Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day
Speaker 1: we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of
Speaker 1: business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on
Speaker 1: in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing
Speaker 1: the power of Business Week reporters and editors. If you
Speaker 1: can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com. If you can also listen to our radio
Speaker 1: show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be
Speaker 1: sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Global News. So it's been a couple of months, Paul,
Speaker 1: since we checked last, or checked last, and check we
Speaker 1: last checked in. Let's try that again. Let's try it again.
Speaker 1: It's only Wednesday's were last checked in with Dr William Hasltin.
Speaker 1: He is chairman and president of Access Health International. It's
Speaker 1: a nonprofit thing tank. It's on a mission to improve
Speaker 1: access to high quality and affordable health care for people everywhere.
Speaker 1: He's also a very well known name when it comes
Speaker 1: to biotech, of course, founding a dozen biotech companies, including
Speaker 1: Human Genome Sciences. He has put out several living e books.
Speaker 1: Living because they're constantly updated on how we are living
Speaker 1: with COVID and figuring out our way back. He's also
Speaker 1: I got an autobiography, my lifelong fight against disease from
Speaker 1: polio and AIDS to COVID nineteen. Quite a trip, he
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Connecticut, Doctor haselteen, It
Speaker 1: is so nice to have you back with us. Um,
Speaker 1: how are you. I'm very well, very happy here in Connecticut.
Speaker 1: I Uh, during the summer, I purchased an old farm
Speaker 1: and I'm busy, uh, sort of fixing it up. It's
Speaker 1: a lot of working old farm, I can tell you. Yeah.
Speaker 1: They're bigger farmers. Not no easy business. Um. So Dr Hazel, team,
Speaker 1: let's just start with the numbers. They're not going in
Speaker 1: the right direction. I guess we can say we we're
Speaker 1: expecting this some type of second wave. What what are
Speaker 1: you seeing in the numbers as relates to new cases
Speaker 1: and so on. Let's take a global look. It's we
Speaker 1: look at Europe. We see very sharp spikes in European
Speaker 1: leading European countries UH, Italy, France, UH, Spain, UK. The
Speaker 1: numbers are up from the peak, the very very peak
Speaker 1: of the spring. They now back up three to five
Speaker 1: times higher than they were think about that three to
Speaker 1: five times higher than they were when we saw those
Speaker 1: dreadful scenes from Italy originally and then other places. Uh,
Speaker 1: North and South America, with the Canadian exception, but connect
Speaker 1: Canada is beginning to show signs of distress are really bad. Um,
Speaker 1: both North and South America. India is in dreadful shape.
Speaker 1: There's only one part of the world actually maybe two
Speaker 1: that are doing well for some reason that people don't understand.
Speaker 1: I'm beginning to look at Sub Saharan Africa, and then
Speaker 1: of course China. China and Southeast Asia are in great shape,
Speaker 1: but especially China, which has had six fifty million people
Speaker 1: travel over Golden Week and nobody got interacted. I have
Speaker 1: offices in Shanghai and Beijing, and everybody's going about their business.
Speaker 1: Their economy is growing. There have the highest exports and
Speaker 1: imports as they've ever had. UM. That global picture gives
Speaker 1: you two pieces of information. One, this epidemic can be
Speaker 1: controlled through public health measures. Follow the book and you
Speaker 1: can be China. It isn't totalitarian. It's following the book,
Speaker 1: the guide book. And there are many such books. If
Speaker 1: you asked me the names of them. Uh, there are
Speaker 1: many such books which will tell you how to control
Speaker 1: a pandemic. You need good leadership which is clear, credible,
Speaker 1: and consistent. You need good governance and the public health
Speaker 1: institutions to guy you. And you need a sense of
Speaker 1: solidarity in your population. They have it. The rest of
Speaker 1: the world seems to lack it, especially the United States, which,
Speaker 1: despite four of the world's population, is about of the
Speaker 1: world's disease. We are punching way above our weight, but
Speaker 1: not where we want to be. Now, what everybody is
Speaker 1: concerned about is what's happening right now and in the
Speaker 1: next few months. And it looks grim because we're not
Speaker 1: doing what's necessary because we don't have leadership, Our governance
Speaker 1: processes are faulty, and our social solidarity never was really strong.
Speaker 1: It is falling apart. We've got real problems. I had
Speaker 1: serious problems, Okay, grim, Yeah, I mean, and it doesn't
Speaker 1: surprise me when you were going down the list of
Speaker 1: leadership could govern ince sense of solidarity, And I felt
Speaker 1: like there was some solidarity certainly in New York Metro
Speaker 1: when we were hitting some of those high numbers. But
Speaker 1: you know, we're not hitting or firing annal cylinders when
Speaker 1: it comes to that list that you just put out there.
Speaker 1: So what does that mean? Do you think Let's take
Speaker 1: the United States, because that's where we are right now,
Speaker 1: what do you think that means for the next few months.
Speaker 1: I think unless we change our course radically, we are
Speaker 1: going to see at least a hundred thousand people a
Speaker 1: day infected. We'll see our hospitals begin to overflow as
Speaker 1: we are now, they'll be totally overflowing. We might need
Speaker 1: search capacities. We're gonna have to start opening new graveyards.
Speaker 1: It's going to be very, very bad unless we change
Speaker 1: our course. Now. Is it inevitable? It's not inevitable. We
Speaker 1: can carry out public health policies even now, now that
Speaker 1: we know lots more about the disease. We can institute
Speaker 1: very rapid tests that are universally available, that are given
Speaker 1: frequently to almost everybody. And we can start a program
Speaker 1: of what I call compensated homestay UH so that p
Speaker 1: bowl who are infected can stay home with their families.
Speaker 1: And I'm advocating paying them a lot to do that,
Speaker 1: five dollars a day for fourteen days with their whole family.
Speaker 1: I think that's enough for people to identify themselves as
Speaker 1: positive to have the public health authorities that are responsible
Speaker 1: for paying them be able to double check and to
Speaker 1: keep people home as a family for fourteen days, that's
Speaker 1: not too tough. And for those who can't don't have
Speaker 1: a home, the homeless and people in a nursing home,
Speaker 1: put them in hospitals and hotels and pay for it.
Speaker 1: And when you had it's a lot less. What do
Speaker 1: you make though, doctor Haseltine, of all the schools opening up.
Speaker 1: We had someone on yesterday who said, you know, kids
Speaker 1: are not super spreaders and that kind of making the
Speaker 1: case for opening up schools. What are your thoughts on that,
Speaker 1: especially with what you just told us in the last
Speaker 1: break about if we don't get things right, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be pretty horrible the next few months. I it is,
Speaker 1: and I we have to watch the situation carefully. There's
Speaker 1: a new report out that actually gives a very precise
Speaker 1: idea about who can transmit the virus to whom that is,
Speaker 1: the Indian government carried out an enormous project where they
Speaker 1: did contact tracing and then for each of the people
Speaker 1: who were contacted by somebody with COVID, they just looked
Speaker 1: to see whether they in fact were infected, and the
Speaker 1: results are very surprising in one sense and very not
Speaker 1: surprising another. At every age group. They looked at school age,
Speaker 1: the elementary school, the high school age above that, college age,
Speaker 1: and then people in the workforce and older people of
Speaker 1: one age let's say five to ten transmitted the virus
Speaker 1: most frequently two people of five to ten. People fifteen
Speaker 1: to twenty transmitted the virus two people who were fifteen
Speaker 1: to twenty, and the rates of transmission were pretty much
Speaker 1: constant across all of that spectrum. So children are not
Speaker 1: protected from giving the virus to one another, and they
Speaker 1: can give the virus to the rest of their family
Speaker 1: that will then give it to other people. So that
Speaker 1: when we are looking at zones that are read that
Speaker 1: being a high rate of infection, a high rate of
Speaker 1: say five or more people per hundred thousand infected, and
Speaker 1: there are many states are even fifty or more UH
Speaker 1: to put you in a red zone. There are many
Speaker 1: states in the US that are now bright red UH.
Speaker 1: It's at a serious question of whether you should send
Speaker 1: your kid back to school. If it was my child,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it. In the red zone. And much
Speaker 1: more of the US is turning red rather than green.
Speaker 1: It's not a good situation for children, and it's got
Speaker 1: to be very cognizant of what's happening. So dr in
Speaker 1: your book, My Lifelong Fight against Disease, from pollio and
Speaker 1: AIDS to COVID nineteen, what are the commonalities between those
Speaker 1: three and maybe what are some differences here? I'd say
Speaker 1: the first commonality is when it first appeared, our senior leadership,
Speaker 1: our president and senior administration, including our health officials, refused
Speaker 1: to acknowledge it as a serious problem. They even wrote
Speaker 1: a book about me and Bob Redfield, an ame. You'll
Speaker 1: be familiar with this epidemic. We're still around, we're still
Speaker 1: fighting diseases. But they wrote a book called the Myth
Speaker 1: of Heterosexual AIDS. If you could imagine that, a whole
Speaker 1: book attacking me and Bob Redfield called the Myth of
Speaker 1: Heterosexual aid Uh. Some of our administration is trying to
Speaker 1: wish this a waste. Fortunately, our public health officials are
Speaker 1: not as they did. So that's one commonality. A second
Speaker 1: run uh commonality is how the research are very strong.
Speaker 1: Biomedical research. It got engaged right away and started working
Speaker 1: on and trying to understand the disease and coming up
Speaker 1: with solutions and for age. It was long time in
Speaker 1: coming five six years and coming where combination chemotherapy has
Speaker 1: been able to uh save and extend the lives so
Speaker 1: there are normal lifespans of those who are infected. We
Speaker 1: can see an enormous effort from the biomedical community. I
Speaker 1: think there's something like sixty papers now published from the
Speaker 1: biomedical community around the world that is really good news.
Speaker 1: But whether or not it's going to be as effective
Speaker 1: as the drugs were in uh saving people's lives remains
Speaker 1: to be seen. It's an open question. The question on
Speaker 1: vaccines also remains open. We'll probably get a vaccine which
Speaker 1: is sort of like the flu vaccine, partially protective, uh,
Speaker 1: partially safe uh somewhat, but it won't stop that, it
Speaker 1: won't stop the pandemic. I don't think. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's going to be a a show stopper for this vaccine.
Speaker 1: I have to say, every time you're on, we always feel, man,
Speaker 1: we could just go another sixty minutes easily. So I
Speaker 1: do hope you'll come back real soon, and we'd love
Speaker 1: to talk a little bit more too about your book.
Speaker 1: Dr William Hasseltine, Thank you so much, always gracious with
Speaker 1: this time, chairman and president of Access Health International. Check
Speaker 1: out his book, It's at It as an e book
Speaker 1: and a hardcover coming out in February. My lifelong fight
Speaker 1: against disease from pollio and AIDS to COVID nineteen. He
Speaker 1: has seen so much. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, COVID plus decades of
Speaker 1: pollution are a nasty combination for Detroit, especially if your
Speaker 1: zip code happens to be four eight two one seven.
Speaker 1: It is one of the most polluted areas in Michigan,
Speaker 1: and this certainly is problematic when it comes to COVID nineteen.
Speaker 1: This story in the magazine this week soon hit news stands,
Speaker 1: also on the Bloomberg and online at Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1: Cynthia Coon's wrote it. She's US healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News.
Speaker 1: She joins us on the phone in New Jersey and Synthony, Cynthia,
Speaker 1: you know, Paul and I were talking. It feels like
Speaker 1: there's never any kind of upbeat story coming out when
Speaker 1: it when you're talking about Detroit, tell us about Teresa
Speaker 1: Landrum and tell us about the zip code for eight
Speaker 1: two on seven. What's going on? Yeah, thanks for having me, Carol.
Speaker 1: This was a story about a very small part of Detroit.
Speaker 1: It's only a little more than two miles, but it's
Speaker 1: surrounded by more than two dozen industrial companies and polluting
Speaker 1: facilities that have been making the air, contributing to poor
Speaker 1: air quality in this one small section of Detroit and
Speaker 1: other parts of Detroit. Obviously, pollution doesn't know borders for years, decades,
Speaker 1: and Teresa actually has been fighting these companies for decades.
Speaker 1: She started her work in what's known as the environmental
Speaker 1: justice movement in the late in eighteen nineties, and that
Speaker 1: was back to when Detroit Salt was using explosives that
Speaker 1: were leading cracks in people's houses and their driveways and
Speaker 1: their foundations. And that was her first environmental justice battle.
Speaker 1: But through the years she's come up against any number
Speaker 1: of companies. She has dealt with HERMIT application. She has
Speaker 1: tried to stop these companies from increasing pollution. And of course,
Speaker 1: earlier this year, COVID comes to her community and from
Speaker 1: what she could see and from all the people she
Speaker 1: introduced me to, it had a pretty devastating effect in
Speaker 1: terms of people getting very sick when they got the virus. So,
Speaker 1: since you this is a fantastic article, great reporting, and
Speaker 1: you know in this article is that this map that
Speaker 1: you that you refer to is literally the zip code
Speaker 1: is surrounded by a dozen or more factories. I mean
Speaker 1: it just they can't escape, it seems like. And so
Speaker 1: I wonder, you know, and that led obviously to the
Speaker 1: pollution issue that she's been fighting. How has COVID impacted
Speaker 1: this community. The interesting thing is, not only does Treason
Speaker 1: know a lot of people who have gotten COVID, but
Speaker 1: we all know there are a lot of reasons why
Speaker 1: someone might contract COVID. It could have to do with
Speaker 1: how much it was circulating in the community before there
Speaker 1: was a shutdown, or jobs people do and so on
Speaker 1: and so forth. But what's interesting about the people she
Speaker 1: introduced me to was the severity of their cases. And
Speaker 1: so when I would talk to people who live in
Speaker 1: for a tow and seven, they would talk about weeks
Speaker 1: of pneumonia or I talked to one woman who still
Speaker 1: was trying to catch her brass months after being discharged
Speaker 1: from the hospital and told me that to this day,
Speaker 1: which is even months later than when I first spoke
Speaker 1: to her. She still can't go on her five mile walks.
Speaker 1: She can only walk about half a mile because it
Speaker 1: impacted her so much from a respiratory point of view.
Speaker 1: And so we started with the story of Landrum's niece,
Speaker 1: who is this woman, Danielle Hall, who had spent an
Speaker 1: enormous amount of time both in the hospital as well
Speaker 1: as in nursing home learning how to walk again, and
Speaker 1: just really use this to explore this idea that what
Speaker 1: we do understand is some research has come out early
Speaker 1: research showing that in exposure to pollutants does increase the
Speaker 1: number of deaths in a given area. That's been, that's been,
Speaker 1: that's starting to be shown in scientific research papers. But
Speaker 1: then the question is also could people's COVID cases actually
Speaker 1: be worse because their lungs are compromised by the time
Speaker 1: they get exposed to the virus. There were so many
Speaker 1: like I'm shaking my head. I know you can't see
Speaker 1: it on radio and you can't see it since Polkan
Speaker 1: guess we're on Nexian video conferencing. But like in your
Speaker 1: story you talk about um, I guess it was. In January, A. K.
Speaker 1: Steel filed an application requesting permission to triple the plants
Speaker 1: lead in manganese excuse me emissions. I guess what I
Speaker 1: can't get my head around is that I keep thinking
Speaker 1: we're in a world where we're trying to improve systems
Speaker 1: and prevent you know, more impacts on our climate, and
Speaker 1: yet we know that that's not happening. Yeah, the environmental
Speaker 1: regulator actually gave us the data said that in the
Speaker 1: past decade they approved three thousand, five hundred eighties six
Speaker 1: applications and denied eighteen. And we asked for those numbers
Speaker 1: because a state representative who also had COVID, who also
Speaker 1: grew up he lived, which is the big thoroughfare that
Speaker 1: a lot of the industrial like trucks travel through and
Speaker 1: is cut through the community. He also had said, you know,
Speaker 1: we go to these permit hearings. We go to we
Speaker 1: we the people communicate that this is a problem for them.
Speaker 1: People say that we can't kick on more pollution. And
Speaker 1: these are these are companies that are across the streets,
Speaker 1: sometimes from playgrounds and schools, and yet they still get approved.
Speaker 1: And so the question becomes how hard can it be?
Speaker 1: And there really are quite teams of lawyers who are
Speaker 1: trying to help these community members. But it's it's interesting.
Speaker 1: One of the conversations I have with Theresa, she said,
Speaker 1: it's very it's really challenging because the companies come in
Speaker 1: that with with reams of documents and experts using language
Speaker 1: that's very highly scientific that an average community member you
Speaker 1: and I wouldn't know. We would have to get we'd
Speaker 1: have to get up to speed on parts for trillion
Speaker 1: and things that are just very much the lingo of
Speaker 1: that world. But it's very hard for community members to say, Okay,
Speaker 1: wait a second. What you're actually saying here is this
Speaker 1: is going to spe more let into the air across
Speaker 1: the street from where my child goes to school, which
Speaker 1: is what seems to happen happening. So, but there's very
Speaker 1: interesting movement on the other side. So environmental justice lawyers
Speaker 1: filed the civil rights complaint earlier this year, saying that
Speaker 1: you know, this is systemic racism and action, that this
Speaker 1: is a community that's predominantly a minority community. Was there
Speaker 1: was an approval of a hazardous waste facility, a huge expansion,
Speaker 1: and the lawyers came out and said, no, this is
Speaker 1: a problem, and this is a civil rights issue. And
Speaker 1: people shouldn't have to breathe this air deal with the
Speaker 1: effects of this pollution disproportionately. That's what I was lived.
Speaker 1: I was thinking, you know, and Paul, I'm listening you know,
Speaker 1: to Cynthia, this whole idea of like, do we have
Speaker 1: a right to have clean air, fresh air as a
Speaker 1: citizen of this country. Yeah, it's interesting, And Cynthia, you
Speaker 1: know it's there's a forward plant right across the street,
Speaker 1: isn't there. Yeah, So so wherever you look, that's a
Speaker 1: massive forward complex actually, and it's actually now operating, not
Speaker 1: quite like it used to be. Right. It used to
Speaker 1: employ more than a hundred thousand people, and it's hey day,
Speaker 1: and I think it was like the nineteen thirties, but
Speaker 1: now it's it's just much smaller. I mean, obviously a
Speaker 1: lot of this has turned to automation. But there while
Speaker 1: certain plants maybe have down scale, then certain industry has
Speaker 1: moved away, there's other industry that's obviously for me, like
Speaker 1: wastewater treatment and obviously hazardous waste facilities and power stations
Speaker 1: and cement plants. And you just don't really take into
Speaker 1: until you stop and really think and look at this.
Speaker 1: You don't think about the totality of things that go
Speaker 1: into say making a car, and how many parts might
Speaker 1: be made right nearby, and that's how you end up
Speaker 1: with these sort of clusters of industry. And once upon
Speaker 1: a time this was, you know, a great place to
Speaker 1: live because there were jobs. But now there aren't nearly
Speaker 1: as many jobs as there used to be. So that's
Speaker 1: not necessarily benefiting anyone either. But no one should have,
Speaker 1: you know, their employment tied to breathing air that is substandard. Hey, Cynthia,
Speaker 1: just quickly thirty seconds here, where's Congress or lawmakers on this?
Speaker 1: They've got to know about it. So Congress did actually
Speaker 1: bring in one of the scientists I spoke to who
Speaker 1: did a study very early on showing that exposure to
Speaker 1: pollution had um increased the death rate in certain communities.
Speaker 1: UM and Corey Booker also had brought this UM scientists
Speaker 1: on into like a big town hall about this topic.
Speaker 1: So I think this kind of you know, I think
Speaker 1: there is some movement. I think there are some people
Speaker 1: in Congress who really believe in this and really cares.
Speaker 1: So there is a potential. The wheels are are turning,
Speaker 1: so yeah, there's a possibility for change. Amazing. It's a mustreet.
Speaker 1: I'll put it on Twitter. It'll be in the magazine
Speaker 1: this week as well. Cittia Coon's You're the best US
Speaker 1: healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. All Right, everybody, it's
Speaker 1: twelve days and I was looking for my hourly count.
Speaker 1: I lost my clock. Oh here it is twelve hours,
Speaker 1: twelve days, nine hours, fifty seven minutes, forty six seconds
Speaker 1: until the election. We kicked off the day, Paul today
Speaker 1: with some news from White House Chief of Staff Mark
Speaker 1: Meadows saying on Fox at the goal in talks with
Speaker 1: how speaker Nancy Pelosi is a deal on coronavirus relief
Speaker 1: packages within the next forty eight hours. So we'll see
Speaker 1: what happens. Someone who is watching this very closely, Eric Wasson,
Speaker 1: he is congressional reporter at Bloomberg News. He's on the
Speaker 1: phone from Washington, d C. So, okay, here we are
Speaker 1: less than two weeks away. Um TikTok. I thought Nancy
Speaker 1: Pelosi had a deadline, Eric, for yesterday to get this done. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that deadline obviously wasn't a very hard one. She had
Speaker 1: clarified at something along the way that it was just
Speaker 1: that she had to see people put their card more
Speaker 1: over their cards on the table. Of sounds like there
Speaker 1: has been some similar progress on things like the liability
Speaker 1: protection for companies. There could be a trade off there
Speaker 1: where a few strength and workplace protections and companies would
Speaker 1: be able to achieve some kind of legal defense over
Speaker 1: their COVID procedures. But overall, big, big issues like state
Speaker 1: and local aid. Uh, this is a Democratic push to
Speaker 1: to get five billion dollars to stay in local governments
Speaker 1: that lost revenue during the lockdowns. There's still some some
Speaker 1: issues going on. So Meadows did put another forty eight
Speaker 1: hour deadline on it today here in the Capitol. He
Speaker 1: came out of the lunch from that up and says
Speaker 1: two or three days. So that sound like a little
Speaker 1: bit more lit the room there. Um. But you know,
Speaker 1: we're seeing more and more of this possibility that they
Speaker 1: come to it. You know, maybe even at NAPSID before
Speaker 1: the election. Gives the president something to talk about the
Speaker 1: head of the election and then actually do the vote
Speaker 1: for the election. So a lot of things are slipping here,
Speaker 1: but it does look like they're there. May be a
Speaker 1: possibility of the deal, if not before the election, then
Speaker 1: then into the Lamb duck session, which is when Congress
Speaker 1: comes back after uh November three. So, Eric, I have
Speaker 1: to admit the inner workings of Washington and billmaking often
Speaker 1: confused me, but this one really confuses me. I think
Speaker 1: I've you did not. You're obviously not a student of
Speaker 1: Schoolhouse Rock. I you know, I am, I remember it clearly,
Speaker 1: but it just doesn't seem to happen that smoothly. Um So,
Speaker 1: But so, Eric, we have a president who wants stimulus.
Speaker 1: We have the Democrats who want stimulus, yet the Senate
Speaker 1: Republicans do not. Do I have that right? And if so,
Speaker 1: what do you think the strategies of the Senate Republicans here?
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that they don't want stimulus. Thing that
Speaker 1: they put forward to bills today that they voted on
Speaker 1: five billion dollars, you know, as much of a comic
Speaker 1: point that is, you know, wasn't chump changed before this
Speaker 1: COVID uh pandemic came about. Where we've seen three chillion
Speaker 1: dollars spent so far, but they just don't see the
Speaker 1: level of the two trillion dollar level that the White
Speaker 1: House and pelosity you're talking about now, you just have
Speaker 1: different incentives. I think at this point there may be
Speaker 1: some sense among someone Senate Republicans that Trump maybe a
Speaker 1: gunner anyhow, and they're looking at what their Republican party
Speaker 1: will be under a Biden administration, where they may reclaim
Speaker 1: the deficit hawk mantle. So I think we're seeing a
Speaker 1: lot of that those previously repressed deficit hawk concerns re
Speaker 1: emerging here. Uh. You know, Democrats say, well that they're
Speaker 1: going to just posture that way because they want to
Speaker 1: stimy Biden. But you know the digit you pe will
Speaker 1: if Trump, lucyld be looking for a new identity, and
Speaker 1: it may be the old identity of the Paul Ryan Party,
Speaker 1: which was focused on the deficit. Well that's what I
Speaker 1: wanted to ask you about because I was listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio earlier this morning and uh, Brown professor, political
Speaker 1: science professor Wendy Schiller just talking about Mitch McConnell, and
Speaker 1: you know, his lack of support for more stimulus. Is
Speaker 1: it that he's already looking to the next mid term
Speaker 1: elections and you know how they want to position the
Speaker 1: Republicans and maybe being able to say Hey, listen, we
Speaker 1: didn't support the wild stimulus spending that we maybe didn't
Speaker 1: really need. Is that Is that what he's playing at
Speaker 1: right now? I think so. They're always looking down the field.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not just in the term elections you're
Speaker 1: looking at primaries. You're also looking at a number of
Speaker 1: senators who are likely to run for president again, whether
Speaker 1: it's Ted Cruz, your Market Ruby, or others who want
Speaker 1: to establish that brand as being concerned about the deficit.
Speaker 1: Now that being said, there are certainly vulnerable Republican senators,
Speaker 1: certainly a handful like Court Gardner in Colorado, Susan Crowllins
Speaker 1: and Maine who very much would like to see a
Speaker 1: big package voted on before the election. They are are
Speaker 1: really cleaning to life here as far as their political careers.
Speaker 1: So we see these maneuvers in the Senate, this sort
Speaker 1: of smaller bill brought up to give them some sense
Speaker 1: that they're doing something, and talk of possibly a deal
Speaker 1: being announced now if we get a deal, and then
Speaker 1: they say they're gonna go on the Senate after the election. Uh,
Speaker 1: that's gonna be kind of interesting. We've been exploring with
Speaker 1: senators uh today about that, and you know, it really
Speaker 1: is up in the end because a lot of times
Speaker 1: piplically well out to the lame duck, everyone will be
Speaker 1: politically unfettered. They'll be able to make these difficult votes
Speaker 1: that otherwise would be uh, you know, politically painful. But uh,
Speaker 1: you know, to start to a veteran like Roy Blunt
Speaker 1: at Missouri, he said, you know, I don't think so.
Speaker 1: I think it's now or never. Eric, you mentioned some
Speaker 1: vulnerable UM senators UM and folks in Congress. I mean,
Speaker 1: what's the feeling in Washington about the Senate? Is there
Speaker 1: a real risk from the Republican perspective that it does
Speaker 1: the power does shift to the Democrats. I think so. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that the Republicans are are you know that
Speaker 1: McConnell keeps saying fifty fifty proposition. I think it's more
Speaker 1: likely than not it does shift. Uh, there's a real
Speaker 1: scramble and everything can break a different way. But I
Speaker 1: think one of the reasons we saw a real uh
Speaker 1: you know, rush to do them Tony Barrett nomination. We
Speaker 1: even had Lindsay Graham call on the hot mic I believe, saying,
Speaker 1: you know, doing this because as you guys could take
Speaker 1: over soon. So you know that that turns around here.
Speaker 1: See see that. Uh you know, Trump is in trouble. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, and unless the polls were as wrong as
Speaker 1: they were or even more wrong than they weren't twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: that's where this is going. So there is a bit
Speaker 1: of a posturing going on there as well. On the
Speaker 1: Senate side. Any more surprises that you think could potentially
Speaker 1: come out of the halls, the hallowed halls of the
Speaker 1: Capitol before the election. Just got about forty five seconds here, Eric, Well,
Speaker 1: I mean we're talking about the stimulus see itself. I mean,
Speaker 1: if that yes, but now that could be a lifeline
Speaker 1: to President Trump from Nancy Pelosi as Wall people. So
Speaker 1: whether that gives him a couple of points up, especially
Speaker 1: in crucial states like North Carolina or Pennsylvania, your Iowa,
Speaker 1: or others like Georgia where he's even uh facing a
Speaker 1: tough race. Uh, you know, that could be uh a
Speaker 1: very interesting development and there could be a lot of
Speaker 1: finger pointing if that ended up helping the front interesting times. Hey, Eric,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, Really appreciate the update and clarity.
Speaker 1: Eric wess And He's congressional reporter at Bloomberg News on
Speaker 1: the phone from Washington, d C. Brother a journal Now,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no honey, please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the riding drivel let me. I want to drive,
Speaker 1: Just drive baby, the questions try This is the drive
Speaker 1: to the Globe community. Thanks well, run on Bloomberg Radio. Well,
Speaker 1: the election is thirteen days away and investors trying to
Speaker 1: get a sense of how do I play this? If
Speaker 1: A Biden wins, what does that mean for my portfolio?
Speaker 1: President Trump wins? What does it mean? How do I
Speaker 1: play it? Our next guest says, don't sweat it. Barry James,
Speaker 1: portfolio manager James Investment Research. He joined us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Alpha, Ohio. Barry, thanks much for joining us here.
Speaker 1: I kind of get a sense from your research. They
Speaker 1: are saying, don't get too worried about elections, think about
Speaker 1: your market, think of longer term, think about the structure
Speaker 1: of your portfolio. That's exactly right. Um. You know, we
Speaker 1: we have a special report we put out called Presidential Investing,
Speaker 1: Mining for Fool's Gold. It's available on our website James
Speaker 1: Funds dot com. But the research that we did, going
Speaker 1: back for years and years and years find found that
Speaker 1: you can't really tell what's going to happen. We had
Speaker 1: some folks, uh like Peter Thield, thought that with the
Speaker 1: Obama things weren't going to do very well, and of
Speaker 1: course we had a powerful bull market, and then Mark
Speaker 1: cuban In said Trump presidency stocks would plunge and bond
Speaker 1: market capsize, and uh, it's done just the opposite, about
Speaker 1: twelve percent annualized returns in in stocks and long term bonds. Um,
Speaker 1: you know since he was inaugurated. So um, it's really
Speaker 1: dangerous and a lot of behavioral science has found the
Speaker 1: same thing. People get too aggressive when their people are
Speaker 1: are in office, and they get too conservative when they're not.
Speaker 1: But the market goes up. There's been eight Republicans and
Speaker 1: seven Democrats since n and guess what, the market has
Speaker 1: gone up two out of every you know, three years.
Speaker 1: So um, don't sweat it. It's what I say, just
Speaker 1: follow your plan. Well, okay, so there's presidential changeovers or
Speaker 1: there's you know, a second term, and then there's blue
Speaker 1: waves or red waves. And I do wonder how that, though,
Speaker 1: could impact the investment climate. Barry, Well, you're absolutely right. Um.
Speaker 1: We we saw previously when we had a red wave
Speaker 1: if you will. That it did have a boost even
Speaker 1: when uh, you know President Clinton and the Republicans took
Speaker 1: over the House, uh and the Senate. Um. That was
Speaker 1: a positive thing because he wasn't a big spender to
Speaker 1: begin with, and positive things then took place. So uh, yes,
Speaker 1: it can work out really well. Uh. And you know
Speaker 1: if we don't, if we don't get crazy and some
Speaker 1: of our ideas, um, then it should work. That the
Speaker 1: key and key ingredient on money is that it's like water.
Speaker 1: It follows the path of least resistance. So the more
Speaker 1: barriers you put up, the more it's going to go
Speaker 1: offshore again. And we saw when you took those down,
Speaker 1: we had trillions of dollars come back to the States. Well, okay,
Speaker 1: when you say, if we don't get crazy, there's maybe
Speaker 1: what you see is crazy and what others see is crazy.
Speaker 1: And there's listen, you know, I hope we all come
Speaker 1: out of this um past six or seven months a
Speaker 1: lot smart, smarter, and wiser, and that it's not just
Speaker 1: a focus on Wall Street like the White House seems
Speaker 1: to have. That we need to think of the bigger,
Speaker 1: broader public. And you know we did, Paul and I
Speaker 1: did a story this week that if we took you know,
Speaker 1: racism out of our society, you know, we're talking about
Speaker 1: a sixteen trillion I think it was pion you know,
Speaker 1: boost to you know, the global economy or or or
Speaker 1: are you know. So there's a cost by us not
Speaker 1: looking at the entire population. So what kind of crazy popular,
Speaker 1: you know, crazy policies are you focusing on? If we
Speaker 1: look at regulations, Um, you know, the reduction and regulations
Speaker 1: has meant hundreds of billions of dollars in additional money
Speaker 1: into the working man's pocket. So that would be one
Speaker 1: thing if if if things go you know, uh, overboard
Speaker 1: in one direction in terms of regulations and tax cuts. Historically,
Speaker 1: I looked at all the tax cuts, we did the
Speaker 1: research on that, and the bottom line is the working
Speaker 1: man and woman they see their their wages accelerated at
Speaker 1: a faster pace. Uh. It's not to say that if
Speaker 1: taxes go up, they won't rise, but nevertheless, those tax
Speaker 1: cuts work that way. And the one dirty secret about
Speaker 1: that is revenues went up. We had the highest revenues
Speaker 1: ever from taxes with a tax cut. Uh. And that's
Speaker 1: because of economic growth. So things that support economic growth
Speaker 1: support you know, the free markets are are key ingredients
Speaker 1: to having our economy continue to grow and be the
Speaker 1: best place to be in the world. So where do
Speaker 1: you think, I mean, you know, there's been this pushpool
Speaker 1: between the folks that are just saying I'm gonna sit
Speaker 1: on my big tech stocks and they've been the growth
Speaker 1: driver's great top line growth, and others that are saying,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm maybe I'm prepared to look to the
Speaker 1: other side of this pandemic economic growth and I can
Speaker 1: find some real value in some of the cyclical names
Speaker 1: of the industrial names. How do you kind of fall
Speaker 1: out in that discussion. Yes, Um, there's about a difference
Speaker 1: in returns between value and growth this year, so you're
Speaker 1: right on. Unfortunately, the value trap is just that right now,
Speaker 1: it's it's got, it's got no no momentum whatsoever. UM.
Speaker 1: I would say for the moment, stay on the yellow
Speaker 1: brick road, which has been what has been working. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, the tech area. There will be a time,
Speaker 1: especially if we see more of these antitrust um you
Speaker 1: know moves, UM, where the big tech may may take
Speaker 1: a big pause. And it very well could be that
Speaker 1: some of the new policies would really really be beneficial
Speaker 1: to some all uh two small companies. Um. And that's
Speaker 1: the area that's been totally ignored and maybe rightfully so
Speaker 1: up to this point. But you know, come come a
Speaker 1: new uh administration or whatever, it could be really positive
Speaker 1: in that area. I mean, it's stimulus necessary in your
Speaker 1: in your view, berry is what I'm sorry, stimulus another
Speaker 1: round of virus stimulus. Yeah, yeah, I mean I talked
Speaker 1: to folks here locally and um, you know, the car's
Speaker 1: broken down or you know, something in the house is
Speaker 1: broken and uh, you know they don't they don't have
Speaker 1: a job, and you know, the jobless claims are reduced,
Speaker 1: so they need the money. Uh. And I don't you
Speaker 1: know their businesses too, obviously, the hospitality and and the like. Um,
Speaker 1: and the folks that I talked to, and they're are
Speaker 1: pretty desperate, um, you know, to try to stay alive
Speaker 1: and keep their their folks being paid. So there's definitely
Speaker 1: a need for it. And you know, whether it happens
Speaker 1: now or later, I think something will happen. Alright, one
Speaker 1: quick name thirty seconds. What's what are you looking at
Speaker 1: right now? Well, I like Cadence Design. They just came
Speaker 1: out with earnings yesterday and they're spectacular. They beat the earnings,
Speaker 1: they just raised their growth, the growth numbers. They're really
Speaker 1: doing quite well in China, great margins, not a lot
Speaker 1: of competition. Uh. They're making the tools and software that
Speaker 1: under you know, undergird the UH semiconductor industry. So there
Speaker 1: are money making machine right now and UH I think
Speaker 1: that's likely to continue. Yes, they're up, but don't let that.
Speaker 1: Don't let that dissuade you. You You can only buy the
Speaker 1: top one since I've been told many times. Yeah, they're
Speaker 1: up about six this year, so they've definitely been on
Speaker 1: quite a run. Um. Good to get some time with you, Barry.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Barry James, portfolio manager at the
Speaker 1: Ohio based James Investment Research, on the phone from Alpha, Ohio.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much. Listening to Bloomberg Business Week, download the
Speaker 1: podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and
Speaker 1: be sure to check out our daily radio show at
Speaker 1: two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. And be sure to
Speaker 1: watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News