WEBVTT - Middle East Braces For Iran's Next Move; Countdown to VP Debate

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, we begin with an update on the fighting in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. Israel has carried out its first airstrike

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<v Speaker 2>on Central Bay Route in the nearly year long conflict,

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<v Speaker 2>coming days after Israel's military killed the longtime leader of Hezbola,

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<v Speaker 2>Hassan Nasrala. David Wood is a senior Lebanon analyst at

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<v Speaker 2>the International Crisis Group.

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<v Speaker 3>There's been an increasing sense in Lebanon that this is

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<v Speaker 3>becoming not just a war between Israel and Hezbalalah, but

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<v Speaker 3>a war between Israel and Lebanon. And there was an

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<v Speaker 3>attack at a place called a Cola intersection, which is

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<v Speaker 3>not in the southern suburbs of Bedutz, which are considered

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<v Speaker 3>largely a stronghold, shall we say, Hesbala and its supporters,

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<v Speaker 3>so quite seriously, Lebanese from all different communities and political

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<v Speaker 3>persuasions used this intersection free in normal times. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>really another really scary escalation in the conflict and makes

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<v Speaker 3>people feel that there's increasingly nowhere left that's safe in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 4>During this war.

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<v Speaker 2>That was David Wood's senior Lebanon analyst at the International

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<v Speaker 2>Crisis Group. In just over a week, intensified Israeli strikes

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon have killed seven high ranking commanders and officials

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<v Speaker 2>from Hesbalat well Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>On the campaign trail, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>have been putting a focus on immigration. The Vice president

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<v Speaker 1>held a rally in Las Vegas last night.

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<v Speaker 5>Earlier this year, we had a chance to pass the

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<v Speaker 5>toughest bipartisan border security bill in decades, and Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 5>takes the bill because he thought that that bill it

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<v Speaker 5>passed would hurt him and he'd prefer to run on

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<v Speaker 5>a problem instead of fixing a problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris also told the Vegas crowd she's all in

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<v Speaker 1>for another debate with Donald Trump, and now the former

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<v Speaker 1>president says the border is a problem because of Harris.

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<v Speaker 6>What she's done is a total disqualifier.

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<v Speaker 4>She should be disqualified.

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<v Speaker 7>She should resign the vice presidency and go home to California.

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<v Speaker 6>She is by you know, she's really destroyed it.

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<v Speaker 1>At a rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump also slammed the

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<v Speaker 1>Vice president for holding fundraisers in California. Over the weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>Harris raised about fifty five million dollars at events in

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<v Speaker 1>Los Angeles and San Francisco. Trump attended his own Silicon

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<v Speaker 1>Valley fundraiser earlier this month and Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>The vice presidential candidates get the spotlight tomorrow night, when

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<v Speaker 2>Republican JD. Vance and Democrat Tim Walls meet for their

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<v Speaker 2>debate hosted by CBS News in New York. Republican Congressman

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<v Speaker 2>Tom Emmer of Minnesota has been helping Vance prepare to

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<v Speaker 2>face his home States governor.

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<v Speaker 6>I've known Tim oh probably since he was first elected

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<v Speaker 6>almost twenty years ago, and I worked with him directly

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<v Speaker 6>for four years. I spent the last month just going

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<v Speaker 6>back all of his old stuff to get his phrases down,

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<v Speaker 6>his mannerisms, that sort of thing. My job was to

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<v Speaker 6>be able to play Tim Walls eight evans knows what

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<v Speaker 6>he's going to see.

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<v Speaker 2>Minnesota Congressman Tom Emmer was a guest on ABC's This

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<v Speaker 2>Week Heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. For full coverage of

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<v Speaker 2>the CBS News vice presidential debate, catch the simulcast on

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<v Speaker 2>a special edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power that starts

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<v Speaker 2>tomorrow night at eight pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Radio and television.

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<v Speaker 1>Well Nathan Key, Industry and government officials are urging US

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<v Speaker 1>DOC workers and their employers to avoid a strike at

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<v Speaker 1>East and Gulf Coast ports. The US Maritime Alliance, a

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<v Speaker 1>group representing ocean carriers and poor and terminal operators, and

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<v Speaker 1>the International Longshoreman's Association have no talks planned before their

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<v Speaker 1>contract expires at the end of today. President Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>said he would not intervene in any dock workers' strike,

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<v Speaker 1>he told reporters, resolving the dispute as a matter for

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<v Speaker 1>collective bargaining.

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<v Speaker 2>Turning the markets this morning, Karen, it is a huge

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<v Speaker 2>rally to start the week in Asia. Stocks in China

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<v Speaker 2>surged eight and a half percent. Three of China's largest

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<v Speaker 2>cities relaxed rules for home buyers, while the central Bank

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<v Speaker 2>also moved to lower mortgage rates.

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<v Speaker 1>Well Nathan, Today marks the final trading session of the

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<v Speaker 1>third quarter, with equities surviving was traditionally their toughest stretch

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. We get details from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.

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<v Speaker 8>Investors expect the rally to keep running in October despite

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<v Speaker 8>a contentious presidential election campaign, shifting federal reserve policy, and

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<v Speaker 8>fears of a pending recession. The S and P five

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<v Speaker 8>hundred index had its third straight winning week and is

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<v Speaker 8>up five point one percent in the third quarter, putting

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<v Speaker 8>it on track for its best start to a year

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<v Speaker 8>since nineteen ninety seven, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 8>It has also pushed the benchmark's market cap above fifty

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<v Speaker 8>trillion dollars for the first time. And it all happened

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<v Speaker 8>in September, which historically is the stock market's worst month.

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<v Speaker 8>In New York.

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<v Speaker 2>Charlie Bloomberg Radio, Okay, Charlie, thank you. In Europe, it's

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<v Speaker 2>a tough day for Stillantis. Those shares are down more

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<v Speaker 2>than twelve percent. The jeep maker has slashed its profit

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<v Speaker 2>margin forecast for the year and Stillantis plans to dial

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<v Speaker 2>back production and spend more on promotional incentives in a

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<v Speaker 2>slowing and more competitive automotive market.

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<v Speaker 1>And Nathan Ashton Martin shares are down more than twenty

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<v Speaker 1>two percent. The luxury car maker is lowering its guidance

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<v Speaker 1>for the year at blame supply chain disruption and we

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<v Speaker 1>demand in China.

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<v Speaker 4>Karen, let's turn our attention now to space.

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<v Speaker 1>Freedom.

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<v Speaker 2>SpaceX on a big group, so I'll capture.

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<v Speaker 6>Confirmed Crew nine now board the International Space Station and

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<v Speaker 6>joining Expedition seventy.

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<v Speaker 2>Two, SpaceX launched a two person crew to the International

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<v Speaker 2>Space Station, the start of a mission to bring home

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<v Speaker 2>two NASA astronauts have been stuck in orbit after flying

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<v Speaker 2>to the space station on Boeing Starliner spacecraft. NASA astronaut

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<v Speaker 2>Nick Hag and Russian cosmonaut Alexander Gorbanoff entered the ISS

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<v Speaker 2>late yesterday, and Hague thanked the team for getting them

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<v Speaker 2>to the station safely, coming.

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<v Speaker 9>Through the hatch and seeing all the smiles, and as

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<v Speaker 9>much as I've laughed and cried in the last ten minutes,

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<v Speaker 9>I know it's going to be an amazing expedition, so

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<v Speaker 9>I'm really looking forward to get him to work up here.

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<v Speaker 4>That was NASA's Nick Haig.

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<v Speaker 2>The pair had two empty seats next to them that

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<v Speaker 2>astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sonny Williams are going to fill

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<v Speaker 2>when the spacecraft returns to Earth next year. The Crew

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<v Speaker 2>nine flight was meant to have a four person crow,

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<v Speaker 2>but NASA removed two crew members to make room for

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<v Speaker 2>the Starliner duo after technical failures with Boeing's spacecraft.

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<v Speaker 5>Good.

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<v Speaker 1>It's time now for a look at some of the

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<v Speaker 1>other stories making news in New York and around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael

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<v Speaker 1>good Morning, Good.

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<v Speaker 10>Morning, Caaren. North Carolina officials are pledging to get more

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<v Speaker 10>water and other supplies to storm damaged areas after Hurricane

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<v Speaker 10>Aleen left a trail of destruction across the US Southeast.

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<v Speaker 10>Authorities have struggle to get supplies to isolated areas, including

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<v Speaker 10>the city of Ashville. Massive rains brought by Helene left

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<v Speaker 10>many people stranded or homeless around the region. The death

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<v Speaker 10>toll from the storm topped ninety people across several states.

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<v Speaker 10>Many local officials, like Buncombe County Manager Avril Pinder, say

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<v Speaker 10>that they're doing what they can to get help where

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<v Speaker 10>it's needed in their community.

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<v Speaker 4>We need food and we need water.

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<v Speaker 11>My staff has been making every request possible to the

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<v Speaker 11>state for support, and we've been working with every single

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<v Speaker 11>organization that has reached out.

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<v Speaker 10>Millions remain without lights from Florida to Indiana. Duke Energy

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<v Speaker 10>spokesman Bill Norton says restoring power will be a multi

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<v Speaker 10>day project.

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<v Speaker 8>We're going to have entire substations that were underwater need

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<v Speaker 8>to be repaired, some cases fully rebuilt.

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<v Speaker 10>Mean while forecasters say a new tropical depression in the

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<v Speaker 10>Eastern Atlantic Ocean could become a hurricane by midweek. New

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<v Speaker 10>York City Mayor Eric Adams spent the weekend visiting churches

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<v Speaker 10>as the ongoing criminal case against them canes. Adams received

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<v Speaker 10>a standing ovation and a bronx church Sunday. However, calls

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<v Speaker 10>for Adams to resign grow louder. On Friday, he surrendered

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<v Speaker 10>to authorities and was slapped with a five count indictment.

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<v Speaker 10>He stands accused of bribery, wire fraud, and accepting the

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<v Speaker 10>legal campaign donations. However, Adams told ABC seventh Sunday he

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<v Speaker 10>is not resigning.

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<v Speaker 12>While the attorney's handed the due process, I'm going to

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<v Speaker 12>handle the management of this city.

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<v Speaker 10>The mayor's enter circle is employing his police commissioner, health commissioner,

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<v Speaker 10>and school's chancellor have all stepped down or will soon.

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<v Speaker 10>He was a Rhodes scholar who became a superstar. Songwriter, singer,

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<v Speaker 10>and actor. Chris Christopherson has died. Christofferson has a gritty

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<v Speaker 10>realism to country music with compositions like Sunday Morning, Come

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<v Speaker 10>Down and Me and Bobby McGee and this one help

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<v Speaker 10>me make it through the night.

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<v Speaker 4>Taper ribbon from your hair.

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<v Speaker 10>As in Actually he was a leading man opposite Barbara

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<v Speaker 10>streisand and a star is born. A family spokeswoman says

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<v Speaker 10>Christofferson died at his home in Hawaii at age eight eight.

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<v Speaker 10>Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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<v Speaker 10>want it with the Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 8>Now.

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<v Speaker 10>I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg. Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State Audie.

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<v Speaker 1>And for that we bring in John stash Hour.

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<v Speaker 4>John, good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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<v Speaker 12>Aaron Rodgers, approaching his forty first birthday, worked his way

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<v Speaker 12>back to the torn Achilles. Yesterday may have been a

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<v Speaker 12>day where he was thinking the retirement would have been

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<v Speaker 12>a good option. Had to play in the rain, got

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<v Speaker 12>sacked five times, hit fourteen times. Rogers couldn't get his

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<v Speaker 12>jets into the end zonly had thirteen penalties.

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<v Speaker 4>They lost to Denver ten to nine.

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<v Speaker 12>The game end with a missed fifty yard field goal

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<v Speaker 12>by Greg Zerwine.

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<v Speaker 4>The Jets coach Robert Sala sloppy, a.

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<v Speaker 7>Lot of preestut penalties. You know, they're already a good defense,

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<v Speaker 7>and we made it. We made it easier for him

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<v Speaker 7>with just a lack of execution. We had opportunities for

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<v Speaker 7>some goal from the one. We've got to be able

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<v Speaker 7>to put it in. Didn't. Had the ball twice with

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<v Speaker 7>a chance to win, didn't.

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<v Speaker 4>Jets now two and two.

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<v Speaker 12>They played next Sunday in London against Minnesota, who's four

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<v Speaker 12>and OH, led by the ex Jet Sam Darnold. Vikings

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<v Speaker 12>had a four touchdown lead at green Bay ended up

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<v Speaker 12>winning by two points. Buffalo last night was looking to

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<v Speaker 12>go to four and OH lost in Baltimore thirty five

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<v Speaker 12>to ten. The Patriots lost thirty to thirteen at San Francisco.

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<v Speaker 12>The Commanders impressive winning at Arizona forty two to fourteen.

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<v Speaker 12>The Mets are in Atlanta, but this afternoons regular season

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<v Speaker 12>ending doublehead are both teams in the same situation. Win

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<v Speaker 12>one game today and they're in the playoffs if a

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<v Speaker 12>team loses, both Arizona gets in. Mets won five nothing

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<v Speaker 12>in Milwaukee behind David Peterson. The Yankees finished with a

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<v Speaker 12>six to four win over Pittsburgh. The Yanks of the

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<v Speaker 12>ALS one seed. They'll start the postseason Saturday in the

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<v Speaker 12>Bronx against either Baltimore or Kansas City. There hasn't been

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<v Speaker 12>a triple crown winner. In the Ash Relations nineteen thirty

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<v Speaker 12>seven show, Hey Otani came closed, so Toani ended up

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<v Speaker 12>with fifty four home runs fifty nine stolen bases. In Brooklyn,

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<v Speaker 12>the Liberty won Game one of their playoff series with

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<v Speaker 12>Las Vegas. Breonna Stewart scored thirty four points. In Montreal,

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<v Speaker 12>the US won the President's Cup Golf with a tenth

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<v Speaker 12>time in a row.

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<v Speaker 4>Johns stash Allurer Bloomberg Sports, Karen.

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<v Speaker 12>And Nathan.

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<v Speaker 10>Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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<v Speaker 10>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 10>Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 4>This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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<v Speaker 2>Investors are getting ready to close out the third quarter

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<v Speaker 2>with tensions in the Middle East and along Eastern Gulf

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<v Speaker 2>Coast ports top of mind. So what should be top

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<v Speaker 2>of mind for you as we get set for the

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<v Speaker 2>final quarter of twenty twenty four. Let's bring in Lori

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<v Speaker 2>Calvcina for a look at this market, Head of US

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<v Speaker 2>Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets with us in our

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Interactive Brookers Studios this.

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<v Speaker 4>Morning, LORI, good morning.

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<v Speaker 8>Uh.

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<v Speaker 2>We look at futures giving back just a little bit

0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.320
<v Speaker 2>this morning, but despite all the risks, I just pointed

0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.880
<v Speaker 2>out S and P five hundreds poist to end this

0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.840
<v Speaker 2>quarter up five percent, but this headline risk cloud the outlook.

0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:14.520
<v Speaker 11>Well, thanks for having me as always, Nathan. Look, I

0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:17.559
<v Speaker 11>think if you look at you know, indicators like the VIX,

0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:19.560
<v Speaker 11>like the t DEX, they are starting to creep up

0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:21.640
<v Speaker 11>a little bit. So we don't think the market is

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.440
<v Speaker 11>being too complacent about the risks that are growing. But

0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.680
<v Speaker 11>one of the things I find myself saying to investors

0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:29.920
<v Speaker 11>recently is we can't live in the tails when we're

0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:33.480
<v Speaker 11>thinking about our equity market outlook going forward. And I

0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.440
<v Speaker 11>think that's a lesson we've all had to really learn

0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.839
<v Speaker 11>in recent years that the market does look at these things.

0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:39.960
<v Speaker 11>They do, you know, price them in in their own ways,

0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 11>often with positioning trades underneath the surface. But if you

0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:47.480
<v Speaker 11>put those sort of tail risks aside, the reasonably you know,

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.480
<v Speaker 11>sort of thinking about a good economy next year, inflation

0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:54.040
<v Speaker 11>continuing to moderate, earning's growth continuing to be strong. That's

0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.880
<v Speaker 11>supportive of all PE multiples, and additional you know, gains

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:58.839
<v Speaker 11>in the equity market next year. So I think it's

0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.679
<v Speaker 11>right for markets to be watching these things out of

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.200
<v Speaker 11>the side of its eyes, but not overly reacting in

0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:04.640
<v Speaker 11>the moment.

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.720
<v Speaker 2>So what should investors be focusing on most as we

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 2>head into this fourth quarter?

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:12.880
<v Speaker 11>So I think earning season is going to be pivotal,

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 11>and it's interesting we've already started to get some questions there.

0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:18.280
<v Speaker 11>I really think that investors are going to be looking

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.920
<v Speaker 11>for companies to get a sense of where corporate confidence

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:24.000
<v Speaker 11>levels are and the feedback loop into the labor market.

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 11>I think that we're still, unfortunately just debating whether or

0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 11>not the economy is going to sort of tip into

0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.160
<v Speaker 11>something more difficult. There's still a lot of concerns about

0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 11>the labor market. I think that the FED cuts, it's

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:40.360
<v Speaker 11>really important to have those underway. But at the same time,

0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:43.240
<v Speaker 11>people are continuing to talk about the long and variable lags.

0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 11>So I think that companies are really going to be

0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.480
<v Speaker 11>in focus and what they're saying about their own confidence levels,

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.440
<v Speaker 11>what they're doing on Capex and what they're doing in

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:52.200
<v Speaker 11>regards to the labor market. I think that's going to

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 11>be crucial in coming weeks.

0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 2>In terms of what you're hearing from corporate so far.

0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.240
<v Speaker 2>What do they want to see from the FED? Are

0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:02.200
<v Speaker 2>they looking for low and steady? Are they looking for

0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 2>the FED to deliver something bigger?

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.199
<v Speaker 11>I don't know that I'm getting a clear sense of,

0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 11>you know, companies wanting big cuts. I think it was

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.439
<v Speaker 11>important just to get the cuts started and to understand

0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.839
<v Speaker 11>what the direction of travel is. I think there is

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 11>a sense that it's going to take some time to

0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 11>really see the cuts work their way into the system.

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 11>So obviously, you know, I think maybe bigger cuts, you know,

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 11>maybe you reduce the amount of time that's needed. But

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 11>it's funny because I have actually, you know, sort of

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 11>been poking, you know, with certain individuals and companies on

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 11>this question. You know, what is really what what are

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 11>you looking for? Right, whether it's regarding interest rates, whether

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.200
<v Speaker 11>it's regarding the election. I think it was just the

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:43.440
<v Speaker 11>need to get the cuts underway, and I think it's

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.560
<v Speaker 11>the passage of the election itself that people want to see.

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I do want to ask you about the election

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.400
<v Speaker 2>as well. There's so much uncertainty surrounding that such a

0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.120
<v Speaker 2>tight race does it make it difficult not just for

0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 2>you as equity strategist, but for these companies to game

0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 2>out how things could go depending on who wins the race.

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 4>Got about a minute last.

0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.680
<v Speaker 11>Yes and no. Look, I think that companies, you know,

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:08.200
<v Speaker 11>there's a sense of they want to know what the

0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:09.800
<v Speaker 11>lay of the land is and they want to know

0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 11>what they're dealing with. But the reality is that if

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 11>you look at how equity markets perform under either a

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.440
<v Speaker 11>Republican sweep or a Democratic president with a split Congress,

0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 11>those are the two best historical scenarios for the stock

0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 11>market in the past. So, you know, I'm not getting

0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 11>a clear sense of you know, polic aaa policy. B.

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.840
<v Speaker 11>I do think tax policy is in focus, but I

0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 11>really do again, just think it's wanting to know what

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:30.880
<v Speaker 11>we're dealing with.

0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories

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<v Speaker 4>And I'm Nathan Hager.

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