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Speaker 1: All right, Chad Milman is going to stop on By
Speaker 1: in about ten minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday
Speaker 1: Night Football twenty six eighteen. Philadelphia played like crap in
Speaker 1: the first half and came back to win. Let's be
Speaker 1: honest behind Saquon Barkley this. You know, Philadelphia is such
Speaker 1: a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look
Speaker 1: like You're getting into week ten, week eleven, it's a
Speaker 1: short week. Philadelphia looked tired. Philadelphia look beat up. They
Speaker 1: look tired. You know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical.
Speaker 1: I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington,
Speaker 1: couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know,
Speaker 1: it wasn't until the last final drives when you know
Speaker 1: they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to
Speaker 1: be a better football team than that. Eagles are six
Speaker 1: and zero when Saquon Barkley rushes for one hundred plus yards,
Speaker 1: so he's completely changed the offense Jalen Hurts, and there
Speaker 1: were times tonight in the first half when Jalen Hurts
Speaker 1: missed AJ Brown badly. I'm like a twelve fifteen yard out,
Speaker 1: and you know, he's just the savior of the offense.
Speaker 1: I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL
Speaker 1: loves the trade to their rivals. It's sort of a
Speaker 1: no no, you know, to me, as long as you're
Speaker 1: not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The
Speaker 1: New York Giants allowed and it was the most predictable
Speaker 1: thing in the world. Saquon Barkley, their best player by
Speaker 1: a lot, to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if
Speaker 1: the Giants are going to clean house. But that's the
Speaker 1: kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barkley's a
Speaker 1: remarkable player, you know. You know, it's really cracks me up.
Speaker 1: The media overreacts to everything, and a lot of it
Speaker 1: is the media is much younger than it used to be.
Speaker 1: Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have
Speaker 1: the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to
Speaker 1: get young and cheap in the media. So a lot
Speaker 1: of times the media is thirty one years old, twenty
Speaker 1: eight years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's
Speaker 1: never happened before. But that's their life. You know, I've
Speaker 1: been doing this so long now, and I'm believing that's
Speaker 1: not a humble brag, you know, it's it's sometimes I
Speaker 1: look at the media and I think, guys, this is
Speaker 1: it's everything cyclical. I mean virtually politics is cyclical. Everything
Speaker 1: is cyclical. Tech, the industry is not very old, but
Speaker 1: it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts
Speaker 1: to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was
Speaker 1: it last year the off season, there was this big
Speaker 1: complaint that running backs are not getting paid, and it's like,
Speaker 1: take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You
Speaker 1: tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't
Speaker 1: get paid unless you're the la rams. They pay theirs.
Speaker 1: Running Backs are always going to be valuable because a
Speaker 1: running back is essential for a young quarterback. For instance,
Speaker 1: all quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jalen Hurts is not
Speaker 1: a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better the good
Speaker 1: running back. Well, quarterbacks the most essential piece in the league. Secondly,
Speaker 1: running backs, whether gets harsh, whether it gets colder, it
Speaker 1: gets windier. November December, January, running games become more essential.
Speaker 1: Not to mention, you know, our running back is such
Speaker 1: a great piece, not just not just to set the
Speaker 1: tempo of a team, but when you lead, and good
Speaker 1: teams lead, and so a lot of times are running
Speaker 1: back eats up the clock. So good teams are always
Speaker 1: going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia
Speaker 1: is a good team. Excellent running back Isaah pa Checo
Speaker 1: when he comes back, will be so valuable to the
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has
Speaker 1: changed everything. Dereck Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look
Speaker 1: at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 1: Let Joe Mixon go. Bengals would die for a twelve
Speaker 1: play drive nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their
Speaker 1: awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two
Speaker 1: excellent running backs. So this idea that running backs were
Speaker 1: going to you know, disappear into the ether. The reports
Speaker 1: I said this on FS one I set up multiple
Speaker 1: times take a deep breath. There was always going to
Speaker 1: be a market for Austin Eckler. You know, Washington's like, hey,
Speaker 1: we need you. You don't have to get thirty carries,
Speaker 1: but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs
Speaker 1: in the league. And Saquon Barkley is so valuable. This
Speaker 1: is a team that's good. They often play with the league,
Speaker 1: and he was like a closer tonight. He was just
Speaker 1: so dependable late in the football game. I will say,
Speaker 1: if these are two of the best teams in the NFC,
Speaker 1: then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But
Speaker 1: I also think Jalen Hurts allows Saquon Barkley, excuse me,
Speaker 1: allows Jalen Hurts to throw less in a six game
Speaker 1: winning streak. He's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hurts
Speaker 1: can throw twenty two times. He didn't have to throw
Speaker 1: thirty four times. So it frustrates me sometimes. And I
Speaker 1: see this in the political media. You know, to the
Speaker 1: Trump election. It's listen, the election was decided by a
Speaker 1: million six votes or something like that in the country
Speaker 1: of three hundred and fifty million people. And you can
Speaker 1: see from the appointees, you know, Trump Trump is almost
Speaker 1: going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president.
Speaker 1: You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team.
Speaker 1: You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House,
Speaker 1: things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever.
Speaker 1: So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think,
Speaker 1: you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember it was
Speaker 1: the small ball league and everybody got small, and then
Speaker 1: here comes Jokis and here comes Giannis, and you know,
Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big, let's
Speaker 1: get Poor Zingis. And now you know, with the emergence
Speaker 1: of some of these young stars like a Wemby, you
Speaker 1: just have to have size. You're just in the NBA,
Speaker 1: you're just not gonna win a championship. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Julius Randalls Sea, We'll take Karl Anthony Towns. We need
Speaker 1: more size if we want to match up with Jiannis,
Speaker 1: Embiid and Poor Zingis in the East. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: amazing how many true big men. Anthony Davis is the
Speaker 1: best player in the Lakers, Jannis on Milwaukee, Jokic, Wemby,
Speaker 1: There's all sorts of good players. Check Holmgren such a
Speaker 1: good player for Okay, so he's not as good as SGA,
Speaker 1: but a great player. So I mean one team Minnesota,
Speaker 1: I mean it has been kind of reboot as a
Speaker 1: franchise before Karl Anthony town got traded because they went
Speaker 1: and got Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. They went
Speaker 1: and got two centers. Everything, everything over time either re emerges, emerges, regresses.
Speaker 1: To the mean, take a deep breath, It's all going
Speaker 1: to be okay, you know. I also think what's happening
Speaker 1: last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs. And I
Speaker 1: thought tonight when Washington I couldn't you couldn't figure the
Speaker 1: first half out. I mean you look at the stats.
Speaker 1: Washington never had the football. They had the football eleven
Speaker 1: minutes and they led, and it was one of these
Speaker 1: football games You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia so much better, Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: Minnesota last weekend? Minnesota was so much better San Francisco
Speaker 1: and Tampa last week and go to the box score
Speaker 1: in that game. So what you're finding is a lot
Speaker 1: of these superior football teams. They're injured, they're beat up,
Speaker 1: they're playing some backups, they're tired. You know, a lot
Speaker 1: of the better football teams in the NFL, they have
Speaker 1: older players, players just out of their prime. Week ten,
Speaker 1: week eleven, week twelve. Listen. I like Jayden Daniels, and
Speaker 1: let's talk about this, but he's hit a bit of
Speaker 1: a rookie wall. And last year C. J. Stroud had
Speaker 1: a three game stretch and we all like him where
Speaker 1: he completed fifty seven percent of his throws. So Jaden
Speaker 1: Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson field. Nobody
Speaker 1: has any film, nobody has in the NFL film. I mean,
Speaker 1: you're just kind of okay. You go back and look
Speaker 1: at the LSU film. I mean, you don't you don't
Speaker 1: know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels brand new. So you get four five weeks
Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, then you know, then they lose
Speaker 1: to a Baltimore and I played Pittsburgh a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago and they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now
Speaker 1: they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams Washington I
Speaker 1: had as a wildcard team coming into the season. Some
Speaker 1: teams it takes a while to figure them out. And
Speaker 1: I think more than any team in the NFL. That's Washington.
Speaker 1: They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it. Kingsbury's
Speaker 1: got a new offense and a new quarterback, and everybody's
Speaker 1: kind of just you just you need more film, and
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden you kind of figure out
Speaker 1: what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line,
Speaker 1: you know, into the season. Going into the season, we
Speaker 1: all said about the Commanders. Don't know if I like
Speaker 1: the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early,
Speaker 1: some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking up seven
Speaker 1: yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they
Speaker 1: really don't have good enough. You know. I like their
Speaker 1: running backs, but I mean Terry McLaurin in the first
Speaker 1: half didn't even see a target, you know. So people
Speaker 1: take Terry McLaurin out, and it's a pretty weak wide
Speaker 1: receiving crew and it's a pretty average offensive line. And
Speaker 1: now everybody's got all the tape, and so I think
Speaker 1: he's going to be I think I think Jayden Daniels
Speaker 1: has been a home run or you know, Rookie of
Speaker 1: the Year all that stuff. But this is the reality.
Speaker 1: C J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had
Speaker 1: some games where you know, the game speeds up. The
Speaker 1: other thing is what happens is like a young quarterback
Speaker 1: maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies you know,
Speaker 1: more on a running back, and then people start getting
Speaker 1: dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven, and
Speaker 1: now you know Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components
Speaker 1: he needs, and so you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has
Speaker 1: certain things He's not gonna run, certain plays, certain sets,
Speaker 1: so you know on insert day, you know, and this
Speaker 1: is a short week anyway, you know, you're just you're
Speaker 1: limited on what you have. And I think that's what
Speaker 1: you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback and
Speaker 1: it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps.
Speaker 1: You No, Bowe Nicks started slowly, but he has an
Speaker 1: offensive head coach and one of the great ones in
Speaker 1: Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the
Speaker 1: element of surprise, what the heck is Jaden Daniels and
Speaker 1: you're guessing and he's so electric and so athletic. He
Speaker 1: was just he was picking up yards with his feet.
Speaker 1: Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar in
Speaker 1: the NFC and now we're seeing people have a track.
Speaker 1: Doesn't mean it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: I mean Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he
Speaker 1: would have trouble in some division games as teams in
Speaker 1: his division like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late
Speaker 1: week eleven, he beats the Chargers, and he has to
Speaker 1: face him again in the playoffs and he loses the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the
Speaker 1: Chargers at the time, and he said, you know you
Speaker 1: first time you face him, Yeah, I mean you just don't.
Speaker 1: Because you can watch all the film you want, you
Speaker 1: have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is,
Speaker 1: how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then
Speaker 1: the second time you face him, Okay, we're going to
Speaker 1: take away this, that's his fastball. We're taking away that
Speaker 1: force him to go to his second and his third receiver.
Speaker 1: And then you he's still tough to beat. But you
Speaker 1: can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's had a great record with against
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin. They always have a good defense.
Speaker 1: They see him multiple times a year, they know all
Speaker 1: the tricks, and so I think Jayden Daniels will be
Speaker 1: a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him
Speaker 1: a lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well run, good
Speaker 1: pieces that sees him twice a year, you know he
Speaker 1: may have through the years, he may have trouble with
Speaker 1: the Eagles, but still love him. It's a pretty good
Speaker 1: quarterback class. A few years ago we had the class
Speaker 1: with Jalen Hurts and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
Speaker 1: This quarterback class, JJ McCarthy looked really really good in
Speaker 1: the preseason. Preseason, but he looked really good. And Bo
Speaker 1: Nicks looks good, and Jayden Daniels looks good. And I
Speaker 1: do believe Kayleb Williams will eventually get it right or
Speaker 1: closer to what he's going to be. He had a
Speaker 1: good three game stretcher earlier this season. Kayleb Williams was
Speaker 1: seventy four percent completion percentage three games. But again, now
Speaker 1: people are getting taped. Now they see what Caleb can't do.
Speaker 1: Then all of a sudden you have a wide receiver
Speaker 1: that stinged up, just steps, just a process. Jaden's going
Speaker 1: to be great. I thought Philadelphia and I they just
Speaker 1: looked they were a little tired, little beat up, but
Speaker 1: they came back to be the inferior roster twenty six
Speaker 1: to eighteen. Nick Ceriani, I still cannot get over. I
Speaker 1: don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year.
Speaker 1: Offensive coach Sakwon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Davonte Smith,
Speaker 1: good old line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia
Speaker 1: is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because
Speaker 1: this game put me to sleep, but they're the only
Speaker 1: franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in
Speaker 1: love with the coach. And yet I think it's a
Speaker 1: top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas
Speaker 1: City feels so stable, Baltimore feels so stable, Philadelphia is
Speaker 1: a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators
Speaker 1: have they had. I mean they're on their third offensive
Speaker 1: coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches,
Speaker 1: a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see
Speaker 1: them like the New York Jets the New York Giants.
Speaker 1: As a reactionary, I tend to think they're proactive, smart owner,
Speaker 1: smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly, but
Speaker 1: at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a
Speaker 1: winning record. But you know what we found out in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. Chip's more of a college guy than a
Speaker 1: pro guy. So they knew something in the building that
Speaker 1: we didn't. Even though they went ten and six ten
Speaker 1: and six first two years with pretty average quarterback play,
Speaker 1: they knew something. They saw something Carson Wentz. They signed
Speaker 1: him to a big deal, and then they know they
Speaker 1: kind of moved off him, and you're thinking, what are
Speaker 1: you doing here? You just sign them to do a
Speaker 1: big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they
Speaker 1: know things in the building. They keep it to themselves,
Speaker 1: and they react proactively, very strongly. And so Philadelphia once again,
Speaker 1: I mean, this offense with Jalen Hurts has been one
Speaker 1: of two things, turnover prone and awful, or when Nick
Speaker 1: Sirianni moves back and lets his oc run things excellent.
Speaker 1: There's nothing in between. It's either been you know, like
Speaker 1: right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a
Speaker 1: great old line at Saquon Barkley six and zero are
Speaker 1: the Eagles when Saquon rushes for one hundred or more
Speaker 1: completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's
Speaker 1: some interesting things tonight Jake Paul, Mike Tyson. Saturday, John
Speaker 1: Jones UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get
Speaker 1: a fight on a Friday and a Saturday into a
Speaker 1: big football weekend excellent. Chad Melman's next All right, there's
Speaker 1: never been a night quite like this. On Friday, November fifteenth,
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Speaker 1: Also that night, historic rematch between the Brave Bomb Katie
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Speaker 3: Though.
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Speaker 1: beginning November twelfth, only on Netflix. Time for another edition
Speaker 1: of Sharp or Square. He's a host at the Action Network.
Speaker 1: All of our odds are always provided by Draftings Sportsbook.
Speaker 1: All right, Chad Melman, there are certain games I just
Speaker 1: want to watch and not bet. But I would take
Speaker 1: the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens. The number is
Speaker 1: three and a half. It's one of the bets of
Speaker 1: the weekend. At three, I still think I take it.
Speaker 1: I think George Pickens and Mike Williams attack the Ravens weakness.
Speaker 1: Baltimore is one of those teams and this is rare.
Speaker 1: With a great team, they can outplay you and then
Speaker 1: get beat by The Raiders, can get beat by inferior teams.
Speaker 1: They're so bad on the back end. And I think
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Light Russell's not what's what he was was, But in
Speaker 1: this rivalry even a field goal. I'm taking the point
Speaker 1: Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a
Speaker 3: couple of different directions. Won the matchup the wise guy
Speaker 3: seed exactly the way you do. We've been watching it
Speaker 3: all year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in
Speaker 3: the back door, right. We saw it with the Commanders,
Speaker 3: they were down a significant amount, they came back, they
Speaker 3: came back and they were able to cover that game.
Speaker 3: We saw it with the Bengals who were up so
Speaker 3: much because they were able to attack the back end
Speaker 3: of the Ravens defense. And don't forget, no Kyle Humphrey
Speaker 3: in this game. Kyle Humphrey is one of their, if
Speaker 3: not their best defender, and now that secondary is going
Speaker 3: to be even worse. The overarching theme here and this
Speaker 3: is the reason why professionals are on it. Don't forget
Speaker 3: this game opened at three and a half, it is
Speaker 3: settled at three. The wise guys are still on it.
Speaker 3: But look in the regular season, in this game, in
Speaker 3: this matchup the past twenty years, when the line is
Speaker 3: three or more, the underdog twenty two four and three,
Speaker 3: underdog fifteen to two and one. Since two thousand and
Speaker 3: fifteen in the regular season, when Mike Tomlin fases John Harbaugh,
Speaker 3: the underdog in this matchup twenty three, six and three,
Speaker 3: and then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable
Speaker 3: coach as an underdog in the past twenty years in
Speaker 3: the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh when he's
Speaker 3: a favorite is not nearly as good as when he's
Speaker 3: a dog in this matchup. So there is a reason,
Speaker 3: and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers
Speaker 3: at plus three. You're sure.
Speaker 1: You know I like the number four and five. So
Speaker 1: Greg Cosell said something on my show today that had
Speaker 1: influence over me. This was going to be a stay
Speaker 1: away game. But the Packers offensive coach off of by
Speaker 1: at Chicago and what Greg Cosell said, it's not a
Speaker 1: Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson,
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it.
Speaker 1: He is not able to see something, spot it, get
Speaker 1: the ball out quickly. Green Bay I think has its
Speaker 1: most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach.
Speaker 1: I think he's been a really nice fit for them.
Speaker 1: Under the radar, low Key really knows his side of
Speaker 1: the ball. It's five. I would take Green Bay. I
Speaker 1: know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization coach
Speaker 1: Jordan loves healthier sharper square.
Speaker 3: So the wise guys have been on the Bears in
Speaker 3: this game. It's moved from six to five and a
Speaker 3: half to now five in some places. I agree with
Speaker 3: you for what it's worth for me, this is a
Speaker 3: pass or it's the Packers. I think there's so much
Speaker 3: dysfunction with the Bears, and the reason why the wise
Speaker 3: guys are taking them right now is because they believe
Speaker 3: this is bottomed down right. It's gotten as bad as
Speaker 3: it can get. In the locker room, it can't get
Speaker 3: any worse. Whether you believe the players were responsible for
Speaker 3: getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen,
Speaker 3: Whether you believe that the system can now get a
Speaker 3: little bit less complex and easier for Kayleb Williams, whether
Speaker 3: you believe that they're getting two offensive linemen back, which
Speaker 3: they are and will make him feel more comfortable in
Speaker 3: the pocket. This team has been full of chaos, and
Speaker 3: so the wise guys are betting, literally that it cannot
Speaker 3: get any worse. In a division game against their rival
Speaker 3: at home. The flip side is entirely about what the
Speaker 3: Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic as a
Speaker 3: defense this year, a lot of interceptions. They cannot rush
Speaker 3: the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this
Speaker 3: is where Matt laflor has been a genius figure out
Speaker 3: how to best take advantage of what the Bears are
Speaker 3: bad at on defense. The Bears are not a very
Speaker 3: good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt Lafleor does with
Speaker 3: someone like Josh Jacobs when he knows he doesn't have
Speaker 3: Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get
Speaker 3: the running game in motion. He will likely do that
Speaker 3: against the Bears. Also, Matt lafleur seven and three when
Speaker 3: favored by four points or more. Over the past two decades,
Speaker 3: road favorites off of a buy covered a sixty percent clip.
Speaker 3: Road favorites of five and a half or more cover
Speaker 3: it a seventy percent clip. So there's lots of reasons to
Speaker 3: like the Packers here. The wise guys, I think the
Speaker 3: right side is the Bears.
Speaker 1: So Journey had a song years ago and one of
Speaker 1: the lyrics is I can't stop loving you, and I
Speaker 1: feel that's odds makers on the Jets. This is a
Speaker 1: bad test. How in God's name were they they favored
Speaker 1: at Arizona? It was never competitive, Colts getting over a
Speaker 1: field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired. I'm going to
Speaker 1: go to the sidelines. Not a smart move. It's not
Speaker 1: punishable by a month on the bench. He learned his
Speaker 1: lesson when he's healthy. He's kind of a fascinating player
Speaker 1: that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice
Speaker 1: that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback.
Speaker 1: He's a huge, tackle breaking tornado of activity. That's not
Speaker 1: a great quarterback. But I'm taking the points here all day.
Speaker 1: Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: It's a fifty to fifty game right now. And I
Speaker 3: agree with you. You think about Journey, I think that
Speaker 3: same way when I think about offensive lines who are really,
Speaker 3: really physical, and the Colts offensive line when it comes
Speaker 3: to run blocking is super physical in the NFL, and
Speaker 3: we saw this last week. I loved the Colts last
Speaker 3: week against the Bills at home, and if not from
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco and three turnovers and if not for getting
Speaker 3: sacked when it's fourth and inches. I know, if not for,
Speaker 3: if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is they
Speaker 3: ran the ball on the Bills. They had more than
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty yards rushing and Jonathan Taylor went
Speaker 3: for more than one hundred and average five and a
Speaker 3: half yards per carry, so they were able to do
Speaker 3: exactly what they wanted to do against the Bills. The
Speaker 3: Jets defense from a rushing perspective is worse than the
Speaker 3: Bills rush defense, and the team overall is much worse
Speaker 3: than the Bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 3: Back to your point, this is a better opportunity for
Speaker 3: Shane Steichen to let everybody run with the ball and
Speaker 3: dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week against
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, they were afraid to tackle anybody. This is
Speaker 3: not a physical defense, and they have gotten so much
Speaker 3: worse since Robert Silo was fired. So the line moved
Speaker 3: down from four to three and a half, from actually
Speaker 3: from four and a half to four to three and
Speaker 3: a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts.
Speaker 3: It's come back a little bit on the on the Jets,
Speaker 3: and so now it's settled at for the majority of
Speaker 3: wise guys are with you and they will be in
Speaker 3: the Colts.
Speaker 1: Well. A Rams minus four and a half that key
Speaker 1: number of game at New England, so very rarely is
Speaker 1: have I ever seen a Sean McVay team out coached.
Speaker 1: It felt like they were out schemed early. It was
Speaker 1: like an I thought it was an embarrassing game for
Speaker 1: Sean McVay and it was hard to digest because the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: a poor pass rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four
Speaker 1: were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches
Speaker 1: and good quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy.
Speaker 1: That was not the Rams. They were playing very good.
Speaker 1: It's a short week. I think New England now are
Speaker 1: all buying to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now.
Speaker 1: Drake May is not Tua. He's not They don't have
Speaker 1: those weapons. They're not going to listen to. Rams brought
Speaker 1: some people and they got burned on third down because
Speaker 1: Tua is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallowed the
Speaker 1: four and a half here take the Ram sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's been square, and I got to tell you.
Speaker 3: We've talked about executive decisions before. I don't know why
Speaker 3: the wise guys are on the Patriots here. It doesn't
Speaker 3: make any sense to me at all. This is a
Speaker 3: bilo on the better team, sell high on the worst
Speaker 3: team situation. Why would you be betting the Patriots who
Speaker 3: are so high on life after beating up on the
Speaker 3: Bears on the road a franchise tying record nine sacks
Speaker 3: against Caleb Williams. And look, I watched that game obviously,
Speaker 3: the Rams and the Dolphins too. I looked at it
Speaker 3: a little differently. The Rams have five field goals. The
Speaker 3: Rams red zone this season has been atrocious, and to me,
Speaker 3: that was sort of the bottoming out right. Every time
Speaker 3: they got close, it was a sack, it was a
Speaker 3: botch snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake.
Speaker 3: And then there were a couple times defensively, you know,
Speaker 3: they had that third and twenty five that they gave up,
Speaker 3: and they gave up a penalty on that one too.
Speaker 3: They had another field goal, they made the field goal
Speaker 3: five yard illegal motion penalty, they moved back, and then
Speaker 3: all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So
Speaker 3: to me, it was just it was a game full
Speaker 3: of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team. You're
Speaker 3: getting the much better team in a bounce back spot
Speaker 3: with a relatively low number.
Speaker 1: So I like that.
Speaker 3: By the way, teams who have been favorites at home
Speaker 3: and lost and then our favorites the following week on
Speaker 3: the road about sixty percent the past twenty years against
Speaker 3: the spread. And by the way, Sean McVeigh short rest
Speaker 3: fourteen and six against the spread ten and one in
Speaker 3: his last eleven games with Matthew Stafford six and one
Speaker 3: short rest, Like, I don't understand the move here. It
Speaker 3: doesn't make any sense to me.
Speaker 1: So yeah, let's go with the Rams Kansas City plus
Speaker 1: two and a half at Buffalo. I think Buffalo is
Speaker 1: the most equipped they've ever been to beat Kansas City.
Speaker 1: But now Coleman's not playing and Amari Cooper's banned up
Speaker 1: and Kincaid might not play. You're not beating him at
Speaker 1: half strength because they're going to put you an uncomfortable
Speaker 1: third and longs and it's a and they're getting By
Speaker 1: the way, they're getting Pachecko back, so that that can
Speaker 1: be a difference maker for their run game, which has
Speaker 1: been pretty pedestrian Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out
Speaker 1: of the backfield, but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore.
Speaker 1: This feels like an obvious one chiefs plus the points,
Speaker 1: even though it's not three sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So what's interesting about this is on Sunday night,
Speaker 3: this line opened at chiefs plus one and it started
Speaker 3: skyrocketing higher. And Sunday nights Monday mornings, that's when the
Speaker 3: wise guys are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines.
Speaker 3: There are line moves in that first twenty four hour
Speaker 3: window that's professional money. And this line moved from Kansas
Speaker 3: City plus one, Kansas City plus one and a half,
Speaker 3: Kansas City plus two, Kansas City plus two and a half,
Speaker 3: and it made no sense. This is a little bit
Speaker 3: like the Steelers, where you know what the precedent is.
Speaker 3: You know, Mike Tomlin does this x percent amount of time.
Speaker 3: That is what we call in the betting business a
Speaker 3: plus EV plus expected value return on your investment. Right,
Speaker 3: so you just bet it. Like he might not love it,
Speaker 3: you might get burned on it four times out of ten,
Speaker 3: but six times out of ten you're going to win.
Speaker 3: The percentages. With Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a
Speaker 3: favorite of less than three are so much higher than
Speaker 3: anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's
Speaker 3: getting by with a little bit of voodoo this year.
Speaker 3: Maybe he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games they
Speaker 3: show a loss to the forty nine, Maybe they should
Speaker 3: have lost to the Broncos like there have been spots,
Speaker 3: But look, twelve one and one against the spread? Is
Speaker 3: Mahomes as an underdog? Okay? His only against the spread
Speaker 3: loss was against the Bills two years ago two and
Speaker 3: a half point underdogs They lost by four twenty five
Speaker 3: and ten straight up twenty six, eight and one in
Speaker 3: his career against the spread as a favorite of three
Speaker 3: or fewer points or as an underdog, like I'm with you,
Speaker 3: you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.
Speaker 3: If people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl
Speaker 3: where he was a two and a half point underdog.
Speaker 3: If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you
Speaker 3: want to be betting against him at the end of
Speaker 3: the game. Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No,
Speaker 3: nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari
Speaker 3: Cooper out, Kin Kaid if he does play is playing
Speaker 3: with the cast. They're a little banged up on the
Speaker 3: right side of their offensive, like there are reasons to
Speaker 3: be afraid to bet on the bills beyond Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3: So yes, this line has come down, by the way
Speaker 3: to answer the original question. So it's starting to become
Speaker 3: sharp to bet on the chiefs.
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Speaker 1: really is all right, the final one of my picks.
Speaker 1: So the Chargers are only minus one and a half
Speaker 1: and I looked at that number and thought, why that's
Speaker 1: a funky number. No, it's not the offense. I'm going
Speaker 1: to take the Bengals plus the points here here's why.
Speaker 1: So they played on Thursday. Now they get it. Not
Speaker 1: only do they get extra rest, they don't play till Monday.
Speaker 1: So it's a strange. It's really a lot of extra rest.
Speaker 1: As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback
Speaker 1: and an offensive coach, I think that time matters. The
Speaker 1: Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach. That
Speaker 1: extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach
Speaker 1: Taylor and Joe Burrow and they're already humming and the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Everybody loves the Chargers. They don't have a ton of
Speaker 1: downfield weapons. They have very few plus twenty yard plays.
Speaker 1: So there's a way they have to play to win
Speaker 1: long drives. Long drives are hard, penalties fumbles, It's hard
Speaker 1: to create nine to ten and eleven play drives, Bengals
Speaker 1: score quickly, they get freebies. I'm gonna take the points
Speaker 1: to the Bengals the rest sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's sharp this numbers move. It opened at two
Speaker 3: and a half last Sunday to move down to about
Speaker 3: got down to one actually, and then bounced up a
Speaker 3: little bit with some Charger moony at one and a half.
Speaker 3: But it's definitely the sharp side. I I I agree
Speaker 3: with you, like you want to be on the Bengal
Speaker 3: side here for the same reason you don't want to
Speaker 3: bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting
Speaker 3: against Joe Burrow, who lights out this year, who has
Speaker 3: an underdog is second only to Patrick Mahomes, and how
Speaker 3: well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks, you don't.
Speaker 3: The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor
Speaker 3: of the Chargers right now is because this has been
Speaker 3: a very strange gambling year. You know, to look Macro here,
Speaker 3: you as a businessman, as someone who has succeeded far
Speaker 3: beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks
Speaker 3: has been earning season for public traded companies right that
Speaker 3: includes sports betting operators, the two major sports betting operators
Speaker 3: both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year
Speaker 3: because of what they have defined as customer friendly outcomes,
Speaker 3: meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in
Speaker 3: reduce revenue because so many favorites are winning this year,
Speaker 3: so many more than expected, right And what that means
Speaker 3: is that teams like the Chargers have been over exceeding
Speaker 3: the expectation as favorites because they do exactly what you
Speaker 3: want them to do. They don't make high variant coaching
Speaker 3: decisions because Harbaught is very consistent. You know what he's
Speaker 3: going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're
Speaker 3: really disciplined, so they don't have this stupid penalties that
Speaker 3: a lot of other teams have having, and those things
Speaker 3: have been impacting the games in a much wider way
Speaker 3: than they have in previous years. So that's why people
Speaker 3: like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making
Speaker 3: people money. But the sharp side in this game are
Speaker 3: the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Always a game I want you to pick for me.
Speaker 1: I like Denver at home minus two and a half
Speaker 1: against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins not one hundred percent Pennix could play,
Speaker 1: and though he played it Indiana and Washington cold wet
Speaker 1: weather areas, it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a
Speaker 1: tremendous pass rush. I do worry that out playing Kansas
Speaker 1: City and losing the way they did is an emotional
Speaker 1: gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there.
Speaker 1: But Bonnicks and this Denver team, they know they're not
Speaker 1: a Hoist Trophy team, like they know they're going to
Speaker 1: lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a
Speaker 1: thin roster, and I think there's value in playing close
Speaker 1: and out playing the Super Bowl champs. I think they
Speaker 1: actually come out of that game thinking shit, out played Mahomes.
Speaker 1: I don't think this is a veteran team that really
Speaker 1: SAgs and thinks. You know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs
Speaker 1: again the following week, you like you really have a
Speaker 1: low energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here.
Speaker 1: Tell me why I'm right or wrong.
Speaker 3: Well, I actually cannot decide on this game. It's so
Speaker 3: interesting you bring it up because early in the week
Speaker 3: I loved Atlanta. Here I thought to myself, Atlanta really
Speaker 3: shouldn't have lost that game and against New Orleans, and
Speaker 3: you know, I love New Orleans. Last week I tried
Speaker 3: to get you to come along with me on New Orleans.
Speaker 3: You are not having it. You will not that game
Speaker 3: you want, you don't want to watch. You totally get it,
Speaker 3: respect the theory, but I felt like at the end
Speaker 3: of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the
Speaker 3: second half, the Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a
Speaker 3: field goal that could have tied the game with six
Speaker 3: minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now
Speaker 3: you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against
Speaker 3: the spread, great straight up coming off a loss. I
Speaker 3: really like the way the Falcons have been running the ball.
Speaker 3: Bijon has been a different level of player than he
Speaker 3: was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things
Speaker 3: that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield,
Speaker 3: his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to
Speaker 3: run people over. I then thought about, Okay, two and
Speaker 3: a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're
Speaker 3: overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to and what they
Speaker 3: did against the Chiefs, And I like you, I felt
Speaker 3: like the chief The Broncos will walk away that of
Speaker 3: that game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened.
Speaker 3: I would not be crustified with them at all. I'd
Speaker 3: be going into a thinking, Wow, we can hang like
Speaker 3: we are a really good team. And you and I
Speaker 3: have talked about this where Sean Payton has done with
Speaker 3: bo Nix, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams right
Speaker 3: like he has basically thrown the book at him and
Speaker 3: gotten him better and better and better every single week.
Speaker 3: And that Falcons defense, they don't pressure anybody. Bo Nix
Speaker 3: is going to look at this and be like, are
Speaker 3: they even playing defense? Is anybody trying to come after me?
Speaker 3: Because of the difference between how aggressive the Chiefs are.
Speaker 3: So I'm having a hard time finding the winner in
Speaker 3: this one. I don't I'm probably not going to bet it.
Speaker 3: I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't
Speaker 3: really have a strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver.
Speaker 3: But you're not seeing people running to the window saying
Speaker 3: I got to get a ticket.
Speaker 1: On the Broncos. Finally, what's the game I should be
Speaker 1: betting that I have overlooked?
Speaker 3: I mean, I can't believe I have to say it,
Speaker 3: but hello Cleveland, Like, are you kidding me? We've got
Speaker 3: the Browns off a bye with a healthier defense. You
Speaker 3: look at their you look at their injury report, there's
Speaker 3: nobody on it. So Kevin Stefanski builds a game plan
Speaker 3: where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb
Speaker 3: behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning
Speaker 3: of the year, would have been a top five offensive line.
Speaker 3: And you've got a top five defensive line going against
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, who, when he's not pressured, as we saw
Speaker 3: against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback, and
Speaker 3: when he is pressured basically becomes one of the most
Speaker 3: losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not
Speaker 3: vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their
Speaker 3: Super Bowl? This was the game they had to win.
Speaker 3: I will not bet on the Saints again this year.
Speaker 3: That was a one time thing. Now I'll bet the Browns.
Speaker 3: And by the way, the wise guys have been betting
Speaker 3: the Browns. The line open to two and a half,
Speaker 3: down to two one and a half one, now it's
Speaker 3: a half. There are a lot of places where the
Speaker 3: Browns it's going to flip and they're going to be favorite.
Speaker 3: So if you want to get it, get it now.
Speaker 1: Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting, So.
Speaker 3: Disgusting, not only that you are betting on Jamis in
Speaker 3: his homecoming revenge game in New Orleans, the team that
Speaker 3: ran him out of town after he got Jamal Williams
Speaker 3: a touchdown last year, like he is going to. Kevin
Speaker 3: Stefanski is going to have to do everything he can
Speaker 3: possibly do to keep Jamis from making terrible, terrible throws
Speaker 3: and putting him in bad positions, and then the fifteen
Speaker 3: times that he asks him to throw in the game.
Speaker 3: He's just got to cross his fingers and pray.
Speaker 1: Any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and a half
Speaker 1: at San Francisco zero same, I get same.
Speaker 3: I can't get the Niners. You look at the box score.
Speaker 3: They should have beaten the Buccaneers by nine hundred points.
Speaker 1: I believe me. It was my lock of that year
Speaker 1: San France. Let us go.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it made no sense. And even like the Jake
Speaker 3: Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals,
Speaker 3: the last field goal, they still win by six and
Speaker 3: they cover the five and a half.
Speaker 1: So.
Speaker 3: It makes no sense to me their red zone struggles continue.
Speaker 3: You got to wonder how much does Brandon I you
Speaker 3: not being there really make a difference. Clearly it's something.
Speaker 3: It's more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian
Speaker 3: mccaffree and any injuries. I also wonder, Look Trent Williams,
Speaker 3: who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and
Speaker 3: one of the best in the NFL. He missed all
Speaker 3: a training camp and he's old, So you got to
Speaker 3: ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of
Speaker 3: an impact? They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They
Speaker 3: already weren't a great offensive line going into the season,
Speaker 3: and what Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency less
Speaker 3: so this year. So I don't have an opinion on this. Meanwhile,
Speaker 3: the Seahawks like they just waigh, they're leading tackler. I
Speaker 3: think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively.
Speaker 3: So I'm going to pass on this game as always.
Speaker 3: Chad Milman, Thanks man, good to see your brother.
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