Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily. We bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. John I just
Speaker 1: put on on Twitter the definitive story of this morning,
Speaker 1: particularly for our global Wall Street audience. Tracy Halloway Behu
Speaker 1: and Sophia Hardy Acosta with the definitive article on the
Speaker 1: derivative strategies that have led to this margin callum its.
Speaker 1: Halloway joins us right now, Bloomberg Markets Managing Editor. Down
Speaker 1: at the bottom, Tracy of your article, you remind us
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, Financial Ireland almost collapsed over
Speaker 1: a margin call a busted derivatives to strategy. Is there
Speaker 1: any sense in this two thousand twenty one of the
Speaker 1: Irish agony of two thousand eight. Well, I think you
Speaker 1: and Jonathan just laid out the scene pretty well there.
Speaker 1: So far, we haven't seen signs that this is really
Speaker 1: unnerving the wider market. Uh. Most investors seem to be
Speaker 1: taking it in stride. I guess the question is when
Speaker 1: you're looking at these kind of interlinkages in the financial system,
Speaker 1: like where well, there are going to be more losses, right,
Speaker 1: we think there's more exposure out there. And then the
Speaker 1: question is why did the prime brokers have this different reaction?
Speaker 1: So Jonathan alluded to that, you know, Nomura and Credit
Speaker 1: Chice start saying that they have bosses. Morgan Stanley hasn't
Speaker 1: said anything. Gold Minty to have managed it quite well.
Speaker 1: What did the prime brokers do differently that resulted in
Speaker 1: all these different um well results, Trice is it's still
Speaker 1: too early to tell about the way they've handled this.
Speaker 1: Is it's still too early to draw and conclude, gents.
Speaker 1: I think that's right. I mean, one of the big
Speaker 1: outcomes of this might be additional scrutiny on derivatives deployed
Speaker 1: by hedge funds and institutional investors. So this was a
Speaker 1: family office that seems to have built up these huge positions.
Speaker 1: We're talking billions of dollars worth of total return swaps
Speaker 1: and contracts for difference, but no one seemed to have
Speaker 1: really known about it or connected the dots, certainly not
Speaker 1: the prime brokers. Most hedge funds are required to disclose
Speaker 1: their holdings um if they're actually buying the stop, but
Speaker 1: if you're doing it through derivatives, it's basically a loophole
Speaker 1: that allows you to get tons of exposure without having
Speaker 1: to declare it. And so the question I think for
Speaker 1: regulators is going to be how endemic is this in
Speaker 1: the financial system and is there a possibility that it
Speaker 1: can be a disturbing force on the wider market. And
Speaker 1: of course we've seen additional appearing on hedge funds already
Speaker 1: because of the Robin Hood and game stop scenario. So
Speaker 1: this is another unflattering spotlight cast on hedge fund slash
Speaker 1: family offices. It's tracy from your perspective so far, and
Speaker 1: I asked this in a way that gives you enough
Speaker 1: room just to say I simply don't know. But from
Speaker 1: what you're looking at the moment, do you find it
Speaker 1: strange about the amount of ropes so to speak, that
Speaker 1: this particular investment firm was given Bryan Prime Brokers. Um, Well,
Speaker 1: there is a question about risk management here. It seems
Speaker 1: to have been very very large positions and again possibly
Speaker 1: positions in single stock. So there's a sort of whale
Speaker 1: effect there. The other question is Bill Wang, of course,
Speaker 1: is famous for insider trading. I think back in two
Speaker 1: thousand and twelve or two thousand fourteen, I want to say, um,
Speaker 1: it was a long time since then, but lots of
Speaker 1: people are asking why the prime brokers fret comfortable extending
Speaker 1: this kind of financing. I mean, Tracy, I know that
Speaker 1: you've done interviews with Bobby exel Rod before a billions
Speaker 1: and it's all great and fine, but you make the
Speaker 1: distinction between billions is entertainment, hedge funds and a family office?
Speaker 1: Did this occur because the family office is different? That
Speaker 1: there isn't more of a community that can brace itself
Speaker 1: and break against too much leverage? Is what we're really
Speaker 1: talking about. One guy made this happen. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think there's a point to be made there, but ultimately,
Speaker 1: a family office isn't that different to a hedge fund? Right? Um,
Speaker 1: but there is a question. Yeah, sorry, go ahead. No,
Speaker 1: it's just that, you know west Tricy, Tom just jumps
Speaker 1: in and says things and you've just got to carry on, Toll.
Speaker 1: We just keep on talking, Tracy. You know you're allowed
Speaker 1: to be rude. I mean, the family office, a family
Speaker 1: office is fairly identical to a hedge fund. It just
Speaker 1: that it can't really take outside capital. So the disclosure requirements,
Speaker 1: you know that regulators are going to be looking at. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the idea that it acted by itself, I'm not too
Speaker 1: sure about that. I mean, what if true is that
Speaker 1: you have this big fund that seems to have all
Speaker 1: these interconnections with the rest of the market. Trice Halloway,
Speaker 1: it's going to see it as always blue back markets managing.
Speaker 1: Get it set. If you are a black bear from Maine,
Speaker 1: you get a job in accounting out of the University
Speaker 1: of Maine forty years ago. That's what Gerard Cassidy did.
Speaker 1: He is legendary at RBC Capital Markets and we are
Speaker 1: thrilled to get his perspective because in my rolodex, he's
Speaker 1: the only one that remembers the collapse of Continental Illinois
Speaker 1: in Chicago. Girard, let's cut to the chase. You and
Speaker 1: I have seen this before. Why is this tobacco of
Speaker 1: this hedge fund different? I think, thank you for having
Speaker 1: me on the program, man. I would say, first, it's
Speaker 1: the size. I mean, this is an enormous size hedge fund.
Speaker 1: When you put it into perspective over the last thirty years.
Speaker 1: So when you think about long term capital and what
Speaker 1: happened to them, and back in the late nineties, you
Speaker 1: might remember, you know, they weren't as large as what
Speaker 1: we're just saying from this one situation developed on Friday.
Speaker 1: And so to me, that's the implication is that you know,
Speaker 1: we allowed or companies grow very quickly into the billions
Speaker 1: of dollars and they get their watch amounts of leverage,
Speaker 1: and as you know, leverage leafs to problems when asset
Speaker 1: prices moved very quickly. We've seen this lesson so many
Speaker 1: times before, and again the leverage is extraordinary, Gerard. What
Speaker 1: does a bank actually do when this event occurs? What's
Speaker 1: happening this morning for Mr Gorman? What's happening for the
Speaker 1: leadership of Nomura, the new management of credit suites? How
Speaker 1: do they unwind a trade in tobacco, a prime brokerage
Speaker 1: tobacco like this? Well, hopefully Tom that the assets involved
Speaker 1: but have to be liquidated aren't very illiquid, because the
Speaker 1: more liquidity that these assets may have, the greater the
Speaker 1: losses will be. We'll find out more this week. Is
Speaker 1: this story unfolds? What exactly happened here. But the first
Speaker 1: thing that these obviously management teams will do, we'll go
Speaker 1: to seize collateral, liquidate positions, and then unfortunately in cases
Speaker 1: and in some of these cases, you're going to see
Speaker 1: losses as I think No More may have already announced
Speaker 1: as well as Credit Swiss. So the first thing they
Speaker 1: do is seize the collateral, liquidate the account, and then
Speaker 1: follow up hopefully by seizing other assets if there are
Speaker 1: any other assets that they're permitted to go after, to
Speaker 1: cover those losses, and try and price this dedicately. Because
Speaker 1: some of these banks don't fall under your conference, so
Speaker 1: let's keep things as general as possibly if I can,
Speaker 1: so you're able to comment them on them in detail.
Speaker 1: What would it be that would take say, a couple
Speaker 1: of banks to face significant loss is and a couple
Speaker 1: of other banks that seem to say it's immaterial. Would
Speaker 1: it just be the size of exposure or is it
Speaker 1: something about the way they handled it when things started
Speaker 1: to blow up? John, I think it's it's it's both.
Speaker 1: But your first point is very well said, the size
Speaker 1: of exposure, so that that, to me is probably going
Speaker 1: to be one of the real distinguishing uh. Factors between
Speaker 1: companies that have your material losses versus multibillion dollar losses.
Speaker 1: But second, it's also the controls and procedures and the
Speaker 1: level of skill and experience of the people involved in
Speaker 1: handling the account. And so you may have people that
Speaker 1: have fifteen twenty years of experience handling this account and
Speaker 1: therefore can move quicker, or you have, see the science
Speaker 1: more clearly, the inexperienced person. Well, let's talk about this account.
Speaker 1: There's something about this particular account that generated a lot
Speaker 1: of competition, a lot of demand to have this client
Speaker 1: on the book's chair, and that includes government sax and
Speaker 1: our latest reporting saying that compliance basically rejected this client
Speaker 1: again and again and again. And that's something changed a
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. Jed, what's you'll take as an
Speaker 1: analyst to here that this morning? That's a little disturbing that,
Speaker 1: you know, when you hear about an account opening that
Speaker 1: has been rejected more than once by the compliance department
Speaker 1: and eventually they can get to open the account, you know,
Speaker 1: obviously shows how aggressive certain companies are in trying to
Speaker 1: you know, win new business. Obviously, to grow their business,
Speaker 1: you grow with existing customers. We all know that but
Speaker 1: also adding new customers into the fold is very important
Speaker 1: as well. Gerard a question, and I don't want to
Speaker 1: get you in trouble with OURBC, but I think you
Speaker 1: know we've known each other long enough where we can
Speaker 1: ask us for our audience worldwide. The heart of the
Speaker 1: matter is a meeting where a manager says, we're number
Speaker 1: four in blah blah blah, and we need to be
Speaker 1: numbered two by September so we can bonus out and
Speaker 1: keep our jobs. Isn't that the heart of the matter
Speaker 1: in this repetitive reality of too much leverage leading to
Speaker 1: difficult losses. Tom, I think that has a real influence
Speaker 1: on it, no doubt about it. The so called league tables,
Speaker 1: which are more in the investment banking area than the
Speaker 1: trading area. But these companies to pride themselves and being
Speaker 1: at the top of those stables. And I know when
Speaker 1: you look at the big broker dealers here in the
Speaker 1: United States, clearly they're not going to be happy being
Speaker 1: at the bottom or the lower portion of those tables.
Speaker 1: So there's that pressure there, no doubt about it. I
Speaker 1: don't disagree with you. Would you change by old cell
Speaker 1: on Golden Sex or Morgan Stanley not on this news alone.
Speaker 1: You know, this comes with the territory, and it sounds
Speaker 1: kind of glib, but it's truly the case because when
Speaker 1: when you think about what they're doing every day, this
Speaker 1: type of risk is there and if you have the
Speaker 1: controls and procedures in place to mitigate the risk, which
Speaker 1: again we'll find out if that's the case, and we'll
Speaker 1: really could separate these broke the dealers like a more
Speaker 1: constiling in golden from the others. If they are exposed
Speaker 1: and there's minimal loss or no loss, then that's obviously
Speaker 1: sets them apart from the people that super sizeable losses.
Speaker 1: Do you know what question will be asked that this morning?
Speaker 1: One of the many questions is just how many bill
Speaker 1: flanks around there right now? And if you're overseeing the
Speaker 1: prime brokerage unit any of these banks that fall under
Speaker 1: your coverage, what do you think they're doing right now?
Speaker 1: We do a full scale rep price of every single
Speaker 1: client on the books that we're looking for more bill
Speaker 1: flanks out there that we need to actually trim exposure
Speaker 1: to Johnathan, I think they're definitely gonna do deep dives
Speaker 1: to make sure that their books are in order. Um
Speaker 1: as you pointed out, Um, they want to make sure
Speaker 1: that you know there's not exposures like this to other customers,
Speaker 1: So you're right, there will always be. But I would
Speaker 1: also point out they do this regularly. You know, it's
Speaker 1: not one and done, so they're constantly monitoring their brain
Speaker 1: rug Ridge accounts. But maybe a more in depth review
Speaker 1: is warranted considering what happened on Friday. To be rude
Speaker 1: of me to let you go without getting its help
Speaker 1: pick what is it right now? Uh done? Them was
Speaker 1: still we're importing to Bank America. I think you guys
Speaker 1: talked about how strongly vaccinations were for this best week.
Speaker 1: Also the employment members coming out Friday, which means this
Speaker 1: U S economy is really geared up for some real
Speaker 1: strong growth. Bank America is the best way to play that.
Speaker 1: Jared a cash up, so I gotta see it. John Cassidy,
Speaker 1: that of Obvious Capital Markets, head of US Bank Equity Strategy.
Speaker 1: Away from the story, David Kelly will join US. He's
Speaker 1: the JP Morgan Asset Management as their chief global strategists.
Speaker 1: He wouldn't know a derivative strategy if it hit him
Speaker 1: over the head, so he's lucky this morning. He doesn't
Speaker 1: have to talk about this. What you can talk about, David,
Speaker 1: this is so important is given a boom economy, how
Speaker 1: your allocation, how your temperament at JP Morgan asset Management changes,
Speaker 1: How do you adapt to a boom economy? Well, I
Speaker 1: think the first thing is you recognize that people have
Speaker 1: not fully priced in what's going on here. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is the calm before the surge. We're still looking
Speaker 1: at about four GDP growth in the first quarter. Nothing
Speaker 1: terribly exciting going on. But what we're seeing is this
Speaker 1: road out of vaccines. We're seeing this road out of
Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. You've got the President about to announce another
Speaker 1: proposal UM in this week in Pittsburgh, and this is
Speaker 1: going to build to a lot of momentum as this
Speaker 1: year goes on. So UM, I think the environment is
Speaker 1: going to heat up a lot more than is really
Speaker 1: pricing into markets. That means higher interest rates, and what
Speaker 1: that really means is the rotation probably continues, the rotation
Speaker 1: from growth to value, rotation from large cap growth to
Speaker 1: small cap value, the ROA, and perhaps uh some continued
Speaker 1: rotation to international I think all of that is still
Speaker 1: on the table. Given the heating up in the in
Speaker 1: the economy that we expect over the next nine months.
Speaker 1: What you just said. I've also heard of black Rock
Speaker 1: David that maybe this is all under appreciated still, that
Speaker 1: this data are about to get it is still going
Speaker 1: to be unexpected to some people. How do you gauge
Speaker 1: that in this market at the moment? Well, I think
Speaker 1: the real point is that people have not seen this before.
Speaker 1: I mean, we have not seen this magnitude of fiscal
Speaker 1: stimuls along with a full pandemic recovery. It's it's completely
Speaker 1: unknown territory, So I don't think people have a good
Speaker 1: way of measuring what this is likely to do. But
Speaker 1: I think the important point is if you've got all
Speaker 1: the stimulus, it's can only go in one of two places.
Speaker 1: It's either going to get push up real output or
Speaker 1: it's going to push up inflation um and either of
Speaker 1: those you know scenarios, uh you know does benefitsypnical stocks,
Speaker 1: does suggest higher interest rates. So I think one way
Speaker 1: the other we're going to get higher interest rates out
Speaker 1: of this. And I think that it's just because this
Speaker 1: is so new and there's still such uncertainty about how
Speaker 1: an economy recovers from a pandemic. I think that's why
Speaker 1: people are under appreciating it right now. That's the mystery
Speaker 1: of what's about to happen in the next couple of
Speaker 1: months is how people respond to the data we're about
Speaker 1: to see. What's your game plan? How do you think
Speaker 1: people will respond to the data were about to see
Speaker 1: the payroll sprint which could be huge this coming Friday,
Speaker 1: inflation print when the base effects start a kick in
Speaker 1: this month and next. Well, obviously know you know people
Speaker 1: have to keep an eye on on their tax exposure.
Speaker 1: But if you can rebounce to make sure you're not
Speaker 1: underweight value, to make sure you're not underweighted international, to
Speaker 1: make sure you're not overweight the most you know, the
Speaker 1: highest pe and the most exuberant sectors of the economy.
Speaker 1: Because you know what we what we're seeing right now,
Speaker 1: you know in the story you're just covering is to
Speaker 1: something said part of a much broader story, which is,
Speaker 1: if you have a mismatch of lots of exuberance and
Speaker 1: lots of liquidity, you end up with excess leverage and
Speaker 1: bad things happen. And you can think of plenty of
Speaker 1: various markets where people are too exuberant and that exuberance
Speaker 1: is being fed by low interest rates, and those low
Speaker 1: interest rates are going to go away over time, and
Speaker 1: I think that's what people really need to pay attention to. Here,
Speaker 1: walk down the income statement. Dr Kelly, I'm gonna get revenue.
Speaker 1: I'm going to get organic revenue growth like I've never
Speaker 1: seen before. And into Q two, Q three, Q four,
Speaker 1: do we get margin compression down the balance sheet or
Speaker 1: does revenues just drift away? Which is I think the
Speaker 1: margin compression comes a little later. I mean, we're going
Speaker 1: to have such a surgeon demand over the second third,
Speaker 1: fourth quarters, first quarter of next year. At the same time,
Speaker 1: you know, I think the Fed has put out this
Speaker 1: forward guidance which forces them to be, you know, easier
Speaker 1: than they really should be. And so I think rates
Speaker 1: will rise, but just a little slower. And and particularly
Speaker 1: because you know so many companies have locked in long
Speaker 1: term financing, I don't think that squeezes margins too much.
Speaker 1: And we'll also see wage growth pick up, but again
Speaker 1: it's going to take a while these things lack of it.
Speaker 1: So I think the real margin pressure is going to
Speaker 1: come in two particularly as the economy then slows down again.
Speaker 1: I mean, what we've got right now is a crull,
Speaker 1: then a surgeon, and then a normalization. It's that normalization
Speaker 1: later on in twenty twenty two, which I think will
Speaker 1: so down Profit group. But right now profit growth looks
Speaker 1: extremely strong for this year. It's the eight point on
Speaker 1: my dashboard. David. When is David get back to the office.
Speaker 1: When does that happen? I'm thinking the middle of summer,
Speaker 1: summer twenty one three one, and I want, want, want
Speaker 1: to get back to and we say good morning to
Speaker 1: Mr Diamond, David, Thank you, David Kenny J F. Mulganasid Management,
Speaker 1: Shape Glove Strategists. Right now on Suez and our assumptions
Speaker 1: of hydrocarbon's is Stephen Shork of the Shork Report. He
Speaker 1: writes a hyper detailed inside Baseball Hydrocarbon Report. I don't
Speaker 1: understand two thirds of it, but I do understand that
Speaker 1: Stephen short is encyclopedic and how oil moves around this world,
Speaker 1: how open seas Steve Shark are are open seas right
Speaker 1: now when we see Suez shut down or the tensions
Speaker 1: of the South China Sea. Absolutely, Tom, it's great to
Speaker 1: be here. Thank you, and indeed with what we're looking
Speaker 1: at with Suez. We're talking about one tenth of the
Speaker 1: global trade in seaborn oil transits through the Suez Canal.
Speaker 1: A good deal about oil coming out of the Middle East,
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, create so forth going to markets in Europe
Speaker 1: and in the United States. So with the blockage, some
Speaker 1: I I understand, are papusing it. They're saying it's only
Speaker 1: ten percent, it's a minimus amount relative to the global trade.
Speaker 1: I will disagree. Uh. So the question now is that
Speaker 1: in a market that is as tightly traded as oil,
Speaker 1: any sort of disruption, let alone every ten barrels is
Speaker 1: not an in comparing contrasts to self China, see wrapping
Speaker 1: around the Straits of Malacca and up north of the
Speaker 1: Pacific rim with Suez Canal. Yeah, these are are significantly
Speaker 1: those two points at they're very narrow waterways where and
Speaker 1: they're global trade routes. Uh And there are two of
Speaker 1: the most important potential choke points with the global trade,
Speaker 1: not just in oil, but of course in all commodities.
Speaker 1: And I think that is really the story here when
Speaker 1: it comes to oil, whether it's at Suez or South.
Speaker 1: Trying to see South, trying to see straits, and the
Speaker 1: lock of course, is extremely important because all of your
Speaker 1: demand growth for oil and for consumer goods is primarily
Speaker 1: being driven by Asia. So to that standpoint, this while
Speaker 1: the headline of Suez and so forth is a supply
Speaker 1: side story, the overarching story in the oil market has
Speaker 1: been and will continue to be for the psillable future
Speaker 1: on the demand side. And this is where the issue
Speaker 1: really persist, because we forgot a bibrocated demand scenario here
Speaker 1: in the United States. The macro economic headlines we've been
Speaker 1: seeing have been very positive. Now keep in mind that
Speaker 1: over the next month, when we get the the ice
Speaker 1: storms and the debacle that we saw in the Mid
Speaker 1: Continent and the power markets last month, that's going to
Speaker 1: be factored into the next batch of numbers. But overall,
Speaker 1: that's a one off event, and the general trend is
Speaker 1: extremely positive for demands here in the US, and that's
Speaker 1: a great story, and it's bullish for commodities. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, you have the kind of sloppy rollout of
Speaker 1: the vaccinations in Europe. You have parts of the European
Speaker 1: economy once again shutting down the fear of actintagent spreading.
Speaker 1: So regardless of the supply, the supply situation will be
Speaker 1: fixed in the foreseeable future. The big question now remains
Speaker 1: under the demand side, Stephen. I hope you can indulge
Speaker 1: me just a little bit. When it comes to commodities
Speaker 1: and all we're talking about tankers going through the Suez.
Speaker 1: Can we talk about container shipping just for a moment.
Speaker 1: I hope you could just weigh in on this, because
Speaker 1: I think it's so important. Beyond what's happened in the
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, what we saw coming into the
Speaker 1: new year was container shipping costs absolutely go through the roof.
Speaker 1: We've seen the same with air freight as well. Clearly,
Speaker 1: there was a massive demand slump twelve months ago, then
Speaker 1: a huge inventory rebuild and increased demand off the back
Speaker 1: of that. In your mind, Stephen, how long does it
Speaker 1: take to work out some of these kings in the
Speaker 1: supply chain, work out some of this demand to be
Speaker 1: met with supply in the months to come. Yeah, absolutely, Jonathan.
Speaker 1: And to your point, the numbers that we're seeing out
Speaker 1: of your DADA being kept by the Federal Reserve Bank
Speaker 1: of Saint Louis. With regard to your point air freight
Speaker 1: travel and in shipping channels, I mean the amount of
Speaker 1: goods being shipped on US waterways on US flagged barges
Speaker 1: UH is surging right now. And again this goes to
Speaker 1: my thesis of a very strong demand picture here in
Speaker 1: the United States. But to your point, demand is strong,
Speaker 1: but there's only so much of an ability of capacity
Speaker 1: to move these cargoes. For instance, when we look at
Speaker 1: the ports of Long Beach in Los Angeles in southern California,
Speaker 1: those are the two largest container points for t e
Speaker 1: U S t e U s or twenty foot equivalent units. Basically,
Speaker 1: those are the metal boxes that you see on top
Speaker 1: of the Evergreen ship stuck in the Suez. That is
Speaker 1: a picture or a snapshot of the global trade. And
Speaker 1: when we look at these numbers UH, and these numbers
Speaker 1: are very important here in the United States in the
Speaker 1: months of July and August because that's all the goods
Speaker 1: coming into the ports of Southern California coming from Asia
Speaker 1: and this is always a great bell weather for retail
Speaker 1: demand in the fourth quarter going into the holidays. And
Speaker 1: so when we look at these numbers, we've been smashing
Speaker 1: numbers with the container flows coming into the United States
Speaker 1: beginning summer and those flows continue to the point where
Speaker 1: we have containers now hundreds of containers now anchored off
Speaker 1: the coast of southern California because there's no room in
Speaker 1: the end. So, to answer your question, while we've already
Speaker 1: been at this for going on nine months at at
Speaker 1: this point, and there's no uh site as to when
Speaker 1: this is going to end. So we've been in it
Speaker 1: for nine months, I'm gonna double it. I'll say at
Speaker 1: least another nine months before we can up this glut.
Speaker 1: Steven great to catch up. I'm really important dates how
Speaker 1: that Steven Shock that the Showgroport founda and at its up.
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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keen In. This is Bloomer