 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: good to pass up. I'm confident in my ability to 419 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: fill running backs and wide receivers in the draft too, 420 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 1: so maybe the upside of Gronk is worth keeping. I'm 421 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: also not super high on Girley, so maybe the play 422 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: is to keep Green, Dez and Gronk Cooks. Probably isn't 423 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: in the conversation, but I figured I'd throw him in 424 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: there to see what you think. Any help would be 425 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 1: greatly appreciated. Thanks Dan. Keeping Mike Evans is the play, 426 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: but so is Aj Green. I actually like Aj Green 427 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,719 Speaker 1: more than I like Mike Evans this year. Well, Evans 428 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: is fine. I'm worried about there being more weapons and 429 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: his drop off last year. When the Bucks defense started 430 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: playing well and when they started to win games, they 431 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 1: were a lot more run heavy, and that played a 432 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: role in Evans' more low end wide receiver work rather 433 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: than the elite play that he was providing to start 434 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 1: the year. The drop off occurred because the Bucks were 435 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: playing better ball. So now it comes down to Gronk, 436 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: Dez or Girly. Though this is a standard league and 437 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 1: we should lean running back, I'm admittedly not really into 438 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: Girly given what happened last year. The offense is not 439 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: in good shit, and while he should see plenty of 440 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: volume and he looks decent enough in my model, I 441 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: just worry he's going to like last year post consistent 442 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: RB two numbers and just end up being a de 443 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: facto RB one because he didn't get hurt. So then 444 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: it would be down to Des and Gronk. Those would 445 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: be your two keepers. But I'm gonna just run through 446 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: who I like most out of this group and just 447 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 1: talk through the logic. Given it's a standard league and 448 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: your league setup has just two wide receiver spots, I 449 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: think my approach may be to go Gronk and then 450 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: go with a running back heavy draft. That's especially true 451 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: if you're confident in your ability to get wide outs 452 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,120 Speaker 1: and running backs during that draft. With that being said, though, 453 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: I think your last keeper spots depend a lot on 454 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: who you'd be able to select come draft time. If 455 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: people are keeping a lot of running backs and Gurley 456 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: would far and away be the best running back available, 457 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 1: then you might have to keep Gurley based on that alone. 458 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 1: If there are going to be a lot of wideouts 459 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: and running backs available, then there's a better opportunity cost 460 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: and keeping a guy like Rob Gronkowski, Evans and AJ 461 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: Green are the two locks we know that you're keeping 462 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: Mike Evans, You're keeping Aj Green. The other two guys 463 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 1: of your see have everything to do with who your 464 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: league mates are selecting as their keepers. That I'll do 465 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 1: it for this week's questions, though, as always, if you 466 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,159 Speaker 1: have any questions that you'd like to ask, hit me 467 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,120 Speaker 1: up on Twitter at Late Round QB, or you can 468 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 1: submit it by emailing me at jjat number fire dot com. 469 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 1: I'll do my best to get back to you, but 470 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: with more and more questions it's becoming a little more difficult. 471 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: So if I don't get back to you, I apologize, 472 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 1: but I'll try my best to get to the question 473 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 1: on the show as quickly as possible. If you haven't 474 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: subscribed to the show yet, do so immediately. You can 475 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: find it on Soundclouds, Stitch, your iTunes, and Google Play 476 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: pretty much anywhere where podcasts can be found. And while 477 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: you're on iTunes, i'd greatly appreciate a rating and review. 478 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: Thanks everyone, have a good one.