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Speaker 1: All right, Chad Milman is going to stop on By

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Speaker 1: in about ten minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night Football twenty six eighteen. Philadelphia played like crap in

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Speaker 1: the first half and came back to win. Let's be

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Speaker 1: honest behind Saquon Barkley this. You know, Philadelphia is such

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Speaker 1: a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look

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Speaker 1: like You're getting into week ten, week eleven, it's a

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Speaker 1: short week. Philadelphia looked tired. Philadelphia look beat up. They

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Speaker 1: look tired. You know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical.

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Speaker 1: I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington,

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Speaker 1: couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't until the last final drives when you know

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Speaker 1: they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to

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Speaker 1: be a better football team than that. Eagles are six

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Speaker 1: and zero when Saquon Barkley rushes for one hundred plus yards,

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Speaker 1: so he's completely changed the offense Jalen Hurts, and there

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Speaker 1: were times tonight in the first half when Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 1: missed AJ Brown badly. I'm like a twelve fifteen yard out,

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Speaker 1: and you know, he's just the savior of the offense.

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Speaker 1: I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL

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Speaker 1: loves the trade to their rivals. It's sort of a

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Speaker 1: no no, you know, to me, as long as you're

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Speaker 1: not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The

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Speaker 1: New York Giants allowed and it was the most predictable

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Speaker 1: thing in the world. Saquon Barkley, their best player by

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Speaker 1: a lot, to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if

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Speaker 1: the Giants are going to clean house. But that's the

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Speaker 1: kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barkley's a

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Speaker 1: remarkable player, you know. You know, it's really cracks me up.

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Speaker 1: The media overreacts to everything, and a lot of it

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Speaker 1: is the media is much younger than it used to be.

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Speaker 1: Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have

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Speaker 1: the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to

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Speaker 1: get young and cheap in the media. So a lot

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Speaker 1: of times the media is thirty one years old, twenty

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Speaker 1: eight years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's

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Speaker 1: never happened before. But that's their life. You know, I've

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Speaker 1: been doing this so long now, and I'm believing that's

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Speaker 1: not a humble brag, you know, it's it's sometimes I

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Speaker 1: look at the media and I think, guys, this is

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Speaker 1: it's everything cyclical. I mean virtually politics is cyclical. Everything

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Speaker 1: is cyclical. Tech, the industry is not very old, but

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Speaker 1: it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts

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Speaker 1: to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was

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Speaker 1: it last year the off season, there was this big

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Speaker 1: complaint that running backs are not getting paid, and it's like,

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Speaker 1: take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You

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Speaker 1: tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't

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Speaker 1: get paid unless you're the la rams. They pay theirs.

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Speaker 1: Running Backs are always going to be valuable because a

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Speaker 1: running back is essential for a young quarterback. For instance,

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Speaker 1: all quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jalen Hurts is not

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Speaker 1: a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better the good

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Speaker 1: running back. Well, quarterbacks the most essential piece in the league. Secondly,

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Speaker 1: running backs, whether gets harsh, whether it gets colder, it

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Speaker 1: gets windier. November December, January, running games become more essential.

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Speaker 1: Not to mention, you know, our running back is such

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Speaker 1: a great piece, not just not just to set the

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Speaker 1: tempo of a team, but when you lead, and good

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Speaker 1: teams lead, and so a lot of times are running

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Speaker 1: back eats up the clock. So good teams are always

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Speaker 1: going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: is a good team. Excellent running back Isaah pa Checo

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Speaker 1: when he comes back, will be so valuable to the

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has

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Speaker 1: changed everything. Dereck Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look

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Speaker 1: at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

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Speaker 1: Let Joe Mixon go. Bengals would die for a twelve

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Speaker 1: play drive nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their

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Speaker 1: awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two

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Speaker 1: excellent running backs. So this idea that running backs were

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Speaker 1: going to you know, disappear into the ether. The reports

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Speaker 1: I said this on FS one I set up multiple

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Speaker 1: times take a deep breath. There was always going to

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Speaker 1: be a market for Austin Eckler. You know, Washington's like, hey,

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Speaker 1: we need you. You don't have to get thirty carries,

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Speaker 1: but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs

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Speaker 1: in the league. And Saquon Barkley is so valuable. This

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Speaker 1: is a team that's good. They often play with the league,

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Speaker 1: and he was like a closer tonight. He was just

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Speaker 1: so dependable late in the football game. I will say,

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Speaker 1: if these are two of the best teams in the NFC,

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Speaker 1: then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But

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Speaker 1: I also think Jalen Hurts allows Saquon Barkley, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: allows Jalen Hurts to throw less in a six game

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Speaker 1: winning streak. He's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 1: can throw twenty two times. He didn't have to throw

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Speaker 1: thirty four times. So it frustrates me sometimes. And I

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Speaker 1: see this in the political media. You know, to the

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Speaker 1: Trump election. It's listen, the election was decided by a

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Speaker 1: million six votes or something like that in the country

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Speaker 1: of three hundred and fifty million people. And you can

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Speaker 1: see from the appointees, you know, Trump Trump is almost

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Speaker 1: going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president.

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Speaker 1: You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team.

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Speaker 1: You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House,

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Speaker 1: things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever.

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Speaker 1: So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember it was

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Speaker 1: the small ball league and everybody got small, and then

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Speaker 1: here comes Jokis and here comes Giannis, and you know,

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Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big, let's

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Speaker 1: get Poor Zingis. And now you know, with the emergence

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Speaker 1: of some of these young stars like a Wemby, you

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Speaker 1: just have to have size. You're just in the NBA,

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Speaker 1: you're just not gonna win a championship. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Julius Randalls Sea, We'll take Karl Anthony Towns. We need

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Speaker 1: more size if we want to match up with Jiannis,

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Speaker 1: Embiid and Poor Zingis in the East. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: amazing how many true big men. Anthony Davis is the

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Speaker 1: best player in the Lakers, Jannis on Milwaukee, Jokic, Wemby,

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Speaker 1: There's all sorts of good players. Check Holmgren such a

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Speaker 1: good player for Okay, so he's not as good as SGA,

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Speaker 1: but a great player. So I mean one team Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: I mean it has been kind of reboot as a

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Speaker 1: franchise before Karl Anthony town got traded because they went

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Speaker 1: and got Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. They went

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Speaker 1: and got two centers. Everything, everything over time either re emerges, emerges, regresses.

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Speaker 1: To the mean, take a deep breath, It's all going

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Speaker 1: to be okay, you know. I also think what's happening

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Speaker 1: last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs. And I

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Speaker 1: thought tonight when Washington I couldn't you couldn't figure the

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Speaker 1: first half out. I mean you look at the stats.

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Speaker 1: Washington never had the football. They had the football eleven

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Speaker 1: minutes and they led, and it was one of these

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Speaker 1: football games You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia so much better, Jacksonville,

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Speaker 1: Minnesota last weekend? Minnesota was so much better San Francisco

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Speaker 1: and Tampa last week and go to the box score

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Speaker 1: in that game. So what you're finding is a lot

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Speaker 1: of these superior football teams. They're injured, they're beat up,

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Speaker 1: they're playing some backups, they're tired. You know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of the better football teams in the NFL, they have

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Speaker 1: older players, players just out of their prime. Week ten,

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Speaker 1: week eleven, week twelve. Listen. I like Jayden Daniels, and

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Speaker 1: let's talk about this, but he's hit a bit of

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Speaker 1: a rookie wall. And last year C. J. Stroud had

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Speaker 1: a three game stretch and we all like him where

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Speaker 1: he completed fifty seven percent of his throws. So Jaden

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Speaker 1: Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson field. Nobody

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Speaker 1: has any film, nobody has in the NFL film. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you're just kind of okay. You go back and look

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Speaker 1: at the LSU film. I mean, you don't you don't

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Speaker 1: know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with

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Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels brand new. So you get four five weeks

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Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, then you know, then they lose

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Speaker 1: to a Baltimore and I played Pittsburgh a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago and they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now

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Speaker 1: they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams Washington I

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Speaker 1: had as a wildcard team coming into the season. Some

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Speaker 1: teams it takes a while to figure them out. And

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Speaker 1: I think more than any team in the NFL. That's Washington.

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Speaker 1: They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it. Kingsbury's

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Speaker 1: got a new offense and a new quarterback, and everybody's

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Speaker 1: kind of just you just you need more film, and

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden you kind of figure out

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Speaker 1: what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line,

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Speaker 1: you know, into the season. Going into the season, we

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Speaker 1: all said about the Commanders. Don't know if I like

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Speaker 1: the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early,

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Speaker 1: some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking up seven

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Speaker 1: yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they

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Speaker 1: really don't have good enough. You know. I like their

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Speaker 1: running backs, but I mean Terry McLaurin in the first

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Speaker 1: half didn't even see a target, you know. So people

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Speaker 1: take Terry McLaurin out, and it's a pretty weak wide

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Speaker 1: receiving crew and it's a pretty average offensive line. And

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Speaker 1: now everybody's got all the tape, and so I think

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Speaker 1: he's going to be I think I think Jayden Daniels

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Speaker 1: has been a home run or you know, Rookie of

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Speaker 1: the Year all that stuff. But this is the reality.

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Speaker 1: C J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had

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Speaker 1: some games where you know, the game speeds up. The

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Speaker 1: other thing is what happens is like a young quarterback

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Speaker 1: maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies you know,

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Speaker 1: more on a running back, and then people start getting

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Speaker 1: dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven, and

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Speaker 1: now you know Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components

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Speaker 1: he needs, and so you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has

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Speaker 1: certain things He's not gonna run, certain plays, certain sets,

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Speaker 1: so you know on insert day, you know, and this

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Speaker 1: is a short week anyway, you know, you're just you're

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Speaker 1: limited on what you have. And I think that's what

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Speaker 1: you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback and

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Speaker 1: it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps.

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Speaker 1: You No, Bowe Nicks started slowly, but he has an

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Speaker 1: offensive head coach and one of the great ones in

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the

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Speaker 1: element of surprise, what the heck is Jaden Daniels and

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Speaker 1: you're guessing and he's so electric and so athletic. He

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Speaker 1: was just he was picking up yards with his feet.

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Speaker 1: Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar in

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Speaker 1: the NFC and now we're seeing people have a track.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't mean it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 1: I mean Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he

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Speaker 1: would have trouble in some division games as teams in

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Speaker 1: his division like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late

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Speaker 1: week eleven, he beats the Chargers, and he has to

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Speaker 1: face him again in the playoffs and he loses the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the

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Speaker 1: Chargers at the time, and he said, you know you

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Speaker 1: first time you face him, Yeah, I mean you just don't.

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Speaker 1: Because you can watch all the film you want, you

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Speaker 1: have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is,

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Speaker 1: how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then

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Speaker 1: the second time you face him, Okay, we're going to

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Speaker 1: take away this, that's his fastball. We're taking away that

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Speaker 1: force him to go to his second and his third receiver.

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Speaker 1: And then you he's still tough to beat. But you

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Speaker 1: can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's had a great record with against

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Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin. They always have a good defense.

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Speaker 1: They see him multiple times a year, they know all

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Speaker 1: the tricks, and so I think Jayden Daniels will be

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Speaker 1: a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him

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Speaker 1: a lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well run, good

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Speaker 1: pieces that sees him twice a year, you know he

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Speaker 1: may have through the years, he may have trouble with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, but still love him. It's a pretty good

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Speaker 1: quarterback class. A few years ago we had the class

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Speaker 1: with Jalen Hurts and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 1: This quarterback class, JJ McCarthy looked really really good in

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Speaker 1: the preseason. Preseason, but he looked really good. And Bo

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Speaker 1: Nicks looks good, and Jayden Daniels looks good. And I

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Speaker 1: do believe Kayleb Williams will eventually get it right or

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Speaker 1: closer to what he's going to be. He had a

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Speaker 1: good three game stretcher earlier this season. Kayleb Williams was

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Speaker 1: seventy four percent completion percentage three games. But again, now

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Speaker 1: people are getting taped. Now they see what Caleb can't do.

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Speaker 1: Then all of a sudden you have a wide receiver

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Speaker 1: that stinged up, just steps, just a process. Jaden's going

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Speaker 1: to be great. I thought Philadelphia and I they just

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Speaker 1: looked they were a little tired, little beat up, but

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Speaker 1: they came back to be the inferior roster twenty six

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Speaker 1: to eighteen. Nick Ceriani, I still cannot get over. I

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Speaker 1: don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year.

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Speaker 1: Offensive coach Sakwon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Davonte Smith,

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Speaker 1: good old line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because

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Speaker 1: this game put me to sleep, but they're the only

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Speaker 1: franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in

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Speaker 1: love with the coach. And yet I think it's a

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Speaker 1: top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas

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Speaker 1: City feels so stable, Baltimore feels so stable, Philadelphia is

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Speaker 1: a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators

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Speaker 1: have they had. I mean they're on their third offensive

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Speaker 1: coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches,

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Speaker 1: a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see

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Speaker 1: them like the New York Jets the New York Giants.

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Speaker 1: As a reactionary, I tend to think they're proactive, smart owner,

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Speaker 1: smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly, but

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Speaker 1: at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a

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Speaker 1: winning record. But you know what we found out in

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Speaker 1: San Francisco. Chip's more of a college guy than a

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Speaker 1: pro guy. So they knew something in the building that

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Speaker 1: we didn't. Even though they went ten and six ten

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Speaker 1: and six first two years with pretty average quarterback play,

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Speaker 1: they knew something. They saw something Carson Wentz. They signed

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Speaker 1: him to a big deal, and then they know they

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Speaker 1: kind of moved off him, and you're thinking, what are

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Speaker 1: you doing here? You just sign them to do a

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Speaker 1: big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they

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Speaker 1: know things in the building. They keep it to themselves,

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Speaker 1: and they react proactively, very strongly. And so Philadelphia once again,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this offense with Jalen Hurts has been one

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Speaker 1: of two things, turnover prone and awful, or when Nick

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Speaker 1: Sirianni moves back and lets his oc run things excellent.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing in between. It's either been you know, like

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Speaker 1: right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a

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Speaker 1: great old line at Saquon Barkley six and zero are

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Speaker 1: the Eagles when Saquon rushes for one hundred or more

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Speaker 1: completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's

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Speaker 1: some interesting things tonight Jake Paul, Mike Tyson. Saturday, John

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Speaker 1: Jones UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get

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Speaker 1: a fight on a Friday and a Saturday into a

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Speaker 1: big football weekend excellent. Chad Melman's next All right, there's

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Speaker 1: never been a night quite like this. On Friday, November fifteenth,

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Speaker 1: Netflix and Most Valuable Promotions bring you the highly anticipated

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Speaker 1: boxing mega event of the year. Jake el Gaio Paul

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Speaker 1: will go toe to toe in the ring against Iron

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Speaker 1: Mike Tyson, for a long time, the baddest man on

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Speaker 1: the planet. When a disruptor challenges a legend, anything can happen.

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Speaker 1: Also that night, historic rematch between the Brave Bomb Katie

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Speaker 1: Taylor and Amanda The Real Deal Toronto. The last time

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Speaker 1: they met in the ring, history was made. Women's boxing

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Speaker 1: was catapulted in new hypes.

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Speaker 3: Though.

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Speaker 1: These are the fights the world's been waiting for. Don't

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Speaker 1: miss these epic showdowns. It is live from at and

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Speaker 1: T Stadium, in Arlington, Texas. Watch Paul Versus Tyson Friday

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Speaker 1: November fifteenth, eight pm Eastern, five BM Pacific live on Netflix.

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Speaker 1: You can also follow the road to the Fight by

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Speaker 1: watching Countdown Paul Versus Tyson, a three part documentary series

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Speaker 1: beginning November twelfth, only on Netflix. Time for another edition

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Speaker 1: of Sharp or Square. He's a host at the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: All of our odds are always provided by Draftings Sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: All right, Chad Melman, there are certain games I just

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Speaker 1: want to watch and not bet. But I would take

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Speaker 1: the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens. The number is

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Speaker 1: three and a half. It's one of the bets of

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Speaker 1: the weekend. At three, I still think I take it.

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Speaker 1: I think George Pickens and Mike Williams attack the Ravens weakness.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is one of those teams and this is rare.

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Speaker 1: With a great team, they can outplay you and then

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Speaker 1: get beat by The Raiders, can get beat by inferior teams.

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Speaker 1: They're so bad on the back end. And I think

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: Light Russell's not what's what he was was, But in

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Speaker 1: this rivalry even a field goal. I'm taking the point

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Speaker 1: Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a

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Speaker 3: couple of different directions. Won the matchup the wise guy

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Speaker 3: seed exactly the way you do. We've been watching it

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Speaker 3: all year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in

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Speaker 3: the back door, right. We saw it with the Commanders,

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Speaker 3: they were down a significant amount, they came back, they

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Speaker 3: came back and they were able to cover that game.

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Speaker 3: We saw it with the Bengals who were up so

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Speaker 3: much because they were able to attack the back end

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Speaker 3: of the Ravens defense. And don't forget, no Kyle Humphrey

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Speaker 3: in this game. Kyle Humphrey is one of their, if

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Speaker 3: not their best defender, and now that secondary is going

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Speaker 3: to be even worse. The overarching theme here and this

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Speaker 3: is the reason why professionals are on it. Don't forget

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Speaker 3: this game opened at three and a half, it is

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Speaker 3: settled at three. The wise guys are still on it.

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Speaker 3: But look in the regular season, in this game, in

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Speaker 3: this matchup the past twenty years, when the line is

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Speaker 3: three or more, the underdog twenty two four and three,

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Speaker 3: underdog fifteen to two and one. Since two thousand and

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Speaker 3: fifteen in the regular season, when Mike Tomlin fases John Harbaugh,

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Speaker 3: the underdog in this matchup twenty three, six and three,

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Speaker 3: and then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable

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Speaker 3: coach as an underdog in the past twenty years in

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Speaker 3: the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh when he's

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Speaker 3: a favorite is not nearly as good as when he's

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Speaker 3: a dog in this matchup. So there is a reason,

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Speaker 3: and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers

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Speaker 3: at plus three. You're sure.

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Speaker 1: You know I like the number four and five. So

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Speaker 1: Greg Cosell said something on my show today that had

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Speaker 1: influence over me. This was going to be a stay

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Speaker 1: away game. But the Packers offensive coach off of by

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Speaker 1: at Chicago and what Greg Cosell said, it's not a

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Speaker 1: Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson,

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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it.

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Speaker 1: He is not able to see something, spot it, get

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Speaker 1: the ball out quickly. Green Bay I think has its

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Speaker 1: most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach.

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Speaker 1: I think he's been a really nice fit for them.

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Speaker 1: Under the radar, low Key really knows his side of

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Speaker 1: the ball. It's five. I would take Green Bay. I

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Speaker 1: know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization coach

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Speaker 1: Jordan loves healthier sharper square.

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Speaker 3: So the wise guys have been on the Bears in

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Speaker 3: this game. It's moved from six to five and a

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Speaker 3: half to now five in some places. I agree with

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Speaker 3: you for what it's worth for me, this is a

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Speaker 3: pass or it's the Packers. I think there's so much

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Speaker 3: dysfunction with the Bears, and the reason why the wise

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Speaker 3: guys are taking them right now is because they believe

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Speaker 3: this is bottomed down right. It's gotten as bad as

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Speaker 3: it can get. In the locker room, it can't get

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Speaker 3: any worse. Whether you believe the players were responsible for

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Speaker 3: getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen,

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Speaker 3: Whether you believe that the system can now get a

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Speaker 3: little bit less complex and easier for Kayleb Williams, whether

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Speaker 3: you believe that they're getting two offensive linemen back, which

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Speaker 3: they are and will make him feel more comfortable in

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Speaker 3: the pocket. This team has been full of chaos, and

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Speaker 3: so the wise guys are betting, literally that it cannot

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Speaker 3: get any worse. In a division game against their rival

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Speaker 3: at home. The flip side is entirely about what the

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Speaker 3: Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic as a

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Speaker 3: defense this year, a lot of interceptions. They cannot rush

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Speaker 3: the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this

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Speaker 3: is where Matt laflor has been a genius figure out

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Speaker 3: how to best take advantage of what the Bears are

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Speaker 3: bad at on defense. The Bears are not a very

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Speaker 3: good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt Lafleor does with

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Speaker 3: someone like Josh Jacobs when he knows he doesn't have

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Speaker 3: Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get

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Speaker 3: the running game in motion. He will likely do that

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Speaker 3: against the Bears. Also, Matt lafleur seven and three when

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Speaker 3: favored by four points or more. Over the past two decades,

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Speaker 3: road favorites off of a buy covered a sixty percent clip.

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Speaker 3: Road favorites of five and a half or more cover

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Speaker 3: it a seventy percent clip. So there's lots of reasons to

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Speaker 3: like the Packers here. The wise guys, I think the

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Speaker 3: right side is the Bears.

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Speaker 1: So Journey had a song years ago and one of

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Speaker 1: the lyrics is I can't stop loving you, and I

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Speaker 1: feel that's odds makers on the Jets. This is a

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Speaker 1: bad test. How in God's name were they they favored

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Speaker 1: at Arizona? It was never competitive, Colts getting over a

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Speaker 1: field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go to the sidelines. Not a smart move. It's not

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Speaker 1: punishable by a month on the bench. He learned his

424
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: lesson when he's healthy. He's kind of a fascinating player

425
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice

426
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 1: that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback.

427
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 1: He's a huge, tackle breaking tornado of activity. That's not

428
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 1: a great quarterback. But I'm taking the points here all day.

429
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: Sharper Square.

430
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: It's a fifty to fifty game right now. And I

431
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 3: agree with you. You think about Journey, I think that

432
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: same way when I think about offensive lines who are really,

433
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 3: really physical, and the Colts offensive line when it comes

434
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 3: to run blocking is super physical in the NFL, and

435
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 3: we saw this last week. I loved the Colts last

436
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 3: week against the Bills at home, and if not from

437
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco and three turnovers and if not for getting

438
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 3: sacked when it's fourth and inches. I know, if not for,

439
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 3: if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden,

440
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is they

441
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 3: ran the ball on the Bills. They had more than

442
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty yards rushing and Jonathan Taylor went

443
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 3: for more than one hundred and average five and a

444
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 3: half yards per carry, so they were able to do

445
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 3: exactly what they wanted to do against the Bills. The

446
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 3: Jets defense from a rushing perspective is worse than the

447
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 3: Bills rush defense, and the team overall is much worse

448
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 3: than the Bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson.

449
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: Back to your point, this is a better opportunity for

450
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 3: Shane Steichen to let everybody run with the ball and

451
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 3: dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week against

452
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, they were afraid to tackle anybody. This is

453
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: not a physical defense, and they have gotten so much

454
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 3: worse since Robert Silo was fired. So the line moved

455
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 3: down from four to three and a half, from actually

456
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 3: from four and a half to four to three and

457
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 3: a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts.

458
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: It's come back a little bit on the on the Jets,

459
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 3: and so now it's settled at for the majority of

460
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 3: wise guys are with you and they will be in

461
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: the Colts.

462
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: Well. A Rams minus four and a half that key

463
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: number of game at New England, so very rarely is

464
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: have I ever seen a Sean McVay team out coached.

465
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 1: It felt like they were out schemed early. It was

466
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: like an I thought it was an embarrassing game for

467
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: Sean McVay and it was hard to digest because the Dolphins,

468
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 1: a poor pass rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four

469
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 1: were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches

470
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 1: and good quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy.

471
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 1: That was not the Rams. They were playing very good.

472
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: It's a short week. I think New England now are

473
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 1: all buying to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now.

474
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: Drake May is not Tua. He's not They don't have

475
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 1: those weapons. They're not going to listen to. Rams brought

476
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: some people and they got burned on third down because

477
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 1: Tua is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallowed the

478
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: four and a half here take the Ram sharper square.

479
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 3: So it's been square, and I got to tell you.

480
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 3: We've talked about executive decisions before. I don't know why

481
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 3: the wise guys are on the Patriots here. It doesn't

482
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: make any sense to me at all. This is a

483
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 3: bilo on the better team, sell high on the worst

484
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: team situation. Why would you be betting the Patriots who

485
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 3: are so high on life after beating up on the

486
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 3: Bears on the road a franchise tying record nine sacks

487
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 3: against Caleb Williams. And look, I watched that game obviously,

488
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 3: the Rams and the Dolphins too. I looked at it

489
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 3: a little differently. The Rams have five field goals. The

490
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 3: Rams red zone this season has been atrocious, and to me,

491
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 3: that was sort of the bottoming out right. Every time

492
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 3: they got close, it was a sack, it was a

493
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,120
Speaker 3: botch snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake.

494
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: And then there were a couple times defensively, you know,

495
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,719
Speaker 3: they had that third and twenty five that they gave up,

496
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 3: and they gave up a penalty on that one too.

497
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 3: They had another field goal, they made the field goal

498
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 3: five yard illegal motion penalty, they moved back, and then

499
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 3: all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So

500
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 3: to me, it was just it was a game full

501
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 3: of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team. You're

502
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 3: getting the much better team in a bounce back spot

503
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 3: with a relatively low number.

504
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: So I like that.

505
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 3: By the way, teams who have been favorites at home

506
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 3: and lost and then our favorites the following week on

507
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 3: the road about sixty percent the past twenty years against

508
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 3: the spread. And by the way, Sean McVeigh short rest

509
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 3: fourteen and six against the spread ten and one in

510
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 3: his last eleven games with Matthew Stafford six and one

511
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 3: short rest, Like, I don't understand the move here. It

512
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 3: doesn't make any sense to me.

513
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, let's go with the Rams Kansas City plus

514
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: two and a half at Buffalo. I think Buffalo is

515
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 1: the most equipped they've ever been to beat Kansas City.

516
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: But now Coleman's not playing and Amari Cooper's banned up

517
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: and Kincaid might not play. You're not beating him at

518
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 1: half strength because they're going to put you an uncomfortable

519
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:26,919
Speaker 1: third and longs and it's a and they're getting By

520
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 1: the way, they're getting Pachecko back, so that that can

521
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 1: be a difference maker for their run game, which has

522
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,959
Speaker 1: been pretty pedestrian Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out

523
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 1: of the backfield, but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore.

524
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: This feels like an obvious one chiefs plus the points,

525
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: even though it's not three sharper square.

526
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: Yeah. So what's interesting about this is on Sunday night,

527
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 3: this line opened at chiefs plus one and it started

528
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 3: skyrocketing higher. And Sunday nights Monday mornings, that's when the

529
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 3: wise guys are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines.

530
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 3: There are line moves in that first twenty four hour

531
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: window that's professional money. And this line moved from Kansas

532
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 3: City plus one, Kansas City plus one and a half,

533
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 3: Kansas City plus two, Kansas City plus two and a half,

534
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 3: and it made no sense. This is a little bit

535
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 3: like the Steelers, where you know what the precedent is.

536
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 3: You know, Mike Tomlin does this x percent amount of time.

537
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 3: That is what we call in the betting business a

538
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: plus EV plus expected value return on your investment. Right,

539
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: so you just bet it. Like he might not love it,

540
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,719
Speaker 3: you might get burned on it four times out of ten,

541
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 3: but six times out of ten you're going to win.

542
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 3: The percentages. With Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a

543
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 3: favorite of less than three are so much higher than

544
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 3: anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's

545
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 3: getting by with a little bit of voodoo this year.

546
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 3: Maybe he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games they

547
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 3: show a loss to the forty nine, Maybe they should

548
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: have lost to the Broncos like there have been spots,

549
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: But look, twelve one and one against the spread? Is

550
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 3: Mahomes as an underdog? Okay? His only against the spread

551
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 3: loss was against the Bills two years ago two and

552
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 3: a half point underdogs They lost by four twenty five

553
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: and ten straight up twenty six, eight and one in

554
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 3: his career against the spread as a favorite of three

555
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: or fewer points or as an underdog, like I'm with you,

556
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in this spot.

557
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: If people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl

558
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 3: where he was a two and a half point underdog.

559
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 3: If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you

560
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 3: want to be betting against him at the end of

561
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 3: the game. Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No,

562
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 3: nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari

563
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: Cooper out, Kin Kaid if he does play is playing

564
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 3: with the cast. They're a little banged up on the

565
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: right side of their offensive, like there are reasons to

566
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: be afraid to bet on the bills beyond Patrick Mahomes.

567
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 3: So yes, this line has come down, by the way

568
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 3: to answer the original question. So it's starting to become

569
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 3: sharp to bet on the chiefs.

570
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: Are you struggling to find the right candidates? Well, good news,

571
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575
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580
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581
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586
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 1: really is all right, the final one of my picks.

587
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: So the Chargers are only minus one and a half

588
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: and I looked at that number and thought, why that's

589
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: a funky number. No, it's not the offense. I'm going

590
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: to take the Bengals plus the points here here's why.

591
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: So they played on Thursday. Now they get it. Not

592
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: only do they get extra rest, they don't play till Monday.

593
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: So it's a strange. It's really a lot of extra rest.

594
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback

595
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: and an offensive coach, I think that time matters. The

596
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 1: Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach. That

597
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach

598
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: Taylor and Joe Burrow and they're already humming and the Chargers.

599
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: Everybody loves the Chargers. They don't have a ton of

600
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: downfield weapons. They have very few plus twenty yard plays.

601
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: So there's a way they have to play to win

602
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: long drives. Long drives are hard, penalties fumbles, It's hard

603
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: to create nine to ten and eleven play drives, Bengals

604
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,479
Speaker 1: score quickly, they get freebies. I'm gonna take the points

605
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: to the Bengals the rest sharper square.

606
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's sharp this numbers move. It opened at two

607
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: and a half last Sunday to move down to about

608
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 3: got down to one actually, and then bounced up a

609
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: little bit with some Charger moony at one and a half.

610
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 3: But it's definitely the sharp side. I I I agree

611
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 3: with you, like you want to be on the Bengal

612
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 3: side here for the same reason you don't want to

613
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting

614
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: against Joe Burrow, who lights out this year, who has

615
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: an underdog is second only to Patrick Mahomes, and how

616
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks, you don't.

617
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor

618
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 3: of the Chargers right now is because this has been

619
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: a very strange gambling year. You know, to look Macro here,

620
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 3: you as a businessman, as someone who has succeeded far

621
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 3: beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks

622
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 3: has been earning season for public traded companies right that

623
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,240
Speaker 3: includes sports betting operators, the two major sports betting operators

624
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 3: both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year

625
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,320
Speaker 3: because of what they have defined as customer friendly outcomes,

626
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in

627
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 3: reduce revenue because so many favorites are winning this year,

628
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 3: so many more than expected, right And what that means

629
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 3: is that teams like the Chargers have been over exceeding

630
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,320
Speaker 3: the expectation as favorites because they do exactly what you

631
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:52,240
Speaker 3: want them to do. They don't make high variant coaching

632
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 3: decisions because Harbaught is very consistent. You know what he's

633
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 3: going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're

634
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 3: really disciplined, so they don't have this stupid penalties that

635
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,720
Speaker 3: a lot of other teams have having, and those things

636
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 3: have been impacting the games in a much wider way

637
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 3: than they have in previous years. So that's why people

638
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making

639
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: people money. But the sharp side in this game are

640
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 3: the Bengals.

641
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 1: Always a game I want you to pick for me.

642
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: I like Denver at home minus two and a half

643
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 1: against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins not one hundred percent Pennix could play,

644
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: and though he played it Indiana and Washington cold wet

645
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: weather areas, it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a

646
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: tremendous pass rush. I do worry that out playing Kansas

647
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: City and losing the way they did is an emotional

648
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there.

649
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 1: But Bonnicks and this Denver team, they know they're not

650
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: a Hoist Trophy team, like they know they're going to

651
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 1: lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a

652
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: thin roster, and I think there's value in playing close

653
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: and out playing the Super Bowl champs. I think they

654
00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: actually come out of that game thinking shit, out played Mahomes.

655
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,439
Speaker 1: I don't think this is a veteran team that really

656
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,240
Speaker 1: SAgs and thinks. You know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs

657
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 1: again the following week, you like you really have a

658
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 1: low energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here.

659
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: Tell me why I'm right or wrong.

660
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 3: Well, I actually cannot decide on this game. It's so

661
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 3: interesting you bring it up because early in the week

662
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: I loved Atlanta. Here I thought to myself, Atlanta really

663
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 3: shouldn't have lost that game and against New Orleans, and

664
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,760
Speaker 3: you know, I love New Orleans. Last week I tried

665
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 3: to get you to come along with me on New Orleans.

666
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 3: You are not having it. You will not that game

667
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 3: you want, you don't want to watch. You totally get it,

668
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 3: respect the theory, but I felt like at the end

669
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 3: of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the

670
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 3: second half, the Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a

671
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 3: field goal that could have tied the game with six

672
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 3: minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now

673
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 3: you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against

674
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 3: the spread, great straight up coming off a loss. I

675
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 3: really like the way the Falcons have been running the ball.

676
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 3: Bijon has been a different level of player than he

677
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 3: was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things

678
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 3: that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield,

679
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 3: his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to

680
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 3: run people over. I then thought about, Okay, two and

681
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 3: a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're

682
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 3: overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to and what they

683
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,479
Speaker 3: did against the Chiefs, And I like you, I felt

684
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: like the chief The Broncos will walk away that of

685
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 3: that game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened.

686
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: I would not be crustified with them at all. I'd

687
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 3: be going into a thinking, Wow, we can hang like

688
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 3: we are a really good team. And you and I

689
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 3: have talked about this where Sean Payton has done with

690
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 3: bo Nix, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams right

691
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: like he has basically thrown the book at him and

692
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 3: gotten him better and better and better every single week.

693
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 3: And that Falcons defense, they don't pressure anybody. Bo Nix

694
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 3: is going to look at this and be like, are

695
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 3: they even playing defense? Is anybody trying to come after me?

696
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 3: Because of the difference between how aggressive the Chiefs are.

697
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 3: So I'm having a hard time finding the winner in

698
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 3: this one. I don't I'm probably not going to bet it.

699
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 3: I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't

700
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 3: really have a strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver.

701
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 3: But you're not seeing people running to the window saying

702
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 3: I got to get a ticket.

703
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: On the Broncos. Finally, what's the game I should be

704
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: betting that I have overlooked?

705
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I can't believe I have to say it,

706
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 3: but hello Cleveland, Like, are you kidding me? We've got

707
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 3: the Browns off a bye with a healthier defense. You

708
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 3: look at their you look at their injury report, there's

709
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 3: nobody on it. So Kevin Stefanski builds a game plan

710
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 3: where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb

711
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 3: behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning

712
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: of the year, would have been a top five offensive line.

713
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,760
Speaker 3: And you've got a top five defensive line going against

714
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, who, when he's not pressured, as we saw

715
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 3: against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback, and

716
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 3: when he is pressured basically becomes one of the most

717
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 3: losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not

718
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 3: vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their

719
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 3: Super Bowl? This was the game they had to win.

720
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 3: I will not bet on the Saints again this year.

721
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,760
Speaker 3: That was a one time thing. Now I'll bet the Browns.

722
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 3: And by the way, the wise guys have been betting

723
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 3: the Browns. The line open to two and a half,

724
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 3: down to two one and a half one, now it's

725
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: a half. There are a lot of places where the

726
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 3: Browns it's going to flip and they're going to be favorite.

727
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 3: So if you want to get it, get it now.

728
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting, So.

729
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 3: Disgusting, not only that you are betting on Jamis in

730
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 3: his homecoming revenge game in New Orleans, the team that

731
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 3: ran him out of town after he got Jamal Williams

732
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 3: a touchdown last year, like he is going to. Kevin

733
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 3: Stefanski is going to have to do everything he can

734
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:31,280
Speaker 3: possibly do to keep Jamis from making terrible, terrible throws

735
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,720
Speaker 3: and putting him in bad positions, and then the fifteen

736
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 3: times that he asks him to throw in the game.

737
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 3: He's just got to cross his fingers and pray.

738
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: Any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and a half

739
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: at San Francisco zero same, I get same.

740
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: I can't get the Niners. You look at the box score.

741
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 3: They should have beaten the Buccaneers by nine hundred points.

742
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: I believe me. It was my lock of that year

743
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 1: San France. Let us go.

744
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, it made no sense. And even like the Jake

745
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 3: Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals,

746
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 3: the last field goal, they still win by six and

747
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 3: they cover the five and a half.

748
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 1: So.

749
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 3: It makes no sense to me their red zone struggles continue.

750
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 3: You got to wonder how much does Brandon I you

751
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 3: not being there really make a difference. Clearly it's something.

752
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 3: It's more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian

753
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 3: mccaffree and any injuries. I also wonder, Look Trent Williams,

754
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 3: who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and

755
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 3: one of the best in the NFL. He missed all

756
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 3: a training camp and he's old, So you got to

757
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 3: ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of

758
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: an impact? They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They

759
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 3: already weren't a great offensive line going into the season,

760
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 3: and what Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency less

761
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 3: so this year. So I don't have an opinion on this. Meanwhile,

762
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 3: the Seahawks like they just waigh, they're leading tackler. I

763
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 3: think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively.

764
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 3: So I'm going to pass on this game as always.

765
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,280
Speaker 3: Chad Milman, Thanks man, good to see your brother.

766
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,800
Speaker 1: The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed

767
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 1: the podcast, take a moment rate and review