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Speaker 1: unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement.

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Speaker 1: I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and

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Speaker 1: talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a

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Speaker 1: broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred

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Speaker 1: yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the

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Speaker 1: first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this

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Speaker 1: team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically

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Speaker 1: their third different person is sort of assembling the game

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Speaker 1: plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an

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Speaker 1: absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.

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Speaker 1: He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really

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Speaker 1: nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean

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Speaker 1: just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.

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Speaker 1: But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.

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Speaker 1: They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.

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Speaker 1: Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,

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Speaker 1: But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,

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Speaker 1: it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams

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Speaker 1: before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.

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Speaker 1: Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out

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Speaker 1: and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like

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Speaker 1: he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,

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Speaker 1: accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,

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Speaker 1: Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula

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Speaker 1: Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think

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Speaker 1: he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He

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Speaker 1: took a punter. That's not what I would have done.

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Speaker 1: They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.

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Speaker 2: The staff.

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Speaker 1: It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable

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Speaker 1: about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple

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Speaker 1: of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,

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Speaker 1: they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody

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Speaker 1: in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just

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Speaker 1: nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was

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Speaker 1: an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams

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Speaker 1: had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this

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Speaker 1: last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in

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Speaker 1: his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at

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Speaker 1: Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't

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Speaker 1: have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is

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Speaker 1: a place to start, but I feel I feel sad

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Speaker 1: for the kid because and you can see the talent.

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Speaker 1: I mean you you would have to be trying to

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Speaker 1: make an argument to say you can't see his talent.

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Speaker 1: I mean last night or tonight was the first interception

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Speaker 1: he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.

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Speaker 1: And that's why this idea that you can just go

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Speaker 1: out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's

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Speaker 1: going to change the world. You know, that guy's never

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Speaker 1: been a head coach at the high school level. There

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Speaker 1: are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs

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Speaker 1: are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it

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Speaker 1: out for a year because I think next year you

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Speaker 1: could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would

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Speaker 1: be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out

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Speaker 1: there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott

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Speaker 1: does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a

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Speaker 1: good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are

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Speaker 1: really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching

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Speaker 1: opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,

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Speaker 1: I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other

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Speaker 1: takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position

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Speaker 1: in the NFL over the last twenty years that has

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Speaker 1: been the biggest bust rate in the first round is

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make

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Speaker 1: dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,

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Speaker 1: DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah

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Speaker 1: Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But

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Speaker 1: equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and

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Speaker 1: eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,

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Speaker 1: Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off

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Speaker 1: going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they

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Speaker 1: went in later rounds and got some prospect I think

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Speaker 1: from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.

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Speaker 1: You know, you look at the Chargers who are going

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe

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Speaker 1: Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight

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Speaker 1: and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver

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Speaker 1: talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf

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Speaker 1: second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if

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Speaker 1: you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you

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Speaker 1: have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as

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Speaker 1: general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,

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Speaker 1: but I think he made a major mistake last year

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Speaker 1: in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I

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Speaker 1: said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.

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Speaker 1: Last year. Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid

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Speaker 1: skilled positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move.

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Speaker 1: They're just mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched

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Speaker 1: on this. I mean, they are being handed just tire

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Speaker 1: fires and all their sports and come out tonight and

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Speaker 1: pack that stadium. Is you know, it's a tip of

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Speaker 1: the cap to one of the great American cities and

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Speaker 1: sports cities because fans in that city are getting ripped off.

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Speaker 1: The quality is awful. It's always been a very political

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Speaker 1: city and it feels like the same with the Bears.

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Speaker 1: It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess.

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Speaker 1: So again, I think my first choice would be vable.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he'd accept it. I have real

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Speaker 1: reservations about all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago,

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Speaker 1: Bobby Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score

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Speaker 1: this year. C J. Stroud has regressed badly. You know

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Speaker 1: the Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a lot, but he

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Speaker 1: struggled as a head coach college and Pro. You gotta

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Speaker 1: be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody

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Speaker 1: was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't even know where he's at now.

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Speaker 1: He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think,

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Speaker 1: what a franchise is broken? You got to you got

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Speaker 1: to get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit Harbaugh, Mike Framele.

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Speaker 1: That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.

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Speaker 1: I've said before that I'm I'm willing to change my

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Speaker 1: mind if I get no information. And I was thinking

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Speaker 1: about watching the Packers tonight about I'll give you an

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Speaker 1: example of something I radically changed my mind on. So

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Speaker 1: I would say, forty years ago, I liked the Olympics

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Speaker 1: far more than the World Cup. And the reason was

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Speaker 1: is at forty and forty five years ago and I'm,

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Speaker 1: you know, fifteen years old, twenty years old, college student,

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Speaker 1: high school student, and as somebody that absolutely loved sports.

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Speaker 1: You didn't get three straight weeks of sports. You didn't

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Speaker 1: have this proliferation of regional networks and local networks. You know,

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Speaker 1: when I was a kid growing up, fifteen years old,

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Speaker 1: you got an NBC Baseball Game of the week. You know,

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Speaker 1: I lived in around Seattle. I couldn't get Mariner games

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Speaker 1: except on radio. You couldn't watch Mariner games. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I was a kid from divorce. We didn't have the

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Speaker 1: money to go to Mariner games. It was a two

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Speaker 1: and a half hour drive. I lived on the beach

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Speaker 1: in Westport, Washington, so you know, like once every five years,

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Speaker 1: i'd go to a Mariner game. So the Olympics, you know,

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Speaker 1: for a sports obsessed fifteen and twenty year old, was

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Speaker 1: three straight weeks of sports. It didn't matter that I

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Speaker 1: didn't care about the sports at that point, I had

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Speaker 1: never skied. It didn't matter. I'd watch the Winter Olympics.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't in track, I didn't care. I watched the

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Speaker 1: Summer Olympics. It didn't matter. I still don't care about

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Speaker 1: Olympic sports, most of them. But it was three straight

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Speaker 1: weeks of sports. And then you have over the course

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Speaker 1: of the last forty forty five years, this proliferation of

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Speaker 1: cable and again all these networks. I can turn on

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Speaker 1: my television any day of the week and get twenty games.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can fish around on a Tuesday and

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Speaker 1: get you know, during the baseball season, I can watch

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Speaker 1: every baseball team. So the Olympics now today don't feel

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Speaker 1: as special to me because I didn't care about the

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Speaker 1: sports and the Olympics then or now. But the fact

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Speaker 1: that you got three straight weeks of sports was really unique.

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Speaker 1: Now it's not, And so now you could have the Olympics.

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Speaker 1: I'll watch the opening ceremonies, maybe a couple events. I

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Speaker 1: just don't care. But I love the World Cup. Some

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Speaker 1: of that is I worked at two networks with World

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Speaker 1: Cup and soccer analysts and experts, so I'm around more

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Speaker 1: soccer people, and frankly, you know, four years, you know

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Speaker 1: it's something new, it's something fresh. I mean, how many

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Speaker 1: NBA games, how many football games? Can I watch? The

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Speaker 1: quality of soccer is great. I know more about soccer.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if it was the other place or Fox,

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Speaker 1: I'll watch more soccer. A lot of my adult friends

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Speaker 1: have given up baseball and they're more soccer friends fans

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Speaker 1: on a Saturday morning, they'll watch English Premier League, you know,

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Speaker 1: And I have a lot of friends like that. I've

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Speaker 1: also gone to Europe more in my life, so I'm

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Speaker 1: just more I'm just more into the World Cup than soccer.

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Speaker 1: I've totally changed my opinion on that. And this is

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Speaker 1: where I get back to the Packers. I always thought

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Speaker 1: not having an owner was a disadvantage to the Packers.

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Speaker 1: Is that having a Stan cronkey who can literally as

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Speaker 1: he's on the tarmac true story of flying out of

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Speaker 1: the country can tell Sean McVay, all right, go for it,

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Speaker 1: Go get Matt Stafford, Like you know, it's gonna be expensive.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna pay for Jared Goff in Detroit and Stafford

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Speaker 1: in LA. Let's go for it. Big advantage. But I'm

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Speaker 1: watching the Packers tonight and think about this. Ten of

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Speaker 1: thirty two teams in the NFL, thirty one percent of

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Speaker 1: the NFL has five wins or fewer for a couple

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Speaker 1: weeks to go. So the Saints have five and they'll

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Speaker 1: lose tonight Carolina. The Jets in Chicago have four, four

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Speaker 1: and eleven. Vegas Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville and New England are

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Speaker 1: three and twelve, and the Giants are two and thirteen.

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Speaker 1: So that's ten of thirty two teams. That was only

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Speaker 1: five last year. It's doubled. That is a really really

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Speaker 1: large bottom and unwatchable part of the NFL feels very

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Speaker 1: much like the NBA. It really does. I mean thirty

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Speaker 1: percent of the NBA or more as unwatchable. And I

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Speaker 1: think there are two reasons for that number.

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Speaker 2: One more and more.

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Speaker 1: Because a rule changes and culture. Quarterback just means more.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's only one great quarterback in the NFL

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Speaker 1: that's not going to make the playoffs. Joe Burrow, cheapest

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Speaker 1: owner in the league, terrible defense, shaky o line, and

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Speaker 1: he's still fighting for a playoff spot. They may make it.

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Speaker 1: Statistically very little chance, but they may make it. He's

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Speaker 1: the only great quarterback that won't make the playoffs. If

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Speaker 1: you have one year in, if you have a good

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels, bon Nix, you're in. Michael Pennix,

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Speaker 1: my guess now is going to win the remaining games

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Speaker 1: for Atlanta. They'll be in. If you just have a

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Speaker 1: competent rookie quarterback, a Pennex down the stretch, Bononix, Jayden Daniels,

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Speaker 1: You're in. So quarterbacks more important than ever. And number

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Speaker 1: two is billionaire owners. Now the poorest owners a billionaire

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Speaker 1: and it wasn't like that ten years ago. And billionaire

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Speaker 1: owners are less patient. Firing as staff and having to

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Speaker 1: pay forty five million dollars is more of a rounding air.

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Speaker 1: And so you have more chaos among coaching staffs and

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Speaker 1: more chaos in the coaching community. So between it's more

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Speaker 1: quarterback centric and more impulsive owners, you just have more

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Speaker 1: hot messes in the NFL. And I'm watching tonight. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm one of these guys that can sit down and

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Speaker 1: watch almost any NFL team. Giants unwatchable, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas,

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Speaker 1: hard to watch, Carolina with Bryce Young not can to

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Speaker 1: watch it, a little, Jets, Aaron Rodgers. I'll watch Chicago,

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Speaker 1: I'll watch Saints tonight, unwatchable. So it's just interesting. It's

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Speaker 1: something I've really changed my mind on is that having

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Speaker 1: an owner I always thought was a huge advantage, but

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Speaker 1: I think Green Bay going forward having no owner because

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Speaker 1: I now believe because of the impulsive nature of billionaires,

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Speaker 1: richer owners, less patient, more impulsive. There's only about four

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Speaker 1: to five great owners. I think the Hunt family in

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Speaker 1: Kansas City's excellent. Stan Kronkey with the Rams is really excellent.

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Speaker 1: You know, Robert Kraft. People will argue he's frugal but

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Speaker 1: pretty solid owner. But there's a lot of average to

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Speaker 1: below average owners right now. There's more good quarterbacks and

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Speaker 1: good coaches in the NFL than great owners. And I

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Speaker 1: think going forward, you're allowed to be much more patient.

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Speaker 1: I mean you're allowed to sit Aaron Rodgers on the

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Speaker 1: bench for three years and grow. You couldn't do that

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Speaker 1: if you had an owner. No way you could have

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Speaker 1: a first round quarterback and not rush him onto the field.

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Speaker 1: The owner would be harping every year. There's no way

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Speaker 1: you could have Jordan Love sit for three years as

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Speaker 1: Aaron was getting prickly and high maintenance and passive, aggressive,

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Speaker 1: and owner would have stepped in and said, ship him,

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Speaker 1: let's play the kid. Just why do you think Green Bay,

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Speaker 1: more than any NFL franchise, can keep using this formula

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Speaker 1: drafting you know, high end quarterbacks first round and not

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Speaker 1: playing him for three years. Could not do that even

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Speaker 1: with a good owner. You couldn't do it, there'd be

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Speaker 1: too much pressure. I mean, I think you'd be surprised

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Speaker 1: how often owners listen to sports talk and listen to fans.

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Speaker 1: Gms are too busy to listen, so are coaches. Players

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Speaker 1: don't really care. Billionaire owners who have people under them

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Speaker 1: want to get the temperature of fans. In the media,

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Speaker 1: and I mean, there's no question that New York media

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Speaker 1: is influenced. Woody Johnson influenced by the New York media

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Speaker 1: firing Robert Sala and nobody everybody was banging on him.

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Speaker 1: And if Woody Johnson's not listening, his kids are listening.

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Speaker 1: We've heard stories about Woody Johnson's kids having influence. So

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Speaker 1: I think it's a real advantage for green Bay going forward.

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Speaker 1: And I believe strongly in this, and I never used

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Speaker 1: to think it is that as the wealth and the

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Speaker 1: net worth has gone up ten times for owners, you

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Speaker 1: don't have to worry about Brian guden Kunst, Mark Murphy.

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Speaker 1: Who are they answering to the packers board And it's

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Speaker 1: you know, not a lot of power there. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm Washington green Bay, and I don't think it's a

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Speaker 1: coincidence that they have been able with the last two

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Speaker 1: star quarterbacks to just let them sit for three years.

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Speaker 1: No way in the world could you do that with

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Speaker 1: an owner, even a good owner. So tip of the

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Speaker 1: cap to the Packers. Well, it's the most wonderful time

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman. Cost to the favorites. I we'll have a

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Speaker 1: couple of college games in here as well, because of

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Speaker 1: I think some of the lines are work in our favor.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,

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Speaker 1: first rounds of the NCAA tournament. First rounds of the

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Speaker 1: tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect I suspect

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Speaker 1: going forward, the second round will be reseeded. That would

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Speaker 1: be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.

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Speaker 1: I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to

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Speaker 1: the tournament.

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Speaker 3: What say you, yeah, totally. I feel like two things

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Speaker 3: out of this one. The first point you just made

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Speaker 3: every year in March Madness, the first round has you know,

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Speaker 3: sixteen fourteen blowouts and two great games, and then like

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Speaker 3: but everyone remembers the great games. The argument will expand

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Speaker 3: the field, and then all of a sudden you're gonna

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Speaker 3: span the field and going to be a MAC team

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Speaker 3: that ends up be upsetting a Big ten team at

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Speaker 3: twelve to five scenario. You're going to have that in

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Speaker 3: college football one day. I don't worry about it. Also, two,

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Speaker 3: you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after SMU

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Speaker 3: was getting it handed to them by Penn State. I

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Speaker 3: was in a tech chain with a bunch of IU

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Speaker 3: buddies right and I was saying, you can guarantee right

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Speaker 3: now next year over correction for SEC and strength of schedule,

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Speaker 3: you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two Big ten

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Speaker 3: teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get

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Speaker 3: Clemson out of the ACC. You'll get who Cares out

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Speaker 3: of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State, right

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Speaker 3: because you won't get the at large team. You won't

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Speaker 3: get the third Big Ten team because now the committee

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Speaker 3: is too scared because of all these blowouts.

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Speaker 4: So you're now you're gonna get just.

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Speaker 3: The SEC and when those teams are blown out in

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Speaker 3: the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,

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Speaker 3: We're just gonna let everybody in and hopefully we get

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Speaker 3: some upsets sometime down the road.

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Speaker 1: That's my take, all right, So we'll have some college

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Speaker 1: football picks. We'll start with the NFL Broncos plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half head coach Sean Payton with extra time.

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Speaker 1: They played on Thursday. Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think

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Speaker 1: people are overreacting to just how good Joe Burrow is.

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Speaker 1: They can't stop people offensive coach extra time. Listen, they

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Speaker 1: outplayed the Chargers for the first half, and you know,

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Speaker 1: then Justin Herbert just did what great quarterbacks do. He

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Speaker 1: took the game over. This one jumped out to me

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Speaker 1: as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half sharper square.

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Speaker 3: So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 3: The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and

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Speaker 3: make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going

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Speaker 3: to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and

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Speaker 3: throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad

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Speaker 3: that he had no choice but to look like someone

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Speaker 3: who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of

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Speaker 3: holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants

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Speaker 3: to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it

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Speaker 3: to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.

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Speaker 3: I would want to do that too, So it's not

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Speaker 3: entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will

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Speaker 3: get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos

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Speaker 3: have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they

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Speaker 3: don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost

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Speaker 3: got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad

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Speaker 3: the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some

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Speaker 3: stats about bow Knicks that should make you feel more

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Speaker 3: comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a

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Speaker 3: half bow nicks against bad defenses, so defense is below

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Speaker 3: the fifty percent rashold the cross a variety of metrics

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Speaker 3: in the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven

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Speaker 3: or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty nine

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Speaker 3: points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two interceptions. The Broncos are

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Speaker 3: ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the

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Speaker 3: board in all DVA metrics, like it's over inflation on

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Speaker 3: the Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe

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Speaker 3: Burrow looking like a superhero.

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Speaker 1: Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't

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Speaker 1: like to bet, I don't like debt bad teams. But

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Speaker 1: the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league this year,

404
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Speaker 1: a standalone Monday night football game didn't score and it

405
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Speaker 1: almost looked like they quit. Now they're at home getting

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Speaker 1: a point against the horrible Raiders team sharper square.

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Speaker 4: I don't even know what to say, Colin.

408
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Speaker 3: In all the years we've been doing this, I will

409
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Speaker 3: come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or here,

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Speaker 3: and try to get you'd have bet the ugliest team

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Speaker 3: in the worst game, and you're like, no, not betting

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Speaker 3: a game. I don't want to watch not betting a

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Speaker 3: bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before we

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Speaker 3: came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,

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Speaker 3: what game am I going to get him to bet

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Speaker 3: that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was

417
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Speaker 3: the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the

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Speaker 3: fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're

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Speaker 3: betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got

420
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Speaker 3: blown out in prime time humiliated Historically, Historically, you bet

421
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Speaker 3: that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players,

422
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Speaker 3: it doesn't matter who their quarterback is, they're at home,

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Speaker 3: they're as as a dog. They just got blown out.

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Speaker 3: Every sort of trend says you play that team. On

425
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 3: the other side, the Raiders. Look, they beat up on

426
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 3: the Jags, but let's not be fooled. They had a

427
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 3: ten game losing streak and the Jags kept turning the

428
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet

429
00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: on the Raiders as road favorites in this. But give

430
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 3: me the Saints. Now, I gotta scramble and think of

431
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: what my other game I'm going to try to get

432
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: you to bed is well.

433
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 1: I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the

434
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was

435
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 1: a hero at the end, but he just tried to

436
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: give that thing away early. I think Michael Penix is

437
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: really good. I think they have a good offensive line

438
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 1: will hold the Commander's pass rush off. Four points is

439
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: a lot. I do not. I think the Falcons are

440
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: gonna be competitive. Listen, They're playing for a division title,

441
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: all right. This is a big game for them. So

442
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 1: this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't

443
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,360
Speaker 1: going to get home field advantage. The Falcons can win

444
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It

445
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: just seems to me, again it wasn't that they just

446
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: beat the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy.

447
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 1: Greg Cosell talked about it this week. This kid has

448
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: an arm I don't care if it's windy. I like

449
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 1: the Falcons plus four sharper square totally sharp.

450
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 3: Wise, guys, this down from four and a half to four.

451
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and a

452
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 3: half or lower. By the game. A lot of the

453
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: reasons you just indicated, Michael Penix had a lot of

454
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters don't forget.

455
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: The draft has become a huge betting event. Professional betters

456
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 3: are digging into game film from college the same way

457
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: they're digging into game film on a week to week

458
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 3: basis now because there's a money making opportunity. There's a market,

459
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 3: right Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar

460
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 3: from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Nicks, not that

461
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 3: dissimilar from Caleb Williams.

462
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 4: A ton of film on the guy.

463
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 3: He played a lot of college football, and some of

464
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 3: the reasons why these guys who are coming in and

465
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 3: having successes because they played so many games. We saw

466
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 3: how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw

467
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: like I think his ball is so pretty. And also

468
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 3: I don't think in a primetime game he is someone

469
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 3: who would be by the lights the way other rookies might.

470
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 3: He's played in massive games. Talk about college football National Championship.

471
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: That's a big game. I don't care if it's in

472
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: college like that has huge steaks, So he's been in spots.

473
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 4: He's older. I like it too.

474
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The

475
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 1: Bills slip walked sleepwalk through their win over New England.

476
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: So you get those when you're a dominant team. The

477
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now

478
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.

479
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last

480
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a

481
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 1: significantly better team. Jetsro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson

482
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 1: is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.

483
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: I think Buffalo also watch the Ravens and the Chiefs

484
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: flex and play brilliantly. His favorites, there's a separation. You know,

485
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take Buffalo minus

486
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: eight and a half off all horrible winning performance Sharper square.

487
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 4: So it's a little square.

488
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 3: The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.

489
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 3: I can't fault you if you want to do this.

490
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 3: Everything you just said is are all the reasons why

491
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 3: I was on the Bills last week.

492
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 4: I thought they'd want to flex.

493
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 3: I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing

494
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 3: five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back

495
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 3: in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.

496
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 3: It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was

497
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 3: throwing accurately.

498
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 4: Obviously different scenario. I lean into the Bills again. To

499
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 4: be honest, I.

500
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 3: Feel like everything you just said about the Jets is true,

501
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 3: which is why I would want to back the Bills.

502
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers had been healthy for the past three weeks.

503
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 3: He's now got a minor MCL issue on his knee.

504
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 3: This team is a train wreck. I was all over

505
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: the Jets last week. Whise guys were in the Jets

506
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: last week. You cannot count in the Jets because the

507
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: decision making of jeff Elbrick is so bad. He does

508
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: not seem to understand the basic constructs of when to

509
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: go four and fourth down, situational play clock management. If

510
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 3: the Jets kick a field goal, I'm fourth and four

511
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: from the Rams twelve yard line. Last week, they're up

512
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 3: twelve to six, and that's the ballgame. Like the Rams

513
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 3: were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went fourth and

514
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 3: fourth downs and that's basically when the Rams won the game.

515
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 3: So it's hard to bet on the Jets because jeff

516
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 3: Elbrick is just so bad.

517
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: At this.

518
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: One more NFL game. This line's moved back and forth.

519
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 1: Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the Bucks.

520
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: Tampa's the better team, but all make the argument in

521
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 1: the last month. Bryce Young is playing like a number

522
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 1: one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like a number

523
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: two pick. The Panthers can move the ball, They've got

524
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: a good coach, they can move the ball. Tampa's dinged up.

525
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: I think they'll win, but division game a hot quarterback,

526
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: it kind of feels like an easy one.

527
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 3: Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.

528
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and

529
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 3: a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at

530
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 3: seven and a half because money has been coming under

531
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 3: the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,

532
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 3: at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You

533
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: want to get the hook off of that key number.

534
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 3: A lot of games to end on seven. That's when

535
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: we talk about key numbers, three, seven, those are the

536
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 3: biggest ones. What's interesting about this game is a month

537
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 3: ago they played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six

538
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 3: and a half point favorite on the road, one in

539
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: overtime because Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal

540
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 3: range for the Bucks. Right, So now you take this

541
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 3: game to Tampa. Tampa is only a point and a

542
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 3: half better. When the line came out, went from six

543
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: and a half to eight. Right, Normally home field is

544
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 3: three points. What that's telling you is two things. One,

545
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers. They started off one

546
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: and seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional

547
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 3: betters had been betting, betting betting the Panthers. I'm sure

548
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: listeners remember early in the year. I was all over

549
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,959
Speaker 3: the Panthers. Bryce Young two point zero is everything you

550
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 3: just said. He's rolling out of the pocket using his legs,

551
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 3: incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits.

552
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: He's been great. He's been a really good quarterback, much

553
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 3: better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said, so, bookmakers have

554
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: adjusted to that. To me, eight was still a little

555
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp. Take the Panthers

556
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 3: a college football line.

557
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: It jumps out to me. I don't believe you can

558
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: win a national championship with a bad defense. That's why

559
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: I think Texas and Ohio State probably play for the Natty,

560
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: and I do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at

561
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: least in play to play for the National Championship. Oregon's

562
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: defense is bad. Boise State ran on it, Ohio State

563
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 1: did whatever they wanted on it. Penn State did whatever

564
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 1: they wanted against the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the

565
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee game because it was in Columbus, but Ohio State

566
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: has played in the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not

567
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: a factor. I said before the season, Oregon's gonna beat

568
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in

569
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: the rematch. It's under a field goal, I'd take the

570
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 1: Buckeye sharper square.

571
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 4: Yeah.

572
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 3: Look, that's the sharp side right now, right and that's

573
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 3: where the money is. And when you see money and

574
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 3: sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually

575
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 3: get betting percentages and money percentages. Money right now is

576
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,

577
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 3: which locks to Michigan, lost to Oregon, has had a

578
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 3: lot of drama questions about Ryan Day, the fact they

579
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 3: beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been

580
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a

581
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 3: lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,

582
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: So that's the way the money has been going in

583
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: this game. Look, it's fascinating. It's rare you're going to

584
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 3: get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team

585
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 3: to be the favorite over the number one ranked team.

586
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 3: But that's the spot we're in because of everything you

587
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: just said.

588
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: All right, there's a game I want you to kind

589
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 1: of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both

590
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The

591
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,

592
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,

593
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: so from time to time the Rams can feel like

594
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: a road team at home. This won't be one of

595
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.

596
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're

597
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 1: better than the line. That Jets game was built for

598
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and

599
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 1: they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's

600
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 1: six to six and a half. I have to bet

601
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 1: the Rams. I know it's divisional Sharper square. If I

602
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:34,919
Speaker 1: like the Rams.

603
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 3: Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But

604
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 3: this is sort of the nuance of the betting business

605
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 3: is getting the best of the number. This game on

606
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 3: Sunday Night opened Rams at minus four. So I'll do

607
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 3: the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night

608
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 3: on the Volume podcast network.

609
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 4: We'll do it go on air at seven thirty. We'll

610
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 4: do it live.

611
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 3: We're off air before the Sunday Night GEME. The timing

612
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 3: is relevant here because we will preview the games that

613
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 3: we like the most first glance, you know, gut instinct,

614
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 3: not having done any research for the following week. This

615
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 3: game stood out immediately we started talking about the Rams

616
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 3: minus four. Why is this number solo? The Rams just

617
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: got out of a trap game against the Jets and

618
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 3: they won. The week before, they got lucky, the Niners

619
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 3: dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners in a monsoon.

620
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 3: Now they're going home, chance to clinch the division against

621
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 3: a team that is down. James Connor injured. We saw

622
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 3: him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured. Not a

623
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 3: very good defense. A coach who doesn't know how to

624
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 3: keep his team up yet. The way they say Sean

625
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 3: McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys

626
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,879
Speaker 3: against the Bucks. The number during that show went from

627
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 3: four to four and a half to five to five

628
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 3: and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a point and

629
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 3: a half. By Monday morning it was six. And so

630
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 3: when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet

631
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 3: the Rams now, because the wise guy's been betting it

632
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 3: since it was at four, four and a half, five,

633
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 3: five and a half, and a little bit at six

634
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 3: until it got to six and a half. It got

635
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 3: to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.

636
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:29,879
Speaker 4: Again, the Rams are the right side, but if you.

637
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 3: Want to win as a better long term then you

638
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 3: have to have enough discipline to choose the best of

639
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 3: the number and then walk away. If you don't feel

640
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,959
Speaker 3: like you're getting it. You could still bet the Rams

641
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 3: at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,

642
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 3: but it's not going to be a sharp side at

643
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 3: six and a half.

644
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 1: All right, I gotta tell you I've had a lousy

645
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: year betting, but so far I've got seven of eight

646
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 1: division winners. I picked a surprise playoff team every year.

647
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 1: It was the Washington Commanders team that will double the

648
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: Vegas win total. It was the Denver Broncos. I said

649
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: this on the air today on TV on FS one.

650
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,439
Speaker 1: There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,

651
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: but the years fly by, and I feel like with

652
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the

653
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,479
Speaker 1: course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had

654
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs

655
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,

656
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying

657
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 1: to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,

658
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,879
Speaker 1: but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said

659
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 1: to you, give me your width and the one you'll

660
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 1: plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.

661
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 3: Oh it's it's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers

662
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,240
Speaker 3: just because I loved him. I just thought this team,

663
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 3: this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,

664
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 3: I just thought they were going to be much much better.

665
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,279
Speaker 3: It ended up being a w because they started off

666
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 3: so badly and I lost so much on them early

667
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 3: in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that

668
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,919
Speaker 3: they got better, and so I'm glad about that.

669
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 4: To me, the.

670
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 3: One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love

671
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 3: Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.

672
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 3: I think he's a football savant and I think that

673
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 3: what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason

674
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 3: why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the

675
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 3: talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he

676
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 3: knows clock management so well. What he did at the

677
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 3: end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a

678
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 3: brilliant coach, was a masterclass.

679
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: Right.

680
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 4: He takes the time out so they have to punt.

681
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 3: The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal

682
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 3: file that leads to the free kick, that leads to

683
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 3: the Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.

684
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 3: That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what

685
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 3: you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not

686
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 3: seeing from Jared Mao, like you see the difference there.

687
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because

688
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 3: I thought they'd be good this year and I played

689
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 3: it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you

690
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 3: that the bet that I always love the most, which

691
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 3: I'm still in play for. I always do sort of

692
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 3: a round robin on the teams that are at twelve

693
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 3: to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and

694
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 3: I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you

695
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 3: can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty

696
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 3: five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Lions,

697
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 3: you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the

698
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 3: Ravens and the Lions. You bet the Ravens and the Eagles,

699
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 3: and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,

700
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals,

701
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 3: I'm alive with that if they make the playoffs. So

702
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 3: I always like that bet and feel good now that

703
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of

704
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 3: the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning

705
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,

706
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,800
Speaker 3: and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.

707
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 1: Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're

708
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins

709
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: should play Gus edwards out which side of a leen?

710
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 3: Oh, I totally lean Chargers, And this is a walking

711
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 3: into a hornet's nest. Like in any other year you

712
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 3: mentioned the favorites. Right, in any other year, we're playing

713
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 3: the Patriots. Here, we're playing a team that's out of

714
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 3: it at home more than a field goal underdog, a

715
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 3: team traveling that's fighting to make the playoffs. Every trend

716
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: will tell you against the spread. In this scenario, the

717
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 3: underdog is the right play. But for what we just

718
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 3: talked about, I think Harbaugh's a brilliant coach. I think

719
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 3: that teams are making more aggressive decisions so they're scoring

720
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 3: more points. I think that the fact that the most

721
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 3: teams are starting field position at the thirty yard line

722
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 3: is getting them closer to scoring in the other side

723
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 3: of the field and making them more comfortable on fourth

724
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 3: and four from the forty going forward instead of kicking

725
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 3: a field goal.

726
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 4: And so I think that's one of the reasons why.

727
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 3: We're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and favorites

728
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 3: win is there's more opportunity for them to score at

729
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 3: a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,

730
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 3: like betters are not having a great year. You know,

731
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 3: Favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,

732
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 3: just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since

733
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 3: two thy thirteen, teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.

734
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 3: So we talk about fading the public. We want to

735
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:03,240
Speaker 3: be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting

736
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 3: over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent

737
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 3: this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent

738
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 3: against the spread this year. That'll be the third least

739
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,

740
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 3: people like me, I want to fade the public. I

741
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 3: want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.

742
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 3: It's been a rough go of it.

743
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 1: Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites.

744
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 4: Good luck, Buddy, good luck to all of us.

745
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 1: The volume