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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: I will not mince words. This is a required read

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Speaker 2: for anybody inside the Beltway this morning. It is a

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Speaker 2: book from a time ago. Paul, you walked around because

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Speaker 2: you were cool, because Douglaserwin had a book with a

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Speaker 2: sailboat on the cover as a light blue book was

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Speaker 2: against the tide, and it was absolutely definitive. I read

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Speaker 2: every word of it, and we're thrilled that Professor Irwin

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Speaker 2: could join us in Dartmouth today. Let me just get

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Speaker 2: out of the way. Dougarr won a cup of coffee

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Speaker 2: with a president this morning as he prepares the State

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Speaker 2: of the Union. What would be your counsel to President Trump.

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Speaker 3: I don't think you'd want to hear anything i'd have

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Speaker 3: to say. I'd say the Supreme Court gave him a hit,

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Speaker 3: him a favor by trying to put these tariffs on pause.

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Speaker 3: But of course presidents just reimposed the similar tariffs using

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Speaker 3: different authority. So it was a very important decision. It

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Speaker 3: was a very historic one, but just shunted the president

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Speaker 3: to using different statutory authorities to levy tariffs, and he's

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Speaker 3: going to move forward with them.

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Speaker 2: Will we see a legal battle of these new tariffs,

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Speaker 2: Claudius sum it's away from her remit, which is monetary economics.

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Speaker 2: But Professor Irwin, do you just assume further legal battles

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Speaker 2: about ten percent or fifteen percent, one twenty whatever, two

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Speaker 2: thirty this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of numbers are being thrown around in

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Speaker 3: terms of the statutes. Yeah, so the new terroffs, which

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Speaker 3: are ten percent, he's promised fifteen percent, but they haven't

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Speaker 3: issued the executive order on that quite yet. Those will

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Speaker 3: probably be subject to legal challenge, and that's because the

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Speaker 3: statute allows for the president to impose tariffs in the

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Speaker 3: cases of a balance of payments, deficit, or disequilibrium, and

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Speaker 3: it's not clear that in an era of floating exchange grates,

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Speaker 3: whether it's actually a thing exists anymore. Now. The other

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Speaker 3: side is that the terrofts can only be in effect

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Speaker 3: for one hundred and fifty days and then require congressional approval.

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Speaker 3: So there's a lot of uncertainty about how this is

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Speaker 3: going to play out over the next couple months.

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Speaker 1: Professor I guess most of are viewing and listening to

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Speaker 1: the audience what they know about teriffs. They've learned over

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Speaker 1: the last six seven eight years, which is just massive

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Speaker 1: tariffs on all types of countries, all types of products

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Speaker 1: across the board. But typically, how are tariffs historically used

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Speaker 1: and how can they be most useful?

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Speaker 3: Well, that's really why this administration marks such a sharp

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Speaker 3: break from what we've seen in terms of historical experience.

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Speaker 3: You know, you've probably mentioned smooth Holly on the air

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Speaker 3: over the past couple of years before that actually smoothly itself.

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Speaker 3: Congress determined tariffs. It's part of the legislative power of

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Speaker 3: tax It's in Article one, section eight of the Constitution.

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Speaker 3: It was basically Congress's decision what to do. Then powers

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Speaker 3: began delegated, began being delegated to the president and we

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Speaker 3: entered the era after World War Two of the president

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Speaker 3: negotiating trade rooms to reduce tariffs. And the tariffs have

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Speaker 3: been sort of on a one way path down since

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Speaker 3: World War Two. And that's when a Trump and also

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Speaker 3: when the start and that the same authority starts being

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Speaker 3: used to increase terrance once again across different products, across

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Speaker 3: different countries in all manner of way.

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Speaker 2: Worldwide and across the nation. This morning, Douglas Irwin of

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Speaker 2: Dartmouth College, he is our definitive expert on trade. Only

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Speaker 2: standing with him is Barry Keen Green of Berkeley. We'll

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Speaker 2: get Professor Ike agreen on in a bid out with

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Speaker 2: his new book, Paul Sweeney with Professor Irwin.

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Speaker 1: Professor. We had the New York Fed come out with

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Speaker 1: a report, I guess a week or so ago that said,

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Speaker 1: you know, ninety percent ish of the tariffs have been

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Speaker 1: born by the American economy, either importers, companies, and even consumers. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the White House pushing back on that. Who who pays

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Speaker 1: really at the end of the day for tariffs.

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Speaker 3: Well, the importer in the US actually writes the check,

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Speaker 3: but then they pass it on to whoever they're selling

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Speaker 3: the products too, and it sort of goes along the

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Speaker 3: value chain. That Federal reserve, that FED study, it's been

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Speaker 3: sort of erupted that finding that ninety percent of the

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Speaker 3: tariffs get passed through to domestic purchasers, either final consumers

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Speaker 3: or businesses along the way. That's been confirmed by you know,

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Speaker 3: at least half a dozen other studies. So study after

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Speaker 3: study has sort of consistently shown that both for the

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Speaker 3: Trump first term tariffs as well as these most recent ones.

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Speaker 2: Medline Marshall has a fabulous video out at the Wall

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Speaker 2: Street Journal. I put it out about a week ago, folks.

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Speaker 2: I'll redo that with the academic input of Douglas Irwin.

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Speaker 2: Doug Ears three hours of trade policy, revenue, restriction, reciprocity.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to acquisit the end of the interview,

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Speaker 2: but Professor Erwin, they're very chronological, and what I find

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Speaker 2: interesting is the restriction using high tariffs to restrict the

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Speaker 2: imports of McKinley in post Civil War America. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they were all shown the door in the voting in

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Speaker 2: eighteen ninety. The Republicans, including McKinley, basically lost their jobs.

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Speaker 2: Do you anticipate that in November a McKinley eighteen ninety

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Speaker 2: kind of vote by America.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's a very interesting historical observation, and you're right

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Speaker 3: it does have some residents for today. So I mentioned

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Speaker 3: the new statutory authority that the president's levy these tariffs.

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Speaker 3: After one hundred and fifty days, he might have to

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Speaker 3: ask Congress to re up those tariffs. Does Congress want

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Speaker 3: to vote for higher tariffs in the summer before midterm elections,

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Speaker 3: when Republicans are already divided over trade policy. I don't

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Speaker 3: think so. So it leads into the affordability ARECTA and prices,

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Speaker 3: and so I think tariffs could be toxic come this fall.

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Speaker 2: What should China do? There's a lot of the press

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Speaker 2: today about how China responds. I guess the president is

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Speaker 2: going to maybe Doug Irwin's going to carry the president's

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Speaker 2: luggage to chick could do that, I can see it.

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Speaker 2: He could stay in Hong Kong and Shanghai rather at

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Speaker 2: the Peace Hotel where Henry Kissinger stayed. Yep, I mean

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Speaker 2: it could do that, Professor Irwin. If you to go

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Speaker 2: to China with the president, how do you discuss this

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Speaker 2: with Beijing and how do they respond?

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Speaker 3: Well? I think what Beijing is looking for is stability

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Speaker 3: in the bilateral relationship, and that's exactly what we don't

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Speaker 3: have at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: We do have special tariffs on China under a different

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Speaker 3: provision of trade law, and those can be subject to negotiation.

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Speaker 3: But we're sort of in this uneasy truce with Beijing

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Speaker 3: about they're not going to restrict rare earths and we're

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Speaker 3: not going to impose further tariffs. How we move out

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Speaker 3: of that remains to be seen, and it really depends

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Speaker 3: on what the administration has in mind. And then Beijing,

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Speaker 3: I think, is holding its cards close to his chest

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Speaker 3: and probably won't do much until it sees what the

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Speaker 3: administration wants.

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Speaker 1: Professor. One of the I guess the results of the

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court decision last week is maybe some companies, some

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Speaker 1: individuals may want to get some rebates of the tariffs

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Speaker 1: that they've incurred in. Just today, FedEx sues the United

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Speaker 1: States to get full refund of emergency tariffs after Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court ruling. Do we have any idea how that process

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Speaker 1: would work.

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Speaker 3: We have no idea at the moment. So the administration

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Speaker 3: has promised that there will be rebates, but they could

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Speaker 3: be slow walked, and that's why I think we'll see

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Speaker 3: lawsuits to try to accelerate the process. It could take

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Speaker 3: months or even years. Doesn't necessarily have to take that long,

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Speaker 3: but it's clear the administration is reluctant to give up

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Speaker 3: that revenue and no processes identified at least as far

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Speaker 3: as I know, about what the process will be to

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Speaker 3: adjudicate all those claims for the revenue that is amounting

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Speaker 3: to tens of billions of dollars to going back to

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Speaker 3: American businesses that imported foreign goods.

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Speaker 2: Come on, Blache, Flower is gonna say, Dougger and David,

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Speaker 2: but Dartmouth just print more debt. I mean, do we

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Speaker 2: need that revenue? I mean I haven't seen a clear

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Speaker 2: case that we must must, must have the revenue. The

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Speaker 2: first of your.

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Speaker 3: Three rs, well, you're right that the Trump administration has

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Speaker 3: used all three of those ours, and revenue has been

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Speaker 3: important one. And they certainly made the case for the

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Speaker 3: teriffs on the revenue grounds. But they're legally obligated I

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Speaker 3: think to turn it back. But the question is it's

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Speaker 3: not a matter of government have the money, but can

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Speaker 3: they go back through the records and isolate those who

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Speaker 3: those firms that actually paid the tariffs in the first place.

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Speaker 2: The continuum of your Against the Tide, folks, I can't

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Speaker 2: emphasize enough. It was like Daniel Jurgen's Surprise. Even if

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Speaker 2: you didn't read it, you walked around with it because

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Speaker 2: it was cool. You had to be cool. So Doug

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Speaker 2: Irwin's Against the Tides. The absolute foundation of your book

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Speaker 2: is Robert Solo. Technology, Technology comes to the rescue? Is

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Speaker 2: America expands and that do you just assume our international

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Speaker 2: trade tensions, Doug Irwin will get fixed by further technology

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Speaker 2: leadership in America.

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Speaker 3: I think the two are inter related. I think that

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Speaker 3: the US leadership in technology and other matters gets disrupted

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Speaker 3: with all these trade frictions across countries and the tariffs

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Speaker 3: that are going up and down and can change on

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Speaker 3: a whim. So trade disrupts that process of spreading technology

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Speaker 3: around the world. It inhibits our ability to export to

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Speaker 3: other countries because there's implicit retaliation against the US, and

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Speaker 3: it disrupts all the business relationships that are needed to

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Speaker 3: provide the funds for more R and D. So it's

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Speaker 3: not good for our technological development. But at the same time,

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Speaker 3: technology does march to its own dramma to some extent

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Speaker 3: and will continue to move forward regardless of what is

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Speaker 3: happening on the trade front.

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Speaker 1: Professors, is it reasonable to assume that this Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: decision may embold in Congress to try to reassert some

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Speaker 1: of its authority over tariff policy.

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Speaker 3: Well, it certainly was a wake up call, and some

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Speaker 3: of the justices really did call out Congress and not

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Speaker 3: so many words, saying you have to step up. It's

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Speaker 3: really your responsibility on the Constitution to adjudicate and oversee

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Speaker 3: trade policy. Question is whether they'll do it under this administration.

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Speaker 3: I think act with great trepidation in trying to pull

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Speaker 3: back some of the powers it's delegated to the president.

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Speaker 3: But I think there is a medium term agenda for

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Speaker 3: future Congresses and future administrations to write rethink US trade

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Speaker 3: law and ensure that we don't go through the mess

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Speaker 3: in the model that we've gone through over the past year.

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Speaker 1: Professor, is the concept of free trade? Is that still

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Speaker 1: relevant in today's global economy?

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Speaker 3: I think it always remains relevant to some extent. Now,

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Speaker 3: free trade doesn't mean absolutely no barriers and no interventions whatsoever,

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Speaker 3: but I think we do have to distinguish and former

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Speaker 3: Vice President Mike Pence has sort of made this clear

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Speaker 3: that between you know, what he's called for is free

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Speaker 3: trade with free nations, and we have to think about

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Speaker 3: trade as part of our alliance system, as a way

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Speaker 3: of working with allies and then separating out those countries

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Speaker 3: that are adversaries and we don't want to treat them

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Speaker 3: the same in terms of our trade policy because that's

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Speaker 3: an extension of our foreign policy.

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Speaker 2: Oh that's a really good point here. We're going to

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Speaker 2: have to leave here in a big Professor Irwin, off

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Speaker 2: of your wonderful article and essay, I should say in

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Speaker 2: the Economist here in the last a couple of days,

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Speaker 2: can you explain while we're going after Canada and not China.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I know that I still call him Governor

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Speaker 2: Kearney from the Bank of England, Mark Kearney, good morning

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Speaker 2: and everyone up in Ottawa, Doug Irwin. Why are we

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Speaker 2: going after Canada when we have true adversaries that we're

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Speaker 2: trading with.

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Speaker 3: That's a great question. Unfortunately, I'm giving a talk in

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Speaker 3: Canada about two weeks, so I have to think this

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Speaker 3: through for our Canadian friends.

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Speaker 2: Careful, you may lose your teeth.

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Speaker 3: Yes, high sticking off the cocktail the Dartmouth hockey team

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Speaker 3: about how they prevent such things happen from happening. But

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Speaker 3: you know, I don't know whether it's a personal relationship

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Speaker 3: that Donald Trump didn't forage with Justin Trudeau, whether there's

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Speaker 3: some real estate deals that went bad in the past,

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Speaker 3: whether some other aggrieved parties within the administration that speaking

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Speaker 3: to the President ill of Canada. But I agree with

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Speaker 3: you in some sense, it just doesn't make sense that

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Speaker 3: here We've had peaceful, cooperative relations with this great neighbor

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Speaker 3: to the north of US for so many decades, and

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Speaker 3: yet we're jeopardizing that with these trade wars.

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Speaker 2: One final question, I mentioned Davenport, Iowa, the first district

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Speaker 2: of Iowa, where the congresswoman is fighting for her life.

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Speaker 2: What is your counsel to Republican House of Representative types

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Speaker 2: on the precipice of losing their seats, what should they

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Speaker 2: do on trade?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think they really have to speak their constituents

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Speaker 3: about how in certain ways they differ from the president.

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Speaker 3: Once again, in the Midwest farm states, they've been hammered

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Speaker 3: with foreign retaliation against our agricultural exports. So American farmers

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Speaker 3: are really suffering, and so they have to offer some

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Speaker 3: sort of promise that there's a better days ahead in

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Speaker 3: terms of the ability of the US farmers to export

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Speaker 3: to other countries, and we're just not seeing it under

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Speaker 3: this administration.

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Speaker 2: Where in God's day is the update to Against the Tide?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly are you slacking off?

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Speaker 2: Douggerwin? When do we get the next three chapters of

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Speaker 2: Against the Tide?

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure, but I've got another book called Free

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Speaker 3: Trade under Fire. If there's any time free trade has

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Speaker 3: been under fire that one's due for a revision.

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Speaker 2: Very good, Douglas Irwin, thank you so much, just wonderful,

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Speaker 2: generous of your time. This morning, he is at Dartmouth